The start of September is usually the slowest point of the football season for me personally as I hate making too many plays on international football, especially with the big mismatches in the Qualifying stages of competitions.
I have only the one pick today with a full preview accessible from the link:
Bulgaria v England (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11495-Bulgaria-v-England.htm)
MY PICK: Bulgaria-England Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
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Showing posts with label Pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pick. Show all posts
Friday, 2 September 2011
Saturday, 28 May 2011
French Open Day 8 Picks
I am writing this in my last spare time before the big Final this evening and know I wont be able to get back online (in a sober state anyway) before tomorrow afternoon so thought I would put my picks up for Sunday's day at the French Open.
My Day 7 Picks are mainly still running, but Djokovic completed the 3-1 set win. Mardy Fish, however, looked like a.... errrr.... hmmm... Fish out of water as he was being demolished by Gilles Simon and I expect that match is likely over as I write.
I will be back for Day 9 Picks when I will update the profit/loss column.
Now on to Day 8 Picks:
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Roger Federer looked really good in his win against Janko Tipsarevic, even though the 2nd set was a little tighter. He covered the spread in that Round and now faces his compratiot in Round 4.
Wawrinka showed his heart and desire again when coming from 2 sets down to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Round 3, but it will be interesting to see how he copes with Federer here.
Federer leads the head to head 10-1, and also leads 3-1 on clay courts after losing their first meeting on the surface.
Federer also beat Wawrinka by 8 games last year in this tournament and I think he can take advantage of the quicker conditions to record yet another win over the Swiss Number 2.
Marion Bartoli win 2-0 in sets vs Giselko Dulko: It was Dulko who took the headlines in the last Round by beating Sam Stosur, last year's runner up, in 3 sets, but I think it was Bartoli who had the more impressive win by knocking off Julia Goerges, one of the dark horses to win the tournament and arguably the women in the hottest form outside of Victoria Azarenka.
Bartoli has been pushed to 3 sets in every Round so far, but the home hope is still standing strong. She has a 4-0 head to head record against Dulko and is yet to drop a set to the Argentine.
To be fair, this is their first meeting on a clay court, but Bartoli has shown she is in form after reaching the Final in Strasbourg last week and should come through in straight sets.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I will admit that Daniela Hantuchova surprised me with her win over Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round, but this could represent a step up in class for her.
I was glad Hantuchova got through as I get another chance to watch her play, but Kuznetsova is a real threat to win this tournament having done so in 2009. The Russian has breezed through the tournament and lost just 11 games enroute to this match.
Kuznetsova also leads the head to head between the players 7-4, and has won both meetings on clay without losing a set.
Hantuchova took advantage of Wozniacki's 'get the ball into play' philosophy, but might find it hard to get past a player that will hit through the court.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marion Bartoli win 2-0 sets @ 2.38 Stan James (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
My Day 7 Picks are mainly still running, but Djokovic completed the 3-1 set win. Mardy Fish, however, looked like a.... errrr.... hmmm... Fish out of water as he was being demolished by Gilles Simon and I expect that match is likely over as I write.
I will be back for Day 9 Picks when I will update the profit/loss column.
Now on to Day 8 Picks:
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Roger Federer looked really good in his win against Janko Tipsarevic, even though the 2nd set was a little tighter. He covered the spread in that Round and now faces his compratiot in Round 4.
Wawrinka showed his heart and desire again when coming from 2 sets down to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Round 3, but it will be interesting to see how he copes with Federer here.
Federer leads the head to head 10-1, and also leads 3-1 on clay courts after losing their first meeting on the surface.
Federer also beat Wawrinka by 8 games last year in this tournament and I think he can take advantage of the quicker conditions to record yet another win over the Swiss Number 2.
Marion Bartoli win 2-0 in sets vs Giselko Dulko: It was Dulko who took the headlines in the last Round by beating Sam Stosur, last year's runner up, in 3 sets, but I think it was Bartoli who had the more impressive win by knocking off Julia Goerges, one of the dark horses to win the tournament and arguably the women in the hottest form outside of Victoria Azarenka.
Bartoli has been pushed to 3 sets in every Round so far, but the home hope is still standing strong. She has a 4-0 head to head record against Dulko and is yet to drop a set to the Argentine.
To be fair, this is their first meeting on a clay court, but Bartoli has shown she is in form after reaching the Final in Strasbourg last week and should come through in straight sets.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I will admit that Daniela Hantuchova surprised me with her win over Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round, but this could represent a step up in class for her.
I was glad Hantuchova got through as I get another chance to watch her play, but Kuznetsova is a real threat to win this tournament having done so in 2009. The Russian has breezed through the tournament and lost just 11 games enroute to this match.
Kuznetsova also leads the head to head between the players 7-4, and has won both meetings on clay without losing a set.
Hantuchova took advantage of Wozniacki's 'get the ball into play' philosophy, but might find it hard to get past a player that will hit through the court.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marion Bartoli win 2-0 sets @ 2.38 Stan James (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Barcelona v Manchester United Prediction
The intrigue is building ahead of this Final and I have to say it is almost a role reversal from two years ago.
Heading to Rome that year, every United fan I met was supremely confident that we were going to win the trophy, especially after keeping Barcelona scoreless in 2 Legs the season before. Even the Barcelona fans out in Rome were a little concerned about playing United, believing they were defensively sound and going to make it very hard for Barcelona to play their football.
The experts and media also had solidly got behind United and believed they were set to become the first team in 19 years to retain the Champions League... We all saw what happened though, and it was Barcelona who took the trophy home.
This time we are hearing all the same talk. One set of fans are supremely confident, the others a little more concerned. The media have also effectively crowned one team Kings of Europe before a ball has been kicked while some, like Gary Linekar, has almost suggested that that team needs only turn up and perform to normal standards to win the game.
However, this time its all about Barcelona.
It is hard to tell how they will cope with the expectation that is on the team. We may have seen a glimpse of what this game could become when watching the Barcelona-Real Madrid Copa Del Rey Final recently...
On that occasion, everyone expected Barcelona to win. However, Real Madrid set themselves up in a strong, disciplined, defensive shape and frustrated Barcelona by not allowing them to play their expansive brand of football.
I expect United to want to do the same here and the key will be to not concede an early goal. The Red Devils have played successfully against Arsenal sides in the past that play a similar brand of football as Barcelona, even if it is less effective in the most part, and so the players should have the experience of knowing what it will take.
Concentration, as Sir Alex has mentioned a few times, is the key to the game. If United can concentrate defensively, I really feel they can spring a surprise as the team do have goals in them against a less than stellar Barcelona defence.
The odds makers have been disrespectful to United's chances of winning this game and I am going to put minimum stakes on United causing a surprise, just as Barca did in 2009 against the 'expert' opinion, and keep the trophy in England.
MY PICK: Manchester United to win @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Heading to Rome that year, every United fan I met was supremely confident that we were going to win the trophy, especially after keeping Barcelona scoreless in 2 Legs the season before. Even the Barcelona fans out in Rome were a little concerned about playing United, believing they were defensively sound and going to make it very hard for Barcelona to play their football.
The experts and media also had solidly got behind United and believed they were set to become the first team in 19 years to retain the Champions League... We all saw what happened though, and it was Barcelona who took the trophy home.
This time we are hearing all the same talk. One set of fans are supremely confident, the others a little more concerned. The media have also effectively crowned one team Kings of Europe before a ball has been kicked while some, like Gary Linekar, has almost suggested that that team needs only turn up and perform to normal standards to win the game.
However, this time its all about Barcelona.
It is hard to tell how they will cope with the expectation that is on the team. We may have seen a glimpse of what this game could become when watching the Barcelona-Real Madrid Copa Del Rey Final recently...
On that occasion, everyone expected Barcelona to win. However, Real Madrid set themselves up in a strong, disciplined, defensive shape and frustrated Barcelona by not allowing them to play their expansive brand of football.
I expect United to want to do the same here and the key will be to not concede an early goal. The Red Devils have played successfully against Arsenal sides in the past that play a similar brand of football as Barcelona, even if it is less effective in the most part, and so the players should have the experience of knowing what it will take.
Concentration, as Sir Alex has mentioned a few times, is the key to the game. If United can concentrate defensively, I really feel they can spring a surprise as the team do have goals in them against a less than stellar Barcelona defence.
The odds makers have been disrespectful to United's chances of winning this game and I am going to put minimum stakes on United causing a surprise, just as Barca did in 2009 against the 'expert' opinion, and keep the trophy in England.
MY PICK: Manchester United to win @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Friday, 27 May 2011
French Open Day 6 Picks
We are already through 5 days of the tournament and it remains intriguing. The weather took a turn for the worse yesterday as the blustery conditions made it difficult for players to perform to the levels expected of them.
Rafael Nadal still looks a little uncomfortable in his surroundings, surprising considering the Spaniard has won the title 5 times previously. He struggled at times in his straight sets win over Pablo Andujar and has been on court an awful long time considering he is yet to compete in Round 3.
Nikolay Davydenko's surprise loss opens the door for Nadal who will meet Antonio Veic instead.
The biggest winner of the day may have been Andy Murray who struggled through his Round 2 match with Simone Bolelli. However, Jurgen Melzer, a prospective Quarter Final opponent, was beaten in 5 sets and the bottom half of Murray's Quarter has opened up considering Nicolas Almagro has already left the tournament.
With Michael Berrer next in line for the British Number 1, I very much expect Murray to negotiate the match and progress to at least the Semi Finals- he will not get a better chance here.
The Women's tournament was where the big surprises were in store- Kim Clijsters exited the tournament in 3 sets, even after holding match point in set 2, while Maria Sharapova can count her lucky stars that she is still in the tournament.
So far, the best looking player (in terms of ability and not looks) is Victoria Azarenka, one of the favourites at the start of the tournament and it is Azarenka who has benefited most from Clijster's exit.
The picks had another good day with both Mardy Fish and Ivan Ljubicic covering the set handicap after winning their matches in straight sets.
Gilles Simon made life a little more difficult for himself after losing the first set to Jeremy Chardy 4-6. However, he turned the match around with his consistency and came through 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 to cover the spread in the gloom of the Paris evening.
So on to Day 6 Picks:
Caroline Wozniaki - 4.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I have said many times, and I will say again, that Caroline Wozniaki is the worst Number 1 I have seen for some time. Dinara Safina had a lot of criticism in her time as Number 1, but at least she was reaching SOME Grand Slam Finals, Wozniaki doesn't even do that, reaching 1 Grand Slam Final in 2009 in her career.
Why the media seem to gloss over this is beyond me- its not like she is blue eyed, blond, and supposedly attractive is it?!!
None of that matters here as to why I have picked her to win and cover the spread. Wozniaki has the perfect game plan to disrupt Daniela Hantuchova, making her play 1 shot more than the Slovakian would like and that has led to Wozniaki leading the head to head 3-0 and yet to drop a set.
In only 1 of the 6 sets competed has Hantuchova won more than 3 games and I think we may see more of the same tomorrow.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Martin Del Potro: Surprisingly they have put this on last on the Philippe Chatrier Court- that is the equivalent of going to a top quality restuaurant, being given a 4 course meal, and then the waiter brings out the lobster and cavier last and expects the diners to appreciate it!
The crowd have been quiet and filtering away by the time the last match starts on court, but they wont want to miss this fascinating battle.
Novak Djokovic is arguably in the position many thought Del Potro would be in after the latter's win at the US Open in 2009. Instead injuries have derailed his progress and now Del Potro will want to make a statement.
The problem for me is Del Potro has not really got the same consistency in his game as he did have 18 months ago and while I expect him to get it back, it seems too soon to expect him to knock off the supremely confident Djokovic.
However, Del Potro has enough in him to cause problems and I would not be surprised if he forces Djokovic to win in 4 good sets of tennis.
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Roger Federer has looked good so far this week as he makes easy progress through the draw, but now faces the man who pushed him to 5 sets in Australia in 2008.
Tipsarevic is a player that raises his game for the top players in the game, but clay is his weakest surface and makes me believe he wont be able to compete with Federer here. The Serb has losing records on the surface for the past 3 seasons before this one and it is hard to see him troubling Federer for long.
I expect the former World Number 1 to win this one in straight sets and cover the spread in the process.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to win vs Fabio Fognini: This is much to do with wanting to oppose Fognini as it is wanting to back Garcia-Lopez. Fognini may have dropped just 11 games on his way to Round 3, but I have a feeling he has just taken advantage of a really kind draw.
First he beat Denis Istomin who is having a bad season, and then Fognini knocked out Stephane Robert who obviously partied too hard after beating Tomas Berdych in Round 1.
Garcia-Lopez was particularly expended in Round 2 when he had to win 13-11 in the 5th set against Marsal Ilhan, but I think the Spaniard has been vastly underrated here.
Garcia-Lopez' best results do come on the surface and he has not had a losing record on the clay courts in main ATP tour matches since 2007. Fognini had a losing record just last season, and had lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface before this tournament began.
The head to head is 1-1, with Fognini winning on clay in 2008 and Garcia-Lopez winning on grass last season.
Personally I have more faith in Garcia-Lopez and think his odds should be much shorter.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.10 10Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez win @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.82 Units
Rafael Nadal still looks a little uncomfortable in his surroundings, surprising considering the Spaniard has won the title 5 times previously. He struggled at times in his straight sets win over Pablo Andujar and has been on court an awful long time considering he is yet to compete in Round 3.
Nikolay Davydenko's surprise loss opens the door for Nadal who will meet Antonio Veic instead.
The biggest winner of the day may have been Andy Murray who struggled through his Round 2 match with Simone Bolelli. However, Jurgen Melzer, a prospective Quarter Final opponent, was beaten in 5 sets and the bottom half of Murray's Quarter has opened up considering Nicolas Almagro has already left the tournament.
With Michael Berrer next in line for the British Number 1, I very much expect Murray to negotiate the match and progress to at least the Semi Finals- he will not get a better chance here.
The Women's tournament was where the big surprises were in store- Kim Clijsters exited the tournament in 3 sets, even after holding match point in set 2, while Maria Sharapova can count her lucky stars that she is still in the tournament.
So far, the best looking player (in terms of ability and not looks) is Victoria Azarenka, one of the favourites at the start of the tournament and it is Azarenka who has benefited most from Clijster's exit.
The picks had another good day with both Mardy Fish and Ivan Ljubicic covering the set handicap after winning their matches in straight sets.
Gilles Simon made life a little more difficult for himself after losing the first set to Jeremy Chardy 4-6. However, he turned the match around with his consistency and came through 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 to cover the spread in the gloom of the Paris evening.
So on to Day 6 Picks:
Caroline Wozniaki - 4.5 games vs Daniela Hantuchova: I have said many times, and I will say again, that Caroline Wozniaki is the worst Number 1 I have seen for some time. Dinara Safina had a lot of criticism in her time as Number 1, but at least she was reaching SOME Grand Slam Finals, Wozniaki doesn't even do that, reaching 1 Grand Slam Final in 2009 in her career.
Why the media seem to gloss over this is beyond me- its not like she is blue eyed, blond, and supposedly attractive is it?!!
None of that matters here as to why I have picked her to win and cover the spread. Wozniaki has the perfect game plan to disrupt Daniela Hantuchova, making her play 1 shot more than the Slovakian would like and that has led to Wozniaki leading the head to head 3-0 and yet to drop a set.
In only 1 of the 6 sets competed has Hantuchova won more than 3 games and I think we may see more of the same tomorrow.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Martin Del Potro: Surprisingly they have put this on last on the Philippe Chatrier Court- that is the equivalent of going to a top quality restuaurant, being given a 4 course meal, and then the waiter brings out the lobster and cavier last and expects the diners to appreciate it!
The crowd have been quiet and filtering away by the time the last match starts on court, but they wont want to miss this fascinating battle.
Novak Djokovic is arguably in the position many thought Del Potro would be in after the latter's win at the US Open in 2009. Instead injuries have derailed his progress and now Del Potro will want to make a statement.
The problem for me is Del Potro has not really got the same consistency in his game as he did have 18 months ago and while I expect him to get it back, it seems too soon to expect him to knock off the supremely confident Djokovic.
However, Del Potro has enough in him to cause problems and I would not be surprised if he forces Djokovic to win in 4 good sets of tennis.
Roger Federer - 7 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Roger Federer has looked good so far this week as he makes easy progress through the draw, but now faces the man who pushed him to 5 sets in Australia in 2008.
Tipsarevic is a player that raises his game for the top players in the game, but clay is his weakest surface and makes me believe he wont be able to compete with Federer here. The Serb has losing records on the surface for the past 3 seasons before this one and it is hard to see him troubling Federer for long.
I expect the former World Number 1 to win this one in straight sets and cover the spread in the process.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to win vs Fabio Fognini: This is much to do with wanting to oppose Fognini as it is wanting to back Garcia-Lopez. Fognini may have dropped just 11 games on his way to Round 3, but I have a feeling he has just taken advantage of a really kind draw.
First he beat Denis Istomin who is having a bad season, and then Fognini knocked out Stephane Robert who obviously partied too hard after beating Tomas Berdych in Round 1.
Garcia-Lopez was particularly expended in Round 2 when he had to win 13-11 in the 5th set against Marsal Ilhan, but I think the Spaniard has been vastly underrated here.
Garcia-Lopez' best results do come on the surface and he has not had a losing record on the clay courts in main ATP tour matches since 2007. Fognini had a losing record just last season, and had lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface before this tournament began.
The head to head is 1-1, with Fognini winning on clay in 2008 and Garcia-Lopez winning on grass last season.
Personally I have more faith in Garcia-Lopez and think his odds should be much shorter.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 2.10 10Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez win @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.82 Units
Saturday, 21 May 2011
Jean Pascal v Bernard Hopkins II- May 21st 2011
The rematch for the WBC Light Heavyweight Title takes place on Saturday 21st May in Montreal after the quite astonishing draw from the first fight between these two men a few months ago.
On that occasion, Jean Pascal came out swinging in the early rounds and legitimately put Bernard Hopkins on his backside, but the later rounds were dominated by the wily veteran who aims to become the oldest World Champion in the history of this fine sport.
Hopkins should not be underestimated- for a fighter who lost his first professional fight to come back and have the career he has is quite a feat in itself. He seems to be getting better with age and is one of the best underdogs to have on your side.
Felix Trinidad, Kelly Pavlik and Antonio Tarver have all been defeated in fights where Hopkins was the underdog and who would back against him surprising again.
Jean Pascal is more famous in England and Europe for his tear-up with Carl Froch in December 2008, his sole loss. However, the Haitian is more famous on the other side of the Atlantic for dethroning Chad Dawson, one of the real up and coming stars of American boxing.
The fight should develop much more in the form of the latter rounds of their first encounter as Hopkins will now be aware of the punching power Pascal has in the early rounds. I expect the veteran to steer clear and box well in the early rounds and once again begin to dominate the latter stages of the fight.
George Foreman has been around in Hopkins' corner and suggests the older man will only get the title if he wins the fight by knockout.. I dont think it will need to come to that as Hopkins will once again show his superior talent and know-all to pull the decision.
The fight might not be the most exciting of the year, and I think the scorecards will read around 117-111 in Hopkins' favour.
There is a slight chance Hopkins does get the stoppage late as Pascal becomes a little wild trying to get the knockout he will need by the time the last 3 rounds begin, but after seeing him survive a punch-up with Carl Froch, I would be surprised to see him stopped.
MY PICK: Bernard Hopkins to WIN @ 2.4 Sporting Bet (2 UNITS)
On that occasion, Jean Pascal came out swinging in the early rounds and legitimately put Bernard Hopkins on his backside, but the later rounds were dominated by the wily veteran who aims to become the oldest World Champion in the history of this fine sport.
Hopkins should not be underestimated- for a fighter who lost his first professional fight to come back and have the career he has is quite a feat in itself. He seems to be getting better with age and is one of the best underdogs to have on your side.
Felix Trinidad, Kelly Pavlik and Antonio Tarver have all been defeated in fights where Hopkins was the underdog and who would back against him surprising again.
Jean Pascal is more famous in England and Europe for his tear-up with Carl Froch in December 2008, his sole loss. However, the Haitian is more famous on the other side of the Atlantic for dethroning Chad Dawson, one of the real up and coming stars of American boxing.
The fight should develop much more in the form of the latter rounds of their first encounter as Hopkins will now be aware of the punching power Pascal has in the early rounds. I expect the veteran to steer clear and box well in the early rounds and once again begin to dominate the latter stages of the fight.
George Foreman has been around in Hopkins' corner and suggests the older man will only get the title if he wins the fight by knockout.. I dont think it will need to come to that as Hopkins will once again show his superior talent and know-all to pull the decision.
The fight might not be the most exciting of the year, and I think the scorecards will read around 117-111 in Hopkins' favour.
There is a slight chance Hopkins does get the stoppage late as Pascal becomes a little wild trying to get the knockout he will need by the time the last 3 rounds begin, but after seeing him survive a punch-up with Carl Froch, I would be surprised to see him stopped.
MY PICK: Bernard Hopkins to WIN @ 2.4 Sporting Bet (2 UNITS)
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