Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 1st)

A difficult start on Saturday was replaced with three consecutive winners for the Tennis Picks and it has kept the week totals ticking along nicely.

The WTA event will have reached the Third Round in Madrid by the time the Sunday action is concluded, but the ATP First Round begins on the same day, while the tournaments in Estoril and Munich conclude with both Finals set to be played.

I will update the season totals in the Tuesday Tennis Picks thread, but for now you can read my selections from the Sunday schedule below.

Marta Kostyuk v Emma Raducanu: Two very young players are meeting on the clay courts in the WTA Madrid Second Round and I have little doubt that Marta Kostyuk and Emma Raducanu know all about the other. It is Marta Kostyuk who is the slightly older of the two and she has been a pro for longer, but Emma Raducanu has raised her own stock ever since winning the US Open.

A first competitive season playing on the clay is something of a learning experience for Raducanu, but she was a solid enough winner in the First Round. It is the second time she has beaten Tereza Martincova on the clay courts, while Emma Raducanu is feeling pretty comfortable on the surface, despite the heavy loss to Marketa Vondrousova in the Billy Jean King Cup.

The numbers back that up, but this is a match against a pretty strong clay courter in Marta Kostyuk who reached the French Open Fourth Round last year. We haven't seen a lot of Kostyuk on the clay courts in 2022 as she continues to worry about the situation in Ukraine, her home, but she was a strong winner over Clara Tauson in the First Round.

In her early career, Marta Kostyuk has shown a liking to playing on the clay courts and I do think that experience could stand her in good stead against her British opponent.

Over the last twelve months, Marta Kostyuk has shown she has a pretty effective serve on this surface and she has been able to back that up with strong returning displays. We don't have a very big sample of numbers from Emma Raducanu, but it does feel like her second serve is pretty attackable on the clay and that is where Kostyuk could come out on top in this match.

Both players will feel they can have success when they are returning, but I do have a touch more faith in the Marta Kostyuk serve in what is a pick 'em match set by the layers.

These two did meet on a hard court at the back end of 2021 and it was Marta Kostyuk who crushed Emma Raducanu for the loss of three games. The British player did struggle with the weight of expectation following the US Open success, but Emma Raducanu saw her serve attacked over and over again and I think Marta Kostyuk will be the player moving through to the Third Round thanks to her superior clay court successes.

MY PICKS: Marta Kostyuk @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6 Units (24 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Madrid Update: 6-2, + 6.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.38% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Dereck Chisora vs Joseph Parker (May 1st)

The rumours are that Eddie Hearn is going to be moving his Matchroom stable away from Sky Sports who have helped him develop into the premier Boxing promoter in the United Kingdom and then expanded across to the United States.

Reports say that both Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte will be still pushed on the Sky PPV platform, but the rest of the roster will be only seen on DAZN so I am expecting an increased price soon enough.

With the partnership coming to an end, the suggestions are this May card has been put together to satisfy the remaining clauses in the contract and that meant producing another PPV worthy card for Sky.

Some may disagree, but this is a card that is ridiculous to have to pay extra to watch.

If this was a normal Saturday night card with the subscription fees already paid you would say it is a decent offering, but there is hardly anything of note on the show as far as I am concerned and especially not at the stages of the careers of the headline acts or the match making on the undercard that has been put together that suggests it is worthy of the PPV tag.

And judging by some of the 'drama' of Friday I think the sales are probably not doing anything near where the promoters or broadcasters were expecting.

Dereck Chisora vs Joseph Parker

This is a real crossroads fight for two Heavyweights who have failed to crack through to the elite level in the Division.

That is probably a harsher view on Joseph Parker who has been a World Champion and has a win over Andy Ruiz Jr on his resume, but losses to Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte have knocked his standing. He was actually pretty close to beating Whyte and an early head-butt which was counted as a Knock Down proved pivotal in his defeat on the cards.

Joseph Parker has rebuilt with four straight wins and has been calling for a rematch with Whyte, but an awful performance in his win over Junior Fa a couple of months ago has left a bad taste in the mouth. It was a horrible fight and Fa was pretty happy playing spoiler and getting to the cards, but Parker did not do nearly enough and has decided to change his trainer.

Andy Lee was the recommendation of Tyson Fury and Joseph Parker may have been learning to sit down on his shots a little more than he has been used to. For many years people have asked for Parker to be more ruthless if he wants to really move up the World Rankings, although you do wonder how much could he have learned in two months under the tutelage of Lee.

One element that will help Parker is the style of Dereck Chisora who will come forward all night and look to throw big shots and rough up the New Zealander.

The last time we saw Chisora he was having a better than expected performance in his defeat to Oleksandr Usyk, although the Ukrainian did rock him hard in the second half of the fight and Chisora looked to be running on fumes in the final three Rounds. That will have taken something out of the tank of the 37 year old, but Chisora knows only one way to approach a fight and it could see him open for something big.

Dereck Chisora is likely going to use the same blueprint that Dillian Whyte did in his win over Parker and I expect some rough moments for the former World Champion. However I expect Chisora to slow down after the first few Rounds and Parker showed in that defeat to Whyte that he does carry power through the latter Rounds and I think he could put something big on Dereck Chisora once he slows down.

Most will look for Joseph Parker to get this done on the cards, but I think he has the chance of stepping forward in the mould that Andy Lee will want and really put it on a slowing Dereck Chisora as we tick into the second half. The last two times that Chisora has been stopped has come in the second half of a fight and there are some nervy rumours running about his preparation for this one.

I expect Chisora to put it all on the line early, but that may see him ripe for the stoppage late.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs Chris Arreola

Two Heavyweights of Mexican heritage meet in the main event of a big card in the United States this evening and the reality is that feels like nothing more than a showcase event for Andy Ruiz Jr.

The former World Champion took plenty of criticism for turning up out of shape for his rematch with Anthony Joshua and he was comfortably out-pointed over the distance and dropped his belts.

That was in December 2019 and Andy Ruiz Jr has been out of the ring ever since, but he looks to have made some key changes outside of the ring and the desire to the return to the top of the mountain is evident. Joining Eddy Reynoso and working alongside Canelo has to be the inspiration for Ruiz Jr and if things don't fall into place now they never will.

His opponent Chris Arreola never earned the World Titles, but he has reached a pretty good level in his career although at 40 years old you do have to wonder if there is anything left in the tank. He has come in at a career lowest weight, and I do think the desire is there, but Arreola has spent even longer out of the ring than Andy Ruiz Jr and he has tended to be found out at the highest level.

I don't think it will be hard to find Chris Arreola and that does play against him with the faster, more accurate Andy Ruiz Jr likely to have some big opportunities.

After an early tussle, I think Ruiz Jr will start breaking down Arreola and the key for the former World Champion is going to try and show off his return by getting rid of this opponent quicker than Deontay Wilder, a potential opponent for later this year.

I think he may just do that with Arreola fading, but backing Ruiz Jr to win this fight in the mid-Rounds is the way to go for me.

Bermane Stiverne beat Chris Arreola in Six and Wilder did it in Eight and I expect Ruiz Jr to finish the job around the same time after a firefight.

MY PICKS: Joseph Parker to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Andry Ruiz Jr to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

James Tennyson to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dmitry Bivol to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Chris Eubank Jr to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Katie Taylor to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Erislandy Lara to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Sebastian Fundora to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 30-May 3)

I can't believe I did not get around to posting my Wild Card team last week on Twitter, but in hindsight it probably wasn't a bad thing with some poor decisions coming back to haunt me.

I will have more thoughts on the Fantasy Football game below following my thoughts on the weekend Premier League games to come.

Southampton v Leicester City Pick: It has been nine days since Southampton have last played while Leicester City have played twice in that time and I think that is the only reason I can really provide for thinking that the home team may secure a positive result when these teams meet in the Premier League.

As well as Southampton played earlier this season, in recent months they have struggled in the Premier League for the kind of consistency that would be required.

Leicester City have momentum behind them with 3 straight wins in all competitions at a time when Southampton have lost 3 in a row. They have also gotten the mental advantage of beating Southampton twice in all competitions already this season including the narrow victory over them at Wembley Stadium in the FA Cup Semi Final.

It was a tight win and Southampton showed enough to prove they can be a dangerous team, but defensively there are issues that have not been resolved. Ultimately they give up too many chances and a team in Leicester City's form should be able to take advantage of that.

I would be stunned if we get anything near a 0-9 result that was the outcome of the corresponding fixture last season, but I am not exactly going out on a limb in saying that. Southampton's style should be one that still appeals to Leicester City though as they are unlikely to sit in and that opens them up to the counter attack and the pace Leicester City have.

The Foxes have won 3 in a row at St Mary's and I do think they are capable of adding to that run while taking another giant step towards the Champions League. It will be far from easy, but a narrow away win looks the most likely outcome of this fixture as Leicester City put the pressure on their top four rivals playing later this weekend.

Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: The big question this weekend is what kind of team will be selected by Pep Guardiola with the main focus being the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg which is going to be played on Tuesday.

A 10 point lead in the Premier League certainly makes the decision process easier for the manager of Manchester City and I do think some of the key names will be left out to rest and get ready for another tough game against Paris Saint-Germain.

However, this is a deep squad and I do think even a changed Manchester City team can continue getting the better of Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. The home team will have their own motivation questioned, even if they played well at the King Power Stadium on Monday night, while Crystal Palace continue to look vulnerable defensively.

Chelsea exposed that to devastating effect in the 1-4 win here last month, but this one should be more competitive considering the likely changes in the away line up.

Even then, Manchester City should be able to keep the momentum going having won 3 in a row in all competitions and their last 10 away Premier League games. They have scored for fun in those away games, but Manchester City have also been secure defensively which has seen 7 of those 10 victories come by two or more goals.

I would certainly keep an eye out on team news if you are backing Manchester City to win this game on Saturday, but I am taking that into consideration. They have won their last 2 games here by a couple of goal margins and with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus in attacking areas, I think they are likely to have the attacking players to keep that trend going through another season.

Crystal Palace did play well in the first half at Leicester City, but they can't seem to keep the back door shut with the amount of defensive injuries being dealt with. That is a major concern when playing Manchester City and the visitors can win and potentially be crowned Champions later this weekend.

Brighton v Leeds United Pick: Two teams that play eye pleasing football meet at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, but I can't help think Brighton look vulnerable as the favourite.

There is no denying the football that Graham Potter's men have been playing and the amount of chances they create, but Brighton continue to show a lack of composure in the final third. It was evident in the defeat to Sheffield United last weekend and Brighton can't afford to be as wasteful against a team like Leeds United.

It might not be as easy for them to create chances in this game either with Leeds United showing a little more resilience of late than they have for much of the season. Marcelo Bielsa is clearly tactically astute enough to know his team needed tightening up, but Leeds United have lost none of their attacking thrust and back to back away wins will give them confidence.

Leeds United do have a terrible record at Brighton which is hard to ignore, but a single goal could be enough to avoid a defeat here. Raphinha's continued absence is a big blow for Leeds United, but they still have enough in the final third to think they can score against Brighton, despite the two home clean sheets The Seagulls have produced in succession.

At some point you do wonder if things will click for Brighton as it did in their 3-0 home win over Newcastle United, but they have won 1 of their last 5 at the Amex Stadium. It is more than being unlucky at this point of the season and Graham Potter will likely be looking to bolster his front line in the summer, but for now Brighton may just struggle to earn more than a point from this fixture.

Chelsea v Fulham Pick: The Chelsea performances under Thomas Tuchel have been more functional than spectacular, but they are picking up result after result and a big season could be in the offing.

The Premier League title race was run by the time Tuchel took over as manager, but he has taken Chelsea to the FA Cup Final and they are favourites to reach the Champions League Final too. The Second Leg of the Champions League Semi Final is to be played during the week and it could be a big distraction, but Chelsea can't fully focus on that at the detriment of their League form.

Unlike Manchester City, Chelsea do not have a considerable advantage when it comes to finishing in the top four of the Premier League. They have recently dropped some silly points at Stamford Bridge which has kept West Ham United and Liverpool interested in breaking into the top four, but Tuchel will not want to offer more encouragement this weekend.

Fulham have proven to be a difficult team to break down away from home, but they have to take more chances now. Scott Parker's team need to win four of their last five Premier League games to have any chance of avoiding relegation and taking risks could leave them exposed to the pace and power Chelsea have in the final third.

It won't be easy and especially if Chelsea were to make some changes to the starting eleven, but this is a team that has been well organised under Thomas Tuchel. They have also been capable of creating chances and even with the changes I expect they will have too much for their West London rivals as they maintain their spot in the top four.

Everton v Aston Villa Pick: There is plenty of strong history behind Aston Villa and Everton and both clubs are chasing a return to being amongst the elite of English Football.

Everton feel much further along than Aston Villa and they have shown a touch more consistency than their visitors, although the most telling factor about these clubs is that they are consistently inconsistent.

The Toffees have been in poor form at home for months, but the 0-1 win at Arsenal should give Everton a real spark. At the same time Aston Villa have just lost their momentum and only a late goal prevented them from being beaten by West Brom last weekend as the clean sheets have dried up.

Losing Jack Grealish has been a big blow for Aston Villa and a healthier looking Everton may just edge to the points here.

It should be competitive and the first goal is going to be huge, but Everton have their best players available for the most part and that should help them. Nothing will come easy, but Everton can earn a vital three points to keep their European ambitions on track through another weekend.

Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: Both of these teams are close to being involved in dead rubbers in the Premier League with Newcastle United pulling clear of the relegation zone and Arsenal in mid-table and unlikely to be involved in Europe next season without winning the Europa League.

That latter competition is the focus for all associated with Arsenal and the Semi Final Second Leg is going to be played next Thursday with the tie against Villarreal finely balanced. Mikel Arteta can't afford to risk key players in what is ultimately a meaningless Premier League game to the club and it is no surprise that the Arsenal price has been drifting to odds against.

Their own motivation can be questioned, but add the factor of the recent upturn in form produced by Newcastle United and an upset can't be ruled out. Steve Bruce has had a difficult season as manager of the club, but key injuries have been clearing up in attacking areas and that has helped Newcastle United earn 8 points from a possible 12 to pull clear of Fulham in the relegation zone.

There are now 9 points between them and Newcastle United are unbeaten in 5 at St James' Park. One concern is the amount of goals they have been conceding, but Newcastle United have been scoring plenty of goals over the last month and they can earn a positive result against an Arsenal team that may not be fully focused on Sunday afternoon.

Arsenal do have a very good recent record at St James' Park which has to be respected, but Newcastle United can pick something up here. They have created enough chances over the last month to believe they will have the goals to at least produce another point and the spot looks a bad one for Arsenal who have a Europa League Semi Final to overturn during the week.

Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: This game may mean more to Liverpool on the pitch than it does for Manchester United, but the historical rivalry between the clubs means there are plenty of bragging rights up for grabs.

Liverpool may have won the Premier League title last season, but Manchester United could push them out of the Champions League reckoning this time around if they can win this game.

The backdrop will be the protests organised by Manchester United fans which will take place on the forecourt of Old Trafford and it may just have the players feeling the atmosphere of the day that may produce a better game in front of the empty stands than some of these Big Six fixtures have produced so far this season.

Manchester United earned a tough 3-2 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup back in January and I do think the 6-2 win over Roma on Thursday means a strong team can be selected for this one. They will have the attacking pace to really hurt a makeshift Liverpool defence that has continued to look vulnerable in each passing week and Manchester United have scored at least twice in 4 straight at Old Trafford.

However, Liverpool have been creating chances and only poor finishing has been letting them down. They will approach this fixture with an attacking intent in this one as Liverpool chase the win they desperately need, but that may mean this is an open fixture in which chances are created at both ends of the field.

3 of the last 4 between Manchester United and Liverpool at Old Trafford have finished up with less than three goals shared out. However, I think the situation for both teams likely leads to a more open game and one that is closer to the 3-2 FA Cup win for United than the tight affairs we have seen in recent seasons.

This looks like a game that could become very open if there is an early goal and three or more goals may be provided on the day.

Unbelievably Manchester United are the home underdog, but that has more to do with the situation for Liverpool who 'need' the points more than United do.

I think that will tempt enough in to back the home team who have won 5 in a row at Old Trafford, but any win will likely come in a high-scoring game.

Tottenham Hotspur v Sheffield United Pick: Ryan Mason would have heard the criticisms of his team over the last week after a meek surrender to Manchester City in the League Cup Final, but he can still help Tottenham Hotspur produce a strong end to the campaign.

Finishing outside of European competition would be a huge blow for Tottenham Hotspur and would put the pressure on the club to keep some of their big name players. Harry Kane is already wondering whether it is time to search for a new club where he may win trophies and play consistent Champions League Football, while others in the squad need to be shifted too.

It is a difficult time for any new manager taking over at Tottenham Hotspur, but they can get back on track in the Premier League with a win over Sheffield United.

This looks the perfect opponent for Spurs to face considering how badly Sheffield United have travelled for much of the season. The Blades have lost 7 away games in a row in all competitions and they do offer up some big chances to teams they face.

Last weekend it was only poor finishing from Brighton which allowed Sheffield United to get away with a win, but they have to expect better from Tottenham Hotspur. And for all the negatives around Spurs, they have won 6 of their last 7 games here in all competitions and have the players who can put Sheffield United to the sword.

Defensively Tottenham Hotspur are hard to trust, but they should have enough to keep Sheffield United at arm's length and that should be enough for a relatively comfortable home win on the night.

West Brom v Wolves Pick: This may not be one for the neutrals, but the local bragging rights between clubs separated by eleven miles should provide plenty of motivation for West Brom and Wolves.

Over the last month there have been some positive moments from both teams, but it looks to have come too late for West Brom who are almost certainly going to be relegated.

Sam Allardyce will be looking for his team to fight as far as they can though and a win for West Brom will keep them alive for another week as they look for a third win in 5 Premier League games since the March international break. They have been scoring goals for fun in those games, but West Brom continue to look vulnerable at the back.

The attacking side of their game will be encouraging against this Wolves team who just conceded four times to Burnley at Molineux. They have shown a big more solidness in recent weeks, but Wolves don't really control the chances and West Brom may be able to hurt them.

However I would also think West Brom's defence will be tested by Wolves who have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games. They don't create nearly as much as The Baggies have been, but Wolves should be able to have some success here and another high-scoring game could develop.

The last 4 between these clubs at The Hawthorns have finished with fewer than three goals shared out, but there were five goals when these teams met at Molineux. An early goal should get things going and West Brom have to take risks as they look to claw back towards 17th place in the Premier League table and that may leave spaces for the visitors in what could be a decent game all things considered.

Burnley v West Ham United Pick: The recent upturn in form produced by Burnley was finally rewarded with a victory over Wolves last week and the team continue to create chances in their fixtures. It has been important because they have not looked as secure defensively and they are certainly going to be tested by a West Ham United team that are looking to get closer to the top four in the Premier League.

Both teams will be looking to play on the front foot on Monday and that should mean this is a decent watch for those tuning on.

The two teams have been scoring goals frequently, but neither has looked secure at the back and that should mean there are opportunities in the final third for both. An early goal would spark the entire contest, even in the sanitised setting of playing behind closed doors, and there are attacking players on form that can play their part in this fixture.

Burnley would likely accept a point a little more readily than West Ham United, but the latter's need may see the game remain fairly open throughout the ninety minutes.

Goals have been hard to come by at Turf Moor, but the last 5 Premier League games that Burnley have been involved in have seen at least three goals shared out. Before the defeat to Chelsea, West Ham United had been involved in 4 high-scoring League games in a row and I think there will be at least three goals produced in this one too.

MY PICKS: Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap

Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Brom-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals

Burnley-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 34

I had plans last Friday which meant I was not able to put up my Wild Card team that was created for the final weeks of the season.

The three Leicester City players and Mohamed Salah were the only good though and the 57 points overall was far below what I would have wanted.

I also made sure I left enough money in the bank to make sure I can upgrade Diogo Jota to Heung-Min Son this week and I will then be hoping to avoid having to make any transfers in GW35, which has become the confirmed double we anticipated.

It also means Man United, Leicester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are going to be blanking in GW36, but I have been prepared for that to be the outcome and that meant I have only picked five players from across those two teams.

However, Everton, Aston Villa, Southampton and Crystal Palace are all going to have doubles in GW35 and will also be playing in GW36 so it will be no surprise that I have five players from across those teams involved in my Wild Card too.

The only reason I want to bring in Son for Jota is the fixtures being played this week and I do wonder if that is overthinking things- Spurs have a tougher game at Leeds United than Liverpool have hosting Southampton in GW35, but I also think Jota's position is a little more unsure than Son's.

I think there is every chance I will bring Diogo Jota back in GW36 when some of the midfielders I have will be blanking, but that is a thought for another day.

And one more thing, I really hate the Friday deadline!

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (May 1-3)

The Champions League and Europa League Finals will be set by the end of this week as we enter the final month of the 2017/18 season in the big European Leagues.

Most of the ties look to be balanced going into the Second Legs to be played this week, but I think the teams in the better positions are all eventually going to find their way through to the Final. I do think there may be a couple of twists and turns first though.

On Friday we will move onto another weekend in the Premier League so there will be a thread for those Weekend Picks by Friday afternoon, but the games are running down now.


Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Pick: After losing 1-2 in the Quarter Final in the home Leg thirteen months ago, I didn't hold out a lot of hope for Bayern Munich to turn things around against Real Madrid. They actually managed to force extra time in that tie before being undone thanks to a late Arturo Vidal sending off and the players have to head to the Spanish capital with some belief they can turn this one around.

Injuries are really affecting the Bayern Munich squad which is a major concern for them, but there is still plenty of quality in the starting line up and I can't imagine they finish with as little composure as they did last week in Munich.

I also can't put my finger on this Real Madrid team despite winning the last two Champions League titles. On some days they have looked very good, but on others they have flattered to deceive although the bottom line is they continue to do just enough to make it through the Rounds.

The lead from the First Leg does make Real Madrid strong favourites to make it through to the Final, but I do think Bayern Munich are going to play a big part here and certainly won't roll over for the home team.

Picking a winner isn't straight forward simply because I do think Bayern Munich can replicate the performance from last season when they won 1-2 here in the Second Leg of their Quarter Final despite losing 1-2 at home in the First Leg.

The layers are anticipating goals with the over 2.5 goals option very short and that is no surprise when you think the last 3 and 8 of the last 9 have seen three or more goals shared out by these teams.

I do think we can get one more goal if the Real Madrid and Bayern Munich strikers are showing composure in front of goal that they do usually produce. It is a big Semi Final though which adds to the pressure when the chances come up, while the teams may not take too many chances if we get to 1-2 for the fourth consecutive time these teams have played.

In most other situations you have to think one of the teams are taking chances which could leave spaces ready to be exploited. I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least three goals on Tuesday, but it may be worth the play to look for one more at odds against.


Roma v Liverpool Pick: There were some unsavoury scenes ahead of the Liverpool-Roma Semi Final First Leg which has taken away some of the satisfaction Liverpool would have had from their performance on the field.

A dominant 5-2 win in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg should be good enough for Liverpool to make it through to their first Final in the competition since 2007.

Some doubt will have been raised by the two late goals conceded by the English side, while the news that Zeljko Buvac has left the club for a short period is another blow to Liverpool. I don't anticipate it being a big enough issue for Liverpool to find themselves in the same predicament as Barcelona did in the Champions League Quarter Final because the situation feels much more comfortable for Liverpool.

Roma played really well in Barcelona despite the 4-1 loss and that gave them a confidence to take into their Second Leg, but this time they are perhaps feeling fortunate to have any chance in this Semi Final Second Leg. The defending was frankly awful at Anfield and a team chasing goals are likely to leave some spaces for the speedy Liverpool attack to exploit.

I simply can't see Liverpool failing to score in Rome and I think that would be a huge body blow for Roma to try and recover from. As well as they have played at home in the Champions League throughout this season, keeping Liverpool from scoring here is arguably the biggest challenge the home team would have faced.

It would be a surprise if Roma don't at least take more care defensively in this one, but at some point there will be spaces for Liverpool to exploit and that makes this a difficult game to read.

Riding out the early storm is going to be key for Liverpool but even if they do fall behind in the opening ten minutes they showed at Manchester City in the Quarter Final that they will get their opportunities anyway. Roma showed enough going forward to think they will create chances too, but barring a complete turnaround in their defensive schemes I don't see the clean sheet which has been key to their run to the Semi Final.

After seven goals were shared out at Anfield, there could be a few more scored on Wednesday and I will back four or more to be the final tally.


Atletico Madrid v Arsenal Pick: The late Antoine Griezmann goal in the Emirates Stadium has put Atletico Madrid in pole position to make it through to the Europa League Semi Final.

Arsenal will be kicking themselves for not taking advantage of their visitors being reduced to ten men for 80 plus minutes of the First Leg and now they have to find a way to breach this Atletico Madrid at least once to give themselves a chance of moving through to the Final.

That is a big challenge against a team who have kept 11 clean sheets in a row in all competitions and I imagine Diego Simeone will be making sure Atletico Madrid are hard to beat in this one. Having the prospect of being able to go through with a goalless draw means Atletico Madrid are unlikely to take too many risks in this one and instead focus on making sure they don't allow Arsenal a way back into the tie.

The Gunners haven't found scoring goals a big problem, but rarely would have come up against a unit as well organised as Atletico Madrid. And I am not sure Arsene Wenger will be too disappointed if his side are still goalless with 20 minutes left of this tie with a single goal being enough to really turn the tie in Arsenal's favour.

I can imagine a tight Second Leg developing with Atletico Madrid making sure they don't leave too many gaps behind them. They are the more likely winners with Arsenal likely to make a mistake at the back which has been a feature of their season, but backing one of these teams, at least, to fail to score looks an intriguing price.

Atletico Madrid's home record is very impressive in terms of clean sheets and I don't think they will take too many risks to allow Arsenal to erase the away goal Atletico picked up in North London last week.

Chelsea did score twice here in the Champions League Group Stage, but the previous 3 English visitors had not scored against Atletico Madrid. This Arsenal team doesn't look as strong as previous English teams to play in this part of Madrid and I will look for Atletico Madrid to produce a tight Second Leg which sees goals at a premium.


Salzburg v Marseille Pick: Most fans will consider the winner of this Europa League Semi Final to be considerable underdogs in the Final regardless of whether they face Atletico Madrid or Arsenal.

Neither Marseille or Salzburg will be a part of that majority though and it is the French side who have the advantage thanks to a 2-0 win at home last week.

However it has to be said that Marseille have not been as strong when you take them away from their home Stadium and the lack of strong results on their travels in the Europa League is a slight concern. Salzburg have shown they can score goals and win games at home and they overturned a 4-2 deficit to Lazio in the Quarter Final by beating them 4-1 at home and that after going 0-1 down in the Second Leg.

Salzburg showed in Marseille that they have some quality football up to the final third, but they were perhaps not creating as many chances as they would have liked. Even then they had opportunities to score a priceless away goal and so they will feel they can put Marseille under some pressure in the Second Leg.

The overall away form of Marseille has perhaps not been the best, but they seem to have rounded into some form of late and will believe they can play a part here. They should find spaces on the counter attack much like Lazio did before Salzburg overwhelmed them and the Second Leg could be an entertaining game of football.

Both teams should have their moments, but picking a winner isn't easy with the situation meaning Salzburg could potentially blow a winning position if they are chasing the fixture. Instead I will look for the two teams to combine for one goal more than last week when the chances did come for both Marseille and Salzburg.

It could also be a game in which Salzburg come close to turning the tie around completely, but I will look for three or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid-Bayern Munich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid-Arsenal Both Teams NOT To Score @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (April 29-May 1)

Every round of domestic football fixtures in April and May are going to have some major implications at the top and bottom of any Division and that is no different in the Premier League this weekend.

The race for the top four and the Premier League title could have a big couple of days, while there is beginning to be some issues determined with teams potentially being relegated this weekend depending on the results we see.

That means pressurised situations which can see players respond both positively and negatively and that itself can see some strange results produced. It is a really fun part of the season as the determination of whether this is going to be seen as a season of success or failure is going to be produced by the results over the next month.


Southampton v Hull City Pick: The games are beginning to run out and Hull City remain just outside the bottom three- make no mistake about it, Marco Silva would bite your hand off if you offered him a 17th place finish and would have done as soon as he took charge of The Tigers.

At some point Hull City will have to produce a big performance away from home to ease their worries, but they have handle the pressure at the KCOM Stadium to remain outside of the bottom three.

This week may not be the week for a positive away result for Hull City as they have continued to defend poorly on their travels and conceding at least two goals in 9 of 10 away games in all competitions is not very good. Facing a Southampton team with pace in the final third and a proven goalscorer in Manolo Gabbiadini is not really where Hull City would want to be.

Southampton will look to get forward at home and they do create chances, while they have beaten Hull City 4 times in a row at home. As well as Marco Silva has performed as manager of Hull City, he has yet to find the right balance away from home and I think this is a game that Southampton can win.

I imagine Hull City will cause some problems too for a Southampton defence that has struggled, but they concede too many and I am going to take The Saints on the Asian Handicap to move past them by at least a couple of goals.


Stoke City v West Ham United Pick: At this time of any League season, there will be games that are beginning to lose a lot of meaning outside of the financial success a club can achieve. The players aren't always that concerned about the difference between finishing 11th and 12th though and that can see some unmotivated performances being produced.

However both Mark Hughes and Slaven Bilic will believe a strong end to the season over their last four or five League games could see Stoke City and West Ham United challenge to finish in the top half. That is an achievement that can't be ignored and might release any pressure that the two managers could be feeling in their job.

For Hughes it looks less critical, but Bilic is trying to show the West Ham United board he is the man to take them forward. However the players haven't always responded to his tactics and that has been a big reason West Ham United have been so inconsistent this season.

They have had some real up and down performances on their travels and Stoke City have remained solid enough at the Bet365 Stadium to think they can edge this match. It won't be easy but Stoke City have the players in the final third to expose West Ham United's defensive issues, while the absence of Andy Carroll takes away a big goal threat from the visitors.

I imagine this will be a tight match at times with chances at both ends, but being able to back Stoke City at odds against looks a big price and one worth taking.


Sunderland v Bournemouth Pick: I really don't know what kind of atmosphere the Sunderland players can expect at the Stadium of Light on Saturday with relegation almost certainly confirmed after a 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough on Wednesday. Losing to their local rivals to be put on the brink of relegation is one thing, but the lack of real fight offered by the players will have hurt the fans.

Realistically I can see this fixture being played in front of a sparse crowd and that won't really help Sunderland who need to win their remaining five Premier League games and hope for help if they are going to create a miracle escape. Unlike previous seasons, the current manager David Moyes hasn't exactly inspired with his leadership and this is a much more difficult home game than it may initially seem.

Usually you would circle this kind of fixture as a 'must win' for a team in dire straits as Sunderland, but Bournemouth are going to challenge them fully with their ability to play strong football on the ground. This is a team who have shown they can score goals at tough grounds in recent weeks and Bournemouth have two strikers in Benik Afobe and Josh King who are helping create chances and finish them off.

I would be surprised if Bournemouth don't score here and the problems Sunderland have had in front of goal makes it easy to see why the away side are the favourite. They are a pretty big price because Bournemouth have not had a lot of success away from home in the Premier League this season but I did back West Ham United to win here recently and was only undone by a late Sunderland equaliser.

That's the only game in the last 10 in which Sunderland have scored and while Bournemouth will give you chances, I am not sure the home team have enough in the final third to really trust.

At the prices Bournemouth are a tempting price here and I am going to back them to come away with the three points after winning for the first time in Sunderland against a home team who may be feeling a little sorry for themselves.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: There were some criticisms for the fixture organisers from Sam Allardyce this past week, but his Crystal Palace side have played twice in the time since Burnley last took to the field and I wonder if that is going to play a part in this one.

Allardyce and Sean Dyche have both got a few injury issues to deal with ahead of this fixture and this could be a decent game between Crystal Palace and Burnley as both try to earn the three points that can keep them in the Premier League for another season.

I still think both will ultimately be safe, but Crystal Palace have a bit more momentum behind them and can make home advantage tell in this fixture.

Most will know all about the poor Burnley away record in the Premier League and losing the likes of Ben Mee and Stephen Ward would be a blow for them. They also have just hit a poor patch of form in recent weeks with 1 win from their last 12 in all competitions and I am not sure Burnley can do enough to prevent Crystal Palace taking advantage of them as they did against Hull City, Sunderland and Middlesbrough.

Crystal Palace have shown more quality in the final third and Allardyce should set his team up to avoid giving too much away from set pieces. They will look to take advantage of any issues Burnley have without the influential Mee at the heart of the defence and I think the home team can win this by a narrow margin.

It will be tough for both teams and at times the quality might not be there, but eventually I am looking for Crystal Palace to do enough to win the game.


Manchester United v Swansea City Pick: Jose Mourinho has stated for a number of weeks that he will continue to play his strongest team in both the Premier League and Europa League to make sure Manchester United have two shots to make the Champions League next season. Improved results in the Premier League coupled with slips from teams above them has meant Manchester United are having to keep fighting on two fronts and they have a chance to end Sunday in the top four.

All of that depends on whether Manchester United can find a way to turn draws into wins at Old Trafford and they will have to expect that Swansea City will come to defend in numbers and make life difficult for the home team.

Every point Swansea City earn at this point of the season could be vital for their chances to avoid relegation, but you can't ignore their 6 game losing run away from home in the Premier League. This is a team that doesn't do clean sheets which should give Manchester United opportunities to score goals, although it all depends on how clinical Manchester United feel on the day.

The likes of Jesse Lingard and Luke Shaw can come into freshen the starting eleven ahead of the Europa League Semi Final with Celta Vigo, while Paul Pogba will need to pass a fitness test. Marouane Fellaini's suspension shouldn't be a big issue here as it will see Manchester United play an attacking line up at Old Trafford and I do think they will be too good for Swansea City on the day.

Defensively Manchester United have been strong and they do create chances at home with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Anthony Martial, Jesse Lingard and Marcus Rashford more than capable of providing a goalscoring threat. Wayne Rooney will likely be used in some capacity too and I think Manchester United will win this game and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.

When Manchester United have won their home games, they have tended to come by a comfortable margin so I will look for them to secure a three points that will move them into 3rd for at least a couple of hours and into 4th for at least twenty-four hours.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: This is the second live Premier League game on Sunday and this might be the last chance for Chelsea to really slip up in the Premier League title race and give the television networks something to promote.

They might have the best away record in the Premier League this season with 11 wins behind them, but Chelsea have won just 4 of their last 8 on their travels in the League. In that time they have lost at Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United while failing to win at Liverpool and Burnley and now they face an Everton team who have played with a lot of confidence when they have been at home.

Everton have won 8 in a row at Goodison Park in the Premier League and have scored at least twice in each of those wins. They are up against a Chelsea defence that has been conceding more goals than they did in the middle of the season and who haven't had a clean sheet in the Premier League since the end of January, a run of 11 League games in a row.

Romelu Lukaku is going to want to show off his goalscoring record against his former club and potential future employer and Ronald Koeman's Southampton had a decent record against Chelsea. With the goals Everton can score, I expect they will pose problems, although one word of caution has to be their 8 game home winning run in the League has seen them face only one team from above them in the League table.

Everton have beaten Arsenal and Manchester City here and drawn with Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, while Liverpool needed an injury time goal to win here. That will give them confidence against a Chelsea team that have a 1-1-3 record away from home against the teams directly below them.

I do think Chelsea will score goals here though and they have scored in 13 of 16 away games this season even if those exceptions have come at top six teams. Everton have conceded in their last couple of games here and have some defensive issues which should be exploited by Chelsea, and 3 of the last 4 League games here between these teams have ended with at least three goals shared out.

The home team have nothing to lose and Chelsea will be looking for a big three points which should mean an entertaining Sunday afternoon game and I think backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.


Middlesbrough v Manchester City Pick: This Premier League fixture was pushed back twenty-four hours after the Manchester derby was rescheduled for Thursday night and it is a big one for both Middlesbrough and Manchester City.

Middlesbrough gave themselves a chance of surviving with a 1-0 win over Sunderland on Wednesday, although it was a tense game where neither team played with a lot of confidence. They are going to need to be a lot better to challenge Manchester City who have been able to play much more effectively away from home where they can expose more spaces that the home teams have to leave behind.

That could be an issue for Middlesbrough this weekend with a point not really doing a lot for them, and they have begun to look weaker defensively as they have tried to be more proactive going forward. Against a team like Manchester City, ineffective balance could be a real problem and I am expecting a similar result and performance from both teams that was seen in the FA Cup Quarter Final.

That game was won 0-2 by Manchester City who scored at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half to take control of the match. Manchester City have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games and I do think Middlesbrough have just had a few issues against the top teams in the Division.

Only Everton from the top seven have failed to win here and all the others except Chelsea have scored more than once. I would expect Manchester City to have Gabriel Jesus playing more minutes here and they have the attacking players who can be very good away from home where their hosts have to play with a little more attacking intent.

With Middlesbrough chasing the three points that are so important to their survival bid, I am expecting Manchester City to pick them off and come away with a win by at least two goals. 8 of their 11 away Premier League wins this season have come by a least two goals including each of the last 5 away League wins Manchester City have secured and I am going to back them to do that here this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: The North London derby has some major implications for both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal with one chasing the Premier League title and the other a top four place where they look like they are going to fall short.

For the majority of the Arsene Wenger years at Arsenal, they would have been the one in the title race while Tottenham Hotspur would be chasing the top four, but things have changed this season.

The three points are so important for both at the time I am writing this, but they could be even more important depending how results have gone earlier in the day when the likes of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea all play. Both North London clubs will be hoping those three teams have dropped points in their earlier League games, but regardless there is going to be plenty on the line in the North London derby.

I have to give the edge to Tottenham Hotspur in the fixture with their 15 straight wins at White Hart Lane in all competitions and 8 straight Premier League wins overall behind them. Even though Arsenal won at Middlesbrough last time out, they were not that impressive and had lost 4 straight away League games at Chelsea, Liverpool, West Brom and Crystal Palace while conceding three times in each game.

Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur both laboured to wins on Wednesday, but the home advantage is likely to be vital in this one. Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 of the last 5 League games between these North London rivals at White Hart Lane and goals generally flow when these teams meet.

Tottenham Hotspur have scored plenty of goals at home and Arsenal have been conceding goals for fun on their travels and their recent away games have tended to feature goals. There is every chance there are three or more goals in this one and the feeling is Tottenham Hotspur will earn the win.

Putting those options together produces a big price and I am going to back that to be the outcome from this Premier League live game on Sunday afternoon.


Watford v Liverpool Pick: The result last Sunday has just helped the Liverpool rivals for a top four spot and has heaped some real pressure on Jurgen Klopp and his players on Monday night. The defeat to Crystal Palace coupled with a win for Manchester United has closed the gap between those rivals to just 3 points, but Manchester United will have played twice by the time this one kicks off.

That could mean Liverpool are kicking off outside of the top four and mentally that could be a huge blow for a club who are desperate to return to the Champions League.

This does look a fixture from which they can bounce back from the surprise defeat to Crystal Palace, but underestimating Watford at Vicarage Road would be a big mistake. The Hornets have won 3 Premier League games in a row here and have performed better on their home patch for the majority of the season while also trying to earn revenge for an embarrassing 6-1 loss at Anfield.

Watford may have lost to Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur here, but they have beaten Manchester United and Everton so they will believe they can pose problems for Liverpool. Their visitors have also been a little inconsistent when facing those teams in the bottom half of the table and have lost at Bournemouth, Leicester City and Hull City this season while failing to win at Sunderland.

That makes picking a winner tougher, but backing at least three goals could be the way to go. All of Watford's home games against the top seven this season have ended with at least three goals shared out, while Liverpool have visited 9 of the teams currently in the bottom half of the Premier League table and 7 of those finished with at least three goals.

Both teams have every chance of scoring in this one and I think there will be plenty of chances created which should see goals in this Monday night football encounter. The more likely winner is clearly Liverpool, but I hope Watford can cause a surprise or two themselves although the overriding feeling is that this game will produce at least three goals and I will back that to occur.

MY PICKS: Southampton - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.15 William Hill (2 Units)
Bournemouth @ 2.40 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Coral (2 Units)
Watford-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)

April Update: 36-29-1, + 13.20 Units (131 Units Staked, + 10.08% Yield)

March Final: 39-40-3, + 6.64 Units (157 Units Staked, + 4.23% Yield)
February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (May 1st)

The tournaments in Munich and Oeiras are both continuing this week and we have already seen a fair share of surprise results in both the men's and women's events that are taking place.

As I have said a couple of times already this week, players are perhaps already looking ahead to the Masters/Premier Event being held in Madrid next week and a number of those in the draws will be heading across for qualifiers.


Albert Ramos v Andreas Seppi: One of the players that could potentially have to go through the qualifiers in Madrid is Albert Ramos, but I still believe he is going to prove to be a little too good for Andreas Seppi in this Second Round match in Munich.

The clay courts are the favoured surface for Ramos and he has given Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov tough matches on the surface over the last couple of weeks and he won't be intimidated by what Seppi brings to the court.

It has been a poor eighteen months for Seppi who is slipping in the Rankings and he hasn't had much respite on the clay courts in that time either. This season has seen the Italian lose some matches that he shouldn't have and Ramos is good enough to take advantage, even if he has to wait until the match goes the distance before he gets through.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: He is currently Ranked as the World Number 44, but this period of the season could see Federico Delbonis break into the World Top 32 if he can continue the form he has shown on the red dirt.

By far and away the clay courts are the favoured surface for Delbonis, but he is now at a much higher level than twelve months ago which means all the points he accumulates should push him up the Rankings. I expect he is going to get the better of Thomaz Bellucci for the fourth straight time in the professional ranks, despite a good solid four wins in a row to reach the Second Round for the Brazilian.

Bellucci is another who prefers the clay courts, although injury has curtailed a career that looked like he could translate his game onto the hard courts too.

However, it has been a stop-start year for Bellucci and he may be wondering about Madrid and qualifying for that Masters event which could derail his chances of winning this match and I like the Argentinian to win this South American derby 76, 64.


Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Andrey Golubev recorded a win in the First Round, but he has not had the most success on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last few years and I think Leonardo Mayer will have too much knowledge of the surface in the Second Round.

I do think there is more in the Golubev locker as he has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but the consistency can be tough for him and that is really highlighted on the clay courts where you have to show the patience to win matches.

Leonardo Mayer snapped a run of six straight losses by winning four matches here and he should have the momentum to move into the Quarter Final, although the spectre of the Madrid Masters is a concern.

The first set will likely be tight, but Mayer should be able to come through with a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.06 Units (10 Units Staked, + 10.6% Yield)