Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 16-18)

Forgive me, but I am still trying to get over the terrible Fantasy Week I experienced as pretty much every decision I made for my team was the wrong one.

I'll get back to that on Friday when the next Weekend Football thread comes out along with my Fantasy selections for GW35, but this thread is concentrating on the Quarter Final matches to be played in the Champions League and Europa League this week.

Most of the Second Legs to come over the next three days are finely balanced and even the ties that look like there is a real advantage for one of the teams are far from over considering what we have seen in European competition throughout this season.

You can read my thoughts on the four Champions League fixtures and the two Europa League fixtures involving the English clubs below.


Barcelona v Manchester United Pick: The First Leg of this Quarter Final was an interesting game, but Manchester United had to feel disappointed they were not able to test a Barcelona team who are not as strong as previous editions. It does feel the best chance of winning the tie would have been at Old Trafford, but Manchester United have won at big away grounds in the Champions League this season including a stunning 1-3 win in Paris to make it through to the Quarter Final.

That is something that may be on the minds of the Barcelona players, but they will also know they are a much more secure team than Paris Saint-Germain from a mental point of view. Where Paris Saint-Germain have something of a reputation for being potential chokers, Barcelona are unbeaten in 30 Champions League home games and have won 27 of them.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is right to say this is a bigger challenge than winning in Paris despite the closer nature of the scoreline from the First Leg. Ultimately Barcelona are not known to blow leads like the one they have and they are a different beast at home compared with their travels.

Manchester United have won in Paris and Turin during their Champions League run and scored at least twice in both games so there is hope. The performances in recent weeks tempers some of the enthusiasm though and it would be a huge surprise if they can turn up the level after struggling in recent games to really impose themselves.

They key will be to stay in this one as long as possible and hope to exploit nerves for a team that have not reached the Champions League Semi Final since winning the trophy in 2015. It just sounds too far fetched here and as much as I would LOVE to be wrong again (like I was in the Second Leg in the last Round), I can only see Barcelona taking the lead and this time exploiting spaces that Manchester United will inevitably have to leave behind to get back into the tie.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City have taken some thumping defeats in visits to the Nou Camp in the last three years and it could be the turn of Manchester United this week.


Juventus v Ajax Pick: The majority of the First Leg of this Champions League Quarter Final was dominated by Ajax at the Amsterdam Arena, but I think Juventus will be far the happier with the 1-1 draw that gives them a slight edge in the tie.

I think there will have to be some wariness of what Ajax are capable of doing when Juventus take in the 1-4 win the Dutch club had at Real Madrid in the Second Round, but being back at home should be a big comfort for the Italian Champions.

The team should be fresh with many being rested for the 2-1 loss at SPAL this past weekend and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals at home. However they have been far from invulnerable here in the Champions League with 2 losses from their last 5 games played in this competition.

Ajax play with the freedom of youth which makes them very dangerous and they will believe they can score at least one goal that that they need to give themselves a chance of progressing. Balancing attack and defence will be the key and Ajax can't expect Juventus to defend anywhere near as poorly as Real Madrid did in the Last 16.

I do think they will have chances, but Ajax will also have to take risks and Juventus have been scoring goals for fun in front of their own fans. I do think there will be a situation where Juventus are able to expose their visitors on the counter attack to confirm their place in the Semi Final and the Ajax upsets end here.

All respect to Ajax for reaching the Quarter Final against the odds and for some of their performances to get to this Stage. However this may be just a step too far despite the draw in Bayern Munich and win in Real Madrid and I will back Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The First Leg was a real tactical battle between Pep Guardiola and Mauricio Pochettino, although I do think some of the criticism of the former was unwarranted. Of course he had to expect that Manchester City lost the First Leg, but it was almost a perfect performance in which Guardiola's team missed a penalty and were punished for one lapse of concentration.

A lack of an away goal is an issue here, but I think Manchester City will still be confident having had 3 straight wins over Tottenham Hotspur before the defeat last week. They were arguably the better team and Manchester City have won 12 in a row at home where they are not conceding too many goals.

It does feel like another tactical battle will develop as Tottenham Hotspur look to use the pace of the likes of Heung-Min Son and Lucas Moura to get the better of Manchester City. They will be looking to sit in and defend effectively and Mauricio Pochettino will be very much aware of how crucial an away goal could be for his team.

Pep Guardiola will know the same and, unlike twelve months ago, I don't think he will be pushing his team for the fast start they needed to try and overturn the 3-0 deficit they had at the same stage against Liverpool last season. This time I think the manager will be looking for control and making sure his players are concentrated defensively.

Harry Kane's absence is a blow, but not a fatal one for Tottenham Hotspur. I do think the potential absence of Dele Alli coupled with Kane's absence could be a blow and Manchester City can overturn the First Leg deficit.

The home team have not been conceding too many goals at the Etihad Stadium since the three conceded to Crystal Palace back in December and I think the first priority here will be to keep a clean sheet. Pep Guardiola will always believe his team have at least one goal in them so this feels like a fixture that could potentially be balanced for a while with my selection being Manchester City to win with a clean sheet.


Porto v Liverpool Pick: It will take an almost perfect performance from Porto if they are going to overturn the deficit from the First Leg and move into the Champions League Semi Final at the expense of Liverpool. The 2-0 away defeat makes it very difficult to imagine they can do that, but Porto did create enough chances to believe they can cause problems for their opponents.

Porto have been strong at home in recent games and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games here in the Champions League. However none of the players and fans would have forgotten the exception in that run which was the 0-5 defeat to Liverpool in the Last 16 fourteen months ago.

The home team will have to take chances at some point and I think Liverpool are going to be able to exploit those on the counter attack. The visitors have to find the balance of trying to manage this fixture to conserve some energy for big games coming up, but they can't afford to allow Porto to build some momentum especially with a relatively poor away record in the Champions League.

The counter attack is going to be very important for Liverpool and I think they are good enough to win on the day, although Porto can play a part too with the chances they were able to create in the First Leg. If both teams show even a little more composure I think they will be able to combine for a Second Leg that features three or more goals on the night and that is going to be my recommendation for this fixture.

My worry would be that Liverpool score first and knock the stuffing out of their hosts and the remainder of the fixture is played at a light tempo, but both teams have looked like they are capable of scoring goals when they go forward against the other and I do think three or more will be shared out.


Chelsea v Slavia Prague Pick: The First Leg in the Czech Republic was quite a tight and competitive affair, but Chelsea's win in Prague has given them the edge and I would expect them to make it through to the Semi Final of the Europa League.

The importance of the competition may have increased after the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday, but Maurizio Sarri has long been taking it seriously and Chelsea players have enjoyed their experiences in the competition. Chelsea have won all 5 Europa League games played at Stamford Bridge this season and they have scored three or more goals in their last 4 as they have been able to make serene progression through the draw.

I would expect them to have too much for a Slavia Prague team that have just hit a poor patch of form with 2 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. Slavia Prague have also been beaten in half of their 6 away European ties this season and I do think the pressure will be on them to get forward to try and get back into the tie which can give Chelsea the chance to counter attack and finish them off.

I can see that happening in the second half as Slavia Prague begin to have to take risks and Chelsea may be able to win the Second Leg by a slightly wider margin than the First Leg. This feels like a fixture Chelsea will be able to win by a couple of goals on the day and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Napoli v Arsenal Pick: Any time a team wins 2-0 at home in a European Knock Out tie there is no doubting the very strong position they have put themselves in, but this Arsenal team are vulnerable on their travels and Unai Emery may regret not seeing his team take more of the chances that came their way last week.

Regret will also be on the mind of Carlo Ancelotti as Napoli missed some late chances to earn an away goal to take back home and now his team are going to have to play an almost perfect game to get back into this one.

A single Arsenal goal is going to put a lot of pressure on Napoli to find the goals to get out of the tie, but the confidence will come from 4 wins in 5 European fixtures played here this season. They have kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 games including in both of the Europa League Knock Out ties they have played and Napoli will believe a vulnerable Arsenal defence can be exposed.

Ultimately I think they are going to have to take chances and that will give Arsenal an opportunity to at least grab one away goal which should be enough to take them through. However, I think Napoli may be good enough to find the win on the day and I will back them to win a fixture containing two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Juventus to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.45 Bet Victor
Porto-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Napoli to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (March 5-7)

We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.

Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.

The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.


This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.

Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.

They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.

It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.

While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.

Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.

At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.

In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.

My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.

You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.

However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.

They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.

This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.

Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.

It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.

The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.

I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.


Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.

There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.

That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.

Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.

However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.

It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.

Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.

I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.


Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.

That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.

Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.

That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.

The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.

Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.

10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.

The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.


Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.

That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.

It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.

The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.

It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.

Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.

Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.


Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.

Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.

In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.

Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.

In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.


Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.

In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.

For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.

It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.

With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.

Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.

I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.

You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.


Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.

For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.

It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.

Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.

Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.

They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.

With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (May 1-3)

The Champions League and Europa League Finals will be set by the end of this week as we enter the final month of the 2017/18 season in the big European Leagues.

Most of the ties look to be balanced going into the Second Legs to be played this week, but I think the teams in the better positions are all eventually going to find their way through to the Final. I do think there may be a couple of twists and turns first though.

On Friday we will move onto another weekend in the Premier League so there will be a thread for those Weekend Picks by Friday afternoon, but the games are running down now.


Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Pick: After losing 1-2 in the Quarter Final in the home Leg thirteen months ago, I didn't hold out a lot of hope for Bayern Munich to turn things around against Real Madrid. They actually managed to force extra time in that tie before being undone thanks to a late Arturo Vidal sending off and the players have to head to the Spanish capital with some belief they can turn this one around.

Injuries are really affecting the Bayern Munich squad which is a major concern for them, but there is still plenty of quality in the starting line up and I can't imagine they finish with as little composure as they did last week in Munich.

I also can't put my finger on this Real Madrid team despite winning the last two Champions League titles. On some days they have looked very good, but on others they have flattered to deceive although the bottom line is they continue to do just enough to make it through the Rounds.

The lead from the First Leg does make Real Madrid strong favourites to make it through to the Final, but I do think Bayern Munich are going to play a big part here and certainly won't roll over for the home team.

Picking a winner isn't straight forward simply because I do think Bayern Munich can replicate the performance from last season when they won 1-2 here in the Second Leg of their Quarter Final despite losing 1-2 at home in the First Leg.

The layers are anticipating goals with the over 2.5 goals option very short and that is no surprise when you think the last 3 and 8 of the last 9 have seen three or more goals shared out by these teams.

I do think we can get one more goal if the Real Madrid and Bayern Munich strikers are showing composure in front of goal that they do usually produce. It is a big Semi Final though which adds to the pressure when the chances come up, while the teams may not take too many chances if we get to 1-2 for the fourth consecutive time these teams have played.

In most other situations you have to think one of the teams are taking chances which could leave spaces ready to be exploited. I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least three goals on Tuesday, but it may be worth the play to look for one more at odds against.


Roma v Liverpool Pick: There were some unsavoury scenes ahead of the Liverpool-Roma Semi Final First Leg which has taken away some of the satisfaction Liverpool would have had from their performance on the field.

A dominant 5-2 win in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg should be good enough for Liverpool to make it through to their first Final in the competition since 2007.

Some doubt will have been raised by the two late goals conceded by the English side, while the news that Zeljko Buvac has left the club for a short period is another blow to Liverpool. I don't anticipate it being a big enough issue for Liverpool to find themselves in the same predicament as Barcelona did in the Champions League Quarter Final because the situation feels much more comfortable for Liverpool.

Roma played really well in Barcelona despite the 4-1 loss and that gave them a confidence to take into their Second Leg, but this time they are perhaps feeling fortunate to have any chance in this Semi Final Second Leg. The defending was frankly awful at Anfield and a team chasing goals are likely to leave some spaces for the speedy Liverpool attack to exploit.

I simply can't see Liverpool failing to score in Rome and I think that would be a huge body blow for Roma to try and recover from. As well as they have played at home in the Champions League throughout this season, keeping Liverpool from scoring here is arguably the biggest challenge the home team would have faced.

It would be a surprise if Roma don't at least take more care defensively in this one, but at some point there will be spaces for Liverpool to exploit and that makes this a difficult game to read.

Riding out the early storm is going to be key for Liverpool but even if they do fall behind in the opening ten minutes they showed at Manchester City in the Quarter Final that they will get their opportunities anyway. Roma showed enough going forward to think they will create chances too, but barring a complete turnaround in their defensive schemes I don't see the clean sheet which has been key to their run to the Semi Final.

After seven goals were shared out at Anfield, there could be a few more scored on Wednesday and I will back four or more to be the final tally.


Atletico Madrid v Arsenal Pick: The late Antoine Griezmann goal in the Emirates Stadium has put Atletico Madrid in pole position to make it through to the Europa League Semi Final.

Arsenal will be kicking themselves for not taking advantage of their visitors being reduced to ten men for 80 plus minutes of the First Leg and now they have to find a way to breach this Atletico Madrid at least once to give themselves a chance of moving through to the Final.

That is a big challenge against a team who have kept 11 clean sheets in a row in all competitions and I imagine Diego Simeone will be making sure Atletico Madrid are hard to beat in this one. Having the prospect of being able to go through with a goalless draw means Atletico Madrid are unlikely to take too many risks in this one and instead focus on making sure they don't allow Arsenal a way back into the tie.

The Gunners haven't found scoring goals a big problem, but rarely would have come up against a unit as well organised as Atletico Madrid. And I am not sure Arsene Wenger will be too disappointed if his side are still goalless with 20 minutes left of this tie with a single goal being enough to really turn the tie in Arsenal's favour.

I can imagine a tight Second Leg developing with Atletico Madrid making sure they don't leave too many gaps behind them. They are the more likely winners with Arsenal likely to make a mistake at the back which has been a feature of their season, but backing one of these teams, at least, to fail to score looks an intriguing price.

Atletico Madrid's home record is very impressive in terms of clean sheets and I don't think they will take too many risks to allow Arsenal to erase the away goal Atletico picked up in North London last week.

Chelsea did score twice here in the Champions League Group Stage, but the previous 3 English visitors had not scored against Atletico Madrid. This Arsenal team doesn't look as strong as previous English teams to play in this part of Madrid and I will look for Atletico Madrid to produce a tight Second Leg which sees goals at a premium.


Salzburg v Marseille Pick: Most fans will consider the winner of this Europa League Semi Final to be considerable underdogs in the Final regardless of whether they face Atletico Madrid or Arsenal.

Neither Marseille or Salzburg will be a part of that majority though and it is the French side who have the advantage thanks to a 2-0 win at home last week.

However it has to be said that Marseille have not been as strong when you take them away from their home Stadium and the lack of strong results on their travels in the Europa League is a slight concern. Salzburg have shown they can score goals and win games at home and they overturned a 4-2 deficit to Lazio in the Quarter Final by beating them 4-1 at home and that after going 0-1 down in the Second Leg.

Salzburg showed in Marseille that they have some quality football up to the final third, but they were perhaps not creating as many chances as they would have liked. Even then they had opportunities to score a priceless away goal and so they will feel they can put Marseille under some pressure in the Second Leg.

The overall away form of Marseille has perhaps not been the best, but they seem to have rounded into some form of late and will believe they can play a part here. They should find spaces on the counter attack much like Lazio did before Salzburg overwhelmed them and the Second Leg could be an entertaining game of football.

Both teams should have their moments, but picking a winner isn't easy with the situation meaning Salzburg could potentially blow a winning position if they are chasing the fixture. Instead I will look for the two teams to combine for one goal more than last week when the chances did come for both Marseille and Salzburg.

It could also be a game in which Salzburg come close to turning the tie around completely, but I will look for three or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid-Bayern Munich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid-Arsenal Both Teams NOT To Score @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 10-12)

Has anyone in red come down from the high of the Manchester derby on Saturday?

It was one thing preventing Manchester City winning the Premier League title at the expense of Manchester United, but the fightback from 2-0 down at half time in a 2-3 win will set Manchester United up for a fine end to the season.

The attacking football on display in the second half was night and day from what was seen in the first half and Manchester City have to be rocking mentally ahead of their Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Liverpool. Being 3-0 down from the First Leg won't help, and it does feel like Manchester City's season will peter out if they are unable to turn around this Champions League tie on Tuesday.

I remember how that used to feel as a Manchester United fan.

In the two seasons after winning the treble in 1999 Manchester United dominated the Premier League and won the title at a canter, but the losses to Real Madrid in 2000 and Bayern Munich in 2001 in the Champions League Quarter Finals were frustrating for both the fans and the players and ended the season abruptly from an emotional point of view.

That is going to be the case for Manchester City fans and players if they are beaten by Liverpool in the Champions League Quarter Final and some may also suggest an underachieving season despite winning two trophies.


The draw for the Semi Final in the Champions League and the Europa League will take place on Friday this week, but first we have to complete the Quarter Final ties. The four Champions League ties look very one-sided after the First Leg results, while the Europa League ties look like producing three clear winners already too.

That might mean less drama this week, but football has a funny way of surprising us when we think we have all of the answers and it could still be a memorable week in both competitions.


Manchester City v Liverpool Pick: Last week was a stunning performance from Liverpool in the first half which has given them a huge advantage in this Champions League Quarter Final. The absence of an away goal for Manchester City means they are a significant underdog to get through this tie, although the layers are confident they can salvage some pride by winning the Second Leg.

You can't deny that Liverpool have matched up well with Manchester City with the speed on the counter attack exposing the spaces that Pep Guardiola's team do leave behind.

They may also be playing them at a time of the season when Manchester City have been most vulnerable having conceded three times in back to back losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. The defeat to Manchester United would have really concerned Guardiola as his team were 2-0 up and in complete control of the match at half time but capitulated after United got back into it in the second half.

It is hard to imagine a situation where Liverpool are not able to add to the three goals they scored in the First Leg and that would make it very, very difficult for Manchester City to turn the tables in this one.

However they did show against Manchester United that Manchester City can create plenty of chances at home. Better finishing on that day would have seen Manchester City win that fixture by half time, but the concern is how poorly they have defended in the last couple of games.

Manchester City do have the quality to score the three goals they need, but Liverpool will be a massive threat on the counter attack. Ultimately I can't see Liverpool not scoring here and I think this is a fixture that will produce goals.

Last week I picked four or more goals to be shared out and had 60 minutes for one more goal to be scored. However I will go back to the same market and look for Manchester City to be a little better this week in front of their own fans, even if I think they will come up short.

Manchester City will play one way and that should leave Liverpool with chances on the counter attack and I will back at least four goals to be shared out.


Roma v Barcelona Pick: The First Leg has effectively taken this tie away from Roma but they will want to show some pride when the Second Leg takes place in front of their own fans in the Italian capital.

One problem with being down by such a large margin is keeping the fans involved in the tie when it looks like the gap is too big to bridge.

However it should also means the Roma players can perform with some freedom with nothing to lose against their more illustrious visitors.

Barcelona might just have put their remaining focus on the Champions League this season with the Spanish title almost in the bag and a place in the Copa Del Rey Final secured. However this Barcelona team does not look as strong as the one that won the Champions League in 2015 and they have struggled for performances and results away from the Nou Camp.

On the other hand Roma have played well at home in the Champions League and have won their last 3 ties here.

My fear for Roma is the fact that they are chasing this Second Leg which could see them picked off by a Barcelona team that still contains Lionel Messi. That could easily be the outcome of this one, but Roma have shown they are tough to beat at home and Barcelona have struggled for wins away from home in the Champions League over the last thirteen months.

Roma's recent form in Italy has been disappointing too, but they may just be able to challenge Barcelona in this Second Leg and give them something to think about. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap should give us a run with Barcelona not as strong as they once were, although I am looking for Roma to show plenty of pride here and not chase the big deficit they are in.


Bayern Munich v Sevilla Pick: The First Leg was the best chance for Sevilla to have a real chance of making it through to an unexpected Semi Final place in the Champions League, but defeat means they have a mountain to climb in the Second Leg.

The performance by Sevilla was a good one but ultimately the quality Bayern Munich had was too much for them and I think it is going to be much more difficult for Sevilla to try and impose themselves here.

Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun at home and at some point Sevilla have to try and come out and score the two goals they need.

You also can't ignore the fact that Sevilla have not been as strong away from home as they have at home and this is one of the toughest European venues for any team to visit. Bayern Munich have a really intimidating home record and the goals being scored should see them ease through to the Semi Final of the Champions League yet again.

They are being asked to cover a big handicap in the Second Leg, but Bayern Munich are capable of putting Sevilla to the sword in front of their own fans. Even in the Champions League Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals in home wins and I think they are capable of winning this one by a comfortable margin to make a statement to the remaining teams in this competition.

Sevilla impressed at Manchester United, but this is a much different test for them and they have taken some heavy losses away from home. If Vincenzo Montella decides to send his team out with 'damage limitation' in mind it could be more difficult for Bayern Munich, but I would still expect the German Champions to be too strong on the day and win well.


Real Madrid v Juventus Pick: When you have a lead like the one Real Madrid have from the First Leg it is easy for players to lose some of their intensity in the Second Leg of a Knock Out tie.

That has to be the biggest concern for Zinedine Zidane in this Champions League tie although Juventus have to be feeling a little sorry for themselves too.

Much is going to depend on the Juventus attitude and you have to believe the veterans in the squad will be urging their team mates to play with plenty of pride.

However Juventus have found Spanish opposition very difficult in the last few years and have lost by three goal margins to Real Madrid (twice) and Barcelona in the last twelve months. They may also be more focused on the Italian title race now they have a huge mountain to climb in this Second Leg and Real Madrid may be looking to make another statement to potential Semi Final opponents.

Cristiano Ronaldo is in magnificent form in 2018 and he will likely lead the line again, while Real Madrid don't have to rest too many players as none are on the edge of a suspension. That should mean Real Madrid are able to dominate the Second Leg with their strong home record in the Champions League and I think Juventus could capitulate for a second time here.

Juventus were fortunate at Wembley Stadium when being outplayed by Tottenham Hotspur before stunning their hosts, but I don't think this experienced Real Madrid team are caught out.

It is tough to back a team on the handicap when you think of the lead they have, but I do think Real Madrid can win this one by a comfortable margin too and move through to the Champions League Semi Final in impressive form.


CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Pick: The First Leg has almost certainly put this Quarter Final tie out of the reach of CSKA Moscow, but they will still want to finish with some pride in the Second Leg in front of their own fans.

That won't be easy against an Arsenal team who will play a strong team in the Europa League as they look to work their way back into the Champions League and one who have the quality in forward areas to expose a slow CSKA Moscow defence.

The Gunners showed that in the First Leg as they hammered CSKA Moscow in the first half and I think they can get the better of them again.

Arsenal have won both away ties in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds so far and CSKA Moscow have been a little erratic at home in European competition. CSKA Moscow are also distracted by the battle for the top three in their domestic League and won't have been helped by the schedule makers which meant they played their last League game on Monday evening.

It may be the case that this game actually means more to Arsenal than CSKA Moscow and I think that could help the Premier League club earn another victory.

With the lead from the First Leg there is some doubts about how much Arsenal will push for the victory, but I do think they will have chances to expose CSKA Moscow on the counter attack throughout this one. The likes of Manchester United, Basel and Lyon have all won here in Europe this season and CSKA Moscow were also beaten at home on Monday night in the League and I think Arsenal can become the latest to do that.

At odds against Arsenal can be backed for a win in the Second Leg to progress to the Semi Final in comfortable fashion.


Marseille v Leipzig Pick: Both Marseille and Leipzig will understand the importance of moving through to the Europa League Semi Final as they chase a place in the Champions League for next season.

Both teams have a real battle on their hands to do that domestically so keeping their chances alive to win the Europa League is important to both teams in a tie which is in the balance.

Last week Leipzig beat Marseille 1-0 at home and that could be a huge advantage in the Second Leg which is likely to be another competitive match. An away goal would be very difficult for Marseille to overcome, but they can fall back on the fact they have won 6 of their 7 home Europa League games this season.

On the other hand Leipzig have won 2 of their last 3 away European ties including a win in Monaco which will be something they look to replicate. That should give them confidence, but Leipzig did have to play their League game on Monday night and didn't rest their key players for this Second Leg.

The schedule could play a part in this one and I do think this is going to be a really competitive fixture with very little between them.

However home advantage could prove to be the difference and I would not be all that surprised if this tie needs extra time to determine a winner. Marseille's recent form has not been the best, but they have performed well in the Europa League and I will back them to win this one.

I will take Marseille on the Asian Handicap because an away goal for Leipzig could really leave Marseille open on the counter attack. The Asian Handicap will return half the stake in the event of a draw too but I do favour Marseille enough to back them with some confidence.


Salzburg v Lazio Pick: The First Leg was a brilliant game of football with the pendulum swinging one way and then the other before Lazio were able to just earn the edge over Salzburg.

A 4-2 win means Lazio have a decent lead to take to Austria for the Second Leg, but they will remember how dangerous Salzburg were in Italy and will have to expect the same here.

For Salzburg they will still believe they can turn this tie around with the goals they have been able to produce at home, although the challenge will be finding the balance to prevent Lazio from extending their lead.

Lazio have scored at least twice in 4 straight away games in all competitions which makes them a dangerous team to take too many chances against and I can imagine this Second Leg has a similar feel to the First Leg. Both teams are likely going to give it a go and that will likely leave spaces for the other to try and exploit and both teams should play their part in this one.

The onus isn't on Lazio to get forward, but they have shown the quality to be dangerous on the break and Salzburg have to go looking for goals at some point. These teams could combine for another high scoring game as Lazio try to match Roma by reaching a European Semi Final and I will back at least four goals to be shared out on Thursday in what could be another cracking tie.


Sporting Lisbon v Atletico Madrid Pick: Scoring after one minute was the perfect start to this Europa League Quarter Final for Atletico Madrid and they dominated Sporting Lisbon for the majority of the First Leg to move into a commanding position in the tie.

The defeat Barcelona suffered from a really strong position may just have focused the players a little more to make sure they earn their spot in the Europa League Semi Final and I fully expect Atletico Madrid to do that.

The onus is on Sporting Lisbon to get forward and try and get back into this tie, but they looked some way short of the quality that Atletico Madrid bring to the table. It was almost like Atletico Madrid were content with their 2-0 lead and they could move up another gear if they needed to and I think that will likely be the way the Second Leg goes too.

This time Sporting Lisbon have to take a few more chances which should leave more gaps for Atletico Madrid to exploit and I think the Spanish side can record a third straight away win in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds.

Sporting Lisbon have to be respected for the way they have played at home in Europe this season with some tough performances against the likes of Barcelona and Juventus. However this is Knock Out Football and Sporting Lisbon have to take a few more chances in this one and I think Atletico Madrid win here to move through to the Semi Final with relative comfort.

MY PICKS: Manchester City-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Roma + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marseille - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg-Lazio Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (March 13-15)

The Quarter Final line up in the Champions League and Europa League will be set this week and the draw for the last eight of both competitions will take place on Friday.

Bayern Munich are the fifth team who will make up the eight in the Champions League barring a stunning defeat in Istanbul, but the other three ties are finely balanced this week.

The Europa League Last 16 Second Leg ties are mainly still up for grabs, although the two favourites Atletico Madrid and Arsenal look to be in very strong positions after big wins last week.

It is a big week for all of the teams involved before another weekend of domestic football ahead of a two week break for the top teams around Europe during which time the final international break of the season takes place.


Manchester United v Sevilla Pick: The goalless away draw in the Champions League is not the best result for teams these days considering the importance of earning away goals in this competition, but Manchester United are in a position where a win at Old Trafford will earn them a spot in the Quarter Final.

After wins over Chelsea and Liverpool in consecutive Premier League games at Old Trafford, Jose Mourinho has to believe his side can continue the momentum built up in recent games.

Defensively Manchester United look a tough team to break down and there is an attacking threat which has been shown in their recent wins.

A long unbeaten run at Old Trafford in European competition and 3 wins in the Champions League Group Stage gives Manchester United the edge, but they can't overlook a Sevilla team with plenty of European experience. However Sevilla have been in mixed form and they will have to show a lot of character to get something from this Second Leg.

You have to credit Sevilla for having lost 1 of their last 6 away games in all competitions, but this is a team who did have some difficulty in the Champions League Group Stage. The 2-2 draw at Anfield shows they are capable of picking up results unexpectedly, but Sevilla were outplayed for large parts of that game and were crushed 5-1 at Spartak Moscow.

Twelve months ago Sevilla were beaten comfortably by Leicester City in the Second Leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie which sent them out of this competition.

I can see this Second Leg being a little tense at times with the importance of the away goals not lost on the Old Trafford crowd, but Manchester United look to be in good enough form to get the better of Sevilla. They have won 5 in a row at Old Trafford in all competitions and Manchester United have scored at least twice in all of those wins.

I expect that will be good enough to see off Sevilla in the Second Leg of this Champions League tie. The Spanish side have not been as strong a traveller as they have been at home, despite a recent run of decent results, and Sevilla have lost on their last 4 visits to England while they have conceded at least twice in their last 5 visits to England.

Backing Manchester United to win and cover the Asian Handicap looks to be the right way to go with this Second Leg.


Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: This is a tough Second Leg to call with reasons to feel that both Roma and Shakhtar Donetsk can earn the necessary result to move through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.

With an away goal and only a single goal deficit, Roma will have to feel they can do enough at home to beat Shakhtar Donetsk and make their way through to the last eight of the premier European competition for the first time in a decade.

On the other hand, Shakhtar Donetsk have had a lot more recent successes in European competition which could see them have the edge over their hosts who have to deal with the pressure of expectation.

My feeling is that Roma will do enough to win the Second Leg, but I would not be hugely surprised if extra time is needed in this Champions League tie. Roma have played well at home in the Champions League with wins over Chelsea and Qarabag and earning a draw with Atletico Madrid, while they also kept clean sheets in all 3 of those games.

Recent home form has been erratic to say the least with Roma losing 4 of their last 7 here in all competitions, but they have won 2 of their last 3 to try and turn things back around. Roma are also hosting a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and who were beaten 3-0 at Napoli in the Group Stage.

There is talent in the Shakhtar Donetsk ranks which makes them very dangerous in this one and I do think they will make life very tough for Roma. Shakhtar Donetsk have won all 5 games coming out of the Winter Break in the Ukraine and they have scored three times in their last couple of away wins, while they also won all 5 away games in the Europa League last season.

The layers understand the tie is finely balanced with both teams a pick 'em to Qualify for the Quarter Final. I think it will be very close too, but Roma have home advantage and a little bit of momentum with a couple of fine wins over Napoli and Torino coming into this one.

That may be enough to secure a win on Tuesday and one that could take them through to the Quarter Final. Shakhtar Donetsk have the talent to be very dangerous too, but I will back Roma on the Asian Handicap in this one.


Besiktas v Bayern Munich Pick: There were a number of Champions League Last 16 Second Legs which have proven to be dead rubbers after dominant First Leg wins. Last week we saw both Liverpool and Manchester City fail to win Second Leg ties after strong First Leg wins and I do think Bayern Munich could potentially fall into the same trap.

Unlike Liverpool and Manchester City, Bayern Munich have to visit Besiktas in the Second Leg and they may decide to rest some of their key names for more important games coming up.

It would be foolish to play any of the players who are a booking away from a suspension which would mean Bayern Munich are missing Sebastian Rudy, Joshua Kimmich and Robert Lewandowski, while Jupp Heynckes may also give some other fringe players an opportunity.

That will give Besiktas a chance to secure a morale boosting win in the Second Leg as they bid to redeem themselves after the poor result in the First Leg. The early sending off hurt Besiktas that day and they have been tough to beat in Istanbul in European competition in recent years.

The motivation of playing one of the European giants at home should be enough for Besiktas to really give this a good go. It is an opportunity for Besiktas if Bayern Munich make the wholesale changes that are expected and the away team needed late goals to win at Celtic and Anderlecht in the Champions League Group Stage.

Besiktas are better than both and I think they can play with the freedom of just taking this as a one off game. I will back the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap to at least avoid a big defeat and I do think Besiktas are capable of avoiding defeat against a demotivated visitor that could be looking ahead to the weekend fixture at Leipzig.


Barcelona v Chelsea Pick: There will be some regrets in the Chelsea squad that they did not manage to earn a lead in the First Leg of this Champions League Last 16 tie. They hit the woodwork twice at Stamford Bridge and also had the lead while containing Barcelona before a couple of mistakes at the back allowed Lionel Messi to equalise and leave West London with a 1-1 draw.

I don't think anyone will be surprised that Barcelona are a big favourite to win the tie and also a strong favourite to win the Second Leg at the Nou Camp. They have won 20 of their last 22 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League and also have won 18 of 20 games here this season.

That's a record that would intimidate the very best teams in Europe when you HAVE to score in the Nou Camp to have a chance to move past Barcelona. It is a tougher task for Chelsea who have lost 4 straight away games in all competitions and who have lacked some confidence in recent weeks.

Antonio Conte will likely employ similar tactics to the ones used at Stamford Bridge where he will want his Chelsea team to set up to contain the spaces Barcelona can operate in. If Andres Iniesta is ruled out, it may make things a little more comfortable in blocking the supply lines to the likes of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi.

The counter attack is where Chelsea will be dangerous and this is a team that can defend well enough to at least prevent Barcelona from overrunning them. The recent away performances may not have shown the defensive strength that Chelsea will need, but Barcelona have hit a tough patch in front of goal.

Barcelona had scored at least twice in 16 straight games at the Nou Camp, but they have scored one or fewer in 3 of their last 4 here. On the other hand they have shown defensive toughness of their own and Barcelona have conceded just 2 goals in 10 home games in all competitions.

At some stage Barcelona have to expect Chelsea to come out and try and score the away goal they need, but I think Antonio Conte will play this in a manner that Italian Football fans will respect. Chelsea don't need to score in the first 10 minutes of this game so I expect Conte will look to prevent Barcelona from taking control of the match by keeping things tight and perhaps bringing some tension into the Second Leg.

As long as this game is 0-0, Conte will feel Chelsea have an opportunity to win the tie and I think I will go against the layers and look for two or fewer goals to be shared out. That would have been a winner in 3 of the last 4 Barcelona home games and Chelsea have shown they can limit the opportunities their opponents can create in the First Leg.

My concern has to be the poor recent performances from Chelsea, especially away from home, but they are similar to Atletico Madrid who recently lost 1-0 in the Nou Camp. I do think Conte can help Chelsea keep things tight going into the second half and I will back the under market in this one.

Of course an early Barcelona game can change the entire complexion of the tie and force this fixture to open up very quickly, but I think it will go the same way as the First Leg and be a tight game with little between the teams. At odds against, I will look for Chelsea to do enough to frustrate their hosts and give themselves every chance of a huge upset against a Barcelona team that isn't as strong as recent versions of their team.


Athletic Bilbao v Marseille Pick: Last week I picked there being at least three goals in the First Leg between these two teams, but even I was surprised by the incredibly quick start made by Marseille  which has given them the platform to take a 3-1 lead into the Second Leg.

The tie might look very much in their favour, but Marseille have shown they are not quite as strong away from home as they are in front of their own fans in the Europa League this season. They have lost 3 of their last 4 away Europa League games and Athletic Bilbao have shown they have plenty of quality at home having won 8 of their last 10 home Europa League games.

However it can't be ignored that they have also lost 2 of their last 4 in the Europa League at home, including a 1-2 defeat to Spartak Moscow in the Last 32 Second Leg, and so I do think both teams will have their opportunities in this one.

At some point Athletic Bilbao will have to take a few more chances which could leave gaps for Marseille to exploit, while the whole game could open up very much like the First Leg if we do see another early goal for either side.

Both teams do have goals in their squad and I will look for at least three in the Second Leg as I expected to come in the First Leg.


Dynamo Kiev v Lazio Pick: After coming from a goal behind, Lazio will be very disappointed that they have not been able to head to the Ukraine with a lead from the First Leg. The game in Rome came alive in the second half as Lazio and Dynamo Kiev played out a 2-2 draw with all four goals scored after half time, and that scoreline leaves potential for another entertaining clash when they meet again on Thursday.

The task is simple for Lazio as they have to get forward and score here, but that should mean Dynamo Kiev are able to employ similar tactics as they used against Lazio last week.

However Lazio have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League and that could lead to an open game with the situation dictating one of these teams will have to take chances at some point in this fixture.

Dynamo Kiev did manage to hold AEK Athens to a goalless draw here in the Last 32 which helped them get past the Greek side on away goals, but Lazio are a better team than that. They may have lost 1-0 at Steaua Bucharest in the Last 32 First Leg, but Lazio had scored at least twice in their 3 away Group games in this competition and Dynamo Kiev had not kept a clean sheet in 6 home European games before the draw with AEK Athens.

The Ukrainian team have usually scored plenty of home goals in Europe though and I think both teams will have their successes in another high scoring game.


Zenit St Petersburg v Leipzig Pick: This was another game where I picked at least three goals to be scored in the First Leg and once again I am going back to the same market as I am in the Athletic Bilbao and Marseille tie.

Anyone who watched the First Leg would have appreciated the attacking display of football that Leipzig produced and they may be disappointed to only lead 2-1 on aggregate. They created some big chances to extend that lead before Zenit St Petersburg earned a priceless away goal, but Leipzig are unlikely to change their game plan when they head to Russia for the Second Leg.

They may want to be a little more cautious when facing a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been much stronger when they have played at home. They have scored at least twice in their last 4 home Europa League ties and overcame a single goal deficit in the Last 32 when crushing Celtic 3-0 here.

Zenit St Petersburg have shown they can use plenty of goals at home, but Leipzig have to be respected too having scored four goals in Monaco and three goals in Napoli. Leipzig won both of those games and have shown they can overcome defensive vulnerabilities by getting on the front foot and it would be a surprise if they don't play with a similar ambition in this one.

I think the teams could combine for another game with at least three goals shared out as both look capable of hurting the other when they get forward. I really think the tie in on the knife edge here and either team could progress to the Quarter Final at the end of this one, while extra time and penalties can't be ruled out either.

I don't imagine Leipzig will be looking to contain their hosts and sit on the lead they have and that could lead to a pretty open game with three or more goals shared out.


Arsenal v AC Milan Pick: The scheduled opponent for Arsenal this weekend is in FA Cup action which means The Gunners can put all of their attention on this fixture which is the last game they play in March.

With the players away on international duty a week after this game is in the books, Arsene Wenger would be very foolish to risk the ire of the fans by rotating his squad. The Europa League is clearly the focus for Arsenal the rest of the season and Wenger has to have noted the way his side almost blew a 0-3 lead against Ostersund from the First Leg when they trailed 0-2 at home in the Second Leg.

Neither Wenger or the players will want to make the Emirates Stadium become a tension filled environment and so I expect to see as strong a team as Arsenal are able to field in this one.

In the First Leg Arsenal showed they still have far too much for this current AC Milan team who have been in fine form back in Italy, but are still some way short of the standards this famous club have produced. They have been producing some strong results at home, but the First Leg loss may mean AC Milan have turned their attention to finishing in the top four in Serie A rather than progressing further in the Europa League.

While I don't believe Gennaro Gattuso will want to see his side give up, he could rest players for the League game this weekend. It is a big ask for Milan to come to the Emirates Stadium and win by a two goal margin especially as Arsenal proved to be very dangerous on the counter attack in the San Siro seven days ago.

Arsenal have a number of players who will be very comfortable at the Europa League level and I think they have shown that with their second string team being good enough to reach the Last 16. Now I expect another fixture where Arsene Wenger picks the very best team available to him to avoid any tension on the way through to the Quarter Final and I like Arsenal to win the Second Leg at an appealing price.


Lyon v CSKA Moscow Pick: Having a First Leg lead from an away tie is clearly going to give the host of the Second Leg a big advantage, but Lyon will be the first to admit that their 0-1 lead over CSKA Moscow is not a decisive one.

They will respect the fact that CSKA Moscow had won 4 away games in the Champions League this season before their narrow defeat at Old Trafford. The same 1-2 win at Benfica and Basel would be enough for CSKA Moscow to earn their way past Lyon into the Europa League Quarter Final so the home team has to make sure they avoid any complacency.

Lyon have been playing well at home with a single loss in their last 7 games here in all competitions while they have won 4 of those games. They have also won 7 of their last 8 home Europa League games going back over the last thirteen months and Lyon are highly motivated to reach the Europa League Final which is being held in their own Stadium.

The situation is a good one for Lyon in the sense that they don't have to take risks and can look to pick off a CSKA Moscow team that have to score here. They also did look the superior team out in Moscow which will give them confidence and I can see them going in front at home and then being able to pick off their visitors as they chase a way back into the tie.

There is no doubt that Lyon will feel they can show better composure in the final third to create more opportunities at home and I will look for the home team to secure another win over CSKA Moscow. I will back Lyon to cover the Asian Handicap and pick off CSKA Moscow on the counter attack to earn a full payout with a win by a couple of goals on the night, even if a single goal win for Lyon will provide a profit here.


Salzburg v Borussia Dortmund Pick: You had to be impressed with the way Salzburg went about their work in the First Leg of this Europa League Last 16 tie and the top Austrian side are worthy of their 1-2 lead over Borussia Dortmund.

In fact better finishing may have given Salzburg an even bigger advantage in the Second Leg in front of their own fans. Even so, I do think Salzburg are capable of securing their place in the Quarter Final and I am not convinced they should be the underdog in this Second Leg.

We know Salzburg don't need to win this Second Leg to overcome Borussia Dortmund, but I think the situation is a good one for the home team. Their opponents have to come here and score twice at least and that should mean Salzburg can play this game very much like the First Leg and use the counter attack to expose the spaces Borussia Dortmund will invariably leave behind.

Borussia Dortmund are a team with goals in the side, but they were fortunate to draw at Atalanta in the Last 32 Second Leg. They looked to be going out of the Europa League that day, but managed a 1-1 draw which means Borussia Dortmund have not won any of their last 7 away European ties.

They have lost 4 of their last 6 and Dortmund are in a tough position as they need goals but have seen teams have a lot of success against them. Salzburg have been very strong at home both in Austria and in European Football and I think they are going to be very dangerous throughout this Second Leg and can win this fixture.

Salzburg are certainly a big looking price to do that, but I think Borussia Dortmund have to be respected for producing a 5 game unbeaten run away from home. We still have a chance to back Salzburg as the home underdog which means getting a start on the Asian Handicap and I will back the Austrian side to earn a positive result on their way through to the Quarter Final.

If Borussia Dortmund are chasing the game at any point, Salzburg could secure the victory for sure in this Second Leg with their speedy counter attacks causing plenty of problems in the First Leg. A bit more composure in front of goal would be nice, but I like Salzburg here with the start regardless.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas + 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lyon - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)