Australian Open Day 1 Tennis Picks 2026 (Sunday 18th January)

It had been a couple of tough years for the Tennis Picks, but 2025 finished with a solid return and that is something that we will be looking to replicate over the coming eleven months.

The Tour calendar does open with some warm up events in anticipation of the first Grand Slam of the season, but is the Australian Open that most players will be focusing on as they return from the relatively short off-season.

Some players are demanding a change in the overall calendar, but the huge sums picked up to play exhibition events are perhaps meaning there is little sympathy for them- the 'Battle of the Sexes' last month was one that did not captivate quite as much as the participants and organisers would have hoped.

That is not to say there is no room for creative thinking and all credit has to be given to the Australian Open for putting together the concept of the 'One Point Slam', which involved top pros as well as amateur competitors.

Having an amateur win will have gained plenty of headlines and follows the US Open creating a new Mixed Doubles event days before the main Grand Slam got underway.

Bringing in new eyes is a big motivator for any sport and so events like those at those two Grand Slam events have to be respected and the guess is that the French Open and Wimbledon may end up putting their creative teams together to think of a way for further revenue to be created.

New ideas will be discussed, but the Grand Slam tournaments are likely going to be dominated by very familiar names.

After combining to take all four Slams home last season, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are clear favourites in the men's tournament in Melbourne.

The Italian has been the more dominant on the hard courts, but it was Alcaraz who won the US Open.

However, Jannik Sinner is the favourite at Melbourne Park and that is because he is the two time defending Champion.

A potential Third Round match with Joao Fonseca will certainly grab the headlines, but it does feel like men's tennis is lacking a bit of depth with the top two players clear of the rest.

They have faced off in Paris, London and New York City for the biggest prizes and another in Melbourne looks most likely, even if the Australian Open is historically a Grand Slam that throws up plenty of upsets and surprising contenders.

Last season it was Aryna Sabalenka looking for a third straight Australian Open success, but she was upset in the Final and 2025 was a slightly disappointing year for the World Number 1.

She did win the US Open to avoid a year without a Grand Slam being secured, but I think Sabalenka expects more and she will be there or thereabout as usual.

The women's tournaments remain wide open though and a player has not won consecutive Grand Slam titles since the Australian Open in 2021, which may be a trend that means people look elsewhere for a Champion.

Elena Rybakina ended last year in strong form and is very comfortable on the hard courts, but you would consider the first three Grand Slam Champions of last season as upset winners.

Madison Keys is the defending Champion, but she looks unlikely to repeat as Champion, and you can make the case for a number of players to have strong runs.

After the draw was made, it is perhaps surprising that Aryna Sabalenka has hardened as favourite with some dangerous players around her quarter. However, if she can get past a couple of those players with 'potential', Sablenka's business end of the tournament looks much better in the top half compared with whoever is going to come out of the bottom half of the draw.

It feels like a matter of time before Mirra Andreeva makes a big breakthrough by winning a Grand Slam, but her draw looks awkward, while the likes of Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina may have to come through multiple tests, as well as each other, and then hope to have something left in the tank if they are able to reach the Final in two weeks time.

Things can change very quickly with an upset or two littered through the draw, and the women's events have thrown up plenty of those, but you can understand the position of the layers by placing Aryna Sabalenka as the favourtie.

The Australian Open is another Grand Slam that begins on Sunday with the First Round split over the first three days of the tournament.

Opening selections from Day 1 can be read below as the first Grand Slam of the season gets underway in much warmer and sunnier conditions than we are experiencing in the United Kingdom.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Cristina Bucsa: Throughout her career, Elina Svitolina has been a serial Quarter Finalist at Grand Slam events with a couple of Semi Final runs sprinkled in.

Last year was the third time she has reached the Quarter Final here in Melbourne, but that is where the Svitolina runs have tended to come to a conclusion. The World Number 12 has not been beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open since her debut campaign and Elina Svitolina will enter the 2026 tournament with the confidence of having won a title already in the preparation event in Auckland.

This should give Svitolina the confidence to beat Cristina Bucsa, even if the latter has just entered the top 50 in the Rankings for the first time in her career.

After battling past her opening opponent in Brisbane, Cristina Bucsa was crushed by the current World Number 1 and that means she is just 4-9 in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. An upset over Elise Mertens at the US Open has to be respected, but in those nine defeats, five have been suffered by a margin that would see Bucsa fail to cover this spread.

Much of this First Round match could come down to the Elina Svitolina second serve- if she can avoid giving away too many of those or if she can protect it a little better, it should mean Svitolina is in control of this match.

You do have to note that Elina Svitolina is not someone who avoids upsets as regularly as some of the top names on the WTA Tour, but she is 10-5 on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Two of those defeats have been to former Grand Slam Champions making their way back onto the Tour, but overall the numbers suggest the Ukrainian does protect her second serve well enough to beat a player like Cristina Bucsa.

The Bucsa second serve has proven to be very vulnerable against the better players on the Tour over the last twelve months and that may see Svitolina surpass this big spread.

Maria Sakkari - 4.5 games v Leolia Jeanjean: The first thing you have to state is that Maria Sakkari is unlikely to get back to the level that once took her to two Grand Slam Semi Finals.

That was back in 2021 and Sakkari enters the 2026 Australian Open as the World Number 52 at 30 years old.

She finished last year with a losing record on the hard courts and has opened 2026 with a 2-2 record, which suggests Maria Sakkari is not going to have a long journey in Melbourne.

However, she is going to be well backed by the crowd and has been given a very strong scheduling spot to underline the kind of support she is expected to receive.

It also helps that the First Round draw has seen Sakkari drawn to face Leolia Jeanjean who has lost both matches played this year and is now 2-11 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.

The Frenchwoman has really struggled with her return of serve in those matches and that has to give Maria Sakkari an edge, even if the Greek player is not the most trustworthy player on the Tour as the form has dipped significantly from her best.

In the last twelve months, Maria Sakkari is 9-4 on the hard courts when facing players Ranked lower than herself and there should still be enough in the tank to secure relatively safe passage through this First Round match.

The last time these players met in 2022 was on a grass court, but it was a match that Maria Sakkari won with a little room to spare and that may be the case again in the First Round of the Australian Open in January 2026.

Sebastian Korda - 1.5 sets v Michael Zheng: Over the last several years, there have been a number of players who have successfully chosen to play the North American College circuit before moving onto the Tour. Instead of starting very young and potentially burning out, those players have tended to be a bit more mature and able to handle the next step, while also getting plenty of competitive tennis under their belts.

Michael Zheng looks to be the latest to come through that route and has won three Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

He was beaten in the Qualifiers for the US Open back in August, but Michael Zheng has won multiple titles on the Challenger circuit in 2025, while also reaching Finals in others.

That all means Michael Zheng will be entering the tournament at a career high World Ranking mark and could soon be progressing that further.

His opponent in the First Round should be familiar to Zheng and Sebastian Korda is likely to be well aware of the talent that is standing on the other side of the net.

Eighteen months ago, Sebastian Korda was firmly inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but he enters the Australian Open as the World Number 51 as injury and a loss of form has just slowed the momentum. There is clearly a very good player here, but Korda has yet to put it all together as effectively as he would have liked and that means he has only reached the second week of a Grand Slam three times with one of those ending in a Quarter Final appearance.

That final eight appearance was right here in Melbourne three years ago, but it has been a disappointing time for Sebastian Korda for much of the time since and especially when it comes to the Grand Slam events.

He has tended to be a consistent player on the hard courts, but there is room for improvement on the return of serve, which would also spark a bit of momentum in his tennis.

In the last twelve months, Sebastian Korda has an 11-3 record on the hard courts when facing an opponent outside of the top 50 and you have to believe that at this stage of his career that he still has the edge over a very strong College player, but one that is yet to face a player of the quality of Korda on the professional Tour.

Michael Zheng may win a set, but you have to believe Sebastian Korda has enough about him to secure passage in four sets at least.

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 games v Jason Kubler: It may feel like he has been around on the Tour forever, but Frances Tiafoe is 'only' turning 28 years old later this month and you have to feel there is still more to come from the American. He has slipped back to World Number 31 ahead of this tournament having failed to reach the Fourth Round in three of the four Grand Slam events played in 2025 and so the American can turn things back around with some strong efforts at the top tournaments.

In reality it has long felt like Frances Tiafoe has not really pushed onto the next level and hsi numbers have been steady, rather than spectacular.

There are 'x factors' that have helped him overcome some of those numbers and win the tight matches, but that somewhat deserted him in 2025 when finishing with a really disappointing 14-14 record on the hard courts.

One of the reasons for that record is the drop in the service numbers and Frances Tiafoe will know there is room for improvement.

He will need to handle the crowd in this opening match at the Australian Open against an Australian Qualifier and Jason Kubler is very comfortable on the hard courts, which makes him potentially dangerous.

Three wins on the board will mean Jason Kubler has a lot of confidence ahead of the main draw beginning and he only dropped a single set.

However, this is just the fifth match he will have had on the hard courts against a top 100 Ranked opponent over the last twelve months and you cannot dismiss the step up against a former top ten Ranked opponent.

Jason Kubler can return well enough to hurt Frances Tiafoe, especially with the service issues the American had in 2025, but this has been a tough match up for him in the past and the home hope may struggle to stick with the current World Number 31 in a best of five set format.

They have not faced one another since 2023, but Frances Tiafoe has won all three pro matches between these two players.

In the two previous hard court matches, Frances Tiafoe has proven to be the much more effective server and you have to feel that is going to be the outcome of this one.

Even if he drops a set, Frances Tiafoe may still have enough to eventually overcome this spread line set and he can be backed to do that this Sunday.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Gabriel Diallo: It would be harsh to suggest the window has closed for Alexander Zverev in his bid to win a maiden Grand Slam title, but the World Number 3 feels like he is a big step behind the top two players in the world.

Plenty of Semi Final runs and a few Final appearances scattered in would represent a hugely successful season for some, but Alexander Zverev has long been spoken about a potential Major winner and has come up short. That includes twelve months ago here in Melbourne when he was beaten in straight sets by Jannik Sinner in the Final, and Zverev will be very disappointed that the rest of 2025 ended with just one more Major Quarter Final run.

Some thoughts will already have turned to the potential showdowns with Carlos Alcaraz and/or Jannik Sinner, but Alexander Zverev has to make sure he does not overlook any opponent.

First up is a match against Gabriel Diallo, who is the World Number 41 and represents about as stiff a challenge as any Seeded player could have had in the opening Round.

A few months ago Gabriel Diallo would have been close to being a Seeded player, but his form has dropped off and he is 1-2 on the hard courts to open this season.

The serve is going to be the key for the Canadian- he will need to serve well and see if he can put some pressure on Alexander Zverev, although the problem for Gabriel Diallo is that he does not have the most productive of return games on this surface.

It has built up some pressure on Gabriel Diallo when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and contributed to the 4-11 record.

This becomes 0-8 when only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and Gabriel Diallo has held 71% of service games played in those and broken in just shy of 10% of return games. As you can imagine, that has led to some very one-sided defeats and Gabriel Diallo will have to begin fast to build confidence in his bid to at least give Alexander Zverev something to think about.

Alexander Zverev has won eighteen of the last twenty hard court matches against players Ranked outside of the top 20 and he has held 91% of service games played in those twenty matches.

It has allowed the World Number 3 to play with a bit more aggression on the return and the feeling is that he can find the breaks of serve to clear this spread after perhaps needing to come through some early difficulties.

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 sets v Zhizhen Zhang: He is still Ranked in the top 20, but it feels like Francisco Cerundolo has struggled to find the consistency to really kick on.

He is a solid hard court player and there is plenty of talent that means Francisco Cerundolo can be a threat when bringing his best on the court. The numbers are nothing to write home about on this surface and the World Number 20 is at his best on the clay courts, but he has not been beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open in the three previous main draw appearances.

The draw looks to be a kind one on paper.

Zhizhen Zhang was the World Number 31 as recently as July 2024, but injury has been a large part of this player's career and it means he enters the Australian Open mired well outside the top 300.

He has lost four of six matches played since returning to the Tour after the US Open and Zhang was second best in a loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the United Cup in the build up to the tournament.

Much like his opponent, Zhizhen Zhang has not really been able to put some consistency into his hard court performances and you do have to wonder if he can stay with Francisco Cerundolo under the Grand Slam format.

Zhizhen Zhang may feel his opponent produces enough inconsistency to earn a set, but anything more would be a surprise and the higher Ranked player should do enough to clear this set handicap.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

NFL Playoff Picks- Divisional Round 2025 (Saturday 18th January-Sunday 19th January)

The home teams dominated the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs and there are three big favourites hosting in the Divisional Round.

However, two of those are playing after Bye Weeks and so the road underdogs travelling to Kansas City and Detroit may hope that their own rhythm gives them a chance for the upset.

In reality it is going to be tough for any of the first three road teams going up, but the last game of the Divisional Round between Buffalo and Baltimore could be an epic... It is the game of the weekend and one that all are looking forward to as we finalise the last four teams standing ahead of the Championship Sunday coming up.

The NFL Picks moved back in a positive direction with a 4-2 return last week, but there is some frustration with the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew their chances to beat the Washington Commanders.

That was the sole home defeat in the Round, but it is still always nice to return a positive number and the hope is to kick on through the Divisional Round as we move into that time of the season when there are just seven games left until September.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.

First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.

There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.

Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.

The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.

Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.

Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.

The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.

It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.

A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.

Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.

They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.

You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.

And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.

The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Pick: In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.

Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.

Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.

Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.

Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.

The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.

The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.

Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.

David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.

That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.

Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.

This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout. Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: When you have a Head Coach and a Quarter Back who have won the Super Bowl together, you will always have a chance to make an impact in the post-season.

Despite being set as the underdog, the Los Angeles Rams (11-7) crushed the fourteen win Minnesota Vikings and they have been rewarded with a trip across the country for this big Divisional Round game in the Playoff.

If the regular season game is anything to go by, the Rams will know how tough this assignment would be in perfect conditions. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are going to be hosting in cold, snowy weather and that should suit the NFC East Champions who were able to beat Green Bay pretty comfortably here last week.

The conditions won't be something unfamiliar to the Eagles and that gives them a mental edge compared with the Los Angeles Rams who have to go through multiple time zones and play on the road, while also coming out of a warmer climate than what they have to play through in the Divisional Round.

Playing in wet, cold conditions also means a team will look to lean on the Offensive Line and the Philadelphia Eagles will have been keen to do that anyway. You can't blame the Eagles who have an Offensive Line that helped pile up 314 yards on the ground in the road win in Los Angeles.

Saquon Barkley has had a memorable season, but this is a smart player who will do the right thing for the team rather than for his own personal statistics. That really does make it easier for the Offensive Line to want to block for their Running Back, while Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of tucking and running himself.

Stopping the run has been a problem for the Rams and what many believe is an undersized Defensive Line and they are not expected to have a lot of success at pushing back against this Eagles Offensive Line. With the conditions expected, the Eagles will be comfortable moving the ball on the ground and then using the pass intermittently to the big Receivers that are aiding Jalen Hurts.

Los Angeles would love to have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around the Stadium, but that might be tough in these conditions.

Kyren Williams have been playing really well for the Rams, but he is going to have a tough day in the office if trying to establish the run against this Eagles Defensive Line. So much of the success that Philadelphia have had this season has been thanks to the massive improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball and the Secondary have really been able to clamp down on the passes to make it very tough to sustain drives against them.

Matthew Stafford will have some time in the pocket, but throwing in snowy conditions will not be easy and especially not against this Defensive unit and the Philadelphia Eagles may just roll on.

Jalen Hurts does have a 15-7 record against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record, while he is 3-0 against the spread at home in the Playoff.

You have to respect Sean McVay and his abilities as a Head Coach, but those teams that have earned a blowout win in the regular season have been very good at covering in the Playoff rematch and the expectation is that the Eagles frank the road win they secured over the Los Angeles Rams in November.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Most neutral fans will easily point to the final game of the Divisional Round as being the one they are looking forward to the most and both the Buffalo Bills (14-4) and Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hold genuine Super Bowl ambitions.

The two teams had been set as big favourites to win in the Wild Card Round when hosting, and the Bills and Ravens responded in kind. That has only increased the appetite to see this big Divisional Round game, which is a rematch of an early regular season meeting.

On that occasion it was the Baltimore Ravens hosting and they crushed the Buffalo Bills so will be confident in this rematch- as mentioned in the Rams-Eagles preview, teams that hold blowout wins in the regular season over a Playoff foe have actually performed really well in the second meeting.

On paper it does look like a tough match up for the Buffalo Bills, especially when they have the ball, and so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Quarter Back Josh Allen. The Bills would love to be able to run the ball, but the Offensive Line have not been playing with dominance down the stretch and running the ball against this Baltimore Defensive Line has proven to be tough throughout the 2024 season.

Josh Allen can tuck it and run, but the Ravens have their own dual-threat Quarter Back and so you have to believe the Defensive players understand how best to contain the Bills on the ground.

There are spaces in the Secondary to be exploited, even if the Baltimore Ravens Secondary have stepped up in recent games. However, this is Josh Allen at home and the confidence to spread the ball around means it will be tough for the Ravens to stop the Bills completely, even if they will have an edge keeping the home team in third and long spots.

Pushing around the Baltimore Defensive Line might not be something that the Buffalo Offensive Line can expect to do with consistency, but the bigger test may be in keeping Josh Allen upright and earning him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Bills have done that in recent games, but this time they may not be in front of the chains and the Ravens have a pass rush that have found a way to get home.

Baltimore will be expecting a bigger test from the Bills Offensively having restricted them to 10 points in the regular season game, while they may also believe this Buffalo team are going to be looking to prove themselves after losing 35-10. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson crushed the Bills on the ground and the Offensive Line showed that they are still very capable of wearing teams down up front as they proved against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card win.

The Bills Defensive Line have played well down the stretch, but this is a significant test for them and Buffalo have to win at the Line of Scrimmage. Winning in this sense means just forcing Lamar Jackson to have to throw out of Third and Six or Third and Seven and see if they can make plays through the air to change the momemtum.

Zay Flowers has been out of practice and remains Questionable for the Divisional Round game, but Lamar Jackson has others capable of filling the void as long as he is not expected to push the boat out with his passes. Much like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has been given a lot of protection from the Offensive Line and that has given him the time to attack teams through the air, although this Buffalo Secondary has played well.

It has all of the makings of a really good game, but the edge has to be with Baltimore who might just dominate the Line of Scrimmage. In close games that could make all of the difference to just flip the field, or create a turnover or two, and the Ravens can frank their big regular season win with another over Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the post-season, but he won't mind being favoured after the Ravens had initially opened up as the road underdog. The Quarter Back has a perfect 6-0 record against the spread when that has happened previously, while Lamar Jackson has an impressive 26-9 record against the spread if the line is set between plus and minus 3 points.

You have to think that Josh Allen and the Bills will be very aware that they are the home underdog, despite having the better record, and that could inspire the home team. However, the match up looks to be in favour of the Baltimore Ravens and they can be the one that most likely has to travel to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game next weekend.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.99 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 18th January)

The tournament keeps rolling ahead and there were some fabulous matches played on Day 6, which only bodes well for the rest of the Australian Open.

We have already seen some top Fourth Round matches put together, but the second week lineup is yet to be completed and that is the focus for Day 7 at the tournament.

A 2-2 record for the Tennis Picks was a little disappointing on Friday, but it could have been worse and the five selections from the matches to take place on Saturday can be read below.

Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Danielle Collins: A really good story usually revolves around a hero and a villain and both are needed.

There is little doubt that the villain in this Third Round match is going to be Danielle Collins after her Second Round celebrations angered an entire nation. Beating a home Qualifier is one thing, but Collins made sure she let the crowd know exactly what she thought of them and you just know those in attendance will be fired up to give some back.

It doesn't help that a popular and easy to like Madison Keys is standing on the other side of the net and the lower Ranked of the two American players begins as the favourite.

Madison Keys has always had the game to challenge for a Grand Slam title, but the mentality has perhaps not been as strong as needed to really get over the line. 2024 was also a tough year for Keys, on the court anyway, but the early form in 2025 is very positive and the World Number 14 has won nine of the ten matches played, including winning the title in Auckland.

Even the sole defeat to Clara Tauson has been franked considering how tough the latter played Aryna Sabalenka here in Melbourne and so Madison Keys will come into the match filled with confidence.

In saying that, Madison Keys might be the first to admit that she has not found her best level in her first two wins in this tournament and she is going to have to step up her tennis when facing Danielle Collins, the World Number 11.

Postponing her planned retirement, Danielle Collins arrives in Melbourne having as a former Australian Open Finalist.

She reached the Final in 2022, but the last two appearances at the Australian Open have been disappointing and Collins has made heavy work of beating two players Ranked well outside the top 100. The serve is not working quite as well as Danielle Collins would hope and that has put pressure on her return, which can be a problem for this American player on the hard courts.

The two players know each other well, which should just help settle any nerves, and knowing what to expect from the other side of the court makes planning that much easier.

Both will be relying on the serve to set up the whole direction of the match, but Madison Keys looks to have a slight advantage in her current level behind that shot.

She has also won the last two professional matches between herself and Danielle Collins and both of those victories have been in dominant fashion. A fast start could really help Madison Keys with the crowd likely to get on top of Danielle Collins and make things uncomfortable as they can be on the court and it could end up seeing the World Number 11 just fall away, allowing Madison Keys to win and cover the line set for this Third Round match.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Emma Raducanu: The popularity she enjoys amongst the tennis fanbase has certainly helped Iga Swiatek move past a controversial one month suspension for failing a drugs test. The authorities accepted it was an accidental failure, but many of the players around the World Number 2 have voiced their criticism as to what they feel is lenient punishment and arguably a lot less than so many others have had to face.

Some even believe it is Iga Swiatek's status as one of the top female players in the world that has almost forced the authorities to want to sweep things under the carpet, much like the criticism the ATP have faced for their handling of Jannik Sinner's case.

That is actually being challenged by those who conduct the testing, but Iga Swiatek's case sounds like it has been decided, even if some are very disappointed by the outcome.

The Number 2 Seed at the Australian Open is the dominant player on the clay courts, but Iga Swiatek has only ever made one Semi Final in Melbourne. She is clearly capable of performing very well on the hard courts having won the US Open and she has won hard court titles at the Masters level, but Iga Swiatek will know her overall Grand Slam record outside of the French Open needs to be improved.

Iga Swiatek's hard court numbers certainly suggest she has been underachieving at the two Slams played on the surface and the Pole has made another strong start on the surface. A defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup is the sole defeat Iga Swiatek has faced this season and her two wins in Melbourne have been solid enough to put her in a deserved favouritism spot for this Third Round match.

Another US Open Champion is standing in the way, but suffice to say Emma Raducanu has not been able to reach those heights again as injury and a loss of form has held her back. The British player had climbed up to World Number 10 eleven months after winning the US Open as a Qualifier, but Emma Raducanu has fallen to 61 in the years since and really struggled for a consistent impact on the Tour.

Underlining the statement is the fact that this is only the second time Emma Raducanu has made the Third Round of a Grand Slam since her shocking success in New York City and she has made the second week just once.

That was at Wimbledon in July 2024, but this is the first time Emma Raducanu will be playing in the Third Round at either the US Open or Australian Open since winning the former in September 2021.

Returning has been the key to her two wins in Melbourne this week, but Raducanu has been struggling with her serve and it is going to be very tough to contain the Number 2 Seed in the draw. She may feel she can return well enough to challenge Iga Swiatek, but failing to protect her own serve will keep the pressure on the lower Ranked player and this has all of the makings of a relatively serene win for the Polish player.

Fending off a host of Break Points helped Emma Raducanu to a competitive straight sets loss to Iga Swiatek on the clay courts of Stuttgart last year, but the last two meetings have seen the higher Ranked player dominate the returning numbers. Emma Raducanu is going to have to save a lot of Break Points to keep this one competitive and the likelihood is that Iga Swiatek will wear her down thanks to her consistency and that may see her pull away for a comfortable scoreboard victory.

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Veronika Kudermetova: Three losses to open 2025 and then dropping the first set at the Australian Open may have left World Number 17 Beatriz Haddad Maia in a vulnerable position as she looked to avoid an early exit.

She rallied against Julia Riera and has now won four sets in a row to rebuild some confidence.

Strong performances at the US Open warm up events and then a Quarter Final run at the Grand Slam would have bolstered Beatriz Haddad Maia and she won the title in Seoul. This made her start to the 2025 season feel disappointing, but the left hander is back on track and has been a solid hard court players in recent seasons.

In the Third Round Beatriz Haddad Maia faces the improving Veronika Kudermetova, a player who had been in the top ten of the World Rankings not so long ago, but who has had a difficult twelve months on the Tour.

Entering the tournament as the World Number 75 may have allowed Veronika Kudermetova to play without a sense of expectation, especially after a relatively mixed build up to the Australian Open. A solid First Round win has been followed by an upset of Katie Boulter, a Seeded player, in the Second Round and so there will be some renewed confidence in her play.

In 2022, Veronika Kudermetova had a very solid year on the hard courts, but she has lost some of her consistency over the last couple of years. It has really been evident when Kudermetova has played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and over the last twelve months she has a 5-9 record in that setting and that dips to 1-3 whn only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.

More worrying in this match up is that two of those defeats have been to Beatriz Haddad Maia at the back end of the 2024 season during the hard court swing through Asia.

In those matches in Seoul and Wuhan, it is the World Number 17 who has won all four sets competed and Beatriz Haddad Maia has been able to win 50% of the points played on the Veronika Kudermetova serve. Getting close to that mark again will give the southpaw a huge advantage and likely keep the lower Ranked player under the pump.

Backing it to secure the victories was the Beatriz Haddad Maia serve and she was broken 4 times in those two matches compared with the 9 Break Points converted herself.

A poor start to 2025 prior to the Australian Open may be raising some doubts, but this looks a spot where Beatriz Haddad Maia can be picked to get the better of this 'pick 'em' contest.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Eva Lys @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 13-6, + 7.80 Units (35 Units Staked, + 22.29% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 18th January)

It is getting hard to see.

But an unbelievable first four days at the Australian Open continues to frustrate at a huge level.

Adrian Mannarino and Gael Monfils failures to get the job done as expected really are the ones that got away and prevented it from being a really poor day, but ultimately those bits of luck are going against me as much as the poor Picks.

In a long season you are always going to make a few Picks that feel wrong after watching even ten minutes of a match, but when the luck is seemingly against you too, it really does make it very hard to accept.

Let's face it, Mannarino was two sets up, had not faced a Break Point in those sets and looked comfortable- how many people would have predicted that he would then lose 6-1, 6-2 in the next couple of sets? Simply put, it doesn't make any sense and ultimately that doesn't feel like a bad Pick, but feels like a bad outcome, especially as he rallied in the Fifth Set to move through anyway.

Gael Monfils lost only six more points than his opponent and is somehow dumped out in straight sets, yet a couple of days before Felix Auger-Aliassime won double digit more points than Dominic Thiem and was dragged into a Fifth Set himself. The inches are minor in the sport, but it really does feel difficult to take when they seemingly are all trending away from you.

It could not have been a worse start to this opening Grand Slam of the 2024 season and some questions have to be asked about what has gone wrong. There have been tournaments in the past where you just don't feel too good about the approach being taken to finding the selections, but the first four days has seen an inordinate amount of bad luck splattered around.

However, it is not a path that I will continue to walk down without some indication that things are going to turn around and Day 5 is important with that in mind. Twelve months ago the Australian Open proved to be a very good start to the year, but it has been tough viewing so far with the losses piling up at a ridiculously fast rate.

Hopefully Day 5 is much more positive in what is shaping up to be one of the worst Grand Slam performances on these pages of all time.

Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Arthur Cazaux: Any player that has picked up a title and then battled through a First Round match at a Grand Slam has to be respected. Arthur Cazaux's title win came in a Challenger event, but a win over a top 50 Ranked opponent to get his Australian Open campaign underway will have given him a lot of confidence.

He will need all of that if he is going to get the better of one of the top Seeds in the draw, especially as Arthur Cazaux has not enjoyed a lot of success against the stronger players on the Tour. Over the last twelve months, Arthur Cazaux has lost four of his six matches played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and he was well beaten by Andrey Rublev at the US Open.

Arthur Cazaux has a serve that can be a big weapon for him, but he has struggled on the return of serve against the stronger players.

More of that is to be expected in this Second Round match against Holger Rune who came through his opening match in four sets. The youngster has a decent serve, although Rune will know that there is room for improvement in his level on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

In something of a surprise, Holger Rune only owns a 4-3 record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts in that time span. The serve will likely give Arthur Cazaux some problems, but it should be noted that Rune does get plenty more out of his return game against those players Ranked outside of the top 100 and this is something that should show up in this Second Round contest.

The feeling is that Holger Rune is going to have to deal with a competitive start from Arthur Cazaux and that the first couple of sets could be very closely fought. However, the extra qualities that have taken Rune into the top ten of the World Rankings will likely shine through as the match continues.

It was pretty much how the US Open match between Cazaux and Andrey Rublev played out and Holger Rune should be able to do just enough to cover this handicap mark.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: It has been a very good start to the 2024 season Emil Ruusuvuori who reached the Final in Hong Kong and who came from a set down to win his First Round match at the Australian Open.

There has long been a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Emil Ruusuvuori, but his highest career World Ranking is Number 37 eight months ago.

His numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have been very good, although Emil Ruusuvuori has struggled when going up against the very top players. That was the case when he was beaten in the Hong Kong Final by Andrey Rublev and over the last twelve months the numbers have taken a serious dent when Emil Ruusuvuori has faced top 20 Ranked players.

So while Emil Ruusuvuori has held 80% of his service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, that number dips to 65% when only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.

That is what the Finnish player is facing in the Second Round when going up against Daniil Medvedev who came through a tougher than expected First Round match. Brutal conditions in Melbourne made things difficult, as well as the fact that Medvedev was facing an opponent playing the match of his career to date, but the World Number 3 was in control as the match developed.

The factor of the First Round match being the first competitive outing of the year perhaps contributed to the test that Daniil Medvedev faced and he should be better for having put that win under his belt.

The match up is also one that Daniil Medvedev will enjoy having won both previous matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and in relatively comfortable fashion too.

It is the return of serve where Daniil Medvedev has kept Emil Ruusuvuori under pressure and he has broken in 56% of return games played against this opponent. At the same time Medvedev has used a big serve to dominant effect and he should be able to exert his control over Emil Ruusuvuori over the course of this best of five set match.

Conditions in Melbourne should be much better for the players on Thursday and Daniil Medvedev can produce a big win.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: The only time these two players met on the Tour came on the hard courts at the Cincinnati Masters in 2021 and was won by Lorenzo Sonego. He reached his career best World Ranking a couple of months later, but Carlos Alcaraz has come on leaps and bounds in the time since these two last played on another in a competitive match.

Back then Carlos Alcaraz was Ranked outside of the top 50, but he is now the World Number 2 and a multiple time Grand Slam Champion. Plenty of people will be backing the Spaniard to break Novak Djokovic's dominance at the Australian Open, although Carlos Alcaraz has not had a big run in Melbourne in his career so far.

That should change if his comfortable win over Richard Gasquet is anything to go by, although Carlos Alcaraz will know the challenges are only going to get tougher the further he goes in the tournament.

It was his first match in 2024 and Alcaraz needed a bit of time to get into his rhythm and eventually pull clear of the challenge presented by Gasquet. He will be better for having that match under his belt and Carlos Alcaraz has shown he is very comfortable playing on the hard courts.

We know what kind of match we will get from Carlos Alcaraz, but the test for Lorenzo Sonego is to try and up his own level and see if he can give the World Number 2 a real work out. The Italian did well to beat Daniel Evans in the First Round, but Sonego had a pretty poor time in the warm up events prior to the Australian Open and has been an average player on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

The serve can be a potent weapon for Lorenzo Sonego, but he has not really been able to find any real consistency on the returning side of the court.

Lorenzo Sonego won one of his six matches played against top ten Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He has still managed to hold 77% of his service games played in those matches, which suggests Sonego can keep this one competitive, although he will be tested by the Carlos Alcaraz ability to get plenty of balls back in play.

It is a big handicap mark considering the capabilities Lorenzo Sonego has as a server, but Carlos Alcaraz has shown that he can break opponents down. His returning numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20 on the hard courts are impressive and Alcaraz may also feel that the best of five set format gives him the time to really begin to dominate.

This should give Carlos Alcaraz an opportunity to cover the handicap line set as the Spaniard progresses to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 7-18, - 24.14 Units (50 Units Staked, - 48.28% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (January 18th)

The weather is going to settle down in Melbourne over the next few days, but it was a very strange day for the fans and players on Day 2 at the tournament.

To have a heat delay during the day is perhaps not that surprising considering the temperatures we can see in Melbourne, but on the same day there was a significant rain delay and it means a number of First Round matches have to be held over until Wednesday.

One problem for the organisers of the tournament is that Melbourne Park could be experiencing another extremely wet day- while three courts have roofs attached and can keep going, the tournament structure could be severely impacted. For starters, the majority of the matches scheduled for the show courts are Second Round matches from the top half of the draw and a really wet day will mean some players are through to the Third Round while others have not completed their First Round outings.

It could mean Day 4 is a very busy, while some of the Second Round matches involving players in the bottom half of the draw could be pushed into Day 5. This is far from ideal for those having to wait to complete matches as it could mean having to play on three consecutive days, which is especially difficult for the men playing best of five set matches.

That is something that will have to be considered when making selections going forward, although the biggest names will be happy enough as they remain scheduled to play on the main show courts, which will not be impacted by rain delays.

Day 1 was a strong one, but my Tennis Picks went 1-1 on Day 2, although two players are part way through their matches.

Thanasi Kokkinakis looks in a very strong position with a two set lead and already up a break in the third set, while Roberto Bautista Agut's match with Joao Sousa is still in the early stages of the second set.

On Day 3 the Second Round is scheduled to be played and you can read my Picks below.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: After admitting he was 'vulnerable' in the tough First Round draw given to him, Rafael Nadal rallied at just the right time to avoid becoming the first defending Champion dumped out in the opening Round of the following Australian Open in a couple of generations.

It was not always plain sailing for Rafael Nadal against the talented youngster Jack Draper and he even had a bit of a back and forth with his team as he struggled to get going. A poor second set saw the match levelled, but Nadal's vulnerabilities were not able to be completely exposed as Draper was let down by his own physical problems.

Rafael Nadal still feels it is going to take something special to defend the title he won twelve months ago, but he will be happier with a win under his belt. That means having a couple more days to get into this tournament, while also being able to build some rhythm ahead of this Second Round match on Day 3 at the tournament.

This should be a more comfortable match for Rafael Nadal- in the First Round there was a feeling that Jack Draper's aggressiveness and big game could be a real problem for the Spaniard, but Mackenzie McDonald is not expected to be as successful with that kind of approach.

Instead the American has long been a player that the top players feel comfortable facing with the rhythm you can build when facing McDonald, and that is summed up by his 1-11 record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts through his career. The win over Brandon Nakashima will have given Mackenzie McDonald some real confidence, but he had to spend over four hours on the court and that is going to have a physical impact on the lower Ranked player, something that will be tested and pushed by Nadal in this Second Round match.

Mackenzie McDonald can force opponents to have to hit an extra shot or two with his defensive skills, but this feels like a match that is going to be dictated by Rafael Nadal's racquet.

I do think Rafael Nadal is still nowhere near the kind of fitness level that he would have hoped to have had in Melbourne, but I think he will appreciate this match up. It should mean he can continue to build into the Australian Open and I do think he can cover a line that would have been at least two games higher if there were not the fitness concerns around the top Seed in the draw.

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 games v Jason Kubler: The run to the Semi Final at the US Open underlines the kind of talent that Karen Khachanov has, but he has not really found the consistency on the Tour that he would have hoped for.

He made a strong start here in Melbourne, where Karen Khachanov has had successes before, and I do think he will be able to handle the occasion. In January 2020 he faced Nick Kyrgios at the Australian Open and the crowd will never be as rabid as they get when Kyrgios is on the court so this match should feel serene in comparison for the Russian player.

Jason Kubler will be well backed, but he has a significant talent gap to bridge to Karen Khachanov.

The Australian has made a strong start to 2023, but it is a very small sample of matches played and the overall numbers from the last twelve months suggests Jason Kubler will do well to win two sets in this best of five set match. The return of serve is the strength for Kubler, but this is a big serve that is going to be in front of him and that only puts pressure on the lower Ranked player to serve at his very best.

Karen Khachanov is not really a player that has the best return numbers, but he can be aggressive on this side of the net and that could exert the pressure to break through and win this match.

I am expecting Khachanov to win this one three or four sets and that should be good enough to find the breaks of serve to cover this line.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-2, + 5.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.25% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2022 (January 18th)

It's good to have some Tennis to talk about as fans of the sport, but the spectre of Novak Djokovic is going to hang over the Australian Open for at least a few more days.

The new rules that have been announced in France means Novak Djokovic could be in a spot of bother if he wishes to compete in the second Grand Slam of the season too and I do think the World Number 1 has some big decisions to make.

He is either going to succumb and accept vaccination or, perhaps a bigger story, is that Novak Djokovic will decide he is going to retire from playing on the Tour. With the issues in France and the United States, Novak Djokovic may not be able to compete in the really big events and you would have to wonder if he is going to push himself at other events when it has become very clear that history is on his mind.

It would be an amazing turn of events and something that will dominate the headlines each time we get close to a Grand Slam event- I actually thought Novak Djokovic had a stronger chance of overcoming Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slam mark than even Serena Williams. This is a story that will not go away quietly and I expect players to continue to be asked about the Djokovic situation at least through the remainder of the First Round.

Day 1 was a pretty positive start for the Tennis Picks in 2022 as I look to have a much more consistent season than 2021- it was a mixed year with the Grand Slam results, but also a season in which I did not want to make as many Picks with so much uncertainty about the status of tournaments and whether players were going to compete as usual.

2022 should be a much more familiar looking calendar barring another variant coming into play and the start on Monday is one to build upon.

Of course it is only a start and the next fortnight there will be some ups and downs before the final results of the tournament become clear.

Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Alex Molcan: Over the last couple of years, Casper Ruud has begun to fulfil some of the early promise and he has moved into the top ten of the World Rankings. There is little doubt that Casper Ruud is at his best on the clay courts, but he has shown significant improvement on the hard courts and that makes the Norwegian a potential Grand Slam threat throughout the year.

In the last twelve months, Casper Ruud has continued to produce big serves at the right time, which is so important on the hard courts. However, it is the return aspect of his game which has sparked the strong number of wins on the surface and I think that makes Casper Ruud a player that can, and perhaps should, make it through the early Rounds of the Slams without having too many difficulties.

He has been paired to play Alex Molcan in the First Round of the Australian Open, another much improved player on the Tour who reached the Third Round at the US Open after getting through the Qualifiers. That has helped Alex Molcan reach a career high World Number 74 in the Rankings and that means automatic entry into the Grand Slam events as he looks to take a big scalp.

Alex Molcan reached the Quarter Final in a warm up event held in Melbourne ahead of the Australian Open, but he lost to all top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 and I am not putting a great stock in the win over David Goffin earlier this month. The numbers in those matches against top 50 Ranked players shows the Slovakian has found his serve under constant pressure, while he has not really been able to get into the return games in the manner he would have liked either.

I think that will potentially show up in this First Round match too.

One of the concerns I have with Casper Ruud is that he has yet to really get to grips with taking on the top players in the Rankings on this surface. However, that has not been the case when he has taken on players outside the top 20 and over the last twelve months Casper Ruud has a 24-2 record against those opponents.

His numbers in those twenty-six matches are really impressive- Casper Ruud has held 89% of the service games played, but also broken in 29% of return games played. Nerves can play a part in the opening Rounds of a Grand Slam, but I think this is a match that Casper Ruud can get on top of and eventually pull clear of Alex Molcan on his way through to the Second Round.

Andy Murray - 1.5 sets v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Three years ago, Andy Murray played on a Protected Ranking and was beaten in the First Round of the Australian Open. Hip issues meant rumours surrounded his future on the Tour, but even Andy Murray was a touch embarrassed when the Open played a 'retirement video' for him at the end of the defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut.

Not many would have expected to see him back, but Andy Murray is still fighting to play on the Tour having gone through multiple surgeries and had a metal implant placed in his hip. Now he has been given a Wild Card to play in Melbourne again and Murray is coming in off a run to the Sydney Final in the final warm up event before heading to the first Grand Slam of the 2022 season.

He looks happier with his fitness, but the British player may have hoped for a touch easier draw than the one that has been given to him in the First Round. The former World Number will take on the Number 21 Seed in the draw when opposed by Nikoloz Basilashvili and there have been a lot of plaudits about the way the Georgian goes about his tennis.

No one will doubt the power that comes from the Nikoloz Basilashvili racquet, but he can be erratic and someone like Andy Murray may feel he can frustrate him into mistakes. However, these two met in Sydney last week and it was a really tough match for both players that needed the final set decider and over three hours spent on the court.

It was Andy Murray who came away with the victory, but both players created a host of break points and this looks to be another grinder for whoever comes out on top. It is a mental advantage having beaten Nikoloz Basilashvili and Andy Murray also saw off this opponent at Wimbledon last year, while it will be the second serve of both players that has to be working well if they are going to move through to the Second Round.

As hard as Nikoloz Basilashvili hits the ball, he is an inconsistent performer on the hard courts with an attitude that suggests he does not worry about missing balls. His numbers back up the inconsistency and the Seeded player has lost all three matches played in 2022, which could show up in the tight moments in this match.

Andy Murray is struggling to reach the levels he still believes he possesses, at least on a consistent basis, but I think his defensive nous can show up in this First Round match. I would not be surprised if both players win a set, but the feeling is that Andy Murray's movement around the court can extract one or two more mistakes out of the Nikoloz Basilashvili at key moments and see the British player cover the set handicap.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Novak Djokovic is out of the draw and that means there will be a number of players that feel they can make their mark on the first Grand Slam of the 2022 season. In recent years Stefanos Tsitsipas has played well in Melbourne where a large Greek community comes out and supports one of their own, but you can't ignore the fact that he has been struggling with one or two fitness issues.

Instead of hearing much about how he is feeling, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been faced with questions about Novak Djokovic and has been one of the more outspoken players on the Tour that has moved against the World Number 1. I don't think that affects the support he will get from the crowd, but I do wonder how others will see him moving forward and whether that impacts his tennis for the short term at least.

The Greek player does have some solid numbers on the hard courts, but he was not able to finish out the ATP Finals in November and has only played a match and a half in preparation for the Australian Open. That does raise some questions about where he is physically and mentally for an attack on a Grand Slam, although I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be confident in the First Round match that has been presented to him.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has beaten Mikael Ymer comfortably in both previous matches played on the Tour and that includes a thumping straight sets win here in Melbourne last year. In the two matches against Ymer, Stefanos Tsitsipas has held 95% of the service games played and has broken in 55% of return games and there is no doubt the match up is one that he will enjoy.

Mikael Ymer is someone who will work hard and he will look to drag his opponent into deep waters to test his fitness, while he has produced a 2-1 record in preparation for the Australian Open. However, the hard court numbers have highlighted what is a vulnerable serve and the Swedish player could find himself under pressure throughout this match if Tsitsipas is anywhere near close to full health.

The underdog has shown he can be a very efficient return player on the hard courts, but those have largely been produced against players lower down the Rankings and on the Challenger Tour. Mikael Ymer has only broken in 21% of return games played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career and that puts a lot of pressure on a serve that he has managed to look after in 69% of games played.

My biggest concern has to be wondering if Stefanos Tsitsipas has enough in the tank to compete, although that may only show up further down the line as the competition ramps up in the Australian Open. This is a match that should be one he can feel relaxed within and that should see the higher Ranked player come through with a relatively straight-forward win on the day.

Daniel Evans - 5.5 games v David Goffin: The pandemic has had an impact on all parts of life around the world, but injuries at the same time have hurt David Goffin. He missed much of 2021 and has returned this month looking to get back to winning tennis matches as David Goffin has found his World Ranking slipping back down to Number 45.

More slips are expected for the Belgian and that is a worry as it will mean having to try and Qualify for some of the bigger events on the Tour. That makes the Australian Open very important for David Goffin as he looks to prevent falling much more in the World Rankings, but he could have asked for a much better First Round match.

David Goffin had to retire from his last match with Andy Murray and that drops him to 2-2 for the 2022 season, but you can't ignore the fact that he has also produced pretty average hard court numbers since the start of the 2019 season. I do think Goffin is talented, but he is a vulnerable player on the surface and tends to be a touch over-rated, while you cannot ignore the obvious fitness issues.

An opponent like Daniel Evans is likely going to push David Goffin and try and keep him out on the court for as long as possible if he needs to wear him down. It has been an up and down career for Daniel Evans, but the British player will believe there is an opportunity to break the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time and he played well at the ATP Cup before reaching the Semi Final in Sydney last week.

Having a Tuesday opening match scheduled in Melbourne should help Evans, although he is another player that can be vulnerable on the hard courts because of a relatively weak serve. The return game is where Daniel Evans gives himself a chance and I think he will be confident in a match up against an opponent he has beaten twice in their two previous matches on the Tour.

Daniel Evans was fortunate to beat David Goffin on the clay courts of Monte Carlo last year, but was a little better in seeing off this opponent in 2020 at the ATP Cup. I do find it tough to back someone who can be as vulnerable on serve as Daniel Evans can be, but he should be the player with the superior fitness at this stage of the season and I think that shows up against an opponent he knows he can beat.

It is a big spread, I have no qualms about that, but I do think the British player can move through to the Second Round as he wears down David Goffin in this Day 2 contest.

Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 sets v Liam Broady: The restrictions in Australia meant Nick Kyrgios took large chunks of the 2021 season to become involved in charity work and setting up his foundation and that meant a lot of time off the Tour. He was supposed to play in the warm up events before the start of the Australian Open, but Nick Kyrgios admitted he had picked up a positive test for Covid and that means he has played no competitive tennis since being dumped out of the US Open last year.

A turbulent relationship off the court looks to be behind Nick Kyrgios and he has loved to play in Australia throughout his career, with both factors likely to see the best from the enigmatic player. He had an even longer lay off between his last 2020 match and the Australian summer in 2021 and Nick Kyrgios played well enough to believe he can find the tennis needed to win this First Round match here.

Failing to play any competitive tennis is a worry, but Nick Kyrgios did say he had no symptoms from Covid and the hope is that he will be ready to compete at a high level. He has had issues with his asthma this month too so the preparation has been far from ideal, but a huge serve will always give Nick Kyrgios a chance to win matches and especially with a loud crowd behind him.

He is a favourite to beat Liam Broady in the First Round, but the layers are not entirely sure about the Nick Kyrgios fitness judging by the odds. Liam Broady should be battle hardened having come through the Qualifiers and especially as the British player had to shake off losing the first set in all three matches won in Melbourne.

While he made a career high World Ranking at the end of 2021, Liam Broady has yet to crack the top 100 as a professional player and there is a considerable gap to bridge. Liam Broady has a decent enough return, but it is a different test against someone who serves as big as Nick Kyrgios, while the lefty has a serve that is perhaps more vulnerable than it should be on the hard courts.

The Qualifier has yet to beat anyone Ranked inside the top 100 in Melbourne this week and it has been a difficult test for Liam Broady throughout his career. While you have to respect the fact that Broady won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021, you also cannot ignore the numbers which show Liam Broady held 73% of service games in those matches on this surface, while only breaking in 13% of return games.

If Nick Kyrgios is anywhere near his full readiness to compete, which I expect he will be in his home Grand Slam, I think it would be a big surprise if he cannot win this in three or four sets.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: A strong showing in a tournament in the build up to the Australian Open last season helped Stefano Travaglia into a career high World Ranking in February. Things have changed for him since then and the struggles to compete consistently above the Challenger Tour look to be beyond the Italian.

A nation that has produced some big name young stars, a veteran like Stefano Travaglia is going to have to work very hard and pick up some big wins to avoid slipping back out of the top 100 in the World Rankings. That drop will mean having to join Qualifying events for the big tournaments and it will likely mean a return to the Challenger level for a player that has had a real taste of the big events on the Tour over the last twelve months.

Stefano Travaglia has a 1-3 record in preparation for the Australian Open and the real concern is that none of the defeats came to anyone Ranked inside the top 60.

That is far from the case in the First Round at the Australian Open where Stefano Travaglia has been paired with Roberto Bautista Agut, another veteran of the Tour, but one who has considerable more success than his opponent. It will be difficult to imagine Roberto Bautista Agut getting back into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he is a solid top 20 Ranked player and the Spaniard is someone who is pretty adept on all surfaces.

He helped Spain reach the ATP Cup Final and Roberto Bautista Agut won four of the five matches in that tournament as he builds his competitiveness up for this tournament. There was a decline in the hard court numbers in 2021 compared with previous seasons, but the Spaniard served well in the ATP Cup and those matches were against some of the better players on the Tour.

Roberto Bautista Agut is someone who is comfortable returning the ball on the hard courts and I think he can put Stefano Travaglia under pressure in this one. These two met on a grass court in 2021 and it was a comfortable win for Roberto Bautista Agut with the feeling that this match is going to trend in a similar direction.

I do think the underdog can cause some problems with his own return, but in 2021 Stefano Travaglia held just 69% of the service games played on a hard court against top 50 Ranked opponents. That is where this match is expected to be lost and especially if Roberto Bautista Agut can pick up from where he left off serving at the ATP Cup.

In their sole meeting, Roberto Bautista Agut won 84% of the service points played and anything close to that mark should see him cover this spread with some room to spare.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Daniel Evans - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 4-1, + 4.10 Units (10 Units Staked, + 41% Yield)