Boxing Picks 2024- Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery (Monday 6th May)

The Saturday night Boxing from the United States will likely have been completed by the time you get to read this thread for the big bout taking place in Tokyo on Monday, but I will have a few thoughts about the outcomes of both of the fights involving some of the biggest names in the sport in the next thread.

That is likely to be a thread that covers the return of Vasyl Lomachenko as he takes on former Undisputed World Champion George Kambosos Jr in Australia next weekend as the big fight nights continue.

And we are now just a couple of weeks out from the Undisputed Heavyweight Champion being crowned, the first of two huge cards to come from Saudi Arabia when the entire Division will be shaken up ahead of a rumoured huge Wembley card expected to be headlined by Anthony Joshua.

It has been mentioned before, but the next several weeks are going to be massively exciting for Boxing fans with some top World level fights, as well as some quality domestic fights that may be setting up the stars of the future.

Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery

The Monster has heard one or two criticisms about him deciding to defend his World Titles in Japan rather than in the United States, but Naoya Inoue has made the point that he is not exactly performing in front of empty Arenas. Instead he is a major star in his home country and another major event will be taking place in Tokyo when Inoue defends his Undisputed Champion status in the Bantamweight Division.

At this point you have to wonder if Inoue will only be beaten when he moves to a weight class too far, much as Vasyl Lomachenko has done.

The Featherweight Champions will not hold a lot of fear for Naoya Inoue and all that he has achieved, but first a bit of almost personal business has to be dealt with.

This angle has been refuted by Naoya Inoue, but Luis Nery is Public Enemy Number One in Boxing circles in Japan.

The Mexican had two crushing wins over Shinsuke Yamanaka in the space of seven months, but Luis Nery failed a drugs test after the first win and was significantly overweight for the second. Neither of these situations went down very well with those in Japan and he was actually not allowed to fight here before this bout was signed off.

With that in mind, the feeling is that the authorities will have signed off for this fight to take place in Japan with a real belief that Naoya Inoue can punish Luis Nery for his previous mistakes.

Unsurprisingly Naoya Inoue has denied this being the case, but The Monster is someone who is going to come forward and unleash some massive shots and it will be interesting to see how Luis Nery stands up to the punishment. The former Super Bantamweight World Champion is looking to regain his World Titles having been beaten by Brandon Figueroa to lose his Belts.

Luis Nery has put four solid wins together since that loss, and the power he brings into the ring means we could see something of a shoot out between the two fighters.

The feeling is that Naoya Inoue can get the better of the exchanges and he is likely going to punish Luis Nery where he can.

The former Champion is not someone expected to take a backward step, but that may suit Naoya Inoue all the more and the current Undisputed World Champion can win in impressive style as he breaks down and concludes this one somewhere in the middle Rounds.

MY PICKS: Naoya Inoue to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 18-28, + 13.12 Units (65 Units Staked, + 20.18% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder (May 6th)

Last weekend was supposedly set aside for the Heavyweight Undisputed fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk, but that bout is now set for the second half of the 2023 year.

It meant it was something of a quieter weekend after the two very good fights/events headlined by Joe Cordina and Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia a couple of weeks ago.

Joe Cordina has reclaimed his World Title in a very good fight and I am only a little disappointed that we are not going to get an immediate rematch in what was a competitive win over Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov. The reason I am not so upset is because Cordina is likely going to be moving into some very big fights in his Division as Unifications look to be in his future, while he could move up to 135 pounds over the next eighteen months where some more big fights could be waiting.

Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia is the most high-profile Boxing event of 2023 year so far and it did not disappoint in the main.

However, I think most Boxing fans will feel justified in picking Davis to win the bout having been comfortable from the moment he earned the Knock Down in the Second Round. Both fighters did their job in bringing in a very strong PPV number, but it has left Ryan Garcia in a tough spot as he looks for another new trainer and has to likely rebuild the reputation, even if he is going to be operating at 140 pounds in the foreseeable future.

Over the last twelve months, the World Titles have fractured in the Light-Welterweight Division after Josh Taylor had previously held all four Belts at the same time. He is still the WBC Champion and will be defending that Title in June, but Garcia will have options as a fairly highly Ranked contender in the WBA, an organisation whose Light-Welterweight Champion Alberto Puello has recently been found with a failed drug test.

The Interim World Champion is not going to be one of the very top names and I think that would be a good route for Ryan Garcia to go as he rebuilds confidence under a new trainer and can then lead to some big Unifications and a potential rematch with Gervonta Davis down the road.

The 'new face of Boxing' Tank Davis looks to have a lot more easy paths to tread, but we have yet to see him really go after Devin Haney, Shakur Stevenson or Vasyl Lomachenko. The head of the Lightweight Division will be decided later in May when Haney and Lomachenko meet, but Gervonta Davis will know this is a loaded Division and he will have a chance to really strengthen his resume in the months ahead.

Hopefully the WBA Regular Champion will be forced to fight for the main World Title sooner than later and we could have some monster nights involving Davis, who has also fought at 140 and who may be thinking about a challenging move to the Welterweight Division once Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr get their acts together.

The current 'face of Boxing' will be back in the ring on Saturday as Canelo Alvarez returns to Mexico for the first time in over a decade.

Joshua Buatsi headlines a Boxxer card in the United Kingdom on the same evening at the start of a good looking month.

Both of the big names headlining are hoping that this weekend is the one that will create the path to the huge nights they are looking for, but overlooking the opponent in the opposite corner would be a mistake.

Two weeks ago, a 4-3 record returned a solid profit for the Boxing Picks, although I am still trying to turn this season back around to produce a positive return to back up the decent returns in 2022.

Moving back into the black before the halfway mark of the calendar year is the aim, but it does take patience too.

I don't need to get it all back this weekend, but another winning weekend will be well received of course.

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder

Eight months have passed since Canelo Alvarez beat rival Gennady Golovkin again to retain his status as Undisputed Super Middleweight Champion and he will be returning to fight in Mexico for the first time since November 2011 when crushing Kermit Cintron in Five Rounds.

Some were hoping that May would be the time when Canelo Alvarez would look to rematch Dmitry Bivol having lost an Unanimous Decision to the Light Heavyweight Champion in May 2022. Instead that fight looks likely to take place at the end of the summer, which means Alvarez decided to get one of his Mandatory challengers out of the way.

To dismiss John Ryder would be a mistake and The Gorilla deserves this shot with some believing he should have been the one to welcome Canelo Alvarez into the Super Middleweight Division instead of Callum Smith having lost a very controversial Decision to his fellow Brit.

Canelo Alvarez ended up with a wide Decision win over Callum Smith to take the second of the 168 trinkets he now carries.

These two share some common opponents and John Ryder has momentum with a four fight unbeaten run behind him since the defeat to Smith in 2019. The only negative has to be that he has not been as active as he perhaps should have been, but wins over Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker in 2022 will have given the Londoner a lot of confidence.

This is another step up, even if some believe Canelo Alvarez is now on the slide, and I do think the Undisputed Champion is still very comfortable dealing with an opponent like John Ryder.

The latter will want to make things rough and get inside, while his being a Southpaw might be a factor that is overplayed.

John Ryder is tough, but he won't be hard for Canelo Alvarez to find and I do think the Champion is going to want to put on a show for the home fans once he gets through a couple of Rounds to just get his rhythm going.

The likes of Billy Joe Saunders, Liam Smith and Callum Smith have lasted a number of Rounds with Canelo Alvarez, even though two of those were eventually Stopped, and I do think that is more likely the outcome for John Ryder than the blowout loss suffered by Rocky Fielding at the hands of Canelo.

Early Stoppages have been harder for Canelo Alvarez as he has moved up in weight and I do think John Ryder is tough enough to get past the halfway mark in this one. He has only been Stopped once before, but Alvarez is a sharpshooter who will not find it too difficult to find John Ryder in front of him and I do think Ryder will begin to feel the force of the shots by the Fourth/Fifth Round.

A couple of rough moments may be needed for this selection to succeed, but I will look for Ryder to tough out those occasions before eventually being overwhelmed.

Unsurprisingly there is a decent undercard also put together for this big event in Mexico.

Gabriel Valenzuela will be given plenty of support as he takes on Steve Sparks and this has all of the makings of a fan friendly fight.

I think both will feel they have the power to wear down and stop their opponent and I do think the fighters will decide the fight rather than the judges score cards. It would only be a surprise if any Stoppage comes early and I think this fight is likely to come to a conclusion in the second half of the bout.

The fighter I am looking forward to seeing back in the ring is Oleksandr Gvozdyk, the former WBC Light Heavyweight Champion. The Nail was finally hammered down by Artur Beterbiev in their Unification in October 2019 which ended his unbeaten professional record, and Oleksandr Gvozdyk spent over three years out of the ring before returning with a Six Round win in February.

He was genuinely winning the fight with Beterbiev before being Stopped in the Tenth Round, and I am hoping we are going to see the Ukrainian return to the top of the Division to force some big Championship bouts in the months ahead.

We will know plenty about Gvozdyk after this fight with Ricards Bolotniks who is a solid pro that has won European Titles in this Division and managed to go Eleven Rounds with Joshua Buatsi before being Stopped last year.

Oleksandr Gvozdyk at his best would have had too much for Ricards Bolotniks and I do think he can show that he has returned with big ambitions in mind by ending this one within the scheduled Ten Rounds.

Julio Cesar Martinez is defending his Flyweight World Title and he is looking for a big performance after some underwhelming outings. Going up in weight to drop a Decision to Roman Gonzalez will have dented some of the confidence, but the Martinez narrow win over Samuel Carmona when returning to his own Division was perhaps a touch more concering.

He has been given an opportunity to impress on this card as he faces Ronal Batista before a potential Unification with Sunny Edwards later in the year.

The home fighter tends to be someone who will wear down opponents rather than blitz through them very early and I think that will lead to a mid-Round finish in this one as Martinez looks to impress his home fans.

Joshua Buatsi vs Pawel Stepien

After a year out of the ring and a change in promoter, Joshua Buatsi is making his debut for Boxxer and looking to get into a position to earn a World Title bid sooner rather than later.

Eddie Hearn was critical of the departing Buatsi for failing to take him up on an offer to challenge Dmitry Bivol for the Light Heavyweight World Title, but Joshua Buatsi has moved on and wants to face the winner of the upcoming Artur Beterbiev-Callum Smith WBC World Title fight.

Those plans will be in tatters if Joshua Buatsi is not able to beat Pawel Stepien with both fighters putting unbeaten records on the line.

However, unlike Buatsi, Pawel Stepien has not really fought at a great level and his first fight outside of his home nation will be a challenge.

Pawel Stepien was set to face Callum Smith before an injury forced the withdrawal of the latter and I think he was being brought over to make Smith look good.

I think similar plans are in place here and Joshua Buatsi will also know he is going to need to impress to get people to sit up and take notice of him again. Anthony Yarde's performance in coming up short against Artur Beterbiev in January has raised his stock, while Joshua Buatsi has been far too inactive, and the latter will have to remind the public of his talent.

A year out of the ring may mean Joshua Buatsi may need a couple of Rounds to just shake off the ring rust, but I expect he will then be able to get to work.

I expect Pawel Stepien to have some resistance, but Buatsi can wear him down and I am looking for him to earn the Stoppage in the mid-Rounds.

Ben Whittaker has had a slow start to his professional career after picking up an injury and will return for the first time since August 2022.

He says he is feeling a lot stronger and I do think he will have too much for Jordan Grant who has been beaten by Tommy Fury and Stopped by John Docherty. We have already seen Whittaker need Six Rounds to win a fight, but I think this is going to be the start of a busy year for the big signing made by Boxxer and they will be looking for him to close the show in the first half of this scheduled Six Rounder.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Gabriel Valenzuela-Steve Sparks Either Fighter to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Oleksandr Gvozdyk to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Julio Cesar Martinez to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.50 Coral (2 Units)

Joshua Buatsi to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ben Whittaker to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 20-29, - 2.02 Units (93 Units Staked, - 2.17% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 6th)

I've had a couple of long days and the late markets being put together for the Thursday's Tennis at the Madrid Masters means I will only be playing my selections from the day here without writing out an analysis of those selections.

The last two days have been positives one for the Tennis Picks and Wednesday would have been a really strong day if Elise Mertens was able to play out the final two games as it looked like she was heading to an inevitable defeat to Aryna Sabalenka. However, I am just glad to put some wins together after a tough last month and hopefully the momentum can continue when the ATP Third Round matches and WTA Semi Finals are played on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 16-12, + 5.18 Units (56 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 6th)

The last Tennis Picks I made came from the week where the ATP Barcelona tournament was made and it was a difficult week on what is usually my favourite surface to watch tennis and make my selections.

Last week the weather played havoc in the events scheduled so I decided to wait until the Madrid Masters began before I would get back on the horse and look to rebound from the poor week. The next two weeks are very important to the top names to make a statement ahead of the start of the French Open later this month.

All of the top names are here in the first of two tournaments played on the clay where the ATP and WTA events are going on alongside each other. The same will happen in Rome before the Tours go their separate ways in the final week before the start of the French Open which is now less than three weeks from getting underway.


You can see my first selections from the Madrid tournament below. From the Tuesday thread through the rest of the week I should have analysis of a few of the selections being made, but for Monday it is simply going to be a list of my picks from the day's play.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 49.30 Units (607 Units Staked, + 8.12% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (May 5-8)

I will be back in London in the next couple of days which means a return for the 'Tennis Picks' from the Madrid and Rome Masters leading up to the French Open, as well as fuller 'NBA Picks' as the Play Offs continue.

This thread will have the full Premier League Picks from the next three days as we reach the business end of the season.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It has been a little over twelve months since the 'Battle of the Bridge' when Tottenham Hotspur lost the Premier League title race at Chelsea. They will know there is no love lost between them and West Ham United either and The Hammers would love to dent their title hopes this time around, although I am not sure the East London club have the quality nor the confidence to do that.

At this stage of the season fatigue is a big issue, but the oddsmakers won't worry about that and will make sure teams who are in 'must win' situations are perhaps not priced up with any value. Tottenham Hotspur look remarkably short to win here with that in mind and I wouldn't want to back them to win by a wide margin here for sure.

West Ham United have not been in their best form, but they have had back to back clean sheets and are unbeaten in 4 League games. The lack of goals has to be a problem for Slaven Bilic and Andy Carroll is likely to miss another game which is only going to add to those issues.

Those issues in the final third could be a problem against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have had 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away games in all competitions. A solid defensive shape is the foundation on which Tottenham Hotspur will look to build their success here, especially as they do believe they have the quality going forward to create chances and score goals.

This fixture feels like it could have a similar feel as to when Tottenham Hotspur won at Crystal Palace recently. I don't think West Ham United will allow things to be 'easy' for their visitors, but Tottenham Hotspur might have the added quality to break through in what should be a tight match all around.

The last few meetings at Upton Park between these teams tended to be tight affairs too and I think that might be case at the London Stadium on Friday. Ultimately I do think Tottenham Hotspur will find a way to breach the West Ham United defences and I am going to back them to win with a clean sheet in the first game of the Premier League weekend.


Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: This hasn't been the season that either Pep Guardiola or the Manchester City fans may have been expecting, but it would be considered a disaster if the club failed to finish in the top four of the Premier League. Slips from Manchester United and Arsenal does mean Manchester City are still in control of their own destiny and the remaining Premier League games suggest they should be good enough.

However three of those four games are to be played at the Etihad Stadium where Manchester City have failed to offer a consistent goal threat despite the obvious talent they have at their disposal. They haven't lost many games here in the Premier League, but Manchester City have only won 50% of them while they have not scored more home goals than the likes of West Brom, Bournemouth and Hull City.

That is not really good enough for a club that has the kind of plans Manchester City do, but the return of Gabriel Jesus is a plus especially with minutes now behind him on his return. He has a lot of attributes that Guardiola likes and shows he can put misses behind him when converting another chance against Middlesbrough last weekend.

I expect a much more positive line up than the one that began at the Riverside Stadium in this home game which means the likes of Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling restored in forward positions. That should give Manchester City plenty of belief against a Crystal Palace team that are almost certainly safe from the drop and who are missing three or four key defensive figures.

No one should underestimate a Crystal Palace team who have won at Chelsea and Liverpool in recent weeks, but they have looked a little fatigued in back to back home losses. I also think Sam Allardyce suggesting they are already safe on 38 points may have just influenced a couple of players to drop their intensity even a little bit and that isn't going to be enough at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

I do think Crystal Palace may make it difficult for a time, but Manchester City should have enough in the final third to break the resistance down and especially against a Crystal Palace defence hit by injuries. Eventually I am expecting Manchester City to win by a couple of goals on the day and I will back them to cover this Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Stoke City Pick: This is the kind of game towards the end of a long domestic season where you have to really begin to search for angles and motivational reasons for a team to perform. Both Bournemouth and Stoke City do have the motivation for a top half finish, but it feels that is a bigger deal for Bournemouth who also have home advantage in this one.

The absence of Benik Afobe would be a blow considering how well his partnership with Josh King has been working for Bournemouth, but I do think they are a team with more confidence than Stoke City overall. They have definitely been winning more games towards the end of the season so momentum looks to be behind Bournemouth who can secure the League double over Stoke City having seen The Potters do that to them last season.

A lack of goals is a real concern for Mark Hughes considering some of the talent Stoke City are able to call upon, and no goals in 6 away Premier League games makes it very difficult to avoid losses. That might show up here against an attacking Bournemouth team who have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League home games.

Stoke City were beaten 2-0 at Swansea City in their last away game and have also lost at West Brom and Burnley in recent away games. None of those sides were considered to be in great form that you can wipe away those losses and I think backing Bournemouth at odds against looks a decent price.


Burnley v West Brom Pick: The season is coming to an end for both Burnley and West Brom and will be looked back upon with genuine feelings of pride. Neither has been involved in a relegation dogfight for any length of time and both Sean Dyche and Tony Pulis need to be given a lot of credit for that.

In saying that, Pulis has struggled to get a tune out of his players ever since West Brom reached 40 points and that is highlighted with 6 losses from 8 Premier League games. A lack of goals in recent games is a concern for a side that isn't producing too many clean sheets and that makes Burnley look a decent price to add to their stunning home record.

Recent weeks have not been so kind to Burnley at Turf Moor, but they did beat Stoke City here recently and the 0-2 win at Crystal Palace has to inspire some confidence for them. This is a team that will look to end their season at home on a high and I think that is motivation enough to back them here.

At odds against you can't complain about the price either as it looks fair enough to me and I think West Brom might be a little more 'mentally on their holidays' than Burnley at this moment. Burnley needed a big win last weekend and produced it and I am not sure they will be completely relaxed, while the fans will be behind them at Turf Moor than can get a little more energy into the legs.

It will likely be close all through the fixture, but I will look for Burnley to earn the three points here.


Hull City v Sunderland Pick: If this match had taken place three months ago, there is no way that Hull City would be as short to win it as they are to beat Sunderland this weekend. The layers have clearly factored in a strong home run, but also seem to be putting a lot of weight into the fact that Sunderland are relegated to produce the price they have.

Of course I do think Hull City are the more likely winners having won 4 Premier League games in a row at home and the lack of goals in the Sunderland side is a big concern going into the NEXT season. That will be something they need to resolve in the upcoming transfer window now that Jermain Defoe is expected to leave, but this current group of players have to be short of confidence when making the short trip to a north east rival.

The lack of real effort and belief in recent weeks is unlikely to be changed now that relegation is concerned and many of these players are already perhaps considering where they will be playing next season.

On the other hand, Hull City are playing with confidence at home and know the importance of winning their remaining home games to stay in the Premier League. That brings a pressure of its own, but Hull City have dealt with it at the KCOM Stadium and I do think they can win this game.

I considered picking Hull City to win this game with a clean sheet considering how Sunderland have been lacking in front of goal, but Hull City's clean sheet record is not the best. Hull City have won 6 of their last 7 home games in the Premier League, all under Marco Silva, and half of those wins have come by a couple of goals.

That includes wins over Middlesbrough and Watford in their last two here and I will back Hull City to secure the win by covering the Asian Handicap this week.


Leicester City v Watford Pick: There is not a lot for either Leicester City or Watford to play for in the remaining month of the season and so it can be hard to read into the motivation for this fixture.

Home advantage is strong enough for me considering Leicester City's performances at the King Power Stadium for Craig Shakespeare with their run of wins coming to an end in the 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid. They have been playing well enough all around to think they can produce a strong performance here, although there is clearly a far less carnival atmosphere compared with twelve months ago.

Leicester City also face a Watford team who have struggled away from home in recent weeks and didn't look that interested when losing 2-0 at Hull City. That is the fourth away loss suffered in a row and Watford haven't scored in any of those games which makes it hard to make a case for them this weekend.

There is enough going for Leicester City at the moment to think they can get the better of Watford here and I am looking for them to come through with a relatively straight-forward win. I will back The Foxes to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Swansea City v Everton Pick: There is a lot more on the line for Swansea City than for Everton this week as the games begin to run down on the former's chances to get out of the bottom three and maintain a spot in the Premier League. The pressure could certainly be on by the time this game kicks off on Saturday afternoon if Hull City have won their League game against Sunderland, but Paul Clement can only focus on what his own team can do.

They have played well at the Liberty Stadium having won 4 of their last 6 here, but they do face a tough Everton team who may not win a lot of their away Premier League games, but simply don't lose many either.

I am expecting this to be a tough game for both teams simply because Everton have not been as strong away from home when it comes to scoring goals and creating chances. Their players have already secured their Europa League place and some are looking to move to pastures new and exciting which may mean the motivation factor is an issue for Ronald Koeman.

The lack of away goals will mean Swansea City have a chance here, but the rigid shape Everton have defensively could be tough to breach. It makes picking a winner very difficult, but I am not anticipating a glut of goals in this one regardless.

Only 1 of their last 5 Premier League games against one another have finished with more than two goals scored while 3 of the last 5 Swansea City home games and 5 of the last 7 Everton away games have ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

The tension in the Liberty Stadium and the style of football both employ could make this another tight game for Swansea City and I am looking for less than three goals to be shared out on Saturday afternoon.


Liverpool v Southampton Pick: The rest of the teams fighting for a place in the top four will be hoping that Southampton show a little more fighting spirit than they have in recent weeks and perhaps upset Liverpool at Anfield. It looks a long shot with a number of the players looking like they are not on board with what the manager is asking of them, although they did show something in the final third against Chelsea which could cause Liverpool some problems.

Realistically Liverpool should be too good for Southampton on Sunday, but it all depends on whether Philippe Coutinho is back. The expectation is that the Brazilian will return from a dead leg, but without him this match will be much tougher.

While Southampton have been conceding goals regularly in recent games, the absence of Coutinho to go with Sadio Mane will take away something significant from Liverpool.

As I have said though, I do think Coutinho will play and Liverpool will give Southampton some real problems when they go forward. They should create chances and I would be surprised if they are not able to break down Southampton for the first time this season considering the lack of focus The Saints have been playing with.

On the other hand, Southampton did produce some solid set pieces against Chelsea and I would think that is going to play a part in this one too. Liverpool have not been that good defensively and Southampton have the pace in the final third to create chances of their own.

Unlike the first three games between Liverpool and Southampton this season, I am expecting this one to have a few more chances and goals attached to it. I imagine both teams will score, but Liverpool's motivation will likely see them secure the win, although I will keep it more simple and look for at least three goals to be shared out.


Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: It has been a long time since Arsenal and Manchester United have met each other with both clubs sitting outside the top four in the Premier League table, and certainly not when we have reached May. The winning team on Sunday will give themselves a chance of breaking into the Champions League places while the losing team will have to accept they are likely out of that race at the end of the weekend regardless of results elsewhere.

That makes it a very important fixture and one where you have to think Jose Mourinho is playing some mind games by suggesting he will make wholesale changes to his side. I do think Manchester United will make some changes with the Second Leg of the Europa League Semi Final in mind, but I am still expecting a strong starting eleven.

There is no love lost between Mourinho and Arsene Wenger and so this has a similar feel to when Mourinho took his changed Chelsea side to Anfield a couple of years back. Back then it was expected that a changed Chelsea focusing on Champions League Semi Final fixtures would roll over for a desperate Liverpool team, but instead they came away with a solid 0-2 win.

Mourinho has put together a defensive shape that will give his Manchester United a chance to frustrate what is clearly not a vintage Arsenal team. There is talent in the home squad that has to be respected, especially Alexis Sanchez, but I feel the prices are an overreaction to a statement made by Mourinho, one that I am not fully buying with the players that will likely start this fixture.

His record against Arsene Wenger also can't be ignored with just a single loss in 16 previous head to head meetings. The last 3 times Mourinho has taken a team to the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League he has come away with a point and Manchester United are proving to be a stubborn nut to crack on their travels.

I do imagine Arsenal will have some chances through the fixture, but Manchester United can pose a real threat on the counter attack themselves. The Arsenal defence is clearly a weakness and I am looking for Manchester United to avoid defeat here with the draw that neither team wants a real player.


Chelsea v Middlesbrough Pick: If Tottenham Hotspur can win on Friday night at the London Stadium, Chelsea will be under the most pressure to respond in their next two Premier League games played on Monday and then Friday evening. However I can't see Chelsea slipping up when facing the teams they have left and I would expect them to beat Middlesbrough at Stamford Bridge.

The pressure will not be any less on Middlesbrough who still have a chance to avoid relegation, but will have to produce a win at Stamford Bridge to give themselves a chance. Since Steve Agnew has come in as manager, they have struggled with the balance between attack and defence and that has really shown up in their last couple of away games.

Those defeats at Hull City and Bournemouth have been really disappointing and Middlesbrough have conceded four goals in both of those fixtures. That doesn't bode well when heading to face Chelsea who have scored 11 goals in 3 games since their 2-0 loss at Manchester United.

Chelsea have also scored plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge throughout the season and I can see them putting up a few against a Middlesbrough team that may end up chasing the game at some point. Even if they don't, Chelsea have opened up better teams than this Middlesbrough one and I will be looking for them to secure a comfortable win on the evening.

The layers think the same with short odds for Chelsea to cover the Asian Handicap as well as for a win with a clean sheet. However I think Chelsea can be backed to score at least three times in this one, something they have done in more than half of their home Premier League games, and that is where I will go with this fixture.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.40 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Burnley @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hull City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City-Everton Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (May 5-7)

The Champions League and Europa League Semi Finals take place this week and they should be some fascinating games as the season fast approaches a close.


Juventus v Real Madrid Pick: The Serie A title was clinched yet again by Juventus, but the real gauge of their success will be whether they can turn domestic triumphs into European victory in the Champions League. In the late 1990's, Juventus were the team to beat in the Champions League as they reached three consecutive Finals, but they haven't won this competition in nineteen seasons.

In fact this is the first appearance Juventus have had in the Champions League Semi Finals since 2003 when they beat Real Madrid 4-3 on aggregate before eventually going down to Milan in a penalty shoot out in the Final. Juventus can put in a full shift into the two games to be played in this Semi Final with the title secured, especially as Real Madrid are still battling in La Liga to overturn Barcelona, but that isn't necessary enough to see them through.

As good as Juventus have been in Italy, they were clearly seen as the worst of the four remaining teams in the Champions League as they get set to take on the defending Champions. They have won 9 of their last 10 games at home in all competitions, and they have won 5 of their last 6 in the Champions League in Turin, but Juventus weren't that impressive against Monaco in the Quarter Finals and Real Madrid are the toughest test they have had to face here all season.

Juventus did draw with Atletico Madrid in the Group Stage here, but Real Madrid come to town with a returning Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale and they look like they have a lot of goals in the team. A 2-3 win at Sevilla on Saturday shows what Real Madrid are capable of when they get their counter-attack just right, although Juventus might be quite content to sit back and wait to try and hit Real Madrid themselves.

Real Madrid had won 5 straight away games in the Champions League before a goalless draw with Atletico Madrid in the Quarter Final, but their city rivals have had something of an Indian Sign over them. There is also some concern that Spanish sides have when facing Italian opposition as they can easily be frustrated by the strong defensive shape that they can produce, but Juventus have to feel they need a lead to take to Madrid in the Second Leg.

Carlo Ancelotti's men only really play one way and will look to get forward and score the goals that can put them in a strong position to progress to their second consecutive Champions League Final. I can see this being a more entertaining game than some would expect as Real Madrid get forward and Juventus try to get something to take to the Santiago Bernebeu.

I did consider Real Madrid to win the game considering their attacking ability even away from home, but the two Group Stage games played between these teams just two years ago showed how much Juventus will be able to trouble Real Madrid too. If the Italian Champions can play with positivity, they might have something to hold onto in Madrid, but it is hard to imagine Real Madrid not scoring at least once and I do fancy goals in this game.

It does look a big price for there being at least three goals to be scored with the teams that will take to the field on Tuesday. Both teams have players that can finish any chances that come their way and I think Juventus and Real Madrid will each score once and neither is likely to settle too much for that result.


Barcelona v Bayern Munich Pick: This is easily the better of the two Champions League Semi Finals and there are a number of storylines that will be the attention of the media heading into the tie. The first is clearly the return of Pep Guardiola to the Nou Camp for the first time since leaving Barcelona and taking over as the manager of Bayern Munich.

The second is Barcelona attempting to earn a measure of revenge for their crushing 0-7 defeat to Bayern Munich in the 2013 Semi Finals which ended with the latter going through and winning the competition.

Things have changed for both teams in the last couple of years as Bayern Munich have to recover from their own Semi Final demons having been crushed by Real Madrid at this stage last season. However, they have to have some confidence this time around after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to hammer Porto in the Quarter Final, although the defeat in the away tie has to be a concern as they get set to go to Barcelona.

Another issue for Bayern Munich has been failure to take their domestic form into away games in the Champions League as they have lost half of their last 6 in this competition. However, the side have had every chance to prepare for this game having wrapped up the Bundesliga title and Guardiola will know a lot about the players that his team will be facing this week.

Barcelona will be wondering if Guardiola can slow down the impact that Lionel Messi can have on the game, but they have to be very confident in this tie with their front three clicking. Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez might be the most feared forward line in Europe and Bayern Munich's defence has looked anything but watertight on their travels in the Champions League.

Since losing that Semi Final to Bayern Munich, Barcelona have won 9 of their last 10 Champions League home games and they have won all 5 played this season. This is a team that can create a lot of chances at home and their direct style of play with pose Bayern Munich plenty of problems, especially after seeing what Porto did.

The absence of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery does give Barcelona the edge in the tie, but Bayern Munich's possession based attack should give this defence a real test too. As good as Barcelona have been over the last couple of months, they still don't look like a team that is comfortable when put under pressure and I do think Bayern Munich will score, although I still fancy Barcelona to have some sort of lead to take to Bavaria for the Second Leg.

I believe this will be another exciting Champions League Semi Final, but one where I believe the home team with have the advantage going into the Second Leg. However, the feeling that Bayern Munich will score makes me feel that Barcelona are worth backing in a game where there will be at least three goals shared, a far more appealing price than simply backing the Spanish side to win at odds on.

Both Manchester City and Porto scored three goals in home wins over Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season and Barcelona's front three are more than capable of causing havoc for them too.


Sevilla v Fiorentina Pick: At this stage of the Europa League, the four teams involved are not just challenging for a major trophy but also a place in the Champions League next season and that might up the pressure a little more. Sevilla will come into the Semi Finals with the experience that comes as defending Champions in the Europa League, but they can also earn a place in the Champions League from their League form in Spain.

Finding the right balance over the last month of the season is the priority for Sevilla, but that is not a concern for Fiorentina who are struggling to even finish in the European places in Italy. It has been a positive season for Fiorentina for the majority of the season, but they have really begun to focus on getting it right in the Europa League, although they are still considered as an outsider to win the tournament behind Sevilla and Napoli.

That won't be of major concern for Vincenzo Montella and Fiorentina considering their performances in the Europa League as they have lost just 1 of their 12 games in the competition this season. The side have been more impressive away from home where Fiorentina are unbeaten in their last 12 games in the Europa League since the beginning of last season.

You can only be impressed with that kind of record, but not many of their opponents can be considered of the level of Sevilla who have won 8 straight home games in this competition including all 6 they have played this season. Sevilla are a team that has plenty of goals in them at home and they have scored at least twice in their last 7 at home, although they were beaten 2-3 here by Real Madrid at the weekend.

The defeat might have dented some confidence, but Real Madrid are a much better team than Fiorentina and Sevilla will feel they are going to have enough to at least have a lead to take into the Second Leg. Fiorentina have conceded a fair few goals in their last four away games in all competitions, but they have been saving their best for the Europa League and they did give Juventus all they could handle in a 3-2 loss in Turin last week.

It won't be easy for Sevilla, but they have played very well at home for much of the season and they have the experience of winning the Europa League. That might be enough for them to take a lead to Florence, although Fiorentina seem comfortable playing on their travels in the Europa League. However, the goals being conceded is a big concern heading to Seville and that might be too much to overcome.

If Sevilla match their recent goal-scoring form at home, they might just have enough to win this First Leg and get into a position to return to the Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)

May Update: 2-3, - 1.60 Units (10 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Madrid Tennis Picks 2014 (May 6th)

Monday proved to be a tough first day for the picks, but thankfully Grigor Dimitrov secured a win in the First Round that helped ease the losses for the day.

There is plenty more tennis scheduled for Tuesday as a busy week continues, but hopefully it is a day where the success of the picks turns around.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I have no doubt that Tommy Haas would have been disappointed with how his tournament ended in Munich last week, but he should also take the positives that came with his return to the court.

A couple of wins would have boosted the confidence after a shoulder injury kept him off the Tour and I would imagine he is going to be good for the qualifier Igor Sijsling.

Before winning those couple of matches to get into the main draw, Sijsling had really been struggling for wins that can't have helped any confidence he had. The clay courts haven't usually been the favourite surface of the Dutchman either and I think he could have a tough time against Haas, an opponent that has beaten him in all three previous matches.

It likely won't be as straight-forward as I would like, but Haas should still prove too good and come through 75, 64.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Nicolas Almagro remains one of the better clay court players on the Tour and will be looking for another big week in Madrid after finally beating Rafael Nadal in Barcelona in his most recent tournament.

The serve, the power in the groundstrokes and the patience should give Almagro a good chance to see off Andrey Golubev without too many issues in this First Round match.

It is the lack of patience that is going to trouble Golubev, although the Kazakhstan player is capable of playing some lights out tennis when I have seen him in the past.

However, the experience of Almagro should prove too much in a 64, 63 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Fernando Verdasco won the title in Houston on the clay courts and he should be able to have a decent run here in Madrid as he takes on Roberto Bautista-Agut in the Second Round.

Verdasco had a strong win in the First Round over Andreas Seppi and he is the better clay court of the two that will be competing against one another on Tuesday.

I expect the serve to be better protected by Verdasco in this match and that should give him a real edge in my opinion. As competitive and resilient Bautista-Agut is, the clay court should favour the bigger hitter in Verdasco, especially in the conditions in Madrid, and I like Verdasco to come through 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 1-2, - 2 Units (6 Units Staked, - 33% Yield)

Tennis Picks Madrid 2013 (May 6th)

The second big Masters event on the clay courts has begun in Madrid and the television cameras will pick up the event from Monday after only five First Round matches were scheduled for Sunday. My outright picks from the tournament this week can be found here.

Most of the big names in the Men's draw won't be starting their path to the winner's circle until Tuesday or Wednesday, while the Women's draw has all of the top players getting in on the action from the First Round.

It is a big month of tennis starting this week, some would argue it is a big couple of months with two Grand Slam events and two Masters being played, and hopefully this will be the start of a productive period for the blog.


Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Nicolas Almagro should experience plenty of support in Madrid and this looks a decent match up to get things going in this tournament against Tobias Kamke.

There is no doubt that Kamke can get things going at times in his matches, but more often than not his best success will come on the faster courts where his attempts at winners are a little more productive. On the clay courts, he would have to rely on consistency and that isn't always a strong point, particularly when it comes to playing someone who is as comfortable on the clay courts as Almagro certainly is.

Kamke will also be a little more familiar with the current conditions in Madrid, following the removal of the blue court experiment from twelve months ago, after coming through qualifying, but his serve is a definite weakness that can be exposed on the clay.

I also think Almagro looked in very good nick when reaching the Final in Barcelona a couple of weeks ago, only finding Rafael Nadal too good for him and I do like his chances of winning this match 4 and 2.


Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Javier Marti: There is no doubting Grigor Dimitrov's natural ability on a tennis court, but it is wonderful to see the Bulgarian putting in the hard work that will surely help him reach the top 10 in the World Rankings sooner rather than later. In my personal opinion, Dimitrov certainly has the talent to become a future Grand Slam winner and a World Number 1, but he has to keep working hard at his game.

Dimitrov has pushed some of the biggest names on the Tour in matches throughout 2013 and he will have another chance to take on Novak Djokovic if he can get through this First Round clash.

He is playing a young Spaniard in Javier Marti to open his campaign here and it is clear that you have to take any player that grows up on the clay court seriously. However, he has struggled when playing at this level and was comfortably beaten in matches against Jarkko Nieminen and Mikhail Youzhny last season and I would say that Dimitrov has more ability than both of those players.

Marti has also tried to qualify for Main Tour events all season and failed to do so and I think Dimitrov will be strong enough to knock him off with a 3 and 3 win.


Jerzy Janowicz v Sam Querrey: The clay court season is not the favourite time of the year for the big-serving Americans and it hasn't been a good time for Sam Querrey. It looks like he hasn't had the best First Round draw considering Jerzy Janowicz, although it has to be said that the majority of success the Pole has had on the surface has come below the Main Tour level.

This season Janowicz has lost both of his matches played on clay, but he could take advantage of the fact that Querrey is yet to play a match on the surface and the American has also been suffering with an injury that has kept him off the Tour since the Davis Cup tie against Serbia a couple of months ago.

With Querrey likely still going to need some time to get himself adjusted to the slower courts, he could have a tough time in this one and that is the main reason I like Janowicz at the prices. However, don't be surprised if he needs three sets and this is fairly nip and tuck towards the end.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.07 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jerzy Janowicz @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)




Daily Picks: 2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)
Outright Picks: 1-1, + 0.50 Units (4 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Season 2013: + 39.04 Units (531 Units Staked, + 7.35% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Weekend Football Picks (May 4-6)

The football season enters it's final month in most of the top European Leagues and this weekend is critical for teams fighting for Champions League places, those looking to avoid the drop and also promotion places for the Premier League up for grabs.

It can be a tense time of the season for some of the teams involved, but others may already be looking forward to their Summer holidays and getting ready for next season so it is good to be careful at this time of the season when making any picks.


Fulham v Reading Pick: Fulham have been one of those teams that have perhaps being playing out the string a little too much over the last couple of weeks and that has seen them struggle to score goals and subsequently win games.

However, they get a good chance for some feel good factor at Craven Cottage as they host already relegated Reading on Saturday. There is no doubt that Reading will give a lot of effort in the game, but they don't have a lot of quality in the side and that has seen them struggle this season.

Nigel Adkins would certainly like to grab his first win as manager before the Championship season begins in April, but this looks a tough test for them against a Fulham team that will want to end their season at home on a high. The lack of goals for Fulham has to be a concern, especially at odds on, but I do think they still want to finish in the top half of the table and I do think they will win this game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: Hugo Lloris has made it clear that Tottenham Hotspur have to win this game if they really want to make the Champions League, especially after dropping two points against Wigan Athletic last weekend. At the start of the weekend, Spurs are only 2 points off a top four place with an extra game to play compared with their rivals Arsenal, but dropping points in this fixture will put a lot of pressure on them to grab a win from the visit to Chelsea during the week.

Spurs can at least point to the fact that they all of their attacking weapons back in the squad for selection and I think they could be playing Southampton at the right time. While they are not mathematically safe, there is a feeling that 39 points will likely be enough for Southampton unless Wigan Athletic and the teams below them all have brilliant runs.

With that in mind, it will be easy for Southampton to perhaps exhale, as they did in their 0-3 loss to West Brom at home last weekend, and that could give Tottenham the impetus to beat them here. I do think Spurs will win and likely by at least a couple of goals to move into fourth spot, even for a couple of hours.


West Brom v Wigan Athletic Pick: Only Roberto Martinez could have been happy in the Wigan Athletic camp when they saw Aston Villa thumping Sunderland 6-1 on Monday night and it is beginning to look like that their time in the Premier League is coming to a close. Wigan are 5 points off the safety positions and although they one extra game to play, they are beginning to get desperate to grab the three points in this one.

It does actually look a decent chance for Wigan to do just that as they have won on 2 of their last 4 visits to the Hawthornes, including last season, and they have created enough chances to have a lot more than the 1 point they earned from their last 3 Premier League games.

With West Brom looking in a strong position to finish in the top half of the table, there is a chance that Wigan could grab the three points here as they will be the more motivated of the teams. Before their 0-3 win at Southampton last weekend, West Brom had failed to win any of 4 Premier League games and had lost 2 of those games, while they have only won 2 of their last 8 at home in all competitions.

If Wigan can take their chances, they have every chance of stealing the three points here and putting some real pressure on the likes of Aston Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle United.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Newcastle United were awful in their 0-6 home loss to Liverpool last weekend and I am expecting them to put together a much more solid performance this weekend. However, there seems to be some disruption in the locker room and Alan Pardew is certainly feeling the pressure as he takes charge against one of his former clubs.

You also can't underestimate the motivation that Sam Allardyce and Kevin Nolan will have against their former club for West Ham United, while Andy Carroll can show Newcastle United fans what they have been missing since he left the club around eighteen months ago.

West Ham have also been a lot more comfortable at Upton Park throughout the season and have made it very difficult for any side that has visited here regardless of the result. With Newcastle United struggling away from home for most of the season themselves, a small interest in the home team to win this one looks the call.


Queens Park Rangers v Arsenal Pick: Some of the players were laughing and joking as they exited the Majedski Stadium following a draw that consigned Queens Park Rangers to life back in the Championship and it is that attitude that would have irritated the management and the fans of the club. They should be motivated to play Arsenal at home this weekend, but I do think there is a lack of quality in this squad that should be exposed by the Gunners.

Arsenal have won 4 straight away games in all competitions including a 0-2 win at Bayern Munich, and with Queens Park Rangers struggling for goals at home, you have to think Arsenal can win this one with room to spare.

Of course, there is no way of telling how QPR react to being able to play with the freedom that comes with having no pressure on their shoulders, but too many of the players don't have the same love for the club as the fans and may already be thinking about their next club. If Arsenal score early, there is every chance this could be a terrible day in the office for the Rangers fans, and I do think the away side will win with room to spare.


Brighton v Wolves Pick: Brighton don't have to win this game as they are pretty much locked in as the team to finish 4th in the Championship, while Wolves need to win this game to give themselves any chance of avoiding relegation to League One.

However, I think Wolves are resigned to their fate now and I am sure Gus Poyet will not want his Brighton team to lose any momentum going into the Play Offs and I think they will be able to put the final nail in the Wolves' coffin.

Brighton have won plenty of games at the Amex Stadium in recent weeks and I think they will set their tone for the Play Offs with another one here. An early goal for Brighton or either Barnsley or Peterborough United could demoralise the Wolves players and they may just drop their heads enough to give the home team the opportunity to take home the three points.


Hull City v Cardiff City Pick: There is no doubt that Hull City have been choking their promotion chances away in the last couple of weeks and I have a feeling there could yet be more pressure on them by the time this one is completed. Steve Bruce knows his side will be promoted to the Premier League with a win over Champions Cardiff City, but anything less will give Watford the chance to overtake the Tigers on the final day.

Hull do look remarkably short to win this game considering the recent results and performances they have put in, including a disappointing 2-0 loss at Barnsley last weekend. The pressure is all on them to win this game and while Cardiff have nothing to play for, they won't roll over for Hull in this one and certainly have the quality to get a result.

This is going to be a tense day at the KC Stadium and an early goal for Watford in their home game against Leeds United will only increase that tension. I just have a feeling that Hull have already cracked and I think Cardiff will do enough to avoid defeat and leave the home fans with their heads glued to the radio to hear the score at Vicarage Road.


MY PICKS: Fulham @ 1.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wigan Athletic @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.33 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Cardiff City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)



April Final: 10-21, - 9.15 Units (45 Units Staked, - 20.33% Yield)
March Final: 16-20, + 7.43 Units (55 Units Staked, + 13.51% Yield)
February Final: 14-23, - 2.81 Units (48 Units Staked, - 5.85% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 3.42 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.63% Yield)

English Football Weekend Picks (May 5-8)

That actually makes it look like a really long weekend, but I have set the dates like that in case I cover the Liverpool-Chelsea Premier League game on Tuesday night.

It will also allow me to put the Second Legs of the Championship Play Offs into this thread, so I will keep a separate thread for the Europa League Final which takes place next Wednesday night I believe.

This looks like being a big weekend in terms of sorting a couple of things out at the bottom, while the title race could be effectively over come Sunday tea time. We should also have a slightly clearer picture as to which four teams are going to be making the Champions League places through the Premier League (and assuming Chelsea do not win the Final on May 19).


Arsenal v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14115-Arsenal-v-Norwich-City.htm)

Newcastle United v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14117-Newcastle-United-v-Manchester-City.htm)

QPR v Stoke City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14120-QPR-v-Stoke-City.htm)

Bolton Wanderers v West Brom Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14121-Bolton-Wanderers-v-West-Brom.htm)

Fulham v Sunderland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14122-Fulham-v-Sunderland.htm)

Chelsea v Liverpool FA Cup Final Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14124-Chelsea-v-Liverpool.htm)

Liverpool v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14160-Liverpool-v-Chelsea.htm)


MY PICKS: Arsenal to win to nil @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United win or draw on Double Chance @ 2.38 Bet Fred (2 Units)
QPR to win and at least 3 goals scored (Quatro) @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bolton Wanderers to win and at least 3 goals scored (Quatro) @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fulham-Sunderland Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea-Liverpool FA Cup Final Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bodog (2 Units)
Liverpool-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)