The Women's Champions was decided yesterday and I still can't quite believe that the score was 'only' 64 64 in favour of Serena Williams- it was by far the most one-sided match I had seen in some time that looked so close on the scoreboard.
To be perfectly honest, Williams did not return serve as effectively as she can and there were far too many unreturned serves, even off the second serve. Her break point conversion rate was poor and if I was watching that match without a scoreboard in front of me, I would have thought Serena had won 62 62.
Now we get to the final day of Roland Garros 2013 and that means it is time for the Men's Final. The weather forecast doesn't look the best and there is every chance that we may have to see the Final conclude on Monday for the second year in succession.
Both Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have no commitments next week so it won't affect other tournaments if that is the case, but I am sure Ferrer would rather get the match going today when the conditions are set to be cooler than it has been over the last week.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: The conditions have certainly favoured Rafael Nadal over the last week of the tournament here and even though he is now competing in his eighth Roland Garros Final, I am expecting some nerves on his part. The fact of the matter is that Nadal is playing his first Grand Slam since Wimbledon last June and he is going to be a little nervous being back in this position to win one of the big prizes in the tennis calender.
It will also be interesting to see how much the Semi Final has taken out of Nadal, although his fitness has never been in question in the past. I would look at his response to his five set epic against Fernando Verdasco in the 2009 Australian Open Semi Final when he went on and beat Roger Federer in five sets in the Final.
On the other hand, David Ferrer has made the most serene progress through the draw, yet to drop a set and also spending around six hours less time on court than his compatriot, but the match up against Nadal has not suited him much, especially on the clay courts.
However, in saying that, he has at least made the matches a little more competitive the last two times they have played on the clay courts, with Ferrer picking up a set in both of those matches. The problem for Ferrer is maintaining the level required to hang with Nadal for more than a couple of sets and he also has to remove memories of his crushing defeat here in the Semi Final twelve months ago.
On that occasion, Ferrer won just 5 games as Nadal completely obliterated his game, but I am expecting this one to be a little closer. The conditions should help Ferrer today, but Nadal has looked a man on a mission in the last week.
Nadal had fortune on his side in the final set against Novak Djokovic on Friday and I think he will ride that momentum to a 64, 62, 63 win.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-15, + 6.68 Units (66 Units Staked, + 10.12% Yield)
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Showing posts with label David Ferrer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Ferrer. Show all posts
Sunday, 9 June 2013
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
US Open Day 10 Picks
Unfortunately it looks like it is going to be a frustrating time for us tennis backers over the next week. Day 9 was cancelled as a whole as the rain showed no signs of abating, and the forecast for the rest of the week does not exactly bode well for the tournament.
I am almost sure the Men's Final will have to be played on a Monday for the 4th year in succession- for the first time in a long time, the US Open is going to be left behind by the other Grand Slams.
This has always been my favourite Grand Slam, but the decision to not create Arthur Ashe Stadium with a roof looks to be a terrible one considering the last few years rain.
Australian and London both have roofs for their main court, while Paris is due to have completed work on a roof by 2014, meaning New York will be the only Grand Slam without the benefit of playing regardless of the weather.
Things are not exactly helped with the decision NOT to put down 'ugly' covers over the courts which could speed up the chances of getting things going quicker than it takes right now.
The forecast for today suggests play will not start on time and the players are likely to be going on and off court for most of the day- the organisers will be desperate for the 4 remaining Men's 4th Round matches to be completed today and also hope at least 2 of the Women's Quarter Finals can be played.
The schedule also looks to be favouring Novak Djokovic, in my opinion, as he is due on 2nd on Arthur Ashe, and there is a good chance he could have booked a Semi Final spot while his rivals wait on their Quarter Final clashes.
Day 10 Picks:
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: If this match had occurred earlier in the tournament, I think Tipsarevic could have caused plenty of problems, but he looked to be running out of gas a little in his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last Round.
Tipsarevic is a player capable of pushing the very best players, but there may be a slight lack of belief mentally as he plays his compatriot knowing everything Djokovic has done this year.
I imagine the first set could be close, but I think Djokovic will end up breaking any belief Tipsarevic has by winning that set and then running away with the match.
The World Number 1 will want to get his match completed as quickly as possible so he has additional rest on some of his rivals and I expect he will come through 7-5, 6-3, 6-2.
Roger Federer to win 3-1 in sets vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I still have the belief that Roger Federer is capable of winning a Grand Slam, and this match could be the key to his success this year.
Everyone knows that Tsonga is capable of beating Federer, as he has proven in his last 2 meetings including that fabulous come from behind win at Wimbledon at this very stage.
We have also seen Federer beaten by the bigger hitting players on the tour over the last 18 months, with players like Robin Soderling, Tsonga and Tomas Berdych all recording wins over the former World Number 1.
However, I also know Federer had beaten Tsonga twice this season before the loss at Wimbledon, and that was actually due to a special performance from the Frenchman.
I think Tsonga is still more than capable of hitting through Federer to take a set, but he looked a little out of sorts against Mardy Fish in the last Round and looked certain to exit the tournament before a mental lapse from the American allowed him back in.
The potential for rain delays during their match may also favour Federer as Tsonga could be cooled off by breaks in play.
I feel a Federer win coming, 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Serena Williams did not play that well against Ana Ivanovic in the last Round, but was still far too good in a routine win. She admitted she didn't play her best and I expect her to come out firing in this one.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has proven in the past she can hang with Williams, although that came on a clay court, and I think this match will be very difficult for her. Williams has the better serve, is quicker and has better variation in her shots off the ground.
I expect that to bamboozle the Russian more often than not, and I think Serena will come through 6-3, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games (from Day 9)
John Isner (from Day 9)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 (from Day 9)
Sam Stosur (from Day 9)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
I am almost sure the Men's Final will have to be played on a Monday for the 4th year in succession- for the first time in a long time, the US Open is going to be left behind by the other Grand Slams.
This has always been my favourite Grand Slam, but the decision to not create Arthur Ashe Stadium with a roof looks to be a terrible one considering the last few years rain.
Australian and London both have roofs for their main court, while Paris is due to have completed work on a roof by 2014, meaning New York will be the only Grand Slam without the benefit of playing regardless of the weather.
Things are not exactly helped with the decision NOT to put down 'ugly' covers over the courts which could speed up the chances of getting things going quicker than it takes right now.
The forecast for today suggests play will not start on time and the players are likely to be going on and off court for most of the day- the organisers will be desperate for the 4 remaining Men's 4th Round matches to be completed today and also hope at least 2 of the Women's Quarter Finals can be played.
The schedule also looks to be favouring Novak Djokovic, in my opinion, as he is due on 2nd on Arthur Ashe, and there is a good chance he could have booked a Semi Final spot while his rivals wait on their Quarter Final clashes.
Day 10 Picks:
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: If this match had occurred earlier in the tournament, I think Tipsarevic could have caused plenty of problems, but he looked to be running out of gas a little in his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last Round.
Tipsarevic is a player capable of pushing the very best players, but there may be a slight lack of belief mentally as he plays his compatriot knowing everything Djokovic has done this year.
I imagine the first set could be close, but I think Djokovic will end up breaking any belief Tipsarevic has by winning that set and then running away with the match.
The World Number 1 will want to get his match completed as quickly as possible so he has additional rest on some of his rivals and I expect he will come through 7-5, 6-3, 6-2.
Roger Federer to win 3-1 in sets vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I still have the belief that Roger Federer is capable of winning a Grand Slam, and this match could be the key to his success this year.
Everyone knows that Tsonga is capable of beating Federer, as he has proven in his last 2 meetings including that fabulous come from behind win at Wimbledon at this very stage.
We have also seen Federer beaten by the bigger hitting players on the tour over the last 18 months, with players like Robin Soderling, Tsonga and Tomas Berdych all recording wins over the former World Number 1.
However, I also know Federer had beaten Tsonga twice this season before the loss at Wimbledon, and that was actually due to a special performance from the Frenchman.
I think Tsonga is still more than capable of hitting through Federer to take a set, but he looked a little out of sorts against Mardy Fish in the last Round and looked certain to exit the tournament before a mental lapse from the American allowed him back in.
The potential for rain delays during their match may also favour Federer as Tsonga could be cooled off by breaks in play.
I feel a Federer win coming, 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Serena Williams did not play that well against Ana Ivanovic in the last Round, but was still far too good in a routine win. She admitted she didn't play her best and I expect her to come out firing in this one.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has proven in the past she can hang with Williams, although that came on a clay court, and I think this match will be very difficult for her. Williams has the better serve, is quicker and has better variation in her shots off the ground.
I expect that to bamboozle the Russian more often than not, and I think Serena will come through 6-3, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games (from Day 9)
John Isner (from Day 9)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 (from Day 9)
Sam Stosur (from Day 9)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
Tuesday, 6 September 2011
US Open Day 9 Picks
The rain did finally begin falling yesterday, only half an hour after Roger Federer managed to book his place in the Quarter Final, and today's play looks to be affected completely.
According to reports, there will be steady rain the entire day and I think the tournament is in a bit of bother now as the forecast for the next few days does not exactly make me confident.
We have to expect a few stop-start matches with showers expected from tomorrow afternoon all the way through till Sunday.
The conditions could be a little reminiscent of the tournament last year as the wind was picking up too and it might be a physical examination of players, particularly the Men in the bottom half of the draw who are still in the 4th Round.
These are my Day 9 Picks, but don't be surprised if none of them are finished today:
Andy Murray - 8.5 games vs Donald Young: The flashy Donald Young has finally made a real impact at this level, after many years of expectations, but I think he is in for a tough time against Andy Murray, even though he beat the Brit at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Murray played brilliantly against Feliciano Lopez in the last Round and I expect he will end up frustrating Young on his way through to a straight sets win.
Young has the shot making ability to push Murray close for a set, but it is the World Number 4 that has the edge in almost all departments and I expect him to show that.
Murray may be pushed to a 6-4 first set win, but I expect him to get a couple of breaks in the last two sets and come through 6-2, 6-3 to cover the spread.
John Isner vs Gilles Simon: John Isner has enjoyed a wonderful Summer that will see him finally going back up the Rankings. There is no doubt he enjoys the American hard courts the best and I think the additional rest he is likely to get today will serve him well after playing a lot of tennis over the last 6 weeks.
Isner won in Winston Salem the week before the Open began, and he is likely to get plenty more free points on his own serve.
Simon was brilliant in dispatching Juan Martin Del Potro in the last Round, and he will be used to the fact that many serves he will be facing are unreturned, but he will feel confident he can at least trouble Isner.
However, the Frenchman is always liable to throwing in a bad service game in sets and that could cost him a Quarter Final place here as Isner is a wonderful front runner.
Simon is also only 11-12 in tie breaks this season, even including the 2 he won against Del Potro, and Isner may be able to punish him in those considering he is 32-19 in tie breakers this year.
I think the match could go 5 sets, but I think Isner's serve, coupled with the additional rest for his body, will be the last American standing at this years Open.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: This is scheduled to be the first night game and so the atmosphere will be electric IF the weather decides to make a drastic move away from Flushing Meadows.
David Ferrer has far too much consistency for Andy Roddick these days, and it is indicative from the head to head which is led by the Spaniard 5-3. In fact, he has won 4 of the last 5 matches between the players and Ferrer will not feel more pressure from the crowd than when he knocked off Roddick in straight sets in Austin, Texas in July.
Roddick has the edge in terms of serve, but Ferrer is the better returner, is definitely better off the ground on both wings and is faster. The Spaniard is super-consistent and I think he will keep the pressure on Roddick throughout the match.
I think Roddick is capable of pushing the match to 4 sets if he is serving well, especially considering Ferrer can sometimes throw in a poor service game, but once the dust settles, I think Ferrer will have come through, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Samantha Stosur vs Vera Zvonareva: I feel like I am always tipping Sam Stosur to win her matches, mainly because the layers continuously underestimate the gritty Australian, and the fact she keeps winning the picks for me.
Vera Zvonareva was Runner Up here last season, and she is favoured by the layers, but the fact is she is 7-2 down in the head to head with Stosur, losing the last SEVEN meetings.
Stosur has come back from a set down in her 2 wins over Zvonareva this season, and it just seems the added spin she plays with bamboozles the Russian.
I think Stosur is set as a bigger underdog due to the time she has spent on court, but she has shown some really good mental strength to overcome losing the 2nd set in her last 2 matches, and that is a department she holds a real edge over Zvonareva.
It could go 3 again between these two players, but the added rest Stosur is likely to get thanks to the weather could see the Aussie fighting through.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Stosur @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
According to reports, there will be steady rain the entire day and I think the tournament is in a bit of bother now as the forecast for the next few days does not exactly make me confident.
We have to expect a few stop-start matches with showers expected from tomorrow afternoon all the way through till Sunday.
The conditions could be a little reminiscent of the tournament last year as the wind was picking up too and it might be a physical examination of players, particularly the Men in the bottom half of the draw who are still in the 4th Round.
These are my Day 9 Picks, but don't be surprised if none of them are finished today:
Andy Murray - 8.5 games vs Donald Young: The flashy Donald Young has finally made a real impact at this level, after many years of expectations, but I think he is in for a tough time against Andy Murray, even though he beat the Brit at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Murray played brilliantly against Feliciano Lopez in the last Round and I expect he will end up frustrating Young on his way through to a straight sets win.
Young has the shot making ability to push Murray close for a set, but it is the World Number 4 that has the edge in almost all departments and I expect him to show that.
Murray may be pushed to a 6-4 first set win, but I expect him to get a couple of breaks in the last two sets and come through 6-2, 6-3 to cover the spread.
John Isner vs Gilles Simon: John Isner has enjoyed a wonderful Summer that will see him finally going back up the Rankings. There is no doubt he enjoys the American hard courts the best and I think the additional rest he is likely to get today will serve him well after playing a lot of tennis over the last 6 weeks.
Isner won in Winston Salem the week before the Open began, and he is likely to get plenty more free points on his own serve.
Simon was brilliant in dispatching Juan Martin Del Potro in the last Round, and he will be used to the fact that many serves he will be facing are unreturned, but he will feel confident he can at least trouble Isner.
However, the Frenchman is always liable to throwing in a bad service game in sets and that could cost him a Quarter Final place here as Isner is a wonderful front runner.
Simon is also only 11-12 in tie breaks this season, even including the 2 he won against Del Potro, and Isner may be able to punish him in those considering he is 32-19 in tie breakers this year.
I think the match could go 5 sets, but I think Isner's serve, coupled with the additional rest for his body, will be the last American standing at this years Open.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: This is scheduled to be the first night game and so the atmosphere will be electric IF the weather decides to make a drastic move away from Flushing Meadows.
David Ferrer has far too much consistency for Andy Roddick these days, and it is indicative from the head to head which is led by the Spaniard 5-3. In fact, he has won 4 of the last 5 matches between the players and Ferrer will not feel more pressure from the crowd than when he knocked off Roddick in straight sets in Austin, Texas in July.
Roddick has the edge in terms of serve, but Ferrer is the better returner, is definitely better off the ground on both wings and is faster. The Spaniard is super-consistent and I think he will keep the pressure on Roddick throughout the match.
I think Roddick is capable of pushing the match to 4 sets if he is serving well, especially considering Ferrer can sometimes throw in a poor service game, but once the dust settles, I think Ferrer will have come through, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Samantha Stosur vs Vera Zvonareva: I feel like I am always tipping Sam Stosur to win her matches, mainly because the layers continuously underestimate the gritty Australian, and the fact she keeps winning the picks for me.
Vera Zvonareva was Runner Up here last season, and she is favoured by the layers, but the fact is she is 7-2 down in the head to head with Stosur, losing the last SEVEN meetings.
Stosur has come back from a set down in her 2 wins over Zvonareva this season, and it just seems the added spin she plays with bamboozles the Russian.
I think Stosur is set as a bigger underdog due to the time she has spent on court, but she has shown some really good mental strength to overcome losing the 2nd set in her last 2 matches, and that is a department she holds a real edge over Zvonareva.
It could go 3 again between these two players, but the added rest Stosur is likely to get thanks to the weather could see the Aussie fighting through.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Stosur @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
Sunday, 4 September 2011
US Open Day 7 Picks
An interesting day yesterday as Serena Williams became a short priced favourite to win the Women's tournament and Roger Federer moved through after a fairly impressive win over Marin Cilic.
Novak Djokovic looks to be making easy progress through the draw, but may have a tougher time against Alexandr Dolgopolov than some may expect, while a match between Mardy Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round should be a classic.
The picks improved to 15-9 for the last 7 days and hopefully that trend can continue.
Day 7 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: David Nalbandian was one of the few players that would give both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal fits when he played them a few seasons ago, but he is clearly not the same player and I expect Nadal to roll.
The head to head is 2-2, with Nadal winning the last 2 matches including a comfortable win in Miami last season.
Nalbandian can push Nadal for a set, but his losses to Andy Murray, James Blake and Stanislas Wawrinka in the last 6 weeks shows he is still far short of matching it with the top 4 where he is in his career.
I expect Nadal to win 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Ferrer was my tip to come through this Quarter of the draw and I expect he will be far too good for the awkward Florian Mayer tonight.
Mayer had lost his only 2 matches on the US hard courts this Summer before coming through the first 2 Rounds here, but he has been very fortunate with the draw and now faces a battle hardened Ferrer who beat Igor Andreev and James Blake.
Ferrer leads the head to head 3-2, winning their last 3 matches and he has not lost a set in those including a destruction here at the US Open in 2007.
I expect Ferrer's consistency to break down Mayer, and come through with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win.
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau: I think Julien Benneteau has been overestimated in this match due to his excellent run at the Winston Salem Open last week, but that amount of tennis could catch up with him against Andy Roddick.
Roddick has looked in decent, if not spectacular, form in the tournament and his 3 wins last week at the Winston Salem Open will have gotten him in some shape. His serve will cause Benneteau problems and put the Frenchman under pressure on his own service games.
Roddick leads the head to head 3-1 but they have not played one another since 2008. In that time, I think Benneteau has regressed as a player and I expect the American to continue going forward.
I fancy a Roddick 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Both women have done very well to come through the draw to this 4th Round encounter, but it is Sam Stosur who has been showing better form over the last 6 weeks and I expect she will be too good for her Russian opponent tonight.
Stosur had a hard time against Nadia Petrova in the last Round due to the heavy hitting nature of her opponent, but Kirilenko is less likely to bludgeon her off court.
Stosur's serve should be the difference between the two players and I think she will increase her head to head advantage to 4-2 tonight.
I expect the Australian will come through 6-3, 6-4.
Vera Zvonareva vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has been in wonderful form over the last 2 weeks as she won a tournament in Dallas and has made easy progress through the draw here at Flushing Meadows, but I feel her run will come to an end against Vera Zvonareva.
Zvonareva enjoys playing on the hard courts and has also been in decent form of late. She also has won all 3 previous meetings with Lisicki, including in San Diego recently.
I expect the match will go 3 sets, as have all their previous meetings, but I think last year's Runner Up will still be standing at the end of a titanic battle.
Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets vs Gilles Simon: This is definitely going to be a closer match than some people may imagine because Gilles Simon's style of play gives Juan Martin Del Potro fits.
Just take a look at their head to head record- Simon won the first meeting in 3 sets in New Haven, Del Potro won in 5 here at the US Open in 2008 and then won in straight sets at Wimbledon in June (7-6, 7-6, 7-5) in a match that could easily have gone a lot longer.
The difference in the match will come down to the fact Del Potro gets plenty more free points on his serve, because I think Simon can hang around in rallies, and so I do expect the Argentine to get through.
I just wouldn't be that surprised if Simon manages to take a set off of him on the way as Del Potro wins 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.
Andy Murray to win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: These two players last met at Wimbledon in June in what was a routine straight sets win for Andy Murray but that was at a time when Feliciano Lopez was shattered after a long run in the tournament.
The Spaniard has been serving well in the tournament so far and usually plays some solid stuff on the hard courts with a big serve and good volleying skills.
He has only taken 1 set in 5 meetings against Andy Murray, whose strong returning game makes life a little awkward for Lopez, but I see him picking up his 2nd tonight as the British Number 1 has not been serving as well as he can.
I think the match will be close for 2 sets, which will be split between the players, before Murray's superior returning begins to tell on Lopez and he comes through 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 15-9, + 13.29 Units
Novak Djokovic looks to be making easy progress through the draw, but may have a tougher time against Alexandr Dolgopolov than some may expect, while a match between Mardy Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round should be a classic.
The picks improved to 15-9 for the last 7 days and hopefully that trend can continue.
Day 7 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: David Nalbandian was one of the few players that would give both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal fits when he played them a few seasons ago, but he is clearly not the same player and I expect Nadal to roll.
The head to head is 2-2, with Nadal winning the last 2 matches including a comfortable win in Miami last season.
Nalbandian can push Nadal for a set, but his losses to Andy Murray, James Blake and Stanislas Wawrinka in the last 6 weeks shows he is still far short of matching it with the top 4 where he is in his career.
I expect Nadal to win 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Ferrer was my tip to come through this Quarter of the draw and I expect he will be far too good for the awkward Florian Mayer tonight.
Mayer had lost his only 2 matches on the US hard courts this Summer before coming through the first 2 Rounds here, but he has been very fortunate with the draw and now faces a battle hardened Ferrer who beat Igor Andreev and James Blake.
Ferrer leads the head to head 3-2, winning their last 3 matches and he has not lost a set in those including a destruction here at the US Open in 2007.
I expect Ferrer's consistency to break down Mayer, and come through with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win.
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau: I think Julien Benneteau has been overestimated in this match due to his excellent run at the Winston Salem Open last week, but that amount of tennis could catch up with him against Andy Roddick.
Roddick has looked in decent, if not spectacular, form in the tournament and his 3 wins last week at the Winston Salem Open will have gotten him in some shape. His serve will cause Benneteau problems and put the Frenchman under pressure on his own service games.
Roddick leads the head to head 3-1 but they have not played one another since 2008. In that time, I think Benneteau has regressed as a player and I expect the American to continue going forward.
I fancy a Roddick 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Both women have done very well to come through the draw to this 4th Round encounter, but it is Sam Stosur who has been showing better form over the last 6 weeks and I expect she will be too good for her Russian opponent tonight.
Stosur had a hard time against Nadia Petrova in the last Round due to the heavy hitting nature of her opponent, but Kirilenko is less likely to bludgeon her off court.
Stosur's serve should be the difference between the two players and I think she will increase her head to head advantage to 4-2 tonight.
I expect the Australian will come through 6-3, 6-4.
Vera Zvonareva vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has been in wonderful form over the last 2 weeks as she won a tournament in Dallas and has made easy progress through the draw here at Flushing Meadows, but I feel her run will come to an end against Vera Zvonareva.
Zvonareva enjoys playing on the hard courts and has also been in decent form of late. She also has won all 3 previous meetings with Lisicki, including in San Diego recently.
I expect the match will go 3 sets, as have all their previous meetings, but I think last year's Runner Up will still be standing at the end of a titanic battle.
Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets vs Gilles Simon: This is definitely going to be a closer match than some people may imagine because Gilles Simon's style of play gives Juan Martin Del Potro fits.
Just take a look at their head to head record- Simon won the first meeting in 3 sets in New Haven, Del Potro won in 5 here at the US Open in 2008 and then won in straight sets at Wimbledon in June (7-6, 7-6, 7-5) in a match that could easily have gone a lot longer.
The difference in the match will come down to the fact Del Potro gets plenty more free points on his serve, because I think Simon can hang around in rallies, and so I do expect the Argentine to get through.
I just wouldn't be that surprised if Simon manages to take a set off of him on the way as Del Potro wins 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.
Andy Murray to win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: These two players last met at Wimbledon in June in what was a routine straight sets win for Andy Murray but that was at a time when Feliciano Lopez was shattered after a long run in the tournament.
The Spaniard has been serving well in the tournament so far and usually plays some solid stuff on the hard courts with a big serve and good volleying skills.
He has only taken 1 set in 5 meetings against Andy Murray, whose strong returning game makes life a little awkward for Lopez, but I see him picking up his 2nd tonight as the British Number 1 has not been serving as well as he can.
I think the match will be close for 2 sets, which will be split between the players, before Murray's superior returning begins to tell on Lopez and he comes through 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 15-9, + 13.29 Units
Friday, 2 September 2011
US Open Day 5 Picks
Day 4 was a really good day for me in all departments as all 4 picks came in as winners and Serena Williams and Roger Federer made serene progress through to the 3rd Round.
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
Tuesday, 30 August 2011
US Open Day 2 Picks
Day 1 turned out to be a very solid start to the tournament for followers of the picks as all 3 came in for a profit.
We also saw Petra Kvitova become the biggest casualty as she was beaten in straight sets in her match, while there were plenty of questions raised about Maria Sharapova who struggled in her 3 set win over Heather Watson.
On to Day 2 Picks:
Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games vs Alona Bondarenko: This is a fairly big spread to cover, but I think the German who made such an impact at Wimbledon will be able to do so on her current form.
Lisicki won in Dallas last week and she didn't lose more than 3 games in any of her 5 straight set victories. She even beat Kateryna Bondarenka, Alona's sister during that run.
Alona Bondarenko missed a large chunk of the early part of the season, and she has not been in the best of form recently with easy defeats at the hands of Serena Williams and Marion Bartoli.
Bondarenko won their only previous meeting her at the US Open in 2008 but if Lisicki is in form off the bat, I can see her coming through this match with a 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and cover the spread.
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Sara Errani and Elena Baltacha vs Jamie Hampton: Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open Champion, but she has not been in the greatest form having lost early in Toronto and New Haven during the Summer tournaments. However, she plays an opponent who has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and has lost all 3 previous meetings against the Russian.
Elena Baltacha faces a young opponent and should still have enough to see her off for the 2nd time in a Grand Slam this season. The British player is not the most reliable of players to back, especially considering she has a losing record on the year, but she did reach the 2nd round here in 2010 and faces an inexperienced player.
Hampton has played a couple of tournaments since the French Open, losing in a Final of a Challenger event held in Vancouver and being knocked out at the qualifying stage for Dallas last week. She will receive plenty of support from the crowd being an American, but I think Baltacha may be just a little too consistent and could win this in 3 sets, as she did in Australia.
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela vs Marinko Matosevic and Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah: Juan Ignacio Chela is in the twilight of his career but I still think he should be good enough to see off his Australian challenger today.
Chela does come into this match on a 3 match losing run, but he already beat Matosevic at Wimbledon in June and does play an opponent that has won just 3 of his 12 hard court matches at this level in 2 seasons.
Matosevic has not played since losing in the qualifiers for Montreal, but defeats to the likes of Alex Bogomolov, Yen-Hsun Lu and Clement Reix in recent weeks suggest Chela should be too strong.
Nicolas Mahut should get plenty of support as he is a well known figure in the States after THAT match with John Isner at Wimbledon 2010. He is another player that is coming to the end of his career, but his serve-volley style could cause plenty of problems for his opponent.
Robert Farah may have an edge considering he qualified for this event, but this will be only his 2nd match at this level and he has not pulled up trees on the Challenger circuit so I think Mahut will be too good for him, even if it takes 4 or 5 sets.
Ernests Gulbis vs Mikhail Youzhny: I am picking the underdog in this match because I think the odds are the wrong way around.
Ernests Gulbis is one of the most talented, yet underachieving, players on the tour, but his recent win in LA had him pushing for more. Losses to Mardy Fish in Montreal and Ivan Dodig in Cincinnati can be forgiven (although the latter a lot less so), but he has a real chance against Mikhail Youzhny who has been struggling.
Youzhny has lost both his matches played on the hard courts this Summer, although he overcame similar form when reaching the US Open Semi Final last year.
Gulbis may have a mental edge in the match too, winning their last 2 meetings and I think that mental edge may help him win this match.
Fernando Verdasco to win 3-1 in sets vs Jarkko Nieminen: This is a pick I am making because while I think Verdasco will win the match, his mental lapses in recent matches makes me think he will drop at least one set against a player that will fight for every point.
Verdasco has talked about how much he enjoys the best of 5 set matches as it gives players more time to recover losing situations- I took that as meaning he can recover when he throws in one of his weird sets of tennis as he is prone to do.
Including last seasons US Open tournament, Verdasco has gone 10-4 in Grand Slam events; of those wins, Verdasco has only won 3 in straight sets.
Nieminen is not the player of the past, but he is still capable of playing some inspired tennis and pushing opponents in matches. He has lost in 4 sets in 2 of the 3 Grand Slams he played this season.
The players are 2-2 in previous meetings, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 they have played.
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Igor Andreev: I have already picked David Ferrer to come out of this section of the draw, but I do think he is worth chancing on the spread considering his recent record against Andreev.
Ferrer has won their last 3 meetings, taking 7 sets and losing 1, including two big wins on a hard court in Dubai and a clay court in Buenos Aires.
Igor Andreev is a better player than his ranking suggests, but he doesn't seem to have the heart for the game and can quickly lose focus and belief when falling behind.
That kind of mentality is the last thing you would want to do against an opponent like Ferrer who will play every point like it is the last of the match and I think the Spaniard will first break his heart and then win with a bit to spare.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Baltacha @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela and Nicolas Mahut @ 2.46 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-0, + 5.99 Units
We also saw Petra Kvitova become the biggest casualty as she was beaten in straight sets in her match, while there were plenty of questions raised about Maria Sharapova who struggled in her 3 set win over Heather Watson.
On to Day 2 Picks:
Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games vs Alona Bondarenko: This is a fairly big spread to cover, but I think the German who made such an impact at Wimbledon will be able to do so on her current form.
Lisicki won in Dallas last week and she didn't lose more than 3 games in any of her 5 straight set victories. She even beat Kateryna Bondarenka, Alona's sister during that run.
Alona Bondarenko missed a large chunk of the early part of the season, and she has not been in the best of form recently with easy defeats at the hands of Serena Williams and Marion Bartoli.
Bondarenko won their only previous meeting her at the US Open in 2008 but if Lisicki is in form off the bat, I can see her coming through this match with a 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and cover the spread.
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Sara Errani and Elena Baltacha vs Jamie Hampton: Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open Champion, but she has not been in the greatest form having lost early in Toronto and New Haven during the Summer tournaments. However, she plays an opponent who has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and has lost all 3 previous meetings against the Russian.
Elena Baltacha faces a young opponent and should still have enough to see her off for the 2nd time in a Grand Slam this season. The British player is not the most reliable of players to back, especially considering she has a losing record on the year, but she did reach the 2nd round here in 2010 and faces an inexperienced player.
Hampton has played a couple of tournaments since the French Open, losing in a Final of a Challenger event held in Vancouver and being knocked out at the qualifying stage for Dallas last week. She will receive plenty of support from the crowd being an American, but I think Baltacha may be just a little too consistent and could win this in 3 sets, as she did in Australia.
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela vs Marinko Matosevic and Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah: Juan Ignacio Chela is in the twilight of his career but I still think he should be good enough to see off his Australian challenger today.
Chela does come into this match on a 3 match losing run, but he already beat Matosevic at Wimbledon in June and does play an opponent that has won just 3 of his 12 hard court matches at this level in 2 seasons.
Matosevic has not played since losing in the qualifiers for Montreal, but defeats to the likes of Alex Bogomolov, Yen-Hsun Lu and Clement Reix in recent weeks suggest Chela should be too strong.
Nicolas Mahut should get plenty of support as he is a well known figure in the States after THAT match with John Isner at Wimbledon 2010. He is another player that is coming to the end of his career, but his serve-volley style could cause plenty of problems for his opponent.
Robert Farah may have an edge considering he qualified for this event, but this will be only his 2nd match at this level and he has not pulled up trees on the Challenger circuit so I think Mahut will be too good for him, even if it takes 4 or 5 sets.
Ernests Gulbis vs Mikhail Youzhny: I am picking the underdog in this match because I think the odds are the wrong way around.
Ernests Gulbis is one of the most talented, yet underachieving, players on the tour, but his recent win in LA had him pushing for more. Losses to Mardy Fish in Montreal and Ivan Dodig in Cincinnati can be forgiven (although the latter a lot less so), but he has a real chance against Mikhail Youzhny who has been struggling.
Youzhny has lost both his matches played on the hard courts this Summer, although he overcame similar form when reaching the US Open Semi Final last year.
Gulbis may have a mental edge in the match too, winning their last 2 meetings and I think that mental edge may help him win this match.
Fernando Verdasco to win 3-1 in sets vs Jarkko Nieminen: This is a pick I am making because while I think Verdasco will win the match, his mental lapses in recent matches makes me think he will drop at least one set against a player that will fight for every point.
Verdasco has talked about how much he enjoys the best of 5 set matches as it gives players more time to recover losing situations- I took that as meaning he can recover when he throws in one of his weird sets of tennis as he is prone to do.
Including last seasons US Open tournament, Verdasco has gone 10-4 in Grand Slam events; of those wins, Verdasco has only won 3 in straight sets.
Nieminen is not the player of the past, but he is still capable of playing some inspired tennis and pushing opponents in matches. He has lost in 4 sets in 2 of the 3 Grand Slams he played this season.
The players are 2-2 in previous meetings, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 they have played.
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Igor Andreev: I have already picked David Ferrer to come out of this section of the draw, but I do think he is worth chancing on the spread considering his recent record against Andreev.
Ferrer has won their last 3 meetings, taking 7 sets and losing 1, including two big wins on a hard court in Dubai and a clay court in Buenos Aires.
Igor Andreev is a better player than his ranking suggests, but he doesn't seem to have the heart for the game and can quickly lose focus and belief when falling behind.
That kind of mentality is the last thing you would want to do against an opponent like Ferrer who will play every point like it is the last of the match and I think the Spaniard will first break his heart and then win with a bit to spare.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Baltacha @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela and Nicolas Mahut @ 2.46 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-0, + 5.99 Units
Sunday, 28 August 2011
US Open Tennis Outright Picks (Men's Tournament)
The final Grand Slam of the 2011 tennis season is due to start on Monday 29th August, but firstly I would I hope all those readers who live on the East Coast are safe from Hurricane Irene that has hit the coast over the last 24 hours.
Keep yourselves and your families safe.
With all the bad weather in the area, it is still not clear whether the tournament will open at the correct time, or whether Monday will be called off short, but there is much clearer skies forecast for Tuesday onwards, including far less windy conditions as we saw for much of the first 10 days of the tournament last season.
I was going to put both the Men's and Women's outright picks in the same post but realised how long it would be so have split them into two posts.
Men's Tournament
There isn't a much better place to start than in saying I will be very surprised if one of the top 4 players in the World do not win this tournament, even though there are some issues to address.
Novak Djokovic is the Number 1 seed and understandably the favourite to win the event considering he has lost 2 matches all year and holds 2 of the last Grand Slams in his locker. There was some concerns about his fitness following his retirement in Cincinnati, but he has said he needed a couple of days of rest and feels fine, and that is understandable considering the amount of tennis he had played in Montreal and Cinci in the 2 weeks before the injury.
Even if there are a few concerns, he has been handed a very comfortable opening couple of rounds, meaning he will not have to expend too much energy, in my opinion, moving through the early stages. The first 3 rounds pose him few problems, and I would expect him to get the better of Richard Gasquet in a potential 4th round match up.
The Quarter Final could see Djokovic meet Gael Monfils for the 3rd time in the last 3 tournaments, and the ease in which he dispatched him in Montreal following his mental ability to get through a tough match with him at Cincinnati means I would be more than surprised if Djokovic is not one of the Semi Finalists.
The bottom half of his section is headed by Roger Federer, playing his first Grand Slam in his 30's. The Swiss former World Number 1 is not the same player of yesteryear, but he still has the ability to go deep in tournaments regardless of his early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati. He has a very strong record at Flushing Meadows, having won 5 titles here in a row between 2004-2008, and it took a super effort from Djokovic to beat him last year in the Semi Finals.
Defeats to Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are troubling, especially considering the latter beat Federer from 2 sets down at Wimbledon. Tsonga is in the same quarter as Federer, but it is no guarantee that the enigmatic Frenchman reaches the Quarter Final to oppose Federer considering he too had been suffering slightly with an injury in the last 2 tournaments.
Tsonga will have to beat Fernando Verdasco in the 3rd round, a player that saves his best tennis for Grand Slams these days, and then faces a tough encounter with Mardy Fish in the 4th round.
That could all pave the way for Federer to reach the Semi Final as I think his path through to the Quarter Final seems straightforward and he could have plenty more in his tank than his opponent at that stage.
Fish remains the dark horse in this section as the top ranked American is not a household name and so can be overlooked by people studying the outright markets. However, the layers have cottoned on to the fact that Fish has performed exceptionally during this Summer swing and he looks a little short.
The bottom half of the draw is headed by defending Champion Rafael Nadal- the Spaniard has looked more than rusty in the last couple of tournaments, losing early in Montreal and looking a shadow of himself when struggling through to the Quarter Final in Cincinnati before being beaten by Fish.
He looked like a player to take on in the tournament, but the draw has given him so few problems that it is hard to see who will be the player to beat him in the early rounds. Ivan Ljubicic could cause a few problems in the 3rd round if his serve is on top form, but his lack of tennis over the Summer is a concern and so Nadal will be the big favourite.
Nadal is seeded to meet Mikhail Youzhny in the 4th round, but the Russian is not the same player that lost 1 game in 2 sets to Nadal in Chennai in 2008 and was comfortably beaten in the Semi Final last year by Nadal.
Andy Roddick and David Ferrer are potential Quarter Final opponents, and I believe it is the latter that may cause the most problems for his compatriot Nadal. Ferrer beat him in Australia at this stage in the first Grand Slam of the season and can also point at a 2007 4th Round win over Nadal as indications to his capability of producing a shock, especially if Nadal is still struggling as he was in Cincinnati.
Ferrer has a tough looking match with James Blake in the 2nd round, but I would fancy him to get through that as well as a likely 4th round meeting with Roddick or Nicolas Almagro.
Looking at this section, Ferrer looks the most likely player that can take advantage of any Nadal fitness/mental concerns and perhaps shock a few people by reaching his 2nd Grand Slam Semi Final of the year.
The final section of the draw looks one for Andy Murray to make a real impact and he has shown he is form by coming through the draw to win Cincinnati.
There are a couple of tricky early matches against the likes of Robin Haase and Feliciano Lopez in rounds 2 and 3 respectively, but I think both lack the balance of power and consistency required to beat the British Number 1 over 5 sets and his biggest threat to reaching the Quarter Final could come in the 4th round where he is seeded to meet Stanislas Wawrinka.
Murray fans will remember the name of the Swiss Number 2 as he was the man to end Murray's interest here in Flushing Meadows in 2010. However, Wawrinka has been in some really poor form over the last few months and he is ripe to be surprised by someone like Donald Young who he can meet in round 2.
IF Wawrinka does get through his early rounds, he has shown he can cause problems for Murray, their last 2 matches being at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, with both winning 1 match apiece and Wawrinka pushing Murray to 5 sets at Wimbledon.
The top half of the Quarter could be interesting with the likes of Robin Soderling, John Isner, Gilles Simon and another defending Champion Juan Martin Del Potro all involved. Del Potro is a very short price considering his early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati and I don't see how he can be backed as short as he is.
Soderling has had a couple of niggles meaning he has not played since winning on the clay at Bastad and that could cost him in his 3rd round match with, most likely, John Isner. The big serving American won at Winston Salem in the final tournament before this, and I think he may be ready to make a real impact in the tournament, although his fitness is always something that causes concern.
Del Potro may come through the Quarter Final as he has been handed a very straightforward start to the tournament and I expect him to be too strong for Simon as he was at Wimbledon.
Overall though, the Quarter looks like one that will belong to Andy Murray.
With the analysis of the draw completed above, I think there are a couple of plays worth making in the outright market. I am going to go against Novak Djokovic here as I think his price is far too short considering the issues he had with his shoulder and I think the person that will benefit the most is Roger Federer, a player who has shown how much he enjoys playing on the American hard courts at Flushing Meadows.
With the lack of truly big hitters in his section, Federer will feel confident about his ability to reach a Semi Final with Djokovic, and he is mentally in a strong place when he faces the Serb. It could be a Semi Final classic to rival the one they played in 2010 at the same stage.
Other picks that look worth chancing are Andy Murray and I don't think he could have too many complaints about his potential path to a Semi Final with my other pick, a surprising David Ferrer.
I think Ferrer could really make his mark in this tournament considering the draw and I think he has been underrated by the layers considering his efforts in beating Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick while playing for Spain in the Davis Cup in the week after Wimbledon.
Ferrer has shown he has the ability to beat the best, as shown when beating Nadal in Australia (Nadal had a few physical problems then too) and he looks grossly overpriced.
I will also back Ferrer to win his Quarter, and he does look vastly underrated at the prices there too.
MEN'S OUTRIGHT PICKS: Roger Federer @ 7.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray @ 6.00 BetFred (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win Quarter 4 @ 13.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer @ 176.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W) Pays at 0.5 odds if David Ferrer reaches the Final
Keep yourselves and your families safe.
With all the bad weather in the area, it is still not clear whether the tournament will open at the correct time, or whether Monday will be called off short, but there is much clearer skies forecast for Tuesday onwards, including far less windy conditions as we saw for much of the first 10 days of the tournament last season.
I was going to put both the Men's and Women's outright picks in the same post but realised how long it would be so have split them into two posts.
Men's Tournament
There isn't a much better place to start than in saying I will be very surprised if one of the top 4 players in the World do not win this tournament, even though there are some issues to address.
Novak Djokovic is the Number 1 seed and understandably the favourite to win the event considering he has lost 2 matches all year and holds 2 of the last Grand Slams in his locker. There was some concerns about his fitness following his retirement in Cincinnati, but he has said he needed a couple of days of rest and feels fine, and that is understandable considering the amount of tennis he had played in Montreal and Cinci in the 2 weeks before the injury.
Even if there are a few concerns, he has been handed a very comfortable opening couple of rounds, meaning he will not have to expend too much energy, in my opinion, moving through the early stages. The first 3 rounds pose him few problems, and I would expect him to get the better of Richard Gasquet in a potential 4th round match up.
The Quarter Final could see Djokovic meet Gael Monfils for the 3rd time in the last 3 tournaments, and the ease in which he dispatched him in Montreal following his mental ability to get through a tough match with him at Cincinnati means I would be more than surprised if Djokovic is not one of the Semi Finalists.
The bottom half of his section is headed by Roger Federer, playing his first Grand Slam in his 30's. The Swiss former World Number 1 is not the same player of yesteryear, but he still has the ability to go deep in tournaments regardless of his early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati. He has a very strong record at Flushing Meadows, having won 5 titles here in a row between 2004-2008, and it took a super effort from Djokovic to beat him last year in the Semi Finals.
Defeats to Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are troubling, especially considering the latter beat Federer from 2 sets down at Wimbledon. Tsonga is in the same quarter as Federer, but it is no guarantee that the enigmatic Frenchman reaches the Quarter Final to oppose Federer considering he too had been suffering slightly with an injury in the last 2 tournaments.
Tsonga will have to beat Fernando Verdasco in the 3rd round, a player that saves his best tennis for Grand Slams these days, and then faces a tough encounter with Mardy Fish in the 4th round.
That could all pave the way for Federer to reach the Semi Final as I think his path through to the Quarter Final seems straightforward and he could have plenty more in his tank than his opponent at that stage.
Fish remains the dark horse in this section as the top ranked American is not a household name and so can be overlooked by people studying the outright markets. However, the layers have cottoned on to the fact that Fish has performed exceptionally during this Summer swing and he looks a little short.
The bottom half of the draw is headed by defending Champion Rafael Nadal- the Spaniard has looked more than rusty in the last couple of tournaments, losing early in Montreal and looking a shadow of himself when struggling through to the Quarter Final in Cincinnati before being beaten by Fish.
He looked like a player to take on in the tournament, but the draw has given him so few problems that it is hard to see who will be the player to beat him in the early rounds. Ivan Ljubicic could cause a few problems in the 3rd round if his serve is on top form, but his lack of tennis over the Summer is a concern and so Nadal will be the big favourite.
Nadal is seeded to meet Mikhail Youzhny in the 4th round, but the Russian is not the same player that lost 1 game in 2 sets to Nadal in Chennai in 2008 and was comfortably beaten in the Semi Final last year by Nadal.
Andy Roddick and David Ferrer are potential Quarter Final opponents, and I believe it is the latter that may cause the most problems for his compatriot Nadal. Ferrer beat him in Australia at this stage in the first Grand Slam of the season and can also point at a 2007 4th Round win over Nadal as indications to his capability of producing a shock, especially if Nadal is still struggling as he was in Cincinnati.
Ferrer has a tough looking match with James Blake in the 2nd round, but I would fancy him to get through that as well as a likely 4th round meeting with Roddick or Nicolas Almagro.
Looking at this section, Ferrer looks the most likely player that can take advantage of any Nadal fitness/mental concerns and perhaps shock a few people by reaching his 2nd Grand Slam Semi Final of the year.
The final section of the draw looks one for Andy Murray to make a real impact and he has shown he is form by coming through the draw to win Cincinnati.
There are a couple of tricky early matches against the likes of Robin Haase and Feliciano Lopez in rounds 2 and 3 respectively, but I think both lack the balance of power and consistency required to beat the British Number 1 over 5 sets and his biggest threat to reaching the Quarter Final could come in the 4th round where he is seeded to meet Stanislas Wawrinka.
Murray fans will remember the name of the Swiss Number 2 as he was the man to end Murray's interest here in Flushing Meadows in 2010. However, Wawrinka has been in some really poor form over the last few months and he is ripe to be surprised by someone like Donald Young who he can meet in round 2.
IF Wawrinka does get through his early rounds, he has shown he can cause problems for Murray, their last 2 matches being at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, with both winning 1 match apiece and Wawrinka pushing Murray to 5 sets at Wimbledon.
The top half of the Quarter could be interesting with the likes of Robin Soderling, John Isner, Gilles Simon and another defending Champion Juan Martin Del Potro all involved. Del Potro is a very short price considering his early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati and I don't see how he can be backed as short as he is.
Soderling has had a couple of niggles meaning he has not played since winning on the clay at Bastad and that could cost him in his 3rd round match with, most likely, John Isner. The big serving American won at Winston Salem in the final tournament before this, and I think he may be ready to make a real impact in the tournament, although his fitness is always something that causes concern.
Del Potro may come through the Quarter Final as he has been handed a very straightforward start to the tournament and I expect him to be too strong for Simon as he was at Wimbledon.
Overall though, the Quarter looks like one that will belong to Andy Murray.
With the analysis of the draw completed above, I think there are a couple of plays worth making in the outright market. I am going to go against Novak Djokovic here as I think his price is far too short considering the issues he had with his shoulder and I think the person that will benefit the most is Roger Federer, a player who has shown how much he enjoys playing on the American hard courts at Flushing Meadows.
With the lack of truly big hitters in his section, Federer will feel confident about his ability to reach a Semi Final with Djokovic, and he is mentally in a strong place when he faces the Serb. It could be a Semi Final classic to rival the one they played in 2010 at the same stage.
Other picks that look worth chancing are Andy Murray and I don't think he could have too many complaints about his potential path to a Semi Final with my other pick, a surprising David Ferrer.
I think Ferrer could really make his mark in this tournament considering the draw and I think he has been underrated by the layers considering his efforts in beating Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick while playing for Spain in the Davis Cup in the week after Wimbledon.
Ferrer has shown he has the ability to beat the best, as shown when beating Nadal in Australia (Nadal had a few physical problems then too) and he looks grossly overpriced.
I will also back Ferrer to win his Quarter, and he does look vastly underrated at the prices there too.
MEN'S OUTRIGHT PICKS: Roger Federer @ 7.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray @ 6.00 BetFred (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win Quarter 4 @ 13.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer @ 176.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W) Pays at 0.5 odds if David Ferrer reaches the Final
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 18th Cincinnati
It was another topsy-turvy day yesterday that began terribly, but ended with lot of positives and profits.
Andy Murray looked impressive in dispatching David Nalbandian and that means both outright picks are alive this week. There is still a lot of tennis to be played before anything good comes from the outright picks, but it's been a longer adventure than last week when both exited the tournament at a very early stage.
On to the Picks:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This is a big chance for Andy Murray to get revenge for an embarrassing loss to Bogomolov earlier this year in Miami.
That loss came during a big slump in form for Murray after the Australian Open, but I think he is in better form now.
Bogomolov recorded another big win this season when beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday and he is enjoying his time here, coming through 5 Rounds to reach this stage.
I am a little concerned that Murray has too many lapses in his concentration, but I do expect the British Number 1 to move through in straight sets and I can see him pulling away in the second set to cover the spread.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: Rafael Nadal has beaten his Spanish compatriot in all 12 previous meetings and I don't think Verdasco is in the form to change that.
The closest Verdasco came to beating Nadal was in Australia in that Semi Final of 2009 when he pushed Nadal to the limits of his game, but Verdasco is far removed from that kind of form and the 2 sets he won that day are part of the 3 sets he has EVER won against Nadal.
I think Rafa is far too consistent for Verdasco, who is capable of throwing in nightmare service games, and I expect him to move through without too much fuss.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games vs Gilles Simon: David Ferrer is the ultimate competitor and I have a lot of respect for his dedication to his craft and his ability to get the absolute best from his ability- personally I think a lot of youngsters playing the game should look at Ferrer as an example of what hard work can reward.
Ferrer's lack of matches on the hard courts is a concern, but he plays Gilles Simon who also has not played too much hard court tennis this Summer.
I think Ferrer holds a big edge in the match up because the two players essentially have the same game, yet it is Ferrer who is just a little better in all departments.
Ferrer has won their 2 previous meetings, albeit back in 2007, and he lost just 5 games combined in winning in straight sets on each occasion... I think he will win in straight sets again tonight.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Gael Monfils has a very good record against Philipp Kohlschreiber and I expect he can continue that here.
My biggest concern is the fact that Monfils has been playing a lot of tennis in recent weeks, reaching the Final in Washington and the Quarter Final in Montreal last week, and he may be a little fatigued.
Kohlschreiber is making a surprise appearance at this stage as he was not expected to win his first 2 matches, but he had not been in great form on the hard courts this season and I think Monfils will be just too good for him again.
Daniela Hantuchova vs Marion Bartoli: I am not convinced the layers have this right by making Hantuchova the underdog in this match.
The Slovakian has a 4-1 head to head record against Bartoli and that includes 2 wins on the hard courts of the United States, the latest coming in San Diego last season.
Neither player has been in fantastic form of late, but I think Hantuchova will have the mental edge in the match and can come through, possibly in 3 sets.
Petra Kvitova vs Andrea Petkovic: A quick look at the results from Toronto will show Petkovic beat Kvitova in straight sets last week for the loss of just 3 games, but the match was a lot closer than that and I think the Wimbledon champion can overturn that result.
There has been an overreaction, in my opinion, from that result last week and they are now set as a pick 'em contest or with Kvitova as the slight favourite and I will have a go backing her to win.
The Czech player has not played a lot of tennis of late and struggled a little more against Chanelle Scheepers than I thought she would, but the match is on her racquet and if she can cut out some of the unforced errors, I think she can win.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.04 Units
Andy Murray looked impressive in dispatching David Nalbandian and that means both outright picks are alive this week. There is still a lot of tennis to be played before anything good comes from the outright picks, but it's been a longer adventure than last week when both exited the tournament at a very early stage.
On to the Picks:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This is a big chance for Andy Murray to get revenge for an embarrassing loss to Bogomolov earlier this year in Miami.
That loss came during a big slump in form for Murray after the Australian Open, but I think he is in better form now.
Bogomolov recorded another big win this season when beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday and he is enjoying his time here, coming through 5 Rounds to reach this stage.
I am a little concerned that Murray has too many lapses in his concentration, but I do expect the British Number 1 to move through in straight sets and I can see him pulling away in the second set to cover the spread.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: Rafael Nadal has beaten his Spanish compatriot in all 12 previous meetings and I don't think Verdasco is in the form to change that.
The closest Verdasco came to beating Nadal was in Australia in that Semi Final of 2009 when he pushed Nadal to the limits of his game, but Verdasco is far removed from that kind of form and the 2 sets he won that day are part of the 3 sets he has EVER won against Nadal.
I think Rafa is far too consistent for Verdasco, who is capable of throwing in nightmare service games, and I expect him to move through without too much fuss.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games vs Gilles Simon: David Ferrer is the ultimate competitor and I have a lot of respect for his dedication to his craft and his ability to get the absolute best from his ability- personally I think a lot of youngsters playing the game should look at Ferrer as an example of what hard work can reward.
Ferrer's lack of matches on the hard courts is a concern, but he plays Gilles Simon who also has not played too much hard court tennis this Summer.
I think Ferrer holds a big edge in the match up because the two players essentially have the same game, yet it is Ferrer who is just a little better in all departments.
Ferrer has won their 2 previous meetings, albeit back in 2007, and he lost just 5 games combined in winning in straight sets on each occasion... I think he will win in straight sets again tonight.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Gael Monfils has a very good record against Philipp Kohlschreiber and I expect he can continue that here.
My biggest concern is the fact that Monfils has been playing a lot of tennis in recent weeks, reaching the Final in Washington and the Quarter Final in Montreal last week, and he may be a little fatigued.
Kohlschreiber is making a surprise appearance at this stage as he was not expected to win his first 2 matches, but he had not been in great form on the hard courts this season and I think Monfils will be just too good for him again.
Daniela Hantuchova vs Marion Bartoli: I am not convinced the layers have this right by making Hantuchova the underdog in this match.
The Slovakian has a 4-1 head to head record against Bartoli and that includes 2 wins on the hard courts of the United States, the latest coming in San Diego last season.
Neither player has been in fantastic form of late, but I think Hantuchova will have the mental edge in the match and can come through, possibly in 3 sets.
Petra Kvitova vs Andrea Petkovic: A quick look at the results from Toronto will show Petkovic beat Kvitova in straight sets last week for the loss of just 3 games, but the match was a lot closer than that and I think the Wimbledon champion can overturn that result.
There has been an overreaction, in my opinion, from that result last week and they are now set as a pick 'em contest or with Kvitova as the slight favourite and I will have a go backing her to win.
The Czech player has not played a lot of tennis of late and struggled a little more against Chanelle Scheepers than I thought she would, but the match is on her racquet and if she can cut out some of the unforced errors, I think she can win.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.04 Units
Thursday, 14 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 14th
It was a much better day for me yesterday with Juan Monaco and Potito Starace both winning their matches, albeit making life much tougher for themselves than was likely required.
It has been tough picking in matches this week as a lot of the favourites have struggled. For example, in Stuttgart 6 of the 8 seeds fell before the 2nd Round and there are some big priced winners in that tournament.
That's not to say it is easy to pick these matches- some of the results could easily have gone another way if 1 or 2 points had landed differently, but the week has shown how tough it can be in the World of tennis to consistently pick winners.
I had felt my luck was all but out earlier in the week as players seemed to be crumbling without much notice in matches; the worst example was Igor Andreev losing a 3-0 lead in the final set against Diego Junqueira.
It didn't help my mood much to notice Junqueira won just 1 game against Robin Soderling tonight. That result just makes me wonder what Andreev was playing at in his match to blow a lead as badly as he did.
Now is not the time to complain though, not while one of my outright picks of the week is still alive and the loss from earlier in the week has been reduced somewhat.
On to the Days Picks:
Double- Juan Monaco vs Blaz Kavcic and Filippo Volandri vs Andreas Haider-Maurer: Juan Monaco had to dig deep to get through his match with Carlos Berlocq yesterday, but I am going to keep faith with the Argentine in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Blaz Kavcic has not really had the wins on clay courts previously to suggest he can beat a player of Monaco's calibre, but he can up his level for short bursts.
If Monaco can stay with him while Kavcic is on a high level of play, he should be able to take advantage of his dips and win through.
Filippo Volandri is a clay courter, but has really struggled to maintain the form that saw him beat Roger Federer in Rome in 2007. However, he should hold the mental edge over Andreas Haider-Maurer since he has 2 wins over him, both in straight sets, on clay courts this season.
Haider-Maurer took advantage of a favourable draw against Mikhail Kukushkin, but this is a much stiffer test and one he has failed to pass twice. I dont expect the Austrian to make it third time lucky.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games vs Pere Riba-Madrid: I was a little concerned with David Ferrer's state of mind after all the mental efforts it took to lead Spain to a Davis Cup win over the USA on Sunday. He has also had to travel from Texas to Sweden, but the extra day of rest could be crucial to his ability in this match.
Pere Riba-Madrid has not had the same impact on the main tour as he has had on the Challenger circuit and I see Ferrer's consistency causing him problems during this match.
Ferrer is a player that will give it his all if he does take part in a tournament and I expect he will come through 6-4, 6-2.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Mikhail Youzhny was excellent in his comfortable win over Phillip Petzschner in the last Round and I expect he will come out on top against the classy Juan Carlos Ferrero here.
Ferrero usually reserves his best tennis for the clay, but a lack of matches could seriously undermine him against a tough opponent like Youzhny.
This will only be Ferrero's 7th match since the US Open last September and I just feel Youzhny can grind him down.
The Russian is 1-2 against Ferrero in the head to heads, but his sole win came in 4 sets at the French Open and I think he can remain the highest seed left in Stuttgart.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Filippo Volandri @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.61 Units
It has been tough picking in matches this week as a lot of the favourites have struggled. For example, in Stuttgart 6 of the 8 seeds fell before the 2nd Round and there are some big priced winners in that tournament.
That's not to say it is easy to pick these matches- some of the results could easily have gone another way if 1 or 2 points had landed differently, but the week has shown how tough it can be in the World of tennis to consistently pick winners.
I had felt my luck was all but out earlier in the week as players seemed to be crumbling without much notice in matches; the worst example was Igor Andreev losing a 3-0 lead in the final set against Diego Junqueira.
It didn't help my mood much to notice Junqueira won just 1 game against Robin Soderling tonight. That result just makes me wonder what Andreev was playing at in his match to blow a lead as badly as he did.
Now is not the time to complain though, not while one of my outright picks of the week is still alive and the loss from earlier in the week has been reduced somewhat.
On to the Days Picks:
Double- Juan Monaco vs Blaz Kavcic and Filippo Volandri vs Andreas Haider-Maurer: Juan Monaco had to dig deep to get through his match with Carlos Berlocq yesterday, but I am going to keep faith with the Argentine in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Blaz Kavcic has not really had the wins on clay courts previously to suggest he can beat a player of Monaco's calibre, but he can up his level for short bursts.
If Monaco can stay with him while Kavcic is on a high level of play, he should be able to take advantage of his dips and win through.
Filippo Volandri is a clay courter, but has really struggled to maintain the form that saw him beat Roger Federer in Rome in 2007. However, he should hold the mental edge over Andreas Haider-Maurer since he has 2 wins over him, both in straight sets, on clay courts this season.
Haider-Maurer took advantage of a favourable draw against Mikhail Kukushkin, but this is a much stiffer test and one he has failed to pass twice. I dont expect the Austrian to make it third time lucky.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games vs Pere Riba-Madrid: I was a little concerned with David Ferrer's state of mind after all the mental efforts it took to lead Spain to a Davis Cup win over the USA on Sunday. He has also had to travel from Texas to Sweden, but the extra day of rest could be crucial to his ability in this match.
Pere Riba-Madrid has not had the same impact on the main tour as he has had on the Challenger circuit and I see Ferrer's consistency causing him problems during this match.
Ferrer is a player that will give it his all if he does take part in a tournament and I expect he will come through 6-4, 6-2.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Mikhail Youzhny was excellent in his comfortable win over Phillip Petzschner in the last Round and I expect he will come out on top against the classy Juan Carlos Ferrero here.
Ferrero usually reserves his best tennis for the clay, but a lack of matches could seriously undermine him against a tough opponent like Youzhny.
This will only be Ferrero's 7th match since the US Open last September and I just feel Youzhny can grind him down.
The Russian is 1-2 against Ferrero in the head to heads, but his sole win came in 4 sets at the French Open and I think he can remain the highest seed left in Stuttgart.
MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Filippo Volandri @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.61 Units
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