Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (April 28th)

So I've made a very early decision to take a break from the Tennis Picks until at least the Rome Masters, but most likely until the French Open after a horrific first day at the Madrid Masters.

I think you have to make a decision like that when you have a day that is following two tournaments where I actually can't understand how some of the selections have lost.

Making this early decision means I can sit down and really look to find the answers, but I simply think some of the luck against the Picks has been absolutely horrific and that cannot be something I can tolerate.

At the moment it seems like I can back a favourite and they will simply come out and play like they have never see a Tennis court before, while any underdog I pick will produce a terrible day.

That was the case on Thursday and ultimately it is better to take a step back than push on knowing that there is a negativity around the approach that cannot be resolved by pushing through. Instead I have to make more adjustments and just prepare for the second Grand Slam of the season to get this season back on track having gone off the rails in Miami, Monte Carlo and Madrid.

When you see players have more Break Point chances and still struggle over the line or fail to capitalise, you know the approach isn't that far off, but I think I'm feeling frustrated with the process and having a day like I did on Thursday is simply not good enough.

As I have mentioned above, I can write off days like that where you know the Picks have been poor and they deserved to lose, but that was not the case in the opening selections and that only irritates, which will lead to bad decisions. So instead I will be watching the Tennis and making notes on players that can and cannot be trusted when the French Open rolls around at the end of May, assuming I will not be looking to dive back in when the Rome Masters is played early next month.

Good luck to those sticking with things, but I am focusing on a big French Open instead and then the grass court season and for now these pages will be sticking with the NBA PlayOffs.

Australian Open Tennis Outright Picks 2021 (February 8-21)

Nothing is back to normal just yet and we may still be some time away from that, but we have to appreciate the small things we are still able to enjoy and for sports fans I think there is a real thankfulness that we are able to have something to keep the days ticking along.

At some point we will be back with some normality in life, but I am grateful that the NFL was able to complete their season and are about to have a Super Bowl played in front of close to 30,000 fans, while you can only praise the Australian authorities for their success in containing the Covid-19 outbreak for much of the last year and being able to put on the Australian Open.

Back in March/April 2020 it was a really tough time for sports fans with all being shut down around the globe- without a doubt I appreciated all of the efforts to get those back up and running even if everyone didn't agree with doing that.

It is for selfish reasons- I honestly feel like sports has always given me a distraction in general life that can just help you shut out issues that are affecting you in your day to day and there really isn't a better drama being produced by Netflix/Sky/Amazon than the unpredictability of a live sporting event. For a long time I used to make a passing comment of 'I don't know what people who don't like sports do with their spare time' and back in March/April it became clear how important it can be.

In saying all that, I can understand the concerns a community like the one in Victoria, Australia would have been feeling ahead of the arrival of Tennis players from around the globe. While some of the more negative reactions from the players gained some traction in the press, the majority have been happy to comply with the rules and we are now close to having the first Grand Slam of the season being played.

With fans... And hopefully without any community transmission of Covid-19 cases.

There have been one or two worries, but for the main part it looks like Tennis Australia have got into a good position to run the tournament which is three weeks further into the calendar than we have come to expect. It does mean there has been some moving around of tournaments, but both Tours are hoping to be back on a more recognisable schedule when we reach the European clay court season in April, one that I very much missed last year.

I have not made more than the two Tennis Picks so far in 2021 and that was largely down to the way the tournaments have worked out- early events after the break between seasons have tended to be unpredictable anyway (I usually begin my main Picks from the Australian Open in each season) and this past week the tournaments being played in Melbourne came after many players had bee quarantined and who were getting back on the court.

My opinion is that this week offers us up a good indication of what kind of form players are coming in with, although for many it could be the first hard court action since the last Australian Open in January 2020 (when life felt extremely different).

The Australian Open can always spring up surprises because of the place it has on the calendar, but this year it feels a little more difficult to call. However the leading names on both Tours should be there or thereabouts in two weeks time and I am looking forward to having a little more consistent year watching the sport as the Tours move in a fashion we have become accustomed to seeing.

In this thread I am going to have a few thoughts about the two Singles draws and any Picks I may have from the Outright Markets.

Day 1 Picks should be out on Sunday with the tournament being played through the night for us in the United Kingdom (so beginning on Sunday night at the same time as the Super Bowl is being played) and Day 2 Picks should quickly follow with the First Round set to be played over those two days.

Men's Australian Open 2021

In normal years the Australian Open comes around at the start of a new calendar year and it does feel like we have had to wait quite a while since the last Grand Slam had been played.

With all of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 outbreak last year, the Tennis Tour placed two Grand Slams at the end of the season and so this is the third Slam played in five months.

Some things haven't changed though and that is namely the position Novak Djokovic sits in the draw- the Number 1 Seed is not only the favourite to win the Australian Open, but he is the defending Champion and will be looking for a first Grand Slam title since last January having come up short in New York and Paris.

Motivation is extremely high and Novak Djokovic has never disguised the fact that he wants to end his career with more Slams than his two rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. After winning in Melbourne last year it felt like a matter of time before Djokovic would at least match those two players, but the cancellation of Wimbledon and his poor decision which led to a Disqualification at the US Open have proved costly and even more so after losing the French Open Final to Nadal in a one-sided Final.

Some have suggested that Djokovic has been given a tough draw this year, but I think he looks a relatively safe bet to reach the Fourth Round at an event he has won eight times including in each of the last two seasons. At that stage there is a prospective dark horse standing in his way in the form of Stan Wawrinka or Milos Raonic, but you would consider Djokovic a strong favourite if at his best with those two (a former Champion and a former Semi Finalist) not producing the same type of consistency as the World Number 1.

The most realistic threat in the Quarter has to be Alexander Zverev who reached the US Open Final in 2020. However we have seen Zverev falter early in Grand Slams in the past and he has been beaten by Novak Djokovic twice in the last three months including at the ATP Cup being played in the week prior to the Australian Open so it would be a surprise if the defending Champion does not reach the final four.

A loaded Second Quarter in the draw has former Grand Slam Champions and Grand Slam Finalists littered through it, while a number of younger players are also looking to make a breakthrough on the Tour.

Dominic Thiem is the top Seed in the section and he will be plenty confident having won the US Open a few months ago in the same year he reached the Australian Open Final and pushed Djokovic all the way. The Austrian has had plenty of time to get over his exploits at the US Open and he looks mentally tough enough to deal with the additional pressures which come after winning a maiden Slam title and joining an elite list of players.

I am a fan of Thiem and his development on the hard courts means he is a threat to win three of the four Grand Slams that are played every season.

However this is a tough section as I mentioned already and I am also extremely excited about the possibility of a Third Round clash between Thiem and the enigmatic home favourite Nick Kyrgios. The lack of competitive tennis over the last several months has to be a concern for Kyrgios fans, but the talent is not to be disputed and I think he will be highly motivated to have a strong run in Melbourne over the next fortnight which makes him dangerous.

There are a number of Seeds in this section who will have felt they could have a serious run in the tournament if they had been given solid draws, but Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta and Denis Shapovalov are no sure things to get out of the First Round let alone go deep into the second week.

Those three players face Marin Cilic (a former US Open Champion), Kei Nishikori (a former US Open Runner Up) and Jannick Sinner (an up and coming super talent on the Tour) in the First Round. The two former players mentioned are not the forces they were as they try and recover some form and fitness, but the winner of the Shapovalov-Sinner match might actually end up being the Quarter Final opponent for what is most likely to be Dominic Thiem.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a former US Open Quarter Finalist and has shown he can play on all surfaces and Felix Auger-Aliassime is another big talent who will feel they can't be dismissed, but the bottom half of the Second Quarter looks highly competitive. That could mean whoever gets through to the Quarter Final is perhaps battle fatigued, especially after quarantine rules before the tournament, and Dominic Thiem does look the player most likely to make his mark on the form displayed over the last thirteen months.

I have to admit I am a big fan of the two Russian players that are the leading names in the Third Quarter of the draw- the top two Seeds in the section are Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev and I think the friends could be set for a Quarter Final match up in a few days time.

The main threats to oppose each player look to be Robert Bautista Agut and Filip Krajinovic who are solid hard court players that can bridge the gap to the very best when at their best.

Roberto Bautista Agut is an all court player who has reached the Fourth Round at every Slam on the Tour while he was a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open in 2019. It will be interesting to see how he deals with what is almost certainly going to be a negative reaction after a video was leaked of him complaining about quarantine conditions, but he can be solid enough to beat opponents who are perhaps not finding their best form.

His performances at the ATP Cup have been nothing to write home about though, while Rublev and Medvedev look to be in very good form based on their appearances in that event so far.

Filip Krajinovic is playing the best tennis of his career over the last couple of seasons, but he has yet to make an impact on at the Grand Slam level that he would have liked and so it is hard to look beyond Rublev and Medvedev for the Semi Final spot out of this Quarter.

If we do get to that Quarter Final, Daniil Medvedev will be a clear favourite having won his four previous matches against Andrey Rublev and in largely dominant fashion. He is the top Seed in the section and the player most likely to come out of this Quarter of the draw too.

At the start of the year you would have had many looking to back Rafael Nadal to win his second Australian Open and become the first men's player in the Open Era to win each of the Grand Slams at least twice. That would only add to what is already a wonderful legacy in the sport and might have underlined his status as the Greatest Of All Time, but a back injury over the last week has meant the Spaniard has not taken part in the ATP Cup as expected.

There is an opportunity for Rafael Nadal to work his way into the Australian Open assuming he is ready to go in the First Round, and I am not sure he will be challenged too much even if not at 100% until he gets through to the Quarter Final.

Before that stage I would expect Rafael Nadal to beat Laslo Djere, Michael Mmoh, Daniel Evans and Alex De Minaur and that would then make the 2009 Champion a dangerous prospect for any potential Quarter Final opponent.

The leading contender to do that has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas who reached the Semi Final in 2019, although he has not reached the Fourth Round of any hard court Grand Slam since then. There will be a huge amount of support for Tsitsipas, but his path through to the Quarter Final looks a lot more haphazard than Nadal's, while there are two big hitting threats that will feel they have the tools to beat the Greek star.

Both Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini are 24 years old, and look to be improving on the Tour. The former has perhaps not kicked on as much as he would have liked and Khachanov has not been beyond the Third Round at either the Australian Open or the US Open, but Matteo Berrettini has shown considerable form at the ATP Cup and reached the Semi Final at the 2019 US Open.

His style could be very dangerous if finding his best form and I do think the Italian has every chance of upsetting the odds through the draw. Both of his previous defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas came at a time when Matteo Berrettini was not playing as well as he is now and they were close matches anyway.

The First Round match against Kevin Anderson is a tough one on paper and just reduces some of the enthusiasm for Matteo Berrettini, but if he is able to work his way through that match I do think the draw could open up for him. He has won all three previous matches against Karen Khachanov and I do think Berrettini could be a tough player to stop if he builds his confidence through the draw.

At his best you would have to favour Rafael Nadal, but the doubts about his injury and how ready he is to compete at 100% might just leave it open for a surprise Semi Finalist in Matteo Berrettini.

I expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to have his backers, but he is just as likely to have an early exit in the tournament as he is in reaching the business end of the week. He has been beaten in the first week in five of the last eight Grand Slams he has played and Tsitsipas can't take anything for granted with the way the draw has shaped up for him which could leave the door open for the Number 9 Seed to have the most 'surprising' run in the Men's tournament.

Since Rafael Nadal won the Australian Open in 2009, only three men have won the title in Melbourne and one of those won't be playing this year.

Roger Federer is not in Australia, while his compatriot Stan Wawrinka is not the player he was and it would arguably be a much bigger surprise than when he won his first Grand Slam title if he was to do it again in 2021.

That leaves World Number 1 Novak Djokovic who has won the title eight times here before and looks set to make it nine in a row. He is still the top hard court player in the world and while I think the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev are getting closer, Novak Djokovic is the man to beat with Rafael Nadal struggling.

Novak Djokovic has won the last two Australian Open titles and regularly is given plenty of support in Melbourne where the conditions and playing surface seem almost perfect for him.

Dominic Thiem is a likely Semi Final opponent for Djokovic, who could have to beat the two names mentioned to win the title here, and the US Open Champion pushed the World Number 1 to five sets in the Final here last year. However that is the latest setback against Novak Djokovic on a hard court and even the fact he has won three of the last four against this opponent may not be enough for Dominic Thiem to get the better of him here.

I still think the Austrian is good enough to get out of his Quarter of the draw having reached the Final of both hard court Grand Slam events last season and the path through to the Semi Final looks to have worked for him.

After helping Russia win the ATP Cup, I do think Daniil Medvedev could be ready to go all the way at the Australian Open and win a maiden Grand Slam title. The expected faster conditions shouldn't bother him too much having had success on the relatively quick New York City and I expect to see Medvedev at the business end of the week. He should be able to get through the Third Quarter of the draw and a small interest on Matteo Berrettini to win the Fourth Quarter may be warranted at the prices on offer.

I have to say that Rafael Nadal looks like he is feeling strong even though he pulled out of the warm up events with a back issue, but he has regularly had issues in Melbourne since winning the title in 2009 and Matteo Berrettini's form in the ATP Cup shows an improving player that may be ready to reach another hard court Grand Slam Semi Final after doing the same at the US Open.

Women's Australian Open 2021

The decision to expand the amount of results being considered when putting the World Rankings together is the reason Ashleigh Barty will be going into her home Grand Slam as the World Number 1 and top Seed.

With the pandemic raging and travel being an issue, Ashleigh Barty decided to skip the Tour after the tournament in Doha in February and she does believe it was a decision that was the right one for her. The lack of competitive tennis might be problematic, but Barty has played well in the warm up tournament for the Australian Open and she will be comfortable in Melbourne having reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final in the last two years in this tournament.

In between those runs Ashleigh Barty has won the French Open and there will be a confidence that this is a tournament that can be won with the Woman's Tour remaining wide open at the very top. Like many of the Quarters in the draw, there seem to be dangers lurking around every corner and I do think Barty is not going to be able to get by if her tennis is less than close to at its very best which is why her run in the warm up tournaments have been so encouraging.

The biggest threats may come from fellow Seeds Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova and both are former Semi Finalists in Melbourne. However the two players can be a little inconsistent and both have some potentially difficult early matches that could see them exit before Ashleigh Barty has to face them anyway.

Even with the lack of competitive tennis over the last several months, I think Ashleigh Barty has been given an opportunity to go very deep into the Australian Open once again.

The Second Quarter looks like it could be a lot of fun at the Australian Open with defending Champion Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Azarenka, Johanna Konta and Maria Sakkari all likely to enter the tournament and feel like they could go all the way.

Sofia Kenin reached the French Open Final last year too and she will be feeling like her effort will always reward her, while Victoria Azarenka has won the Australian Open twice before. The Belarusian has actually missed three of the last four tournaments played in Melbourne and was beaten in the First Round in the other, but Azarenka reached the US Open Final in 2020 and looked to be back to close to her best in New York.

Elina Svitolina has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slams she has played, but this is a player that is hard to trust to win these big tournaments. There is a clear panic in her play when she has gotten close to winning a Grand Slam and I think that is likely to let her down at some point in this tournament too.

I have to admit I have been surprised by the development of Maria Sakkari, but she still looks short of some levels to win a major like this one and Johanna Konta has not been past the Second Round in the last three Australian Open tournaments since reaching back to back Quarter Finals here.

This illustrates that while these players are likely to provide one of the Semi Finalists, it is hard to really trust any of them with real confidence.

A dark horse like Kaia Kanepi and Jennifer Brady might be able to break through with the right results around them, but an open Quarter looks like being a fun one to watch rather than selecting which player is capable of winning five matches to earn a Semi Final spot.

Naomi Osaka heads up the Third Quarter and, barring a loss of focus or injury, I think this is the player that will competing for Grand Slam titles on a regular basis. The WTA Tour actually has some extremely talented youngsters that are breaking through all the time, but Naomi Osaka is a three time Grand Slam Champion at 23 years old and with the development of sports science she is capable of quadrupling that total before she calls time on her career.

Yes, I am extremely high on Osaka and her capabilities on a tennis court.

She has won the US Open twice already and is the defending Champion there, while the other Grand Slam title came in Melbourne. It is clear that Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts, but my one concern for this player is that she has played in seventeen Grand Slams and only reached the second week five times. Fair enough it is some conversion rate to produce three titles from those five appearances in the second week of a Grand Slam, but you do have to say that Naomi Osaka is potentially vulnerable early in any Slam she plays in.

And this year Naomi Osaka has some very awkward potential matches before she gets into the Fourth Round which makes it hard to back her. It begins immediately in the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and an early exit will only offer real encouragement to some of the other players in this Quarter of the draw.

The one that looks to stand out is Petra Kvitova who has played her best tennis at the Australian Open in the last two seasons with a Final and a Quarter Final run in 2019 and 2020. Last year she also reached the French Open Semi Final as the Czech lefty looks to add to the two Wimbledon titles she has won and I think a bit more fortune could have led to a title for Petra Kvitova.

I do think Petra Kvitova can work her way through the draw and she is certainly capable of reaching another Semi Final at this tournament.

A player like Bianca Andreescu will be competing for Grand Slam titles throughout her career as long as she stays healthy, but the long lay off with an injury and the precautionary withdrawal from the warm up events may leave her short. Garbine Muguruza is also in this section of the draw and reached the Final of the Australian Open last year, but the Spaniard is someone who blows hot and cold which makes it hard to really believe in her.

The performances in the warm up events being played ahead of the Australian Open are encouraging, but Garbine Muguruza has only reached the second week in four of the last eleven Grand Slam events she has played.

Her draw doesn't look the worst, but Angelique Kerber could be waiting in the Third Round and I do feel that Petra Kvitova may be in the best position to take advantage of the way the section has panned out.

There are going to be plenty of people tuning into the Australian Open and wondering if this is the tournament in which Serena Williams finally levels the record set by Margaret Court for most Grand Slam Singles titles won. When she won here in Melbourne in 2017 it seemed inevitable that not only would Williams level the record, but push past it, although at the time no one knew that she was playing while pregnant with her first child.

It meant taking some time off from the Tour, but Serena Williams returned in May 2018 and she has reached four Grand Slam Finals since then, although fallen short of winning another title each time.

The window is closing now with some talented younger, hungry players on the Tour who are no longer intimidated by the American former World Number 1. A withdrawal in the warm up event for the Australian Open is a slight concern for Serena who admitted she would not have played in Melbourne if the tournament had not been delayed, but I think the draw looks decent enough to get through the early Rounds.

Laura Siegemund is a battler and could cause one or two problems in the First Round, but the bigger challenges are down the line with the expectation that Serena Williams will have to deal with a big hitting, in form Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round.

Iga Swiatek, the French Open Champion, and Elena Rybakina are two other young players in this Quarter of the draw who will feel they are capable enough on the hard courts to go very far in the first Grand Slam of the 2021 tournament. And all of this is without mentioning the Number 2 Seeded Simona Halep who has played in two Quarter Finals, a Semi Final and a Final in the Australian Open.

I do think both Swiatek and Halep are perhaps better suited to the hard courts here rather than the ones used at the US Open and both are amongst the leading contenders to win the French Open in May. Both players will feel they can challenge anyone they face in the tournament, while Elena Rybakina is developing at a rapid rate and a potential Winner here if finding her best form.

With Rybakina it feels like the draw could have been better as the likes of Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep could blunt some of her attacking prowess on this kind of hard court, but she will learn from the experience and it should stand her in good stead going forward.

The same could be said for Aryna Sabalenka who is trying to show more patience rather than hitting the ball harder and harder until she breaks through someone's defences. It can't always work at the top, top level to not have other paces to your game, but I do think she is learning and it might be another year before the Belarusian is able to challenge for a Grand Slam title.

Serena Williams should have a good run here, but I do think one of those players mentioned will be able to get the better of her in this Quarter. If Aryna Sabalenka can hold herself together between the ears she is a real threat, while Simona Halep will be confident having had some considerable successes in Melbourne in the past.

I am a big fan of Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina too, but I think both may cause problems but ultimately find someone a little better than them on the day.

The last time Australia were able to celebrate a home winner of the Women's tournament was over forty years ago, but 2021 could see that all change.

While it is hard to ignore the long lay off Ashleigh Barty has had from the Tour, her performances this past week in the lead up to the Australian Open and the way the draw has worked out makes the World Number 1 my favourite to win the tournament this week.

I think Barty is a very good player, and she has improved her performance in the Australian Open in each of the last three seasons while going down to a very narrow defeat to eventual Champion Sofia Kenin in the Semi Final in January 2020. This is a player who left the Tennis Tour to take up professional cricket and then returned to eventually reach the top of the mountain so even the effective year off from the Tour is not enough for me to think the home favourite is going to be adversely affected here.

Ashleigh Barty looks to have been placed in a relatively decent portion of the draw and I think she can pick up some momentum in each passing Round to go on and win her second Grand Slam title.

Whoever comes out of the Second Quarter will be a danger, while I also think Petra Kvitova looks a big price if she is able to find her way through the early Rounds. She could benefit from the likes of Naomi Osaka and Garbine Muguruza potentially not even making it to a Quarter Final against her and Petra Kvitova has reached the Final and the Quarter Final in the last two years in Melbourne.

Her head to head with Muguruza is encouraging, while both defeats to Naomi Osaka could easily have gone Petra Kvitova's way and I think she can have a good run here.

The Czech lefty has fallen towards the business end of this Grand Slam in the last couple of years, but Petra Kvitova looks a big price to win the Third Quarter of the draw.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Outright @ 2.37 Sky Bet (4 Units)

Dominic Thiem to Win Second Quarter @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev to Win Third Quarter @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini to Win Fourth Quarter @ 13.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)

Ashleigh Barty to Win First Quarter @ 3.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova to Win Third Quarter @ 8.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

US Open Tennis Outright Picks and Preview 2020 (August 31-September 13)

Well this feels a little strange...

After several months I am actually writing a Tennis post as what is usually the final Grand Slam of the season is set to go in New York City inside a bubble.

For a long time I honestly did feel this tournament would have to be cancelled as the likes of the French Open and Wimbledon were postponed/cancelled with the pandemic raging around the world particularly disruptive to a sport like this one.

It is one thing asking individuals from a single country to be able to get their sports back underway, but another all together when you think of the global reach of Tennis and having to see players travel in from around the world into each event.

The USTA decided the best way to manage things was to move the Cincinnati Masters inside the bubble created in New York City which means the players involved at the US Open will have been in managed sites for up to three weeks. So far it has largely been a success even if fans being absent is something that is very unfamiliar to many players, while the tournament is being played and completed a couple of weeks before the postponed French Open is set to begin.

That has led to some players deciding they will skip this event and wait for the European clay court events to be played next month, while other players have decided they don't feel safe enough or happy enough to be restricted in a bubble and have also withdrawn.

The US Open is thus without the two defending Champions, while the top of the Women's draw looks wide open with six of the current top ten absent over the next two weeks. Serena Williams is playing as she looks to tie Margaret Court's record of 24 Grand Slam Singles titles, but the veteran has not played well in events leading into this one which will encourage a number of players to believe they have what it takes to take home the title.

Rafael Nadal's absence certainly gives Novak Djokovic a strong chance to win an 18th Grand Slam title as he looks to maintain his unbeaten 2020 (at the time of writing he is in the 'Cincinnati' Semi Final).

Some have spoken about the need to have an asterisk by the tournament, but I tend to lean away from that knowing injuries and other factors are always in play whenever a Slam comes around.

What is harder to work out is how much the long lay offs for many players will have affected their play, while the absence of fans might work to the advantage of some more than others. It is just a part of dealing with a new situation as the Tennis Tour looks to put on some big events before the end of the year despite the Coronavirus crisis showing little sign of abating just yet.

For many players the sport had to return to start making a living again, but standards have to be maintained to keep people safe during a difficult moment of time and so far the US Open has to be commended for being able to do that.


It has been a while like I said, but I will be back making Tennis Picks from this Grand Slam and hopefully that will continue through the remainder of the season. It has a similar feel to January when I tend to have a watching brief leading into the Australian Open as I look to judge how players are feeling, but we do have some recent results on the board in non-exhibition events with the Cincinnati Masters concluded and the WTA running a couple of other tournaments this past month too.

Assuming the calendar will be able to run smoothly between now and December, which is a huge assumption to say the least, there will be some clay events leading into the French Open during the month of September.

We should then have some indoor events later in the year before the Tour Finals for both the ATP and WTA and hopefully it will mean being able to put some positive results on the board to follow from last season.

The US Open has traditionally been the Grand Slam I have had most difficulty in picking because players tend to be pretty jaded by this time of the season, and the New York weather can be difficult to negotiate, but this time there should be a fresher mindset.

Emotionally it can be difficult being in a bubble as the NBA players have spoken about already, but the Tennis players have not been inside nearly as long as the NBA ones have. It is also a tournament format which means the bubble will see half the field leave by the end of the first week and that should allow players to focus and not feel the monotony of the bubble as much as the NBA players have too.


In this post I will have my Outright Preview and any Picks I can find before the US Open begins on Monday. I am hopeful by Sunday evening to have the Day 1 selections available to view, while I am also going to have a wider view of the day's schedule on my Instagram Story on a day by day basis too.

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Onto the breakdown of the 2020 US Open.

US Open Men's Draw 2020

Rafael Nadal won the US Open twelve months ago in a stunning Final after being pushed the distance by Daniil Medvedev who really announced himself as a potential Grand Slam Champion to the wider population with a strong tournament.

The Spaniard might have been quite confident he could win a 20th Slam title and join Roger Federer with the most in the history of Men's Tennis, but he has decided to stay in Europe stating he didn't feel he could produce his best in the current climate in New York City. I would be surprised if Rafael Nadal is not the favourite to win in Paris yet again when the French Open is played, but his absence along with Roger Federer's seems to open the door for the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic.

Things have not really gone as planned for Novak Djokovic over the last several months with some concerning views entering the public domain- each to their own when it comes to beliefs, but I always think it is dangerous when someone in an influential position perhaps leans towards the more controversial views, especially if they want to speak freely about them.

It became a little worse for Djokovic from a PR perspective when his exhibition tournament saw the players disregard safety protocols and subsequently many of them came down with positive tests for Covid-19.

He has taken something of a battering from his peers as well as fans, but Novak Djokovic could use that to fuel his desire to finish his career with the most Singles Grand Slam titles won by a male player. At this point I wouldn't rule Djokovic out from hitting Margaret Court's record number overall, and the Serb does go into this tournament as a firm favourite after a good showing in the warm up event also being played in New York.

Ignore anything outside of his ability on the court and I do think Novak Djokovic is largely 'draw proof' meaning he will always feel he can get to the business end of any Slam being played no matter who is placed in front of him in the early Rounds.

Without Qualifiers this time around, the draw was always going to be potentially difficult, but I can't see Djokovic having any real problems getting into the second week of the event. Kyle Edmund is a potential threat in the Second Round, but he has not really reached his top level often enough to believe that to be a realistic case, while John Isner is always awkward thanks to the serve.

However it honestly feels like only an injury can prevent Novak Djokovic from winning the First Quarter of the draw and at that point it would be very difficult to beat a player who has not lost a match in 2020 and already added the Australian Open to his growing collection of Grand Slams.

David Goffin, Filip Krajinovic and Denis Shapovalov may all have something to say, but I don't believe Novak Djokovic could have asked for much more from the draw and I do think he will make up one of the Semi Finalists.

The Second Quarter of the draw does feel a little more open with the two top Seeds in the section being Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev- both are clearly quality players, but both are also quite vulnerable at times with some limitations to their tennis showing up when it comes to the best of five Grand Slam setting.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Cincinnati Semi Final at the time of writing so is clearly feeling confident, but I have long said he needs to improve the return game if he is going to win a Grand Slam. At some point I do feel that will let him down, but I do feel this draw gives him the chance to build momentum into the tournament.

He is clearly enjoying the current conditions in New York, but his two previous US Open appearances have ended in the Second Round and the First Round. That has to be a concern for those potentially backing him here, but I do think the chance to get through the nervy first couple of Rounds against opponent's Tsitsipas should be seeing off comfortably enough makes him the player to beat in the section.

Borna Coric is a potentially very difficult Third Round opponent, but I like the way things have worked out for Stefanos Tsitsipas.

I do think the Greek star will be the player to beat in the section because I don't trust Alexander Zverev to trust his own second serve for long enough to earn his path through the draw. Even if he does, the German has a poor head to head record against Stefanos Tsitsipas and his path looks fraught with more danger.

Straight away Zverev has to face a former US Open Finalist in Kevin Anderson who has a serve that can help him through matches, although the long lay off might have been more difficult for a player who has been dealing with injuries over the last eighteen months.

Twice Quarter Finalist in New York, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, is another potentially awkward opponent for Alexander Zverev before he gets to the Quarter Final here and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas can pick someone off in that Round.

I am assuming things will be more straight-forward for Tsitsipas than any opponent he meets in the Quarter Final and he has shown he might be happier in New York without the crowds inside the venue in Flushing Meadows. At odds against I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas could be worth backing to reach his second Grand Slam Semi Final over the next few days.

The standout name in the Third Quarter of the US Open Men's draw is Daniil Medvedev and he will be a popular choice as someone who can go one better than last year and win his first Grand Slam here. The Russian has long looked like a player with all the tools to be successful at this level and I do think he is more than capable of having another strong run in New York.

One aspect that will likely need to be improved is making sure he completes his wins in a little more routine manner so Medvedev is not expending wasted energy early in tournaments. It might be part of the reason that Daniil Medvedev has not been beyond the Fourth Round in any other Grand Slam barring the 2019 US Open.

That record is a slight concern with players like Grigor Dimitrov and Guido Pella in Medvedev's path before he can get into a Quarter Final- both can be dangerous on their day although it does have to be said that neither has really been consistent enough to think they would be able to beat Daniil Medvedev at his best.

The bigger threats in this Quarter of the draw may come from Matteo Berrettini and Andrey Rublev who have reached the Semi Final and Quarter Final respectively at the US Open in the past. Both are improving players and are in the top 20 of the World Rankings and they do look to be on a collision course in the Fourth Round of this year's tournament.

I can see both Berrettini and Rublev being very happy with the way the draw has shaped up before the Fourth Round, although there is a feeling that if they are slightly off their best that they could be vulnerable to an upset too. Andrey Rublev meets Jeremy Chardy in the First Round and the Frenchman can be someone who can be very difficult to knock off on a hard court, while Ugo Humbert is a potentially awkward Second Round opponent for Matteo Berrettini.

With that in mind I do think Daniil Medvedev is the player most likely to come out of this section in what looks to be a 'routine' tournament to this point. All three of the favourites to come out of the sections look good to complete their paths through to the Semi Final, but once again it does have to be said that Medvedev at odds against to win the section is an appealing price.

As I have said, it feels like the favourites may all have too much for their rivals and come out of the first three Quarters of the Men's US Open draw, but the Fourth Quarter looks wide open.

Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic have both made at least the Semi Final in the warm up event being played in Flushing Meadows last week, Marin Cilic is a former US Open Champion, Dominic Thiem is the World Number 3 and reached the Final on the hard courts at the Australian Open earlier this year, while Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov both have the big games suited to this surface.

And that is all without adding multiple time Grand Slam Champion Andy Murray to the list too.

It is Dominic Thiem who will go into the tournament as the favourite to reach the Semi Final, but I can make a big case for a number of those names mentioned.

Richard Gasquet, Tennys Sandgren and Sam Querrey are other dangerous names in this Quarter of the draw and it is without a doubt the most loaded of the four at the 2020 US Open.

I am writing this preview at a time when the Cincinnati Semi Final matches are being played and the potential Third Round match between Bautista Agut and Raonic could be a huge one. The latter has made the Final in the warm up event to the US Open and the former was good enough to take at least a set from Novak Djokovic which means both men go into the tournament in wonderful form and full of confidence.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise if either was to force their way into the Semi Final, but there is some concern the two players could force the winning one to leave something on the court. A long best of five set match would make it difficult with plenty of difficult challenges all around and picking someone to come out of this Quarter is anything but easy.

Milos Raonic may appeal the most, but he has already had a long week and injuries have yet to be fully behind him.


Once you get to the Semi Final, if things have gone as expected above you would make Novak Djokovic a huge favourite with the experience he has.

I do think Daniil Medvedev and Milos Raonic are interesting players to potentially get behind here too, while it does have to be said that the US Open has thrown up a few more different names as Champions than the other three Grand Slams in this era.

However four of the last five Champions have been either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal and I do think the absence of his biggest rivals will only help the World Number 1 move up to holding 18 Grand Slam titles.

Novak Djokovic looks to be on the weaker side of the draw which should mean he is fresh by the end of the tournament and it feels like he is playing well enough behind serve and return to end the US Open with another title to his name.

The feeling is that the Serb will be able to build up to speed where other rivals might have to have a few more tough matches that will sap some of the energy when we get down to the business end of the tournament. That might be just another factor in helping Novak Djokovic win another Grand Slam and add to the Australian Open crown picked up in what feels like a different world back in January.


The World Number 1 is the main selection from the tournament and I do think Novak Djokovic is only really going to be stopped if he suffers an injury to be truthful.

I will also back Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev to both make the Semi Final as they win the Second and Third Quarters respectively.

Both of those younger players are capable of getting the better of what looks like promising sections, although the inconsistencies at times can make them vulnerable to any opponent who hits some form.

Regardless of that feeling, I do think Tsitsipas and Medvedev are good enough to make their way to the business end of a Grand Slam again, although both may come up short when faced with Novak Djokovic.

US Open Women's Draw 2020

The run to the Final and the success of Bianca Andreescu was wonderful to watch twelve months ago, but it has been a difficult year for the Canadian since then with injuries meaning very little tennis has been played.

The defending Champion will miss the US Open over the next couple of weeks and that means six of the current top ten of the WTA are not going to be involved in the tournament. Over the last couple of years the Women's Grand Slam events have been wide open anyway, but it feels just as difficult picking a winner this time as it has been previously.

It says something that the Number 1 Seed Karolina Pliskova has never won a Grand Slam before, although her best performances have come at the US Open in the past. That may offer her some encouragement as she gets set to begin this tournament, although there is no doubt that the draw could have been kinder for the player from the Czech Republic.

Caroline Garcia and Jennifer Brady are two players that could make up the Second Round and Third Round opponents for Pliskova and neither will be an easy out.

In usual circumstances you may think Angelique Kerber could be a dark horse in the section, but the German has not played much competitive tennis for months and there are some other dangerous floaters in this Quarter of the draw.

Alison Riske, Marketa Vondrousova and Petra Martic are all capable of having a strong run here, although the middle of those three names is perhaps the least suited to the kind of conditions we are expecting to see in Flushing Meadows over the next two weeks.

With a gun to the head I might look at someone like Martic to come through the section, but this is one of the difficulties in picking through the Women's draw with so many uncertainties about the top names. Jennifer Brady is another that could find some positive momentum behind her, but it is certainly a section of the draw where the case can be made for a number of the players.


Naomi Osaka has reached the Final of the event being played on the grounds ahead of the US Open and she will go into this Grand Slam as the joint-favourite to win the tournament. The World Number 10 has been inconsistent, but she has won multiple Slams already and both of those have come on the hard courts here in New York City and in Melbourne.

Her form looks good and Osaka might be motivated further in her position as a role model having made the big decision to force her Semi Final to be postponed last week as she protested the social injustices taking place in the United States.

Some may think that is going to negatively affect a player who has not always been comfortable in the limelight, but Naomi Osaka has grown in the last two years and I do think she is a very dangerous player in this draw.

The draw has not been as kind as it could have been with some dangerous opponents likely to come up very early for Osaka- Camila Giorgi is a potential Second Round opponent and Cori Gauff a potential Third Round opponent which means Naomi Osaka is going to have to find her best form very early on in this tournament.

Other players in this Quarter who will feel the conditions will suit them are Petra Kvitova and Elena Rybakina and I really like the latter of those names. Before the postponement of the Tour Elena Rybakina looked like an improving, dangeorus player and even the early loss last week is not something that should have affected the confidence too much.

However, the Rybakina game is still a little raw at the moment and going for your shots as much as she does means there is always a risk of making too many errors when things are not going as smoothly as they can. That leaves her vulnerable to an upset on a poor day at the office and there are some tough matches in front of Rybakina.

I just hope we get through to the potential Fourth Round match between Elena Rybakina and Petra Kvitova which would be brilliant to watch.


The US Open regularly features some top home hopes and the Third Quarter of the Women's draw has put two former Champions and a former Finalist from the United States together in a small section.

Madison Keys, Serena Williams and Sloane Stephens are all set to go in this Grand Slam, although it is very hard to make a serious case for Stephens who has not really recaptured the magic that took her to the US Open title in 2017.

Both Madison Keys and Serena Williams will have more confidence they can have another deep run in New York City and the latter goes into the tournament as the joint-favourite. However it is hard to be able to back Williams in her current form and the fact that she has just fallen apart at the latter end of a number of Grand Slams with the Margaret Court record number of Singles Slams being in sight.

The absence of so many of the top names from the WTA Tour will help Serena, but she was beaten relatively early in both warm up events played so far and has looked far from her best. Serena Williams does get the chance to warm up in this tournament, but there are some very tough opponents awaiting her down the stretch with Sloane Stephens a potential Third Round opponent and Maria Sakkari or Amanda Anisimova potentially standing in the American's way in the Fourth Round.

Maria Sakkari in particular could be a threat having beaten Serena Williams on these grounds last week and it certainly lessens the appeal of the latter winning the tournament even at a relatively big price.

Instead it could be Madison Keys who takes advantage of the bottom half of this Quarter- she has reached the Fourth Round in five consecutive US Opens and Madison Keys has made the Semi Final and the Final in that time too.

She was beaten early last week, but Keys looks to have been given as kind a draw as you could ask for with the biggest threats likely to come from either Donna Vekic or Garbine Muguruza. Madison Keys can't face either before the Fourth Round and there are already doubts about Muguruza who was close to withdrawing from the tournament before deciding to attend the New York City bubble.

Madison Keys has a strong record against Garbine Muguruza and also has a winning record against Donna Vekic and I think she is the value in this Third Quarter of the draw.

The one concern is that Madison Keys has never beaten Serena Williams, but she could benefit if the 23 time Grand Slam Champion is Knocked Out early in the tournament.


As soon as you pop up the prices for a winner of the Fourth Quarter of the Women's tournament you can see how competitive this section of the draw is going to be.

We have Sofia Kenin, the Australian Open Champion playing back at home.

Johanna Konta, a player who has reached the Quarter Final at every Grand Slam and the Semi Final at the other three outside of the US Open. She also reached the Semi Final at the tournament played on these grounds last week.

Elise Mertens, a Semi Finalist last week and a former Semi Finalist at the Australian Open and Quarter Finalist here at the US Open.

Aryna Sabalenka has long been considered someone capable of making an impact at this level although her form has dropped off from where she was nineteen months ago.

Victoria Azarenka has not rediscovered her form prior to the injury and pregnancy lay offs from the Tour, but she is a two time US Open Finalist and also reached the Final in the warm up event played here in the lead up to the 2020 US Open.

There are other names in this Quarter who could make things very difficult for the eventual Semi Finalist, but all of those mentioned are at single digit prices starting at 5-1.

My lean is towards Elise Mertens who was in fine form last week and has shown more consistency than Victoria Azarenka, while Johanna Konta is someone who has reached Semi Finals at the other Grand Slam events. All three looked good here already and I think the British player may be the best choice, but this Quarter is a huge minefield with dangers lurking around every corner.


It has long been a very difficult task to pick a winner in the Women's Grand Slam events being played. Backing that up is the fact we have eleven different names winning Grand Slams from the last thirteen that have been played with only Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka winning twice in that time.

The Romanian is not in New York City this week, but Naomi Osaka is and is looking in good form to win a second title at the US Open.

However she is in a difficult portion of the draw too and the expectation of being a favourite is perhaps something that Osaka is not always the best at dealing with. There is extra attention on her having moved to the forefront of protesting social injustices from the Tennis world and I do think it could lead to an upset somewhere along the line.

In terms of a potential new winner you do have to look at the likes of Madison Keys, Johanna Konta and Elise Mertens.

The one that appeals the most is Madison Keys even though she is in the same section of the draw as Serena Williams- instead of backing her to win the tournament, I am going to have a small interest on Keys winning the Third Quarter of the draw at a big enough price and that is my sole outright selection from the Women's tournament.

Once again this should be a fun tournament to watch as it develops, but there are a number of names who will feel there is an opportunity to win a Slam in front of them.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic to Win @ 1.80 Paddy Power (5 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas to Win Second Quarter @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev to Win Third Quarter @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Madison Keys to Win Third Quarter @ 7.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Australian Open Tennis Outright Picks and Preview 2020 (January 20-February 2)

The 2020 Tennis season has already begun with a new tournament, the ATP Cup, taking most of the headlines over the first two weeks of the season.

I am still not convinced about the organisers having a very similar tournament to the new look Davis Cup being played just six weeks apart, but it seems like the fans got on board and there is a suggestion the WTA will follow suit in the years ahead. It would mean a new way of approaching the first Grand Slam of the season, even if the Ranking points on offer have been heavily criticised considering the difficult criteria that needs to be satisfied and one that is going to really limit entrants to those at the top of the sport.

I can understand the frustrations in a sport where there is a real disparity in terms of earnings between the top players and those trying to make a living on the Tour... But the other side of the coin is that fans want to pay to watch the very biggest names and it is hard to ignore that. I would certainly think about changing the Ranking points to reflect those you can earn on the ATP 250 Tour rather than where it is now, but that is something that will need to be discussed as well as the fact that this ATP Cup is played weeks after a very similar looking Davis Cup is completed.


Those are issues that will need to be resolved in the months and years ahead, but the more pressing concern in Australia is the continuation of the raging fires that have shown little sign of ending. The impact on the climate is clearly a massive concern and one beyond those of us who are solely looking at the sporting impact, but that impact has also got to be considered with the Australian Open beginning this Monday in Melbourne.

Qualifiers have been played in very difficult conditions and players have struggled with the air quality which has led to suggestions that the Australian Open will be postponed, delayed or have the format of the early Rounds of the Men's tournament changed. All of those have been clarified since the initial reports, but there is clearly a real problem there and it may mean having to use the roofs that are available to make it as comfortable to play in Melbourne as it can be.

Weather conditions may be dictating play under the roof anyway with rain expected throughout the first week of the tournament and that can play havoc on the players who have not been scheduled to play on one of the main three courts. We have seen other Grand Slams fall into disarray when matces are backlogged like they could be at the Australian Open next week and it could be something that has a big impact on the way the tournament develops.


The 2019 season proved to be a very good one for the Tennis Picks with a very positive return at the end of the year which was around 30 units better than the year before, which was also a season with a very strong return. We still have some of the top names in the Men's game leading the way and it is the 'Big Three' who make up the top four favourites at the Australian Open, and the ever-improving Daniil Medvedev is also involved in those positions in the Outright Market.

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer continue to lead the way for the most part, although it will be interesting to see if some of the younger talents can make a more consistent breakthrough. Daniil Medvedev looks closest to doing that, but Stefanos Tsitsipas was the latest winner of the ATP Finals and that can't be dismissed.

The Women's game looks as wide open as it has in the last couple of years and for the third season in a row we had four different Champions at the four Grand Slams played. In those years only Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka have won multiple Slams and I do think the prices reflect that at the Australian Open with only three players in single digits in the Outright Market.

It is a shame that Bianca Andreescu is not able to take part this week and Kim Clijsters return to the Tour has also been delayed. Guessing how the year will go on the WTA looks a fool's errand too with so many players looking like they are on the edge of really taking hold of the top position on the Tour, but many others capable of producing three or four months of hot tennis that leads to multiple successes.

I would not be surprised if this is another season where we have four different Grand Slam Champions on the WTA Tour and I actually think the competitiveness at the top of the WTA is good for the fans. It might make picking matches a bit more difficult, but for pure viewing entertainment I am looking forward to the season.


The Australian Open is going to be the first tournament I am making Picks from in the 2020 season and that follows on from 2019 when I only had a total of TWO Picks through the first two weeks of the season. I have felt the long lay-off coupled with the new ATP Cup did make it more difficult to negotiate two weeks which can be erratic and the Australian Open has long been the Grand Slam that can produce some unexpected faces at the business end of the event.

In this thread I will take a look at the tournament and I am going to have daily threads that cover the Picks as I have done in recent seasons. Twelve months ago I finished with over 24 Units of profit from the Australian Open and it was something I was able to build upon in the months ahead, although I will admit I have usually had some up and down moments when it comes to those tournaments Down Under.

Hopefully we can get off to a flyer like we did in 2019 at the start of another long season on the Tour.

For those who are interested in these things, I have finally opened an Instagram page which can be accessed here.

And now we get onto the Outright look at the Australian Open following the draw and any Picks to begin the tournament which I have identified.

Men's Draw

I went back to have a look at the Australian Open Preview and Picks I had twelve months ago and backing Novak Djokovic to win the tournament was a boring, but effective selection.

The World Number 2 looks like he is already in good form having led Serbia to victory in the ATP Cup and his dismantling of Rafael Nadal in the Final has to have given him a huge boost of confidence. It was Djokovic and Nadal that sliced up the four Grand Slams between them in 2019 and I am not at all surprised to see them as the top two favourites going into the Australian Open this time either.

The draw was made on Thursday and I have to say Novak Djokovic has got to be very satisfied at a tournament he has largely made his own. While not having the kind of dominance Rafael Nadal does in Paris or what Roger Federer managed in London, Novak Djokovic has won six of the last nine Australian Open tournaments and he has won seven overall here which makes up just under half of his total of sixteen Slam titles.

An opening match against Jan-Lennard Struff won't be easy, but Novak Djokovic looks like he is going to come into Melbourne in very good form and it is hard to see him knocked off. I do think Novak Djokovic is going to be very happy with the way the first Four Rounds are likely to develop, but there is one real hurdle that could step in front of him on the way to another Final and that comes in the form of Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The ATP Finals Champion finished 2019 with the memorable win in London to earn the biggest title of his career and Tsitsipas is going to be backed by a loud Greek community that is based in Australia. Last year they helped him through to the Semi Final here and Tsitsipas has some solid numbers on the hard court over the last twelve months even if he was not at his best at the ATP Cup played earlier this month.

Stefanos Tsitsipas also holds a winning record over Novak Djokovic which is going to give him confidence and beating Roger Federer here last year means he won't be intimidated by the 'big name' on the other side of the court.

However no one should take for granted that Tsitsipas is going to be in the Quarter Final to oppose Djokovic with the likes of Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut potentially standing in front of him in the Third and Fourth Rounds respectively. Milos Raonic has had injury problems over the last year, but has a booming serve that can take the racquet away from Tsitsipas, while Roberto Bautista Agut won all six ATP Cup matches played and also pushed the Greek to four sets in a losing effort here last season.

Another player who should be relatively happy in the bottom half of the draw is the aforementioned Roger Federer who took the decision to skip playing warm up tournaments so he can be fully ready to go in Melbourne. He won the titles here in 2017 and 2018 so has to be respected, but Federer did not really hit his very best form after pushing Djokovic all the way in a classic Wimbledon Final back in July.

It does lead to doubts about his ability to reach the business end of this tournament, but the draw might have put those concerns to the back of the mind. Roger Federer should be able to build some momentum through the first three Rounds before a potentially tough match against either Denis Shapovalov or Federer's conqueror at the US Open Grigor Dimitrov.

That potential Fourth Round match looks to be the toughest in this Quarter of the draw, although Borna Coric and Matteo Berrettini may have something to say about that. The latter is an interesting proposition, but this is his first tournament of the 2020 season after a memorable 2019 and his hard court numbers suggest he will find it difficult to match the kind of run he had at the US Open a few months ago.

I do think there is every chance the Seedings hold up in the bottom half with a Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic Semi Final lined up for a week on Friday.

In all honesty the top half seems more straight-forward and I would be very surprised if Rafael Nadal is not making the Semi Final at the least- the Number 1 Seed was in good form at the Davis Cup and ATP Cup which alleviates concerns about the injury he was dealing with at the ATP Finals in London, while he could not have asked for a much better draw even accounting for the potential 'x factor' one opponent can bring.

I think Nadal is going to have very few problems in the first three Rounds, but he is then Seeded to meet Nick Kyrgios who will have the home fans behind him as well as a game that has proven difficult for the Spaniard to deal with in the past. Motivation for Kyrgios on a day by day basis is hard to work out though and it would not be a major surprise to me if he was not able to win the three matches required to potentially face Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round.

Instead it may come down to Karen Khachanov, who I do think can make strides in the 2020 season, but the young Russian is 0-8 against Rafael Nadal so the upset is hard to foresee.

Dominic Thiem and Kevin Anderson are interesting names that could face Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final, but I think both have issues to work out. The latter had an injury hit 2019 and only played his first tournament since Wimbledon at the ATP Cup, while Dominic Thiem has yet to get beyond the Fourth Round at the Australian Open which may leave the path clear for Nadal.

Instead the biggest threat in the top half should be Daniil Medvedev who reached the US Open Final and almost fought back from 2-0 down in sets to beat Rafael Nadal. At the moment I honestly believe only the top two Ranked players are performing better than the Russian and his game is tailor made to win Grand Slams whether that is to happen in 2020 or not.

There is no doubt that Medvedev has a more hazardous path through to the Semi Final with a difficult opening match against Francis Tiafoe and former Australian Open Finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be waiting in the Third Round. A former Champion here in Stan Wawrinka is a potential Fourth Round opponent and it would not be a huge surprise if the tennis catches up to Medvedev at some stage in this tournament, even if he showed a lot of character to come through difficult moments in New York a few months ago.

Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev are possible Quarter Final opponents who could be tough to stop if they have built up the momentum to reach that stage of the tournament and overall it looks a tough route to the Final for the third favourite in the Men's draw.

Even getting to the Semi Final might be some achievement for him here despite continuing to show character in matches and putting wins together even when it looks like Medvedev should be counted out. That inner belief has to be a sign of a future Grand Slam Champion (and one I think will win multiple Slams too), but this one might come too soon with the path that has to be treaded by the Number 4 Seed.


So what are the plays? Like I did twelve months ago, I have to recommend Novak Djokovic for the title even though he is very short odds. In fact he will go off at the same price as he was ahead of the 2019 Australian Open and I mentioned it was a 'boring' selection last season, but ultimately it returned a winner and he will be my main Outright selection from the opening Grand Slam of the 2020 season too.

The other Outright play in the Men's draw that I am going to take is the odds against quote for Roger Federer to win the Third Quarter. I mentioned the lack of competitive tennis could be a concern, while there are a couple of tough opponents in the section, but Federer should be able to ease his way into a tournament he won in 2017 and 2018 and I think he is looking like a solid play to reach the second week and another Semi Final here after the surprise Fourth Round defeat in 2019.

Women's Draw

It has been something of a mixed twelve months for Naomi Osaka who comes into the Australian Open as the defending Champion having won consecutive Slams when leaving with the title last year. Injuries have perhaps prevented her from kicking on, although the Number 3 Seed will come into this event as the joint second favourite to win the tournament having shown considerable form since the US Open.

She can be a hard person to read, but twelve months ago I did say she was the leading player to win the tournament along with Serena Williams and Elina Svitolina. Unfortunately I did not see the value in Osaka at the time despite that opinion.

Naomi Osaka lands in the Second Quarter of the draw and reached the Semi Final in Brisbane in preparing for the Australian Open, although the defeat to Karolina Pliskova ended her fourteen match winning run. The last eight wins prior to the loss in the Final came against players all Ranked inside the top twenty-five in the World Rankings and that is impressive no matter how you look at it.

There are some solid names in this Quarter of the draw which makes it hard to know how far Osaka can go, although the clear big threat is Serena Williams who won her first title in three years in Auckland earlier this month. Williams and Osaka are due to meet in the Quarter Final, but there are players capable of getting hot that could stand in the way with the most notable being Sloane Stephens, Sofia Kenin and Johanna Konta.

Two of those players have had injury concerns in recent weeks and months, while Sofia Kenin plays with her heart on her sleeve and won't give up but ultimately lacks some of the same firepower that Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams bring to the table.

A potential Quarter Final between Osaka and Serena Williams would be huge and I do think both are capable of backing up Seedings to get there.

The home fans will be hoping that those two players can take something away from the other no matter who wins as that may leave the door open for Ashleigh Barty to move one match away from becoming the first Australian woman to win the title here since 1978. The Number 1 Seed won the Grand Slam at the French Open in a real surprise, but Barty will be coming into the Australian Open without any competitive tennis under her belt in 2020.

Ashleigh Barty has been given anything but an easy draw with Lesia Tsurenko likely to be followed by Polona Hercog while Alison Riske and Petra Martic are other potential threats that will have to be dealt with before the Quarter Final.

Even if Barty was able to come through those matches, players like Madison Keys and Petra Kvitova, who both reached the Semi Final or better in Brisbane, could be waiting and I think the Australian looks a short price here. Madison Keys in particular interests me, despite the difficult opening match against Daria Kasatkina, and she has a game that is well suited to the hard courts.

In the last five editions of the US Open and Australian Open, Madison Keys has reached two Fourth Rounds, a Quarter Final, a Semi Final and a Final. The American has twice reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne in her career and she is capable of a very good run here.

Over the last couple of years it has become something of a feature of my pre-tournament thoughts about the Women's Grand Slams that there are some extremely difficult Quarters that need to be separated out. The top half looks a touch clearer to be me than the bottom half at the Australian Open with multiple Grand Slam Champions and players in form involved.

The highest Seed in the bottom half is Karolina Pliskova who won the title in Brisbane which is ideal preparation to take into the Australian Open. Previously you could draw a line through Pliskova as someone who had not brought her form to Grand Slam events, but she finally broke through at the US Open in 2016 when reaching the Final and has since reached the Quarter Final in six of twelve Grand Slams played. However Karolina Pliskova has not made another Final and only two Semi Finals which makes her a vulnerable player despite her Seeding.

The draw does look a decent one for Karolina Pliskova though and in a non-Grand Slam event I would be comfortable in suggesting she can get through to the Quarter Final with matches in front of her. Angelique Kerber had to pull out with an injury in her tournament being played in preparation for the Australian Open and so the biggest obstacles for Pliskova to overcome may be lining up to face her in the Quarter Final.

Elina Svitolina, Garbine Muguruza and Kiki Bertens are all on the other side of the mini-bracket in this section. I really do like the chances of Svitolina and Bertens, but my lean is towards the Dutchwoman who has played well on the hard courts and had a decent showing in Brisbane before going down to Naomi Osaka in three sets.

However the lack of success at the Australian Open would be an obvious concern with Kiki Bertens, whereas Elina Svitolina has played well here but has three very difficult matches potentially in front of her to reach the Fourth Round.

Even the Third Quarter of the draw looks like a very competitive one to set up the last remaining Semi Finalist and the three names that leap off the page are Belinda Bencic, Simona Halep and Aryna Sabalenka.

My question marks about the highest Seed in this section has to be the fact that Belinda Bencic made her first serious impact at a Grand Slam a few months ago at the US Open. There is every chance she pushes on from there, but she has only once made it past the Third Round at the Australian Open and has shown little form in the preparation tournaments to be encouraged by her. The draw also presents a couple of players who can be very strong on their day before Bencic is even able to make it through to the Fourth Round this time around and I will move past her.

Simona Halep is a bit more interesting as a former Australian Open Finalist, but she has only reached two Semi Finals in either Melbourne or New York City which suggests her best work is not on the hard courts. As good as the Romanian is, there is a feeling that someone can outhit her on the faster surfaces and she has had a lot more consistent success on the grass than she has on the hard courts at this level.

You can't read too much into the recent form with only one tournament under her belt, but over the last twelve months Halep's numbers are significantly down on the hard courts compared with the grass and clay and her opening match against Jennifer Brady could produce an upset. The Romanian has four previous First Round losses at the Australian Open and I will look past her here too.

Instead it may be time for Aryna Sabalenka to shine at the highest level- the Belarusian did not have the kind of impact in the Singles Grand Slam tournaments as she would have hoped in 2019, especially not after a very strong end to the 2018 season, but Doubles successes may have given her another boost in confidence. She was a Semi Finalist in her second tournament of the season and Aryna Sabalenka has slightly better hard court numbers than both Bencic and Halep over a twelve month period.

The potential Second Round match against Iga Swiatek and Third Round match against Donna Vekic makes for a difficult path for Sabalenka too so there isn't much in terms of a real confident selection to have from this section. Other players like Danielle Collins and Elise Mertens have enjoyed their time in Melbourne in the past, but I am hoping to see a big impact from Sabalenka to help her take the next step in her career.

Last season I thought it might be the time for Aryna Sabalenka to make waves at the Grand Slam level, but twelve months ago she was coming in as the third favourite to win the event. This time around I think she can benefit from flying under the radar somewhat and I am expecting a big couple of weeks from a big hitting player.


Picking a winner in the Women's draw is much more difficult than in the Men's and I can make a case for a number of players. With the way the draw has shaped up, two of the top three in the market are in the same Quarter and all of the top three favourites are in the top half of the draw.

With that in mind there could be some value in picking someone like Aryna Sabalenka or Kiki Bertens at big prices (17.00 and 51.00 respectively) in the hope of at least laying them off later in the tournament. There have been some unfamiliar names at the business end of the Australian Open down the years, but not too many that have reached the Final and so it can be difficult to really identify those who could go all the way.

Those two players I have mentioned may be the surprises to come out of the bottom half, but it looks a difficult market to attack with a lot of confidence.

I think Aryna Sabalenka can at least be backed to come out of the Third Quarter of the draw at a big price and is worth having a small interest on her.

The other Outright selection I am going to have is Madison Keys winning the First Quarter and upsetting Ashleigh Barty, the home fans and Petra Kvitova in this section. The Keys game is well suited to the hard courts as I have mentioned and I do think she can build some momentum through this tournament if she can bring her early season form into this tournament.

Her price is slightly bigger than Aryna Sabalenka's to win her portion of the Quarter and I think it is another worth a small interest ahead of the start of the first Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win the Tournament @ 2.20 Bet Fred (5 Units)
Roger Federer to Win Third Quarter @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka to Win Third Quarter @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Madison Keys to Win First Quarter @ 7.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)