NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2022- Game 1-4
The First Round of the NBA PlayOffs largely lacked much drama with none of the Series needing a Game 7 and upsets missing too.
While that will mean a slow start to the post-season for the casual fans, it does mean we are ready for some big Conference Semi Final games and all four of the Series set for this Round look like they could produce fireworks.
My feeling is that the Boston Celtics will find a way to get past the defending Champions Milwaukee Bucks in the standout Conference Semi Final Series, while I expect the Number 1 Seeded Miami Heat to be waiting for them in the Eastern Conference Finals.
On the Western Conference side of the bracket, the Phoenix Suns are going to have to battle very hard to see off the Dallas Mavericks and that could be a Series that needs six or seven games before a winner emerges.
The Golden State Warriors are looking more like the team that have won three NBA Championships in recent years, but I do think the scrappy Memphis Grizzlies will give them a tough test. Redemption will be on the mind of the Warriors though having been dumped out of the PlayOffs in the Play In Tournament at home by the Grizzlies in 2021 and I think Golden State's experience may see them move into another Western Conference Finals under Steve Kerr.
These are my feelings right now, but we all know how quickly the outlook of a Series can change through injury- Joel Embiid is the big name that will be missing early in the Conference Semi Finals, while we have seen plenty of stars lost in recent years in the post-season.
Hopefully Series are decided on talent and execution rather than injury this year and I am looking forward to the games coming up in this Round.
Sunday 1st May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The defending Champions Milwaukee Bucks needed five games to see off the Chicago Bulls in the First Round of the PlayOffs and will be feeling pretty good about themselves. However, even the Bucks would have to admit that the injury-riddled Bulls were never going to have the depth to keep up with Milwaukee and now the standards are raised by a couple of levels.
It was a solid First Round win for a team who lost Khris Middleton to injury- he is expected to mis the Conference Semi Final Series too- and the Bucks have some momentum going into this Round with three wins in a row behind them.
In saying all that, the most impressive First Round performance was produced by the Boston Celtics who crushed the Brooklyn Nets on their way to sweeping one of the pre-season favourites out of the PlayOffs. So many teams decided they would look to avoid playing the Nets in the First Round of the post-season, but Boston almost asked for the challenge and the reward is home court in the Conference Semi Finals.
That has to be a factor considering all four regular season games between these teams were won by the home team, while the intensity of the Boston Celtics Defensive schemes have been tough for teams to break down. Robert Williams III is back in the rotation and the Boston Celtics will feel they have a good chance of containing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday knowing a scorer like Khris Middleton is on the sidelines.
Containing Giannis is the best the Celtics can really hope fo knowing that the superstar will be aggressive and likely to get to the bucket. Throwing different players in front of him will just get Antetokounmpo thinking and the key is to make sure he is working hard on the Defensive side of the court to try and wear him down.
You have to expect it will be a big test for this Milwaukee Bucks Defense with Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown in exceptional form through the First Round. Jayson Tatum in particularly has been elevating his basketball to match the very best players in the League and outplaying Kevin Durant will give any player the confidence to go on and perhaps even lead the Celtics to a Championship.
It does feel like the Celtics will be a touch more confident with the role players around their stars and I do think the way they have been pushing the intensity on the Defensive side of the court will be key to the outcome of this Series.
Favourites in Game 1 in the Conference Semi Finals have struggled in recent times, especially those that have been favoured by fewer than 6 points like the Boston Celtics are. However, home teams have opened this Round with a 12-7-1 record in the last twenty in this setting and the fact that the Celtics won by good margins in their two home games against the Bucks has to be a boost in the belief of the home team.
The loss of Khris Middleton did not impact the First Round against the Chicago Bulls, but I do think it will hurt in this Series with the Boston Celtics who are considerably stronger than the Bulls.
The Celtics have covered in their last four at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Add in the fact that the Bucks are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven road games when set as the underdog and Boston's strong recent record as the home favourite and you do have to give the edge to the Celtics in Game 1. The rest between the end of the First Round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets and this opening game of the Conference Semi Final Series could be a concern when it comes to rhythm, but Boston are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five when playing with three or more days rest between games.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 1 Pick: The last First Round Series that had to be completed was the Memphis Grizzlies win over the Minnesota Timberwolves and that means they have had very little time to return home and begin preparation for the Conference Semi Finals.
While it is not idea, the Grizzlies showed plenty of heart and determination in winning Game 6 on the road at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The preparation time is not ideal, but the Grizzlies should be in a good rhythm and playing at home will help with the intensity they are going to need against the Golden State Warriors.
Last season a young Memphis team upset the Golden State Warriors in the second Play In Tournament game to enter the First Round of the PlayOffs so they will know they are capable of beating this opponent. Of course Golden State are much healthier than they were a year ago, but the Grizzlies have also won three of the four regular season games between them this season, including both played at home.
The last of those was played in late March and Memphis won by 28 points, but Golden State played that one without their top three players, the core of the team that won multiple Championships for the Warriors. Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Steph Curry will all be playing in Game 1 and the team look to have momentum behind them having beaten the Denver Nuggets in five games in the First Round.
Steve Kerr is a smart Head Coach and he will know that the challenge in the Conference Semi Finals is much tougher than facing a Nuggets team that have been missing key players and perhaps overachieved this season. This time Golden State are facing a Memphis team that play with a lot of belief in one another and one that will be battle-hardened after the challenges of the First Round.
The ability around the boards could give Memphis a real chance in this Series, especially against the new death lineup being used by the Warriors. The bigger question is whether Memphis can find the right plays Defensively to shut down Golden State having given Minnesota some long hot streaks from the field in the First Round.
It does seem the public are firmly behind the Warriors in Game 1, but I think being in the PlayOff mode that the Memphis Grizzlies are in after their Game 6 win in the First Round will give them every chance of the upset. Home underdogs are rare in the Conference Semi Finals, while Number 2 Seeds being given points in this Round of the PlayOffs have a solid 19-9 record against the spread in the last seven years.
I am going against the trend that small favourites have struggled in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals with my Boston selection, but teams favoured by fewer than 6 points are on a 3-16-1 run against the spread.
Golden State have played well off a long rest like the one they enjoyed before Game 1, but they are 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen road games against a team with a winning record. They are also a team that have not always been at their best when favoured by fewer than 5 points this season.
They are also facing a Memphis team who have been strong at home and who have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six as the home underdog. The Grizzlies have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five when hosting the Golden State Warriors and I do think the points can be taken in this opening game.
Monday 2nd May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: Both of these Eastern Conference teams are expected to enter the Conference Semi Final Series without key players, but you cannot ignore the fact that the bigger impact is clearly going to be on the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid has been ruled out indefinitely, although the feeling is that he will be back in Game 3 when the Series moves to Philadelphia, but his absence is a big blow as the 76ers will be looking to escape South Beach with at least a split of the first two games.
The 76ers are fresh off a 4-2 win over the Toronto Raptors, although they had been 3-0 ahead in the Series and the extra games have proved costly. It was during a Game 6 blowout that Joel Embiid picked up his injury, although Head Coach Doc Rivers has made it clear that there are no regrets about keeping his starters in the game for as long as he did.
Ultimately he will be judged for that decision based on how this Conference Semi Final Series develops and the 76ers have a tough task in front of them.
The Miami Heat completed the gentleman's sweep of the Atlanta Hawks and have had a few days to rest players and hope they can return. Kyle Lowry does look like he will be missing again, but Jimmy Butler is expected to be in the line up having missed the Game 5 win over the Hawks.
The rest has helped and Tyler Herro is another expected to return and I do think the Miami Heat are going to be tough to beat in the first two games without Joel Embiid.
This season the Philadelphia 76ers have a 6-8 record without Embiid in the line up, but one crumb of comfort has to be the fact that they were able to beat the Miami Heat in one of those games. James Harden was also missing in that win, but that was a game played at home and the 76ers are 2-5 in road games without Embiid.
Philadelphia have been blown out by double digits in three of those five road losses, while the Miami Heat are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six at home against the 76ers.
Both teams have put some strong trends together and both have played well Defensively to believe this could still be a competitive Game 1 even without the star player for the road team on the sidelines.
Home teams have improved to 13-8-1 against the spread in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals, while favourites of at least 6 points are 12-7 against the spread in the last nineteen in that situation.
I can't ignore the fact huge home favourites of at least 7 points have struggled in the Conference Semi Finals, but I think the Miami Heat will be able to put their foot down in the first game of this Series. The 76ers could rally without Joel Embiid, but I think the Miami Heat will be able to take over in the Fourth Quarter and pull away for a good win to open.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 1 Pick: There were some serious concerns that injuries to key players were going to be very hard to overcome for the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. The Mavericks missed Luka Doncic for three games, but they were still able to beat the Utah Jazz 4-2 in their Series, while Devin Booker missed a game for the Phoenix Suns in their own 4-2 win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
Thankfully for both the Mavericks and the Suns, both Luka Doncic and Devin Booker are now well rested for the Conference Semi Finals between the Number 4 and Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
All three regular season games were won by the Phoenix Suns to give them a mental edge, but the Dallas Mavericks are much improved since deciding to trade away Kristaps Porzingis and their performance in the First Round was impressive. While Luka Doncic remains the man for the Mavericks, he is well supported by the role players and that makes the Dallas Mavericks dangerous.
However, you have to respect the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns who have played so well in the regular season and who rallied after taking some big shots from the New Orleans Pelicans. I think the Suns would be the first to admit that they need to be better in this Conference Semi Final Series if they are going to find a way through to another Western Conference Finals appearance, and I certainly think the Dallas Mavericks can make this very competitive.
Three point shooting will be key for the Mavericks who do tend to move the ball around and happy to have multiple players taking shots from outside the arc. It was an area the New Orleans Pelicans had success agains the Suns in the First Round, while the Mavericks will feel they have a better playmaker in Doncic that can find the open shooters.
The Mavericks will know this is a much tougher Series than the First Round, but they have been a very good underdog to back all season and I think they are getting a healthy amount of points in this one. Dallas are 10-2 against the spread when given at least 5 points this season as the underdog, while they are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen as the road underdog.
However, as much as Phoenix had their ups and downs in the First Round, this is going to be a game where Dallas will have to avoid allowing the Suns to pick up steam. The Utah Jazz shot horrifically in the First Round, but the Suns should have Devin Booker close to full fitness and have a player like Chris Paul who is smart enough to break down Defensive schemes and set up his team-mates for open shots.
Phoenix have been a very strong favourite to back, while they are a team who have played well off long rests as they prepare for their next game.
Still, you can't ignore how poorly favourites of less than 6 points have played in recent Game 1s of the Conference Semi Finals- thanks to both the Celtics and Warriors failing to cover on Sunday, those teams are now on a 3-18-1 run against the spread and I do think the Dallas Mavericks have enough shooting power to keep within this pretty big number.
This new look Dallas team has yet to be seen by the Suns this season and even those early games were competitive so I expect the Mavericks to be able to do a little more and remain within the number even in a losing effort.
Tuesday 3rd May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: The defending Champions may be without Khris Middleton, but if Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to play at his current level, the Milwaukee Bucks will feel they are more than good enough to win the NBA Championship again. Arguably the best player in the NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series and helped them to the upset and stealing home court advantage away.
Adjustments will be made from the Boston Celtics, who are extremely well Coached, and you have to believe they are going to show better Offensively. The Celtics had been well rested after sweeping the Brooklyn Nets, but that Series may not have prepared them for the hardened Milwaukee Bucks and I think both Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown understand how much better they will have to be if the Celtics are going to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Both struggled at both ends of the court, but you have to believe the Boston Celtics will be better Offensively and that should give them an opportunity.
One concern is that Marcus Smart is expected to be ruled out for Game 2 having picked up an injury a couple of days ago, while Brown has been dealing with a hamstring issue of his own. As far as the Celtics are concerned, Jalen Brown is still able to show explosiveness and Game 2 is much more about knocking down the shots having only managed 33% from the field in Game 1 and being dominated on the boards, while also having 18 turnovers to 13.
Much needs to be cleaned up, but I do think the Boston Celtics can bounce back in Game 2.
Milwaukee will feel they are playing with 'house money' having already won a game on the road, but this is a team that will not want to take their foot off the gas either. They won comfortably enough in Game 1, but the Bucks did not shoot the ball as well as they would have liked and I do think they will feel there is room for improvement here too.
I am still expecting a close, battling Series between the Celtics and the Bucks and much of that will depend on the home team bouncing back here.
Number 2 Seeds have been on a poor run trying to bounce back from a loss in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but home favourites of less than 7 points have a solid 12-4 record against the spread in Game 2 of the Semi Finals.
I am looking for the Celtics to bounce back and they do have a 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight following a loss.
All credit has to be given to the Milwaukee Bucks for the Game 1 performance, but I think there is more room for Boston to be better, even if Marcus Smart misses out. The Bucks are still 8-17 against the spread in their last twenty-five as the road underdog and they are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight against the Boston Celtics.
Getting off to a strong start will be important for Boston to show they are ready to compete, but I think they are going to be better in Game 2 and it may be enough to not only square this Series, but also to cover this spread with some late buckets.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 2 Pick: A late missed layup prevented the Memphis Grizzlies from stealing Game 1 from under the noses of the Golden State Warriors and ultimately has led to home advantage being dropped. It is vital for the Grizzlies to pick themselves up and go again in front of their own fans and at least level this Conference Semi Final Series before they head to the Golden State Warriors for two games.
Out of the two teams, the Memphis Grizzlies may be the one that actually feels they did perform to their usual level in Game 1. The shooting from the field was a little below par, while they were out-rebounded despite the fact that they won the battle on the boards against the Warriors in the regular season.
Things were much steadier for the Warriors that hit their averages for the season in terms of field goal percentage and three point shooting, although they will feel they are playing at a higher level now than through much of the regular season. The death lineup did just about enough to hang on to the win in Game 1 and Golden State have plenty of experience in the rotation who will know how to deal with their situation.
I do think the Grizzlies will be a little stronger, but they have to find a way to get a little more consistency out of their three pointing to knock off the Golden State Warriors. During the PlayOffs, Memphis have not really defended that three point arc as well as they would have liked and a team like Golden State will exploit the open shooter with a number of players capable of knocking down open looks.
A huge effort was put in by the Grizzlies in the Fourth Quarter of Game 1 and I do think the loss is going to sting and potentially has a hangover effect on the players with the Game 2 scheduled for Tuesday.
In the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, teams off a loss who are playing at home have responded very positively, but losing teams of less than double digits are on a 12-22 run against the spread in this Round. Add in the fact that road teams have gone 14-6 against the spread in the game after one that was decided by 3 or fewer points, and the Golden State Warriors have some recent trends right behind them as they look to move into a 2-0 lead.
Number 2 Seeds have struggled following a loss in recent times with those teams going 2-9 against the spread in their next game in the Conference Semi Finals too.
On Sunday I mentioned the trends that favoured the home underdog Memphis Grizzlies and those still apply having covered even in a losing effort. However, I do think the Golden State Warriors can build on that win and they may be able to take Game 2 behind a solid victory and a rare cover as as road favourite in recent games.
Wednesday 4th May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: The absence of Joel Embiid is clearly going to hurt the Philadelphia 76ers, but they can't hope to still be in the Conference Semi Final Series and have their star player back at top form if the 76ers are not able to perform better than they did in the opening game. Everyone involved with the 76ers have made it clear that excuses are not going to be good enough and Head Coach Doc Rivers will be looking for a big reaction from his players.
The expectation is that Joel Embiid could be close to a return when the Series moves to Philadelphia, but the players have to accept the fact that he is missing out and that means taking more responsibility for their own level of performance. Game 1 was a miserable effort all around from the 76ers who made just 18% of their three pointers attempted, while turnovers and allowing the Miami Heat a number of second chance points on the Offensive boards all factored in together for a big win for the home team.
Even then, the Miami Heat will feel there is plenty more to come from themselves too as they struggled from the three point line almost as much as the 76ers did. The Heat made 25% of their own shots from the distance and Jimmy Butler had a sub-par game compared to the standards he has set, while Miami will continue to be without Kyle Lowry.
The depth of the Heat rotation was another difference maker for the home team in Game 1 and they will feel they can continue to exploit the absence of Joel Embiid inside the paint. Miami had so much success on the Offensive boards and Bam Adebayo was able to do pretty much what he wanted to do in Game 1, but I do think there will be adjustments made to make sure he has to work harder than he did.
Tyrese Maxey and James Harden had a horrible outing in Game 1 and combined for 11/28 from the field and the two are going to have to be better. The 76ers were guilty of missing some open shots and they will also need more from Georges Niang who came off the bench and missed all seven shots taken, all from the three point range.
Philadelphia are well Coached, no matter what some feel about Doc Rivers, and they are 10-3 straight up following a loss in their last thirteen in that spot.
Underdogs of at least 7.5 points are 5-1 against the spread in the last six in that spot in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals Round when playing off a loss and I do think the 76ers can make the adjustments to keep this one closer than Game 1 ended up.
It is hard to trust the 76ers after watching them without Joel Embiid in Game 1 and especially when you think Miami did not have to be that good to win. However, I do think there is enough talent to believe the 76ers will be much better shooting the ball from the three point range and that alone could make the points count for the road team.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 2 Pick: A strong rally in the Fourth Quarter will have given the Dallas Mavericks some encouragement to take into Game 2 of this Conference Semi Finals, but it was frustrating for the Pick I made as a late foul helped the Phoenix Suns sink a couple of Free Throws in a 7 point win.
That allowed the Phoenix Suns to win and cover, but they are being set as similar sized favourite in Game 2. The majority of Game 1 was dominated by the top Seed in the Western Conference, but Chris Paul is a veteran who understands the swings in momentum that can occur within a Series and has been a little critical of the way his team performed to allow a big lead to slip away inside the final nine minutes.
Chris Paul had a pretty efficient game, but Devin Booker has room for improvement and the Suns will be hoping that he can rediscover the level shown in the regular season. Struggles from the three point line and an 11/25 showing from the field is not really going to be good enough from Devin Booker if the Phoenix Suns are going to reach the NBA Finals and go one step further than last season.
The bigger challenge is in front of the Dallas Mavericks though as they live and die by how well the role players perform- Luka Doncic had yet another huge PlayOff outing, but he was not supported and the Mavericks have wasted that big performance.
Dallas did dominate the boards, but turnovers were a problem and the Mavericks will have to shoot much better than 30% from the three point arc if they are going to make this a competitive Series. Luka Doncic has also spoken about not settling for the three point shot, but to attack the rim and try and earn better open looks from the distance, but they have struggled to match up with the Phoenix Suns all season.
The Suns also struggled from the three point mark, but they do look to have a stronger balance Offensively, which gives them the edge in this Series.
While the fight in the Fourth Quarter was good to see, it does mean Dallas are trying to battle against a trend in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons which has seen those losing teams go 12-22 against the spread in their next game following a loss by fewer than double digits.
If the Mavericks can make a faster start, this should be a competitive Game 2, but I do think the balance of the Phoenix Suns Offensively will be hard to shake off. Add in the expectation of an improved outing from Devin Booker and I think Phoenix may be able to take a 2-0 lead in the Series and be able to cover this mark.
Friday 6th May
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: Being back at home will obviously make a difference for the Philadelphia 76ers, but they have a big gap to bridge having been blown out by the Miami Heat in the first two games of this Conference Semi Final Series. There have been huge struggles at both ends of the court, while the status of Joel Embiid remains unclear.
For me it seems simple- I think the 76ers would not even be thinking of risking bringing Joel Embiid back if they were leading or at 1-1 in this Series and would likely have given him a couple more days to prepare. However, the desperation is clear after the 76ers were outplayed and out-hustled in both games on the road against the Miami Heat and it has become clear there is no way Philadelphia can win this Series without their best player.
While Doc Rivers has suggested that Embiid will miss out on Game 3, I think it is much more likely that he will suit up and it will give Philadelphia a boost both on and off the court.
James Harden has struggled with the Miami Defensive intensity forcing him into bad Offense and turnovers, while the 76ers have continued to struggle on the boards and allowed the Heat to pill clear in both games behind second chance points as they continue to pick up Offensive rebounds at a high rate.
Miami have won the two games in slightly different ways- in the first game they played pretty cleanly, but struggled from the three point range, while in the second win Miami did give up a few more turnovers, but were much more efficient from the three point range.
I would be surprised if Miami head to Philadelphia without preparing for the likelihood that Joel Embiid will play, but I still think they will want to play with a similar intensity to the first couple of games.
Defensively they have made it very difficult for the 76ers role players, although those should be able to shoot a little better at home with the fans behind them. However, James Harden continues to struggle for efficiency and the depth of the Miami rotation is hard to ignore having shown the different ways they can win games in this Series.
In general road teams have not been a good bet as the favourite in the Conference Semi Finals and we have seen the Golden State Warriors fail twice to cover in that spot already. However, road teams have been strong in Game 3 of the Conference Semi Finals and those are on a 14-6 run against the spread in this Round of the PlayOffs.
Teams that have won in Game 2 are also 10-3 against the spread in the last thirteen Game 3s played and I think the Miami Heat can be backed.
Keep an eye on news about Joel Embiid with the likelihood that the spread will be much tighter at tip off if he has suited up. Even with the superstar back to give the 76ers a boost, the Miami Heat have shown they match up very well with this opponent and Number 1 Seeds are now 16-7 against the spread in their last twenty-three games off a win in the Conference Semi Finals.
Number 4 Seeds have slipped to 10-22-1 against the spread as the underdog in the Conference Semi Final Series with Dallas and Philadelphia failing to cover in all four games played this season. Add in the fact that those Seeds are just 6-19 against the spread playing off a loss and I think the Miami Heat can be backed to cover here with the match up they have had against the 76ers in this Series so far.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: The Phoenix Suns look much more like the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference through the first two games of this Conference Semi Final Series compared with the First Round, but that is because they have been healthier all around. A 2-0 lead to take to Dallas puts the Suns in a very strong position and they have dominated this opponent in recent times with all five games this season won by Phoenix.
None of those have really been that close and the Suns have now beaten the Dallas Mavericks in eleven straight games.
Of course you have to expect adjustments and some swings in any PlayOff Series, but things are not looking very good for the Mavericks. Game 2 was really worrying with Phoenix being able to do whatever they wanted on the Offensive side of the court, although it is almost impossible to expect the Suns to shoot at 64% from the field for a second game in a row.
However, even in Game 1 the Phoenix Suns were very efficient from the field with 51% success and I do think it is a concern for the Dallas Mavericks who have struggled to keep up. Luka Doncic has admitted that the Mavericks have to be a lot better Defensively if they are going to turn this Series around, but he has been attacked mercilessly by the Suns who have a number of ways to beat you.
Devin Booker had a much more efficient game last time out to lead the Suns with 30 points and they are looking to make Doncic work incredibly hard Defensively to wear him down when the games hit the Fourth Quarter.
Luka Doncic has done all he can on the Offensive side of the court and has totalled 80 points in the two losses in the Series, but he has been given very little support by the role players around him. Head Coach Jason Kidd has made it clear that someone has to step up and support Doncic if the Dallas Mavericks are going to make this a Series, but they are in a very difficult spot and Number 4 Seeds have struggled in the Conference Semi Final Series when they have begun to string the losses together.
I do think the role players will be better at home in the comforts that brings, but the Phoenix Suns will have to drop off from the level they have shown and it is hard to imagine they fall through the floor. The Suns are extremely well Coached and have long looked like they know exactly how to deal with the Dallas Mavericks and I think that makes it very hard to look past them in Game 3, although I do expect this one to be much closer.
The Mavericks have been much better at home than on the road, but this feels like a game that Phoenix Suns can win and take a firm grip of the Conference Semi Final Series, if they haven't got one already.
Both teams have performed well when the spread has been set in the - 2.5 to + 2.5 range this season, but Phoenix have been the more impressive with an 11-1 record against the spread in that spot.
There are a number of recent trends in Game 3 of the Conference Semi Final Series which favours the Phoenix Suns and I do think the Number 1 Seed can win in this pick 'em contest.
Saturday 7th May
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Pick: Both games in this Conference Semi Final Series have resulted in blow outs, but the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will meet at 1-1 when they head to the home of the defending Champions for two games.
The Bucks stole home court in Game 1, but the Celtics led from start to finish in a dominant Game 2 and are expecting to have Marcus Smart back in the line up.
Without Smart, the Boston Celtics actually allowed a more efficient shooting display from the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2, but one area where Milwaukee will feel the game was thrown away was with their three point shooting. The overall field goal percentage improved from 41% in Game 1 to 47% in Game 2, but Milwaukee hit just 18% of their three point shots compared with 35% and never really looked likely to get close to the Celtics.
A few more turnovers and much less success on the boards contributed to the bad defeat, but the Bucks will head home feeling like they have done what they set out to do- namely take away home court advantage.
It was always feeling like a tougher Series without Khris Middleton so it is key for Milwaukee to find someone to get their shot in stroke. Jrue Holiday is the one under most pressure and his numbers dipped significantly between games and that was the reason the Bucks were well beaten.
Boston may feel they made some adjustments of their own, but the feeling is that the Bucks underperformed when it came to their three point shot and that could be the entire key to the Series.
The Celtics were considerably better in Game 2 compared with Game 1 and found more consistency in their Offensive play, while Grant Williams gave them a huge boost off the bench. That is a factor that may be much harder to replicate on the road, while the Bucks may feel they will have a bigger impact from their own role players in what should be a close and competitive Game 3.
The layers are finding it hard to place this line- the public seem to be on the Bucks, but the spread has just narrowed since the opening and that suggests the sharp players may be backing Boston to regain home court.
I really can't call it- Milwaukee beat Boston at home twice in the regular season, but this feels a Series that may swing on which of the role players is able to step up and find a four game hot streak.
Recent trends in the Conference Semi Finals certainly favour Game 3 with the Boston Celtics off a win, but my feeling is that the layers may still be asking for a big total to be covered after back to back 'under' selections returned winners. The regular season games between the Bucks and Celtics were high-scoring, but Middleton's absence will dent that as will the natural PlayOff intensity that we are expected to see.
Game 3s have tended to be close run affairs with Defensive shapes having the right adjustments to keep things under the total and it is perhaps the reason those have gone 14-6-1 towards the 'under' in recent Conference Semi Final Series.
Number 3 Seeds in the Conference Semi Finals are also on a 23-8-1 run when it comes to the under/over and I think these two teams will be involved in another relatively low-scoring game barring the Celtics and Bucks both getting seriously hot from the three point line.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Game 3 Pick: There has been no love lost between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies who have split the first two games in this Conference Semi Final Series. While extra physicality is always expected in the PlayOffs, Flagrant Fouls that have come with automatic ejections have had an impact on the teams has occurred in each of the first two games.
Draymond Green was ejected from Game 1, but only picked up a fine, while most felt he was hard done by with the Flagrant 2 expected to be downgraded by the NBA, who ultimately decided against the obvious call.
In the next game, Dillon Brooks was rightfully ejected after a hard, dangerous foul on Gary Payton II and it is a foul that has led to a suspension for Game 3. Some of that may be down to the fact that Brooks has likely ended Gary Payton's season and that is a huge blow for the Golden State Warriors with their best match up against Ja Morant now absent.
I do think the absence of Dillon Brooks will hurt the Grizzlies, but they made enough adjustments to win Game 2 without him and that is important with the extra time to prepare for Game 3.
Ja Morant had a strong outing for the Memphis Grizzlies having missed the game-winning layup in Game 1, but the road team will also be well aware that Golden State are unlikely to shoot the ball as poorly as they did in Game 2. The injury suffered by Gary Payton II would have perhaps impacted the team and the focus may have been lost by the Warriors who made half the number of three pointers in Game 2 compared with Game 1 and hit just 18% of their shots from the distance.
You have to expect the likes of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry to be much stronger and I do think being at home is going to be very important for the Warriors. Memphis missing Dillon Brooks will hurt in this environment, while I do think the nature of the foul is going to fuel the Golden State Warriors to get the better of the Number 2 Seed.
However, you have to appreciate how competitive Memphis have been against the Golden State Warriors over the last couple of seasons. The injury to Gary Payton II may make things easy for Ja Morant to get to where he wants on the court and the Grizzlies can knock down the open looks that become available if the Warriors try and contain Morant.
The Grizzlies have also maintained a strong run the Number 2 Seeds have been on in the Conference Semi Finals when they have been set as the underdog. Those teams are now 21-9 against the spread in their last thirty games in that spot, while home favourites of at least 7 points have struggled to cover in this Round with the run at 19-29 against the spread.
There are a couple of Conference Semi Final trends in Game 3 which favour the Memphis Grizzlies too and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.
Sunday 8th May
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: It was a bad performance all around and the Conference Semi Final Series feels like it has come alive with the Dallas Mavericks handing the Phoenix Suns a loss. Most have to accept the fact that the Suns were largely to blame for their own issues as they committed far too many turnovers, with veteran Chris Paul handing seven over in the First Half alone and putting the Suns in a hole they could not dig out of.
There is a number of lows that the Suns have to handle before heading into this Game 4- the huge amount of turnovers, coupled with very few takeaways of their own left them vulnerable, while the Suns had one of their worst shooting days of the season. This is only the eighth time this season that the Suns have failed to score at least 100 points, while the 93 points in Game 3 is actually the lowest total posted.
Phoenix did win the battle on the boards in Game 3, but they allowed Dallas to earn a number of early Offensive boards which set the tone for the game. The quick transitions off turnovers also allowed the Mavericks to do what they like before the Suns could set their own Defensive shape and I think these all contributed to the outcome of the game.
Dallas will also be pleased to have seen others step up to take the pressure off of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson's return to form will be a huge encouragement for the Number 4 Seed. Being at home does help the role players out and I think the Mavericks can look to build on the performance in Game 3, but the Phoenix Suns are the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference for a reason and I am not sure they are starting a negative trend after the sub-par efforts in Game 3.
Instead I am going to be expecting the Suns to want to come out with more intensity, but with also a lot more care of how they handle the ball.
Chris Paul will be the first to admit that he cannot afford to produce Game 3 efforts regularly if the Suns are going to win a NBA Championship and I do think the veteran will have spent the last couple of days mentally preparing for one of his big PlayOff showings.
Number 4 Seeds have tended to struggle when they have been set as the underdog in the Conference Semi Final Series and they are now 11-21-1 against the spread in that spot. It is also up to Dallas to contain a Phoenix team who have bounced back to go 4-0 against the spread in their last four coming off a straight up loss and that includes winning twice after defeats to the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round.
Game 4 favourites in the Conference Semi Final Series have also been on a very positive run and I do think the Phoenix Suns are far better than what they showed in Game 3. Even then they were in the game and only lost by 9 points and you have to believe a much cleaner effort all around will help the Suns win and cover as they move into a 3-1 lead before heading home for the Game 5 contest later this week.
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: Once it was officially confirmed that Joel Embiid was going to be suiting up, the spread for Game 3 moved four points in favour of the Philadelphia 76ers who actually tipped off as the favourites. That underlines the importance of Joel Embiid and his return clearly had some impact on the home team who blew out the Miami Heat to move back to 1-2 in the Conference Semi Final Series.
Now they will be heading back out to try and level the Series before it moves back to South Beach and the Philadelphia 76ers are a slightly stronger favourite in Game 4 than they were a couple of days ago.
However, it would be a massive surprise if the Miami Heat are anywhere near as bad as they were on Friday. The Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference have a very deep rotation, but none of the players outside of Jimmy Butler was able to find their stroke and the Heat shot just 35% from the field and an awful 23% from the field.
They didn't win as many games as they did this season by having those nights regularly, but the Heat have to be a touch concerned that this is the second time in the Series that they have been at 25% or worse with their three point shooting. The presence of Joel Embiid made it harder to cover that shooting issue with their rebounding, but even then you have to think the Miami Heat will be better all around in this one after a totally underwhelming performance.
At the same time you do have to consider whether the Philadelphia 76ers can find their role players having prominent games as they did in Game 3. As expected, Joel Embiid offered a huge amount of effort without reaching his usual levels as he still overcomes injury and concussion issues, while James Harden and Tobias Harris have not been the most efficient in their play.
Those didn't have the best Game 3s themselves, but it was Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green who helped the Philadelphia 76ers pull clear for a big win. Those two players not only combined for 14/20 from the field, but they were 12/15 from the the three point range and the feeling is that they will likely fall back to the mean rather than having huge outings like that again.
Before Game 3, Maxey and Green had combined for 4/24 from the three point range and so there is a feeling this game will be much closer with an improvement expected from Miami and those two players likely to step back from the level shown on Friday. Playing at home does pump the blood and so I still think Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green can have good showings, but to be as efficient as they were in Game 3 is asking too much.
Backing a winner is not going to be easy- Philadelphia have the momentum, but the Miami Heat are not likely to be as bad as they were again.
Instead, I think this is going to be a game where we may see another 'under' hit the target.
That has been the case in six of the last eight between the 76ers and the Heat and that includes two of the three games played in the Conference Semi Final Series.
The 'under' has also been the victor in a large majority of recent games where the Heat have been set as the underdog and the 76ers have been set as the favourite respectively. Both teams have had a habit of going cold from the three point range and I think they have both shown strong Defensive intensity in the Series which could keep the total points under the current line.
Of course if they both get hot from the three point range in the same game it could be very dangerous, but I think Defensive schemes have largely been on top and a slower game could see the teams combine for fewer than the total set.
Monday 9th May
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 Pick: There was some real frustration in the Boston Celtics camp having felt the officials had too much influence in Game 3 and especially on what felt like a blown call at the end of the game. Instead of allowing Marcus Smart to throw three Free Throws when down three and seconds remaining, the referees decided the foul was not during a shooting motion and ultimately it cost the Celtics.
They still had a chance to push Game 3 into Overtime very late on, but the Al Horford bucket came too late as the buzzer was sounded and now the Number 2 Seeded Boston Celtics are down 2-1 in the Series.
As happy as the Milwaukee Bucks will be that they held on after blowing a big Fourth Quarter lead, it is clear that star player Giannis Antetokounmpo has not been convinced of the officiating himself. The feeling in the Milwaukee camp is that the Celtics are being too physical with the Greek Freak, but that has yet to be reflected with Giannis Antetokounmpo heading to the Foul Line at a high level and the Bucks are hoping that will change.
Being ahead in the Conference Semi Final Series is obviously a boost for the Milwaukee Bucks, but they know they are going to need to be better when it comes to the three point shooting to hold off the Boston Celtics. For a second game in a row they have struggled in that department and it contributed to allowing the Celtics to get back into Game 3 and only just fall short of winning and retaking home court advantage having lost that in Game 1.
It will be tough to bounce back from the effort they put into the narrow loss, but Boston have to feel they are still matching up well with Milwaukee and have deserved to be ahead in the Conference Semi Final Series. On the Defensive side of the court, the Celtics have been able to keep themselves in games and that is important if you have to expect them to be better on the Offensive side of the court, especially from three point range.
I am expecting a stronger effort and I am going to side with the sharp money which looks to have come in on Boston, at least early on.
They have been a solid road underdog to back, and the Celtics are 7-2 against the spread when playing off a loss, while they already covered a big spread off a loss in this Series.
Number 2 Seeds had been on a bad run when playing off a loss, but both the Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies have covered in the two spots we have had in the 2022 PlayOffs and I think Boston can do that again.
I have a lot of respect for the defending Champions, but they are still much more inconsistent Offensively without Khris Middleton and the three point shot has been an issue for the Milwaukee Bucks. With the Defensive intensity that has been shown by the Boston Celtics, I think they can continue to make tough for those Bucks that don't have Antetokounmpo written on the back of the jersey.
The expectation is that we have another tight game in the making, but this time I am going to back the Boston Celtics to make the big plays that allows them level the Series before it heads back to the TD Garden.
A couple of trends very much the position that the Milwaukee Bucks are in having won Game 3 and also hosting Game 4, as well as the fact that favourites have been on a good run in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Finals. Even then, I think the Celtics can be slightly better when it comes to the three point shooting and that may swing a tight Series back in their favour.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Game 4 Pick: A blowout win in Game 3 has given the Golden State Warriors the 2-1 lead in this Conference Semi Final Series and I do think they are the team to beat in the Western Conference despite being the Number 3 Seed.
It was almost a perfect game from the Golden State Warriors who did whatever they wanted to do on the Offensive side of the court, but it is a big ask for them to reach those levels consistently. In the first two games, the Warriors had been a mixed bag from the three point range, but their top players all found their stroke in Game 3 and contributed to the 142 points scored.
They are a bigger favourite in Game 4 compared with the last one, but that has as much to do with the Golden State performance as much as it has with the Ja Morant injury that is likely going to mean the Memphis Grizzlies will be without their best player. All of the signs point to Morant being absent for at least one game, but the injury picked up late in the blowout a couple of days ago may be one that sees him miss the rest of this season.
Dillon Brooks is back and his intensity will be important at both ends of the court, but I do think the Grizzlies will struggle for consistency without Ja Morant being able to break down the schemes in front of him. Others will try and step up without him, but even a returning Dillon Brooks is not going to make a lot of difference for the Grizzlies if Ja Morant is unable to suit up as expected.
The Grizzlies actually shot better in Game 3 than they did in the win in Game 2, but they were unable to stop the Golden State Warriors and that was a major problem for them. I do think Memphis have a better Defensive team than their last performance indicated, and Dillon Brooks returning will help, but I do think Memphis may also struggle to score with the consistency they may need to win this one.
Game 3 winners have improved their record to 10-2 against the spread in Game 4 in this Round of the PlayOffs with both Dallas and Philadelphia winning in that spot. Favourites also have a strong record in this pivotal middle game of the Series and I do think the Golden State Warriors may find the big shots to pull away in the Fourth Quarter and cover what is a huge line.
Big home favourites have not always been the best back in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but the Golden State Warriors look to have the momentum and they will be looking to complete the Series win as soon as possible so I expect them to remain focused.
Memphis have been able to rally throughout this season, but the test is considerably tougher without Ja Morant and I think the Warriors will win and cover.
MY PICKS: 01/05 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
02/05 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/05 Dallas Mavericks + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/05 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
03/05 Golden State Warriors - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
04/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/05 Phoenix Suns - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
06/05 Miami Heat - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/05 Phoenix Suns @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
07/05 Milwaukee Bucks-Boston Celtics Under 213 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
07/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/05 Phoenix Suns - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
08/05 Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat Under 207.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/05 Boston Celtics + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
09/05 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Semi Final Update: 5-9, - 4.45 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.79% Yield)
First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
