French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2022 (May 24th)

It was expected to be the wettest day of the first week of the French Open and there were a couple of delays and the ending of play slightly earlier than hoped.

Some of the First Round matches that had been scheduled for Monday have to be completed on Tuesday and that means there is a busy day of action to get through.

We have already seen a number of upsets through the first two days of the tournament, but those have largely been in the Women's tournament, although Iga Swiatek continues to play at a level that looks impossible for anyone to match.

Both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic followed Carlos Alcaraz as big First Round winners, but more of the top players will get their French Open tournaments under way.

Casper Ruud - 8.5 games v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga: An impressive career is going to come to an end at some point during the French Open, but Jo-Wilfred Tsonga will be hoping to turn back the clock one more time. He is unsurprisingly a massive underdog in this First Round match as he takes on a top ten player in his home Grand Slam, but Jo-Wilfred Tsonga will have the fans firmly behind him and he still has aspects of his big game that could be potentially dangerous for Casper Ruud.

Injuries have forced Jo-Wilfred Tsonga into the decision to call time on his career, but you can never doubt the heart of the Frenchman. He has made the absolute most out of his talent even when the early part of his career was hit by injury and Tsonga is a former Grand Slam Finalist, and reached a career best World Number 5 back in February 2012.

All respect has to be given to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who was a personal favourite to watch, and I do hope he has an enjoyable life post-tennis.

Unfortunately I do think the home favourite is going to have a tough time staying with Casper Ruud, one of the better clay courters out there. The Norwegian won the title in Geneva in the lead up to the French Open, but Casper Ruud may be slightly disappointed with his overall performance on the red dirt this season with the numbers dipping back from the high of 2021 to hit 2020 levels.

Those are still decent numbers with Casper Ruud being particularly strong behind serve and I do think that will help him ease into this match. During the clay court season, Ruud has held almost 86% of his service games and this First Round match is against an opponent who has struggled with his return.

One of the main reasons Casper Ruud may not have matched the levels he has shown is that he has not returned as well as he would have liked, although significantly better than Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. The slight dip in the return points won has really impacted the breaks of serve and it is a concern when asking Ruud to cover a number like this one.

However, I do think Jo-Wilfred Tsonga could be worn down in the match and he is only holding 67% of his service games played on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. I do think he will be inspired early and the match will be quite competitive in the first set, but Casper Ruud should be able to continue exerting pressure with his own serve and the Frenchman may just be overtaken by emotion the longer this match goes, eventually leading to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard for the top ten player in the match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Twelve months ago, Lorenzo Musetti held a 2-0 lead over Novak Djokovic in the Fourth Round of the French Open and looked like he might have been on the brink of a major upset. The then 19 year old Italian was not able to hold himself together and the body let him down as he was forced to retire in the fifth set, while the now 20 year old has just had a few issues with finding the consistency needed on the Tour.

It has been far from ideal preparation going into the French Open as Lorenzo Musetti was forced to retire from his match in the Madrid Masters against Alexander Zverev with an apparent leg injury. This was certainly serious enough for Musetti to miss his home Masters event in Rome and there has to be some uncertainty about how he is feeling before a very tough First Round match at the French Open.

The match up with Stefanos Tsitsipas has not been a good one for Lorenzo Musetti who has lost their two meetings in 2021. In those matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to really exert his dominance on the return of serve and he has broken in 45% of the return games played, while holding onto his own serve in 90% of games played.

One of those wins came on the clay courts and Stefanos Tsitsipas has put together another strong season on the red dirt which includes picking up the title in Monte Carlo before reaching the Semi Final in Madrid and the Final in Rome. Being in the bottom half of the Men's draw in Paris has given Stefanos Tsitsipas a real chance to play in the Final here for the second year in a row having lost in five sets to Novak Djokovic in 2021.

He had a 2-0 lead that day, but Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to play his best tennis on this surface and I think he holds all the cards to win this match and win by a margin that would make a statement to the rest of the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti is a strong return player and he could cause problems, but if his movement is still restricted, I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas can move him around and wear him down. The Greek superstar is a very consistent return player on the clay courts and I think he has enough all around tennis to continue his dominance of his younger opponent as Stefanos Tsitsipas moves through to the Second Round.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: He never really hid his dislike of the clay courts, but the run in the French Open in 2021 showed Daniil Medvedev what he can do on this surface. Injury and the decision to have surgery meant Daniil Medvedev missed almost the entirety of the clay court season with the sole tournament he joined in Geneva ended in an opening match defeat to Richard Gasquet.

You can forgive Daniil Medvedev for making a slow start in that match considering the length of time he has been away from the Tour and adding in a new surface, one that he will admit is still not his best. However, the performance in the second set in that defeat will be encouraging and I do think the World Number 2, and soon to be returning to World Number 1, can make a positive start on his return to the French Open.

Playing against a clay court specialist is a challenge, but Facundo Bagnis had a slight injury concern last week in Geneva which forced a withdrawal in the First Round having won a couple of Qualifiers.

The numbers overall for Facundo Bagnis are decent, but you do have to remember that he does not play against top opponents all the time. Over the course of the clay court season, Bagnis does hold a winning record, but he is just 1-3 against top 100 Ranked opponents and his numbers dip considerably behind both serve and on return.

Being a left hander will make things a bit more awkward against most, but Facundo Bagnis would naturally be going into the strength of Daniil Medvedev and I simply think he will struggle to cope if the World Number 2 is even at 80% for this one.

Facundo Bagnis has a vulnerable serve, one that I expect Daniil Medvedev to attack, and I think it is going to lead to a good win for the higher Ranked player. There will be much tougher tests ahead in the French Open draw, but Daniil Medvedev should be in a good place with that match in Geneva under the belt and his successes at the French Open twelve months ago means it is not the same kind of mental challenge to perform here as there may have been previously.

After a competitive set, set and a half, I think Daniil Medvedev will get stronger and he may just see Facundo Bagnis wilt away in this First Round match.

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Hugo Gaston: In the early Rounds of the Grand Slam events, you get plenty of matches with wide spreads like we see in the First Round at Roland Garros.

Some players are more capable of covering than others, but this looks to be a rare moment in which Alex De Minaur can be asked to get the better of such a spread like this one on a clay court. This is the least favourite surface of the Australian with a largely weak serve not getting any help from the surface like he will on the grass and the clay courts.

Movement is perhaps something that Alex De Minaur is still working out on the surface too, and put those factors together and you can perhaps understand why he has only held 72% of the service games played on the clay in 2022. Those numbers do take a significant step up when only considering matches against opponents outside the top twenty of the World Rankings and that is the level of opponent that Alex De Minaur will be facing in the First Round here.

Of course you do have to also factor in that De Minaur is going to have to deal with the home crowd that will get behind Hugo Gaston, but the Frenchman has had a difficult clay court season after suffering a hand injury in Munich. He had to withdraw from a match on that day, but Hugo Gaston has lost three clay court matches in a row since then and has been struggling to even compete in those defeats.

It has to be a worry ahead of the First Round match against Alex De Minaur, especially with the serve one that can be attacked by someone who is happy to compete all day long like the Australian.

Hugo Gaston has really had a hard time getting into the return games on the red dirt this season, but I expect him to have more joy in this one with Alex De Minaur happy to use his serve as a rally starter in large part.

An edge with Alex De Minaur is the efficiency in winning points behind his first serve and I think that will the main reason he is able to work his way past the home player. Hugo Gaston has to be inspired being back in Paris where he reached the Fourth Round in 2020, but he has not won a match in the main draw at this tournament when the tournament has been played in its usual spot in the calendar in May and I think De Minaur is going to find enough breaks of serve to eventually earn the cover of this mark.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 10-10, - 2.44 Units (40 Units Staked, - 6.10% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2022- Game 1-4 (May 17-24)

NBA Conference Finals 2022- Game 1-4

A quick look at the last four teams standing in the NBA would have most unsurprised to read the names of the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors still standing.

The Dallas Mavericks look to be the outlier, but they may have the best player left in the PlayOffs and are coming in off an upset of the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns. The Western Conference certainly looked more open of the two and that has played out with both of the top two Seeds out of the West, but those two Seeds are facing one another in the East.

You could make a case for any of the four teams to win the NBA Championship from here and the first four games of both Eastern and Western Conference Finals will take place over the next eight days. There is little rest time for teams looking to make the adjustments from game to game and you do have to wonder how much of an impact there will be from the Conference Semi Final Series that saw the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics needing to win a Game 7 to earn their spots in the Conference Finals.

Both Series should be fun for different reasons- I think the Western Conference Finals will be a high-scoring one with the veterans of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson trying to keep Luka Doncic out, while the Eastern Conference Finals look like they could be tight, competitive and very physical games between the Celtics and the Miami Heat.

The NBA Picks have not had a very good Conference Semi Final run and I have been a little frustrated by that.

The Conference Finals can be tougher to get a read on with the oddsmakers usually right on top of the lines, but I am expecting better from myself.

As I have done previously, Games 1-4 selections will be contained in this thread, but I will have a new one for Games 5-7.

Tuesday 17th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: When the PlayOff bracket was put together, it felt the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were rightly down as the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Both have backed that up with Series wins over the Atlanta Hawks/Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks respectively, but it is clear that the Heat have had the kinder path through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The two teams have both dropped just three games on their way to the Conference Finals, but the Heat have been off and preparing for a few days after the Celtics were forced to win a Game 7 at home on Sunday.

There are two schools of thought with how this will manifest in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals- the first is that the layoff can affect the rhythm and shooting consistency of the team that have been resting, especially against a focused opponent that hasn't had the same layoff; the second is that Game 7 will have taken something out of the tank of the team having to win a pressurised game and that they could be caught short with this Conference Finals beginning so soon after the Semi Final Series have ended.

In recent years it has been the second of the scenarios which has come true more often than not and teams playing off a Game 7 are winning just 39% of Game 1s in the next Series historically. That has to be a concern for the Boston Celtics who faced one tough opponent and now have to deal with another, one that beat them in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games inside the NBA Bubble a couple of years ago.

Things will feel different this time with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics both going to have to deal with tough road games, but I do think the Heat have the edge in Game 1, especially with the top Coaching they receive. Even though they only found out their opponent on Sunday, Miami would likely have planned for either the Celtics or Bucks and I do think the Heat will be ready to compete.

Overall I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team, but this opening spot is perhaps not ideal.

The Miami Heat are a very good Defensive team and have the depth and the shooting options to match the Boston Celtics in what feels a more superior way than the Milwaukee Bucks could without Khris Middleton in the line up. The Celtics do have an edge with their three point shooting and will take a lot of shots from long range which always gives them a chance, but the Miami Heat should be able to hold serve in Game 1 with their star players having had the rest an the Heat are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite.

Boston have continued to impress in their role as the road underdog, and that deserves plenty of respect, but Game 1 might see them just run out of gas in the Second Half to allow the Number 1 Seed to move into a lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Wednesday 18th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: After a couple of years when injuries have hurt the Golden State Warriors core, the likes of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Steph Curry all entered the post-season feeling pretty good. The Number 3 Seeded Warriors have long been amongst the very favourites to win the NBA Championship with that core together and the likes of Jordan Poole have stepped up their own level alongside the veterans to make Golden State extremely dangerous.

They have to be respected, although at the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the Warriors are not the same team they were when dominating the top of the NBA a few seasons ago. Those veteran players are perhaps not as consistent as they once were, but I am expecting Golden State to reach the NBA Finals as they face a Dallas Mavericks team that is looking to play a brand of basketball that the Warriors will recognise.

Some have compared the Mavericks to the Houston Rockets of the James Harden era and that was a team that did struggle to match up with the Golden State Warriors until they found the experience they needed to challenge Golden State.

I think that could let the Mavericks down in this Western Conference Finals Series even with Luka Doncic playing at an incredible level.

While he may be the best player on the court, the Dallas role players could be under a pressure to keep the scoring up and this time they are facing an opponent that can be clinical from the three point range. That lack of shooting hurt the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Semi Final Series, but the Warriors will feel they have a number of players that can heat up from long range which will give them the edge.

Dallas did win three of the four regular season meetings so won't be afraid of mixing it with the Golden State Warriors, but they are coming in off a Game 7 win over the Phoenix Suns. As I've mentioned in the preview for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, those teams coming off a Game 7 have struggled in the opening game of their next Series, although Dallas do have one more day of rest compared with the Boston Celtics.

The Mavericks have to be respected for how they have performed Defensively in their Series win over the Phoenix Suns, but they did struggle in the first three road games. The role players will have been given a boost by the blowout win in Game 7 on the road, but this Golden State Warriors team may have too much scoring power in this opening game of the Western Conference Finals if there is some lingering fatigue from the emotions of winning that last game in Phoenix.

Both teams have played well off a relatively long rest for the NBA season, while Golden State have been strong at home with a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine here.

Dallas were just 1-3 against the spread as the road underdog in their last Series and I think the manner of their win in Game 7 will see the team come back to the mean mark and that should be enough to give the Golden State Warriors the momentum to move clear in the Fourth Quarter.

Thursday 19th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Marcus Smart was always trending towards missing out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the late scratch of Al Horford left the Boston Celtics shorthanded. It sounds like Al Horford will be out until this weekend when the Series heads to the TD Garden for the first time, but the return of Smart could be a huge boost for the team.

They actually outscored the Miami Heat in three of the four Quarters played, but the Heat changed the entire momentum of Game 1 in the Third Quarter when they finished with 25 points more than the Number 2 Seed. It was a lead that the Miami Heat were never going to relinquish at that point and they made enough plays in the Fourth Quarter to hold onto an 11 point win.

You could potentially blame the Game 7 that the Boston Celtics had to win on Sunday, but the reality is that they made too many mistakes in the Third Quarter with turnovers sparking fast break points, and ultimately the Boston Celtics were not able to stop the bleeding with a terrible effort from the field the other way.

Jayson Tatum admitted that he needs to be a lot better if the Celtics are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and there is room for improvement from the next star of the NBA. He had seven turnovers and a poor day shooting from the three point range, but Jayson Tatum has shown throughout the NBA PlayOffs that he can bounce back from underwhelming games.

You cannot expect Marcus Smart to be at full health, but his return should make things a bit tougher for the Miami Heat who shot 49% from the field in Game 1. Both teams struggled from the three point range, but the Heat had the deeper bench and that played out in Game 1 to give them the lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I do think the Boston Celtics will be better with Marcus Smart in the line up though and the zigzag theory has been the play in recent Conference Finals games. Those teams coming in off a loss are 14-4-1 against the spread in the last nineteen games in that spot, while Number 1 Seeds have a poor 15-24-1 recent record against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points in the Conference Finals, although Miami have overcome that once already.

Opposing Miami is not easy considering how well they have played at home in recent weeks, while home teams who have won Game 1 of the Conference Finals Series have tended to win Game 2. With this being a short spread, the Heat will feel confident of covering if they are able to win, but I do think the Boston Celtics will make some adjustments that helps them back into the Series.

The Celtics have covered in their last four after a straight up loss and I will back the road team with the points in Game 2 to at least keep this one much closer than Game 1 ended up being.

Friday 20th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: It feels like the Dallas Mavericks have accepted that they are going to live or die by the three point shot and it is asking a lot of the role players to produce consistently on the road. Yes, they won a Game 7 in the Conference Semi Finals at the Phoenix Suns, but the Dallas Mavericks were beaten in the other three road games in that Series and suffered a couple of blowout losses when going cold from the distance.

Luka Doncic is going to be better in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals Series having had an inefficient Game 1, but the superstar for the Mavericks cannot win the Finals on his own. He knows his team-mates are going to have to be a lot better both with their open three pointers as well as their contested shots having hit just 23% from outside the arc in the blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Despite the wide win, Golden State were not much stronger from three point range and actually hit fewer three pointers than the Dallas Mavericks, but they were a touch more efficient. The Warriors were also happier getting to the Free Throw line and challenge the Mavericks inside the paint, while Dallas attempted way over 50% of their shots from outside the arc.

You have to be wary of the Mavericks getting hot at any time, but they are playing a balanced Golden State team who shared out the points in Game 1. While you cannot expect Andrew Wiggins to have the same kind of Offensive output on any given night, you can look for Wiggins to at least pressure Luka Doncic and make him work for his points, while the rest of the team try to tire him out on the Defensive side of the court.

The line has moved somewhat between Game 2 and Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors still look more capable of keeping the momentum going with the approach they have taken. Big favourites have not been on a very good run in recent Conference Finals outings, but the Warriors covered easily in the first game and I think they can do the same here, even if I do believe this game is going to be closer than what we saw a couple of days ago.

Dallas are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games in the PlayOffs having been blown out last time out, and they did find themselves 2-0 down in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns.

The Warriors are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing off a double digit win.

I have to have a lot of respect for the Dallas Mavericks who showed plenty of character and heart in their Conference Semi Final Series success, but the Golden State Warriors look to match up well with them and know how to defend teams that have the style the Mavericks bring to the court. While closer, I still expect the Warriors to cover again.

Saturday 21st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: The first two games have ended in big wins for the winning team, but the Boston Celtics will return home with a split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and holding all of the momentum in the Series. The Boston Celtics have outscored the Miami Heat in more than half of the eight Quarters played in the first two games, while the Heat have managed to put more points on the board in just the Third Quarter of Game 1.

Erik Spoelstra is going to have spent the last couple of days thinking of the adjustments he needs to make to turn things around for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. However, things will be much tougher for the Miami Heat if they have to go without PJ Tucker, Max Struse and Gabe Vincent in Game 3 with all three players listed as Questionable in the last Miami injury report.

I do think all will suit up in this pivotal Game 3 with the Series shifting back to Boston and the TD Garden.

However, the Miami Heat are going to be put under intense pressure from the Boston Celtics who looked much stronger all around with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the rotation. An improvement was expected, but the Boston Celtics were able to do what they liked on both ends of the court and it is perhaps no surprise that they are going to be heading into Game 3 as a big favourite.

It is hard to see things much differently when you think of how well the Boston Celtics played in Game 2 and they also were pretty strong outside of one Quarter in Game 1. The size and athleticism of the Celtics is tough to match, but I do like how well the Miami Heat have been Coached and the feeling is that they can make the adjustments to keep this one closer than the last game was.

Much will depend on whether the Heat can get closer to the shooters from the three point range in this one, but I do think the Miami Heat will make the adjustments to do that.

The Heat are now 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when beaten by double digits, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog.

At the same time the Boston Celtics are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five in the Conference Finals.

Teams playing with the zigzag theory behind them are 15-4-1 against the spread in the last twenty in that spot. Another trend behind the Heat is that teams who have lost by at least ten points in Game 2 have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten games in that spot and I do think the Number 1 Seed should be respected and looked at as a team that can keep this well within the line set.

Miami did beat a strong Boston team here at the end of March and I think the Miami Heat can upset the odds and keep this one close.

Sunday 22nd May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A barrage of three pointers helped Dallas Mavericks move up into 19 point lead over the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 and the underdog had a big lead at half time. However, there has been much criticism of the game management in the second half and a poor Third Quarter allowed the Warriors to get back into the game and eventually use the momentum to kick past the Mavericks.

Being 2-0 down will hurt the Dallas Mavericks who have had to face the music with their approach in the second half of Game 2. Even Head Coach Jason Kidd made it clear that his team had to look for another way to attack the Golden State Warriors when the three pointers dried up in the second half as the game slipped away from them.

In the cold light of day, Jason Kidd seems to have changed his mind and it sounds like the Dallas Mavericks are going to continue to look for the open shooter from the three point range. They have taken a lot more shots from the distance than the Warriors in this Western Conference Finals Series, but the Mavericks are not hitting as efficiently as they would have liked and it has left them in a tough position.

The Dallas Mavericks were in the same position in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns, but they were much better at home in that Series and won all three games played here. The role players have been more confident in hitting their shots at home, while the Dallas Mavericks are 25-10 against the spread in their last thirty-five games at home.

It may surprise some to see the Mavericks as the favourite in this Game 3 at home, but teams coming into Game 3 with a 0-2 deficit have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten times that situation has come up. As mentioned, the Dallas role players have been more confident at home and able to sustain their Offensive output here, and they will look to put the pressure on the Golden State Warriors as they continue to 'live or die by the three'.

There is no doubt that it is difficult to oppose the Golden State Warriors who have been shooting the ball with more efficiency than the Dallas Mavericks and are plenty experienced. They have a depth which means any of their starters could pick up the scoring slack, but the Warriors will know they are going to have to try and match the intensity that the Mavericks will likely be playing with on Sunday.

Golden State have not covered in any of their last four road games and I do think the Dallas Mavericks can be backed here.

The sharp money looks to be on the Mavericks and I think they can cover to reignite this Western Conference Finals Series.

Monday 23rd May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: This is being written out a little later than normal for a very simple reason.

Injuries.

Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics feel banged up ahead of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and even now there is some uncertainty as to who will be available and who will be having to miss out.

Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are Questionable for this important game for the Boston Celtics, while Jimmy Butler is the big concern for the Miami Heat. It sounds like Butler will suit up despite missing the second half of the previous game, while Tyler Herro could be a big absentee for the Number 1 Seed.

Jayson Tatum looks to have escaped an injury having had an issue with his shoulder in Game 3, but now the attention will be turning to those on the court after the Miami Heat made a fast start and held onto a lead and a win to move 2-1 ahead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

In a strange turn of events, the Miami Heat have only won two of the twelve Quarters that have been played by these teams in this Series, but those have come by a 25 point margin in the Third Quarter of Game 1 and a 21 point margin in the First Quarter of Game 3. Both times it has proved to be the difference with the Boston rally coming up short in the last game, while the Celtics know they can clean up some of their own issues to at least level the Series before we all head back to South Beach.

Turnovers have been the critical issue in both of those Quarters that have seen the Miami Heat pull away and win by big margins. The expectation is that the Celtics have the edge if they can be a little more careful with their basketball handling and I do think they will come out with the intensity they showed in Game 2 after a disappointing defeat.

Boston showed that throughout the Series with the Milwaukee Bucks too and they are now 5-0 against the spread in their last five following a loss. Despite the loss in Game 3, the Celtics remain a solid favourite to back, although you have to respect the Miami Heat for the performances as a road underdog.

However, the Heat were pretty well beaten in road games at the Philadelphia 76ers in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think they could potentially exhale after taking back home court advantage. With a couple of players banged up and with the Boston Celtics likely to be much more focused and intense, I am not sure the Heat can rely on the home team turning the ball over as much as they have a couple of times in the Series, including to open Game 3.

The public look to be behind the Heat with the points, but I like the Boston Celtics to bounce and continue the zigzag trend in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Home teams that are not 0-3 down going into Game 4 of the Conference Finals are also on a 9-2 run against the spread and I think the Boston Celtics cover on their way to levelling up the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tuesday 24th May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: After rallying in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors headed to the Dallas Mavericks with a strong lead in the Western Conference Finals, and another strong Third Quarter showing helped the Warriors move to the brink of returning to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years.

For those who thought the good times for over, this has been a surprising season put together by the Warriors, but all associated with Golden State had much stronger belief in their own team. The veterans of the Championship teams continue to lead the way, but the Warriors are well backed up now and will be confident in securing a win in Game 4 and have plenty of time to prepare for the NBA Finals which begins next week.

However, the Warriors have not been at their best in close out spots with a 3-0 lead in the Series and they are just 6-4 in the last ten Game 4s when they have moved into this position. The Denver Nuggets beat the Warriors in that situation earlier in the PlayOffs, but it is hard to back against the Golden State Warriors.

For starters, teams in a 0-3 hole have struggled in Game 4 of the Conference Finals, while the Dallas Mavericks will also know that no team in NBA history has been able to win a Series when they have fallen into this position.

Luka Doncic continues to try and carry the Mavericks on his back, but he was not helped by the role players in Game 3 with the likes of Reggie Bullock and Max Kleber combining for a 0/15 effort from the field. It wasn't as if the two were having to hit contested shots, but they missed open looks and ultimately it made it very difficult for the Mavericks to break down the Warriors.

At this point I don't think the Mavericks are going to change the plan and I expect them to continue shooting the ball at a high rate from the three point line. You have to believe they are going to have a bounce back effort from the poor outing in Game 3 and we did see the Dallas Mavericks pick up their play in Game 2 after an underwhelming Game 1 effort already in this Western Conference Finals.

Stopping the Warriors will be a huge challenge for the Mavericks who have allowed their opponent to score at least 109 points in each of the wins in the Series. They have a balance Offensive approach and that saw five of their players reach double digits in terms of points in the last game.

Luka Doncic is likely to stay in attack mode as he looks to become the third player in the history of the NBA to score at least 40 points in three Conference Finals games, but the I am expecting better from his role players and that could see this Game 4 surpass the total points line.

It is hard to imagine this Dallas Mavericks team being able to shut down the Golden State Warriors, but with a better shooting effort expected from the hosts, I think Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals Series could hit the over.

MY PICKS: 17/05 Miami Heat - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

18/05 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

20/05 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

21/05 Miami Heat + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

23/05 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

24/05 Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors Over 215.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-1, + 3.55 Units (6 Units Staked, + 59.17% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (May 24th)

There won't be any tennis picks on Thursday as I will be away for the Europa League Final until late Thursday evening, but I will look through the schedule for Friday and see if anything stands out.

So far this week there haven't been too many picks as I have not seen a lot of options, but Wednesday looks to be a busier day with the majority of tournaments looking to get their Second Round matches completed so the events can be concluded on Saturday.

The draw for the French Open main draw will also be made on Friday and we should have the schedule of play for Sunday released on Saturday when the outright picks and Day 1 Picks should be ready to go.

Before that I will have a thread for the FA Cup Final and the big boxing night at Bramall Lane where Kell Brook defends his World Welterweight Title against Errol Spence Jr in what looks a cracking fight.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Going into the clay court season, Albert Ramos-Vinolas may have been one of those players people would have picked for a really strong showing. He did reach the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, but there have been some disappointing early losses too and the Spaniard is going to have to defend a lot of points in Paris next week.

Back to back losses to Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and John Isner would have been matches that Ramos-Vinolas may have expected to win. That has got to have knocked some confidence and there is no doubting the danger that Andrey Kuznetsov brings to the court in this one.

The Russian has talent and has previously enjoyed his time in Geneva with some solid wins behind him. Kuznetsov came from a set down to beat Thomaz Bellucci in the First Round although he has been inconsistent on the clay courts at this level in his career.

There are times Kuznetsov is picking all the right shots and he can be very tough to break with the way he approaches the match. That will give Ramos-Vinolas something to think about, but I do think the Spaniard is the better clay court player and I would expect him to showcase that over the course of the match.

It might need three sets to determine the winner, but I am looking for Ramos-Vinolas to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win in a topsy-turvy Second Round encounter.


Qiang Wang - 1.5 games v Shelby Rogers: There might be something that I don't know about how Qiang Wang is feeling, but I would have her as a much bigger favourite to win this match than the layers have in this Second Round encounter. Wang has been playing really well over the last few weeks and I think Shelby Rogers might be over-rated for a win over Caroline Wozniacki who had to retire in the second set of their match.

Rogers did play well at the French Open last season but she hasn't had a lot of matches under belt thanks to injury and early losses in a number of tournaments in preparation for Roland Garros this year.

The American is capable on the clay courts with the added time allowing her to power past opponents but I think she is not playing with the consistency or had enough matches for the rhythm that will be needed to beat Wang.

Wang is 9-3 on the clay courts this year, although a few of those have been on the Qualifiers, and that comes at the end of a title win in Zhengzhou on the hard courts which have clearly given her more belief. I think that carries over here and she can beat Rogers in two tight sets which will be enough to cover this number.


Oceane Dodin - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There is a lot to like about Oceane Dodin's game and the young Frenchwoman has the chance to put together a strong week in Nuremberg in preparation for the French Open next week. Some inconsistencies still come through, but Dodin is able to hit the ball very hard through the clay courts and can have the patience to win this match.

She will need to be patient against Misaki Doi who is a solid enough defensive player that will look for the mistakes to be made against her. However her lack of real punch off the ground does mean that opponents are able to get the upper hand in rallies and staying in the match from a mental point of view is the key for Dodin in this one.

If she starts getting frustrated with the Doi defences, it is going to lead to more and more unforced errors and that is a surefire way to lose a match. However, Dodin will have the edge in the rallies with the chances she will have the first strike more often than not and her confidence can improve if she is able to restrict those mistakes and ultimately win the points.

It is a match up of contrasting styles, but one where I think the power and aggression of Dodin can see her get the better of Doi in the Second Round. Dodin should be able to get her teeth into the Doi service games and that can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 kind of win for the younger player and a place in the Quarter Final on Thursday.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Hyeon Chung: There is no doubting that Tomas Berdych is not the player he once was, but he is still a solid enough clay court player to win matches like this. When Berdych has been beaten, he has tended to be beaten fairly comfortably over the last few weeks on the clay courts, but he does have a 6-3 record on the surface.

Only one of his losses might be looked at as one he shouldn't have taken and Berdych would have covered this number of games in all six wins on the clay since April.

Hyeon Chung has to be respected as he has won three matches here in Lyon and this is the first match that Berdych will be playing. The win over Alexander Zverev in Barcelona looks a very good one for the youngster who has yet to really find the consistency to be playing in the biggest events on the Tour having missed out in Madrid and Rome.

Chung also had a strong run in Munich in his last tournament so you can see why the layers don't want to give too much away on the handicap in this one. The wins have been solid enough over the last couple of months, but I think Berdych has been beating those players he should be some comfort and I can see him doing the same on Wednesday.

It won't be easy for Berdych who has to play close to his best level to see off Chung in the Second Round. However I think he can do that in a 7-6, 6-4 win here in Lyon and I will back him to cover the games.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

Europa League Final Pick 2017- Ajax vs Manchester United (May 24th)

It has been a difficult twenty-four hours in Manchester after the latest act of terror in Western Europe and some of the images have been heartbreaking.

The fact that so many kids were actively targeted is sickening and there are going to be a lot of questions to answer in the coming weeks and months as the authorities get to work in figuring out whether this was a 'lone wolf' issue or something deeper and more threatening.

You've got to feel for the families who have lost loved ones.


Football does take a back seat when things like this happen, but this is part of our lives and we should not allow any set of idiots to dictate the way we should enjoy our lives.

Manchester will be united and will remain strong in the face of what has happened.


This is my thread for the Europa League Final Pick as Ajax get set to take on Manchester United in Stockholm on Wednesday 24th May. I will be in Stockholm and so this will be the featured post until I return on Thursday evening.

Ajax vs Manchester United Europa League Final 2017

Ajax

A young Ajax team have guided their club to the first European Final since playing in the Champions League Final in 1996 and they will believe they have nothing to lose in the Europa League Final. They have fallen short in the Dutch top flight by missing out on the title to Feyenoord, but Ajax have had a whole week to get that disappointment out of the system which should be easy enough when you think of what is coming up for them.

A four time European Cup winning club should not be considered a dark horse for a competition they enter, but things have changed for Ajax with the majority of young Dutch talent moving into the bigger Leagues much earlier than in the past. That made this run to the Europa League Final unexpected and Ajax were considered underdogs in the Quarter Final win over Schalke and in the Semi Final win over Lyon.

Ajax have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, although looking a little further shows they have lost half of their last 6. All of those defeats have come away from the Amsterdam Arena and Ajax have not won any of their last 6 away Europa League games, while they have lost their last 3 in the Knock Out Rounds at Copenhagen, Schalke and Lyon.

Nick Viergever is suspended having been sent off at Lyon in the Semi Final Second Leg.


Expected Ajax Starting Line Up: Onana, Veltman, Sanchez, de Ligt, Riedewald, Schone, Ziyech, Klaassen, Younes, Traore, Dolberg.

Manchester United

At the moment you would probably look at this season and consider it a decent one for Manchester United, but the overall grade is going to depend on whether they can win the Europa League or not. Win the competition and you would consider two trophies and a place back in the Champions League a success, but lose and the English League Cup Final success won't be enough for people to accept the 6th place finish in the Premier League.

Some of the better performances for Manchester United have come in the Europa League this season, but there have been some nerves in the narrow wins over Anderlecht and Celta Vigo in the last two Rounds. Ever since this competition began, Manchester United have been considered the favourites to win it, although that means nothing ahead of the Final in Stockholm.

Manchester United had won none of their 4 games in all competitions since beating Celta Vigo 0-1 in the Europa League Semi Final First Leg, but they did beat Crystal Palace 2-0 to sign off in the Premier League on Sunday. They have only won 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions, but Manchester United have won 3 of their last 5 on their travels in the Europa League.

Eric Bailly is suspended after being sent off in the Europa League Semi Final Second Leg, while the likes of Marcos Rojo, Luke Shaw and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are long-term absentees.


ExpectedManchester United Starting Line Up: Romero, Valencia, Smalling, Blind, Darmian, Fellaini, Herrera, Pogba, Mata, Mkhitaryan, Rashford.

Ajax vs Manchester United Head to Head

Manchester United and Ajax met in the 1976/77 UEFA Cup and the 2011/12 Europa League and on both occasions Manchester United won the tie on aggregate.


However, the 4 previous matches have been split with both teams winning twice each.

Prediction

The Europa League Final comes from Stockholm on Wednesday and both Ajax and Manchester United have a chance to add silverware to their season as well as earning a spot in the Champions League Group Stage for the 2017/18 season.

It is a match up of the experience of Manchester United against a youthful Ajax side who have played with exuberance and the freedom of inexperience to help them through to the Final. While Manchester United have been winning ties 'professionally', Ajax have looked to push forward and score goals which has left them vulnerable at times.

The Dutch side have also been much stronger at the Amsterdam Arena than they have been on their travels in the Europa League and that could potentially be in play here. While this isn't an official away game, the fact is that Ajax have really enjoyed themselves in their own surroundings and have lost their last 3 Knock Out ties away from home at Copenhagen, Schalke and Lyon.

The inexperience which has seen Ajax play with an attacking verve akin to what Monaco have produced in the Champions League has almost caught them out in the last two Rounds of the Europa League. They were fortunate to beat Schalke in extra time in the Quarter Final and Lyon almost came all the way back from 5-1 down on aggregate in falling short 4-5 in their Semi Final.

Monaco ended up finding the defensive shape and strength of Juventus too much in their Champions League Semi Final and I can see Manchester United and Jose Mourinho try to do the same to Ajax in the Final of the Europa League. The defensive shape from Manchester United has been decent for the most part this season and Mourinho will most certainly feel Manchester United will create chances with the quality they do bring in the final third.

They have played really well away from Old Trafford in the last couple of Europa League ties, far better than they have in Manchester in those Rounds. With the quality and pace Manchester United can provide in this one in the final third, I do think they can create chances against an Ajax defence that has been vulnerable away from the Amsterdam Arena.

Don't be surprised at all to see goals in this one as Ajax won't be afraid to send a lot of men forward even if they are chasing the game. The youngsters will have plenty of pace and energy themselves to give Manchester United some problems too, especially with the defensive injuries they are dealing with, and Ajax will create their own chances.


I do think there will be goals and Manchester United might be very dangerous on the counter attack as long as they can show some of the clinical finishing that has been lacking at times. Ajax won't ever give this one up, but I think they could be undone one more time late in the game as Manchester United kill them off and win the one trophy that has been missing off their 'Roll of Honour'.

I will look for Manchester United to win this game and I will also have a separate pick on there being at least three goals shared out between these clubs in what could be a very entertaining Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Manchester United @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajax-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2016 (May 24th)

The first couple of days of the French Open have been very busy for myself, but things have settled down and I should have these posts published earlier in the coming days.

That doesn't mean I haven't been able to look through the schedule and make a few picks from the First Round matches that have been scheduled. The first two picks have not come out the way I expected, but that is thanks to Grigor Dimitrov blowing a 2-1 lead in sets and a break in the fourth set before going down in five sets on Monday.

Hopefully Tuesday will be a better day and things can pick up from the second Grand Slam of the season over the next two weeks.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: These two players met last year at the US Open in what ended a very convincing win for Venus Williams, but the clay courts are not really conducive to the way she plays as the hard courts are. The last six months of the season are going to be much more important for Venus Williams as she can have a real impact on the grass at Wimbledon and hard courts at the US Open, but I still think she has too much for Anett Kontaveit in this First Round match.

If you think Venus Williams is not a fan of this surface, Kontaveit might not be that comfortable on the clay either. This will be her first match on the clay courts this season and last year she lost her sole match on the main Tour on the surface, although that was not at the French Open.

It isn't like Williams has had a lot of clay court tennis under her own legs, but she will be more comfortable on the surface knowing what to expect. Kontaveit will be able to have more success against the serve in this one than she did at the US Open, but ultimately I think she is going to come up short again.

There is no doubt this is a big number for someone like Venus Williams to cover on the clay, but I do think she will be able to create a few opportunities to break serve. That should lead to a 64, 62 kind of win and a place in the Second Round for the American.


Julia Goerges + 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: The British Number 1 has been placed as a pretty hefty favourite to win this match against Julia Goerges, but I am not sure that is completely justified. While Johanna Konta has had a wonderful eleven months which has seen her move up the World Rankings, she is not perhaps at her most comfortable on the clay courts.

On the other hand Goerges is very happy playing on this surface and she has the kind of power to give Konta something to think about.

My biggest concern for Goerges has to be the inconsistencies she produces from game to game, but she is the type of player that can win a set by a wide margin which could make these games very helpful when it is all said and done. Konta is the kind of player that can extract those errors from the Goerges game that I am worried about, but I do think that these players are closely matched on this surface.

Actually I thought Goerges might have been the slight favourite going into the match, so I do think the games being given to her have to be worth taking. It should be a close match, one that could easily go into three sets and one that Goerges has every chance of winning outright and so I will back the German in this one with the handicap.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Thanks to some of the withdrawals in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros, World Number 35 Federico Delbonis has been Seeded at the French Open. He might have hoped for an easier draw than Pablo Carreno Busta who is a very comfortable clay court player, but Delbonis has won all four previous matches against the Spaniard.

In fact Delbonis has won all seven completed sets against Carreno Busta and has to be part of the reason he comes into this one as the favourite. Both players have had some very good results on the clay during the European swing over the last few weeks with Delbonis winning a title and Carreno Busta reaching the Final of an event himself.

There have been some disappointing results too, but both players might have headed into the French Open hoping for a decent run.

This is a tough draw for both players on the form that their opponents have been producing. I do think Delbonis' left handed serve gives him a slight edge as well as the fact he has dominated Carreno Busta in the previous matches including earlier this season in Casablanca. I think that will help him come through this one in four sets and I like the chances of Delbonis being able to cover this number.


Nicolas Almagro + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This looked like being one of the better matches in the First Round but the layers seem to be convinced that it is only going to go one way. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a fairly healthy favourite to see off Nicolas Almagro, but I am of the belief that the Spaniard can come through and get within this number.

It hasn't been the best clay court season for Almagro, but he did win a title in Estoril. The consistency in his game is yet to return since his injury that curtailed 2015, but Almagro is a very strong clay court player and has to be considered a dangerous and live First Round opponent for the Seeded Kohlschreiber.

Kohlschreiber also had a title win over the last few weeks in Munich and reached the Semi Final in Barcelona. I thought the German might have been losing his way a little as the veteran has hit his 33rd year, but he has shown he is still very comfortable on the clay courts himself.

For me this looks a tight match that Almagro has a chance of winning outright, but certainly being able to keep competitive. It could easily be another that needs five sets to separate the players, while Almagro might take confidence from the fact he has won the last three matches on the clay courts between them, albeit a few years ago now.

If Almagro can bring his best form to the court, this should be a very entertaining First Round match and I will take the games here.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

French Open Day 1 Picks 2015 (May 24th)

The second Grand Slam event of the season is the only one that begins on a Sunday as they have decided to split the First Round matches over three days. Of course that is good for the fans who are attending the event with the chance to watch some tennis on the opening weekend without necessarily taking a day off from work to attend.

I am not sure how the players feel about having to start on Sunday, but there are some big names out there including Roger Federer who will be in the second match on the main court on Sunday. That comes after Simona Halep, the Runner Up in the women's event last year, opens the tournament on the Philippe Chatrier Court.


Before I get on to my picks from Day 1 of the tournament, I have made some outright picks from the tournament which can be read here.


Lukas Rosol - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: It has been a generation since a Swedish player would come to the French Open and expect to walk away with the title, but Elias Ymer could be the next Swede who looks to take over the mantle left by Bjorn Borg. There have been some quality players from that nation since Borg, but big things are expected of Ymer, although the 19 year old isn't ready for a deep run in a Grand Slam.

However, Ymer has shown the belief he has in his own game to come through the qualifiers and that makes him a dangerous First Round opponent for Lukas Rosol who can be incredibly inconsistent. The clay courts are supposedly Rosol's favourite surface despite having the tools to be a threat on faster surfaces, but the time he gets on the clay to wind up his shots seems to suit the Czech player.

That hasn't really shown up for Rosol during this current clay court season as he hasn't got the results he may have expected for himself and the most notable action was getting into a tense argument with Andy Murray in Munich. Rosol has the game to really trouble Ymer, but he has to stay mentally focused if he is going to win the match against a talented opponent.

The one problem Ymer has had at the main Tour level is protecting his serve though and that might be the reason he is unable to complete what would be an upset win. I expect he might take a set off of Rosol, but there is every chance the latter wins at least one set with a double break and that should help him cover this number.


Marcel Granollers - 4.5 games v Matthias Bachinger: Any time a Qualifier is your opponent at a Grand Slam, the player in the main draw has to be careful knowing their opponent has played themselves into some kind of form. That will be what Matthias Bachinger will be hoping having won three matches in Paris to make the main draw and he has not dropped a set in those wins, although it is a surprise run of form considering how Bachinger had been struggling ahead of Roland Garros.

After qualifying, Bachinger has to be happy with the First Round match against Marcel Granollers even if he has lost all three previous matches against the Spaniard. That is because Granollers has reserved his best form for the Doubles Tour this season and has been inconsistent when playing Singles matches, even if he has recorded more wins during the clay court season.

Granollers is actually one of the Spaniards that likes playing on the faster surfaces, but has played better on the clay courts than what many might have expected. That is especially the case when looking at how Granollers played on the faster surfaces to start the season so his confidence could be restored in time for this Grand Slam.

One concern I would have for Granollers when it comes to a spread like this is his tendency to give away sets 62 or worse which would make this number tough to cover. However, I think Granollers might be able to wear down Bachinger as long as he serves well and that should give him every chance to cover this number even in a four set win.


Pablo Andujar - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: I can guess that both of these Spanish players look forward to the French Open more than any other Grand Slam and would feel they can have a good run with a decent draw. Neither Pablo Andujar nor Albert Ramos-Vinolas would have wanted to play one another in the First Round, although the former is probably the happier of the two having won 9/11 previous matches between them.

Both players have had some good runs on the clay courts during the last six weeks as both favour the surface more than any other.

The head to head will play a part in this match simply because of the number of previous matches and a clear advantage Andujar has in those matches. Andujar will also know exactly what to expect from the Ramos-Vinolas lefty serve and has found a way to dominate the second serve points which can make all the difference on the slower courts.

I don't think this will be a straight-forward match at all as Ramos-Vinolas has produced some good stuff recently, but I can see Andujar getting through in four sets while covering a relatively small number.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 5.5 games v Steve Johnson: This actually looks a pretty big number on first glance, especially when you consider the relatively weak serve that Guillermo Garcia-Lopez operates with. The first serve isn't all that bad, but the second serve is very attackable and is simply getting the point started so this match could come down to how much Steve Johnson has his eye in on the return.

Garcia-Lopez has performed well over the last six weeks though and the clay courts are clearly Johnson's worst surface as is it for many of the Americans currently on Tour. His first strike tennis doesn't always come off on the clay courts and going for break is tough on a surface where opponents will make you play at least one or two more balls than you'd have to on a hard court.

I do respect some of the battling displays Johnson has produced over the last six months despite not being fully comfortable on clay. He has given Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini plenty to think about, but could play those matches with more freedom as he had no expectation of winning.

That won't be the case against someone like Garcia-Lopez and Johnson may put himself under undue pressure to succeed. Johnson would be wrong to under-estimate Garcia-Lopez who won the title in Bucharest and had a couple of impressive wins in Rome a couple of weeks ago and that form should see him battle to a 76, 63, 64 win.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There are a number of matches in the women's draw also taking place on Sunday but the one that appeals the most is a fascinating one between Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Lucie Safarova with the latter being the Seeded player expected to progress.

That might be the expectation, but I think Pavlyuchenkova is going to make this  a real battle and this could easily be a match that goes the distance and perhaps needs a third set to separate them. With no final set tie-breaker, this spread is perhaps a more dangerous one than I would like, but I actually think Pavlyuchenkova can win the match outright and that is why I like the games.

The Russian seems to like the match up with Safarova as shown by their previous matches on surfaces that I would think suit the latter more than Pavlyuchenkova. Her movement is something of an issue which can be shown up in the longer rallies that develop on the clay courts, but I also think Pavlyuchenkova can get time to wind up her heavy groundstrokes.

If she can serve well, I think Safarova will be in a spot of bother in this match and this could be incredibly tight which makes the games being given to Pavlyuchenkova an attractive proposition.

MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)