US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 2nd September)

This is it, the final Grand Slam of the 2025 season has reached the Quarter Final Round and every player left in the draw has to feel they can win the tournament.

I do feel some meat has been left on the bone after Day 9 at the tournament, but there is time to turn things back in our own favour and that can begin on Tuesday as the Grand Slam continues.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Ten matches have been played between Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz on the professional Tour and it is Djokovic who has won every one of those previous matches.

The four time former US Open Champion may not be as beloved as some of his peers in Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and that can mean facing some hostile crowds.

It would be a real surprise if Novak Djokovic was going to be enjoying even half of the crowd supporting him for this US Open Quarter Final against the top Ranked American player.

Taylor Fritz finished as Runner Up here in New York City twelve months ago, and he remains one of the top performers on the hard courts. A Quarter Final defeat in Washington was followed by a Semi Final and Fourth Round run at the Masters, but Taylor Fritz is going to have focused on finding a way to win a Major and ensuring he peaks at the right time.

The head to head has to give Taylor Fritz pause for thought- losing all of those matches against Novak Djokovic is a factor that is hard to shift, while Taylor Fritz has lost Grand Slam matches to the former World Number 1 at both the Australian Open (twice) and US Open.

Losing here to Novak Djokovic would have really hurt Taylor Fritz two years ago, especially in the manner it happened.

He has simply not been able to compete with Novak Djokovic as well as he would have liked and it is tough to see how that changes.

There is room for improvement in the Novak Djokovic game and he is going to need that against Taylor Fritz in the form the home player is producing.

However, it is tough to know what Taylor Fritz is going to do in order to change the current tide that Novak Djokovic has built up against him.

Since their match at the Australian Open in 2021, Novak Djokovic has dominated the head to head and the former World Number 1 should have enough in the tank to find a way to secure a solid win in this one.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: There really isn't much to say about this selection.

Jiri Lehecka has enjoyed a couple of solid runs at the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters events building into the US Open, and he has looked pretty solid through the opening four Rounds at this Grand Slam event.

The draw has worked out pretty well for Jiri Lehecka, who has not beaten anyone Ranked higher than the World Number 59 position, but he has dropped too many sets in his run and this is a big step up for him.

Much will depend on how well Jiri Lehecka is able to serve.

If he can put his best foot forward, he has shown in previous matches against Carlos Alcaraz that he can serve well enough to put the pressure on the World Number 2.

Without a doubt, that is going to be key to making this a competitive Quarter Final.

Jiri Lehecka is going to be under pressure to serve well and that could be challenging over the course of a best of five set format.

Arthur Rinderknech showed that you can keep the sets competitive if serving at your best against Carlos Alcaraz, and that has to give the underdog some confidence. However, the Alcaraz serve is capable of building up plenty of scoreboard pressure and he has shown he can wear down Jiri Lehecka, even if the latter has the sole win when they have met on the hard courts.

This is expected to be the toughest test for Carlos Alcaraz through a couple of sets, but there is also every chance that the World Number 2 will break the spirit of Jiri Lehecka and that could see him pull away in another set with a couple of breaks. That may be enough for the favourite to eventually cover this big mark, although it is likely going to go down to the wire.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The upset over Elena Rybakina will have given Marketa Vondrousova the blueprint to what she has to do in order to reach the US Open Semi Final.

A similar performance is going to be needed in what is going to feel like a similar match up against Aryna Sabalenka, although the Czech player has lost her last four hard court matches against the World Number 1.

She was beaten in Cincinnati, but Marketa Vondrousova will take some confidence out of a match in which she created 12 Break Points against the Aryna Sabalenka serve. That is four times as many as she allowed and Vondrousova has played well in her matches at the US Open to believe that she will be able to convert more opportunities after failing to produce a single break of serve against Sabalenka in Cincinnati, despite the chances created.

Of course there will be some mental obstacles to overcome with this losing streak on the hard courts against Aryna Sabalenka to deal with.

However, Marketa Vondrousova has wins over Aryna Sabalenka on the clay courts and grass courts over the last eighteen months and the former Wimbledon Champion has Major success to give her confidence.

Aryna Sabalenka has not looked her dominant best since a disappointing Wimbledon- most players would think a Semi Final run is something to celebrate, but the World Number 1 will have greater expectations on herself.

Losses in the Australian Open and French Open Finals really have hurt too, but Aryna Sabalenka is the defending Champion in New York City and she has had a solid level in her run through to another Quarter Final.

There is no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka has to find another level if she is going to end 2025 with another Grand Slam title in the trophy cabinet, but there should be room for her to do that. Serving well is going to be key against an opponent who will be happy to slice and dice her way into those return games, but Aryna Sabalenka is familiar with Vondrousova's game and that should benefit her in this good looking Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 20-14, + 4.98 Units (67 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2024 (Monday 2nd September)

The Quarter Final lineup at the US Open will be set by the time Day 8 is concluded at the tournament and there are some big matches to be played.

More upsets have been seen in New York City with women's defending Champion Coco Gauff losing in the Fourth Round, meaning both defending Champions are eliminated. Overlooking any opponent is a mistake and that has to be the worry for any of the top names going out onto the court as the pressure and expectation begins to build.

Tomas Machac + 4.5 games v Jack Draper: The bottom half of the draw has become wide open following the exit of Novak Djokovic and that has placed additional pressure on all involved.

It is a different matter in the top half of the draw with the top Seed and World Number 1 still going strong in the men's tournament.

Despite that, the Carlos Alcaraz defeat in the Second Round has opened things up and Jack Draper has taken advantage by beating the man who beat the man. The British player has big ambitions on the Tour, but this feels like a much tougher match than the layers seem to think.

Tomas Machac has made his way through the draw behind some impressive performances and he will be a real threat if he continues to serve as well as he done through the first three Rounds. The serve had been an important shot for Jack Draper in his first two wins, but he will need to raise his level from the last performance if he is going to win this match as predicted.

Credit has to be given to Draper for the kind of returning performances he has put together, but this has not always been his strength. He is also facing an opponent in Tomas Machac who has really been able to put the pressure on with his own return of serve backing up the big serving and the World Number 39 can earn a spot in his first Grand Slam Quarter Final.

The mental edge has to be with Tomas Machac who has won all three previous matches against Jack Draper, including twice on the hard courts.

In those previous matches, Machac has been the stronger server of the two and he is certainly playing well enough to believe he can keep this match competitive, even if he is not able to get over the line for the upset.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Luidmila Samsonova: The World Number 1 produced a dominant win in the Third Round and Iga Swiatek looks to be on course to face Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open Final.

There is still work to do before we get to see the top two players going at it and Swiatek will want to make sure she remains focused on each match as it comes.

Overlooking Luidmila Samsonova would be a mistake, but this has proven to be a good match up for Iga Swiatek and the feeling is that we will see more of the same.

These two players met on the hard courts twice in 2023 and Iga Swiatek crushed Luidmila Samsonova for the loss of just five games. The Pole has been able to not only dominate behind serve, but she has more than half of the points played on the Samsonova serve and that is really unsustainable for the lower Ranked player.

It means Luidmila Samsonova is under pressure right from the off and in almost every service game and that is a mentality will be hard to shift. The wins in the US Open will help, but Samsonova will need to pick up the level produced and that is going to be tough to do against someone as good as Iga Swiatek.

Iga Swiatek has had some poor moments off the clay courts, but the serve is a big weapon for her and she looks to have found a positive rhythm behind this shot. Maintaining that will mean she is able to focus on using her aggressive return to keep her opponent under pressure and Swiatek may have the qualities to match her Third Round win with another comfortable looking final score on the board.

MY PICKS: Tomas Machac + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 18-14, + 2.66 Units (64 Units Staked, + 4.16% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank Jr II (September 2nd)

There is no doubt that Queensberry and Daniel Dubois will have been very glad that there was some controversy at the conclusion of his Unification World Title shot against Oleksandr Usyk, if only to control some of the narrative around the fight.

A borderline body shot in the Fifth Round was quickly ruled a low blow and Oleksandr Usyk was given plenty of time to recover- on first look it would have felt Daniel Dubois had perhaps been unfortunate with the call made by the referee, but ultimately it was a low shot and the right decision was made.

Of course the Dubois team and promoter were going to make a massive deal out of being 'robbed' and plenty in the United Kingdom have bought into that storyline.

However, my feeling was that Oleksandr Usyk would have been able to get up if it was ruled a legal blow and it is hard to shift the image of Daniel Dubois calling it a day on his knee for a second time in his career. Many gave him sympathy for doing that against Joe Joyce with a busted orbital bone, but the decision to stay down last week is hard to accept, even if all boxers deserve a lot of credit for merely stepping through the ropes.

Inside the industry it will have been something noted and Daniel Dubois is going to have to answer some major questions at some point about whether he has the heart compete when the going gets tough. For the majority of his career it has not been tough and opponents have crumbled under his power, but on two high-profile occasions he has chosen to stay on a knee and it is hard to fathom.

At 25 years old he has time on his side, but Dubois likely needs a couple of confident building wins and then has to step up his level. It may not mean having a World Title fight, but it does mean he needs to be put in with someone very live, if only for the promoters and the fighter to see if he has what it takes to take the leap into World level consistently going forward.

On the same night in the United States, Jared Anderson was back in his Knock Out form when getting rid of a veteran and he is another who is going to be looking to step up his level of opponent. He has been built nicely and is very young, but Anderson is already in the World Rankings and it may be tough to contain his steep climb.

Perhaps the idea will be to put Anderson in with Efe Ajagba, who won on the undercard, as the next step in his career before moving onto fringe World level.

With the top of the Heavyweight Division ageing, both Daniel Dubois and Jared Anderson could fill the void, although the excitement will definitely be behind the American.

September looks to be a genuinely strong month for Boxing fans and it will be concluded with the big fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo for all of the straps in the Super Middleweight Division.

There are some big names and some big fights also due out this month and it should be a fun time to be a fan of the sport.

First up is the rematch between Liam Smith and Chris Eubank Jr that has seemingly been delayed a couple of times as they renew hostilities back in Manchester. The undercard is decent to the main event too, but most will be looking forward to seeing how Eubank Jr responds to the biggest setback of his career so far.

Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank Jr II

There have been plenty of memorable moments for boxing fans throughout 2023 and some of those have been at the world level, but a lot of fans from the United Kingdom may point to the first meeting between Liam Smith and Chris Eubanks Jr as being top of the list.

It only lasted Four Rounds when they met in Manchester in January, but the conclusion was as shocking as any fight that has taken place in the United Kingdom this year.

At the time, the feeling was that Chris Eubank Jr would be the bigger and naturally stronger fighter, but that Liam Smith had the opportunity of earning the upset behind the technically sounder boxing.

Very few would have predicted the granite chinned Chris Eubank Jr to have been stopped in the fashion he was, even if he subsequently claimed an errant elbow had been the shot that had begun his downfall.

There were some factors at play that perhaps were not considered as much as they should have been- Chris Eubank Jr played up to the fans by completing his weight cut and hitting the target that was set for the eventually cancelled bout with Conor Benn and that might have just taken some of his legs away when fighting Liam Smith a couple of months later.

However, Smith was confident he could hurt Chris Eubank Jr prior to the fight having done so in previous sparring sessions and it is hard to look past a repeat victory.

Some may feel Chris Eubank Jr linking up with Bomac can just change things for him, especially considering the job the trainer has done with Terence Crawford, but Eubank Jr is not one of the pound for pound best fighters in the world. And he has not been working long enough with Bomac to really believe that the trainer would have imprinted himself on the fighter.

You do have to believe that Bomac feels he can add something to Chris Eubank Jr, else he would not have taken the task on, but the time together may not have been long enough.

It is certainly tough when you think of the comfort level Liam Smith will have with his team and the Liverpudlian has looked very confident in the build up to the rematch. An 'old injury' that delayed the bout a couple of months is perhaps a slight concern, but Smith is talking about chasing Middleweight Titles going forward and he certainly knows he has all of the tools to win this fight.

My feeling is that it will go longer, but there are some real mental demons to exorcise for Chris Eubank Jr and the worry is that his punch resistance is significantly weaker than at his peak. Liam Smith will move forward and look to throw a lot of leather and it feels like it will be a matter of time before Eubank Jr reverts to type and tries to dig in and trade with his opponent.

I expect him to come out a little more cautious and behind the jab, but technically there are issues and Liam Smith showed he can work around that punch and really get close to Eubank Jr.

The first three Rounds of the first meeting between the fighters were close and competitive and this one is likely to be very similar. The suggestion is that Liam Smith will get closer by Round Four again, but this time Chris Eubank Jr works to a plan until the first big punch lands on him.

He looks like he has just lost a bit of a step and the engine is not able to run as long as previously and that means Chris Eubank Jr has to plant his feet and trade, which only works to Liam Smith's favour. Both of these men know that Liam Smith has the finishing power and this could be a virtual repeat of the first fight with Smith ending it without the need to hear the cards.

The undercard in Manchester has some recognisable names ready to compete, but perhaps not in the most taxing of fights.

Florian Marku is back in front of the television cameras on a Boxxer card and he continues to be well matched- I can't help think he will be exposed when he truly steps up a level, but Marku sells tickets and has charisma, while the vulnerability makes him fun to watch.

Despite the record, his opponent Dylan Moran is not expected to provide the step up that some will be hoping to see Florian Marku take and the Albanian can get this one done inside the distance.

You have to expect Mark Heffron to do the same when facing Jack Cullen for the British Super Middleweight Title. Both of the fighters have been Stopped a number of times, but the Champion has built some momentum since moving up from Middleweight, while Cullen has lost two of his last three fights and may have very little left in the tank.

Plenty of people like David Allen, but many of those would have hoped he had stayed retired. Instead he is in a very tough fight against Frazer Clarke and not many are buying Allen's confidence in winning this fight.

Frazer Clarke has to get the job done inside the distance and he should be too fresh for Allen who has been fighting once a year since 2020.

The inactivity coupled with the fact that Allen has already retired once should mean Frazer Clarke can turn on the style pretty early in this one and not allow a dangerous opponent to setting into the contest.

The chief support on the card sees Adam Azim back in action and he is highly motivated to perform in memory of his grandfather who recently passed away.

His opponent has a solid looking record, but Aram Fanilian does not seem to possess the biggest of punches and that should allow Azim to get forward and swarm him early.

The Ukrainian might be shocked by the speed and power of the younger fighter and Adam Azim can earn a victory in an early night.

MY PICKS: Liam Smith to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Florian Marku to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Mark Heffron to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frazer Clarke to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Adam Azim to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 39-70, - 20.72 Units (204 Units Staked, - 10.16% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2023 (September 2nd)

It has been a difficult opening week of the tournament for those making predictions, but there has been plenty of quality tennis being produced and that will excite the fans.

In the main the top names have survived and avoided the upsets and the business end of the final Grand Slam of the season should be interesting to watch.

Half of the Fourth Round was set on Friday on Day 5 at the tournament, but the remainder of the draw will be completed on Saturday in what is likely to be the last of the 'cooler' conditions in New York City.

Next week looks incredibly hot and it will be a physical and mental test for players as they bid to win a Grand Slam title and the feeling is that the heat will cause problems. We have already seen some illness and fatigue running through the players, but the heat can be brutal at the US Open and it has gotten the better of so many in the past.

Another busy day of action begins at 11am local time and there will be tennis played right through the day and evening with the top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw due out on the courts.

Cameron Norrie - 5.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: At times it was harder work than most would have expected, even when it looked like Cameron Norrie had taken control in his Second Round win. The positive is that the British player was able to move through in straight sets, but there are vulnerabilities there, which is no surprise considering the lack of real form that Cameron Norrie has displayed in the last couple of months on the Tour.

The draw has been kind and it has allowed Cameron Norrie to work his way into the US Open and he is once again a pretty significant favourite in this Third Round match.

Not many would have predicted Matteo Arnaldi would be opposing Cameron Norrie for a place in the second week of this Grand Slam tournament, but the young Italian would have also been pleased with the way the draw has shaped up. He still needed to earn an upset in the Second Round and Matteo Arnaldi needed almost four hours and five sets to get the better of Arthur Fils, the first top 50 win on the hard courts in 2023.

Daniil Medvedev has beaten Matteo Arnaldi twice on the surface this season and in routine fashion both times, but the Italian has saved his best work for the clay courts to the surprise of nobody. He is expected to move into a new career high World Ranking at the end of the US Open, so Matteo Arnaldi will play with confidence, but he has had average hard court numbers so far in his career and will likely need an 'off' day from Cameron Norrie.

That cannot be ruled out when you think of how Norrie has been playing since the beginning of Wimbledon, but the two wins in the tournament will have given the lefty a boost in confidence.

While it has been a pretty poor year all things considered for Cameron Norrie, he does look to be the player that will have the superior game on the hard courts in this match up. If he serves anywhere near the level he can produce, Norrie should keep Matteo Arnaldi under pressure for much of the contest and that can see him wear down an opponent who spent plenty of emotional and physical energy to move into the Third Round.

Six sets have been won without dropping one at the US Open and that will further enhance what has been fragile confidence and help Norrie to the victory and a cover of this line, which is perhaps one game lower than expected.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Grigor Dimitrov: He may have spent almost an hour more on the court than his opponent in the Second Round, but that should not be a real factor in this big time Third Round match at the US Open.

Two players who will feel they should have won a Grand Slam already will meet with a place in the Fourth Round at stake and both Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov have to be largely happy with their performances on the hard courts of New York City.

Out of the two, Grigor Dimitrov clearly has the most impressive win when comfortably beating Andy Murray in the Second Round and that means he has won six sets in a row at the US Open. Of course you do have to point out the fact that Dimitrov found himself two sets down in the opening Round of the tournament before turning things around against Alex Molcan, but he has momentum behind him and will be confident enough having reached the Washington Semi Final in the preparation events for the final Grand Slam of the season.

While his chances of winning a Grand Slam have perhaps passed him by, the Bulgarian has put in some strong performances on the hard courts since 2021. However, it is hard to ignore the 8-12 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in that time and the Dimitrov numbers have taken a significant hit when it comes to the serve.

Ultimately he is going to have to serve well to beat Alexander Zverev, who needed four sets to beat compatriot Daniel Altmaier. He made things hard for himself by creating twenty-six Break Points in the course of the match and only converting six of those, but the overall performance was solid and Alexander Zverev will still feel his getting closer and closer to his best form.

He is a former US Open Runner Up, and probably still wonders how he did not win the title here, while Alexander Zverev continues to improve in the second half of the year.

The German will backed up by the mental advantage of having beaten Grigor Dimitrov in five of their previous six matches, including both played in 2023. The most recent of those saw Alexander Zverev crush Dimitrov for the loss of just four games in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago and this looks a tough match up for the lower Ranked player.

The performance against Andy Murray will be giving Grigor Dimitrov a huge boost in confidence, but playing like that against Alexander Zverev is a different challenge at this stage of their respective careers.

Alexander Zverev has won the last three hard court matches between these players and also beat Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets at the French Open- he might need four sets this time, but Zverev can progress and looks worth backing on the set handicap in this Third Round contest.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The fans love him and it is clear that Stan Wawrinka still enjoys competing, even if his chances of adding to his three Grand Slam titles are slim at best.

Playing on the big courts in the big matches will still be an ambition for Stan Wawrinka and he certainly should have one of those in front of him in this Third Round match. He has made relatively comfortable progress through the draw, which has been a kind one to the Swiss player, but this is a considerable step up from the likes of Yoshihito Nishioka and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

This time Stan Wawrinka is being faced up by a player who will genuinely believe he can win the US Open title in eight days time.

Some may be rooting for the repeat of the Wimbledon Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, but Jannik Sinner won the Canadian Masters and his own defeat to Djokovic at SW19 came in a much closer match than the scoreboard would indicate. The Italian is still a 'work in progress' when it comes to the grass courts, but he is comfortable on the hard courts and Jannik Sinner is making quiet, but efficient progress through the draw.

Seeds have been falling through the opening week of the tournament, but Jannik Sinner has won all six sets played at Flushing Meadows and has been dominating opponents. He will recognise that the veteran Wawrinka is a threat, but Jannik Sinner will not be intimidated by an opponent even if he is going to respect him.

That has been the case the last three times these two players have met on the Tour with Jannik Sinner winning all of those, including crushing Stan Wawrinka for the loss of five games in Indian Wells earlier this year. That came a few weeks after beating Wawrinka for the loss of four games on an indoor hard court, while Jannik Sinner also beat the Swiss player on the grass courts of Wimbledon last year.

Stan Wawrinka will hold onto the fact that he beat Sinner at the US Open in 2019, but the latter is so much improved in the last four years and has surpassed the level that current Stan can bring to the court.

Even that defeat here in 2019, Jannik Sinner will feel he was very competitive having created the majority of the Break Points in the match. The Italian has been very strong behind serve in the two hard court matches against Stan Wawrinka this year too, but has backed that up with aggressive returning having broken the Wawrinka serve in 57% of return games and forcing the former multiple Grand Slam Champion to win less than 50% of his service points played.

Putting it all together in a Grand Slam is the challenge for Jannik Sinner, but he has shown a tremendous temperament in his relatively young career and he should be overawed by the occasion. Once he deals with the fact that the crowd are going to be loud in favour of backing Stan Wawrinka, Jannik Sinner should be able to take control of the match and eventually pull away to cover this line.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Sebastian Baez: Two very strong wins are on the board for Daniil Medvedev and the former US Open Champion is not at all bothered that fans and experts continue to talk about Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.

In fact, the World Number 3 is pretty comfortable with his own level and admitted that the top two players in the Rankings are operating at a different level to most and it is up to the rest to try and bridge that gap, including himself. However, it was important to hear Daniil Medvedev speak about his love for the hard courts and he continues to show that he is deservingly amongst the favourites to win the title here.

Matches will get tougher compared with the two opponents he has beaten, but Sebastian Baez may not be able to offer the kind of resistance that some will be hoping for.

All credit has to be given to Sebastian Baez for winning the title in Winston Salem ahead of this tournament being played, but it does mean he has plenty of tennis in the legs already. It also should be noted that he won an event that the majority of the best players would have chosen to skip and Baez has beaten Borna Coric, who is out of sorts, and Felipe Meligeni Alves, who was forced to retire, in the first two matches in New York City.

Now he has a major step up in class against the former Champion and it cannot be ignored that Sebastian Baez had a 1-5 record on the hard courts before the tournament in Winston Salem, where he did have three top 50 wins.

Beating a top 20 player is a different test entirely, especially one like Daniil Medvedev who has a load of power and a big serve, but great movement and ability to make plenty of balls back in play. It could make it very difficult for Sebastian Baez to find a consistent way to win points in the match and certainly means Medvedev is more than a deserving favourite of this size on Day 6 at the tournament.

Sebastian Baez has lost all seven matches played on the hard courts in his career when facing top 20 Ranked opponents, but it should be noted that he pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas to four sets at the Australian Open and lost the first two sets to Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-5 , 2-0 last year at the US Open before retiring from the match.

Since then, the Argentinian has played eight hard court sets against top 20 Ranked opponents and lost all of those sets. The scores have not made good reading (6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 and 6-2) and Daniil Medvedev can wear down Sebastian Baez in this Third Round contest.

Jack Draper - 1.5 sets v Michael Mmoh: No one is doubting the kind of talent that Jack Draper has, but the biggest challenge for the British player will be keeping himself healthy.

He has missed considerable time on the Tour already this season, but Draper is very comfortable on the hard courts and has opened up his section of the draw with a win over Hubert Hurkacz. Doing so without dropping a set is a big achievement for Jack Draper and his serve was a huge weapon on the day.

Once again he will need to serve well, but this is also an opponent who is Ranked considerably lower than the one that Jack Draper has just beaten.

However, while Draper will see this as a winnable match, the same can be said for Michael Mmoh who is having a very good run at his home Grand Slam and will be hoping it leads to another new career high World Ranking mark. Michael Mmoh will have plenty of fans behind him, but he will have needed to have recovered from an emotional win over John Isner having ended the career of the long-time stand out American male player.

The match lasted just about four hours and a final set tie-breaker needed to be won, while Michael Mmoh has played his part in opening up the section having beaten injured Seed Karen Khachanov in the First Round.

The American is a decent, if unspectacular, hard court player, but will work hard and has to be respected.

Backing up an upset will be a challenge, and Michael Mmoh failed to do that at Wimbledon after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and then losing in straight sets. That experience should help him deal with some of the emotions that had to be used to beat John Isner, while Jack Draper looks the more talented player and with a serve that can make the difference at those tight moments.

It was the case when Michael Mmoh and Jack Draper faced off on the hard courts in 2022 and the latter won 68% of points behind serve compared with Mmoh's 59% mark. One match is a very small sample, but over the course of the season, Draper's serve has proved to be a big weapon for him and the feeling is that the British player moves on in three or four sets.

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: A number of Quarter Final Rounds have been reached at Grand Slam level, but not many are expecting much more than that from Andrey Rublev at the US Open.

He has had a quiet build up and there are other names in the men's draw that will take the headlines, but Andrey Rublev has dropped a single set in two Rounds and has to be inspired by the way he saw off Gael Monfils in the Second Round.

Like many sections of the men's draw, this is one where Seeds have fallen all around Andrey Rublev and so he does have a good chance to build momentum to take into the second week of the tournament.

He will be a favourite in this Third Round match against Arthur Rinderknech, a player who had shown little hard court form this season to suggest this run was possible. He benefited from yet another injury suffered by Matteo Berrettini in the Second Round and this is going to be a much tougher match for the Frenchman.

Prior to the US Open, Rinderknech had a 5-4 record at Grand Slam events played in Australia or the United States and he had lost his sole top 50 match in the Slams against Daniil Medvedev.

The serve can be a big weapon when at his best, but an aggressive Andrey Rublev is likely going to have the majority of Break Points in the match. He looks comfortable playing without the pressures that top Seeds enter Grand Slam events with and Andrey Rublev benefits from the attention being given to Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.

This will feel a big spread if Arthur Rinderknech comes out serving big, but over the course of the match you would have to expect Andrey Rublev to start grinding down this opponent and eventually break him down.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Qinwen Zhang - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 19-23, - 14.96 Units (84 Units Staked, - 17.81% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2021 (September 2nd)

A wet day in New York City did mean there were a couple of delays, but the rest of the tournament is looking much brighter.

The tournament has remained on track and the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed on Day 4 at Flushing Meadows. Players will begin to feel much happier in the conditions and I think the matches are going to be pick up their intensity as we get into a number of close contests.

There have already been some upsets at the event and the Tennis Picks have been inconsistent over the first three days, but I am hoping to put some momentum behind the selections beginning on Thursday.

Kei Nishikori-Mackenzie McDonald over 37.5 games: The winner of this match is likely going to be facing Novak Djokovic in the Third Round, but neither Kei Nishikori nor Mackenzie McDonald should be looking beyond the opponent they are facing on Day 4 at the US Open. A place in the Third Round will bring significant World Ranking points to the winner of this match and that has to be the motivation for a couple of players who are both confident when playing on the hard courts.

The best of five set format does mean there is considerable time spent on the court for the men playing at the US Open. Dropping the third set will have been disappointing for Kei Nishikori, but both of these players made relatively serene passage through to the Second Round and that should mean we have another solid looking match to look forward to at Flushing Meadows.

They met recently at the tournament in Washington and it was Mackenzie McDonald who managed to edge out Kei Nishikori in three competitive sets and the feeling is that this is going to be a tight match too. Unsurprisingly, Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald were both pretty dominant on the return in that match in Washington and even the faster conditions that some players have reported in New York City is unlikely to change the style of match we are going to see.

I am also not that surprised that the layers are finding it hard to separate these players considering the numbers they have produced in 2021 on this surface. Kei Nishikori had to withdraw from the tournament in Cincinnati too which meant there were some fitness doubts ahead of the US Open, while Mackenzie McDonald has enjoyed a productive summer on the hard courts with the inches falling in his favour.

It would not be a major surprise if we need four and potentially five sets to separate these players and I do think they can combine to cover the total games mark. When they met in the Washington Semi Final, the two players combined for 31 games in the three sets played and I do think we are going to see a competitive match with swings back and forth between them.

With vulnerable serves there is a chance that we are going to see some one-sided sets which may mean anything less than five sets will fail to see the match get close to the total games line set. However, I think the match in Washington showed how competitive this Second Round match can be and the feeling is that four sets may be enough to surpass the line.

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 sets v Jordan Thompson: A poor second set meant Aslan Karatsev was not able to cover the handicap mark in his First Round win, but he was dominant in the final two sets of his win over Jaume Munar. That was a match against someone who has not performed at his best on the hard courts, but Aslan Karatsev will have to pick up his level if he is going to even get close to matching the run he had at the Australian Open earlier in 2021.

It has been a difficult couple of months for Aslan Karatsev who has been a little more inconsistent in his level than he was earlier this year when winning a title in Dubai. Three straight losses ahead of the US Open would have knocked the confidence of most players, and it may have contributed to the early part of the First Round match against Munar, but the play over the last two sets is encouraging for Aslan Karatsev.

He now has to face Jordan Thompson who is much happier on the hard courts than the first opponent Aslan Karatsev has played in New York City. The Australian needed five tough sets to move through to the Second Round and Jordan Thompson has had a few more wins on the hard courts over the last few weeks than Aslan Karatsev, albeit at a lower level than the one his opponent has been operating at.

Jordan Thompson was a little fortunate to come through his First Round match having faced more break points than he created and he did need a final set Tie-Breaker to earn passage into the next Round. He did reach the Fourth Round at the US Open last year though and that has to be factored into this match with the conditions giving Thompson a chance of the upset.

However, he has been a mixed bag of inconsistency on the hard courts in 2021 and I do think someone like Aslan Karatsev has enough in his tennis to get the better of Jordan Thompson.

It won't be easy and the Russian is going to have to play the big points a little better than he did in the early stages against Jaume Munar, but I expect Aslan Karatsev to be feeling much better about his tennis after that win. Serving has to improve, but I think there is scope for that level to move up a gear and I will look for Aslan Karatsev to move through to the Third Round in a three or four set victory.

Alexander Zverev - 9.5 games v Albert Ramos: Getting through the early Rounds of a Grand Slam with the minimum of fuss is the first objective for all of the players who really believe they are capable of winning such an event. It certainly feels especially important for those playing in the men's draw and the best of five set format which is not seen that often on the Tour like they once were.

Moving through the First Round in under two hours thanks to a straight sets win is the perfect start to the US Open for last year's Runner Up, Alexander Zverev, and he made a potentially dangerous opponent look very ordinary. This performance is just a follow on from the dominating wins Alexander Zverev put together in winning the Gold Medal in Tokyo and the Cincinnati Masters and almost all aspects of his tennis are in fine working order.

The Second Round match may actually look a little more straight-forward on paper compared with the First Round and Albert Ramos has made things more difficult for himself having needed five sets to win his opening match here. The win is a positive, but Albert Ramos spent well over three and a half hours on the court and it was an emotional win over Lucas Pouille having saved match points on his way through to the next Round.

It would be a big upset if Albert Ramos is able to get the better of Alexander Zverev and there has been little from his hard court performances over the last two years to suggest it will be the case. Last year at the US Open the Spaniard was crushed by Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he should earn a few more games in this one as Alexander Zverev perhaps takes a little time getting used to the lefty serve.

Even then, the lack of breaks put together on the hard courts makes it very difficult to think this will be a very close match and especially not with Alexander Zverev operating at a very high level.

The German has really got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve and I think that is going to put an immense amount of pressure on Albert Ramos. The Alexander Zverev serve can sometimes go off the boil, but he looks to be in a really strong position right now and I think he is going to cover a mammoth number on his way through to the Third Round.

Gael Monfils - 1.5 sets v Steve Johnson: A day after turning 35 years old, Gael Monfils will return to the US Open courts as he looks to build on a confident First Round win. There is no doubt that the veteran benefited from a kind opening match and he was barely pushed on the day, but Gael Monfils will be the first to admit that this is going to be a much sterner test in the Second Round.

The Frenchman needed four minutes more than an hour and a half to earn his place in the Second Round and it continues what has been a more positive summer after a number of difficult months on the Tour. The serve was in good working order, but Gael Monfils will also be very happy with the way he returned and he is going to need all of that when taking on another veteran of the Tour.

Steve Johnson took over three hours to win his First Round match, but the overall performance would have impressed the American. He did reach the Quarter Final in Los Cabos and Washington, but Steve Johnson has had a challenging few weeks on the hard courts and there has been a slight dip in his service numbers in 2021 which has led to tougher results.

The 31 year old has always been a player that has served well on the hard courts, but struggled when it comes to the return and that is largely why Steve Johnson failed to break into the top 20 of the World Rankings. In 2021 the return has slipped a little more and I do think that leaves Johnson vulnerable against Gael Monfils who has won all three previous Tour matches between the two.

The last of those was in 2019 on the grass, while Steve Johnson has taken a set in each of the three previous matches against Gael Monfils. All of those went the distance in the best of three set format, but Monfils has held a significant advantage when it comes to percentage of service games being held and I expect that to manifest over the course of this Second Round match too.

Gael Monfils has earned more break points in each of the three previous matches between these players and I do think the form over the last few weeks is enough to believe in the Frenchman here. I would not be massively surprised if Steve Johnson is able to win a set, but I do think Gael Monfils can still find the right plays at the big moments to secure safe passage to the Third Round without needing a final set decider.

Lloyd Harris - 4.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: One of the First Round matches that caught the eye was the one between Lloyd Harris and Karen Khachanov and it is the big South African who has worked his way through in five sets. That should be a confidence boosting win for Lloyd Harris who is at his career best Number 46 in the World Rankings thanks to a strong year on the Tour.

The last few weeks have seen Lloyd Harris struggle to maintain some consistency, but losses to Reilly Opelka and Alexander Zverev in Toronto and Cincinnati respectively are against two in-form players. He probably deserved more from the loss to Opelka and that has to encourage Lloyd Harris.

His serve is a big weapon, but Harris is perhaps a little under-rated when it comes to the return of serve and he earned double the amount of break points than Karen Khachanov in the First Round win. Over the course of 2021, Lloyd Harris has broken in 21% of return games played on the hard courts and that has perhaps helped put him in a position as favourite in this Second Round match.

Overlooking Ernesto Escobedo would be a mistake as the American has put a couple of solid hard court tournaments in the books over the last few weeks. Granted, those matches have largely been against players Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and Ernesto Escobedo was beaten comfortably by Cameron Norrie in Los Cabos, but a win over Pablo Cuevas in the manner it was earned in the First Round will make Escobedo feel pretty good.

Ernesto Escobedo has a 4-2 record in main Tour hard court matches in 2021, but his numbers have been largely disappointing. The return is solid, but Escobedo has struggled to look after his own serve with just 69% of service games being held before the win over Cuevas in the First Round.

The two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 have led to two one-sided defeats for Ernesto Escobedo and he has won just 48% of service points played in those matches. It is a concern against someone like Lloyd Harris who is a capable enough returner to put the American under pressure, while Ernesto Escobedo has a losing record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career.

He should be fresh and ready to compete which may mean the opening set, set and a half is very competitive, but I think Lloyd Harris will underline his status as a top 100 player and begin to exert control from that point. It should be soon enough for Lloyd Harris to not only win, but also cover this handicap mark as he reaches the Third Round in New York City.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori-Mackenzie McDonald Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 9-9, - 2.52 Units (36 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

US Open Day 3 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 2nd)

It was something of a frustrating day on Day 2 at the US Open for the Tennis Picks with a couple of matches going against the selections by a point or two.

Even then at one point it looked like being a really bad day, but fortunately some late matches came down the way I wanted and that at least means there is a profit out of the First Round.


On Wednesday we move onto the Second Round and the good news is that the four Outright selections are all still involved in the tournament. All four were fairly comfortable winners in the First Round, although the competition is going to get tougher and tougher the deeper we go into the second Grand Slam of the 2020 season.

That comment is not going to surprise anyone, but the two Outright selections playing on Wednesday are both strong favourites to progress and I would expect them to move through. However neither is going to be in my selections for the day as they are being asked to cover too many games in my opinion, but not too many to make their opponents appealing either.

Instead you can read the Day 3 selections below with some analysis and others placed in the Picks section. It is supposedly going to be a wet day in Flushing Meadows so there could be a couple of rain delays that may change the momentum for some players, although those playing on Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong will be grateful for the roof that means minimal disruption even if the expected rain arrives in the mid-afternoon.

Hopefully this is going to be a bounce back day from Tuesday.


Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: The First Round draw at the US Open could not have been a much better one for Kateryna Kozlova who was paired up with an opponent Ranked outside the top 100. A straight sets victory followed for the World Number 99, but Kozlova will have to raise her level significantly when she takes on a multiple time Grand Slam Champion on the main show court in New York City.

The Ukrainian would have been pretty happy with her overall performance on Monday, but the numbers indicate that Kozlova struggles when facing the better players on the Tour on the hard courts. She has a losing record against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and over the last twelve months Kozlova is just 3-7 in those matches on hard courts while struggling to hold serve.

Now she has to face Petra Kvitova who was looking very strong in her First Round win over Irina Camelia Begu and looked to be serving very well. The suggestion from the players is that Arthur Ashe Court is perhaps not playing as quick as some of those outside at Flushing Meadows, but even then Petra Kvitova has to be confident she can use her serve to keep the pressure on an opponent who perhaps is not able to protect her own serve as effectively.

Sometimes you can look at the Kvitova return and think there is a high risk-high reward approach which has little margin for error, but over the last twelve months she has won 44% of return points played on the hard courts. That number doesn't change much when only looking at her matches against players Ranked outside the top 50, but Petra Kvitova's serve has been dominant and her 7-0 record on the hard courts against those players have seen her win plenty of matches comfortably.

I do have to respect the fact that Kateryna Kozlova has played competitively when facing top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts through her career. She has been beaten in all seven of those previous occasions, but she would have gotten within this mark set for this match in the previous five of those.

However I do think Petra Kvitova is going to find a few breaks of serve in this one if she is maintaining her levels and that is going to be make it difficult for Kozlova. It would mean she is needing to find a way to get into the Kvitova service games and find some breaks too, but that looks like a difficult challenge on this surface against the Czech lefty playing at her current level.

It is a big number if Kateryna Kozlova is feeling at her best, but over the last twelve months we have not seen enough of that. Last week she was blown away by Laura Siegemund and I think Petra Kvitova is going to be too strong and can work her way into a position to comfortably progress to the Third Round.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Anna-Lena Friedsam: It looked like a difficult draw on paper for Angelique Kerber especially as she had not played a competitive match since losing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open back in January. However the former US Open Champion showed plenty of ability in winning her match in straight sets and Kerber could have made things a little easier on the scoreboard if she had served out the match at 5-2 in the second set.

Even with the slight blip which allowed Alja Tomljanovic to get back into the match, the German has to be very happy with her level as she gets set to take on compatriot Anna-Lena Friedsam.

The latter lost in the First Qualifying Round at the tournaments in Prague and the one played here last week, but Anna-Lena Friedsam was a comfortable winner in the First Round at the US Open. That came against one of the few players in the draw that are Ranked lower than Friedsam, but her levels over the last month don't seem to be in a place where she can upset someone with a much higher profile in their homeland.

Angelique Kerber has won the two previous matches between the players including a comfortable First Round win at the Australian Open in January 2018. In those previous matches it is the Kerber return which has done the significant damage and she looked to have her eye in during her First Round win which is going to be a problem for Friedsam to cope with.

I do have to accept that Friedsam can be an awkward customer when she gets some momentum behind her and over the last twelve months she does have a 2-2 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

However there is a mental edge with Kerber in this match and I do think the return of the higher Ranked German can be very difficult for Friedsam to deal with. I do think we will see some breaks of the Kerber serve too, but over the course of this Second Round match I would expect Angelique Kerber to get into a position to cover this mark with one of the sets likely to be won by a wide margin to set her up for the spread cover.

Angelique Kerber won 52% of return points in the First Round against a much bigger server than Anna-Lena Friedsam and I think the former Champion will progress with some relative comfort when all is said and done.


Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Kaja Juvan: The Women's draw at the US Open looks wide open this year and Anett Kontaveit will very much believe she has every chance to win a major for the first time. The Estonian has been improving and heading back towards the top 20 of the World Rankings, while a close loss to Naomi Osaka here last week in the Quarter Final will not have damaged the confidence either.

She did drop the opening set at the US Open, but the performance from that point was very strong from Anett Kontaveit who crushed Daneille Collins in the First Round. The American can be a tough opponent and I do think the competition drops a touch in terms of levels for Kontaveit in the Second Round.

That does not mean she can take things for granted in the Second Round against Kaja Juvan who at 19 years old is still looking to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time. Despite her own Ranking, Juvan was fortunate to be drawn against someone Ranked even lower than herself in the First Round, but the win might have given her a boost to take into a very difficult looking Second Round match.

Decent returning numbers over the last twelve months has helped Juvan produce a winning record on the hard courts, and during that time she has also upset Venus Williams. The latter might not be the player she once was though and Juvan is only 1-4 when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Kaja Juvan's serve has been hurt by those higher Ranked opponents and her own returning numbers have simply not been able to cover up the service problems. I expect Anett Kontaveit to use her power and experience to overwhelm Juvan in this Second Round match and it was her own serving which saw her move past Danielle Collins a couple of days ago.

Anett Kontaveit has been a dominant winner when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 100 of the World Rankings on the hard courts over the last couple of years and I think that will be the case here. I expect her to earn four or five breaks of serve over the course of the match and that might be enough to secure at least one set by a wide enough margin to move into a position to cover this spread mark.

Throughout her career on the hard courts Anett Kontaveit has very strong returning numbers against the lower Ranked opponents she faces and I think we will see more of the same from her here. Unlike the First Round, Kontaveit might not need three sets this time to earn her spot in the Third Round.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Anyone who has ever seen Camila Giorgi play or if you have watched highlights of her matches will know that the Italian is a player that can produce almost unplayable tennis at her best. She can be hot for long enough to upset a top name too, but Giorgi is inconsistent and if you can weather the early storm then it is possible to wear her down and watch the errors come thick and fast.

It is never an easy match for anyone when facing Giorgi, but Naomi Osaka will enter this Second Round match as a big favourite. There were one or two concerns about Osaka heading into the tournament as she was dealing with a hamstring complaint that forced her to miss the Cincinnati Final a few days ago, although the Japanese star looks to be dealing with the added eyes on her matches with some confidence.

For a long time Naomi Osaka was considered a shy person who didn't appreciate the spotlight offered to her after winning the US Open and Australian Open in the space of a few months. Instead of that, Osaka has grown to the point where she led the tennis response to the social injustices taking place in the United States and I think she is growing all the time.

I was a little worried that it could be a distraction to a player who doesn't always want to be in the limelight, but I think Naomi Osaka will actually handle things much better than that. She will have to be better than she was in the First Round when dropping a set and perhaps not serving as well as she would have liked, but it was way too good for Misaki Doi.

The return game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who does have a pretty good serve when the first ball goes in- however, she threw in ten Double Faults in the First Round and I do think Naomi Osaka can put some pressure on that side of Giorgi's game.

Ultimately it is where I think Osaka will eventually crack Giorgi in this Second Round match although I do think it will be more competitive than the win Naomi Osaka had over this opponent in Tokyo a little under two years ago. On that day Osaka's serve was dominant and she found the breaks to comfortably win the match, but this time I expect Giorgi to stick around a little longer before being seen off.

Camila Giorgi had to dig deep to win in the First Round here having been playing in European clay court events last month instead of arriving in the bubble to play the Cincinnati event. The faster surfaces do suit her game, but I think Naomi Osaka is at a level which should be too much for Giorgi in this match and I will back the higher Ranked player to eventually crack through with the breaks of serve to cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Magda Linette - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marta Kostyuk @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Egor Gerasimov @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
David Goffin - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 12-8, + 5.08 Units (40 Units Staked, + 12.70% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2019 (September 2nd)

The first half of the Quarter Final line up in both the men's and women's tournaments at the US Open have been set on Friday and the big news was the exit of Novak Djokovic.

It seems like his shoulder issue is one that could potentially see the Serb decide to end his year early, even though he has said he will be ready to compete when the Asian swing begins late in September. That is a little surprising to me, but maybe Novak Djokovic will give it a go and then make a further decision about the 2019 season, one that he looks set to end as World Number 2 especially if Rafael Nadal can win the US Open this week.

Stan Wawrinka has to be given credit for coming through the match with Djokovic, but I do think he was aided by the issues that his opponent has been dealing with. He is going to be favoured in the Quarter Final as Daniil Medvedev is another who has perhaps got a couple of underlying issues that are preventing him from his very best form, although I would favour the latter even now.

That is for another day, below you can read my Picks from the last of the Fourth Round matches to be played at the US Open as well as the update from the tournament.


Andrey Rublev - 1.5 sets v Matteo Berrettini: Two improving players meet in the Fourth Round at the US Open to earn a spot in the last eight of the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season. Both Andrey Rublev and Matteo Berrettini will be playing with plenty of confidence having come through three Rounds already in New York City, but it is clear that Rublev has had the much better wins on paper with victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios under his belt.

Those can be added to the success he had against Roger Federer in Cincinnati a few weeks ago and I do make Rublev the right favourite in this one. I do think he looks a decent price to win this one in three or four sets too and that is the play I am going to have in this Fourth Round match on Monday.

I am not underestimating Matteo Berrettini in any way, shape or form to be honest and the numbers of the two players are very similar over the last twelve months. We have seen that Rublev is the better returner, but the Italian possesses the stronger serve and it really could be a match that is decided on how effective Berrettini can be on the return.

When these two met on the indoor hard courts of Marseille earlier this year, Matteo Berretini was able to hold 80% of his service games played so he will be competitive. However he as beaten by Rublev in straight sets as the young Russian player was able to hold 91% of his service games in that match.

Overall you would have to say Andrey Rublev has room for improvement in his serving numbers, but he has been enjoying a positive few weeks on the hard courts. During the US hard court swing, Rublev has found a way to hold 87% of his service games played compared to his 80% mark over the last twelve months and I think he is playing the kind of tennis that should get him back into the US Open Quarter Final for the second time in three visits here.

The serving power of Matteo Berrettini is going to keep him competitive, but I do think his relatively weak returning is the key difference on the day. Andrey Rublev should prove his worth as the favourite here and I will back him to win this match and cover the set handicap.


Gael Monfils - 6.5 games v Pablo Andujar: You don't really want to play too many five set matches in the first week of a Grand Slam to ensure you can conserve some energy for the second week, but I don't think Gael Monfils should be too concerned about having to go the distance to beat Denis Shapovalov in the Third Round.

It is a huge win for the Frenchman who has been very strong on the hard courts over the last twelve months even if not many would pick Monfils to win a tournament like this one. Much of that is down to the history of his career where the talented Monfils has had some good Grand Slam runs, but never really looks like someone who can threaten to win a Major.

I do think there is an opportunity in front of Monfils at the US Open with what looks to be a very manageable Fourth Round match against Pablo Andujar. No one could have really suggested Andujar was going to have such a run on the hard courts considering he spends so little time playing on the surface, but his win over Kyle Edmund in the First Round and a couple other upsets in this section of the draw means the Spaniard has had a very comfortable path into the second week.

This is already the best run Pablo Andujar has had in any Grand Slam, but I really don't see it going much further for him. Over the last twelve months he has held 74% of the service games played on the hard courts and broken in less than 20% of return games, but I do think Andujar has to be respected for the manner of his performances over the last week and Gael Monfils can't take anything for granted.

These two players have not played recently, but Gael Monfils has won all three previous matches and has been very much the dominant player. I have mentioned before how well Monfils has been playing on the hard courts and I do think he is going to have a much more comfortable day than he had when facing Denis Shapovalov in the Third Round.

I am perhaps a little wary about the fact that Monfils will have to deal with some significant pressure as such a strong favourite, and that he could easily have overlooked this opponent. However I have to also believe the Frenchman will know opportunities to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam can't be squandered at this stage of his career and I will look for Monfils to show why he is a decent hard court player with a good, strong win in this one.


Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 games v Taylor Townsend: Some players can struggle with the new found level of expectation off an upset win, but Taylor Townsend avoided that issue with a very comfortable win in the Third Round after beating Simona Halep earlier in the tournament. The American is going to have a lot of support as long as she remains in the US Open and Townsend has to be feeling very good about her game after coming through the Qualifiers.

Beating someone like Halep will have given Taylor Townsend plenty of belief, but I do think this is a very tough match for her against Bianca Andreescu who may have every chance of backing up her big title win in Toronto last month. The young Canadian showed she is very comfortable on the hard courts earlier this year and then being able to return and play so well in Toronto underlines Andreescu's credentials as someone who could easily win the tournament here this week.

I really do think she is as good as that and her numbers over the last twelve months on the hard courts shows a player who will be very difficult to beat. Like many players on the WTA Tour Bianca Andreescu can have some issues protecting her serve, but she has decent enough numbers behind both the first and second serve which is more than manageable for her to win matches.

Adding to that is the strong returning numbers and that is something that Bianca Andreescu will believe will give her a chance of putting all the pressure on Taylor Townsend. There is no doubt that it won't be easy to do that if Townsend is still playing with the kind of heart she has shown, while the American has decent numbers that are similar to Andreescu's behind her serve, although the difference is that Townsend has not always been the best returner.

She will have to try and be aggressive and take chances to get to the net and ask questions of Andreescu as any rally that develops beyond four or five shots has to favour the Canadian. That is going to be interesting to watch on Monday in this good looking Fourth Round match, one that both players have to think is a great opportunity to reach the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam.

The crowd are going to be very much behind Townsend, but I think Bianca Andreescu is a real live contender to win the US Open and I will look for her to be able to cover what is a big number on the handicap.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 19-13, + 5.30 Units (64 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)