US Open Tennis Day 14 Pick - Men's Final 2024 (Sunday 8th September)

It has been a tough end to the tournament, but the bulk of the US Open went well enough to mean another Grand Slam with a winning record.

Overall it has been a tough year right from the off for the Tennis Picks after a miserable run at the Australian Open, but there are still a couple more tournaments to come at the end of the season before looking for a much stronger 2025.

Aryna Sabalenka was deservedly the US Open Champion and holds two of the four Grand Slams so many will feel she is the player to beat when it comes to all but the clay courts moving into the new season. She missed Wimbledon this year, else Sabalenka would likely be much closer to Iga Swiatek in the World Rankings with 2000 points separating them.

However, the WTA Race is much closer and there is every chance Aryna Sabalenka can close the year as the official World Number 1 if she can maintain her focus on the rest of the calendar year.

A first time US Open Men's Champion will also be crowned at the end of the tournament and the World Number 1 is looking to match Sabalenka by adding the title in New York City to the one won in Melbourne to kick off 2024.

Jannik Sinner has overcome controversy and continued shady comments from his peers, but this is a big opportunity for Taylor Fritz to take the next step in his career and the hope is that we see a competitive Final on Sunday afternoon.

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz over 38.5 games: American fans have been used to home players performing well at the US Open when it comes to the women's tournament, but it has been a long time since the fans arrived at the last day of this Grand Slam with a home player to support.

The last time any American men's player reached the Final of the US Open was all the way back in 2006 when Andy Roddick made it that far, while the search for a home winner of this tournament has now surpassed twenty years. It is Roddick again who holds that last American US Open Winner tag as far as the men go, but that may all change this weekend when Taylor Fritz enters the Arthur Ashe Stadium.

He deservedly got the better of compatriot Frances Tiafoe in the Semi Final on Friday and the five sets played should not have sapped too much energy. The match was played into a fourth hour, but it was not a taxing one and Taylor Fritz is serving well enough to believe he can win the US Open this year.

Standing in his way is the World Number 1 Jannik Sinner who has overcome some off court controversy to work his way into the Final.

A solid win over Jack Draper in the Semi Final will have given Sinner a boost, although the one concern has to be the wrist issue that needed some attention during the match. He cannot afford to be struggling against an opponent who is playing as well as Taylor Fritz is and especially not with the lion's share of the crowd support also likely to be against the Italian.

This is something that will bother Jannik Sinner a lot less than his wrist and the World Number 1 has also found his serving form, which is a key part of any success a player is going to have on the faster surfaces. Without a doubt Sinner will feel he is the more effective return player of the two on the hard courts, which gives the favourite a real edge, but the feeling is that Taylor Fritz will make this very competitive.

Jannik Sinner's Semi Final win was competitive through the first two sets, but Fritz can certainly play the big points a little better than Jack Draper and that may see him at least earn a split of those sets. The British player had his chances in the Semi Final, and Taylor Fritz is a bit more experienced to just knuckle down when those big moments arrive.

Ultimately you have to believe Jannik Sinner will edge the contest, but Taylor Fritz is perhaps being a touch under-rated with the prices and the spread on offer. The American is going to be able to use the crowd support to just propel his tennis and the serving has been strong enough throughout this fortnight to believe Taylor Fritz can win at least a set even in a losing effort.

The total games line looks just appealing enough to be the better play than backing the underdog with a start and the two players can help combine for a memorable US Open Final as the Grand Slam season comes to a close in 2024.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-20, + 4.24 Units (92 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th September-Monday 9th September)

2023 was a strong season for the NFL Picks which concluded with being on the right side of the Super Bowl winner, which is always very welcome.

The 2024 season seems to have rolled around very quickly, but it is a situation where my longer thread with season predictions will have to wait until Week 2.

However, the Week 1 Picks will be placed in this thread and the one thing I do know is that it is likely to be another season where surprising teams come to the fore and contenders will fall by the wayside. There are some very strong Divisions from 1-4, while others are expected to be dominated by a leading team and the rest to follow.

All we can ask for is a positive Week 1 return to get this season going and ultimately to try and match the solid numbers produced last season.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The 2023 season ended very disappointingly for the Baltimore Ravens having played so well to earn the top Seed in the AFC.

They were beaten in the AFC Championship Game, despite being a strong home favourite, and the Ravens are given an immediate opportunity in 2024 to show that they are ready to bounce back from the disappointment.

Losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might have stung even more when two weeks later the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. This time it is the Ravens who will be looking to spoil the mood when they head out on the road to face the Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2024 season and their motivation will be easy.

Things have changed in Baltimore and the Ravens will be looking for a new Offensive Line to gel very quickly in order to give Lamar Jackson a chance to survey the field when he steps back to throw the ball. The dual-threat of the Quarter Back will also be important, but again it is up to the new Line to come together very quickly as the Ravens will be looking to use the run to open the passing game.

It will still be baffling for Baltimore fans that their team only ran the ball eight times the traditional way in the AFC Championship Game, especially as it was a competitive game all things considered. This has long been the weakness of the Kansas City Defensive unit, but having a new Offensive Line may make it harder for the Ravens to get things going for Derrick Henry, while questions will be asked about how much Henry has left in the tank.

Being unable to run the ball with any consistency will make it tough for the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson will find throwing the ball against this Chiefs Secondary a challenge. That becomes all the greater if the Offensive Line are not able to keep a productive Chiefs pass rush from penetrating the backfield and it could be a tough day for Baltimore on this side of the ball.

The same could be said when the Kansas City Chiefs have the ball.

Patrick Mahomes may not have had the big personal season we have come to expect, but the Quarter Back was very strong in the post-season and the Kansas City Chiefs relied on strong Defensive play to earn another Super Bowl Championship.

This time the Chiefs have brought in some strong Receiving options for Patrick Mahomes and the moves made certainly should see the Quarter Back get back to producing the kind of numbers that have become the norm for him since taking over from Alex Smith. Rashee Rice is also considered a Wide Receiver who is going to come on leaps and bounds in his second year in the NFL, as long as he can steer clear of the off the field incidents which have been reported over the last several months, and Mahomes may have his best set of passing options for a couple of years.

Drops had been an issue for the Kansas City Chiefs, and that is the one concern, but the Receiving corps should be able to find space against this Baltimore Secondary.

This does put some pressure on the Ravens to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes and that is going to be a tough challenge for them against this Kansas City Offensive Line. If the Ravens cannot get to Mahomes, Kansas City should be able to open the season with a strong win and a cover of this line set.

Kansas City have won five of the last six games between these top AFC contenders, including in the Championship Game last season, and the Chiefs could be ready to make an early statement in the Week 1 opener. Lamar Jackson and company cannot be dismissed, especially as they are Coached by John Harbaugh who remains very strong when given time to prepare for an opponent, but Andy Reid is no slouch and the Chiefs are going to be wanting to show they are ready to become a three-peat World Champion.

Week 1 has come around very quickly and a lack of time, with the additional outside factors, means this is a much shorter thread than usual. You can see my Picks from the Week 1 games below with a longer thread to come in Week 2 as the season really begins to get going.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 4 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2023 (September 8th)

After the disruption on Arthur Ashe, security should be more vigilant for the men's Semi Finals compared with the women's Semi Finals played on Day 11 of the tournament.

An almost hour delay after just eleven games had been played in the eventual Coco Gauff win, the organisers were finally able to remove the last of the protestors who had managed to glue himself to the stand.

The American handled the occasion far better than Karolina Muchova as Coco Gauff reaches another major Final and this time she will be facing Aryna Sabalenka, who showed tremendous heart and character to recover from 6-0, 5-3 down to beat Madison Keys in a final set Super Tie-Breaker.

Both players will be preparing for the Saturday showcase Final, but the attention will first turn to the men with the two Semi Final matches scheduled to be played at Day 12 of the tournament.

Most will be anticipating a Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Final to round of the US Open, but Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev may have something to say about that.

Ben Shelton over 12.5 aces v Novak Djokovic: A nice clip resurfaced after the Quarter Final win over Frances Tiafoe in which Ben Shelton is speaking to Tiafoe and Christoper Eubanks and wanting to become such a force in tennis that no one would want to see him competing in the tournament.

It was an interesting ambition to target as a goal and Ben Shelton has the weapons that certainly suggest this young American star could be a future Grand Slam Champion in the making.

He reached the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this year and Ben Shelton has surpassed that effort with this Semi Final run at the US Open. However, both have been as surprising as each other considering the lack of solid runs produced in other hard court events, while Shelton had been in poor form in the build up to his home Grand Slam.

Confidence has to be coursing through his veins right now though and that makes this huge serving lefty a potential problem for Novak Djokovic, who is targeting a first title here in five years. Of course Novak Djokovic was missing from the tournament last year, but he has been beaten in the Fourth Round in both 2019 and 2020 (retirement mid-match and disqualification) before going down to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the Final in 2021.

Three of the twenty-three Grand Slam titles won by the Serb have been won in New York City and he is likely going to have to deal with a hot crowd and an excitable opponent. The returning in the win over Taylor Fritz will have given Novak Djokovic a boost, but the fact that Ben Shelton's is a left-handed delivery may take a bit more getting used to, especially as the American tends to follow that serve up with some big groundstrokes.

Staying with Novak Djokovic long enough to win this match looks unlikely, especially with Djokovic's dominance of American rivals in Grand Slam events. At some point you would think the Number 2 Seed's returning prowess will shine through and put Ben Shelton under pressure, although, again, you have to have a lot of respect for the way Shelton has handled playing top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

He is 2-4 in those matches and has held 88% of his service games, including pushing Carlos Alcaraz in Toronto last month.

Much will depend on the serve and Ben Shelton may be able to put a number of aces in this match- some of those could even be in games where Novak Djokovic is not so focused in getting balls back in play, while the lefty serve opens up some great angles, while the Ben Shelton speed is recognised.

Novak Djokovic has returned well in the tournament, but his serving was not at its best in the Quarter Final win over Taylor Fritz as he offered up some routes back into the match in the third set. Eventually he prevailed in straight sets, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will push him a little more and might be able to serve well enough to keep this competitive on the scoreboard.

It would be a huge upset if Ben Shelton was to reach the Final, but he may end up being proud of a huge effort to push the dominant Djokovic for long enough to set the American up for bigger things to come in 2024.

Covering this ace total will not be easy considering how well Novak Djokovic returns, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will likely take risks on his second serve as well as his first delivery. Borna Gojo managed to ace Djokovic fourteen times in the Fourth Round and you have to believe that this Shelton serve can at least match that total, even more so when you consider it is coming from the southpaw stance that naturally can open the ace avenues up that much more.

With the pace that Ben Shelton is finding on the court, he can certainly hit at least thirteen aces even in a straight sets loss.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: While most tennis fans will see Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz as the top two players on the Tour by some distance (and most likely US Open Finalists on Sunday), perhaps more respect needs to be given to Daniil Medvedev.

He is a former Grand Slam Champion and is clearly the World Number 3 right now having worked his way through to another Semi Final at the US Open. Before the tournament began, Medvedev did state that he felt the top two players have pulled clear, but he was also pretty honest in suggesting that he is someway past the current World Number 4 and we have seen evidence of that through the course of the 2023 season.

Unfortunately for Daniil Medvedev, he is facing the top Seed and defending US Open Champion in this Semi Final and it is very difficult to imagine the match being vastly different than when they met in the Wimbledon Semi Final. On that day Carlos Alcaraz was able to win in straight sets and without really being pushed, while those who think Medvedev is a different prospect on the hard courts compared with the grass have to also accept that the Spaniard was not exactly massively experienced in SW19 before winning the title in July.

This time the match is played on the hard courts on which Carlos Alcaraz has thrived with his consistent best Grand Slam results being at the US Open. It is from a very young career that the statement can be made, but Alcaraz will be just as happy as being back on the hard courts as Daniil Medvedev and he did have the stronger results in the Masters events prior to the US Open beginning.

You have to believe the match that Daniil Medvedev played in the heat of the day on Wednesday is going to be a factor too, even if he finished a few hours before Carlos Alcaraz took to the court. Winning in straight sets was absolutely vital to the World Number 3, but it was played in awfully tough conditions and there is not a lot of time to get himself ready for this Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev returned well in the win over Andrey Rublev, but did not serve nearly as effectively as he would have hoped and will have to be improved in that regard. His return position is going to be interesting having lost both matches to Carlos Alcaraz this season with the Spaniard employing serve-volley tactics and getting to the net against someone who has become known for standing several feet behind the baseline on the return and in play.

Getting closer to the baseline may make the return a little less effective, but Daniil Medvedev will need to change his approach after losing all five sets played against Alcaraz this season. Two of those were lost on the hard courts of Indian Wells as Carlos Alcaraz picked up another big title, while Medvedev has won just fourteen games across those five sets.

The numbers from the two season meetings are not making good reading for Daniil Medvedev- he has only held 58% of service games played compared with Carlos Alcaraz and his 91% mark and that is a big difference that cannot be ignored.

We have yet to see the very best of the defending Champion in this tournament, but he should be fresh and Carlos Alcaraz has been steady throughout to say the least. On the other side, Daniil Medvedev has seen his numbers declining in each passing Round and the feeling is that there is still a big gap between the two players at their current levels, while any tactical changes might not be truly seen from the Russian until the 2024 season with more time to work on it.

Covering this number of games in a Semi Final is never easy, but Carlos Alcaraz might just have too much for Daniil Medvedev right now and he can find the breaks needed to pull clear and earn the right to defend his title on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 38-34, - 5.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 3.71% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2021 (September 8th)

The Semi Final line up will have already begun to take shape before Day 10 of the US Open, but the remaining Quarter Final matches will be played today.

There looks to be some big matches coming up in both the men's and women's tournaments that are going to be concluded this week and I do think both events still have an open feel to them.

Novak Djokovic is the favourite to complete the calendar Grand Slam, but both Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have been playing at an extremely high level and will be dangerous (I am writing this before any of the Quarter Final matches have been played).

The former of those two players has beaten Novak Djokovic in a big match already this summer and he looks to be on a collision course with the World Number 1 as both are set as big favourites to see off the competition in the Quarter Final.

It is Aryna Sabalenka who is favourite for the women's title at the US Open, but I could make a relatively strong case for all of the last eight left in the draw. Mental strength is going to be just as important as the tennis these players can produce with only one of the eight players left having won a Grand Slam title before and those tensions can see some upsets and strange results and performances being produced.

I am looking forward to the end of the tournament, the last really big event on the tennis calendar before the Tour Finals at the end of the season, and I do think we should see plenty more excitement before the trophies are raised this weekend.

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Neither of these players have dropped a set at the US Open, but the headlines are being made by the 18 year old British sensation Emma Raducanu who has reached the Quarter Final as a Qualifier. That alone would be something that would have gotten the media a little excited, but the manner of her wins in the Third and Fourth Round against experienced opponents has only cranked the hype machine into overdrive.

To be fair to Emma Raducanu, she deserves all the praise she has been given for the dominant wins over Sara Sorribes Tormo and Shelby Rogers. To lose just four games in four sets to those two competent hard court players has to be respected and the British player has to be playing with a confidence that is going to be very difficult to dent.

Even a nervy start against Shelby Rogers that saw Emma Raducanu 2-0 down was only the prelude to winning eleven straight games to take complete control of the match and this is a dangerous player. The serve is very effective, but the aggressive return means Raducanu is creating a host of break points and ultimately breaking through the defences of her opponents.

This match may be a little different if the Olympic Champion Belinda Bencic continues to perform at the level she has been beginning with the success in Tokyo. Her four wins at the US Open have been behind some exceptional serving and that is going to be key for the Swiss player who is a former Semi Finalist at the US Open and a player who will believe she is ready to win the biggest title of her career.

Belinda Bencic has been slightly more consistent when it comes to the serve throughout this tournament and that is a key for her- she won't want to allow Emma Raducanu to get her eye in considering how aggressive and impressive she has been on the returning side of things.

As good as Emma Raducanu has been and as much as the numbers are extremely eye-catching, I do have to say that Belinda Bencic has the 'stronger' wins in the tournament having beaten two players Ranked higher than the highest Ranked player the British player has beaten. The win over Iga Swiatek in the Fourth Round was a very good one for Belinda Bencic and I do think her experience may just see her over the line in this one, although Raducanu is going to be very difficult to contain throughout the match.

The feeling is that the youngster may have produced her best tennis of the tournament and this is a big step up from the players she has beaten, albeit with little fuss to suggest it is a step up Emma Raducanu can make. However, I think Belinda Bencic is extremely confident right now and I think her serve may be the more effective on the day which sees her narrowly edge past a player who is going to jump to a career high World Ranking and become a top player on the Tour for years to come.

Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: You want to get through matches at a Grand Slam as serenely as possible to make sure there is enough left to deal with the business end of the tournament and that is going to be a big question for Maria Sakkari to answer. She needed all but one minute of three and a half hours to beat Bianca Andreescu in the Fourth Round and it was a match that Maria Sakkari could have easily lost on another day.

Her three early wins in New York City have been fairly routine, but spending that amount of time on the court and now having to face another top player on the Tour is a big ask for the Greek player. I do think it is going to play a part in this one, while Maria Sakkari has perhaps been a little fortunate to move through a couple of matches here where her opponent has earned more break points than she has.

The win over Andreescu was a very close one and you do have to wonder if the former US Open Champion's body let her down in the final set when she had been leading. That isn't to say Maria Sakkari could not have turned things around anyway, but it certainly helped and she is going to have to produce a big serving day to get the better of Wimbledon Finalist Karolina Pliskova.

The Czech player has enjoyed a strong summer on the North American hard courts too and Karolina Pliskova has looked pretty good in the last two Rounds as she looks to peak over the coming days at this tournament. She has been steadier than Maria Sakkari in the tournament and has not matched the levels that her opponent reached when beating Petra Kvitova, but steady may be enough for Karolina Pliskova to reach another Grand Slam Semi Final.

Both players can be a little erratic when it comes to the return on the hard courts and we have seen signs of that in this tournament too, but that is where Karolina Pliskova's consistency behind her own serve may make the difference. She should be far less fatigued than Maria Sakkari too which should keep the arm relatively loose and I think that is going to be a major factor in the outcome of this Quarter Final.

The players have split two previous matches, but both have been played on the clay courts and the last of those was over two years ago.

Those should not be relevant to this match, but I do think the form has been with Karolina Pliskova and the long, long Fourth Round match that went deep into the New York City night might have hurt Maria Sakkari's chances of progressing to a second Semi Final at Grand Slam level in 2021 of her own. As long as Karolina Pliskova can bring her strong serving to the court, I think she will find the chances to break the Maria Sakkari serve and can overcome this handicap mark in the Quarter Final too.

Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Matteo Berrettini: The Wimbledon Final was played a little under two months ago and we are going to see a repeat of that when Novak Djokovic takes on Matteo Berrettini in the US Open Quarter Final. This will be the third Grand Slam in a row that these two top 10 Ranked players will be meeting one another and I think that says a lot about the consistency that both have been playing with throughout this calendar year.

No one will be surprised to read that about Novak Djokovic who is now three wins away from completing the calendar Grand Slam and perhaps cementing his place as the best tennis player of all time. The World Number 1 looks like he is going to be the favourite to win any tournament he enters, but some of the young guns on the Tour will be looking to make a statement through the remainder of this tournament.

Novak Djokovic has played well in New York City, but he has dropped a set in three of the four matches he has played and needed to rally from a really poor start when overcoming young American Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round. To be fair to Novak Djokovic, he was a comfortable winner by the end after dropping the first set 6-1, and the level he is producing is going to mean someone has to find an exceptional performance to prevent him winning this Grand Slam title.

A player like Matteo Berrettini is capable, but the Italian has struggled to stay with Novak Djokovic in all three previous matches. His consistency on the Tour has to be highly respected and Matteo Berrettini fully deserves his spot in the top 10 of the World Rankings, but he is just 1-5 in his matches against top 10 Ranked opponents this season and that is the next step he will be looking to take in his development as a player.

There is plenty of foundation to build upon though and the big server will feel that gives him a chance in any match he plays. However, Matteo Berrettini has only broken in 8% of return games played against top 10 Ranked opponents in 2021 and he wins less than 30% of return points played which makes it very difficult to beat those players.

In the three matches played against Novak Djokovic since November 2020, Matteo Berrettini has barely scraped over the 6% mark when it comes to breaks of serve and that is simply not going to cut it for him. The serve has been one that Novak Djokovic has broken down too and I think it would be a big upset for the top Seed to be beaten here despite the Ranking that his opponent holds.

With that in mind I am not surprised that the layers are asking Novak Djokovic to cover a big spread against Matteo Berrettini and it is a mark he is capable of overcoming. However, I do think Matteo Berrettini has been serving well enough to cause some problems for Novak Djokovic and it has to be noted that he has taken a set off of him at both the French Open and Wimbledon, even though he has largely been outplayed in both of those matches.

That may be the value in this Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic has dropped a set in three matches already in the tournament, but it shouldn't need more than four sets for the World Number 1 to move into another Slam Semi Final.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Lloyd Harris: There was some concern that Alexander Zverev may have injured himself in his warm up for his Fourth Round win over Jannik Sinner, but he looked relatively comfortable on the court during the match. With a day of rest between that match and the Quarter Final, I think Alexander Zverev will be good to go and I do think this is a very winnable match for him.

Take nothing away from Lloyd Harris who has made it his business to secure upset wins throughout the US Open as he reaches his maiden Quarter Final at this level. He has deserved his spot in the last eight and the South African is performing at a very good standard which means he deserves to be respected.

However, this is another step up from the players he has been beating of late and Lloyd Harris is going to have to play a near perfect match if he is going to get the better of a top 5 Ranked opponent. The serve has been an important shot for Lloyd Harris and it has helped him loosen up and play aggressively on the return with some good numbers against players like Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka not be ignored.

He is going to need that kind of returning against Alexander Zverev too who has been putting down very strong numbers on his serve and who has largely been untroubled. Jannik Sinner created seven break points against him in the Fourth Round, but the Italian was only able to force a single break of serve and Alexander Zverev continued his run of producing double digit break points in each match at the US Open.

The German has momentum behind him after a very successful summer and I do think he is going to have too much for Lloyd Harris with their previous matches suggesting that is likely to be the case.

Both have been won on hard courts by Alexander Zverev including in Cincinnati last month and both have bee relatively one-sided by the end. The meeting in Cincinnati saw Alexander Zverev dominate the serving numbers and eventually that saw Lloyd Harris crack in a 7-6, 6-2 defeat.

In those matches, Alexander Zverev has now held serve in 90% of the service games played compared with Lloyd Harris' mark of 70% and over a best of five set format I would expect the higher Ranked player to underline those figures. The Lloyd Harris serve has worked well in the last three Rounds, but none of those players are as strong as Alexander Zverev when it comes to the return and I do think the Olympic Champion can make relatively serene progress to the Semi Final and a potential rematch with Novak Djokovic.

This is a big mark if Lloyd Harris is serving at his ultimate best, but it is a new experience for the South African playing at this level and with greater expectations of him and one that many have struggled to deal with. If Alexander Zverev is feeling close to 100%, he should have too much all around tennis for Harris to deal with and can cover this handicap on his way through to the Semi Final at the US Open for a second year in a row.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 32-28, - 1.06 Units (120 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

US Open Day 9 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 8th)

We are down to the final few days of what has turned out to be the second Grand Slam of the season, but preparation is already beginning for the third Slam of 2020 at the French Open which begins later this month.

The authorities have decided they are going to allow just under 13,000 spectators into the grounds on a daily basis and that means some players have been having second thoughts about whether they are going to head to Paris. Serena Williams is one of the big names questioning her involvement, but the tournament has already lost Ashleigh Barty who is the defending Champion.

The Australian feels underprepared and not in a comfortable position to travel to Europe for the clay court events which have begun this week in Istanbul and Kitzbuhel with three weeks to go before Roland Garros gets underway.

You can't blame Barty and at the end of the day there are sure to be other players who feel they would be compromising their health by taking part in tournaments, especially as it feels like the 'bubble' in Europe nothing like the one the USTA have been using in New York City.


Before I really get into the clay court events leading up to the French Open we do have to finish off the week at the US Open and the Quarter Final matches in the top half of both the Men's and Women's draws.

The default suffered by Novak Djokovic has really opened up the Men's draw and you could make a case for a number of names, while this is an opportunity to pick up a Grand Slam which could spark a career. The Women's draw is also looking like one which could be won by any of the players still involved in the tournament and I am looking forward to the end of the event in New York City before the Tour shifts attention to the European clay courts.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: Both Alexander Zverev and Borna Coric have a lot of potential and have been tipped up as future Grand Slam Champions as they look to make the impact on the biggest stage for the first time. Neither player has really performed as they would have liked at Grand Slam level with this being Zverev's fourth Quarter Final and Coric's first.

Neither player has reached this stage at the US Open before so I do think there will be some nerves out there, although Alexander Zverev did reach the Semi Final of a Grand Slam for the first time back in January at the Australian Open. That run has to give the German confidence, while he has looked like a player improving in each passing Round and looking to peak towards the end of the tournament here at Flushing Meadows.

The draw has been kind to Zverev so far with the highest Ranked opponent he has beaten being Adrian Mannarino at Number 39 in the World. Even then you have to credit someone who has been serving well, but also picking up his level when it comes to the return which is key on this surface.

Alexander Zverev will know he has be a little better behind the serve as he takes on the highest Ranked player he will have faced at this tournament, but the confidence has to be in a good place. He has also not exerted too much effort through the first four Rounds as Zverev has tended to do at Grand Slam events in the past when making a deep run and that should also mean he comes into the match with some freshness about him.

He is likely going to need all of his stamina in a match against Borna Coric who produced his best performance in the Fourth Round having somehow escaped defeat in the Third Round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. On that day Coric saved six match points and he may feel there is a touch of destiny about his run at the US Open, although there has been plenty of time spent on the court already and the Croatian player has also needed some fortune to move through a couple of matches.

Before this run in New York City, Borna Coric has shown some vulnerability on the hard courts over the previous twelve months and I do think his serve is one that Alexander Zverev can get into.

Borna Coric does hold a 3-1 head to head lead over Alexander Zverev, which includes being 2-1 on the hard courts and a win over him in four sets at the US Open. However their most recent match on a hard court came in March 2018 and ended in a comfortable two set win for the tall German, while it is also Zverev who has created the majority of the break points in their last two matches on this surface.

I don't think it will be an easy match for Zverev, but I do think he has the better experience and has looked to be in better form through the tournament and over the last several months on a hard court. Stefanos Tsitsipas should have beaten Borna Coric in the Third Round, but I don't think Alexander Zverev lets him off the hook here and I will look for him to win the match in three or four sets and have the opportunities to cover a big mark.


Pablo Carreno Busta v Denis Shapovalov: The US Open and the rest of the Tennis world are still trying to digest the news about Novak Djokovic and his embarrassing defaulting from the tournament which saw him exit in the Fourth Round. The 17 time Grand Slam Champion and the World Number 1 was a clear favourite to win the tournament, but one poor decision has proven to be very costly and opened the rest of the draw up for the remaining eight players.

The one who arguably benefited the most is Pablo Carreno Busta who might have been about to serve for the first set, but was still a heavy underdog in their Fourth Round match two days ago. It will be interesting to see how the Spaniard has coped with the unbelievable way the match ended, but this is a player who has previously reached the Semi Final at the US Open and also been a Quarter Finalist at the French Open so experiencing the latter stage of a Slam should not be an issue for Pablo Carreno Busta.

He had been playing well in the previous two Rounds and while we can't read a lot into the last match, Pablo Carreno Busta has to be full of confidence ahead of this Quarter Final. Pablo Carreno Busta might have needed five sets go get through the First Round, but he looked very good in the next two matches and also holds a mental advantage over this opponent.

Denis Shapovalov comes into the match as the favourite and he reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2017 in his first appearance here. However, the Canadian has not been beyond the Third Round in any Grand Slam event since then and Shapovalov did not come into the US Open with the suggestion he was ready to make the second week of the tournament.

The return of serve had really been letting him down on the hard courts, but Shapovalov has largely looked better on that side of his game in this tournament. He also needed five sets to come through one match here, but Denis Shapovalov played well in the last Round and the win over David Goffin and will need that kind of level again to beat Pablo Carreno Busta.

It is the Spaniard who has a 3-1 head to head lead and that includes a straight sets win at the US Open in 2017. Surprisingly the one win for Denis Shapovalov came on the clay courts, but Pablo Carreno Busta has won all three previous hard court matches including both played in 2019.

Pablo Carreno Busta has been stronger behind serve in those hard court matches and I do think he may have a narrow edge in this one thanks to his ability on the return. It certainly makes Carreno Busta an interesting underdog and the slower night conditions can only aid him even though the one defeat to Shapovalov came on the clay courts.

I certainly do think the Spaniard has a better chance than the layers may believe and he looks to be worth backing here. He has a decent record against Denis Shapovalov and over the last twelve months there hasn't been that much between them on the hard courts. In fact you may be hard pressed to argue that Pablo Carreno Busta hasn't been the slightly better of the two players on this surface and I will look for him to edge to the win here.


Jennifer Brady - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: With six of the top ten in the Women's World Rankings missing the US Open there was always going to be an opportunity for one or two surprise names to make the business end of the tournament.

Not many would have picked Jennifer Brady versus Yulia Putintseva to be a US Open Quarter Final before the pandemic saw the suspension of the Tour, while there would have been some doubts about these two ahead of this tournament.

Jennifer Brady has not been beyond the Second Round at a Grand Slam since September 2017 when reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and she is playing in her first Grand Slam Quarter Final on Tuesday. That is going to bring some pressure, but over the last month Brady has won the title in Lexington behind some very strong form and she has looked to be playing with real confidence and belief throughout the first four matches here.

The American has been serving well, but the real eye-catching numbers is her dominance on the return and it is no surprise that Brady has not dropped more than five games in a single match in her run to the Quarter Final. She has played the big points well on her serve and Brady has created at least ten break points in three of the four matches while breaking serve at least three times in each match inside Flushing Meadows.

Going into the tournament Jennifer Brady had won 49% of return points played in the ten matches she completed before the US Open began. That is impressive and she is certainly going to feel she can hurt Yulia Putintseva who had lost early in the tournaments played under the Lexington and Cincinnati banners.

The Russian has not won more than 61% of service points played in any of her first four matches and her last two opponents have broken the Putintseva serve four times each time. However it is the Yulia Putintseva return which has helped her manage her way through to the Quarter Final, although she was very fortunate to beat Petra Martic in the Fourth Round.

Yulia Putintseva could have more success than others against the Jennifer Brady serve, but I do think she will be under pressure to look after her own serve. She has beaten Brady in their two previous matches and one took place on the hard courts, although these two are playing each other for the first time in over two years.

I do respect the return game of Putintseva and the confidence she seems to have in the draw, but Jennifer Brady is playing at an elite level over the last month and I think that will be enough to see things go in her favour. At times Jennifer Brady may find it hard to hit through Yulia Putintseva, but eventually I think she will begin to crack through and produce a good looking win in this Quarter Final.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Shelby Rogers: At the start of the tournament I was wondering whether Naomi Osaka was fully ready to compete at the US Open, but she looks healthy and has been largely dominant in the first four matches here. I would make Osaka the favourite to win the title having won the Australian Open and US Open previously, but she will have to make sure she is not thinking too far ahead.

So far Naomi Osaka has not only contained her focus on the court, but she has remained a leading figure of the tennis world when it comes to highlighting social injustices and I have to credit the levels being produced.

The serve has been dominant and Osaka has been able to have plenty of success off the return which is going to put pressure on Shelby Rogers in this Quarter Final. Surprisingly this is not the first Quarter Final Rogers has played at Grand Slam level and even more of a surprise is that the previous one came at the French Open on the clay courts.

The American somehow managed to see off Petra Kvitova in the Fourth Round having never been beyond the Third Round at either the US Open or the Australian Open in the past. Shelby Rogers wasn't exactly showing off great form in the two tournaments played before the US Open began, but she was playing well in her first three matches here before looking second best for large portions of the win over Petra Kvitova.

The return was a real struggle for Rogers in the Fourth Round and it is not going to be any easier against Naomi Osaka who has only dropped serve three times in four matches. The former World Number 1 was dominant in the Fourth Round and only a couple of lapses of concentration has seen her drop a couple of sets in the first four matches here.

Shelby Rogers has a serve that has to be respected when at her top form, but I would suggest that Naomi Osaka is a better returner than Petra Kvitova who won 41% of return points and created fourteen break points in the last Round. I expect the favourite to put Rogers under pressure from the off in this one with her own serve being a potent weapon and Naomi Osaka can edge a little closer to trying to win her third Grand Slam title.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1.5 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 36-32, - 1.64 Units (136 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)

US Open Day 14 Tennis Picks 2019- Men's Final (September 8th)

She The North.

Bianca Andreescu won yet another major title on the hard courts in 2019 and it was by far the biggest of the lot as she became the latest Grand Slam Champion on the WTA Tour. It was a win she deserved, even through the second set blip, and I do think Andreescu is built to be a major player for years to come.

For Serena Williams it is a fourth Grand Slam Final loss since returning from giving birth and it is going to get harder and harder for the American to win Number 24. That has looked a foregone conclusion for a number of years, but younger players are no longer intimidated and there are enough quality players in the women's game to think there will always be one player better than her in the coming months.

Wimbledon and the US Open in 2020 will be her best chances for a Grand Slam title to match Margaret Court and Williams will be amongst the favourites in Melbourne and Paris too, but I would not be that eager to put my money down on her to earn the one more Grand Slam she needs to join Court at 24 for her Singles career. It is still more likely than not when you think how close Williams has come in the last couple of years, but it is not as guaranteed as it once felt.


The US Open comes to a close on Sunday and we end the tournament with the men's Final. It is a chance for Rafael Nadal to move to within one Grand Slam of Roger Federer at the top of the men's list, but Daniil Medvedev is going to be entering the Final with plenty of confidence too.

You can read my Pick below and I have also updated the US Open totals for the tournament.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: A lot of the headlines in the United States will be taken over by the NFL with the majority of Week 1 games of the 2019 season being played on Sunday, but for tennis fans it is the last Singles match to be played in the Grand Slams in this calendar year too. The Men's Final is taking centre stage on Sunday and it looks to be a very good one on paper when Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev meet for the title.

Both players have come through some injury concerns to make the Final and both were strong winners in their Semi Final matches on Friday. Daniil Medvedev was a straight sets winner over Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal matched that in his win over Matteo Berrettini and it is the latter who has been given the favourite tag.

On first glance it looks like the Spaniard is far too short in the outright market, and I do think that has something to do with the fact that there are still out there that very much believe Medvedev is far from 100%. I also think the way Nadal beat Medvedev for the title in Montreal is playing a part in the prices as the 18 time Grand Slam Champion secured that win with just three games lost and he had broken the young Russian in 57% of return games that day.

I do think Daniil Medvedev will have learned from the experience, and I would be surprised if he doesn't make this a little more competitive. However I also have to take note that he has not been a dominant winner in the last two Rounds and those matches could have easily moved in another direction if the first set tie-breaker had been lost by Medvedev rather than won.

Daniil Medvedev is playing the big points very well at the moment and that can be underlined by his performances in break points in the last few matches. He actually earned fewer break points in the Fourth Round than Dominik Koepfer and earned the same amount as both Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter and Semi Final respectively, but on each occasion it is Medvedev who has provided more break points than his opponents.

He is going to have to continue to play his best tennis at the key moments, but Rafael Nadal has been the superior hard court player over the last twelve months and his level has been consistently higher than Medvedev's throughout this tournament. Rafael Nadal has also needed to win one fewer match having benefited from a withdrawal in the Second Round and the Spaniard looks to be the fresher going into this match.

I would be disappointed if Medvedev is not able to at least be competitive for a while in this match, but I think he is going to struggle to contain Nadal who will be happy for the longer rallies to develop to wear down his opponent. He has to expect a tougher challenge than the one he faced in the Semi Final, but I think the Spaniard is going to move to one Grand Slam behind Roger Federer with a win that sees him pull away from the middle of the match and that should give him every chance of covering this mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 27-18, + 8.68 Units (90 Units Staked, + 9.64% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2019 (September 5-9)

Five months of Football officially started two weeks ago when the 2019 College Football season got underway, but it is the time for the professionals to take centre stage as the 2019 NFL season kicks off on Thursday 5th September.

Every team playing in Week 1 will be looking forward to being in a position to compete for the Super Bowl in South Florida on Sunday 2nd February 2020, even those who look to be tanking away the season in preparation for a much stronger 2020.

I love the excitement at this time of the year- the days are getting shorter, but Sunday's become very live with the NFL games taking place from 6pm United Kingdom time right through to 3am Monday morning. It means a lack of sleep at times, but I love the games and I am looking forward to another memorable season, the 100th in the history of the NFL which is remarkable alone.

It is much easier to enjoy the NFL when your own team is going to be absolutely awful- the Miami Dolphins have traded away every single piece of note and I would be surprised if they can do much better than 4-12 for the regular season. Much more will be expected in 2020 if they can get the Draft right next year, while there will be money to spend in Free Agency too, but for now it means having another year of pain... Which Dolphins fan isn't used to that though?!!

Personally I just hope someone can stop the New England Patriots this year- I could never cheer for a Divisional rival, but like many I can't stand much about the Patriots at all. You have to respect Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but if they can guide the Patriots to the Super Bowl again despite all of the changes and upheaval at that team over the summer, then I don't doubt both go down as the greatest Head Coach and Quarter Back of all time.

The AFC does look a little weaker than the NFC this year when you look at the depth of teams in both Conferences, but it is the AFC who have produced the Super Bowl Champion in five of the last seven years. I think that could have something to do with the wear and tear teams pick up in the highly competitive NFC, especially through the PlayOffs, although it isn't going to be an excuse used by those teams in the National Football Conference looking to pick up the big prize.


Before I get onto my Week 1 Picks, I am just going to give you a quick run through of the Divisions and offer up my PlayOff teams from each Conference as well as the Super Bowl Winner I would be backing right now. These things change so quickly in the NFL with injuries and momentum hard to judge in September compared with the end of November, but that means I will have to have a mid-season post with newer predictions as the season develops.


AFC East- if the New England Patriots don't win this Division, even with the changes made in the off-season and the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, I will be stunned. It is a Division where the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills will show improvement, but not enough to find a Wild Card spot, while the less said about the Miami Dolphins the better.

Winner: New England Patriots

AFC North- the Cleveland Browns have plenty of fans backing them this season and the talent is there for all to see. However the Browns have not had a consistent success for so long now that they may have forgotten what it is like.

I also don't think Pittsburgh or Baltimore are as bad as some may have you believe so this is a Division from which I can see a Wild Card produced as long as the top three teams don't cannibalise one another to leave only the Division winner standing. The Cincinnati Bengals are transitioning and look short of depth on both sides of the ball.

Winner: Cleveland Browns; Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South- a Division was changed in all aspects by the decision of one man: Andrew Luck's retirement means there is a more open feel about the AFC South as I would have had Indianapolis as clear favourites with Luck at Quarter Back.

The Colts should still be ok, but the Houston Texans might be the team to beat if they can keep Deshaun Watson upright. He has plenty of Receiving threats to look to in the passing game and the Texans still have a decent Defensive unit even after trading away Jadeveon Clowney to the Seattle Seahawks.

I also expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to bounce back having failed to make the PlayOffs in 2018, the year after reaching the AFC Championship Game, while the Tennessee Titans are better than the sum of their parts. This is another Division in which all of the teams will believe they can at least lock up a Wild Card spot.

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (think 9-7 is enough for any team)

AFC West- the Oakland Raiders move to Las Vegas next season, but I think this could be another long season for a team still looking to be moulded in the image Jon Gruden wants. They will be challenging for the Number 1 Pick in the next Draft for much of the season.

I expect so much more from the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs and this looks a very competitive Division. Schedules are going to be key and I think the Chiefs will see off the Chargers for the AFC West crown again, although I fully expect Philip Rivers to be back in the PlayOffs.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs; Wild Card: Los Angeles Chargers


NFC East- this has long been considered one of the premier Divisions in the NFL, but this season I can't see it being anything but a two team race between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Both look very strong and it would surprise no one if the Week 16 game at Lincoln Field between the Cowboys and Eagles decide the fate of the NFC East.

The Giants and Redskins look to be involved in transitional seasons. Both should start rookie Quarter Backs before long and, while having some positive pieces, it is going to be a long, tough season for both.

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles; Wild Card: Dallas Cowboys

NFC North- the Detroit Lions might be about to embark in another long season and I would not be surprised if Head Coach Matt Patricia pays for it with his job at some point before the conclusion of the regular season.

Chicago might just fall back a little bit which will open the door for the Minnesota Vikings who are a team built to win now. I also expect the Green Bay Packers to be a lot better than 2018 with a new Offensive minded Head Coach and Aaron Rodgers healthier than he was a year ago.

All three teams will have Super Bowl aspirations this season and this Division is going to be a fight to the finish.

Winner: Chicago Bears; Wild Card: Green Bay Packers

NFC South- the New Orleans Saints saw their 2017 season end in heartbreaking fashion in the PlayOffs, but it was even more difficult to take at the end of the 2018 season with a botched call proving to be the pivotal moment in the NFC Championship Game.

They have shown they can bounce back, but the team looked a little shaky down the stretch and I do wonder if Drew Brees is finally showing signs of regression.

If he has the Carolina Panthers might be best placed to take advantage as long as Cam Newton is fully healthy. Atlanta are a team filled with skill players, but Defensively there are questions, while Tampa Bay are a work in progress, although a team I expect to be better than the 2018 version.

Winner: New Orleans Saints

NFC West- the return of Jimmy G from injury has made San Francisco a trendy pick to reach the PlayOffs, but I am not convinced he is 100%, at least from a mental point of view. The 49ers should be better, but Defensively there are some issues and I think they are still a season away in this Division.

Last season's Super Bowl Runner Up the Los Angeles Rams have had a few changes in personnel and also looked to be struggling in the second half of the season compared with the first half. I can see them being very vulnerable, although being in the NFC West will help.

Seattle are always there or thereabouts, but they have lost Doug Baldwin and the Offensive Line is still a problem. The Cardinals are in a transition process so this might be the weakest Division in Football which allows the Rams to earn their way back into the PlayOffs, but with a far weaker record than last season.

Winner: Los Angeles Rams


AFC Seeds: 1) New England Patriots; 2) Kansas City Chiefs; 3) Cleveland Browns; 4) Jacksonville Jaguars; 5) Pittsburgh Steelers; 6) Los Angeles Chargers.

NFC Seeds: 1) Philadelphia Eagles; 2) Chicago Bears; 3) Los Angeles Rams; 4) New Orleans Saints; 5) Dallas Cowboys; 6) Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl LIV Pick: Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles


Let's be honest though, those predictions can look very foolish within two weeks of the season kicking off and I think a lot of people who have put their predictions out in various forums will understand that is the way it goes.

Picking the second favourite is hardly staring out over the parapet either, but the Chiefs look like they can produce enough Offensive firepower to be the team to beat. The Philadelphia Eagles might be able to give you a better run for the money at their price for the Super Bowl, but it does look like the leading contenders are going to be hard to oppose.

A big priced team that could surprise are Jacksonville now they have Nick Foles leading the team from the Quarter Back position, but they are in a tough Division and I think at this stage it is better holding onto your outright cash and looking to see how the season goes through to Week 9 or 10 at least.

Week 1 Picks

Just like that we are into Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season and I think it is fitting that the Chicago Bears host Green Bay in the first game of the 100th season of the League.

Those teams are meeting for the 199th and 200th time during the 2019 regular season and I think it is a very attractive opening game for the NFL with plenty of storylines and intrigue attached to it.

Last season was a good one for the NFL Picks despite some up and down moments in the last few weeks of the season. The Super Bowl winning Pick meant a profit for the 2018 season, but it wasn't as memorable as the 2013 season which has been good enough to cover the letdown in 2015 and 2016.

The last two seasons have been better, but I do want to improve the 53% winning record. Last season it was the management of the Picks that really helped, but I do see room for improvement to say the least.

Like most weeks, I am going to try and have the thread out by Thursday ahead of the start of any given Week. It may or may not include a selection from the Thursday Night Football offering and my aim is to have most Picks ready and locked in by Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

A strong start to the season should hopefully provide the momentum to take through the 2019 season and I am looking forward to having a good one. Best of luck to everyone who is getting ready for a big season.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: A Divisional game between two of the oldest rivals in the NFL to open the 100th season of the League should have everyone pumped for the 2019 NFL season. The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears both look capable of being amongst the best teams in the NFL this season too which only adds to the intrigue surrounding this game and I think it is the perfectly scheduled opener for headlines to be made.

The Packers decided to remove Mike McCarthy as Head Coach after it became clear that things had become stagnant under his watch. There were clearly issues with the Head Coach and Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers who suffered only his second ever full season with a losing record as a starter for the Packers.

A 6-9-1 record and missing the PlayOffs in back to back seasons was always going to lead to some changes, but it was no less surprising to see someone like Matt LaFleur given the Head Coach role in Green Bay. There hasn't been a lot of positive history to suggest he was ready for this kind of stage, but LaFleur is in and is confident he can take the Packers Offensive unit into the 21st Century after the predictable play-calling of the former Head Coach both frustrated his players and the fans.

Getting on the same page as Aaron Rodgers immediately is going to be vital for LaFleur to show he can lead the Packers and also get the best out of a Quarter Back who has been with enough talented squads to have expected to have earned more than a single Super Bowl ring. Last season Rodgers was clearly not at 100% ever since the Week 1 game against the Chicago Bears, but that doesn't account for the fact he is 24-24-1 in his last forty-nine games as a starting Quarter Back for the Packers.

Some of that will be down to the frustration and discord between himself and Mike McCarthy, but Rodgers is going to have to trust the new Head Coach and not look to do everything himself. Being better protected will help, but the Offensive Line will also be asked to create better running lanes for Aaron Jones who should be the lead Back for the Packers.

Davante Adams should continue to be targeted heavily, but others need to step up and make the Packers that much more difficult to defend. Aaron Rodgers will need to trust those younger Receivers a little more, but I do expect to see a decent game from the Quarter Back, even against a much respected Chicago Bears team.

One player who could certainly help in the game-planning for Week 1 is new Green Bay Safety Adrian Amos who arrived from the Chicago Bears. He should have some knowledge on how to attack the players left in Chicago after Bryce Callahan also departed, but the biggest factor for the Bears Defensive unit to have a regression is the departure of Vic Fangio, the Defensive Co-Ordinator of 2018.

I still expect the Bears to have a strong Defense that can make it difficult for teams throughout the NFL, but Aaron Rodgers is the kind of Quarter Back that can expose any indecisive moments in the Secondary. Khalil Mack is going to be an issue as he was against Green Bay last season, but Rodgers should feel good about his chances of moving the chains in this difficult opener.

He will certainly be easier to believe in than Mitch Trubisky who is now in his third year as a professional in the NFL. I did think Trubisky played well last season and his 24 Touchdown passes with 12 Interceptions is not a bad record for a player who is not being asked to win games on his own, but to just avoid the really bad mistakes that can cost Chicago games.

So far it has been so good for Trubisky who is also capable of making plays with his legs which makes him a dangerous Quarter Back to face. The Offensive Line does just enough to protect Trubisky, but they are going up against an upgraded Packers Defensive Line who have signed some big time pass rushers to aid them up front.

Both Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith have been signed in Free Agency and I do think the Packers look improved with Amos now playing in the Safety position. These additions which certainly test Mitchell Trubisky and see if he has improved his accuracy to get to the Corner Backs of the Packers who are perhaps not as strong having produced just 7 Interceptions last season.

They are experienced though and Green Bay will believe they can make it very difficult for the Chicago Receivers to find separation when Trubisky does go back to throw. It may mean the Bears have to lean on rookie David Montgomery who is set to be the feature Running Back after Jordan Howard was traded away and they will be running into a Green Bay Defensive Line which has lost Mike Daniels.

Montgomery, Trubisky and Tarik Cohen should have some success running the ball, but Chicago continue to have a Kicker issue and if they get bogged down Offensively it will certainly give the Packers an edge in this one.

I have actually picked the Chicago Bears to still finish above the Green Bay Packers, but in Week 1 getting the points could be critical. I would have loved to have still been able to get the hook with the Packers, but having a full Field Goal start is still appealing in what looks like a game that could come down to a final kick to decide it.

It is difficult to ignore the fact that Chicago were 6-1 against the spread as the home favourite in 2018 and they also finished 6-0 against the spread in Divisional games. Mitchell Trubisky has a strong record at home since becoming Chicago's starting Quarter Back and he is also 7-3 against the spread as the home favourite.

However the Bears have yet to cover on Thursday Night Football and they are facing Aaron Rodgers who has a 36-29 record against the spread when playing with revenge. He hasn't always been at his best in the road underdog spot, and Green Bay have a pretty miserable recent record when playing a Conference opponent as an underdog seeking revenge, but I do think the Packers will be revitalised under a new direction and the Bears having kicking issues might be the storyline as it was at the end of the 2018 season.

The Packers were beaten here last season, but they are 16-5 against the spread in their last twenty-one games in Chicago. In recent years the road underdog spot has not been kind to Green Bay, but I think they have enough Offense here and an improved Defensive unit to keep things very close and potentially even earn the upset.

I expect the arrival of Matt LaFleur to inspire a big performance from Aaron Rodgers as Green Bay bid to turn the page on the Mike McCarthy era immediately and by taking the Divisional Champions to the brink on the road is the perfect place to do that. 

This should be a really good start to the 2019 NFL season, and I am opening up with a back of the underdog with the points, especially now low layers are giving us the hook on the Field Goal start.


Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I am pretty high on the Philadelphia Eagles this season and I do believe we will see a team that is closer to the one that won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2017 season than the one that were 9-7 in the regular season and were beaten in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last time around.

Both times the Eagles have been guided by Nick Foles at Quarter Back when Carson Wentz went down with an injury, but this time there is no such backup if things go wrong for their starting Quarter Back. Foles has moved on to Jacksonville so it is imperative for Carson Wentz to have a full season having been knocked out of the last two seasons when it was magic from his backup that gave the Eagles a chance in the PlayOffs.

Much is going to depend on Wentz' health, but he can't have other excuses as he gets to play behind a very strong Offensive Line and has plenty of skilled weapons to help move the chains. A strong group of Running Backs should open things up in the passing game and Carson Wentz did have 21 Touchdown passes with just 7 Interceptions last season, while throwing for over 3000 yards before injuries got the better of him.

Running the ball against the Washington Redskins won't be easy as the strength of that team lies in the Defensive Line. However this feels like it is going to be a long season for Washington considering the Offensive growing pains they are likely to suffer through and that will keep the Defense on the field for long periods which is also going to have an impact on their ability to make the plays the talented group can.

I do like the moves Washington have made in the Secondary with Landon Collins coming in to replace Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, but Josh Norman has to rediscover his form and I do think Philadelphia's Running Backs will also cause problems in coverage and could be another method for the Eagles to move the chains against this Divisional rival.

At the end of the day I do expect the Eagles to establish some form of the run which can open things up for Carson Wentz to make big plays down the field. If he can play a clean enough game, the Eagles are going to show people why they were such big favourites in Week 1.

While I have to respect the Washington Defensive unit, I do think there is enough about this Eagles Offense to at least find a way to move the chains and score points. They might be playing with strong field position all day too because Philadelphia also boast a very strong Defense, but this is a unit going up against a Washington Offense that does not look to have the tools to be very effective consistently.

Case Keenum is most likely going to get the nod as starting Quarter Back with Alex Smith injured and I am assuming Jay Gruden having the knowledge that it could be an impossible situation to put Draft Pick Dwayne Haskins on the field. Haskins is likely going to be given a chance to learn behind the veteran Keenum, but it could be a long day for him considering the awful Offensive Line that the Redskins are going to have to use on Sunday.

To make matters worse Trent Williams continues to sit out and that means Keenum is going to have to pray the likes of Fletcher Cox take pity on him. It is unlikely with Jim Schwartz continuing as Defensive Co-Ordinator who loves to send the Defensive Line to get after the Quarter Back and the Eagles are very talented up front which should have them engulfing Keenum whenever he drops back to throw the ball.

Washington can't really rely on a running game in this one either considering the issues the Offensive Line have. Last season the Eagles held teams to 96 yards per game on the ground which was in the top ten of the NFL, and I think it is going to be very difficult for Case Keenum to move the chains and avoid turnovers.

The Eagles do want to improve on their turnover mark from last season and Jordan Reed's likely absence means the Secondary should be able to deal with all of the Receivers Washington are playing. It could be a big day for the Philadelphia Defensive unit to lay down a marker for the 2019 season.

The Redskins have lost all of the last four against the Philadelphia Eagles and failed to cover the spread in any of those defeats. All of those defeats have been by double digits so even this huge number, one I would usually skip past on an opening day Divisional matchup, is one that I believe the Eagles can and will cover.

Philadelphia are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Week 1 games and Washington are 1-5 against the spread in the same situation. Doug Pederson has gone 3-0 against the spread, while the Eagles have tended to play well as the favourite in the opening week of the season.

Even though this is a revenge game for the Redskins, Coach Pederson is 17-12 against the spread playing teams with that motivation behind them. On the other side, Jay Gruden is just 21-29 against the spread in that spot.

The only thing that is bothering me is that Case Keenum has a decent record in the road underdog role, but Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Defense play better at home and I am going to back the team I believe wins the NFC East to win in Week 1 with a strong performance on both sides of the ball.


Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Injuries hit the Carolina Panthers hard last year and I think that is part of the reason Head Coach Ron Rivera has been given another chance with the team despite the 7-9 record in 2018. At one point the Panthers were 6-2, but Cam Newton was then banged up and they lost seven games in a row before winning in Week 17 to show the players are still very much behind their Head Coach.

A bounce back season has to be expected from the Panthers who had reached the PlayOffs in four of the previous five years and made the Super Bowl. With that in mind it is not hard to understand why Rivera avoided being given the boot, and there is a lot more positive vibes around this team going into the 2019 season with Cam Newton looking healthier.

A scare in the pre-season should not hold Newton out of this game and he is going to need all of his energy and wheels to make sure he continues to help Carolina get into a position to win games. Last season his Offensive Line gave up 32 Sacks and they are not expected to be much better in 2019 either, but Newton can scramble and take off for big gains, while he is ably supported by Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

It is going to be a big test for the Panthers Offensive Line as they take on a much vaunted Los Angeles Defensive Line who remain strong even without Ndamukong Suh. I still don't think it will lessen the impact Aaron Donald is going to have up front, although stopping McCaffrey both as a runner and a Receiving threat is going to be difficult task for the Rams who did have issues stopping the run last season.

Christian McCaffrey is also going to be important in giving Cam Newton a safety valve by providing a mismatch in the middle of the field and I think that will be something used to open up the passing game. I am not convinced Newton has a huge outing against this LA Rams Secondary, but there are some talented Receivers around him and the Quarter Back won't be afraid to take some chances.

The Rams were a revelation in the NFL last season in Sean McVay's second season as the Head Coach and much of the attention was grabbed by an Offensive unit that ranked in the top five of Total Offense, Passing, Rushing and Points per Game. The amount of points scored makes them very dangerous and is perhaps a key reason they are favoured to win on the East Coast in Week 1, but there are some questions to answer.

Todd Gurley's health is easily the biggest question mark and taking a Running Back in the Third Round of the Draft won't have made those any easier to answer. We saw in the PlayOffs that the Rams can plug bodies in, CJ Anderson having a superb time, but the Rams Offensive Line looks weaker than a year ago and I think that is going to put additional pressure on Jared Goff and the whole Offense.

We are going to see the Offensive Line tested immediately with the likes of Bruce Irvin coming in and Brian Burns being Drafted in the First Round by the Panthers. Those are the kind of players that are expected to revitalise the pass rush and going up against this newly built Rams Offensive Line may give the Panthers the chance to rattle a fourth year Quarter Back.

I would expect Carolina to be stouter against the run too and it might take Los Angeles a little time to really get the Offensive Line on the same page. That could mean seeing Goff having to throw from third and long situations, something the Rams won't want to see too often.

It would be a surprise if Goff still wasn't able to make some plays with the talented skill players the Rams have and there being a couple of holes in the Carolina Secondary. Even then he will have to beware of turning the ball over and this should give Carolina chances of earning the upset in Week 1.

The early Eastern Time kick off is a tough spot for any West Coast team to face and Ron Rivera is 35-24 against the spread as the underdog since becoming Head Coach of the Panthers. Carolina are 5-2 against the spread as the home underdog in the last four seasons too.

Los Angeles are 8-6 against the spread as the road favourite since Sean McVay took over, but this team is off a Super Bowl loss and those teams are 5-19 against the spread in Week 1 of the following season. You have to think the Carolina Panthers are going to be highly motivated after seeing themselves as the home underdog and I also think it is better to be with the sharps on this one with bigger things expected from the Panthers in 2019 compared with 2018.

I also feel the Rams won't be as strong as 2018 and the Rams have not covered in their last five games in Carolina. I am taking the points in this one.


Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Pick: When the initial spread came out for this game it was going to be one that I would leave alone- since then Miami have clearly shown they are a team that is not thinking about 2019 having released or traded away most of their best players in the off-season.

The latest departures are Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills who have been traded to the Houston Texans and Kiko Alonso to the New Orleans Saints, while veterans are being cut across the board. New Head Coach Brian Flores has dismissed the idea of 'tanking', but Dolphins fans around the world must be wondering if they are going to become the second team to fail to win a regular season game.

Ryan Tannehill is another who has left which means Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be given the starting Quarter Back role and his backup will be former Number 1 Draft Pick Josh Rosen who is only entering his second year in the NFL. It says something that the Cardinals did not want to keep Rosen around and even relying on 'Fitz Magic' seems like it will be destined to go how it has at all the other teams the bearded one has Quarter Backed.

It is hard to imagine how anyone can succeed in the current climate in Miami when the players have to know this is a team not designed to win now. You have to play hard and give it your all to show you can belong in the years ahead, but Miami are going to be a mess for much of the season.

They have an Offensive Line which has lost their best player in Tunsil who was also protecting the Quarter Back's blindside, and I am not sure how they think they can improve on the 52 Sacks allowed last season. Both Tackles have left from 2018, but at least Miami are facing a Baltimore team that have lost some key contributors up front and at Linebacker which may see a decline in the number of Sacks Baltimore produce in 2019.

Much is still going to be on Fitzpatrick though as I don't believe Miami will be able to run the ball effectively in this game. Even though Eric Weddle has moved on, the Ravens still have a tough Secondary and I am not sure who is going to step up for the Dolphins and make the plays they need to keep the chains moving in this one.

In 2018 Miami were in the bottom five when it came to Total Offense and Passing Yards and finished with the sixth lowest Points per Game and I don't think there will be much improvement in any of those departments. It is going to put a lot of pressure on the Dolphins Defensive unit, but that has also been decimated from 2018 and this is the beginning of a long season for the team and the fans.

Baltimore have some issues to address too this season as they have a new look Defensive unit, while also asking Lamar Jackson to take the Offensive unit on the next step of their development. Much is going to depend on how well Jackson has improved in the passing aspect of his game, but the Ravens are confident enough to have moved on from Joe Flacco and given the young Quarter Back the keys to the team.

His Offensive Line were much happier running the ball than passing last season though and I think this is a game in which Baltimore will feel they can do what they want up front. The Miami Defensive Line has lost key players and last year they gave up 145 yards per game on the ground which was the second worst number in the NFL.

It is unlikely to be one that improves so I can expect to see Jackson and Mark Ingram have some very strong numbers on the day. I think later in the season we will get to see how much Jackson has improved as a passer, but in this one he should be comfortable playing from third and manageable situations as long as he avoids throwing at Xavien Howard.

The heat is a potential factor in Miami and it could be the biggest opponent for the Baltimore Ravens to overcome. However the Ravens should be able to control the clock and it might be the Dolphins who end up suffering if their Defensive unit has to be on the field for long periods while chasing Jackson and Ingram when they are making big gains.

Baltimore have enjoyed playing Miami with a cover in the last eight between these teams which includes five straight covers in Miami. If the Dolphins players do feel this is going to be a long season, I can imagine they are perhaps saving themselves for the big game in Week 2 against the New England Patriots which is also being hosted in South Florida and that may play a part in this game.

The Ravens are 8-1 against the spread under John Harbaugh in Week 1 when they are not playing the Denver Broncos, while they are 11-1 against the spread when playing with rest against a non-Division opponent. In recent years the Miami Dolphins have been a home underdog to respect, but I do think the Patriots game on deck can see them perhaps lose a bit of focus and it will be the rushing attack of the Ravens that can see them win this game.

Miami have made good starts in Week 1 games in recent years too, but I don't know how the players can be feeling after seeing so many big performers moved on in the last few days. I am also not a big fan backing a team who the public are pounding, but Baltimore should be able to get off to a winning start and I would be happy to take any spread under a converted Touchdown mark.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: They might be the team I have picked to win the Super Bowl in Miami on February 2nd 2020, but the Kansas City Chiefs might be forced into playing from 0-1 in the 2019 season. The Chiefs head to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 of the season and I do think the hosts are a team that have all the capabilities of bouncing back after a sub-par season.

It is a surprise that Doug Marrone has kept his job as Head Coach of the Jaguars after a 5-11 season, especially as this was a team who reached the AFC Championship Game at the end of the 2017 season. Missing the PlayOffs with the talent that the Jaguars have was a huge blow and the reaction is clear as they have finally replaced Blake Bortles as the starting Quarter Back by bringing Nick Foles, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Foles is a Super Bowl winner having led the Eagles to the title over the New England Patriots at the end of the 2017 season. He is an upgrade on Bortles, especially in the system used by the Jaguars which is asking their Quarter Back not to lose games rather than going out to win them.

There is a pressure on Nick Foles with so many believing he is the missing piece of the puzzle for the Jaguars, but this team is not the Philadelphia Eagles as far as the Offensive talent is concerned. The Offensive Line gave up 53 Sacks a year ago as injury hurt them, but there is no guarantee that even getting back some starters feeling healthier is going to be enough to give Foles the time he will need to make plays down the field.

It is going to be a challenge to keep the Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Line from having their way up front if Foles is forced into obvious passing situations. There has also been a couple of upgrades made to the Secondary which means it is going to be tough for the Jaguars to win their battles if they are not able to establish the run and at least open up play-action and keep the Offense in third and manageable spots.

In 2018 the Chiefs received a lot of plaudits and I can even forgive them for some of the passing numbers against them as teams were forced to throw playing from behind. However the rush Defense was not as strong as it should be so Nick Foles could be benefit from handing the ball to Leonard Fournette who is in a contract year.

Fournette should be able to establish the run and at least help the Jaguars stay in manageable Downs and distance and it will also be key for the home team to try and control the clock and keep the Chiefs Offense baking in the Florida sun.

It is the best place to have Patrick Mahomes if you are a Jacksonville fan as the Quarter Back is one of the most dynamic of recent years. Kansas City and Andy Reid were obviously very sure of what they had at the Quarter Back position so dealt Alex Smith away and Mahomes responded with 50 Touchdown passes thrown as well as taking the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game.

I am not anticipating a huge drop off from Mahomes who is still surrounded by some very skilled players and his ability to make plays on the run also helps the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection. Kareem Hunt is no longer here, but Andy Reid is capable of plugging someone in at Running Back, while Tyreek Hill has avoided a suspension.

We will learn plenty about the Chiefs Offense and what they have learned from last season and what teams have learned from them when they face the Jaguars in Week 1. The Jacksonville Defensive Line is still amongst the best in the NFL and adding Josh Allen from Kentucky only makes them that much more threatening as they bid to get after Mahomes at Quarter Back.

Jalen Ramsey is one of the best Corner Backs in the NFL so there are ways they can defend some of the more talented players the Chiefs have and last season Jacksonville had one of the strongest passing Defenses in the League. They will want to at least plug the gaps up front to make sure the Chiefs are not able to establish the run, but this is a team that has enough about them to at least force this game to be very close.

Having the hook on the spread is huge which means even a Field Goal loss will see the home team cover. That is enough for me to want to be behind the Jaguars although I am going to keep stakes to a minimum for this one with the belief that the Chiefs could be the best team in the AFC.

I just feel this is a tough spot with people seemingly wanting to fall over themselves to back the Kansas City Chiefs, while I also think the Jaguars are a touch under-rated after a poor 2018. Nick Foles can avoid the mistakes which gives the Jaguars a chance in this one and I will take the points in this game too.


Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: You can't deny that the Cleveland Browns have made the kind of moves that will push them the top of the thinking for many picking teams to make the PlayOffs and perhaps even a Super Bowl winner. For a team that has long been in the doldrums, the Browns have to show they don't just have the talented players, but they have a team who can work together to be successful.

It has only been two years since the Browns finished 0-16 in the NFL, but that gave them the chance to Draft Baker Mayfield and he led the team to a much more respectable 7-8-1 record in 2018. There is no doubt that Baker Mayfield can rub people up the wrong way and he has been doing that throughout his College career as well as since joining the NFL, so there will be pressure on him to deliver on the big words he continues to speak.

I don't think Mayfield himself will believe he has put any additional pressure on himself or the rest of the Browns and you can't blame someone for being confident when you think of the skilled players all around him. Odell Beckham Jr being traded for from the New York Giants was a huge move for a team who look to be in win now mode, and the addition of Kareem Hunt later this year will be another boost.

While I do think the Cleveland Browns are going to be a very productive team from an Offensive standpoint, I would be a little concerned about the Offensive Line which looks to be the weakest point of their team. They struggled in pass protection and in helping to convert third downs, while paving the way for 105 yards per game on the ground.

However these are issues that may not show up against the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a third consecutive year with at least nine wins earned. The Titans are not a team that is going to appeal from a star point of view in the same way as the Browns, but Tennessee have shown they are better than the sum of their parts.

They did earn 39 Sacks in 2018 and Cameron Wake has been signed from the Miami Dolphins to boost the pass rush, but I am not sure the Defensive Line is as deep as they would like. It might mean Baker Mayfield is given a touch more time than he might have the rest of the season, but Tennessee can still make things very difficult with the strong Secondary capable of matching up with the Receiving weapons the Browns will bring to the field.

Mike Vrabel will know the Tennessee Defensive unit gives his team a chance for an upset in Week 1, but he will also be looking for more out of the Offense. Where they were a top ten Defensive team in 2018, the Offense was ranked in the bottom ten and it is up to Marcus Mariota to finally prove that he is franchise Quarter Back Tennessee want to build around in the years ahead.

To be fair to Mariota, the Titans are a team who are looking to go back to being a power running team that will open things up for the Quarter Back. Derrick Henry showed he can be the lead back for the Titans and he is going up against a rebuilt Cleveland Defensive Line that had given up 135 yards per game on the ground in 2018, although the signings made have been with an improvement in that number on the mind.

I think the Titans will feel they can establish the run though as they are familiar with the concepts being run while Cleveland are trying to put a team together. Over the course of the season the Browns may improve, but in Week 1 I think the Titans are able to get the run going which is going to make life that much easier for Mariota.

The Quarter Back has had issues throwing the ball at times, and he comes into this season having thrown 11 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions last season. Marcus Mariota has to be better if the Titans are going to get back into the PlayOffs, but he might be able to have some success in this one if Henry gets going and someone can step up in his Receiving corps which is lacking the big names.

There are areas in the Linebacker area and the Secondary which can be exposed by the Titans if they are playing from third and manageable spots and that is important here. It certainly feels like it will give Tennessee the opportunity to make this a closer game than many believe and being able to oppose the public is a bonus for me.

Under Head Coach Mike Vrabel the Titans are 4-1 against the spread as an underdog against non-Division opponents. They are facing a Cleveland team who have an awful record in Week 1 straight up and who were only 1-2 against the spread as a home favourite in 2018 while dealing with the huge amount of expectation that will be on them going into this opening game

Despite being crowned by many as Divisional winners and potential Super Bowl Champions before a game has been played, Cleveland know they have plenty to prove on the field. They are playing a hardened Tennessee Titans team who will feel they have nothing to lose in Week 1 and who can control the clock and make enough plays to keep this one close.

Maybe Cleveland will make a statement by blowing out the Titans in this one, but I think it is more likely there are some early teething problems for the new look Browns. With that in mind I am taking some more points with an underdog.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: 78-67-2, + 10.46 Units