NBA PlayOffs 2024- Conference Semi Final Picks Game 1-4 (May 4-13)

There are two Game 6's to be played on Friday 3rd May, but two of the Conference Semi Finals have been set without needing a decider and teams will begin to smell an opportunity to win a NBA Championship.

Even now, it is very difficult to look past defending Champions Denver Nuggets and the team with the best record in the regular season Boston Celtics, but PlayOff Series can build the pressure and the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder really impressed through the First Round.

The exit of the Milwaukee Bucks has to be considered a positive for the Celtics and it does feel that their place in the NBA Finals is very much in their own hands- if Boston play well, they will be almost impossible to beat over a best of seven setting, but games are played on the court and not on paper and there was a similar inevitability about them last year before the Eastern Conference Finals defeat to the Miami Heat.

As with the First Round of the PlayOffs, the Conference Semi Final Picks will be placed in two threads with the first four games of the Series placed in this one.

NBA Conference Semi Final Picks- Games 1-4 (May 4th-13th)

Saturday 4th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Losing at the Denver Nuggets last month meant the Minnesota Timberwolves fell behind in the race to secure the top Seed in the Western Conference. The expectation was that the win for the Nuggets would mean the defending Champions secured the top Seed instead, but they suffered a surprising loss meaning they entered the PlayOffs as the Number 2 Seed.

It also means that the Nuggets and Timberwolves were in the same half of the Bracket on the way to the NBA Finals and this is perhaps a match up that the latter were hoping for more than Denver may have been.

The four regular season games were split with two wins apiece, and it should be noted that the two Minnesota wins were in blow out fashion, while the Denver Nuggets had to fight and claw for their two wins.

Ultimately the PlayOff experiences of the Denver Nuggets has to be a factor in this best of seven Series, as will the fact that they have the home court advantage.

They might not have been at their best in the First Round, but some of that may have been down to the Nuggets wanting to hide what they want to do the further they get into the PlayOffs. Beating the Los Angeles Lakers has been very common for the Nuggets over the last fourteen months and so they will have felt they did not have to be at their best, although the healthy of Jamal Murray is a potential concern.

On the other hand, Minnesota were in very strong form as they swept past the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves have long been making moves to be competitive against the Denver Nuggets, the leading team in the Western Conference. They have shown they can do that in the regular season and the Timberwolves may have enough Defensive intensity to give the Offensive players a chance to keep this one close.

Favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals are just 4-20-1 against the spread when asked to lay fewer than 6 points and the Minnesota Timberwolves can come out strong in this Series. Winning outright will not be easy for any team visiting Denver, but the Timberwolves have done that in the regular season and the momentum with which they beat the Phoenix Suns in the First Round can certainly see them ride to a very competitive Game 1 performance against the defending Champions on Saturday.

Monday 6th May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Both of these teams came through testing First Round Series against two Eastern Conference rivals that entered the season with big expectations.

Injuries hurt the Milwaukee Bucks at a bad time, while the Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps looking to make a real move towards a NBA Championship in twelve months time, but take nothing away from the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks who had to come through in six games.

Both will now feel a big opportunity is in front of them when they meet in this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series, although the Boston Celtics remain red-hot favourites to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

That is a matter for another day and the focus here is for the Pacers and Knicks to make a strong start when Game 1 is played at Madison Square Garden on Monday.

The Knicks are likely going to be favourites for the Series with their grizzled team being pumped forward by Jalen Brunson's huge PlayOff output. However, the Indiana Pacers have won two of three regular season games against the Knicks, including winning at The Garden in February, and this is a team that has plenty of Offensive firepower across the starting line up and bench to believe they can challenge New York.

Home favourites in Game 1 of the Semi Final Series have not had things all of their own way in recent times and the Denver Nuggets have already dropped the first game in their Series. The line has proved to be a key indicator as to how Game 1 is played out, but it is dropping as far as the host New York Knicks are concerned and the Indiana Pacers certainly look capable of keeping this one closer than expected.

Much will depend on how effective the Pacers are at closing down the shot window for those not called Jalen Brunson.

If they can do that, Indiana may have enough Offensively to keep the scoreboard ticking over and eventually this may lead to a narrow, tight, competitive game. It should come down to late in the Fourth Quarter, but the Pacers have shown they can match up well with this New York team and they may be worth backing with the points in Game 1 of this Conference Semi Final Series.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Two of the four Conference Semi Final Series will not have gotten underway when the Denver Nuggets look to rally against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 2.

The defending Champions have not been finding their best form in the PlayOffs, but were still able to ease to a 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round. However, they were well aware that they needed to be better when facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the Nuggets were not able to raise their game as they were well beaten at home in Game 1.

For the Timberwolves, it has continued a smooth start to the post-season with five straight wins and none of those have been particularly competitive. For much of this season it was clear that Minnesota were ready to take recent experiences and make the leap forward, but not many would have tipped up Anthony Edwards to have moved his game to the level where he has it right now.

It was his 43 points that sparked the Game 1 win, although Edwards will point out to some strong support from his team-mates as the Timberwolves eased to the victory. Adjustments have to be expected from the Denver Nuggets, especially in what feels like a very important spot before travelling to Minnesota to play Game 3 and 4.

Jamal Murray's calf issue is becoming a real concern and you can see it is limiting his impact, while also putting a bit more pressure on Nikola Jokic. The latter is likely going to be named regular season MVP again, but Jokic will want to be a bit more efficient than he was in Game 1 having scored 32 points, but only after throwing up 25 shots.

If Murray continues to be limited, some of the other players will have to step up for the Nuggets who found themselves in an early hole in the opening game. A faster start will be key and you have to expect much better from the defending Champions.

Home teams in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have really put on a clinic in recent times and they are 11-1 against the spread over the last three seasons. Those favoured by fewer than 7 points as hosts in Game 2 have put together a 16-4 run against the spread, while those who lost their previous game and are then playing at home have bounced back with a 19-8 record against the spread since The Bubble.

The Timberwolves do match up well with Denver and may feel they have a big opportunity to take a firm grip on this Series, but there may also be a feeling that they have done their job by at least splitting the first two on the road. With adjustments made for Anthony Edwards, the Denver Nuggets can at least bounce back and earn a win and a cover.

Tuesday 7th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: They have been amongst the favourites to win the NBA Championship all season, but the Boston Celtics have moved to the top of the queue and are just evens to pick up the title in June. It is going to build a bit more pressure on a core of players that know they will be considered 'failures' if they are not able to finally help the Celtics become NBA Champions again, and that may ultimately be the only factor that holds them back.

On paper the Celtics have looked the best team all season and they produced a dominant win over the Miami Heat in the First Round to avenge the Eastern Conference Finals defeat from last year.

They are now well rested ahead of the Conference Semi Final Series, while the opponent has just finished off a First Round Series needing a Game 7 victory at home.

The Cleveland Cavaliers looked to be heading out of the PlayOffs in the First Round for a second consecutive season when trailing in the first half of that Game 7 against the Orlando Magic, but did enough to rally. Home advantage proved to be the key in a Series where all seven games were won by the host, but this is a significant upgrade when it comes to challenges being faced.

Jarrett Allen has missed three games in a row and could have to sit again, while Donovan Mitchell is playing through an injury as he continues to lead the team. Some may feel that the Cavaliers have nothing to lose in this Series as the significant underdog, but making this competitive might be considered a success at this point.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, but they will feel they still have the depth to cover his absence with the hope he will be back for the Eastern Conference Finals.

Being rested might have slowed some of the rhythm, but Cleveland are going to have to overcome the historical trend of winning a Game 7 and then going into the next Series- those teams have tended to be on the losing side of Game 1 of the next Series, while both home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to be the ones likely to cover.

There is no doubt that this is a huge spread, but Cleveland were blown out in two of their three road losses against the Orlando Magic in the First Round. All four Boston wins over Miami were by at least 14 point margins in the First Round and the feeling is that the Celtics might be able to pull clear in the second half of this one against a banged up and potentially fatigued opponent.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: Jason Kidd has signed an extension to Coach the Dallas Mavericks moving forward and his team just fought through a First Round Series with the veteran loaded Los Angeles Clippers. The finishing touches on that Series were produced in Game 6 and the Mavericks have benefited from being given a bit of time to rest and recuperate ahead of a massive Conference Semi Final Series against the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

This rest period is key with Luka Doncic feeling his knee and admitting that he is fighting through the pain in the PlayOffs. The top Mavericks player has stated that he would have been resting and sitting out games in the regular season with the same issue and Doncic's health is going to be a key factor within this Series.

Tim Hardaway Jr was also banged up in the First Round, but the rest looks to have done him good and he should be suited up for Game 1. However, the Mavericks have lost a couple of key contributors with injuries suffered in the First Round and the depth of this Dallas team is going to be tested.

Experience may be something the Mavericks feel they can use to their advantage when preparing to face the Oklahoma City Thunder who have a young team that is breaking new ground.

However, any hope that the top Seed in the Western Conference may slip in the PlayOffs may have faded a little bit after the Thunder crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round. The feeling is that there is still more to come from this young team who have moved into third favourites to win the NBA Championship.

Oklahoma City will know they got the better of the Dallas Mavericks in three of the four regular season games, although the last of those was when the Mavericks were resting starters. Even so, the Thunder have that mental edge and they will feel they have the enthusiasm and the match ups on the court that should swing this Series in their own favour.

Small home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to struggle to cover and we have seen that twice already in this post-season when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers covered as smallish road underdogs.

That is something to keep in mind, but this Oklahoma City team may be able to just hassle the slightly banged up star player for the Dallas Mavericks and try and force Luka Doncic to get others to win the game. Kyrie Irving is capable, but the Mavericks will go as far as that tandem can carry them and this Thunder team may have the depth and energy to come through with a win and cover in Game 1.

Wednesday 8th May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: There were one or two controversial calls at the end of Game 1 which has left the Indiana Pacers frustrated as they were narrowly beaten by the New York Knicks. They had their chances to steal away home court, which would have added to the frustration levels, but there is no time to overthink matters and the Pacers will be looking to respond.

Adjustments have to be made when Game 2 is played at The Garden on Wednesday- the Pacers will want to find a way to get more out of Tyrese Haliburton who was restricted to just 6 points in Game 1, while the efficient shooting of the Knicks from the three point arc will have to be better managed.

Slowing down Jalen Brunson has been an issue for the teams in recent outings and he once again propelled the New York Knicks, although he was given good support in Game 1 to help overcome the first half deficit and earn the victory.

It was perhaps a surprise that the Knicks used a small rotation in Game 1 with the bench players not having much of an impact in the outcome. You have to imagine they will lean on those players a bit more in Game 2 with just a day of rest between these first two games in New York, while the Knicks will also be keen on making one or two adjustments to improve their Defensive effort.

If they can do that, the Knicks have to be very confident in winning Game 2 and taking a real grip of this Conference Semi Final Series before the move to Indiana. Over the last couple of seasons, New York have been very good at Madison Square Garden in the PlayOffs and so they will believe they can hold serve again.

A bigger question is whether the Knicks will cover in Game 2 having come up short in Game 1.

Hosts have been very strong at home in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals in recent years, but the Denver Nuggets fell in that spot on Monday. Teams that have lost on the road and playing again on the road have a 7-20 record against the spread in the last twenty-seven tries and those trends really work against the Indiana Pacers, who put in a huge effort to come up short in the opening game in the Series.

This is a significant spread, but hosts favoured by fewer than 7 points are 16-5 against the spread in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Final Series and this time the play is to back New York to make it 2-0 with a more convincing win than the first.

Thursday 9th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After crushing the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1, the Boston Celtics have only hardened as favourites to win the Eastern Conference.

There was so much to like about the Boston Celtics performance in the 25 point win, but the scary part for opponents is that the team will know there is also some room for improvement.

Jayson Tatum was not at his shooting best and the Celtics are still looking for a way to get their best player going, while they hit just 39% of their three point efforts. Jaylen Brown had a big outing and Derrick White is playing hugely influential and efficient minutes for the Celtics, but more might be ready to come from Tatum as teams perhaps try and lock Brown and White down and leave that much more room for the top player to exploit.

Adjustments will have to be made by the Cleveland Cavaliers if they are even going to make this a competitive Series, but they look to be worn down. Donovan Mitchell emptied the tank in Game 1, but he is clearly not at 100%, while the Cavaliers are really missing Jarrett Allen who was absent for the last game having missed several games at the end of the First Round Series against the Orlando Magic.

The support without Allen has not really been good enough and the Cavaliers have really struggled to compete on the road in the post-season when the role players tend to have a few more difficulties. Losing games is one thing, but Cleveland have suffered big road losses as the Defensive unit have slowed down and the Offensive firepower outside of Donovan Mitchell has remained inconsistent.

Once again the Boston Celtics are a big home favourite and those have not tended to be the best teams to back to cover lines above 8.5 points. However, Boston did that comfortably in Game 1 and even a slightly more efficient three point shooting day will make it very difficult to Cleveland to make enough adjustments to get this one much closer on the scoreboard.

Limited rest time between games does not favour the Cavaliers and teams who have been beaten by 15 or more points are just 7-14 against the spread in the last twenty-one games in that spot in the Conference Semi Finals.

Hosts in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have tended to be more focused when it comes to doing enough to cover the lines set and it is very hard to get in the way of this Boston team, even with the spread moving a couple more points wider than it was in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: There is much to admire about the way the Oklahoma City Thunder are able to put their Offensive rhythm together on the court, but this is a young team that is dealing with the PlayOffs as if they have a lot more experience than they actually do.

While the Offensive firepower will make the headlines, the Thunder are priding themselves on the kind of Defensive showings that saw finish amongst the elite in the NBA in the regular season.

PlayOffs do have a different feel, but the Thunder are showing maturity to continue to perform at the level they have and they have yet to give up more than 95 points in any of the five post-season games played. Even that tally was only reached by the Dallas Mavericks in a blowout win for the Thunder in Game 1 and the feeling is that this is going to be a very difficult Series for the Mavericks unless they can get very healthy, very quickly.

Luka Doncic did not want make excuses for his performance in Game 1, but it is clear that he is another superstar playing through the pain to try and lead his team. A 6/19 showing, which included going 1/8 from the three point arc, is not going to cut the mustard for Dallas if they are going to make a run in this Series and they will be hoping a day between games is enough time for Doncic to be much stronger.

It may be a forlorn hope with the Oklahoma City Thunder having the energy and the Defensive qualities to really make things difficult for not only Doncic, but also Kyrie Irving. The latter was more efficient in Game 1, but Dallas may not have the depth to compete with the Thunder if the Number 1 Seed maintains their high Defensive levels, which in turn is sparking them on the Offensive side of the court.

After narrowly winning their opening PlayOff game, the Thunder have rolled in their last two at home and they certainly have the momentum to take a firm grip of this Series.

As mentioned in the Boston Celtics Game 2 preview, teams playing behind a 15 plus point margin of victory have followed up with a very strong covering performance in their next game and the same situation applies for the Thunder. Game 2 hosts also have a strong covering record in recent years in the Conference Semi Final Series, while those favoured by fewer than 7 points have a 16-4 record against the spread in Game 2 of this Round before the Knicks try and beat the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.

Jason Kidd will make some adjustments and this is not expected to be a blowout again, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown they can get out in transition behind strong Defensive performances and that may see them edge past this line to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.

Friday 10th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: The 1990s saw the New York Knicks reach the NBA Finals twice, albeit falling short of a Championship each time, but it has been a long time since this fanbase can be as excited about a team as they can be now. After reaching the Conference Semi Finals last year, the Knicks have rallied for a 2-0 lead in the same Round over the Indiana Pacers and will believe that the development of this team will continue in a positive direction.

However, it has not been perfect for the Knicks over the first few days of this Conference Semi Final Series, despite holding serve twice at Madison Square Garden.

Injuries have really been piling up and the team have lost the likes of Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season, which means the bench depth is simply not where it once was. To make matters worse, OG Anunoby produced 28 points in 28 minutes in Game 2, but picked up a hamstring injury which means he will be doubtful for Game 3 and potentially longer.

Jalen Brunson missed almost the entirety of the Second Quarter with an injury of his own, but he was able to play through the pain to help the Knicks fight back from a big deficit and beat the Indiana Pacers. Again, you have to wonder how healthy Brunson can be with a day of rest between games and the worry for the New York Knicks is that their starters are having to play significant minutes already.

That feels unsustainable for the duration of the PlayOffs, but the Knicks have to be so proud of the way they have been able to dictate whatever they have wanted to do on the Offensive side of the court. Doing the same on the road compared with at home is the challenge for the team and New York will have to expect a big reaction from the Indiana Pacers, who have felt hard done by when it comes to late game officiating.

Head Coach Rick Carlisle did not hide his displeasure at the end of Game 2 and the Pacers will feel they should have taken at least one of the first two games. There wasn't much wrong with Indiana Offensively in Game 2 and they have a deeper rotation than the New York Knicks with key contributions coming off the bench, but the Pacers know they need to make adjustments Defensively to try and slow down this Knicks attack.

Being back at home will help and Carlisle has put some pressure on the referees by suggesting there has been some 'big market bias' at play in the first two games. The Pacers have won all three PlayOff games played here and the last two have been blowout wins, while those teams coming off a loss in the Conference Semi Finals and then playing at home have been strong to back when it comes to the betting window.

Game 3 hosts have bounced back to produce a 6-2 record against the spread over the last couple of seasons and so the Indiana Pacers will be feeling they can get the better of a short-handed opponent. This may feel like the game in which the Knicks perhaps take a breath before pushing again and the Indiana Pacers may be able to win and cover at home to halve the deficit in the Series.

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: After coming up short in Game 1, the expectation was that the Denver Nuggets would just remind people why they are the defending Champions.

Instead, the blowout in Game 2 puts the Champs in a position where they might not be able to return home during this Series as they look to at least split the two games to be played in Minnesota.

This looks a big challenge against a Timberwolves team that have had all of the answers on both sides of the court and who have won all six PlayOff games with the closest margin of victory being 6 points. Four of those six wins have been blowout victories and the Timberwolves will be playing at home with the confidence of believing that they have shown they match up as well with the Denver Nuggets as they look to do on paper.

Nikola Jokic was awarded the regular season MVP again, but he has been massively contained in the first two games and the Nuggets need to find a way to release him. The Timberwolves are harassing Jokic into poor shots and he is just 15/38 in the first two games from the field, while the supporting cast are not producing efficiently enough for Minnesota to have to leave Nikola Jokic.

One of the big issues has been the injury that Jamal Murray is playing through and he had a terrible Game 2.

At this point of the season, Murray is not going to get a lot better and so the likes of Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have much more pressure on their shoulders. Shooting the three ball well enough has been a massive problem for the Nuggets through the PlayOffs and while it was too much for the Los Angeles Lakers, the Minnesota Timberwolves are showing why they are a different prospect.

Minnesota are doing what they have all season and they have shown a real depth in the rotation with players coming off the bench and really pushing them forward. Anthony Edwards may be the star, but his role players are producing around him and the Timberwolves have shown a huge intensity Defensively which has sparked them on the Offensive side of the court.

Hosts in Game 3 have been on a solid two season tear and the Timberwolves certainly have momentum behind them.

It would be foolish to write off the defending Champins, but the Denver Nuggets will feel they are already behind the black ball in this Series. Winning Game 3 is almost imperative considering no NBA team has managed to win a best of seven from 0-3 down, but it will need a significant change in fortunes for that to happen.

At least the Nuggets have had a bit more time to prepare with Game 3 being played after three rest days following Game 2, but even then, Jamal Murray is unlikely to be at full strength and the Timberwolves can keep marching forward.

Saturday 11th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A remarkable display of three point shooting helped the Dallas Mavericks edge past the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 to level this Conference Semi Final Series. Backing that up over a long Series is going to be tough, but the Mavericks will return home for the next two games with a big chance to take control of the Series.

The Thunder will have been disappointed by the fact that the role players made such an impact for the Mavericks, while they were not able to contain Luka Doncic nearly as well as they did in Game 1.

There will be adjustments made by Oklahoma City, but they may have big decisions to make if the Dallas role players start Game 3 as hot as they finished in Game 2. If those players are hitting their shots at such an efficient rate again, the Thunder may have to sap off the likes of Kyrie Irving and Doncic, but in turn that may free up the top two players for the Number 5 Seed.

It is something that will be discussed before the Thunder make the relatively short journey to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday.

When the three point shot is landing, it makes it that much more difficult for teams to get out in transition and that may have contributed to the struggles that Oklahoma City had Offensively. Instead of facing a Dallas Defensive unit scrambling backwards, they were facing a set unit and that saw the Thunder's three point shooting dip in Game 2 from the output of the first game in this Series.

Picking a winner in Game 3 looks tough with the Dallas Mavericks down as small home favourites.

Instead the focus may be on the total point line, which has moved up by a couple of points from Game 2- the feeling is that the Mavericks will not be able to hit the three pointers nearly as efficiently as they did last time out, while the 'under' is 16-8 in the last twenty-four Game 3s played in the Conference Semi Final Series before this season.

You do have to respect how well these two teams can play Offensively, but they are also competitive Defensive units and the adjustments made in the shift from Oklahoma City to Dallas may contribute to this total points line being a point or two high for the teams to combine and surpass.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Much like Game 2 of the First Round Series against the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics were beaten by a heavy dose of three point shooting, while their own shooters just struggled to make the impact expected.

And much like that Series, there will be no considerable panic inside the Boston locker room as they bid to regain home court advantage when visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 of this Conference Semi Final Series on Saturday.

Donovan Mitchell was in bullish mood after the win on Thursday and admitted 'whatever it takes' to win a game and protect home court is what the Cleveland Cavaliers have to put in. They only had two more three pointers in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but there is no doubting the improved efficiency between those games, and the sprinkling of luck of the bounce that seemed to go Cleveland's way.

Backing that up in Game 3 is the key, but a big reaction from the Boston Celtics has to be expected.

Jayson Tatum has yet to really get going in the post-season, but that has not been an issue when the rest of the squad have been producing at the level they have been. In Game 2, Tatum's struggles were clearer to see when the Celtics hit 8 three pointers compared with the 18 they put through the net in the first game of the Series.

Throughout the course of this season, we have only seen the Celtics prove time after time that efforts like Game 2 are an exception and they showed that in the First Round Series too. Expecting the Cavaliers to be as dominant from the three point line and the Boston Celtics to struggle as much as they did with good looks in Game 2 is perhaps asking too much and the Celtics can respond by taking back home court advantage in strong fashion.

We have not see a big road favourite of 5 or more points in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs for six years, but teams in that spot are 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight. The Celtics have shown they can wear down opponents with their shooting and the response should be immediate to the setback suffered on Thursday.

Sunday 12th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: Each of the first three games of this Conference Semi Final Series has come to a big moment at the latter end of the Fourth Quarter. The first two went in favour of the New York Knicks behind some controversial officiating, but Game 3 was won by the Indiana Pacers thanks to an unexpected player stepping up and hitting what was ultimately the game winning three pointer with seconds left in a tied game.

Andrew Nembhard had only scored two points during Game 3 and had been 1/7 from the field before launching a deep three pointer as the shot clock wound down. This has breathed new life into the Indiana Pacers after coming through a game that went back and forth throughout the 48 minutes played, but ultimately landed in their favour and halved the deficit in this Series.

The schedule is unrelenting at this time of the post-season and that means a day of rest for the players before they face each other again in Game 4.

OG Anunoby was a big loss for the New York Knicks and his status for Sunday is going to be a huge part of any potential outcome. Since signing with the Knicks, the team have built a very strong record with Anunoby in the lineup and asking Alec Burks and Donte DiVincenzo to shoot as efficiently for a second game in a row might be too much.

The latter is having a big Conference Semi Final Series and is 18/32 from the three point range so there may be more believe in DiVincenzo to maintain current standards. However, Jalen Brunson is clearly playing through the pain and Josh Hart continues to play huge minutes, which is not ideal for the Knicks unless they can close this Series very quickly.

Indiana are using a deeper rotation and they will feel the bench underperformed, even if the team won Game 3 when all is said and done. The Pacers will be looking for a bit more out of those role players having leaned on their top three names to carry them through until Nembhard made the biggest impact of the night.

The Pacers have momentum and teams that have won Game 3 have followed up by going 13-5 against the spread in Game 4. There is another trend going against the New York Knicks in Game 4 with teams leading a Conference Semi Final Series being 11-21-1 against the spread in this spot and the limited time to recover may just favour a deeper rotation being used by the Indiana Pacers.

Nothing has been easy for either team in this Series, but the momentum cannot be ignored after winning Game 3 in the manner they did and Indiana may just be able to head to Madison Square Garden with this one tied up at 2-2 with a win and cover.

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: After winning both road games to open this Conference Semi Final Series, the Minnesota Timberwolves returned to a party atmosphere ahead of Game 3.

However, getting too far ahead and dismissing the obvious threats of the Denver Nuggets, the defending Champions, is a mistake and the blowout win for the road team might just have reminded everyone that two more games still need to be won to eliminate them.

Jamal Murray looked to be out of sorts with an injury, but returned to form at a very good time and he was the spark that helped the Nuggets dominate Game 3. Efficient shooting makes it very difficult for the Timberwolves to get out in transition, when their Offensive decision making is most effective, and that all came together for Denver in the Game 3 win.

Nikola Jokic was as expected, but Murray's return to his best made it easier for the role players to find the open spaces on the court. This is key for the Denver Nuggets and they will be looking to ride the momentum into Game 4 knowing full well that teams leading the Conference Semi Final Series have struggled in this spot in recent times and those that won Game 3 have tended to come out on top in Game 4 too.

The Timberwolves will have been frustrated by their overall level as they were beaten in the PlayOffs for the first time in 2024 and this is going to be a real test of their character. The spread has dropped a couple of points from Game 3, which underlines the respect the oddsmakers have for the Nuggets, while we are going to learn a lot more about Minnesota in seeing how they respond to a first setback.

Ultimately they cannot have lost all belief seeing as they have a 2-1 lead in the Series and a win on Sunday would go a long way to making the Western Conference Finals.

Anthony Edwards was contained in Game 3, but the Timberwolves will be looking to make the adjustments that may just free him up, while the role players have to perform better than they did. The bench has been important for Minnesota, but they did not get the same production in the last game as they have in the first two and so there is going to be some work to do in order to get back on track.

Recent trends certainly favour the Denver Nuggets and it is always hard to oppose a team with the obvious qualities the defending Champions have.

However, this Timberwolves team is better than what they showed in Game 3 and the Conference Semi Final Series this season have seen teams bouncing back from blowout defeats. The same can be expected of the Minnesota Timberwolves as long as they make a more intense start to Game 4 and they can win and cover at home, even as a smaller home favourite.

Monday 13th May

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: Much like the First Round Series win over the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics just showed their Championship mettle to bounce back from a disappointing Game 2 loss with a crushing Game 3 win. The final margin may 'only' have been 13 points, but it was a game in which Boston dominated in the second half and has left the Cleveland Cavaliers scrambling for answers again.

Once again Donovan Mitchell powered the Cavaliers, but they were always unlikely to be as efficient from the three point arc as they were in Game 2. The players outside of Mitchell had issues finding their consistency and ultimately that is not going to get it done if the Boston Celtics are even having an average shooting day from three point range.

Jayson Tatum has perhaps not needed to dominate in the post-season right now, but he might have felt Game 3 was an important moment to remind everyone that he is the best player on the court. His 33 points were backed up by Jaylen Brown's 28 points and this time it was Jrue Holiday who was the role player that made the big plays around the top two names.

There is still room for Offensive improvement from the Boston Celtics, but this is a team that finished with the best record in the NBA thanks to their Defensive qualities too. It is those that are going to make it very difficult for Cleveland to win this Series, although the Cavaliers might receive the boost of having Jarrett Allen return having been close to being cleared ahead of Game 3.

We only have a day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, but that may be enough for Allen to make his return and try and give Cleveland the kind of spark they need. The reality is that Cleveland are going to have to find the lights out shooting of Game 2 at least three more times to win this Series, but that is a big ask of this team and the manner of the defeat on Saturday will have just reminded the team of the kind of mountain they need to climb.

As mentioned in other selections, teams that have won Game 3 have a strong record in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series.

The Celtics win and cover also means big road favourites of a least 5 points are now 7-1-1 against the spread in the last nine tries in the Conference Semi Finals and Boston are certainly capable of taking complete control of the Series by winning again in Cleveland on Monday.

Taking away Donovan Mitchell looks unlikely and not something Boston will concern themselves with, but they will continue to attack the role players and force them into bad shots. If they can do that, Boston are never that far away from putting on a strong Offensive clinic and they can win and cover this line for a second road game in a row.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: The less than 100% status of Luka Doncic had his status being listed as Questionable to suit up for the last couple of games. Each time he has been willing to play through the pain, but the most exciting factor for the Dallas Mavericks is that they have been able to support Doncic and ensure the team is leading this Conference Semi Final Series going into Game 4.

No one has scored more points for the Dallas Mavericks than PJ Washington in the last two games as they have moved 2-1 ahead of the Number 1 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Offensive Rebounding was a vital advantage for the Mavericks in the Game 3 win, while this young Thunder team have to make adjustments to just show a bit more consistency from the three point arc. They should be largely happy with what they have been able to achieve Defensively in this Series, but the Thunder know it will be easier to make stops if they can prevent buckets in quick transition and also prevent those Offensive boards that can make it very difficult to reset.

Picking a winner does not look easy with the Mavericks still going into this one as a narrow favourite, having been in the same position in the 5 point win on Saturday.

The narrow lean may be with the Dallas Mavericks considering how well Game 3 winners have performed in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series of recent times. However, those leading a Series have not played that well in this middle game of a best of seven and the spread is one that is narrow enough to make a case for either side.

Instead it may be best to go back to the same well as Game 3 and look for this Game 4 to fall below the total points like set.

It should be noted that the line has dropped considerably between games, but these two teams know they will go as far as the strong Defensive schemes can take them. Two of the three games would have fallen below the current line total and it still looks a touch higher than it perhaps should be in a pivotal game in this big Series.

MY PICKS: 04/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

06/05 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

06/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

07/05 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

07/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

08/05 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

11/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

11/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

12/05 Indiana Pacers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Boston Celtics - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Conference Semi Final Update: 9-7, + 1.23 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.69% Yield)

First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2023- Games 5-7 (May 9-15)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Finals Picks- Games 5-7

It has already been a memorable run of games in the NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Series and we have a couple of definite Game 6's to be played later this week.

Surprisingly the Series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors and the Eastern Conference Series between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat have seen the lower Seed move into a 3-1 lead through four games. I would still not dismiss the chances of the Warriors to fight back and force a Game 7, but the Knicks need to get something going after blowing big opportunities to steal Game 4 on the road on Monday evening.

The other two Series are both tied at 2-2 after four games and those will take centre stage on Tuesday with a pivotal Game 5 to be played in Boston and Denver. The winner of those Series are likely going to be the strong favourite to reach the NBA Finals that begin in early June.

A strong start for the NBA Picks in this Round have slowed down in the last few days so I am looking for a bounce back from those as much as some of the teams dropping Game 4 will be. The numbers are still in a positive position, but reversing the negative trend is important.

Tuesday 9th May

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: A huge effort from James Harden saw the Philadelphia 76ers earn a win over the Boston Celtics in Game 1 without Joel Embiid in the starting line up. He had not been shooting the same way in Game 2 and 3 with Embiid back alongside him, but James Harden poured in 42 points in Game 4, including the game winning three pointer in Overtime, and the 76ers will be feeling like they are very much in this Series.

A slight delay from Marcus Smart meant his buzzer beating three pointer left his hand just after the game had finished and the defeat in Game 4 will have bothered the Boston Celtics who looked to have the momentum behind them after coming back from losing the opening game of the Series to then lead 2-1.

Heading back home at 2-2 will be of some disappointment to the Celtics, but they remain the favourites to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, Boston know they will need to be a little better all around if they are going to win Game 5 and move back in front of the Philadelphia 76ers having played very loose Defensive Basketball until the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 on the road.

They did hold the 76ers to just 24 points in the final 17 minutes of Game 4, but Boston had gotten themselves into a significant hole through the first three Quarters and ultimately that proved to be costly to them on the day.

Joel Embiid had a big game last time out to complement James Harden, but it does feel this Series is going to come down to how hot Harden can stay on the court. James Harden had 45 points in Game 1 and 42 points in the last game, but the middle two outings saw him produce a combined 28 points and both of those ended up in double digit defeats for the 76ers.

Adjustments will be made by Boston and some of those were seen through the final Quarter and Overtime in Game 4, while the Celtics are still looking for a really big day from the three point arc. They have been consistent shooting from that range and will continue to shoot a lot of three pointers, but the Celtics have to believe they can dominate the remainder of this Series if they can just find a bit more efficiency shooting the ball.

Al Horford has been up and down, but Jayson Tatum is likely to be a lot better than Game 4 and I still believe the Boston Celtics are the team to beat in the East.

Big home favourites have not had a very good time covering in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, while Game 5 home favourites are on a poor run of 15-20 against the spread over the last ten years. Those drop to 9-15 against the spread when favoured by more than 5.5 points as the Celtics are on Tuesday, but I do think Boston will bounce back from the defeat in Game 4.

It was a tight game that would have taken something away from the 76ers even with a win on the board and I do think Boston have shown they can find a way to close down James Harden. All credit has to be given to Harden for stepping up in Game 4, but Boston at home should have more successes and I think they can be backed to cover this big mark.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: Chris Paul's injury looked like it could be very damaging for the Phoenix Suns, especially with the team 2-0 down in the Series. However, it seems to have sparked a lively Suns Offensive game plan with a fast tempo seemingly working to their favour as they held serve at home and return to Denver with the Series back at 2-2.

Both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have really thrived at home, but playing that kind of speed of Basketball could be much tougher in the altitude of Mile High as the Series moves back to Denver. That is certainly something the Nuggets fans will be clinging onto having wasted a huge effort from Nikola Jokic in Game 4 as the Denver Defensive unit struggled to contain the top two options for the Suns and were then hurt by Landry Shamet's performance from the bench.

With Booker showing some very high efficiency in his shooting, it has helped the Suns just open up their three point looks and they have been much better in the two games at home than they were in the two games played here.

In Game 1 and 2 the Suns combined for 13/54 from the three point range (24%), but they have pushed that to 22/57 (38%) in the two games at home. The Nuggets know they need to make some Defensive adjustments having felt they have underperformed in Game 3 and 4 after strong showings to open the Series, but Denver have been much stronger at home this season and I do think that plays a part in the outcome of this Conference Semi Final.

As we have seen time and time again in the NBA PlayOffs, role players tend to be better at home and I do expect to see a bounce back from players not called Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray when this Series shifts back to Denver. The Nuggets have maintained a solid, if unspectacular, success rate from the three point range and they have been pretty efficient shooting the ball too, but the key will be to show improved Defensive intensity to try and cool down the top two names on the Suns roster.

I do think they can do that at home after a couple of below par efforts and I am expecting a response from the Nuggets in what has been a really good Series so far.

You can never discount Devin Booker and the experience of Kevin Durant has shown this is a player who will step up in the big moments, but I still think the overall depth of the Denver Nuggets can play a part in determining the outcome of the Series. I expect the Defensive intensity to be ramped up at home and I do think those role players in the starting line up and coming off the bench will step up as the Nuggets look to return to Phoenix later this week with just one more win needed to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals.

I have mentioned that big home favourites have struggled in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Final Series in recent years, but Denver have beaten the Suns pretty well in both home games in this Series. As long as they can weather an early storm from the team with momentum behind them, the Nuggets can move through the gears in the second half and secure the win and cover to edge ahead in the Series.

Wednesday 10th May

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been a lot of noise around the New York Knicks since the end of Game 4 as they fell into a 3-1 hole against the Miami Heat. The blowout loss in Game 3 would have hurt, but the Knicks were a lot more competitive in the main in Game 4 and there is a feeling that they missed a big opportunity to win the game and level the Conference Semi Final Series.

It is not going to be easy for the players to dig in and try and force a Game 6, but they are back in The Garden and the home fans will try and get behind the New York Knicks.

They made some solid adjustments in Game 4 and shot the ball much better than they had in the previous game, but the Knicks were undone by turnovers and then an embarrassingly poor performance on the glass in the Fourth Quarter. A number of Offensive rebounds helped the poor shooting Miami Heat to just keep clear of the Knicks and that proved to be the difference with some key rebounding making the difference when the game seemed to be in the balance.

Julius Randle has been taking the brunt of the criticism from the New York Knicks fans- another poor PlayOff showing has just underlined the feeling that Randle is not someone that can really be trusted in key moments and there are one or two reports that the player and Tom Thibodeau had a disagreement after Game 4.

Suggesting that the Knicks 'don't want it' as much as the Miami Heat will not have made things easier for Julius Randle and he has to start this game with more intensity and personal responsibility.

The Knicks will need him to find his shooting too if they are going to get back into this Series.

Poor officiating frustrated the Knicks in Game 4, but they did play some solid Defense if you ignore the amount of Offensive boards allowed in the Fourth Quarter. This has been a feature of this Series with the Miami Heat getting to the Free Throw line to just get the Offensive unit ticking over, while they have made some big shots from the three point arc at key times throughout the four games played.

Some will feel the Heat have broken the back of the Series by holding firm in the two games played at home, but I think the Knicks may have at least one big effort left in them.

Teams playing in Game 5 after losing the previous game by at least 7 points have been on a very good run at covering the spread and I do think the Knicks will better in the columns of rebounding and turnovers. The shooting has been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks, but I think the Knicks can find the energy from the stands to at least head back to South Florida with one more chance to win a game on the road.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: There will be some real disappointment with the way the final moments of Game 4 went for the defending Champions Golden State Warriors and they are in a 1-3 hole in the Conference Semi Final Series. The team had more than one or two chances to win the game on the road at the Los Angeles Lakers, but some poor shooting and an inability to stop Lonnie Walker IV from having a career day in the Fourth Quarter proved to be the undoing of the Golden State Warriors.

Walker IV became the first Laker to score at least 15 points in the Fourth Quarter of the PlayOffs since Kobe Bryant and it was his step up that helped the Lakers overturn a 7 point deficit at the start of the Quarter and finish up with a win by three points.

Helping out LeBron James and Anthony Davis by becoming the third scorer meant Lonnie Walker IV made the headlines on Monday and the Lakers will arrive in San Francisco looking to close the Series out.

The Warriors are not likely to go away easily and Steve Kerr has made it clear that his team just have to take it game by game from here on out. The Head Coach admitted that his team missed an opportunity in Game 4, but he will need his players to find more consistency from the three point range and a more efficient performance from Steph Curry will be very important to the outcome of Game 5 too.

He was guilty of some loose play down the stretch that proved to be decisive in the outcome of Game 4, while some of the role players are not performing to the level that helped the Warriors walk away with the NBA Championship eleven months ago.

Jordan Poole is the one facing the music, but the Warriors have been better at home and those role players can step up as they look to force a Game 6 back in Los Angeles.

However, the Warriors will have to overcome some Game 5 trends that suggest the Lakers have the momentum to take in this one and can cover with the points being given to them.

Big home favourites continue to struggle in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Finals, while you may think the narrow win for the LA Lakers in the last game will have taken something out of the tank. However, teams who have been involved in a game that finished in a 3 point margin or less are 16-8 against the spread when playing on the road in their next game and the efficiency of shooting from within the three point arc may help the Lakers keep this one close.

Thursday 11th May

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: It was a really poor moment to pick your time to produce one of the worst games of the season, but the Boston Celtics made far too many errors in Game 5. Those proved to be costly and the Celtics will travel to Philadelphia to take on the home team 76ers at 3-2 down in the Conference Semi Final Series.

It makes the one point loss in Overtime in Game 4 sting all the more, but the Boston Celtics will not be panicking just yet. Over the last couple of years they have become a team that have become accustomed to playing the pressurised PlayOff Basketball of being a game away from elimination, but this is going to take a big effort to bring the game back to Boston for a Game 7 this weekend.

Momentum is very much with the Philadelphia 76ers who have won two games in a row and seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted in Game 5. However, Joel Embiid will know that him and his team need to be stronger if they are going close out this elimination game and they cannot expect Boston to be as lacklustre as they were in the last outing.

Missed shots is one thing, but missing wide open looks was very surprising, while Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will need to use all of their experiences to win this game. Both put in sub-par efforts in the last game, but this is an opportunity to turn the current narrative and get the Celtics back on track as the favourites to reach the NBA Final as the Eastern Conference representative.

The Celtics were below par when it came to their three point shooting, but that was not down to a suddenly improved Philadelphia Defensive performance and much more to do with Boston missing some big, open looks.

A dominant performance on the boards gave Philadelphia a stronger edge in Game 5, while the 76ers have to be excited by what they have seen from the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey. It was James Harden leading the way in Game 4, but Harris and Maxey took over the lead in supporting Joel Embiid and the strong three point showing from the 76ers meant they led from whistle to whistle.

I can't ignore the momentum that is now with the 76ers, but the Boston Celtics cannot be nearly as bad as they were in the last game. I expect some of their big names to step up and find a way to force this Series back to Boston for a Game 7 as they look to extend the trend of those teams looking to close out the Semi Final Series in a Game 6 having a tough time doing so.

With elimination staring them in the face, I expect a much better performance from an intensity point of view from the Boston Celtics. It should mean much more energy around the boards and I don't think their shooters will be as poor from the field as they were in Game 5 so I will look for the Celtics to win and cover for a second time in three games in Philadelphia.

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 6 Pick: All five games in this Western Conference Semi Final Series have been won by the home team and all have ended with said home team covering as a favourite.

It has left the Denver Nuggets one win away from securing a spot in the Western Conference Finals having won Game 5 at home, but there is still some serious work to get through if they are going to edge past the Phoenix Suns.

Once again the depth of the Nuggets proved to be key in Game 5 and they had four players who put up at least 19 points to win another home game. Compare that with the Phoenix Suns who had Devin Booker and Kevin Durant once again scoring big points, but had no other player score more than 14 points and that was Deandre Ayton who was also the only other player to produce double digit points for the team in losing the last game.

Role players have tended to be better on their home court in this Series, but there does seem to be a lot more pressure on the Booker and Durant pairing to make sure they are powering the Suns forward. They may receive a bit more support in this one, but the Suns have to find a way to keep the Denver bench quiet, as they have managed to do in the first two wins at home in the Series.

The Nuggets will also be looking to make some adjustments to get their three pointers going in this road environment knowing that would be a huge boost for the entire team. They hit 48% in Game 5 after three disappointing games from that range and the hope for the Number 1 Seed is having that momentum slide over in this big Game 6.

Going against the home favourite after the way this Series has developed feels wrong, but I do think the Denver Nuggets have the depth to close things out here. Closing out Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but the underdog is 15-6 against the spread in this important game since 2014 in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs.

Those teams have surprisingly won fourteen of the twenty-one games outright and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough avenues towards the buckets to cover.

Three point shooting will be key for the Nuggets, but they can use the output of Tuesday to produce enough on Thursday to cover in this one.

Chris Paul is still a doubt and that lack of support for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant may show up on their home court for the first time.

Friday 12th May

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: Foul trouble early and a big deficit at the end of the First Quarter had some New York Knicks fans fearing the worse, but a strong opening to the Second Quarter turned Game 5 around. There were not many big adjustments made by the New York Knicks, but they were a little more ruthless when it came to the three point shooting and a strong performance on the boards proved to be very important for the Knicks as they take this Series back to Miami for one more shot at winning on the road.

The Miami Heat will have been disappointed with their own shooting having produced a 13/43 effort from the three point range and they ended up on the losing side despite having seventeen more attempts from the field.

A key difference was the officiating did not offer the Miami Heat the big advantage at getting to the Free Throw line and this time it was the Knicks who had 40 Free Throws compared with just 19 for the Heat.

It is unlikely that the Miami Heat will be panicking after losing Game 5, especially as they will feel like they were missing too many open looks from the three point range, while being at home is likely going to mean 'better' officiating which goes in favour of the Heat.

They have already beaten the Knicks twice here already in this Series and that will also give Miami plenty of confidence. One was a blowout, but Game 4 was much more competitive and it was the Heat's performance on the boards which ended up being the key to the outcome of that game that was decided by just 8 points.

The Miami Heat have not been very consistent from the three point range throughout this Series, but they have been much more level with their shooting compared with the New York Knicks.

Game 3 saw the Heat go 22% from the three point range, but they have been between 30-35% in the other four games. That is much different to the New York Knicks who have had a 38% showing and 40% showing from the three point arc in their two wins, but who have not shot the ball well at all from that distance in the other three games in the Series.

Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes both had to play the entirety of Game 5 and you have to have some concern about their fitness levels with just one day of rest between games.

The Heat's depth feels like it is going to be key, but closing out Conference Semi Final Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams who are favoured like the Miami Heat. Those teams are just 1-5 against the spread in the last six attempts to do so as favourites, while the underdog in general have been on a good run in the sixth game of the Semi Finals.

I think it is entirely acceptable to feel unsure about the Knicks considering how reliant they have been on their three point shooting in this Series and the lack of consistency that has been shown. However, I do think the Miami Heat are not a team who are going to blow past any opponent and that makes the points appealing as I look to improve by 2-3 record in this Series.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Pick: It has been seven years since a NBA PlayOff Series has seen a team recover from 3-1 down (outside of the NBA Bubble when the Denver Nuggets did it twice and actually won both Series against the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in the neutral environment).

There are two teams hoping to force a Game 7 by winning on the road on Friday and I do think that places some real pressure on the home teams, in this case the Los Angeles Lakers.

There have been thirty-four NBA PlayOff Series that have seen a team blow a 3-1 lead, but only thirteen have been won by the team trailing. However, it should be noted that the last five occasions in which a Game 7 has been forced has been won by the team with momentum and so it is no surprise to hear legends of the NBA court like Charles Barkley state that he feels these Game 6's to be played on Friday night have to be treated like a Game 7 by the home team.

Los Angeles will feel the injury suffered by Anthony Davis turned Game 5 against them, but they are grateful that Davis looks to have avoided concussion and is reportedly trending towards starting this vital game. We are still being impressed by LeBron James, even if he is not the player he once was, but the Lakers are well aware of the importance of Anthony Davis in putting them in a position to return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the NBA Bubble in 2020 which ended with their Championship win.

The Lakers have been efficient getting inside the arc and using the skills of Davis inside the paint, while they are not a team that will go for a heavy dose of three point shooting.

It has been an effective game plan through this Conference Semi Final Series and is the opposite approach to the Golden State Warriors who will continue to launch the ball from deep. Klay Thompson has struggled in the last three games in the Series and that has contributed to the inconsistent performances that the Warriors have produced from shooting the three ball.

In the two games played in this Arena, the Golden State Warriors have finished up with a 29% and 30% mark from the three point range and that has proven to be costly considering they have launched eighty-five shots from deep.

Steve Kerr might have gotten into the ear of the officials with some of the calls that went the way of the Warriors in Game 5, but the experienced Head Coach will know his team need to be better from the three point range if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home. The Warriors did have a 37% mark in Game 5 as they pushed the Series back to 2-3, and that also meant the team were able to get inside the three point arc and have a strong showing.

The line for this game looks about right and I am not really feeling comfortable picking a side.

I haven't had a very good Series with a 1-4 record after the Lakers failed to cover in Game 5, but I can make a case for both teams. The underdog have thrived in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series in the last few years, while closing out this Round has proven very difficult for teams set as the favourite.

However, the Lakers have to feel confident with wins in both previous home games against the Warriors, even if they had to come from behind to do so in Game 4.

Instead I think there is a case to be made for this Game 6 to finish 'under' the total line set- the 'over' is leading 3-2 in the Series, but this is a point in the Conference Semi Final Series when the 'under' has been on a really strong run with teams picking up their intensity to avoid elimination/to move through to the Conference Finals.

The 'under' is on a 6-1 run in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series since 2021 (written before the two Game 6's to be played on Thursday).

Throw in the fact that both games played in this Series have finished 'under' the total and I do think this Game 6 can go the same way.

Sunday 14th May

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: A back and forth Conference Semi Final Series has been forced into a deciding Game 7 and I think that is fitting for this one between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.

The winner will enter the Eastern Conference Finals as the favourite to win and earn a spot in the NBA Finals beginning in June and that is some significant pressure to deal with on Sunday. Some of the big names struggled under that spotlight in Game 6, but Jayson Tatum was just able to settle down in time to produce some huge three point shots in the last four minutes of the Fourth Quarter to lead the Boston Celtics to the win.

Headlines were being written about Tatum's poor outing in Game 6 having been at 1/14 from the field and missing all six three pointers tried going into the Fourth Quarter. He had three more points than turnovers before finding his rhythm and there will be a lot of confidence in the Boston locker room as they head back home with two days of rest between games.

That time is going to be really important for the Philadelphia 76ers who will know they missed a big opportunity to earn the upset Series win after fighting back in Game 6 and going up and down the court. Poor shooting at the critical time in the Fourth Quarter as Jayson Tatum inspired the Boston run ended up seeing the 76ers come up short, but some of the body language in the last two minutes would have been massively disheartening for a fan watching on.

While it was unlikely they were going to win the game at that point, the slumping of Joel Embiid and James Harden and the little effort to get back down the court following a Boston Defensive rebound was worrying. With Joel Embiid playing with some pain, that has to be a concern and the 76ers should be wrapping him up and making sure he is absolutely ready to go on Sunday.

Unsurprisingly Boston are the big favourites at home and I do think they have been the superior team throughout much of the Series, Game 5 aside. The Celtics could have easily won all three road games played in this Series, but they would be foolish to ignore that two of the three Philadelphia wins have been in this Arena.

The 76ers will have to re-energise from an Offensive standpoint having been held to 86 points in Game 6 and especially as that follows an 87 point effort in Game 2. James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have had their moments in this Series, but it really does feel like a Game 7 that is going to come down to the Boston Celtics and how efficiently they can shoot their own three ball.

Jayson Tatum will not want to start as slowly as he did on Thursday, but it does feel like the Boston Celtics can hit between 35-39% from the three point range and that could be decisive for them.

My honest feeling is that the Celtics have not been Coached as well as they could be, but the adjustments made in Game 6 have given them the edge and this is a team that is either going to win by ten points or lose outright.

The lean is with a positive outcome for the Boston Celtics who won a Game 7 in both the Conference Semi Finals and Conference Finals last season. The Game 7 win at home against the Milwaukee Bucks came in a blowout and I do think the Philadelphia 76ers looked like a team that really does feel that their best chance of winning this Series has come and gone.

The team that has won Game 6 in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons to force a Game 7 are 7-2 against the spread in the decider. Big home favourites have not really played very well in this Round in recent times, and Boston are 1-2 against the spread at home in this Series, but I think the late Fourth Quarter charge has just given them the impetus to move through to another Eastern Conference Finals and prolong Philadelphia's long wait to do so.

MY PICKS: 09/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

09/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

10/05 New York Knicks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Los Angeles Lakers + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

11/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

11/05 Denver Nuggets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

12/05 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Golden State Warriors Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

14/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Semi Final Update: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round Final: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)