Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2026 (Monday 11th May)

The Rome Masters continues on Monday and this is the last big week on the Tour before the French Open.

Players will take part in events next week, but the majority of the top names will feel that the groundwork has been laid ahead of the second Grand Slam of the season.

Some of the leading contenders on both the ATP and WTA Tours are still going strong in Rome, which is an event played in conditions much more familiar to those who will be playing in Paris compared with the Madrid Masters. Personally it has also felt like the Rome Masters is more of an indicative tournament as to the kind of successes that could be had in Paris and could form part of a staking plan.

The opening selections from the tournament both came through in largely comfortable fashion and on Monday there are three Picks that can be read below.

Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Iva Jovic: Two American players meet in the Fourth Round in Rome and the experience of Coco Gauff should be a telling factor in the outcome of the contest.

There is no doubting the excitement around Iva Jovic and the potential she has, but the 18 year old is still going to be learning her trade on the clay courts. That is especially the case at this level having reached the French Open Doubles Final in her time in the Junior ranks, while Iva Jovic has only had one win against a player Ranked higher than Number 47 on the surface this season.

The two wins in Rome have been against compatriots, but neither McCartney Kessler nor Taylor Townsend can bring the credentials that Coco Gauff takes onto the court.

Coco Gauff is the defending French Open Champion and she has been amongst the best clay courters in the world on the WTA Tour.

Vulnerabilities remain with the second serve, but Gauff is very comfortable on the surface and she has won at least 50% of return points played on clay courts since the beginning of the 2024 season. That puts a huge amount of pressure on any opponent she faces and Iva Jovic is still going to be working on the serve and how to make the best use of that shot on this surface compared to the hard courts.

Every one of these kind of matches will help Jovic develop, but Coco Gauff should have enough to remind everyone of her threat to win the French Open again by producing a strong, solid win on Monday.

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: This portion of the clay court season is relatively short and so you can't always take numbers being produced by players on their own without any context.

Someone like Elise Mertens has been playing well all season and has the kind of tennis that should work on all surfaces- she has previously had solid runs on the clay courts and so has to be respected.

However, the numbers from the six matches played on the surface this season are so much higher than previous years that you do have to wonder if she can maintain current levels. Elise Mertens has beaten home favourite Jasmine Paolini in her run to the Fourth Round in Rome, but Paolini has been struggling for consistency and this match is against a player that has really strong clay court form since she joined the Tour.

Mirra Andreeva lost in the Madrid Final at the last 1000 tournament, but she has won a clay court title in 2026 and reached the Semi Final in Stuttgart at another big event.

The 19 year old now has an 82-19 career record on the clay and Mirra Andreeva has not been slowed down by taking part in the bigger events on the Tour.

The serve continues to be an important weapon for Mirra Andreeva, although she has to be working on her return to take the next step on this surface. Her best Grand Slam results have been at the French Open where she has reached the Semi Final and the Quarter Final in the last couple of years, but Andreeva knows that is when you need to step up even more if wanting a place in the Final and then to pick up the title in Paris.

The World Number 22 will cause problems, but the Elise Mertens second serve can become vulnerable and that may be the edge that helps Mirra Andreeva win outright and perhaps narrowly cover this spread.

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: You cannot ignore the fact that both of these players can be pretty erratic on the court, but the lack of recent tennis played by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has to be a factor.

He does have a terrible record against Andrey Rublev, but the last clay court meeting ended in a win for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Barcelona last year.

The Spaniard had not played since the Miami Masters and went 1-1 in Madrid at the last tournament, while Davidovich Fokina has already won a match here in Rome. However, it is a considerable challenge against someone like Andrey Rublev who reached the Final in Barcelona in April and who has long been pretty comfortable on the clay courts.

A lack of match competitiveness cannot be ignored, while Andrey Rublev holds wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Madrid Masters and Rome Masters in previous years.

Over the last twelve months, there have been signs that Andrey Rublev is getting back to something like his best tennis and he can battle through this Third Round match.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 2-0, + 1.57 Units (2 Units Staked, + 78.50% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 1-4 (Monday 4th May-Monday 11th May)

NBA Playoffs- Second Round Game 1-4 Picks

Outside events meant not having the same time as I would have expected to put the NBA Picks on the pages, but that does not mean that the Playoffs have been ignored.

Watching the New York Knicks power past the Atlanta Hawks as they did in the First Round has certainly raised hopes that the team can finally win the Eastern Conference again, while the upset produced by the Philadelphia 76ers over the Boston Celtics cleared the path to the Finals for a second season in a row.

It might have been even better for the Knicks if both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons had dropped Game 7s in the First Round, but those teams are alive and the winner will be a threat.

Over in the West, it feels like we are still on course to see the Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Series that everyone would have been hoping to be set for the Western Conference Finals.

Out of the two teams, the Spurs have more to do with the Series against the Minnesota Timberwolves potentially problematic as the Denver Nuggets found out in the First Round.

It should mean an interesting week to open these Second Round Series, while a new thread will be created for any Series that moves into Game 5 and beyond.

Friday 8th May

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: The run of blowout wins may have come to a conclusion in Game 2 of this Second Round Series, but the New York Knicks may take more out of the battling win than some of the previous victories. Being able to show you can dig in and win ugly when needed is never a negative achievement and instead will bolster the Knicks to push through and come out of the other side when games are tight and competitive.

Ultimately it has always been said that a blowout counts the same as a single point win and the New York Knicks have to be travelling to the Philadelphia 76ers feeling really good about being in a 2-0 lead.

It is Playoff time though and rarely do things happen smoothly at this stage of the season.

One of the key figures powering this Playoff run is OG Anunoby, but he suffered an injury late in Game 2 that leaves his participation as questionable when Game 3 is played on Friday. The Knicks may believe they can find a way to get through this Second Round Series without Anunoby and then give him ample time to prepare for the Eastern Conference Finals, but that looks like it will be a game time decision.

Replacing his production is not going to be easy, especially with the match up problem it has posed for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Miles McBride could be the beneficiary of any absence as far as Anunoby is concerned, and it is his Defensive talents that could help in continuing to slow down Tyrese Maxey. Josh Hart is another doubt for the New York Knicks as they look to return home with at least an opportunity to close the Series out back at Madison Square Garden next week.

Injuries have always been making a big impact in the post-season of US Sports and the Philadelphia 76ers will have little sympathy for the New York issues considering they played Game 2 without Joel Embiid. The status of their best player remains questionable for Game 3 with little time between these opening games in the Second Round Series and being without Embiid will put pressure on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George.

There was a feeling that the 76ers missed an opportunity to steal home court from the Knicks in Game 2 as they fell away Offensively in the Fourth Quarter of a tight game.

It remains one of the issues that the 76ers may struggle to overcome with too much reliance on the two players when Joel Embiid is on the sidelines- VJ Edgecombe has shown he can step up and should benefit from playing at home, but this is an Arena that could have plenty of noise for the New York Knicks, despite urges from the Philadelphia players to supporters to not sell their tickets to road fans.

The uncertainty around some of the key names does make it a tougher game to call, but the 'under' may be the play here.

The total was not surpassed in Game 2 as both teams showed off some of the Defensive talents and the potential absences of the likes of Anunoby and Embiid will have an impact on the Offensive schemes.

When one team is leading 2-0 in the Second Round of recent Playoffs, the under has been dominating with a 15-4 return from the last nineteen times we have seen this spot come up.

The layers are not finding it easy to separate the teams on the spread, which is a surprise considering how much stronger the New York Knicks have looked. The assumption is that the spread is designed with a feeling that the OG Anunoby will sit out and so the under is the play in Game 3 with a line that is similar to the one that failed to be overcome in Game 2.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: There will not have been too many surprised faces to see the San Antonio Spurs bounce back from a disappointing Game 1 loss in the manner they did in Game 2 of this Second Round Series.

However, the Minnesota Timberwolves will be pretty confident returning home knowing they earned a split from the opening two games and have taken home court away from the higher Seeded team.

They showed plenty of grit and character to come out of the First Round Series against the Denver Nuggets, despite injuries racking up, and Anthony Edwards will likely be grateful that he did not have to play extended minutes in Game 2. At the moment the Timberwolves are using Edwards from the bench as he continues to manage a knee injury that many felt would keep him out of action for two weeks instead of going through the rigours of Playoff Basketball, but Anthony Edwards continues to show he is a leader for the team.

It was his impact from the bench that helped the Timberwolves win Game 1 and they may be ready to make more use of Anthony Edwards in this one.

The Timberwolves will be aware that they won two of the three regular season meetings with the San Antonio Spurs and that they are unbeaten in seven at home against this rival.

Jaden McDaniels will be needed to steer clear of the foul trouble that limited his time on the court in Game 2, but there is a togetherness about this Minnesota Timberwolves team that continues to see them outperform expectations set for them.

At the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the San Antonio Spurs are favourites in the Series and they have been asked to lay plenty of points in this Game 3 on the road.

There was a nice balance to the way they played in Game 2 on both sides of the court and the Spurs will feel that the momentum is now behind them.

However, this is a Timberwolves team that have turned things around when factors are working against them in the First Round and an experienced group can give the Spurs as good as they get in Game 3.

Road favourites of at least 4.5 points have not had the most productive time covering in the Second Round of the NBA Playoffs in recent years, while those teams who have scored at least 127 points in a single game have covered in only 33% of the time they next go out on court.

Minnesota have won all three home Playoff Games this season and the record against the San Antonio Spurs will give them and the fans genuine belief they can pull the upset.

With key players likely feeling refreshed returning home at 1-1 in the Series, the Timberwolves may have another upset in them.

Saturday 9th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Both of these teams made heavier weather than expected of First Round Series and had to come through a Game 7 at home to finally earn the Seeded position into the Second Round.

Out of the two, the Detroit Pistons came closest to exiting the NBA Playoffs when trailing by over 20 points in Game 6 against the Orlando Magic and already down 3-2 in the Series- in fact they had been 3-1 behind after four games, but the Pistons rallied and eventually came through with three straight wins and that momentum has guided them into a 2-0 lead in this Second Round Series.

Cade Cunningham continues to play at a high level, but it has been important that the Pistons have found a way to get some of the role players performing next to the superstar name on the roster. This has been the key to the Pistons finishing with the top Seed in the Eastern Conference, but Cunningham has made it clear that his team cannot afford to look too far ahead and have to use the First Round Series as a tale of caution about how quickly things can unravel in the post-season.

However, the Detroit Pistons have to be pretty confident with how they have been playing to make it five Playoff victories in a row and they have put the Cleveland Cavaliers in a tough spot.

There is plenty of experience in the Cleveland rotation though and the Cavaliers will also be aware that they have lost all five road games played in the post-season so far... The reason they are still playing competitive basketball is because they won all four home games against the Toronto Raptors and they do have a chance to get back to 2-2 in this Series with home advantage on their side over the next three days.

Beating the Raptors at home and doing the same against the Detroit Pistons is going to be a different test, but Cleveland have to remain confident knowing how they have played here. Donovan Mitchell looks to have come alive again, but the key for the Cavaliers is finding a way to get others out supporting him, namely James Harden who has long be criticised for coming up short in the biggest Playoff moments.

The pressure is going to be building on the Cavaliers knowing how they have performed on the road and even earning one win in this Series looks like it could be tough.

Dropping one of the next two games and having to win twice on the road may be beyond them and that can make it difficult for any team.

The fact here is that Cleveland have not matched up well with the Detroit Pistons this season and have lost four of the last five between the teams since blowing out the Pistons in the first meeting back in October. The Cavaliers lineup feels much different now and they are likely going to be pushed all the way in this Game 3, even though Cleveland should be respected for the comfortable margins of wins they have produced at home in the First Round.

Again, that was against Toronto and not the top Seed in the Eastern Conference and so taking the points with the road team here looks to be the play.

Home favourites of less than 8.5 points have been very good to back in the NBA Playoffs Second Round, which gives pause for thought, but the Cavaliers will need to come out with strong intensity if they are going to blow past the Pistons.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: There are some suggestions that the Los Angeles Lakers will have Luka Doncic back for Game 3 of this Second Round Series, but the team are only talking about being given a fair shake from the officials.

Frustrations boiled over on the court, after the game and then in the press conference with suggestions that the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting away with a lot of fouls on the Defensive side of the court. There has also been a long criticism of some of the 'flopping' that seems to accompany a few of the Thunder players when anyone whistles by them and the Lakers are hoping that things will change.

There will be some pressure on the officials when the Series shifts to the City of Angels for two games- the home fans are not going to want to see LeBron James 'clobbered' and only getting to the foul line five times, while they will also be extremely loud whenever a Thunder play hits the floor.

Perhaps that will create a bias in some of the calls made, but the Lakers know that it is going to be extremely challenging to get back into this Series even if Doncic is able to give them a lift.

He is not expected to be at 100% and the likes of LeBron James and Austin Reaves are trying to contribute as much as possible, but this Oklahoma City team have just found the right moments to put a run together and effectively blitz through the first two games.

They swept the Phoenix Suns in the First Round and that will have given the Thunder confidence, while they would love to earn some rest before the Western Conference Finals by ending this Series as soon as possible. There is a depth in the Thunder rotation, which showed up again in the Game 2 win, and Oklahoma City look like they are going to have a bit too much for the Lakers.

You can almost guarantee the Lakers will come out with huge energy and will be desperate to get back into the Series by taking command of Game 3 as quickly as possible, but youth and energy is on the side of the defending Champions.

Big road favourites have not been very successful in the Second Round of recent NBA Playoffs, but the Thunder have won all six meetings against the Los Angeles Lakers this season and all by at least 9 points.

Twelve months ago, teams were able to give Oklahoma City some real tests, but this Lakers team need the officials to play ball if that is going to happen in this Series.

They have not been completely outplayed, but the Lakers have struggled to slow the momentum when the Oklahoma City Thunder have been able to get on a roll and that could be the case again on Saturday as the top Seed in the Western Conference moves to the brink of reaching the Conference Finals again.

Sunday 10th May

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Pick: The NBA Playoff experiences of the past would have gotten the New York Knicks ready to weather an early storm from a desperate Philadelphia 76ers team.

They were put under pressure early with Joel Embiid back in the starting rotation for the home team, but there were plenty of Knicks fans in the building for Game 3 and they will have kept the motivation very high for the New York players.

After weathering the storm, the New York Knicks began to make use of the match up advantages they have had in the first three games of the Series- OG Anunoby sat out, but that did not stop the Knicks from largely doing what they wanted, while the underrated Defensive unit turned the screw on the 76ers 'Big Three'.

The bonus was winning when the second units entered the court and the New York Knicks have moved into a 3-0 lead and will be convinced they are not going to be the first team in NBA history to lose in the Playoffs from that position.

Completing the Series win on Sunday would be a benefit for the Knicks in being able to give key players plenty of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals are set to begin.

Once again there has to be some expectations that the 76ers are going to throw everything at the Knicks in their bid to avoid the sweep in front of the home fans. Teams that have been behind in the Second Round of the Playoffs when Game 4 comes around have had successes against the spread, but Philadelphia have to find a way to combat what has been relatively comfortable approaches used by the Knicks.

It may be asking too much for a group of players that looked pretty devastated after the Game 3 defeat, while teams that have won that outing have backed it up very well in Game 4 in recent Second Round Series.

This is a close out spot and in recent seasons, teams have been better at doing that on the road with some authority than they have been at home and the New York Knicks may be able to do that on Sunday.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: The slow start in the First Quarter of Game 3 will have bothered the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they gave San Antonio Spurs a real challenge before coming up short.

Home court once again belongs to the San Antonio Spurs, but there is a real pressure on the home team to bounce back and make sure they return to Texas at 2-2 rather than being on the brink of elimination.

So much went right for the Timberwolves in Game 3, but they struggled to create open looks against Victor Wembanyama and that resulted in a poor conversion rate, despite having a lot more efforts from the field compared with the road team.

Anthony Edwards was back in a starting role and he looked about as healthy as could be hoped, but the Coaching staff have to find a way to turn the momentum back towards the Timberwolves.

You have to expect changes to the starting rotation and the Timberwolves must come quicker and with more intensity right from the outset and see if they can put some pressure back on the San Antonio Spurs.

Much like the New York Knicks, the Spurs will be looking to back up a Game 3 win, but this is going to be a tough ask with the Minnesota Timberwolves yet to lose belief in their own ability.

Picking a side looks like it is going to be tough, but there has been enough effort on the Offensive boards to believe there will be second chance opportunities here and that will put the Defensive players under some pressure.

A few more Free Throws for the home team could also help and putting these factors together, this looks like a third game in a row where the total line can be surpassed.

The under has been a big player in the Second Round of recent NBA Playoffs, but those have usually been in cases with a larger total than the one set for Game 4 of this Western Conference Series. Both teams have shown they can get something positive going Offensively and the lack of rest between games at this stage of the season means the Defensive players are being tested and that may give those with an Offensive mindset an opportunity to take over.

Monday 11th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: They were poised to become the third team holding a 3-0 lead in the NBA Playoffs Second Round Series, but a big James Harden bucket helped the Cleveland Cavaliers hold off the Detroit Pistons and bring themselves back into this Eastern Conference Series.

No team in NBA history has recovered from 3-0 behind in a best of seven Playoff Series, but hosting Game 4 with an opportunity to level things up before heading back to Detroit will have everyone feeling better.

Of course there is still some real pressure on the Cleveland Cavaliers knowing a defeat on Monday would mean having to win three games in a row and twice in Detroit to move into the Eastern Conference Finals.

They will be hoping that James Harden can back up the hot shooting of Donovan Mitchell, but the Cavaliers will also appreciate that a lot had to go right for them in Game 3. They had a huge lead at half time, but the Detroit Pistons ground them down and had all of the momentum with time running out in the Fourth Quarter, although ultimately coming up short.

Out of the two teams, there has been a bit more efficiency from the Pistons, while they have the size and intensity around the boards to win those Rebounding numbers and offer the team a chance of earning the road upset. They will regret the Second Quarter when falling into a big hole, but the Pistons have shown enough to believe that small adjustments can be made to turn the tables after a game in which they may feel a big opportunity slipped past them.

Recent Second Round Playoff trends have shown Game 4 to be a time when the Game 3 winner has pressed home the advantage, while those leading in the Series have struggled against the spread. Those are all factors moving against the Detroit Pistons, but the layers have shrunk the line in this one and that is the kind of respect that has been earned by the top Seed in the Conference.

Instead of picking a side, backing this game to hit the under may be the better approach.

Both teams have shown they can pick up the Defensive intensity and games played after a margin of victory less than double digits have a strong lean towards the 'under' play.

Prior to Game 3, the under had come out on top twice in a row and this may end up being another scrap between these rivals, which ends up seeing the Defensive units make enough stops to prevent this total being surpassed.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: The story of this Second Round Series has felt very similar in each of the three games played so far- the Los Angeles Lakers have hung around for a while and caused problems, but the consistency of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the younger legs have seen them put together enough runs to produce comfortable victories.

That was how Game 3 played out and the Lakers are now on the brink of elimination after the excitement of mid-season about what was being put together.

Injuries are always a factor, but losing Luka Doncic is a monster blow for the Lakers and he is almost certainly going to be missing in Game 4. LeBron James and Austin Reaves are doing what they can, but the lack of a third member of the status of Doncic has made it really difficult when the Lakers run into some cold patches, while the turnovers continue to haunt them.

There has been little wrong with the scheming as the Lakers have managed to slow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

However, Ajay Mitchell has stepped up into his current role and Chet Holmgren continues to be a real nuisance, while the depth of this Thunder team is underrated.

Wins by 18, 18 and 23 points means the Oklahoma City Thunder have won all seven Playoff games played in this post-season run and they will be keen to end this Series as soon as Monday.

You have to anticipate one last big gasp from the Lakers in the bid to at least force a Game 5 back on the road, but they put in a big effort on Saturday and were still unable to play clean enough for long enough to steal a game away from the Thunder. Outside of a perfect performance and a distracted Oklahoma City team, it is really difficult to see the Lakers putting enough together to avoid another big defeat.

Road favourites of 4.5 points or larger have not had an easy time in recent Second Round Playoff Series, but the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder have both covered in that spot.

The Thunder hit a total in Game 3 which has usually meant the next game has been a struggle to cover and this is a big line, but all of the momentum is with the defending Champions and they should be able to put the runs together to eventually pull clear of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Favourites and Game 3 winners both have solid covering records against the spread when it comes to Game 4 and it is tough to see how the Series shifts for the Lakers having seen what we have in the opening three games.

MY PICKS: 08/05 Philadelphia 76ers-New York Knicks Under 214 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

09/05 Detroit Pistons + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 New York Knicks - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

11/05 Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons Under 213 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

11/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 11th May)

The Rome Masters continue and there is another busy day of tennis in the Italian Capital.

The two selections from the host of matches to be played can be read below after a solid Saturday to turn the week around and move the profit/loss from the red into the black.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Bianca Andreescu: Both of these players are former Grand Slam Champions, but injuries have really held back Bianca Andreescu.

She enters the tournament in Rome as the World Number 121 having reached a peak of Number 4 in October 2019 and the Canadian is still only 24 years old. Back to back wins to move through to the Third Round will have given Bianca Andreescu a boost in confidence, but this is another significant obstacle for her to overcome.

There will be no doubt about that after Bianca Andreescu was beaten by Elena Rybakina in Madrid and the former also suffered a very early exit at a Challenger event that Andreescu took in between the two Masters events.

The higher Ranked player has not been in great form of late, but Elena Rybakina won the tournament in Rome two years ago and she was a solid winner in the Second Round.

The match up has also suited Elena Rybakina having won all three previous matches against Bianca Andreescu with the first serve being a dominant part of those wins. It was the case last time out when the players met in Madrid and that has allowed Elena Rybakina to have success with her aggressive style of play.

Nothing has been happening easily for Elena Rybakina in recent weeks, but the relative comfort level of this kind of match up should help in her bid to move into the second week of the event.

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Linda Noskova: Two very young players on the Tour meet for the fourth time and you have to give Mirra Andreeva a real edge in this Third Round match.

Her overall form across the clay court season has been much stronger than Linda Noskova's, while the 18 year old Russian has pushed through to the top 10 in the World Rankings.

A real concern for Linda Noskova ahead of this match is the vulnerability of the second serve and that is something that Mirra Andreeva will be looking to exploit. It has been a real problem for Noskova in the previous three matches played against Mirra Andreeva and the World Number 30 is simply not returning well enough to cover for that vulnerability.

She has been able to challenge Mirra Andreeva, and it has to be noted that the World Number 7 has not been at her absolute best over the last month. Mirra Andreeva is still developing into the kind of server she is going to be on the Tour, and that has allowed opponents to put her under some pressure.

Even then, the talent edge is with Andreeva against most opponents and that has allowed her to win the big points and put up strong scores across the board.

This is a big spread all things considered, but Mirra Andreeva is capable of breaking serve enough times to secure the cover. Linda Noskova is talented and has to be motivated in trying to beat the younger player making the big headlines on the Tour, but she may come up short for a third time in a row in this Third Round match.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 5-4, + 0.25 Units (9 Units Staked, + 2.78% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Vasyl Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr (Saturday 11th May)

Two of the pound for pound best in the world were in action last weekend and both Canelo Alvarez and Naoya Inoue impressed in their wins.

The Monster in particular showed something new by getting off the canvas in the First Round and then absolutely crushing the challenge of Luis Nery- it really feels like the only way Inoue will lose is when he moves up to a weight Division too high.

He looks set to defend his Undisputed Super Bantamweight World Titles once more later this year, but the expectation is that Naoya Inoue will then look upwards at the Featherweight Division, which is lacking a dominant Champion. Some have suggested he should be thinking about fighting Gervonta Davis, but that sounds like talk from those who want to see Inoue beaten and Featherweight may be the limit.

Next weekend we will have another entry to challenge for top spot in the pound for pound Rankings when the Undisputed Heavyweight World Title is decided, while Terence Crawford will get a chance to make his own case in early August. The positive for us Boxing fans is that the elite fighters are getting out there and taking on challenges and we are right in the midst of what should be a very good run of fights.

A former pound for pound Number 1 Ranked fighter is going to be the focus of this weekend when Vasyl Lomachenko returns against a former Unified Lightweight World Champion in front of the latter's home fans. We also have a couple of decent cards in the United Kingdom before the focus of the Boxing world will turn to Saudi Arabia and the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk Heavyweight Fight next weekend.

Vasyl Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr

As mentioned about Naoya Inoue, the feeling about Vasyl Lomachenko was that he would be unbeaten until he took on much bigger opponents when his own power might not have stacked up as it had at a natural weight class.

There is no doubting the qualities that Lomachenko still has, even when moving as high as Lightweight, and his defeats have been a touch controversial to both Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney.

Inactivity and age are perhaps just as big an opponent as anyone Vasyl Lomachenko will face in the ring these days and he has not faced anyone since a very tight Decision loss to Haney, a fight that it felt he had done enough to earn the nod.

The Ukrainian certainly felt the same late in the fight as he took a Round or two off, but that cost Lomachenko and was perhaps a sign that Hi-Tech is not at an age when his activity cannot be sustained at the level it was during his peak. He has only Stopped one opponent in five years and fights have been competitive enough for George Kambosos Jr to come into this one with some confidence.

It is a crossroads fight for both- there is a major potential prize on the line for the winner with talk about facing Shakur Stevenson later in the year, but a defeat will make it very difficult to find a good path for either Lomachenko or Kambosos Jr.

George Kambosos Jr won a Split Decision against Teofimo Lopez in the next fight the latter had after beating Lomachenko, but he as convincingly beaten twice by Devin Haney before a controversial win over Maxi Hughes last year. Even after his win over Lopez, many doubted how good Kambosos Jr is and those three performances have done nothing to silence those doubters.

He is solid and willing to leave it all in the ring, but George Kambosos Jr is someone who doesn't have 'special' qualities in anything he does and it does feel like he took advantage of facing Teo Lopez at a good time. All credit has to be given, not taken away, for winning the fight, but Kambosos Jr has struggled since then and it feels like he will need to have Vasyl Lomachenko slipping off a cliff in order to win this one.

The IBF World Title will be on the line for both and the potential for a Unification later in the year provides massive motivation for both and the home crowd can pump George Kambosos Jr forward. That was not enough against Devin Haney, but this will likely be closer knowing that Vasyl Lomachenko can take a bit of time to warm up and is not fighting at the kind of pace he did a few years ago.

I would still expect Vasyl Lomachenko to do enough to take this on the cards- he is not expected to stop the tough Australian on his home soil, but Lomachenko should clearly win Seven Rounds.

Barring Father Time showing his hand in the ring on fight night, Vasyl Lomachenko may just find a Unanimous Decision that will set him up for one last bid to move towards Undisputed, which has been a target for him ever since moving into the 135 pound Division.

Unsurprisingly the undercard of the event in Perth is going to feature a lot Australian fighters.

Imam Khataev was born in Russia, but lives in Sydney and is looking for his seventh professional win as he steps up to take on veteran Ricards Bolotniks, who is well known to British fight fans.

The home fighter is yet to hear the bell for the Fourth Round, but the veteran skills of Bolotniks may force Imam Khataev to show something new. However, the Latvian has been wearing down and the feeling is that Khataev will be able to keep his run of Knock Out wins moving forward, albeit in the second half of this one.

We should also see Joseph Goodall return to winning form having been blown out by Efe Ajagba in the United States in November.

The opponent, Faiga Opelu, has been Stopped three times previously, including in a single Round by Joseph Parker last year and Goodall might just have too much early firepower for him here.

We should have Andrew Moloney in a chief support position on the card and he will be looking to help the family name bounce back after his brother, Jason, was beaten in Japan on the Naoya Inoue-Luis Nery undercard this past Monday.

I really thought Andrew Moloney's career was effectively over after a brutal beatdown and then Knock Out at the hands of Junto Nakatani, but he has a chance to win an Interim Super Flyweight World Title this weekend and bounced back from that loss with a win at the end of 2023.

He is facing a tough veteran, but the feeling is that Moloney may be able to do enough to win this one on the cards and open the doors for at least one or two more fights at the elite level.

The two United Kingdom cards are going to be a chance for fighters to continue pushing up the levels, although the main focus may be a massive crossroads fight in the Middleweight Division.

It is a domestic fight between Denzel Bentley and Danny Dingum, two Boxers who came up short against Janibek Alimkhanuly at World level.

Out of the two, Bentley certainly showed a lot more than Dingum and the former has been in with the better class of opponent in their careers.

Disappointingly, Denzel Bentley was well beaten by Nathan Heaney in his last bout and lacked any kind of intensity on the night. Ultimately it has come out that Bentley was dealing with serious issues outside of the ring, which had sapped focus, and he has been speaking about being much more ready to compete now.

Danny Dingum has won a couple of low-key fights since being blown away by Alimkhanuly, but he has been relatively inactive with his last fight being in April 2023.

There has been a suggestion that Dingum has thought about calling time on his career and Denzel Bentley hits hard enough to push him through that door. The former British Middleweight Champion can just remind people of the talent he has and Denzel Bentley may get on top very early in this one at the famous York Hall.

MY PICKS: Vasyl Lomachenko to Win by Unanimous Decision @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Imam Khataev to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Joseph Goodall to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Denzel Bentley to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 19-28, + 14.87 Units (66 Units Staked, + 22.53% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 11th)

The Rome Masters hits the middle of the week and that means a hugely busy day at the tournament.

A bit of poor luck saw three of the four Tennis Picks win their first set on Tuesday, but only one of those players returned a winner.

Wednesday is going to be an important day and one that will determine whether I will be continuing with the Tennis Picks this week, or begin preparing for the French Open which begins later this month. I am looking for much better for the Tennis Picks than the last week has provided, but I will not be throwing good money after bad and that means I want to see better results.

MY PICKS: Jil Teichmann - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Martic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Update: 3-5, - 4.58 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.63% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 11th)

The Rome Masters is beginning to move into the meat of the draw for the ATP Tournament being played here as some of the top Seeds return to the court on Tuesday.

There are some big matches in the WTA Tournament too on another busy day in the Italian capital as we begin the fast approach towards the French Open beginning at the end of the month.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: Any time a player has won a couple of matches to earn their way through the Qualifiers into the main draw they should be respected as someone who has their eye in on the court and happy enough with the conditions. That is what Tommy Paul will be holding onto as he looks to make his way past a higher Ranked opponent in the First Round and the American has proved he is capable enough of performing on the clay courts.

Not many from the United States have really enjoyed the surface having grown up on the hard courts, but Tommy Paul has decent enough numbers. He only just missed out on direct entry into the Rome Masters main draw and Tommy Paul is close to breaking into the top 50 in the World Rankings for the first time.

Last week in Madrid Tommy Paul also took a set off of Andrey Rublev which will give him some confidence and he has solid, if unspectacular, numbers on the clay courts. The American doesn't have the best serve, but he makes up for that with decent returning and Paul will have learnt plenty from losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in the Monte Carlo Masters main draw.

On that day it was the edge that Roberto Bautista Agut had on the returning side of the game that helped him past Paul and I do think the return aspect is going to be very important to this match too.

Despite being very familiar with clay courts, Bautista Agut has produced his best tennis on the faster surfaces, although that is not to say he isn't a decent enough clay courter. The returning numbers are a little down from where we expect Roberto Bautista Agut to operate at, but those have been largely dented by John Isner in his win over the Spaniard in Madrid last week.

Roberto Bautista Agut has been slightly better at looking after his serve at key moments compared with Tommy Paul, but the real edge is the fact that the former has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay courts compared with Paul's 25% number. When only considering the matches against players Ranked within the top 100, Tommy Paul's number dips further to 21% and I do think the surface in Rome should be one on which the superior return player is able to exert the control on the outcome.

It could be a touch closer than the match in Monte Carlo if Tommy Paul can serve more first serves than he managed that day, but even then you would have to figure that Roberto Bautista Agut can eventually break down this opponent.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There is little doubt that the focus for Novak Djokovic is finding his best form whenever a Grand Slam comes around and he made a decision to withdraw from the Madrid Masters last week. The World Number 1 and top Seed is back for the Rome Masters though and he is looking for a strong tournament after a couple of relatively poor performances by Novak Djokovic's own high standards.

He was surprisingly beaten very early on at the Monte Carlo Masters and was then ousted in the Belgrade Semi Final which means Novak Djokovic is just 3-2 on the clay courts in 2021. Novak Djokovic did win the Rome Masters last year and reached the Final of the French Open so there won't be too much panic, but you would feel this is an important tournament for him.

Novak Djokovic's three wins have come in largely one-sided fashion, but the two defeats will be a concern and there is definite room for improvement.

The opening match in Rome will come in the Second Round against Taylor Fritz who beat Daniel Evans in the First Round (Daniel Evans beat Novak Djokovic at the Monte Carlo Masters). That is a solid looking win for the American who has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and also ended a three match losing run for Taylor Fritz ahead of this huge challenge for him.

He will be confident having pushed Novak Djokovic all the way to a fifth set decider when these two players met at the Australian Open earlier this year, but that was on a surface that Taylor Fritz has enjoyed much more than the red dirt. The problem for Fritz is that he does not get through as many service games with the kind of ease he can on a hard court, and that puts a lot of pressure on a return game which is average at best.

There have been one or two signs of improvement from Taylor Fritz on the clay courts this season, but the numbers return to the kind of levels we expect of him when Fritz has faced top 100 or top 50 Ranked opponents.

It could take Novak Djokovic a bit of time to really find his best, but he has twice played Taylor Fritz on the clay courts and broken down the younger players tennis. Those clay court matches were played in 2019 and I am not sure there has been a significant enough improvement from Fritz in that time to avoid seeing Novak Djokovic pull away over the course of the match.

Novak Djokovic will want to improve his serve if he is going to challenge for the big clay titles left in 2021, but he has won 48% of return points played in the five matches he has competed in and broken in 44% of return games played. I expect that side of his tennis to put the pressure on Taylor Fritz and eventually break him down in this Second Round match.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There was a medical timeout needed in the first set in his eventual three set win over Laslo Djere, but Pablo Carreno Busta didn't seem to be hindered and finished the match much stronger than he begun. He has had the Monday off to prepare himself for the Second Round at the Rome Masters which can only benefit Pablo Carreno Busta and I expect him to be ready for this match.

The Spaniard will take on a veteran in Kei Nishikori who was a comfortable winner over home favourite Fabio Fognini and the former top ten player was not overly taxed in that match. Injuries have really hurt Kei Nishikori over the last couple of seasons and he is still working his way back to his very best, but Nishikori is someone that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts where he can get his groundstrokes going.

It has been something of a mixed season for Nishikori on the clay courts despite the 4-2 record and his numbers have backed that up- the serve has been erratic and he is holding in just 72% of service games played on the surface, but Kei Nishikori has been returning effectively enough to break in 30% of return games.

He is going to need to be stronger and more resilient behind serve if he is going to get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has not always found his best tennis on the clay courts, which is a surprise, but he is holding 81% of service games played on the surface in 2021 and that is a significant edge over Kei Nishikori and especially when noting the break percentages are identical.

Losses to Casper Ruud, Rafael Nadal and Federico Delbonis on the red dirt is nothing to be ashamed about for Pablo Carreno Busta and I think he has all of the tennis needed to get the better of Kei Nishikori as he did at the Australian Open in February. Both players are strong returners, but it is the superior serving and backing up that shot that Pablo Carreno Busta has been able to put together compared with Kei Nishikori that could prove to be the difference between the two players on the day.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2019- Jarrett Hurd vs Julian Williams (May 11th)

Last weekend did not let us down in terms of the quality of the fight between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs and the only regret the latter may have is the very slow start he made in what ultimately was a very close fight.

It might not have had the fireworks that can get some fans off their seat, but the chess match being played by two fighters with plenty of boxing skills can't be ignored. I felt the slow start cost Jacobs with my personal card being 116-112 in favour of Canelo who has now Unified the Middleweight Division with just one more belt to go to become Undisputed.

I am not sure that is the priority for the match makers just yet as the likelihood of seeing the third fight between Gennady Golovkin and Alvarez in September will surely increase if Triple G is able to see off Steve Rolls in early June. I also think there are bigger challenges for Canelo in the Divisions above Middleweight which may appeal, while there was also talk of luring Errol Spence Jr up the Divisions which is perhaps leaving Demetrius Andrade out of the mix for now.

Andrade is back in action in June too and we may yet see the fight with Billy Joe Saunders that should have taken place several months ago. Other options are lacking in truth especially if Canelo goes in another direction and if Danny Jacobs decides he is better of trying his fortunes at Super Middleweight after struggling to boil down to 160 this past weekend.


Last weekend we also see a more impressive performance from Jerwin Ancajas, while Artur Beterbiev looked very strong again. Both will likely be heading to Unification bouts in the near future and much bigger fights than the ones they had to get through.


This week we have two decent looking rematches from fights where the underdog upset the favourite the first time around and the odds have flipped which is not a major surprise.

The most eye-catching fight may be the Light-Middleweight bout between Jarrett Hurd and Julian Williams even if that is not the Unification that most fans would have wanted to see. The upset loss Jermell Charlo suffered put pay to that hope for Hurd, although we could be back on track regardless of who wins the rematch between Charlo and Tony Harrison which is also scheduled for a busy June.


You can read my thoughts on the big three fights of this weekend below and I have updated the season numbers. Last weekend was a positive one for the Boxing Picks, but I need to keep improving to get the year turned back around after a really poor startt.

Emanuel Navarrete vs Isaac Dogboe

The image I am using underlines the size difference between these two Boxers as Isaac Dogboe asked for an immediate rematch against Emanuel Navarrete who took his unbeaten record and Super Bantamweight World Title when these two met last December.

At the time Dogboe went into the fight as a huge favourite to win, but he was not able to get close to the Mexican who controlled things and could have forced a stoppage if he had not hurt his hand through the second half of the fight.

Some might have considered Dogboe was best to rebuild before trying to take on Navarrete again, but he wanted an immediate rematch and has been granted his wish. This time Dogboe will be entering the ring as the slight underdog and I think he is going to have to have made some major adjustments if he is going to turn around the result.

There have been suggestions the training camp has been much better than the first time around, but I have a feeling this is just a bad match up for Dogboe. I thought he was going to have enough to win the first fight, but within a Round or two it was very clear that the size of Navarrete was going to be an issue, especially as he had enough pop to at least buzz his unbeaten opponent.

The hand injury I have mentioned was perhaps a factor in preventing Navarrete from really stepping up the pressure in the second half of the fight and I am going to assume those issues are behind him. It is asking a lot of Dogboe to do much better than the first fight when you think of the match up and I think the only difference this time is that Navarrete may be able to exert enough punishment to force the stoppage.

Both Boxers have spoken about the Knock Out, but I think it will be more repeat than revenge and I am going to have a small interest in Emanuel Navarrete earning a second half stoppage.

Miguel Berchelt vs Francisco Vargas

Back in January 2017 Miguel Berchelt and Francisco Vargas were involved in a brilliant fight which ended in the Eleventh Round as the younger man was able to come through a war.

At the time Vargas was the favourite having been unbeaten and coming in as the Champion, but Berchelt won the fight and now is a strong favourite to do the same in this rematch.

You can't really argue with that as the younger man and Vargas only having a couple of bouts since the first defeat of his career. At 34 years old the feeling is that Vargas has seen his best days and Berchelt has promised to end this fight sooner than the first one.

Miguel Berchelt has been more active and defended the WBC Super Featherweight Title on four occasions since ripping the belt away from Vargas. The last three have all been stopped and I do think Berchelt is still entering his prime while Vargas is perhaps on the slide in the wrong direction.

I do think it is going to be a fun fight to watch with the way Vargas and Berchelt should mesh with one another and I tend to agree with the Champion that this is not going to go as long as the first one. The year off from the ring is not going to be that helpful to Vargas and I think this ends somewhere between the Sixth and Ninth Round.

My feeling is that Vargas will be competitive for a while, but Berchelt will begin to exert his will on the fight. We should hear the bell for the second half of the this Title fight and I think that is when Berchelt will have really taken over the bout and begin to pepper the former Champion into submission, perhaps one or two Rounds earlier than their first fight ended.

Jarrett Hurd vs Julian Williams

Two of the four Light Middleweight World Titles are in the position of Jarrett Hurd who is appearing in 2019 for the first time. He needed a few months to recuperate an injury following the win over Erislandy Lara to Unify the IBF and WBA Titles and Hurd was hoping he would be going into 2019 ready to add Jermell Charlo's strap this collection.

He has last appeared in Los Angeles on the Deontay Wilder-Tyson Fury undercard, but later that month Charlo was beaten by Tony Harrison in an upset and so any Unification had to be put aside for now. Instead Jarrett Hurd gets a homecoming bout, although I don't think anyone will be underestimating Julian Williams.

The Philadelphian is trained by one of the smartest minds in Boxing in Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards and Williams is a pretty good Boxer, which means I do think he will win his Rounds as he did against Jermall Charlo before being stopped in the Fifth Round.

I really like Jarrett Hurd, but I also accept he is someone who needs to warm up to his task whenever he fights. That has seen him come on strong and break the hearts of opponents in the second half and I do think there is going to be a similar feel in this one. I would not be surprised if Williams is ahead on the cards at the halfway mark, but Hurd is going to continue backing him up and that wears opponents down especially when the Champion starts landing plenty of heavy artillery back.

Is Williams a good enough Boxer to stick and move and look to win this one by a Decision? Yeah I do think that is possible, but keeping Hurd off for the full Twelve Rounds is a big ask. Around the halfway mark I do think Hurd will begin to have a lot more success and he is going to grind down yet another opponent having stopped Tony Harrison and Austin Trout in the Championship Rounds and also knocked Lara down in the Twelfth Round which proved to be a pivotal moment of the entire bout.

Some will be looking to compare how Hurd does to the Charlo win over Williams, but he is not someone who relies on the one punch power that helped Jermall win that fight. Instead Hurd looks to bully and wear down opponents and I think this one might be decided at around the Eighth or Ninth Round as the Champion once again powers through the gears to put a hurting on his opponent.

MY PICKS: Emanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Miguel Berchelt to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Jarrett Hurd to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2019 Update: 7-18, - 7.20 Units (39 Units Staked, - 18.46% Yield)

Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 11th)

Things could have looked a lot better with a little more luck on my side at the Madrid Masters, but I've also been guilty of some poor Tennis Picks from the tournament.

The tournament enters the final three days of action with the majority of the Tour already focused on the next big event in Rome which begins this weekend. With both events a big chance to lay down a marker for the French Open, we are beginning to separate those who could be contenders from those who are pretenders.

It has been a little difficult to find the time to write the full analysis as I would like, but I have done the required research for the Tennis Picks on Friday which can be found below.

MY PICKS: Kiki Bertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 7-8, - 3.92 Units (30 Units Staked, - 13.07% Yield)

Rome Tennis Picks 2015 (May 11th)

The tournament in Madrid turned out to be a very productive one for the picks, but it still ended with a big surprise as Rafael Nadal was crushed by Andy Murray. That has put the hammer down on the Spaniard's World Ranking, while a confidence boosting title win ahead of the French Open was not secured as most would have expected in the Final.

It is hard to know where that leaves Nadal just two weeks away from the start of the second Grand Slam of the season, but I still think he is the most likely winner in Paris outside of Novak Djokovic. Andy Murray's win was very impressive, but I am not convinced he can get the job done in a best of five set match on the clay courts of Paris against a few other players on the Tour, although he has to be feeling very good about his chances at Wimbledon and the US Open, the two Slams he has won previously.


Now the Tour moves onto Rome where Novak Djokovic makes his return having decided to sit out Madrid as he focuses on finally adding the French Open crown to his other Grand Slam wins to complete the career Grand Slam. On current form, it would take something memorable to stop Djokovic taking the title in Paris as far as I am concerned, while the women's event is likely to be a lot more open.


The First Round began on Sunday with a few matches in both the Masters and Premier Event taking place in Rome, but I wasn't convinced I knew the way any of those would go. I have a better feeling about the following matches as the last big event before the French Open takes place in the Eternal City.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: I don't think it is being harsh in saying that John Isner is only ever going to go as far as his serve will take him, but that he is always likely to fall short of winning big tournaments because of a limited return game and ineffectiveness from the baseline more often than not.

Fair enough, that is a little harsh, but I am impressed that Isner might have figured that out himself as he looks much more willing to come forward and get to the net. The American is such an imposing figure at the net that he is tough to pass and it has given him another crease to his game which is important no matter what stage you are in your career.

In a match like this one against Joao Sousa, Isner's serve can create enough scoreboard pressure to help ease his way through to the Second Round and I expect that to happen. Sousa can play some good stuff, but his serve is limited and it will just take a couple of really solid returns from Isner to give him a chance to break through and I like his chances to do that.

Sousa might feel he can win the majority of the longer rallies, but dealing with the pressure to do that behind a weak first serve might end up with a 63, 76 win for Isner.


Simone Bolelli - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: It is no surprise that young players can be inconsistent early in their career and that is what has been affecting Dominic Thiem through the 2015 campaign. The Austrian may be very disappointed with his lack of success during this portion of the season and he now has to deal with the home crowd who should be firmly behind Simone Bolelli who has been having a decent year on the Singles Tour.

The best work done by Bolelli has come in the Doubles alongside Fabio Fognini, but I think he is a solid clay court player that will give Thiem plenty to think about. The Italian should be inspired about playing in front of the home crowd, but he has struggled in Rome in the past which would be a concern, although I still believe Bolelli has a little too much for Thiem at this moment in time.

Bolelli has just earned the better results of the two players and I think that will give him the belief in a match that might easily need a deciding set to separate the two players. While Bolelli can see his head drop when he falls behind, Thiem may also struggle to recover if he makes a slow start and I will back the home player to move through to the Second Round despite the expectation that Thiem is the more talented player.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: I honestly don't think I will ever feel great about backing Fabio Fognini who can be spectacular one moment and then absolutely atrocious the next.

Even playing in the Italian capital might not be enough to get the best out of Fognini who has a poor record in Rome in the past, but the match up with Steve Johnson should be one that favours the clay courter in this First Round.

Johnson, like many other American players before him, does not feel comfortable on the clay courts in Europe as it doesn't go with the quick fire style of tennis he wants to play. The serve doesn't set up too many easy chances to put away a winner with the first strike and Johnson is going to have to work for what he gets assuming Fognini is taking the tournament seriously and not just happy to be back home.

As I have said, you don't always know what you're getting with Fognini, but I expect him to battle to a 64, 63 win in this one.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Madison Brengle: I am not sure if Madison Keys will ever really develop into a serial winner on the clay courts, although not many would have thought Maria Sharapova would become as effective as she has on this surface.

As much potential as I think Keys has, her body can let her down physically and the pounding on the clay courts might not suit her, while her movement can be a little cumbersome at times too. If Keys gets time to strike the ball, not many hit the ball harder and cleaner than her, but you have to have patience on clay too and I am not sure she has that in her game.

However, I expect her to be too strong for her compatriot Madison Brengle who was beaten comfortably by Keys at the Australian Open, although who has shown some real form on the clay courts over the last month.

I still think Keys' power in this one will give her the edge and she has had some decent results on this surface so I don't disregard her future success on the clay. If Keys serves well, she should work her way through to a 64, 64 win thanks to the additional advantage she has in the power department.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: It doesn't take much to forgive Angelique Kerber's early loss in Madrid last week when you consider she had been on an 11 match winning run which had also seen her win titles in Charleston and Stuttgart. After a really miserable start to 2015, this return to form will be very welcome for Kerber fans and I believe she can get a new run going by beating Alize Cornet in this tough First Round match.

These Premier Event First Round matches are generally very tough so this one is no different, but I think Kerber has been playing well enough to beat Cornet, even if the Frenchwoman is a strong competitor on most surfaces.

Cornet can be a little inconsistent, while she isn't up to the level of some of the players that Kerber has beaten over the last month which includes Caroline Wozniacki, Ekaterina Makarova, Maria Sharapova and Andrea Petkovic and there have been some stunning performances in those wins.

I have seen times when Kerber can make too many unforced errors to allow her opponent to take sets and sometimes matches that they shouldn't, which would be a concern with a spread like this. However, I like how Kerber has been performing and look for her to tough out a 75, 63 win.


Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Heather Watson: I don't think either Roberta Vinci or Sara Errani are the players they were any more and so Heather Watson has a real chance to surprise the former. However, I don't know how comfortable Watson is on the clay courts and this is still the strongest surface for Vinci who will also receive the support of the home crowd.

The sliced backhand can be a shot that troubles opponents, but Vinci's problems come if players have gotten used to seeing that and can really expose her game. If under pressure, the idea is to get the ball back to that wing because Vinci will rarely hit an outright winner and someone like Watson is capable of getting a lot of balls back into play from defensive positions.

Watson will know what to expect having beaten Vinci in straight sets earlier this season, but her confidence might not be in a great place with three straight losses on the clay courts. The British Number 1 has also failed to make a real impact on this surface at this level and I am not sure she will cope with having to try and be the aggressor on the court.

I am expecting some long rallies, but ultimately I think Vinci uses all of her experience on clay to oust Watson and allow the latter to begin preparation for Roland Garros.

MY PICKS: John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Final: 9-1, + 14.36 Units (20 Units Staked, + 71.8% Yield)

Season 2015: + 46.29 Units (607 Units Staked, + 7.63% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units