Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 12th May)

The second week at the Rome Masters begins with two really busy days as the entire WTA Fourth Round is played on Monday alongside the remaining ATP Third Round matches.

Tuesday will feature all of the ATP Fourth Round matches and the big names continue to focus on putting a strong tournament in the books to lay down a marker for the French Open. We are now under two weeks away from the First Round beginning in Paris at the second Grand Slam of the season and a very open tournament is set to take place, which can only be a positive for the fans who will be attending and following over the fortnight.

The two Sunday Picks came back with a 1-1 record which means a very narrow profit is still being held onto at this last big event before the French Open gets underway. However, there is plenty of work to get through before the Tour moves through the Italian capital and the hope is that Monday can put some momentum behind the selections moving into the weekend.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Peyton Stearns: The Rome Masters has moved into the second week and that means Fourth Round action begins for those playing in the WTA event.

This remains the last big chance to put down a marker for the upcoming French Open and some of the biggest names on the Tour remain in action.

There is no doubting the power of the Naomi Osaka name, although it has been a struggle for her to get back to the consistency that once helped her take home four Grand Slam titles. They were all won on the hard courts and playing on the clay has long been something that Osaka has struggled with, but a title has been won on the surface prior to the event in Rome and two wins here will only help the confidence.

It has to be remembered that Naomi Osaka pushed Iga Swiatek all the way in their match at the French Open in 2024 and she is capable of using a big serve to at least set things up on the slower surface compared with her favoured hard courts.

In the Fourth Round, Naomi Osaka is up against Peyton Stearns, a player who has put plenty of wins on the board in this clay court season and who is about to set a new marker for a career-high World Ranking. Last year, the 23 old American won a title on the clay and reached the Third Round at the French Open and Stearns has to be further respected for winning six of eight matches on the surface in 2025.

This should be a tough match for both and they are going to be very reliant on serving well to try and keep the opponent under pressure.

Naomi Osaka has not been quite as good on the return, but her first serve feels like a big difference maker and that may be the way this Fourth Round match develops. Both players would feel much better on the hard courts, but the performances have been solid on the clay and it may be a match where Osaka's serving gives her the edge across three sets and it could be enough to see the former World Number 1 cover this handicap mark.

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Clara Tauson: Bigger expectations are always that much tougher to be met and there is some pressure on Mirra Andreeva to deliver, even at her tender age.

Once you move into the top ten of the World Rankings, people are going to expect you to go deep into the biggest events and Mirra Andreeva has all of the qualities needed to win a Grand Slam title as soon as this calendar year. There is a target on her back though, which may mean facing opponents that bring their best tennis to the court every time they see Andreeva across the net, but the World Number 7 has shown a really good temperament.

After breezing through the first set and being pushed in the second, Mirra Andreeva was able to get on top of Linda Noskova in the Third Round. Now she takes aim at another younger player on the Tour who could be a rival for years to come, and Mirra Andreeva would to keep the wins ticking over against Clara Tauson.

Both previous wins have been relatively comfortable on the scoreboard and Andreeva may feel she has more of an edge over Clara Tauson on a clay court compared with a faster surface.

Clara Tauson has won two matches in Rome having lost the previous two matches played on the clay, and her returning numbers have not been to the level that is going to be needed to win a big Fourth Round match like this one.

Last year the World Number 23 reached the Fourth Round at the French Open, so Clara Tauson can clearly perform on the surface, but this has not been a good match up for her and Mirra Andreeva is a solid clay courter.

She should have more returning success than in the previous two matches, especially on the clay, but Tauson has to be concerned about how ineffective her serve has been in the defeats to Mirra Andeeva.

We could see more of that in this Fourth Round match and Mirra Andreeva could secure another strong win against this rival.

Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Marcos Giron: Injury has just made things difficult for Hubert Hurkacz over the last several months and he has missed much of the clay court season.

However, a solid Second Round win over Pedro Martinez is a reminder of the kind of comfort that the Pole displayed on the red dirt in 2024.

Serving well is always the key for Hubert Hurkacz, but he should also be pretty comfortable with the match up against an opponent who has shown little appetite for playing on the clay courts.

Prior to the two wins in Rome, Marcos Giron had won just two of the six matches played on the clay courts in the build up to the French Open. He did win more matches than he lost on the surface two years ago, but in the main Marcos Giron accepts this is a period of time on the Tour in which he tends to suffer plenty of early defeats.

The win over compatriot Taylor Fritz will give Marcos Giron confidence and being able to handle a big server like that could set him up for more in this Third Round contest.

We know how much Hubert Hurkacz relies on his serve, but there will be considerable pressure on Marcos Giron to make sure he is looking after that aspect of his tennis. He will be well aware that in three losses to the Pole, Marcos Giron has really struggled to get himself into the Hurkacz serve and the comfort on the surface should give the Seeded player the edge.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Jesper De Jong: He is playing at a career best World Ranking mark and Jesper De Jong has taken advantage of being given a Lucky Loser spot in the Rome Masters by winning two matches here. That means he is set for another improvement in the World Ranking from the current Number 93 next to his name and the Dutchman may feel he is playing with 'house money'.

The two wins here in the main draw have been solid victories for De Jong, but this is a huge step in terms of level of opponent now that the World Number 1 is standing in his way.

Returning from a three month suspension in front of the home fans who adore him will certainly have helped Jannik Sinner, but he will also be aware that tougher tests will be coming up. A controversial ban was accepted and so many of his peers, as well as fans, have not been happy with the deal done that allowed Jannik Sinner to compete and win the Australian Open and then return in time for the second Grand Slam of the season.

Unsurprisingly, Jannik Sinner did not have the easiest Second Round match, but the victory will help and he was able to crush Jesper De Jong at the Australian Open in 2024.

He lost just six games in cruising past De Jong and the returning numbers on a much faster surface should mean Jannik Sinner enters this match with a lot of belief and confidence.

The timing was not quite right on the return in the Second Round, but having that match under his belt should help the Italian. Jannik Sinner will feel that the match is going to be played on his terms and he has to be encouraged by the drop in service numbers produced by Jesper De Jong when he has faced a top 100 Ranked opponent on this surface over the last twelve months.

In that time frame, the likes of Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev have recorded strong wins over Jesper De Jong and Jannik Sinner may follow suit.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 6-5, + 0.25 Units (11 Units Staked, + 2.28% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 1-4 (Sunday 4th May-Monday 12th May)

The top four Seeds in the Eastern Conference have made it through to the Second Round of the Playoffs and they have done in largely serene fashion, which means the next Round of the post-season can begin on Sunday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have underlined their status as the favourite to win the NBA Championship after breezing past the Memphis Grizzlies in the First Round, but they continue to wait and see who they will face in the Second Round. That will be decided in a Game 7 winner takes all contest between the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers and Game 1 of the Second Round will begin on Tuesday.

Another Western Conference First Round Series that needs a Game 7 to determine a winner is the one between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors and that has allowed the Minnesota Timberwolves to earn plenty of rest.

The Timberwolves have impressed by crushing the Los Angeles Lakers in five games and the momentum of the last two months suggests Minnesota may be able to reach the Western Conference Finals for a second season in a row. No matter who they play in the Second Round, Minnesota will be expecting a tougher challenge than they had in the First Round though and they will be hoping the layoff has not slowed any momentum or disrupted any rhythm that has been put together.

Much like the First Round, the idea is to split the Second Round Picks into a couple of threads with Games 1-4 covered here and the remaining games placed in another thread.

This is more for the sake of keeping the posts a little easier to read and Picks will be placed in the thread throughout the next several days.

NBA Playoffs Second Round Picks Games 1-4 (May 4th-12th)

Sunday 4th May

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: The Indiana Pacers moved past the Milwaukee Bucks in the First Round of the Playoffs and a chippy Series ended with some controversy after Tyrese Haliburton's father entered the court to taunt Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Instead of focusing on the big comeback to close the Series, the talk after the 4-1 Series win over the Bucks was about that controversy and it has led to John Haliburton being banned from attending games.

Tyrese Haliburton has said his father 'will be fine' and the Indiana Pacers will be looking to turn the page as they begin a Second Round Series with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Last year the Pacers were able to upset the New York Knicks to take their place in the Eastern Conference Finals and they are set as the underdog against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Darius Garland is listed as Questionable for the Cavaliers, but this is a roster with a solid depth about them and Cleveland crushed the Miami Heat in a sweep through the First Round. The two road wins were really impressive and Cleveland will be confident that they can get the better of a Pacers team that won the regular season series between the teams 3-1.

However, the two games played in April came during a time when the Pacers were trying to close out a top four Seed and when the Cavaliers were resting players and ensuring everyone was ready to go in the Playoffs. Both of those wins were in games where the Pacers had been set as big favourites and that is not the case when they meet in Game 1 of this Series.

The Pacers can take confidence from the fact they split two regular season games in which they had been set as the considerable underdog. They also showed the depth of their own rotation and the willingness to move the ball around and trusting every player to make the shots needed if they are in a position to do so.

This will make Indiana dangerous, but they will also be well aware that the Cleveland Cavaliers are a much tougher test than the Milwaukee Bucks, who had been hit by injury and who were perhaps a bit too predictable all in all. The Cavaliers are unlikely to let Indiana off the hook as the Milwaukee Bucks did and Cleveland look like a team that have been well balanced at both ends of the court.

Cleveland will be encouraged by their three point shooting and the way the Indiana Pacers were defending that mark in the First Round Series. They have also shown they can dominate games in different ways and the Cavaliers may be ready to come out and make an early statement in this Series.

Hosts have made a strong start in Game 1 of the Second Round of the NBA Playoffs and have an 18-13-1 record against the spread over the last nine years.

Big home favourites have given a poor return to backers since 2016, but favourites that have been asked to lay 6 or more points are 15-9 against the spread in Game 1 of the Second Round. The Cleveland Cavaliers will note what the Indiana Pacers did in the Playoffs last season and that respect should have the home team coming out with focus and drive and they can cover this line.

Monday 5th May

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: If it was not for the upset in the Eastern Conference Second Round, the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks would have met in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024.

Twelve months on the rivals are facing one another for the first time in the post-season in over a decade and this time a place in the Eastern Conference Finals is on the line.

The Boston Celtics have picked up some form as we have drawn to a close in the regular season and the defending Champions are well aware of what they need to do in order to win Series at this time of the season. They came through a physical First Round Series with a 4-1 win over the Orlando Magic, and most Boston fans will simply appreciate the fact that players have managed to escape serious injury.

Jrue Holiday picked up a hamstring issue which saw him miss the last three games of the First Round win, but closing the Series when Boston did has given him ample time to rest and recover. He is expected to be active for Game 1 and that could be a huge bonus considering how well Holiday has done when he has been asked to guard Jalen Brunson.

The New York Knicks needed a big shot from Brunson to close out the Detroit Pistons in six games and that will have given them confidence considering the number of games won when there was little between them. Showing they can win those kind of games is a huge boost, but the pressure is on the New York Knicks to make the adjustments against an opponent that has regularly dominated them in recent meetings.

All four of the regular season games were won by the Boston Celtics and three of those were pretty comfortable. The schemes run by the Knicks have allowed the Boston Celtics to find their rhythm shooting the three ball and even the blueprint laid out by the Orlando Magic may not be one that New York can attempt to replicate.

The only positive for the Knicks is that they should have won the most recent of the regular season games, but that was played at Madison Square Garden and opening at TD Garden is a much different challenge.

Hosts have been really strong in Game 1 of the Second Round of the Playoffs and this is the spot in which even big home favourites have tended to cover. With Jrue Holiday back, the Boston Celtics can harass the New York Knicks and make an early statement in the Series by securing a big home win to take a 1-0 lead.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: The Denver Nuggets rallied to beat the LA Clippers in the First Round of the Playoffs and won the vital Game 7 at home. Many within the organisation feel they have already justified the decision to fire Head Coach Michael Malone with just days of the regular season remaining, but the fans have been spoiled by the NBA Championship win of 2023 and expectations remain big.

They have to face the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference when the Second Round begins and the Denver Nuggets will be confident from the fact they managed to split four regular season games with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

However, it may be asking a lot of the Denver Nuggets to steal away home court advantage immediately and that is largely down to the historical numbers suggesting that those that have won an eliminator in the previous Round have struggled to be as competitive as they would like in Game 1 of the next Series.

Ultimately that is not a massive surprise when you think of the emotions needed to win in a pressurised spot, and the fact that a team has had to dig deep to come through a Series. The experience of the Denver Nuggets will help and they may feel the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be out of some rhythm having swept through the First Round and having had plenty of time off.

The Playoff experiences of twelve months ago will help the Thunder in their preparation, although finding a way to close down Nikola Jokic may be something that is beyond their capabilities in this Series. Instead the decision may be made to prevent anyone from offering him support and the fast tempo used by the Thunder has to give them an advantage if the Nuggets are feeling some of the knocks from the First Round win over the LA Clippers.

This is a big spread, but hosts in Game 1 of the Second Round have a solid record at covering the bigger numbers set for them as favourites. Four regular season games were split, but the two Thunder wins were by double digits and they may just have the youthful energy to pull clear in this opening game.

Tuesday 6th May

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: If there was any doubt about the qualities that the Indiana Pacers bring into this Eastern Conference Second Round Series, those have quickly been put to rest with a solid Game 1 win. Stealing away home court will have most Pacers fans feeling like they have already seen their team enjoy a successful business trip, but Indiana's players will want more as they prepare for Game 2.

All of the adjustments have to be made by the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers- they were not nearly intense enough Defensively as they allowed the Indiana Pacers to dominate from the three point range, while the continued absence of Darius Garland becomes a bigger worry.

Better efficiency is needed from the Cavaliers who never recovered from the early and late punches that were delivered by the Indiana Pacers. The Number 4 Seed were allowed to make the runs to just keep the Cavaliers are arm's length and they did enough to maintain control of their emotions when Cleveland did make a run to move in front in the Fourth Quarter.

Both teams will be looking to make the Defensive adjustments to just stay in control and this total points line may be a bit too high.

Everyone is expecting the Cleveland Cavaliers to bounce back and the spread has shifted into double digits after the Game 1 loss, but the under might be the better play considering what the Indiana Pacers were able to do in the upset win. It feels very important for the Cleveland Cavaliers to be much better Defensively if they are going to get back on track in the Series and that may be the focus for the team, which can contribute to this total line ending up being too high.

The under play had been really good when the line was sat at 227.5 points or higher, but Game 1 surpassed went 'over' to snap that run. However, games that have been decided by less than 11 points have trended heavily in favour of the under play next time out, while the expectation of seeing the Cleveland Cavaliers perform better overall should contribute to a lower scoring game.

These two have matched up well Offensively all season, which makes the play a bit more dangerous, but this is Playoff Basketball now and Game 2 looks like being a tighter affair with the two teams looking to show a bit more Defensive resilience in order to secure the win.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Pick: All credit has to be given to the veterans on the Golden State Warriors roster, especially for their second half performances, but it was the role players who had put the team in a strong position in Game 7 in the First Round win over the Houston Rockets.

That laid the platform for success as the Warriors made sure they recovered from dropping back to back games and having to travel to Houston for Game 7. Adjustments were made by an experienced group of players and a strong Coaching staff and that has pushed the Golden State Warriors into a position where many will feel they can progress through the Second Round and reach yet another Western Conference Finals.

Game 1 of the Second Round looks to be a tough spot to be in- the Warriors have only had one day of rest and historically it has not been an ideal spot for teams coming through a seven game battle. While they have invested emotions and effort, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been resting and preparing for another Second Round Series and the team has to be respected having reached the Western Conference Finals last year.

As the regular season wound down, the Minnesota Timberwolves were looking stronger and stronger as the roster finally found some rhythm. That made them a dangerous team entering the Playoff and the Timberwolves backed that up by crushing the Los Angeles Lakers in five games, although they will be expecting a much tougher challenge.

In four regular season games played, the Golden State Warriors won three, but the last was played in mid-January and both teams are pretty different now.

Another close Series is expected, but hosts in Game 1 are the right team to back in recent years and that is further strengthened by the fact that the Golden State Warriors are coming into the Series after a Game 7 win. Hosts being asked to lay at least 6 points have a very strong record in Game 1 of the Second Round of the Playoffs and the Minnesota Timberwolves may just have a bit more energy when it comes down to the crunch and that should see them win and cover this number set for the opener.

Wednesday 7th May

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: There will be a lot of questions asked inside the Boston Celtics locker room after blowing Game 1 in the manner they did and losing home court advantage puts the team under some pressure when the second game at the TD Garden is played on Wednesday.

After building a 20 point lead with eighteen minutes left, the Boston Celtics should have really been changing the game plan and focusing on keeping the Knicks under pressure.

Instead the Celtics fell in love with the three point shot in Game 1 and put up a Playoff record sixty attempts, which is shocking considering the position they had got into in the middle of the Third Quarter. With the top three New York Knicks players in foul trouble, the plan should have been to attack those players and get to the rim, but twenty shots were taken in the Third Quarter and nineteen of them from the three point range.

Nothing would have been said if those shots were landing, but the Celtics only hit 25% from outside of the arc and ultimately that gave the Knicks a lifeline.

Credit has to be given to New York for kicking open the door and it was a superb run through the end of the Third Quarter and into the Fourth Quarter that saw them not only erase the 20 point deficit, but move into a position to win. Things would have felt pretty disappointing for the Knicks if they had still finished Game 1 being behind in the Series, but New York maintained the momentum into Overtime and showed plenty of character to beat the Boston Celtics for the first time.

All of the pressure feels like it is going to be on the home team who cannot really afford to head to Madison Square Garden 2-0 behind in this Second Round Series. The defending Champions are likely to have taken note of what went wrong with the plan in Game 1 and they will be hoping that Kristaps Porzingis is able to overcome his illness and offer more minutes in this one.

You have to believe the Celtics will be more efficient with their three point shooting and they are in a historical spot where teams have bounced back.

Big home favourites have been on a really poor run in the Second Round of the NBA Playoffs, but teams playing at home after a loss are on a 23-13 run against the spread since the Bubble season. Hosts struggled in Game 2 of the Second Round last season, but are on a 12-4 run against the spread, while those that lost by less than 6 points have gone 17-6 against the spread in their next game.

The spread line is a little intimidating with Boston being asked to cover a higher line than Game 1, but they are expected to be better all around if they are in a position to level the Series. This time you have to believe better decisions will be taken by the team and the defending NBA Champions can show their composure by securing the victory and covering this mark on their way to levelling the Series.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: The opening games of the Second Round have featured three straight upsets (in the three Series that have begun) and a single unit placed on the treble would have returned 125 units!! These have not only been upsets, but huge upsets with the outright victories pushing meaning home court has been stolen away by the lower Seeds.

The Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference Oklahoma City Thunder will have been really disappointed with the way they allowed Game 1 to slip away from them. They were not only facing a lower Seed at home, but one that had little rest after being forced to go the distance in the First Round and the Thunder will remember being dumped out unexpectedly in the Second Round of the Playoffs twelve months ago.

A reaction is expected, never mind needed, and the Thunder will be looking to make adjustments that gives them a chance of keeping control of Game 2. The biggest one has to be a way of clearing up the glass having been crushed on those numbers and ultimately paving the way for the upset.

Oklahoma City will also be expecting more out of the key support players around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after a below par Game 1 effort from the likes of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams and that can potentially turn the tide in this Series.

The Denver Nuggets will be feeling very good having recovered from a Game 7 First Round Series win over the LA Clippers to upset the Thunder in Game 1. Nikola Jokic had a huge game, but the Nuggets will believe they were nowhere their best and that more is to come from them in this Series.

They only made 31% of the three pointers launched, but it was the dominance on the glass that made the difference with 20 more boards than the Thunder. That is a huge advantage, especially when you note that the Nuggets had 21 Offensive Rebounds compared with Oklahoma City's 30 Defensive Rebounds, and that kind of margin could lead to an improbable 2-0 lead in the Series.

It may be asking too much considering the amount of effort needed and the Denver Nuggets could easily feel they have already done what they would have wanted by earning a split from the first two games. There is every chance the team could slump off a little bit and the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown all season that they can get things right and really pull away from any opponent they face.

This is a dangerous Series if the Nuggets continue playing as they are, but much like the Boston-New York Second Round Series, Game 2 could see the hosts bounce back as teams have historically done so when losing close games. The Oklahoma City Thunder were not a big favourite for no reason in Game 1 and they can make the adjustments to at least keep the Rebounding numbers much closer and that could be key in being able to exert their authority on Game 2 as they look to level things up before the two games to be played in Colorado.

And much like the other Series being played on the same night, the Oklahoma City Thunder are being asked to a cover a slightly higher line compared with Game 1 with the layers anticipating the fightback. The Thunder have work to do, but they finished with the best record in the Western Conference by some margin and can secure a strong win here before the Series flips home court around.

Thursday 8th May

You have to say it has been an upset filled Second Round through five games with the road team winning all of those contests.

And it isn't as if they have been pick 'em games as far as the layers are concerned and backing up that point is a five team accumulator of a single unit would have returned well over a thousand back.

Adding to the frustration was the total in Game 2 of the Cleveland Cavaliers-Indiana Pacers barely clearing the line set. Neither team was particularly good at shooting the ball, but sixty-four Free Throws were whistled by the officials and over fifty points were scored at the line and that is a huge number seeing as the second game of Tuesday night had thirty-two Free Throws attempted, never mind made.

Poor runs can happen in the post-season, but hopefully things have begun to turn around with the two Wednesday selections (although going against massive road underdogs feels less and less appealing after what has been seen in the last few days).

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 Pick: All eyes will turn to the status of Steph Curry who lasted just 13 minutes in Game 1 of this Second Round Series in the Western Conference. His hamstring issue is almost certainly going to be ruling him out of Game 2 and the limited rest time between the first five games in this Series makes it tough to believe Curry will be contributing a lot.

Despite that, and despite the fact that Golden State had to come through a Game 7 in the First Round against the Houston Rockets, the Warriors showed their veteran savvy by beating the Minnesota Timberwolves and completing a Game 1 sweep for the road teams through the Second Round Playoff Series being played.

Credit has to be given to Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green for remaining composed without Steph Curry and the Warriors found enough shooting to secure the win and home court advantage before returning home later this week.

There will be a lot of disappointment in the Minnesota camp- they started really poorly having failed to make a single three pointer in the first half and the Timberwolves were never able to test the Warriors with the team trailing wire to wire. Even when Curry left, there was never the intensity that the Timberwolves will have needed and they made just 5 three pointers all night and were held to a really poor 88 points.

None of the starters will feel they covered themselves well, but Game 2 offers the chance to recover and show that Minnesota can bounce back from setbacks. We have seen that in the Playoff run already and the Timberwolves are a much better three point shooting team than we saw in Game 1.

Of course they are under some pressure to perform with the team desperate to avoid falling into a 2-0 hole, but a stronger start should be key for the home team. That should fire up the crowd and teams have tended to bounce back from home defeats in the Second Round of the Playoff, especially when they are playing at home following the loss.

The spread has moved considerably in anticipation of Steph Curry missing out, but the Minnesota Timberwolves need to focus on their side of the court and knock down the open shots that were being missed. With an even average performance from the three point arc, the Timberwolves should recover and they can be backed to win and cover here.

Friday 9th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: The Second Round of the Playoffs have been wild and we have had just eight games played so far.

Home teams had lost six in a row to open the Second Round, but the really surprising aspect is how many of them have been beaten when holding huge leads within the games.

It was the turn of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 as they entered the Fourth Quarter with a 14 point lead and were still 7 points ahead into the final ninety seconds. Yet somehow the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference dropped to 0-2 in this Series and the short-handed Cavaliers have to find a way to pick themselves up from the floor.

Darius Garland's absence has really hurt and he is expected to miss Game 3, while both Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter were also out of the lineup in Game 2. Both have been upgraded to Questionable, but there is no guarantee either suit up with just a day of rest between Game 2 and Game 3, and that is also a tough spot for Donovan Mitchell who left something out on the court with his huge effort to try and help his team tie up this Series.

He had 48 points in the loss and there were signs of fatigue at the end of Game 2, which is a worry for Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers. They will not have taken too much interest in the fact the officials feel they got a couple of late calls wrong as there is nothing that can be done now and Cleveland are already in a very tough spot as they head to Indiana for two games.

Last year the Indiana Pacers upset the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and they have all of the momentum after Tyrese Haliburton's three pointer to win Game 2 by a single point. That point gives Indiana a huge advantage in the Series and they are in a good spot considering how well recent Game 3 hosts have done.

Small home underdogs have also had a lot of success in recent seasons in the Second Round of the Playoffs and there is no doubting that all of the momentum looks to be with a healthy and deep Indiana rotation.

Backing the home team with the points does offer some appeal, but there has to be a respect for the Number 1 Seed who had looked the better team for much of the last game in the Series. Losing will have stung and the Cleveland Cavaliers have to find a way to turn things around, although that challenge is much more difficult on the road.

Instead of backing a side, the suggestion is to play the 'under' despite the really unfortunate way Game 2 surpassed the total set- the officials became very whistle happy and that led to a combined sixty-five Free Throws being taken and 51 points were scored this way. You have to believe those taking charge will be aware of those numbers, especailly the fact that Cleveland had more attempts in Game 2 than both teams combined in Game 1.

Tougher plays being allowed may just keep that scoring down and the 'under' has gone 13-4 in Game 3 in the last seventeen occasions when a team has had a 2-0 lead. The 'under' is 19-9 in this Game in the Second Round and this has been the play in the next game of a Second Round Series when the previous game was decided by less than 11 points.

That trend is 1-2 so far in 2025, but remains a strong play at 35-20-1 in the Second Round and this may be a game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers that have Defensive units come up on top with potential fatigue building up.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Game 3 Pick: They will not have been happy with the performance in Game 1 and the Oklahoma City Thunder came out and showed why they are considered favourites to win the NBA Championship in their response in Game 2.

The Thunder came out and punched the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets right in the mouth from the opening tip and they were relentless in their play. Putting together a Playoff best 87 first half points, the Thunder controlled the game from opening tip to final whistle and the crushing victory has levelled up the Series before it heads to Colorado for two games.

No one will be panicking in Denver- the Nuggets know a two point win like they had in Game 1 or a 43 point win secured by the Thunder equates to a game each and it will all be about making adjustments for when the Series hits their home.

Nikola Jokic was not able to have the same impact in the second game of the Series as the Oklahoma City Thunder changed things up to guard him, while the feeling will also be that he is not likely to be called for two Offensive Fouls at home. Those led to an early ejection, but that may not be bad news for the Nuggets with Game 2 out of hand and Jokic being able to wash that off and get ready for this important game.

Winning would just keep the pressure on the Oklahoma City Thunder and this Denver team are capable as they have shown in the post-season already. However, they will need more from the role players being back at home and the reality is that they will need some help from the Thunder.

Last year the Playoff pressure was too much for Oklahoma City to handle, but they showed in Game 2 that this is a confident team that will have grown from the experience and the layers are wary of the Number 1 Seed.

They are right to respect them and the Thunder have the capabilities of taking games away from opponents very, very quickly.

It is always more challenging on the road and the Thunder only beat the Memphis Grizzlies by a combined 8 points in their two road wins in the First Round. Playing in Denver is that much more challenging with the conditions in mind and the Nuggets did win three of their four home games with the LA Clippers in the First Round to move into this Series.

In recent Second Round Playoff history, teams that have been beaten in their previous game and then playing at home have been strong teams to back. However, those are only 1-2 against the spread in 2025 and Oklahoma City Thunder have all of the momentum having dominated to such an extent on Wednesday evening.

Road favourites of at least 5 points are 7-2-1 against the spread in the Second Round of the post-season since 2013 and the Thunder can regain home court advantage at their first attempt.

Saturday 10th May

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Game 3 Pick: Over the last couple of years, the Boston Celtics have walked with the mantra that this is a team that will live or die by the three point shot.

In 2024 they won the NBA Championship and Boston average 17 made threes at just shy of 37% hit rate in 2025 so their approach to Basketball has long felt justified.

Two games into the Second Round Series with the New York Knicks and there are now some huge questions being asked of the approach being taken by the team.

They are 2-0 down in the Series having had a couple of historical collapses- in both games the Boston Celtics have led by 20 points deep into the Third Quarter and failed to win either, becoming the first Playoff team to blow that margin of lead in consecutive post-season games.

Jayson Tatum described the second loss as 'inexcusable', especially as the pattern was eerily similar to the way Boston blew Game 1. They failed to hit a single Field Goal for a stretch of over eight minutes in the Fourth Quarter and ultimately that allowed the Knicks to hang around, rally and then score a couple of late Free Throws and make a big Defensive block to take a solid grip of the Series.

After a 15/60 effort from three point range in Game 1, Boston were 10/40 in Game 2 and the really big concern for the Celtics is the amount of open looks that were being missed. Failure to understand that and attempt to attack the rim meant the shooting was frigid at a key time for the second game in a row and there is a lot of pressure on the Celtics to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole.

For starters no NBA team have won a Series from 0-3 behind and the Boston Celtics will be well aware that none of the last five defending Champions have been past the Second Round the following year with four of those losing in this Round.

In saying all that, the Boston Celtics have to still be reminding themselves that they must have done something right to have 20 point leads in back to back games. Adjustments may be more to do with how they manage the game state when things do become a little icy from outside the three point arc and the Celtics will feel the Series can still be salvaged right now.

The New York Knicks have to be incredibly happy with how the first two games in the Series have gone and they will be hoping to have more consistent showings for the full four Quarters when playing two games at Madison Square Garden. Despite the obvious positives, the Knicks will know how quickly the outlook would change if they are not able to win at least one of the next two games at home and so there is some pressure on them too.

Players have stepped up at key times and the squad have come together to finally win some big games and that has to have boosted confidence.

Being at home will really help, but the Knicks will be aware that they still need to do more having been given considerable help by Boston to win both games.

With expectations being raised, it could be challenging for the Knicks to contain an angry Boston team that will be looking to remind everyone why they are Champions. You cannot expect the Celtics to continue to shoot as poorly from the three point arc as they have been, especially not with some of the open looks the team have been getting, and a Champions response is expected.

The Celtics are in a tough spot after the way things have developed in the Series, but they could become the latest road favourite of at least 5 points to display why the layers have so much faith in them. Assuming the team that finished with the second best record cannot keep blowing big leads, the Boston Celtics may get this Series moving back in their direction by taking Game 3 at The Garden.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors Game 3 Pick: They may have won Game 1 even after Steph Curry went down with an injury, but the Golden State Warriors are well aware of the challenges they face without their premier Offensive player. News has come out that Curry is set to miss at least the two games to be played at home in the Series with the hope he can suit up for Game 5, and so the Warriors have to find a way to score enough points to stay in the Series before he can return.

Game 1 was won thanks to the strong Defensive effort, along with the poor shooting produced by the Minnesota Timberwolves, but all of the Golden State fears came true in Game 2.

The Warriors only scored six fewer points in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but this time the Minnesota Timberwolves came out much stronger Offensively and took the game away from Golden State to level the Series. A much more efficient day shooting the three ball helped the Timberwolves as they got back to doing what they have for much of the season, and Minnesota will feel a lot better knowing Anthony Edwards avoided what looked like a Series-changing injury in the victory.

One day of rest between games will still be time to make adjustments, especially for the Golden State Warriors- they know that without Curry, the Timberwolves can put their strongest Defenders onto the likes of Jimmy Butler and Buddy Hield and that made it even more difficult for Golden State to generate enough points to remain competitive.

Draymond Green was frustrated with the officiating in Game 2, and also had a back and forth with a fan who had to be ejected, but the Warriors need one of their veterans to focus on the Basketball and keep the team ticking over until Steph Curry can return.

This is a big opportunity for the Timberwolves considering what they can do on the Offensive side of the court, but they have to stay focused. There is plenty of experience in the rotation after reaching the Western Conference Finals twelve months ago and Minnesota have the momentum.

Much like the Celtics and Thunder, Minnesota are favoured by the amount of points where road teams have had success in the Second Round of the Playoffs over the last twelve years. They have the momentum of the win in Game 2 and the Timberwolves have the shooters that can take this game away from an Offensively-challenged host.

You cannot dismiss how well teams who have lost their last game and then play at home have performed in the Second Round of the post-season, but the Timberwolves have a significant edge with Steph Curry missing from the home rotation and they can regain home court advantage in Game 3.

Sunday 11th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Game 4 Pick: They have contained Nikola Jokic as well as they would have wanted, but the Oklahoma City Thunder will be very disappointed that they are still 2-1 down in this Western Conference Second Round Series.

They played well in Game 3, although more can be expected from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but it was not well enough and the defeat will have stung.

Bouncing back was the task when dropping Game 1 and that is the same challenge for the Thunder in Game 4 as they look to return home with the Series level. Falling 3-1 behind would have many of the Thunder players and fans thinking back twelve months when they were upset in this Round as the Number 1 Seed and so there is pressure on the top Seed.

Being at home has helped the role players have a bigger impact on Game 3 and that is encouraging for the Denver Nuggets as they bid for the upset. While Nikola Jokic will continue to attract the Defenders, it is up to the likes of Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr to punish the Thunder by knocking down their shots.

Denver will know that the Oklahoma City Thunder are likely going to pose a much sterner test Offensively than they offered in Game 3 and especially with Gilgeous-Alexander to offer much more than he did. He has shown all season that he can recover from tough outings, as have the team, and the Thunder may be the latest big road favourite to produce a win.

They failed in that spot in Game 3, but Game 4 favourites have been on a very good run in the Second Round of the post-season.

It also should be noted that teams leading the Series going into Game 4 are on a 11-25-1 run against the spread and the top Seed is sure to be much more focused to turn this Series back around.

Last year, teams that had lost their previous game and then played on the road finished with an 8-4 record against the spread- teams in that spot are 2-0 against the spread this season and the Oklahoma City Thunder may keep that perfect record moving through another game.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: After the way Game 2 ended, there was never going to be any let up from the Cleveland Cavaliers even when building a huge lead in Game 3. The top Seed could not afford to drop to 0-3 in the Second Round Series and Donovan Mitchell refused to let that happen.

Importantly for the Cavaliers, they had Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter all back and contributing and it does feel the Series has shifted in favour of Cleveland even as they trail.

A day of rest between games is perhaps not ideal, but those three players look to have come out of Game 3 without picking up any new issues and that should mean Cleveland are looking to pick up from where they left off.

All of the adjustments have to be made by the Indiana Pacers- there is this sense that the big comeback in Game 2 has papered over some of the problems they are having. They have clearly been the poorer of the two teams over the last couple of games, and Indiana cannot expect for Cleveland to blow a big lead as they did in Game 2 with the depth in the rotation now back closer to where they would like.

Tyrese Haliburton has to do more if the Pacers are going to win this Series and all of the momentum is now against them.

As mentioned in the other game to be played on Sunday, teams leading a Series have not been very good in Game 4 in the Second Round, while the favourites have tended to come out strong in this spot.

Big road favourites have tended to come out strong in the Second Round of the post-season and the Cleveland Cavaliers should return home with this Series squared up.

Monday 12th May

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Game 4 Pick: Back to back poor shooting days cost the Boston Celtics as they fell into a 0-2 hole, but they are defending Champions and there has not been a sense of panic around the team. Instead the demands were to show better and the Celtics bounced back to crush the New York Knicks in Game 3 and avoid having to become the first NBA team to win a Series from 0-3 behind.

One win will have Boston feeling more settled, but they are back out at Madison Square Garden on Monday for Game 4 and there is still some pressure on the team.

Credit has to be given to the Coaching staff and the players for coming out in Game 3 and getting to the rim for easy two pointers rather than settling for threes from the opening tip. It has been a real feeling that Boston lost the first two games of this Series by failing to attack the basket and earning some easier points as the three pointers were failing to drop and that execution in Game 3 might have opened things up for the shooters.

Boston still chucked up 40 three pointers, but the players managed to hit 20 of them having been restricted to 25% from the distance prior to that.

They will need to make sure they avoid going through the stretches of misses that have been a feature of the first two games, but Boston will certainly take some confidence from the fact they have been dominant in all three games played.

This is something that the New York Knicks will have to change if they are going to make the Eastern Conference Finals- becoming the first team to win consecutive Playoff games when trailing by at least 20 points might have papered over some of the cracks that had the Knicks dropping into such a hole and the Game 3 defeat is a reminder of how much better they need to be to close out the defending Champions.

Karl-Anthony Towns is going to have to play through the pain having picked up a hand injury, while the New York Knicks just have to find a way to slow down the Celtics when they do get into a rhythm.

Big comebacks are memorable and will excite the fans, but the Knicks cannot keep getting themselves into a tough position within games. That is the challenge for the home team against an opponent that has matched up very well with New York all season.

Road favourites of at least 5 points have improved to 9-2-2 against the spread in the Second Round of the Playoffs since 2013 and the Boston Celtics should come out with plenty of confidence after finally holding onto a big lead earned.

As with the first two Game 4s being played, New York have to overcome a really big trend that has developed against teams leading a Series through three games.

Barring plenty of help from the Boston Celtics, that may be asking too much of this current New York Knicks team and the road team can level the Series up before returning home later this week.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors Game 4 Pick: A three pointer with less than 5 seconds remaining in Game 3 meant the game finished as a push when it came to the early lines handed out by Vegas. The Minnesota Timberwolves will not care less about that and the most important outcome for them on Saturday evening was making sure they had taken back home court advantage that had been lost in Game 1 of the Series.

The Golden State Warriors are trying to find a way to keep this Series alive until Steph Curry is able to return and they put a lot of emphasis on a physical Defensive performance.

Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga both had big Offensive performances, but the support around them was not good enough to make up for the absence of Curry. Some of the role players are going to have to do more after Golden State failed to hit 100 points for the third time in a row in the Series and the Minnesota Timberwolves have shown they can stand up to the physical test.

It will feel important for the Timberwolves to try and close this Series before Steph Curry can return and offer his team a huge boost in confidence.

He is expected to miss Game 4 and the hope is that Steph Curry can be back when the Series moves back to Minnesota, but the hope for the Warriors is that they are at 2-2 and not facing an elimination game. That may mean Curry wanting to push through and return, although that is not always ideal when dealing with a sore hamstring.

Before all that, the Warriors have to make the adjustments to try and knock Minnesota out of their stride, but it feels a tough ask.

The Timberwolves have shown they can win in a couple of different ways and the health of the team has to give them the advantage. Teams leading a Series have not been at their best in Game 4 of the Second Round, but the Timberwolves are another big road favourite and those teams are still getting on top in this Round.

Game 3 winners have produced a 14-6 record against the spread in Game 4 across the last twenty attempts and the Minnesota Timberwolves can move to the brink of reaching the Western Conference Finals for a second year in a row.

MY PICKS: 04/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

05/05 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

05/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

06/05 Cleveland Cavaliers-Indiana Pacers Under 229.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

06/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

07/05 Boston Celtics - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

07/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

08/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/05 Indiana Pacers-Cleveland Cavaliers Under 229.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

10/05 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

11/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

11/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

12/05 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Second Round: 4-11-1, - 7.27 Units (16 Units Staked, - 45.44% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs 2024- Conference Semi Final Picks Game 1-4 (May 4-13)

There are two Game 6's to be played on Friday 3rd May, but two of the Conference Semi Finals have been set without needing a decider and teams will begin to smell an opportunity to win a NBA Championship.

Even now, it is very difficult to look past defending Champions Denver Nuggets and the team with the best record in the regular season Boston Celtics, but PlayOff Series can build the pressure and the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder really impressed through the First Round.

The exit of the Milwaukee Bucks has to be considered a positive for the Celtics and it does feel that their place in the NBA Finals is very much in their own hands- if Boston play well, they will be almost impossible to beat over a best of seven setting, but games are played on the court and not on paper and there was a similar inevitability about them last year before the Eastern Conference Finals defeat to the Miami Heat.

As with the First Round of the PlayOffs, the Conference Semi Final Picks will be placed in two threads with the first four games of the Series placed in this one.

NBA Conference Semi Final Picks- Games 1-4 (May 4th-13th)

Saturday 4th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Losing at the Denver Nuggets last month meant the Minnesota Timberwolves fell behind in the race to secure the top Seed in the Western Conference. The expectation was that the win for the Nuggets would mean the defending Champions secured the top Seed instead, but they suffered a surprising loss meaning they entered the PlayOffs as the Number 2 Seed.

It also means that the Nuggets and Timberwolves were in the same half of the Bracket on the way to the NBA Finals and this is perhaps a match up that the latter were hoping for more than Denver may have been.

The four regular season games were split with two wins apiece, and it should be noted that the two Minnesota wins were in blow out fashion, while the Denver Nuggets had to fight and claw for their two wins.

Ultimately the PlayOff experiences of the Denver Nuggets has to be a factor in this best of seven Series, as will the fact that they have the home court advantage.

They might not have been at their best in the First Round, but some of that may have been down to the Nuggets wanting to hide what they want to do the further they get into the PlayOffs. Beating the Los Angeles Lakers has been very common for the Nuggets over the last fourteen months and so they will have felt they did not have to be at their best, although the healthy of Jamal Murray is a potential concern.

On the other hand, Minnesota were in very strong form as they swept past the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves have long been making moves to be competitive against the Denver Nuggets, the leading team in the Western Conference. They have shown they can do that in the regular season and the Timberwolves may have enough Defensive intensity to give the Offensive players a chance to keep this one close.

Favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals are just 4-20-1 against the spread when asked to lay fewer than 6 points and the Minnesota Timberwolves can come out strong in this Series. Winning outright will not be easy for any team visiting Denver, but the Timberwolves have done that in the regular season and the momentum with which they beat the Phoenix Suns in the First Round can certainly see them ride to a very competitive Game 1 performance against the defending Champions on Saturday.

Monday 6th May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Both of these teams came through testing First Round Series against two Eastern Conference rivals that entered the season with big expectations.

Injuries hurt the Milwaukee Bucks at a bad time, while the Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps looking to make a real move towards a NBA Championship in twelve months time, but take nothing away from the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks who had to come through in six games.

Both will now feel a big opportunity is in front of them when they meet in this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series, although the Boston Celtics remain red-hot favourites to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

That is a matter for another day and the focus here is for the Pacers and Knicks to make a strong start when Game 1 is played at Madison Square Garden on Monday.

The Knicks are likely going to be favourites for the Series with their grizzled team being pumped forward by Jalen Brunson's huge PlayOff output. However, the Indiana Pacers have won two of three regular season games against the Knicks, including winning at The Garden in February, and this is a team that has plenty of Offensive firepower across the starting line up and bench to believe they can challenge New York.

Home favourites in Game 1 of the Semi Final Series have not had things all of their own way in recent times and the Denver Nuggets have already dropped the first game in their Series. The line has proved to be a key indicator as to how Game 1 is played out, but it is dropping as far as the host New York Knicks are concerned and the Indiana Pacers certainly look capable of keeping this one closer than expected.

Much will depend on how effective the Pacers are at closing down the shot window for those not called Jalen Brunson.

If they can do that, Indiana may have enough Offensively to keep the scoreboard ticking over and eventually this may lead to a narrow, tight, competitive game. It should come down to late in the Fourth Quarter, but the Pacers have shown they can match up well with this New York team and they may be worth backing with the points in Game 1 of this Conference Semi Final Series.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Two of the four Conference Semi Final Series will not have gotten underway when the Denver Nuggets look to rally against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 2.

The defending Champions have not been finding their best form in the PlayOffs, but were still able to ease to a 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round. However, they were well aware that they needed to be better when facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the Nuggets were not able to raise their game as they were well beaten at home in Game 1.

For the Timberwolves, it has continued a smooth start to the post-season with five straight wins and none of those have been particularly competitive. For much of this season it was clear that Minnesota were ready to take recent experiences and make the leap forward, but not many would have tipped up Anthony Edwards to have moved his game to the level where he has it right now.

It was his 43 points that sparked the Game 1 win, although Edwards will point out to some strong support from his team-mates as the Timberwolves eased to the victory. Adjustments have to be expected from the Denver Nuggets, especially in what feels like a very important spot before travelling to Minnesota to play Game 3 and 4.

Jamal Murray's calf issue is becoming a real concern and you can see it is limiting his impact, while also putting a bit more pressure on Nikola Jokic. The latter is likely going to be named regular season MVP again, but Jokic will want to be a bit more efficient than he was in Game 1 having scored 32 points, but only after throwing up 25 shots.

If Murray continues to be limited, some of the other players will have to step up for the Nuggets who found themselves in an early hole in the opening game. A faster start will be key and you have to expect much better from the defending Champions.

Home teams in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have really put on a clinic in recent times and they are 11-1 against the spread over the last three seasons. Those favoured by fewer than 7 points as hosts in Game 2 have put together a 16-4 run against the spread, while those who lost their previous game and are then playing at home have bounced back with a 19-8 record against the spread since The Bubble.

The Timberwolves do match up well with Denver and may feel they have a big opportunity to take a firm grip on this Series, but there may also be a feeling that they have done their job by at least splitting the first two on the road. With adjustments made for Anthony Edwards, the Denver Nuggets can at least bounce back and earn a win and a cover.

Tuesday 7th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: They have been amongst the favourites to win the NBA Championship all season, but the Boston Celtics have moved to the top of the queue and are just evens to pick up the title in June. It is going to build a bit more pressure on a core of players that know they will be considered 'failures' if they are not able to finally help the Celtics become NBA Champions again, and that may ultimately be the only factor that holds them back.

On paper the Celtics have looked the best team all season and they produced a dominant win over the Miami Heat in the First Round to avenge the Eastern Conference Finals defeat from last year.

They are now well rested ahead of the Conference Semi Final Series, while the opponent has just finished off a First Round Series needing a Game 7 victory at home.

The Cleveland Cavaliers looked to be heading out of the PlayOffs in the First Round for a second consecutive season when trailing in the first half of that Game 7 against the Orlando Magic, but did enough to rally. Home advantage proved to be the key in a Series where all seven games were won by the host, but this is a significant upgrade when it comes to challenges being faced.

Jarrett Allen has missed three games in a row and could have to sit again, while Donovan Mitchell is playing through an injury as he continues to lead the team. Some may feel that the Cavaliers have nothing to lose in this Series as the significant underdog, but making this competitive might be considered a success at this point.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, but they will feel they still have the depth to cover his absence with the hope he will be back for the Eastern Conference Finals.

Being rested might have slowed some of the rhythm, but Cleveland are going to have to overcome the historical trend of winning a Game 7 and then going into the next Series- those teams have tended to be on the losing side of Game 1 of the next Series, while both home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to be the ones likely to cover.

There is no doubt that this is a huge spread, but Cleveland were blown out in two of their three road losses against the Orlando Magic in the First Round. All four Boston wins over Miami were by at least 14 point margins in the First Round and the feeling is that the Celtics might be able to pull clear in the second half of this one against a banged up and potentially fatigued opponent.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: Jason Kidd has signed an extension to Coach the Dallas Mavericks moving forward and his team just fought through a First Round Series with the veteran loaded Los Angeles Clippers. The finishing touches on that Series were produced in Game 6 and the Mavericks have benefited from being given a bit of time to rest and recuperate ahead of a massive Conference Semi Final Series against the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

This rest period is key with Luka Doncic feeling his knee and admitting that he is fighting through the pain in the PlayOffs. The top Mavericks player has stated that he would have been resting and sitting out games in the regular season with the same issue and Doncic's health is going to be a key factor within this Series.

Tim Hardaway Jr was also banged up in the First Round, but the rest looks to have done him good and he should be suited up for Game 1. However, the Mavericks have lost a couple of key contributors with injuries suffered in the First Round and the depth of this Dallas team is going to be tested.

Experience may be something the Mavericks feel they can use to their advantage when preparing to face the Oklahoma City Thunder who have a young team that is breaking new ground.

However, any hope that the top Seed in the Western Conference may slip in the PlayOffs may have faded a little bit after the Thunder crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round. The feeling is that there is still more to come from this young team who have moved into third favourites to win the NBA Championship.

Oklahoma City will know they got the better of the Dallas Mavericks in three of the four regular season games, although the last of those was when the Mavericks were resting starters. Even so, the Thunder have that mental edge and they will feel they have the enthusiasm and the match ups on the court that should swing this Series in their own favour.

Small home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to struggle to cover and we have seen that twice already in this post-season when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers covered as smallish road underdogs.

That is something to keep in mind, but this Oklahoma City team may be able to just hassle the slightly banged up star player for the Dallas Mavericks and try and force Luka Doncic to get others to win the game. Kyrie Irving is capable, but the Mavericks will go as far as that tandem can carry them and this Thunder team may have the depth and energy to come through with a win and cover in Game 1.

Wednesday 8th May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: There were one or two controversial calls at the end of Game 1 which has left the Indiana Pacers frustrated as they were narrowly beaten by the New York Knicks. They had their chances to steal away home court, which would have added to the frustration levels, but there is no time to overthink matters and the Pacers will be looking to respond.

Adjustments have to be made when Game 2 is played at The Garden on Wednesday- the Pacers will want to find a way to get more out of Tyrese Haliburton who was restricted to just 6 points in Game 1, while the efficient shooting of the Knicks from the three point arc will have to be better managed.

Slowing down Jalen Brunson has been an issue for the teams in recent outings and he once again propelled the New York Knicks, although he was given good support in Game 1 to help overcome the first half deficit and earn the victory.

It was perhaps a surprise that the Knicks used a small rotation in Game 1 with the bench players not having much of an impact in the outcome. You have to imagine they will lean on those players a bit more in Game 2 with just a day of rest between these first two games in New York, while the Knicks will also be keen on making one or two adjustments to improve their Defensive effort.

If they can do that, the Knicks have to be very confident in winning Game 2 and taking a real grip of this Conference Semi Final Series before the move to Indiana. Over the last couple of seasons, New York have been very good at Madison Square Garden in the PlayOffs and so they will believe they can hold serve again.

A bigger question is whether the Knicks will cover in Game 2 having come up short in Game 1.

Hosts have been very strong at home in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals in recent years, but the Denver Nuggets fell in that spot on Monday. Teams that have lost on the road and playing again on the road have a 7-20 record against the spread in the last twenty-seven tries and those trends really work against the Indiana Pacers, who put in a huge effort to come up short in the opening game in the Series.

This is a significant spread, but hosts favoured by fewer than 7 points are 16-5 against the spread in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Final Series and this time the play is to back New York to make it 2-0 with a more convincing win than the first.

Thursday 9th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After crushing the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1, the Boston Celtics have only hardened as favourites to win the Eastern Conference.

There was so much to like about the Boston Celtics performance in the 25 point win, but the scary part for opponents is that the team will know there is also some room for improvement.

Jayson Tatum was not at his shooting best and the Celtics are still looking for a way to get their best player going, while they hit just 39% of their three point efforts. Jaylen Brown had a big outing and Derrick White is playing hugely influential and efficient minutes for the Celtics, but more might be ready to come from Tatum as teams perhaps try and lock Brown and White down and leave that much more room for the top player to exploit.

Adjustments will have to be made by the Cleveland Cavaliers if they are even going to make this a competitive Series, but they look to be worn down. Donovan Mitchell emptied the tank in Game 1, but he is clearly not at 100%, while the Cavaliers are really missing Jarrett Allen who was absent for the last game having missed several games at the end of the First Round Series against the Orlando Magic.

The support without Allen has not really been good enough and the Cavaliers have really struggled to compete on the road in the post-season when the role players tend to have a few more difficulties. Losing games is one thing, but Cleveland have suffered big road losses as the Defensive unit have slowed down and the Offensive firepower outside of Donovan Mitchell has remained inconsistent.

Once again the Boston Celtics are a big home favourite and those have not tended to be the best teams to back to cover lines above 8.5 points. However, Boston did that comfortably in Game 1 and even a slightly more efficient three point shooting day will make it very difficult to Cleveland to make enough adjustments to get this one much closer on the scoreboard.

Limited rest time between games does not favour the Cavaliers and teams who have been beaten by 15 or more points are just 7-14 against the spread in the last twenty-one games in that spot in the Conference Semi Finals.

Hosts in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have tended to be more focused when it comes to doing enough to cover the lines set and it is very hard to get in the way of this Boston team, even with the spread moving a couple more points wider than it was in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: There is much to admire about the way the Oklahoma City Thunder are able to put their Offensive rhythm together on the court, but this is a young team that is dealing with the PlayOffs as if they have a lot more experience than they actually do.

While the Offensive firepower will make the headlines, the Thunder are priding themselves on the kind of Defensive showings that saw finish amongst the elite in the NBA in the regular season.

PlayOffs do have a different feel, but the Thunder are showing maturity to continue to perform at the level they have and they have yet to give up more than 95 points in any of the five post-season games played. Even that tally was only reached by the Dallas Mavericks in a blowout win for the Thunder in Game 1 and the feeling is that this is going to be a very difficult Series for the Mavericks unless they can get very healthy, very quickly.

Luka Doncic did not want make excuses for his performance in Game 1, but it is clear that he is another superstar playing through the pain to try and lead his team. A 6/19 showing, which included going 1/8 from the three point arc, is not going to cut the mustard for Dallas if they are going to make a run in this Series and they will be hoping a day between games is enough time for Doncic to be much stronger.

It may be a forlorn hope with the Oklahoma City Thunder having the energy and the Defensive qualities to really make things difficult for not only Doncic, but also Kyrie Irving. The latter was more efficient in Game 1, but Dallas may not have the depth to compete with the Thunder if the Number 1 Seed maintains their high Defensive levels, which in turn is sparking them on the Offensive side of the court.

After narrowly winning their opening PlayOff game, the Thunder have rolled in their last two at home and they certainly have the momentum to take a firm grip of this Series.

As mentioned in the Boston Celtics Game 2 preview, teams playing behind a 15 plus point margin of victory have followed up with a very strong covering performance in their next game and the same situation applies for the Thunder. Game 2 hosts also have a strong covering record in recent years in the Conference Semi Final Series, while those favoured by fewer than 7 points have a 16-4 record against the spread in Game 2 of this Round before the Knicks try and beat the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.

Jason Kidd will make some adjustments and this is not expected to be a blowout again, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown they can get out in transition behind strong Defensive performances and that may see them edge past this line to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.

Friday 10th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: The 1990s saw the New York Knicks reach the NBA Finals twice, albeit falling short of a Championship each time, but it has been a long time since this fanbase can be as excited about a team as they can be now. After reaching the Conference Semi Finals last year, the Knicks have rallied for a 2-0 lead in the same Round over the Indiana Pacers and will believe that the development of this team will continue in a positive direction.

However, it has not been perfect for the Knicks over the first few days of this Conference Semi Final Series, despite holding serve twice at Madison Square Garden.

Injuries have really been piling up and the team have lost the likes of Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season, which means the bench depth is simply not where it once was. To make matters worse, OG Anunoby produced 28 points in 28 minutes in Game 2, but picked up a hamstring injury which means he will be doubtful for Game 3 and potentially longer.

Jalen Brunson missed almost the entirety of the Second Quarter with an injury of his own, but he was able to play through the pain to help the Knicks fight back from a big deficit and beat the Indiana Pacers. Again, you have to wonder how healthy Brunson can be with a day of rest between games and the worry for the New York Knicks is that their starters are having to play significant minutes already.

That feels unsustainable for the duration of the PlayOffs, but the Knicks have to be so proud of the way they have been able to dictate whatever they have wanted to do on the Offensive side of the court. Doing the same on the road compared with at home is the challenge for the team and New York will have to expect a big reaction from the Indiana Pacers, who have felt hard done by when it comes to late game officiating.

Head Coach Rick Carlisle did not hide his displeasure at the end of Game 2 and the Pacers will feel they should have taken at least one of the first two games. There wasn't much wrong with Indiana Offensively in Game 2 and they have a deeper rotation than the New York Knicks with key contributions coming off the bench, but the Pacers know they need to make adjustments Defensively to try and slow down this Knicks attack.

Being back at home will help and Carlisle has put some pressure on the referees by suggesting there has been some 'big market bias' at play in the first two games. The Pacers have won all three PlayOff games played here and the last two have been blowout wins, while those teams coming off a loss in the Conference Semi Finals and then playing at home have been strong to back when it comes to the betting window.

Game 3 hosts have bounced back to produce a 6-2 record against the spread over the last couple of seasons and so the Indiana Pacers will be feeling they can get the better of a short-handed opponent. This may feel like the game in which the Knicks perhaps take a breath before pushing again and the Indiana Pacers may be able to win and cover at home to halve the deficit in the Series.

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: After coming up short in Game 1, the expectation was that the Denver Nuggets would just remind people why they are the defending Champions.

Instead, the blowout in Game 2 puts the Champs in a position where they might not be able to return home during this Series as they look to at least split the two games to be played in Minnesota.

This looks a big challenge against a Timberwolves team that have had all of the answers on both sides of the court and who have won all six PlayOff games with the closest margin of victory being 6 points. Four of those six wins have been blowout victories and the Timberwolves will be playing at home with the confidence of believing that they have shown they match up as well with the Denver Nuggets as they look to do on paper.

Nikola Jokic was awarded the regular season MVP again, but he has been massively contained in the first two games and the Nuggets need to find a way to release him. The Timberwolves are harassing Jokic into poor shots and he is just 15/38 in the first two games from the field, while the supporting cast are not producing efficiently enough for Minnesota to have to leave Nikola Jokic.

One of the big issues has been the injury that Jamal Murray is playing through and he had a terrible Game 2.

At this point of the season, Murray is not going to get a lot better and so the likes of Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have much more pressure on their shoulders. Shooting the three ball well enough has been a massive problem for the Nuggets through the PlayOffs and while it was too much for the Los Angeles Lakers, the Minnesota Timberwolves are showing why they are a different prospect.

Minnesota are doing what they have all season and they have shown a real depth in the rotation with players coming off the bench and really pushing them forward. Anthony Edwards may be the star, but his role players are producing around him and the Timberwolves have shown a huge intensity Defensively which has sparked them on the Offensive side of the court.

Hosts in Game 3 have been on a solid two season tear and the Timberwolves certainly have momentum behind them.

It would be foolish to write off the defending Champins, but the Denver Nuggets will feel they are already behind the black ball in this Series. Winning Game 3 is almost imperative considering no NBA team has managed to win a best of seven from 0-3 down, but it will need a significant change in fortunes for that to happen.

At least the Nuggets have had a bit more time to prepare with Game 3 being played after three rest days following Game 2, but even then, Jamal Murray is unlikely to be at full strength and the Timberwolves can keep marching forward.

Saturday 11th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A remarkable display of three point shooting helped the Dallas Mavericks edge past the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 to level this Conference Semi Final Series. Backing that up over a long Series is going to be tough, but the Mavericks will return home for the next two games with a big chance to take control of the Series.

The Thunder will have been disappointed by the fact that the role players made such an impact for the Mavericks, while they were not able to contain Luka Doncic nearly as well as they did in Game 1.

There will be adjustments made by Oklahoma City, but they may have big decisions to make if the Dallas role players start Game 3 as hot as they finished in Game 2. If those players are hitting their shots at such an efficient rate again, the Thunder may have to sap off the likes of Kyrie Irving and Doncic, but in turn that may free up the top two players for the Number 5 Seed.

It is something that will be discussed before the Thunder make the relatively short journey to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday.

When the three point shot is landing, it makes it that much more difficult for teams to get out in transition and that may have contributed to the struggles that Oklahoma City had Offensively. Instead of facing a Dallas Defensive unit scrambling backwards, they were facing a set unit and that saw the Thunder's three point shooting dip in Game 2 from the output of the first game in this Series.

Picking a winner in Game 3 looks tough with the Dallas Mavericks down as small home favourites.

Instead the focus may be on the total point line, which has moved up by a couple of points from Game 2- the feeling is that the Mavericks will not be able to hit the three pointers nearly as efficiently as they did last time out, while the 'under' is 16-8 in the last twenty-four Game 3s played in the Conference Semi Final Series before this season.

You do have to respect how well these two teams can play Offensively, but they are also competitive Defensive units and the adjustments made in the shift from Oklahoma City to Dallas may contribute to this total points line being a point or two high for the teams to combine and surpass.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Much like Game 2 of the First Round Series against the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics were beaten by a heavy dose of three point shooting, while their own shooters just struggled to make the impact expected.

And much like that Series, there will be no considerable panic inside the Boston locker room as they bid to regain home court advantage when visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 of this Conference Semi Final Series on Saturday.

Donovan Mitchell was in bullish mood after the win on Thursday and admitted 'whatever it takes' to win a game and protect home court is what the Cleveland Cavaliers have to put in. They only had two more three pointers in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but there is no doubting the improved efficiency between those games, and the sprinkling of luck of the bounce that seemed to go Cleveland's way.

Backing that up in Game 3 is the key, but a big reaction from the Boston Celtics has to be expected.

Jayson Tatum has yet to really get going in the post-season, but that has not been an issue when the rest of the squad have been producing at the level they have been. In Game 2, Tatum's struggles were clearer to see when the Celtics hit 8 three pointers compared with the 18 they put through the net in the first game of the Series.

Throughout the course of this season, we have only seen the Celtics prove time after time that efforts like Game 2 are an exception and they showed that in the First Round Series too. Expecting the Cavaliers to be as dominant from the three point line and the Boston Celtics to struggle as much as they did with good looks in Game 2 is perhaps asking too much and the Celtics can respond by taking back home court advantage in strong fashion.

We have not see a big road favourite of 5 or more points in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs for six years, but teams in that spot are 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight. The Celtics have shown they can wear down opponents with their shooting and the response should be immediate to the setback suffered on Thursday.

Sunday 12th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: Each of the first three games of this Conference Semi Final Series has come to a big moment at the latter end of the Fourth Quarter. The first two went in favour of the New York Knicks behind some controversial officiating, but Game 3 was won by the Indiana Pacers thanks to an unexpected player stepping up and hitting what was ultimately the game winning three pointer with seconds left in a tied game.

Andrew Nembhard had only scored two points during Game 3 and had been 1/7 from the field before launching a deep three pointer as the shot clock wound down. This has breathed new life into the Indiana Pacers after coming through a game that went back and forth throughout the 48 minutes played, but ultimately landed in their favour and halved the deficit in this Series.

The schedule is unrelenting at this time of the post-season and that means a day of rest for the players before they face each other again in Game 4.

OG Anunoby was a big loss for the New York Knicks and his status for Sunday is going to be a huge part of any potential outcome. Since signing with the Knicks, the team have built a very strong record with Anunoby in the lineup and asking Alec Burks and Donte DiVincenzo to shoot as efficiently for a second game in a row might be too much.

The latter is having a big Conference Semi Final Series and is 18/32 from the three point range so there may be more believe in DiVincenzo to maintain current standards. However, Jalen Brunson is clearly playing through the pain and Josh Hart continues to play huge minutes, which is not ideal for the Knicks unless they can close this Series very quickly.

Indiana are using a deeper rotation and they will feel the bench underperformed, even if the team won Game 3 when all is said and done. The Pacers will be looking for a bit more out of those role players having leaned on their top three names to carry them through until Nembhard made the biggest impact of the night.

The Pacers have momentum and teams that have won Game 3 have followed up by going 13-5 against the spread in Game 4. There is another trend going against the New York Knicks in Game 4 with teams leading a Conference Semi Final Series being 11-21-1 against the spread in this spot and the limited time to recover may just favour a deeper rotation being used by the Indiana Pacers.

Nothing has been easy for either team in this Series, but the momentum cannot be ignored after winning Game 3 in the manner they did and Indiana may just be able to head to Madison Square Garden with this one tied up at 2-2 with a win and cover.

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: After winning both road games to open this Conference Semi Final Series, the Minnesota Timberwolves returned to a party atmosphere ahead of Game 3.

However, getting too far ahead and dismissing the obvious threats of the Denver Nuggets, the defending Champions, is a mistake and the blowout win for the road team might just have reminded everyone that two more games still need to be won to eliminate them.

Jamal Murray looked to be out of sorts with an injury, but returned to form at a very good time and he was the spark that helped the Nuggets dominate Game 3. Efficient shooting makes it very difficult for the Timberwolves to get out in transition, when their Offensive decision making is most effective, and that all came together for Denver in the Game 3 win.

Nikola Jokic was as expected, but Murray's return to his best made it easier for the role players to find the open spaces on the court. This is key for the Denver Nuggets and they will be looking to ride the momentum into Game 4 knowing full well that teams leading the Conference Semi Final Series have struggled in this spot in recent times and those that won Game 3 have tended to come out on top in Game 4 too.

The Timberwolves will have been frustrated by their overall level as they were beaten in the PlayOffs for the first time in 2024 and this is going to be a real test of their character. The spread has dropped a couple of points from Game 3, which underlines the respect the oddsmakers have for the Nuggets, while we are going to learn a lot more about Minnesota in seeing how they respond to a first setback.

Ultimately they cannot have lost all belief seeing as they have a 2-1 lead in the Series and a win on Sunday would go a long way to making the Western Conference Finals.

Anthony Edwards was contained in Game 3, but the Timberwolves will be looking to make the adjustments that may just free him up, while the role players have to perform better than they did. The bench has been important for Minnesota, but they did not get the same production in the last game as they have in the first two and so there is going to be some work to do in order to get back on track.

Recent trends certainly favour the Denver Nuggets and it is always hard to oppose a team with the obvious qualities the defending Champions have.

However, this Timberwolves team is better than what they showed in Game 3 and the Conference Semi Final Series this season have seen teams bouncing back from blowout defeats. The same can be expected of the Minnesota Timberwolves as long as they make a more intense start to Game 4 and they can win and cover at home, even as a smaller home favourite.

Monday 13th May

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: Much like the First Round Series win over the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics just showed their Championship mettle to bounce back from a disappointing Game 2 loss with a crushing Game 3 win. The final margin may 'only' have been 13 points, but it was a game in which Boston dominated in the second half and has left the Cleveland Cavaliers scrambling for answers again.

Once again Donovan Mitchell powered the Cavaliers, but they were always unlikely to be as efficient from the three point arc as they were in Game 2. The players outside of Mitchell had issues finding their consistency and ultimately that is not going to get it done if the Boston Celtics are even having an average shooting day from three point range.

Jayson Tatum has perhaps not needed to dominate in the post-season right now, but he might have felt Game 3 was an important moment to remind everyone that he is the best player on the court. His 33 points were backed up by Jaylen Brown's 28 points and this time it was Jrue Holiday who was the role player that made the big plays around the top two names.

There is still room for Offensive improvement from the Boston Celtics, but this is a team that finished with the best record in the NBA thanks to their Defensive qualities too. It is those that are going to make it very difficult for Cleveland to win this Series, although the Cavaliers might receive the boost of having Jarrett Allen return having been close to being cleared ahead of Game 3.

We only have a day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, but that may be enough for Allen to make his return and try and give Cleveland the kind of spark they need. The reality is that Cleveland are going to have to find the lights out shooting of Game 2 at least three more times to win this Series, but that is a big ask of this team and the manner of the defeat on Saturday will have just reminded the team of the kind of mountain they need to climb.

As mentioned in other selections, teams that have won Game 3 have a strong record in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series.

The Celtics win and cover also means big road favourites of a least 5 points are now 7-1-1 against the spread in the last nine tries in the Conference Semi Finals and Boston are certainly capable of taking complete control of the Series by winning again in Cleveland on Monday.

Taking away Donovan Mitchell looks unlikely and not something Boston will concern themselves with, but they will continue to attack the role players and force them into bad shots. If they can do that, Boston are never that far away from putting on a strong Offensive clinic and they can win and cover this line for a second road game in a row.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: The less than 100% status of Luka Doncic had his status being listed as Questionable to suit up for the last couple of games. Each time he has been willing to play through the pain, but the most exciting factor for the Dallas Mavericks is that they have been able to support Doncic and ensure the team is leading this Conference Semi Final Series going into Game 4.

No one has scored more points for the Dallas Mavericks than PJ Washington in the last two games as they have moved 2-1 ahead of the Number 1 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Offensive Rebounding was a vital advantage for the Mavericks in the Game 3 win, while this young Thunder team have to make adjustments to just show a bit more consistency from the three point arc. They should be largely happy with what they have been able to achieve Defensively in this Series, but the Thunder know it will be easier to make stops if they can prevent buckets in quick transition and also prevent those Offensive boards that can make it very difficult to reset.

Picking a winner does not look easy with the Mavericks still going into this one as a narrow favourite, having been in the same position in the 5 point win on Saturday.

The narrow lean may be with the Dallas Mavericks considering how well Game 3 winners have performed in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series of recent times. However, those leading a Series have not played that well in this middle game of a best of seven and the spread is one that is narrow enough to make a case for either side.

Instead it may be best to go back to the same well as Game 3 and look for this Game 4 to fall below the total points like set.

It should be noted that the line has dropped considerably between games, but these two teams know they will go as far as the strong Defensive schemes can take them. Two of the three games would have fallen below the current line total and it still looks a touch higher than it perhaps should be in a pivotal game in this big Series.

MY PICKS: 04/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

06/05 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

06/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

07/05 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

07/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

08/05 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

11/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

11/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

12/05 Indiana Pacers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Boston Celtics - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Conference Semi Final Update: 9-7, + 1.23 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.69% Yield)

First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)