Wimbledon Day 12 Picks 2013- Women's Final (July 6th)

The Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro will go down as one of the best matches I have ever seen on a tennis court, right up there with the two Finals played by Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on this court.

The ebbs and flows were fascinating and Del Potro will have won a lot more fans with the courage and strength of character he displayed, but it won't have surprised his long-term fans as he showed considerable toughness throughout his career. I have seen Del Potro play some stunning matches against the likes of Roger Federer in the past, but he admitted himself that he feels he played the best match of his career in this one. If he can replicate that kind of performance in two months time, Del Potro may just be able to add to his Grand Slam that was won at the US Open when he returns to Flushing Meadows.


The wins for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have set up a mouth-watering Final on Sunday in the Men's tournament, but first we will have the Women's Final between Sabine Lisicki and Marion Bartoli. Neither of those players were expected reach the Final at the start of the tournament and I don't think either will have too many better chances to win a Grand Slam title in their career.

My only hope for this Final is that it is one that isn't hindered by the nerves that both players will feel in this one- Bartoli has the experience of playing in the Final here in the past, while Lisicki has the big serve and groundstrokes that can see her take the racquet out of anyone's hands.


Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 games v Marion Bartoli: I really was torn between these players because I feel Sabine Lisicki has the game to dominate the points on this surface, but Marion Bartoli is certainly the more consistent.

Lisicki does blow hot and cold and that was seen in the Semi Final win over Agnieszka Radwanska when the German looked down and out in the third set. That fightback though may just have hardened her enough to win this tournament as long as she can hold her nerves and not think too much about what she has on the line.

I expect her to be able to win points a little easier than her opponent, particularly on serve and that could prove to be the ultimate difference between the players on the day.

Marion Bartoli's strength is she plays the same consistency of tennis throughout a match... There won't be the same fluctuations in her level of play as Lisicki can be prone to have a real drop in level at times. However, Bartoli could be under pressure by the weight of shot that Lisicki can generate and she uses the same pace of first and second serve which could help the German build up her rhythm on the return of serve.

It was Bartoli that won the first match between the two players, here at Wimbledon in 2008, but she has lost the last three matches. That run includes a three set defeat at Wimbledon two years ago.

I am expecting Lisicki to just force the pressure with her return of serve and also to come through her own service games a little more comfortably and that could lead to a 64, 63 win for the German player and her first Grand Slam title.


MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 22-14, + 18.02 Units (68 Units Staked, + 26.50% Yield)

US Open Day 2 Picks

Day 1 turned out to be a very solid start to the tournament for followers of the picks as all 3 came in for a profit.

We also saw Petra Kvitova become the biggest casualty as she was beaten in straight sets in her match, while there were plenty of questions raised about Maria Sharapova who struggled in her 3 set win over Heather Watson.

On to Day 2 Picks:

Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games vs Alona Bondarenko: This is a fairly big spread to cover, but I think the German who made such an impact at Wimbledon will be able to do so on her current form.

Lisicki won in Dallas last week and she didn't lose more than 3 games in any of her 5 straight set victories. She even beat Kateryna Bondarenka, Alona's sister during that run.

Alona Bondarenko missed a large chunk of the early part of the season, and she has not been in the best of form recently with easy defeats at the hands of Serena Williams and Marion Bartoli.

Bondarenko won their only previous meeting her at the US Open in 2008 but if Lisicki is in form off the bat, I can see her coming through this match with a 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and cover the spread.


Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Sara Errani and Elena Baltacha vs Jamie Hampton: Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open Champion, but she has not been in the greatest form having lost early in Toronto and New Haven during the Summer tournaments. However, she plays an opponent who has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and has lost all 3 previous meetings against the Russian.

Elena Baltacha faces a young opponent and should still have enough to see her off for the 2nd time in a Grand Slam this season. The British player is not the most reliable of players to back, especially considering she has a losing record on the year, but she did reach the 2nd round here in 2010 and faces an inexperienced player.

Hampton has played a couple of tournaments since the French Open, losing in a Final of a Challenger event held in Vancouver and being knocked out at the qualifying stage for Dallas last week. She will receive plenty of support from the crowd being an American, but I think Baltacha may be just a little too consistent and could win this in 3 sets, as she did in Australia.


Double; Juan Ignacio Chela vs Marinko Matosevic and Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah: Juan Ignacio Chela is in the twilight of his career but I still think he should be good enough to see off his Australian challenger today.

Chela does come into this match on a 3 match losing run, but he already beat Matosevic at Wimbledon in June and does play an opponent that has won just 3 of his 12 hard court matches at this level in 2 seasons.

Matosevic has not played since losing in the qualifiers for Montreal, but defeats to the likes of Alex Bogomolov, Yen-Hsun Lu and Clement Reix in recent weeks suggest Chela should be too strong.

Nicolas Mahut should get plenty of support as he is a well known figure in the States after THAT match with John Isner at Wimbledon 2010. He is another player that is coming to the end of his career, but his serve-volley style could cause plenty of problems for his opponent.

Robert Farah may have an edge considering he qualified for this event, but this will be only his 2nd match at this level and he has not pulled up trees on the Challenger circuit so I think Mahut will be too good for him, even if it takes 4 or 5 sets.


Ernests Gulbis vs Mikhail Youzhny: I am picking the underdog in this match because I think the odds are the wrong way around.

Ernests Gulbis is one of the most talented, yet underachieving, players on the tour, but his recent win in LA had him pushing for more. Losses to Mardy Fish in Montreal and Ivan Dodig in Cincinnati can be forgiven (although the latter a lot less so), but he has a real chance against Mikhail Youzhny who has been struggling.

Youzhny has lost both his matches played on the hard courts this Summer, although he overcame similar form when reaching the US Open Semi Final last year.

Gulbis may have a mental edge in the match too, winning their last 2 meetings and I think that mental edge may help him win this match.


Fernando Verdasco to win 3-1 in sets vs Jarkko Nieminen: This is a pick I am making because while I think Verdasco will win the match, his mental lapses in recent matches makes me think he will drop at least one set against a player that will fight for every point.

Verdasco has talked about how much he enjoys the best of 5 set matches as it gives players more time to recover losing situations- I took that as meaning he can recover when he throws in one of his weird sets of tennis as he is prone to do.

Including last seasons US Open tournament, Verdasco has gone 10-4 in Grand Slam events; of those wins, Verdasco has only won 3 in straight sets.

Nieminen is not the player of the past, but he is still capable of playing some inspired tennis and pushing opponents in matches. He has lost in 4 sets in 2 of the 3 Grand Slams he played this season.

The players are 2-2 in previous meetings, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 they have played.


David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Igor Andreev: I have already picked David Ferrer to come out of this section of the draw, but I do think he is worth chancing on the spread considering his recent record against Andreev.

Ferrer has won their last 3 meetings, taking 7 sets and losing 1, including two big wins on a hard court in Dubai and a clay court in Buenos Aires.

Igor Andreev is a better player than his ranking suggests, but he doesn't seem to have the heart for the game and can quickly lose focus and belief when falling behind.

That kind of mentality is the last thing you would want to do against an opponent like Ferrer who will play every point like it is the last of the match and I think the Spaniard will first break his heart and then win with a bit to spare.


MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Baltacha @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela and Nicolas Mahut @ 2.46 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)


US Open Update: 3-0, + 5.99 Units

Wimbledon Day 10 Picks- Women's Semi Finals

The Men's Quarter Finals saw what could be one of the biggest surprises in recent Wimbledon history when Roger Federer lost from 2 sets up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

A lot of people are talking of this as being an 'end of an era' for Federer, but I still think the Swiss Master has a Grand Slam in him with the right kind of draw. Tsonga is one of these players that can be tough to knock off when he is playing his 'A' game and I think Federer was unfortunate to run into him in such form.

Tsonga played the big points well in the final 3 sets- just take a look at the games where he broke the Federer serve! Federer was also at 0-30 on the Tsonga serve on at least 4/5 occasions in the final 3 sets but could not manage to move on to a break point, another disappointment for the former World Number 1.

I was surprised to see how much Federer was still able to smile in his press conference and I do believe he will be right back up there when the US Open rolls around in August/September.


The loss for Federer also meant one of my outright picks, the top 4 making the Semi Finals, was also scuppered. However, on a brighter note, my pick for Rafael Nadal to win the Men's event has shortened considerably.


Thursday is the day the Women's event sets up the Final for Saturday. Both Semi Finals look interesting on paper so lets move on to Day 10 Picks:


Petra Kvitova to win vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has been on the brink of making a really big move on the tour in recent seasons and has now made her first Grand Slam Semi Final. However, Azarenka is in for one tough battle against Petra Kvitova.

Kvitova is clearly at home on the grass and she has come on leaps and bounds on the WTA Tour since reaching the Semi Final here last year. That result clearly gave her the belief that she can compete at this level and she is now having her best year and has moved into the World's top 8.

Kvitova reached the Final at Eastbourne in the lead up to Wimbledon and she has impressed me with the way she is controlling matches using her serve and heavy groundstrokes off both wings.

The Czech player has dropped just 1 set in the tournament, but she has not given up more than 3 games in any of her other sets competed.

Azarenka is also a big hitter, but it is a shame that she is more known for her very annoying noises she makes while hitting a shot rather than her skills on court. While she too has only dropped one set in this tournament, I do think Azarenka has shown mental frailties in the past and that could be a factor in this match.

Kvitova definitely has the more reliable serve, in my opinion, while both are capable of hitting big shots of the ground. The match could come down to which of the players is able to unleash their big shots first, and that is where Kvitova's serve could make the difference.

Azarenka and Kvitova have a 2-2 head to head, but it is the Czech who may have an additional edge there as she has won their last 2 meetings including at Wimbledon last year.


Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has had a brilliant tournament but I feel this is going to be a step too far for the Wild Card. The German has won 11 matches in a row on grass this year, dropping just 2 sets in those wins, but this match will clearly be her toughest challenge.

Lisicki does have a great first serve and will also look to move Maria Sharapova around the court with the use of the drop shot that hurt Marion Bartoli so much in the last Round. However, she has not had a lot of matches on the main tour before the grass court season and plays arguably the most in form player on the WTA Tour.

Sharapova could do nothing wrong in her win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday, but this will be a tougher test. The Russian will need to serve well and try to dominate the rallies with her heavy groundstrokes.

Sharapova has had few problems throughout this tournament and is yet to drop a set. She will be given further confidence from her 6-2, 6-0 crushing of Lisicki earlier this year in Miami and I think she feels this tournament is hers for the taking.

Both of the sets could be close, but ultimately I see Sharapova prevailing and going through to the Final in straight sets.


MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova win @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.81 Units (- 0.18 Units Day 9)