NFL Week 1 Picks 2022 (September 8-12)

Much like last season, my opening NFL Picks will be a thread focusing on the selections as the 2022 season gets underway.

Next week will be a fuller thread with my thoughts on the season as well my predictions for the Super Bowl.

Week 1 Picks can be read below.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions are going to open up the 2022 season in the traditional Thursday Night Football spot.

The NFL would have been very keen to have a big game on deck to get the season underway and they could not have asked for a much better one than the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills. It is a non-Conference affair, but these are two teams that will be expecting to push for the Super Bowl crown in February and I am sure there will be plenty out there that may feel the NFL season will close with the same match up that will be played on Thursday.

Like most teams in the NFL, some changes will have been made in the off-season, but Sean McVay has to be very pleased with the majority of his World Champions returning for another shot at the big time. The decision to bring in Matthew Stafford to lead the Offensive unit proved to be the masterstroke the Rams had been searching for and the Quarter Back looks to be over his elbow issues ahead of the new season.

It is a concerning issue that Stafford has been dealing with and the real test will come in a live game and when he takes his first big hit from the Buffalo pass rushers.

However, if Matthew Stafford is as healthy as most expect, he should be able to pick up from where he left off and that should be leading the Rams efficiently from the Quarter Back position. Robert Woods may be gone, but Allen Robinson has been signed to play opposite Cooper Kupp and I think they will be able to move the chains through the air against a Buffalo Secondary that will be missing Tre'Davious White, although Jordan Poyer is expected to suit up.

Changes on the Defensive Line may have weakened the Bills a little bit more so the Rams could look to establish Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson, although Sean McVay's system is all about getting the Quarter Back comfortable. Matthew Stafford is massively experienced and I do think he is going to have a strong opening game for the Los Angeles Rams and score plenty of points.

The Rams are going to need plenty of points too when going up against the Buffalo Bills and this powerful Offensive unit that is as good as any in the NFL. Josh Allen continues to develop at Quarter Back and the Bills will still be kicking themselves for losing in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last season, especially as the Overtime loss in Kansas City came down to the toss of a coin.

As strong as the Bills are on the Offensive side of the ball, they are facing an elite Los Angeles Defensive unit and the first month of the season can see the Defensive side of the ball have a slight edge over the scoring players.

Aaron Donald has been persuaded to avoid retirement and Jalen Ramsey is still one of the elite Secondary players in the League and there is a feeling that the Rams can do enough to at least slow the Bills down somewhat.

That may be the difference in a tight and competitive game and I do think it is a surprise to see the Los Angeles Rams as the home underdog. Sean McVay has been a strong Head Coach at preparing his team for Week 1 and they have covered in each of the last five seasons on the opening weekend.

Take nothing away from Sean McDermott, who is also a very strong Head Coach that has his Buffalo team well prepared, but I do think the Rams are being underrated for the opening game of the NFL season. The Bills did win here two years ago in a very high-scoring game and they were the very slight favourite on that day, but I think the defending Champions will be looking to prove themselves as the underdog in this one and my feeling is that Matthew Stafford can just out-duel Josh Allen in the narrow upset.

I would love to have seen the spread hit the key number 3, but being given points with the Champs in their banner raising home opener seems too good to ignore, even if the public seems to be firmly in the Buffalo camp. The Bills are going to be very hard to beat for much of the regular season and I think they are a genuine Super Bowl contender, and Von Miller will want to remind his former team of his qualities, but the home team in these openers have tended to have a slight edge and I think that will be the case in Week 1 of the 2022 season.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If Tom Brady had remained in retirement instead of returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it would have been all change in the NFC South with all four teams having significant changes ahead of the 2022 season.

The Buccaneers may be the favourites in the Division with Brady leading the way, but the New Orleans Saints will remember being crowned Champions in the NFC South just two seasons ago. They have lost Sean Payton at Head Coach, which is going to hurt the New Orleans Saints, but Dennis Allen has experienced being at the helm in the NFL and I do think his time spent with the Saints should make the change a little more seamless.

It is still a big challenge for the New Orleans Saints who missed the PlayOffs for the first since 2016 when finishing with a 9-8 record. That was largely down to the uncertainty that came about when Drew Brees retired at Quarter Back, although Jameis Winston had played well enough to believe he was on the right track to lead to the Saints to the post-season before suffering a season ending ACL injury.

Jameis Winston has returned and looked pretty strong, while a huge boost for the entire New Orleans Offensive unit will be the expected return of Michael Thomas. He was one of the premier Wide Receivers in the NFL, but missed all of 2021 and could provide a boost for the Saints and the entire Offensive unit.

Throwing against the Atlanta Falcons won't be very easy, but I do think Jameis Winston can have a strong game targeting Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield and Thomas when he finds room in the middle of the field. The Quarter Back is missing a key part of the Offensive Line, but I am not sure the Falcons will be able to generate enough pressure up front to worry Winston and he can move the chains pretty efficiently.

Despite the loss of Sean Payton, the Saints do look stronger than the Atlanta Falcons who finished with a 7-10 record last season, but who have decided to trade away long-term Quarter Back Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Marcus Mariota has not been a regular starter in the NFL in recent years, but he has been tasked with leading the Falcons while their Third Round Draft selection Desmond Ridder continues to develop behind the Quarter Back.

Dennis Allen may not have had the best of times as the Head Coach of the now Las Vegas Raiders, but he did do a strong job with the New Orleans Defensive unit in his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator here. His Saints team are expected to continue to be dominant on this side of the ball and they have an effective pass rush which can make the difference in this Divisional Game to open the 2022 season.

Games between the Saints and Falcons have tended to be competitive, but New Orleans have won on their last four visits here including in Week 18 last season. The Saints have covered on each of those occasions and they have regularly covered more often than not when set as the road favourite.

On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons went 0-4 against the spread as the home underdog with Arthur Smith as Head Coach and I do think Winston and the Saints can make the plays to cover this number.

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather looks to be the big equaliser on Sunday afternoon as Week 1 of the NFL gets underway, but I do think the San Francisco 49ers would have some questions to answer even in better conditions. A wet day will make it very difficult for Trey Lance to throw the ball at Quarter Back, especially with the lack of experience he has in leading the way.

The pressure will build on Trey Lance now that Jimmy Garoppolo has signed a contract to remain with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022. Most expected the Quarter Back to have been traded away, but his presence is a worry for Lance, especially as Jimmy Garoppolo has reached the Super Bowl with the 49ers and is coming off a season in which he guided San Francisco to twelve wins last time out.

A narrow loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game will have stung, and it was a surprise to see the 49ers decide to make the change at Quarter Back.

Trey Lance does not have ideal conditions to perform, but he can run the ball much more efficiently than Jimmy Garoppolo and that is likely going to be a key in Week 1. The Quarter Back also benefits from facing the Chicago Bears who look to be in the midst of a massive rebuild and the Monsters of the Midway are not nearly as intimidating as some of the units that have operated for the Bears in recent years.

George Kittle could be missing, but Trey Lance has been given plenty of talent to get the best out of him and I do think the 49ers schemes should see them move the ball pretty well, even in the wet and rainy conditions expected.

Things are likely to be much tougher for Justin Fields as the Chicago Bears Quarter Back considering how little support he has around him on both the Offensive and Defensive units. The Offensive Line has issues and I expect those to be highlighted by the pressure the 49ers are expected to generate up front, while San Francisco's Defensive Line should be much stouter against the run if Fields decides to use his legs.

A new Coaching staff going up against Kyle Shanahan and his staff looks a mismatch to open the season, while Justin Fields has a lot to prove in tough circumstances considering he finished with a 3-7 record against the spread in his rookie season. The Bears were also 0-5 against the spread as the home underdog in 2021, while the 49ers are 6-4 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of seasons.

This is a huge spread for someone as inexperienced as Trey Lance to cover, but I do think he is surrounded by a lot more support than Justin Fields in Chicago. With a team that can use short passing to get the ball into the hands of their talented skill players, Trey Lance can also take advantage of the weaker Chicago Defensive front and can use his legs to move the 49ers into a position to cover.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets Pick: There was some controversy around Quarter Back Zach Wilson in the off-season, but that was mainly about his off-field preferences and the New York Jets are very confident in their second year signal caller. However, we won't know how much Wilson has improved for a few weeks as another injury means more time on the sidelines and the ball will be given to veteran Joe Flacco.

He is best known for being the Quarter Back to win the last of the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowls, but that game was played at the end of the 2012 season and Joe Flacco is little more than a backup these days. Motivation will not be difficult to find against his former team, but Joe Flacco will be the first to remind the Jets how well Baltimore are prepared under John Harbaugh who is looking for a bounce back season.

A disappointing 8-9 season was down to injuries, but the Baltimore Ravens have gone in hard in the Draft and Lamar Jackson will also be playing with a point to prove. A contract extension has not been agreed, but Jackson has made sure he has bet on himself and he is going to be determined to have a much better season than 2021 when injury and lack of consistency let him down.

The Interceptions were a big problem for Lamar Jackson in 2021, but he had led the Ravens to an 8-5 record before missing the final four games with injury. Better health for his Offensive Line will be encouraging, and they look to have made some solid decisions in the Draft to expect the Baltimore Ravens to be challenging in the AFC North.

The New York Jets look to be improved too, but I think it is a big test to shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensively and I do think the game is going to come down to how many points Joe Flacco can help the Jets produce.

I do think the Draft has helped the Jets improve Offensively, but you have to believe that the Ravens will have a perfect plan to deal with Joe Flacco. That should see Baltimore slow down the Jets for long enough to give Lamar Jackson the chance to not only win, but to cover on the road.

The Jets finished last season with a 3-5 record against the spread as the home underdog.

Baltimore also have a strong Week 1 record with John Harbaugh showing he can be tough to beat when given time to prepare, and the Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams.

My only real concern is that the Baltimore Ravens have not been a great road favourite to back in recent years, but I think they can bring in a solid game plan to close out Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson can begin what I believe will be a big season for him.

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Trading away your starting Quarter Back who has won a Super Bowl for your franchise and taken you to another is always going to be a difficult moment for any team and their fans. That is the situation for the Seattle Seahawks going into the 2022 season and many consider them amongst the worst teams in the NFL, although Head Coach Pete Carroll is going to want to extract everything he can get from the players on the roster.

The fans may get a clear reminder of the decision the team has made in the off-season immediately as they are facing a returning Russell Wilson with his new team, the Denver Broncos. After searching for a Peyton Manning replacement ever since he won the Super Bowl and rode off into the sunset, the Broncos finally have a player that can compete with Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.

Make no mistake, it is a huge challenge for Russell Wilson and the veteran will still have something to prove as some believe his best days may be behind him. At least with the Broncos he has a Defensive unit that can stand up if needed, while Wilson goes into a very good situation when you think of the Receiving corps at his disposal.

The Denver Offensive Line has a couple of injuries to deal with, but this is a much stronger Line than the one that Russell Wilson was playing behind in Seattle and I do think that will help the veteran in what is a bounce back year for him and the Broncos. Recent years have been difficult for Denver behind some dodgy Quarter Back play and they have not had a winning record since 2016, the season following Peyton Manning's retirement when Denver missed the PlayOffs behind a 9-7 record.

That will mean there is some pressure on Russell Wilson considering what Denver gave away to get him and it will be an emotional opener for the Quarter Back at the Stadium he called home ever since moving into the NFL. On the other hand, Wilson should be well accustomed to the kind of noise levels that the 12th Man will make in Seattle and a transitioning team looks one he should be able to exploit.

The Seahawks finished with a 7-10 record in the NFC West last season, a Division that provided both teams for the NFC Championship Game. They have lost Bobby Wagner on the Defensive side of the ball, the last remaining Legion of Boom member, and this looks a tough season all around for Pete Carroll and his team.

In recent seasons, the Defensive numbers have been in decline and I am not sure the Seahawks will be able to reverse that, while Russell Wilson is going to know a lot about the team and their tendencies, which makes it easier for him to find the holes in the Secondary. The Defensive Line may still be solid, but Russell Wilson's movement may make it easier to establish the run for the Broncos and I do think the Wide Receivers in Denver win their battles.

So it will be up to Geno Smith to replace Russell Wilson and try and keep up with him on the scoreboard.

The former New York Jet has been the backup to Wilson in Seattle and started three games last season so the transition should not be an issue, although there is a massive drop off when it comes to levels. The Quarter Back will need the Seahawks to control the game with their running attack, but at some point he is going to have to make plays against the Denver Secondary and I think that is where the mistakes may come.

Geno Smith's Offensive Line may struggle in pass protection and I don't think he is as strong on the run as Russell Wilson has proved himself to be and it could lead to the Seahawks fans having to suffer through a Monday Night Football loss at home.

I have to respect the fact that Pete Carroll is a quality Head Coach and his record as an underdog is very impressive- the Seahawks are 16-7 against the spread in their last twenty-three games when catching points. They have also been an impressive home underdog on Monday Night Football, but I can't shake the factor of Russell Wilson's return and him knowing exactly what he is likely to see from a weaker Seattle team than the one he was a part of.

Perhaps emotions means Russell Wilson does not want to crush the Seahawks, but I am not sure the end of that partnership was as amicable as some might think and he has helped cover the spread plenty in this Stadium before. It is a big number, but I think Seattle may struggle to keep up in this one and a couple of turnovers can help Denver seal an opening win on the road.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 4 Picks 2021 (September 11-13)

SIUUUUUUUU!!!

Where else can I begin? It has to be about Cristiano Ronaldo and the return to Old Trafford after what has felt like an international break that has gone on for two months rather than two weeks.

I am fortunate enough to have a ticket to watch Ronaldo for the first time since I last saw him in a Manchester United shirt- Rome in May 2009- and I simply cannot wait. Unsurprisingly my FPL team will represent the excitement and I have activated my Wild Card far earlier than usual as I look to build on a decent, if not spectacular start to the season after three GameWeeks have been placed in the books.

First, the thoughts on the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend.

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are times when results overshadow everything and you do have to feel that is the case at Tottenham Hotspur who have secured three 1-0 Premier League wins in a row. They are the only team with a perfect record in the top flight and they are considered odds on to win this fourth fixture, but a deeper look at the actual performances suggest there has been some fortune around the results.

Winning games on the pitch is what matters, but the performances have to be sustainable and so there is work for Nuno Espirito Santo to do. He will be boosted by Harry Kane committing his short-term future to the club, but the manager will not have enjoyed the international break very much.

Three players are going to have to quarantine having represented South American nations in the international break, while both Steven Bergwijn and Heung-Min Son are doubts and could be vital losses if they cannot go this weekend.

Even then, Spurs are considered the favourites against a Crystal Palace team which is still finding its feet under new manager Patrick Vieira. The last couple of performances have been better and Vieira will have been pleased with the attacking display in the 2-2 draw at West Ham United two weeks ago, and that certainly gives Patrick Vieira something to build upon.

There have been some signs that the defensive capabilities of the Crystal Palace squad are still there even after the departure of Roy Hodgson and I do think this is a team that can pick up a positive result.

The first goal is going to be important in this opening Premier League fixture of this weekend, but I do think Crystal Palace are being underestimated. Better finishing from Manchester City and Wolves would have seen them pick up results against Spurs and I do think the latter are going to step back from the early season form unless vastly improving.

With a long injury list to deal with, I think Crystal Palace can take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur with the home supporters firmly behind them. The Eagles are unbeaten in 3 at home in all competitions against Tottenham Hotspur and they can extend that run to another game on Saturday with the attacking players looking like they can build on the performance at the London Stadium.

Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: Three Premier League games, zero points and a minus nine goal difference.

A 6-0 win over a Championship club in the League Cup Second Round.

Arsenal and Norwich City have made very similar starts to the 2021/22 season as two of the three clubs that have yet to produce a Premier League point this season. Both have also suffered a 5-0 hammering at Champions Manchester City and this is a big weekend for Arsenal and Norwich City as they look to pick up points from a better looking set of fixtures than they had to deal with in August.

The pressure is more squarely on Mikel Arteta with rumours that Arsenal are already sounding out replacements. He will be boosted by a more winnable fixture than the last two in the Premier League and the manager will also be able to call on the likes of Ben White, Thomas Partey and Nicolas Pepe this weekend which should give the Arsenal squad a boost.

They did have a strong second half of the season in the Premier League last time around and I do think Arsenal can offer more in fixtures like this rather than facing the top six clubs. The 2-0 defeat at Brentford was a huge disappointment, but Arsenal were missing key players for that one and they look healthier all around.

Norwich City have also been left pointless after being handed a start that saw them face three top five clubs from last season in August. Daniel Farke will have been pleased with some of the attacking play against Liverpool and Leicester City, but Norwich City will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to avoid a second relegation in three seasons.

I expect Arsenal to have been working on their own defensive shape over the last two weeks and having Ben White and Thomas Partey back could be key for the team. They have enough attacking quality to feel they can open up this Norwich City team who have lost their last 7 away Premier League games and I do think Arsenal are going to produce a big result to keep the wolves from the door for their manager.

The visitors should pose one or two problems, but Arsenal have beaten Norwich City 5 times in a row at home and I expect them to be able to do that again on Saturday.

Brentford v Brighton Pick: There is no love lost between the two owners of Brentford and Brighton and Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom have not really repaired their relationship. However, both have a similar way of operating their football clubs and both Brentford and Brighton will feel their methods are going to be good enough to maintain their spot in the Premier League.

Bragging rights are going to be important on Saturday and I do think both managers will be aware of the need for a positive result, perhaps even more so than usual.

In saying that, the players should be largely shielded from the issues their club's owners have with one another and all the squads are going to be focusing on is building on a positive start to the season. The two teams have both progressed in the League Cup and Brentford have earned 5 points, while Brighton have 6 points in the Premier League.

Brighton have perhaps been the stronger performers early in the season, although Graham Potter will want his team to show slightly more in the defensive areas of the pitch. The hosts might be unbeaten, but Brentford could have easily had fewer points on the board and I do think they have not been as creative in the final third as Thomas Frank may be asking.

That could leave them vulnerable in this home game, although I do think the Brentford Community Stadium will be a difficult ground for teams to visit. The home fans will give Brentford a boost, but I think Brighton's play under Graham Potter has been very encouraging and they are looking like being a creative threat much like they were last season too.

The key for Graham Potter is that the early fixtures have suggested Brighton may not be as wasteful in front of goal and they were comfortable home winners over newly promoted Watford last month. Brentford will be a tougher team to break down, especially being at home and with the early form showing they are well organised and tough to open up.

That makes this a close match and I am not surprised the layers are having a hard time separating the teams. However, I do think Brighton's early performances in the final third are encouraging enough to believe they deserve the edge and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to secure the three points.

Leicester City v Manchester City Pick: There is some real uncertainty coming out of the international break and even more so than usual for Manchester City who have seen the Brazilian FA enforce FIFA regulations that will rule Ederson and Gabriel Jesus out for this fixture.

The Premier League are trying to work things out and so the status of these two players will be determined later this week.

If Ederson is ruled out, Manchester City could be down to third choice Scott Carson to play between the sticks and that may leave them a little vulnerable. The last time Carson played, Manchester City conceded three times to Newcastle United, but breaking down the Champions won't be easy.

Manchester City have been in control of their last two Premier League matches and this Leicester City team have opened the season with some mixed performances. They were terrible in the heavy loss to West Ham United, while Leicester City were fortunate to beat Wolves in their sole home game played this season.

Brendan Rodgers may have some defensive reinforcements back in time for this one, but he will also want his Leicester City team to show a little more in the final third. Finding that balance against Manchester City is going to be very difficult, especially if Leicester City are continuing to struggle at the back.

I do expect Pep Guardiola's men to dominate the possession and they should have enough to win here even accounting for some of the players that are going to miss out. In the last two Premier League games, Manchester City have looked very strong at the back and they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium.

Games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring in recent years and 7 of the last 10 have ended with less than three goals shared out. That includes the game in the Community Shield, while the fixtures hosted by Leicester City have tended to be tight.

5 of the last 6 at the King Power Stadium have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and the feeling is that this will be another. Manchester City should end up as narrow winners on the day, but both teams may be looking to build any foundation for success on their defensive shape in this one.

Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: There has been a huge amount of excitement in the Manchester United fanbase ever since it was announced that Cristiano Ronaldo will be returning to the club and this two week international break will have felt like a lifetime for many.

The fixture is not being broadcasted in the United Kingdom, but for those fortunate to have tickets this is a much anticipated game.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have produced 7 points so far this season and the signing of Ronaldo is one that could see Manchester United really build a title challenge. Last season Manchester United only won 9 of 19 home Premier League games, but Cristiano Ronaldo's presence could see them put a few more victories on the board.

Manchester United have played well in the first month, but there is room for improvement and this is a fixture that looks a good one on paper. First off Manchester United scored seven goals against Newcastle United in the Premier League last season, while The Magpies have had a poor start to the new campaign and look vulnerable.

Steve Bruce will soon be feeling the pressure again and his team have conceded at least two goals in each of their Premier League games played. Newcastle United have been comfortably beaten by both Aston Villa and West Ham United and the chances they have allowed teams to create against them is a massive worry.

Callum Wilson may be missing too, which only makes life that much more difficult for Newcastle United, and I do think they are going to struggle to contain the hosts. There should be a really hot crowd at Old Trafford to welcome back Cristiano Ronaldo and that should give the Manchester United players a boost much like it did in the 5-1 win over Leeds United.

An early goal would create a real problem for Newcastle United and Manchester United are capable of putting them to the sword. They have won 4 in a row at Old Trafford against Newcastle United and Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of those home victories.

It feels like a match that Manchester United should control and I would expect the home team to score the goals that sees them win by a couple of goals at the very least.

Southampton v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams went into the September international break off the back of a 2-2 draw, but Southampton would have been more pleased with their result compared with West Ham United.

A lot of key players have left Southampton this summer, but they have made a decent start to the season and they will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have looked a little vulnerable at the back. However, the bigger problem for Southampton is finding the balance to contain the strong attacking play David Moyes' men have put together.

I think that gives West Ham United the edge in the match and I do think they are going to be able to create chances. In the first two Premier League games, Southampton looked a little ragged at the back as the team gets used to being without Ryan Bertrand and Jannik Vestegaard, and I do believe that gives this West Ham United team spaces to exploit.

The Hammers have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and this is a team that is playing with confidence as they sit in 2nd place in the table. The goals they are scoring makes West Ham United a very dangerous team at the moment and I do think they are going to take the game to their hosts.

Southampton may feel they can play a part in the game too, especially if they are as positive as they were at St James' Park two weeks ago. However, they have been a little inconsistent in the final third before that fixture against Newcastle United and I do think that says more about the latter than it does about Southampton.

West Ham United have a decent record at St Mary's in recent seasons and they can win for the third time in four visits. David Moyes will be hoping the September international break has not broken their momentum, and, if it hasn't, West Ham United should have enough threat in the final third to lead to the three points.

Watford v Wolves Pick: The underlying numbers have been very impressive from Wolves in the first three Premier League games played this season, but those are not enough to appease the fans. While they have played well enough to perhaps win all of their League games, Wolves have been impotent in the final third and that has led to 1-0 defeats to Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Poor finishing has been a real problem for Bruno Lage's men, but they have been creating some solid opportunities in all of the fixtures played. Defensively Wolves have looked pretty good for the most part and only a mistake from their goalkeeper cost them a positive result against Manchester United two weeks ago.

If they can continue producing these levels of performance, I do think Wolves are going to turn things around and start picking up some big results. However, they could be without Raul Jimenez this weekend to add to the attacking issues and Wolves are also visiting a ground on which Watford have enjoyed plenty of successes.

Back to back away Premier League defeats will have hurt, but Watford know it is the form at Vicarage Road which will determine whether they can avoid the drop or not. They have already won twice at home this season and that means they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions, while Watford have been reliant on strong defensive performances in those games.

They looked pretty well organised in the narrow defeat at Tottenham Hotspur two weeks ago too and I do think Watford are capable of producing a positive result as an underdog. I can't ignore the fact that Wolves are playing much better than their results suggest and they have dangerous players in their squad, but Watford haven't played badly and are clearly very comfortable in home surroundings.

Two seasons ago Watford did enough to beat Wolves at home and I think they are worth backing as the underdog with a slight start on the Asian Handicap. The first goal could be massively important in this one, but Watford have scored first in their last 17 home games in all competitions and the home underdog can produce a positive result on the day.

Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The first international break of the 2021/22 season has caused some havoc for domestic clubs around Europe and particularly for those in the Premier League who have chosen to prevent players representing their South American nations.

It means Chelsea and Aston Villa are going to be missing some key players for this Premier League fixture, while injuries across the last two weeks could also have an impact on the game.

Romelu Lukaku would be a big miss for Chelsea, but Aston Villa are missing their first choice goalkeeper and have injuries in the squad that leaves them vulnerable. Ezra Konsa may also be missing and that leaves the heart of the Aston Villa team looking short of the quality they may need to take on a Chelsea team that have opened the season with positive performances and results.

The home advantage should be more important for teams this season compared with last and Chelsea have already beaten Crystal Palace here. Aston Villa are still finding their feet without Jack Grealish and they have looked a little shaky at both ends of the field and being without Emiliano Martinez is just another blow for Dean Smith to absorb.

Danny Ings has shown he can provide goals for Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins should be available, but Chelsea are well organised defensively. They have the attacking players that can make up for any Lukaku absence and the feeling is that Chelsea will have too much for their short-handed visitors in the late Saturday kick off.

Thomas Tuchel's tactics can be a little geared towards making sure Chelsea are hard to beat, but since he took over at Stamford Bridge they have won 5 of 11 Premier League games by two or more goal margins. Defensively Chelsea should be able to contain much of what Aston Villa bring to the table and I think they have the players that can score the goals to ensure a relatively comfortable win on the day.

Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The late Sunday afternoon offering from the Premier League will see a full Elland Road having the opportunity to host one of the traditional big English clubs. After a season watching the team at home, the fans will be keen to provide a big atmosphere for the Leeds United players when they face Liverpool.

Marcelo Bielsa's men are unbeaten in 8 at Elland Road in all competitions and they have given some of the top teams something to think about in the second half of last season. Leeds United have not had the best of starts to this campaign, but they are a team that will put pressure on their opponent and they will be looking to create chances.

They will likely cause some problems for Liverpool, but Leeds United have not made the best of starts to this season from a defensive point of view. It is a worry for them when you think of the kind of chances that Liverpool have been creating and I do believe that will give the visitors the edge in this match.

When Leeds United hosted Everton, it was the team from Liverpool that created the best opportunities and I imagine The Reds will do something similar.

Even with Roberto Firmino expected to miss out, Liverpool should have the attacking threats to give Leeds United a number of problems to work out. I expect Leeds United will have some joy if Alisson is expected to sit out for Liverpool, but they are going to be without Raphinha and that does take away a real part of the threat that the home team would usually offer.

It would not be a massive surprise if both teams hit the back of the net, but the feeling is that Liverpool's attacking output early this season will give them the edge. The game here finished 1-1 last season, but Liverpool will feel they would have won that game if they showed more of a clinical edge.

That was also missing in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea two weeks ago, but Liverpool have beaten both Norwich City and Burnley pretty comfortably. Liverpool should have too much for Leeds United in this live game and they can win a game that should feature at least two goals.

Everton v Burnley Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend could be a relatively decent watch if the early season form of Everton and Burnley is anything to go by.

Everton are the ones with the points on the board, but Burnley have arguably deserved more than a single point from a home defeat to Brighton and a home draw with Leeds United. They conceded late in the draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, while Burnley have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

The hosts have made a good start under Rafael Benitez and 7 points from a possible 9 is very encouraging. The underlying numbers don't lie too much either and Everton have fully deserved their points and led twice at Leeds United before having to settle for a 2-2 draw away from home.

Rafael Benitez has helped his team find a pretty good balance and Everton are going to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. The toe injury has slowed down the striker a little bit, but he leads the line effectively for Everton and this is a team creating chances.

I expect they can keep that going here with Burnley yet to really show their defensive organisation that people associate with a Sean Dyche team. As well as they have played at times, Burnley have looked vulnerable at the back and I do think a full Goodison Park crowd under the lights can inspire Everton to a victory.

Goals might not be too hard to find if these teams can pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago and I think Everton will get the better of a relatively high-scoring game. They were beaten by Burnley here last season, but the start to this campaign suggests Everton will be stronger and I think they show that by beating Burnley for the sixth time in eight home games against them.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap

Brighton 0 Asian Handicap

Leicester City-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals

Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap

West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap

Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Liverpool to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Everton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 4

The decision was made to use my Wild Card as soon as it became clear that Cristiano Ronaldo was signing for Manchester United.

Call it the heart ruling the head, but CR7 has a number of good looking fixtures to be played between now and the next international break and I think he is still a player capable of producing big returns at this level.

This is not an uncommon time for me to use my Wild Card as the summer transfer window has come to a conclusion, but in the last couple of seasons I have tended to hold onto the card.

However, this time around I had a couple of players I wanted to move on and bringing in Cristiano Ronaldo would have taken a couple more moves on top of that.

There are teams that have started fairly well that I had not picked in my original FPL squad and I think this is a good time to bring some of those players in, while I should have enough time to make sure I don't miss out on some of the good runs coming up for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea.

Those clubs have premium assets, but the likes of Wolves, Arsenal, Leeds United and Everton have decent fixtures coming up too.

Injuries and Covid concerns are never that far away, but like any Wild Card team, I am going to be playing with my selections for as long as possible.

At around 11am on Saturday morning I will reveal my GW4 team on Twitter

US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2021- Women's Final (September 11th)

The Women's US Open Final is one that no one could have possibly predicted two weeks ago even if they had been given multiple different chances to do so.

Even picking one of these players to reach the Final would have been surprising to read, but two teenagers are ready to make their mark on the tennis world and both are going to have some real expectations to deal with regardless of the result. I hope it is a good Final and I can only wish the best to both having had such a special two weeks already.

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: It has to be good news for the WTA Tour to have two teenagers break through and reach the Final of the last Grand Slam of the 2021 season. Tennis is always on the look out for the next big stars and both Leylah Fernandez and Emma Raducanu have been seen as stars of the future.

No one would have thought the future was going to begin in September 2021 though.

The top of the WTA has been a mix of players and there hasn't really been a stand out, dominant player. The likes of Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka will feel they are that player, but all of the Grand Slams have been really open tournaments and it has led to a number of surprising winners.

Barbora Krejcikova is a case in point having been Ranked outside the top 100 last year, but winning the French Open title back in June.

How this US Open will be looked back upon will depend on how Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez are able to back it up- they have time on their side, but both are Ranked outside the top 70 of the World Rankings going into the tournament and there is no doubt that this will be one of the more surprising Grand Slam Champions, regardless of who will win.

I have to favour Emma Raducanu, but both players are going to be dealing with a huge amount of pressure and that can play havoc on a performance. However, it is the British Qualifier who has been playing at an extremely high level throughout the tournament and Emma Raducanu looks to be confident and remains strong despite having those three Qualifiers under her belt too.

You can't take away anything from either player when it comes to the names they have beaten to reach the US Open Final, but Leylah Fernandez has been asked to invest a lot more physicality and emotions into her wins. The young Canadian has come from behind a couple of times already in this tournament and Fernandez has needed three sets in each of her last four wins, which means spending a lot more time on the court compared with Emma Raducanu who has yet to drop a set.

In the last three Rounds, Leylah Fernandez has seen her service numbers slip and that may be the difference between the players in this Final with Emma Raducanu getting plenty out of the conditions in New York City. It is also the British player who has been returning at an exceptional level and I do think that will make the difference in her favour as long as she can handle the occasion.

I have no reason to doubt Emma Raducanu considering how well she has handled herself in this whole tournament and I do think she has shown she is playing the superior tennis behind serve and return compared with Leylah Fernandez. The latter has shown plenty of fight and composure when playing the big points against some big name players, but Emma Raducanu looks to be the real deal and a first Grand Slam looks to be on the cards for her.

MY PICKS: Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

College Football Week 2 Picks 2021 (September 10-11)

The second week of the College Football season begins on Friday evening and the majority of the games will be played through Saturday.

You have to love the fact that the non-Conference games are back on the schedules as teams build towards their Divisional schedule, while we have some big games between schools from different Conferences that could have a big impact on the College Football PlayOff shake up later this year.

Teams can't earn their spot in the post-season in Week 2, but you can put yourself in a tough spot with a loss and that makes every game in the regular season that much more important.

It should be another fun week, but hopefully one a little stronger than Week 1 when three late games ended up pushing me into the red. More consistency with the Picks will be needed as the season moves on, but it is good to be back.

Oregon Ducks @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Covid-19 has played havoc with a lot of lives over the last eighteen months and it had a major impact on the 2020 College Football season. We are not out of the woods just yet, but the 2021 season is expected to be a lot more 'normal' for teams and there are some big, big non-Conference games on the schedule for some of the teams chasing spots in the College Football PlayOff come the end of the regular season.

Last season the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks were supposed to meet in Eugene in the first of a home and home Series, but that game was forced to be postponed as Conferences decided to make sure that their own Championships took precedent. They will play in Columbus this weekend and the favourites to win the Big Ten and Pac-12 Championships will be looking at this one as a big opportunity to set a marker for the entire season.

Winning this game is important for both the Buckeyes and Ducks and will give them a step up on some of their rivals when the College Football PlayOff Committee put their final four on the board. Both are coming off wins in Week 1, although the Ohio State Buckeyes were more impressive when winning on the road at the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

The Oregon Ducks were also winners, but their victory over Fresno State was very competitive and they did not get close to covering the spread as the favourite. Neither team will be focused on anything but this huge Week 2 match up and I do think home advantage and having a game under their belt will suit the Ohio State Buckeyes and help them produce a big win.

The Buckeyes have to be encouraged by the way CJ Stroud grew into his first start at Quarter Back for the team in the win over the Golden Gophers. He was in a tough spot taking over from Justin Fields, who has been Drafted by the Chicago Bears, but CJ Stroud is surrounded by some huge skill players that showed their worth in the victory on the road last week.

You could understand why so many were as high on the Receiving corps at Ohio State as they have been and the Offensive Line is one that will give their Quarter Back time to make plays. That time might be clear to see if Oregon are without Kayvon Thibodeaux who is the top name on the Ducks Defensive Line and if he cannot go, I think CJ Stroud will be able to back up and perhaps even top his Week 1 performance.

Oregon gave up some big plays through the air in their win over the Bulldogs, while it is going to be a big challenge for the Defensive Line in trying to control the line of scrimmage against the Ohio State Offensive Line. If the Buckeyes can open the same kind of holes as they did against Minnesota, Ohio State will have the Offensive balance that should see them push the ball up and down the field and give them the edge.

However, covering the spread will depend on whether the Ohio State Defensive unit can improve from what was a slightly disappointing performance against the Golden Gophers. Before a major injury to Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota were running the ball pretty effectively, although the lacklustre performance of the Oregon Offensive Line last week is a little concerning.

I expect better from the Ducks in this game and I do think the Offense will have success against an inexperienced Ohio State team that will be growing into this season. You don't want to take too much from one game and I do think Oregon will be better on this side of the ball than they were in the win over Fresno State, but Ohio State will have learnt plenty about themselves from their own Week 1 experiences.

This should be a game in which both Oregon and Ohio State will have Offensive success, but being at home should be enough for the Buckeyes to make the plays to pull away in the second half. The Buckeyes have tended to be too strong for teams coming out of the Pac-12 and they have a 12-2-1 record against the spread in the last fifteen against teams from that Conference.

Oregon have never beaten Ohio State, while the Ducks are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as as road underdog of more than three points. With the Ducks also being 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven against non-Conference opponents, I think the Ohio State Buckeyes can win this one by a slightly wider margin than the one they produced last week and move into a position to be one of the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOffs even after just two weeks of the regular season.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: I was pretty high on the Indiana Hoosiers going into Week 1 of the College Football season, but the Iowa Hawkeyes care little for reputations and expectations. They blew out the Hoosiers at home and even with a single game on the board, you may consider Iowa as the favourites to be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game as the leading team in the Big Ten West Division.

The Hawkeyes will head back into Divisional play next month and they will be keen to do so as an unbeaten team after finishing 6-2 last season. The team have not had a losing record since 2012, but this is the non-Conference game that every single Iowa fan will be wanting to win more than any other.

Winning the Big Ten Championship would give Iowa every chance of making the College Football PlayOff and they are a Ranked team.

For the first time ever, the Hawkeyes will be taking on their in-State rivals Iowa State Cyclones with both teams in the Rankings and the latter have to be massively respected. There are plenty out there who will feel the Cyclones are still trending in a positive direction coming off a 9-3 season and they may be right in amongst the favourites to win the Big 12 Championship and perhaps force their way into the College Football PlayOff.

So there isn't just a rivalry on the line on Saturday, but the winning team will deal their rivals a big blow in looking to secure a spot in the PlayOff and that has only intensified the feeling around the game. Having the 2020 meeting cancelled will have only increased that and I do think this is going to be a close, competitive game with very little between them.

Iowa State did not look so good in their own Week 1 win, but they were not playing FBS opposition and the feeling is that Head Coach Matt Campbell would have made sure a vanilla game plan is the only video the Hawkeyes have of their team in 2021. With 11 starters back on the Offensive side of the ball, Iowa will know what the Iowa State Cyclones are capable of, and they won't want to read too much into the performance in Week 1.

The Cyclones have a very productive Offensive unit and they have some of the top Receiving corps and Offensive Line in the nation. Add in Brock Purdy at Quarter Back and you know how good this Iowa State team can be, but the Hawkeyes have a tremendous Defensive unit and the belief is that they can keep their hosts in check for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

The Hawkeyes have an Offensive Line that is capable of giving Spencer Petras plenty of time at Quarter Back and with 7 starters back, Iowa should be as close to the levels they showed last season on this side of the ball. Like their rivals, Iowa State have a tremendous looking Defensive unit and they also have 9 starters back on this unit which gave up just 21.4 points on average in 2020.

It feels like this game has all of the makings of a close, low-scoring one and that makes the points with the underdog look appealing. I love the look of the Iowa State Cyclones, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are no slouches and they have won the last five in this rivalry.

I have to respect the fact that Iowa State have been a very strong home favourite to back when they are being asked to lay fewer than seven points, and they have covered in the last nine in that spot. The Hawkeyes have a poor 1-7 record against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog too, but my overriding feeling is that this is going to be a really competitive game between rivals and a Field Goal may be enough to separate them at the end of the contest.

Having more than three points for the underdog looks like too many points and I will look for the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit to make enough plays to contain the powerful looking Iowa State Cyclones. That should give the underdog the chance to keep this one close and I will take the points on offer here.

Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: These two schools were former rivals in the now defunct Southwest Conference and in the coming years the Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks will be renewing that rivalry when the former join the SEC along with the Oklahoma Sooners.

This game would have been arranged before the seismic news a few weeks ago that the Longhorns and Sooners were going to be leaving the Big 12 to join the loaded SEC, and it may just increase the importance of the game for all involved. Perhaps that is the reason that Arkansas are about to enjoy their first home sellout since 2017 and the Razorbacks will be hoping a raucous atmosphere can rattle their visitors.

Both Arkansas and Texas have opened the season with good looking wins and that should mean both squads are going to be playing with some confidence. Sam Pittman had guided Arkansas to a 3-7 record in his first season with the team, but 9 starters return on the Offensive unit and 10 on the Defensive unit and that has raised some expectations even if they are playing in a tremendously tough SEC West.

Things have changed in Austin too with the Longhorns deciding that Tom Herman's 32-18 record over four seasons with Texas was not good enough. A big time appointment was made with Steve Sarkisian taking over as Head Coach following a couple of solid years as Offensive Co-Ordinator with the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the new Head Coach has been left with some big talents on both sides of the ball.

There is an expectation that there will be some learning to cover for the Texas Longhorns, especially as they have a new Quarter Back, but Hudson Card impressed in Week 1. This is a much sterner test for the young Quarter Back in a tough environment, but he is surrounded by some real talent in the Running Back and Receiving units, while the Offensive Line can replicate the successes they had in 2020.

It makes it a tough challenge for the Razorbacks Defensive unit, but there is some real expectation that this could be one of the better Defenses we have seen in Fayetteville for a long time. Slowing down the Texas Longhorns will be difficult, especially when you factor in the knowledge Steve Sarkisian has of the SEC in general, and that will put some pressure on the home team to try and keep up.

There is every chance that Arkansas can do that with the Texas Longhorns having some issues to deal with in their Secondary. They may have a number of returning starters, but the Longhorns had a tough time Defensively in 2020 and the Razorbacks are expected to be much better Offensively now that Sam Pittman has had more time to work with his team compared with his first season in the job.

Like Texas, Arkansas have a young Quarter Back, but KJ Jefferson struggled in the opener and he will have to start much better in this one if he is going to keep hold of his job. The Defensive unit picked up the slack for the Quarter Back struggles, but Arkansas should have some success on the ground which can at least offer Jefferson a little more time to attack the weakness of the Texas Defense.

It is not easy to be confident in the Arkansas Offensive unit after a rough opening week, but I do think this is a tough place for a young visiting Quarter Back to play and that is something Texas are going to be facing up to. It may contribute to this game being closer than some may think and a couple of mistakes from Hudson Card could see the Razorbacks move into a position to cover.

Even with little time working with his players last season, Sam Pittman did lead Arkansas to a 3-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog. With more time to work with those players, I think the Razorbacks will be competitive when being underestimated, although Texas are the better team.

Arkansas are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve as the underdog and even a strong record as a road favourite for the Texas Longhorns would have been with a much more experienced Quarter Back. The Longhorns may do enough to win in Fayetteville, but the Razorbacks are good enough to keep this within the handicap mark as the home crowd helps the players produce a big performance.

Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The SEC West may be the stronger of the two Divisions in this Conference, but in recent seasons the SEC East has been getting closer and closer to the likes of Alabama and LSU. In 2021 it looks like the East is going to bring the heat, although the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers will have to find something special to challenge Georgia and Florida for a place in the SEC Championship Game.

Both teams only won five games in the shortened 2020 season, but the Kentucky Wildcats are returning 12 starters this time around and Missouri are bringing back 14. The expectation is that both teams will be improved this season and especially Kentucky who look to have a stronger Offensive unit and one that could be tough to stop both on the ground and through the air.

You don't want to get carried away by one game, but Kentucky looked much better on this side of the ball in their blow out win against an overmatched opponent. This will be a far greater test for new Quarter Back Will Levis, but he will also be enthused by the spaces the Tigers had in the Secondary as they get to grips with a new Defensive Co-Ordinator and his schemes as Steve Wilks has spent recent seasons putting things in place in the NFL.

I have to believe that Missouri will be stronger defending the pass than they showed last week and it may also have been a case of not wanting to put too many schemes on film against an opponent they would have expected to beat. At the end of the day the Tigers produced the win, but Will Levis may be able to have a strong game for the Wildcats and especially if the Kentucky Offensive Line can open up the running lanes against the strong Missouri Defensive Line.

It was another aspect in which the Tigers struggled last week and I do have to like the chances of Kentucky being able to move the ball with some confidence in this one.

The key for Kentucky is the Defensive side of the ball and they certainly look like having the players that can contain what may be a transitional Missouri Offense. The Tigers are going to be more experienced having had a full summer working with Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz who will be calling his own plays, and there were certainly some signs of that in the win over Central Michigan in Week 1.

Missouri lost a top Running Back to the NFL in the last Draft, but the Offensive Line looks like it could pave the way for some solid numbers on the ground. Tylar Badie took advantage of the holes the Offensive Line opened up for them, but this week the Tigers will be facing a Kentucky Defensive Line had a big performance last time out and have a number of players touted for big things amongst their performers.

Some key players have moved on to the NFL and it will be interesting to see which of these teams can win at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball which may end up being the determining factor between a win and a loss.

Revenge will be on the minds of the Wildcats having lost as a 3.5 road favourite at Missouri last year, although that result means the underdog has covered in five straight games when these two teams have played one another.

However, Kentucky tend to play much better at home and they are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen here, while they are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite. At the same time Missouri have struggled as a road underdog and the Tigers are just 7-20 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games overall.

With a new look Offense looking like it could push the Kentucky Wildcats back into a winning record after the disappointment of 2020, I think Mark Stoops will guide his team to a successful revenge mission. The spread will be competitive with a backdoor cover a possibility, but I will back the Kentucky Wildcats to do enough to win and cover here.

Washington Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: I have said many times that you can't put too much stock into one result, but the Washington Huskies were embarrassingly beaten by Montana at home last week. It is not only the loss, but the Huskies managed just 7 points despite entering the season with some huge expectations on their shoulders.

Some have tipped them up as the team to beat in the Pac-12 North, but Washington were guilty of overlooking their opponent and perhaps focusing on this game instead. That alone is not a good enough excuse, but Washington were not helped with three of their Receivers being absent through injury and with Ja'Lynn Polk banged up during the game.

Rome Odunze and Terrell Bynum cannot come back quick enough with their statuses set as day to day, while Polk is almost certainly ruled out for this game. Without some of the top names on this unit, Dylan Morris had an awful game at Quarter Back with three Interceptions thrown to propel the loss to Montana.

Even then Dylan Morris may feel he can have a bounce back performance against the Michigan Wolverines who may have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball, but who had an awful 2020 with some very disappointing numbers.

It is all well and good saying the Wolverines looked good in Week 1, but they are facing a much better opponent this time around and some of their younger players will have to show what they have learned. I do think the Washington Huskies have been prepping for this game all summer so Dylan Morris should have a better outing, especially if one or two of the Receivers mentioned above return.

If they cannot return, Washington will have to rely on their Defensive unit to make up for the Offensive woes and this is a team with 8 returning starters from 2020. The Secondary looks strong, while they are expecting to be much improved when it comes to stopping the run, although both aspects will be challenged by this Michigan team.

The Wolverines are under pressure to show their improvement after a poor 2020, but they have 10 returning starters and an experienced Quarter Back in Alan Bowman, who transferred from Texas Tech. It was actually Cade McNamara who got the nod in Week 1 and he has had some experience guiding the Michigan Offense from 2020, while the start to the season was steady if unspectacular this time around.

However, it was not all good news out of Week 1 as Ronnie Bell has been lost to a season ending injury and there is no doubting the impact this will have on the Michigan passing game. Facing the Huskies Secondary will be much more challenging for Cade McNamara this week and I do think the underdog may show more bite as they look to remind other teams they are far better than their opening performance.

Washington's Defensive unit can keep them in this game even though it is tough to oppose Michigan as the home favourite under Jim Harbaugh. The Big House will be rocking for this game which will make it difficult for the Huskies, but the Wolverines Offensive unit are not easy to trust right now in their development and especially not against a Defensive unit like this one.

As bad as Washington were last week, the focus would have been on this game and I expect key Receivers to be available which can only boost Dylan Morris against what may be an inconsistent Michigan Defensive unit.

The Huskies are a team that can bounce back from losses, while Michigan are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games. They are also 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven games against teams from the Pac-12 and I think there is every chance that Washington can get the better of the public who have been pounding Michigan at the window.

With a full Touchdown start, I am looking for a Huskies performance that is much more in line with what would be expected of a team that may have been considered the top team in the Pac-12 North before a ball had been thrown.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arkansas Razorbacks + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington Huskies + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 26 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

US Open Day 12 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 11th)

Even without the fans in attendance it will always be an emotional day at sporting events played in the United States and particularly those played in New York City on September 11th.

Nineteen years have passed since that infamous day in history and it is one that will not be forgotten.

I am sure they will mark the occasion in some way at the US Open on Day 12 of the tournament when the two Men's Singles Semi Finals are played. All four remaining in the draw have a huge opportunity to win their maiden Grand Slam title, although the majority of fans would likely make the winner of the second Semi Final the strong favourite to win the title when the Final is played on Sunday.

The Women's Final was set on Thursday as this tournament reaches its final few days and then the Tour will be moving on to the clay courts ahead of the French Open which will begin before September comes to an end.

It is a crazy schedule at a crazy time for all of us.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: A five set win over Denis Shapovalov means Pablo Carreno Busta has made use of being the beneficiary of Novak Djokovic's Default in the Fourth Round. Now he gets set to play his second US Open Semi Final having been beaten in four sets by Kevin Anderson at this stage in 2017, but you can't underestimate the experience that the Spaniard would have picked up.

His opponent has not reached the US Open Semi Final before, but Alexander Zverev has reached consecutive Grand Slam Semi Finals after doing the same at the Australian Open at the start of the year. The four set win over Borna Coric was short of a lot of quality, but the German found a way to win a match that he would have lost eighteen months ago and that has to be something Zverev is given credit for.

There was still over three hours needed on court though and Alexander Zverev has sometimes been let down late in Grand Slams as fatigue built up through the tournament end up catching up with him. However, in this case his opponent Pablo Carreno Busta had to spend almost four a and a half hours on court to win his Quarter Final and admitted he was shattered at the end of the match.

I do think Carreno Busta has some solid numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months which have to be respected. He also plays with a toughness which means he does not give up easily on the court and that kind of attitude could be very dangerous for the younger player to deal with things.

Alexander Zverev has not been dominating in this tournament, but he has played well enough behind serve to believe he can keep Pablo Carreno Busta under pressure. I do think his return could be improved and certainly will need to be if Zverev is going to win his maiden Grand Slam, but it might be good enough to be effective against Carreno Busta if there is any lingering fatigue from the long Quarter Final match.

The German out-served Pablo Carreno Busta when these players met in Miami in March 2018 and I do think Zverev makes a much more effective start than the one he did in the Quarter Final. Over the last twelve months Alexander Zverev has had a slight edge over Pablo Carreno Busta when it comes to the return of serve on the hard courts and I think that may show up in this match too as he reaches his first Grand Slam Final.

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Both Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem have reached the Final of a Grand Slam event played on the hard courts over the last twelve months- in 2019 the Russian reached the Final here at the US Open before finding Rafael Nadal a little too good in five sets and Dominic Thiem reached the Final at the Australian Open before his own five set defeat to Novak Djokovic.

With those results behind them, I do think both Medvedev and Thiem are going into this Semi Final with a real belief that the winning player will be going on to win their maiden Grand Slam title.

Between the two players only a single set has been dropped at the US Open in the ten matches played combined together. That is underlining how well both Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem have played at the tournament so far, although there is a very slight concern about the shoulder issue and cramping that Medvedev had in the Quarter Final.

You can't dismiss the high level that Dominic Thiem has been producing through the tournament, but this will be the first top 20 Ranked player that he will have come up against. Over the last twelve months the Austrian has played well on the hard courts, but his serve is one that can look a little more vulnerable when he faces top 20 and then top 10 Ranked players on the surface.

Now Thiem has to play an opponent in Daniil Medvedev who has produced some stunning numbers on this surface over the last twelve months. The Russian has a real edge over Dominic Thiem when it comes to the service points and return points won on the hard courts over the last several months and it should mean he is rightly down as a narrow favourite.

One concern is that Medvedev is 2-4 when it comes to facing top 10 Ranked opponents on this surface and his numbers are perhaps not quite as strong as Dominic Thiem's against that level of opponent. It is very close though and it may lead to a match that goes the distance as long as Daniil Medvedev's fitness holds up.

When these players last met it was on the hard courts in Canada in August 2019 and Daniil Medvedev crushed Dominic Thiem for the loss of just four games. The Russian dominated in all aspects of that match, but I think Dominic Thiem is playing at a strong level which should make him much more competitive in this one.

However, Daniil Medvedev is serving very well and I think that will give him the edge in the match again and I will look for him to move through to a second straight US Open Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 42-36, + 1.79 Units (156 Units Staked, + 1.15% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2017 (September 7-11)

I am anticipating the NFL Picks will come out much earlier than they will be in Week 1 because I won't be away on holiday until late in the week as I have been this past week.

There may be a couple of times when I won't release them until Sunday morning, but the aim is to try and get them ready to be out by Saturday evening, although work factors and personal factors can't always be determined for an entire season.

Next week I will have a much fuller thread for the NFL Week 2 Picks, but for Week 1 it is all about the games I like as we get set for another six months of fascinating match ups and great plays on the way to the Super Bowl which is held in Minnesota in February.

Hopefully it will be a good season for the NFL Picks as well as the Miami Dolphins, although I can only control the former and keep my fingers crossed for the latter.

For the early games I will say a few words and for the later games/Monday games I should have fuller breakdowns below.

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears Pick: The biggest question for the Atlanta Falcons this season is going to be how they respond to their Super Bowl disappointment. It is one thing losing the Super Bowl, it is another all together when you lose from a 28-3 lead and basically going down as the victim of one of the biggest comebacks in history.

That has to be a concern for the Falcons fanbase, but they are a big favourite to see off the Chicago Bears in Week 1. The Falcons look settled on both sides of the ball compared with a Chicago team who look to be in full rebuild mode.

Injuries have already hurt the Bears who have lost their Quarter Back and Number 1 Receiver from 2016 and also saw Cameron Meredith go down with an injury in preseason. In a tough NFC North, the Bears do look the weakest team and there is a real feeling they could be picking in the top five of the Draft next April.

Atlanta do have a big game on deck which is a concern, but I don't think they overlook Chicago as they look to make a statement that the Super Bowl is firmly behind them. I don't think the Bears score enough to stay with the Falcons, but I will only have a single unit on this with this being Week 1 and taking a big road favourite in a spot where most expect them to win easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This is a huge spread for the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover, but they do look one of the top teams in the AFC and they are facing a Divisional rival who are still rebuilding. The Cleveland Browns could be in more another season of pain under Hue Jackson as they start a rookie Quarter Back in a bid to kick start a franchise which has been struggling for years.

Cutting Joe Haden and seeing the Corner land in Pittsburgh is a blow for the Dawg Pound in the stands, but also could be a big factor in the game. Haden will be able to relay exactly what is expected to come from the Browns and that should give Mike Tomlin every chance of producing the perfect game plan.

There shouldn't be any real problems on the Offensive side of the ball for Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell all expected to play key roles in 2017. I also don't anticipate any overlooking of Cleveland with all the Divisional games so important for teams and I like the Steelers.

Pittsburgh have won three of their last four visits to Cleveland by double digits and I will have an interest in their covering this number too.

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There are some numbers that make for very strange reading in the NFL season and this is one in Week 1 that I can't get my head around. I think the Oakland Raiders may be one of the best teams in the NFL and they are getting a Field Goal start meaning they would be considered even with the Tennessee Titans on a neutral field.

I like Tennessee too, I think they make the Play Offs as long as their key players remain healthy so the Titans are not over-rated. However I still think they are below the Raiders in terms of where their team is, and so the points look attractive.

Tennessee may match up well with Oakland with their ability to run the ball going up against the Raiders weakness from 2016. That should mean the Titans are moving the chains and this is a match on the East Coast time for Oakland which has been tough for them over the years.

Derek Carr is back healthy though and Oakland should be able to score points against the Titans Secondary in what looks to be a close game. I don't like opposing the sharps who seem to be on the Tennessee Titans with the spread doubling over the last few days in favour of the home team, and so I will keep the interest to a minimum in this one.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East once again looks like being the best Division in the NFL and all four teams involved will feel they can make the Play Offs at the end of the 2017 season. The two leading teams may be the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants in the East and two will play each other in Week 1 which feels like a yearly occurrence.

It may be a tale of two stars as the Cowboys can call upon Ezekiel Elliot after his suspension was subsequently suspended, while the Giants look set to miss Odell Beckham Jr after the Receiver was hurt in pre-season. OBJ looks to be losing his battle to be passed fit for Week 1 and that is a big loss for the New York Giants.

The mood won't be improved if Brandon Marshall is also limited in the opening game while there remains some doubts about the quality of the protection that will be given to Eli Manning. The veteran Quarter Back still has the goods to deliver on Sunday, but without the luxury of throwing to OBJ, it can be a much tougher day in the office for him.

However Manning may have more time in this game than he will in many others with the Dallas Cowboys Defensive unit still looking to find a consistent pass rushing threat up front. The Defense played much better than expected in 2016, but there are a number of personnel moves that have been made and it is a big ask for Dallas to be as effective as they were for much of last season.

The best way for Dallas to protect the Defensive unit may be to earn long drives through the Offense which was important for them last season. Dak Prescott is now the undisputed Quarter Back and Elliot being available is huge for the Cowboys as they face a revamped Giants Defensive unit that is expected to be amongst the best in the NFL.

You would expect Dallas can run the ball effectively in this one behind the Offensive Line they have put together, but the Giants will also feel confident about their chances of at least slowing down the Cowboys. There are other threats on the Dallas Offensive unit outside of Elliot with Dez Bryant always a danger, but this is a New York Defense that did play well against Dallas last season.

While the Cowboys averaged 26 points per game in 2016, they scored a combined 26 points in two games with the New York Giants and that makes this an appealing spread. New York have a 6-2 record against the spread in Dallas from their last eight visits, and the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in this series.

It does feel like a game that may not feature as much scoring as anticipated and that also makes getting more than a Field Goal worth of points look the way to go. Even without Odell Beckham Jr, Eli Manning and the Offense should be able to score enough points to keep this close with the Defensive unit likely to step up for the Giants to give them every chance to win the game.


I am adding the two Monday Night Football Picks below.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Giants + 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)