Australian Open Tennis Outright Picks 2021 (February 8-21)

Nothing is back to normal just yet and we may still be some time away from that, but we have to appreciate the small things we are still able to enjoy and for sports fans I think there is a real thankfulness that we are able to have something to keep the days ticking along.

At some point we will be back with some normality in life, but I am grateful that the NFL was able to complete their season and are about to have a Super Bowl played in front of close to 30,000 fans, while you can only praise the Australian authorities for their success in containing the Covid-19 outbreak for much of the last year and being able to put on the Australian Open.

Back in March/April 2020 it was a really tough time for sports fans with all being shut down around the globe- without a doubt I appreciated all of the efforts to get those back up and running even if everyone didn't agree with doing that.

It is for selfish reasons- I honestly feel like sports has always given me a distraction in general life that can just help you shut out issues that are affecting you in your day to day and there really isn't a better drama being produced by Netflix/Sky/Amazon than the unpredictability of a live sporting event. For a long time I used to make a passing comment of 'I don't know what people who don't like sports do with their spare time' and back in March/April it became clear how important it can be.

In saying all that, I can understand the concerns a community like the one in Victoria, Australia would have been feeling ahead of the arrival of Tennis players from around the globe. While some of the more negative reactions from the players gained some traction in the press, the majority have been happy to comply with the rules and we are now close to having the first Grand Slam of the season being played.

With fans... And hopefully without any community transmission of Covid-19 cases.

There have been one or two worries, but for the main part it looks like Tennis Australia have got into a good position to run the tournament which is three weeks further into the calendar than we have come to expect. It does mean there has been some moving around of tournaments, but both Tours are hoping to be back on a more recognisable schedule when we reach the European clay court season in April, one that I very much missed last year.

I have not made more than the two Tennis Picks so far in 2021 and that was largely down to the way the tournaments have worked out- early events after the break between seasons have tended to be unpredictable anyway (I usually begin my main Picks from the Australian Open in each season) and this past week the tournaments being played in Melbourne came after many players had bee quarantined and who were getting back on the court.

My opinion is that this week offers us up a good indication of what kind of form players are coming in with, although for many it could be the first hard court action since the last Australian Open in January 2020 (when life felt extremely different).

The Australian Open can always spring up surprises because of the place it has on the calendar, but this year it feels a little more difficult to call. However the leading names on both Tours should be there or thereabouts in two weeks time and I am looking forward to having a little more consistent year watching the sport as the Tours move in a fashion we have become accustomed to seeing.

In this thread I am going to have a few thoughts about the two Singles draws and any Picks I may have from the Outright Markets.

Day 1 Picks should be out on Sunday with the tournament being played through the night for us in the United Kingdom (so beginning on Sunday night at the same time as the Super Bowl is being played) and Day 2 Picks should quickly follow with the First Round set to be played over those two days.

Men's Australian Open 2021

In normal years the Australian Open comes around at the start of a new calendar year and it does feel like we have had to wait quite a while since the last Grand Slam had been played.

With all of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 outbreak last year, the Tennis Tour placed two Grand Slams at the end of the season and so this is the third Slam played in five months.

Some things haven't changed though and that is namely the position Novak Djokovic sits in the draw- the Number 1 Seed is not only the favourite to win the Australian Open, but he is the defending Champion and will be looking for a first Grand Slam title since last January having come up short in New York and Paris.

Motivation is extremely high and Novak Djokovic has never disguised the fact that he wants to end his career with more Slams than his two rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. After winning in Melbourne last year it felt like a matter of time before Djokovic would at least match those two players, but the cancellation of Wimbledon and his poor decision which led to a Disqualification at the US Open have proved costly and even more so after losing the French Open Final to Nadal in a one-sided Final.

Some have suggested that Djokovic has been given a tough draw this year, but I think he looks a relatively safe bet to reach the Fourth Round at an event he has won eight times including in each of the last two seasons. At that stage there is a prospective dark horse standing in his way in the form of Stan Wawrinka or Milos Raonic, but you would consider Djokovic a strong favourite if at his best with those two (a former Champion and a former Semi Finalist) not producing the same type of consistency as the World Number 1.

The most realistic threat in the Quarter has to be Alexander Zverev who reached the US Open Final in 2020. However we have seen Zverev falter early in Grand Slams in the past and he has been beaten by Novak Djokovic twice in the last three months including at the ATP Cup being played in the week prior to the Australian Open so it would be a surprise if the defending Champion does not reach the final four.

A loaded Second Quarter in the draw has former Grand Slam Champions and Grand Slam Finalists littered through it, while a number of younger players are also looking to make a breakthrough on the Tour.

Dominic Thiem is the top Seed in the section and he will be plenty confident having won the US Open a few months ago in the same year he reached the Australian Open Final and pushed Djokovic all the way. The Austrian has had plenty of time to get over his exploits at the US Open and he looks mentally tough enough to deal with the additional pressures which come after winning a maiden Slam title and joining an elite list of players.

I am a fan of Thiem and his development on the hard courts means he is a threat to win three of the four Grand Slams that are played every season.

However this is a tough section as I mentioned already and I am also extremely excited about the possibility of a Third Round clash between Thiem and the enigmatic home favourite Nick Kyrgios. The lack of competitive tennis over the last several months has to be a concern for Kyrgios fans, but the talent is not to be disputed and I think he will be highly motivated to have a strong run in Melbourne over the next fortnight which makes him dangerous.

There are a number of Seeds in this section who will have felt they could have a serious run in the tournament if they had been given solid draws, but Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta and Denis Shapovalov are no sure things to get out of the First Round let alone go deep into the second week.

Those three players face Marin Cilic (a former US Open Champion), Kei Nishikori (a former US Open Runner Up) and Jannick Sinner (an up and coming super talent on the Tour) in the First Round. The two former players mentioned are not the forces they were as they try and recover some form and fitness, but the winner of the Shapovalov-Sinner match might actually end up being the Quarter Final opponent for what is most likely to be Dominic Thiem.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a former US Open Quarter Finalist and has shown he can play on all surfaces and Felix Auger-Aliassime is another big talent who will feel they can't be dismissed, but the bottom half of the Second Quarter looks highly competitive. That could mean whoever gets through to the Quarter Final is perhaps battle fatigued, especially after quarantine rules before the tournament, and Dominic Thiem does look the player most likely to make his mark on the form displayed over the last thirteen months.

I have to admit I am a big fan of the two Russian players that are the leading names in the Third Quarter of the draw- the top two Seeds in the section are Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev and I think the friends could be set for a Quarter Final match up in a few days time.

The main threats to oppose each player look to be Robert Bautista Agut and Filip Krajinovic who are solid hard court players that can bridge the gap to the very best when at their best.

Roberto Bautista Agut is an all court player who has reached the Fourth Round at every Slam on the Tour while he was a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open in 2019. It will be interesting to see how he deals with what is almost certainly going to be a negative reaction after a video was leaked of him complaining about quarantine conditions, but he can be solid enough to beat opponents who are perhaps not finding their best form.

His performances at the ATP Cup have been nothing to write home about though, while Rublev and Medvedev look to be in very good form based on their appearances in that event so far.

Filip Krajinovic is playing the best tennis of his career over the last couple of seasons, but he has yet to make an impact on at the Grand Slam level that he would have liked and so it is hard to look beyond Rublev and Medvedev for the Semi Final spot out of this Quarter.

If we do get to that Quarter Final, Daniil Medvedev will be a clear favourite having won his four previous matches against Andrey Rublev and in largely dominant fashion. He is the top Seed in the section and the player most likely to come out of this Quarter of the draw too.

At the start of the year you would have had many looking to back Rafael Nadal to win his second Australian Open and become the first men's player in the Open Era to win each of the Grand Slams at least twice. That would only add to what is already a wonderful legacy in the sport and might have underlined his status as the Greatest Of All Time, but a back injury over the last week has meant the Spaniard has not taken part in the ATP Cup as expected.

There is an opportunity for Rafael Nadal to work his way into the Australian Open assuming he is ready to go in the First Round, and I am not sure he will be challenged too much even if not at 100% until he gets through to the Quarter Final.

Before that stage I would expect Rafael Nadal to beat Laslo Djere, Michael Mmoh, Daniel Evans and Alex De Minaur and that would then make the 2009 Champion a dangerous prospect for any potential Quarter Final opponent.

The leading contender to do that has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas who reached the Semi Final in 2019, although he has not reached the Fourth Round of any hard court Grand Slam since then. There will be a huge amount of support for Tsitsipas, but his path through to the Quarter Final looks a lot more haphazard than Nadal's, while there are two big hitting threats that will feel they have the tools to beat the Greek star.

Both Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini are 24 years old, and look to be improving on the Tour. The former has perhaps not kicked on as much as he would have liked and Khachanov has not been beyond the Third Round at either the Australian Open or the US Open, but Matteo Berrettini has shown considerable form at the ATP Cup and reached the Semi Final at the 2019 US Open.

His style could be very dangerous if finding his best form and I do think the Italian has every chance of upsetting the odds through the draw. Both of his previous defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas came at a time when Matteo Berrettini was not playing as well as he is now and they were close matches anyway.

The First Round match against Kevin Anderson is a tough one on paper and just reduces some of the enthusiasm for Matteo Berrettini, but if he is able to work his way through that match I do think the draw could open up for him. He has won all three previous matches against Karen Khachanov and I do think Berrettini could be a tough player to stop if he builds his confidence through the draw.

At his best you would have to favour Rafael Nadal, but the doubts about his injury and how ready he is to compete at 100% might just leave it open for a surprise Semi Finalist in Matteo Berrettini.

I expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to have his backers, but he is just as likely to have an early exit in the tournament as he is in reaching the business end of the week. He has been beaten in the first week in five of the last eight Grand Slams he has played and Tsitsipas can't take anything for granted with the way the draw has shaped up for him which could leave the door open for the Number 9 Seed to have the most 'surprising' run in the Men's tournament.

Since Rafael Nadal won the Australian Open in 2009, only three men have won the title in Melbourne and one of those won't be playing this year.

Roger Federer is not in Australia, while his compatriot Stan Wawrinka is not the player he was and it would arguably be a much bigger surprise than when he won his first Grand Slam title if he was to do it again in 2021.

That leaves World Number 1 Novak Djokovic who has won the title eight times here before and looks set to make it nine in a row. He is still the top hard court player in the world and while I think the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev are getting closer, Novak Djokovic is the man to beat with Rafael Nadal struggling.

Novak Djokovic has won the last two Australian Open titles and regularly is given plenty of support in Melbourne where the conditions and playing surface seem almost perfect for him.

Dominic Thiem is a likely Semi Final opponent for Djokovic, who could have to beat the two names mentioned to win the title here, and the US Open Champion pushed the World Number 1 to five sets in the Final here last year. However that is the latest setback against Novak Djokovic on a hard court and even the fact he has won three of the last four against this opponent may not be enough for Dominic Thiem to get the better of him here.

I still think the Austrian is good enough to get out of his Quarter of the draw having reached the Final of both hard court Grand Slam events last season and the path through to the Semi Final looks to have worked for him.

After helping Russia win the ATP Cup, I do think Daniil Medvedev could be ready to go all the way at the Australian Open and win a maiden Grand Slam title. The expected faster conditions shouldn't bother him too much having had success on the relatively quick New York City and I expect to see Medvedev at the business end of the week. He should be able to get through the Third Quarter of the draw and a small interest on Matteo Berrettini to win the Fourth Quarter may be warranted at the prices on offer.

I have to say that Rafael Nadal looks like he is feeling strong even though he pulled out of the warm up events with a back issue, but he has regularly had issues in Melbourne since winning the title in 2009 and Matteo Berrettini's form in the ATP Cup shows an improving player that may be ready to reach another hard court Grand Slam Semi Final after doing the same at the US Open.

Women's Australian Open 2021

The decision to expand the amount of results being considered when putting the World Rankings together is the reason Ashleigh Barty will be going into her home Grand Slam as the World Number 1 and top Seed.

With the pandemic raging and travel being an issue, Ashleigh Barty decided to skip the Tour after the tournament in Doha in February and she does believe it was a decision that was the right one for her. The lack of competitive tennis might be problematic, but Barty has played well in the warm up tournament for the Australian Open and she will be comfortable in Melbourne having reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final in the last two years in this tournament.

In between those runs Ashleigh Barty has won the French Open and there will be a confidence that this is a tournament that can be won with the Woman's Tour remaining wide open at the very top. Like many of the Quarters in the draw, there seem to be dangers lurking around every corner and I do think Barty is not going to be able to get by if her tennis is less than close to at its very best which is why her run in the warm up tournaments have been so encouraging.

The biggest threats may come from fellow Seeds Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova and both are former Semi Finalists in Melbourne. However the two players can be a little inconsistent and both have some potentially difficult early matches that could see them exit before Ashleigh Barty has to face them anyway.

Even with the lack of competitive tennis over the last several months, I think Ashleigh Barty has been given an opportunity to go very deep into the Australian Open once again.

The Second Quarter looks like it could be a lot of fun at the Australian Open with defending Champion Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Azarenka, Johanna Konta and Maria Sakkari all likely to enter the tournament and feel like they could go all the way.

Sofia Kenin reached the French Open Final last year too and she will be feeling like her effort will always reward her, while Victoria Azarenka has won the Australian Open twice before. The Belarusian has actually missed three of the last four tournaments played in Melbourne and was beaten in the First Round in the other, but Azarenka reached the US Open Final in 2020 and looked to be back to close to her best in New York.

Elina Svitolina has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slams she has played, but this is a player that is hard to trust to win these big tournaments. There is a clear panic in her play when she has gotten close to winning a Grand Slam and I think that is likely to let her down at some point in this tournament too.

I have to admit I have been surprised by the development of Maria Sakkari, but she still looks short of some levels to win a major like this one and Johanna Konta has not been past the Second Round in the last three Australian Open tournaments since reaching back to back Quarter Finals here.

This illustrates that while these players are likely to provide one of the Semi Finalists, it is hard to really trust any of them with real confidence.

A dark horse like Kaia Kanepi and Jennifer Brady might be able to break through with the right results around them, but an open Quarter looks like being a fun one to watch rather than selecting which player is capable of winning five matches to earn a Semi Final spot.

Naomi Osaka heads up the Third Quarter and, barring a loss of focus or injury, I think this is the player that will competing for Grand Slam titles on a regular basis. The WTA Tour actually has some extremely talented youngsters that are breaking through all the time, but Naomi Osaka is a three time Grand Slam Champion at 23 years old and with the development of sports science she is capable of quadrupling that total before she calls time on her career.

Yes, I am extremely high on Osaka and her capabilities on a tennis court.

She has won the US Open twice already and is the defending Champion there, while the other Grand Slam title came in Melbourne. It is clear that Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts, but my one concern for this player is that she has played in seventeen Grand Slams and only reached the second week five times. Fair enough it is some conversion rate to produce three titles from those five appearances in the second week of a Grand Slam, but you do have to say that Naomi Osaka is potentially vulnerable early in any Slam she plays in.

And this year Naomi Osaka has some very awkward potential matches before she gets into the Fourth Round which makes it hard to back her. It begins immediately in the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and an early exit will only offer real encouragement to some of the other players in this Quarter of the draw.

The one that looks to stand out is Petra Kvitova who has played her best tennis at the Australian Open in the last two seasons with a Final and a Quarter Final run in 2019 and 2020. Last year she also reached the French Open Semi Final as the Czech lefty looks to add to the two Wimbledon titles she has won and I think a bit more fortune could have led to a title for Petra Kvitova.

I do think Petra Kvitova can work her way through the draw and she is certainly capable of reaching another Semi Final at this tournament.

A player like Bianca Andreescu will be competing for Grand Slam titles throughout her career as long as she stays healthy, but the long lay off with an injury and the precautionary withdrawal from the warm up events may leave her short. Garbine Muguruza is also in this section of the draw and reached the Final of the Australian Open last year, but the Spaniard is someone who blows hot and cold which makes it hard to really believe in her.

The performances in the warm up events being played ahead of the Australian Open are encouraging, but Garbine Muguruza has only reached the second week in four of the last eleven Grand Slam events she has played.

Her draw doesn't look the worst, but Angelique Kerber could be waiting in the Third Round and I do feel that Petra Kvitova may be in the best position to take advantage of the way the section has panned out.

There are going to be plenty of people tuning into the Australian Open and wondering if this is the tournament in which Serena Williams finally levels the record set by Margaret Court for most Grand Slam Singles titles won. When she won here in Melbourne in 2017 it seemed inevitable that not only would Williams level the record, but push past it, although at the time no one knew that she was playing while pregnant with her first child.

It meant taking some time off from the Tour, but Serena Williams returned in May 2018 and she has reached four Grand Slam Finals since then, although fallen short of winning another title each time.

The window is closing now with some talented younger, hungry players on the Tour who are no longer intimidated by the American former World Number 1. A withdrawal in the warm up event for the Australian Open is a slight concern for Serena who admitted she would not have played in Melbourne if the tournament had not been delayed, but I think the draw looks decent enough to get through the early Rounds.

Laura Siegemund is a battler and could cause one or two problems in the First Round, but the bigger challenges are down the line with the expectation that Serena Williams will have to deal with a big hitting, in form Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round.

Iga Swiatek, the French Open Champion, and Elena Rybakina are two other young players in this Quarter of the draw who will feel they are capable enough on the hard courts to go very far in the first Grand Slam of the 2021 tournament. And all of this is without mentioning the Number 2 Seeded Simona Halep who has played in two Quarter Finals, a Semi Final and a Final in the Australian Open.

I do think both Swiatek and Halep are perhaps better suited to the hard courts here rather than the ones used at the US Open and both are amongst the leading contenders to win the French Open in May. Both players will feel they can challenge anyone they face in the tournament, while Elena Rybakina is developing at a rapid rate and a potential Winner here if finding her best form.

With Rybakina it feels like the draw could have been better as the likes of Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep could blunt some of her attacking prowess on this kind of hard court, but she will learn from the experience and it should stand her in good stead going forward.

The same could be said for Aryna Sabalenka who is trying to show more patience rather than hitting the ball harder and harder until she breaks through someone's defences. It can't always work at the top, top level to not have other paces to your game, but I do think she is learning and it might be another year before the Belarusian is able to challenge for a Grand Slam title.

Serena Williams should have a good run here, but I do think one of those players mentioned will be able to get the better of her in this Quarter. If Aryna Sabalenka can hold herself together between the ears she is a real threat, while Simona Halep will be confident having had some considerable successes in Melbourne in the past.

I am a big fan of Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina too, but I think both may cause problems but ultimately find someone a little better than them on the day.

The last time Australia were able to celebrate a home winner of the Women's tournament was over forty years ago, but 2021 could see that all change.

While it is hard to ignore the long lay off Ashleigh Barty has had from the Tour, her performances this past week in the lead up to the Australian Open and the way the draw has worked out makes the World Number 1 my favourite to win the tournament this week.

I think Barty is a very good player, and she has improved her performance in the Australian Open in each of the last three seasons while going down to a very narrow defeat to eventual Champion Sofia Kenin in the Semi Final in January 2020. This is a player who left the Tennis Tour to take up professional cricket and then returned to eventually reach the top of the mountain so even the effective year off from the Tour is not enough for me to think the home favourite is going to be adversely affected here.

Ashleigh Barty looks to have been placed in a relatively decent portion of the draw and I think she can pick up some momentum in each passing Round to go on and win her second Grand Slam title.

Whoever comes out of the Second Quarter will be a danger, while I also think Petra Kvitova looks a big price if she is able to find her way through the early Rounds. She could benefit from the likes of Naomi Osaka and Garbine Muguruza potentially not even making it to a Quarter Final against her and Petra Kvitova has reached the Final and the Quarter Final in the last two years in Melbourne.

Her head to head with Muguruza is encouraging, while both defeats to Naomi Osaka could easily have gone Petra Kvitova's way and I think she can have a good run here.

The Czech lefty has fallen towards the business end of this Grand Slam in the last couple of years, but Petra Kvitova looks a big price to win the Third Quarter of the draw.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Outright @ 2.37 Sky Bet (4 Units)

Dominic Thiem to Win Second Quarter @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev to Win Third Quarter @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini to Win Fourth Quarter @ 13.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)

Ashleigh Barty to Win First Quarter @ 3.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova to Win Third Quarter @ 8.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wimbledon Outright Picks 2014 (June 23-July 6)

The draw for the third Grand Slam event was made on Friday 20th June and there is definitely the potential for some big matches in both the men's and women's events over the next two weeks as Andy Murray looks to defend the title he won last season. Of course, there is no defending Champion in the women's draw since Marion Bartoli retired in the weeks after winning Wimbledon last year, but that means the honour goes to Sabine Lisicki to open play on Tuesday as the runner up twelve months ago.

Personally I am looking forward to Wimbledon with a number of younger players beginning to make their mark on both Tours, although I think it would still be a big surprise if a familiar name is not lifting the trophy at the end of the two weeks.

Men's Draw

First Quarter

He might not be the World Number 1 in the Rankings, but Wimbledon have their own formula for seeding and that means Novak Djokovic will be heading up the draw, although I am pretty convinced that he would swap places with Rafael Nadal right now.

Despite what the media may have you believe, I honestly believe Novak Djokovic has drawn the short straw of the top four players with his Quarter of the draw looking incredible difficult to negotiate.

Some of the names in the section include Radek Stepanek (Queens Semi Finalist this year), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (twice Wimbledon Semi Finalist), Ernests Gulbis, Fernando Verdasco (Wimbledon Quarter Finalist in 2013), Marin Cilic (former Queens Winner) and Tomas Berdych (former Wimbledon Finalist).

You can probably draw a line through Stepanek, Gulbis and Verdasco, but the other three names are all very capable of drawing a surprise from Djokovic before the Semi Finals, especially if the wrist is giving the Serb more problems.

He had to pull out of a scheduled match at The Boodles ahead of Wimbledon, but that could have been a precaution, although it raises enough questions to at least have a worry about the man set as the favourite to capture his second Wimbledon title.

Djokovic should be comfortable through the first three Rounds at the tournament, but then he has to be on his game if he wants to go deep into the second week with the likes of Tsonga and Cilic/Berdych the likely opponents in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final respectively.

In all honesty, I would fancy a fully fit Djokovic to see those players off in a best of five set match, but the wrist raises some questions, while the likes of Tsonga can 'get hot' and take the racquet out of an opponent's hands. On form, you'd have to think Djokovic still has too much, but he has to be careful to leave something in the tank for the remainder of the tournament if he is to capture his first Grand Slam title since the Australian Open in January 2013.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic, although he is likely to have been tested.

Second Quarter

Andy Murray finally broke the long wait for a British men's Champion at Wimbledon twelve months ago, but it is arguably going to be harder for him to defend that title, especially considering the lack of consistent form since going in for back surgery. Yes, Murray did reach the Semi Final at Roland Garros, but he did seem to take advantage of a decent draw and winning Wimbledon is going to be a different challenge with a lot more expectation of him on the grass courts.

I have argued for a while that Andy Murray is the best grass court player in the world even if he was surprisingly beaten by Radek Stepanek at Queens in preparation for Wimbledon. He had been on a long winning run on the surface prior to that result, a run that had seen him pick up the Olympic Gold Medal, the Queens title and culminate in winning Wimbledon.

I mentioned that Murray took advantage of a decent draw at Roland Garros to reach the Semi Final in Paris, and I don't think he will have too many qualms about the draw at Wimbledon either, especially in his Quarter.

There are serious doubts about David Ferrer who looks like he will participate, but that had been in question up until the middle of last week and I don't think the Spaniard is going to have the stamina we have come to expect from him. Ferrer has been suffering with some sort of illness that has lingered from the French Open and forced him out of Hertogenbosch last week.

The player that could take most advantage of any issues with Ferrer is the current Queens Champion Grigor Dimitrov who bounced back from an awful French Open showing that saw him beaten in the First Round by Ivo Karlovic. I picked Dimitrov to win at Queens because I feel his game is well suited to the grass courts and the Bulgarian may have the opportunity to match his best showing at a Grand Slam which is the Quarter Final he achieved at the Australian Open earlier this season.

A concern for Dimitrov will be the fact he has not surpassed the Second Round at Wimbledon, but he looks in a decent section of the draw to surpass that as long as he can remain in control of his emotions.

He does look the biggest threat to Murray from the section, especially if Ferrer is not healthy enough for the best of five set marathons, and that does look a fascinating Quarter Final to look forward to.

Prediction: Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov Quarter Final would be great viewing, but the defending Champion should have the edge in this part of the draw.

Third Quarter

There were a few players that I knew I would want to oppose in this grass court Grand Slam and while some of them have landed in the tough top half of the draw (Ernests Gulbis was always going to be over-rated after his Paris exploits but is in an incredibly tough First Quarter), some like Stan Wawrinka are heading up the Third Quarter of the draw.

Wawrinka did reach the Semi Final at Queens, but he had a very nice draw to reach that stage and he has openly admitted that he hasn't coped with winning the Australian Open, especially with a new expectation on a player that cracked the top three in the World Rankings.

His results at Wimbledon wouldn't have inspired much confidence even without the doubts that Wawrinka is suffering- he reached the Fourth Round in back to back years in 2008 and 2009, but Wawrinka has failed to get beyond the Second Round in his next four appearances in SW19 and has three First Round exits.

The chances of Wawrinka going deep into the tournament means beating the likes of either Denis Istomin or Dmitry Tursunov in the Third Round and then facing dangerous players like Feliciano Lopez or John Isner in the Fourth Round.

In all honesty Lopez or Isner could be the dark horse of a Quarter that also contains Roger Federer and I can see one of those two players reaching the Quarter Final. Their Third Round clash looks to be a big one, but I have to respect the form that Lopez has shown by reaching the Final in Queens and also in Eastbourne.

Federer is likely to be the Quarter Final opponent as long as he can erase the memory of his Second Round exit when he could face Julien Benneteau at the same stage- Benneteau had a two sets lead over Federer here back in 2012, a tournament the Swiss star eventually won and could pose some problems, but I don't have the same feeling that Jerzy Janowicz can turn around his 2014 form to replicate the Semi Final he reached at Wimbledon twelve months ago.

Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Robredo are a couple of veterans that would like to make their presence felt- however, I would be confident that Federer beats either on grass and the biggest threat to a Semi Final appearance for the seven time Wimbledon Champion could be Feliciano Lopez.

Prediction: Roger Federer likely to be the man to reach the Semi Final, but I won't be ignorining what Feliciano Lopez or John Isner could do this year.

Fourth Quarter

The media outlets have all described this as being a 'difficult draw' for the Number 2 Seeded Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon this year, but I think the nine time French Open Champion is in line to have his best performance at SW19 since finishing as Runner Up in 2011.

Two early exits over the last two seasons before the Second Round has raised doubts about whether Nadal can rediscover his form on the grass courts that helped him win Wimbledon and also saw him involved in two epic Finals with Roger Federer.

It is right to suggest Nadal is most vulnerable in the early stages of the tournament where the Spaniard could perhaps take a little time getting into his stride coming off the clay courts and limited action in Halle, but I also believe he will have something to prove to himself this year. Roland Garros was the main priority for Nadal, but the feeling is that Wimbledon could also be higher on his list than maybe expected.

Martin Klizan is the First Round opponent and being a lefty means Nadal's 'normal game' may not be as effective as it is against right-handed players across the net from him. However, I would expect Nadal to win that match and then we could see a potential repeat of the 2012 Second Round match between Nadal and Lukas Rosol.

That kind of big-hitter would be a problem, but Rosol is so inconsistent and they do say lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot, while Ivo Karlovic has a pretty poor record at Wimbledon considering his game looks suited to grass so there is no reason to believe he is 100% going to be facing the Spaniard in the Third Round.

By the time Nadal is seeded to meet Richard Gasquet, he should be in a good spot mentally and I don't think the Frenchman believes he can win this kind of match, even if he does secure the title in the Final at Eastbourne which is to be played after I complete this preview for Wimbledon.

Milos Raonic has been touted as a difficult Quarter Final for Nadal by the media, but the Canadian is definitely very vulnerable on the grass and has suffered some incredibly poor losses on the surface over the last twelve months. There is nothing to suggest he would come through against the likes of Kei Nishikori or Philipp Kohlschreiber in a potential Fourth Round clash, if Raonic is even to get that far in the tournament.

There are doubts about Nishikori simply because he has reached one Quarter Final in nineteen appearances in the Grand Slams and whether his injury-proneness allows him to compete in the best of five set matches effectively is a big question. Philipp Kohlschreiber has had success on the grass courts including beating Nadal in Halle in the past, but taking out the World Number 1 in a best of five would be a huge task both mentally and physically and that is not what I would be trusting the German to do.

Prediction: It might not be the consensus, but I like Rafael Nadal's chances of making another big impact at Wimbledon this season after a couple of disappointing showings at SW19.

Outright Preview

There has been a lot of talk of the 'Big Four' players of the last few seasons perhaps seeing their dominance broken in 2014, especially when Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open title and then followed that up with the first Masters on clay by winning in Monte Carlo.

However, we saw three of the traditional 'Big Four' reach the Semi Finals at Roland Garros and there is every chance that a familiar looking Semi Final line up could take place at Wimbledon.

Out of the top four seeds, I think Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are most vulnerable to someone playing a huge match to knock them out- Djokovic has a very difficult draw from the Fourth Round onwards, plus some concerns about his well-being with the wrist causing issues; Roger Federer did play well in winning the title at Halle, but he has only been beyond the Fourth Round of one of his last four Grand Slams and has surpassed the Quarter Final in one of his last four appearances at Wimbledon (albeit winning the title in 2012 when he did so).

The likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, John Isner and Feliciano Lopez will feel they can upset Djokovic/Federer in their respective Quarters and I think both players will also be tested to the point that they could be vulnerable in the Semi Finals if Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the players that are waiting for them.

Backing Rafael Nadal is dangerous considering he doesn't feel as comfortable on the grass courts since the knee injury that curtailed his 2012 season and the two early losses he has had at Wimbledon in the last two years makes him a vulnerable player, especially early.

However, I think he can get on a roll with the way the draw has panned out if he does come through the first couple of Rounds unscathed and I like putting Nadal in my staking plan.

Defending a title can be incredibly taxing mentally for a player if you listen to what the professionals say in that position and I think you can ratchet up that pressure if you're Andy Murray and defending the Wimbledon crown. However, he can't have asked for a better draw and I am not reading too much into the defeat at Queens, while Murray remains arguably the best grass court player in the world as far as I am concerned.

There is the worry that Murray hasn't had a lot of success against the top, top players since returning from his back injury, but the draw has been kind in that regards and I think he has to be kept onside in this tournament too.

If Murray is to fall, there is the chance that it is down to the reigning Queens Champion Grigor Dimitrov and I am going to have a small interest in him winning the Second Quarter and making his biggest impact at a Grand Slam. As I have stated before, Dimitrov has the game to be a really strong grass player for years to come, and winning Queens has proven to be a big stepping stone for players in the past so there is every chance he can surprise Murray.

Another player who had a huge week at Queens has to be worth a small interest in the Third Quarter of the draw- Feliciano Lopez has reached back to back Finals on grass (still to play the Final at Eastbourne where Lopez is defending Champion) and has the serve and volleying skills that make him very dangerous.

His record against potential Quarter Final opponent Roger Federer leaves a lot to be desired, but Lopez is serving incredibly well at the moment and I think he can take advantage of a section that includes Stan Wawrinka and give himself a chance of moving into his first Slam Semi Final.

The match with John Isner is a tough Third Round match to negotiate, but if Federer and Wawrinka struggle, Lopez could be the man to get behind.

Women's Draw

First Quarter

Serena Williams is still heading up the women's draw despite failing to win either Grand Slam contested this season and she is perhaps coming into the Wimbledon draw with a few more doubts than we have come to expect from the American. There is no doubt that Williams is pretty unbeatable when she brings her absolute best to the court, but there have been plenty of sub-par days where she is very vulnerable to a surprise defeat.

It was Ana Ivanovic at the Australian Open and it was Garbine Muguruza at the French Open, while Sabine Lisicki stunned Williams at Wimbledon twelve months ago and the draw this year has a few tough questions that will be asked of the Number 1 Seed.

The First Quarter of the draw is loaded with threats to Serena Williams, perhaps none more so than French Open Champion Maria Sharapova who is seeded to meet Williams in the Quarter Final- if I am perfectly honest, I could never back Sharapova to beat Williams simply because of the head to head and some of the beatings the American has handed out, but there is no guarantee that Williams reaches the Quarter Final.

Eugenie Bouchard is the only player that has reached the Semi Final of both Grand Slams this season and is a potential Fourth Round opponent for Serena Williams, while Alize Cornet is a potential Third Round opponent that did beat Williams on the hard courts of Dubai earlier this season.

Even Sharapova is going to be tested before the Quarter Final stage with the dangerous Camila Giorgi and Angelique Kerber in her mini-section of the draw and the expected showdown between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova is certainly not a gimme.

Prediction: Tough, tough section- it is hard to go against Serena Williams if she is on form, but she better start off faster than she does at times if she is to reach the Semi Final.

Second Quarter

The Second Quarter of the draw looks a lot more open with the top seeded players in the section, Simona Halep and Jelena Jankovic, having a few questions to deal with. Simona Halep did win the title at Hertogenbosch last season so can perform on the grass, but she reached the Final at the French Open and that may have taken its toll mentally on her, while Jankovic has struggled on the grass courts for consistency in recent seasons.

Out of the two top Seeds, you would say that Halep has more of a chance to play herself into the tournament in the top half of the section, but Jankovic is going to have to deal with a number of players that are confident on the surface and playing well.

Look at some of the names in the bottom part of this section- Ana Ivanovic (who won the title in Birmingham), Sabine Lisicki (last year's Runner Up), Madison Keys (the Eastbourne Champion), as well as potentially dangerous players like Taylor Townsend and Monica Puig.

With the clearer run, Halep has every chance of at least reaching the Semi Final, but I think the danger comes from Ana Ivanovic who has shown improvement through the entire season although it is her potential Third Round match with Sabine Lisicki that presents the most problems.

We have also seen young players breakthrough at the Slams this season so Madison Keys will interest people as a surprise Semi Finalist, but she is coming off a long week at Eastbourne and may just struggle to repeat the formula in a more pressure filled environment.

Prediction: Ana Ivanovic may be the surprise Semi Finalist if she brings her Birmingham form into SW19.

Third Quarter
Over the course of the season, I have moved Agnieszka Radwanska onto my 'do not trust black list' as the Number 4 Seed has begun to really struggle against opponents she would usually dismiss. Before this season, I always saw Radwanska as being a solid enough player to beat those below her in the Rankings, but wouldn't win a Grand Slam as she wasn't aggressive enough.

There is the issue of finding the right balance in her play and I do think she is perhaps pushing too much, but I think that makes her a vulnerable player in her Quarter.

The options to oppose Radwanska in this Quarter are plentiful- however, almost all of them have some doubts and that makes it all the tougher to call.

Dominika Cibulkova hasn't had the same sort of success in recent months as when she reached the Australian Open Final in January, but she has the kind of grass court pedigree that makes her dangerous. Victoria Azarenka is coming off a long lay-off, Ekaterina Makarova and Tsevtana Pironkova have grass court success but are so inconsistent, while Svetlana Kuznetsova is capable of springing a couple of surprise results but lacks the consistency that took her to two Grand Slam wins in the past.

I know there will be a few who back Garbine Muguruza, but she hasn't had a lot of time to digest her performances from Roland Garros and this Slam may come a little too quick, even if her game looks to be suited to the grass.


Fourth Quarter
I was a little surprised to see that Na Li has never been beyond the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon with the way she plays, but some players just don't ever get themselves right mentally to perform on the grass courts. Li is the Number 2 Seed here as she looks to bounce back from a poor French Open and she must look at the draw and think this is about as a good a chance as you can get in a Slam to ease your way into a tournament.

From the Fourth Round it looks to be more difficult with her likely opponent to be Caroline Wozniacki or Sam Stosur at that point and both of those players would feel they would have the edge in that potential match.

However, the biggest threat may be sitting at the top of the Quarter in 2011 Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova as long as the thigh issue she had at Eastbourne which forced her withdrawal is not too serious.

Kvitova would have to be fit to see off grass expert Venus Williams who may have one more big Grand Slam event in her despite not being at the level of a few years ago, while Sloane Stephens seems to find a way to turn up the heat in the Grand Slams. However, Kvitova loves the grass courts and a healthy player would surely go very close to repeating the success of three years ago.

The big lefty serve is a huge weapon on the grass, and Kvitova can certainly get into a groove when it comes to hitting winners, but she is really inconsistent and lets too many matches go into three sets instead of finishing off opponents as she should. That can take it's toll in a long two weeks of increasing mental pressure and that would be the bigger concern in backing Kvitova from an open section of the draw.


Outright Preview
I've always said that Serena Williams is the player to beat in the women's draw and that remains the case, although there must be more doubters considering her two Grand Slam losses in 2014 and this whole season being something of a come down from the last two seasons on the Tour.

Williams has already matched the same number of losses from the whole of 2013 and has only suffered one fewer than the whole of 2012, but she has shown the ability to bounce back from poor losses in tournaments down the line over the last two years.

She has won two Grand Slams in each of the last two seasons and she can match that by winning her two favourite Slams at Wimbledon and the US Open, but Williams has to be careful not to be caught cold.

Serena has suffered some poor losses in the Grand Slams, and she comes into Wimbledon in a similar manner as in 2012 when she did win the tournament. That season, Williams was beaten in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and the First Round at the French Open before winning the last two Grand Slam events and you can't help but see the similarities to this season when she was beaten in the Fourth Round at Melbourne Park and Second Round at Roland Garros.

I do have a feeling that Williams had been suffering with some sort of injury, but her serve is usually a monster for her, especially on grass, and I can see the American returning to winning ways in the best possible way.

The biggest threat to Williams may actually be Eugenie Bouchard who could provide a Fourth Round opponent, but I would expect Serena to be 'warmed up' in the tournament by then and would fancy her to win that match. Maria Sharapova will be confident, but her record against Serena Williams is more than forgettable and I will back Serena Williams to rediscover her form and remind people of her power in the women's game.

It is actually quite hard to find an alternative to Serena Williams in what looks a wide open draw outside of the American and the odds back that up- only Maria Sharapova is at single digits to win the tournament so there is the potential to find a big priced winner. If Petra Kvitova hadn't been suffering with a thigh injury at Eastbourne, she could have been the one for me and instead I will back a couple of outsiders to win their respective Quarters.

The first of those is Ana Ivanovic in the Second Quarter as I think she is getting closer and closer to putting together the form that won the French Open and took her to World Number 1- her win in Birmingham will only aid her confidence and Ivanovic looks a real threat in the wide open Second Quarter as long as she can handle Sabine Lisicki in the Third Round.

Another Quarter that looks like it will open for a few players is the Third Quarter as I pointed out above and I think Dominika Cibilkova is a big price for a former Quarter Finalist. She hasn't been at her best over the last few months, but Cibulkova can take the game to the highest Seed in the section, Agnieszka Radwanska, and may surprise.

MY WIMBLEDON OUTRIGHT PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 6.50 Bwin (2 Units)

Andy Murray @ 4.50 Paddy Power (3 Units) Refunding if player knocked out before Quarters

Grigor Dimitrov to Win Second Quarter @ 6.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Feliciano Lopez to Win Third Quarter @ 15.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Serena Williams @ 2.75 Coral (4 Units)
Ana Ivanovic to Win Second Quarter @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Dominika Cibulkova to Win Third Quarter @ 10.00 Coral (1 Unit)

Weekly Daily Final: 5-12, - 15.04 Units (34 Units Staked, - 44.24% Yield)

Season 2014: + 36.82 Units (910.5 Units Staked, + 4.04% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units