US Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final 2021 (September 12th)

What else can you say about Emma Raducanu? The newest member of the Grand Slam Winners club really has had one of the most remarkable runs in the history of the sport and now the pressure will be on the youngster to back it up.

She fully deserved her win and Emma Raducanu looks like someone who can be in amongst the elite of Women's tennis for years to come. The WTA Tour needs a consistent star, but there is still a feeling that the top of the sport remains wide open and I would expect to see more surprising winners of the Grand Slam events in 2022.

There have been plenty of those names winning those tournaments and every player on the WTA Tour should feel they are capable of getting into a hot streak at the right time to win a Grand Slam. Some are dealing with a lot more expectations than others and I do think that keeps the tournaments wide open with those top names struggling to deal with those pressures.

On Sunday it is the turn of the Men and I do think the Final between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will be a good one- unlike the Women, the Men's tournaments have largely been dominated by the top names that most would have expected and it is up to the likes of Medvedev to break through the ceiling that is being held down by the Big Three.

Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 37.5 games: History was made on Saturday as the first ever Qualifier to win a Grand Slam tournament was confirmed when Emma Raducanu deservedly picked up the US Open title.

The top of the WTA Tour remains fluid, but that is not the case on the ATP Tour as another big moment is before us.

Novak Djokovic is looking to complete the calendar Grand Slam and surpass both his rivals, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, in number of Grand Slam titles won. The World Number 1 is constantly setting new targets for himself and I have no doubt that he will be looking to surpass Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams before his calls time on his career.

There is a huge amount of pressure that Novak Djokovic will be dealing with and this has been a tough tournament for him as he has dropped sets constantly on his way through to the Final. He has spent ten hours on the court to win his last three matches and Novak Djokovic was forced to dig very deep in seeing off Alexander Zverev in five sets on Friday night.

The scoreboard may not suggest it, but that was a match that could have easily gone the other way on the numbers and this is another big challenge for Novak Djokovic.

Some will point out the Australian Open Final as evidence of that not being the case, but Daniil Medvedev has admitted he was so short of his top game that day. I also think the conditions in New York City favour Daniil Medvedev more than in Melbourne and his progress through the draw has been very efficient.

The World Number 2 has not spent nearly as much time on the court as Novak Djokovic and his numbers have been strong throughout the week with the big serve working very well. Daniil Medvedev will be the first to admit he will need his 'A' game when it comes to the serve if he is going to beat Novak Djokovic, but he has done that before and this should be a highly competitive and very close match.

It is Novak Djokovic who leads the head to head, but it is not a dominant lead. He is 5-3 against Daniil Medvedev overall and 4-2 on the hard courts, but their sole match on a North American hard court was won by the Russian player. The strongest of the Novak Djokovic wins did come in the Australian Open Final, but in the three previous hard court matches it is Daniil Medvedev who has looked the more consistent returner, which is a remarkable thing to even write down.

His performances in this tournament and experiences of losing the Australian Open and US Open Finals before should really aid Daniil Medvedev, although the gut feeling is that Novak Djokovic will find a way to dig this out. It won't be easy though and I do think the performances of Daniil Medvedev makes it very hard to believe he will be blown away as he was in Melbourne back in February, while Novak Djokovic has to be feeling a little bit more fatigue than his opponent considering their exploits to reach this Final.

Something special may end up being produced by the current top two players in the World Rankings and I do think there will be at least four sets needed for the Champion to prevail. I am going to look for the match to go long and I will back the pair to surpass this total games line.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 37-32, - 0.26 Units (137 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 4 Picks 2021 (September 11-13)

SIUUUUUUUU!!!

Where else can I begin? It has to be about Cristiano Ronaldo and the return to Old Trafford after what has felt like an international break that has gone on for two months rather than two weeks.

I am fortunate enough to have a ticket to watch Ronaldo for the first time since I last saw him in a Manchester United shirt- Rome in May 2009- and I simply cannot wait. Unsurprisingly my FPL team will represent the excitement and I have activated my Wild Card far earlier than usual as I look to build on a decent, if not spectacular start to the season after three GameWeeks have been placed in the books.

First, the thoughts on the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend.

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are times when results overshadow everything and you do have to feel that is the case at Tottenham Hotspur who have secured three 1-0 Premier League wins in a row. They are the only team with a perfect record in the top flight and they are considered odds on to win this fourth fixture, but a deeper look at the actual performances suggest there has been some fortune around the results.

Winning games on the pitch is what matters, but the performances have to be sustainable and so there is work for Nuno Espirito Santo to do. He will be boosted by Harry Kane committing his short-term future to the club, but the manager will not have enjoyed the international break very much.

Three players are going to have to quarantine having represented South American nations in the international break, while both Steven Bergwijn and Heung-Min Son are doubts and could be vital losses if they cannot go this weekend.

Even then, Spurs are considered the favourites against a Crystal Palace team which is still finding its feet under new manager Patrick Vieira. The last couple of performances have been better and Vieira will have been pleased with the attacking display in the 2-2 draw at West Ham United two weeks ago, and that certainly gives Patrick Vieira something to build upon.

There have been some signs that the defensive capabilities of the Crystal Palace squad are still there even after the departure of Roy Hodgson and I do think this is a team that can pick up a positive result.

The first goal is going to be important in this opening Premier League fixture of this weekend, but I do think Crystal Palace are being underestimated. Better finishing from Manchester City and Wolves would have seen them pick up results against Spurs and I do think the latter are going to step back from the early season form unless vastly improving.

With a long injury list to deal with, I think Crystal Palace can take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur with the home supporters firmly behind them. The Eagles are unbeaten in 3 at home in all competitions against Tottenham Hotspur and they can extend that run to another game on Saturday with the attacking players looking like they can build on the performance at the London Stadium.

Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: Three Premier League games, zero points and a minus nine goal difference.

A 6-0 win over a Championship club in the League Cup Second Round.

Arsenal and Norwich City have made very similar starts to the 2021/22 season as two of the three clubs that have yet to produce a Premier League point this season. Both have also suffered a 5-0 hammering at Champions Manchester City and this is a big weekend for Arsenal and Norwich City as they look to pick up points from a better looking set of fixtures than they had to deal with in August.

The pressure is more squarely on Mikel Arteta with rumours that Arsenal are already sounding out replacements. He will be boosted by a more winnable fixture than the last two in the Premier League and the manager will also be able to call on the likes of Ben White, Thomas Partey and Nicolas Pepe this weekend which should give the Arsenal squad a boost.

They did have a strong second half of the season in the Premier League last time around and I do think Arsenal can offer more in fixtures like this rather than facing the top six clubs. The 2-0 defeat at Brentford was a huge disappointment, but Arsenal were missing key players for that one and they look healthier all around.

Norwich City have also been left pointless after being handed a start that saw them face three top five clubs from last season in August. Daniel Farke will have been pleased with some of the attacking play against Liverpool and Leicester City, but Norwich City will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to avoid a second relegation in three seasons.

I expect Arsenal to have been working on their own defensive shape over the last two weeks and having Ben White and Thomas Partey back could be key for the team. They have enough attacking quality to feel they can open up this Norwich City team who have lost their last 7 away Premier League games and I do think Arsenal are going to produce a big result to keep the wolves from the door for their manager.

The visitors should pose one or two problems, but Arsenal have beaten Norwich City 5 times in a row at home and I expect them to be able to do that again on Saturday.

Brentford v Brighton Pick: There is no love lost between the two owners of Brentford and Brighton and Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom have not really repaired their relationship. However, both have a similar way of operating their football clubs and both Brentford and Brighton will feel their methods are going to be good enough to maintain their spot in the Premier League.

Bragging rights are going to be important on Saturday and I do think both managers will be aware of the need for a positive result, perhaps even more so than usual.

In saying that, the players should be largely shielded from the issues their club's owners have with one another and all the squads are going to be focusing on is building on a positive start to the season. The two teams have both progressed in the League Cup and Brentford have earned 5 points, while Brighton have 6 points in the Premier League.

Brighton have perhaps been the stronger performers early in the season, although Graham Potter will want his team to show slightly more in the defensive areas of the pitch. The hosts might be unbeaten, but Brentford could have easily had fewer points on the board and I do think they have not been as creative in the final third as Thomas Frank may be asking.

That could leave them vulnerable in this home game, although I do think the Brentford Community Stadium will be a difficult ground for teams to visit. The home fans will give Brentford a boost, but I think Brighton's play under Graham Potter has been very encouraging and they are looking like being a creative threat much like they were last season too.

The key for Graham Potter is that the early fixtures have suggested Brighton may not be as wasteful in front of goal and they were comfortable home winners over newly promoted Watford last month. Brentford will be a tougher team to break down, especially being at home and with the early form showing they are well organised and tough to open up.

That makes this a close match and I am not surprised the layers are having a hard time separating the teams. However, I do think Brighton's early performances in the final third are encouraging enough to believe they deserve the edge and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to secure the three points.

Leicester City v Manchester City Pick: There is some real uncertainty coming out of the international break and even more so than usual for Manchester City who have seen the Brazilian FA enforce FIFA regulations that will rule Ederson and Gabriel Jesus out for this fixture.

The Premier League are trying to work things out and so the status of these two players will be determined later this week.

If Ederson is ruled out, Manchester City could be down to third choice Scott Carson to play between the sticks and that may leave them a little vulnerable. The last time Carson played, Manchester City conceded three times to Newcastle United, but breaking down the Champions won't be easy.

Manchester City have been in control of their last two Premier League matches and this Leicester City team have opened the season with some mixed performances. They were terrible in the heavy loss to West Ham United, while Leicester City were fortunate to beat Wolves in their sole home game played this season.

Brendan Rodgers may have some defensive reinforcements back in time for this one, but he will also want his Leicester City team to show a little more in the final third. Finding that balance against Manchester City is going to be very difficult, especially if Leicester City are continuing to struggle at the back.

I do expect Pep Guardiola's men to dominate the possession and they should have enough to win here even accounting for some of the players that are going to miss out. In the last two Premier League games, Manchester City have looked very strong at the back and they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium.

Games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring in recent years and 7 of the last 10 have ended with less than three goals shared out. That includes the game in the Community Shield, while the fixtures hosted by Leicester City have tended to be tight.

5 of the last 6 at the King Power Stadium have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and the feeling is that this will be another. Manchester City should end up as narrow winners on the day, but both teams may be looking to build any foundation for success on their defensive shape in this one.

Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: There has been a huge amount of excitement in the Manchester United fanbase ever since it was announced that Cristiano Ronaldo will be returning to the club and this two week international break will have felt like a lifetime for many.

The fixture is not being broadcasted in the United Kingdom, but for those fortunate to have tickets this is a much anticipated game.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have produced 7 points so far this season and the signing of Ronaldo is one that could see Manchester United really build a title challenge. Last season Manchester United only won 9 of 19 home Premier League games, but Cristiano Ronaldo's presence could see them put a few more victories on the board.

Manchester United have played well in the first month, but there is room for improvement and this is a fixture that looks a good one on paper. First off Manchester United scored seven goals against Newcastle United in the Premier League last season, while The Magpies have had a poor start to the new campaign and look vulnerable.

Steve Bruce will soon be feeling the pressure again and his team have conceded at least two goals in each of their Premier League games played. Newcastle United have been comfortably beaten by both Aston Villa and West Ham United and the chances they have allowed teams to create against them is a massive worry.

Callum Wilson may be missing too, which only makes life that much more difficult for Newcastle United, and I do think they are going to struggle to contain the hosts. There should be a really hot crowd at Old Trafford to welcome back Cristiano Ronaldo and that should give the Manchester United players a boost much like it did in the 5-1 win over Leeds United.

An early goal would create a real problem for Newcastle United and Manchester United are capable of putting them to the sword. They have won 4 in a row at Old Trafford against Newcastle United and Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of those home victories.

It feels like a match that Manchester United should control and I would expect the home team to score the goals that sees them win by a couple of goals at the very least.

Southampton v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams went into the September international break off the back of a 2-2 draw, but Southampton would have been more pleased with their result compared with West Ham United.

A lot of key players have left Southampton this summer, but they have made a decent start to the season and they will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have looked a little vulnerable at the back. However, the bigger problem for Southampton is finding the balance to contain the strong attacking play David Moyes' men have put together.

I think that gives West Ham United the edge in the match and I do think they are going to be able to create chances. In the first two Premier League games, Southampton looked a little ragged at the back as the team gets used to being without Ryan Bertrand and Jannik Vestegaard, and I do believe that gives this West Ham United team spaces to exploit.

The Hammers have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and this is a team that is playing with confidence as they sit in 2nd place in the table. The goals they are scoring makes West Ham United a very dangerous team at the moment and I do think they are going to take the game to their hosts.

Southampton may feel they can play a part in the game too, especially if they are as positive as they were at St James' Park two weeks ago. However, they have been a little inconsistent in the final third before that fixture against Newcastle United and I do think that says more about the latter than it does about Southampton.

West Ham United have a decent record at St Mary's in recent seasons and they can win for the third time in four visits. David Moyes will be hoping the September international break has not broken their momentum, and, if it hasn't, West Ham United should have enough threat in the final third to lead to the three points.

Watford v Wolves Pick: The underlying numbers have been very impressive from Wolves in the first three Premier League games played this season, but those are not enough to appease the fans. While they have played well enough to perhaps win all of their League games, Wolves have been impotent in the final third and that has led to 1-0 defeats to Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Poor finishing has been a real problem for Bruno Lage's men, but they have been creating some solid opportunities in all of the fixtures played. Defensively Wolves have looked pretty good for the most part and only a mistake from their goalkeeper cost them a positive result against Manchester United two weeks ago.

If they can continue producing these levels of performance, I do think Wolves are going to turn things around and start picking up some big results. However, they could be without Raul Jimenez this weekend to add to the attacking issues and Wolves are also visiting a ground on which Watford have enjoyed plenty of successes.

Back to back away Premier League defeats will have hurt, but Watford know it is the form at Vicarage Road which will determine whether they can avoid the drop or not. They have already won twice at home this season and that means they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions, while Watford have been reliant on strong defensive performances in those games.

They looked pretty well organised in the narrow defeat at Tottenham Hotspur two weeks ago too and I do think Watford are capable of producing a positive result as an underdog. I can't ignore the fact that Wolves are playing much better than their results suggest and they have dangerous players in their squad, but Watford haven't played badly and are clearly very comfortable in home surroundings.

Two seasons ago Watford did enough to beat Wolves at home and I think they are worth backing as the underdog with a slight start on the Asian Handicap. The first goal could be massively important in this one, but Watford have scored first in their last 17 home games in all competitions and the home underdog can produce a positive result on the day.

Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The first international break of the 2021/22 season has caused some havoc for domestic clubs around Europe and particularly for those in the Premier League who have chosen to prevent players representing their South American nations.

It means Chelsea and Aston Villa are going to be missing some key players for this Premier League fixture, while injuries across the last two weeks could also have an impact on the game.

Romelu Lukaku would be a big miss for Chelsea, but Aston Villa are missing their first choice goalkeeper and have injuries in the squad that leaves them vulnerable. Ezra Konsa may also be missing and that leaves the heart of the Aston Villa team looking short of the quality they may need to take on a Chelsea team that have opened the season with positive performances and results.

The home advantage should be more important for teams this season compared with last and Chelsea have already beaten Crystal Palace here. Aston Villa are still finding their feet without Jack Grealish and they have looked a little shaky at both ends of the field and being without Emiliano Martinez is just another blow for Dean Smith to absorb.

Danny Ings has shown he can provide goals for Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins should be available, but Chelsea are well organised defensively. They have the attacking players that can make up for any Lukaku absence and the feeling is that Chelsea will have too much for their short-handed visitors in the late Saturday kick off.

Thomas Tuchel's tactics can be a little geared towards making sure Chelsea are hard to beat, but since he took over at Stamford Bridge they have won 5 of 11 Premier League games by two or more goal margins. Defensively Chelsea should be able to contain much of what Aston Villa bring to the table and I think they have the players that can score the goals to ensure a relatively comfortable win on the day.

Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The late Sunday afternoon offering from the Premier League will see a full Elland Road having the opportunity to host one of the traditional big English clubs. After a season watching the team at home, the fans will be keen to provide a big atmosphere for the Leeds United players when they face Liverpool.

Marcelo Bielsa's men are unbeaten in 8 at Elland Road in all competitions and they have given some of the top teams something to think about in the second half of last season. Leeds United have not had the best of starts to this campaign, but they are a team that will put pressure on their opponent and they will be looking to create chances.

They will likely cause some problems for Liverpool, but Leeds United have not made the best of starts to this season from a defensive point of view. It is a worry for them when you think of the kind of chances that Liverpool have been creating and I do believe that will give the visitors the edge in this match.

When Leeds United hosted Everton, it was the team from Liverpool that created the best opportunities and I imagine The Reds will do something similar.

Even with Roberto Firmino expected to miss out, Liverpool should have the attacking threats to give Leeds United a number of problems to work out. I expect Leeds United will have some joy if Alisson is expected to sit out for Liverpool, but they are going to be without Raphinha and that does take away a real part of the threat that the home team would usually offer.

It would not be a massive surprise if both teams hit the back of the net, but the feeling is that Liverpool's attacking output early this season will give them the edge. The game here finished 1-1 last season, but Liverpool will feel they would have won that game if they showed more of a clinical edge.

That was also missing in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea two weeks ago, but Liverpool have beaten both Norwich City and Burnley pretty comfortably. Liverpool should have too much for Leeds United in this live game and they can win a game that should feature at least two goals.

Everton v Burnley Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend could be a relatively decent watch if the early season form of Everton and Burnley is anything to go by.

Everton are the ones with the points on the board, but Burnley have arguably deserved more than a single point from a home defeat to Brighton and a home draw with Leeds United. They conceded late in the draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, while Burnley have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

The hosts have made a good start under Rafael Benitez and 7 points from a possible 9 is very encouraging. The underlying numbers don't lie too much either and Everton have fully deserved their points and led twice at Leeds United before having to settle for a 2-2 draw away from home.

Rafael Benitez has helped his team find a pretty good balance and Everton are going to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. The toe injury has slowed down the striker a little bit, but he leads the line effectively for Everton and this is a team creating chances.

I expect they can keep that going here with Burnley yet to really show their defensive organisation that people associate with a Sean Dyche team. As well as they have played at times, Burnley have looked vulnerable at the back and I do think a full Goodison Park crowd under the lights can inspire Everton to a victory.

Goals might not be too hard to find if these teams can pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago and I think Everton will get the better of a relatively high-scoring game. They were beaten by Burnley here last season, but the start to this campaign suggests Everton will be stronger and I think they show that by beating Burnley for the sixth time in eight home games against them.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap

Brighton 0 Asian Handicap

Leicester City-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals

Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap

West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap

Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Liverpool to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Everton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 4

The decision was made to use my Wild Card as soon as it became clear that Cristiano Ronaldo was signing for Manchester United.

Call it the heart ruling the head, but CR7 has a number of good looking fixtures to be played between now and the next international break and I think he is still a player capable of producing big returns at this level.

This is not an uncommon time for me to use my Wild Card as the summer transfer window has come to a conclusion, but in the last couple of seasons I have tended to hold onto the card.

However, this time around I had a couple of players I wanted to move on and bringing in Cristiano Ronaldo would have taken a couple more moves on top of that.

There are teams that have started fairly well that I had not picked in my original FPL squad and I think this is a good time to bring some of those players in, while I should have enough time to make sure I don't miss out on some of the good runs coming up for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea.

Those clubs have premium assets, but the likes of Wolves, Arsenal, Leeds United and Everton have decent fixtures coming up too.

Injuries and Covid concerns are never that far away, but like any Wild Card team, I am going to be playing with my selections for as long as possible.

At around 11am on Saturday morning I will reveal my GW4 team on Twitter

NFL Week 1 Picks 2021 (September 9-13)

It feels like a long time has passed since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team to win the Super Bowl in their own Stadium, but the 2021 NFL season is ready to this week.

The new 17 game season is set to begin in the same Stadium where the 2020 season was concluded and I will place my Week 1 Picks in this thread. I will have my season predictions in the Week 2 post and with the Power Rankings and that is largely down to time constraints this week preventing me putting together a longer thread, but that should not be the case ahead of Week 2.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Injuries are always a big factor in the NFL and it was injuries which meant the Dallas Cowboys finished with a disappointing 6-10 record in the 2020 season. Head Coach Mike McCarthy had a tough start with the Cowboys and was not helped by the Covid-19 pandemic which meant walkthroughs had to be completed without players in the building, but that all changes in 2021 and the Dallas Cowboys are playing in a weak Division in which they can bounce back from the challenges of last season.

The Head Coach is going to want a season in which the key Offensive players are not absent for as long as they were last season- Dallas had to use four Quarter Backs in 2020- and Dak Prescott is set to go in Week 1. There have been some concerns about his health, but he has been practicing this week and at this point it would be a massive surprise if the Quarter Back is not leading the Dallas Offensive unit.

Last season Dak Prescott looked like he might be on the path to producing some huge numbers, but the injury cost him the season and there will be some caution from the fans about where Prescott may be in his recovery. He is surrounded with some good players in the skill positions, but there is one major problem for Dak Prescott ahead of this game.

For a few years the Dallas Offensive Line has been one of the strengths of the entire team, but Zack Martin is on the Covid list and his participation is a doubt. La'el Collins is questionable too, although Tyron Smith is expected to start, and that may mean the Dallas Offensive Line is a little weaker than they will be when the likes of Martin, Collins and Smith are all on the line together.

It will be a real test of the reserves to control the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, especially against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team off a Super Bowl win and having all of their starters back both on the Offensive and Defensive unit. The pressure the Buccaneers managed to get up front against an injury hit Kansas City Offensive Line in the Super Bowl underlines their ability and the kind of success they can put together in this game as the Buccaneers look to celebrate their Super Bowl win on the same ground where they won their rings.

The Buccaneers Defensive Line were stingy against the run and they will feel they can contain Ezekiel Elliot, while the numbers against the Secondary were as much to do with teams having to throw to keep up with Tampa Bay and because of the inability to move the ball on the ground against them. Dallas have some exceptional Receivers who can make plays for Dak Prescott, but those are all the harder if the Quarter Back is scrambling from trouble while trying to keep his eyes on the prize down the field.

All of the starters are back on the Offensive side of the ball too as I mentioned and Tom Brady showed age is just a number when leading the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl last season. After a slow start, Tom Brady and Bruce Arian did manage to get on the same page and the Offense picked up their level, while Tampa Bay went 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games.

Tampa Bay scored at least thirty points in their last seven games and having the same skill players back can only benefit Tom Brady and the rest of the Offensive unit. There are big expectations of the Buccaneers this season after the successes of 2020 and this looks to be the perfect opponent on which the Buccaneers can make an Offensive statement.

A new Defensive Co-Ordinator has been appointed by Dallas, but Dan Quinn will need some time to find the right systems for the Cowboys. There were some teething problems for a young Secondary in 2020 and much is going to depend on how much they have grown from their experiences, but Dallas are facing up to a powerful Offense in this one.

The Defensive Line did not help as they struggled to control the line of scrimmage and you can see Tom Brady and his team-mates being able to do what they like as they look to remind the rest of the NFL that they may be the team to beat again.

Tampa Bay have covered in their last six at home and three of those came in the situation of being the favourite.

They are also facing a Dallas Cowboys team who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog and I do think Tampa Bay will have too much scoring for their visitors in a party atmosphere as the fans return to pay tribute to their Super Bowl Champions. A backdoor cover is a concern with the spread where it is and with a Dallas Offense that can be very good when Dak Prescott is at his best, but the Offensive Line issues suggests the Buccaneers can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to open the season with a win and a good looking one too.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Day 13 Tennis Picks- Women's Final 2020 (September 12th)

The lack of fans has perhaps been a blow to the atmosphere in some of the matches played at the US Open this year, but the tournament in general has been pretty decent.

A new Men's Grand Slam Champion will be crowned on Sunday so perhaps a new challenger can emerge to take on the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer over the next several months, while the Women's Final looks like a top one between a potential new dominant Champion and a former one rediscovering her best tennis.

Both Finals should be decent viewing up against some big competition with the NBA PlayOffs continuing and the majority of the Week 1 of the NFL games scheduled to be played in and around these US Open Finals.

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: A withdrawal ahead of the 'Cincinnati' Masters Final means we were not able to see Naomi Osaka versus Victoria Azarenka a couple of weeks ago, but the two players clearly in the best form have managed to work their way through to the Final of the US Open.

Both Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka have deserved to work their way through the draws as they have and both have had to dig in to win Semi Final matches in three sets on Thursday. I don't think there are going to be any issues with fatigue as both have been able to work their way through the previous six matches in largely dominant fashion, although one very slight edge may work in favour of Victoria Azarenka.

While she has dropped just two sets in the tournament compared with the three sets dropped by Naomi Osaka, Victoria Azarenka has had to come from behind to win both of those matches. On the other hand Osaka has dropped her sets after winning the first set and that may mean Azarenka has a very slight edge in mentality if she loses the opening set on Saturday compared with Naomi Osaka.

It's a very slight edge because I do think Naomi Osaka is playing at a very high level and do lean towards the favourite. She has been serving massively throughout the tournament and we did see Serena Williams put Victoria Azarenka under pressure with the serve in the first set and for parts of the remainder of that Semi Final on Thursday.

Serena Williams just doesn't have the same kind of movement as Naomi Osaka at this stage of her career and I do think the Japanese star can back up those big serves with consistent and big groundstrokes. That is not taking anything away from Victoria Azarenka's return game, but I do think Osaka can out-hit her following the first strike that her big serves tend to give her.

The Azarenka serve is also nothing like the big Jennifer Brady serve that Osaka dealt with in the Semi Final she played and other than that she has been able to really get her teeth into the return games played previously. While I am not disputing that Azarenka is perhaps the stronger returner, I do think her serve is not going to prevent Naomi Osaka from cracking through some heavy returns which puts her on the front foot in rallies and that is where she can earn the edge.

It should be a really good Final and I would be disappointed if there were not some twists and turns in the encounter. Naomi Osaka clearly doesn't forget previous losses easily if judging by her comments following a first win over Shelby Rogers, and I do think she will remember the 1 and 1 defeat to Victoria Azarenka at the Australian Open in January 2016.

Since then Naomi Osaka has won two clay court matches against Victoria Azarenka on what is the weakest surface for both players, and it is Osaka who has created the majority of the break points in those wins. I think that is likely going to be the case in the US Open Final and that should lead to Naomi Osaka winning a third Grand Slam and her second one here at Flushing Meadows.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 42-38, - 2.21 Units (160 Units Staked, - 1.38% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (September 12-14)

I always felt the six weeks between the end of the 2019/20 Premier League season and the start of the 2020/21 would fly by, but even then the new season has snuck up on me in the same way the NFL season has done.

With the European competitions being completed in August, it did mean the Premier League offered Manchester City and Manchester United the chance to have an extra week to prepare for the season and that means those two teams along with Burnley and Aston Villa are not going to be in action this weekend.

Even then, there are eight Premier League matches to come this week and, importantly, the Fantasy Football Game is back with GW1 ready to go.

I have a few thoughts about the opening week of the season which you can read below once I put down my thoughts as to how the weekend Premier League games will go.

Fulham v Arsenal Pick: After a very short off-season the Premier League is back in action on Saturday as Arsenal make a relatively short trip across London to take on newly-promoted Fulham at Craven Cottage.

Both of these clubs enjoyed plenty of success at Wembley Stadium last month as Fulham earned their spot in the top flight through the Play Off Final just days after Arsenal won the FA Cup. The Gunners have also won the Community Shield in the national Stadium a couple of weeks ago and the Mikel Arteta era is beginning to take shape with some interesting signings made.

A couple of youngsters may take over in key defensive positions, but keeping Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks to have been the crucial piece of business done this off-season. Signing Willian will give the squad some experience too and Arsenal have produced some big results under their Spanish manager.

However there are some questions about a team that only won 4 of 19 away Premier League games last season. The Gunners have to be much stronger than that if they are going to bridge the 10 point gap that existed at the end of last season between Arsenal and the Champions League spots and the improvement has to be shown right at the beginning of the 2020/21 campaign.

I do think Arsenal have the attacking players to make hay at Craven Cottage where they have enjoyed visiting in recent times. There are a number of members of the squad who would have been involved in the 1-5 win on this ground a little under two years ago and I do think Fulham have a squad that looks short of the quality needed to survive, at least at this point.

Scott Parker will believe he has the time to still bring in the players that can make the difference for Fulham, but I do think they will find it difficult to contain a team like Arsenal who have pace and quality in the final third.

You do have to wonder how players will cope with what has been a very short time between seasons, but both of these groups should come into the fixture with confidence. I think that could produce a decent game of football even without the fans and I believe that Arsenal will edge a high-scoring fixture.

Fulham were decent here in the Championship, but the step up in class is likely going to be telling for much of the season barring some real quality being signed before the end of the transfer window. Any signings to be made might be accelerated forward if Fulham struggle on Saturday and I do think Arsenal win a fixture featuring at least two goals.

Crystal Palace v Southampton Pick: These two teams are both trendy picks for the new Premier League season- the form shown since the resumption of play means plenty are tipping up Crystal Palace for relegation and Southampton for a top half finish and perhaps even a push for Europe.

Roy Hodgson is a very strong manager and he will extract all he can from the Crystal Palace squad, but much is going to depend on whether he can find a consistent path to goal from somewhere. That is never easy, but Crystal Palace have signed players to try and produce in the final third, although the key for the club is holding onto Wilfried Zaha if possible.

Zaha has been linked with a move away and while the transfer window is open there is going to be a fear that he will finally get his wish.

That uncertainty won't help the Crystal Palace squad which had lost 7 straight Premier League games before a 1-1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur. Now they have to take on a Southampton team who had the 4th best record in the Premier League after the three month suspension of the season came to an end.

Southampton have not really strengthened the squad as much as they would have liked, but there is quality available to Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Austrian manager has gotten plenty out of his players in the squad and a rejuvenated Danny Ings provides the end product to the strong football played by The Saints.

This is a team that have loved playing away from home with 9 wins from 19 games on their travels in the League and Southampton have won 3 in a row on this ground. The injuries at the back will make Crystal Palace vulnerable to the upset here and there are plenty backing Southampton to secure the three points here.

It is early in the season though and I do think Crystal Palace are a team that need to be respected thanks to a manager who will make it hard to break his team down. However, I do believe Southampton could have a very good season and I will get behind them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.

Liverpool v Leeds United Pick: It wasn't much fun being a Manchester United fan in a season in which Liverpool and Leeds United had as much success as they did and both clubs will believe they can follow on the 2019/20 campaign with a successful 2020/21.

Liverpool can go into the season as English Champions for the first time in thirty years and they will host Leeds United who have had sixteen years outside of the top flight.

While the hosts will be looking to repeat, the expectation around Leeds United means the fans are hoping to do more than merely survive at this level. With Marcelo Bielsa in charge there is a feeling that Leeds United could even push for a top half finish, but much is going to depend on Rodrigo and whether he has the goals to push Leeds United forward.

This is a very big test for Leeds United against a very good Liverpool team who were not playing as poorly as the results would suggest back in June and July. There was a slight drop off in intensity, but Liverpool were still creating chances and their front three should be rested and ready to compete in this opening weekend fixture.

The absence of Jordan Henderson hurt the side more than expected though and he looks like he could be missing for this fixture. That will offer Leeds United encouragement as will playing in front of an empty Anfield, but even then there is a big step up of class for the visitors to deal with.

We know Bielsa will have Leeds United very well prepared, and that does make them dangerous, but I think Liverpool will be ready to show that the end of last season was just a blip and not an extended issue for the squad to deal with. It should be a good football match with both looking to get forward and cause problems for the opponent, but Liverpool should have a little too much quality when all is said and done.

West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Two clubs with fan bases who can sometimes have unrealistic expectations meet on the opening weekend of the 2020/21 Premier League season- both David Moyes and Steve Bruce will likely snap your hand off if you gave West Ham United and Newcastle United a 17th place finish at the end of this campaign, but fans expect the clubs to be operating much higher up the League table.

Mike Ashley was almost finally out of the club, but Newcastle United remain in his control and that means another difficult season is likely in front of the club. Steve Bruce did a fine job for the club last season, but his football is not always appreciated and Bruce has yet to truly win over the fans.

David Moyes is another manager whose football is not always appreciated, but his West Ham United team did end last season in fine form and that will be encouraging to him.

However, things are clearly not going smoothly at the London Stadium judging by captain Mark Noble making his feelings known about the sale of Grady Diangana. Bids have been made to improve the squad, but at the moment West Ham United are going into the new season with what they have.

That is a slight concern for the fans, but West Ham United do have some quality players in the squad who have perhaps underachieved. If Moyes can get those performing to the level they can reach, then West Ham United should feel good about their chances when it comes to avoiding the drop to the Championship.

Newcastle United have had a decent window and bringing in the likes of Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are decent signings on the budget on which they are operating. Last season Steve Bruce showed he can make his team more than the sum of their parts and there is some pace and quality in the final third which could cause problems for opponents.

However, the defence is vulnerable and even more so without Martin Dubravka keeping goal and I think that is where the home team might have the narrow edge. West Ham United should have won at St James' Park back in July having twice led on the day, and I think being at home will give them more of an opportunity even without the fans in attendance.

It is the first game of the season though and opening weekend results can be a little eye-catching. The home team should be good enough to earn the points here, but the Asian Handicap may be the best approach to this fixture.

West Brom v Leicester City Pick: The first 'Super Sunday' Premier League fixture of the season comes from The Hawthorns as newly-promoted West Brom host Leicester City.

Slaven Bilic's men almost backed their way back into the Premier League from the Championship having failed to win any of their last 4 games to give the likes of Brentford and Fulham an opportunity. That does mean the team perhaps does not come into the new season with the same kind of momentum as some other promoted clubs do, while West Brom still need to address the main problem of looking like a squad that does not have enough goals in them.

Being at home should give West Brom a chance to get off to a good start, but we are still without fans and this Leicester City do have quality despite their poor end to the 2019/20 campaign.

The 3 losses in their last 5 Premier League games means Leicester City missed out on a return to the Champions League, but Brendan Rodgers will have been reminding his squad that they achieved their goal of returning to European Football. The absence of James Maddison did hurt Leicester City down the stretch, but the England international may not be available this weekend either and that is a concern.

Leicester City have not won any of their last 8 away games in all competitions but they were playing better than the results would suggest. There looks to be a continuity with the squad that should see them have another decent campaign even though Ben Chilwell has been moved on, and I think Leicester City do have more goals in their squad than West Brom.

Neither team ended the last season in the manner they would have wanted, but a new campaign comes with new hopes and dreams and I think Leicester City will edge to the three points at The Hawthorns.

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: Both Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti are shaping their respective Tottenham Hotspur and Everton squads up to their liking and that does mean there is a greater sense of expectation around them.

After missing out on the Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur have to be looking to push their way back in alongside the elite of European Football, while Everton will be hoping to be the 'best of the rest' and challenge for silverware and a return to any European competition.

There is an excitement around both squads with some of the new faces arriving to freshen things up and I do think we could see a decent game on Sunday afternoon. The short turnaround between seasons is going to be a challenge for every club to deal with, but it may also mean some of the players can get off and running quicker than they may do in usual seasons.

When these teams met after the resumption of the Premier League it was a very poor game of football that ended 1-0 in favour of Tottenham Hotspur. However, the home team look in a healthier place now and Everton have brought in some quality that could make them much more competitive even against the better teams in the Premier League.

The midfield reinforcements should offer a lot more protection for Everton this season and I do think James Rodriguez will add some quality to the forward line along with Richarlison. However new signings can take time to bed in and that is where Tottenham Hotspur have a little more continuity in their squad that can see them edge to the points here.

It should be a much better game than the one we saw here in early July, but Tottenham Hotspur managed to do enough to earn the three points on that occasion and I think they can do the same here. With a fully fit squad to choose from, Jose Mourinho can lead his team to a good start to the season and the fixtures over the coming weeks are certainly in Tottenham Hotspur's favour too.

Sheffield United v Wolves Pick: It was a game of limited chances when Sheffield United hosted Wolves in early July and I do think we could see something similar when they meet on the opening weekend of the new Premier League season.

Chris Wilder and Nuno Espirito Santo have to be given a lot of credit for the organisation of their respective teams and they won't have moved too far away from their principles.

I do think the loss of Dean Henderson will hurt Sheffield United as Aaron Ramsdale is simply not the same level of goalkeeper and that may make The Blades a little more vulnerable. However, Wolves are coming in off a long season and the squad is missing key players having sold Matt Doherty and lost Jonny to a long-term injury.

Both clubs are not going to be lacking for effort, but creating chances against the other is going to be a difficult challenge. I do think both Sheffield United and Wolves could be dangerous from set piece situations and that might be the best way to break open this fixture, but chances may be difficult to come by in open play and that could mean goals are at a premium.

We saw a couple of tight and competitive fixtures when these two teams met in the League last season and I do think we will see more of the same. There was a more open feel to the fixture at Molineux, but I imagine this one to follow the patter of the fixture played at Bramall Lane in early July and that is both teams looking to be well organised and hard to break down.

The layers have shortened the price of one, or both, of these teams failing to score on Monday, but it may still be the best way to approach the fixture. Some may want the small interest in a 1-1 correct score to cover the selection as that looks the most likely score if both teams do find the net.

Brighton v Chelsea Pick: The final game of the opening weekend of the Premier League comes from the Amex Stadium where Brighton and Chelsea actually played a friendly in front of a limited crowd in the last couple of weeks.

This time there will be no fans inside the Stadium and I do think the new look Chelsea team might have too much attacking threat for their hosts to cope with.

That is no disrespect to Brighton, but Graham Potter's style does mean they are a little more open and they simply do not score the same amount of goals as those teams at the top. Since the resumption of the Premier League Brighton have lost home games to Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City and they conceded at least three times in each of those defeats.

Now they have to face another team that finished inside the top four of the Premier League table and the only real doubt around Chelsea is how quickly some of the talented players they have purchased will settle in. I don't doubt Ben Chilwell, but the likes of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz are coming in from outside of England and it can be an eye-opening experience for youngsters that have not dealt with this League before.

Even then I do think Werner and Havertz will have a big impact on this Chelsea squad, while the return of Christian Pulisic is a huge boost for Frank Lampard. The American looked to playing at a very high level before an injury in the FA Cup Final, but he is not expected to miss time and looks to be a key threat for Chelsea who will provide the chances for Werner.

A deeper looking squad should have too much attacking intent for Brighton who will try and get forward. They might even have some success against this Chelsea backline which will look similar to the one that started games last season, but I would think Frank Lampard's men will find their way into the final third effectively and can eventually break down Brighton.

The fixture here did end 1-1 last season, and Brighton played well on the day. However, I think this Chelsea team is much improved and I believe they win fairly comfortably ahead of a big League game against Liverpool to come next weekend.

MY PICKS: Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals

Southampton 0 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur

Sheffield United-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO

Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 1

Unbelievably we are just hours away from the Official Fantasy Football game to be live once again with GameWeek 1 of the competition starting on Saturday.

The season is scheduled to be a very tight one which means it is going to be difficult to manage our Fantasy squads as much as it is going to be for the managers in reality. Through to the end of January it feels like the top clubs will be playing twice a week barring the international breaks in October and November and that is likely going to mean heavy rotation especially as the vote came back to restore the maximum of three substitutions per game rather than the five subs that were allowed following the resumption of the Premier League in June.

While I am planning on keeping my main chips in hand until the second half of the season when they can have the biggest impact, I do think there is a chance that my first Wild Card of the season will be used sooner rather than later.

That is mainly down to the fact that the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City are not in action on the first weekend and they have some very good looking assets that would usually have been part of the squad.

At this stage I don't think it would surprise anyone to learn that I am still making vast changes to my squad, but I will say there are four names that I would think are almost certainly going to be selected in Week 1.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Timo Werner are those names and I do think it would take a real change in my approach to see any of those dropped with the deadline just hours away.

Teams I do think are worth getting behind early in the season are Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Southampton and I would love to get through the early weeks without taking a hit to my total.

Chelsea are another team that look to be benefiting from their early fixture list, but like many I think I will be looking at various options right up until the 11am deadline.

NFL Week 2 Picks 2019 (September 12-16)

It might not have been a very good week for the NFL Picks, but I have to say it is great to have Sunday evenings back reserved for the League and knowing that will keep me ticking over for the next several months.

I love College Football too, but Saturday's can be a little busier to sit down and enjoy hours of the games on that day. Instead I tend to see the late primetime game and catch some of the 8:30pm kick offs (UK time), but Sunday is a day to lounge in the evening and that means watching a lot of Football.

There were some upsets and some blow outs in Week 1 of the NFL, but you don't want to be someone who makes grand overreactions to what you have seen. I will have a few thoughts down below before we get into the Week 2 Picks and my top five and bottom five teams, although again I would not want anyone to believe those are set in stone with injuries and a quick turn in form very possible at this time of the season.

Cleveland Browns are going to finish under 0.500- going into the new season, the Cleveland Browns had to be seen as a lively contender in the NFL this year after making some huge moves in the off-season. Many would have been tipping them up to win the AFC North and they would also have been seen as a real challenger to the New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl.

A blow out home defeat to the Tennessee Titans would certainly have been an eye-opener for many, but that was a very difficult Week 1 game against a tough organisation who would have made it a scrap. Even then it was a game in the balance until Baker Mayfield got himself a little flustered and started turning the ball over and things would have felt a lot different if Cleveland had managed to sneak away with a win that was entirely possible going into the Fourth Quarter.

It would be easy to write off the Browns as being the same old team that struggles to compete, but there is too much talent here to think Week 1 will define their season. There was always the possibility that Cleveland would not be able to put it all together, but I expect a reaction from them and getting into the Bye Week at 3-3 would give them every chance to build some momentum into the rest of the regular season.

This week is a big game for Cleveland as they face another team who were upset in the opening week of the 2019 season and the Monday Night Football lights will be on them. The Dawg Pound will be hoping this will be the time they can remove the paper bags from their heads and be very proud of their team, but if the Browns fall to 0-2 I can see some major questions and decisions being asked and made.

Miami Dolphins might be the worst team in NFL history- this is a franchise which is the only one to have completed an unbeaten season in the NFL, but the current Miami Dolphins are a long way from that.

They looked completely disinterested when allowing the Baltimore Ravens to destroy them in Week 1 and now face the New England Patriots who could have Antonio Brown lined up for them.

Suggestions that there has been a mutiny with players demanding a trade away after the collapse against Baltimore did make me laugh... Miami have already traded away all of their best players aside from Xavien Howard, and so I would love to know which players have been on to their agents outside of the Corner Back who just signed a huge new deal with the Fins.

This looked a bad team before the season started and if the Secondary, which is the strength of the team, continues to perform at the level they did last week this is going to be the first franchise to ever have an unbeaten season and a winless season.

As a Dolphins fan I didn't expect much else, but there is light at the end of this miserable tunnel. If Miami can end up with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the Draft, they can begin to turn things around with the host of Picks they have stocked up and I would expect a much more competitive team in 2020.

Personally I would trade down from the Number 1 Pick and stock enough Draft Picks to have a chance of bringing in Trevor Lawrence in 2021, but I am not sure Miami fans will be looking to tank in back to back seasons before seeing a reason behind it. Either way, 2019 is going to be a miserable season in which one win will be tough to find if the effort does not improve significantly.

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game is inevitable- if these two teams steer clear of injury I do think it is very difficult to see another team that can prevent them from making it consecutive AFC Championship Games against one another.

Last season the Patriots won on the road at Arrowhead so the one change I am anticipating is the venue, but New England and Kansas City look way ahead of the chasing pack in this Conference.

Inevitable is a strong word though- last week we saw Patrick Mahomes take a big hit and have to come to the sidelines to get checked out and an injury to either starting Quarter Back would send these teams back to the middle of the pack. The NFL season is a long, arduous one, and injuries can prove to be the key difference between those teams who make the Super Bowl and those who are also-rans, but I had these teams as the top two in the AFC before a Down had been played and I haven't seen anything to change my mind.

What to make of Antonio Brown?- Add in the fact that the Patriots have picked up Antonio Brown after his release from the Oakland Raiders and you have a potent Offense which is backed up by a better than expected Defensive unit.

Rob Gronkowski returning at some point this season would surprise no one, but it isn't all plain-sailing in the New England waters.

Antonio Brown might have signed, but it has since come out that he has been accused of sexual assault which leaves his participation clouded as the NFL work out their options. This is the latest of another controversy surrounding the Wide Receiver ever since he was traded to the Oakland Raiders from the Pittsburgh Steelers and the new story has covered up some of the suggestions that Brown and New England were in cahoots in bringing his time at Oakland to an end.

I do think there is a very fishy smell about how it all went down, but it might be a moot point if the assault is proven as I think that could spell the end of Brown's season before he has played a Down in the regular season.

I used to really respect Brown, but it is hard to do that considering all of the issues created over the last couple of months. You are innocent until proven guilty, but this assault complaint is the last thing he needed to add to his issues and it is very difficult to root for someone like this compared others around the League.

AB is not going to care what I think anyway, but that is beyond the point.

My Top Five

1) New England Patriots- the Super Bowl Champions who will be even more dangerous if Antonio Brown is cleared to play. Hard to see them beaten if they get to host the PlayOffs in January.

2) Dallas Cowboys- might be a strange choice at this high, but I think Dallas have all the tools to be the team to beat in the NFC this season. They will be challenged by the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints, but the Cowboys look strong on both sides of the ball and I would favour them against all three if they were to host the PlayOffs.

3) Kansas City Chiefs- there are some questions Defensively, but as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs can score enough points to beat any team in the NFL. Tyreek Hill is out for a few weeks so I am interested to see if that has any impact on this team which will be something to keep in mind for later in the season.

4) Philadelphia Eagles- I loved the Eagles before Week 1 and I still think they are going to be there or thereabouts come the end of January. Carson Wentz needs to stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in each of the last two seasons, and the Secondary needs to play better, but the Eagles are a team that will be very dangerous if they make the post-season.

5) Green Bay Packers- we are going to find out plenty about the Packers in the weeks ahead considering the schedule, but if it really was the Defense's performance and not the week Chicago Offense that saw them give up just three points in Week 1, Green Bay are a live contender in the NFC.

My Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins- I expect I will be able to copy and paste this every week.

31) Arizona Cardinals- Kyler Murray had three poor Quarters and then exploded to help the Cardinals finish with a tie with the Detroit Lions. However I do have to think we are going to see more of the early play from the rookie and it could hold the Cardinals back.

30) New York Giants- I do think it is a matter of time before Daniel Jones takes over from Eli Manning as starting Quarter Back, but the Giants won't be competitive unless they play much better Defense than they did in Week 1.

29) New York Jets- not a good time to be a fan of either team from Gotham, especially after seeing the Jets blow a 16-0 lead against Divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars- I will hold my hands up and admit I thought the Jaguars could win the AFC South this season. But Nick Foles has gone down in what looks a long-term injury which means a rookie Quarter Back coming in, and I fear this may be a season that is lost much like those spent believing in Blake Bortles.

Week 2 Picks

It says something about my expectations that I end Week 1 with a 4-4 record and I am disappointed with the way the NFL Picks went. It was actually a winning record because of the split of the units, but I think it could have been a lot better if one or two things had broken my way.

The Washington Redskins Touchdown with 6 seconds left on the clock was irritating considering they converted two Fourth and longs on the drive. It was also the second time a team had thrown a backdoor cover against my pick in two days (Texas A&M the other) which was a blow.

Carolina also had their chances in their defeat to the Los Angeles Rams, although I was miles off the mark when it came to the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars. Thankfully I had only one unit on the latter and so it turned into a positive week for the Picks, but one I am looking to improve on the several months ahead.

Week 2 begins with a Divisional battle between two 0-1 teams and ends on Monday Night Football with two more losing teams taking each other on. At this stage you can't secure PlayOff spots, but you can certainly put yourself in an early hole so look out for some tense Football games to be played in the days ahead.

It is the Panthers hosting Tampa Bay where Thursday Night Football heads in Week 2, but the line looks right on the money and I really can't find myself leaning one way or the other. I have to expect the Buccaneers to be better than what they showed in Week 1, but Carolina are desperate off a loss too and neither team has played as well on Thursday as they would have liked.

The Picks from the Sunday and Monday offerings will be found below and I will add them when I can over the next couple of days.


Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It would be very easy for people to draw a line through the Pittsburgh Steelers and suggest they are not the team they used to be now both Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell have left and coming off a Week 1 blow out at the hands of the New England Patriots.

However I don't think this is the time for grand sweeping statements about a team and I do think the Steelers are just simply not built to match up well with the Patriots. This week they are facing a team who are not up to the same level as the Super Bowl Champions and I also know the Steelers are usually far better at home than they are on the road.

The Seattle Seahawks arrive in town off the back of a very narrow win over the Cincinnati Bengals, a game in which they could have easily been beaten. At least the Seahawks have found a way to get to 1-0, but this is not an ideal spot for them facing an irritated Pittsburgh team and also playing in the early Eastern Time slot.

It says a lot about the performance last week that the Seattle Seahawks actually finished with almost 200 fewer yards than the Bengals. Russell Wilson will always give the Seahawks a chance in games, but he does not have the most effective supporting cast on either side of the ball and I do think that is something we will see on Sunday.

Offensively they have lost Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson which means a new Wide Receiver or two are going to have to step up for Wilson. Unfortunately he is not expected to have a lot of support on the ground with Chris Carson likely to be running to a pretty strong Steel Curtain on the Defensive Line and keeping Seattle in third and long spots will give the Steelers every chance to get after Wilson at Quarter Back.

The Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and last week the Bengals took full advantage. We didn't see the Pittsburgh Defense have much success in Week 1, but Tom Brady is much better protected and I would expect the Steelers to stall some drives with the pass rush forcing Wilson to release the ball quicker than he wants and asking Receivers to win battles they are perhaps not ready to do right now.

Pittsburgh don't have a great Defensive unit and they are coming off an outing where they allowed over 350 passing yards, but I expect the pass rush pressure to help the Secondary make some plays here. That could be important to get the Seahawks off the field and give the ball back to Ben Roethlisberger who was highly critical of his own performance last week.

Losing Bell and Brown was always going to have an impact on the Steelers, but James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are ready to step in. Connor had a big year in 2018 with almost 1000 yards on the ground and Smith-Schuster was the top Receiver with the team, although facing off against the Number 1 Corner Back from the opposition is going to be a new challenge for him.

Both came out of Week 1 a little banged up, but both are also expected to suit up in this one. James Connor did not have a very good game against New England and Seattle's Defensive Line played pretty well in Week 1, but I still believe this Pittsburgh team can establish the run through their main workhorse in the backfield.

I also am expecting to see a much better performance from Smith-Schuster assuming he is close to 100% after hurting his toe last week. The Seattle Secondary made some awful plays against much weaker Receivers than the young Smith-Schuster in Week 1 and I do think Roethlisberger will be much more effective at getting the ball out to the new Number 1 Receiver in Steel City.

In Week 1 Andy Dalton had almost 400 passing yards against Seattle despite missing AJ Green and I do think the whole Steelers Offense will look much better in Week 2 compared with their efforts on Sunday Night Football. They do need another Receiver to step up and open things up for Smith-Schuster, but there is some talent here and I am looking for the home team to bounce back and get back to 1-1.

The spread won't be easy to cover because of the issues the Pittsburgh Secondary are going to have for much of the season. Russell Wilson might then have a chance for a late drive to earn a backdoor cover, but I think this is going to be a big bounce back spot for the Steelers and I am looking for them to win and cover the number.

The favourite has covered in five straight games in the series between these teams, although it is one that is played every four years so not largely relevant. There is one trend that really does bother me about the Steelers, but I expect them to be very focused in this one coming in off a loss where they do have a strong record as a home favourite, while also being 39-27 against the spread coming in off a loss under Mike Tomlin.

Ben Roethlisberger is 45-32 against the spread off a straight up loss, while the Seattle Seahawks are 0-8-2 against the spread in their last ten games as non-Conference road underdogs of less than 7 points. I think the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be key to stopping the Seahawks and I do think the Steelers Offense will bounce back from a poor showing in Week 2.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks to be a highly competitive Division and there are three teams who will have felt they can lead the way into the PlayOffs in January.

Two of those met in Week 1 when the Green Bay Packers started the season with a 1-0 record thanks to a win over the Chicago Bears. By the end of Week 2 the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, who beat Atlanta in Week 1, will be the only team with a 100% record (assuming no tie like last season) in the NFC North.

Both teams are going to be looking for the Defensive units to be the key to the outcome of this game after both restricted opponents in Week 1. That means they are asking their current Offenses to do just enough to win games and it was certainly the case last week as neither team got close to reaching 300 total yards from an Offensive standpoint yet still managed to head into Week 2 with 1-0 record.

For a long time in Week 1 the Minnesota Vikings managed the lead they had and both of these teams will know there is some real room for improvement. Both were actually outgained in terms of yardage in Week 1 and that is not a sustainable way to go on and keep winning games and you can see the layers are not finding it easy to separate the teams with Green Bay favoured thanks to being at home.

I was behind the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and they can really build some momentum over the coming weeks if they can win this game. Five of the six games will be played at home, but Aaron Rodgers and the Offensive unit have to get on the same page if they have serious ambitions of putting a strong winning start on the board with a difficult schedule ahead.

There might be a feeling that Green Bay can get a little more going Offensively having played on Thursday in Week 1 and having a couple of extra days to prepare for this one. I expect to see a little more out of Aaron Jones and the running game for the Packers after some of the difficulties the Vikings had up front in Week 1 and that is going to be important for Green Bay in being able to give Aaron Rodgers the best chance to move the chains.

Last week the Chicago Bears were able to get to Rodgers in passing downs and the Vikings were also very good with the pass rush in their win over the Falcons. If the run can be established then at least the pass rush is slowed down enough for Rodgers to set up play-action and to throw into a Secondary which gave up 272 passing yards to Matt Ryan in Week 1.

Davante Adams is the key for Green Bay, but they do have younger Receivers who can step up as long as Aaron Rodgers has the time to make plays and I do anticipate the Packers having success moving the chains.

It feels like they will have more success than the Minnesota Vikings despite what looks a big win on paper against the Falcons last week. Dalvin Cook was a huge influence on the day, but running the ball against the Green Bay Packers might be a difficulty for every team around the League and that could be very important on the day.

Unbelievably Minnesota scored 28 points last week despite Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 100 passing yards. Head Coach Mike Zimmer does want the Vikings to be a smash-mouth team that can run the ball effectively, but if the Packers can at least put the clamps on Cook it will have to be a change of tactics from the visitors and the responsibility of moving the chains will be shouldered by the arm of Cousins.

The Quarter Back was largely well protected last week, but some of that was down to not throwing the ball and the run constantly hurting the Falcons. This week will be different with the Packers likely to unleash a strong pass rush to get into the face of Kirk Cousins and I do think that can help them stall drives and perhaps even lead to a mistake or two from a turnover-prone QB.

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have to be respected as Wide Receivers, but the Packers might have one of the more under-rated Defenses in the NFC and I expect them to make enough plays to slow down the Vikings. Kirk Cousins will take risks and some will pay off, but I would not be surprised if a critical turnover or two costs the Vikings here, especially alongside what I believe will be a more effective Offensive outing from Green Bay.

Green Bay have lost three of their last four against Minnesota, but Aaron Rodgers is 36-29 against the spread playing with revenge and is also 46-28 against the spread as the home favourite. The Packers are 11-1 against the spread as favourites of less than 8 points off a Divisional game and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight following a game against their rivals Chicago.

The Packers are also 10-1 against the spread when favourites in a Divisional game immediately following a Divisional game and playing a rival who have won a non-Divisional game.

In the first quarter of a season the Vikings are 2-11 against the spread as road underdogs when playing an opponent off a Divisional game. While I like Minnesota as a team, I think the Green Bay Defense is going to be the better of the two units on the day and I think that will give the Packers the edge as they win and cover at home.

It can only be seen as a bonus that the Vikings are getting more of the money in Vegas so far, although I doubt this spread gets any lower than where it stands now.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Two AFC South teams who started the season 0-1 meet in Week 2 and it is a big game with an open Division very much up for grabs. I would not rule out either the Jacksonville Jaguars nor the Houston Texans from recovering from 0-2, but both Head Coaches will be keen to avoid having to find out when they meet in Houston on Sunday.

Later this season these two teams will head to London to face one another, but that is for another as they look to recover from opening defeats. The Houston Texans might have had the more heartbreaking of the losses having given up a Field Goal with time running out on Monday Night Football at the New Orleans Saints, but the devastating injury suffered by Nick Foles of the Jacksonville Jaguars makes it difficult to know how they are going to recover.

Nick Foles had been signed by the Jaguars to help them move to the next level with the fans and the Coaches finally having enough of Blake Bortles. Having a Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously an upgrade, but the injury suffered in the blow out defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs at home has set them back.

Gardner Minshew had to come in for Foles last week and while performing well enough, it is a significant pressure for a rookie to be given the keys to a team that were hoping for a PlayOff spot as a bare minimum. He might be able to have some success if Leonard Fournette can back up his strong performance in Week 1 when averaging 5 yards per carry against the Chiefs.

That is not going to be easy for the Jaguars to have the run established when you think the Houston Texans have been one of the stronger teams against the rush in 2018. They did struggle against the New Orleans Saints, but Alvin Kamara is a special Running Back and the respect for Drew Brees is unlikely to be replicated in this game as the Texans try and take away a key player for Gardner Minshew.

The Quarter Back may have some success throwing the ball, but I also think he is going to be dealing with plenty of pressure up front if the Jaguars are not able to run the ball as they would like. Houston might have traded away Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt is coming in off a quiet week, but the Texans should have more successes getting after Minshew whenever he is in third and long spots and I do think Houston can slow down this Offensive outfit, especially one led by a rookie Quarter Back who was a project selection rather than one expected to challenge for a starting role in 2019.

As long as Houston respect the situation that is in front of them they should have a chance of restricting the Jaguars Offensively. It will be a different challenge on the other side of the ball for the Texans even with one of the most improving Quarter Backs in the NFL on their side.

Deshaun Watson had a strong outing against the New Orleans Saints and almost did enough to lead the Houston Texans to a win, but the Offensive Line is still a major issue for this team. He will be looking for Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson to pick up from where they left off against the Saints when they had a very strong day running the ball and putting the Texans ahead of the chains will be crucial in moving into a position to win this game.

They had a bad day in the office as they allowed six Sacks to the Saints, but the Offensive Line were better in setting up the run and I think they can get the chains moving on the ground in this one. Deshaun Watson is another who can make plays with his legs as his Touchdown against the Saints showed, but he did bang up his back in that run and Houston will be better served looking for the Quarter Back to protect himself having had injuries in each of the last two seasons.

Watson should be able to make some big plays against the Jaguars Secondary which did not perform anywhere near the standard they should have been at in their Week 1 loss. I can expect the Jaguars to want to step up their play to try and protect their rookie Quarter Back, but Watson is a stand out Quarter Back who has some big weapons in the passing game that will become all the more dangerous if Houston are running the ball effectively.

Houston beat the Jaguars in both Divisional games in 2018 and limited them to 10 total points in those games. I like the Texans to continue their dominance of the Jaguars with the desperation of wanting to avoid a 0-2 hole keeping them focused against an opponent missing their starting Quarter Back.

Deshaun Watson is 5-2 against the spread off a loss and he has been solid enough in Divisional games where he has helped the Texans produce a 5-3 record against the spread. The Texans are 23-14 against the spread as the home favourite coming in off a loss.

The recent trends for the Jaguars don't make good reading and being able to oppose where the action has been for this Week 2 game makes me very satisfied in backing the Houston Texans to win and cover a big mark.


San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The San Francisco 49ers used some big plays from their Defensive unit to come up with a big win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, but they are going to need more from the Offensive side of the ball to fulfil predictions of being a dark horse in the NFC.

The spot in Week 2 is not an ideal one as the 49ers play the second of back to back road games and also in the early Eastern Time slot against the Cincinnati Bengals who came close to a big upset in Week 1. The Bengals came up short against the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but they were superior in almost all aspects of the game and very unfortunate to leave the West Coast with a defeat.

It is a new era in Cincinnati who are now Coached by Zac Taylor in place of Marvin Lewis and he was pretty critical of the performance in Week 1 despite the Bengals coming as close to the upset as they got. There are areas on the Offensive side of the ball that Taylor will want to see cleared up and Andy Dalton does have an opportunity to back up his personal performance in the opening game when facing this 49ers Defense.

Dalton will be keen to have Joe Mixon on the field after the Running Back suffered an injury in the loss to Seattle. The participation of Mixon will become clearer in the next couple of days, but it does feel like he is going to miss out and so Cincinnati are going to need someone to step up to try and keep the Offense in front of the chains in this one.

That is quite important for the Bengals, but the Offensive Line is one that has a lot of work to do to get together. It was not only rushing the ball that was difficult for Cincinnati last week, but they struggled to protect Dalton as they would have wanted to which is going to be an issue against the 49ers pass rush that has been revitalised with Draft Picks and Free Agent signings.

Andy Dalton did have a very good passing game last week though and he should have some success against this 49ers Secondary which is not as good as it might have looked in Week 1. Richard Sherman is still a strong Corner Back, but outside of him there are some holes that can be exploited and I think Dalton can have success even without AJ Green.

If it wasn't for some of the turnovers in the win over Tampa Bay, San Francisco might have had a few more questions to answer about their Offensive unit and Jimmy Garoppolo in particular. The Quarter Back is coming off a major knee injury, and he has not looked right in practice, pre-season or in Week 1 of the season when he would have expected to have a decent match up against the Tampa Bay Secondary.

Garoppolo was held to under 160 passing yards and the 49ers could not get the running game going at all with Tevin Coleman going down with an injury. Now they are going to use Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert in a committee at Running Back, but neither is expected to have a lot of success in this game if the Bengals Defensive Line can pick up from where they left off in the defeat to Seattle.

This is where the strength of the Bengals Defensive unit lies and they will believe they can force San Francisco to have to rely on the arm of Garoppolo to move the chains. With the pass rush looking in good shape in Week 1 and the Secondary looking like it could also be better than some believe, the Bengals will believe they have a team that is set up to win this game even without a key Receiver available.

Turnovers are going to be important, but I think Cincinnati can use the spot to get the better of their visitors. The Defensive unit should be able to restrict what San Francisco are able to do and I think Andy Dalton will be able to make enough plays against the San Francisco Secondary to give his team the chance to move back to 0.500 for the season.

The Bengals are favoured and so far Jimmy Garoppolo has been a Quarter Back you want to back in an underdog role. However I am not convinced he is at 100% following his return from an injury, and the Bengals have improved to 11-2 against the spread when facing NFC opponents in the first quarter of the season.

Playing the early Eastern Time spot after being on the road last week is not ideal for the 49ers either and I think the Bengals can make the plays they need on both sides of the ball to win this one and cover the spread.


Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: Blowing out one Divisional opponent will have gotten the fans behind them, but the Dallas Cowboys will really have the rest of the NFC taking notice if they can beat down another. They are big favourites to do that on the road this week against the Washington Redskins who blew a 17-0 lead in Week 1 to be downed by the Philadelphia Eagles.

Expectations with the Redskins have to be limited when you look at the roster and most are looking forward to seeing Dwayne Haskins taking over at Quarter Back at some point this season. That is not a slight on the Case Keenum performance in Week 1, but most know what they are getting with the veteran and instead it is expected that the keys will be turned over to younger players going foward.

Derrius Guice was supposed to be the start of that at Running Back, but an injury saw him miss his rookie year and the injury bug has bitten again early in 2019. He had made Adrian Peterson a healthy scratch in Week 1, but that won't be the case in Week 2 with Peterson expected to be the feature Running Back and Chris Thompson spotting him in passing downs.

Both Peterson and Thompson could have strong weeks if the Dallas Defensive Line is not significantly better than they were in the win over the New York Giants. The win has to be celebrated, but the Cowboys gave up 151 yards on just 17 carries last week and can expect the Redskins to try and pound the ball behind his makeshift Offensive Line in Week 2.

The Offensive Line issues are a concern for Washington, but I think they can have a better time of it at home and especially knowing they are going to try and lean on Peterson. If the veteran can pick up some big plays on the ground, it will make life all the easier for Case Keenum and allow him to work from third and manageable spots.

It is a key to the chance of success for the Redskins as Keenum will have opportunities to make plays against a Dallas Secondary that gave up over 300 passing yards to Eli Manning and the Giants last week. He will want to get the ball out of his hands quickly so being in short distances for First Downs has to be a benefit for Keenum who could also have Jordan Reed back this week for additional Receiving options.

Sustaining drives will also be key in giving the Washington Defensive unit a chance to rest and recuperate having seen that unit worn down in the loss to the Eagles as the Divisional rivals were able to keep them on the field for long periods while the Washington Offense became bogged down.

Stopping the Dallas Cowboys looks like it could be a big challenge, but you don't want to make sweeping statements from the Week 1 performance. Dak Prescott was very good, but the Washington Redskins Defense look stronger than the one the New York Giants sent out onto the field and they should feel they can at least give the Cowboys something to think about.

The strength of the Redskins is on the Defensive Line and they can at least make Ezekiel Elliot work for his numbers. To be fair to the Giants, they actually played the run pretty well last week and Washington will feel they can follow that blueprint to at least make Dak Prescott beat them with his arm.

Prescott has been given some big Receiving weapons in the last twelve months with Amari Cooper joined by an improving Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and a returning Jason Witten. The Offensive Line might not have opened a lot of holes for big runs, but they did protect their Quarter Back who responded by throwing for over 400 yards and there are some holes in the Washington Secondary that I expect Dak Prescott to expose.

Washington do have a better pass rush than the Giants too, but they might not be able to disrupt Prescott as much as they would like. While they can make some plays on the Defensive side of the ball, the Redskins have to make sure they control the clock as much as possible if they are going to earn the upset at home.

I am not sure that will happen, but I do think the Redskins can keep this one close as they play a second Divisional game of the season. The underdog has a very strong 31-11 record against the spread in the last forty-two between these teams and Case Keenum improved to 16-8 against the spread in the underdog role last week.

Dak Prescott has been very strong in the role of the road favourite which has to be respected, but they are 1-7 against the spread when playing after a game against the New York Giants. I am a little wary about how well Dallas have played against their Divisional rivals in the last two seasons and they improved to 11-2 against the spread in their last thirteen Divisional games, but Washington can provide enough Offensive output of their own to keep the game close.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders Pick: A major Offensive weapon is going to be missing for a few weeks for the Kansas City Chiefs, but in an alternative reality it would have been Patrick Mahomes going down instead of Tyreek Hill. I have no doubt that Hill is a loss considering he produced almost 1500 Receiving yards in 2018, but if Mahomes had gone down to a serious injury I think the impact would be much greater and one that could have seen most draw a line through them as a Super Bowl contender.

Patrick Mahomes is that important to the Chiefs and he showed he can still move the chains and help the team produce big points in the blow out win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Sammy Watkins might finally be ready to show that he can be a top Wide Receiver if he can stay healthy, while Travis Kelce will be difficult to slow.

It is very difficult to know how the Oakland Raiders are going to slow the Kansas City Offense even though they are coming in off an emotional victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Raiders have had a tough off-season mainly down to the drama caused by Antonio Brown, but they have drawn a line under that and the team look like they are together and playing for one another.

While they did limit the Denver Broncos to 16 points, the Oakland Raiders were not involved in a dominant Defensive effort in the win. The Kansas City Chiefs should be able to establish LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams against the Raiders who gave up 4.3 yards per carry in Week 1 and who will be more aware of trying to slow down Patrick Mahomes and his attack through the air.

With the Chiefs moving the ball on the ground, it should open things up for Mahomes at some point and both Running Backs are decent Receivers coming out of the backfield too. Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins will provide Mahomes with the Receivers he needs to make the big plays he enjoys and I think Kansas City are going to get into a routine Offensively as they did last week, especially more so considering Gareon Conley is going to be missing in the Secondary for the Raiders.

The best bet for Jon Gruden and his Raiders team to have a chance of winning this game has to be by putting some long drives together and keeping the Chiefs Offense on the sidelines. Losing Antonio Brown the player is a blow, but the person was a distraction and Oakland did look like they were playing hard for one another last week as Derek Carr helped lead them to the win over the Denver Broncos.

Rookie Josh Jacobs had a big day running the ball and he might have a little more room to operate in this one, while Carr will look for Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams to pick up from where they left off on Monday Night. We saw last season that it is possible to make plays against the Kansas City Secondary and that was the case again in Week 1 so I do think Oakland will have some success, but the pressure of matching the Offensive output that Mahomes provides for the Kansas City Chiefs could eventually force Oakland to crack.

The Chiefs are 11-5 against the spread in the last sixteen visits to the Oakland Raiders and the favourite is 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen overall. Oakland also put in a lot of emotional effort into the win on Monday Night Football and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Sunday games following an appearance on the nationally televised last game of the week.

Oakland are 0-11 against the spread when winning both straight up and against the spread in their previous game and facing a Divisional rival who have won a non-Divisional game. The Raiders are 1-8 against the spread when winning as the underdog and facing a Divisional opponent who have won by at least ten points in their last game.

At the same time the Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread off a straight up win and facing a Divisional rival who are off an underdog win. The only shame is that the public seem to be fully behind the Kansas City Chiefs at the moment and the sharps are with the Oakland Raiders, a position I don't like opposing too many times.

However the trends favour the Chiefs and I think they can find too much scoring to move clear of the Oakland Raiders in a big AFC West game. I expect Patrick Mahomes will lead to at last one more scoring drive than Derek Carr, but I will look for the Chiefs to continue finding the End Zone instead of settling for Field Goals too.


Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos Pick: One of the teams that were considered a real favourite to win the NFC Championship and represent the Conference in the Super Bowl were beaten in the first game of the 2019 NFL season. The Chicago Bears will be looking for much better when they head into Week 2, although they are going up against a Denver Broncos team who have also dropped their opening game of the season in the last game played in Week 1.

In usual circumstances a non-Conference game would not have the same edge as other games, but neither team will want to head into Week 3 at 0-2 which is a tough position for teams to make the PlayOffs down the years. But the added intrigue to this game is that Vic Fangio has taken over as the Denver Head Coach in 2019 having been the Chicago Defensive Co-Ordinator in 2018 when helping the Bears become one of the best Defenses in the NFL.

From the minute this game was scheduled the feeling was the Denver Broncos should be a narrow favourite considering the inside knowledge that Fangio would have about what has been a limited Chicago Offense. After seeing Mitchell Trubisky struggle in Week 1 you might have expected Denver to be a slightly bigger favourite, but the Broncos were pretty awful themselves on Monday Night Football.

Even with that in mind I think the Broncos being the underdog of almost a Field Goal amount of points does not feel right and I like Denver to find a way to keep this one competitive. Vic Fangio will have spent the last few days preparing his team to deal with the nuances of the Chicago Offense but the relatively one-dimensional performance of the Bears in Week 1 should make it a little easier for the Head Coach.

The Denver Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen from the Running Back positions and make sure that Trubisky is going to have to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back can move the chains with his legs too, but Chicago struggled to run the ball as a team against the Green Bay Packers and now have to try and find a way to establish the run against this Denver Defensive Line that just held Oakland to 3.5 yards per carry.

It is the strength of this Denver team even if they underperformed in Week 1 and I expect the whole Defensive unit to step up in the first game at Mile High on Sunday. If they can keep Chicago in third and long spots, the Denver Broncos can turn their pass rushers loose and get after Trubisky whose Offensive Line allowed 5 Sacks in the defeat to the Packers last week.

I expect Mitchell Trubisky will struggle, but Joe Flacco is another who could have a difficult day after a poor debut for the Denver Broncos on Monday Night. Part of the problem for Flacco is that the Offensive Line is one that looks pretty weak having needed to be rebuilt this off-season and they struggled to protect the Quarter Back and now have Khalil Mack and the Bears coming to town fresh off of Sacking Aaron Rodgers 6 times.

Flacco, like Trubisky, is going to need to have the run established to just open things up Offensively and also keep him in third and manageable spots. However the Chicago Defensive Line remains strong and the feeling is that we are going to see a low-scoring game where both Defensive units are coming out on top more often than not.

Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders could make some big plays for Denver against a Defensive unit that have lost some key players in the Secondary. Noah Fant will also need to be used more than he was in Week 1, but I can see why Denver are the slight underdogs in a game that might not feature a lot of scoring.

I go back to Vic Fangio and his insider knowledge being the key difference between the teams. While he will know the tendencies of Mitchell Trubisky and the way the Offense wants to get going, his knowledge of the Chicago Defense will also be very important in helping Joe Flacco and the Denver Offense put a successful game plan together.

The public don't believe that with Chicago getting the majority of bets being placed on them, but I think it is an overlooked factor that could provide the difference on the day.

Chicago are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games before playing on Monday Night Football, while Denver are 10-0 against the spread as a home underdog playing a non-Divisional opponent following a Division game.

The Bears have been good off a loss which has to be respected and they have had a lot more time to prepare than the Denver Broncos. However I will back the home underdog with the insight from their Head Coach proving to be critical on the day.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 8 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 6 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)