I am so disappointed that the Picks only went 2-2 yesterday, especially as Alexandr Dolgopolov looked the more capable player in his loss to Bernard Tomic.
Let us hope Day 6 provides a more successful day.
DAY 6 PICKS
David Ferrer - 8.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: David Ferrer was forced into a 5 set match in the last Round, but I still think he will be too strong for Juan Ignacio Chela who is now predominantly a force on the clay courts.
Ferrer is very consistent and I think he will make it tough for Chela and force the Argentinian into hitting one too many balls and I don't think Chela has the consistency to keep up with the Spaniard.
Chela doesn't have the big powerful serves that could make it easier to secure games, and he will be forced to work for every point he wants to earn. However, that is going to be a tough ask against Ferrer and I think he will be able to win a set or two with a couple of breaks in the set.
I expect Ferrer will go through in straight sets and will look for a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 win in his favour.
Vera Zvonareva - 4.5 games vs Ekaterina Makarova: Now this is a bit of a risky pick as Zvonareva has not been in great form in this tournament nor has she made a fast start to the season, but I think she has a very good match up against a player that won in a huge surprise in the last Round and may struggle to reach those heights again.
Makarova shocked Kaia Kanepi in the last Round, and did reach the 4th Round here twelve months ago, but I think she could have a let-down performance against her fellow Russian who crushed her for the loss of just 3 games when they last met back during the US hard court swing of 2011.
Zvonareva is the more consistent player at this level and I think she will be able to show that in this match.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 8.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 8-7, + 2.46 Units
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Showing posts with label 3rd Round. Show all posts
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Friday, 20 January 2012
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Australian Open Day 5 Picks
Well it was a day when my picks sucked as 2 out 3 fell down the drain.
I was a little happy seeing Gilles Simon get knocked out after he had missed plenty of chances to win both of the first two sets, only to fight back to 2-2 for the loss of 4 games in Sets 3 and 4. I would have been disappointed if he had won 3-2 after I had predicted him to cover the set handicap, especially in the manner he had choked the first two sets.
Gael Monfils made his cover all the more difficult when he lost the first set 6-2, but Sorana Cirstea could not recover from a 1-6 first set loss despite coming back and winning the match, so it ended up being a day where some of the profit from the early part of the week was stripped away.
DAY 5 PICKS
John Isner - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I know Isner got a lucky call in his last game with David Nalbandian to move through to this Round, and I am also aware he was forced into a tough 5 setter, but I think he has the beating of the inconsistent Lopez.
Isner will have an easier time holding serve in this match, in my opinion, as Lopez is not exactly the best returner of serve on the planet, unlike Nalbandian who has always excelled at that aspect of the game.
There are likely to be a couple of tie breakers, and I think Isner has always proved himself up to that challenge mentally, as he showed when beating Rafael Nadal in 2 tie-breakers at the French Open in a 5 set loss to the Spaniard last year.
Isner won their only previous meeting on a fast indoor court in Paris at the back end of last season, a surface that Lopez is usually a tough test for any player. Isner won that match 6-4, 6-2, and while I don't think it will be that easy, I think the American gets through without the match going the distance.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: Now if you follow my Twitter account, you will know what I think of the Ukranian player- a truly talented one, but infuriating who too often loses sets in the most ridiculous of fashion and one I would not want to back at any time... Until now.
Regular followers of the blog may actually remember the last time I picked Dolgopolov to win a match- it was back in Shanghai when he faced the save opponent he is meeting today.
At the time, I believe my records indicate that Dolgopolov when off as the slight favourite, yet he is now an underdog, most likely because he has been pushed in both his matches here in Melbourne and is also facing a talented Tomic in front of his own supporters.
However, Dolgopolov has the unique shot making that has given Tomic plenty of problems in the past, winning all 3 of their meetings, mostly in dominating fasihion. Dolgopolov also beat Tomic twice in Australia in those matches and beat him twice last season and I think he could cause a surprise here.
Tomic is definitely one for the future, but I think his tournament could be coming to an end in the night session.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games vs Romina Oprandi: I like Goerges' chances to progress through to the next Round against an opponent that has just recorded a huge win against a former Grand Slam winner.
Oprandi's win over Francesca Schiavone in the last Round was a big deal as both girls are Italian and it has to be one of the biggest win of Oprandi's career, especially at Grand Slam level.
It might be hard for her to get up to compete with another talented player on the WTA Tour, one who has come off the boil a little after a big couple of months around the French Open last year. Goerges has not exactly been in super form to start the season, but she will be well rested having been on the right end of a retirement in the last Round.
Goerges has all the shot-making ability to make this a tough day for Oprandi, and beat the Italian in their only meeting at the US Open in 2010.
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games vs Christina McHale: Jelena Jankovic has not sustained the consistency that took her to the World Number 1 position, and her window for winning a maiden Grand Slam also looks to have closed as she is not able to really match up with the very best players in the World down to a lack of power in her groundstrokes.
However, Jankovic is still able to dominate some of the lesser players on the tour, and I think Christina McHale still falls into that category despite big improvements to her game in the last year.
McHale is a little fortunate to even still be in the tournament, but has been outclassed when she comes up against the very best players and I think Jankovic's style of play is going to cause her plenty of problems and expose any inconsistency in the McHale game.
Jankovic beat McHale comfortably in their only previous meeting, albeit on a clay court last year, but I still think she should be able to cover the spread on offer.
MY PICKS: John Isner - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 2.52 Units
I was a little happy seeing Gilles Simon get knocked out after he had missed plenty of chances to win both of the first two sets, only to fight back to 2-2 for the loss of 4 games in Sets 3 and 4. I would have been disappointed if he had won 3-2 after I had predicted him to cover the set handicap, especially in the manner he had choked the first two sets.
Gael Monfils made his cover all the more difficult when he lost the first set 6-2, but Sorana Cirstea could not recover from a 1-6 first set loss despite coming back and winning the match, so it ended up being a day where some of the profit from the early part of the week was stripped away.
DAY 5 PICKS
John Isner - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I know Isner got a lucky call in his last game with David Nalbandian to move through to this Round, and I am also aware he was forced into a tough 5 setter, but I think he has the beating of the inconsistent Lopez.
Isner will have an easier time holding serve in this match, in my opinion, as Lopez is not exactly the best returner of serve on the planet, unlike Nalbandian who has always excelled at that aspect of the game.
There are likely to be a couple of tie breakers, and I think Isner has always proved himself up to that challenge mentally, as he showed when beating Rafael Nadal in 2 tie-breakers at the French Open in a 5 set loss to the Spaniard last year.
Isner won their only previous meeting on a fast indoor court in Paris at the back end of last season, a surface that Lopez is usually a tough test for any player. Isner won that match 6-4, 6-2, and while I don't think it will be that easy, I think the American gets through without the match going the distance.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: Now if you follow my Twitter account, you will know what I think of the Ukranian player- a truly talented one, but infuriating who too often loses sets in the most ridiculous of fashion and one I would not want to back at any time... Until now.
Regular followers of the blog may actually remember the last time I picked Dolgopolov to win a match- it was back in Shanghai when he faced the save opponent he is meeting today.
At the time, I believe my records indicate that Dolgopolov when off as the slight favourite, yet he is now an underdog, most likely because he has been pushed in both his matches here in Melbourne and is also facing a talented Tomic in front of his own supporters.
However, Dolgopolov has the unique shot making that has given Tomic plenty of problems in the past, winning all 3 of their meetings, mostly in dominating fasihion. Dolgopolov also beat Tomic twice in Australia in those matches and beat him twice last season and I think he could cause a surprise here.
Tomic is definitely one for the future, but I think his tournament could be coming to an end in the night session.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games vs Romina Oprandi: I like Goerges' chances to progress through to the next Round against an opponent that has just recorded a huge win against a former Grand Slam winner.
Oprandi's win over Francesca Schiavone in the last Round was a big deal as both girls are Italian and it has to be one of the biggest win of Oprandi's career, especially at Grand Slam level.
It might be hard for her to get up to compete with another talented player on the WTA Tour, one who has come off the boil a little after a big couple of months around the French Open last year. Goerges has not exactly been in super form to start the season, but she will be well rested having been on the right end of a retirement in the last Round.
Goerges has all the shot-making ability to make this a tough day for Oprandi, and beat the Italian in their only meeting at the US Open in 2010.
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games vs Christina McHale: Jelena Jankovic has not sustained the consistency that took her to the World Number 1 position, and her window for winning a maiden Grand Slam also looks to have closed as she is not able to really match up with the very best players in the World down to a lack of power in her groundstrokes.
However, Jankovic is still able to dominate some of the lesser players on the tour, and I think Christina McHale still falls into that category despite big improvements to her game in the last year.
McHale is a little fortunate to even still be in the tournament, but has been outclassed when she comes up against the very best players and I think Jankovic's style of play is going to cause her plenty of problems and expose any inconsistency in the McHale game.
Jankovic beat McHale comfortably in their only previous meeting, albeit on a clay court last year, but I still think she should be able to cover the spread on offer.
MY PICKS: John Isner - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 2.52 Units
Friday, 6 January 2012
English FA Cup 3rd Round Picks (6-8 January)
Been a very busy day, but have a few picks for the weekend below. I am going to get a recap of the last couple of weeks on the blog in the next week as things settle down just slightly.
Picks will be updated over the course of the next couple of days:
Liverpool v Oldham Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12897-Liverpool-v-Oldham.htm)
Newcastle United v Blackburn Rovers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12904-Newcastle-United-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12907-Bristol-Rovers-v-Aston-Villa.htm)
Manchester City v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12920-Manchester-City-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Liverpool to win and either 3 or 4 goals scored in the match @ 2.60 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Newcastle United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Aston Villa - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
January Update: Updating before games tomorrow
Picks will be updated over the course of the next couple of days:
Liverpool v Oldham Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12897-Liverpool-v-Oldham.htm)
Newcastle United v Blackburn Rovers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12904-Newcastle-United-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12907-Bristol-Rovers-v-Aston-Villa.htm)
Manchester City v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12920-Manchester-City-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Liverpool to win and either 3 or 4 goals scored in the match @ 2.60 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Newcastle United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Aston Villa - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
January Update: Updating before games tomorrow
Friday, 2 September 2011
US Open Day 5 Picks
Day 4 was a really good day for me in all departments as all 4 picks came in as winners and Serena Williams and Roger Federer made serene progress through to the 3rd Round.
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Hamburg
It was a very good day for the picks I made yesterday as well as for the majority of the favourites that played in Germany yesterday. In fact only Nikolay Davydenko lost as a favourite, going down to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe for the 2nd week in succession.
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
Friday, 24 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 5 Picks
It was the best day of the week as far as my picks were concerned yesterday and I am hoping to add a few more units to the coffers today.
My outright picks are also in good shape, with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic progressing through another Round with ease and bringing us one step closer to the top 4 seeds reaching the Semi Final.
Maria Sharapova's match with Laura Robson was postponed because of rain, so she will have to win 2 matches in 2 days if she wants to reach the 2nd week of the tournament.
The weather looks like it will be bright for the majority of play tomorrow, although showers are due to arrive in the area in the evening.
Now on to Day 5 Picks:
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I actually thought Lopez had more than half a chance of winning this match before the tournament started, but I now feel Andy Roddick is playing very well and also holds a mental edge over his opponent in this match.
Roddick improved to 7-0 against Lopez at Queens just 2 weeks ago, coming through in 3 tight sets. That means Lopez has taken at least 1 set in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players.
With this match likely to see a couple of tie breakers, I would not be surprised if Roddick drops his first set of the tournament, even though I think he is playing well enough to come through in 4 sets.
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: Tomas Berdych has started this Wimbledon in fine fashion as he looks to make an impact like he did last year. He has blasted Julien Benneteau and Filippo Volandri away, losing just 12 games in the 6 sets he has competed.
Bogomolov was a surprise winner over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, but this is an altogether tougher test. The American has not fared well on the grass in the past and I think he has taken advantage of a decent draw this time around.
However, I feel Berdych will end his participation in this year's tournament with a bit to spare.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli really surprised me with this win over Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but much of that was down to the poor performance of his opponent when it came down to the big points.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet, a player very accustomed to the grass courts, and also one that has been playing some fantastic tennis of late. Gasquet is yet to drop a set in this tournament.
The Frenchman also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Bolelli, winning 6 of the 7 sets they have contested. 1 of those wins came on grass, with Gasquet winning 6-3, 6-3.
Bolelli was a little fortunate in the last Round, and I expect Gasquet to come through this one while clearing the handicap.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: This was supposed to be one of the highlights of the 3rd Round as it was supposed to be Venus Williams against Jelena Jankovic, but it was Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who put pay to that.
Williams struggled to get by Kimiko Date-Krumm in the last Round, but that match may just give her the confidence to make a really deep run in the tournament.
Williams has also won both previous matches against the Spaniard, including a straight sets win here at Wimbledon in 2008, and I expect she will be focused after the scare of Wednesday to come through easily enough this time.
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games vs Vera Zvonareva: Now I have already advised an e/w pick of Vera Zvonareva in the tournament, but I think Pironkova is being a tad underestimated here on the spread. I still expect Zvonareva to find a way to get through, I just wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance.
They share a 1-1 record on the head to heads, with Zvonareva beating Pironkova in 3 sets last year in the Semi Final here.
Pironkova had been out of form before the grass court season began, but she has made easier progress through the draw here and pushed Serena Williams all the way last week in Eastbourne.
Personally, I would not be surprised if she pushes Zvonareva before perhaps falling in 3 sets.
MY PICKS: Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 2.05 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 7.03 Units (+ 6.2 Units Day 4)
My outright picks are also in good shape, with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic progressing through another Round with ease and bringing us one step closer to the top 4 seeds reaching the Semi Final.
Maria Sharapova's match with Laura Robson was postponed because of rain, so she will have to win 2 matches in 2 days if she wants to reach the 2nd week of the tournament.
The weather looks like it will be bright for the majority of play tomorrow, although showers are due to arrive in the area in the evening.
Now on to Day 5 Picks:
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I actually thought Lopez had more than half a chance of winning this match before the tournament started, but I now feel Andy Roddick is playing very well and also holds a mental edge over his opponent in this match.
Roddick improved to 7-0 against Lopez at Queens just 2 weeks ago, coming through in 3 tight sets. That means Lopez has taken at least 1 set in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players.
With this match likely to see a couple of tie breakers, I would not be surprised if Roddick drops his first set of the tournament, even though I think he is playing well enough to come through in 4 sets.
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: Tomas Berdych has started this Wimbledon in fine fashion as he looks to make an impact like he did last year. He has blasted Julien Benneteau and Filippo Volandri away, losing just 12 games in the 6 sets he has competed.
Bogomolov was a surprise winner over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, but this is an altogether tougher test. The American has not fared well on the grass in the past and I think he has taken advantage of a decent draw this time around.
However, I feel Berdych will end his participation in this year's tournament with a bit to spare.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli really surprised me with this win over Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but much of that was down to the poor performance of his opponent when it came down to the big points.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet, a player very accustomed to the grass courts, and also one that has been playing some fantastic tennis of late. Gasquet is yet to drop a set in this tournament.
The Frenchman also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Bolelli, winning 6 of the 7 sets they have contested. 1 of those wins came on grass, with Gasquet winning 6-3, 6-3.
Bolelli was a little fortunate in the last Round, and I expect Gasquet to come through this one while clearing the handicap.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: This was supposed to be one of the highlights of the 3rd Round as it was supposed to be Venus Williams against Jelena Jankovic, but it was Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who put pay to that.
Williams struggled to get by Kimiko Date-Krumm in the last Round, but that match may just give her the confidence to make a really deep run in the tournament.
Williams has also won both previous matches against the Spaniard, including a straight sets win here at Wimbledon in 2008, and I expect she will be focused after the scare of Wednesday to come through easily enough this time.
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games vs Vera Zvonareva: Now I have already advised an e/w pick of Vera Zvonareva in the tournament, but I think Pironkova is being a tad underestimated here on the spread. I still expect Zvonareva to find a way to get through, I just wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance.
They share a 1-1 record on the head to heads, with Zvonareva beating Pironkova in 3 sets last year in the Semi Final here.
Pironkova had been out of form before the grass court season began, but she has made easier progress through the draw here and pushed Serena Williams all the way last week in Eastbourne.
Personally, I would not be surprised if she pushes Zvonareva before perhaps falling in 3 sets.
MY PICKS: Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 2.05 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 7.03 Units (+ 6.2 Units Day 4)
Friday, 27 May 2011
French Open Day 6 Picks
We are already through 5 days of the tournament and it remains intriguing. The weather took a turn for the worse yesterday as the blustery conditions made it difficult for players to perform to the levels expected of them.
Rafael Nadal still looks a little uncomfortable in his surroundings, surprising considering the Spaniard has won the title 5 times previously. He struggled at times in his straight sets win over Pablo Andujar and has been on court an awful long time considering he is yet to compete in Round 3.
Nikolay Davydenko's surprise loss opens the door for Nadal who will meet Antonio Veic instead.
The biggest winner of the day may have been Andy Murray who struggled through his Round 2 match with Simone Bolelli. However, Jurgen Melzer, a prospective Quarter Final opponent, was beaten in 5 sets and the bottom half of Murray's Quarter has opened up considering Nicolas Almagro has already left the tournament.
With Michael Berrer next in line for the British Number 1, I very much expect Murray to negotiate the match and progress to at least the Semi Finals- he will not get a better chance here.
The Women's tournament was where the big surprises were in store- Kim Clijsters exited the tournament in 3 sets, even after holding match point in set 2, while Maria Sharapova can count her lucky stars that she is still in the tournament.
So far, the best looking player (in terms of ability and not looks) is Victoria Azarenka, one of the favourites at the start of the tournament and it is Azarenka who has benefited most from Clijster's exit.
The picks had another good day with both Mardy Fish and Ivan Ljubicic covering the set handicap after winning their matches in straight sets.
Gilles Simon made life a little more difficult for himself after losing the first set to Jeremy Chardy 4-6. However, he turned the match around with his consistency and came through 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 to cover the spread in the gloom of the Paris evening.
So on to Day 6 Picks:
Caroline Wozniaki - 4.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I have said many times, and I will say again, that Caroline Wozniaki is the worst Number 1 I have seen for some time. Dinara Safina had a lot of criticism in her time as Number 1, but at least she was reaching SOME Grand Slam Finals, Wozniaki doesn't even do that, reaching 1 Grand Slam Final in 2009 in her career.
Why the media seem to gloss over this is beyond me- its not like she is blue eyed, blond, and supposedly attractive is it?!!
None of that matters here as to why I have picked her to win and cover the spread. Wozniaki has the perfect game plan to disrupt Daniela Hantuchova, making her play 1 shot more than the Slovakian would like and that has led to Wozniaki leading the head to head 3-0 and yet to drop a set.
In only 1 of the 6 sets competed has Hantuchova won more than 3 games and I think we may see more of the same tomorrow.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Martin Del Potro: Surprisingly they have put this on last on the Philippe Chatrier Court- that is the equivalent of going to a top quality restuaurant, being given a 4 course meal, and then the waiter brings out the lobster and cavier last and expects the diners to appreciate it!
The crowd have been quiet and filtering away by the time the last match starts on court, but they wont want to miss this fascinating battle.
Novak Djokovic is arguably in the position many thought Del Potro would be in after the latter's win at the US Open in 2009. Instead injuries have derailed his progress and now Del Potro will want to make a statement.
The problem for me is Del Potro has not really got the same consistency in his game as he did have 18 months ago and while I expect him to get it back, it seems too soon to expect him to knock off the supremely confident Djokovic.
However, Del Potro has enough in him to cause problems and I would not be surprised if he forces Djokovic to win in 4 good sets of tennis.
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Roger Federer has looked good so far this week as he makes easy progress through the draw, but now faces the man who pushed him to 5 sets in Australia in 2008.
Tipsarevic is a player that raises his game for the top players in the game, but clay is his weakest surface and makes me believe he wont be able to compete with Federer here. The Serb has losing records on the surface for the past 3 seasons before this one and it is hard to see him troubling Federer for long.
I expect the former World Number 1 to win this one in straight sets and cover the spread in the process.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to win vs Fabio Fognini: This is much to do with wanting to oppose Fognini as it is wanting to back Garcia-Lopez. Fognini may have dropped just 11 games on his way to Round 3, but I have a feeling he has just taken advantage of a really kind draw.
First he beat Denis Istomin who is having a bad season, and then Fognini knocked out Stephane Robert who obviously partied too hard after beating Tomas Berdych in Round 1.
Garcia-Lopez was particularly expended in Round 2 when he had to win 13-11 in the 5th set against Marsal Ilhan, but I think the Spaniard has been vastly underrated here.
Garcia-Lopez' best results do come on the surface and he has not had a losing record on the clay courts in main ATP tour matches since 2007. Fognini had a losing record just last season, and had lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface before this tournament began.
The head to head is 1-1, with Fognini winning on clay in 2008 and Garcia-Lopez winning on grass last season.
Personally I have more faith in Garcia-Lopez and think his odds should be much shorter.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.10 10Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez win @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.82 Units
Rafael Nadal still looks a little uncomfortable in his surroundings, surprising considering the Spaniard has won the title 5 times previously. He struggled at times in his straight sets win over Pablo Andujar and has been on court an awful long time considering he is yet to compete in Round 3.
Nikolay Davydenko's surprise loss opens the door for Nadal who will meet Antonio Veic instead.
The biggest winner of the day may have been Andy Murray who struggled through his Round 2 match with Simone Bolelli. However, Jurgen Melzer, a prospective Quarter Final opponent, was beaten in 5 sets and the bottom half of Murray's Quarter has opened up considering Nicolas Almagro has already left the tournament.
With Michael Berrer next in line for the British Number 1, I very much expect Murray to negotiate the match and progress to at least the Semi Finals- he will not get a better chance here.
The Women's tournament was where the big surprises were in store- Kim Clijsters exited the tournament in 3 sets, even after holding match point in set 2, while Maria Sharapova can count her lucky stars that she is still in the tournament.
So far, the best looking player (in terms of ability and not looks) is Victoria Azarenka, one of the favourites at the start of the tournament and it is Azarenka who has benefited most from Clijster's exit.
The picks had another good day with both Mardy Fish and Ivan Ljubicic covering the set handicap after winning their matches in straight sets.
Gilles Simon made life a little more difficult for himself after losing the first set to Jeremy Chardy 4-6. However, he turned the match around with his consistency and came through 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 to cover the spread in the gloom of the Paris evening.
So on to Day 6 Picks:
Caroline Wozniaki - 4.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I have said many times, and I will say again, that Caroline Wozniaki is the worst Number 1 I have seen for some time. Dinara Safina had a lot of criticism in her time as Number 1, but at least she was reaching SOME Grand Slam Finals, Wozniaki doesn't even do that, reaching 1 Grand Slam Final in 2009 in her career.
Why the media seem to gloss over this is beyond me- its not like she is blue eyed, blond, and supposedly attractive is it?!!
None of that matters here as to why I have picked her to win and cover the spread. Wozniaki has the perfect game plan to disrupt Daniela Hantuchova, making her play 1 shot more than the Slovakian would like and that has led to Wozniaki leading the head to head 3-0 and yet to drop a set.
In only 1 of the 6 sets competed has Hantuchova won more than 3 games and I think we may see more of the same tomorrow.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Martin Del Potro: Surprisingly they have put this on last on the Philippe Chatrier Court- that is the equivalent of going to a top quality restuaurant, being given a 4 course meal, and then the waiter brings out the lobster and cavier last and expects the diners to appreciate it!
The crowd have been quiet and filtering away by the time the last match starts on court, but they wont want to miss this fascinating battle.
Novak Djokovic is arguably in the position many thought Del Potro would be in after the latter's win at the US Open in 2009. Instead injuries have derailed his progress and now Del Potro will want to make a statement.
The problem for me is Del Potro has not really got the same consistency in his game as he did have 18 months ago and while I expect him to get it back, it seems too soon to expect him to knock off the supremely confident Djokovic.
However, Del Potro has enough in him to cause problems and I would not be surprised if he forces Djokovic to win in 4 good sets of tennis.
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Roger Federer has looked good so far this week as he makes easy progress through the draw, but now faces the man who pushed him to 5 sets in Australia in 2008.
Tipsarevic is a player that raises his game for the top players in the game, but clay is his weakest surface and makes me believe he wont be able to compete with Federer here. The Serb has losing records on the surface for the past 3 seasons before this one and it is hard to see him troubling Federer for long.
I expect the former World Number 1 to win this one in straight sets and cover the spread in the process.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to win vs Fabio Fognini: This is much to do with wanting to oppose Fognini as it is wanting to back Garcia-Lopez. Fognini may have dropped just 11 games on his way to Round 3, but I have a feeling he has just taken advantage of a really kind draw.
First he beat Denis Istomin who is having a bad season, and then Fognini knocked out Stephane Robert who obviously partied too hard after beating Tomas Berdych in Round 1.
Garcia-Lopez was particularly expended in Round 2 when he had to win 13-11 in the 5th set against Marsal Ilhan, but I think the Spaniard has been vastly underrated here.
Garcia-Lopez' best results do come on the surface and he has not had a losing record on the clay courts in main ATP tour matches since 2007. Fognini had a losing record just last season, and had lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface before this tournament began.
The head to head is 1-1, with Fognini winning on clay in 2008 and Garcia-Lopez winning on grass last season.
Personally I have more faith in Garcia-Lopez and think his odds should be much shorter.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.10 10Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez win @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.82 Units
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