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Showing posts with label Week 10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 10. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 November 2025

NFL Week 10 Picks 2025 (Thursday 6th November-Monday 10th November)

The NFL season ticks along into Week 10 and the move into November will just begin to refocus players as they begin to think about what can be achieved.

It helps that the trade deadline has passed and the last remaining Bye Weeks will soon be concluded, while the back of most schedules are filled with Divisional games, which will obviously have a big impact on how they play out.

There are still a number of Divisional leaders that are perhaps surprising, although the likes of the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers have been reminded that there is still plenty of work to do before they reach the post-season. The Colts made some interesting moves before the trade deadline, as did the Philadelphia Eagles and the next month is going to be important to really firm up the contenders to reach the 2025 Playoffs.


Week 9 was a tough week with so many strange looking lines and getting out of it at 2-2 is perhaps disappointing when thinking of how the Tennessee Titans were able to cover (one Punt Return Touchdown and a Pick Six and only just covered).

There should be more options in Week 10, but Picks will be added in the days ahead.

Opening up is a selection from the AFC West clash to be played on Thursday Night Football and further picks will be added to this thread from the remainder of the Week 10 games to be played.


Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: As we move into the third quarter of the regular season, you would have to suggest that every Divisional leader in the AFC standings is something of a surprise.

Out in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos (7-2) have the chance to become the first team in the NFL to reach eight wins for the season as they lead the way in the Division ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. They have won all four home games played this season, although the Broncos are 2-2 against the spread to ruin what had been a perfect record for Quarter Back Bo Nix when it has come to covering as the home favourite, and Sean Payton's team are big favourites to earn another victory at Mile High.

Thursday Night Football brings together this AFC West against the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) who have traded away Jakobi Meyers having failed to convert a two point try to win the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. This means the first year with Head Coach Pete Carroll and Quarter Back Geno Smith has not gone to plan and the ambition the rest of the way is to make sure they at least match the four wins that were secured in the 2024 season.

Las Vegas do have a surprising road win over the New England Patriots on the resume, the current AFC East Divisional leaders, but three road games played since then have been hard to watch. Not only have the Raiders lost those three games, but the margin of the defeats have been 17, 34 and 31 points and that has to be a concern on the short week.

Of course they are facing a Denver team that have needed big Fourth Quarter heroics to win four of their last five games in this six game winning run.

Sean Payton will be keen to have some of the drama removed from this game so the Broncos have a win on the board and can then rest up and prepare for a big game with the Kansas City Chiefs back in this Stadium in Week 11. That means needing Bo Nix to use some of the Fourth Quarter magic much earlier in the game and it should be noted that Denver have blown out Cincinnati and Dallas here.

The key will be the Line of Scrimmage when the Broncos have the ball- this Offensive Line have been strong up front and opened up some big running lanes for the team, including Bo Nix at Quarter Back, but the challenge is going to be facing up to this Raiders Defensive Line.

As poor as an overall season it has been, the Raiders have been able to play the run pretty well and they have allowed 3.8 yards per carry in the last three games. However, the amount of points being allowed in road games is partly down to the issues Las Vegas have had in stopping the run when playing on the road and so there is going to be a real confidence amongst the Denver Offensive Linemen that they can impose their will on the opponent.

If they can do that, Bo Nix should be able to have a strong game throwing the ball to his talented Receivers.

He has been given time when dropping back to do that and the Raiders Secondary is one that can be exploited by the Broncos.

Bo Nix has not been the most consistent performer this season, but he has been more comfortable at home and this should be an 'easier' game to perform in than it will be for Geno Smith Quarter Backing the Las Vegas Raiders.

Unlike his opposite number, Geno Smith is unlikely to be able to lean on the Offensive Line and look to produce from third and manageable spots on the field. The Raiders have been struggling to run the ball all season and that issue has been really evident in recent games, while in Week 10 they are going up against a strong Denver Defensive Line that has been able to clamp down on the run.

It has shifted a lot of pressure onto the Quarter Back and Geno Smith may be having to deal with a group of Broncos who will be allowed to pin back their ears and get after him in obvious passing situations. Time is likely to run out pretty quickly and that is where the Raiders are going to be struggling without veterans like Jakobi Meyers.

Turnovers could be in play when Geno Smith looks to throw the ball and Denver are likely going to focus on trying to slow down Brock Bowers and force others to step up and beat them. The Broncos are without Patrick Surtain II in the Secondary, but pressure up front against a team that is expected to struggle to run the ball can cover up the hole left in the absence of one of the top Defensive Backs in the NFL.

Last season the Denver Broncos ended their long losing run to the Las Vegas Raiders by beating them twice and both in double digit wins.

The Broncos have failed to cover in their last four Thursday Night games against AFC West opponents, but they can snap that here with the Offensive unit likely to be much more consistent than the Raiders.

This is a big spread and especially when you think of how close recent Denver games have been, even if they have kept winning. However, they have won by margins of 8, 25, 1 and 24 points when playing at home this season and the three straight road blowouts suffered by the Raiders suggests that the Broncos can focus for long enough to secure another double digit win over Las Vegas.


Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Pick: No one is going to be expecting either of these teams to make the post-season in 2025 and the New York Jets (1-7) have made it clear where they see themselves by trading away some key players. It does mean bringing in a number of high Draft Picks which can be used to quickly turn things around, especially as the Jets are on course to finish with the top overall Pick to go with all the others they have traded for.

They are hosting the Cleveland Browns (2-6) who were perhaps not as active as some thought they might be.

Joe Flacco has been traded to the Cincinnati Bengals already and that has allowed Dillon Gabriel to show what he can do at Quarter Back- he has not had a lot of big time Receivers to throw to, but Gabriel still has to show the upper management that he can be the franchise Quarter Back for a Browns team that have been desperate for one for a number of years.

The yards per attempt in recent games underlines the lack of options, but also perhaps the lack of real faith the Browns have in a rookie Quarter Back.

Instead the lean has been behind the Offensive Line and looking to establish the run and put Dillon Gabriel in third and manageable spots on the field. Opponents have likely read that plan and made things tough, but the Browns could have more success against this AFC East opponent, much as they did when pounding the rock against the Miami Dolphins in mid-October.

They should be effective at doing and that the Cleveland Browns will be looking to win the field position battle in this game where the higher-ups might actually want to see the team lose in order to improve potential Draft position.

However, that is not something that will concern the Head Coach or the players on the current roster and the Cleveland Browns can do enough on the ground to open up the passing game. Dillon Gabriel will be throwing against a Secondary that has just traded away Sauce Gardner and so there is a real opportunity for the Browns to have a good day on the Offensive side of the ball.

Doing that should give Cleveland a big edge with the Defensive unit being the best of the four units that will be going onto the field on both sides of the ball.

Cleveland have been very strong at clamping down on the run and if they can control the Line of Scrimmage, they will have a monster edge over this New York Jets Offense.

Justin Fields will offer a dual-threat at Quarter Back and will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but the Jets will struggle with consistency and they have to avoid being in third and long spots. Any time they are in obvious passing situations, the Offensive Line are likely going to find it very difficult to keep the Browns out of the backfield and Fields could find it tough to make enough plays through the air with Garrett Wilson being doubtful for a return.

Throwing under pressure has led to mistakes in the passing game and the Cleveland Browns will be looking to pick up a turnover or two to turn this game firmly in their own favour.

Head Coach Kevin Stefanski does not have a very good record coming out of a Bye in his time with the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets return from a Bye and they could potentially be distracted by the Week 11 schedule.

The Jets will be taking on AFC East leaders New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football and that may just allow the Browns to take advantage with a road win.


New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Pick: A dramatic win that was harder than it should have been has just allowed the Chicago Bears (5-3) to close the gap to the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the NFC North. This is a really competitive Division with none of the four teams having a losing record, but it is important for the Bears to focus on themselves in Ben Johnson's first year as Head Coach.

Next up is a home game against the injury hit New York Giants (2-7) who are almost certainly going to be making changes in the Head Coach position at the end of the season.

Brian Daboll has not really had the tools to avoid being in line for a third straight losing year as the Head Coach of the Giants, but that is unlikely to be enough to save his job.

Rookie Quarter Back Jaxson Dart has given the fans something to hold onto, while another rookie Cam Skattebo had really earned himself some cult support before going down with an injury. Malik Nabers is already out and that has left Dart in a tough spot, although the Quarter Back continues to play with real confidence in his own ability.

Jaxson Dart has not reached 200 passing yards in his last two games, but he does have 3 Touchdown passes without throwing a single Interception, while the Quarter Back never shies away from tucking the ball and running for yards on the ground. He will certainly take real belief out of the issues the Chicago Bears have had in stopping the pass in recent games, although Jaxson Dart won't have everything in his favour.

For example, the Bears Defensive Line have picked up their play in recent outings and they will feel they can control the Line of Scrimmage. The Bears will have to keep one eye on Jaxson Dart and make sure the running lanes are not left open for the rookie, but controlling the usual run will just give Chicago an opportunity to unleash the pass rush and make sure some of the New York drives are stalled.

Things will feel very different on the other side of the ball with the Chicago Offensive Line likely to set up opportunities to rip off some huge gains on the ground. D'Andre Swift may not be able to suit up again, but the Bears have shown they can use the 'next man up' and still have some big rushing gains, while Quarter Back Caleb Williams has shown he is getting more and more comfortable within the system.

Chicago should constantly be in third and manageable spots considering the lack of strength the Giants have shown at the Line of Scrimmage.

And that should make it all the more comfortable when Caleb Williams does step back to throw the ball down the field- the Giants Secondary passing numbers in recent games have looked decent, but that is because they have been pummelled on the ground and teams have simply not had to go to the air for long yardage plays.

Caleb Williams has been given plenty of protection too and the Chicago Bears look capable of backing up the win over the Cincinnati Bengals, even if they had to spend a lot of emotional energy in a game filled with drama.

They do have the Minnesota Vikings on deck, but the Bears have spoken about keeping focused and Williams is 6-2 against the spread after a win.

Since the start of the 2023 season, the Giants are just 7-13 against the spread as the road underdog and the Chicago Bears may just have too much Offensive firepower and consistency for the road team.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4.5 Points @ 1.98 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 25-24, - 1.30 Units (49 Units Staked, - 2.65% Yield)

Friday, 31 October 2025

College Football Week 10 Picks 2025 (Saturday 1st November)

The calendar turning into November means the College Football regular season has turned into the final run and there are a number of teams who will feel that only a place in the Playoff can be seen as a strong season.

Others will have bigger ambitions than merely competing in the post-season and the next month is about being involved in Conference Championship Games and putting an exclamation point on the seasons that these young players have put together.

Some of the top contenders are out of action this week as they go into the final Bye before the end of the season, while there are plenty of opportunities for the higher Ranked teams to remind those in the Playoff Committee about their strengths, while a loaded SEC schedule could see spoilers emerge.


It has been a frustrating season with a huge number of backdoor covers going against the selections- for the second week in a row, Michigan State scored with seconds remaining in a game and that allowed them to cover, even though they were well beaten (I will take no satisfaction out of reports that Jonathan Smith will be fired as Head Coach, but playing to cover is never going to cut it with board members).

A consistent run through the next month could yet put the season in a good position before the Playoffs and Bowl Games begin, but it can only start with a solid week and that is the aim from the six selections made.

Signs up for Bet365, Bovada and Bodog can be made here, and then onto the selections.


Penn State Nittany Lions @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The Big Ten has proven to be a very powerful Conference and in pre-season this would have been a game that could be circled as one of the pivotal ones when it comes to separating the elite and the very, very good. Both the Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) and Penn State Nittany Lions (3-4) were expected to return to the College Football Playoff, but it has been a year that has gone very differently for the two schools.

The defending National Champions Ohio State have looked like a team that could go back to back and they are 4-0 in Big Ten play, which leaves them as one of two unbeaten teams in the Conference. This was one of the games that looked potentially hazardous at the start of the season, but the Buckeyes have been set as a monster favourite as the Penn State season has fallen apart.

Head Coach James Franklin has been fired and the Nittany Lions have lost all four Conference games played to slip under 0.500 for the season. This is a team that have won at least ten games in each of the last three years, while further issues have come out of the fact that Drew Allar has been injured and lost for the season.

A Bye Week can help, although there is no doubt that this is a huge challenge for a Nittany Lions team that have been hit hard over the last month.

Motivation to face the Ohio State Buckeyes will have seen plenty of enthusiasm in the build up to the Week 10 game, but Penn State will need inexperienced Quarter Back Ethan Grunkemeyer to step up very quickly.

There are big expectations being carried by Grunkemeyer, but those would have been for the years ahead and not in 2025- his first start against the Iowa Hawkeyes will have been an eye-opening experience for the young Quarter Back who had 93 passing yards and 2 Interceptions on the day.

Now he has to face an Ohio State Defensive unit that has looked about as good as any out there in the College Football circuit.

Problems begin up front where the Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Line are going to be challenged in their bid to establish the run. With an inexperienced Quarter Back, everyone will know that Penn State will want to put Ethan Grunkemeyer in the best position possible by keeping him in front of the chains, but this Buckeyes Defensive Line have been stout all season. They will perhaps not fear the passing game in any real way and that should see Ohio State clamp down on the ground attack and see how much this Quarter Back has learned over the last couple of weeks.

Despite teams trailing in games against the Buckeyes, opponents have not had a lot of success throwing into this Ohio State Secondary. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line has been pretty good in pass protection, but holding things together for long enough in obvious passing situations will be challenging and it could be a tough day in the office for the road team.

The key to the spread is going to be how well the Nittany Lions can lock down on the other side of the ball.

In recent games, the Defensive Line have just had a few issues in slowing down the run as the competition has stepped up, but they are facing an Ohio State team whose one disappointment this season has been in establishing the run. Head Coach Ryan Day has spoken openly about the issues that have been preventing the Buckeyes Offensive Line from finding the push up front and they have been on a Bye Week with that sole intention of figuring things out.

This is where the spread will be won or lost- if the Buckeyes can even get a little bit going on the ground and improve on recent numbers, Quarter Back Julian Sayin should be in a very comfortable spot. Struggles on the ground have not affected his performances so far this season, but this Penn State Secondary have been playing well and they will believe they can stall some drives.

Ohio State should win, but it has been a long time since they would have been favoured by such a margin to beat Penn State.

This will not be lost on the Nittany Lions who will want to come out of the Bye Week and show what they are made of, but it is a tough situation for them with a Freshman Quarter Back against a very talented Buckeyes Defensive unit. In recent years, the Nittany Lions have been given 17.5 and 18.5 points against Ohio State in 2016 and 2021 respectively and covered both times so they have to be respected.

If the Buckeyes Offensive Line is not able to get the run going up front, this could be a tough game for Ohio State to cover.

However, the feeling is that Ethan Grunkemeyer may be lured into a mistake or two, which gives the Buckeyes the short fields needed to make a big statement to the rest of the College Football nation. The rivalry should keep Penn State involved mentally, but this is a tough test for a team that have taken a lot of blows over the last month and the Buckeyes can make that show on the scoreboard when all is said and done.


UCF Knights @ Baylor Bears Pick: Only one team made it out of the Big 12 to join the College Football Playoff last season, but the top of the Conference looks much stronger this time around.

Unfortunately for the Baylor Bears (4-4) and UCF Knights (4-3), neither is expected to be challenging in those places and games like this one are much more about finding a win to move that much closer to becoming Bowl eligible.

The Knights snapped a two game losing run and are now 1-3 in Big 12 play, while the Baylor Bears head into this game having lost two in a row to drop to 2-3 in the Conference and fall out of contention. Both teams have recently been beaten by the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are one of two teams standing with a 5-0 record in the Big 12 through nine weeks of the season, but the Knights and Bears went about those defeats in very different ways.

UCF are coming out of a Bye Week and they have already matched the four wins secured in 2024, but this feels like a game they might have to win if they are going to reach six and earn a Bowl spot at the end of the regular season. Over the next month the Knights face three Big 12 teams with a combined 22-2 record, and so beating the Baylor Bears feels essential.

Out of the two teams, it does feel like Baylor have been underperforming this season considering the experience they were bringing back from the team that went 8-5 in 2024. Unfortunately for them, the Defensive unit has taken a step backwards and that will make it tough to cover in any game.

Having Tayven Jackson back at Quarter Back and now giving him a two week period to really rehab is a huge boost for the Knights- Jackson played really well in the win over the West Virginia Mountaineers having missed one game.

It might not all be on the sore shoulder of the Quarter Back though and that is because the UCF Offensive Line is likely going to be able to establish the run very effectively. They are facing a Baylor Defensive Line that have allowed teams to rip off some big gains on the ground and it would be a surprise if Tayven Jackson is not being placed in very manageable spots on the field thanks to the UCF ground attack.

Being unable to stop the run has also meant being unable to rush the passer and so Baylor are not expected to be giving Tayven Jackson too many concerns when he does drop back to throw. It has also meant the Secondary have been exposed and so the road team have to be feeling pretty confident that they can sustain drives for as long as needed.

No one will deny it has been messy on the Defensive side of the ball, but Baylor have won four games and a lot of credit has to be given to Sawyer Robertson at Quarter Back. He impressed in Spring Training and Robertson has picked up from where he left off in the 2024 season, but also should be credited for the slight improvement in the numbers and he is going to be key in keeping Baylor competitive the rest of the way.

It has largely come down to Sawyer Robertson because of an inconsistent rushing return and the Bears Offensive Line are not expected to get a lot of change out of this UCF Defensive Line. In 2024 the Knights played the run well and this unit has been just as good, which is going to mean they can force the Baylor Quarter Back to try and beat them out of third and long spots.

Sawyer Robertson could find himself under some duress when he drops back to throw, while the Knights Secondary have long been a tough unit to throw against. The quality of the Quarter Back suggests he will have some success, but Robertson is going to have to be careful with the ball and that can be difficult when the pocket is collapsing around you.

Baylor are favoured, but Head Coach Dave Aranda has led his team to a 12-17 record against the spread when being asked to lay points.

Defensively the Bears are finding it tough to stop anyone, which makes winning a chore, never mind covering a mark, and the UCF Knights have a team capable of keeping this very competitive. There is every chance the Knights win this as the underdog outright, so taking more than a Field Goal worth of points looks a pretty easy decision.


Indiana Hoosiers @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: The last fifteen months have seen a stunning turnaround for the Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) and it will take a significant collapse for the team to miss the College Football Playoff. Making it into the Playoff in back to back seasons under Head Coach Curt Cignetti will be a remarkable achievement for a school that had won just nine games between 2021 and 2023 before finishing with an 11-2 record in 2024.

They are set to play in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, although the Hoosiers have to still win four more regular season games to do that. However, Indiana are going to be a big favourite to win all of those games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue and beginning in College Park this week.

The Maryland Terrapins (4-3) have matched the win total from 2024, but they are 1-3 in the Big Ten and still need two wins to return to Bowl eligibility. They are coming out of a Bye Week and so should be fully prepared for a huge test and Head Coach Mike Locksley will be hoping to improve the 4-8 record against the spread that Maryland have put together when playing with rest.

They have lost three straight games going into that Bye Week and the Terrapins will be well aware that they are facing one of the best teams in College Football and not just in the Big Ten.

Running the ball against the Hoosiers Defensive Line has proven to be extremely difficult and that has set Offensive units behind the chains right from the get-go. Maryland's Offensive Line are not expected to have a lot more joy pounding the rock than previous Indiana opponents, although they can look to exploit Malik Washington's legs from the Quarter Back position to try and keep the Hoosiers guessing.

It is not expected to be a sustainable approach though and instead Washington's arm has to be operating at a high level.

He does have 11 Touchdown passes and 3 Interceptions this season, but Malik Washington is completing less than 60% of his attempts and that becomes all the tougher when set with third and long spots. The Terrapins Offensive Line has offered up solid enough protection, but keeping the Hoosiers pass rush out of the backfield when in obvious spots to throw the ball will be challenging and makes completing passes a hazardous task.

Running the ball is not expected to be so challenging for the Indiana Hoosiers- credit has to be given to Maryland for the overall Defensive Line numbers, but during this three game losing run in the Big Ten, the Terrapins have allowed teams to pick up 5 yards per carry as the competition level has been increased significantly.

The three Conference opponents faced in that time cannot really be compared with the Indiana Hoosiers and the road team are expected to pick up chunks of yards on the ground to make things very comfortable for Quarter Back Fernando Mendoza.

After having a solid season as Quarter Back of the California Golden Bears, Fernando Mendoza would have taken over the role with the Indiana Hoosiers with some big expectations to fulfil. Arguably he has surpassed those already with almost 2000 passing yards and and 24 Touchdown passes to go alongside just 3 Interceptions.

With the Hoosiers Offensive Line expected to push the team into third and manageable spots for much of the day, Mendoza should have ample time to dissect this Maryland Secondary and continue to pile up his passing numbers. The protection being given to the Quarter Back makes life all the more comfortable and Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Offensive unit are unlikely to be slowed in this one.

Weather conditions should be perfect for the Big Ten leaders and Indiana can secure their first victory in this Stadium since 2019.

Covering will be a challenge, especially as Maryland are 4-0 against the spread when set as the underdog in 2025, but it feels like a game in which Indiana are going to be moving the chains with a lot more consistency than the home team. A mistake or two could just allow the Hoosiers to pull away, even if they have Penn State on deck as a potential distraction.


Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be held in Jacksonville again in 2025 and both the Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) and Florida Gators (3-4) will be coming out of a Bye Week ready to compete in this rivalry game.

Out of the two teams, it is the Georgia Bulldogs trying to stay on track with their 4-1 record in the SEC meaning they are just outside of the current projected Championship Game. Winning out may not be enough to earn a spot in that Conference Championship setting at the end of the regular season, but the Bulldogs would almost certainly be invited into the College Football Playoff, especially if Georgia Tech keep winning before the final week of the regular season.

The Florida Gators are 2-2 in the SEC and they are not going to chasing anything more than a Bowl spot, although being able to dent a rival is clearly going to offer some motivation.

Despite edging past Mississippi State in Week 8, Florida made a move they had been considering for some time and Head Coach Billy Napier has been fired. This does make things harder to factor with the players now able to think about joining the transfer portal, while the uncertainty about the direction the school will take having been treading water is also hard to determine.

Even reaching the eight win total of 2024 is going to be tough for the Gators from this current position, but they will have tried to focus on things that can be controlled and that is putting the best foot forward in this big SEC game.

As good as the Georgia Bulldogs have been in recent years, the Florida Gators have to believe that there is an opportunity to earn the upset. We have not really seen the Bulldogs put together a complete game and DJ Lagway has tethered his future to Florida and will be looking to put on a big performance from the Quarter Back position.

Running the ball effectively will help, although that has been something that the Georgia Defensive unit have been been able to clamp down upon to give their team a chance. The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is one that will determine which way this game will go, although DJ Lagway will have seen some holes in the Georgia Secondary that he can exploit.

There are going to be similar questions asked at the Line of Scrimmage when the Bulldogs have the ball- they may have found a way to win recent games, but the Georgia Offensive Line have struggled to open consistent running lanes and trying to force that against this Gators Defensive Line looks a tough task for them.

Much like Florida, the lean will be on the Quarter Back and Gunner Stockton is highly motivated to have a big performance from a personal level.

Gunner Stockton's grandfather passed away right here after the Georgia-Florida game in 2010 and he has made it clear that he is playing with that memory in mind.

The likelihood is that the Quarter Back can have a very big game against a Florida Secondary that has struggled to stop the pass in the SEC games played. The Gators do have a very good pass rush, which can be a problem when a team is in third and long spots, but Georgia's Offensive Line have offered Stockton time when he has stepped back to throw and the Quarter Back deserves plenty of credit for the way he has managed to look after the ball when throwing down the field.

It is the Quarter Back edge that gives Georgia the advantage in this one and the Bulldogs have won the last four games in this series and all by at least 14 points.

Florida will be motivated and can cause some problems, but Gunner Stockton is going to want to put on a show and he can help the Bulldogs pull clear in the second half.


Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: There are some big SEC Head Coaching roles already available and one of those is with the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6) who need to find some SEC upsets if they are going to become Bowl eligible. It is looking increasingly unlikely and the Razorbacks job is not nearly as attractive as posts with the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers, but Interim Head Coach Bobby Petrino is just hoping to guide this group of players to snap a six game losing run.

The Razorbacks are 0-4 in the SEC, but they did win three Conference games last year and the slump is not nearly as long as the one that Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) are suffering through.

Mississippi State may only be two wins away from being Bowl eligible, but they have lost all four SEC games and that makes it sixteen Conference defeats in succession.

The Bulldogs are going to be underdogs in all four remaining games this season so they are going to need to find some upsets if they are going to avoid a third season in a row finishing with a losing record. The main focus is simply getting one win on the board in the SEC and showing improvement from 2024, but closes losses to Florida and Texas over the last couple of weeks will have hit hard.

The last team that Mississippi State beat in the SEC was Arkansas in 2023 and that was in this Stadium.

It is going to be a chance for the Offensive Line to get things going having struggled to establish the run in recent games against strong SEC Defensive Lines. However, this week they are facing an Arkansas Defensive Line that has simply not played the run very well at all this season and putting Quarter Back Blake Shapen in third and manageable spots will be a real help.

You cannot be sure that the Bulldogs will take advantage of the Line of Scrimmage issues being faced by the home Defensive unit, but there is a chance. Blake Shapen has also played pretty well without a lot of run support and he has almost 2000 passing yards with 11 Touchdown passes this season, while the Arkansas Defense may be concentrating on trying to stop the run, leaving the Secondary open to be attacked.

One real problem has been the turnstile nature of the Bulldogs Offensive Line when they have tried to give the Quarter Back time to throw the ball. If they are in third and long spots, even this Razorbacks team may be able to flood the backfield and try and force Blake Shapen to throw out of tough situations on the field, which can lead to errors being made and drives to stall.

There are questions about how effective the Mississippi State rush is going to be against a vulnerable Defensive Line, but the Arkansas Offensive Line are going to be very confident they can open things up to pound the rock. This is a team that have flourished on the ground, even when coming up to the SEC level of play, and the Bulldogs Defensive Line have not been much help at containing teams up front.

Quarter Back Taylen Green is very effective at tucking the ball and making plays with his legs, and there is no doubting the character of a player who is pushing through the pain to lead his team.

It should all mean the Razorbacks are able to play from in front of the chains and that in turn opens up big passing lanes with the Bulldogs having to pay more attention to stopping the ground game from gashing them.

This Bulldogs Secondary have been given up plenty of big plays and that is something that Green can exploit, although he has to be careful with the ball after throwing 3 Interceptions in a nine point loss in Week 9. Despite the numbers given up through the air, the Bulldogs have been able to step in front of routes and turn the ball over and that will give them an opportunity to keep this one close.

Head Coach Jeff Lebby may not have helped his team earn a win in the Conference, but the Bulldogs have been a team that have shown plenty of competitive spirit. This makes it hard to oppose them, but Arkansas do look to have a team with a more balance Offensive output and that can see the Razorbacks avoid becoming the first SEC team to lose to the Bulldogs since the 2023 Arkansas team did that right here in this Stadium.


South Carolina Gamecocks @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: There are just three Conference games left for the Mississippi Rebels (7-1) and winning out would likely be good enough to see them invited into the College Football Playoff. Rumours around the future of Head Coach Lane Kiffin could have been a major distraction for the Rebels, especially after the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, but the team bounced back with a road win over the Oklahoma Sooners to move to 4-1 in the Conference.

Hope has not been lost when it comes to winning a first SEC Championship in over sixty years, but other results will need to go their way.

With that in mind, the Rebels have to focus on just winning the games in front of them and that begins with this home game against the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-5) who have not met big pre-season expectations.

The Gamecocks put everything into the Week 9 game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but came up short and they are now 1-5 in the SEC. Head Coach Shane Beamer is another who has been linked with vacant roles, notably with the Virginia Tech Hokies, but there is not going to be pressure on him to depart within South Carolina, even if the team are not going to reach the nine win mark of 2024.

An inconsistent Offensive performance has been a letdown considering the experience that the Gamecocks were bringing into the new season.

It all begins up front where the Offensive Line have not been able to put together a consistent rushing attack and that has meant the pressure has been on Quarter Back LaNorris Sellers to find a way to keep the chains moving. There is a chance that this week South Carolina have a bit more success on the ground, and they will need that if only to allow Sellers to have more time to throw the ball.

The Offensive Line have not been able to open the running lanes and have also struggled in pass protection and LaNorris Sellers is going to be faced with real pressure from the Rebels pass rush. He will have noted that recent Mississippi opponents have found spots in the Secondary that can be attacked with success, but Sellers will need time and the passing game has been far from consistent.

It is a pressure that will be increased if the Rebels can continue what has been a productive Offensive performance, one that has shown up even as they have moved into the heart of the SEC schedule.

Recent games have seen the Rebels fail to establish the run quite as effectively as they have for much of the season, but this will feel like a step down in level compared with other SEC teams they have been facing. The Gamecocks haven't been as porous as some teams on the ground, but they do allow teams to establish the ground game and that could be the case in Week 10, which will suit Trinidad Chambliss all the way.

He did not come into the season as the Mississippi starting Quarter Back, but Chambliss has taken advantage of his opportunities and impressed in the role. This is not going to be an easy test, but Trinidad Chambliss will have time in the pocket and he has shown he has the patience to hit the spots needed when throwing the ball down the field.

Over 1800 passing yards have been thrown and a single Interception has been issued out in that time, while Chambliss has 8 Touchdown passes. The Gamecocks have shown some quality in defending the pass, but the Secondary may not have all of the answers needed in this game and that gives Ole Miss the edge.

It is a big spread, which is always a concern in a competitive SEC, but you have to wonder how much the Gamecocks have left in the tank after giving Alabama all they could handle last week.

South Carolina are 1-1 against the spread as the road underdog in the SEC this season, which makes them dangerous, but this is another road game at the end of a tough run of games and just before the Bye Week. It could be easy for the Gamecocks to look ahead to that and have one final push towards the end of the regular season, and that would leave them vulnerable to a high-scoring Rebels team.

It may need a late turnover/score for the Rebels to push past this line, but they are at home and Mississippi can produce a solid, statement win that just keeps them in touch with the leading teams in the Conference.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 18.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
UCF Knights + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Thursday, 7 November 2024

NFL Week 10 Picks 2024 (Thursday 7th November-Monday 11th November)

We don't really have the kind of blockbuster moves at the trade deadline in the NFL as you can get with the other US sports, but it is still a good time to assess the potential of teams and, more importantly, what teams believe they are capable of achieving.

With that in mind, some of the top NFL teams have made moves to strengthen their prospects for January and February and the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions look poised for big things.

However, if there is one thing we know about the NFL, it is that nothing is decided in November and there are always teams capable of getting very hot in December and rolling right through to a Super Bowl win. Despite all of the naysayers and some of the boo birds that seem to be accompanying every game they play, the Philadelphia Eagles are moving into a dangerous position to make a run as long as they can stay healthy.

Teams like Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco will have plenty of supporters behind them, although the lack of experience around Washington perhaps means we are yet to learn how far the Commanders can go. Two games with the Eagles in the NFC East will certainly paint a better picture about their prospects and there are some teams that have not been mentioned that have every reason to believe in their own capabilities having set a solid foundation from the first half of the season.


The Week 9 NFL Picks returned a very slight positive number, but it is a positive number and secures a really productive first half of the 2024 season.

As well as things have gone, it is very easy for fortune to turn and so it is key to not get carried away and to maintain some focus in the weeks ahead.

At the moment the tighter selection process has worked out well, but focusing on moving forward and not getting too far ahead of myself is the key to ensure another winning season from the sport. The NFL can be a very erratic League at times and spreads are being put together by very smart people, so it is a good start, but only a start.

In Week 10 we do have a selection from Thursday Night Football as two AFC North teams face off for the second time this season and further Picks will be added to this thread.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Cleveland Browns look like they are out of contention in the AFC North, but the other three teams in the Division have made moves before the trade deadline, which suggest they are looking to have an impact in the Playoffs in January.

Two of those teams face each other on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 of the 2024 season and it is the second time the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will face off. The Ravens won in Overtime when visiting the Bengals in what was a really fun game, but one that Cincinnati will feel they lost rather than the Ravens won.

Baltimore may have a different kind of mind towards that, and Lamar Jackson has continued his recent dominance of this Divisional rival. Sweeping the season series would likely have the Ravens feeling they cannot finish behind the Bengals in the standings and would make up for the disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Both of these teams put up 41 points in victories in Week 9 as they prepare for a short week, although one in which both Baltimore and Cincinnati will be pretty familiar with what the other wants to do.

Ultimately it then comes down to which of the two teams can impose their will on the other a bit more effectively and the balance of this Baltimore Offensive unit makes them very, very dangerous. Head Coach John Harbaugh has been praising the impact of Derrick Henry and feels the Ravens are considerably more dangerous with a Running Back of that elite level compared to where they have been previously.

Derrick Henry was contained to some extent in the win over Cincinnati earlier in the season... That is until he ripped off a huge run that set up the victory for the Ravens! In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well, so they may have some early success when it comes to hitting Henry, although the fact that Lamar Jackson is also very capable of moving the ball with his legs will just keep the Bengals guessing.

It was actually Lamar Jackson's arm that impressed most in the win over the Bengals on the road and 4 Touchdown passes with almost 350 passing yards kept Baltimore battling before coming through in Overtime. Diontae Johnson may have more of an impact in this one having arrived in a trade from the Carolina Panthers and failing to earn a catch in Week 9, while Jackson could have yet another strong showing against this Bengals Defensive unit.

Joe Burrow actually played better than Lamar Jackson in the first meeting having compiled almost 400 passing yards and with 5 Touchdown passes. However, it was his late Interception that proved costly with the Bengals driving deep into Baltimore territory and when already holding a 3 point lead.

He would love to have that back, but Burrow could pick up from where he left off against this Ravens Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It will be down to the Quarter Back considering the issues the Bengals have in establishing the run and the Ravens Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball.

Having a returning Tee Higgins would help, while it feels very important to have Orlando Brown Jr back at Left Tackle- out of the two, Brown Jr is perhaps more likely to suit up and that will be important to try and keep the pocket clean for their Quarter Back, especially if he does not have his full complement of Receiving options.

You still have to believe Joe Burrow will make some big plays, but the pressure will be on without a running game and with Ja'Marr Chase perhaps having a few more eyes focused on him without Tee Higgins.

Facing a relentless Baltimore team, the pressure could force Burrow into an errant throw, and that may end up turning the game in favour of the hosts.

Lamar Jackson has dominated this Divisional rival and there is every chance the Ravens have a big enough lead to avoid the backdoor cover when all is said and done on Thursday Night Football.


Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants Pick: Both teams look certain to miss the Playoffs again and there are likely going to be big changes at the end of this season for the New York Giants (2-7). A bit more patience may be needed with the Carolina Panthers (2-7), who won in Week 9 to at least give themselves a boost as the two teams head to Munich for the last NFL game to be played on European soil until 2025.

With both teams sharing the same record, some will feel it is a real surprise to have the New York Giants down as a big favourite, but there is a reason that is the case.

The Giants have lost four in a row, but those have been against the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders. Only the Bengals have a losing record right now of those four teams, but there is every chance they will rally to become a Playoff team, while the other three teams all look on course to reach the post-season.

Keeping that in mind, it does mean the Giants have perhaps been a victim of the schedule as much as their own poor Offensive play and this is a big opportunity for Daniel Jones against a much weaker Defensive unit than he has face for a while.

Losing Saquon Barkley in the off-season looks a worse decision when seeing what he is doing with NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Giants Offensive Line have still been able to open up some solid running lanes. Tyrone Tracy Jr has benefited and he should be able to put up some decent numbers on the ground in this one, while Daniel Jones is also capable of moving the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position.

It should mean the Giants are playing out of third and manageable spots on the field, while this may be a rare game in which the New York Offensive Line is able to give Daniel Jones some time in the pocket. Running the ball has not been a problem, but the pass protection has not played up to the same level, although in this game in Munich they are facing a Panthers team that have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back with any consistency.

Daniel Jones will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if he and Tracy Jr can pound the rock on the ground, and the Quarter Back does have some Receivers who can create space against this Carolina Secondary.

Covering a big number like this one is about scoring points, which has been an issue for the Giants, but they may feel that they can protect those points that they are able to produce on the scoreboard. The New York Defensive unit has played much better than the other side of the ball and they will feel they match up pretty well with this Carolina Offensive unit that has Bryce Young starting at Quarter Back.

It has been possible to run the ball against the New York Giants, but it may not be as easy for a banged up Carolina Offensive Line to create the holes that others have been able to do. Chuba Hubbard looked in good form in the Week 9 win over the New Orleans Saints to snap out of something of a funk, although the game plan for the Giants may be to play up closer to the Line of Scrimmage and see if Bryce Young can beat them through the air.

The Giants Secondary have actually played pretty well so they will be confident, especially with the Panthers short in the Receiving corps. There is still an inconsistency about Bryce Young, while the Giants have a pass rush that could have the Quarter Back scrambling around for time in the pocket.

Throwing Interceptions continues to be an issue for Bryce Young and the feeling is that the New York Giants can make enough plays on this side of the ball to move into a position to win and cover. Backing bad teams to win games by comfortable margins is something that I have looked to avoid this season, but this is a spot where the New York Giants may just take advantage of a Panthers team that put in a lot to beat a Divisional rival in Week 9.

New York match up pretty well on both sides of the ball with what they are going to be facing and Daniel Jones can just ease the pressure and talk around his future by helping the Giants to a solid win in Germany before heading into their Bye Week.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: After two weeks and with 91 points scored, the New Orleans Saints (2-7) could not have imagined where they would be at the halfway mark of the 2024 season.

Seven straight injuries have ended with Head Coach Dennis Allen fired and the Saints have traded away Marshon Lattimore. Instead of thinking about the Playoffs, the New Orleans Saints might already be considering their Draft Position for next year as injuries have piled up throughout the roster.

Next up is the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) who have taken control of the NFC South.

This is what was expected from the Falcons after bringing in Kirk Cousins as the starting Quarter Back and five wins in six games have given the team a real lift. Winning in Week 10 would push the Falcons to 5-0 within the NFC South and it would mean they are also a considerable way to securing at least one home Playoff game in January.

It is never the best position to be siding with the public when they are pumping a road favourite as much as they are with the Falcons in Week 10, but there looks to be a considerable advantage for the road team who will enjoy playing under the Dome.

Derek Carr has returned at Quarter Back for the Saints, but he was not able to inspire a win at the Carolina Panthers and was heavily criticised for a pass that left Chris Olave out to dry. The concussion suffered by the young Receiver has ruled him out this game and New Orleans will have to lean on their Offensive Line to try and keep themselves in front of the chains.

This should be possible against the Falcons Defensive Line, while Derek Carr may be offered more protection than any New Orleans Quarter Back has been used to. One of the problems for the Falcons is having a Defensive unit that has struggled to make consistent stops, and that will need to be improved if they want to have a deep run in the post-season, but it is also going to be challenging for New Orleans with the injuries to keep things ticking over.

An interim Head Coach has inspired teams to big performances and there is no doubt that the Falcons are expecting that to happen.

However, the New Orleans Defensive unit has been hurt badly with injuries restricting their ability to make plays and you have to believe Kirk Cousins can expose the holes that have been evident.

The Falcons should find an easy balance on the Offensive side of the ball and it will be very tough for New Orleans to prevent the road team from moving up and down the field. Kirk Cousins can lean on the running game behind the Offensive Line, while there is a chance that Drake London will be back to just offer another Receiving threat for the Quarter Back to utilise.

When these teams met back in September, the Falcons were perhaps fortunate to come away with a win, but the teams have moved in vastly different directions since then. Despite the firing of their Head Coach and the expected reaction to that, the Saints made moves ahead of the trade deadline that may have all feeling that 2025 is already the focus and the Atlanta Falcons may just have too much scoring power for an injury hit New Orleans team to do with.


San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They are fortunate to be playing in the relatively weak looking NFC West and the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) will come out of their Bye Week with Christian McCaffrey ready to return. Injuries have perhaps restricted the 49ers and prevented them from building the momentum to really take control of the Division, and there is a slight concern at being 1-2 against NFC West opponents, but more is expected from San Francisco going forward.

Travelling across the country for a 1pm Eastern Time kick off is not ideal, especially with a Divisional rival next up, but the Bye should mean the 49ers are ready.

Add to that the fact they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) who have been seriously hurt by injuries to key players and who have lost three in a row.

Baker Mayfield is still playing pretty well at Quarter Back, but losing Chris Godwin for the season and having Mike Evans on the sidelines recovering from a hamstring issue is a real blow for the team. Despite that, Mayfield and the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points to at least remain competitive, although the Defensive unit have not been able to create the stops that may have turned momentum.

Earlier in the season the Buccaneers may have actually been able to establish the run with some consistency to help the Quarter Back, but that may not be as easy against a fresher San Francisco Defensive Line. They actually went into the Bye Week playing better at the Line of Scrimmage and there is a feeling that the 49ers can make sure they control things up front knowing there are backups playing for the Buccaneers in the Wide Receiver positions.

The Quarter Back has maintained some strong numbers and the Offensive plans have given the Buccaneers a chance, and that has to be respected here. The Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have been solid enough in pass protection to deserve plenty of respect too so there is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to at least put up enough points for Tampa Bay to believe they can win as the home underdog.

However, the question really is whether the Defensive unit can step up for the Buccaneers and that is perhaps asking a bit too much of the current team from what we have seen in recent games.

Even without the threat of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers Offensive Line have really been bullying teams up front and they are likely going to establish the run with a lot more consistency than their hosts. It has been a problem for the Buccaneers during their three game losing run, while the return of Christian McCaffrey also offers Brock Purdy another Receiving threat capable of picking up a lot of yards after the catch.

Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, although Brock Purdy could benefit from the like of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel having a Bye Week to just get through some of the injuries and illnesses that had been holding them back. With the main Running Back, the 49ers will be that much more dangerous and that should mean Brock Purdy can run the Offensive unit as he wants.

The 49ers Offensive Line have offered plenty of protection for Purdy, who is also going to get the ball out of his hands pretty quickly, and it should mean San Francisco are moving the ball efficiently.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the way the Buccaneers have continued to play through adversity, but the 49ers are fresh and this is a short week for Tampa Bay having put so much into an Overtime loss on Monday Night Football at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9.


Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: They may feel there is plenty of room for improvement after the Week 9 win against the Indianapolis Colts, but it is much easier to deal with that after putting a victory together. Snapping a two game losing run will have the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) feeling better, although it does mean they are behind the Detroit Lions in what is a very competitive NFC North Division.

The focus has to be on their own performances and the Vikings will be looking to push their way into the Playoffs at the end of this season, either as a Divisional Champion or as a dangerous Wild Card team.

This looks a good chance to back up the win over one AFC South when facing another and that is because the hosts Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) are expected to go into Week 10 without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. To make matters even tougher, the Receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries and it is going to be a big challenge for backup CJ Beathard to help his team move the ball with any consistency.

Jacksonville might have lost their last two games, but they have been a lot more competitive since the embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears in London. However, doing the same without Trevor Lawrence is going to be very difficult and especially with this Minnesota Vikings team in front of a backup that may not always see what is coming.

If they could run the ball and take the pressure away from CJ Beathard, it would help, but that is not likely going to be the case for the Jaguars. Instead the Quarter Back could be forced to throw from third and long spots, while trying to work out where Brian Flores is sending the pressure from.

It is a bend, don't break kind of Secondary, but unlikely that CJ Beathard is going to have a lot of consistent success if the likes of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr are not able to go. Christian Kirk has been ruled out for the season and all in all, this looks like it could be a long day Offensively for a team that is struggling.

Playing out of a primetime spot and having a big Divisional game up next does make this an awkward spot for the Minnesota Vikings. However, Sam Darnold is looking to just round into more consistent form again at Quarter Back and he should be able to offer the Vikings plenty of balance on the Offensive side of the ball.

Aaron Jones has arrived from rivals Green Bay and has shown there is still plenty in the tank as far as the Running Back is concerned and he is playing behind a Minnesota Offensive Line which has been capable of opening up some strong lanes for him. This has really helped Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, although Darnold has admitted he needs to be a bit more careful with the ball as Interceptions have perhaps become too frequent for his and his Head Coach's liking.

Pressure around him has not helped, but Sam Darnold should have a cleaner pocket with the team operating in third and manageable, while the play-action will open up if the Vikings are running the ball as expected. There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that can be exploited, and Sam Darnold is fortunate to be playing with some big time Receivers and it should allow Minnesota to pull clear.

If Trevor Lawrence was going to suit up, the Jaguars would have the potential for a backdoor cover, but that is all the more difficult with CJ Beathard behind Center.

The schedule spot is far from ideal, but the Vikings can get the better of another AFC South team and earn another cover on their way to a seventh win of the season.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It doesn't feel that long ago that the NFC East might have been considered the best Division in the NFL, but that is not the case in 2024.

Even then, it looks like on that could potentially be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs in the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2). Despite the noise coming down from the stands and some of the criticism in the media, Head Coach Nick Sirianni has guided the Eagles just behind the Commanders in the Division and with a big game coming up between the top two teams in the NFC East in Week 11.

It is a game to be played on Thursday Night Football so there is a slight concern that the Eagles could be looking past the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) who are going to be without Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.

A third loss in a row has dropped the Cowboys to a couple of games below 0.500 and Mike McCarthy has to be feeling his seat heating up day by day as the Head Coach. In reality Jerry Jones should be taking plenty of the 'credit' for the way this season has developed, but the axe will fall on the Head Coach who was perhaps fortunate to remain in charge ahead of the 2024 season.

Dak Prescott is out, but Cooper Rush will come in as backup with a 5-1 record as a starter in relief, although he is not going to be benefit from a lot of support around him. In previous outings, Rush might have leaned on the Dallas Offensive Line, but they have struggled to establish the run this season and the improving Philadelphia Defensive Line may be extra keen to clamp down up front and see if Cooper Rush can beat them through the air.

Another issue for the Offensive Line, which is banged up, is that they have not really offered much protection for Dak Prescott and that is unlikely to improve for their backup Quarter Back. The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush could cause massive problems for Rush every time he steps back to throw, especially when stuck in third and long spots, and that pressure up front has certainly allowed the Eagles Secondary to make some big plays.

The experience of Cooper Rush as a starter will at least help, but it looks a good opportunity for the Eagles to make enough big plays on this side of the ball to set things up for their Offensive unit to pull away for an impressive win.

Much like others have managed this season, the Eagles will look to the Offensive Line to just push Dallas around up front and a number of Running Backs have had big outings against the Cowboys already. His personal record against Dallas has been disappointing from his time with the New York Giants, but Saquon Barkley can finally get the better of the team as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Some may have thought Barkley was not worth bringing in, but he has been a key part of this Eagles Offensive unit and can have a very strong outing.

Last weekend the Head Coach would have been criticised for some of the bizarre play-calling for the Eagles when in fourth and inches, but his team still managed to win for a fourth time in a row. Saquon Barkley has just taken some of the pressure away from Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are also available, who also benefit from the running game being as productive as it has been.

The Cowboys have gotten some pressure up front and that pass rush could be boosted by a returning Micah Parsons, although they will need to find a way to contain Saquon Barkley to really have an opportunity to get after the Quarter Back.

With Kellen Moore at Offensive Co-Ordinator, there is going to be motivation from the Eagles to try and really and give the former Dallas Co-Ordinator a boost. That could mean attempting to run up the score here and Philadelphia could really get one over on their Divisional rival with a strong win on the road.


Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: If it was possible, the NFL may have seen this Monday Night Football flexed out of the spot, but it will be the Miami Dolphins (2-6) heading West to take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4).

It is the Rams who are entrenched in a Divisional battle with the NFC West congested, but the season for the Dolphins has been difficult to say the least. There is still a hope that things can turn around for Miami, who have already faced Buffalo twice, but they have lost a couple of close games since Tua Tagovailoa has been able to return at Quarter Back and need to start changing that narrative if they are going to work their way into the post-season.

At this point of the season, Miami's margin for error is almost down to zero with the expectation being fewer than nine wins will not be good enough.

They have looked better Offensively with their starting Quarter Back behind Center, and there is an expectation for Miami to maintain that push on this side of the ball. The Rams have won three in a row, which perhaps was a factor in keeping the core of the roster together through the trade deadline, but they are still a team that can give up some big plays.

During this winning run, the Rams Defensive Line have clamped down on the run, but that is not going to be as easy against a Miami team with big Offensive weapons. Mike McDaniel will always feel that the run can open up the big passing lanes down the field and he will not lose faith in what the Dolphins can do on the ground having seen some consistent performances from his Running Back and Offensive Line.

The Miami Offensive Line have offered some solid protection for their Quarter Back and this is going to be a key part of the game as they look to just ease the Los Angeles pass rush. Running the ball will help and Tua Tagovailoa can employ his Running Backs as catchers out of the backfield, which will just keep the Rams guessing and open up opportunities against this Secondary.

There is every chance that this will be an exciting primetime game considering the challenges that Miami will face when Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the ball.

Injuries have just cleared up for the Rams, which has really given Stafford the chance to lead his team forward, and the veteran Quarter Back will have his top Receivers on the field who are very capable of finding the spaces in the Secondary to exploit.

Running the ball might be more challenging for the Rams, even with Kyren Williams continuing to impress out of the backfield. However, Matthew Stafford is more than capable of leading the Rams forward and he, and his Receivers, can put the Rams into a position to win the game.

With a limited pass rush, Miami will give Matthew Stafford time in the pocket and that should mean both teams are capable of moving the ball and scoring points.

A shoot out would not be a surprise considering the issues in the Secondaries and the Offensive-minded Head Coaches prowling the sidelines and that is the lean for this Monday Night Football game. It is a big number, but the conditions should be comfortable for the Quarter Backs taking to the field and some quick strikes may be produced to help take the game over the line set.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams-Miami Dolphins Over 48.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)