Champions League Final 2018- Real Madrid v Liverpool (May 26th)

Champions League Final 2018- Real Madrid v Liverpool

I can't believe how many so called Manchester United fans are talking about 'wanting' to see Liverpool win the Champions League this weekend.

I can't imagine too many have actually been to see United play Liverpool and the way their European Cup success is used as a stick to beat us with else you would never think that is what you want let alone openly tell people.

I just don't get it.

Personally I have very little love for Real Madrid and was desperately hoping Bayern Munich beat them in the Semi Final as they deserved to but that was mainly because I also thought Bayern Munich had a 'better' chance of beating Liverpool of the two teams.

However it is what it is and while I think I am being overrun by the horrible feeling of inevitability this Liverpool run has had, I also believe in my gut that Real Madrid have enough to win the trophy on Saturday.

Expected Real Madrid Team: Navas, Carvajal, Marcelo, Varane, Ramos, Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Isco, Benzema and Ronaldo

Expected Liverpool Team: Karius, Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Lovren, Van Dijk, Henderson, Can, Milner, Mane, Salah, Firmino

This might not have been the Champions League Final that many predicted back in August, but it has the makings of a good one when Real Madrid meet Liverpool.

Real Madrid have plenty of recent pedigree in the competition as they have won three of the last four editions of the Champions League. There have been some questions raised in the performances of Real Madrid to get through to the Final this season, but what they have displayed is plenty of experience at key times of matches.

They have also rode their luck in the last couple of Rounds and you have to feel that luck is going to run out on them at some point.

A team like Liverpool have the capabilities to create chances and score against this Real Madrid team with the front three using a lot of pace and movement to put Real Madrid in some difficult positions. They will be encouraged by the chances and goals scored by Juventus and Bayern Munich against Real Madrid and the general style of play employed by the European Champions should suit Liverpool who will have spaces to exploit on the counter attack.

Much will depend on how well Liverpool cope with what is a very good Real Madrid attack, especially having seen the English side struggle to deal with Roma in the Semi Final Second Leg

The first goal feels like it is going to be very important as it will allow the team who scores it to take their time and look for the counter attacking opportunities.

My gut feeling for weeks has been Liverpool are going to win the Champions League, but I do wonder how much that has got to do with me being a Manchester United fan and preparing myself for what feels inevitable.

However Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 3 Finals and they are playing a team who have coped with these situations better than most. Real Madrid have to use all of their experience and they will create chances against Liverpool, but there is that fear that they will finally be exposed defensively and punished by a Liverpool attack who are fine finishers.

Even then you have to lean towards Real Madrid on their experience and ability to win the big competitions which has yet to be matched by Liverpool. I think the latter will play their part and this could be a high-scoring game like the Final was last year, but like last year the reigning Champions may have a little too much know-how for their opponents.


At odds against I will look for Real Madrid to win this one and I won't be surprised if the fixture producing at least four goals on the night. While the usual stance is that Finals produce tense matches, I think these teams match up well and 3 of the last 7 Champions League Finals have produced at least four goals in regulation time.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid to Win @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Real Madrid-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Champions League Final Pick 2017- Juventus vs Real Madrid (June 3rd)

Champions League Final 2017- Juventus vs Real Madrid

You can't have hoped for a much better Champions League Final with two famous European names trying to etch their name into the history books. The fans in Cardiff are going to have a spectacle to enjoy and I am a very much looking forward to this one.

That is partly down to selfish reasons as myself, and many other Manchester United fans, will be interested to see which team is going to be the opponent for the first game of the 2017/18 season when the European Super Cup is contested in Skopje, Macedonia in August.

Juventus

The pain of losing the Champions League Final in 2015 has inspired many of the Juventus squad who were involved two years ago. This competition has clearly been a big target for Juventus throughout the 2016/17 season and they have a chance of completing the 'Treble' having already secured Serie A and the Coppa Italia over the last month.

The sale of Paul Pogba meant Juventus were able to reinvest in the squad and the signings made have pushed the 'Old Lady' of Italian Football forward. The side are unbeaten in all 12 Champions League games played this season and they have won 9 of those games, while Juventus have beaten Porto, Barcelona and Monaco in the Knock Out Stages of the competition.

Juventus have lost 1 of their last 13 games in all competitions, but that hasn't prevented them securing another League title as well as the Italian Cup in that time. They have played well on their travels this season with Juventus unbeaten in 7 away Champions League ties and they have won 5 of 6 away from Turin in that competition this season. The side have won 3 of their last 6 away games overall and have lost 1 game in that time.

It looks like Juventus will have their squad all ready to go for this one.


Expected Juventus Line Up: Buffon, Barzagli, Chiellini, Bonucci, Dani Alves, Alex Sandro, Khedira, Pjanic, Mandzukic, Dybala and Higuain.

Real Madrid

A chance to win a third Champions League title in three seasons and the first club to win back to back European Cups since 1990 will cement this current Real Madrid squad of players in the history books. A club that has won eleven European Cups has many quality squads through the history, but this one will be ranked right up amongst the very best if they can win another Champions League title.

The Spanish Primera Division has already been secured, but Real Madrid pride themselves on how well they do in the Champions League and losing is simply not an option for them on Saturday. They had been unbeaten in 15 Champions League ties before losing 2-1 at Atletico Madrid in the Semi Final Second Leg, and Real Madrid have won 7 of their 12 Champions League games this season.

Real Madrid have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions with the sole exception being the loss in the Second Leg of their Champions League Semi Final after holding a 3-0 lead from the First Leg. They won those games under pressure to take the Spanish title too, while Real Madrid have won 11 of their last 12 games away from the Santiago Bernebeu.

The two week break between the final League game and the Champions League Final has given Real Madrid a chance to restore their squad to full fitness.


Expected Real Madrid Line Up: Navas, Carvajal, Marcelo, Varane, Ramos, Kroos, Modric, Casemiro, Isco, Ronaldo and Benzema.

Head to Head

This is the nineteenth meeting between two of Europe's biggest clubs.

2015 might not be looked back fondly by Juventus having lost in the Final of the Champions League, but they did beat Real Madrid 3-2 on aggregate in the Semi Final.

Juventus have now lost 1 of their last 7 games against Real Madrid going back to March 2005 and they have won 4 of those games.

Overall both teams have won 8 and lost 8 against each other from their previous 18 matches in European competition.


They have only met once in a Final before and that was in the Champions League Final of 1998 which was won 1-0 by Real Madrid in Amsterdam when they were the underdog.

Prediction

When you look back at the way the Champions League 2016/17 campaign went, I think it would be hard to argue that we haven't been given the best Final possible. Some Bayern Munich fans may disagree with that feeling, but Juventus versus Real Madrid is a fitting conclusion to the season with all eyes turned to Cardiff.

This is a chance for Real Madrid to really cement their place in the record books with three titles in four years a chance to underline their dominance. They haven't always had things going their own way in that time having needed an injury time goal to secure a spot in extra time in 2014 and then needing a penalty shoot out to win the Champions League in 2016.

On the other hand, Juventus are looking for redemption after falling in the Final in 2015 to Barcelona, but they look a team that is playing with more confidence at this moment. Winning the title in Italy has become the norm for this set of players, but winning the Champions League will be a huge achievement for Juventus and one they are desperate to complete.

It makes this a fascinating Final with the feeling being how Real Madrid's attack is going to cope with Juventus' defensive skills. Juventus did have 6 consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League, which included 5 in a row in the Knock Out Stage, before Monaco scored consolation in the Semi Final Second Leg, but I think that hides some of their attacking potential.

Just ask Barcelona if Juventus are not clinical in the final third and this is a team who have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 8 Champions League games. They will certainly feel the Real Madrid defensive weakness can be exploited with speedy counter attacking through Paulo Dybala and the finishing of Gonzalo Higuain, a player who is facing his former club.

There will be opportunities for Juventus as we have seen Real Madrid struggle to contain teams when they do have a go at them. They will look to the way Atletico Madrid have had success against Real Madrid in recent years with a similar brand of football as Juventus, although Juventus may even feel their defence is actually a lot stronger than Atletico Madrid's.

However, when you have the attacking talent that Real Madrid clearly have, you have to think there will be chances for them too. Anyone who did see the two Juventus versus Barcelona ties in the Quarter Final should have noted the number of chances that Barcelona actually created, but poor finishing let them down on both days.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been in stunning form in the Knock Out Stage of the Champions League and I am not sure he will be as loose in front of goal as the Barcelona forwards were. That should mean Real Madrid pose a real threat too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals in this Final.

I think that will happen, but I am also very much leaning towards Juventus just having a little bit more overall. While I do think Real Madrid will have chances, I think Juventus' attacking potential is being hugely under-rated and they can beat Real Madrid in a manner that Atletico Madrid have provided the blueprint for over the last few seasons.

This Real Madrid defence can be stretched and Juventus have shown they can be very good going forward throughout the Champions League campaign. I think they can defend well enough to earn those counter attacking opportunities and it has felt like Juventus have been so focused on this Champions League tilt that they are going to be very ready to go.


You can't rule out Real Madrid finding a way as they have in 2014 and 2016 when looking down and out, but Juventus are a huge price to win this one in normal time. I think they find a way to do that and I will back the Old Lady to join Manchester United on three European Cup triumphs with a win in normal time of this Final.

I also think you can't ignore the price for at least three goals to be shared out as both teams should have the chances in front of goal in this one. I think it will end up being 2-1 to someone in what looks like will be good conditions for football on Saturday without the wetness of rain and with temperatures reasonable.

The layers just look to have underestimated the Juventus attack with that being the reason they have priced up goals so big, but I think Juventus are better going forward than people think with the defence getting all the plaudits.

I also think Real Madrid will create chances like Barcelona did and I expect a more clinical reaction to those than their great rivals had.

MY PICKS: Juventus to Win @ 3.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Champions League Final 2016 (May 28th)

The Champions League Final is once again going to be competed by Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid for the second time in three years.

Can Atletico Madrid earn a measure of revenge for the late way they were denied in Lisbon, or will Real Madrid make it eleven times a European Cup winner? We will find out on Saturday in Milan.

Real Madrid

If you go back around five months, I don't think there would have been many people tipping Real Madrid to win too many trophies come the end of the season as Barcelona steam-rolled all around them. The last couple of months has seen a real upturn in form that saw Real Madrid only just miss out on winning La Liga from under their great rivals' noses, but now they have a chance of winning the biggest competition in European Football.

This is the second time in three years that Real Madrid have reached the Champions League Final and two years ago they won their 10th European Cup under Carlo Ancelotti. Now Zinedine Zidane looks to write his name in the Real Madrid history books by winning the Champions League as a player and then as a manager of the club.

Real Madrid have been beaten in 1 of their 12 Champions League games this season, but they have only just got through the last couple of Rounds. After losing 2-0 in Wolfsburg, Real Madrid beat the German side 3-2 on aggregate in the Quarter Final before a narrow 1-0 win on aggregate over Manchester City in the Semi Final.

Form has not been an issue for Real Madrid to close out the season as they are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss in Wolfsburg. Real Madrid have won 9 of those 10 games and have won 4 in a row since the goalless draw with Manchester City at The Etihad Stadium in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg.

The big news out of Madrid is the injury scare suffered by Cristiano Ronaldo, although the Portuguese superstar has said he will not miss the Final. Raphael Varane has been ruled out.

Atletico Madrid

All credit has to be given to Diego Simeone for the job he has been doing as manager of Atletico Madrid as his side look for revenge for their Champions League Final defeat to Real Madrid two seasons ago. Simeone might be one of the sought after names in management, but his loyalty to Atletico Madrid has to be admired, while an ability to replace the top names that have left the club and to maintain standards is a testament to the job he has done at the Vicente Calderon.

There will be some history that Atletico Madrid are trying to make as the club have lost both of their previous European Cup Finals and will be looking to win the competition for the first time. The defeat to Real Madrid two years ago was particularly galling as Atletico led with just a couple of minutes left in the game before falling apart in extra time and many of those players are still in the Atletico squad.

No one will be able to say Atletico Madrid don't deserve to win the Champions League if they do go on and take the trophy home in Milan. The side have already beaten the two previous favourites in Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Quarter Final and Semi Final respectively so going into this one as the underdog will hold no fear for Simeone or his players.

Atletico Madrid had won 7 games in a row in all competitions before suffering back to back away losses at Levante and Bayern Munich, the former effectively ending their La Liga title hopes. There have been two weeks for Atletico Madrid to prepare for the Champions League Final and they did end the season with a 2-0 home win over Celta Vigo.


Tiago has been out since November but did play against Celta Vigo so should be in the squad for the Final.

Head to Head

Atletico Madrid scored late to earn a 1-1 home draw with Real Madrid in the League, but they did win 0-1 at the Santiago Bernebeu in February.


These are closely matched teams with the last four games producing a total of four goals.

Prediction

For the second time in three seasons, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will take their city rivalry onto the European stage as they contest the Champions League Final. The philosophies of the two clubs might be at opposite spectrums, but both have been very successful with the way they want to impose their game on opponents and it will be the team that manages to do that who will win this game.

There is some revenge at play for Atletico Madrid.

Two years ago they led going into injury time of the Champions League Final before a Sergio Ramos equaliser. Diego Godin has admitted it took some time to get over that disappointment as Atletico Madrid had nothing left to give in injury time in an eventual 4-1 loss to Real Madrid.

Winning this in 90 minutes is the key for Atletico Madrid this time in Milan too. The defensive concentration and hard work is tough enough to maintain over that time, but the extra thirty minutes in extra time can prove critical as they did in 2014 and Diego Simeone might be a little more cautious with his substitutions this year.

Confidence shouldn't be an issue for Atletico Madrid who have beaten both Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the last two Rounds to reach the Final. One concern might be that they lost both away ties in that one as they won't have the passion from the Vicente Calderon stands to call upon in this one, but Atletico Madrid also got the better of Real Madrid in their two League games.

After saying all that, it is hard not to be seduced into backing Real Madrid thanks to the attacking talent at their disposal. The injury sustained by Cristiano Ronaldo is a big concern, but I can't see him missing this game and Real Madrid should be able to call upon their Portuguese superstar as well as Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale.

Those trio of players can create a moment of magic to win any game, but I think Atletico Madrid are used to dealing with them which is a huge mental advantage. Not facing them regularly could be intimidating, but Diego Simeone and his players should be completely at ease in knowing what they need to do to give themselves the best chance to win.

And Atletico Madrid do have players like Antoine Griezmann who have the potential to be a match winner too.

My feeling is that Atletico Madrid might have learned something from two seasons ago and I do think they can cause the upset in this one. They've done that in two straight Rounds and I think this can underline the superlative job that Simeone has done at the Vicente Calderon by winning the Champions League.


There will be scares and some desperate defending, but this is a team that has shown they can do that with their win at the Santiago Bernebeu in February. I do think Atletico Madrid have to win this in 90 minutes, or hope to have the energy to last to penalties, and I will back the underdogs for a small interest.



Earlier in the day on Saturday, the 'Richest Game in Football' will also be played in the Championship Play Off Final between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday.

I think those teams are very closely matched and we could see extra time and potentially penalties in that one if I am correct in my prediction which can be found below.

Hull City v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The Championship Play Off Final has regularly been described as the 'richest game in football', but even that tagline might have to be changed to describe the new financial rewards the Premier League will have next season.

While the players don't worry about off the field finances, there is no doubting there will be tension in this fixture as both Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday will be desperate to get back into the Premier League.

Both League games have been closely contested affairs and it is hard to see the Wembley Play Off Final being much different. Draws have been something like a Sheffield Wednesday speciality this season and I think they will make sure they are hard to beat in this one and hope to frustrate Hull City into a mistake.

Both teams have played better in front of their own fans through the last few weeks of the season and the last few Play Off Finals have proven to be tight affairs right down to the end. In fact a couple of the recent ones have needed goals in the final few minutes to decide them and I think this one is going to be very close too.

Picking a winner isn't as easy as the layers think with Hull City as a relatively strong favourite to win in ninety minutes. Personally I think we are going to need more time to separate the teams and backing the draw for a small interest is my call for the early game on Saturday prior to the Champions League Final.

MY PICK: Atletico Madrid @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Hull City-Sheffield Wednesday Draw @ 3.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Champions League Final 2015- Juventus v Barcelona (June 6th 2015)

Champions League Final

Juventus v Barcelona

Olympiastadion, Berlin

Saturday 6th June 2015

Juventus

The recovery of Juventus from the dark days of Serie B can be completed on Saturday as they take on Barcelona in the Champions League Final. They have already proven themselves back in Italy where they have won Serie A yet again, but finishing up the season with the treble and finally being on top of the European perch for the first time since 1996 would be beautiful for Juventus thirty years after the tragedy in Heysel.

After finishing 2nd in a Group containing Atletico Madrid, Juventus were the favourites in ties against Borussia Dortmund and Monaco, but not many would have predicted them knocking out Real Madrid in the Champions League Semi Final. It would have seemed even less likely after Juventus travelled to the Spanish capital having secured a 2-1 home win with that away goal expected to be critical, but now they have to prove themselves all over again against the best Spanish football can offer.

Juventus have won 9 in a row in all competitions since their surprising 2-1 defeat at local rivals Torino and they have completed the Serie A and Coppa Italia double in that time. Performances haven't been the best in recent weeks as the concentration and focus has shifted towards the Champions League Final and that has shown with 4 draws in their last 6 games heading into Berlin.

Barcelona

If you go back to the start of January and Barcelona were just coming off a 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad, this side would not have been the favourites to win any of the three competitions they were still playing in. However Luis Enrique has recovered from that low point of his managerial first season at the Nou Camp and has got Barcelona playing the best football in Europe as they look to complete the treble and emulate Pep Guardiola's sides of recent years.

The goals have been flowing and Barcelona have shown how strong they are in the Champions League for much of the season. After finishing above Paris Saint-Germain in the Group Stage, Barcelona have beaten Manchester City and PSG in the next two Rounds of the competition before facing Guardiola and Bayern Munich. Even their former manager couldn't slow them down as Barcelona thumped Bayern Munich at home before allowing the Germans to win the Second Leg after a couple of away goals virtually assured Barcelona's place in Berlin.

The Catalan giants have lost just 1 of their last 22 games in all competitions and completed the domestic double last weekend with a 3-1 win over Athletic Bilbao in the Copa Del Rey Final. Barcelona have won 10 of their last 12 games in all competitions and are strong favourites to win in Berlin.

Prediction

This has the look of a fascinating European Cup Final between two big European names and Berlin is the lucky venue to host Juventus and Barcelona as both look to complete a famous treble.

A lot will be made of Juventus' win over Real Madrid in the Champions League Semi Final, but the 10 time European Champions were not playing at the same level as this Barcelona team and it is a completely different test. For example, the Juventus defence will be faced by a front three that have all been in very strong form, unlike Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema at Real Madrid.

Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez have the pace to really trouble a Juventus defence that did offer Real Madrid chances in the Second Leg if only Bale had better fortunes in front of goal that evening. Doing the same against this Barcelona team will be a big problem for Juventus as those front three are scoring plenty of goals and come in with some real confidence.

It will be down to Juventus to use their powerful midfield to try and constrict the space to feed the Barcelona front three, but even that might be more of an issue than previous years. While Barcelona have been known to build patiently through Andres Iniesta and Xavi in previous years, they are a much more direct team these days and can by-pass the Juventus strength to get at a defence that lacks speed.

On the other hand, I think the midfield led by Paul Pogba and Claudio Marchisio have the athleticism to push Juventus forward and attack the most vulnerable part of the Barcelona team which remains in their defensive areas. The set pieces are also key for this Juventus team which are 'bigger' than their opponents and that is where Barcelona are likely to be troubled the most.

However, I can't ignore the chances that Juventus gave Real Madrid in the Second Leg and this Barcelona team seem to be stronger going into the final game of the season. Juventus have had a great season, but they have shown some tiredness in their play and going against Barcelona can be physically wearing.

The first goal, as the cliche goes, is very important, but I think Barcelona will eventually prove too good as their front three continues to face up the Juventus defence. A late counter-attack may be required to finish the Italian Champions off, but I like Barcelona to win this one by a couple of goals and confirm they are the best Europe has to offer right now.

MY PICK: Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2014- Champions League Final (May 24-26)

The World Cup is fast approaching now and much of the media attention has turned to the festival of football that begins in a little under three weeks from now, but first there is the small matter of the 'richest game in football' as the Championship Play Off Final is contested and the European Champions League Final to be completed.

Both of those games look like making fantastic viewing on Saturday, but there will still be a couple of other loose ends to tie up before the end of the Bank Holiday as both League One and League Two Play Off Finals will also be completed.


It has been a decent season and one that improved on last year which is all you can hope for, but football is always a tough sport to end with a winning performance. May has been a solid month too and will hopefully end this weekend with a final flurry of positive results that ensures another winning month.

That'll keep the season results intact and I can then begin concentrating on the World Cup which I will have any outright picks and previews of the Group out the weekend before the event begins.


Derby County v Queens Park Rangers Pick: The Championship Play Off Final has been called the 'richest game in football' because of the vast financial incentives on offer for playing in the Premier League as shown by what Cardiff City received this season despite finishing bottom of the table.

Both clubs could be set up even with one season in the top flight, but both Derby County and Queens Park Rangers have bigger ambitions than a sole season in the Premier League. They have two managers that have coached at extremely high levels with Steve McClaren a former England manger and also having won titles in Holland and Germany while guiding Middlesbrough to a UEFA Cup Final.

Harry Redknapp had vast success with Tottenham Hotspur in reaching a Champions League Quarter Final and also won the FA Cup with Portsmouth and both managers will feel they should be coaching in the Premier League.

However, it is up to the players on the field to perform on Saturday in what is a tense game with so much hard work being put into getting into this position. A long season can feel a total disappointment if promotion is not achieved now and that is where Queens Park Rangers may have the edge in terms of their player experience.

On the other hand, Derby County have youth and pace on their side and they have scored so many goals that they will feel they can punish Queens Park Rangers in this one. Derby County have been in better form heading into the Play Offs and were much more impressive in their Semi Final win over Brighton than QPR were against Wigan Athletic.

The feeling is also that Derby have enough confidence and goals that they could potentially recover even if they fell behind in the game, while Queens Park Rangers could also be exposed on the bigger pitch with older legs in the team.

One other factor could be that Steve McClaren actually worked with Queens Park Rangers to open this season before taking the Derby County job- that inside information may help him form enough of a tactical game plan to earn an advantage in this Final.

Over the last eight years, the team that has finished 3rd in the Championship has won promotion through the Play Offs five times and Derby County have looked the better team. That just helps lead me to backing the Rams to get back to the top flight and help Steve McClaren earn a little more redemption in his reputation with the fans in England.


Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Champions League Final Pick: This looks to be the Final that made the most sense with the way these teams have played in the Champions League this season and there are so many stories surrounding the game.

Can Real Madrid win their tenth European Cup, the first team to reach double digits, or can Atletico Madrid do the 'impossible double' of winning the top European trophy and adding it to the La Liga title they won last weekend?

Most people seem to be expecting a tight battle in this Final, but their previous meetings this season suggests it may be a little more exciting than that. The only issue is that both teams like to play a counter-attacking brand of football and might be worrying about over-committing when they do have the ball in possession.

Real Madrid have the individuals that can create a bit of magic in Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, although there are question as to how healthy they are having missed a few games at the end of the season. However, it is too simplistic to think of them as a team of individuals with the way Carlo Ancelotti has set them up and made Real Madrid a solid, organised team.

The absence of Xabi Alonso is a big miss for Real Madrid, but Atletico Madrid could be missing Diego Costa who is arguably more important to their style of play. Diego Simeone has done an excellent job of plugging the gaps and the team is set up to play together that they can make up for pieces that are missing, but Costa's goals are going to be hard to replace.

Atletico Madrid have shown no fear of playing the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid this season, except in the Copa Del Rey Semi Final when the latter proved to be too good. I expect Atletico will try and make life difficult for Real Madrid and the possession should be dominated by the latter, but this will come down to the chances and who is more likely to take those.

If Costa is missing, or not at 100%, Atletico Madrid may find it harder to finish off their opportunities, while a returning Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to add to the 16 Champions League goals he already has. I also believe Real Madrid have been preparing for this game ever since they beat Bayern Munich in the Semi Final and Atletico Madrid have had to tough out the Spanish title race.

I believe a moment of magic will end up handing the Champions League trophy to Real Madrid for the tenth time.

MY PICKS: Derby County @ 2.40 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Real Madrid @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

May Update: 12-13, + 6.60 Units (44 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

UEFA Champions League Final 2013 Pick

It has been a good year for the Champions League, for the most part, and we have seen a lot of decent games and top performances from sides and I don't think too many people would argue with the two teams that will be contesting the Final on Saturday 25th May at Wembley Stadium.

Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund were considered amongst the favourites to win the competition by the end of the Group Stage and both have put together some impressive wins to get here.

There has been the controversy in the tournament, and I am still not happy with the way the last ever Champions League campaign for Sir Alex Ferguson was ended. It was a poor decision to send of Nani in the loss to Real Madrid and it is no surprise that the manager was as devastated as he was if he had really made the decision to bow out at the end of season back in December as he has stated.


Now all of that will be forgotten as the two best teams in the Bundesliga and, arguably, the two best teams in Europe this season will meet in the Final on English soil.


Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich Pick: This is the first ever all-German European Cup Final and only the fourth time in the almost 60 years the competition has been run that two teams from the same domestic League will contest the Final.

Real Madrid met Valencia in 2000 and were comfortable winners on that day, but the games between AC Milan-Juventus and Manchester United-Chelsea were both settled on penalties. There is no doubt in my mind that games between domestic rivals, particularly with so much at stake, can descend into wanting 'to avoid defeat' contests.

Neither team would want to lose to the other and that may make this a tight game, rather than the expansive one we are all looking forward to. Also look at their games from this season- these sides have met four times this season with the scores being two 1-1 draws in the League and two Bayern Munich wins in the Cup (2-1 and 1-0 scores).

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are certainly evenly matched and they will be all too aware of the strengths and weaknesses of each side.

The absence of Mario Gotze does hurt Dortmund in this game, while they will also feel the pressure of wanting to win this competition with the 'small window of opportunity' they usually have. Back in 1997 their side won the Champions League, but began to lose players to 'bigger' clubs and with Gotze already signing with Bayern Munich, there are rumours that Robert Lewandowski will also be leaving this summer.

That brings a pressure of its own as Dortmund will want to rubber stamp this period in their history by adding the Champions League to the back to back Bundesliga titles they have won in the last couple of seasons.

On the other hand, Bayern Munich have to exorcise the ghosts that have seen them lose at this stage of the Champions League in 2010 and 2012, the latter coming in heart-breaking fashion in their own stadium. I have no doubt that their players will also be feeling the burden of trying to overcome those losses, but the experience may also prove to be crucial in the game.

Both sides will be confident of their chances and I do think this is going to be a lot closer than the odds are suggesting with Bayern Munich being pounded all week. I do believe most have got it right by picking the Bavarian giants to finally add another European Cup to their trophy cabinet, but I can't see this ending in a comfortable win.

I think it will be tight throughout, and may take one moment of magic to separate the sides. Backing Bayern Munich to win their third Cup tie against Dortmund by a one goal margin looks the call, although I would recommend keeping units to a minimum.


MY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL PICK: Bayern Munich to win by one goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Champions League Final 2012

The Champions League Final is in Munich this year and at least one of these teams has to be considered a real surprise Finalist. When the draw for the Quarter Finals were made, I think the majority of people out there would have thought this was going to be a Final between the two Spanish giants of Real Madrid and Barcelona, but both were ousted by Bayern Munich and Chelsea at the Semi Final stage.

I think the two teams need to be given absolute credit for reaching this stage and it is no surprise that Bayern Munich are considered the favourites with the Final taking place in their home stadium, but the last team given this right was Roma back in 1984 and they failed to win that Final against another English side, Liverpool.

Below you will find my keys to the game and what I believe will be the decisive factor when it is all said and done. I will also post a link to my preview of the game and my pick from the Final.

Keys to the Final

Can Chelsea defend as they did in the Semi Final: Chelsea were rightly given a lot of praise for their win over Barcelona in the Semi Finals, but I think they were given a little too much for their defensive performance as they did afford the Catalan club a number of chances to score in both legs, although the second half performance in the second leg with ten men was more than admirable.

Defending Bayern Munich in that manner may lead to more problems for Chelsea as they will be dealing with front man in Mario Gomez that Barcelona do not have. Gomez is very much a striker that will look to get on the end of chances and also gives Bayern a 'Plan B' as he is very good in the air and that is an element that Barcelona do not have.

That also meant that Chelsea could defend much narrower in the Semi Final with the confidence that Barcelona would not launch balls into the box and, even if they did, that they could defend anything that came in there. But Chelsea are missing some big defenders and that leads me to the second key for the game.

How will Chelsea cope in the absence of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic: Both teams are misisng some players through suspension, but these two could be the absolute key for the London club as that means the likes of Gary Cahill and David Luiz are likely to make up the back four, two players that have not played much football recently through injury.

Without the calming influence Terry provides (at least when he is not kneeing opponents in the backside), it is going to be a tougher day in the office for the defence, while David Luiz in particular  has to show the discipline he did in the latter half of the season rather than what he was showing earlier in the campaign.

With the Bayern Munich wingers, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, being their main dangers, that is where the absence of Branislav Ivanovic could be huge as Paulo Ferriera or Jose Bosingwa, his most likely replacements, are a huge drop off in terms of defending class compared with the Serbian.

An unfamiliar back four is not the ideal way any team would want to start a Champions League Final.

The Midfield Battle: This is another area where Chelsea will be missing some key personnel like Ramires and Raul Meireles, but this is also a position where Bayern Munich will be missing Luis Gustavo who did a lot of good work in the Semi Final against Real Madrid.

The problem for Chelsea is they are missing two of their more dynamic central midfield players and they could find it hard to keep tabs on the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos when Bayern are on the attack.

Midfield is always an important part of any football game and it does seem that the German side have the edge in that department. Chelsea will need Frank Lampard, who will be Captain for the day, at his very best, but I do worry about the impact Jon Mikel Obi can have in a game of this magnitude.

Problems earlier in the season for Chelsea can from a tired looking midfield and that is something I worry about them here. I don't think they have the legs required there to keep the roaming Bayern players at bay.

However, the Bavarians will be missing Gustavo and he is the main player that looks to break the play for them. This will give Chelsea the chance to spring some counter attacks and try and expose a Munich defence that isn't the best.

Chelsea have to be quick on the counter and take any half chances coming their way: Much as they did against Barcelona, Chelsea need to make maximum use of the counter attack, and they have to take any chances that land to them.

Let's face facts- they literally had about 4 chances against Barcelona in the Semi Final and were very efficient by taking 3 of them, but they will need that type of production if they are going to win this Final.

I expect they will look to contain Bayern for large parts of this game, so they have to make full use of the speed they are likely to employ in wide positions and hope Didier Drogba is in the same mood he was for the Barcelona games in what could be his final appearance for the Blues.

The Bayern Munich defence is definitely the weakest aspect of their team and, like Chelsea, they are missing a couple of key players in Holger Badstuber and David Alaba. This is an area that Chelsea will be able to exploit as long as they are efficient and making the right decisions when they do have the ball going forward.

Dealing with the expectation: This is a big emotional factor in the game- all season, Bayern Munich have spoken about getting to the Final that will be held in their own Stadium and now that they are here, the question has to be asked as to how she deals with the expectations of their supporters and upper levels of management.

Bayern are the favourites almost every where you look and that is a big expectation to deal with for the players as they enter the biggest match of their careers (for a lot of them at least).

How they deal with it is a tough question to answer- I can tell you after I watch the game, but there is no real telling before kick off.but this will be a big key in the contest.

I will be expecting Bayern to make a fast start and try and ease their own nerves, but nerves do lead to mistakes and they have to be careful not to overplay the game in their minds.

Luck: Sometimes all you need is luck (I think that's what the Beatles were singing about)... Chelsea have had their fair share of luck already in this tournament, but they could win the trophy if they haven't used it all up.

Chelsea were fortunate in games against Napoli and even Barcelona to a certain extent, but that doesn't mean it is due to run out. I remember Manchester United's run to the 1999 Champions League trophy and we had our fair share of luck in wins over Inter Milan, Juventus and then against Bayern Munich in the Final when we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals down.

Is it their destiny to win the Champions League? I guess we will find out on Saturday.

Predicted Teams

Bayern Munich: Neuer, Contento, Lahm, Boateng, Tymoschchuk, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Pranjic, Robben, Ribery and Gomez (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Cole, Cahill, Luiz, Mikel, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Kalou and Drogba (4-3-3)

Preview

You can find my full preview of this game and why I am picking what I am here (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14299-Bayern-Munich-v-Chelsea.htm)


MY PICK: Bayern Munich @ 1.80 Coral (3 Units)

Tennis Picks 12th June 2011

It was a good day yesterday as both picks came in as winners. Andy Murray put in his strongest performance of the season to crush Andy Roddick in 2 straightforward sets before Philipp Petzschner shocked Tomas Berdych in 3 sets at the tournament in Halle.

That means we are having another profitable week following the successes at the French Open and I will look to end the week on a good note.

The tournaments in Eastbourne and s-Hertogenbosch are due to start their main draws tomorrow with a couple of matches in each event, but I wont start backing anything until Monday as none of the games interest me tomorrow.


Queens
Andy Murray - 3.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I thought long and hard about this match as I feel Murray will not play to the same level as he did against Andy Roddick, and will also be dealing with a player in the form of Tsonga that is playing some good tennis of late.

However, I do feel Murray is serving particularly well this week and I also believe he will earn more chances as he is the better returner.

Tsonga will make life difficult with his big groundstrokes and by attacking the net, but I feel he has too many lapses in sets that Murray can take advantage of.

Murray leads the head to head 4-2, including a win at Wimbledon last year in the Quarter Finals. Interestingly, they met on grass during a Nottingham Challenger in 2004- that was won by Tsonga.

It is possible the match goes the distance, but I just feel Murray is too consistent for Tsonga at this moment of time and will do enough to cover the spread.


Birmingham
Daniela Hantuchova - 2.5 games vs Sabine Lisicki: Daniela Hantuchova showed some real spirit in beating Ana Ivanovic in the Semi Final yesterday, overcoming a 1 set deficit and a rain delay to win in 3 sets. Hantuchova also served well when the big points came along, saving 12 bps in the final 2 sets and not losing her serve. The Slovakian also has a solid grass court pedigree.

Lisicki has seen her career hit a buffer thanks to bad form and recovering from an injury. She is a former Wimbledon Quarter Finalist, but has not had much success on the grass other than this tournament. She has also had a tough year so far and faces an opponent in form.

Hantuchova won their only other meeting on the fast indoor hard courts and must feel the title is here for the taking.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 10.03 Units (+ 4.08 Units yesterday)

Barcelona v Manchester United Prediction

The intrigue is building ahead of this Final and I have to say it is almost a role reversal from two years ago.

Heading to Rome that year, every United fan I met was supremely confident that we were going to win the trophy, especially after keeping Barcelona scoreless in 2 Legs the season before. Even the Barcelona fans out in Rome were a little concerned about playing United, believing they were defensively sound and going to make it very hard for Barcelona to play their football.

The experts and media also had solidly got behind United and believed they were set to become the first team in 19 years to retain the Champions League... We all saw what happened though, and it was Barcelona who took the trophy home.

This time we are hearing all the same talk. One set of fans are supremely confident, the others a little more concerned. The media have also effectively crowned one team Kings of Europe before a ball has been kicked while some, like Gary Linekar, has almost suggested that that team needs only turn up and perform to normal standards to win the game.

However, this time its all about Barcelona.

It is hard to tell how they will cope with the expectation that is on the team. We may have seen a glimpse of what this game could become when watching the Barcelona-Real Madrid Copa Del Rey Final recently...

On that occasion, everyone expected Barcelona to win. However, Real Madrid set themselves up in a strong, disciplined, defensive shape and frustrated Barcelona by not allowing them to play their expansive brand of football.

I expect United to want to do the same here and the key will be to not concede an early goal. The Red Devils have played successfully against Arsenal sides in the past that play a similar brand of football as Barcelona, even if it is less effective in the most part, and so the players should have the experience of knowing what it will take.

Concentration, as Sir Alex has mentioned a few times, is the key to the game. If United can concentrate defensively, I really feel they can spring a surprise as the team do have goals in them against a less than stellar Barcelona defence.

The odds makers have been disrespectful to United's chances of winning this game and I am going to put minimum stakes on United causing a surprise, just as Barca did in 2009 against the 'expert' opinion, and keep the trophy in England.


MY PICK: Manchester United to win @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)