Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2017- Men's Final (January 29th)

The Women's Final had all of the emotion that we were expecting prior to Venus Williams and Serena Williams taking to the court, but it lacked the drama once the younger Williams sister settled down in the first set. She managed to do that just quickly enough to avoid going a set down and from the moment Serena moved into a 5-3 lead in the first set, the Final was only going in one direction.

All credit to Venus Williams who fought impressively to stay with Serena as long as possible in the second set, but there were no real alarms for the new World Number 1 as she won an Open era most 23 Grand Slam titles.

The Serena Williams reign looks far from over and she is likely to go into the remaining three Grand Slams as a fairly heavy favourite and much shorter than the price she went off for the Australian Open. It is now up to the rest of the field to show they can bridge the new gap that Serena Williams looked to have produced from the rest, but it is a long season and I would expect Angelique Kerber and Karolina Pliskova in particular to go deep in some of the majors left.


While there was plenty of emotion in the Women's Final on Saturday, I would expect emotions and drama in the Men's Final which looks much more competitive on paper than the Serena v Venus one did.

This might not have been the Final we would have expected at the start of the tournament, but most will be satisfied at getting the chance to see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal compete for a Slam title again. It might be the last time we get to see that and I think both players might also feel they won't have a better chance to add to their own personal haul of titles which only intensifies the drama and desire for both.


The last couple of days have been tough for the picks with both falling a little short, but that doesn't distract from a very good tournament with just one more match to come on Sunday.


Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer: This has been a surprising run for both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in getting to another Grand Slam Final at the Australian Open- both are coming back from injuries and perhaps were looking to build into the 2017 season, but they are deserved Finalists and it is the kind of match that will draw the attention of both hardcore and casual tennis fans.

There hasn't been a bigger or better rivalry than Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer in the last fifteen years although the head to to head is slightly skewed in favour of the Spaniard. It is Nadal with the 23-11 head to head advantage over Federer but it is only 10-9 when they are not playing on the clay courts.

However that is when some statistics can be blinding as most of the Federer wins came earlier in their meetings and Nadal is actually 8-4 in non-clay court matches against the Swiss star since beating him in the Wimbledon Final in 2008. I also think it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Nadal has won all 3 previous matches between these players at the Australian Open and he has won each a little more comfortably.

Their first meeting here was in the Final in 2009 that Nadal managed to win in 5 sets, he then beat Federer in 2012 in 4 sets and 2014 in straight sets.

The question is how Nadal is feeling after a bruising five setter in the Semi Final which was played on Friday, a day after Federer had got through in a five setter himself. The feeling is that both are going to be a little sore from an unexpected run, but neither is likely to be back out on court for at least a couple of weeks (I expect Nadal to pull out of the Spanish Davis Cup team regardless of the outcome of the Final) so I think both will be capable of leaving everything out there.

Nadal was a little up and down with his serve in the Semi Final but that has been a shot that has worked for him through the Australian Open and he has been very good at the big points. For all the 'experts' suggesting this court is playing significantly faster than previous years, I am of the opinion that the Rod Laver Arena is not going to let Roger Federer breeze through his service games like the courts at Wimbledon and the US Open can do.

It certainly won't be the case against a returner of the ability of the Spaniard and Federer did have some issues with the serve against Stan Wawrinka in his own Semi Final. Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori combined had 22 break points against the Federer serve and I think Nadal will fashion his chances.

Mentally I do think Nadal has the edge- Federer might have won their last match in the Basel Final in 2015, but I think Nadal is much healthier than he was back then and Federer is perhaps not at the same level. That snapped a run of five consecutive wins for Nadal of which four had been played on the hard courts including at the ATP World Tour Finals which you would think would favour Federer significantly.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal is able to get this done in three or four sets, but I will simply back the Spaniard to take the title home at a decent price. Playing in the second Semi Final doesn't put me off Nadal when you remember he had that epic match in the second Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco in 2009 before winning the title in five sets against Federer two days later.

Back then Federer looked healthier and had come through his own Semi Final in straight sets and I am just a little unsure that he enjoys the matches with Nadal as much he says he does. The Spaniard just has that 'Indian Sign' over Federer and I like Nadal to end his wait for another Grand Slam title on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 48-36, + 22.10 Units (162 Units Staked, + 13.64% Yield)

Australian Open Day 12 Picks 2014 (January 24th)

The Australian Open 2014 women's Final was set up on Thursday with Na Li ready to take on Dominika Cibulkova on Saturday and you have to think Li is going to be a pretty strong favourite to win her second Grand Slam. There is a couple of mental barriers to get over with Li having lost twice at Melbourne Park in the Final, but her opponent has never been to a Grand Slam Final and that lack of experience may prove to be the difference in the match.

We also saw Stanislas Wawrinka reach his first major Final with a four set win over Tomas Berdych and I have to say I am very happy for the Swiss man as he has deserved to take the next step with his performances over the last twelve months. It was a tense Semi Final which could have been swayed the other way with a couple of key points, but I think it says a lot about Wawrinka's temperament that his serve held up throughout the match.

That is an area where he would have faltered in the past and I credit him for avoiding a break of serve throughout the match, although he will still be a big underdog no matter who he faces in the Final on Sunday.

That will be decided on Friday when Rafael Nadal takes on Roger Federer for the second spot and I think it will be a fascinating match to watch.

Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Roger Federer: There are a couple of factors that are making this a far more intriguing match than it may have been over the last couple of years and that is the improved aggression of Roger Federer and the blisters on the left hand of Rafael Nadal.

Nadal has made it clear that he doesn't feel too much pain when he is playing points, but the blisters are affecting his serve which will be music to the ears of Federer fans. On the other hand, Federer has to keep up the aggressive tennis he has played so far the last couple of weeks, especially on the backhand side which has been the area most exploited by Nadal in the past.

It won't be a surprise to see the way this match is going to develop- Nadal will look to use his powerful left hand to expose the weakness in the Federer backhand and force the short ball... That is going to be a key to the whole match and whether Federer can make enough balls back off his weaker side will determine if he can win this one.

I think Federer's serve has been much improved from last season in the two weeks here and the former World Number 1 has looked after that aspect of his game by throwing in the serve-volley and also getting to the net very quickly after the points have been started. I believe the serve-volley will be an effective tactic against Nadal's backhand return which he does tend to chip back and forcing the Spaniard to hit through on the return from that wing should pay dividends.

While Federer is playing as well as he has for some time, it is hard to ignore the fact that Nadal has dominated their head to head and I still don't believe the backhand is effective enough to really trouble the World Number 1 over five sets. Nadal has won the last 5 matches between the players at the Grand Slams including a four set win here in Australia in 2012 and I think he is going to be able to replicate that result this year too.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 3-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

Australian Open Update: 29-19, + 19.21 Units (88 Units Staked, + 21.83% Yield)

French Open- Men's Final Preview and Pick

First things first, congratulations to Na Li for winning the Women's title here yesterday. It was probably the best performance from someone on the WTA Tour that I have seen all season for about a set and a half.

There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.


Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.

However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.

I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!

Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.

Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.

Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.

There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).

There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.


MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)

I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.

I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.

The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.

Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav