And just like that the off-season is over and a new NFL season is kicking off on Thursday evening with the defending Champions hosting the Detroit Lions.
Things have changed in the NFL, as they do every year, but the Kansas City Chiefs will still be there or thereabouts when it comes to winning yet another Championship. Ruling them out of the AFC Championship Game would be a mistake considering they have made it to that Game in all five years since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting Quarter Back.
In saying that, the AFC looks loaded this season with the East looking like the Division that could provide at least three PlayOff teams. The Buffalo Bills were embarrassed in their last game, a PlayOff home defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals, but they had to deal with a lot at the end of last season and Josh Allen is unlikely to be making as many mistakes as he was putting on the board at the end of last season.
Aaron Rodgers joins the New York Jets and that is a huge upgrade for a team that already has a solid Defensive unit, while MY Miami Dolphins will go as far as Tua Tagovailoa's health with carry him. Mike White is a good looking understudy for the Dolphins, but Tagovailoa is the key after suffering multiple concussion issues last season and the tough schedule to start does make things difficult for Miami right out of the gate.
New England will make up a tough Division, while teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to build on last season. Both are still likely to be short of the very best in the AFC, including the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow looking for revenge after a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
The NFC might not be as strong from top to bottom as the AFC, but there are quality teams around and the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers may continue to lead the way.
An injury to Brock Purdy made the NFC Championship Game something of a damp squib, but Nick Bosa has signed a shiny new contract with the 49ers and Purdy will be back to lead the team at Quarter Back. This should mean the 49ers are once again amongst the contenders to win it all, while the Philadelphia Eagles came up a little short in the Super Bowl, but look retooled to go again too.
The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions might be the closest contenders to those top two NFC teams, while the Los Angeles Rams will be better if they can remain healthier than they did when trying to defend the Super Bowl crown they had won the season before last. However, a number of the leading names from last season look a lot weaker now and it would be something of a surprise if the Eagles and 49ers do not meet in the Championship Game for a second year in a row.
In saying all this, the NFL has a tendency to throw up a surprise or two every year and it will be interesting to see how the 'script' has been written for 2023.
Last year it was Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks, and there are a couple of teams that look capable of a big bounce back year.
One is led by a former Seattle Quarter Back in the Denver Broncos, especially with Sean Payton back on the sidelines as a Head Coach, but the AFC West is loaded and nothing will come easy for the team with two games against the Champions and others against Miami and the New York Jets just before the Bye.
The Cleveland Browns look another team who can turn around their losing record from 2022, especially now Deshaun Watson has had more time getting back into the groove after missing over a year of the League. And a well Coached Tennessee Titans should also make some strides after a 7-10 record, but both are in the AFC and that is tough sledging throughout the season.
An element that may not change in 2023 is having a team with a losing record winning the NFC South after Tampa Bay did so with an 8-9 record last season. All four teams are still transitioning, but Derek Carr looks to have enough left in the tank to perhaps guide the New Orleans Saints to the Divisional crown after being traded from the Las Vegas Raiders.
There are always twists and turns in the NFL and that is what brings the fans and spectators back every year- 'Any Given Sunday' and all that!
Every week there is drama throughout the League, especially for Fantasy players, and this looks to be another strong season set to begin with Thursday Night Kick Off.
Week 1 Picks will be added to the thread below, but it will all begin with an underdog on the spread.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Recent seasons have seen the Kansas City Chiefs at the very forefront of the NFL and having the AFC Championship Game played at Arrowhead Stadium has become an annual event.
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have represented the AFC in three of the last four Super Bowls played and they have picked up two titles in that time, including last year in Arizona as Kansas City narrowly got the better of Reid's former team, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Winning the Super Bowl comes with the honour of being able to open the next season and the Kansas City Chiefs will be doing that on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 of the 2023 season. They will be hoisting another Championship banner and there will not be many people out there looking to oppose the Kansas City Chiefs from winning it all again next February, even in the loaded class of the AFC.
Once again changes have been made, but Patrick Mahomes is still here and so is Andy Reid which makes the Chiefs formidable. A new Offensive Co-Ordinator should not take too long in getting in with the schemes and the Offensive Line has been bolstered in order to offer Mahomes that much more time to make his big time plays in the backfield.
No one will consider the skill players around Patrick Mahomes to be of 'elite' level, but the Chiefs have a very strong scouting system and they seem to be able to plug the gaps. Last season they lost Tyreek Hill, but the passing game did not miss much of a beat without their speedy Receiver and Mahomes will bring the best out of those around him.
One elite player the Quarter Back would have been able to rely on is Travis Kelce, but he suffered a knee injury on the eve of the new season and is considered doubtful for the opener. At the moment the biggest concern for Kansas City is hoping Kelce has avoided a long-term ACL issue, but that looks to be the case even if it means the Chiefs have to go in a little short-handed against a team expected to make major strides in the coming year.
It has been a long time since the Detroit Lions were considered genuine contenders in the NFC, but Head Coach Dan Campbell deserves a lot of credit for changing the mindset of this team. He is a former Lion player and Campbell has really brought a culture change to Detroit and the team won eight of their last ten games to finish 9-8 in the 2022 season and only missing out on the PlayOffs because of a Week 4 loss to the Seattle Seahawks who snuck through on the head to head.
There is so much to like about the Lions on both sides of the ball and Jared Goff has embraced his time as Quarter Back of the team after arriving in a trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams and a Super Bowl ring. He has some talent alongside him behind this powerful Detroit Offensive Line, although the Lions will be hoping that another Receiver can step up alongside Amon-Ra St Brown, who looks like he will be healthy to go in the season opener.
Jared Goff is expected to have time behind the Offensive Line, especially as Kansas City will be without Chris Jones who is still holding out in his bid to have a new contract written for him. While Jones has admitted he could play immediately once said contract is signed, it is unlikely he suits up for Week 1 and that should help the Lions in what could be a potential shoot out.
Giving the Quarter Back time should see Goff have a big game, but the Kansas City Chiefs will believe they can do the same with Patrick Mahomes behind Center, even with Travis Kelce trending towards missing out.
And you can understand why the Chiefs will be confident when thinking Andy Reid is 9-1 in Week 1 games as Head Coach of the team, while Kansas City have averaged 33 points per game in opening games since 2017. They scored 44 points in a crushing road win at Arizona twelve months ago and it is tough to oppose the Chiefs in this situation.
However, Dan Campbell is someone who will have his Detroit team ready to compete after the slow start that cost them in 2022 and the Head Coach is someone who inspires the Lions. They ended the season in strong form as the road underdog and there is every chance that Detroit can do enough on both sides of the ball to avoid the blowout in this opening game.
Super Bowl Champions have a very strong outright record in the opening game of the new season, going 13-4 in the last seventeen, but the last two have been split 1-1. In both, the road team earned the cover too and the Detroit Lions can make it three in a row for the 'spoiler' heading into town to upset the Champions.
It is unlikely that the Lions win outright, but they are expected to be competitive and that makes the points being offered appealing enough. The line has shrunk in light of the news about Travis Kelce, but is still above the key number 3 and that could be enough of a start for Detroit to keep this one close.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Every year there seems to be a shorter than expected road favourite that catches the eye, but also makes you wonder if Vegas know more than they are letting on about the teams competing.
After seeing their win total go from eleven in 2020 to nine in 2021 to then just four in 2022, the Indianapolis Colts they had to make changes. The biggest changes are at Head Coach and Quarter Back as the Colts turn to Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson in those respective roles.
Veteran players have not really worked like the Colts would have hoped in the Quarter Back position and Matt Ryan really struggled last year. Picking Anthony Richardson fourth overall and as the third Quarter Back selected from the opening four Picks will put some pressure on his shoulders, especially making his first start in the NFL.
However, many feel the pairing with a Head Coach who worked with Jalen Hurts last season can only be a positive for Richardson, while there still some decent skill players to work with in the passing game. Of course, Anthony Richardson will be able to use his legs too and this Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive unit is solid, but not impenetrable.
One disappointment for Richardson is that Jonathan Taylor will be missing in the backfield as it would have helped open up the passing lanes a little more. The Running Back and the running game in general was not much of a factor in the two games against the Jaguars last season, but you have to believe that the scrambling ability of the new Quarter Back will just aid that, especially compared to what Matt Ryan was able to offer.
Moving the chains is always a challenge for a rookie Quarter Back making his first start and Jacksonville will likely look to create confusion for Richardson. In saying that, the new Head Coach should help as the Colts look to take down the AFC South Champions from 2022.
Being the surprising Champions in what was a weak Division will have raised expectations around Jacksonville and especially as they won a Play Off game last year too. Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Head Coach was clearly a good fit for Trevor Lawrence who had over 4000 passing yards in his second season in the NFL.
The Jaguars Offensive Line is perhaps still a question mark, and they will be challenged by the Colts Defensive Line, but Trevor Lawrence has been given plenty of solid looking skill players to complete the Offensive unit. The Jaguars can run the ball, and establishing that would really open up the Colts Secondary to the passing game run by Trevor Lawrence, who has Calvin Ridley ready to compete again.
An Offensive balance can be very important and there is a feeling that the Jaguars Receivers will have too much for the Colts Secondary in this opener.
Jacksonville started off very slowly last season and you have to believe that all involved with the team will be looking for much better this season. The momentum that was picked up down the stretch in 2022 is going to be key for the Jaguars as they look to open with a road win, and they will need all of that as they look to beat the Colts on the road for the first time in six years.
Anthony Richardson is likely going to surprise teams with the Coaching behind him, but Trevor Lawrence can out-duel him with more players around him that can make the difference in this game.
Nothing is ever as easy as it looks in the NFL, but the Jaguars winning this one the road looks the play.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: The NFC South looks like it is an open Division going into the 2023 season and that is largely down to the young teams that are still transitioning within. The favourites might be the New Orleans Saints, but both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will be feeling excited about the season ahead.
The Falcons will be heading into the season backing second year Quarter Back Desmond Ridder and surrounding him with some talented players on both sides of the ball. They have been helped by moving on some of their higher priced veterans and the Atlanta Falcons have to be targeting a PlayOff spot in the weaker NFC.
Much will depend on how much Ridder has grown having shown plenty of promise in limited outings in his rookie season in the NFL.
New Running Back Bijan Robinson looks like he could give the Falcons a serious punch of the backfield and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that helped the Atlanta Falcons average almost 160 yards per game on the ground. The rookie is expected to have a big season and keeping the team in front of the chains can only be good news for Desmond Ridder.
The Falcons will be expecting to establish the run in this game and it should mean their Quarter Back has time to attack the Carolina Secondary, which looks to be the weakness on the Defensive unit. Players like Kyle Pitts and Drake London should be able to make some big plays against this Secondary, while Carolina could really have a tough time if Brian Burns chooses to sit out as he awaits a new contract.
With the Atlanta Falcons expecting to be able to move the chains with some consistency, the Carolina Panthers will be under pressure to try and keep up as they look to the Overall Number 1 Pick in the Draft to lead them to successes. Bryce Young looks like he could be effective at this level, although there remain some concerns about his size at five foot ten, and there may also be one or two worries about the performance of the Offensive Line.
Another early problem for the Carolina Panthers is that the new look Receiving corps is a little banged up and they will be facing a Falcons Defensive unit which has been revamped in the off-season and with plenty of money invested.
Bryce Young will make plays, but it is a big ask for a rookie Quarter Back in a road start against a Divisional rival, especially with some of the key players on both sides of the ball potentially missing out.
The Panthers have won on their last three visits to Atlanta, but they did split the two regular season games in 2022.
This time the Atlanta Falcons look a little further down the line with their transition and Desmond Ridder can do enough to out-duel Bryce Young and help the home team win and cover.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Commanders - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams + 5.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
