There are still two Series that are being played in the First Round, but six of the remaining eight teams in the NBA PlayOffs are known and the Game 1's will begin on Saturday.
For the most part those that were expected to make it through have done so, although the Milwaukee Bucks have missed out with the Number 1 Seed in the East and the clear favourite to win the NBA Championship surprisingly eliminated.
Losing to the Miami Heat was an upset, but losing in five games was a huge blow to the 2021 Champions and the Bucks will head into the off-season with some questions to answer about the make up of the roster.
The defeat has certainly opened up the Eastern Conference where all four teams will feel they can make it through to the NBA Finals and there won't be a team that will intimidate them out of the Western Conference.
Of course I have to mention the New York Knicks before heading into this thread.
A long suffering fanbase has finally got a team to be proud of and a first PlayOff Series win in a decade just sounds plain wrong- the Knicks should never be spending that much time in the wilderness!
However, the five game Series win over the Cleveland Cavaliers will have given the team a lot of belief and I don't think they will be concerned by the other teams left in the East, even if those teams have a lot more PlayOff experience than the Knicks.
All New York can do is continue to play hard and hope for good health through the remainder of the post-season and see where that takes them. They have already surpassed pre-season expectations and this team has nothing to lose from here.
Let's Go Knicks.
NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Finals Picks- Games 1 to 4
As I have done with the First Round, I am splitting the Series into two threads to just offer a cleaner look at the selections.
Some Series will not need a Game 5 through to Game 7, but all have to have at least four games and I will place the selections in this thread.
The PlayOff Picks in the First Round proved to be very productive, but things get much more difficult to call in the Conference Semi Finals which begin in the Western Conference on Saturday.
Saturday 29th April
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Some are suggesting the winner of this Western Conference Semi Final Series will go on and represent the Conference in the NBA Finals and that may increase the pressure on both the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Both have enjoyed strong seasons and comfortable 4-1 wins in the First Round over the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers respectively so there will be a confidence inside the locker rooms that cannot be dismissed, although the Nuggets and Suns will recognise the difficulty of the challenge in front of them over the next two weeks.
The chemistry within the Denver locker room has been built over a much longer period than the one inside the Suns locker room, but Kevin Durant's arrival in Phoenix has sparked something special.
The Nuggets have the depth and the home court advantage, while the four regular season games were split between the teams and all four went to the home team.
These teams have met twice with Durant in the line up for the Phoenix Suns and both have been won by the Suns, although those games at the end of March and early April are not a massive indication as to how this Series may develop. They were games in which the Nuggets rested their key players, but that will not be the case on Saturday and I do think the home advantage may be important in this Game 1.
Home advantage has been huge for the Denver Nuggets and Game 1's in the Conference Semi Finals have been dominated by those teams. They have a depth that may be tough for the Phoenix Suns to cope with, although I cannot ignore the poor run that favourites of less than 6 points have been on in the opening game of the Conference Semi Finals.
Phoenix have shown they have scorers that can take over games and Kevin Durant has deferred to Devin Booker when it comes to handling the ball, and that has really worked for the Suns who have been very strong in the majority of games that Durant has played in.
I have a lot of respect for both teams, but I do think the Denver Nuggets are going to be very difficult to beat at home and they can open this Series by laying down a marker to the Phoenix Suns.
Both teams can get going from the three point line, but the Nuggets Defensive unit have been smothering at home all season and I think they can use Mile High to their advantage and win this game.
One more concern is that the Nuggets have not been the best team to back as a favourite of fewer than three points this season. The locker room also have to prove that they have overcome some really poor experiences in the post-season over the last couple of years, but those have been hindered by injury and this Denver team is healthy, playing some strong Basketball and may have the bench to make the difference in Game 1.
Sunday 30th April
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Fans of a certain age will remember the rivalry between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks when it comes to PlayOff Basketball from the late 1990s through to 2000, and it has been a long time since the two have met in a Series of this importance.
Both were lower Seeds in the First Round and both the Knicks and Heat came through in five games- the Miami Heat are the first ever team to come through the Play In Tournament and win a First Round Series and the upset of the Milwaukee Bucks will have sent shockwaves through the Eastern Conference, while the New York Knicks were a pretty trendy pick to overcome the Number 4 Seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
The performance of the Knicks has really pumped up the long suffering fanbase, although Julius Randle went down with an injury in Game 5 and is doubtful for Game 1 of this Conference Semi Final Series to be played in The Garden. His absence would hurt, but the Miami Heat won't be offering much sympathy with a banged up roster entering this Semi Final Series.
Jimmy Butler is healthy though and he is the best player on the court, but I do think Josh Hart can match up well with him. In general the Knicks have tightened up Defensively and I do think they will make things much tougher than the Milwaukee Bucks did for the Heat in the First Round Series, while a natural regression back towards the mean has to be expected from the Miami shooters.
You can't discount Butler and what he is able to do when putting the Heat on his back, but I do like the New York Knicks in the Series.
The Game 1 line looks tough though with the Heat playing with momentum and likely feeling the pressure is on New York as a significant favourite. Miami have the PlayOff experiences that will help them game plan for this opening game and I do think the Heat will make this a competitive Series, even if I do think the Knicks will eventually come out on top.
Fourth Quarter comebacks have been a feature of the Heat upset over the Bucks and so they will be dangerous throughout and home teams favoured by less than 6 points have a poor recent history of covering in Game 1.
New York did beat the Heat by 9 points in the last game between them in the regular season and they did win three of the four games, but the first two wins were by a narrow margin.
This suggests another tight, competitive game is likely to be played between the two teams and I do think the Knicks will have some nerves. Being without Julius Randle will hurt and I think the Heat can be backed with the points, although I will be rooting much harder for the New York Knicks to find a way to get to 1-0 in the Conference Semi Final Series.
Monday 1st May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: With the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks out of the NBA Championship race, the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers enter the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series as the favourites in the East. However, it feels like the injury bug that has routinely arrived in Philadelphia as the PlayOffs have begun is back in town and dug into Joel Embiid.
An early First Round Series win over the Brooklyn Nets has given Embiid all of the time he needs to recover, but reports coming out of Philadelphia are not very positive and there is a growing feeling that he may not be able to play any part in this Series. He is almost definitely going to be missing Game 1 as the 76ers prepare to visit the Boston Celtics, who made harder work of the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round than some may have imagined.
Regardless, the Celtics did win through in six games and the NBA Finalists from 2022 have plenty of experience inside the locker room to not worry about the manner of their progress.
It does feel like the window is closing for this Boston Celtics team, but they are going to be very difficult to stop and even for a fully healthy Philadelphia team.
Without Joel Embiid it feels very unlikely that the 76ers can beat the Boston Celtics in a seven game Series and I do think the higher Seeded team is going to come through.
In saying that, you have to feel Doc Rivers and his Coaching staff have been preparing to play without Joel Embiid over the last week and the players are going to want to put in a huge effort to try and steal home court away from Boston over the next couple of days. With a strong Head Coach, I do think Rivers will have prepared Philadelphia properly and this is a big spread, especially if Boston perhaps overlook a team that is missing their best player.
Boston are too experienced to really take this Series lightly, but covering a big number like this one has proven to be very difficult for home favourites in the Conference Semi Finals.
While home favourites of at least 6 points have been very good at covering in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals, those asking to cover at least 8 points are just 12-19 against the spread in recent years in this Round.
The Celtics did beat Philadelphia by 9 points back in October, but my feeling is that we are going to see the absolute best effort from the 76ers as the team look to make up for the absence of Joel Embiid. While it has not been officially confirmed, the 76ers will know how they are going to approach this game and I do think that will help them in trying to keep Game 1 competitive, although the Series will be relatively one-sided if the 76ers are not going to get Joel Embiid back.
Philadelphia were 11-5 without Joel Embiid this season too so they can at least compete and I will look for the 76ers to keep Game 1 close.
Of course you have to respect the Boston Celtics who can blow teams away with their depth and top two players, but they had to battle hard through the last four games of the First Round Series win over the Atlanta Hawks. While rested, the energy invested may just see Boston take a breath in Game 1 against an opponent that is without their best player and that may allow the backdoor cover at the very least for the 76ers.
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: There isn't much time to make adjustments between Game 1 and Game 2 of this Western Conference Semi Final Series and so there is some pressure on the Phoenix Suns. They tried to go haymaker for haymaker with the Number 1 Seeded Denver Nuggets in Game 1, but the Nuggets took control of the game in the first half and never looked likely to give that away in a blowout win.
With players like Devin Booker and Kevin Durant in the line up, most will be expecting much better from the Phoenix Suns in Game 2, but the oddsmakers have actually increased the line in favour of the Denver Nuggets.
There were things to like from the Suns and they can clean up some of the turnovers, which should make this a more competitive game. More intensity around the boards will be needed if the Suns are going to bring this Series back home with a split of the two games at Mile High, while Phoenix will also believe they can challenge the three point shooters much better than they did when the Series opened up.
You can't expect Denver to have an efficient day from the three point range in every game, but the Nuggets have been fluent shooting that shot in their home Arena and that will be a concern for the Phoenix Suns.
The Nuggets look to have a couple of ways to beat teams and the depth of the roster felt like it could be a huge advantage in this Series with the role players stepping up alongside Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr had a combined efficient day shooting the ball and I do think the Nuggets have the patience to find their best shot. However, Denver have to expect a reaction from the Phoenix Suns and so weathering an early storm will be the game plan for the Nuggets who have been strong at home all season.
The layers are perhaps hoping the line is one that will appeal to those who want to back the road underdog, but recent history has very much been in favour of backing the Game 2 host.
Those home teams are 8-0 against the spread in the last two seasons since the NBA Bubble PlayOff season, whole home favourites of 6.5 points or fewer are on a 14-4 run against the spread. There is no doubt that the Phoenix Suns have the qualities to make this a much closer game than the opening game of the Series, but I still think the Denver Nuggets have the depth to wear down the Suns and that will see them cover in another winning effort with some big plays in the Fourth Quarter.
Tuesday 2nd May
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: This pick would usually have been made on Monday, but you can't blame me for taking as much time as possible to see how injuries are going to affect Game 2 and the rest of this Series.
Julius Randle missed the New York Knicks defeat in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon, but I think he will be suiting up for Game 2. A late injury designation on Jalen Brunson has had the fans worrying over the last twenty-four hours, but I am sure Brunson is another who is going to be available to play, especially with the Series having three days off before the teams meet in South Florida on Saturday.
The biggest impact on the Game 2 line and the Series as a whole would have been on the Miami Heat side of the court- Jimmy Butler rolled his ankle late in the Fourth Quarter and was clearly not himself over the last five minutes of Game 1, even if he refused to leave the court and wanted to make sure the Heat took the lead in the Series.
His availability has been most in question, but at the time of writing it sounds like Butler is going to be ready to go and I think that decision is helped by the fact the Series has those three days of rest between Game 2 and Game 3 as I have mentioned. If he is not himself during the game, the Heat will be able to take Butler out, but I am sure he starts as he looks to lead the Miami Heat into a very strong position in this Conference Semi Final Series.
The Knicks will have been disappointed with their overall performance on Sunday, although it was not all down to Jalen Brunson despite the player wanting to blame himself. I think that was just showing good leadership, but a bigger problem for New York was the huge misses from three point range and the lack of Offensive boards that crushed the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Players were missing wide open looks and this is going to be a short Series if the Knicks cannot find a way to start knocking those looks down. The return of Julius Randle would be very important if only to give the Heat another player to think about having made sure they were not going to be beaten by Jalen Brunson in Game 1, while Randle's return may also take away the presence of Bam Adebyao in the paint and on the boards.
Adjustments will have to be made by the Knicks Defensively, but a limited Butler would help- they will certainly believe they can deal with Kyle Lowry better than they did in Game 1, while the Knicks will live with the Heat shooting at 33% from the three point mark as long as they improve their own performance from that distance.
I do think the Miami Heat will also live with the open looks the role players are getting for New York, but that could be dangerous with the Knicks better than their 7/34 effort from outside the arc in Game 1.
Ultimately I think the Heat have done their job in Game 1 by taking away home court from the New York Knicks and I expect a reaction from the Knicks. Historically they are in a terrible position having never won a Series when losing Game 1 at home, but recent trends have favoured the home team in Game 2 of the Semi Final Series and those teams are on a 9-0 run against the spread.
I cannot imagine the Knicks being as poor shooting the three ball again, while I expect better on the Offensive glass. At the same time, I do think the Miami Heat will not be the same with Jimmy Butler at least hobbled and this may be a team that is already thinking about the two games coming up at home when they can really take over this Series.
I was with the Heat on Sunday with the points, but I think the New York Knicks can win and cover on Tuesday.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: It took the full seven games, but the defending Champions Golden State Warriors have proven how difficult it is going to be to stop them reaching the NBA Finals yet again. There is no doubt that this team is not as strong as the one that won three out of four Championships between 2015 and 2018, but the Warriors are loaded with PlayOff experience and it has been almost a decade since they lost a best of seven Series with a team out of the Western Conference.
That kind of confidence makes them tough to shift and Steph Curry's performance in Game 7 shows that one of the all time greats is not going to do anything but put this team on his back if he has to.
An old rival will stand in the way of the Golden State Warriors in the Conference Semi Final Series which begins on Tuesday.
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers also earned a First Round Series win over a team that was Seeded higher than them and this team has been much improved since the trade deadline. Some have placed an asterisk next to the 2020 Champions because of the nature of the NBA Bubble, but that will not be the case if they can win the 2023 NBA Championship and the Lakers have to be feeling good about their chances in their current health.
Anthony Davis is a very strong support player to James, while the role players have stepped up at the end of the regular season and through the first seven games in the post-season. Coming through the Play In Tournament and then seeing off the young, vibrant Memphis Grizzlies over six games is a huge positive for the Lakers mindset, although beating the Golden State Warriors is a completely different level of test.
In saying that, the Lakers did win three of the four regular season games between these teams.
That includes a road win in February and while the narrative around the Series will be all about Steph Curry vs LeBron James again, those other players on the roster are going to be absolutely key in determining where this Series goes.
The Lakers win in March was in a game that LeBron James missed so I do think the underdog are going to feel like they have every chance in this Series.
Game 1 is important to Los Angeles as they have had a few more days of rest compared with the Golden State Warriors and did not have to suffer through the emotions of a Game 7 on the road like the Warriors just had to overcome.
Teams playing in Game 1 of a Series after a seven game Series have struggled to win outright and so there is a real appeal in playing the points with the Lakers in this one. Those teams that have won a Game 7 are just 31-51 in Game 1 of the next Series and I do think the Warriors could have spent enough emotional energy to come up short in this one.
Add in the fact that home teams laying less than 6 points as the favourite are now 4-19-1 against the spread (1-1 against the spread this season) and I do think the Lakers are the play in this one. You can never oppose the Warriors at home with a great deal of comfort, especially with their three point shooting, but I do think the Los Angeles Lakers will be ready and can keep this one close and competitive until the end.
Wednesday 3rd May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: On Tuesday Joel Embiid was named as the regular season MVP, but he made sure to mention his team mates and how proud he was of the performance in Game 1 to beat the Boston Celtics. The Philadelphia 76ers now have home court advantage and they will be looking to take a stranglehold of the Series by trying to take Game 2 on the road too.
Once again the 76ers are going to be without Embiid, but the likes of James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have shown they can carry this team if that is what is needed. They were backed up with plenty of support and the big late plays were enough for the 4 point win on the road, despite being a double digit underdog.
It was not a good performance from the Boston Celtics from a Defensive point of view as they allowed the 76ers to hit 51% of their shots from the field and failed to challenge the three point shooters who combined for a very effective 17/38 from that range.
Doc Rivers proved his ability as a Head Coach with time to prepare, but you have to believe the Celtics are going to be much more energised on the Defensive side of the court to ensure they do not fall into a big hole in the Conference Semi Final Series. The fans will arrive in the Arena with a strong expectation that the likes of James Harden and De'Anthony Melton are not going to be given the space to hit 60% of their three pointers like Game 1, especially as the Celtics have held teams to 33% from the three point arc in games played at home this season.
You have to believe the Celtics make the adjustments to be stronger on this side of the court, while there is likely to be a natural regression from the hot shooting produced by the 76ers in Game 1.
Matching the Offensive looks they produced in the first game in the Series will also be a challenge for the Boston Celtics who had a very impressive 59% shooting day from the field. Turnovers were a problem, while the Celtics were much colder from the three point range in the second half as the game got away from them.
The Celtics still managed a 10/26 shooting day from outside of the arc, but I expect them to be a little better overall as the focus intensifies after dropping the opening game.
Home teams have been strong in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals over the last couple of years and I do think the Boston Celtics will be much more focused to try and level the Series and could take advantage if the Philadelphia 76ers feel they have already achieved what they wanted from the first two games here.
Despite the loss, Boston will feel they did some nice things in Game 1 and they are more likely to be at a similar level than the 76ers who shot lights out from the three point range.
Laying big points in the Conference Semi Final Series has not been very productive, but I do think the Boston Celtics will want to get on top of Game 2 and avoid being placed in a big hole. I expect them to come out fast Offensively and to make the adjustments to get into the 76ers on the Defensive side of the court and I do think the Celtics will win and cover.
Thursday 4th May
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The defending Champions became the latest team to win a Game 7 of a NBA PlayOff Series and to lose Game 1 of their next Series when going down to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Semi Final. The game was really close going into the final seconds of the Fourth Quarter, but a missed three pointer proved costly for the Warriors and they are 1-0 down in this Series.
All credit has to be given to the Los Angeles Lakers for focusing on their own performance and not being rattled by the huge amount of three pointers attempted by the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors actually made 21 three pointers in Game 1, which is just four short of the overall attempted by the Lakers, but this will not change the game plan for the lower Seed.
Getting inside the arc and using Anthony Davis and making sure they are efficient from the field has been a positive approach from the Lakers since the trade deadline and that was the case in Game 1. I don't think the Lakers will worry about changing that and attacking the rim gave them a huge advantage when it came to getting to the Free Throw line, which also helped the Lakers in stealing away home court advantage.
Draymond Green had an interesting thought about the way LeBron James was used in Game 1 and I do think the Warriors will make some adjustments Defensively. A 40% shooting day from three point range is largely acceptable on the other side of the court, but I also think the Warriors are going to want to attack a little more and try and even out the Free Throws having had just 6 in Game 1 compared with the 29 the Lakers earned.
After losing, I am expecting a bounce back effort from the Golden State Warriors and Game 2 home teams have continued their hot streak in the Conference Semi Finals after both Denver and the New York Knicks were able to win earlier this week.
You have to believe the First Round Series has now left the system and home favourites of fewer than 7 points have had a very good record in Game 2 in recent seasons.
I think this is going to be a tough Series for the Golden State Warriors with the way the Lakers match up with them, but I think they both head to Los Angeles with the Series tied and I will look for the Warriors to do that with a win and cover.
Friday 5th May
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: Joel Embiid was back for the Philadelphia 76ers, but his return was not going to be enough for the team to shoot as well in Game 2 as they had in Game 1. Winning the opening game of this Conference Semi Final Series does mean the 76ers have stolen away home court, but holding onto that looks like it will be tough for Philadelphia even with the next two games in their own Arena.
The Boston Celtics are very experienced and will not have panicked by losing the first game, but it has become a familiar feature of the season that Boston have not really played their best when favoured by a lot of points. They have lost a number of those games outright, including to the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round and in Game 1, but the blowout win in Game 2 will make the Celtics feel much better and they will believe there is still more to come.
A heavy dose of three point shooting was the game plan from the outset and Boston did not disappoint.
The Celtics threw 51 three pointers in Game 2 compared with the 26 thrown in Game 1, but they remained steady at around the 38% mark of finding their mark and that was important to take the game away from the 76ers. Forcing Joel Embiid to get away from the rim will help any Offensive rebounding numbers, while the Boston Celtics fans will point out the amount of open three pointers that were missed in Game 2, particularly from Al Horford, that may have helped produce an even wider win.
One of the other reasons for the blowout was the massive shift from the shooting efficiency from the 76ers between Game 1 and Game 2. They managed to hit 45% of three pointers in Game 1 for the upset, but the 76ers dropped back to 30% in Game 2, while James Harden and De'Anthony Melton were not able to produce like they did.
Philadelphia will expect a bounce back effort at home, but these teams split two games here in the regular season and Boston won in the game where they were set as the road favourite.
It should be noted that road favourites have not played well in recent years in the Conference Semi Final Series and those teams are just 3-13 against the spread since 2019 (which does not include the NBA Bubble PlayOffs of 2020).
This mark does make it harder to believe in Boston, but I do think the Celtics are the superior team and those teams that have won Game 2 are 11-6 against the spread in the last seventeen Semi Final Game 3's played. Doc Rivers is a very strong Head Coach and will make adjustments and this game is not going to end in a blowout, but it does feel like the consistency Offensively is with the Boston Celtics and they can use the momentum of the win a couple of nights ago to continue producing strong Defensive intensity to win this one on the road and restore home court advantage.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 3 Pick: Two very different kinds of games have been played in this Western Conference Semi Final Series, but both have ended in wins for the Number 1 Seeded Denver Nuggets. They scored 125 points with both teams heating up from the field in Game 1, but the Denver Nuggets only needed 97 points to take a 2-0 lead in the Series as the Phoenix Suns struggled to get much production from anyone outside of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
Things feel like they have gotten much tougher for the Suns as they look to turn this Series around with the injury picked up by Chris Paul, one that is likely going to keep him out for the next three games at the very least.
It is very difficult to really see how the Suns can make the adjustments to begin to turn the Series, but the Denver Nuggets will be arriving in Phoenix expecting to have to weather a storm. Nikola Jokic may not have won the MVP award this week, but he continues to be a dominant force for the Nuggets and made it clear to the journalists asking questions that the Suns are not going to roll over in front of their own fans.
There is no doubt that the Denver Nuggets have the depth to really grind down and overwhelm the Phoenix Suns, while they will not be too bothered by the two regular season losses here. Both came in situations where the Nuggets were resting key players and they do think the bench is going to make a difference when it comes to the outcome of this Series.
You can never rule out the Phoenix Suns with Durant and Booker, but at least one and perhaps two players outside of their superstars have to step up.
The Suns certainly look a vulnerable favourite, but I am not going to play the line.
Instead I am going to look for the last couple of days to have been used by the teams to try and maintain the Defensive intensity that was shown in Game 2, especially from the Denver side of the court.
Phoenix continue to rely on their two point shooters rather than throwing up too many threes and that may help the Nuggets on the Defensive side of the court, while they made enough adjustments in Game 2 to restrict what Denver were able to do from outside the three point arc.
In recent history, the Under has been dominating Game 3's, while it is 12-2 in favour of the Under when one of the teams is 2-0 up in the Conference Semi Finals. Three of the last five between these teams has ended with the Under as the winner, while it would have been four from six if their first meeting had not gone into Overtime where 27 points were shared out to sail Over the line set.
With Chris Paul out, I do think the Suns are going to need to be strong Defensively to win this game and I will look for this Game 3 to finish under the total line set on Friday.
Saturday 6th May
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Two close games in this Conference Semi Final Series has seen the New York Knicks and Miami Heat head to South Florida for two games with a win apiece on the board.
The Miami Heat won Game 1 as the New York Knicks missed Julius Randle, but the injury bug affected the Heat in Game 2 with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines as the team were beaten and a returning Randle played a big part in the outcome.
The schedule is a little surprising with three full days of rest between Game 2 and Game 3 and that should benefit the Heat who are expecting to have Butler back in the line up. Nothing has been confirmed by Miami right now, but I think this is gamesmanship and most reports suggested Jimmy Butler felt he could have suited up for Game 2 and it was only a team decision to ensure he was able to rest his rolled ankle for five full days after Miami had already done their job in taking away home court advantage from New York.
It was clear that the absence of Butler meant the Heat made adjustments on the Offensive side of the court which led to attempting a lot more three pointers in Game 2 compared with Game 1. That also meant the Heat tried a lot fewer Free Throws and I do think the Knicks will be preparing to face Jimmy Butler and a more balanced Offensive approach from the home team.
The Knicks have had the edge on the boards in both games, but they had a bigger edge in Game 2 with Julius Randle back in the line up. This was expected to be the case as they would likely be able to pull Bam Adebayo away from the rim and the energy given to the Knicks by the Fourth Quarter Offensive boards proved to be a key in the final score.
New York were much more efficient shooting the three ball in Game 2 and that proved to be very important for the Knicks as they levelled this Series and look to make franchise history by winning a PlayOff Series after losing Game 1 at home.
With a few more days of recovery, Julius Randle should be stronger after an inefficient 25 points produced in Game 2- those points were important and his presence on the court does open things up for other players, especially Jalen Brunson and that proved the case in Game 2 as the Knicks won the game.
It does feel like New York could have the momentum from that victory and they look to be getting enough points in this one to want to get behind the road underdog. Teams off that Game 2 win have been strong in recent years in Game 3 of the NBA Conference Semi Final Series and games between the Heat and Knicks have been competitive all season.
Jimmy Butler's return makes the Heat dangerous, but I think the New York Knicks can continue some of their stronger three point shooting and that may be enough to stay within this line.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: We may only be two games into this Western Conference Semi Final Series, but it feels like those games have given us a very strong indication as to how the Series will develop.
The Los Angeles Lakers took Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors bounced back to win Game 2 and there was a marked difference in their success shooting the three ball in the game that was won and the game that was lost. While the Warriors had a decent 40% shooting day from the three point range in Game 1, they improved that to 50% in Game 2 and they hit the same number of three pointers (21) in each game, but with a much more efficient mark.
Adjustments made across the board helped the Warriors recover to level up the Series and the momentum may feel like it is with the defending Champions. Over the course of the season the Warriors struggled on the road, but they did win twice at the Sacramento Kings in the First Round, including a Game 7 win on the road, and I do think that should mean they are not intimidated by trying to regain home court over the two games to be played in the City of Angels.
The Lakers will now be tasked with changing things to get back on track and they will have been disappointed with the Game 2 effort, even though they have achieved what they would have wanted from their first two visits to Golden State.
Anthony Davis admitted he needs to be more assertive with his shot and that he had not performed as he would have liked in Game 2 and the Lakers will need Davis to be improved. LeBron James is going to produce his points, but he is not the player he once was, while the Golden State Warriors look like a stronger team as long as they can keep the likes of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry in a groove.
They did not need a big Curry game to level this Series, and that will offer further encouragement to the defending Champs.
After winning Game 2, I thought there was a chance that the Golden State Warriors would have been set as a narrow favourite to win on the road and so the points being offered to them look pretty appealing. Teams that have won Game 2 have a strong recent record in backing that up in Game 3 and the Boston Celtics continued that trend with their win and cover at the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday.
This is expected to be a tight and competitive game, but if the Warriors have found their rhythm from the field, I do think they will be tough to contain by the Lakers who are very much a team that looks to wear opponents down inside the three point arc. Ultimately a hot shooting Golden State team will have the edge and I think they can keep this close and potentially win outright as the underdog.
Monday 8th May
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: A really poor shooting day from the New York Knicks contributed to their defeat to fall into a 2-1 deficit in this Conference Semi Final Series. The Miami Heat didn't exactly light things up themselves, but they always had control of Game 3 and fully deserved the win and the lead in the Series.
Adjustments can be made from the Knicks and they have to believe they cannot be as poor shooting the ball as they were in Game 3.
They certainly need Julius Randle to have a bounce back effort and will be hoping Jalen Brunson hasn't aggravated his ankle issue. Those two players are key to the outcome of this game for the New York Knicks as well as the remainder of the Series, and they will have to lead the way for the role players.
It was a much more rounded effort from the Miami Heat to earn the victory with Jimmy Butler the stand out after his absence in Game 2. The three point shooting still isn't firing as well as they would like, but the Miami Heat are playing tough Defense and have found a way to get to the Free Throw line, which has proven to be important for them too.
Holding onto home court advantage is the ambition for the Heat, but teams leading in Conference Semi Final Series ahead of Game 4 have struggled to back those up against the spread. Two teams failed to cover in that situation on Sunday and those teams are now 9-21-1 against the spread and I have to believe we are going to see a much better Knicks team than the one that sleep-walked through the defeat on Saturday.
Picking up the intensity will not be easy, but the New York Knicks have shown they can bounce back from playing from behind once in this Series and I would be surprised if they are as poor as they were in Game 3. A slight improvement in the three point shooting will help make this one much closer and I do think the Knicks can be backed with the points.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: The blowout loss in Game 3 will have hurt, but the Golden State Warriors are very experienced and will recognise that it only means one more loss in the column. At the end of the day, winning at least one of the two games to be played in Los Angeles would bring this Series level and help the Warriors regain home court advantage, while once again making the defending Champions the favourites to win this Conference Semi Final Series.
While they will be searching for answers, the Los Angeles Lakers will be very confident having overcome a double digit deficit to completely overwhelm the Warriors from the middle of the Second Quarter.
A strong three point shooting day was the key for the Lakers, who have struggled from that range through the first couple of games in the Series. If they can back that up, the Lakers might feel they have all of the tools to win this Series especially with LeBron James and Anthony Davis able to produce efficient two point shooting to back up the successes from the distance.
The big question for the Lakers is whether they can expect the role players to hit their three pointers as well as they did in Game 3 and I think that is what Steve Kerr will be trying to pass across to his Golden State Warriors team. The reality is that it is unlikely that the Lakers will be as good from the three point arc again, while the Warriors are expected to be a lot better in all aspects of their Basketball.
The defending Champions have not been a very good road team this season, but I will have to remind you that they have won twice in Sacramento against the Kings in the First Round and I do think the Warriors will show why they have become one of the top teams in the NBA.
Los Angeles have been very good since the trade deadline, but they are the team leading in this Series and those teams have struggled against the spread in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Finals.
Like the New York Knicks, the Warriors have bounced back from going behind in this Series once already and I do think they can make one or two adjustments to perhaps win this one outright.
MY PICKS: 29/04 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
30/04 Miami Heat + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
01/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
01/05 Denver Nuggets - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/05 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/05 Los Angeles Lakers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
03/05 Boston Celtics - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
04/05 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/05 Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets Under 224.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
06/05 New York Knicks + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
06/05 Golden State Warriors + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/05 New York Knicks + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
08/05 Golden State Warriors + 3 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Semi Final Update: 8-5-1, + 2.22 Units (14 Units Staked, + 15.86% Yield)
First Round Final: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)
