Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 28th)

So I've made a very early decision to take a break from the Tennis Picks until at least the Rome Masters, but most likely until the French Open after a horrific first day at the Madrid Masters.

I think you have to make a decision like that when you have a day that is following two tournaments where I actually can't understand how some of the selections have lost.

Making this early decision means I can sit down and really look to find the answers, but I simply think some of the luck against the Picks has been absolutely horrific and that cannot be something I can tolerate.

At the moment it seems like I can back a favourite and they will simply come out and play like they have never see a Tennis court before, while any underdog I pick will produce a terrible day.

That was the case on Thursday and ultimately it is better to take a step back than push on knowing that there is a negativity around the approach that cannot be resolved by pushing through. Instead I have to make more adjustments and just prepare for the second Grand Slam of the season to get this season back on track having gone off the rails in Miami, Monte Carlo and Madrid.

When you see players have more Break Point chances and still struggle over the line or fail to capitalise, you know the approach isn't that far off, but I think I'm feeling frustrated with the process and having a day like I did on Thursday is simply not good enough.

As I have mentioned above, I can write off days like that where you know the Picks have been poor and they deserved to lose, but that was not the case in the opening selections and that only irritates, which will lead to bad decisions. So instead I will be watching the Tennis and making notes on players that can and cannot be trusted when the French Open rolls around at the end of May, assuming I will not be looking to dive back in when the Rome Masters is played early next month.

Good luck to those sticking with things, but I am focusing on a big French Open instead and then the grass court season and for now these pages will be sticking with the NBA PlayOffs.

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 27th)

The opening clay court Tennis Picks were really disappointing at the Monte Carlo Masters, but there are two big Masters events to be played before the French Open begins and I am looking for a much better return over the next ten days.

The tournament in Madrid has already begun with the WTA First Round completed and half of the ATP First Round also in the books.

However, I did want to wait to get into my Tennis Picks having not really seen a lot of good plays in the first couple of days at the event, but the bigger names are now in action as they look to set a marker for the French Open beginning in less than a month from now.

Remember one thing though, the Madrid Masters tends to play differently than the other clay courts coming up in Rome and Paris and this has been a tournament that has suited the more aggressive players. While still slower than a hard court, it is a court on which the players are able to hit through the surface a little more than they can in the big tournaments coming up and that is something to note.

I should be able to put up longer threads from the weekend through to the end of the tournament, but the Thursday and Friday posts will concentrate on the selections alone.

Early next week I will place the season totals in a thread too.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Jarry - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maryna Zanevska + 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Anhelina Kalinina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 5th)

After a solid couple of weeks, things came crashing down with a thump on Wednesday.

I have written before that I have needed some luck with my selections to pick up the results I have had, but that luck can turn against you at a moment's notice.

Bad Picks have largely been avoided, but that was not the case on Wednesday- Casper Ruud and Amanda Anisimova were poor selections all things considered, but I could not have seen Simona Halep playing as poorly as she did.

However, the Picks that have bothered me are the Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Stefanos Tsitsipas selections.

Alexander Zverev was leading 4-2 and had break points to move further ahead in the first set before losing four games in a row. He later missed a 0-40 position to earn a double break in the second set which would have given him a chance to cover against Marin Cilic, but ultimately won comfortably enough.

That loss hurt and was followed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina somehow losing to Hubert Hurkacz- in his case he had break points in two games in the first set and couldn't convert either time before losing the set with the first break points faced.

Later he had moved ahead by a double break, but could not seal the second set without dropping his serve at 5-2 and that meant needing a break of serve in the final set. Again he could not hold onto serve.

Finally Stefanos Tsitsipas was winning 6-3, 3-1 and had a 0-40 situation... Of course that would wrap up the day with a failure to earn the double break and eventually cruise through the remainder of the win over Lucas Pouille in a 6-3, 6-4 win and another miss of the cover by half a game.

I couldn't believe the way the day went down and it is my worst one on the clay courts by a considerable distance.

Things can turn around, but I do think it is important to try and relax and focus on what you are doing.

Anything that could go wrong, went wrong on Wednesday, but those were selections which would usually have been much more likely to have covered than not. With that in mind I am disappointed, but I am also a realist and accept that the research wasn't wrong, but the luck was simply missing when players were not converting situations that had come up.

On Thursday there are a lot of matches scheduled to be out on the Madrid courts, and I would be extremely disappointed to have as a poor a day again.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Both of these players were a part of the 'Big Four' of Men's Tennis a few years ago, but Andy Murray was not really able to keep up with the consistency of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. He was still a player that has been involved in Finals against all of those top players of the Tour and the fact of the matter is that this is the thirty-seventh time Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be facing one another on the Tour.

While Andy Murray is trying to regain some of the form and consistency he once displayed on the Tour, Novak Djokovic is still the World Number 1.

However, Andy Murray has played more matches than Novak Djokovic in 2022 largely down to the unvaccinated path the latter has chosen and that does raise some questions as to how this match will develop. The British player was not supposed to play on the clay courts this season, but he has taken a Wild Card here in Madrid to get some more competitive tennis underneath him and Andy Murray has been a very strong winner in his two matches played.

Wins over Dominic Thiem, who is coming back from injury, and Denis Shapovalov means Andy Murray has won two matches in the same tournament for the first time since January. His level of performance in those wins has to be greatly respected, although Andy Murray has already admitted that this is a really tough match for him and will be a marker to see how far he is from really competing with the top players again.

Novak Djokovic reached the Final in Belgrade in the last tournament he has played and he was a very comfortable winner over Gael Monfils in the Second Round in Madrid. The lack of competitive tennis has meant Djokovic has been struggling with his own consistency and the serve has been particularly difficult for him with Novak Djokovic winning less than 60% of the points played behind serve on the clay courts.

He has also not returned as well as we have become used to seeing from Novak Djokovic, but the battling wins in Belgrade will stand him in good stead.

Matches between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have tended to be competitive, but the clay courts have given the Serb a little more of an edge.

I am expecting Murray to be inspired to show how much he still has in the tank, but Novak Djokovic will be comfortable with the match up too and my feeling is that the World Number 1 can build on the Second Round win. Novak Djokovic did win the Madrid Masters when he last played here and I do think he will be able to find enough quality returns to attack the Andy Murray second serve and eventually pull clear in this match, even while still looking to rediscover his very best form on the court.

Andy Murray had lost all five matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2022 before the win over Denis Shapovalov and he has found himself just wearing down against those opponents. Someone like Novak Djokovic is likely going to want to keep Andy Murray moving as much as possible and it could see fatigue wear down the former World Number 1 against a player that is looking like he will soon be finding his best on the court.

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v David Goffin: He may have been watching his beloved Real Madrid produce a stunning comeback in the Champions League Semi Final on Wednesday, but Rafael Nadal has been producing plenty of his own over the last twelve months. An injury layoff saw the Spaniard return and win the Australian Open earlier this season, while Rafael Nadal has returned to the Tour in Madrid having been missing since reaching the Indian Wells Final.

The rib injury did not seem to be bothering Rafael Nadal too much in his Second Round win over Miomir Kecmanovic and it was an impressive return against an in-form opponent.

He may feel he has to raise his level again in the Third Round when Nadal takes on David Goffin who has won a couple of Qualifiers and then followed that up with a couple more wins in the main draw of the Madrid Masters. After a couple of really underwhelming years on the clay courts, David Goffin has already won a title on the surface in 2022 and the wins being stung together will have given him a lot of confidence.

As much as you have to respect any Qualifier that has won four matches in a row and clearly enjoying the conditions at the event, David Goffin has not faced anyone of the quality of Rafael Nadal. This is the clay court event where Rafael Nadal has tended to be more vulnerable than the others on the Tour, but I am not sure someone like David Goffin has the tennis to really take advantage of the conditions to hurt Nadal regularly.

David Goffin has put together some decent numbers on the clay courts and he has not played badly when he has been put up against top 50 Ranked opponents either.

Again, I cannot emphasise enough how much of a challenge Rafael Nadal presents on the surface and I do think he is going to be able to break down David Goffin, much as he has done in their previous matches.

They have not met since 2019 on the clay courts at the French Open, but Rafael Nadal has won all four previous matches on the surface against David Goffin. In those matches, Rafael Nadal has held 93% of the service games he has played, while David Goffin has only managed to hold 61% of his own service games.

It may be a little closer in terms of numbers in this Third Round match with Rafael Nadal having missed a few weeks of the Tour and David Goffin in decent shape on the clay courts.

Even with that in mind, I do think the Spaniard will be able to find the tennis to move through to the Quarter Final and I think Nadal's ability to break the Goffin serve should give him every chance of covering a big spread.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 12-17, - 12.42 Units (58 Units Staked, - 21.41% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 4th)

It was another mixed day for the Tennis Picks and I have been a little disappointed with my record in the Madrid Masters after the strong outcome of the Estoril/Munich events.

Things have been difficult so far, but the players left in the tournament should have begun to get to grips with the conditions in Madrid.

The markets have yet to be put together for some of the matches that are to come later in the day on Wednesday in the Second Round in the ATP Madrid event, but any selections from those will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: All players that have reached the Quarter Final of a big tournament like the WTA Madrid event will be feeling pretty confident about their chances of going on and winning the title. With Ashleigh Barty retired and Iga Swiatek withdrawn from the event, the Madrid Masters looks pretty open and all of the players remaining in the draw are going to believe they can set a marker for the upcoming French Open.

Of course it also has to be noted that the Madrid Masters is played in much different conditions than those at Roland Garros and so the Champion here will still have something to prove. Next week the second Masters event on the clay in Rome will be beginning and that may be a tournament that gives us a better idea of the kind of players that may have a big impact at the next Grand Slam.

In saying that, Amanda Anisimova will be feeling good about her tennis having reached the Semi Final in Charleston before her run to the Quarter Final here in Madrid. The American has yet to really fulfil the kind of potential she has, but Amanda Anisimova has not had the best of times personally and I do think that has affected her tennis.

However, the former French Open Semi Finalist looks to be playing some strong tennis on the clay courts and she has been a player that has enjoyed playing on the clay courts. The wins in Madrid have rarely come easy this week, but Amanda Anisimova won well in the Third Round after a couple of tough victories and confidence has to be strong knowing she can weather the difficult moments.

Amanda Anisimova has been serving well and that will be important for her in the conditions, but she does have room for improvement having won just 43% of return points played. Break points have been created regularly in the tournament, but Amanda Anisimova will be looking to be a little better on the big points and especially in a match like this one.

Her Quarter Final opponent Ekaterina Alexandrova has come through the Qualifiers before winning three matches in the main draw, but there were one or two concerning signs at the end of her Third Round win. The Qualifier missed Match Points at 5-3 and 5-4 in the decider, and Ekaterina Alexandrova looked like she was running on fumes so the day off between matches is going to be key for the underdog.

In recent years Ekaterina Alexandrova has not had the best record on the clay courts, but in 2022 she has been playing really well and she could be dangerous. The serve has been setting her up through the tournament in Madrid and Alexandrova has won 49% of return points played, although only one of the five wins has come against a top 50 Ranked opponent.

Over the last twelve months, Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled with her return and second serve when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent and I do think she is going to be a touch fatigued against a player who has a solid clay court game.

In their sole previous match, Amanda Anisimova had too much for Ekaterina Alexandrova on a hard court and the latter struggled with her return on the day. In these conditions in Madrid, I think the American can work her way past her opponent and I think she may be the fresher of the two players as this match develops, something that should see the American pull clear for a good win on her way through to the Semi Final.

Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ons Jabeur: Any player who starts a professional career in tennis and ends up winning two Grand Slam titles would look back with positives, but the feeling for Simona Halep is that there is still some meat on the bone. A former French Open and Wimbledon Champion has clearly made the decision to partner with Patrick Mouratoglou with the ambition to win more Grand Slams and her return to her favoured surface has been reaping rewards this week.

Beating Iga Swiatek looks like it will be the big challenge for every player on the WTA side of the Tour when the French Open begins, but the World Number 1 is not here this week and Simona Halep has knocked off the World Number 2.

The former World Number 1 is a three time Finalist at the French Open and her performances here in Madrid have been very encouraging with three strong wins behind her. Simona Halep has not dropped a set yet, and she has been able to serve very well with the first serve really proving to be a potent weapon for her.

Even the second serve has been well protected and this side of her game is backed up by a return which has seen Simona Halep win almost 49% of return points and break serve at least three times in all three of her wins.

This is another tough test for Halep when she meets Ons Jabeur in the Quarter Final and the top ten Ranked player has been in good form on the clay courts in each of the last couple of years. This season Ons Jabeur has reached the Final in Charleston and the Quarter Final in Stuttgart, while her run to the Quarter Final in Madrid has backed up the early performances on the clay with the French Open coming up later this month.

The key to this match may be the second serve for the two players- Ons Jabeur has struggled to protect that part of her tennis in Madrid, although the first serve has been in good shape. You have to expect Simona Halep to get on top of the second serve, and that is going to put some pressure on Jabeur to make sure she increases the number of first serves she gets in play.

Both of these players are returning well enough to mean that the first serve has to keep the other at bay and it does feel like Simona Halep is going to get more of those in play. The surface is one she favours over Ons Jabeur and I do think Halep has long been one of the best players on the clay courts and I am looking for her to secure her place in the Semi Final.

When these players met in Dubai earlier this year, Simona Halep was a comfortable winner and I think there is more of an edge for her on the clay courts. She can show that off and underline her place as arguably the second favourite to win the French Open with another impressive win in this Masters event.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

David Goffin @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 11-11, - 2.62 Units (44 Units Staked, - 5.95% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 3rd)

The last couple of days have been much more difficult for the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters, but I am hoping to get back to winning ways on Tuesday.

I have been able to update the season totals after the events in Estoril and Munich were concluded on Sunday, which you can see below.

There are plenty of matches scheduled to be played in Madrid on Tuesday, but the selections I've found can be read here. Some markets have yet to be put together with Second Round ATP matches set to be played on Tuesday as well as the conclusion of the First Round, and any additional Picks will be added here too.

Sara Sorribes Tormo v Daria Kasatkina: There are some very good looking matches on the WTA side of the Madrid Masters on Tuesday, but the layers seem to be on top of the prices for the most part.

One Third Round match where I feel they have gotten the prices the wrong way around is the one between the Sara Sorribes Tormo and Daria Kasatkina.

The home favourite crushed Naomi Osaka in the Second Round and Sara Sorribes Tormo has spoken about feeling burnout at the end of last season, but feeling much more renewed in 2022. She has not really played to the same level as 2021 so far this season, but the early performances on the clay courts are encouraging and the win over Naomi Osaka will have given her a huge boost.

With the fans behind her, Sara Sorribes Tormo should be able to back up that win in the Second Round, although she will know this is going to be a tough match against Daria Kasatkina. The latter has played well on the clay courts throughout her career, but the World Number 23 has never been a dominant player with a serve that can be vulnerable, which puts pressure on the return of serve.

Both of these players have struggled with the second serve, but Sara Sorribes Tormo has tended to get a much higher percentage of first serves into play. That could be to the outcome of this one, especially when you think the Spaniard has been the stronger return player in the limited sample of clay court matches in 2022.

Even a longer look at the last twelve months, Sara Sorribes Tormo has been the player with the superior second serve and return numbers on the clay courts and I think she can get the better of Daria Kasatkina as the slight underdog. These players have split two previous matches on the clay courts and I expect there to be plenty of break point chances in this one, but Sara Sorribes Tormo can use the energy of the crowd to take her through to the Quarter Final.

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Hugo Dellien: There is only a small sample of clay court tennis played by Hubert Hurkacz in 2022 and this is only the second tournament has entered on the surface. However, the Polish player reached the Monte Carlo Masters Quarter Final before losing a tight match to Grigor Dimitrov and the next month could still be productive for Hurkacz who is perhaps looking forward to the grass court and hard court portions of the season to come.

In previous years, Hubert Hurkacz has not really enjoyed a lot of success on the clay and last season was a particularly difficult one for him. That makes the Monte Carlo performance important as he looks to find the confidence to put together strong runs on the surface and I think he will benefit from playing someone he has already beaten on the clay in 2022.

The First Round match against Hugo Dellien does look very winnable on paper, especially in the tough conditions in Madrid where you would expect the Hubert Hurkacz serve to make more of an impact than in other clay events.

Hugo Dellien has come through the Qualifiers in Madrid so the conditions are not going to surprise him, while has won plenty of clay court matches throughout the season. However, Hugo Dellien has seen the numbers take a serious drop whenever he has been faced with top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface this season.

In all matches on the clay, the Bolivian has held 78% of his service games played and broken in 39% of return games, but both numbers dip to 72% and 27% when Hugo Dellien has been up against top 100 Ranked opponents.

These two players met in Monte Carlo after Hugo Dellien had won a couple of Qualifiers, but he was not able to deal with the Hubert Hurkacz serve and the latter won 70% of points played behind that shot. With the conditions as they are in Madrid, I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to match that, while the top 20 Ranked player was also able to break serve in 27% of return games against the Dellien serve.

I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to frank the form in a tournament that should suit his tennis more than the events in Monte Carlo, Rome or Paris would. I would not be surprised if Hugo Dellien pushes him early, but eventually Hubert Hurkacz should be able to exert enough scoreboard pressure to pull clear for a good, solid First Round win.

MY PICKS: Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 9-8, - 0.26 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Season 2022: - 9.36 Units (564 Units Staked, - 1.66% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 2nd)

I mentioned that this thread will be a lot more substantial for the Tuesday Tennis Picks at the Madrid Masters merely because I would not have the time to write out my research and reasons for a selection or two as I would have normally.

You can see my selections from Monday's Tennis below and also the final tally from the tournaments that were completed on Sunday as well as the Madrid Masters update.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-4, + 7.82 Units (26 Units Staked, + 30.08% Yield)

Madrid Update: 7-4, + 4.54 Units (22 Units Staked, + 20.64% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 1st)

A difficult start on Saturday was replaced with three consecutive winners for the Tennis Picks and it has kept the week totals ticking along nicely.

The WTA event will have reached the Third Round in Madrid by the time the Sunday action is concluded, but the ATP First Round begins on the same day, while the tournaments in Estoril and Munich conclude with both Finals set to be played.

I will update the season totals in the Tuesday Tennis Picks thread, but for now you can read my selections from the Sunday schedule below.

Marta Kostyuk v Emma Raducanu: Two very young players are meeting on the clay courts in the WTA Madrid Second Round and I have little doubt that Marta Kostyuk and Emma Raducanu know all about the other. It is Marta Kostyuk who is the slightly older of the two and she has been a pro for longer, but Emma Raducanu has raised her own stock ever since winning the US Open.

A first competitive season playing on the clay is something of a learning experience for Raducanu, but she was a solid enough winner in the First Round. It is the second time she has beaten Tereza Martincova on the clay courts, while Emma Raducanu is feeling pretty comfortable on the surface, despite the heavy loss to Marketa Vondrousova in the Billy Jean King Cup.

The numbers back that up, but this is a match against a pretty strong clay courter in Marta Kostyuk who reached the French Open Fourth Round last year. We haven't seen a lot of Kostyuk on the clay courts in 2022 as she continues to worry about the situation in Ukraine, her home, but she was a strong winner over Clara Tauson in the First Round.

In her early career, Marta Kostyuk has shown a liking to playing on the clay courts and I do think that experience could stand her in good stead against her British opponent.

Over the last twelve months, Marta Kostyuk has shown she has a pretty effective serve on this surface and she has been able to back that up with strong returning displays. We don't have a very big sample of numbers from Emma Raducanu, but it does feel like her second serve is pretty attackable on the clay and that is where Kostyuk could come out on top in this match.

Both players will feel they can have success when they are returning, but I do have a touch more faith in the Marta Kostyuk serve in what is a pick 'em match set by the layers.

These two did meet on a hard court at the back end of 2021 and it was Marta Kostyuk who crushed Emma Raducanu for the loss of three games. The British player did struggle with the weight of expectation following the US Open success, but Emma Raducanu saw her serve attacked over and over again and I think Marta Kostyuk will be the player moving through to the Third Round thanks to her superior clay court successes.

MY PICKS: Marta Kostyuk @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6 Units (24 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Madrid Update: 6-2, + 6.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.38% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 8th)

The last couple of days have been very poor for the Tennis Picks, but I am a touch frustrated with my selections and also with a couple of matches barely dropping on the wrong side of the fence.

With two days left in Madrid before the Tours move to Rome, I do want some positive momentum to carry me into the last Masters tournament before the French Open begins later this month.

Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: This is the second red clay Final which features Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka already in 2021 and the two players may be heading towards the French Open as two of the four or five favourites to win the next Grand Slam of the season.

The two players met in the Final in Stuttgart a couple of weeks ago and it was Ashleigh Barty who came from a set behind to eventually get the better of Aryna Sabalenka. The Australian was a deserving winner on the day once she figured out the big hitting game that Sabalenka brings to the court, although the conditions in Madrid may be a little tougher for Ashleigh Barty when it comes to defending and turning rallies in her favour.

Over the week in Madrid, Aryna Sabalenka has been playing the better tennis than Ashleigh Barty, although some of the numbers are down to the fact that she has not faced the same level of competition as Barty. That has to be factored into the match and both players will be confident they can get enough out of their serves to at least give them a chance to play first strike tennis on a clay court which is quicker than most others on the European clay court swing.

Aryna Sabalenka has the edge in the returning numbers, but again it is partly down to the fact that she has not faced servers like Paula Badosa and Petra Kvitova like Ashleigh Barty has had to do. It is clear that Sabalenka is plenty confident and really finding her feet on the clay where the ball just sits up for her heavy groundstrokes, but I expect Ashleigh Barty to make life awkward with her ability to hit through the court.

In their match in Stuttgart, Ashleigh Barty created break points in seven return games compared with Aryna Sabalenka's four return games and she also won 47% of return points compared with 35% for the Belarusian. The faster conditions in Madrid should mean those return numbers are knocked back somewhat, but I do think Ashleigh Barty remains the more consistent player on the clay courts of the two playing in the Final in Madrid.

The 'x' factor also favours Ashleigh Barty as one of the smarter players on the Tour who is willing to move to her second or third game plan if the first one is not working as well as she would like. The ability to make adjustments within a match can't be underestimated and I think Ashleigh Barty will work her way past Aryna Sabalenka to underline her status as perhaps the favourite to win the French Open where she will be playing for the first time since winning the Grand Slam title in 2019.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: There will be some painful memories for Alexander Zverev to deal with when he faces Dominic Thiem in this Madrid Masters Semi Final and thoughts won't be too far away from the US Open Final these two competed in last year.

On that occasion Alexander Zverev won the first two sets and also served for the Championship in the fifth set, but it was Dominic Thiem who recovered and eventually won the final set tie-breaker to become a first time Grand Slam Champion. He also improved his head to head against Alexander Zverev to 8-2, while Thiem has long been considered one of the top three clay courters on the ATP side of the Tour.

Unsurprisingly that has led to Dominic Thiem winning four of their five previous matches on the clay courts, although the last time they have met came in 2018 at the French Open. And one memory that will give Alexander Zverev confidence is the fact that the sole win on clay over Dominic Thiem has occurred here in Madrid where the conditions should suit the aggressive style of the German player.

Alexander Zverev won't be short of confidence having beaten Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final on Friday and deserving his victory. The German has been serving very well in this tournament and he has faced just seven break points in total in his three wins in Madrid, while Alexander Zverev's return has been very effective throughout the tournament.

I do expect him to be tested by Dominic Thiem who has only made his return to the Tour at this tournament having not previously played since mid-March in Dubai. Despite the lack of time playing competitive tennis, Dominic Thiem has shown off his clay court experience to win his three matches here, although he has been pushed pretty far by both Alex De Minaur and John Isner in the last two Rounds.

The numbers from those two wins shows that Thiem is serving pretty efficiently, but the timing on the return has not really reached the level he can and I do think that is where Alexander Zverev has a big edge in this Semi Final. Take away the big win over Marcos Giron in the Second Round and Dominic Thiem is winning 36% of return points played in this tournament compared with Alexander Zverev's 42% mark and that is a considerable difference.

It has shown up in the percentage of return games in which a break has been secured by the two players with Thiem running at 20% in the last two matches compared with Zverev's 32% mark, although you can't ignore the fact that Dominic Thiem did face the huge-serving Isner in the Quarter Final.

Even then I think the conditions here in Madrid look to be suiting Alexander Zverev a bit more than Dominic Thiem and the former should also be more ready to play competitive tennis day after day rather than Thiem who is building fitness towards the French Open. There are going to be some key moments and much will depend on how much focus Alexander Zverev has as he tries to back up the big win over Rafael Nadal, but if he continues serving at the level he has been in this tournament I think the return game will earn the chances to break down Dominic Thiem.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 17-18, - 5 Units (70 Units Staked, - 7.14% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 7th)

The Men's Quarter Final matches are set to be played on Friday at the Madrid Masters, but the late finish to those Third Round matches on Thursday means there has been little time to write out my full reasons for my selections.

Thursday was a difficult day for the Tennis selections with a couple of late matches barely missing the cover, but ultimately coming close and not crossing the line is not good enough.

Matches will be played back to back through the day as I look for a bounce back day.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 6th)

I've had a couple of long days and the late markets being put together for the Thursday's Tennis at the Madrid Masters means I will only be playing my selections from the day here without writing out an analysis of those selections.

The last two days have been positives one for the Tennis Picks and Wednesday would have been a really strong day if Elise Mertens was able to play out the final two games as it looked like she was heading to an inevitable defeat to Aryna Sabalenka. However, I am just glad to put some wins together after a tough last month and hopefully the momentum can continue when the ATP Third Round matches and WTA Semi Finals are played on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 16-12, + 5.18 Units (56 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 5th)

There is another busy day coming up at the Madrid Masters and I am looking to back up what was a decent Tuesday.

It could have been better, but over the last month I can certainly feel things could always be worse and especially after more Set/Match Points that came and went in some of the matches that I had selected.

Petra Kvitova + 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty:  There had been very little sign throughout her career to suggest that the first Grand Slam title that Ashleigh Barty was going to win would come at the French Open. The best run the Australian had previously had any Grand Slam was reaching the Quarter Final at the Australian Open in 2019, but Barty surprised many by picking up the French Open title later in the same year and she will head to Paris as one of the two players whose last appearance on those courts had been in winning the title.

After missing the entirety of the 2020 season following the Covid-19 outbreak, Ashleigh Barty has returned to clay court action by winning the title in Stuttgart and she has won three matches in reaching the Madrid Quarter Final. Confidence on the red dirt is clearly still very high in the Barty camp, although the most evident part of her performances over the last month has been the fight that Barty has shown to turn matches that looked to have gotten beyond her.

The ability to work out where a match is being won and lost and to be able to make the changes to the tennis to turn them around is highly impressive from Barty and something her opponent will know all about. On a number of occasions Ashleigh Barty has recovered from tough positions to beat Petra Kvitova and I am not that surprised to see the current World Number 1 going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.

In saying that, I think it would be foolish to ignore the amount of tight matches that Barty has been involved in regardless of the fact she has found the right tennis to win many of those. Now she has to take on Petra Kvitova who has twice reached the Semi Final at the French Open and who has long been a very competent clay court player despite her only Grand Slam successes coming on a vastly different surface as the grass at Wimbledon is.

Petra Kvitova has not been at her very best on the clay courts so far this season, but her three wins in Madrid have been impressive and the faster conditions here should suit the kind of style that the Czech lefty wants to bring to the court. Both players have been serving well in Madrid and there is room for improvement in their return games and I do anticipate a tight match between these two top WTA players.

The underdog does look to be peaking in this tournament and matches between Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty have been very, very competitive in recent years which makes the amount of games being given to the Czech player look very appealing. I think she is a comfortable enough clay courter to hurt Ashleigh Barty and the latter has just about crossed over the line in the last two Rounds compared with Petra Kvitova who has looked the stronger player.

Ashleigh Barty has been facing a lot more break points than Petra Kvitova in the tournament to this point too and I expect the returning of the latter to at least give her a chance to win a set and keep this match very close even in a losing effort.

More than half of their previous nine matches have needed a third set decider to determine the winner and both have had four match winning streaks against the other. Petra Kvitova snapped her four match losing run by beating Ashleigh Barty in Doha fifteen months ago and I think this has all the makings of a very tight match when looking at the numbers both have been producing on the clay courts over the last month.

Paula Badosa - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: A career best World Ranking was reached by Paula Badosa last month and you would think the next few weeks offers her a really good chance to build on that with the clay courts her favoured surface. A run to the Semi Final in Charleston was a good start for the Spaniard, but she has backed that up with three wins here in Madrid to reach the Quarter Final where she will begin as favourite.

At 23 years old, Paula Badosa looks like an improving player on the Tour and she is beginning to put some consistency on her performances which are pushing her up the World Rankings. It is important to help Badosa enter the biggest tournaments without the need for a Wild Card in the future, but she has taken full advantage of the opportunity that has been afforded to her in Madrid.

The first three matches have been tough for Badosa and the big concern has to be the amount of time she has spent on the court. The Spaniard needed more than two and a half hours to beat Anastasija Sevastova in the Third Round, but the set up in Madrid this season has given the players a chance to have a day of rest between matches and that could be vital for Badosa.

She will take on a higher Ranked opponent in the form of Belinda Bencic, but consistency has been a big issue for the Swiss player over the last twelve months. When the World Rankings return to the usual format I fully expect to see Bencic have a significant drop from her current World Number 11 spot, although the run to the Quarter Final in Madrid will be valuable to her.

Valuable and surprising considering the level that Belinda Bencic has found on the clay courts where she has proven to be a pretty average performer in recent years. Belinda Bencic had been just 1-2 on the clay courts in 2021 before her run in Madrid and she has been a touch fortunate in the last two Rounds to work her way past a couple of opponents who will feel they could have had a different result on a different day.

Belinda Bencic has been producing better service numbers than Paula Badosa, but there is a massive edge in the returning aspect the two players have produced. The Spaniard is winning over 50% of return points played compared with Bencic's 39% mark in this tournament and I do think that will be the key difference when this Quarter Final is decided.

Paula Badosa also holds an edge mentally when you think of the way she dismantled Bencic over three sets in Charleston last month- the American clay is different to the European clay and the faster conditions should help Bencic here, but Badosa got enough out of her first serve to break down the Bencic game over the two plus hours they spent on the court.

The expectation to win might be a hindrance to Paula Badosa, but I think she will likely see herself as the underdog and I expect that to focus her and help get the better of Belinda Bencic. I do think the Spaniard is the better clay courter of the two and looks to be playing the better tennis too which could make all the difference in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 12-10, + 1.74 Units (44 Units Staked, + 3.95% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 4th)

The Bank Holiday Weekend is behind us in the United Kingdom, but that has not been the reason that there have not been any Tennis Picks over the last three days.

The most simple reason is usually the right one- in this case there have literally not been any matches that have fit my criteria.

It is perhaps a surprise to read that, but some of the reasons were wanting to see what kind of form players are in, while a top tournament like the one being played in Madrid will have some very competitive matches that feel difficult to call.

Another reason is that the ATP Madrid event hadn't begun at the same time as the WTA one and so it is natural that there are fewer selections anyway.

Things look different on Tuesday 4th May and I do like the look of a number of matches on this day.

Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: A run to the Final in Istanbul and two solid wins in the main draw in Madrid will have given Elise Mertens plenty of belief in her ability to perform on the clay courts. However this is not a surface on which she has been able to produce her best tennis consistently and now she will be facing an opponent who is not only one of the best players on this surface on the WTA Tour, but one who has gotten the better of Mertens in their head to head.

Simona Halep is the current World Number 3, but she is entering one of her favourites part of the season. In general you would describe Halep has an all-court player, but her most consistent tennis has been played on the clay courts and she has looked strong in her two wins in Madrid after reaching the Stuttgart Semi Final.

I have little doubt that Halep will go into the French Open as one of the favourites, but this is still a match in which she will have to work hard to win. The serve has largely been working well for Halep, but the Romanian will be well aware of the returning qualities of Mertens which should fashion some break points for the latter and at least help her try and remain competitive.

Returning on the clay courts has been a huge strength for Simona Halep too and since 2017 she has produced four seasons in a row on this surface when she has won at least 50% of return points played in clay court matches. That is always going to exert a lot of pressure on opponents and it has been evident already this week having won two of the four sets played without losing a game.

Neither of these players have a dominant first serve, but the key for Simona Halep and Elise Mertens is to not allow the other to see too many second serves. That side of their tennis is going to be attacked by the other, but I do think Halep is the stronger all around player on the surface and also has the mental edge thanks to a 4-1 lead in their head to head matches.

The three previous head to head matches on the clay courts have all been won by Simona Halep and all in relatively routine fashion by the former World Number 1. Elise Mertens has really struggled in those matches and the numbers back that up with the Belgian struggling to protect the serve and not being able to get into the Halep service games as well as she would have liked.

There was at least some competitiveness to the last match they have played against each on the clay courts of Prague in 2020, but Simona Halep was still a fairly comfortable winner. I expect breaks of serve in this one for both players, but for Simona Halep to eventually showcase her superior comfort on the clay courts and break down Elise Mertens for a win and cover.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: After being a pretty solid, but unspectacular, clay courter, Aryna Sabalenka looks to have taken the next step in her development on the red dirt. We only have a small sample of matches played in 2021 on the clay, but Sabalenka reaching the Final in Stuttgart and producing two strong wins in Madrid should not be overlooked.

The run in Stuttgart is particularly impressive for the one-sided Semi Final win over Simona Halep, while Sabalenka took the first set against Ashleigh Barty before the former French Open Champion turned things around. While I have no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka will have been frustrated with her performance in the last two sets of the Final against Barty, I do think the Belarusian has picked up some valuable confidence and has looked really strong this week.

She takes on Jessica Pegula who has not really shown a lot of confidence when playing on the clay courts. A strong 2021 to this point is encouraging for Pegula, but there has been little clay court tennis played and her previous record on the surface offers little encouragement.

The win over Sorana Cirstea in the First Round is impressive considering Cirstea has won a title on the surface this season, but this is another level being stepped up by Jessica Pegula and she knows full well how tough it can be to beat Aryna Sabalenka on the clay before.

Last Autumn, Sabalenka crushed Jessica Pegula at the French Open for the loss of four games and she dominated the return of serve.

Jessica Pegula served well in her first win on the clay, but she did not return as well as she will need to in this match and I do think Sabalenka can put her under immense pressure in this Third Round match. It will be close with this spread being a pretty big one, but the Belarusian looks in very strong form and can get over the mark in a win.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jan-Lennard Struff @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (April 29th)

I needed a few days off from the Tennis Picks and wrote that I would be back when the Madrid Masters comes around.

Frustration was getting the better of me with so many selections seemingly ending on the wrong end of every bit of bad luck I could think of. That was only made worse because those were the good selections and I wasn't getting any luck by getting away with the bad selections.

That adds up in a negative spiral and that is when taking a step back and looking for things to be reset is the best policy and especially in a long Tennis season.

The WTA side of the Madrid Masters begins on Thursday and I am looking for a positive start to the tournament which can give me something to build upon.

2021 has not been a very good season to this point, but things can turn around quickly and I am just looking for a touch more fortune behind the Tennis Picks.

I will update the Season Totals and place that down in either the Friday or the Saturday thread for the Tennis Picks, but hopefully there will be some positive signs immediately out of this tournament.

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Jill Belen Teichmann: A tight loss in the Stuttgart Semi Final will have offered Elina Svitolina encouragement having played pretty well in a loaded tournament. The clay courts may not be her favourite surface, but the Ukrainian is pretty effective on all surfaces and she will be looking for a strong run in Madrid.

The clay courts in this City tend to play pretty fast compared with the ones we will see in Rome and Paris in the next few weeks and that is much to do with the altitude which sees players hit through the courts. That may be a problem for Elina Svitolina, but she should still have too much for Jill Belen Teichmann who is playing her first clay court match of the season.

Jill Belen Teichmann has been comfortable on the clay courts in the past so she is one player that can't be dismissed easily. However, the last time we saw Teichmann she was withdrawing from a match with an injury and it was a difficult match up for her against Elina Svitolina when these two met on the clay courts in Strasbourg in 2020.

Now she is going up against an Elina Svitolina who has been serving pretty well in her limited time on the clay and one who can exert plenty of pressure with her return. That side of her game looked in good shape in Stuttgart and was the key in Svitolina's wins over Angelique Kerber and Petra Kvitova and this is a match that is largely a step down from that kind of level.

When these two played in Strasbourg, it was Elina Svitolina who more than doubled the amount of break points created than Jill Belen Teichmann. I expect it is going to be a key part of this First Round match in Madrid too and I think Svitolina can get the better of things which will give her every chance to cover what looks a big mark.

It can be hard to trust Elina Svitolina who can play hot and cold within a match, but her World Ranking has largely come about thanks to her ability to win matches like this one. I would expect Jill Belen Teichmann to have her moments, but a lack of recent competitive tennis could go against her in this opener in Madrid.

Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: Two Qualifiers have the chance to pick up some vital World Ranking points when they meet in the First Round in Madrid and both Laura Siegemund and Kateryna Kozlova have to be confident in their chances. Both were pretty dominant winners in their opening two matches in Madrid, although Kozlova came through with consecutive straight sets wins compared with Siegemund who needed three sets in her Second Qualifying Round match.

That extra set meant Laura Siegemund had to spend an extra thirty minutes on the court winning that match, but I don't expect it will be too much of an issue with this First Round match scheduled for the afternoon. It should mean there is enough recovery time for a player who has been confident on the clay courts throughout her career and who will be expecting to put up plenty of wins in the weeks ahead.

Laura Siegemund was beaten by Ashleigh Barty in the Second Round in Stuttgart, a tournament she has won before, but that is not a loss that will hurt the confidence. The German should also take heart from the fact that Barty went on and won the tournament and Siegemund is someone who has consistently had decent numbers on the clay.

That consistency was on display in her two Qualifying wins, while Kateryna Kozlova has only recently returned to competitive action having been off the Tour since the French Open last September. Unsurprisingly it has been a relatively low-key return to the Tour for the Ukrainian, but Kozlova has previously reached the Third Round in Madrid having Qualified for the tournament when doing that in 2019.

However, it should be noted that Kateryna Kozlova has not shown nearly the same kind of level on the clay courts on a consistent basis as Laura Siegemund has.

Laura Siegemund has also won the last three matches between these players and two of those were on clay courts as the former dominated the break point chances and eventually secured two easy looking wins on the scoreboard. The faster clay courts should make Kateryna Kozlova a little more dangerous, but Siegemund has enjoyed the match up and I think she is looking in good enough nick to find a win and a cover.

Ana Bogdan + 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: Two more Qualifiers are perhaps feeling happy with a draw that sees them take on another Qualifier and the chance to put some World Ranking points on the board they may not have otherwise earned. The time that Ana Bogdan has spent on the court compared with Anastasija Sevastova might be a concern, but the younger player has a winning record against Sevastova and Ana Bogdan has always made life difficult for her too.

They have twice met on the clay courts and split those matches 1-1, while a couple of months ago Ana Bogdan beat Anastasija Sevastova on the hard courts in Australia in preparation for the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season. The first of the clay court matches was dominated by Bogdan, but the more recent one saw Sevastova come through a tough three setter and I believe this one is going to be another competitive First Round match.

Over the last couple of years Ana Bogdan has shown she has all of the tennis needed to be a solid clay court player and she had a good run in Istanbul already this season. The numbers have backed that up, although Bogdan would love to get a little more out of the serve so her return can really take over matches.

Anastasija Sevastova is a solid clay courter in her own right and she is a former Madrid Semi Finalist which has to be respected, but her form over the last year has been inconsistent to say the least. Two Qualifier wins will have given Sevastova confidence, but the Latvian has been beaten by Caty Mcnally on the surface this season and I do think she is a vulnerable favourite here.

The serve has been a touch more reliable than Ana Bogdan's serve and that may be important, although I do think the latter is the better returner. The four matches played by Sevastova this season has seen her return looking in good shape, but it is a small sample and I do think Ana Bogdan has shown more consistency on that side of her game.

This one going three sets will not be a big surprise, but I do think Ana Bogdan can edge past her higher Ranked opponent. She should hold the mental edge and I think Bogdan might just be the superior clay courter of the two at this stage of their careers.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ana Bogdan + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 10th)

What can I say about this week? It really could not have gone a lot better with another strong showing on Thursday helping the Tennis Picks move the numbers into a very good spot and almost definitely meaning another winning week.

To be honest it is the first really good week I am having since the Tour moved to the clay courts, but it comes at a good time with the Rome Masters next up and then all packing up and ready to get to the French Open. Hopefully it is a positive sign that the remaining month of the clay court season is going to be as positive as previous years have been and putting up some real profits to move the 2019 season in potentially being the best one I have recorded here.

On Friday I am just placing the selections from the Quarter Final matches and Semi Final matches in this thread without the full analysis. I've just had one or two things scheduled which has made it very difficult to write out fuller thoughts this week, but I am hoping those are going to be clearing up in time for the Rome Masters and most definitely before the French Open begins on Sunday 26th May.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 18-5, + 21.90 Units (46 Units Staked, + 47.61% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 9th)

The Tennis Picks really came through for me on Wednesday as seven of the nine selections returned as winners which has put the week in Madrid in a very strong position.

We are into the Third Round of the ATP Masters tournament being played here and the Quarter Final of the WTA Premier Event and it is another busy day in Madrid. At least it is not going to be as windy as it was on Wednesday which should mean better tennis can be played by those going onto the court.

One player who won't be there is David Ferrer who was beaten in the Second Round by Alexander Zverev. That result had more implications than seeing the latter moving through to the Third Round as David Ferrer called time on his career, a wonderful career where he has wrung every ounce of potential from his game and gone even further.

Not many would have predicted David Ferrer would be a mainstay of the top 50 of the World Rankings and he was always humble enough to describe himself as the 'worst player to ever make the top 100' of the World Rankings. However hard work and a sheer stubborn determination saw Ferrer reach a Major Final at Roland Garros and he made the Semi Final of all four of the Majors which is a remarkable achievement from someone who was not expected to hit the heights in the spot.

David Ferrer was both unfortunate and fortunate to be in this era alongside Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and I do think he would have been a Major Champion if playing ten to fifteen years earlier. I don't think the Spaniard will regret competing with some of the names that will go down in Tennis history and Ferrer earned the respect of all his peers.

I liked him a lot as a player and he seems like a decent person off the court too. It has been clear for some time that David Ferrer is not the player he was, but he can be proud of his achievements and I hope he enjoys a well deserved retirement.


After a very strong Wednesday the key is to not give anything back to the layers. Adding to the winners and keeping the week's numbers moving in the direction they have been in the last three days is the aim for Thursday and my selections can be seen below from the matches scheduled to be played through another long day in Madrid.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: In recent weeks Stan Wawrinka has been speaking about getting back to his best on the tennis court after injuries have been slowing him down in the last couple of years. The Swiss player is very comfortable on the clay courts, but those injuries meant he had a very difficult time on the surface in 2018.

Those difficulties look to be behind the former French Open Champion who has won a couple of matches here in Madrid to get through to the Third Round. Stan Wawrinka was beaten pretty early on in Monte Carlo, but he was an unfortunate loser to Marco Cecchinato and in general it feels like he is playing closer to the levels he was producing on the clay courts before being bitten by the injury bug.

Make no mistake that this is a real test to see where Wawrinka is with his tennis when he takes on Kei Nishikori who needed to dig deep to come through in straight sets in his opening match here. The Japanese star is a very good clay court player and he has been serving well, but Wawrinka can put some real pressure on him if he continues serving at the level he has been with a 90% hold number on the clay in 2019.

Last year it was the problems on the return of serve that really held Wawrinka back, but he been in pretty good nick in his four clay court matches played so far this time around. While the 29% break number is higher than previous years, it is much more like Wawrinka's performances prior to 2018 on the clay and I do think this is a player on the up.

The head to head has not seen these two players meet too many times on the clay courts- in fact their first match against each was on the clay, but the last nine have been played on other surfaces. Even then you have to respect the fact that Wawrinka has won the last two matches between these players with the most recent being in February 2019 and I do think that will help him to mentally stay checked into this match.

It is a big match for two players who will feel the French Open gives them a chance to go deep in the tournament and so a statement win can only add to the belief they will have in Paris. The current performances of Stan Wawrinka have been slightly higher than Kei Nishikori on the clay courts and coupled with the two wins earned over this opponent over the last nine months I do think Wawrinka is the right player to back.

Both players only have a small sample on the clay courts in 2019, but I think Stan Wawrinka might be the superior player on the surface and can underline that belief by winning this match and covering the number.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: Fans in Rome and Paris have to be looking forward to the next month as they get to see Roger Federer back on the clay courts after a three year absence and those levels of excitement might be going through the roof judging by the reception the superstar had in Madrid. Roger Federer was cheered loudly throughout his win over Richard Gasquet as he played his first clay court match since losing to Nick Kyrgios here in 2016 as he looked to make the best decisions to extend his career.

To be fair to Federer those decisions have worked out as he has won a couple of Majors since then, but he admitted he missed playing on the red dirt. The knee issues which first made him think about giving up the clay portion of the season are behind him now and Federer looked like he had never been away when dismissing Gasquet in the Second Round.

It might have helped facing an opponent who had not played any tennis in a number of months, but that is not going to be the case on Thursday when Federer faces the enigmatic Gael Monfils.

The Frenchman will be looking to earn a measure of revenge for his compatriot and he showed some heart by coming from a set down to beat Marton Fucsovics in the Second Round. It was an impressive win over an ever improving player and Monfils will have been given a real shot of confidence for finding his way after a very poor opening set.

However Monfils has been needing his return of serve to be firing at a very strong level for him to come through his matches and I think that is not going to be easy for him against Federer. Everyone knows how good the Federer serve can be and that is the same case even on the clay, while the conditions in Madrid do tend to favour him even more than those in Rome and Paris.

The return of serve is perhaps in decline which is preventing Federer from being as dominant as he once was, but he should enjoy facing a Monfils serve which is being held at 74% of the time on the clay courts in 2019. That number is from a small sample, but Monfils had the same number in 2018 and I do think Federer is going to have enough chances to win this match and also cover the number.

The last time Federer and Monfils met in a professional match also came on the clay, but it was back in 2015. In their six previous clay matches Federer has held 87% of his service games while Monfils has held 72% of his own. Those numbers are pretty similar to their overall numbers on the surface and I will look for Federer to win and get the better of this spread.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: If you're a fan of tennis you are going to appreciate what you are seeing whenever Simona Halep and Ashleigh Barty meet on the court. Both players may not be the tallest or the strongest on the Tour, but they have plenty of pop off the ground and can play the kind of defence that is going to frustrate the life out of opponents.

Both players are also going to be tough to beat on the clay courts if their current form is anything to go by. Simona Halep might be the best clay courter in the world as far as the WTA side of the Tour goes and the defending French Open Champion is laying down a marker for her rivals with the way she has dismantled the three players she has faced so far in Madrid.

Only Johanna Konta got really close to pushing Halep, but the second set was a breeze for the Romanian who has won four of her six sets so far this week by scores of 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0.

Ashleigh Barty is continuing to push her way up the World Rankings and the top ten Ranked Australian is not going to be offering as little resistance as Halep faced in those sets. She fought back from a set down to win her last match and Barty has not dropped more than two games in any of the six sets she has won in Madrid. The only difference is that Barty has lost two sets on her way through the draw compared with Halep's run of straight sets wins and I do think that there is a clear difference between the abilities of these players on the clay.

Where Barty is a very good clay court player, Halep is exceptional and I think that makes the difference in what should be a fun match. The former World Number 1 is winning 60% of return points so far this week which is 10% higher than what Barty has been able to do and I do think this is a match that will feature a number of breaks of serve with both players having success.

However I do have a little more trust in Simona Halep being able to break in a couple of games more than Barty over the course of this match. In their head to heads it is Halep who leads 2-1 and she has created more break points in all three of those matches. The surface should favour her even more than those three previous hard court matches and Ashleigh Barty is 0-5 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the red dirt.

The Australian has only taken one set in those defeats and I am looking for Halep to produce a big performance to move into yet another Semi Final in Madrid.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 12-4, + 13.40 Units (32 Units Staked, + 41.88% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 8th)

I have to admit I have not really had the time to write down my thoughts for the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters this week and a long weekend caught up with me on Tuesday when I decided to have an early night.

The research side of things was completed and you can see my selections from the Second Round ATP and Third Round WTA matches to be played on Wednesday. It is the busiest day I am going to have of the week so far with a number of matches fitting into where I would want them.


MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.02 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 7th)

It has been a very good start to the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters with the Monday selections finishing with a 4-1 record.

I was hoping to write out a fuller thread for the Tuesday picks, but time has been an issue and instead I will play my selections below.

The rest of this tournament should be easier for me to write a few words out for some of the selections being made as I search for my first really strong week of results from the tournaments being played on the clay courts this season.


MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 5.02 Units (10 Units Staked, + 50.20% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 6th)

The last Tennis Picks I made came from the week where the ATP Barcelona tournament was made and it was a difficult week on what is usually my favourite surface to watch tennis and make my selections.

Last week the weather played havoc in the events scheduled so I decided to wait until the Madrid Masters began before I would get back on the horse and look to rebound from the poor week. The next two weeks are very important to the top names to make a statement ahead of the start of the French Open later this month.

All of the top names are here in the first of two tournaments played on the clay where the ATP and WTA events are going on alongside each other. The same will happen in Rome before the Tours go their separate ways in the final week before the start of the French Open which is now less than three weeks from getting underway.


You can see my first selections from the Madrid tournament below. From the Tuesday thread through the rest of the week I should have analysis of a few of the selections being made, but for Monday it is simply going to be a list of my picks from the day's play.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 49.30 Units (607 Units Staked, + 8.12% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 11th)

Things could have looked a lot better with a little more luck on my side at the Madrid Masters, but I've also been guilty of some poor Tennis Picks from the tournament.

The tournament enters the final three days of action with the majority of the Tour already focused on the next big event in Rome which begins this weekend. With both events a big chance to lay down a marker for the French Open, we are beginning to separate those who could be contenders from those who are pretenders.

It has been a little difficult to find the time to write the full analysis as I would like, but I have done the required research for the Tennis Picks on Friday which can be found below.

MY PICKS: Kiki Bertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 7-8, - 3.92 Units (30 Units Staked, - 13.07% Yield)