Boxing Picks 2022- Oscar Valdez vs Shakur Stevenson (April 30th)

The big night at Wembley Stadium ended in the manner most expected, but I was a little gutted that it did not last about twenty more seconds to get us into the second half of the fight.

Tyson Fury was in complete control and the stoppage was a good one from the referee with Dillian Whyte all but out, and the WBC Heavyweight Champion has underlined his place as the best big man in Boxing.

Talk about retirement is not one I am willing to entertain too long- right now I do think Tyson Fury feels he is done, but the winner of the Oleksandr Usyk-Anthony Joshua rematch will surely get the juices flowing again.

In saying that, I next expect to see Tyson Fury at the WWE PPV event being put together for Cardiff in September and it perhaps will be the start of any promotion towards Unifying the Heavyweight Championship for the first time in a generation.

The big fights keep rolling around and this weekend is no different even if it is caught between the Tyson Fury and Canelo Alvarez events- there are two big fights on the same night, but thankfully the promoters have banged their heads together to make sure the main events are not heading to the ring at the same time.

I don't really want to get into the 'which fight is bigger' debate that the promoters seemed to have gotten involved in for the two cards headlining Saturday 30th April, but instead hope that everyone enjoys the events being put on.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano

There are a couple of very big fights being put together in Women's Boxing this year and this is the first of those as two headline the magical Madison Square Garden for the first time.

Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano are amongst the very top names in Women's Boxing and this is a fight that is two years in the making.

I have not doubt to the scale of the event, but I still think there are a couple of factors at play that would only improve the appreciation of the Women's side of the sport that have to be considered in the years ahead.

Firstly the Championship Bouts have to be fought over Twelve Rounds like the Men- in the world of MMA, the two codes are both fought under the same conditions and it will only improve the spectacle and the drama.

Adding to that, I do think Women's Boxing promoters have to push for the three minute Rounds- at the moment the Championship Bouts are essentially losing sixteen minutes to the Men and that takes away so much of what makes the sport appealing. Fans want to see Knock Outs, but under current stipulations it is very hard to do that for anyone not named Savannah Marshall and I do think it is a completely different challenge to prepare for the full thirty-six minute Championship bouts compared to the twenty minutes that the Women are asked to do.

In saying that, I am not at all surprised that Katie Taylor has pushed back against those suggestions.

At 35 years old, Katie Taylor is clearly in the backend of her career and I wouldn't be surprised if Amanda Serrano is the last opponent she ever faces (a rematch is a possibility of course). In recent fights, Taylor has looked shattered by the midway mark of some of her bouts and clearly slowed down at that point, so I am not at all surprised that she would not want the full three minute Rounds and the Twelve Round Championship distance to be put in front of her.

Someone like Amanda Serrano would have benefited from the extra time to try and break down Katie Taylor, but over the shorter distance there are more questions.

If this was over the same time limit as Men's Boxing, I would favour Amanda Serrano to find the stoppage around the Ninth or Tenth Round, but the shorter time does not offer much support to those looking to Knock Out opponents. I do think she will still land some big shots on Katie Taylor who can be dragged into a fight and who lost, in my opinion, when she fought Delfine Persoon in her last fight in The Garden.

My expectation in this one is that Katie Taylor will start fast, let her hands go in the combinations and try and get out of the way. I would be surprised if she is not winning after Five Rounds are completed.

However, I think Amanda Serrano will be able to land enough big shots to slow down the Irishwoman and do think she will be getting the better of the big exchanges in the second half. Katie Taylor has shown one or two signs that she is ready to go in some of her recent fights and Amanda Serrano is arguably the hardest puncher she has ever faced so there could be some rough moments to ride out.

Amanda Serrano is also a pretty good technical boxer so I expect her to be in a position to hurt Taylor and it may all come down to whether she has the time to put a finishing touch on this one before we get to the cards.

IF we get to the cards, who is ruling out a Split Decision which opens the door for the rematch? I think with Katie Taylor likely to make the faster start and Amanda Serrano coming down the stretch, it will be a close fight on the cards and you couldn't even rule out the Draw being an outcome.

Katie Taylor beat Delfine Persoon by Majority Decision here, but that was also almost three years ago and she has definitely lost a step or two since then.

I don't have a massive lean in this one, but I am sure the promoters would love to see this one happening again.

My lean is that either Amanda Serrano will find a stoppage late, which will be disputed by Katie Taylor's team, or this is going to be a close fight that could see either win by a Split Decision. That will give them a chance to do it all over again in the fall before Katie Taylor calls time on her career and a small interest in those two angles is the play.

The card at Madison Square Garden is a pretty good one this week and there are a couple of bouts that should have a chance of stealing the show.

First up is the fight between Liam Smith and Jessie Vargas, which has been touted for some time.

Both of these boxers have been in with some of the biggest names out there, but both have come up short when moving into elite level. Liam Smith is the more natural at the Light-Middleweight limit and I think that will make a difference for him, while another factor is the recent inactivity of Vargas.

Jessie Vargas has also spoken of his desire to move into politics and that has to be a concern for his fans about how much he really wants to prolong his boxing career. With Liam Smith there is no doubt after a strong win over rival Anthony Fowler and the naturally bigger man may feel he has enough to hurt Jessie Vargas down the stretch and find a stoppage in the Championship Rounds.

You have to respect the fact that Jessie Vargas has never been stopped before- however, he has been down in half of his last six fights in lower weight Divisions and Liam Smith is perhaps an underrated puncher having won seventeen of his thirty victories inside the distance.

The over two year layoff will also test Jessie Vargas down the stretch and I think Liam Smith will power through him late to just offer himself one more big opportunity in the very tough 154 pound Division.

Another couple of undercard bouts that will be of interest involve Galal Yafai and Austin Williams.

I expect Yafai to get his professional career off to a 2-0 start and he can produce another early finish.

Austin Williams is fighting an unbeaten opponent who has had seven more fights than he has, but I expect him to get the better of a fellow southpaw. Chordale Booker has a solid record that has to be respected too, but he has not faced someone of the quality of Williams and I think he can get this one done inside the distance.

Oscar Valdez vs Shakur Stevenson

The consensus top two in the 130 pound Division meet in a Unification bout on Saturday and this is a top contest between unbeaten Oscar Valdez and unbeaten Shakur Stevenson.

Both have enjoyed some big wins over the last eighteen months to move into this Unification, although the feeling is that Shakur Stevenson will be moving up to 135 following this one. He did need to strip down to make the limit in the weigh in, but Shakur Stevenson feels like the bigger fighter and one who could become a major star in the American market in the years ahead.

The win over Jamal Herring and the manner of it was very impressive, but Shakur Stevenson will know he has to be even better to beat someone like Oscar Valdez.

The latter will likely want to drag Stevenson into a real fight, but I think the game plan for the favourite will be to weather the early storm and showcase his superior boxing talents. Popping Oscar Valdez and making him reset could be the key early, but Shakur Stevenson may begin to set his feet the longer this goes as he looks to make another statement with a stoppage.

Much depends on the approach of Oscar Valdez- some boxers will feel that going the distance is enough when they feel a fight is lost, but my feeling is that Valdez will push forward throughout and that may see him leave himself open to a big counter down the stretch.

It will be a fun fight and Oscar Valdez will be very live, but I am expecting this to become the Shakur Stevenson show in the Championship Rounds and I think he will be looking to push ahead and stop this opponent.

I don't think Oscar Valdez will take a backwards step, which could leave him vulnerable to being put out on his shield and the feeling is that Stevenson is looking to earn the finish inside the distance.

There are a couple of top prospects on the undercard- both Nico Ali Walsh and Keyshawn Davis have made strong starts to their professional careers and both should be able to find stoppages.

However, there isn't much backing that to happen and instead I would say enjoy taking in two young, American stars that will be looking to headline in the years ahead.

MY PICKS: Amanda Serrano to Win Between 6-10 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (0.5 Units)

Katie Taylor to Win by Split Decision @ 11.00 Sky Bet (0.25 Units)

Amanda Serrano to Win by Split Decision @ 13.00 Sky Bet (0.25 Units)

Liam Smith to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Galal Yafai to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Austin Williams to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Shakur Stevenson to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 7-11, + 8.10 Units (34 Units Staked, + 23.82% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 30th)

It has been a quiet week for the Tennis Picks, but Friday was one of the busier days with the WTA Madrid tournament firmly underway.

I really could not have asked for a better day with the Tennis Picks going 7-2, although I did benefit from the inches going my way on the day. A couple of those selections could have easily ended up on the wrong side of the fine margins, although Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's late collapse prevented the day from being even better.

Still, a strong winning day has to be appreciated and it gives me something to build upon as I look for this week to end positively. The Madrid Masters will be played through to next weekend with the ATP event beginning on Monday and there will be some big matches coming up that could have an impact on the way the French Open is played out.

Simona Halep v Paula Badosa: The WTA Madrid tournament is one of the big events left before the French Open gets underway in May and the field that has come together means there are very few easy matches for players.

Even the top names have been given some early challenges and the Second Round match between Simona Halep and Paula Badosa would headline most events.

Injury and a decision to move ahead without a Coach has meant we have not seen much of Simona Halep in recent weeks, but she was a very comfortable winner in the First Round. For a long time Simona Halep has been one of the top players on the clay courts on the WTA Tour, but there look to be other players out there that are more likely to win the French Open.

That feeling will change depending on how Simona Halep is able to perform here in Madrid and in Rome before the second Grand Slam of the season gets underway. It was actually injury that cost Simona Halep a strong clay court season in 2021, but the numbers have remained pretty strong on the surface and I do think Halep is very happy on this surface, even if the conditions in Madrid can be difficult.

A player like Paula Badosa may feel happier with the faster conditions that tend to be the case in Madrid, and she did reach the Semi Final here last season. With Iga Swiatek out of the event, it feels like a very open tournament and a player like Paula Badosa will believe in her ability to take the title on home soil.

Paula Badosa already has one Quarter Final run and one Semi Final run on the clay courts under her belt and she was a dominant First Round winner too. She reached the French Open Quarter Final last year and the World Number 2 is a much improved player on all surfaces.

I expect this to be a close match considering the kind of numbers that both of these players can produce on the clay courts. The Spaniard has the edge on the service numbers, but Simona Halep is a player that can be very strong when it comes to the return and her own serve is one that can be productive enough to earn a win in this big match.

The lack of recent tennis is a concern when backing Simona Halep, but I still think she is amongst the top three clay courters on the WTA Tour. Paula Badosa may soon crack that level herself, but I still think Halep may be the slightly better player on this surface and can make odds against quotes count.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-3, + 6.18 Units (20 Units Staked, + 30.90% Yield)

Madrid Update: 4-1, + 4.92 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.20% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 30-May 3)

I can't believe I did not get around to posting my Wild Card team last week on Twitter, but in hindsight it probably wasn't a bad thing with some poor decisions coming back to haunt me.

I will have more thoughts on the Fantasy Football game below following my thoughts on the weekend Premier League games to come.

Southampton v Leicester City Pick: It has been nine days since Southampton have last played while Leicester City have played twice in that time and I think that is the only reason I can really provide for thinking that the home team may secure a positive result when these teams meet in the Premier League.

As well as Southampton played earlier this season, in recent months they have struggled in the Premier League for the kind of consistency that would be required.

Leicester City have momentum behind them with 3 straight wins in all competitions at a time when Southampton have lost 3 in a row. They have also gotten the mental advantage of beating Southampton twice in all competitions already this season including the narrow victory over them at Wembley Stadium in the FA Cup Semi Final.

It was a tight win and Southampton showed enough to prove they can be a dangerous team, but defensively there are issues that have not been resolved. Ultimately they give up too many chances and a team in Leicester City's form should be able to take advantage of that.

I would be stunned if we get anything near a 0-9 result that was the outcome of the corresponding fixture last season, but I am not exactly going out on a limb in saying that. Southampton's style should be one that still appeals to Leicester City though as they are unlikely to sit in and that opens them up to the counter attack and the pace Leicester City have.

The Foxes have won 3 in a row at St Mary's and I do think they are capable of adding to that run while taking another giant step towards the Champions League. It will be far from easy, but a narrow away win looks the most likely outcome of this fixture as Leicester City put the pressure on their top four rivals playing later this weekend.

Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: The big question this weekend is what kind of team will be selected by Pep Guardiola with the main focus being the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg which is going to be played on Tuesday.

A 10 point lead in the Premier League certainly makes the decision process easier for the manager of Manchester City and I do think some of the key names will be left out to rest and get ready for another tough game against Paris Saint-Germain.

However, this is a deep squad and I do think even a changed Manchester City team can continue getting the better of Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. The home team will have their own motivation questioned, even if they played well at the King Power Stadium on Monday night, while Crystal Palace continue to look vulnerable defensively.

Chelsea exposed that to devastating effect in the 1-4 win here last month, but this one should be more competitive considering the likely changes in the away line up.

Even then, Manchester City should be able to keep the momentum going having won 3 in a row in all competitions and their last 10 away Premier League games. They have scored for fun in those away games, but Manchester City have also been secure defensively which has seen 7 of those 10 victories come by two or more goals.

I would certainly keep an eye out on team news if you are backing Manchester City to win this game on Saturday, but I am taking that into consideration. They have won their last 2 games here by a couple of goal margins and with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus in attacking areas, I think they are likely to have the attacking players to keep that trend going through another season.

Crystal Palace did play well in the first half at Leicester City, but they can't seem to keep the back door shut with the amount of defensive injuries being dealt with. That is a major concern when playing Manchester City and the visitors can win and potentially be crowned Champions later this weekend.

Brighton v Leeds United Pick: Two teams that play eye pleasing football meet at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, but I can't help think Brighton look vulnerable as the favourite.

There is no denying the football that Graham Potter's men have been playing and the amount of chances they create, but Brighton continue to show a lack of composure in the final third. It was evident in the defeat to Sheffield United last weekend and Brighton can't afford to be as wasteful against a team like Leeds United.

It might not be as easy for them to create chances in this game either with Leeds United showing a little more resilience of late than they have for much of the season. Marcelo Bielsa is clearly tactically astute enough to know his team needed tightening up, but Leeds United have lost none of their attacking thrust and back to back away wins will give them confidence.

Leeds United do have a terrible record at Brighton which is hard to ignore, but a single goal could be enough to avoid a defeat here. Raphinha's continued absence is a big blow for Leeds United, but they still have enough in the final third to think they can score against Brighton, despite the two home clean sheets The Seagulls have produced in succession.

At some point you do wonder if things will click for Brighton as it did in their 3-0 home win over Newcastle United, but they have won 1 of their last 5 at the Amex Stadium. It is more than being unlucky at this point of the season and Graham Potter will likely be looking to bolster his front line in the summer, but for now Brighton may just struggle to earn more than a point from this fixture.

Chelsea v Fulham Pick: The Chelsea performances under Thomas Tuchel have been more functional than spectacular, but they are picking up result after result and a big season could be in the offing.

The Premier League title race was run by the time Tuchel took over as manager, but he has taken Chelsea to the FA Cup Final and they are favourites to reach the Champions League Final too. The Second Leg of the Champions League Semi Final is to be played during the week and it could be a big distraction, but Chelsea can't fully focus on that at the detriment of their League form.

Unlike Manchester City, Chelsea do not have a considerable advantage when it comes to finishing in the top four of the Premier League. They have recently dropped some silly points at Stamford Bridge which has kept West Ham United and Liverpool interested in breaking into the top four, but Tuchel will not want to offer more encouragement this weekend.

Fulham have proven to be a difficult team to break down away from home, but they have to take more chances now. Scott Parker's team need to win four of their last five Premier League games to have any chance of avoiding relegation and taking risks could leave them exposed to the pace and power Chelsea have in the final third.

It won't be easy and especially if Chelsea were to make some changes to the starting eleven, but this is a team that has been well organised under Thomas Tuchel. They have also been capable of creating chances and even with the changes I expect they will have too much for their West London rivals as they maintain their spot in the top four.

Everton v Aston Villa Pick: There is plenty of strong history behind Aston Villa and Everton and both clubs are chasing a return to being amongst the elite of English Football.

Everton feel much further along than Aston Villa and they have shown a touch more consistency than their visitors, although the most telling factor about these clubs is that they are consistently inconsistent.

The Toffees have been in poor form at home for months, but the 0-1 win at Arsenal should give Everton a real spark. At the same time Aston Villa have just lost their momentum and only a late goal prevented them from being beaten by West Brom last weekend as the clean sheets have dried up.

Losing Jack Grealish has been a big blow for Aston Villa and a healthier looking Everton may just edge to the points here.

It should be competitive and the first goal is going to be huge, but Everton have their best players available for the most part and that should help them. Nothing will come easy, but Everton can earn a vital three points to keep their European ambitions on track through another weekend.

Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: Both of these teams are close to being involved in dead rubbers in the Premier League with Newcastle United pulling clear of the relegation zone and Arsenal in mid-table and unlikely to be involved in Europe next season without winning the Europa League.

That latter competition is the focus for all associated with Arsenal and the Semi Final Second Leg is going to be played next Thursday with the tie against Villarreal finely balanced. Mikel Arteta can't afford to risk key players in what is ultimately a meaningless Premier League game to the club and it is no surprise that the Arsenal price has been drifting to odds against.

Their own motivation can be questioned, but add the factor of the recent upturn in form produced by Newcastle United and an upset can't be ruled out. Steve Bruce has had a difficult season as manager of the club, but key injuries have been clearing up in attacking areas and that has helped Newcastle United earn 8 points from a possible 12 to pull clear of Fulham in the relegation zone.

There are now 9 points between them and Newcastle United are unbeaten in 5 at St James' Park. One concern is the amount of goals they have been conceding, but Newcastle United have been scoring plenty of goals over the last month and they can earn a positive result against an Arsenal team that may not be fully focused on Sunday afternoon.

Arsenal do have a very good recent record at St James' Park which has to be respected, but Newcastle United can pick something up here. They have created enough chances over the last month to believe they will have the goals to at least produce another point and the spot looks a bad one for Arsenal who have a Europa League Semi Final to overturn during the week.

Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: This game may mean more to Liverpool on the pitch than it does for Manchester United, but the historical rivalry between the clubs means there are plenty of bragging rights up for grabs.

Liverpool may have won the Premier League title last season, but Manchester United could push them out of the Champions League reckoning this time around if they can win this game.

The backdrop will be the protests organised by Manchester United fans which will take place on the forecourt of Old Trafford and it may just have the players feeling the atmosphere of the day that may produce a better game in front of the empty stands than some of these Big Six fixtures have produced so far this season.

Manchester United earned a tough 3-2 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup back in January and I do think the 6-2 win over Roma on Thursday means a strong team can be selected for this one. They will have the attacking pace to really hurt a makeshift Liverpool defence that has continued to look vulnerable in each passing week and Manchester United have scored at least twice in 4 straight at Old Trafford.

However, Liverpool have been creating chances and only poor finishing has been letting them down. They will approach this fixture with an attacking intent in this one as Liverpool chase the win they desperately need, but that may mean this is an open fixture in which chances are created at both ends of the field.

3 of the last 4 between Manchester United and Liverpool at Old Trafford have finished up with less than three goals shared out. However, I think the situation for both teams likely leads to a more open game and one that is closer to the 3-2 FA Cup win for United than the tight affairs we have seen in recent seasons.

This looks like a game that could become very open if there is an early goal and three or more goals may be provided on the day.

Unbelievably Manchester United are the home underdog, but that has more to do with the situation for Liverpool who 'need' the points more than United do.

I think that will tempt enough in to back the home team who have won 5 in a row at Old Trafford, but any win will likely come in a high-scoring game.

Tottenham Hotspur v Sheffield United Pick: Ryan Mason would have heard the criticisms of his team over the last week after a meek surrender to Manchester City in the League Cup Final, but he can still help Tottenham Hotspur produce a strong end to the campaign.

Finishing outside of European competition would be a huge blow for Tottenham Hotspur and would put the pressure on the club to keep some of their big name players. Harry Kane is already wondering whether it is time to search for a new club where he may win trophies and play consistent Champions League Football, while others in the squad need to be shifted too.

It is a difficult time for any new manager taking over at Tottenham Hotspur, but they can get back on track in the Premier League with a win over Sheffield United.

This looks the perfect opponent for Spurs to face considering how badly Sheffield United have travelled for much of the season. The Blades have lost 7 away games in a row in all competitions and they do offer up some big chances to teams they face.

Last weekend it was only poor finishing from Brighton which allowed Sheffield United to get away with a win, but they have to expect better from Tottenham Hotspur. And for all the negatives around Spurs, they have won 6 of their last 7 games here in all competitions and have the players who can put Sheffield United to the sword.

Defensively Tottenham Hotspur are hard to trust, but they should have enough to keep Sheffield United at arm's length and that should be enough for a relatively comfortable home win on the night.

West Brom v Wolves Pick: This may not be one for the neutrals, but the local bragging rights between clubs separated by eleven miles should provide plenty of motivation for West Brom and Wolves.

Over the last month there have been some positive moments from both teams, but it looks to have come too late for West Brom who are almost certainly going to be relegated.

Sam Allardyce will be looking for his team to fight as far as they can though and a win for West Brom will keep them alive for another week as they look for a third win in 5 Premier League games since the March international break. They have been scoring goals for fun in those games, but West Brom continue to look vulnerable at the back.

The attacking side of their game will be encouraging against this Wolves team who just conceded four times to Burnley at Molineux. They have shown a big more solidness in recent weeks, but Wolves don't really control the chances and West Brom may be able to hurt them.

However I would also think West Brom's defence will be tested by Wolves who have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games. They don't create nearly as much as The Baggies have been, but Wolves should be able to have some success here and another high-scoring game could develop.

The last 4 between these clubs at The Hawthorns have finished with fewer than three goals shared out, but there were five goals when these teams met at Molineux. An early goal should get things going and West Brom have to take risks as they look to claw back towards 17th place in the Premier League table and that may leave spaces for the visitors in what could be a decent game all things considered.

Burnley v West Ham United Pick: The recent upturn in form produced by Burnley was finally rewarded with a victory over Wolves last week and the team continue to create chances in their fixtures. It has been important because they have not looked as secure defensively and they are certainly going to be tested by a West Ham United team that are looking to get closer to the top four in the Premier League.

Both teams will be looking to play on the front foot on Monday and that should mean this is a decent watch for those tuning on.

The two teams have been scoring goals frequently, but neither has looked secure at the back and that should mean there are opportunities in the final third for both. An early goal would spark the entire contest, even in the sanitised setting of playing behind closed doors, and there are attacking players on form that can play their part in this fixture.

Burnley would likely accept a point a little more readily than West Ham United, but the latter's need may see the game remain fairly open throughout the ninety minutes.

Goals have been hard to come by at Turf Moor, but the last 5 Premier League games that Burnley have been involved in have seen at least three goals shared out. Before the defeat to Chelsea, West Ham United had been involved in 4 high-scoring League games in a row and I think there will be at least three goals produced in this one too.

MY PICKS: Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap

Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Brom-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals

Burnley-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 34

I had plans last Friday which meant I was not able to put up my Wild Card team that was created for the final weeks of the season.

The three Leicester City players and Mohamed Salah were the only good though and the 57 points overall was far below what I would have wanted.

I also made sure I left enough money in the bank to make sure I can upgrade Diogo Jota to Heung-Min Son this week and I will then be hoping to avoid having to make any transfers in GW35, which has become the confirmed double we anticipated.

It also means Man United, Leicester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are going to be blanking in GW36, but I have been prepared for that to be the outcome and that meant I have only picked five players from across those two teams.

However, Everton, Aston Villa, Southampton and Crystal Palace are all going to have doubles in GW35 and will also be playing in GW36 so it will be no surprise that I have five players from across those teams involved in my Wild Card too.

The only reason I want to bring in Son for Jota is the fixtures being played this week and I do wonder if that is overthinking things- Spurs have a tougher game at Leeds United than Liverpool have hosting Southampton in GW35, but I also think Jota's position is a little more unsure than Son's.

I think there is every chance I will bring Diogo Jota back in GW36 when some of the midfielders I have will be blanking, but that is a thought for another day.

And one more thing, I really hate the Friday deadline!

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (April 30th)

It was a mixed bag of results on Thursday, but so much is down to the awful collapse Elina Svitolina had in her eventual defeat to Jill Belen Teichmann.

After looking in control at 6-2, 2-0, 30/0, Svitolina blew the second set, but worse was to come.

She was then up 5-1 on serve in the final set and missed four Match Points on her way to failing to see out the match and eventually Elina Svitolina was beaten in the Tie-Breaker.

I need that kind of poor luck to be erased, but there really isn't much more I can do than the research and believe that I am making the right selections. You can't get much closer to covering without covering and the feeling is that eventually I am going to hit a really good patch of form.

I am hoping that begins on Friday as the First Round is completed at the WTA Madrid tournament, while the Quarter Final matches in Estoril and Munich are also set to be played. A busy day is in store and I am looking for some successes to lay the foundations for what is hopefully a much better few days leading into early May and the move to the Rome Masters.

Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Irena-Camelia Begu: We haven't really seen Daria Kasatkina kick on in her career in the manner many would have expected of her and the next few weeks are going to be important to earn some solid World Ranking points. At almost 24 years old, I do think Daria Kasatkina should have been much higher than her current Number 37 World Ranking, especially as the Russian cracked the top ten back in October 2018.

This is only the second clay court tournament that Kasatkina is playing in 2021, but she has long been very comfortable on the surface where her return can be a huge weapon for her. The serve is a vulnerable one that can be attacked by opponents, but Daria Kasatkina may not be too worried about this match up with the Qualifier Irena-Camelia Begu.

Winning two matches to earn a spot in the main draw will give Begu some confidence, especially in what has been a mixed season for her as she has fallen down to Number 75 in the World Rankings. Irena-Camelia Begu has long favoured playing on the clay courts which makes her a test, but the head to head with Daria Kasatkina is one that will have the Romanian a little nervy despite the two wins produced in Madrid.

The faster clay court may actually benefit Irena-Camelia Begu too, which is encouraging, but she has lost seven of eight matches against this opponent and that includes six in a row with just a single set won in that stretch. It has been a couple of years since these two met on the red dirt in Rome, but Daria Kasatkina has won the last three matches between them on the clay courts and Begu has not really been able to get into the return games as well as she would have liked.

I have to say that Irena-Camelia Begu is a pretty steady clay court player and any off day from Daria Kasatkina will be punished. However, the level that Kasatkina is able to produce on this surface may be too much for Begu to stick with and in their head to heads that has tended to be the case as I look for the Russian player to come through with a cover of a wide enough spread mark.

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 games v Nina Stojanovic: Qualifiers can be very dangerous in the early Rounds of any tournament they enter the main draw and Nina Stojanovic has to be respected with two wins behind her in Madrid. This is the first clay court tournament she will have played this season, but it has been a good year in general which saw Stojanovic reach a career best World Ranking last month.

The 24 year old was in good form in her two Qualifying wins and that will make Stojanovic dangerous in this First Round match and especially if Anett Kontaveit is not as focused as she should be. That is one of the main complaints about Kontaveit who can blow hot and cold within matches and tournaments, but a good week in Stuttgart has been put in the books and the Estonian is comfortable on the clay courts.

One of the areas that continues to let Kontaveit down is the return of serve and she has to find a way to put more pressure on Nina Stojanovic if she is going to break down her lower Ranked opponent. There were positive signs out of Anett Kontaveit in Stuttgart, but she needs to build on that if she is going to have the kind of clay court campaign she would like to put in the books.

Anything less than a strong returning day will put Anett Kontaveit under pressure and her opponent does have previous having produced a 5-3 career record against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts. The second serve has been a weakness for Stojanovic in those matches though and I think that is where Kontaveit has to make sure she is aggressive, but not wasteful when she sees that serve.

On this surface I do think Anett Kontaveit can find the break points to eventually crack through Nina Stojanovic and it may come with enough time to win and cover. Their sole previous meeting is largely irrelevant as it came back in 2017 when Nina Stojanovic was much younger and inexperienced, but even at this stage of their careers I do think Anett Kontaveit may have a touch too much for Nina Stojanovic.

Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: This has already been a memorable season for Sara Sorribes Tormo who reached a career best Singles World Ranking earlier this week, and it could potentially only get better for the Spaniard. She has long seen the clay courts as her best surface and can pile up the World Ranking points over the next month, although I think Sorribes Tormo will be the first to admit she would prefer a kinder draw than the one she has been given in the First Round in Madrid.

It is a home tournament and that is going to provide plenty of motivation for Sara Sorribes Tormo, but Simona Halep will be heading into the French Open as one of the favourites to win that title again.

A Semi Final run in Stuttgart will have shown that Simona Halep is feeling in pretty good form and she is a former winner in Madrid so the faster conditions at this tournament is not a major concern. In recent years you could argue that Halep has been the most consistent clay courter on the WTA side of the Tour and her numbers have been very impressive, especially on the return of serve.

I think that return of serve is going to be key in this match against an opponent whose returning game is much stronger than her serving one. However, I think it would be wrong to suggest that Simona Halep has as weak a serve as the one Sara Sorribes Tormo will be bringing to the court and that is where the top ten Ranked player will likely dominate the rallies.

If Sorribes Tormo is not able to get enough first serves in play it could be a really tough First Round match for her and she was beaten pretty handily by Simona Halep when these two played on the clay courts last season. That was played at the French Open and Halep created more than double the amount of break points than Sorribes Tormo and I do think she is more likely to be in that position again.

The Spaniard has been in very good form in 2021 and she has to be respected, but Simona Halep should find the breaks of serve to get into a position to cover this spread. It won't be easy if Sara Sorribes Tormo is able to dig in as much as she has throughout 2021, but Simona Halep is one of the top clay courters on the Tour and I think the match up is one that should be appealing to her.

Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: The last twelve months have been important for Victoria Azarenka who needed a Special Entry to play in the clay court tournaments in 2020, but who is back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings now. We haven't seen her since the Miami Masters that began at the end of March, but Victoria Azarenka is someone who has been pretty comfortable on the clay courts.

She will need to find her form pretty quickly as Azarenka has been drawn against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the First Round in Madrid. Last week the Russian won a couple of matches in the tough Stuttgart draw before coming up short against Simona Halep in the Quarter Final, but Alexandrova has been inconsistent on the clay courts throughout her career and we will see how much she has picked up from those wins in Stuttgart.

The return has been an area where Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled in her clay court matches, but she was serving well last week and that may be important in trying to keep tabs with Victoria Azarenka.

The latter does have a really vulnerable second serve and that is where Alexandrova is going to have to try and take advantage, but Victoria Azarenka is a very good returner on this surface and I think that is where the difference is made on the day. If Azarenka can get enough first serves in play she will likely feel that she has enough to get on top of the rallies and control them.

Both players should have their moments in the match, but Victoria Azarenka is the stronger clay court player even if this is her first match on the surface in 2021. It may take a set to really get her feet underneath her, but Victoria Azarenka should begin to take control against Ekaterina Alexandrova who is not as comfortable on the surface.

I expect the Belarusian's return of serve to prove to be the most important factor in this First Round encounter and it should be enough to see Victoria Azarenka win and get past this spread too.

MY PICKS: Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Saisai Zheng @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Albert Ramos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked - 9.25% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (April 29-May 1)

Every round of domestic football fixtures in April and May are going to have some major implications at the top and bottom of any Division and that is no different in the Premier League this weekend.

The race for the top four and the Premier League title could have a big couple of days, while there is beginning to be some issues determined with teams potentially being relegated this weekend depending on the results we see.

That means pressurised situations which can see players respond both positively and negatively and that itself can see some strange results produced. It is a really fun part of the season as the determination of whether this is going to be seen as a season of success or failure is going to be produced by the results over the next month.


Southampton v Hull City Pick: The games are beginning to run out and Hull City remain just outside the bottom three- make no mistake about it, Marco Silva would bite your hand off if you offered him a 17th place finish and would have done as soon as he took charge of The Tigers.

At some point Hull City will have to produce a big performance away from home to ease their worries, but they have handle the pressure at the KCOM Stadium to remain outside of the bottom three.

This week may not be the week for a positive away result for Hull City as they have continued to defend poorly on their travels and conceding at least two goals in 9 of 10 away games in all competitions is not very good. Facing a Southampton team with pace in the final third and a proven goalscorer in Manolo Gabbiadini is not really where Hull City would want to be.

Southampton will look to get forward at home and they do create chances, while they have beaten Hull City 4 times in a row at home. As well as Marco Silva has performed as manager of Hull City, he has yet to find the right balance away from home and I think this is a game that Southampton can win.

I imagine Hull City will cause some problems too for a Southampton defence that has struggled, but they concede too many and I am going to take The Saints on the Asian Handicap to move past them by at least a couple of goals.


Stoke City v West Ham United Pick: At this time of any League season, there will be games that are beginning to lose a lot of meaning outside of the financial success a club can achieve. The players aren't always that concerned about the difference between finishing 11th and 12th though and that can see some unmotivated performances being produced.

However both Mark Hughes and Slaven Bilic will believe a strong end to the season over their last four or five League games could see Stoke City and West Ham United challenge to finish in the top half. That is an achievement that can't be ignored and might release any pressure that the two managers could be feeling in their job.

For Hughes it looks less critical, but Bilic is trying to show the West Ham United board he is the man to take them forward. However the players haven't always responded to his tactics and that has been a big reason West Ham United have been so inconsistent this season.

They have had some real up and down performances on their travels and Stoke City have remained solid enough at the Bet365 Stadium to think they can edge this match. It won't be easy but Stoke City have the players in the final third to expose West Ham United's defensive issues, while the absence of Andy Carroll takes away a big goal threat from the visitors.

I imagine this will be a tight match at times with chances at both ends, but being able to back Stoke City at odds against looks a big price and one worth taking.


Sunderland v Bournemouth Pick: I really don't know what kind of atmosphere the Sunderland players can expect at the Stadium of Light on Saturday with relegation almost certainly confirmed after a 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough on Wednesday. Losing to their local rivals to be put on the brink of relegation is one thing, but the lack of real fight offered by the players will have hurt the fans.

Realistically I can see this fixture being played in front of a sparse crowd and that won't really help Sunderland who need to win their remaining five Premier League games and hope for help if they are going to create a miracle escape. Unlike previous seasons, the current manager David Moyes hasn't exactly inspired with his leadership and this is a much more difficult home game than it may initially seem.

Usually you would circle this kind of fixture as a 'must win' for a team in dire straits as Sunderland, but Bournemouth are going to challenge them fully with their ability to play strong football on the ground. This is a team who have shown they can score goals at tough grounds in recent weeks and Bournemouth have two strikers in Benik Afobe and Josh King who are helping create chances and finish them off.

I would be surprised if Bournemouth don't score here and the problems Sunderland have had in front of goal makes it easy to see why the away side are the favourite. They are a pretty big price because Bournemouth have not had a lot of success away from home in the Premier League this season but I did back West Ham United to win here recently and was only undone by a late Sunderland equaliser.

That's the only game in the last 10 in which Sunderland have scored and while Bournemouth will give you chances, I am not sure the home team have enough in the final third to really trust.

At the prices Bournemouth are a tempting price here and I am going to back them to come away with the three points after winning for the first time in Sunderland against a home team who may be feeling a little sorry for themselves.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: There were some criticisms for the fixture organisers from Sam Allardyce this past week, but his Crystal Palace side have played twice in the time since Burnley last took to the field and I wonder if that is going to play a part in this one.

Allardyce and Sean Dyche have both got a few injury issues to deal with ahead of this fixture and this could be a decent game between Crystal Palace and Burnley as both try to earn the three points that can keep them in the Premier League for another season.

I still think both will ultimately be safe, but Crystal Palace have a bit more momentum behind them and can make home advantage tell in this fixture.

Most will know all about the poor Burnley away record in the Premier League and losing the likes of Ben Mee and Stephen Ward would be a blow for them. They also have just hit a poor patch of form in recent weeks with 1 win from their last 12 in all competitions and I am not sure Burnley can do enough to prevent Crystal Palace taking advantage of them as they did against Hull City, Sunderland and Middlesbrough.

Crystal Palace have shown more quality in the final third and Allardyce should set his team up to avoid giving too much away from set pieces. They will look to take advantage of any issues Burnley have without the influential Mee at the heart of the defence and I think the home team can win this by a narrow margin.

It will be tough for both teams and at times the quality might not be there, but eventually I am looking for Crystal Palace to do enough to win the game.


Manchester United v Swansea City Pick: Jose Mourinho has stated for a number of weeks that he will continue to play his strongest team in both the Premier League and Europa League to make sure Manchester United have two shots to make the Champions League next season. Improved results in the Premier League coupled with slips from teams above them has meant Manchester United are having to keep fighting on two fronts and they have a chance to end Sunday in the top four.

All of that depends on whether Manchester United can find a way to turn draws into wins at Old Trafford and they will have to expect that Swansea City will come to defend in numbers and make life difficult for the home team.

Every point Swansea City earn at this point of the season could be vital for their chances to avoid relegation, but you can't ignore their 6 game losing run away from home in the Premier League. This is a team that doesn't do clean sheets which should give Manchester United opportunities to score goals, although it all depends on how clinical Manchester United feel on the day.

The likes of Jesse Lingard and Luke Shaw can come into freshen the starting eleven ahead of the Europa League Semi Final with Celta Vigo, while Paul Pogba will need to pass a fitness test. Marouane Fellaini's suspension shouldn't be a big issue here as it will see Manchester United play an attacking line up at Old Trafford and I do think they will be too good for Swansea City on the day.

Defensively Manchester United have been strong and they do create chances at home with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Anthony Martial, Jesse Lingard and Marcus Rashford more than capable of providing a goalscoring threat. Wayne Rooney will likely be used in some capacity too and I think Manchester United will win this game and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.

When Manchester United have won their home games, they have tended to come by a comfortable margin so I will look for them to secure a three points that will move them into 3rd for at least a couple of hours and into 4th for at least twenty-four hours.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: This is the second live Premier League game on Sunday and this might be the last chance for Chelsea to really slip up in the Premier League title race and give the television networks something to promote.

They might have the best away record in the Premier League this season with 11 wins behind them, but Chelsea have won just 4 of their last 8 on their travels in the League. In that time they have lost at Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United while failing to win at Liverpool and Burnley and now they face an Everton team who have played with a lot of confidence when they have been at home.

Everton have won 8 in a row at Goodison Park in the Premier League and have scored at least twice in each of those wins. They are up against a Chelsea defence that has been conceding more goals than they did in the middle of the season and who haven't had a clean sheet in the Premier League since the end of January, a run of 11 League games in a row.

Romelu Lukaku is going to want to show off his goalscoring record against his former club and potential future employer and Ronald Koeman's Southampton had a decent record against Chelsea. With the goals Everton can score, I expect they will pose problems, although one word of caution has to be their 8 game home winning run in the League has seen them face only one team from above them in the League table.

Everton have beaten Arsenal and Manchester City here and drawn with Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, while Liverpool needed an injury time goal to win here. That will give them confidence against a Chelsea team that have a 1-1-3 record away from home against the teams directly below them.

I do think Chelsea will score goals here though and they have scored in 13 of 16 away games this season even if those exceptions have come at top six teams. Everton have conceded in their last couple of games here and have some defensive issues which should be exploited by Chelsea, and 3 of the last 4 League games here between these teams have ended with at least three goals shared out.

The home team have nothing to lose and Chelsea will be looking for a big three points which should mean an entertaining Sunday afternoon game and I think backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.


Middlesbrough v Manchester City Pick: This Premier League fixture was pushed back twenty-four hours after the Manchester derby was rescheduled for Thursday night and it is a big one for both Middlesbrough and Manchester City.

Middlesbrough gave themselves a chance of surviving with a 1-0 win over Sunderland on Wednesday, although it was a tense game where neither team played with a lot of confidence. They are going to need to be a lot better to challenge Manchester City who have been able to play much more effectively away from home where they can expose more spaces that the home teams have to leave behind.

That could be an issue for Middlesbrough this weekend with a point not really doing a lot for them, and they have begun to look weaker defensively as they have tried to be more proactive going forward. Against a team like Manchester City, ineffective balance could be a real problem and I am expecting a similar result and performance from both teams that was seen in the FA Cup Quarter Final.

That game was won 0-2 by Manchester City who scored at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half to take control of the match. Manchester City have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games and I do think Middlesbrough have just had a few issues against the top teams in the Division.

Only Everton from the top seven have failed to win here and all the others except Chelsea have scored more than once. I would expect Manchester City to have Gabriel Jesus playing more minutes here and they have the attacking players who can be very good away from home where their hosts have to play with a little more attacking intent.

With Middlesbrough chasing the three points that are so important to their survival bid, I am expecting Manchester City to pick them off and come away with a win by at least two goals. 8 of their 11 away Premier League wins this season have come by a least two goals including each of the last 5 away League wins Manchester City have secured and I am going to back them to do that here this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: The North London derby has some major implications for both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal with one chasing the Premier League title and the other a top four place where they look like they are going to fall short.

For the majority of the Arsene Wenger years at Arsenal, they would have been the one in the title race while Tottenham Hotspur would be chasing the top four, but things have changed this season.

The three points are so important for both at the time I am writing this, but they could be even more important depending how results have gone earlier in the day when the likes of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea all play. Both North London clubs will be hoping those three teams have dropped points in their earlier League games, but regardless there is going to be plenty on the line in the North London derby.

I have to give the edge to Tottenham Hotspur in the fixture with their 15 straight wins at White Hart Lane in all competitions and 8 straight Premier League wins overall behind them. Even though Arsenal won at Middlesbrough last time out, they were not that impressive and had lost 4 straight away League games at Chelsea, Liverpool, West Brom and Crystal Palace while conceding three times in each game.

Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur both laboured to wins on Wednesday, but the home advantage is likely to be vital in this one. Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 of the last 5 League games between these North London rivals at White Hart Lane and goals generally flow when these teams meet.

Tottenham Hotspur have scored plenty of goals at home and Arsenal have been conceding goals for fun on their travels and their recent away games have tended to feature goals. There is every chance there are three or more goals in this one and the feeling is Tottenham Hotspur will earn the win.

Putting those options together produces a big price and I am going to back that to be the outcome from this Premier League live game on Sunday afternoon.


Watford v Liverpool Pick: The result last Sunday has just helped the Liverpool rivals for a top four spot and has heaped some real pressure on Jurgen Klopp and his players on Monday night. The defeat to Crystal Palace coupled with a win for Manchester United has closed the gap between those rivals to just 3 points, but Manchester United will have played twice by the time this one kicks off.

That could mean Liverpool are kicking off outside of the top four and mentally that could be a huge blow for a club who are desperate to return to the Champions League.

This does look a fixture from which they can bounce back from the surprise defeat to Crystal Palace, but underestimating Watford at Vicarage Road would be a big mistake. The Hornets have won 3 Premier League games in a row here and have performed better on their home patch for the majority of the season while also trying to earn revenge for an embarrassing 6-1 loss at Anfield.

Watford may have lost to Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur here, but they have beaten Manchester United and Everton so they will believe they can pose problems for Liverpool. Their visitors have also been a little inconsistent when facing those teams in the bottom half of the table and have lost at Bournemouth, Leicester City and Hull City this season while failing to win at Sunderland.

That makes picking a winner tougher, but backing at least three goals could be the way to go. All of Watford's home games against the top seven this season have ended with at least three goals shared out, while Liverpool have visited 9 of the teams currently in the bottom half of the Premier League table and 7 of those finished with at least three goals.

Both teams have every chance of scoring in this one and I think there will be plenty of chances created which should see goals in this Monday night football encounter. The more likely winner is clearly Liverpool, but I hope Watford can cause a surprise or two themselves although the overriding feeling is that this game will produce at least three goals and I will back that to occur.

MY PICKS: Southampton - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.15 William Hill (2 Units)
Bournemouth @ 2.40 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Coral (2 Units)
Watford-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)

April Update: 36-29-1, + 13.20 Units (131 Units Staked, + 10.08% Yield)

March Final: 39-40-3, + 6.64 Units (157 Units Staked, + 4.23% Yield)
February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)