I am going to have a full recap of the Wimbledon event after this one is completed tomorrow, so I will use this post to solely make my pick for the Men's Final.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.
If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.
Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.
Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.
The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.
Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.
Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)
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Showing posts with label Men's Final Preview and Pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Men's Final Preview and Pick. Show all posts
Sunday, 8 July 2012
Saturday, 28 January 2012
Australian Open Day 14 Pick- Djokovic v Nadal
It turned out to be a wonderful Saturday as Victoria Azarenka confirmed her place as the new World Number 1 in Women's Tennis, beating Maria Sharapova in remarkably straight-forward fashion to also claim the Australian Open title.
It was wonderful as Azarenka had formed part of the staking plan at the beginning of the tournament and brought in the prize 7.00.
To make me feel even better, she also managed to secure the win in straight sets, meaning we picked up an additional 2 units of profit for the daily picks with one more match to go.
Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: This was the Final that everyone was looking forward to see as Rafael Nadal tries to put a disappointing 2011 behind him where he lost all 6 matches against Novak Djokovic, all coming in Finals.
Nadal is also looking to avoid a bit of negative history rather than a lot of the positive history he has made in his career as he could be the first player to lose three consecutive Grand Slam Finals in the Open Era I believe.
So how will this Final go tomorrow? Personally I think Novak Djokovic has an excellent chance to win this match and that is mainly down to one shot- the backhand down the line to the Nadal backhand was the shot that won him those matches last season, and we have already seen Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer have success to a lesser extent in this tournament.
The bottom line is Djokovic plays that shot with so much consistency and is is able to change the direction of the ball so well in rallies that it keeps Nadal a little off-balance when playing against him.
The Nadal serve also means he has to win more rallies than someone like Federer does when he plays Djokovic, and I think that is what gives the World Number 1 a definite edge as his consistency and shot-making ability off the backhand hurt Nadal effectively.
The intangibles here are how fit Djokovic is after really having a couple of extremely tough matches- however, I think the day and half rest will be enough for him to come out firing in this one and I do think he will be too good for the Spaniard again.
I have already picked Djokovic as my outright choice to win this tournament, so, like yesterday, I won't be loading any more money on him in the match markets.
Instead, I will look for the World Number 1 to win this match in 4 sets, a number of sets it took him to complete the job at Wimbledon and at the US Open against Nadal. It is also telling that Nadal won a set in 4 of their 6 meetings last season, suggesting he takes advantage when Djokovic slips from his level a little bit, but the Serbian is took good for the most part.
As I did yesterday, I am going to try and cover this Final live with my thoughts as the match progresses on this blog tomorrow. I really enjoyed doing it for the Women's Final, and there seemed to be enough people viewing to make it at least worth my while too.
Unlike yesterday, I will hopefully begin the thread before the match starts and cover right through to the lifting of the trophy.
Thanks for the support and I hope a few of you will join me in the morning for another fascinating clash between the two best players in the World... I will post a link on Twitter to the thread for the live updates.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 21-15, + 16.76 Units
It was wonderful as Azarenka had formed part of the staking plan at the beginning of the tournament and brought in the prize 7.00.
To make me feel even better, she also managed to secure the win in straight sets, meaning we picked up an additional 2 units of profit for the daily picks with one more match to go.
Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: This was the Final that everyone was looking forward to see as Rafael Nadal tries to put a disappointing 2011 behind him where he lost all 6 matches against Novak Djokovic, all coming in Finals.
Nadal is also looking to avoid a bit of negative history rather than a lot of the positive history he has made in his career as he could be the first player to lose three consecutive Grand Slam Finals in the Open Era I believe.
So how will this Final go tomorrow? Personally I think Novak Djokovic has an excellent chance to win this match and that is mainly down to one shot- the backhand down the line to the Nadal backhand was the shot that won him those matches last season, and we have already seen Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer have success to a lesser extent in this tournament.
The bottom line is Djokovic plays that shot with so much consistency and is is able to change the direction of the ball so well in rallies that it keeps Nadal a little off-balance when playing against him.
The Nadal serve also means he has to win more rallies than someone like Federer does when he plays Djokovic, and I think that is what gives the World Number 1 a definite edge as his consistency and shot-making ability off the backhand hurt Nadal effectively.
The intangibles here are how fit Djokovic is after really having a couple of extremely tough matches- however, I think the day and half rest will be enough for him to come out firing in this one and I do think he will be too good for the Spaniard again.
I have already picked Djokovic as my outright choice to win this tournament, so, like yesterday, I won't be loading any more money on him in the match markets.
Instead, I will look for the World Number 1 to win this match in 4 sets, a number of sets it took him to complete the job at Wimbledon and at the US Open against Nadal. It is also telling that Nadal won a set in 4 of their 6 meetings last season, suggesting he takes advantage when Djokovic slips from his level a little bit, but the Serbian is took good for the most part.
As I did yesterday, I am going to try and cover this Final live with my thoughts as the match progresses on this blog tomorrow. I really enjoyed doing it for the Women's Final, and there seemed to be enough people viewing to make it at least worth my while too.
Unlike yesterday, I will hopefully begin the thread before the match starts and cover right through to the lifting of the trophy.
Thanks for the support and I hope a few of you will join me in the morning for another fascinating clash between the two best players in the World... I will post a link on Twitter to the thread for the live updates.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 21-15, + 16.76 Units
Monday, 12 September 2011
US Open Men's Final Pick
The first thing I will say is I am still not quite over the shock of seeing Sam Stosur dismantle Serena Williams yesterday in the Women's Final.
Every time you would think Williams would come back she wouldn't and it was far easier than anyone could have possibly imagined.
My thoughts on the controversial incident at the beginning of set 2 is that the umpire could have used her discretion and called a 'let' on the point where Serena screamed before the point was technically won- Stosur was not going to get back to the shot, but I did remark BEFORE the point penalty that Williams should not be doing that.
While the rules state such an incident should see the point awarded to the opponent, in this case Stosur, I think the umpire could have given Williams a warning not to do it again and replayed the point rather than the way she handled it.
That is not to condone how Serena reacted when given a code violation in the next game, nor when she sent out a torrent of abuse at the changeover.
A big factor that may have been overlooked in the Final was the late nature of Serena's match the day before- Stosur had actually finished her Semi Final before Williams had even taken to the court and that may have been another reason why Williams underperformed.
That is not to take anything away from Stosur who played the best match of her career- now it will be interesting to see how she handles the next Grand Slam she plays after seeing how Petra Kvitova and Na Li have struggled since winning their first majors... Oh, and Stosur's next Grand Slam will be at home at the Australian Open, so no expectations then!
The Men's Final takes place today, weather permitting, and I think Novak Djokovic is rightly the favourite to come through. He has had Nadal's number this season, including on the Spaniard's favoured clay courts and it is hard to see how things can change here.
The fact Djokovic took 5 sets to see off Federer should be less of an issue than last year as it was not the gruelling match of 12 months ago, as well as the fact Djokovic managed to play his Semi Final first. Nadal may have won in 4 sets, but his match with Andy Murray also went a long time so fatigue should not play an issue.
The problem for Nadal is the pace and power Djokovic has- he can hit through the World Number 2 and also has incredible defensive skills.
The other key is Djokovic can handle the heavy top spin shots Nadal favours and I can only see the Serb winning his 3rd major of the season while reaffirming his Number 1 World Ranking.
Nadal is a battler, and I can see him taking a set, so I will have a small interest in Djokovic coming through 3-1 in sets.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 26-18, + 24.03 Units
Every time you would think Williams would come back she wouldn't and it was far easier than anyone could have possibly imagined.
My thoughts on the controversial incident at the beginning of set 2 is that the umpire could have used her discretion and called a 'let' on the point where Serena screamed before the point was technically won- Stosur was not going to get back to the shot, but I did remark BEFORE the point penalty that Williams should not be doing that.
While the rules state such an incident should see the point awarded to the opponent, in this case Stosur, I think the umpire could have given Williams a warning not to do it again and replayed the point rather than the way she handled it.
That is not to condone how Serena reacted when given a code violation in the next game, nor when she sent out a torrent of abuse at the changeover.
A big factor that may have been overlooked in the Final was the late nature of Serena's match the day before- Stosur had actually finished her Semi Final before Williams had even taken to the court and that may have been another reason why Williams underperformed.
That is not to take anything away from Stosur who played the best match of her career- now it will be interesting to see how she handles the next Grand Slam she plays after seeing how Petra Kvitova and Na Li have struggled since winning their first majors... Oh, and Stosur's next Grand Slam will be at home at the Australian Open, so no expectations then!
The Men's Final takes place today, weather permitting, and I think Novak Djokovic is rightly the favourite to come through. He has had Nadal's number this season, including on the Spaniard's favoured clay courts and it is hard to see how things can change here.
The fact Djokovic took 5 sets to see off Federer should be less of an issue than last year as it was not the gruelling match of 12 months ago, as well as the fact Djokovic managed to play his Semi Final first. Nadal may have won in 4 sets, but his match with Andy Murray also went a long time so fatigue should not play an issue.
The problem for Nadal is the pace and power Djokovic has- he can hit through the World Number 2 and also has incredible defensive skills.
The other key is Djokovic can handle the heavy top spin shots Nadal favours and I can only see the Serb winning his 3rd major of the season while reaffirming his Number 1 World Ranking.
Nadal is a battler, and I can see him taking a set, so I will have a small interest in Djokovic coming through 3-1 in sets.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 26-18, + 24.03 Units
Sunday, 5 June 2011
French Open- Men's Final Preview and Pick
First things first, congratulations to Na Li for winning the Women's title here yesterday. It was probably the best performance from someone on the WTA Tour that I have seen all season for about a set and a half.
There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.
Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.
However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.
I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!
Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.
Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.
Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.
There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).
There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)
I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.
I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.
The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.
Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav
There was a wobble towards the end of set 2, but Li deserved the win.
Anyone who followed my outright picks before the tournament are already in a fantastic position as I had picked Rafael Nadal (5 Units) and Roger Federer (2 Units) so we are going to come out of the match with a winning position.
However, I still feel there is a way to get on the match tomorrow so on to the Men's Final pick:
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Roger Federer: First thing to say is Rafael Nadal is being severely underestimated by the bookies that still have him priced as a 1.44 shot to win this match. To put it into comparison, Nadal was a 1.14 shot to beat Federer in a best of 3 sets match in Madrid, and it is definitely harder to win 3 out of 5 sets here in Paris.
I also think it has been forgotten that Nadal has beaten Federer 4 times here in Paris, including in 3 Finals, and the last time they played here saw the former World Number 1 win just 4 games... YES 4 GAMES!
Also point to the fact that Nadal has won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another on clay (the only defeat needs an asterix as Nadal was coming off a 4 hour match from the day before they met) and I really, genuinely, believe Nadal is being totally underestimated.
Everything Roger Federer did against Novak Djokovic has to be scrapped in order to beat Nadal. The Spaniard has better movement than Djokovic, and also makes sure Federer's backhand is a lot harder to hit by putting balls with a lot of top spin when attacking that wing.
Federer will need to serve exceptionally well and try to dictate points as much as possible. He will also need to attack the Nadal 2nd serve, but I have seen Nadal dominate this man too many times on clay to ignore this handicap.
There is a real chance Federer could take a set, but even that is a mighty struggle here in Paris where I believe Nadal has only ever dropped 13 sets (not 100% on that stat, but I believe that is correct from memory).
There is a real chance this match is completed in straight sets, but the handicap should be covered even if Federer does take a set off the King of Clay.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (4 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 24.09 Units (- 2 Units from Women's Final)
I also want to thank all of you that have been regularly checking this blog over the last 2 weeks of the tournament. As you know it is a fairly new blog and it is getting more and more readership each day.
I will continue picking tennis matches during the rest of the season, with the bigger tournaments seeing more activity. I have been fairly successful over the last few years in making picks, so will hopefully continue on from that in the fashion of this tournament.
The other sports picks will also continue, as will my own personal views on issues.
Thank you for your continued support of this blog, Dav
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