Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Pick 2023- Gentlemen's Final (July 16th)

A new women's Grand Slam Champion was crowned on Saturday and not many would have picked Marketa Vondrousova to have been that player rather than Ons Jabeur.

All of the come from behind wins caught up with the higher Ranked player in the Final, but the match up with Vondrousova is clearly a bad one for Ons Jabeur who has lost all three times she has faced the Czech lefty this season.

The wait for a Grand Slam title will go on for Jabeur, but the hope is that Marketa Vondrousova can use this victory at Wimbledon to push her career forward having had it stagnated by injury.

She is back in the top ten when the Rankings are released and Vondrousova is in the top five when it comes to the WTA race.

The key for Marketa Vondrousova will be backing this success up- some recent winners have struggled with the new expectation that surrounds them after a big title win, but others have been able to spark their careers and that has to be hope for a talented young player.

The Ladies Final is in the books, but that leaves what many will hope could be a classic Wimbledon Final when the top two men's players meet one another on Sunday. Conditions should be perfect for tennis on Sunday afternoon and I would be extremely surprised if this is not a top Final with the way Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz approach their tennis.

After finding a winning play in the Ladies Final, I am looking for one more positive pick to end what has been a poor tournament for the Tennis Picks.

We will be moving into a clay court summer for the ATP players before some of the US hard court tennis preparation begins later this month.

There may be some selections made over the next few weeks before the Masters tournaments begin in the lead up to the US Open, but I will be using some tighter margins in a bid to put some positive numbers on the board.

Carlos Alcaraz- Novak Djokovic over 39.5 games: The tournament started thirteen days ago and everyone who had seen the Gentlemen's draw at Wimbledon would have been hoping that Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic would meet on the final Sunday of the 2023 event.

The majority of fans have gotten exactly what they wanted and both Alcaraz and Djokovic should have no worries in regards to the amount of tennis played to earn the spot in the Final.

After what we saw at the French Open when an over-emotional Carlos Alcaraz saw his body let him down in the Semi Final as he crumbled in the final two sets, the big question will be how the Spaniard can cope with facing Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Final. A Grand Slam Semi Final is a stressful time to face arguably the best player of all time, but that stress is going to be ramped up in the Final and there will be a lot of eyes on the Alcaraz side of the court to see how he handles the occasion.

Carlos Alcaraz has noted what happened in Paris and has made it clear that he will try and approach this match differently to make sure he gives himself the best possible chance to win.

Of course the challenge is much different on the grass courts of Wimbledon compared with the clay courts of the French Open where Carlos Alcaraz was set as the favourite. Roles have reversed in this Wimbledon Final and that is not a surprise considering Novak Djokovic has not been beaten on Centre Court since the 2013 Wimbledon Final against Andy Murray.

The four time defending Champion has exuded his confidence in SW19 both on and off the court during this fortnight and it is no surprise that most will expect Novak Djokovic to win the title for an eighth time.

Novak Djokovic has done what is needed in his six wins in the tournament, but there will be chances for Carlos Alcaraz who has already won a title on the grass this year. The serve has been a big weapon for Djokovic, but Jannik Sinner showed there is a blueprint for Carlos Alcaraz to follow, although he will need to execute a little better at key moments where the Italian faltered.

As good as Novak Djokovic has been on the grass courts, his returning numbers at this tournament have not been quite up to the levels he has set in the past. This should be encouraging for Carlos Alcaraz who has been serving well at Wimbledon and throughout the last month on the grass, while the youngster has shown he can play some stunning tennis to work into breaks of serve.

Limited grass court and Wimbledon experience is against Carlos Alcaraz, but he should be reminded of his compatriot Rafael Nadal and what he was able to achieve early in his career on this surface.

The similarities are hard to ignore- Nadal had only won three matches at Wimbledon before reaching the Final in 2005 and pushing the defending Champion Roger Federer in a four set battle. Before this year, Carlos Alcaraz had won just four matches in SW19, but he has shown there is a confidence in his all-around tennis to be effective on all surfaces and he has the game to push the defending Champion in this 2023 Final.

Winning will be tough against Djokovic on this court, but Carlos Alcaraz will have the fans behind him and the two previous matches against the 23 time Grand Slam Champion have been competitive.

Even though he had limited movement in the final two sets of the Semi Final these two played in Paris, the total games reached thirty-five.

This Final should go at least four sets and the assumption is that Carlos Alcaraz will not suffer the same cramps and emotional rushes that he had to deal with in the French Open. That experience should have given him a better understanding of how to approach this match with Novak Djokovic and both of these players have served well enough at Wimbledon to expect this total games line to be surpassed.

MY PICK: Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 39.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 58-55, - 8.62 Units (226 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Pick 2023- Ladies Final (July 15th)

It is the Final that everyone would have hoped we would see at Wimbledon and on Friday both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were able to win in straight sets to earn their place on Centre Court on Sunday.

The World Number 1 will also be on the line when Alcaraz and Djokovic face off, but the biggest prize is going to be the Wimbledon title as the young Spaniard tries to knock off a dominant SW19 Champion.

Before that we have the Ladies Final on Saturday and the horrible conditions in London could potentially make things very difficult.

However, I am assuming the rain in the area will mean the Final is played under the roof on Centre Court and that will only be good news for Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur. Neither player will want to be playing through the extremely gusty winds that have been forecasted through the day, which would just add to the pressures that they will be feeling as both look to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Marketa Vondrousova-Ons Jabeur over 5.5 match breaks: Making three Grand Slam Finals in the last five events played will have placed Ons Jabeur amongst the best players on the WTA Tour. For herself, losing the first two of those Slam Finals will have stung and Jabeur may not really believe she belongs alongside the very best players on the Tour if she is not able to become a Grand Slam Champion.

She would have entered the Wimbledon Final as a narrow favourite twelve months ago, but was the underdog at the US Open a couple of months later when going down to Iga Swiatek. This time Ons Jabeur is going to be a significant favourite in the Final on Saturday as she prepares to take on Marketa Vondrousova.

Like her opponent, Marketa Vondrousova is a former Grand Slam Finalist and ended up being well beaten by Ashleigh Barty at the 2021 French Open. This is only the third time since that Final that Vondrousova has made it through to the second week at a Slam, but the Czech player has been in strong form in the tournament and will have to use that previous experience to help her in this first Wimbledon Final.

Marketa Vondrousova has struggled in Finals in her relatively young career having lost four of the five she has played, including losing the Olympic Games Gold Medal match. It has now been six years since an 18 year old Vondrousova won her only Singles title, but being the underdog could help her in this match up.

The lefty can also look back at this calendar year and note that she holds two wins over Ons Jabeur- one of those was at Indian Wells, but perhaps more importantly is the fact that Marketa Vondrousova was able to beat Jabeur at the Australian Open so has shown she can win under Grand Slam pressure.

Both of those wins were in strong performances from Marketa Vondrousova, but the grass is definitely the domain of Ons Jabeur, who has beaten this opponent on this surface in 2021.

After wins over Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, Ons Jabeur has to make sure she does not feel like she has one hand on the title and focus on the match. It is going to be much different compared with her last three matches against some of the big hitting players on the WTA Tour and a crafty, clever player like Bianca Andreescu almost beat Jabeur earlier in the tournament.

She is facing another one of those in Vondrousova who can use slices and is willing to get to the net, while also possessing some decent pop off the ground. The tactics will have to be different from Ons Jabeur and it is unlikely that she will benefit from as many unforced errors from Marketa Vondrousova as the likes of Petra Kvitova and Sabalenka were donating.

The mental side of the match is harder to call and you have to believe there will be nerves on both sides of the net, while I think both Vondrousova and Jabeur are happier returning than serving. With the nerves, this does feel like a match that will see plenty of breaks of serve and certainly more than anticipated by the layers.

In the two matches played between these players this year, there have been a total of twenty-one breaks of serve in the forty-eight service games played. Both of those have been on the hard courts and the feeling is that the grass should play a bit faster to aid the servers, but there have been at least nine breaks of serve in each of the last three matches played by Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon.

The Semi Final involving Ons Jabeur only had four breaks of serve, but the previous two matches saw seven breaks of serve each time and the returning numbers of Marketa Vondrousova have been every effective.

The underdog should be able to make this a competitive Final, even through the nerves, and the last two Wimbledon Finals have seen at least three sets needed. Despite the extra experience, Ons Jabeur is under plenty of pressure too considering the expectation that will be on her shoulders and the Tunisian making no secret of wanting to win major titles.

Another long match for Ons Jabeur may not be a big surprise either and there may be a few swings in momentum within the Final as long as Marketa Vondrousova can stay on top of the obvious nerves she will be dealing with on the day.

MY PICK: Marketa Vondrousova-Ons Jabeur Over 5.5 Match Breaks @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 57-55, - 9.94 Units (224 Units Staked, - 4.44% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Picks 2019- Gentlemen's Final (July 14th)

Simona Halep is the new Wimbledon Champion and I have to say it has got to be close to the best performance of her career when dismissing Serena Williams as comprehensively as she did.

I have always had a lot of time for Halep who works hard around the court, but I was not convinced she could find her best tennis on the grass to beat Williams. I was proven more than a little wrong as the Romanian showed her consistency and ability to play defensive tennis too much for Williams to cope with who remains a Grand Slam behind Margaret Court in terms of all time Grand Slam titles won.

The pressure has to be growing on Williams to try and get up to Court's twenty-four Slams and Wimbledon might have been her best chance to do that in 2019. She is going to be entering the top hard court events in the build up to the US Open, but she has not won the title in New York since 2014 and I do think women's tennis is competitive enough at the top to make it very hard for Serena Williams to win the remaining Grand Slam event of the 2019 season.

Serena Williams has struggled to play the very best players on the Tour and some of the aura around her has dissipated with injury and failure to win a Grand Slam since the 2017 Australian Open beginning to add up. I would not be surprised to see Williams as the favourite to win at Flushing Meadows, but I wouldn't be rushing out to back her at this stage either.


On Sunday we head into the Gentlemen's Final to wrap up Wimbledon 2019, although general sports fans are spoilt for choice on the day. The Cricket World Cup Final and the British Grand Prix are underway at the same time as the men's Final at Wimbledon, but the fact we have Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer involved should bring in a few casuals too.

In this day and age, many will have secondary viewing options on the day with laptops and tablets able to stream some of the events, but it isn't an ideal situation for any of the organisers. Twelve months ago the Wimbledon men's Final clashed with the World Cup Final so it is what it is.


Below you can read my Pick from the Wimbledon Final as well as the updated Wimbledon totals.


Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer over 39.5 games: We got to see another high quality match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final on Friday, but it was not quite good enough for my selection of over 39.5 games. The total missed by one game and that was much to do with the 6-1 set secured by Rafael Nadal in the second set, while he did have a break point in the final game that would have been enough to cover the total games line if he had converted it.

Thankfully on the same day Novak Djokovic had already won his Semi Final in four sets over Roberto Bautista Agut which ensured a profit for the day.

The final match to be played at Wimbledon 2019 in the Singles tournament is the Gentlemen's Final between Djokovic and Federer and they have met three previous times on the grass courts of SW19. Novak Djokovic leads that head to head 2-1, while he is also 9-6 ahead when it comes to Grand Slam meetings between these players, but Federer is playing with some serious confidence now after coming through a sticky period in the middle of his Semi Final.

A strong serving day from the former World Number 1 will put the current World Number 1 and defending Champion Novak Djokovic under some serious pressure. Everyone acknowledges the very strong returning that the Serb can produce at his best, but on this surface an aggressive performance from Roger Federer will be well rewarded.

He will have to be as aggressive as he was against Nadal, and Federer can't be worried about getting things wrong because a defensive performance is one that Novak Djokovic will exploit. In the tournament Roger Federer's serving numbers have been very impressive and winning 70% of service points against Rafael Nadal are some eye-catching numbers.

Roger Federer was broken twice by Nadal, but both in the second set and that is also an indication of how well he had been serving on the day. The service numbers have been very consistent on the grass over the last three years and while there has been an element of decline on the return, the serve is also working to build pressure on opponent's who will know it is difficult to recover being a break down against Federer.

The truth is that Novak Djokovic's service numbers have been very consistent too over the same period and being the defending Wimbledon Champion means he is going to be mentally much better prepared for the surface than Rafael Nadal. It has been a few years since Nadal has reached the Wimbledon Final so perhaps he was mentally struggling in the big moments, but that isn't going to be the case for Djokovic who has kept his strong serving together through this tournament and over the last three years on the grass courts.

His returning is the more consistent of the two players, but Federer might take risks in this one to look to take this to Djokovic. Even with that in mind I do think the right player is being favoured, although I am not going to take on underdog Federer in this one.

I think it is unlikely that Novak Djokovic wins or loses this in three sets and so I am going back to the market I used for the Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal Semi Final. With a returner as capable as Djokovic there is a chance he could secure a set like Nadal did, but the serving of both players and the likely aggressive approach from Roger Federer should mean we get four sets that go relatively deep.

In their three Wimbledon matches, Novak Djokovic has held 89% of his service games compared with Roger Federer at 86%. All three have gone at least four sets with one of them going the distance, so I am anticipating a potential tie-breaker or two with the way the two have been able to serve so far in the tournament and through the recent years on the grass. In the last two matches between these two on the grass, we have seen at least two tie-breakers played each time and I am going to look for the two players to combine for enough games to cover this line.

Hopefully we do get to see a quality Final. I am expecting to see some very good tennis played considering the form of both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at Wimbledon over the last two weeks and my selection for the final is not taking a position on either player, but on the match going beyond three sets and giving us four competitive sets at the least.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 55-41, + 21.44 Units (191 Units Staked, + 11.23% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2019- Ladies Final (July 13th)

The Ladies Final will be the main event on the second Saturday of Wimbledon 2019 with just two days left of the tournament.

Before I get onto my Pick from the match between Serena Williams and Simona Halep, I just wanted to say a few words about the fantastic Roger Federer win over Rafael Nadal.

Two unbelievably great players who are going down as legends of the sport put on a showcase, especially across sets three and four and I think this is an era that is only going to see people's admiration for it grow once the likes of Federer and Nadal hang up their racquets for the final time.

I still can't quite believe these two are still playing at the level they are and we really have been blessed to have seen this rivalry between Nadal and Federer and adding Novak Djokovic to the mix. Three all time greats in one era has blessed the fans, but I do worry about the state of men's tennis when these three players retire.

There are some talented players coming up through the Ranks, but I would love to see some of them make a breakthrough and win a big Slam while the big three are playing some of their best tennis. We had a passing of the torch moment when Pete Sampras was beaten by Roger Federer at Wimbledon in 2001, but it did take two years before Federer was able to win his first Grand Slam.

The player most likely in a position to do that looks to be Stefanos Tsitsipas but it was telling that the youngster admitted how far he has to go after his early loss at Wimbledon. With that in mind I would say appreciate what we have with Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal because men's tennis could easily hit the kind of void at the top that the women's game has had in the last eighteen months.


Friday proved to be a profitable day, but only a one-sided second set between Nadal and Federer prevented the total games being surpassed. Even at the very end of the match a break point for the Spaniard could have been converted which would have seen the total games line beaten, but thankfully Novak Djokovic had already won his match in four sets to secure the profit for the day.

With two Singles matches left to go, Wimbledon 2019 is going to be a very successful tournament for the Tennis Picks, but I would like to end with two winners of course.

Hopefully there will be too very good Finals to come for the neutrals too, especially to give this Grand Slam the kind of matches that can make it a somewhat memorable tournament.


Serena Williams-Simona Halep three sets played: There is some pressure on Serena Williams in the Wimbledon Final as she is looking to tie Margaret Court's Singles Grand Slam record, but she is the favourite to win the title at SW19. That isn't taking away from Simona Halep's tournament, but Serena Williams is one of the best grass court players of all time and I think it is hard to look past her.

The American has played pretty well throughout the tournament and she looks to have been at a higher level than Halep, although the latter has been playing much better in the second week than she did in the first. Peaking towards the Final is very important for players, but Halep is going to need to serve at a very high level to prevent Williams from teeing off on the return as she did in her Semi Final win over Barbora Strycova in the Semi Final.

Serena Williams has been returning very well, but that has been an important part of the success that Simona Halep has had in the tournament too. It is going to be a test to get into the Williams service games when you think of the power that shot comes with, but Halep has to find a way to do that and at least make sure she is not under immense pressure to try and hold onto a serve that can be vulnerable.

Bigger shots and heavier groundstrokes will come from the Williams racquet, but Simona Halep has to be prepared to dig in and play strong defence. Angelique Kerber was able to do that twelve months and turn the rallies in her favour and Halep has to believe the longer she keeps Williams out on the court the better it will be for her chances of upsetting the odds.

Simona Halep also has to overcome the mental blockage of facing Williams considering she has lost nine of the previous ten matches against her. The last of those came at the Australian Open back in January and their previous matches have shown that Williams has been far too strong on both the serve and return for Halep to cope with.

Their match in Melbourne was much closer and their matches at Grand Slams have been competitive with all three previous matches at this level needing three sets to decide them. I do think Simona Halep has been playing well enough to push Serena Williams in this one too, although I do think it will be difficult for her to get over the line when we get down to the business end of the match.

It is possible for Serena Williams to blow through this match as she did in her Semi Final, but I believe Simona Halep is going to offer more resistance. If the return is working to the level it can, Halep can win a set here and I do think she will get very close in a third set to win the match. I am not sure Williams' power can be withstood fo a straight sets win though and I am going to look for this match to follow the path of the previous Grand Slam matches between these players and need to go the distance.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams-Simona Halep Total Sets- Three @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 55-40, + 23.44 Units (189 Units Staked, + 12.40% Yield)

Wimbledon Day 13 Picks 2013- Men's Final (July 7th)

After a couple of weeks full of surprises and some fabulous tennis, no more so than the Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro, this is the Men's Final that everyone would have wanted to see.

Britain's Andy Murray will get his second crack at winning the Wimbledon title that has eluded British Men for over 75 years, but he faces the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic in what looks a cracking match.

Unlike the Woman's Final, both of these players are very secure in their game and are used to playing the biggest matches so it would be more than a surprise if the match is decided because one of them are too nervous to perform as Sabine Lisicki was.

These two players will know each other very well as they have played one another since they were kids and have already had 18 professional matches against one another. Surprisingly, as the top two players in the World Rankings, these two players have only met once this season when Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in four sets at the Australian Open.

Andy Murray will have his supporters as he has won two tournaments in a row on the grass going back to last year and will know more about the pressure having played in a Wimbledon Final last year and also having won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open last September, beating this same opponent in five sets.

However, I was adamant that Murray received the benefit of playing his Semi Final first at Flushing Meadows, which has proven to be a difference maker in the Final there over the last few years. Novak Djokovic is 3-0 in Grand Slam matches against Murray outside of that Final at the US Open, although all of those matches have been played at the Australian Open.

I know Murray beat Djokovic at the Olympic Games in a best of three match on the grass courts last summer, but like a lot of their matches, it was much closer than the straight sets victory for Murray would indicate.


At the start of the tournament, I picked Novak Djokovic to win this tournament and I won't change my mind now. He has looked like a man that has wanted to right what he felt was the wrong of failing to win the French Open and I just have a little more faith in his game at the crunch times compared with Andy Murray's. The second serve is the key shot for both of these players and I expect Djokovic to secure more points on his own than Murray will when it comes to his second serve and that could prove to be the difference on the day.

Both players will have their time dominating the match and the mental fatigue could be a factor as the hours tick on, but I like Djokovic on that level too so will stick with my pre-tournament pick in this one.


The match should be closely contested, but the first pick I will make from this one is Novak Djokovic to win 3-1 in sets. I can see the first two sets being really close and split between the players, but Djokovic has shown the ability to move away from Murray in big matches and that could be the case again.

The last four matches between these players has seen both men win at least one set and I would be surprised if either is to win this one in straight sets. I just have a little more belief in the mental ability of Djokovic to overcome the moments of crisis and come through in four sets.


I also think it could be worth backing Andy Murray over 2.5 double faults- while Murray has got a very high percentage of first serves in during his last two matches, he might be forced to go for a bit more against one of the best returners of all time in the Men's game. There is little doubt that Murray's second serve is one of the weakest shots in his game and if he is forced to push on those, which could happen if Djokovic starts getting a read on that ball, then there is every chance Murray would hand over a few cheap points.

Murray has had 13 double faults in the last four matches against Djokovic and we have seen him drop sets twice in his last two matches with a double fault against far less effective returners than the World Number 1 and the pressure that he can apply.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Over 2.5 Double Faults @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-15, + 16.02 Units (70 Units Staked, + 22.89% Yield)

Wimbledon Day 12 Picks 2013- Women's Final (July 6th)

The Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro will go down as one of the best matches I have ever seen on a tennis court, right up there with the two Finals played by Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on this court.

The ebbs and flows were fascinating and Del Potro will have won a lot more fans with the courage and strength of character he displayed, but it won't have surprised his long-term fans as he showed considerable toughness throughout his career. I have seen Del Potro play some stunning matches against the likes of Roger Federer in the past, but he admitted himself that he feels he played the best match of his career in this one. If he can replicate that kind of performance in two months time, Del Potro may just be able to add to his Grand Slam that was won at the US Open when he returns to Flushing Meadows.


The wins for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have set up a mouth-watering Final on Sunday in the Men's tournament, but first we will have the Women's Final between Sabine Lisicki and Marion Bartoli. Neither of those players were expected reach the Final at the start of the tournament and I don't think either will have too many better chances to win a Grand Slam title in their career.

My only hope for this Final is that it is one that isn't hindered by the nerves that both players will feel in this one- Bartoli has the experience of playing in the Final here in the past, while Lisicki has the big serve and groundstrokes that can see her take the racquet out of anyone's hands.


Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 games v Marion Bartoli: I really was torn between these players because I feel Sabine Lisicki has the game to dominate the points on this surface, but Marion Bartoli is certainly the more consistent.

Lisicki does blow hot and cold and that was seen in the Semi Final win over Agnieszka Radwanska when the German looked down and out in the third set. That fightback though may just have hardened her enough to win this tournament as long as she can hold her nerves and not think too much about what she has on the line.

I expect her to be able to win points a little easier than her opponent, particularly on serve and that could prove to be the ultimate difference between the players on the day.

Marion Bartoli's strength is she plays the same consistency of tennis throughout a match... There won't be the same fluctuations in her level of play as Lisicki can be prone to have a real drop in level at times. However, Bartoli could be under pressure by the weight of shot that Lisicki can generate and she uses the same pace of first and second serve which could help the German build up her rhythm on the return of serve.

It was Bartoli that won the first match between the two players, here at Wimbledon in 2008, but she has lost the last three matches. That run includes a three set defeat at Wimbledon two years ago.

I am expecting Lisicki to just force the pressure with her return of serve and also to come through her own service games a little more comfortably and that could lead to a 64, 63 win for the German player and her first Grand Slam title.


MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-14, + 18.02 Units (68 Units Staked, + 26.50% Yield)

Wimbledon Day 13 Picks - Men's Final (July 8th 2012)

I am going to have a full recap of the Wimbledon event after this one is completed tomorrow, so I will use this post to solely make my pick for the Men's Final.

Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.

If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.

Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.

Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.

The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.

The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.

Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.

Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)