French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2025 (Sunday 25th May)

There are going to be a lot of wondering eyes in Paris with the Champions League Final coming up next weekend that features Paris Saint-Germain, but the start of the French Open is still a huge part of the sporting calendar in the French capital.

Tennis fans will also be very interested as the second Grand Slam of the season gets underway and it looks like a tournament that could be pretty open.

Carlos Alcaraz has made a statement ahead of the defence of his title and looks the right favourite, while Aryna Sabalenka can say the same in the women's tournament.

The poor form of Iga Swiatek, nicknamed the Queen of Clay, has opened the door for a potential new Champion here and the World Number 1 looks best placed to take advantage. There will be plenty of people raising an eyebrow about the form of Swiatek, especially as she has not looked the same since a failed drugs test at the end of last season.

Some will say it is the mental burden of having to prove herself as someone who has not been cheating, but sceptics may say that the Pole had not been playing clean before popping and the poor form underlines their feelings about the former World Number 1.

It does look like a Grand Slam where the two favourites can come out on top, but the French Open is a tough event to negotiate. Clay matches can end up going a lot longer than expected and there are players like Jannik Sinner, Mirra Andreeva, Coco Gauff, and Novak Djokovic who should not be ruled out.

Novak Djokovic has been struggling with his form, but has put some wins on the board in Geneva to restore confidence and is only a few months on from winning the Olympic Gold Medal right here in Roland Garros. His previous performances at the French Open makes the veteran a dangerous player in the draw and the hope is that the next two weeks are a lot of fun for the fans and organisers.

The French Open is another Grand Slam that has moved to the Sunday start time with the First Round of the tournament split over three days.

We have a solid looking schedule on Day 1 of the tournament and the Picks can be read below.

After a decent Australian Open and strong results over much of the last four months, the Season Totals remain in a good spot, but with more than half o the season to go.

In recent years, the French Open has perhaps been the most consistent of the Grand Slam tournaments in terms of the profit/loss and laying a strong foundation for success through the first week of the event is the ambition. The shortlisting of selections have worked out pretty well so far in 2025 after a really disappointing 2024 and it is all about the continued positive momentum as the main clay court season comes to a conclusion.

Peyton Stearns - 3.5 games v Eva Lys: The clay courts might not always be the favoured surface of those playing out of the United States, but Peyton Stearns has enjoyed a really good couple of months on the red dirt. Not only has she reached a career high World Ranking ahead of the French Open, but Stearns will enter the tournament as one of the top thirty-two Seeds and she could, or perhaps should, be targeting a result to match her Third Round run from last year.

The key is to make sure she is focused after piling up the wins in Madrid and Rome- Peyton Stearns reached the Fourth Round in the Spanish capital before surpassing all expectations to make it through to the Rome Semi Final.

Peyton Stearns has had to battle through some of the matches, but credit has to be given to the 23 year old for finding a way to put the wins together. Some may feel she has benefited from kind draws, but that has not been the case for Stearns who has wins over four players that were Ranked higher than herself and losses to Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini are hardly surprises.

The expectation is that Peyton Stearns can get off to a strong start in the French capital with a First Round match against Eva Lys, even if the latter is an experienced clay court player.

Much like Peyton Stearns, Eva Lys is playing at a career best World Ranking mark, but she is just inside the top 60 and has not had the same kind of consistent results as the American. While Eva Lys has a 6-5 record on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open, that becomes 1-4 when only considering matches against players Ranked higher than herself and a vulnerable serve has been exploited by the stronger players faced.

Some of the losses that have been handed to Eva Lys have been pretty one-sided and Peyton Stearns looks to be playing well enough to secure a relatively comfortable victory of her own.

As long as she gets enough first serves in play, Stearns should be able to have considerable success on the return and that should see her move through to the Second Round with two solid sets under the belt.

Diana Shnaider - 6.5 games v Anastasiia Sobolieva: There are some clear favourites who will be expecting to challenge for the second Grand Slam of the season, but someone like Diana Shnaider could prove to be a dangerous 'underdog'. The World Number 11 continues to improve as a player on the Tour and the young player looked to be in good form when reaching the Rome Quarter Final earlier this month.

She has reached the Third Round in three consecutive Grand Slam tournaments, but Diana Shnaider has yet to have the kind of impact at this level that her Ranking may suggest. However, she is getting closer having put together a run into the second week at the US Open last year and her all-around tennis ability means Diana Shnaider is a threat on all surfaces.

Over the last couple of seasons, Diana Shnaider has developed into a consistent player on the clay courts and it will feel like a real disappointment if she is not to reach the Third Round, at least, for the first time in Paris this week.

The serve has been effective and Diana Shnaider is a strong returner, which should give her the edge over a Qualifier in the First Round.

Both of these players are 21 years old, but Anastasiia Sobolieva is outside of the top 200 of the World Rankings, although set for a boost having won three Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw. She only dropped a single set in those Qualifying matches and that will give Sobolieva confidence, even if she will accept that this is a considerable step upwards compared to the usual level of opponent she will face.

The real test for Anastasiia Sobolieva is going to be trying to protect the second serve and too many looks at that shot should give one of the Seeds an opportunity to get on top of the rally from the outset.

Diana Shnaider will be aware of this opponent being in the same age bracket- their sole previous match was back in November 2021 on the clay courts and Shnaider was outside of the top 1000 and almost 500 Ranking places below Anastasiia Sobolieva.

However, that did not stop Shnaider winning 6-4, 6-1 and the World Number 11 has progressed and developed to a level where she should be a relatively comfortable winner again.

MY PICKS: Peyton Stearns - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Diana Shnaider - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 85-61, + 17.66 Units (184 Units Staked, + 9.60% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall II (Saturday 25th May)

It has been a long time coming... But it was absolutely worth the wait!

The feeling had been that it might not be the most entertaining Heavyweight clash, but there was no doubting the importance of a first Undisputed World Title fight for twenty five years.

However, all credit has to be given to both Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk who gave the fans a fight that will long be remembered.

Personally I thought Fury had been in very good form through the first six Rounds and looked to have hurt Usyk, but the Ukrainian has shown many times before that he can make the in-fight adjustments to turn things back in his favour. Once again he did that and the unbelievable Ninth Round will live long in the memory as we eventually had the right winner announced on the night and a genuine reason to have a rematch later in the year.

That would likely mean the IBF World Title is vacated and will be contested by Filip Hrgovic and Daniel Dubois in early June with the winner lined up to take on Anthony Joshua in Autumn.

The only positive is that after the rematch between Usyk-Fury, we should hopefully be in line for another Undisputed Heavyweight fight much sooner than the twenty-five year gap between the one last Saturday and the Lennox Lewis-Evander Holyfield one in 1999. If Tyson Fury was to earn revenge in the expected rematch in October, the trilogy could make most sense for both fighters before they potentially walk off into the sunset, but there are a host of contenders now lining up to try and take over where they can and the Heavyweight Division has certainly come alive over the last several months.

There were some solid undercard results- Jai Opetaia is once again a Cruiserweight World Champion, while Anthony Cacace earned a World Title of his own after upsetting Joe Cordina.

Eyes will have begun to have been turned to the Five vs Five taking place in Riyadh a week on Saturday, but there is a big night in the United Kingdom in between the two Saudi events.

Last weekend we also had two upsets over in the United States and the Lightweight and Welterweight Division will have been given a jolt by the results seen. Denys Berinchyk's win over Emanuel Navarrete will have opened up a number of doors when it comes to a potential Unification in the Lightweight Division, while Brian Norman Jr became the Interim WBO Welterweight World Champion, a position that will be upgraded on August 3rd when Terence Crawford moves up to win a World Title in the Light Middleweight Division.

Much like Berinchyk, Brian Norman Jr was quick to mention a couple of the other Interim World Champions in the Welterweight Division and the next generation after Crawford and Errol Spence Jr could give up some big nights over the next twelve to eighteen months.

Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall II

In February 2022, Josh Taylor was the Undisputed Light Welterweight Champion having collected all of the Belts and he was a pretty significant favourite to see off Jack Catterall and then potentially move up to Welterweight to challenge the likes of Terence Crawford or Errol Spence Jr.

After a strong career, things seemed to unravel on the night and I am not the only person out there who thought Catterall had done enough to upset The Tartan Tornado.

Boxing does what Boxing does at times and it was actually Taylor who had his hand raised at the end of Twelve Rounds, despite also being put on the floor by Jack Catterall. Both fighters had a point deducted in what was a messy bout, but it felt like the Challenger had done just enough and there has been a personal issue between them ever since.

Josh Taylor has been dealing with injuries that have postponed the rematch a number of times, and he then decided to face Teofimo Lopez in New York City instead. That meant defending the last of the four Belts he had collected, but Taylor was beaten pretty comfortably and there has to be a real question about how much he has left in the tank with the long layoffs between fights.

Jack Catterall has every right to be frustrated with the decision from the first fight, but it was a real disappointment to not see him capitalise on the situation. Having the World Titles would have made a difference, but Catterall has allowed his career to stagnate while waiting for this rematch and this is only the third fight since Taylor-Catterall 1.

Wins over Darragh Foley and Jorge Linares won't have had many clamouring to see Jack Catterall take on the World Champions, but he can reignite things by beating Josh Taylor. He remains decently Ranked by all four bodies and working with Matchroom should mean Jack Catterall will be in line for another World Title shot if he can exorcise this mental demon.

It is Jack Catterall who will be going into the main event as the favourite- there are certainly more questions about Josh Taylor and the inactivity, injury and how much more motivation he has left in the tank. All of the right things are being said, which is not a surprise, but you do have to wonder if Taylor really believes he can become a two weight World Champion having struggled to make Light Welterweight for some time, but still not moving up.

This makes me feel that Taylor doesn't have the same desires as he once did, especially as Welterweight is now filled with some tough, tough fighters, but perhaps not those that would have given him the same kind of financial reward as fighting Bud Crawford or Spence Jr would have done.

In saying all that, it is not easy to back Jack Catterall considering how relatively one-paced he has looked in his last couple of fights. He is not the most exciting fighter, which can put off fans as well as judges against an aggressive fighter like Josh Taylor, but this is a main event where you can sit back and toss a coin.

Last week Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury surprised us all with the kind of excitement produced, but we have seen Taylor-Catterall once before and something similar might be seen. Another close decision either way is likely, although my lean would be that a slightly more motivated Jack Catterall may come through and edge Josh Taylor towards retirement.

The best Josh Taylor beats the best Jack Catterall (and I've long been a huge fan of Taylor and what he has achieved), but we have simply not seen the best of Taylor for a long time and you have to question how much is left in the tank.

The main event will be making the headlines, but there is a decent enough undercard this weekend, in between the two big cards in Saudi Arabia.

While not going to be as deep as those cards, there are still some interesting contests here in Leeds.

Gary Cully is looking to show how much he has learned from his one defeat by taking on a veteran in Francesco Patera.

He has to be careful not to get overly carried away about becoming the first to Stop Patera, especially as Cully showed he can be baited into a defeat. He should be good enough to come through on the cards, but this is much closer than some have listed.

Another Irishman looking to showcase his talents on the undercard, Paddy Donovan, is fighting Lewis Ritson, who is well known to UK fight fans. The latter has not really reached the heights that were once tipped for him and he is heading up to Welterweight for this one having been Stopped in his last outing at Light Welterweight by Ohara Davies.

A fourteen month layoff is not ideal and Paddy Donovan is certainly someone who hits very big and could be ready to make a statement and try and steal the show.

The Five vs Five Queensberry vs Matchroom card is taking place in Riyadh next week, but the two rival promoters are working together more than ever.

Last week it was Queensberry who earned bragging rights when Anthony Cacace beat Joe Cordina, but Eddie Hearn is confident in Cheavon Clarke, an unbeaten Cruiserweight contender who is hoping to put the British Title around his waist before moving up the World Rankings.

There are some talented fighters in this Division, domestically and on the World stage, and this is an opportunity for Clarke.

He is facing Ellis Zorro who was last seen being wiped out in a single Round by Jai Opetaia in December, but who did pick up a European Title prior to that.

Ellis Zorro has had some solid wins as he has gotten the most out of his career, but you do have to wonder how he has recovered from what was a devastating Knock Out defeat.

You do have to point out that defeat was against a genuinely World level fighter and arguably the man to beat at Cruiserweight, but it will have really dented the confidence and someone like Cheavon Clarke will test the Ellis Zorro resolve.

The unbeaten Cruiserweight has shown considerable punching power in his early professional career and the feeling is that Clarke will showcase more of that in this one. Ellis Zorro will come to fight, which should help Cheavon Clarke, and the latter might be able to put a statement win on the board before chasing some of the bigger names in the Division.

At one point he would have been headlining big cards on Saturday evening in the United Kingdom and Lawrence Okolie had signed with Boxxer hoping to Unify the Cruiserweight Division before moving up to Heavyweight.

The plan to hit the marquee Division has not changed, but Okolie would not have anticipated losing to former stablemate Chris Billam-Smith.

It was a really poor performance and almost exactly one year has passed.

The Sauce returns on Friday night and has to travel to Poland where he is taking on Lukasz Rozanski, who has surprisingly been out of the ring even longer than his opponent. The last time we saw the Pole, he was crushing Alen Babic in a single Round for the Bridgerweight World Title and this might be a sign that Lawrence Okolie is now bulking his way up towards the Heavyweight Division.

He will have to be careful.

This might not be a fighter of real note, but Lukasz Rozanski has already displayed he carries plenty of power and he will likely come right out of the traps looking for Lawrence Okolie.

However, that might be music to the ears of Okolie as long as he is ready to let his hands go, a criticism he faced in the losing effort to Billam-Smith. The former Cruiserweight World Champion has admitted that he has worked on this and Joe Gallagher is the latest trainer trying to help Okolie maximise his potential.

This could develop into a firefight as long as Lawrence Okolie is willing to trade with his opponent, one who will come forward, but who should be predictable and one paced.

With his big levers, Lawrence Okolie could really find a home for his right hand and counter Rozanski onto something big and he might just announce his return with some style.

The final fight making some headlines this week involves the return of Christian Mbilli who continues to make his name in Canada.

We last saw him winning in January and Mbilli is expected to take a big step up later in the year, as long as he can get through this one.

Mark Heffron is well known to UK Boxing fans, and this is an unexpected opportunity for him- the Third Round loss to Jack Cullen looked to be a career ender for the thirty-two year old, but Heffron still feels there is something left in the tank.

One victory over a journeyman has been parlayed into this big fight in Canada and Mark Heffron feels he has nothing to lose.

However, the punch resistance was concerning against Cullen, who is not exactly in wonderful winning form either side of that fight, and Christian Mbilli might be able to find the big shots early enough to force a Stoppage before announcing a big fight for the summer.

MY PICKS: Paddy Donovan to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cheavon Clarke to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.00 William Hill (2 Units) 

Boxing 2024: 21-33, + 15.17 Units (74 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2019 (May 23-27)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- Conference Finals Picks Game 5-7 (May 23-27)

The Western Conference Finals saw the Golden State Warriors recover from huge deficits on three straight occasions to sweep the Portland Trail Blazers out of the post-season. That has given them plenty of time to rest while the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are forced to play at least two more games before the NBA Finals begin at the end of the month.

It is an important time for the Warriors as they hope that time will allow Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins to both return to the rotation having missed the last six games for the team. They haven't been missed as much as you might have expected considering the Warriors have won all of those games, although I would expect the NBA Finals to be a much tougher proposition than what the Trail Blazers were able to produce against Golden State.

Even the Warriors have admitted they are going to need at least Durant and maybe even Cousins if they are going to win the NBA Championship for a third year in a row and for the fourth time in five seasons. It will take a brave person to bet against them doing that, although my feeling is that the Milwaukee Bucks will pose a lot more questions than the Toronto Raptors.

However right now the Eastern Conference Finals are finely balance at 2-2 with both teams having won a dominant game and perhaps a shaky one at home to hold serve. A best of three should favour the Bucks who host two of those games, but the Raptors have momentum and Game 5 is going to be huge.

Thursday 23rd May

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: Throughout this season the Milwaukee Bucks have responded to setbacks by bouncing back and setting the record straight in their next game. It was a big reason they went into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals as the favourite having dropped Game 3 to the Toronto Raptors as the underdog, but it was Toronto who came out on top to level the Series at 2-2.

Game 5 moves back to Milwaukee and there is no doubting the importance of this one in what has become a best of three game Series. The Bucks need to stem the momentum the Raptors have been able to build up after winning Game 3 in Double Overtime and then crushing Milwaukee in Game 4 which was never really competitive.

It is now up to the Bucks to make the adjustments they need as they have not really been able to show off the depth that many thought gave them an edge in this match up with Toronto. While the Raptors might not have the same amounts of rotations to keep key players on decent minutes, their role players have stepped up massively in the last couple of games and it is their performances which have led to a tied Series.

Kawhi Leonard may be one of the best players in the NBA, but he was held to 19 points in Game 4 and yet the Raptors were still able to dominate throughout. Leonard is still looking a little gimpy having suffered an injury in Game 3, while Kyle Lowry is also dealing with an undisclosed issue but both are going to suit up and give all they can to help the Raptors reach a first ever NBA Finals.

While Leonard and Lowry have done enough to open things up for the rest of the team, Pascal Siakam continues to have his own struggles. Fortunately others have been in fine form and now it is up to the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo to return to the kind of level that makes him a leading contender for regular season MVP.

Antetokounmpo will not be heckled by Canadian idiot, I mean rapper, Drake in Game 5, but he can't use that as an excuse for two average performances in Toronto. He will need Khris Middleton to step up with him, while Eric Bledsoe's post-season struggles have stretched on and his lack of Offensive productivity is hurting the strong Defensive effort he is trying to produce for the team.

Milwaukee should be much more comfortable in home surroundings having covered in their last four here. They are also 6-0 against the spread when playing off a double digit defeat and the Bucks are 21-5 against the spread when playing off a loss.

They have only once lost back to back games in the 2018/19 season and they crushed the Indiana Pacers by 19 points as a double digit favourite at home after those consecutive losses. The home team has covered in all four Eastern Conference Finals Games and Toronto are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road PlayOff Games.

I have yet to really lose faith in Milwaukee as they could have easily won Game 3. The Game 4 performance was perhaps the worst they have produced in the post-season, but Milwaukee have shown they can bounce back from defeats and this team will be much better being back at home.

The public money looks to be going down on the Raptors, but Milwaukee will be looking to improve a recent trend that has developed in the NBA PlayOffs. Home teams at 2-2 have improved to 6-2 against the spread in Game 5 of the PlayOffs since the beginning of the 2018 NBA PlayOffs and I think the Bucks are a team who can rally from their losses and show the NBA they are still the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.


Saturday 25th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 6 Pick: The Golden State Warriors have already been enjoying a few days off to recover from their post-season exploits to reach the NBA Finals, but they could learn their opponent for the Championship as soon as Saturday night. The Toronto Raptors have overcome some big odds to beat the Milwaukee Bucks for a third time in a row to take a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals and one more win in front of their own fans will see them through to a first ever NBA Finals appearance.

It is a stunning turnaround in this Series after the Bucks won the first two games. They had only suffered back to back defeats once in the regular season and this is the first time Milwaukee have lost three in a row all year which makes the Toronto recovery all the more remarkable.

In Game 5 the Raptors rallied from big deficits on a couple of occasions to weather the Milwaukee storm and take a lead in the Series. It is making the Game 3 win in Double Overtime looking all the more key for Toronto who have earned some momentum from the manner of their win and continue to roll with it.

Milwaukee have not lost faith in their own ability, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is struggling at the Free Throw line at the wrong time as his team-mates have not stepped up to the plate. One of the big factors in the last three games is the deteriorating number of three point shots being taken by the Bucks as Milwaukee have continued to struggle to shoot the ball from downtown while their overall success from the field has been well down on their season numbers.

Energy on the Defensive side of the court has bled into the Toronto Offense too as Kawhi Leonard continues to dominate the Series. He bounced back from a tough Game 4 to score 35 points in Game 5 to lead the Raptors, but it has been the contribution of the role players that has really caught the eye and put Toronto in a position to finish the Finals.

I would be stunned if Milwaukee were to lose for a fourth game in a row, but they are not really a team I can back with any confidence after the way the last three games have gone. If they were to win Game 6 I would make the Bucks strong favourites to win the Series, but there is a lot of pressure on them and the layers have placed a spread that is impossible for me to judge.

If Milwaukee are going to win here, they need to do better from the field whether that is attacking the paint and getting to the Free Throw line or someone stepping up and getting hot from the three point line. The Raptors have shown they have players who can put the three ball together and they have scored plenty of points in this Series, but I do think Milwaukee are going to respond before it is too late.

After a lower than expected scoring Game 5 I am not surprised that so many have been quick to back the 'under' in this one. However the last eight between Toronto and Milwaukee in Canada have seen six of them finish with an 'over' and I think the Bucks are better than they have shown Offensively to think they can contribute to a high-scoring Game 6.

The 'over' is also 8-1 in the Milwaukee's last nine road games, while it is 14-3 when the Bucks are playing a team with a winning record at home. The 'over' has also been the play in Toronto games when facing a team with a winning record of at least 60% as that side of the market has improved to 4-1 in their last five at home.

The emotion is going to be high in this building on Saturday night, but I can see both teams looking to provide a heavy dose of three point shooting which can lead to Game 6 surpassing the number set.

MY PICKS: 23/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
25/05 Toronto Raptors-Milwaukee Bucks Over 212 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA Conference Finals: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Second Round: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

First Round: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (May 25th)

The final week before a Grand Slam begins is a tough time to be making daily picks from the Tennis Tour and it is no surprise I have only had three picks all week despite four tournaments being played.

The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.

Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.

Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.

The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.

Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.

It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.

Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.

On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.

It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.

Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.

His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.

A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.


Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.

The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.

It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.

Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.

Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.


Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.

Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.

The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.

Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.

There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2018- Jamie McDonnell vs Naoya Inoue (May 25th-May 26th)

There have been some memorable fights already in 2018 and last weekend provided another when Adonis Stevenson and Badou Jack fought out to a draw.

It wasn't a fight I scored live myself, but it felt like a very close one and the draw was not a massive surprise. In the bout both Stevenson and Jack had been hurt at times although I do have to say it felt Jack won the clearer Rounds and so you could understand his frustration that he has ended up with another draw in a fight where he perhaps felt he had done enough to win.

An old school 15 Rounder would have likely given Jack the time to stop Stevenson and it was only a huge body shot in the Tenth Round which stopped the US based Swede in his tracks when he looked to be peaking in strength in the fight.

Most have called for a rematch but it looks like Stevenson will be going in another direction with the mandatory challenger for his WBC World Title unlikely to step aside.

Either way Stevenson looked a vulnerable Champion on Saturday night and is only going to lose a little more with his best years wasted with inactivity.

Stevenson has said he wants to be more active going forward, but I think his grip on the WBC Title is slipping all the time and a number of challengers will be looking to relieve him of his strap in the months ahead.


I can't move on without praising Josh Warrington and Gary Russell who both had big wins last weekend. Warrington has set himself up for some big domestic fights with the likelihood he shares a ring with Carl Frampton perhaps by the end of the year, while I just hope to see Russell fighting more than once a year.

Lee Selby will move on from the Warrington loss by moving up in weight which was long rumoured for him. The chance to become a two weight World Champion will offer plenty of motivation and I think Selby comes again even against some of the tough challenges that await in the Super Featherweight Division.

Jamie McDonnell vs Naoya Inoue

It is Friday afternoon Boxing for fans in the United Kingdom as Jamie McDonnell travels to Tokyo to take on 'Monster' Naoya Inoue with his WBA Bantamweight World Title on the line. There is plenty on the line for both fighters with the winner likely to be invited into the World Boxing Super Series tournament being set up which already involves three other World Champions.

All of the focus from the fans and the organisers will be on Naoya Inoue who is moving up in weight to become a World Champion in a third Division in just his sixteenth fight. Highlight reel stoppages have increased his exposure and Inoue has already fought in the United States, but he returns home having gotten the chance to bring Jamie McDonnell over.

McDonnell is perhaps fortunate to still hold the World Title having looked like he had lost the fight with Liborio Solis but he has the height and reach advantages against a fighter coming up in weight.

Back to back wins over previously unbeaten Tomoki Kameda will mean the Japanese audience are familiar with McDonnell but this is a much different test for the British fighter. He may proclaim to being the best Bantamweight in the world, but he won't have felt the power Inoue should carry up to this Division and I think McDonnell is going to do very well to see the final bell.

At first I expect McDonnell will try and frustrate Inoue by keeping out of range and boxing the shorter man, but Solis was able to close the gap and unload some big shots and I expect the Japanese superstar to be able to do the same. I can see Inoue breaking down McDonnell round by round and his power wearing down a fighter who could come again if he is not absorbing too much of a beating.

Solis should have beaten McDonnell and he is shorter than Inoue who still has some skills to learn which poses a question for me. He will need to find a way to close the ring off to McDonnell and I think that comes later in the fight as the body shots begin to take a toll and so any stoppage will come in the second half of the fight as far as I am concerned.

McDonnell has never been stopped, but Kameda put him down in their first fight and Inoue is the hardest puncher he would have faced. Not many have gone into the second half of the fight with Inoue, but I think McDonnell may get there before the power of his opponent breaks him down for a stoppage.

Khalid Yafai vs David Carmona

This is the US debut for Khalid Yafai and I think the British fighter can defend his WBA World Title and then put himself in line for some big fights in the Super Flyweight Division.

Some of those names have been thrown around for the future for Yafai, but the fighter himself knows the importance of looking good to make sure his name is truly placed alongside the best in the Division.

Yafai has a chance to look good against David Carmona who will come to fight, but the British fighter has to be careful against an opponent who will feel this is his last chance to become a World Champion.

He may get another shot down the line, but Carmona has found himself unable to beat the elite although he is a tough character that won't go down easily.

I expect the better boxing will come from Yafai and he will want to make a statement by stopping Carmona. However the last three wins have all come by Unanimous Decision and I think Yafai will end up putting another comfortable win in the books to keep himself in line for Unified Championship bouts going forward.

The layers expect the stoppage to come, but I will back Yafai to win on points.

MY PICKS: Naoua Inoue to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Khalid Yafai to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

NBA Play Off Picks 2018- Conference Finals (May 13-22)

The NBA Conference Finals have rolled around after an underwhelming Semi Final Round which saw the four teams progress without losing more than one game in any of those Series.

We are down to the four teams that most would have picked back in October as the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers have come through some difficult Play Off moments to take their place in the Conference Finals.

Of course it hasn't been plain sailing for any of these teams during a long season either but it looks very much like we are going to see another Golden State-Cleveland NBA Finals which would make it the fourth time in a row those teams have met in June.


My NBA Picks in the Play Offs have been downright disgusting and I will make no excuse for that. Some bad picks have been mixed in with some poor luck and that has led to a really poor last month.

Hopefully I can at least end this season with some positives by producing a strong Conference Finals and NBA Finals record, but it has been tough road.


Sunday 13th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Eastern Conference Finals begin on Sunday and it would have been the two teams that most would have picked back in October as the most likely to be competing for a spot in the NBA Finals. A long season has seen the expectations remain set, but the belief in the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers has been fluctuating to the say the least.

The Celtics have been hit by the injury bug which has kept Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving out for extended time, but a young roster has rallied together to become greater than the sum of their parts. They have overcome the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers in the first two Rounds of the Play Offs despite being an underdog both times and the Boston Celtics are very comfortable coming into the Eastern Conference Finals with people believing they are the dogs again.

For the Cleveland Cavaliers it has been an up and down season which saw them blow up their roster ahead of the trade deadline as the early chemistry was not coming together as they liked. After a tough Series with the Indiana Pacers in the First Round, the Cleveland Cavaliers look to be peaking at the right time following a sweep of the Number 1 Seeded Toronto Raptors.

LeBron James is the best player on the court by some distance, but the Celtics feel they have the players who can come together and at least slow the progress made by The King. James has been almost impossible to stop so far, but it was the support given to him by the likes of Kevin Love that helped Cleveland dominate the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series in the manner they did.

Those support players are going to be key again as Cleveland try and break down the tough Defensive schemes the Boston Celtics can put together. It is clear Brad Stevens is a top Head Coach and he will have the game plan to try and shut down the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the talent is with the lower Seed and if Cleveland get going the way they did in the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series then they will be very difficult to beat.

The Boston Celtics have shown they are very strong at home as they remain unbeaten here with seven wins in the Play Offs. That has to be respected and the layers are also respecting that with the small spread offered on this game which is very difficult to read.

I can't really decide whether I like the Celtics or the Cavaliers in Game 1 and I can make a case for both.

The better angle may be picking the teams to combine for more than the total points being offered in this one. The Cavaliers have shown strength Offensively with more support coming from the role players and the bench, but the Boston Celtics are a team who can create fast breaks and their young players have been growing game by game.

The total points is almost 10 points shorter than their regular season meetings because of the injuries to the Boston Celtics roster, but they have shown they can perform under this pressure. They are a dangerous team in transition and hit plenty of three pointers themselves and backing the total points line to be surpassed in the opening play.


Monday 14th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: There will be plenty of people out there who will feel the 'real' NBA Finals is going to be played in the Western Conference Finals with the top two teams out West meeting one another. The defending Champions Golden State Warriors have set the standards for the NBA over the last three seasons and they are almost at dynasty level of success and will reach that mark by winning their third NBA Championship in four years.

Setting the standards means teams strive to put together the roster that will give them confidence of beating the Warriors in a best of seven series. The team that have looked to have done that the best in the 2017/18 season is the Houston Rockets who finished with the best record in the NBA after putting Chris Paul alongside James Harden in the back court.

Paul has been a huge success for the Rockets in the Play Offs as he is making his first appearance in a Conference Finals in his career. It was Paul who was making the big plays as Houston saw off the Utah Jazz in five games in the Conference Semi Final Series, but Harden is never far away from taking over a game himself.

Still, it is a big challenge in front of these two stars as they go up against a Golden State Warriors team who have dominated the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans on their way to a fourth consecutive Western Conference Finals.

Golden State have some of the most talented players in the NBA and they are as healthy as they have been at any time this season as they have looked to have peaked at the right time. It looks like the Warriors have done that and they are starting their top five players which has helped them make strong starts while also picking up their performances on the Defensive side of the court.

Much of the success in this Series is going to come down to which of these teams is most effective from the three point range. That is a key shot for both the Warriors and the Rockets but it does feel like Golden State are trending positively while Houston have gone cold a little too often even during their solid Play Off run.

Going cold against the Jazz and the Timberwolves isn't a big issue, but going cold against the Golden State Warriors can see teams find themselves quickly being blown out in what was otherwise a close game.

That is my fear for the Rockets and I do think Golden State are going to win this Series perhaps easier than most people would expect. The first two games in Houston are huge for the Rockets who have to find a way to try and get into a 2-0 lead before heading to the Oracle Arena later this week.

Ultimately I think the Golden State Warriors are playing the better basketball at the moment and I would not be surprised in the slightest if they are able to win both games on the road. With Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry all looking like they are getting into their best basketball I think the Warriors can be backed as the underdog to win Game 1 in Houston.

Of course you have to respect Houston who can get very comfortable from the three point range when they begin to feel their best basketball. However their numbers are down across the Play Offs from that arc and I think the Warriors will take advantage in Game 1 to steal away home court advantage immediately.


Tuesday 15th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was dominated by the Boston Celtics who maintained their unbeaten run at home in the Play Offs after leading the Cleveland Cavaliers from wire to wire. The young players who have grown up in the post-season continue to share the ball around and all make a significant impact on the game and Boston are going to feel good about their chances of making it 2-0 against the Cavaliers before heading to Cleveland for two games later this week.

Defensively Boston were very strong as they made sure LeBron James was not able to take over as he has done so often in the Play Offs this season and throughout his career. It was a sub-par effort from James, who would admit that himself, but there is no panic from a player who has been a regular in the NBA Finals for the last decade.

As James himself stated after Game 1 this is not 'March Madness' and the Cavaliers have the chance to make the adjustments they need to level up this Series.

The Celtics know they have to expect a big reaction from James and the Cavaliers and Brad Stevens is going to try and make the adjustments to counter what Cleveland bring to the table. Boston can't expect the Cavaliers to be as poor from the three point range as they were in Game 1 especially when you consider some of the really open looks that were failed to be knocked down.

It was the role players who really struggled for Cleveland in Game 1 and they recognise they need to step up their play if they are going to win a tough Series against the short-handed Boston Celtics. Tristan Thompson may be restored to the starting line up to try and give Al Horford a bigger challenge and the layers are finding it tough to separate these teams with Boston the narrow favourites in Game 2 having been a small underdog in Game 1.

I do like the chances of Cleveland bouncing back in Game 2 as that is something they have done throughout LeBron James' time in the Play Offs off a defeat. You have to think they are going to be better shooting the ball in Game 2 now they are playing with a little more rhythm having had a few days to rest ahead of Game 1 and James is likely to go back to all out attack mode which is difficult for any opponent to slow down.

The underdog might be worth a play, but I also think the market in Game 1 that I backed has to be worth looking at again. The Boston Celtics continue to play well Offensively at home and I expect Cleveland to be a lot better than 36% from the field if they get anything like the open shots they missed in Game 1.

The total points line has come down slightly from Game 1, but it did have a shot to surpass that line if Cleveland had not made such a poor start to the Fourth Quarter. As I am anticipating a much better performance from the road team and expecting Boston to maintain their scoring power at home, this maybe yet another home Play Off game the Celtics play which goes 'over' the total.


Wednesday 16th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Golden State Warriors may not be the higher Seed in this Western Conference Finals, but their performance in Game 1 will have underlined to the Houston Rockets that they remain the team to beat in the NBA. A dominant second half allowed the Warriors to pull away for a comfortable win and steal away home court with the return to California coming after Game 2.

That doesn't mean the Warriors are satisfied with what they have done in Game 1 and they will very much be looking for another win on the road to move into a dominant position in the Series. Steve Kerr will be expecting the Houston Rockets to make the adjustments to try and level the Series and he is going to be looking to put his players in a position where they can secure a 2-0 lead and perhaps look for a big time sweep later in the week.

Golden State have the talent to do that and the Rockets know they have to find a way to get their shooters in a better position to have an impact in Game 2. James Harden got his bucketload of points as usual, but it was clear the Warriors were settling for that and making sure the the three point shot was not a major factor outside of the superstar.

You could see the attitude clearly with the lack of assists Harden got to the outside shooters, while Chris Paul was also limited. Expect the Houston Rockets to try and get Stephen Curry into more one on one Defensive plays which is an area they excelled at in Game 1, but both Harden and Paul know they need one or two more players to step up to the plate if they are going to win this one.

It looks a long shot and I said before Game 1 and even before this Series began that I thought Golden State were going to be far too good for the Rockets. Nothing has really changed my mind and even the expected adjustments made by the home team may not be enough to get out of this Series with more than a single win.

I just can't have the Golden State Warriors as the underdog for a second game in a row especially when you consider they know there is still room for improvement. Of course the Houston Rockets could see their role players find their feet and hit a huge number of three pointers which could change this game, but Golden State look the more effective Offensively and they look the superior team Defensively while the experience of having won rings cannot be downplayed in any way.

The teams barely finished 'under' the total points line in Game 1 and I think they may get a few more points on the board with Houston expected to play with a little more speed, but ultimately I am looking for the underdog to bite again and move the Warriors into a commanding position in the Series.


Saturday 19th May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: LeBron James is simply not used to being in a position like this one as his Cleveland Cavaliers return to their home Arena 0-2 down in the Eastern Conference Finals. NBA teams who fall to 0-3 in the Play Offs do not win Series so there is a lot of pressure on the Cleveland Cavaliers to find the right formula to take down the Boston Celtics.

A poor second half Offensively cost the Cleveland Cavaliers a chance to steal away home court in Game 2 and ultimately they have fallen to another double digit loss. While the Cavaliers have felt the more up and down team, Boston have continued playing their steady basketball and their strong Defensive schemes have helped them get back into games.

The Celtics have won the first two games in different ways with the first coming wire to wire and the second seeing them come from behind to wear down the Cavaliers. That is going to give this young team a lot of confidence, but it is hard to ignore the difference between their home form and road form in the Play Offs.

While the Celtics have won all nine home Play Off games so far, Boston are also 1-4 on the road and that is an issue for them. It may not be a crucial factor in this Series if the Celtics keep playing as well as they are at home, but the NBA Final is going to be on the road and the young roster are going to try and prove they are capable by winning at least one of the road games here in Cleveland.

Boston still believe there is better to come from them but much is going to depend on how much consistency they can get from the three point shot. They also have to keep the Cleveland role players quiet having frustrated JR Smith to the point of Smith committing some obvious flagrant fouls in Game 2 which almost sparked a brawl.

That is also what Cleveland have to be focusing on- they know they are going to get a big game from LeBron James, but they won't win this game unless they are getting more from other sources.

You have to expect Cleveland are going to come out hot as they did in Game 2 and I think they can be backed on the first half spread which continues to provide a positive return for those teams down 0-2 in the Play Offs. Those teams are 4-2 against the spread in the six times that situation has been seen in this year's Play Offs and it has a very strong record over the last couple of years.

With a hot home crowd behind them, I think the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out with focus to take the game to a Boston Celtics team who have not been as strong on the road. The Celtics might be the better overall team in this Series, but Cleveland should not go down without a fight and I will back them to be leading and covering the number at the end of the first half.


Monday 21st May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: All three games in this Eastern Conference Finals have been uncompetitive and the blow out win for the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 has halved the deficit in the Series. They will be looking to get back to 2-2 before the Eastern Conference Finals moves back to Boston later this week and Cleveland will be hoping they can pick up from where they left off in Game 3.

LeBron James is always going to the key player for the Cavaliers, but he was given the kind of support he has been looking for throughout this Series. This time the role players managed to have a big impact in the game with the likes of George Hill and JR Smith scoring the points and using their aggressiveness to help break down the Boston Defensive shapes which had been so important in helping them get to a 2-0 position in the Series.

The Celtics will be looking to make adjustments to slow down the Cavaliers who got back on track Offensively. It is a big test for Boston considering how poorly they have played in the 2018 Play Offs on the road as they dropped a fifth game in six road games in the post-season.

Offensively they have not been the same team on the road as they have been at home and Brad Stevens has to find a way to give his players the belief out of their comfort zone at the TD Garden. The younger players are building an experience that will serve them well in future seasons, but they have just found it tough to produce their best basketball in tougher road environments.

I have to expect Boston are going to be more competitive than they were in Game 3 and the spread looks much harder to call in Game 4. The total continues to be a happy hunting ground for 'under' backers but they have been fortunate in each of the last two games and I think this may be the time for the 'over' to finally come in.

It has taken the teams to go cold in the final two minutes of each of the last two games to prevent the 'over' coming in, but a more competitive finish should mean there are at least some fouls down the stretch. With Cleveland likely to continue to play aggressively and Boston unlikely to only hit six three pointers like they did in Game 3 I think the over is going to be a winner in this one.


Tuesday 22nd May
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A 41 point blow out in Game 3 has put the Golden State Warriors 2-1 ahead in the Western Conference Finals against the Houston Rockets and they will be looking to back that up with another in Game 4. The Series is finely balanced with the Warriors looking to cement home advantage by holding serve in Game 4, but the Houston Rockets have shown some heart by bouncing back from their previous losses in the Play Offs.

A win for the Rockets will mean they have made the Western Conference Finals a best of three situation with two of those games to be played at home. However a loss for the Rockets will raise a lot of questions as they would be on the brink of elimination in a season where they finished with the most wins in the NBA.

That puts some pressure on Houston going into Game 4, even if Mike D'Antoni is doing his best to shift that away from his players by suggesting this game is more important to Golden State. D'Antoni will be looking for a reaction from his team who have won the game after their previous three losses in the Play Offs by an average of over 20 points per game.

Winning on the road against the Golden State Warriors who have won sixteen home Play Off games in a row is a huge challenge though and much bigger than when Houston won Game 2 at home after dropping Game 1 in this Series. The 41 point blow out highlighted the difference between the teams when the Rockets even come slightly off the boil and I do think the Warriors are the better team.

Seeing Stephen Curry get back on track would be a huge boost for Golden State who have some of the best shooters in the NBA which makes them incredibly tough to defend when they are playing like they did last time out. That Offensive fire has fed into the Defensive performances and once again the Warriors shut down the role players Houston need to make this a competitive Series.

They will be looking to do the same again on Tuesday although the potential absence of Andre Iguodala is a blow for the home team. That is countered by Houston with Chris Paul struggling for full health and it just feels like it could be another long evening for Houston if their players like Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker are not finding their mark from the three point range.

Golden State have always looked the more steady team to me and they know either Curry, Klay Thompson or Kevin Durant are never too far away from getting hot from the field. The home performances in the Play Offs make the Warriors clear favourites to win it all from here and I think they can win by another double digit margin against the Rockets.

I have not doubt this game will be closer than Game 3, but ultimately I like the Warriors to get it going and eventually be able to pull away from the Number 1 Seed. The Rockets will make it easy for Golden State if they struggle from the field as they did last time out, but even a more competitive overall performance may not be enough to change the actual outcome of this game.


Wednesday 23rd May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Both of the Conference Finals are heating up with both Series at 2-2 which means a best of three game situation to determine which teams will be playing in the NBA Finals that begin later this month. The Eastern Conference Finals has seen both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers holding serve at home but the momentum is with the latter who have come from 0-2 down back to 2-2.

That won't be a massive concern for Boston who had the same situation in the First Round of the Play Offs when facing the Milwaukee Bucks. In that Series Boston managed to win all four home games to take the Series in seven games and they have maintained their perfect home record in the Play Offs by winning all nine games played in the TD Garden.

It will give Boston plenty of confidence to take into Game 5 especially when you think of the points they left on the court in Game 4. I have never seen a team miss as many layups and dunks as the Boston Celtics did in Game 4 and those led to transition baskets for the Cavaliers and proved to be a big difference in a close game.

Boston remain confident they can get back on track on their return home and much of that is down to the good looks they got in Game 4. The team as a whole have been much better at home than on the road and adding in that factor means they will be a little disrespected as being set as a narrow underdog in Game 5.

The teams have both continued to break down the Defensive schemes set by the other and I think it is reasonable to back the over in another game. Once again it was a quiet end to Game 4 which almost saw these teams slip under the total again, but I think both are playing well enough Offensively to earn another surpassing of the total points line.

Cleveland have not played as well in Boston as they did in the last two games at home, but they have some momentum now. Kevin Love has been struggling for consistency, but JR Smith and Kyle Korver have stepped up their impact from the three point line and Cleveland will be looking for those two players to bring that onto the road.

LeBron James will continue playing his big game, but I expect Boston to respond to the punches they have taken in Game 3 and Game 4 and I think this is going to be a fun Game 5.


Thursday 24th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: A terrible Fourth Quarter in Game 4 cost the Golden State Warriors a chance to win and move into a 3-1 position in the Western Conference Finals. The 12 points scored in the final Quarter means the Warriors have also given up home court advantage as the Series moves into a best of three with the Houston Rockets feeling they have the momentum behind them.

The Rockets will be looking to become the first team in the Series to win back to back games when they return home on Thursday. This is also a time when fatigue begins to show on teams and they are looking to produce the same kind of Defensive effort which helped them drag the Warriors back who had a double digit lead going into the Fourth Quarter before falling away.

Much of the success for the Houston Rockets depends on getting someone other than James Harden going. In Game 4 it was Chris Paul who produced his best game of the Western Conference Finals as he continues to battle through a foot issue as he tries to reach his first NBA Finals.

Houston will be looking to keep the momentum going from the final Quarter on Tuesday, but they have to expect better from the Warriors who felt they fatigued a little bit. Losing Andre Iguodala, who is questionable for Game 5, means the rotation is a little less deep while Steve Kerr admitted he was trying to get some rest into his players.

There isn't a big concern that this fatigue has settled in, but the lead may have been a factor in Game 4 and Kerr expects his team to respond in the right way. Even the players are speaking with the confidence that comes from having won two of three visits to Houston this season and knowing it was as much to do with themselves as any Rockets improvement that they are not 3-1 ahead in the Series.

Nothing has really happened in this Series for me to change my opinion that the Warriors are the superior team and I think they bounce back from the last loss. Both teams have shown character to come back from defeats which has to be respected and I have been more impressed with the Rockets than I thought I would be.

However I think the Golden State Warriors should have won Game 4 and they look like a group who still very much believe they can turn the screw on the Rockets when they need to. This is one of those situations and I will back the Warriors as the underdog to come through with a win.


Friday 25th May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Boston Celtics have continued their home dominance in the NBA Play Offs and they have moved to the brink of making the NBA Finals against all the odds. Nothing is confirmed for the Celtics despite moving into a 3-2 lead as they have struggled in their two road games in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are going to be a desperate team looking to save their season.

LeBron James is potentially playing his last ever home game for the Cleveland Cavaliers and there is every chance this could be his last game for his home team period. While he has been a strong presence throughout the NBA Play Offs, there were definite signs of fatigue in Game 5 which has to be a big worry for the Cavaliers.

There is too much inconsistency from the role players to expect Cleveland to win this Eastern Conference Finals without James at the very top of his game, but I would anticipate a response from The King. His streak of seven straight NBA Finals is on the line here and James has routinely saved his very best for these situations which is going to be on the minds of the Celtics players as they travel to Cleveland for Game 6.

It also has to be noted that Boston have overachieved, but their talented young group have not been as good on the road as they have at home. A single road win this deep into the Play Offs highlights that, while the points per game differential between home and road games is also clear for anyone to see.

Slow starts have been their downfall in both games in Cleveland whereas the Celtics have rode the energy of the crowd in all three home games to make much more positive beginnings. This is a key factor at play, but Boston look fresher than the Cavaliers at this point and they must feel their time has come to record a huge statement road win.

Backing against LeBron in desperation mode is not easy, but the Boston Defensive unit are all over James and that has contributed to the fatigue he is feeling. Barring Kevin Love, George Hill and JR Smith combining for a huge game or someone coming off the bench and making a deep impact this looks a big test for the Cavaliers and one they may just have to dig deep to pass.

Digging deep means I am anticipating a close game in a Series which has not really produced one yet. All five games have been won in strong style by the home team, but I think this is the time for the Celtics to punch Cleveland in the mouth early and have every chance to win this Series on Friday.

Taking the points with the road team looks the way to go and I am hoping they don't make the poor start which has cost them in Game 3 and Game 4 here.

MY PICKS: 13/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
14/05 Golden State Warriors @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 203.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
16/05 Golden State Warriors @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/05 Houston Rockets-Golden State Warriors Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points First Half Spread @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/05 Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics Over 205.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/05 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
24/05 Golden State Warriors @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
25/05 Boston Celtic + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.32 Units (12 Unit Staked, - 19.33% Yield)