College Football Week 4 Picks 2021 (September 25th)

My Picks for Week 4 of the College Football season.

I will update the weekly totals in the Week 5 thread which should be out next Friday.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: After the Covid-19 pandemic forced the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) to join the ACC for a single season, they are back playing as an Independent in 2021. The big news out of the SEC that the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners will be joining their Conference in the years ahead means there may be more pressure for the Fighting Irish to join one of their own and give themselves the best opportunity to earn College Football PlayOff spots going forward.

It may not matter so much if the PlayOff is expanded like many believe it will be, but the pressure is on the Fighting Irish to negotiate what is usually a very difficult schedule to earn their place in the post-season. Without a Championship Game, the schedule strength ends up being dictated by how well their opponents do, while one defeat is very difficult to overcome.

So far, so good for Notre Dame this season with three wins and the most impressive of those came last week against the Purdue Boilermakers. That has to be encouraging for the Fighting Irish, although they are going to be playing a Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) team coming in off a Bye and with plenty of preparation for this game likely to have taken place.

Wisconsin have dropped a game to the Penn State Nittany Lions already this season, but they will know they can redeem themselves by winning the Big Ten West Division and ultimately the Conference Championship in December. Losing another game before then will likely end their PlayOff hopes in all likelihood though and that puts pressure on the Badgers in this neutral field meeting.

Soldier Field is not that far away from either campus though and that should mean an intense atmosphere in which the players can perform.

One more than most will be looking for a big day- Jack Coan is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quarter Back and he transferred across from the Wisconsin Badgers so there should be plenty of motivation in his mind to produce for his new team. There wasn't an acrimonious departure from Wisconsin to pump him up all the more, but Jack Coan will want to show his friends and former team-mates what he can do.

He has played well for the Fighting Irish and has thrown 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions, but Jack Coan will be keen to have more support from the run game. That looks a big ask this week against the Wisconsin Defensive Line which has been pretty stout in the first two games played, but Coan should have the knowledge to make some plays through the air and give the Fighting Irish the opportunity to secure the upset.

It has been a more difficult start to the season for Graham Mertz who has taken over from Coan as the Wisconsin starting Quarter Back. His numbers have not really impressed and this is as good a Defensive unit as he would have faced, but Graham Mertz may be able to lean on his running game to at least put the Badgers in a position to try and move above 0.500 for the season.

This battle in the trenches will be a big determining factor as to how the game will go and I do think the Fighting Irish will be looking to pick up from where they left off against the Purdue Boilermakers. That was the best all around performance of the season from Notre Dame and I do think this is a team that will feel they can earn a PlayOff spot and that means winning in Wisconsin.

If the Fighting Irish can at least restrict the Badgers on the ground, their powerful pass rush may make the difference and Notre Dame certainly feel like they are being underestimated here.

The Badgers are a team that have played really well coming out of a Bye Week and I do think that makes them dangerous. However, they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when set as the favourite and they are 1-6 against the spread when favoured on a neutral field.

Notre Dame are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games on a neutral field, while they have covered the last three times they have been set as the underdog. I think there are enough points for the Fighting Irish to keep this one close in what should be a Defensive battle and Jack Coan may be the player that makes the difference for them in a potential upset.

Clemson Tigers @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: In recent years the Clemson Tigers (2-1) have not only dominated this Conference, but they have been a regular in the College Football PlayOff and also a team that has to be considered amongst the favourites when it comes to potential National Champions. Trevor Lawrence has moved on to the NFL before this season began and Clemson are having plenty of teething problems blooding in DJ Uiagalelei who had limited time playing behind Lawrence at Quarter Back.

It has seen the Tigers lose to the Georgia Bulldogs despite only allowing 10 points, while they only managed 14 points in their win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. There is pressure on the Quarter Back to pick up his level and even Head Coach Dabo Swinney has been seen getting in DJ Uiagalelei's ear after a mistake.

They are visiting the NC State Wolfpack (2-1) this week who were expected to be the closest rivals to Clemson in this Division, but who have lost their toughest game of the season at the Mississippi State Bulldogs. However, it says all you need to know about the Clemson struggles that they are only favoured by 10 points on the road compared to the 35 point handicap spread when these teams last met two years ago.

This is still a major test for the Wolfpack who will be favourites to win the Division if they can upset the odds here, but they are facing a Tigers Defensive unit which has been performing like a National Championship contender when the Offensive unit has been struggling. No matter how long they have been spending on the field, Clemson have not given up more than 10 points in any games played this season and that kind of level will mean DJ Uiagalelei has every opportunity of getting things right at Quarter Back and put wins on the board.

Devin Leary and Zonovan Knight have both played well for NC State, but the Quarter Back and Running Back will understand the size of the task in front of them. As well as the Wolfpack Offensive Line has played in setting up Knight for big gains on the ground, they have yet to face a Defensive Line like the one Clemson will be bringing to the field and so the pressure may be on Quarter Back Devin Leary to make the plays to move the scoreboard.

He has not played badly this season with 6 Touchdown passes against 2 Interceptions, but, if the rushing Offense is clamped upon, I do think Leary is going to have issues moving the ball with consistency against the Tigers.

With that in mind you have to believe Clemson can continue their dominance of this series by winning here, but whether they cover the spread is another matter. You can't be backing Clemson with any ease and the NC State Defensive unit has played really well in the early part of the season and they are an experienced team on this side of the ball.

Like Clemson, the Wolfpack start with their powerful Defensive Line and use them to clamp down on the run and force Offenses to become a little one-dimensional. The Tigers Offensive Line is one that is learning on the job and they have only helped the team rush for 4 yards per carry so the feeling is the experience of the NC State Defensive Line can win in the trenches on this side of the ball.

It will mean all of the pressure is on DJ Uiagalelei to make the right throws to open things up on the ground for the Tigers and it is hard to lay this many points with the struggling Quarter Back. The issue that the Wolfpack may have to address is the limited pass rush they have generated though as giving any Quarter Back time to make his reads is not going to end well, but the Secondary have been good so far against largely limited opponents.

Last year felt like a tough one for Clemson who have lost plenty of skill players on the Offensive side of the ball and I still think there is much learning for them to do. It may all come together very quickly, but this feels like a lot of points for the Tigers to lay on the road against an opponent who will have been mentally looking ahead to this game for a couple of weeks.

Clemson have been a very good road favourite to back, but that has been with Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back and that is not the case this week. They are facing a NC State Wolfpack team who are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight at home and who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.

As long as Devin Leary can avoid mistakes, he should be able to keep the Wolfpack competitive in this big ACC Divisional game.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 7 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 15 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Purdue Boilermakers - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers - 27.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 16 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

College Football Week 2 Picks 2021 (September 10-11)

The second week of the College Football season begins on Friday evening and the majority of the games will be played through Saturday.

You have to love the fact that the non-Conference games are back on the schedules as teams build towards their Divisional schedule, while we have some big games between schools from different Conferences that could have a big impact on the College Football PlayOff shake up later this year.

Teams can't earn their spot in the post-season in Week 2, but you can put yourself in a tough spot with a loss and that makes every game in the regular season that much more important.

It should be another fun week, but hopefully one a little stronger than Week 1 when three late games ended up pushing me into the red. More consistency with the Picks will be needed as the season moves on, but it is good to be back.

Oregon Ducks @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Covid-19 has played havoc with a lot of lives over the last eighteen months and it had a major impact on the 2020 College Football season. We are not out of the woods just yet, but the 2021 season is expected to be a lot more 'normal' for teams and there are some big, big non-Conference games on the schedule for some of the teams chasing spots in the College Football PlayOff come the end of the regular season.

Last season the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks were supposed to meet in Eugene in the first of a home and home Series, but that game was forced to be postponed as Conferences decided to make sure that their own Championships took precedent. They will play in Columbus this weekend and the favourites to win the Big Ten and Pac-12 Championships will be looking at this one as a big opportunity to set a marker for the entire season.

Winning this game is important for both the Buckeyes and Ducks and will give them a step up on some of their rivals when the College Football PlayOff Committee put their final four on the board. Both are coming off wins in Week 1, although the Ohio State Buckeyes were more impressive when winning on the road at the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

The Oregon Ducks were also winners, but their victory over Fresno State was very competitive and they did not get close to covering the spread as the favourite. Neither team will be focused on anything but this huge Week 2 match up and I do think home advantage and having a game under their belt will suit the Ohio State Buckeyes and help them produce a big win.

The Buckeyes have to be encouraged by the way CJ Stroud grew into his first start at Quarter Back for the team in the win over the Golden Gophers. He was in a tough spot taking over from Justin Fields, who has been Drafted by the Chicago Bears, but CJ Stroud is surrounded by some huge skill players that showed their worth in the victory on the road last week.

You could understand why so many were as high on the Receiving corps at Ohio State as they have been and the Offensive Line is one that will give their Quarter Back time to make plays. That time might be clear to see if Oregon are without Kayvon Thibodeaux who is the top name on the Ducks Defensive Line and if he cannot go, I think CJ Stroud will be able to back up and perhaps even top his Week 1 performance.

Oregon gave up some big plays through the air in their win over the Bulldogs, while it is going to be a big challenge for the Defensive Line in trying to control the line of scrimmage against the Ohio State Offensive Line. If the Buckeyes can open the same kind of holes as they did against Minnesota, Ohio State will have the Offensive balance that should see them push the ball up and down the field and give them the edge.

However, covering the spread will depend on whether the Ohio State Defensive unit can improve from what was a slightly disappointing performance against the Golden Gophers. Before a major injury to Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota were running the ball pretty effectively, although the lacklustre performance of the Oregon Offensive Line last week is a little concerning.

I expect better from the Ducks in this game and I do think the Offense will have success against an inexperienced Ohio State team that will be growing into this season. You don't want to take too much from one game and I do think Oregon will be better on this side of the ball than they were in the win over Fresno State, but Ohio State will have learnt plenty about themselves from their own Week 1 experiences.

This should be a game in which both Oregon and Ohio State will have Offensive success, but being at home should be enough for the Buckeyes to make the plays to pull away in the second half. The Buckeyes have tended to be too strong for teams coming out of the Pac-12 and they have a 12-2-1 record against the spread in the last fifteen against teams from that Conference.

Oregon have never beaten Ohio State, while the Ducks are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as as road underdog of more than three points. With the Ducks also being 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven against non-Conference opponents, I think the Ohio State Buckeyes can win this one by a slightly wider margin than the one they produced last week and move into a position to be one of the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOffs even after just two weeks of the regular season.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: I was pretty high on the Indiana Hoosiers going into Week 1 of the College Football season, but the Iowa Hawkeyes care little for reputations and expectations. They blew out the Hoosiers at home and even with a single game on the board, you may consider Iowa as the favourites to be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game as the leading team in the Big Ten West Division.

The Hawkeyes will head back into Divisional play next month and they will be keen to do so as an unbeaten team after finishing 6-2 last season. The team have not had a losing record since 2012, but this is the non-Conference game that every single Iowa fan will be wanting to win more than any other.

Winning the Big Ten Championship would give Iowa every chance of making the College Football PlayOff and they are a Ranked team.

For the first time ever, the Hawkeyes will be taking on their in-State rivals Iowa State Cyclones with both teams in the Rankings and the latter have to be massively respected. There are plenty out there who will feel the Cyclones are still trending in a positive direction coming off a 9-3 season and they may be right in amongst the favourites to win the Big 12 Championship and perhaps force their way into the College Football PlayOff.

So there isn't just a rivalry on the line on Saturday, but the winning team will deal their rivals a big blow in looking to secure a spot in the PlayOff and that has only intensified the feeling around the game. Having the 2020 meeting cancelled will have only increased that and I do think this is going to be a close, competitive game with very little between them.

Iowa State did not look so good in their own Week 1 win, but they were not playing FBS opposition and the feeling is that Head Coach Matt Campbell would have made sure a vanilla game plan is the only video the Hawkeyes have of their team in 2021. With 11 starters back on the Offensive side of the ball, Iowa will know what the Iowa State Cyclones are capable of, and they won't want to read too much into the performance in Week 1.

The Cyclones have a very productive Offensive unit and they have some of the top Receiving corps and Offensive Line in the nation. Add in Brock Purdy at Quarter Back and you know how good this Iowa State team can be, but the Hawkeyes have a tremendous Defensive unit and the belief is that they can keep their hosts in check for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

The Hawkeyes have an Offensive Line that is capable of giving Spencer Petras plenty of time at Quarter Back and with 7 starters back, Iowa should be as close to the levels they showed last season on this side of the ball. Like their rivals, Iowa State have a tremendous looking Defensive unit and they also have 9 starters back on this unit which gave up just 21.4 points on average in 2020.

It feels like this game has all of the makings of a close, low-scoring one and that makes the points with the underdog look appealing. I love the look of the Iowa State Cyclones, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are no slouches and they have won the last five in this rivalry.

I have to respect the fact that Iowa State have been a very strong home favourite to back when they are being asked to lay fewer than seven points, and they have covered in the last nine in that spot. The Hawkeyes have a poor 1-7 record against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog too, but my overriding feeling is that this is going to be a really competitive game between rivals and a Field Goal may be enough to separate them at the end of the contest.

Having more than three points for the underdog looks like too many points and I will look for the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit to make enough plays to contain the powerful looking Iowa State Cyclones. That should give the underdog the chance to keep this one close and I will take the points on offer here.

Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: These two schools were former rivals in the now defunct Southwest Conference and in the coming years the Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks will be renewing that rivalry when the former join the SEC along with the Oklahoma Sooners.

This game would have been arranged before the seismic news a few weeks ago that the Longhorns and Sooners were going to be leaving the Big 12 to join the loaded SEC, and it may just increase the importance of the game for all involved. Perhaps that is the reason that Arkansas are about to enjoy their first home sellout since 2017 and the Razorbacks will be hoping a raucous atmosphere can rattle their visitors.

Both Arkansas and Texas have opened the season with good looking wins and that should mean both squads are going to be playing with some confidence. Sam Pittman had guided Arkansas to a 3-7 record in his first season with the team, but 9 starters return on the Offensive unit and 10 on the Defensive unit and that has raised some expectations even if they are playing in a tremendously tough SEC West.

Things have changed in Austin too with the Longhorns deciding that Tom Herman's 32-18 record over four seasons with Texas was not good enough. A big time appointment was made with Steve Sarkisian taking over as Head Coach following a couple of solid years as Offensive Co-Ordinator with the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the new Head Coach has been left with some big talents on both sides of the ball.

There is an expectation that there will be some learning to cover for the Texas Longhorns, especially as they have a new Quarter Back, but Hudson Card impressed in Week 1. This is a much sterner test for the young Quarter Back in a tough environment, but he is surrounded by some real talent in the Running Back and Receiving units, while the Offensive Line can replicate the successes they had in 2020.

It makes it a tough challenge for the Razorbacks Defensive unit, but there is some real expectation that this could be one of the better Defenses we have seen in Fayetteville for a long time. Slowing down the Texas Longhorns will be difficult, especially when you factor in the knowledge Steve Sarkisian has of the SEC in general, and that will put some pressure on the home team to try and keep up.

There is every chance that Arkansas can do that with the Texas Longhorns having some issues to deal with in their Secondary. They may have a number of returning starters, but the Longhorns had a tough time Defensively in 2020 and the Razorbacks are expected to be much better Offensively now that Sam Pittman has had more time to work with his team compared with his first season in the job.

Like Texas, Arkansas have a young Quarter Back, but KJ Jefferson struggled in the opener and he will have to start much better in this one if he is going to keep hold of his job. The Defensive unit picked up the slack for the Quarter Back struggles, but Arkansas should have some success on the ground which can at least offer Jefferson a little more time to attack the weakness of the Texas Defense.

It is not easy to be confident in the Arkansas Offensive unit after a rough opening week, but I do think this is a tough place for a young visiting Quarter Back to play and that is something Texas are going to be facing up to. It may contribute to this game being closer than some may think and a couple of mistakes from Hudson Card could see the Razorbacks move into a position to cover.

Even with little time working with his players last season, Sam Pittman did lead Arkansas to a 3-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog. With more time to work with those players, I think the Razorbacks will be competitive when being underestimated, although Texas are the better team.

Arkansas are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve as the underdog and even a strong record as a road favourite for the Texas Longhorns would have been with a much more experienced Quarter Back. The Longhorns may do enough to win in Fayetteville, but the Razorbacks are good enough to keep this within the handicap mark as the home crowd helps the players produce a big performance.

Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The SEC West may be the stronger of the two Divisions in this Conference, but in recent seasons the SEC East has been getting closer and closer to the likes of Alabama and LSU. In 2021 it looks like the East is going to bring the heat, although the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers will have to find something special to challenge Georgia and Florida for a place in the SEC Championship Game.

Both teams only won five games in the shortened 2020 season, but the Kentucky Wildcats are returning 12 starters this time around and Missouri are bringing back 14. The expectation is that both teams will be improved this season and especially Kentucky who look to have a stronger Offensive unit and one that could be tough to stop both on the ground and through the air.

You don't want to get carried away by one game, but Kentucky looked much better on this side of the ball in their blow out win against an overmatched opponent. This will be a far greater test for new Quarter Back Will Levis, but he will also be enthused by the spaces the Tigers had in the Secondary as they get to grips with a new Defensive Co-Ordinator and his schemes as Steve Wilks has spent recent seasons putting things in place in the NFL.

I have to believe that Missouri will be stronger defending the pass than they showed last week and it may also have been a case of not wanting to put too many schemes on film against an opponent they would have expected to beat. At the end of the day the Tigers produced the win, but Will Levis may be able to have a strong game for the Wildcats and especially if the Kentucky Offensive Line can open up the running lanes against the strong Missouri Defensive Line.

It was another aspect in which the Tigers struggled last week and I do have to like the chances of Kentucky being able to move the ball with some confidence in this one.

The key for Kentucky is the Defensive side of the ball and they certainly look like having the players that can contain what may be a transitional Missouri Offense. The Tigers are going to be more experienced having had a full summer working with Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz who will be calling his own plays, and there were certainly some signs of that in the win over Central Michigan in Week 1.

Missouri lost a top Running Back to the NFL in the last Draft, but the Offensive Line looks like it could pave the way for some solid numbers on the ground. Tylar Badie took advantage of the holes the Offensive Line opened up for them, but this week the Tigers will be facing a Kentucky Defensive Line had a big performance last time out and have a number of players touted for big things amongst their performers.

Some key players have moved on to the NFL and it will be interesting to see which of these teams can win at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball which may end up being the determining factor between a win and a loss.

Revenge will be on the minds of the Wildcats having lost as a 3.5 road favourite at Missouri last year, although that result means the underdog has covered in five straight games when these two teams have played one another.

However, Kentucky tend to play much better at home and they are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen here, while they are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite. At the same time Missouri have struggled as a road underdog and the Tigers are just 7-20 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games overall.

With a new look Offense looking like it could push the Kentucky Wildcats back into a winning record after the disappointment of 2020, I think Mark Stoops will guide his team to a successful revenge mission. The spread will be competitive with a backdoor cover a possibility, but I will back the Kentucky Wildcats to do enough to win and cover here.

Washington Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: I have said many times that you can't put too much stock into one result, but the Washington Huskies were embarrassingly beaten by Montana at home last week. It is not only the loss, but the Huskies managed just 7 points despite entering the season with some huge expectations on their shoulders.

Some have tipped them up as the team to beat in the Pac-12 North, but Washington were guilty of overlooking their opponent and perhaps focusing on this game instead. That alone is not a good enough excuse, but Washington were not helped with three of their Receivers being absent through injury and with Ja'Lynn Polk banged up during the game.

Rome Odunze and Terrell Bynum cannot come back quick enough with their statuses set as day to day, while Polk is almost certainly ruled out for this game. Without some of the top names on this unit, Dylan Morris had an awful game at Quarter Back with three Interceptions thrown to propel the loss to Montana.

Even then Dylan Morris may feel he can have a bounce back performance against the Michigan Wolverines who may have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball, but who had an awful 2020 with some very disappointing numbers.

It is all well and good saying the Wolverines looked good in Week 1, but they are facing a much better opponent this time around and some of their younger players will have to show what they have learned. I do think the Washington Huskies have been prepping for this game all summer so Dylan Morris should have a better outing, especially if one or two of the Receivers mentioned above return.

If they cannot return, Washington will have to rely on their Defensive unit to make up for the Offensive woes and this is a team with 8 returning starters from 2020. The Secondary looks strong, while they are expecting to be much improved when it comes to stopping the run, although both aspects will be challenged by this Michigan team.

The Wolverines are under pressure to show their improvement after a poor 2020, but they have 10 returning starters and an experienced Quarter Back in Alan Bowman, who transferred from Texas Tech. It was actually Cade McNamara who got the nod in Week 1 and he has had some experience guiding the Michigan Offense from 2020, while the start to the season was steady if unspectacular this time around.

However, it was not all good news out of Week 1 as Ronnie Bell has been lost to a season ending injury and there is no doubting the impact this will have on the Michigan passing game. Facing the Huskies Secondary will be much more challenging for Cade McNamara this week and I do think the underdog may show more bite as they look to remind other teams they are far better than their opening performance.

Washington's Defensive unit can keep them in this game even though it is tough to oppose Michigan as the home favourite under Jim Harbaugh. The Big House will be rocking for this game which will make it difficult for the Huskies, but the Wolverines Offensive unit are not easy to trust right now in their development and especially not against a Defensive unit like this one.

As bad as Washington were last week, the focus would have been on this game and I expect key Receivers to be available which can only boost Dylan Morris against what may be an inconsistent Michigan Defensive unit.

The Huskies are a team that can bounce back from losses, while Michigan are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games. They are also 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven games against teams from the Pac-12 and I think there is every chance that Washington can get the better of the public who have been pounding Michigan at the window.

With a full Touchdown start, I am looking for a Huskies performance that is much more in line with what would be expected of a team that may have been considered the top team in the Pac-12 North before a ball had been thrown.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arkansas Razorbacks + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington Huskies + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 26 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

College Football Week 10 Picks 2019 (October 31-November 2)

I have to say I have been very frustrated with the way my College Football Picks have gone in the last few weeks with some big leads being blown and backdoor covers really going against me.

Last week was more of the same after Navy became the latest to throw away a 24 point lead and then win by a Field Goal in a game I had been looking for them to win by at least four points.

Other Picks were disappointing in what has become four losing weeks in a row and I have to find a way to be better over the remaining month of the regular season.


Next week we are going to get the first of the College Football PlayOff Rankings and it is going to be one that highlights the issues Conferences like the Big 12 and Pac-12 are going to have to get a team invited into the final four.

While I don't anticipate their first four teams selected to be the same as how it will break down by the end of the season, I do think it is going to give us a good indication of what they are thinking.

For me if the College Football PlayOff list had been released this week I would have Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and LSU as my top four teams. There are other unbeaten teams in the Power 5 Conferences who might argue against that, while in Week 11 we are going to have some separation of the SEC teams when the Crimson Tide play the Tigers, but I would be stunned in three of those I have picked do not end up making the PlayOffs.

In saying that we have seen enough upsets to know nothing can be taken for granted and teams like the Baylor Bears and Penn State Nittany Lions will have a real chance to push into those spots. Both are unbeaten and will know running the table gives them every chance of being selected in the top four spots, although the schedules make it difficult to believe they can do that.

Other one loss teams will also still be playing with belief that their outlook could change in the weeks ahead, but the four teams I have mentioned control their own destiny and I think they would be deserving of making the PlayOffs... At least at this moment anyway.


2019 might be proving to be a difficult season for the College Football Picks, but there is time to get things turned back around. The regular season and Championship Games are going to be played over the next five weeks and then we will head into Bowl Season.

I do want to begin the turnaround this week though and my selections begin on Thursday night.

I have also updated the Season Totals and will add any Picks to this thread for Week 10 of the 2019 season.


West Virginia Mountaineers @ Baylor Bears Pick: After losing three straight times to the West Virginia Mountaineers, revenge should be in the air on Thursday evening when the Baylor Bears host this Big 12 Conference game. It is no surprise that Baylor, who are the only unbeaten team in the Big 12, are big favourites to put a win on the board in Week 10 and especially as they are facing a Mountaineers team who are 3-4 for the season and coming off three straight Conference losses.

At this moment of the season, Matt Rhule's Baylor team control their own destiny and the feeling is if they can win their remaining games they are very likely to be invited into the College Football PlayOffs. It will be dangerous for Baylor to look too far ahead considering they have to play both Oklahoma and Texas before a Big 12 Championship Game, but the Bears will be encouraged as they are almost certainly going to make another improvement under a Head Coach whose reputation is increasing by the day.

Both teams should be well prepared for this game coming off a Bye Week and it is a big one for Neal Brown and his Mountaineers team too. They need three more wins to become Bowl eligible and they should be looking at this as a winnable contest even though West Virginia have suffered some blow out defeats already this season.

It was always looking like it could be a difficult year for West Virginia considering long-time Head Coach Dana Holgerson had moved on and starting Quarter Back Will Grier also completed his time here. Austin Kendall hasn't played badly in that position for the Mountaineers, but there has been a lot of pressure on him with West Virginia struggling to run the ball.

West Virginia have been averaging just 2.9 yards per carry for the season, but that has dropped to 2.3 yards per carry in their three game losing run to Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma. They are unlikely to have a lot of success against this Baylor Defensive Line and that leaves Kendall having to throw from third and long spots.

It won't be an easy game for Kendall because Baylor have not only been strong at controlling the run, but they have a fierce pass rush which are likely going to put him under immense pressure. That has led to Quarter Backs making mistakes when throwing into this Secondary, and Kendall has not been too far away from pitching an Interception or two.

Extra possessions are key for Baylor if they are going to cover this big number, but I do like their chances of scoring enough points to be in a position to do so. Charlie Brewer may receive a lot of the plaudits for the way the Bears have played, but he has been backed up by the Offensive Line which has paved the way for big plays on the ground and I fully expect Baylor to be able to manage their drives with plenty of balance between throwing and rushing the ball.

Injuries have been hurting West Virginia too and Hakeem Bailey is suspended for the first half of this one which should leave holes for Brewer to exploit through the air. The Quarter Back has helped Baylor average over 300 passing yards per game and I do think he should find the time to make his plays with the team likely to be in third and manageable spots throughout the sixty minutes played.

The home team has a 5-1 record against the spread in the last six between these teams while West Virginia are 1-9 against the spread as road underdogs of more than 4 points when facing an opponent who will want revenge. There is no doubt this is a very big number, but the Mountaineers have lost by margins of 31, 9, 24 and 38 this season and Baylor can win this one by around 20 points.


Navy Midshipmen @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: Last week I backed the Navy Midshipmen to win and cover in a big Conference game against the Tulane Green Wave and was disappointed to see them blow a 24 point lead and only just come away with a win. They won't care about whether they covered or not as Navy improved to 6-1 to become Bowl eligible just a season after finishing 3-10 while they remain in contention in the American Athletic West Division.

The game with the SMU Mustangs might be the key one in determining which way this Division goes, but Navy will also be aware that it will mean nothing if they are upset by the Connecticut Huskies in Week 10. The Huskies will be heading into the game with a little bit of confidence having knocked off an FBS opponent for the first time in twenty-two tries in Week 9 and they also played the Houston Cougars very close in Week 8.

However it has been a long time since the Huskies were able to win a Conference game and that is going to be a big challenge for them against what looks to be one of the stronger teams in the American Athletic.

Kevin Mensah is going to be key for Connecticut if they are going to make this a close contest and he comes off a very big outing when securing over 160 yards on the ground and also earning five Touchdowns. He has been part of a Running Back committee that have gotten something going in their last three games which has seen the Huskies being more competitive, but establishing the run against the Navy Defensive Line has been far from straight-forward.

If they can run the ball the Huskies will be in a very good position to move the ball and keep drives from stalling. Anything else will mean having to protect the Quarter Back from a powerful Navy pass rush which has found a way to get into the backfield and force mistakes from opponents all season. It has been a fluid situation for Connecticut as far as the Quarter Back has gone, but much of the foundation for their success will be down to winning the fight in the trenches with the Navy Defensive Line.

Much of the same can be said for when Navy have the ball, but it is much more difficult to believe that the Huskies can slow down the run as much as the Midshipmen should be able to do. In recent games the Midshipmen have been even better and I do think it is going to be difficult to stop them on the ground despite Connecticut and everyone else knowing what Navy want to do.

This is a huge number in all honesty, but the favourite has covered in the last four in the series between these teams. The game will be shortened with both teams looking to run the ball, but I think the Navy Defensive unit can make the bigger plays and the more consistent rushing Offense can lead the Midshipmen to a big win.


TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: Two teams off unexpected wins in Week 9 will be looking to back that up when they face one another in Stillwater on Saturday. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are one game away from being Bowl eligible yet again under Mike Gundy, but they are only 2-3 in the Big 12 and that is thanks to an upset win on the road at the Iowa State Cyclones.

They will be hosting the TCU Horned Frogs who are now at 4-3 thanks to a win over the Texas Longhorns. They do look in a stronger position than the Cowboys as far as competing for a Championship is concerned in the Big 12, but at 2-2 the Horned Frogs have very little room for error.

The Horned Frogs will feel they do have control of their own destiny with games against the Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears to come before they end the regulation season too. However TCU will be well aware that they need to make sure they keep their eye on the ball on Saturday and not allow themselves to look too far ahead.

It should not be the case with the Horned Frogs a slight underdog on the day, and Max Duggan is likely going to be needed to have another big game for the team if they are going to upset the odds here. Duggan is proving to be a dual-threat Quarter Back which teams have struggled to deal with and it might be more of the same for the Cowboys despite their big performance at the Cyclones last week.

Duggan should be able to help establish the run against a Cowboys Defensive Line which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games. The TCU Offensive Line has felt very comfortable when it comes to trying to pave the way for their Quarter Back or Runnings Backs given a chance to run the ball and I do think they will be able to do that in this game.

It will be good news for Duggan who knows his Offensive Line has not been as comfortable when it comes to pass protection, but being in third and manageable should mean the Quarter Back is able to get the ball out of his hands quick enough. That should ease the Cowboys pass rush, while Duggan is also in a position where he is going to be throwing into a Secondary which has given up some big yards on the season and the feeling is that TCU will score a fair few points in this one.

The same can be said of Oklahoma State who have a young, inexperienced Quarter Back Spencer Sanders who is showing that he is developing the more snaps he is given. Chuba Hubbard continues to churn out plenty of yards on the ground which is also hugely beneficial for Sanders and I do think the top rusher in College Football can have a big game against this Horned Frogs Defensive Line too.

Like their opponents, Oklahoma State should be able to sustain drives with Sanders able to exploit holes in the Secondary from third and manageable spots.

The key to the game might be which of the teams is going to win the turnover battle as both will believe they can move the ball throughout much of the game. The slight edge in that is with the Horned Frogs who have looked after the ball and created more takeaways than Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys had a big week last time out and playing at home might just balance that out.

Oklahoma State are 5-1 against the spread in their last six at home, while the home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this series. There really isn't much between these teams, but the home advantage could be the difference maker on the day and I will back the Cowboys to cover.


Pittsburgh Panthers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: One of the main reasons the Clemson Tigers have been dropping in the College Football Rankings is that they are playing in the ACC which is one of the weaker Power 5 Conferences. It has impacted the strength of the schedule that Clemson are playing and that whole issue is underlined by the ACC Coastal Division which is going to provide one of the teams in the Championship Game.

Every team in this Division has lost at least two Conference games already and there is little consistency from the teams within it. Two of those are facing off in Week 10 when the Pittsburgh Panthers visit the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as the winner will be looking to stay alive in the Division while the losing team will be wondering what might have been.

In all honesty the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets always knew 2019 was going to be something of a transitional season for them as they moved from the triple option Offense into a pro style one. The win over the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago snapped a four game losing run for the Yellow Jackets, although they still need four more wins to become Bowl eligible which will mean running the table over the next month while also upsetting at least three of the four teams they will face.

First up is the Panthers who are 5-3 overall and just half a game behind the Virginia Cavaliers and North Carolina Tar Heels in the Division. They can't afford to slip up here before heading into the Bye Week especially with games with the Tar Heels and Virginia Tech Hokies coming up and the Panthers are also trying to bounce back from a disappointing home defeat to the Miami Hurricanes in a game they had statistically dominated.

Kenny Pickett is an experienced Quarter Back, but he had a terrible game against the Hurricanes and it was the main reason the Panthers were on the wrong side of the scoreline. He is going to need some support from a rushing attack which has been struggling in recent games and leaving Pickett to make plays from third and long which has not been ideal behind this Offensive Line that has struggled both in run blocking and pass protection.

If Pickett is given some time, he should be able to make some plays through the air against the Yellow Jackets Secondary. Interceptions have been something of an issue for Pickett, but I do think he will be asked to manage this game and allow the Panthers strong Defensive unit to win the field position battle on the day.

Jordan Mason was the key player for the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago and the team are going to need the Running Back to find a way to establish the ground game in this one too. This might not be the Georgia Tech we are used to seeing, but the Offensive Line is still very happy when it comes to run blocking and they have been successful on the ground. However being able to do that against the Pittsburgh Defensive Line is a whole different challenge with the Panthers allowing just 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games and restricting teams to 2.6 yards per carry for the season.

That is going to be an issue for young Quarter Back James Graham who has managed the game but not been as efficient throwing the ball as the team would like. He will be under intense pressure from the pass rush that Pittsburgh produce whenever Graham is dropping back from third and long spots and that pressure has also helped the Panthers restrict teams to under 200 passing yards per game in their recent games.

I am looking for that Defensive unit to make some big plays for the Pittsburgh Panthers and that should see them pull away for the win in this one. The underdog has been strong in the recent games in this series, but I love the way Pittsburgh have responded to defeats with their 38-18-1 record against the spread in that situation.

The Panthers have been better on the road than at home and I will back them to win and cover in this Week 10 game and get back on track as far as it goes in challenging for the Division title.


Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: It has now been twelve seasons since the Indiana Hoosiers last had a winning season, but Head Coach Tom Allen has felt his team have been very close having finished with 5-7 records in each of the first two seasons under his watch. An upset win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 9 has moved the Hoosiers to 6-2 and they will have their first winning season since 2007 if they can win one of their remaining four regular season games.

The Hoosiers are only 3-2 in the Conference and they are playing in the Big Ten East which is one of the more loaded Divisions in College Football. That does mean Indiana are unlikely to be playing in the Championship Game barring a lot of unexpected things going their way and this is arguably their best chance of getting to seven wins in the regular season with games against Michigan and Penn State coming out of their Bye Week.

They are hosting the Northwestern Wildcats this season who are 1-6 in 2019 and have already seen their run of four successive winning seasons looking like it will come to an end. It is going to take the Wildcats to sweep their remaining five games in the regular season to get back into a Bowl Game and they would have to win that too if they are going to make if five winning seasons in a row, but it looks a long shot for them and five losses in a row have put them in a very poor spot.

In 2018 Northwestern reached the Big Ten Championship Game so this is some fall from that level as they have struggled Offensively all season. The Wildcats have struggled to run the ball as teams have dared them to throw the ball against them and I don't foresee the Northwestern Offensive Line to have much consistent success on the ground in this one either.

Indiana are likely going to be stout up front and follow the blueprint of asking Aidan Smith and Hunter Johnson to try and beat them from the Quarter Back spot. Northwestern have struggled to protect the Quarter Back when they have stepped back to throw and they are averaging an awful 126 passing yards per game through 2019 which is not going to get things done against this Hoosiers Secondary who have played well.

Interceptions have hurt Smith and Johnson too and it does feel like Northwestern will struggle to score a lot of points as they average just under 11 points per game in 2019.

The Wildcats Defensive unit have played well though and that is the only reason they have been somewhat competitive in a couple of losses. However there have been one or two signs that they are wearing down as they are being asked to play too many minutes with opponents having the edge in time of possession thanks to the Offensive struggles Northwestern continue to have.

Teams are beginning to find it a little easier to establish the run against the Wildcats Defensive Line and Stevie Scott has become more and more comfortable at Running Back for Indiana. The Offensive Line have been strong in run blocking and I think Scott is going to be able to put the team in a position where either Peyton Ramsey or Michael Penix can thrive at Quarter Back.

It was Ramsey who led the Hoosiers to the road upset of Nebraska in Week 9, but Penix remains the starter at Quarter Back as long as he is healthy. That status remains uncertain, but whoever begins in that position will have time to make their plays through the air and can keep the chains moving in this one.

I think that Offensive balance will be the key for Indiana who also have the Defensive unit to at least limit the Northwestern Wildcats as most opponents have this season. The home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series and Indiana have some very positive numbers at home.

It might not be a blow out, but I do think the Hoosiers will make the plays to eventually begin to pull away and they should be good enough to secure their first winning season since 2007 with a strong win on the day.

MY PICKS: Baylor Bears - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Navy Midshipmen - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 9: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 8: 4-4-1, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)


Season 2019: 31-34-1, - 6.02 Units (66 Units Staked, - 9.12% Yield)

College Football Week 8 Picks (October 18-19)

It was a mixed week for the College Football Picks in Week 7 with a couple of late Touchdowns preventing this being a winning one for the selections.

At least it wasn't a really bad week and I am hoping for much better in Week 8 where the selections begin on Friday. I have not had a week where I could have offered full analysis for all of my picks, but all can be seen below.

The season totals have been updated too.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: With the way things shaped up in Week 7 of the College Football season while the Ohio State Buckeyes were on their Bye Week, an unbeaten Champion in the Big Ten would very likely be given the chance to earn one of the four College Football PlayOff berths that will be decided later this year.

There are currently four unbeaten teams in this Conference with two residing in the Big Ten East and two in the Big Ten West. On Friday night the Buckeyes will head to the road to take on the Northwestern Wildcats who are just 1-4 for the season and have dropped all three Conference games played against the Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers and Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Like their opponents, the Wildcats are coming in off a Bye Week and I have to respect Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald who has a very strong record as the underdog in charge of Northwestern. They are also a good home underdog to back, although the Wildcats were blown out by 21 points when facing the Michigan State Spartans here and comparing their performances against the same opponents suggest it is going to be a very long day in the office for the home underdog.

It is going to take an upset or two for the Wildcats to even be in a position to extend their run of Bowl appearances to five years in a row and Northwestern have no more Bye Weeks to reset to come. They have a winning record playing with rest when it comes to the spread, but Fitzgerald will be hoping that the Offensive unit can pick up their play and give their Defense a chance to keep this game competitive.

As Northwestern have moved into Conference play, they have continued to run the ball very poorly and that looks to have little sign of being turned around. It certainly would be a huge surprise if the Wildcats Offensive Line can get on track against the Ohio State Defensive Line which has allowed just 2.4 yards per carry in 2019 and look to be so much more comfortable with the system compared with 2018.

Northwestern will have to continue to try to run the ball as the Quarter Back play has not been good enough at all. Replacing a Quarter Back that was selected in the NFL Draft was not going to be easy, but Hunter Johnson and Aidan Smith have had issues and are in for a challenging time with both expected to take snaps during the course of the game.

With the Defensive Line being as stout as they are against the run, the Buckeyes have been able to generate a ton of pass rush pressure and I think either Johnson or Smith will find it hard to get the time they need to make their throws. I am looking for the Buckeyes to be dominant and control the field with their Defensive unit and the overall pressure to crack the Northwestern unit.

Turnovers will also be key for the Buckeyes when it comes to covering this huge spread and I think they will create those for the extra possessions required. That is important because the Wildcats Defense has actually played well for the majority of the season and it won't be easy for Ohio State to dominate the whole sixty minutes of this game.

The Buckeyes can run the ball very well and in Justin Fields they have a confident Quarter Back, but Northwestern are only allowing 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games which came against the Conference opponents I have mentioned. However I do think none of Michigan State, Wisconsin or Nebraska have the same kind of balance on the Offensive side of the ball and that is going to be very helpful for Ohio State to find their way to scoring enough points to cover a very big spread.

I expect Ohio State to continue to try and pound the ball and they can crack out a couple of big runs, but it will be the play from Fields at Quarter Back that can just open up those running lanes a little more. He should have time to attack a good Secondary, and that time should see the Buckeyes win enough of their duels with their Receivers to keep the ball moving and score the points they will need in this one.

I am not going to worry about the rumours about the length of the grass at Ryan Field and I am going to back the Buckeyes. Friday night games are rarely that appealing to me, but like the Oregon Ducks in Week 7, I do think the Buckeyes can make a big statement with a strong road win that surpasses the margins produced by the three Conference teams who have already played and beaten the Northwestern Wildcats.


Houston Cougars @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: There has been plenty of controversy with the decisions made by the Houston Cougars to 'redshirt' a couple of key players to bring them back in 2020. Since D'Eriq King decided he would be one of those, the starting Quarter Back position has not really been as productive as the Cougars would have wanted and one of the pre-season favourites to win the American Athletic Conference are going to have to dig deep to find the four more wins they need to become Bowl eligible.

Last week the Cougars were beaten by the Cincinnati Bearcats to fall to 0-2 in the Conference and in most situations I would want nothing to do with a road favourite that is clearly building for 2020. However this is not most situations for the Cougars who are visiting the Connecticut Huskies, a team who finished 1-11 last season and who have shown little sign of improvement in 2019.

The Huskies were considered a work in progress as Randy Edsall entered his third year as Head Coach in his second time around with the school. He would have hoped his team were going to be more competitive, but five losses in a row against FBS opponents in 2019 and largely by wide margins have seen the team struggle for confidence.

Connecticut have really struggled to get things going Offensively and I do think that will always give them issues of covering the spread. This week might be a bit different as the Cougars have struggled on the Defensive side of the ball, but you can't be massively confident that the Huskies are going to get things right on the day.

The Offensive Line has struggled to open holes up front which means the Huskies have been forced to play out of third and long spots far too many times. Mike Beaudry should have some opportunities to produce one of his better games at Quarter Back with some signs that he is getting on top of the plays being called, but he has to make sure he avoids big Interceptions.

Those signs have seen the Huskies begin to score more points, but the challenge for the team remains on the Defensive side of the ball. The Huskies have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last four games and each of those losses have come by at least a 22 point margin.

Losing a dual threat Quarter Back has hurt the Cougars, but they have continued to run the ball very well. In the last three games the Huskies Defensive Line has given up 6.8 yards per carry and I would fully expect the Houston Cougars to use Kyle Porter and Patrick Carr to strong effect this week.

Clayton Tune has taken over at Quarter Back, but he has struggled massively since becoming the starter. At the moment Tune is still the player the Cougars will turn to, but I think he will need to show something against a Connecticut Secondary which has had massive issues slowing down the pass considering the balance most Offenses can put together against them.

Connecticut have not only been losing games, but they have been having massive issues in being competitive against the spread. I expect the Houston Cougars to be able to dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball and that should see them pull clear in this one.

You would worry about the fact the Cougars are not exactly focused on 2019, but they should be far too strong for the Huskies even now.


Oregon State Beavers @ California Golden Bears Pick: A 4-0 start to the season is fading in the rearview mirror for the California Golden Bears who have dropped back to back Conference games. Justin Wilcox will be desperate to find two more wins to get the Golden Bears back into a Bowl Game, but they look out of contention in the Pac-12 North as they look to get back to 0.500 in the Conference.

Most were calling for the Golden Bears to be a lot more competitive in 2020 anyway, but the 4-0 start was always going to raise expectations to unrealistic levels. The bottom line is that California have had less yards than their last five opponents and they have been struggling Offensively for much of the season.

Now they face the Oregon State Beavers who had won two of three games before being blown out by the Utah Utes. They are another team who are rebuilding and not expected to be that competitive in 2019, but the signs had been positive before the loss to Utah and Jonathan Smith has to be happy that his team are in a position to surpass the two wins they secured in his first season as Head Coach here.

Artavis Pierce and Jake Luton are going to be huge for the Beavers if they are going to earn the upset on the road, but they have to believe that the California Defensive unit is not going to be up to the level they showed early in the season. As soon as they moved into Conference play, the Golden Bears Defense has been a little more vulnerable and I think the Oregon State Offensive unit can find the balance to at least be productive.

Luton has been strong at Quarter Back and has thrown 14 Touchdowns with just a single Interception for the season. He is throwing into a Secondary which has given up almost 250 passing yards per game in their last three games and I do think the Quarter Back will have a strong outing in this one too.

He will be helped by the fact that the Oregon State Beavers should be able to establish the run against the California Defensive Line which has allowed 4.4 yards per carry in recent games. The Golden Bears are strong on this side of the ball, but a balanced Offensive unit like the Oregon State Beavers should be able to bounce back from their Week 7 performance and get the chains moving with some consistency in the game.

I like the Oregon State Beavers with the start on the spread and quite a lot of that is down to the fact that the Golden Bears Offense has been struggling throughout the season. California will be going with Devon Modster in place of their starting Quarter Back for a second game in a row, but it will be hard for him to really get into a rhythm if the Golden Bears continue to struggle to run the ball.

Christoper Brown Jr has not been able to get going in the last two losses the Golden Bears have suffered, while the team is only producing 3.4 yards per carry for the season. You would think they can have some success against the Oregon State Defensive Line, but I imagine the game plan for the visitors will be to be strong up front and force Modster to beat them through the air.

I do think the backup Quarter Back can have some success in this game, but any time Modster is left in third and long will be difficult to convert. The California Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection in recent games and Interceptions could be a turning point if the Beavers are able to secure extra possessions.

The Golden Bears have been good coming out of their Bye Week, but Oregon State are 9-1 against the spread when playing with revenge against a rested opponent. I think California are the more likely winners on the day, but they struggle to score a lot of points Offensively so the start being given to the visitors looks very appealing.

Oregon State have been scoring enough points in recent weeks to believe they can keep this close on the scoreboard and perhaps even pull the upset. I like the amount of points being given to the Beavers.


Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Losing the Red River Rivalry game against the Oklahoma Sooners would have been a bitter blow for the Texas Longhorns and anyone associated with them. It has dropped Texas to 4-2, but the season is far from over for Tom Herman and his team as they sit at 2-1 in the Big 12 and will believe running the table from here will give them a shot at winning the Championship.

There are some big tests ahead for the Longhorns with road games at TCU, Baylor and Iowa State to come before the regular season comes to an end and it is important they do not overlook the Kansas Jayhawks.

Les Miles surprisingly took over in Lawrence and his team are just one win from matching the number they secured in 2018. They have struggled to back up their first win over a Power 5 opponent though and Kansas have lost three straight Conference games while being blown out by the TCU Horned Frogs and Oklahoma Sooners in back to back games.

It has led to a move at Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Jayhawks and Brent Dearmon will be Coaching at this level for the first time. Les Miles is very high on the ability of Dearmon to do his job and there are some decent pieces on the Offensive side of the ball that could benefit greatly from a new direction that Dearmon is likely able to provide.

The Jayhawks will certainly feel confident going up against a Texas Defensive unit which has not played up to the level that some would have expected of them despite the obvious inexperience they entered the 2019 season with. Kansas are coming into the game off a Bye Week which will help and they should be able to establish the run and put Carter Stanley in a position to keep the chains moving at Quarter Back.

Stanley is capable of moving the ball with his legs, but he is also happy taking shots into a Secondary he faces. That should be more evident in Week 8 and I do think Stanley will have some successes against a Texas Secondary which has allowed almost 300 passing yards per game in recent games.

Carter Stanley has also been looking after the ball which is going to be key as Texas have thrived on creating turnovers. It should mean Kansas can have some Offensive successes in this one as they look to match the stunning upset the 2016 Jayhawks had over the Longhorns.

Texas will have their own strong Quarter Back heading out onto the field in Week 8 as Sam Ehlinger looks to help the team bounce back from the defeat to the Sooners. It was a game in which the Longhorns were dominated, but Ehlinger continues to display strong performances at Quarter Back and he should have some real successes in this one.

One concern is that Ehlinger has not been protected by the Offensive Line as well as he would have liked, but there are holes in the Kansas Secondary which can be exploited. Those will look a lot bigger to the Quarter Back if the Longhorns are able to establish the run like they should be able to do so and it will also just slow the pass rush just a step which will be key to the Texas Longhorns having a strong Offensive showing on the day.

This is a big number when you think that Kansas should have some big Offensive drives, especially as it feels the Jayhawks continue to be written off by the layers more than they should be. However I do think Kansas will struggle to really put a stop to Texas drives and the Longhorns are capable of producing one or two extra possessions which should be key in pulling away in this one.

Texas are 8-3 against the spread following a loss under Tom Herman and I will look for them to cover the number here.


Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: Without being disrespectful to opponents to come in October, the Alabama Crimson Tide will be well aware that November will determine whether they make it back to the SEC Championship Game and then the College Football PlayOffs. Once again the Crimson Tide have been dominating opponents, but a home game against the LSU Tigers and a road game at the Auburn Tigers in November will be key to whether they can win their Division.

In Week 8 the Tennessee Volunteers head to Tuscaloosa, but this has been a difficult season for them. It was expected to be another difficult year for a school that finished with a 5-7 record in 2018 and in only the second year under Jeremy Pruitt, but the Volunteers did win their first Conference game in 2019 in Week 7 to move back to 2-4 for the season.

I do struggle to see the Volunteers earning the wins they need to become Bowl eligible having lost home games to Georgia State and BYU earlier in the season. Uncompetitive losses to the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs does not bode well for the Volunteers who have lost twelve games in a row against the Alabama Crimson Tide with each of the last three losses coming by at least 37 point margins.

Scoring enough points to stay within the current spread for this game looks a long shot for the Volunteers who have struggled to run the ball all season. We have yet to see the Crimson Tide Defensive Line at their very best, but it has always been difficult to establish the run against Alabama and I think it will be more of the same on Saturday.

Brian Maurer suffered an injury last week, but the Quarter Back is expected to be available in Week 8 having started back to back games. He might be a Freshman, but Maurer has impressed since being given the chance to take over as the Quarter Back, although facing the Alabama Defensive unit for the first time can be an eye-opening experience for most.

I would expect the Crimson Tide to put a decent enough pass rush together to trouble Maurer and Alabama can shut them down for the majority of the game.

The weather might be key for Tennessee with scattered showers suggesting the best way of slowing down the Alabama Crimson Tide on the other side of the ball is if the Offense has to be a little one-dimensional. I am clutching at straws to be honest with the Crimson Tide looking like they will have the Offensive balance to do whatever they like in Week 8.

Alabama should be able to run the ball with some big gains expected on the ground, especially as Tua Tagovailoa continues to light up the scoreboard with his arm. Tagovailoa is considered the most likely Quarter Back to go Number 1 in the next NFL Draft, and he has considered to plunder Defenses throughout 2019 as he looks to make up for the National Championship embarrassment suffered at the hands of the Clemson Tigers last year.

Tua Tagovailoa has been well protected behind his Offensive Line and the Volunteers pass rush should be slowed down by the effective establishment of the run. The Tennessee Secondary has struggled all season and Alabama should be able to do whatever they like when they have the ball in their hands.

This is a big spread even with that in mind and especially when you think of how quickly Alabama have pulled Tagovailoa when they have games in hand in 2019. However this is a game that Alabama have dominated in recent years and they have covered some big spreads against the Volunteers with the last three margins enough to cover the line as it is now.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 26.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers + 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 34.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Boston College Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 25-25, - 2.37 Units (50 Units Staked, - 4.74% Yield)