NFL Week 10 Picks 2024 (Thursday 7th November-Monday 11th November)

We don't really have the kind of blockbuster moves at the trade deadline in the NFL as you can get with the other US sports, but it is still a good time to assess the potential of teams and, more importantly, what teams believe they are capable of achieving.

With that in mind, some of the top NFL teams have made moves to strengthen their prospects for January and February and the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions look poised for big things.

However, if there is one thing we know about the NFL, it is that nothing is decided in November and there are always teams capable of getting very hot in December and rolling right through to a Super Bowl win. Despite all of the naysayers and some of the boo birds that seem to be accompanying every game they play, the Philadelphia Eagles are moving into a dangerous position to make a run as long as they can stay healthy.

Teams like Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco will have plenty of supporters behind them, although the lack of experience around Washington perhaps means we are yet to learn how far the Commanders can go. Two games with the Eagles in the NFC East will certainly paint a better picture about their prospects and there are some teams that have not been mentioned that have every reason to believe in their own capabilities having set a solid foundation from the first half of the season.

The Week 9 NFL Picks returned a very slight positive number, but it is a positive number and secures a really productive first half of the 2024 season.

As well as things have gone, it is very easy for fortune to turn and so it is key to not get carried away and to maintain some focus in the weeks ahead.

At the moment the tighter selection process has worked out well, but focusing on moving forward and not getting too far ahead of myself is the key to ensure another winning season from the sport. The NFL can be a very erratic League at times and spreads are being put together by very smart people, so it is a good start, but only a start.

In Week 10 we do have a selection from Thursday Night Football as two AFC North teams face off for the second time this season and further Picks will be added to this thread.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Cleveland Browns look like they are out of contention in the AFC North, but the other three teams in the Division have made moves before the trade deadline, which suggest they are looking to have an impact in the Playoffs in January.

Two of those teams face each other on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 of the 2024 season and it is the second time the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will face off. The Ravens won in Overtime when visiting the Bengals in what was a really fun game, but one that Cincinnati will feel they lost rather than the Ravens won.

Baltimore may have a different kind of mind towards that, and Lamar Jackson has continued his recent dominance of this Divisional rival. Sweeping the season series would likely have the Ravens feeling they cannot finish behind the Bengals in the standings and would make up for the disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Both of these teams put up 41 points in victories in Week 9 as they prepare for a short week, although one in which both Baltimore and Cincinnati will be pretty familiar with what the other wants to do.

Ultimately it then comes down to which of the two teams can impose their will on the other a bit more effectively and the balance of this Baltimore Offensive unit makes them very, very dangerous. Head Coach John Harbaugh has been praising the impact of Derrick Henry and feels the Ravens are considerably more dangerous with a Running Back of that elite level compared to where they have been previously.

Derrick Henry was contained to some extent in the win over Cincinnati earlier in the season... That is until he ripped off a huge run that set up the victory for the Ravens! In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well, so they may have some early success when it comes to hitting Henry, although the fact that Lamar Jackson is also very capable of moving the ball with his legs will just keep the Bengals guessing.

It was actually Lamar Jackson's arm that impressed most in the win over the Bengals on the road and 4 Touchdown passes with almost 350 passing yards kept Baltimore battling before coming through in Overtime. Diontae Johnson may have more of an impact in this one having arrived in a trade from the Carolina Panthers and failing to earn a catch in Week 9, while Jackson could have yet another strong showing against this Bengals Defensive unit.

Joe Burrow actually played better than Lamar Jackson in the first meeting having compiled almost 400 passing yards and with 5 Touchdown passes. However, it was his late Interception that proved costly with the Bengals driving deep into Baltimore territory and when already holding a 3 point lead.

He would love to have that back, but Burrow could pick up from where he left off against this Ravens Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It will be down to the Quarter Back considering the issues the Bengals have in establishing the run and the Ravens Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball.

Having a returning Tee Higgins would help, while it feels very important to have Orlando Brown Jr back at Left Tackle- out of the two, Brown Jr is perhaps more likely to suit up and that will be important to try and keep the pocket clean for their Quarter Back, especially if he does not have his full complement of Receiving options.

You still have to believe Joe Burrow will make some big plays, but the pressure will be on without a running game and with Ja'Marr Chase perhaps having a few more eyes focused on him without Tee Higgins.

Facing a relentless Baltimore team, the pressure could force Burrow into an errant throw, and that may end up turning the game in favour of the hosts.

Lamar Jackson has dominated this Divisional rival and there is every chance the Ravens have a big enough lead to avoid the backdoor cover when all is said and done on Thursday Night Football.

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants Pick: Both teams look certain to miss the Playoffs again and there are likely going to be big changes at the end of this season for the New York Giants (2-7). A bit more patience may be needed with the Carolina Panthers (2-7), who won in Week 9 to at least give themselves a boost as the two teams head to Munich for the last NFL game to be played on European soil until 2025.

With both teams sharing the same record, some will feel it is a real surprise to have the New York Giants down as a big favourite, but there is a reason that is the case.

The Giants have lost four in a row, but those have been against the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders. Only the Bengals have a losing record right now of those four teams, but there is every chance they will rally to become a Playoff team, while the other three teams all look on course to reach the post-season.

Keeping that in mind, it does mean the Giants have perhaps been a victim of the schedule as much as their own poor Offensive play and this is a big opportunity for Daniel Jones against a much weaker Defensive unit than he has face for a while.

Losing Saquon Barkley in the off-season looks a worse decision when seeing what he is doing with NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Giants Offensive Line have still been able to open up some solid running lanes. Tyrone Tracy Jr has benefited and he should be able to put up some decent numbers on the ground in this one, while Daniel Jones is also capable of moving the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position.

It should mean the Giants are playing out of third and manageable spots on the field, while this may be a rare game in which the New York Offensive Line is able to give Daniel Jones some time in the pocket. Running the ball has not been a problem, but the pass protection has not played up to the same level, although in this game in Munich they are facing a Panthers team that have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back with any consistency.

Daniel Jones will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if he and Tracy Jr can pound the rock on the ground, and the Quarter Back does have some Receivers who can create space against this Carolina Secondary.

Covering a big number like this one is about scoring points, which has been an issue for the Giants, but they may feel that they can protect those points that they are able to produce on the scoreboard. The New York Defensive unit has played much better than the other side of the ball and they will feel they match up pretty well with this Carolina Offensive unit that has Bryce Young starting at Quarter Back.

It has been possible to run the ball against the New York Giants, but it may not be as easy for a banged up Carolina Offensive Line to create the holes that others have been able to do. Chuba Hubbard looked in good form in the Week 9 win over the New Orleans Saints to snap out of something of a funk, although the game plan for the Giants may be to play up closer to the Line of Scrimmage and see if Bryce Young can beat them through the air.

The Giants Secondary have actually played pretty well so they will be confident, especially with the Panthers short in the Receiving corps. There is still an inconsistency about Bryce Young, while the Giants have a pass rush that could have the Quarter Back scrambling around for time in the pocket.

Throwing Interceptions continues to be an issue for Bryce Young and the feeling is that the New York Giants can make enough plays on this side of the ball to move into a position to win and cover. Backing bad teams to win games by comfortable margins is something that I have looked to avoid this season, but this is a spot where the New York Giants may just take advantage of a Panthers team that put in a lot to beat a Divisional rival in Week 9.

New York match up pretty well on both sides of the ball with what they are going to be facing and Daniel Jones can just ease the pressure and talk around his future by helping the Giants to a solid win in Germany before heading into their Bye Week.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: After two weeks and with 91 points scored, the New Orleans Saints (2-7) could not have imagined where they would be at the halfway mark of the 2024 season.

Seven straight injuries have ended with Head Coach Dennis Allen fired and the Saints have traded away Marshon Lattimore. Instead of thinking about the Playoffs, the New Orleans Saints might already be considering their Draft Position for next year as injuries have piled up throughout the roster.

Next up is the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) who have taken control of the NFC South.

This is what was expected from the Falcons after bringing in Kirk Cousins as the starting Quarter Back and five wins in six games have given the team a real lift. Winning in Week 10 would push the Falcons to 5-0 within the NFC South and it would mean they are also a considerable way to securing at least one home Playoff game in January.

It is never the best position to be siding with the public when they are pumping a road favourite as much as they are with the Falcons in Week 10, but there looks to be a considerable advantage for the road team who will enjoy playing under the Dome.

Derek Carr has returned at Quarter Back for the Saints, but he was not able to inspire a win at the Carolina Panthers and was heavily criticised for a pass that left Chris Olave out to dry. The concussion suffered by the young Receiver has ruled him out this game and New Orleans will have to lean on their Offensive Line to try and keep themselves in front of the chains.

This should be possible against the Falcons Defensive Line, while Derek Carr may be offered more protection than any New Orleans Quarter Back has been used to. One of the problems for the Falcons is having a Defensive unit that has struggled to make consistent stops, and that will need to be improved if they want to have a deep run in the post-season, but it is also going to be challenging for New Orleans with the injuries to keep things ticking over.

An interim Head Coach has inspired teams to big performances and there is no doubt that the Falcons are expecting that to happen.

However, the New Orleans Defensive unit has been hurt badly with injuries restricting their ability to make plays and you have to believe Kirk Cousins can expose the holes that have been evident.

The Falcons should find an easy balance on the Offensive side of the ball and it will be very tough for New Orleans to prevent the road team from moving up and down the field. Kirk Cousins can lean on the running game behind the Offensive Line, while there is a chance that Drake London will be back to just offer another Receiving threat for the Quarter Back to utilise.

When these teams met back in September, the Falcons were perhaps fortunate to come away with a win, but the teams have moved in vastly different directions since then. Despite the firing of their Head Coach and the expected reaction to that, the Saints made moves ahead of the trade deadline that may have all feeling that 2025 is already the focus and the Atlanta Falcons may just have too much scoring power for an injury hit New Orleans team to do with.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They are fortunate to be playing in the relatively weak looking NFC West and the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) will come out of their Bye Week with Christian McCaffrey ready to return. Injuries have perhaps restricted the 49ers and prevented them from building the momentum to really take control of the Division, and there is a slight concern at being 1-2 against NFC West opponents, but more is expected from San Francisco going forward.

Travelling across the country for a 1pm Eastern Time kick off is not ideal, especially with a Divisional rival next up, but the Bye should mean the 49ers are ready.

Add to that the fact they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) who have been seriously hurt by injuries to key players and who have lost three in a row.

Baker Mayfield is still playing pretty well at Quarter Back, but losing Chris Godwin for the season and having Mike Evans on the sidelines recovering from a hamstring issue is a real blow for the team. Despite that, Mayfield and the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points to at least remain competitive, although the Defensive unit have not been able to create the stops that may have turned momentum.

Earlier in the season the Buccaneers may have actually been able to establish the run with some consistency to help the Quarter Back, but that may not be as easy against a fresher San Francisco Defensive Line. They actually went into the Bye Week playing better at the Line of Scrimmage and there is a feeling that the 49ers can make sure they control things up front knowing there are backups playing for the Buccaneers in the Wide Receiver positions.

The Quarter Back has maintained some strong numbers and the Offensive plans have given the Buccaneers a chance, and that has to be respected here. The Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have been solid enough in pass protection to deserve plenty of respect too so there is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to at least put up enough points for Tampa Bay to believe they can win as the home underdog.

However, the question really is whether the Defensive unit can step up for the Buccaneers and that is perhaps asking a bit too much of the current team from what we have seen in recent games.

Even without the threat of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers Offensive Line have really been bullying teams up front and they are likely going to establish the run with a lot more consistency than their hosts. It has been a problem for the Buccaneers during their three game losing run, while the return of Christian McCaffrey also offers Brock Purdy another Receiving threat capable of picking up a lot of yards after the catch.

Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, although Brock Purdy could benefit from the like of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel having a Bye Week to just get through some of the injuries and illnesses that had been holding them back. With the main Running Back, the 49ers will be that much more dangerous and that should mean Brock Purdy can run the Offensive unit as he wants.

The 49ers Offensive Line have offered plenty of protection for Purdy, who is also going to get the ball out of his hands pretty quickly, and it should mean San Francisco are moving the ball efficiently.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the way the Buccaneers have continued to play through adversity, but the 49ers are fresh and this is a short week for Tampa Bay having put so much into an Overtime loss on Monday Night Football at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9.

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: They may feel there is plenty of room for improvement after the Week 9 win against the Indianapolis Colts, but it is much easier to deal with that after putting a victory together. Snapping a two game losing run will have the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) feeling better, although it does mean they are behind the Detroit Lions in what is a very competitive NFC North Division.

The focus has to be on their own performances and the Vikings will be looking to push their way into the Playoffs at the end of this season, either as a Divisional Champion or as a dangerous Wild Card team.

This looks a good chance to back up the win over one AFC South when facing another and that is because the hosts Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) are expected to go into Week 10 without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. To make matters even tougher, the Receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries and it is going to be a big challenge for backup CJ Beathard to help his team move the ball with any consistency.

Jacksonville might have lost their last two games, but they have been a lot more competitive since the embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears in London. However, doing the same without Trevor Lawrence is going to be very difficult and especially with this Minnesota Vikings team in front of a backup that may not always see what is coming.

If they could run the ball and take the pressure away from CJ Beathard, it would help, but that is not likely going to be the case for the Jaguars. Instead the Quarter Back could be forced to throw from third and long spots, while trying to work out where Brian Flores is sending the pressure from.

It is a bend, don't break kind of Secondary, but unlikely that CJ Beathard is going to have a lot of consistent success if the likes of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr are not able to go. Christian Kirk has been ruled out for the season and all in all, this looks like it could be a long day Offensively for a team that is struggling.

Playing out of a primetime spot and having a big Divisional game up next does make this an awkward spot for the Minnesota Vikings. However, Sam Darnold is looking to just round into more consistent form again at Quarter Back and he should be able to offer the Vikings plenty of balance on the Offensive side of the ball.

Aaron Jones has arrived from rivals Green Bay and has shown there is still plenty in the tank as far as the Running Back is concerned and he is playing behind a Minnesota Offensive Line which has been capable of opening up some strong lanes for him. This has really helped Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, although Darnold has admitted he needs to be a bit more careful with the ball as Interceptions have perhaps become too frequent for his and his Head Coach's liking.

Pressure around him has not helped, but Sam Darnold should have a cleaner pocket with the team operating in third and manageable, while the play-action will open up if the Vikings are running the ball as expected. There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that can be exploited, and Sam Darnold is fortunate to be playing with some big time Receivers and it should allow Minnesota to pull clear.

If Trevor Lawrence was going to suit up, the Jaguars would have the potential for a backdoor cover, but that is all the more difficult with CJ Beathard behind Center.

The schedule spot is far from ideal, but the Vikings can get the better of another AFC South team and earn another cover on their way to a seventh win of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It doesn't feel that long ago that the NFC East might have been considered the best Division in the NFL, but that is not the case in 2024.

Even then, it looks like on that could potentially be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs in the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2). Despite the noise coming down from the stands and some of the criticism in the media, Head Coach Nick Sirianni has guided the Eagles just behind the Commanders in the Division and with a big game coming up between the top two teams in the NFC East in Week 11.

It is a game to be played on Thursday Night Football so there is a slight concern that the Eagles could be looking past the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) who are going to be without Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.

A third loss in a row has dropped the Cowboys to a couple of games below 0.500 and Mike McCarthy has to be feeling his seat heating up day by day as the Head Coach. In reality Jerry Jones should be taking plenty of the 'credit' for the way this season has developed, but the axe will fall on the Head Coach who was perhaps fortunate to remain in charge ahead of the 2024 season.

Dak Prescott is out, but Cooper Rush will come in as backup with a 5-1 record as a starter in relief, although he is not going to be benefit from a lot of support around him. In previous outings, Rush might have leaned on the Dallas Offensive Line, but they have struggled to establish the run this season and the improving Philadelphia Defensive Line may be extra keen to clamp down up front and see if Cooper Rush can beat them through the air.

Another issue for the Offensive Line, which is banged up, is that they have not really offered much protection for Dak Prescott and that is unlikely to improve for their backup Quarter Back. The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush could cause massive problems for Rush every time he steps back to throw, especially when stuck in third and long spots, and that pressure up front has certainly allowed the Eagles Secondary to make some big plays.

The experience of Cooper Rush as a starter will at least help, but it looks a good opportunity for the Eagles to make enough big plays on this side of the ball to set things up for their Offensive unit to pull away for an impressive win.

Much like others have managed this season, the Eagles will look to the Offensive Line to just push Dallas around up front and a number of Running Backs have had big outings against the Cowboys already. His personal record against Dallas has been disappointing from his time with the New York Giants, but Saquon Barkley can finally get the better of the team as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Some may have thought Barkley was not worth bringing in, but he has been a key part of this Eagles Offensive unit and can have a very strong outing.

Last weekend the Head Coach would have been criticised for some of the bizarre play-calling for the Eagles when in fourth and inches, but his team still managed to win for a fourth time in a row. Saquon Barkley has just taken some of the pressure away from Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are also available, who also benefit from the running game being as productive as it has been.

The Cowboys have gotten some pressure up front and that pass rush could be boosted by a returning Micah Parsons, although they will need to find a way to contain Saquon Barkley to really have an opportunity to get after the Quarter Back.

With Kellen Moore at Offensive Co-Ordinator, there is going to be motivation from the Eagles to try and really and give the former Dallas Co-Ordinator a boost. That could mean attempting to run up the score here and Philadelphia could really get one over on their Divisional rival with a strong win on the road.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: If it was possible, the NFL may have seen this Monday Night Football flexed out of the spot, but it will be the Miami Dolphins (2-6) heading West to take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4).

It is the Rams who are entrenched in a Divisional battle with the NFC West congested, but the season for the Dolphins has been difficult to say the least. There is still a hope that things can turn around for Miami, who have already faced Buffalo twice, but they have lost a couple of close games since Tua Tagovailoa has been able to return at Quarter Back and need to start changing that narrative if they are going to work their way into the post-season.

At this point of the season, Miami's margin for error is almost down to zero with the expectation being fewer than nine wins will not be good enough.

They have looked better Offensively with their starting Quarter Back behind Center, and there is an expectation for Miami to maintain that push on this side of the ball. The Rams have won three in a row, which perhaps was a factor in keeping the core of the roster together through the trade deadline, but they are still a team that can give up some big plays.

During this winning run, the Rams Defensive Line have clamped down on the run, but that is not going to be as easy against a Miami team with big Offensive weapons. Mike McDaniel will always feel that the run can open up the big passing lanes down the field and he will not lose faith in what the Dolphins can do on the ground having seen some consistent performances from his Running Back and Offensive Line.

The Miami Offensive Line have offered some solid protection for their Quarter Back and this is going to be a key part of the game as they look to just ease the Los Angeles pass rush. Running the ball will help and Tua Tagovailoa can employ his Running Backs as catchers out of the backfield, which will just keep the Rams guessing and open up opportunities against this Secondary.

There is every chance that this will be an exciting primetime game considering the challenges that Miami will face when Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the ball.

Injuries have just cleared up for the Rams, which has really given Stafford the chance to lead his team forward, and the veteran Quarter Back will have his top Receivers on the field who are very capable of finding the spaces in the Secondary to exploit.

Running the ball might be more challenging for the Rams, even with Kyren Williams continuing to impress out of the backfield. However, Matthew Stafford is more than capable of leading the Rams forward and he, and his Receivers, can put the Rams into a position to win the game.

With a limited pass rush, Miami will give Matthew Stafford time in the pocket and that should mean both teams are capable of moving the ball and scoring points.

A shoot out would not be a surprise considering the issues in the Secondaries and the Offensive-minded Head Coaches prowling the sidelines and that is the lean for this Monday Night Football game. It is a big number, but the conditions should be comfortable for the Quarter Backs taking to the field and some quick strikes may be produced to help take the game over the line set.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams-Miami Dolphins Over 48.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 10 Picks 2019 (November 7-11)

After waiting what feels like forever for the 2019 NFL season to get underway it seems we have gotten into the second half of the regular season at the blink of an eye.

In this thread I want to have a quick look back at my Week 1 predictions for the season and see how much things have changed in the NFL from the pre-season feelings I had. I know I have gotten some Divisions completely wrong, but there have been some predictably good teams too.

Below I will have a few thoughts on my Predictions from back in Week 1 and also what I feel is going to happen going forward.


AFC East- one of the more predictable selections I made back in Week 1 was the New England Patriots winning the Division.

They look very much on course to do that, although the Buffalo Bills have been stronger than I imagined and should make the PlayOffs from here.

Without a doubt the biggest disappointments are the New York Jets who handed the Miami Dolphins their first win of the 2019 season in Week 9.


AFC North- about the only thing I got right in this Division is that the Cincinnati Bengals would be struggling mightily and they look on course for the Number 1 Pick in the 2020 Draft.

My top two selections in this Division were the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, but the struggles of Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield have hurt the former and the latter lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury for the season very early in the year.

At this moment it is Baltimore Ravens who look like they are going to go on and win the AFC North and their win over New England in Week 9 will have given the team plenty of confidence.


AFC South- my pick was Jacksonville Jaguars in this Division, but ultimately they have not really shown the consistency to kick on. Things might have been different if Nick Foles was not injured in Week 1 which has meant he has missed the last nine weeks, but the Jaguars are 2 games behind the Houston Texans in the South.

That does mean they still have a chance to turn things around before the regular season comes to a close, and the Division as competitive as I thought it might be at the start of the 2019 campaign.

I did say the Colts would be better than expected even in the wake of Andrew Luck's retirement, but they have been stronger than I could have imagined. The Houston Texans are fortunate to have a star like Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and the Tennessee Titans play tough no matter who they face any given Sunday.

There is a big game coming up between the Colts and Texans which may decide the outcome of this Division, but both teams may also feel they can put enough wins together to at least earn a Wild Card spot too. The Jaguars could be the dark horse if Foles comes back in Week 11 and can find the magic that he used to take the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl success.

Overall the Division looks as difficult to call now as it was before Week 1.


AFC West- the Kansas City Chiefs were my choice to win the West and nothing has happened so far this season to move away from that.

Patrick Mahomes looks to have avoided a big injury and he should return either in Week 10 or Week 11 and guide the Chiefs to the Division title.

The big disappointment have to be the Los Angeles Chargers who continue to play sixteen road games with fans yet to really show their love for the second team to arrive in Los Angeles. The Wild Card spot is still potentially open to them, but I do think the Chargers will need to go 6-1 in their last seven games to have a chance and there will be some big questions to answer in the off-season.

Denver have been poor, but the Oakland Raiders have surprised and at 4-4 they are primed for a strong ending which may take them into the Wild Card spots in Jon Gruden's second season as Head Coach. The game in Week 10 against the Chargers looks pivotal to both team's seasons.


NFC East- back in September I said the NFC East would come down to a straight battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles and both teams are leading the way as expected.

However I did think both could earn Wild Card spots, but that is looking increasingly unlikely barring both having at least six more wins to reach 11-5 at a minimum. The Week 16 game between the Eagles and Cowboys looks like deciding the Division.

The New York Giants did move to Daniel Jones at Quarter Back fairly quickly in the season once it became clear that Eli Manning's time was over. They will be stronger for this next season, while the Washington Redskins continue to be run as poorly as they have been for a decade.


NFC North- I thought the Green Bay Packers would bounce back and earn a Wild Card spot this season and they look firmly on course to do that out of the tough NFC North.

They are currently fighting it out for the Division title with the Minnesota Vikings, but both of those teams will believe they can earn a Wild Card spot at the worst.

I mentioned the Vikings would challenge, but I also felt the Chicago Bears would slip. However I meant in terms of the record, not in general, and picking them as the likely NFC North Champions looks like it has gone extremely wrong.

Mitchell Trubisky has struggled and the Bears have some big questions to answer in the off-season about the Quarter Back and the Head Coach.


NFC South- I picked the New Orleans Saints to come out of the NFC South as Division winners and they are 2 games clear of the Carolina Panthers going into Week 10.

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have been more disappointing than I would have imagined, while I figured the Carolina Panthers could at least push the Saints.

However I did say they would need Cam Newton to be healthy- instead Newton has only played two games in 2019 and the Panthers have pushed forward with Kyle Allen.

The New Orleans Saints should win the Division from here, but the Panthers have some big games which will determine whether they can push for a Wild Card spot. The first of those comes this week against the Green Bay Packers.


NFC West- easily my worst prediction of the pre-season was thinking the San Francisco 49ers Defensive unit was a question mark for the team.

Instead the Defense has been the foundation from which the 49ers have built their successes as the only unbeaten team in the NFL going into Week 10.

Even then they are only 2 games ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and 3 games ahead of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West in a Division race which could go right down to the wire. I thought the Rams were the best team in the West, but Offensive Line problems have hurt them and they might be the odd one out in the Division and the Wild Card race.

Seattle have been reliant on Russell Wilson, but the Quarter Back has taken the challenge on board and led the team to a 7-2 record.

At this time the 49ers will be hard to peg back, especially if they beat Seattle on Monday Night Football, but I would not be surprised to see at least one Wild Card team coming out of this Division whether that is the Seahawks or the Rams.


My Super Bowl Pick back in September was the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams will have their chances of making the PlayOffs, but the New England Patriots look the team to beat in the AFC while the Baltimore Ravens might match up pretty well with the Chiefs too.

In the NFC I have the New Orleans Saints as the best team in the Conference, while the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and maybe even the Dallas Cowboys look stronger than the Eagles.

My Top Five

1) New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees is back and the Defensive unit have shown how good they can be when they were helping Teddy Bridgewater win games without the starting Quarter Back.

2) San Francisco 49ers- the only unbeaten team in the NFL. If Jimmy Garoppolo is able to produce the same standards as he had against Arizona on a consistent basis this could be a team very tough to knock off.

3) New England Patriots- every time the New England Patriots have won the Super Bowl there has been a moment in the season where fans question them off the back of a poor performance. The Week 9 blow out defeat to the Baltimore Ravens will have hurt, but the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC in my opinion.

4) Kansas City Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes is soon to return at Quarter Back, but the improved Defensive performances without him will be encouraging. They only need that unit to make a couple of big plays to set the team up for a strong Super Bowl run.

5) Green Bay Packers- they laid an egg in Week 9, but the Green Bay Packers are still leading the NFC North. Sometimes a loss can be a good thing for the long-term successes of a team and that is my feeling about the Packers.

My Bottom Five

32) Cincinnati Bengals- they are the only winless team left in the NFL and the Bengals have decided to bench Andy Dalton and see what they have in Ryan Finley at Quarter Back.

31) New York Jets- the trade rumours surrounding Le'Veon Bell and Jamal Adams would have upset the locker room. Losing to the Miami Dolphins shows where the Jets are right now.

30) Miami Dolphins- the first win of the season has seen the Miami Dolphins chances of finishing with the Number 1 Pick in the 2020 Draft take a big hit.

29) Washington Redskins- this team is as badly run as the Cincinnati Bengals. Instead of trading away big name players for Draft capital, the Redskins just continue to do the same things which have left them well short of the top teams in the NFL.

28) Atlanta Falcons- there were only two surprises in Atlanta's Week 9 Bye Week... One is that they avoided a loss, the second is that Dan Quinn has somehow kept his job as Head Coach. Matt Ryan is back from an injury, but I don't think that makes a big difference for the Falcons chances going forward.

Week 10 Picks

I have had some frustrating weeks during the 2019 NFL season and there was some more of the same in Week 9 despite the winning record.

This has been a disappointing season for the NFL Picks in general and I am looking for much better over the last eight weeks of the regular season and build some momentum before the PlayOffs begin in early January 2020.

The Week 10 Picks will be added to this thread, although I do not have a selection from the Thursday Night Football game this week.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: This is the first of two meetings between these two NFC North Divisional rivals that are going to be played in November, but both the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions have been suffering through disappointing seasons. Out of the two teams there is no doubt that the Bears have been a real letdown as far as their fans are concerned and the team that won the NFC North last season are at 3-5 and almost certainly going to miss the PlayOffs.

The fans are already pretty upset and things could really sour for both Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Nagy on Sunday if the Bears are downed by the Lions. The Bears have lost four games in a row to leave only memories of the 3-1 start to the 2019 season, but the Detroit Lions are not having much more success as they have lost four of their last five games to fall to 3-5-1 for the season themselves.

Something is going to have to give on Sunday in Week 10 because the Bears have been horrible Offensively and the Lions have been very poor Defensively. Those two units will face one another while the teams will believe their strengths are going up against each other on the other side of the ball.

Matthew Stafford has been playing well at Quarter Back and he has some talented Receivers which are aiding him from a statistical point of view rather than in terms of a result. The Quarter Back won't be pleased by his own performances if they are not resulting in a win, but I do think Stafford can have some success in this one against a Bears Defensive unit that have not been playing at the level they were producing in 2018.

It won't help that Stafford won't have much of a running game to lean on and he won't want to be in third and long spots against a Bears team that can still put together a pass rush that will be able to rattle the Quarter Back. That is the best way for the Bears to try and stall some drives and at least give their team a chance of getting back to winning ways and perhaps relieve some of the pressure that their own Quarter Back and Head Coach are beginning to feel.

I am not convinced Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Nagy are on the same page anyway, but they have to join together and help Chicago get back on the right track even at this stage of the season. All of the Offensive problems begin with a lack of a serious running game as Chicago have failed to match the production of last season, but there is a chance for the Bears to get on track agains the Detroit Defensive Line which is weaker than most.

Mitchell Trubisky has to be urged to at least make some moves on the ground too, but I would also want to set him up with some easy passing to try and rebuild a confidence that has to be at a very low point. There are already suggestions that the Bears are going to be moving on from a Quarter Back they selected high in the Draft in 2017 and ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson and for many fans it is a case of what might have been with the Bears lacking a Quarter Back at a time when everything else looks to be in place.

He has looked very short of confidence with some terrible throws being part of the problem rather than the play-calling. This is a game in which Trubisky has to show better considering how banged up the Lions are Defensively and he does have the likes of Allen Robinson who can make plays for him from Receiver.

The public are finding it hard to believe in the Bears and the Detroit Lions have become a seriously backed underdog without this spread being moved. I have to agree with those who are clearly backing the under-fire Bears here and I do think they can cover despite the poor run of form.

It is like people have forgotten how badly Detroit have been playing and the Bears are still the superior team even with Mitchell Trubisky showing himself to perhaps not be the franchise Quarter Back the Bears thought they were Drafting. The favourite is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four in this Divisional series and the Bears are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five at home against the Lions.

Chicago can make enough plays through their Defensive unit to at least get into a position to win this game and I hate to say I am trusting Mitchell Trubisky to have one of his better games of the season.


Los Angeles Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: For most teams losing their star Quarter Back at the very start of a season in which the star Wide Receiver and one of the best Running Backs in the NFL had departed the team would have been a death knell for the campaign. At 1-4 following an Overtime loss to rivals Baltimore Ravens that seemed to be where the Pittsburgh Steelers 2019 year was heading, but they have turned things around with three wins in a row and could be challenging for a Wild Card spot if not the AFC North Divisional title in the weeks ahead.

They can't afford to drop any momentum as we hit Week 10 and Pittsburgh don't have a lot of room for error considering they already have four losses on the season. Their opponent in Week 10 might not play in the same Conference, but this is a huge game for the Los Angeles Rams too who are playing in the loaded NFC West where they trail both the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.

Coming out of their Bye Week at 5-3 would be a decent enough position for most teams, but the Rams will understand their situation. Even a Wild Card battle looks like it will go down to the wire in this Conference with some very good teams scattered throughout the four Divisions and it does mean both teams have a lot on the line in this one.

It will be interesting to see what Sean McVay has been working on during the Bye Week as he looks to put his team in a position to win a tough road game this week. The Rams have not been as eye-catching Offensively as they were in 2018 and some of the problems have begun up front where the Rams have struggled to run the ball with any kind of consistency.

Todd Gurley has shown flashes of the obvious talent he has, but he has not been consistent like the other top Running Backs in the NFL and that has been part of the reason the Los Angeles Rams have struggled to impose the run on teams. It hasn't been all about Gurley though with the Offensive Line having issues opening holes too and now they have to face the Pittsburgh Defensive Line which is performing to the standards this team have come to expect.

There have been improvements in the Secondary which is going to be important for the Steelers this week, while the Defensive Line have also produced a massive pass rush. That might not be the best news for Jared Goff who can struggle when he feels the pressure of the pass rush around him and much is going to be determined by how much protection he gets from his Offensive Line.

Even if Goff is given a lot of time, which I doubt without the Rams running the ball better than they have in 2019, I do think the Steelers have doubled down on their Defensive effort and that is where they have been able to turn their season around. This Los Angeles team were given rave reviews for the Offensive output in the first half of the 2018 season, but they have not been as strong this season as teams have begun to have a better read of what they are seeing and the Steelers should have success in at least stalling some drives.

At the end of the day the game will likely be decided by Mason Rudolph who has been a little erratic in relief of Ben Roethlisberger. That has made the Steelers a little one-dimensional in what they are trying to do Offensively, although teams have had a few issues in slowing them down with the Offensive Line setting the tone for the rest of the team.

They have been able to open some big holes for James Connor and Benny Snell, but both Running Backs are missing again this week which means the Steelers will have to be a little creative with their Offensive play-calling. It won't be a case of just handing the ball off and controlling the clock and field position because the Rams Defensive Line have proven to be very strong with Aaron Donald leading the way in helping hold teams to 3.1 yards per carry.

There has to be a way to get JuJu Smith-Schuster better involved in the Offense, although we are not likely to see that this week with Jalen Ramsey shadowing him. Instead Mason Rudolph is gong to have to find other options to keep the chains moving even though he has not really looked like a long-term solution to Roethlisberger at Quarter Back.

It is some week when you are backing both Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph, but I do like the Steelers here with the start as the home underdog. The Steelers have played well against teams with winning records and they have gone 12-1 against the spread in their last thirteen games as the underdog against a team with a winning record too.

I have to respect how well the Rams have played coming out of a Bye Week under Sean McVay and you would worry if they are able to score points very quickly and force Pittsburgh to change their entire Offensive approach. However the Rams have had their issues with teams who can play Defense as well as the Steelers have shown they can and I expect that will give the home team a chance to keep this one competitive.


Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Two teams with winning records in the NFC will be looking to earn a big win in Week 10 which could have tie-breaking repercussions in the race for the PlayOffs. The Green Bay Packers remain on top of the NFC North at 7-2 and will still have ambitions of a Bye in the Wild Card Round of the post-season, but they need to bounce back from an embarrassing performance when losing in Los Angeles to the Chargers in Week 9.

They remained a game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings who were beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Packers have insisted the focus of this week is to bounce back and show their true colours this week.

The visitors to Green Bay are the Carolina Panthers who have won five of their last six games to move to 5-3 and all without Cam Newton. The long-term Quarter Back for the Panthers might have played his last snap for this team having been placed on the Injured Reserve list for the remainder of the season and with suggestions the Panthers will be looking to move on at the end of 2019.

Cam Newton will be worrying about getting healthy and so far Kyle Allen has shown he is able to manage the Offensive system to give his team the chance to win. No one will be confusing Allen with a top starting Quarter Back and I would not be surprised if he is not the long-term plan in Carolina even if they move on from Newton, but Allen has done enough to keep his job and continue doing what he has been.

The main focus has been leaning on Christian McCaffrey and teams have struggled to slow down the all-purpose Running Back even though he is clearly the biggest threat on the team. He might not be the biggest or the most physical, but McCaffrey has shown himself to be incredibly tough and the Panthers have continued churning out big gains on the ground which is going to be the game plan considering how much Green Bay have had problems in slowing down ground attacks.

This has been a season long struggle for Green Bay who have allowed 4.7 yards per carry over the course of 2019. Anyone who has played Madden before will know the best game plan for Carolina will be feeding McCaffrey as much as possible and try and slow down the pass rush before using Kyle Allen in play-action to hit the Packers down the field.

There have been one or two holes in the Green Bay Secondary which have been attacked by Quarter Backs, but the pass rush is a strength for the Packers and the Carolina Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection. If they have penalties or are forced into third and long situations it is going to be very difficult for Carolina to convert with the Smith pass rush of Preston and Za'Darius both capable of getting into the backfield and causing havoc.

Carolina have shown an improvement Defensively themselves with some major plays being made to turn the momentum within games. However it can't be ignored that they have been out-gained in terms of yardage in four straight games and that is only partly down to the Offensive struggles.

We have seen teams being able to establish the run against the Panthers Defensive Line and I do think the Packers will be looking to get back to basics Offensively after they did have their problems in Week 9. Aaron Rodgers is a top Quarter Back, but the play-calling should call for more runs for Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams and they should have one of their better outings despite the issues Green Bay have had establishing the run.

Establishing the run is going to be an important part of the day for Green Bay because the Offensive Line is not protecting Rodgers as they would like and the Carolina pass rush has been living in the opponent's backfield. Getting in the face of the Quarter Back can lead to mistakes being made and the Packers have to be aware that they don't really want to get behind the chains in this one if they are going to return to winning ways.

Any time you have someone like Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back it can be easy to fall in love with throwing the ball around, but Matt LaFleur has to show his power as the Head Coach. If he can get the ball moving on the ground to open things up for Rodgers then I do feel the Green Bay Packers will have too much for Carolina and they can not only win, but also cover the spread too.

Carolina do have a good record in recent runnings of this series, but they are perhaps overachieving in recent weeks and not playing as well as the results may suggest. They are also facing Aaron Rodgers off a loss which is a position in which the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back has thrived, while the Packers have been strong at home all season.

The Packers should put it all on the line to head into their Bye Week with a 8-2 record and control of the NFC North and I think they win this one by a Touchdown at least.


Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This is the kind of Sunday Night Football game you can really get behind as two teams with winning records meet with the game potentially being all important when it comes to deciding Wild Card places later in the year. The Minnesota Vikings were dropped to 6-3 in Week 9 as they blew the chance to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs missing Patrick Mahomes, while the Dallas Cowboys continued their dominance of their NFC East rivals by beating the New York Giants on Monday Night Football to move to 5-3.

That has left the Cowboys half a game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles, but they can make it a full game with a win on Sunday while the Eagles are on a Bye Week. It was good Dallas in action in Week 9 as they comfortably beat the Giants on the road, but this is a team that has been the only one to fail to beat the New York Jets and they have find better consistency if they are going to return to the PlayOffs.

Consistency will be key in case the NFC East battle goes down to the wire as it will mean remaining in contention for a Wild Card place at the least and this feels like a big game with that in mind.

It is going to be a smash-mouth kind of Football game and I do have to say I enjoy seeing teams wanting to punch each other in the face before dominating on the field. This is going to involve a lot of rushing attempts on both sides of the field and no one will be surprised to hear that in a game that has both Ezekiel Elliot and Dalvin Cook playing.

Elliot has been getting better week after week for the Cowboys and the Offensive Line looks to be getting healthier too which is music to the ears of the Running Back. In recent games Minnesota's Defensive Line have struggled to contain the run with some huge yards being churned out by opponents to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry in their last three games and Elliot is capable of picking up where those teams have left off.

The whole philosophy of the Cowboys is to run the ball and open things up down the field for the likes of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup and I do think they are going to be successful here. Having Elliot establish the run should mean the team are in front of the chains and so the Vikings pass rush could be blunted somewhat, while the Minnesota Secondary is not playing to the standards that Mike Zimmer would have set for this team and I like the Cowboys moving the chains with success in this game.

Any team that has Dalvin Cook will feel they can match the production Elliot has for the Cowboys, but I am not so convinced about what the Vikings will be able to do with the ball. I am anticipating some quality runs from Cook, but I am not sure it will be with the same consistency I am expecting from the home team because the Dallas Defensive Line have stepped up their play.

They are restricting teams to 4.2 yards per carry for the season, but the Cowboys have been stronger in the last three games with just 90 yards per game allowed on the ground. They had a good job containing Saquon Barkley for the most part and I do think Cook might have a slightly more effective game when he is catching the ball coming out of the backfield.

I think the Vikings will need that just to make sure Kirk Cousins is not overthinking things as he can tend to do in these Prime Time games. For too long the narrative is that Cousins will blow up on national television and he has to show that is behind him, but Adam Thielen is expected to miss out and the Cowboys Secondary is under-rated as they are ably supported by a very good Dallas pass rush.

Kirk Cousins could make some solid plays, but I think there may be quite a few short passes to try and open things up for the run and I really like Dallas being able to control the clock and eventually pull away for the win.

I have to respect the record Mike Zimmer has in games after a loss, while he will be firing his team up as the underdog. However Minnesota are 3-12 against the spread in their last fifteen games playing against a team with a winning record, which underlines the point about Cousins perhaps not stepping up his game as he should be.

Dallas being on a short week is a bit of a concern too, but the favourite is 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven in this series and I like the Cowboys to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)