Tennis Picks 2026 (Saturday 18th April)

The tournaments being played around Europe are all coming to a conclusion this weekend and the attention will soon turn to the Madrid 1000 event for both the ATP and WTA Tours.

The top of the ATP event has lost both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic with both players citing injury- the withdrawal of Alcaraz is more worrying considering he pulled out of the event in Barcelona before playing his Second Round match and the defending French Open Champion will be desperate to get some more clay court tennis under the legs at the Rome Masters in early May.

We know that Novak Djokovic is all about peaking for the Grand Slams, but his fans will also like to see him take part in a clay court event before the French Open gets underway at the end of next month.

The WTA event in Madrid is intact at the time of writing, but things can change quickly on the Tour as most begin to think about the second Grand Slam of the season.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Fabio Cobolli: At the end of March, Fabio Cobolli set a new career high World Ranking mark at Number 13 and he can move even higher than that if he is able to win the ATP Munich title on Sunday.

The performances at this event have been pretty strong, but the Italian has benefited from a draw in which he has not faced anyone Ranked higher than World Number 40.

You can only beat what is placed in front of you and so credit has to be given to Fabio Cobolli for the manner in which the wins have been produced. This is a clay court event, but it says something when you think Cobolli has only been broken twice in three matches, although he will be the first to admit that his serve will be tested considerably more by the World Number 3 compared with the opponents that have been seen off in this tournament.

Alexander Zverev showed his qualities in coming from behind to beat Francisco Cerundolo in the Quarter Final and he is very comfortable playing in front of the home fans. After dropping the first set 7-5, Alexander Zverev lost just two more games against a very solid clay courter, and he looks to have his eye in on the return of serve.

There is a pretty small sample of clay court results at this stage of the season, especially for these two players who have both begun the red dirt experience since the Tour moved back to Europe.

The numbers are pretty similar, but it cannot be ignored that Alexander Zverev has been facing considerably stronger opponents than the younger player across the net. It means Fabio Cobolli probably has another level to find if he is going to compete in this Semi Final and Alexander Zverev should be comfortable with the match up.

He has won both previous matches against Fabio Cobolli and Alexander Zverev has won all five sets played against one another.

They met at the French Open last year and Alexander Zverev was a very comfortable winner in that Third Round meeting- the higher Ranked player proved to have a real edge when it comes to the service numbers and that could play out again in a tournament that Alexander Zverev has really enjoyed.

In a best of three set format, this is a big spread, but Alexander Zverev has been playing with the intensity and qualities to find a way to break down the Fabio Cobolli game and ultimately make relatively comfortable passage into yet another Munich Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.34 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 16th April)

There may have been plenty of matches scheduled on Wednesday, but enough doubt around the majority of them meant a single selection was made.

Rafael Jodar came through some tough moments to earn his straight sets win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli for the second time in this clay court season and Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing from the Barcelona tournament means all eyes will be on the other young Spaniard who is now beginning to make headlines.

He will have to wait until Friday before the Quarter Final matches begin, but Thursday is all about completing the Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played this week.

Once again a number of matches have come close to being selected, but ultimately have not quite convinced enough and that means going with two selections from the ATP Munich event.

Francisco Cerundolo - 3.5 games v Botic van de Zandschlup: The move into the clay court season means there is limited samples of how players are performing, but some are more comfortable on the red dirt compared with others.

The World Number 19 Francisco Cerundolo is one of the more comfortable clay courters and tends to take in the South American Golden Swing in between the Australian Open and the big hard court events in North America in March. That was the case again in 2026 and Cerundolo does win plenty of matches on the clay, which is a solid reason behind his overall World Ranking mark.

A title has been won on the surface earlier this year, but Francisco Cerundolo suffered a relatively early loss in the opening tournament played on the European clay courts.

A comfortable win in the First Round against a Lucky Loser has taken Francisco Cerundolo through to this Round and he is the right favourite in this match.

You have to have respect for the early clay court form shown by Botic van de Zandschlup who reached the Semi Final in Budapest and who has another win under his belt here in Munich. However, it should also be noted that the 30 year old has yet to face anyone Ranked higher than World Number 60 on the surface and his numbers in recent years suggest the current level is unlikely to be sustained through the two big Masters events coming up before the French Open.

This is a player that has been pretty reliant on his serve, but that cannot be the case on the clay courts and that is where Francisco Cerundolo should have the edge.

He has won the two previous meetings between the players and both on the hard courts in 2025.

Francisco Cerundolo did not drop a set in either of those two matches and his confidence on the red dirt should make sure he is in a position to move into the Quarter Final behind another strong win against this opponent.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Gabriel Diallo: The most consistent Grand Slam success produced by Alexander Zverev has been at the French Open and he was leading Carlos Alcaraz in the Final of that Slam two years ago before eventually being beaten in five sets.

There is no doubt that Alexander Zverev will be heading to Paris as one of the favourites, although at the same time most would have Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner significantly shorter prices in the outright markets.

Yet another defeat to the new World Number 1 at the Monte Carlo Masters underlines the challenges that face Alexander Zverev when it comes to finally winning a Grand Slam. The feeling remains that the window has closed barring unexpected defeats for the top two players in the world, but Zverev cannot think like that and the Semi Final run in Monte Carlo is a reminder of his qualities.

Alexander Zverev is expected to have too much for Gabriel Diallo in this Second Round contest in Munich, especially as the World Number 37 has had limited success on the surface.

He took advantage of a Lucky Loser spot to enter the main draw at the Madrid Masters in 2025 and Gabriel Diallo reached the Quarter Final at that ATP 1000 event. However, Diallo will have to accept that he was given a pretty kind draw and the Canadian was just 3-5 on the clay court outside of that run in Madrid.

Opening defeats in Bucharest and Monte Carlo will have done little for the confidence and Gabriel Diallo beat a Qualifier Ranked outside the top 200 in the First Round here in Munich.

Suffice to say that this Second Round match is a significant step upwards and Gabriel Diallo was well beaten by Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open back in January. That was a First Round match played on a surface that would suit Diallo more than the clay courts here in Munich and it may be a tough ask to stick with the top Seed in this ATP 500 tournament.

MY PICKS: Francisco Cerundolo - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 0.91 Units (1 Unit Staked, + 91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 27th)

There are two events being played on the ATP Tour this week and the WTA Madrid Masters is set to get underway with First Round action on Thursday.

Even then, I did not have any Tennis Picks on Tuesday after looking through the schedules at Estoril and Munich- the latter tournament has been hit with poor weather early in the week and they are still playing catch up with First Round action on Wednesday, although I do like the look of a couple of players in the Second Round.

One of those will depend on when the markets are formulated and whether the mark is where I would expect, but I will definitely have at least one selection from the ATP Munich event.

After a positive 3-1 start to the week, I am looking to really nail down some positive selections to build on the early momentum to take into the Madrid Masters event which is being played over a ten day period. The run to the French Open really picks up steam in May and I am looking for some momentum behind the Tennis Picks to take into the second Grand Slam of the season.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Holger Rune: A home favourite will return to the court after reaching the Monte Carlo Masters Semi Final and I do think Alexander Zverev should be heading towards the French Open with a maiden Grand Slam in mind. Rafael Nadal is going to be returning from an injury next week in Madrid, while Novak Djokovic has looked pretty vulnerable having played little competitive tennis in 2022 and Alexander Zverev has long been one of the stronger players on the clay courts.

He is making his first appearance here in Munich this year and that could leave Alexander Zverev potentially vulnerable to an upset.

Going up against Holger Rune will be a challenge with the young Dane long been producing strong numbers on the clay courts and having won a match in Munich. The big test for Holger Rune is going to be transfer his form on the clay courts from the Challenger Tour to the main ATP Tour and that has been something that he has yet to do with any real consistency.

Over the last twelve months, Holger Rune has a 6-9 record in main ATP events on this surface, while he has won just 58% of points played behind serve.

It is something that Alexander Zverev will look to exploit and he has broken in 38% of his return games played on the clay in 2022. A look at a bigger sample over the last twelve months shows the German has been able to produce solid return numbers and he has managed to win 43% of return points played which has led to breaks in 35% of return games played.

I do think Holger Rune will have some success attacking the Alexander Zverev serve, but there looks to be a significant edge in favour of the top Seed in this tournament. The bigger first serve may see Alexander Zverev get out of a couple more jams and I think he performed well enough in Monte Carlo to believe he will be able to put Rune under immense pressure.

The last couple of appearances in Munich have ended disappointingly for Alexander Zverev who has suffered Quarter Final losses each time, but he is a former Champion here. Despite those relatively early losses, Zverev has won his Second Round match with some comfort and I think he is going to be eventually break down the Holger Rune game on his way to another last eight appearance in Munich.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 2.96 Units (8 Units Staked, + 37% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 25th)

A busy weekend means the opening Tennis Picks from the tournaments to be played this week in Estoril and Munich are not going to have a full write up.

Later this week the Madrid Masters will begin and there is a suggestion the ATP and WTA Tours are going to come together and make a decision to not count any Ranking points from Wimbledon in light of the move the third Grand Slam of the season has made in relation to Belarusian and Russian players. While I don't think it will impact the arrival of players at an event that will offer significant prize money, it will still be a noted move by the Tours.

We will see how that shakes up later this week when the next really big clay court tournament begins. The ATP part of the Madrid Masters will begin early next week, but the main draw of the WTA side of the tournament should get underway on Thursday.

I should have a much fuller thread for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday.

MY PICKS: Soonwoo Kwon - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2014 (May 3rd)

The draw for the Madrid Masters was made on Friday and it has given us a number of top matches from the very beginning of the draw to look forward to next week, especially on the ATP side of the draw.

Before that, we have to see the tournaments this week concluded as the Semi Finals in the ATP events are scheduled to be played on Saturday and the Final of the main WTA event in Oeiras is also to be completed on this day before most head over to the Spanish capital.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: It has been an important week for both of these players, but I consider Tommy Haas the more likely to find his way through to the Final in Munich.

Martin Klizan has come through the qualifiers before the main draw run to the Semi Final, but that is a lot of tennis in his legs this week and he will be put under pressure by Haas as long as the latter is serving well.

I do respect the way Klizan can play at times, but I also have seen him lose his patience and his composure on the court and that is where Haas' quality will certainly shine. As well as Klizan has done to get to the Semi Final, Haas should prove a little too tough in a two set win where a break more should get the match done.


Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: When I saw Jan-Lennard Struff play in Marseille earlier this season, I didn't think it would be long until he makes the main Tour as a regular player.

He has reached another Semi Final this week after coming through the qualifiers, but now he faces one of the more solid clay court players who is clearly feeling better on the court.

Fabio Fognini wasn't winning a game last time he was on the court and had to retire against Santiago Giraldo in Barcelona, but he seems to be over whatever issue he was having. He has looked very good all week and I think he has the defensive skills to frustrate Struff and force the mistakes that leads to a 64, 63 win.

The Italian can be an extremely frustrating player to watch, especially when he decides to play a little too flashy for the occasion, but he is also producing a lot of wins on the clay courts and I like him to do that here.

MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, - 0.11 Units (21 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (May 2nd)

We have reached the Quarter Finals in the tournaments on the ATP side of the Tour and the Semi Finals in the WTA event in Oeiras as another week of the clay court season draws to a close.

May should be a fascinating month with the three big tournaments that are scheduled for the next few weeks, especially knowing all the big names will be back in action with motivation at a high.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: I was interested to see how Tommy Haas reacted to his time away from the court, especially with rumours about a shoulder issue, but he looked good in his comeback match.

Haas beat Alejandro Falla fairly comfortably, but I expect it will be that much tougher against Andreas Seppi who came through his Second Round match far easier than I thought he would. That might have been down to Albert Ramos heading to Madrid earlier for the qualifiers, but it was still a good, solid win for Seppi.

The Italian has a serve that can be vulnerable and Haas is going to have the home support to perhaps get on the front foot in this match.

It will be interesting to see if Haas can produce top tennis in back to back days after his lay off, but he should be good enough in a normal situation and come through 64, 64.


Daniel Gimeno-Traver v Marcel Granollers: I have backed Daniel Gimeno-Traver twice already this week and I think he can be backed, for a small interest, to beat his compatriot Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Portugal.

I believe Gimeno-Traver is the better clay court player of the two and Marcel Granollers had been on a poor run of form which won't have done his confidence a lot of good, although he did have an important win in the Second Round against Albert Montanes.

However, you can't ignore the recent poor form of Granollers and the run of wins that Gimeno-Traver has had to get to this Quarter Final and a small interest in him winning another has to be the call.


Victor Hanescu v Gastao Elias: A home tournament means Gastao Elias has the chance to really pick up some big Ranking points and he has done well to move through to the Quarter Final, but now faces an opponent that is very happy on the clay courts.

With a serve like Hanescu has, I would have expected it to translate onto the faster courts, but it seems he likes getting his feet under him when it comes to groundstroke battles and that comes on the slower clay courts.

Elias mainly plays on the Challenger circuit and Hanescu has been a regular winner at that level on the clay courts and I can see his serve causing enough problems to pressure the home player.

If Hanescu is serving well, Elias may push too much on his own serve with the pressure of trying to keep up on the scoreboard and I like the Romanian to eventually come through.

MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Victor Hanescu @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.1 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (May 1st)

The tournaments in Munich and Oeiras are both continuing this week and we have already seen a fair share of surprise results in both the men's and women's events that are taking place.

As I have said a couple of times already this week, players are perhaps already looking ahead to the Masters/Premier Event being held in Madrid next week and a number of those in the draws will be heading across for qualifiers.


Albert Ramos v Andreas Seppi: One of the players that could potentially have to go through the qualifiers in Madrid is Albert Ramos, but I still believe he is going to prove to be a little too good for Andreas Seppi in this Second Round match in Munich.

The clay courts are the favoured surface for Ramos and he has given Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov tough matches on the surface over the last couple of weeks and he won't be intimidated by what Seppi brings to the court.

It has been a poor eighteen months for Seppi who is slipping in the Rankings and he hasn't had much respite on the clay courts in that time either. This season has seen the Italian lose some matches that he shouldn't have and Ramos is good enough to take advantage, even if he has to wait until the match goes the distance before he gets through.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: He is currently Ranked as the World Number 44, but this period of the season could see Federico Delbonis break into the World Top 32 if he can continue the form he has shown on the red dirt.

By far and away the clay courts are the favoured surface for Delbonis, but he is now at a much higher level than twelve months ago which means all the points he accumulates should push him up the Rankings. I expect he is going to get the better of Thomaz Bellucci for the fourth straight time in the professional ranks, despite a good solid four wins in a row to reach the Second Round for the Brazilian.

Bellucci is another who prefers the clay courts, although injury has curtailed a career that looked like he could translate his game onto the hard courts too.

However, it has been a stop-start year for Bellucci and he may be wondering about Madrid and qualifying for that Masters event which could derail his chances of winning this match and I like the Argentinian to win this South American derby 76, 64.


Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Andrey Golubev recorded a win in the First Round, but he has not had the most success on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last few years and I think Leonardo Mayer will have too much knowledge of the surface in the Second Round.

I do think there is more in the Golubev locker as he has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but the consistency can be tough for him and that is really highlighted on the clay courts where you have to show the patience to win matches.

Leonardo Mayer snapped a run of six straight losses by winning four matches here and he should have the momentum to move into the Quarter Final, although the spectre of the Madrid Masters is a concern.

The first set will likely be tight, but Mayer should be able to come through with a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.06 Units (10 Units Staked, + 10.6% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (April 29th)

This has usually been the time of the season where Rafael Nadal racks up the points that helps him sit high in the World Rankings, but there have been a couple of upsets before the big month of May.

With two Masters in Madrid and Rome, and also the Grand Slam event at Roland Garros, Nadal's position as a strong favourite must have loosened with his defeats over the last couple of weeks. The defeat to David Ferrer was disappointing, but you could chalk that up to a bad day in the office, but then being defeated by Nicolas Almagro in Barcelona was a huge shock.

Nadal may have reached the Final in Miami and won a tournament during the South American Golden Swing in February, but I don't think it is too far fetched to think he hasn't been the same since his back injury cost him the Australian Open Final.

Of course it is too early to consider Nadal anything but the favourite to win the next three clay court tournaments, but the draw is going to be that much more important as he may be vulnerable to a surprise result.


If that is the case, who is the most likely player to take advantage of that and win the next Grand Slam tournament? In past years, Novak Djokovic looked the most likely and perhaps should have won the event last season, but his wrist injury has to be a concern for his backers.

Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka are likely next in the market leaders and both Swiss players will feel they can perhaps add to their own Grand Slam successes after contesting the Final in Monte Carlo. Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray both are vulnerable on the clay courts, while David Ferrer has to grind through too many matches to think he could beat two or three of the big names to win his maiden Grand Slam title.


The one thing the Nadal losses have done is make the French Open as intriguing as it has been for a number of years in terms of contenders for the title there.


There are a couple of tournaments being played this week but there was too much uncertainty for me to make outright picks when I am not comfortable that every player has the right motivation. In Portugal, the top two seeds, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic, should go close, but both have lost silly matches on the clay courts and I couldn't trust either.

In Munich, Tommy Haas was one of the leading contenders, but there are doubts about his right shoulder, while other players might be focusing on having to play the qualifiers for the Masters tournament in Madrid next week.

Let's face facts- the next month is the important time for most of the top players on the Tour with the two Masters events back to back and then a short rest before the French Open begins. Therefore, this week may see some more strange results as has been the case during the clay court season to this point.


Feliciano Lopez v Jan-Lennard Struff: Feliciano Lopez has not had the best start to his clay court season with a retirement and an early surprising loss to his name and he could have his hands full against Jan-Lennard Struff who had to come through qualifiers.

That should give Struff confidence in front of a crowd that will offer him plenty of support, but he hasn't really progresses on the Tour as he may have expected, although he certainly has the tools to win as the underdog in this First Round match.

However, I believe Lopez can put some pressure on the German if he is serving well and he does seem to use the scoreboard to build the pressure to the point that Struff could end up snapping.

The concern comes from the recent Lopez form and the retirement, but I think he is being given a generous price to win this one.


Thomaz Bellucci v Ivan Dodig: Another qualifier in Munich will play his First Round match on Tuesday, but this time I am backing Thomaz Bellucci to find a win against Ivan Dodig.

The clay courts are definitely favoured more by Bellucci than the are by Dodig whose serve and attacking the net game are better suited to the faster surfaces.

It has been a fall from the upper reaches of the men's game for Bellucci who has suffered from a loss of form and injuries, but coming through three qualifiers should inspire him to look for more from the tournament.

Bellucci is expected to be in the qualifiers for the Madrid Masters next week which is a distraction, but he has the better clay court pedigree of these two players and I expect he can find a win in the match, even if it takes three sets.


Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 games v Alejandro Gonzalez: Daniel Gimeno-Traver is at his most comfortable on the clay courts, but he is not normally a player that I would like backing as his serve can be a real weakness. I especially don't like backing him as a favourite because of that initial issue, but he has won three qualifiers here and I expect that to give the Spaniard the confidence to beat Alejandro Gonzalez.

Gonzalez hasn't played since Houston and he hasn't really been able to take the form he has shown in the level below the main ATP Tour into tournaments like this.

However, he will also have some confidence in facing a player like Gimeno-Traver who is at the level that Gonzalez would see more often. The problem is that I still think there is too much experience and clay court nous and that will help Gimeno-Traver come through with a 75, 64 win.


Santiago Giraldo v Albert Montanes: I will never forget the way Santiago Giraldo announced himself at the main Tour level with a crushing of Juan Carlos Ferrero a few years ago, but he has never really hit those heights since.

However, Giraldo may point to a couple of strong tournaments over the last three weeks to show the confidence he is in and I like his chances to beat Albert Montanes as long as last week in Barcelona hasn't taken too much out of the Colombian.

Giraldo reached the Final last week before finding Kei Nishikori far too strong, but Montanes is not as good as the Japanese star and I expect it could be a tough day for him. Montanes has had a few surprising results, but the veteran is wearing down and he has struggled against Giraldo.

They have met five times previously and it is the Colombian who has won four times, including twice earlier this season. That includes a win on the clay courts and I am surprised he has been picked as the underdog in this one unless Barcelona has taken its toll. Still, I have to back him at odds against to beat the veteran and move through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Picks Final: 4-4, + 0.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Season 2014: + 36.11 Units (561 Units Staked, + 6.44% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 29th)

I have made a couple of outright picks from the ATP tournaments in Portugal and Germany this week which can be found here


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: I think it would be very foolish to rule out Varvara Lepchenko on the clay courts considering she has beaten the likes of Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci on this surface this season. However, I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova is still more happy on the slower terrain and I do believe she can come through this tough First Round match.

My one real concern is that Kuznetsova hasn't played any tennis since Miami last month, although she has a real chance of being one of the seeds at the French Open with a couple of big runs in the next two weeks and that should be big enough motivation to see her through this match.

The left-handed Lepchenko could also cause some early problems and the Russian has also been complaining about the wind in Portugal. As long as these issues don't cause too many mental breakdowns, I think Kuznetsova comes through the match.


Daniel Brands - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: The battle of two home town players should be a decent one, but I would expect Daniel Brands to be a little too strong for Tobias Kamke.

Brands has the bigger serve and any time you can get a few cheaper points on serve can only be a benefit, while Kamke can be very erratic at times and go through phases in a match where he makes a number of unforced errors.

It is those unforced errors that will give Brands a chance on his opponent's serve and while both players have enjoyed some success on the clay courts off the Main Tour, it is Brands that seems to have been able to transfer that form to the highest level of competition.

I'd expect Brands to find a way to grab a break advantage in both sets here.


MY PICKS: Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniel Brands - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 29-May 5)

We are now less than a month away from the French Open so this week is the last one where the main players on both Tours decide to take off. After this, both Tours head to Madrid and Rome for the big tournaments at Masters and Premier level and then there will be just the eight days until the French Open will begin.

This week we have a joint tournament taking place in Portugal and another ATP event in Munich.

ATP Portugal Open

The Number 1 seed in at this tournament is David Ferrer and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 4 in the field that has come together for the Portugal Open this season. He was surprisingly beaten in his first match at the Barcelona Open last week against Dmitry Tursunov, but David Ferrer is certainly very capable of running some form together as proven by his title win in Buenos Aires earlier this season.

The draw seems to be kind to Ferrer here as he receives a bye in the First Round thanks to being one of the top four seeds here in Portugal and I don't think he will be too worried by any of the names in the top half.

The biggest danger may just be Tommy Robredo in the top half of the draw, but Ferrer has been too good for his veteran compatriot over the last twelve months and I would back the World Number 4 to be too battle hardened and consistent for Robredo.

I am not surprised that Stanislas Wawrinka is considered the second favourite, but Ferrer has a solid head to head record against him and I would back the Spaniard in that one. Other names in the bottom half like Fabio Fognini and Horacio Zeballos have had success on the clay courts, but neither would feel they have a favourable match up with Ferrer the Number 1 seed has to be the pick at odds against in this field.


ATP Munich
One of the more open tournaments in recent times takes place in Munich and it says a lot that the field is priced at 5.50 or better. There are plenty of big names in the draw and I have a feeling that backing a home favourite to come through the draw may pay dividends this week.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this event twice already in his career, including last season, and he has reached at least the Quarter Final in five of his last six appearances here. The German is in the better half of the draw here and receives a bye in the First Round which may give him enough of an edge to come through the top half.

His main rivals are Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic, but there are some doubts about the chances of both of those players and Kohlschreiber looks the most likely to take advantage of those doubts.


The bottom half of the draw looks a lot more loaded with the likes of Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic all involved in the section. Cilic has enjoyed a lot of success in the tournament without quite winning it, but this is a really tough half of the draw and I think taking Kohlschreiber each way is the best way to be involved in this tournament.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)


Daily Picks: 10-5, + 8.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 29.21% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 41.28 Units (517 Units Staked, + 7.98% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Champions League Final 2012

The Champions League Final is in Munich this year and at least one of these teams has to be considered a real surprise Finalist. When the draw for the Quarter Finals were made, I think the majority of people out there would have thought this was going to be a Final between the two Spanish giants of Real Madrid and Barcelona, but both were ousted by Bayern Munich and Chelsea at the Semi Final stage.

I think the two teams need to be given absolute credit for reaching this stage and it is no surprise that Bayern Munich are considered the favourites with the Final taking place in their home stadium, but the last team given this right was Roma back in 1984 and they failed to win that Final against another English side, Liverpool.

Below you will find my keys to the game and what I believe will be the decisive factor when it is all said and done. I will also post a link to my preview of the game and my pick from the Final.

Keys to the Final

Can Chelsea defend as they did in the Semi Final: Chelsea were rightly given a lot of praise for their win over Barcelona in the Semi Finals, but I think they were given a little too much for their defensive performance as they did afford the Catalan club a number of chances to score in both legs, although the second half performance in the second leg with ten men was more than admirable.

Defending Bayern Munich in that manner may lead to more problems for Chelsea as they will be dealing with front man in Mario Gomez that Barcelona do not have. Gomez is very much a striker that will look to get on the end of chances and also gives Bayern a 'Plan B' as he is very good in the air and that is an element that Barcelona do not have.

That also meant that Chelsea could defend much narrower in the Semi Final with the confidence that Barcelona would not launch balls into the box and, even if they did, that they could defend anything that came in there. But Chelsea are missing some big defenders and that leads me to the second key for the game.

How will Chelsea cope in the absence of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic: Both teams are misisng some players through suspension, but these two could be the absolute key for the London club as that means the likes of Gary Cahill and David Luiz are likely to make up the back four, two players that have not played much football recently through injury.

Without the calming influence Terry provides (at least when he is not kneeing opponents in the backside), it is going to be a tougher day in the office for the defence, while David Luiz in particular  has to show the discipline he did in the latter half of the season rather than what he was showing earlier in the campaign.

With the Bayern Munich wingers, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, being their main dangers, that is where the absence of Branislav Ivanovic could be huge as Paulo Ferriera or Jose Bosingwa, his most likely replacements, are a huge drop off in terms of defending class compared with the Serbian.

An unfamiliar back four is not the ideal way any team would want to start a Champions League Final.

The Midfield Battle: This is another area where Chelsea will be missing some key personnel like Ramires and Raul Meireles, but this is also a position where Bayern Munich will be missing Luis Gustavo who did a lot of good work in the Semi Final against Real Madrid.

The problem for Chelsea is they are missing two of their more dynamic central midfield players and they could find it hard to keep tabs on the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos when Bayern are on the attack.

Midfield is always an important part of any football game and it does seem that the German side have the edge in that department. Chelsea will need Frank Lampard, who will be Captain for the day, at his very best, but I do worry about the impact Jon Mikel Obi can have in a game of this magnitude.

Problems earlier in the season for Chelsea can from a tired looking midfield and that is something I worry about them here. I don't think they have the legs required there to keep the roaming Bayern players at bay.

However, the Bavarians will be missing Gustavo and he is the main player that looks to break the play for them. This will give Chelsea the chance to spring some counter attacks and try and expose a Munich defence that isn't the best.

Chelsea have to be quick on the counter and take any half chances coming their way: Much as they did against Barcelona, Chelsea need to make maximum use of the counter attack, and they have to take any chances that land to them.

Let's face facts- they literally had about 4 chances against Barcelona in the Semi Final and were very efficient by taking 3 of them, but they will need that type of production if they are going to win this Final.

I expect they will look to contain Bayern for large parts of this game, so they have to make full use of the speed they are likely to employ in wide positions and hope Didier Drogba is in the same mood he was for the Barcelona games in what could be his final appearance for the Blues.

The Bayern Munich defence is definitely the weakest aspect of their team and, like Chelsea, they are missing a couple of key players in Holger Badstuber and David Alaba. This is an area that Chelsea will be able to exploit as long as they are efficient and making the right decisions when they do have the ball going forward.

Dealing with the expectation: This is a big emotional factor in the game- all season, Bayern Munich have spoken about getting to the Final that will be held in their own Stadium and now that they are here, the question has to be asked as to how she deals with the expectations of their supporters and upper levels of management.

Bayern are the favourites almost every where you look and that is a big expectation to deal with for the players as they enter the biggest match of their careers (for a lot of them at least).

How they deal with it is a tough question to answer- I can tell you after I watch the game, but there is no real telling before kick off.but this will be a big key in the contest.

I will be expecting Bayern to make a fast start and try and ease their own nerves, but nerves do lead to mistakes and they have to be careful not to overplay the game in their minds.

Luck: Sometimes all you need is luck (I think that's what the Beatles were singing about)... Chelsea have had their fair share of luck already in this tournament, but they could win the trophy if they haven't used it all up.

Chelsea were fortunate in games against Napoli and even Barcelona to a certain extent, but that doesn't mean it is due to run out. I remember Manchester United's run to the 1999 Champions League trophy and we had our fair share of luck in wins over Inter Milan, Juventus and then against Bayern Munich in the Final when we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals down.

Is it their destiny to win the Champions League? I guess we will find out on Saturday.

Predicted Teams

Bayern Munich: Neuer, Contento, Lahm, Boateng, Tymoschchuk, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Pranjic, Robben, Ribery and Gomez (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Cole, Cahill, Luiz, Mikel, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Kalou and Drogba (4-3-3)

Preview

You can find my full preview of this game and why I am picking what I am here (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14299-Bayern-Munich-v-Chelsea.htm)


MY PICK: Bayern Munich @ 1.80 Coral (3 Units)