With the tournament missing some of the bigger names on Tour, it does mean that there are a few more mismatches in the early Rounds, giving the layers the clear edge.
Yesterday the picks went 1-1, but the staking plan continues to pay dividends and that is all we can do at the moment. With Novak Djokovic running in the outright market, hopefully it will be a good week.
Gilles Simon - 4 games v Frederico Gil: These two players play a very similar game, except Gilles Simon does almost everything to a level higher than Frederico Gi.
It is no surprise that Simon has won both previous meetings between the players, both coming in straight sets last season, and I expect something similar to occur now that the Frenchman has a match under his belt here.
The clay courts are generally Gil's favourite surface, while he has won 3 matches here already, but he has only reached 4 games in one of the four sets they have competed and I think Simon will be too strong for him in a 6-3, 6-3 win.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Tomas Berdych has just come off the boil in recent tournaments, but I expect he will pick up the tempo in his play again, with the clay courts favouring his big hitting game as much as the faster surfaces.
He has the big serve that will still provide cheap points, while getting more time on his heavy groundstrokes.
I think the Czech Number 1 remains too strong for Marin Cilic who is getting back to the form that had him as a certainty to reach the top 10, but who is still not quite there yet. Cilic will likely have a tougher time when it comes to holding serve, and I still think he is trying to find the consistency in his game, although that will not be easy against an opponent that will let his shots go.
Berdych has a 3-1 head to head record, including one on a clay court, and I think he is just too good right now for Cilic... I expect this ends 7-5, 6-3 to Berdych.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 4 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.80 Units (3 Units Staked)
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Showing posts with label 2nd Round. Show all posts
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Wednesday, 18 April 2012
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Tennis Picks February 16th
It has been a better couple of days, although the curse of the capitulation is still hovering over my head as David Nalbandian lost 8 of 9 games at one point of his match with Benoit Paire and still managed to just miss the cover by half a game.
It was disappointing as he was 5-1 0-40 on the Paire serve, but failed to win the set and then went on to lose 5 games in a row.
Still, I won't complain too much as I had winners with Robby Ginepri, Marcos Baghdatis and Potito Starace to at least recover the bad start to the week.
We still have Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych going in the outright markets, although the latter has taken a hit with the news that Roger Federer has received a bye through to the Quarter Finals as Mikhail Youzhny pulled out of the tournament. That means the former World Number 1 should be very fresh while Berdych still has to negotiate Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to even reach the Final.
Almagro is yet to make his first appearance at the tournament in Brazil, but should be in action tomorrow.
As I have done all week, I am going to make my picks for the day in different periods as the tournaments in the Americas have their markets put up a little later, while the same can be said of Doha which has a full schedule tomorrow.
You can follow me on Twitter where I always post a link to this thread when new picks are made.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Alex Bogomolov Jr: Now I know Richard Gasquet made tougher work of his 1st Round opponent than he needed to, but this is a match he should be winning with a bit to spare as long as he can serve effectively.
That was Gasquet's problem against Flavio Cipolla in the last Round as he struggled with the serve and winning enough points behind it, but he managed to steel himself on the Italian's serve to earn enough break points to win the match.
Alex Bogomolov had a career season last year, but his a player that can fall apart in matches as we have seen in recent losses to Jurgen Melzer and Lukas Lacko and I think Gasquet can put enough pressure on him to secure a couple of breaks in a set and that should be good enough to cover this spread.
Hopefully Gasquet won't have a loss of concentration as he did in the 1st Round and, in that case, come through 6-3, 6-3.
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Berdych in the outright market to win the tournament here in Rotterdam, but I think he may have to go the distance to beat Marcos Baghdatis in what looks like being the match of the day in Holland and perhaps in any tournament being played today.
Baghdatis was a solid winner in the 1st Round and has the game to cause anyone problems, even someone in very strong form as Berdych is. If the Cypriot can serve well, I can see him exerting enough pressure to create chances against the Czech's service games and at least push him the whole way.
They have met 5 times previously with Berdych winning 3 of those meetings... Only one, the last, has actually seen both Men win a set, although Baghdatis could be inspired by the fact he has won 3 of the last 5 sets that they have competed.
The players are 2-2 on hard courts against one another, but I just think that at odds against, Baghdatis is perhaps being a little under-rated and is worth chancing to take at least a set.
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games v Ksenia Pervak: Now I am hoping I am not catching Pervak in a breakout week after attempting to fade her in the 1st Round here, but I do believe Yanina Wickmayer has the skills to see off her young challenger here in Doha.
Pervak is coming up against a player that has shown plenty of decent form in recent weeks, while the young Kazakhstan player has usually come up short when playing the better players on the WTA Tour. Whether Wickmayer can be considered in that category may be up for debate, as she has not really pushed on as expected, but a Semi Final run in Paris last week has indicated that she is finding some good tennis.
I can't escape the fact that Pervak had lost her last 4 matches before winning two in a row here this week and feel this could be a hurdle too far. As long as Wickmayer is not in the 'mindless ball-bashing' mode she can sometimes resort to, I think she should be too strong, pulling away in the second set after a tight first.
Albert Ramos - 3 games v Igor Andreev: Igor Andreev had so much potential, but I fear he has missed the boat and it is funny to see him languishing outside of the top 100 now. He beat Fernando Gonzalez in straight sets in the 1st Round here, but this is sure to be a much tougher test for a player that has the tendency to collapse under sustained pressure.
Albert Ramos was predominantly a clay court player in his early career, which is no surprise seeing as he is from Spain, but he seems to have taken the policy to follow the Main Tour a little more closely this season and this is his first clay court tournament of 2012. He had an impressive win over Santiago Giraldo in the last Round as the underdog and has the game that could wear down Andreev here.
I expect Ramos will try and use consistency in his play and hope Andreev loses patience and perhaps becomes a little erratic in his play. The Russian has also failed to progress beyond the 2nd Round at a tournament since before the US Open in 2011 and was heavily beaten by Juan Monaco in Chile a couple of weeks ago at this stage.
Ramos will also feel confidence from having beaten Andreev on a clay court in their only previous meeting and I will look for him to do so again today.
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games v Leonardo Mayer: I am a little unsure as to why, but Jeremy Chardy continues to be underestimated by the layers despite enjoying a decent couple of tournaments on the clay courts of South America and I think he has been overlooked in this market.
Chardy was a Semi Finalist in Chile a couple of weeks ago before being beaten in straight sets by the eventual winner of the tournament in Juan Monaco, and he has already won three matches here as he was forced to come through the Qualifying section. His career had hit the buffers last season after a couple of decent years on the tour, but there are signs that he is getting his act together.
The Frenchman will surely fancy his chances against Leonardo Mayer having beaten the Argentinian a couple of weeks ago in Chile 7-5, 6-2. Mayer enjoys playing on the clay courts, but the majority of his success has come in qualifying campaigns or on the Challenger Tour and I think his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st Round is being given a little too much credit considering the Spaniard had travelled over from Europe where he had been having a couple of fitness issues in the Davis Cup.
Chardy has a decent serve and I think that should enable him to win more 'cheap' points and also allow him to pressure the Mayer serve. Chardy won 47% of the points off the Mayer serve and I think he should be a fairly comfortable winner if he can get his own first serve percentage up to around the 60% mark.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 188Bet (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 3 games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.26 Units (24 Units Staked)
It was disappointing as he was 5-1 0-40 on the Paire serve, but failed to win the set and then went on to lose 5 games in a row.
Still, I won't complain too much as I had winners with Robby Ginepri, Marcos Baghdatis and Potito Starace to at least recover the bad start to the week.
We still have Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych going in the outright markets, although the latter has taken a hit with the news that Roger Federer has received a bye through to the Quarter Finals as Mikhail Youzhny pulled out of the tournament. That means the former World Number 1 should be very fresh while Berdych still has to negotiate Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to even reach the Final.
Almagro is yet to make his first appearance at the tournament in Brazil, but should be in action tomorrow.
As I have done all week, I am going to make my picks for the day in different periods as the tournaments in the Americas have their markets put up a little later, while the same can be said of Doha which has a full schedule tomorrow.
You can follow me on Twitter where I always post a link to this thread when new picks are made.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Alex Bogomolov Jr: Now I know Richard Gasquet made tougher work of his 1st Round opponent than he needed to, but this is a match he should be winning with a bit to spare as long as he can serve effectively.
That was Gasquet's problem against Flavio Cipolla in the last Round as he struggled with the serve and winning enough points behind it, but he managed to steel himself on the Italian's serve to earn enough break points to win the match.
Alex Bogomolov had a career season last year, but his a player that can fall apart in matches as we have seen in recent losses to Jurgen Melzer and Lukas Lacko and I think Gasquet can put enough pressure on him to secure a couple of breaks in a set and that should be good enough to cover this spread.
Hopefully Gasquet won't have a loss of concentration as he did in the 1st Round and, in that case, come through 6-3, 6-3.
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Berdych in the outright market to win the tournament here in Rotterdam, but I think he may have to go the distance to beat Marcos Baghdatis in what looks like being the match of the day in Holland and perhaps in any tournament being played today.
Baghdatis was a solid winner in the 1st Round and has the game to cause anyone problems, even someone in very strong form as Berdych is. If the Cypriot can serve well, I can see him exerting enough pressure to create chances against the Czech's service games and at least push him the whole way.
They have met 5 times previously with Berdych winning 3 of those meetings... Only one, the last, has actually seen both Men win a set, although Baghdatis could be inspired by the fact he has won 3 of the last 5 sets that they have competed.
The players are 2-2 on hard courts against one another, but I just think that at odds against, Baghdatis is perhaps being a little under-rated and is worth chancing to take at least a set.
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games v Ksenia Pervak: Now I am hoping I am not catching Pervak in a breakout week after attempting to fade her in the 1st Round here, but I do believe Yanina Wickmayer has the skills to see off her young challenger here in Doha.
Pervak is coming up against a player that has shown plenty of decent form in recent weeks, while the young Kazakhstan player has usually come up short when playing the better players on the WTA Tour. Whether Wickmayer can be considered in that category may be up for debate, as she has not really pushed on as expected, but a Semi Final run in Paris last week has indicated that she is finding some good tennis.
I can't escape the fact that Pervak had lost her last 4 matches before winning two in a row here this week and feel this could be a hurdle too far. As long as Wickmayer is not in the 'mindless ball-bashing' mode she can sometimes resort to, I think she should be too strong, pulling away in the second set after a tight first.
Albert Ramos - 3 games v Igor Andreev: Igor Andreev had so much potential, but I fear he has missed the boat and it is funny to see him languishing outside of the top 100 now. He beat Fernando Gonzalez in straight sets in the 1st Round here, but this is sure to be a much tougher test for a player that has the tendency to collapse under sustained pressure.
Albert Ramos was predominantly a clay court player in his early career, which is no surprise seeing as he is from Spain, but he seems to have taken the policy to follow the Main Tour a little more closely this season and this is his first clay court tournament of 2012. He had an impressive win over Santiago Giraldo in the last Round as the underdog and has the game that could wear down Andreev here.
I expect Ramos will try and use consistency in his play and hope Andreev loses patience and perhaps becomes a little erratic in his play. The Russian has also failed to progress beyond the 2nd Round at a tournament since before the US Open in 2011 and was heavily beaten by Juan Monaco in Chile a couple of weeks ago at this stage.
Ramos will also feel confidence from having beaten Andreev on a clay court in their only previous meeting and I will look for him to do so again today.
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games v Leonardo Mayer: I am a little unsure as to why, but Jeremy Chardy continues to be underestimated by the layers despite enjoying a decent couple of tournaments on the clay courts of South America and I think he has been overlooked in this market.
Chardy was a Semi Finalist in Chile a couple of weeks ago before being beaten in straight sets by the eventual winner of the tournament in Juan Monaco, and he has already won three matches here as he was forced to come through the Qualifying section. His career had hit the buffers last season after a couple of decent years on the tour, but there are signs that he is getting his act together.
The Frenchman will surely fancy his chances against Leonardo Mayer having beaten the Argentinian a couple of weeks ago in Chile 7-5, 6-2. Mayer enjoys playing on the clay courts, but the majority of his success has come in qualifying campaigns or on the Challenger Tour and I think his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st Round is being given a little too much credit considering the Spaniard had travelled over from Europe where he had been having a couple of fitness issues in the Davis Cup.
Chardy has a decent serve and I think that should enable him to win more 'cheap' points and also allow him to pressure the Mayer serve. Chardy won 47% of the points off the Mayer serve and I think he should be a fairly comfortable winner if he can get his own first serve percentage up to around the 60% mark.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 188Bet (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 3 games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.26 Units (24 Units Staked)
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Australian Open Day 4 Picks
It was another productive day for the Picks as a third profitable day was secured... However, Lukas Lacko once again surprised me as he ousted Donald Young in 4 sets to move through to the 3rd Round- I am going out on a limb here and suggesting he might struggle to beat his next opponent, a certain Mr Rafael Nadal!!
The biggest surprise of the day was the exit of Mardy Fish from the Men's draw as he was beaten in straight sets by Alejandro Falla. That result has really opened up the draw for Juan Martin Del Potro to make it through to the Quarter Finals at least, although he has to improve his level by a couple of steps if he is going to make my outright prediction stand a chance.
Other than the actual tennis, the two most impressive feats on the court were probably the reactions of David Nalbandian and Marcos Baghdatis during their defeats to John Isner and Stanislas Wawrinka respectively.
Nalbandian had every right to be aggrieved (and I am not saying this because I have openly stated he is my favourite player of the last 10 years alongside Marat Safin)- at 8-8 with John Isner in the final set, the big American seemingly had his serve broken as his second serve was called out by the linesman. That was overturned by the umpire, who then refused to let Nalbandian challenge the call, a call that effectively cost him the match considering he was broken in the next game AND the ball WAS OUT on the Isner serve.
A shocking way to end the tournament and the Argentine was understandably upset, smashing his racquet at the end of the match. As I say in almost any sport, the referee/umpire should interject themselves into a game and actually decide the result and I truly hope some sort of punishment is handed out, either by the ITF or the ATP, because this kind of decision was remarkably out of sync with how challenges are used throughout the year.
Marcos Baghdatis destroying four racquets in a row
DAY 4 PICKS
Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets vs Julien Benneteau: The reason for this pick is actually fairly simple- I believe Gilles Simon is being under-rated because he was in a 5 set match in his opening game, while Julien Benneteau made serene progress in straight sets.
Simon has proven to be something of a match-up nightmare for Benneteau through the years, winning 4 of their 5 previous meetings, including the last 3 without losing a set.
We all know that Simon will look to fight for every ball and I still think he could be the slightly fresher player as Benneteau reached the delayed Final in Sydney last week which means he will be playing his 7 match in the last 11 days.
With all that being said, I am going to look for Simon to come through with a little room to spare.
Gael Monfils - 6 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: This looks like just about a small enough spread for me to bite on the talented Frenchman to go through to the 3rd Round in impressive fashion.
I have a feeling we may see Monfils make a real impact at the Australian Open this year and he will give the inconsistent Bellucci plenty of problems with his ability to return one more ball.
Much of Bellucci's best work has come on the clay courts and I think this is going to be a big ask for him to stay with Monfils, particularly in the latter continues mixing in the more aggressive shots to go with his general athletic ability.
Monfils has also won their only previous meeting, although that went the distance on a clay court before Monfils ran away with the match with a 6-1 final set score.
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games vs Urszula Radwanska: Now there is an element of doubt in my mind that we could possibly have an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance from Sorana Cirstea after she had the shock of the tournament so far by beating Sam Stosur in the 1st Round, but I think the match up means she is worth chancing.
Urszula Radwanska is the same age as Cirstea, but is fighting her own battle of trying to get out of older sister's shadow in the form of the successful Agnieska Radwanska. Urszula has really struggled on the main tour since turning professional, and last season even failed to qualify for the first 3 Grand Slams of the year.
Cirstea definitely seems to be in the better place in her career so far and also won the last time these two girls met in Hobart back in 2008- I think Cirstea is definitely the much more improved player and will look for her to get through in straight sets.
Andy Roddick to win 3-1 in sets vs Lleyton Hewitt: I am going to have a small interest in the American getting the better of 'Rusty' in front of his home support in an entertaining match, but it's only a small interest as I think the layers have underestimated the chances of Hewitt nicking a set on his way out of the tournament.
Roddick has won the last 6 matches between the two players so I do believe he has Hewitt's number now, especially considering the Australian was 5-1 in the 6 previous meetings.
Hewitt can still up his game enough to cause problems for Roddick as shown by the fact he has taken at least a set in 3 of their last 4 matches against one another since 2009. He also took Roddick to 5 sets at Wimbledon in a Quarter Final in 2009, the year Roddick got to the final only to fall to Roger Federer 16-14 in the 5th set.
With the home support, I think we will see Hewitt raise his game again to take a set off Roddick, but I fancy the American will once again prove a little too consistent and I'll take a small interest in the set betting here.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets @ 2.25 Unibet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 5-3, + 4.32 Units
The biggest surprise of the day was the exit of Mardy Fish from the Men's draw as he was beaten in straight sets by Alejandro Falla. That result has really opened up the draw for Juan Martin Del Potro to make it through to the Quarter Finals at least, although he has to improve his level by a couple of steps if he is going to make my outright prediction stand a chance.
Other than the actual tennis, the two most impressive feats on the court were probably the reactions of David Nalbandian and Marcos Baghdatis during their defeats to John Isner and Stanislas Wawrinka respectively.
Nalbandian had every right to be aggrieved (and I am not saying this because I have openly stated he is my favourite player of the last 10 years alongside Marat Safin)- at 8-8 with John Isner in the final set, the big American seemingly had his serve broken as his second serve was called out by the linesman. That was overturned by the umpire, who then refused to let Nalbandian challenge the call, a call that effectively cost him the match considering he was broken in the next game AND the ball WAS OUT on the Isner serve.
A shocking way to end the tournament and the Argentine was understandably upset, smashing his racquet at the end of the match. As I say in almost any sport, the referee/umpire should interject themselves into a game and actually decide the result and I truly hope some sort of punishment is handed out, either by the ITF or the ATP, because this kind of decision was remarkably out of sync with how challenges are used throughout the year.
Marcos Baghdatis destroying four racquets in a row
DAY 4 PICKS
Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets vs Julien Benneteau: The reason for this pick is actually fairly simple- I believe Gilles Simon is being under-rated because he was in a 5 set match in his opening game, while Julien Benneteau made serene progress in straight sets.
Simon has proven to be something of a match-up nightmare for Benneteau through the years, winning 4 of their 5 previous meetings, including the last 3 without losing a set.
We all know that Simon will look to fight for every ball and I still think he could be the slightly fresher player as Benneteau reached the delayed Final in Sydney last week which means he will be playing his 7 match in the last 11 days.
With all that being said, I am going to look for Simon to come through with a little room to spare.
Gael Monfils - 6 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: This looks like just about a small enough spread for me to bite on the talented Frenchman to go through to the 3rd Round in impressive fashion.
I have a feeling we may see Monfils make a real impact at the Australian Open this year and he will give the inconsistent Bellucci plenty of problems with his ability to return one more ball.
Much of Bellucci's best work has come on the clay courts and I think this is going to be a big ask for him to stay with Monfils, particularly in the latter continues mixing in the more aggressive shots to go with his general athletic ability.
Monfils has also won their only previous meeting, although that went the distance on a clay court before Monfils ran away with the match with a 6-1 final set score.
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games vs Urszula Radwanska: Now there is an element of doubt in my mind that we could possibly have an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance from Sorana Cirstea after she had the shock of the tournament so far by beating Sam Stosur in the 1st Round, but I think the match up means she is worth chancing.
Urszula Radwanska is the same age as Cirstea, but is fighting her own battle of trying to get out of older sister's shadow in the form of the successful Agnieska Radwanska. Urszula has really struggled on the main tour since turning professional, and last season even failed to qualify for the first 3 Grand Slams of the year.
Cirstea definitely seems to be in the better place in her career so far and also won the last time these two girls met in Hobart back in 2008- I think Cirstea is definitely the much more improved player and will look for her to get through in straight sets.
Andy Roddick to win 3-1 in sets vs Lleyton Hewitt: I am going to have a small interest in the American getting the better of 'Rusty' in front of his home support in an entertaining match, but it's only a small interest as I think the layers have underestimated the chances of Hewitt nicking a set on his way out of the tournament.
Roddick has won the last 6 matches between the two players so I do believe he has Hewitt's number now, especially considering the Australian was 5-1 in the 6 previous meetings.
Hewitt can still up his game enough to cause problems for Roddick as shown by the fact he has taken at least a set in 3 of their last 4 matches against one another since 2009. He also took Roddick to 5 sets at Wimbledon in a Quarter Final in 2009, the year Roddick got to the final only to fall to Roger Federer 16-14 in the 5th set.
With the home support, I think we will see Hewitt raise his game again to take a set off Roddick, but I fancy the American will once again prove a little too consistent and I'll take a small interest in the set betting here.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets @ 2.25 Unibet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 5-3, + 4.32 Units
Friday, 2 September 2011
US Open Day 5 Picks
Day 4 was a really good day for me in all departments as all 4 picks came in as winners and Serena Williams and Roger Federer made serene progress through to the 3rd Round.
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
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