European Tour 2- European Darts Trophy Day 1 Picks 2026 (Friday 13th March)

Another Premier League Night has ended with Jonny Clayton picking up maximum points and he is well on his way to reaching the Play Offs in the competition he enjoys playing the most.

His participation in the European Darts Trophy is perhaps a little uncertain having played through the pain with his gout making it difficult to walk, especially with this tournament taking place in Germany and perhaps not being an ideal time to travel.

Of course the form through the first two and a half months of the 2026 season has been at such a level that Clayton would love to keep things going and he is not due out until Saturday when the Second Round is played.

Luke Humphries had a productive night in Nottingham, although one that did not end with the Nightly win even after beating Luke Littler and Gian van Veen earlier in the evening.

The Polish Open was won by Littler, but he is not involved this weekend and Luke Humphries has to be amongst the favourites, even at a time when his doubling has been letting him down.

The European Darts Trophy looks like it is wide open this week with Humphries down as a 4-1 favourite, but plenty of the big names are expected to be involved in Germany and it should be three strong days for the fans to enjoy.

The First Round will be played across two sessions on Friday before the same situation for the Second Round on Saturday.

Third Round matches will be completed in the Day Session on Sunday before the traditional ending to the European Tour events with all of the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final matches played in the Evening Session to produce the second winner on this circuit.

Later this month the Belgian Darts Open will also be played as the European Tour 3 event is scheduled to be played and so it is a very busy time for the biggest names in the PDC with Premier League Nights also to be played on Thursday over the next couple of months.

Ricky Evans & Cameron Menzies double: The Afternoon Session features a number of decent players, but there are some close matches to call and picking these two looks the best approach to take to the eight games scheduled.

Ricky Evans played pretty well at the World Championships, but he has not been able to build on that in 2026 and suffered a relatively early defeat in the UK Open.

However, he should still have enough to beat Florian Preis in the First Round, even if the latter is going to be given plenty of crowd support.

Doubling up Ricky Evans with Cameron Menzies is slightly risky when you think of some of the recent performances offered up by the latter.

A hand injury inflicted on himself has proved to be a big problem for Menzies, but he did come through a couple of Rounds at the Polish Darts Open last month and Paul Krohne may not have enough to use the crowd and land a spot in the Second Round.

Dirk van Duijvenbode & Wessel Nijman double: A double from the Evening Session puts together a couple of Dutchman who should have enough to progress into the Second Round.

Dirk van Duijvenbode has slipped to the World Number 29 position and has been very inconsistent this season, but he faces someone who is struggling much more than himself.

After a decent enough start to the season, Mario Vandenbogaerde has lost his last six matches in a row and some of those have been in close defeats.

This all adds to the mental challenges when it comes to late Legs, and DvD may have too much scoring for him at critical times in this First Round match.

A fellow Dutchman has been in fine form on the floor and Wessel Nijman had a strong run at the Polish Darts Open- there is still more to come from him and he can edge past Cristo Reyes who is a player that can make strides up the World Ranking in the weeks and months ahead.

However, Nijman looks capable of squeezing past him here in Germany in what should be a quality match to end the session.

Kai Gotthardt v Nico Springer: The best of eleven Leg format is always open for an upset or two to occur and Kai Gotthardt can back up some solid form at the UK Open by getting the better of his compatriot in Germany.

These two actually met last week in Minehead and it was Gotthardt who edged past Nico Springer, while the familiarity with this opponent should allow the underdog to settle into this First Round match.

It should be noted that Gotthardt had shown little form going into the UK Open, but those wins will have done him the world of good.

Nico Springer is very talented, but he has just hit a slump in form with three straight defeats under his belt- he has been a little inconsistent on the Tour this year and suffered an early loss at European Tour 1 last month.

This is likely going to be a close match in front of the home fans, but Kai Gotthardt looks a big price to edge through to the Saturday Second Round.

MY PICKS: Ricky Evans & Cameron Menzies Double @ 2.64 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Dirk van Duijvenbode & Wessel Nijman @ 1.82 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kai Gotthardt @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 29-37, - 2.87 Units (65 Units Staked, - 4.42% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th March)

I guess I should not have irritated the Tennis Gods by complaining about the win-loss being at 0.500 for the week after the two selections on Wednesday both fell to a defeat.

They were a touch unfortunate- Coco Gauff's match with Belinda Bencic was incredibly tight and she had actually been winning more points overall just before the Swiss player went out to serve for the match.

And an injury issue meant Brandon Nakashima was not able to maintain his serving after the first set with Ben Shelton had ended in a tie-breaker before the latter was able to pull away easily enough.

We move forward though and it is Quarter Final day in Indian Wells with all eight matches across both the ATP and WTA tournaments scheduled to be played.

Friday will then be reserved for the Women's Semi Final matches before Saturday sees the last four ATP players head out onto the court. And the tournament will come to a conclusion on Sunday with both Finals set to be played on the same day before everyone turns their attention to the Miami Masters, which begins next week.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: A dominant win over Tommy Paul has just continued Daniil Medvedev's serene progress at Indian Wells, while also maintaining the strong form he has opened with in 2025.

The hard courts have always been the surface on which Daniil Medvedev has played his best tennis, but there is little doubt that this form dipped in 2024.

At 29 years old and with a lot of years on the Tour under the legs, there will have been some thinking that Daniil Medvedev was on the slide in his career, but the early form does offer encouragement. Winning a big title in either Indian Wells or Miami would just give Medvedev some momentum to take into the clay court season, which begins in April, and the build up to the French Open.

The Quarter Final sees Daniil Medvedev take on young, improving Arthur Fils.

The Frenchman is set to move into a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament, but Arthur Fils will only be focused on winning this match and earning a spot in the Semi Final. He has had to battle for the victory in the last couple of Rounds, with both going the distance, but that should just give Arthur Fils a boost in confidence as he looks to win the second Tour meeting with Daniil Medvedev.

The first was won comfortably by Daniil Medvedev, but that was at the end of 2023 and both players are different places now.

Both players will feel they can improve on the service numbers produced in the tournament, but it does look like a tournament in which Arthur Fils is returning better than would be expected. Maintaining that will be tough, especially if the pressure is put onto the 20 year old by the Daniil Medvedev return, and the World Number 6 may just have the edge in the match.

Covering these marks can be tough, especially if a server like Arthur Fils is at his very best, but neither has been dominant behind that shot in the tournament and Daniil Medvedev's superior returning can make the difference for him.

Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Winning matches and titles will always impress and create headlines, but the manner in which Mirra Andreeva is winning her matches is really going to impress all who watch her play. A bright future has been predicted for a player who is going to be turning 18 years old at the end of next month, and it is important to see Andreeva with a good team around her to guide her during her development.

A crushing win over Elena Rybakina can only boost the confidence of the young player and she is rightly set as the favourite for this Quarter Final considering the level that has been shown all season.

Mirra Andreeva has stepped that up even further here in Indian Wells, although the veteran Elina Svitolina is going to present a significant test.

It has been a solid season for Elina Svitolina, who has been competitive in the majority of matches played and who has openly spoken about the positive support she has been receiving at Indian Wells. That has not been impacted by the fact that she has beaten three American players to reach the Quarter Final, although Elina Svitolina has needed three sets in two of the three wins produced.

The pressure will be on Elina Svitolina to serve well and she if she can build up some scoreboard pressure on the younger player, but Mirra Andreeva's returning capabilities have long been spoken about as a big part of her tennis.

Getting more out of the serve is thus leading to the wins being strung together and Mirra Andreeva is certainly looking much more confident behind that opening shot. Her 2025 numbers have improved on 2024, which is not a surprise considering we are nowhere near where Mirra Andreeva is going to look like when at her peak, and those numbers have been impressive.

She has been particularly strong here in Indian Wells having faced a single Break Point across her last two wins, and Mirra Andreeva is playing with the kind of confidence that will be tough for anyone to shake.

Elina Svitolina will try and use all of her experience to just give her opponent something to think about, but Mirra Andreeva is playing really well and has been all season, and that consistency may produce a level that is too much for the World Number 23 to deal with.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Luidmila Samsonova: The World Number 1 has become accustomed to entering the back to back WTA 1000 events on the hard courts in March with a title under her belt, but Aryna Sabalenka is not doing that this year.

Some of the recent form had been disappointing following the Australian Open Final defeat to Madison Keys, but there is no doubting the quality and the talent of the Belarusian.

Her three wins in Indian Wells have been very strong and it will take a big effort to stop Aryna Sabalenka whenever she enters an event on the hard courts.

That challenge is taken up by Luidmila Samsonova, a player who has proven to be dangerous to Sabalenka when performing at her best. That is underlined by the fact that Samsonova has beaten Aryna Sabalenka twice on the hard courts and as recently as Montreal 2023, although last year the World Number 1 earned a crushing win on the hard courts of Cincinnati.

Early 2025 form had been very inconsistent from Luidmila Samsonova and she entered Indian Wells with a 6-6 record and average numbers.

However, three wins here will have boosted her confidence and any player that crushes Jasmine Paolini deserves a lot of respect.

Luidmila Samsonova is going to have to serve well- getting plenty of first serves in play will help her cause no end, but the second serve also needs to be effective enough and not allow an aggressive returner to get on top of the rallies in what should be a big hitting Quarter Final.

Anything less will make things difficult for Samsonova, who won just five games in that loss to Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati, especially with the way the top Seed has been serving so far this week. Covering won't be easy if the World Number 25 is serving at around 65% of first serves being made, but a dip below 60% will give Sabalenka an opportunity and she is playing well enough to make that count.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 3-5, - 2.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 31.50% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 13th March)

One more game from Jasmine Paolini and it would been another positive day at Indian Wells, but instead it is a day when the swing has been the other way.

At least Caroline Wozniacki avoided the collapse in the first set that might have swung the match entirely in the other direction as she allowed a 5-1 lead disappear and headed for a medical timeout.

Fortunately she rallied and it was Angelique Kerber who was struggling by the end of the match after her strongest week back on the Tour.

We head towards the business end of the tournament and this looks to be the last really busy day at Indian Wells.

There are some very good looking matches heading out to the court and the Tennis Picks from the day can be read below.

Tommy Paul - 4.5 games v Luca Nardi: Not every Lucky Loser will be able to make the kind of impact Luca Nardi has had at the Indian Wells Masters and his upset against Novak Djokovic means the Italian will crack the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time.

He was a huge underdog in that Third Round match, which is no surprise, and there has been very little evidence from the hard court tennis played that Luca Nardi was going to be capable of competing with Novak Djokovic, never mind actually beating him.

Before the main draw in Indian Wells, the highest Ranked players Luca Nardi had faced this year was World Number 112 David Goffin and World Number 121 Sumit Nagal and the Italian managed to win just one set across those two matches.

Now he has beaten Novak Djokovic and Zhizhen Zhang, both in three sets, and Luca Nardi will be hoping to avoid an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance in the Fourth Round.

He is not helped by the fact he is facing Tommy Paul who has been enjoying a very strong 2024 season.

The American has won a title in Dallas and reached the Final in Delray Beach and Tommy Paul has looked very good in winning his opening two matches at Indian Wells. Those victories have been against players significantly Ranked higher than the one he will be facing in the Fourth Round and Tommy Paul has been serving and returning effectively in this tournament.

Tommy Paul's hard court numbers in 2024 have been very impressive and it will be tough for Luca Nardi to match the efforts of beating Novak Djokovic.

Serving well will help, but Paul is likely going to keep the Lucky Loser under pressure and that can give the World Number 17 an opportunity to wear him down.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Holger Rune: A bye and a walkover helped Holger Rune through to the Third Round where he was a solid winner over Lorenzo Musetti.

The World Number 7 will be well aware that the challenge increases greatly in this Fourth Round against Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells Masters Champion and a player looking to close back in on a place in the top ten of the World Rankings.

He won the title in Delray Beach and reached the Australian Open Quarter Final, but there has long been a feeling that Taylor Fritz should be destined for even more. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for the top American and this season Fritz has been backing that up with stronger returning.

The two wins in Indian Wells had to be expected and, much like Holger Rune, this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent.

Holger Rune may not look like a player with a huge serve, but he is very good at protecting this shot and is a better server than some may think. The problem this season has been the lack of consistent production when it comes to the return of serve and tha may end up being the difference between the two players on the day.

Last year Taylor Fritz was able to get the better of the returning numbers when beating Holger Rune in Miami and the conditions here may just suit the Fritz game a little more than in Florida.

Their meeting in Miami was closer than the final score may indicate, but Taylor Fritz can frank that twelve months later and he can get the better of the return in moving into another Indian Wells Quarter Final.

Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils who continues to flash some of his very best tennis.

His win over Cameron Norrie has to be respected, but the Frenchman was out on the court for over three hours and this is another step upwards.

Casper Ruud is hard to trust to cover this kind of spread against a top player- he is a quality player, but the return game can be a little inconsistent on the hard courts and that will be an issue if Gael Monfils is really serving as well as he can.

However, you have to figure some fatigue is going to be at play and Casper Ruud can keep the pressure on with his own serve working effectively in the conditions. He should have an opportunity to hit through Monfils, as athletic and mobile as the latter is, and that should give Casper Ruud the advantage as he moves into another Quarter Final.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Emma Navarro: We have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka produce her consistent best throughout one match, but the Australian Open Champion continues to plunder her way through the Indian Wells draw.

She will be tested by an ever improving Emma Navarro, although the concern for the American is that she has fallen away in some matches when things have turned against her.

Emma Navarro has a decent serve and she has solid groundstrokes, but the question is how she will deal with the obvious power edge coming from the other side of the court. Frustrating Aryna Sabalenka by hitting her marks on the serve will be key for Navarro, but you have to give the World Number 2 an edge when she is able to get into rallies on the return.

Aryna Sabalenka will attack the Navarro second serve, while her own serve is one that can offer up a lot of short balls.

As long as Sabalenka keeps the error count down, she should be able to keep some sustained pressure on Emma Navarro and that can see her wear down the home player.

Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: Heading into the Australian Open Semi Final, Coco Gauff was motoring at a very, very high level.

However, the defeat to Aryna Sabalenka has sparked a relative downturn in level and over the last month it has been much harder work for the US Open Champion.

She has found a way to win matches, but Gauff has not been able to cover some very big spreads and that makes it a little more difficult to trust her at this mark.

In saying that, Coco Gauff has found a way to put the pressure on the Elise Mertens serve and she has won all three previous matches against this opponent. The last two wins would have seen her cover this mark, even though the win at the US Open was earned in three sets, and the American can get the better of this opponent again.

Elise Mertens will be playing with confidence after beating Naomi Osaka, but that was a match that could have easily got away from her at 5-4, 30/30 in the first set. Losing that would have made it a very long road back and Coco Gauff is playing at a superior level to the returning Osaka.

Serving well will be key and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve, but Coco Gauff has managed six breaks in her last two matches against Elise Mertens. Hitting that mark again should give Gauff an opportunity to have one of her less stressful wins since the Australian Open.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 20-18, - 0.92 Units (76 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 13th)

It was another day where a poor start saw the Tennis Picks drop to 0-3, but two late winners at least prevented it from being a really bad day in the office.

However, it was the first losing day at the Indian Wells Tournament and I am looking to bounce back on Monday as the Third Round continues in conditions that not being appreciated by all that take to the courts.

Daniil Medvedev has been complaining about how slow the courts are, especially considering this is supposed to be a hard court Masters event, and I do think it makes it difficult for those who want to punch through the court. Overhitting leads to mistakes in the air where the ball can fly off the racquet and it is not ideal for players who are used to performing on this surface in a certain way.

A first losing day has stung, but there is another long day coming up at Indian Wells and you can see my selections from the matches coming up below.

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Alex Molcan: There are eight Third Round matches from the ATP Tournament to be played on Monday, but the sole selection comes from a match featuring two of the more surprising players left in the draw.

Alex Molcan and Marton Fucsovics are both Ranked outside the top 50 of the World Rankings and both have needed an upset over a top 20 Ranked opponent to earn their place in the Third Round.

Credit to the pair of them for doing that, but over the last twelve months it has been a struggle for the two when playing top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface. Both have losing records in that time and Alex Molcan was just 2-10 in the matches until winning twice in that spot at Indian Wells, while Marton Fucsovics was 4-9 before two wins of his own.

That doesn't offer a lot of encouragement and the two players have very similar numbers behind serve in those matches with 60% of service points won and holds in 72% (Molcan) and 74% (Fucsovics) of service games played.

The difference looks to be in the return game with Fucsovics winning a number of percentage points more against the serve compared with Alex Molcan and I think that could where the edge will be in this big Third Round match that will give the winner a jump in Ranking points.

Marton Fucsovics has broken in 26% of return games played compared with Alex Molcan's 16% mark and I do think the former can create the majority of chances in this match.

Of course the lack of real confidence that either player has to be playing with on the hard courts could see things spiral, but I do like the Hungarian and his chances of winning and covering. As long as Marton Fucsovics returns as he can, I expect him to have the Break Point chances to win the match and he can find those breaks to secure a cover of this line.

MY PICKS: Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 16-9, + 8.91 Units (51 Units Staked, + 17.47% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 13th)

The first four days of the Indian Wells Tournament has not been as productive as I would have liked, but I don't believe the identification of the selections needs to be changed.

Of course I would to put some consistent winners on the board, but the tournament has another week to go and that means there is time to get this turned around and into a positive position.

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v John Millman: Two compatriots meet in the Second Round at the Indian Wells tournament on Sunday and that familiarity between Alex De Minaur and John Millman should mean there is a relative comfort on the court.

It may mainly be felt by Alex De Minaur who has won all three professional matches between the two players and largely in dominant style. The two wins on the hard courts has seen Alex De Minaur hold 75% of his service games, but the real damage done to John Millman has been on the return of serve with the latter only winning 46% of points behind serve and holding in 30% of service games played across those two matches.

The last twelve months have been challenging for Alex De Minaur and so I am expecting this to be closer than their previous two hard court matches, although I still give the higher Ranked Australian the edge to cover this spread.

Both the serve and return have been improved in 2022, but over the last twelve months Alex De Minaur has had some vulnerabilities on the hard courts which has stunted his progression. The hope is that the early season form is something he can maintain, although the first match in any new tournament can be a challenge for even the very best players.

John Millman was a First Round winner having benefited as a Lucky Loser when falling in the Qualifiers. At his best, John Millman is a competent hard court player and his numbers are solid, if nothing spectacular.

There has been enough in his tennis to think the familiarity with the Indian Wells conditions could see him give Alex De Minaur trouble, but the head to head between them has to be a concern for John Millman. My feeling is that it will mean a slow start from Alex De Minaur as he just figures things out before he is able to start dominating an opponent that he has bettered in their previous matches.

Both will know all they need to about the other, but Alex De Minaur has had the edge and I think he can win well to move through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 9-10, - 5.74 Units (38 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman Gonzalez (March 13th)

There are Boxing cards most weekend, but it was still a disappointment to see the slight delay to the Dillian Whyte vs Alexander Povetkin rematch which means that bout, and rest of the card, will take place at the end of March rather than opening the month.

It did mean it was a quieter opening week of March, although it was good to see Tony Yoka back in the ring as the Heavyweight looks to put some momentum behind his career. Tony Yoka has to be looking at the likes of Joe Joyce with some envy as they looked like they were beginning their careers on a similar path, but it is up to the Frenchman to not only become more active, but also start to raise the level of the opponents he is facing to show he is up to the task of challenging for World Titles.

Speaking about the Heavyweights, I was really hoping we would have gotten some news about the first of what is expected to be two bouts between Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury. At the moment the best we have received is continued teases of being 'days away' from an announcement, but nothing has been signed off and Tyson Fury was on the media rounds this past week sounding very much less confident than the likes of Bob Arum and Eddie Hearn about that Super-Fight being next.

The lack of clarity has the whole Division on hold with Oleksandr Usyk not able to confirm his bout with Joe Joyce that was expected to be for the interim WBO World Title- while the AJ-Fury fight is still up in the air, Usyk's team are confident they can push for their mandatory and don't want to be locked into any contract before that.

Dillian Whyte's immediate future is set, while Deontay Wilder, Dereck Chisora and Joseph Parker are all in and around the World Title discussions but yet to confirm what is next for them. One former World Champion that will return to the ring is Andy Ruiz Jr who is due out next month in his first fight under Eddy Reynoso.

That is going to be really interesting to see how the pairing works considering the successes Reynoso has had with Canelo, but more recently with Ryan Garcia and Oscar Valdez. A fit, healthy and motivated Andy Ruiz Jr could be fun to watch in the Division, but for now all is on hold as the fans continue to wait and see if the big Unification fight can be put together to determine the best of this generation.

Two weeks ago Eddy Reynoso was overseeing Canelo Alvarez' destructive win over an overmatched Avni Yildirim- the result was not a surprise, but it has cleared the mandatory and now the path is clear for the Mexican superstar to become the first Boxer to try and Unify the Super-Middleweight Division.

Next up for Canelo Alvarez is Billy Joe Saunders on May 8th and then it could be full steam ahead towards Caleb Plant who is unlikely to risk his big payday before the expected September clash.

All credit has to be given to Canelo for trying to put a strong legacy together and Unifying the 168 pound Division would be a massive achievement. It does feel like the Gennady Golovkin trilogy is still a possibility, but unlikely before 2022, and it will be fun to see what kind of challenges Canelo sets for himself if he is successful in his next two bouts to hold all the belts at Super-Middleweight.

At this moment my feeling is that Caleb Plant is the bigger challenge left out of the two Champions Canelo is targeting, but Billy Joe Saunders is no slouch and I think May 8th will be a lot of fun.

Last weekend was a relatively quiet one, but the remainder of March has some strong cards on tap and it should be very enjoyable for us Boxing fans. I have signed up for DAZN and they are putting a couple of strong cards together which makes the price very much worth paying and the first of those takes place this weekend in Dallas when we have the rematch between Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez.

This is a potential 'Fight of the Year' contender, while David Benavidez is back for the first time since missing weight meaning he was not able to pick up the WBC Super Middleweight Title last August. He is still campaigning at 168 pounds, but any potential bout against Canelo Alvarez is not going to happen in 2021 and that is his punishment for inexcusably losing the green belt twice without actually losing a fight.

Jessica McCaskill vs Cecilia Braekhus

When these two met in August 2020 the expectation was that the 'First Lady' of Boxing was going to retain her World Titles as a comfortable favourite against Jessica McCaskill.

That would have seen Cecilia Braekhus surpass the number of World Title defences Joe Louis had when dominating the Heavyweight Division, but instead she was on the wrong end of an upset having been considered the Pound for Pound star of Women's Boxing.

Comments immediately after the fight are something of a concern as it sounded like Braekhus was heading into retirement having spoken about 'passing the torch' to McCaskill and saying Women's Boxing would 'be fine' without her. Those kind of comments can be very difficult to come back from as it says a lot about what a fighter is feeling inside and I do have some questions about how much a 39 year old Cecilia Braekhus will want to return to the top of the 147 pound Division.

She has suggested that there has been a reigniting of motivation thanks to some of the quotes attributed to Jessica McCaskill ever since she won the first fight.

Perhaps the cold light of day allowed Cecilia Braekhus the opportunity to reanalyse the fight and come to the conclusion that she was unfortunate to lose on the night and I think my feeling is leaning towards revenge rather than repeat. The former Champion actually landed more punches in the first fight, albeit by a single punch margin according to those who record those shots, while I think Cecilia Braekhus would have learnt plenty from the Ten Rounds that are in the bank.

Jessica McCaskill has a style that can make it very easy to score Rounds in her favour as she pursues opponents with aggression and pushing the tempo and in the first fight she threw a lot more punches than her opponent. Not landing those is an issue, but McCaskill looked comfortable with the pace and her aggression won out on the day despite the better countering evidently coming from Cecilia Braekhus.

I don't think the style and visual of the fight will change much as a younger and fresher McCaskill looks to put it on the former Champion from the opening bell through the Ten Rounds scheduled. The big question that will be answered is how much Cecilia Braekhus wants to be restored as Champion and how much she really believes she should still be the Champion having suggested she was harshly treated by the judges back in August.

I do think we will see more punches thrown by Cecilia Braekhus in this one, but I also believe she will be much better prepared to deal with the pressure and aggression Jessica McCaskill will be bringing into the ring. That can see the Norwegian picking her off a little clearer for the judges to see and I think Braekhus is able to reverse the scorecards and earn the Decision this time while either setting up for the trilogy later in the year or perhaps even focusing on the catchweight potential bout against Clarissa Shields.

It was a Majority Decision which done it for Jessica McCaskill back in August, but she was at home that night and this time Cecilia Braekhus can be the fighter that comes away with a tight win on the cards.

Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman Gonzalez

These two met a little over eight years ago and at seven pounds lighter, and it is a rematch that comes at a time when both Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez are much more experienced and coming off strong performances.

Not many would have expected to see Chocolatito in a fight of this importance after the Knock Out defeat to Wisaksil Wangek which was his second consecutive loss to the Thai fighter. At 33 years old there are some miles on the clock for Roman Gonzalez, but he has bounced back to win four fights in a row.

The most impressive of those came a little over twelve months ago when Roman Gonzalez stopped Khalid Yafai in Nine Rounds to win the WBA Super Fly Title and that is easily the toughest fight he has taken on during this four fight winning run. He looked close to his best in dominating an unbeaten Champion who was looking to move amongst the elite in the Division and it was Gonzalez who got the better of things when him and Juan Francisco Estrada shared a ring back in 2012.

This is a different Estrada to the one that was beaten by Chocolatito and back in 2012 the Mexican was just 22 years old and largely seen as a prospect rather than a contender. Juan Francisco Estrada didn't disappoint on the day, but he has gone from strength to strength since then and has earned revenge over the other two opponents who have beaten him.

One of those was the aforementioned Wangek and Juan Francisco Estrada has earned back to back Stoppage wins since then. He is a tough fighter who is willing to take one punch to land some of his own and he will be looking to put the pressure on Roman Gonzalez, although Estrada showed some vulnerability when Knocked Down in his last bout against Carlos Cuadras before rallying and becoming the first to stop his compatriot later in the same fight.

Both look in great shape and I think they are going to mesh very well in what could be another hugely entertaining fight put on by the Super Flyweights.

There is every reason to argue that the winner of this fight will not only be a two Belt holder, but also the best in the Division even if Wisaksil Wangek will have something to say about that. He is likely going to be the next opponent for whoever wins, but that fighter will need some time off after what is likely going to be a gruelling World Title fight.

Roman Gonzalez is the better boxer and he still has some pop in his punches, while Juan Francisco Estrada can leave himself open at times. That will be encouraging to the narrow underdog, but I do think Estrada is the fresher fighter and he has shown he is willing to take opponents into deep waters where the accumulation of his work is most keenly felt.

Anything but a top fight would be a surprise and I think both of these boxers will have their moments and I can't rule out both being Knocked Down at some point through the Twelve Rounds. My feeling is that Juan Francisco Estrada has a bit more left in the tank at this point of their careers and he has the benefit of redeeming himself in two of his previous three defeats with this one being the exception so far.

Most will likely expect this one to go to the cards and I think both Estrada and Gonzalez have shown they can come through the fire to hear the final bell throughout their careers. However I do think Chocolatito is not the same level of fighter as he once was while it feels like Juan Francisco Estrada is hitting his peak and that may see him find the strength and right combinations to end this one in the Championship Rounds.

I am looking forward to this one as a fan and I don't think I will be disappointed, but I do think a small interest is warranted on Estrada earning his third straight Stoppage in the later Rounds of his bouts as he earns revenge and wins the Unification World Title scrap.

David Benavidez vs Ronald Ellis

If it wasn't for some of the weight issues, David Benavidez might have been looking forward to a Unification fight with Canelo Alvarez at some point in 2021.

He is still keen on getting in the ring with the Mexican Pound for Pound star, but without a belt there could be a long wait, although the huge potential payday has ensured Benavidez has not thought about moving up in weight.

The 175 pound Division may be the more natural for David Benavidez, but for now he is trying to tempt someone to come up and weight him at Super Middleweight or continue to keep winning and force a mandatory with Canelo in 2022.

David Benavidez has to keep winning and this looks a good chance to showcase his skills when taking on Ronald Ellis.

The 31 year old American has a decent 18-1-2 record, although you wouldn't make a huge note of many of the fighters has beaten on his record. Ronald Ellis benefited from the latest injury suffered by Matvey Korobov who was leading on the cards before being forced to retire with an ankle issues suffered on the night.

Other than that, Ronald Ellis doesn't really have anyone on his resume that suggests he can beat an opponent of the level of David Benavidez and I fully expect the unbeaten fighter to eventually walk Ellis down and earn a Stoppage. Accumulation of punches and a willingness to break the spirit before looking to break down the body should give David Benavidez a real edge in the fight and I think he will make a statement by making sure Ronald Ellis does not hear the final bell.

Some will feel this could end early, but I think Benavidez is someone who relies on accumulation rather than a one punch Knock Out ability and that should see him getting the job done in the second half of the fight. In the early part of his career David Benavidez did earn the early Stoppages against overmatched opponents, but seven of his last nine fights have lasted at least Seven Rounds and I think Ellis will do enough to at least get to that stage of this bout.

While he has not really been in with opponents of this level, Ronald Ellis has shown some durability, but I don't think it will be enough to weather the storm that David Benavidez will bring in the second half of this fight.

The unbeaten fighter can then choose to call out the likes of Canelo Alvarez and Caleb Plant, although Benavidez may have to wait until his mandatory shot is called for the WBC Title.

MY PICKS: Cecilia Braekhus to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Juan Francisco Estrada to Win Between 7-12 @ 7.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 5-9, - 4.08 Units (27 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (March 12-15)

I have something to get off my chest about the last round of the Fantasy Football game, but that can wait for the dedicated section below.

Before that let me put a few thoughts down about the Premier League fixtures to be played from Friday to Monday as we fast approach a break in play with the March internationals still scheduled to be played later this month.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa Pick: The Premier League weekend opens up on Friday evening and both Newcastle United and Aston Villa will be looking for the maximum points to move towards their ambitions for the season. The home team may have earned a point last weekend, but Fulham's win at Liverpool has closed the gap between Newcastle United and the relegation zone and Steve Bruce has to be feeling the pressure.

Some suggested a defeat at The Hawthorns last weekend would have cost Bruce his job, but the point earned has given him a little more time.

Pressure doesn't disappear though and a defeat on Friday could leave Newcastle United vulnerable to falling into the bottom three although that would need Brighton and Fulham to earn unexpected results later this weekend. Steve Bruce will be under immense pressure if Newcastle United do lose though and being without key attacking players makes it very difficult to believe in them.

There is some talent still here, but finding the balance between attack and defence has been difficult for Newcastle United.

Now they have to face an Aston Villa team who have found a way to outperform the underlying statistics and pick up clean sheets despite the huge chances they are giving up. At least in this game they could be playing a team short of attacking threat, although Aston Villa have struggled to create a lot themselves without Jack Grealish in the line up.

The hope is that the England international will be ready to go this week, but even then Aston Villa be playing at a tough ground for them. In recent years Aston Villa have not won in 12 visits to St James' Park and this feels like it will be another close game with goals lacking when these teams have faced each other.

The last 10 between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and the recent struggles of both teams in the final third could see that trend move at least one more game. Inconsistent performances have blighted both over the last several weeks, but the injuries to the Newcastle United key attacking players and Aston Villa's run of five goals in 8 League games should add up to another low-scoring fixture.

Leeds United v Chelsea Pick: The early Saturday offering from the Premier League should be an interesting tactical battle between two managers who are convinced by the way they would like their football to be played.

Both Marcelo Bielsa and Thomas Tuchel have clear identities and both Leeds United and Chelsea have responded to their managers respectively. The better players are in the visitor's dressing room though and that should give Thomas Tuchel a real chance to set his Chelsea team up in a manner to expose the Leeds United spaces that have been left behind for much of the season.

No one will criticise the attacking intent of the Leeds United play, but it does leave them vulnerable to those teams with the quality that Chelsea will bring to the field. There have also been signs of frustration from Leeds United in front of goal and they have failed to hit the net in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games.

Playing on this Elland Road surface is not ideal for either club, but that can't be an excuse for either team either. Chelsea's recent form is certainly going to give them a more confident approach to this fixture, but the lack of goals away from Stamford Bridge is a concern.

They should have the chances to at least change the narrative on that front at Elland Road considering the manner in which Leeds United approach things. I also think set pieces continue to be a big problem for Leeds United to deal with and Chelsea have scored plenty of goals from corners and free kicks this season which suggests they can expose the vulnerabilities Leeds United have shown.

Leeds United should test this Chelsea team even though Tuchel has made them a little more balanced on that side of the field. However you do have to believe that Chelsea will prove to be a little too strong and an early goal could set them up to score at least twice for the first time away from home since early February when they managed to hit that mark in Yorkshire at Sheffield United.

The home team will continue to press, but Chelsea can punish them with the pace and quality they have in the final third. The feeling is that the visitors will earn the three points in a relatively high-scoring game as Chelsea look to put a stamp on one of the top four places and ensure a return to the Champions League next season.

Crystal Palace v West Brom Pick: All of the pressure has shifted to West Brom who would have seen the improvements made by relegation rivals Fulham that has left them 8 points from safety. The goalless draw with Newcastle United last weekend will have really hurt Sam Allardyce, although West Brom deserved a lot more from the fixture.

Ultimately they have looked short of the quality in the final third that would have been needed to avoid relegation and it would be a huge surprise if West Brom managed to do that now. This is almost the last chance saloon for them with another failure to secure a win likely only delaying the inevitable.

However a win might give West Brom the confidence to take into the April and May schedule with a chance to really work on Sam Allardyce's methods. The break in play might have come too late to really make a difference and West Brom are facing a Crystal Palace team who have worked hard for back to back clean sheets at Selhurst Park.

Like Sam Allardyce, Roy Hodgson will have spent a week working on the shape of this Crystal Palace team from a defensive standpoint to make sure they keep the points ticking over. Even with a long injury list Crystal Palace have managed to do that, although the lack of recent goals has to be a concern.

Crystal Palace will be given a huge boost by a returning Wilfred Zaha and Christian Benteke has offered a new threat for them having struggled for much of the last eighteen months. The return of Zaha in particular should mean Crystal Palace carry more of an attacking threat in this one and a moment of magic is more likely to come from the home team as they move a step closer to securing Premier League Football for another season.

There are enough talented players in the final third who can do that for Crystal Palace when you add the likes of Andros Townsend and Eberechi Eze to Zaha and Benteke and I think the home team may edge to the full points. The first goal will be crucial with goals drying up in the Premier League over the last couple of weeks, but The Eagles can get their noses in front here and that may be enough to secure a vital three points.

Everton v Burnley Pick: Performing at home has been difficult for most teams in the Premier League this season as the continued absence of fans affects clubs, but it is still a strange trend.

Everton are another who have seemingly been much more effective away from home, but an improvement at Goodison Park could see the team potentially scrap their way into the top four. A defeat at Chelsea is a setback for the club as they chase a surprising spot in the Champions League, but Everton are only 4 points off those places and have a game in hand over the teams above them.

All of that will mean nothing if they can't get back to winning ways on Saturday when they host a Burnley team who have been hard to beat in recent weeks. Everton did have 3 clean sheets in a row in the Premier League before losing at Stamford Bridge and the feeling is they can hold Burnley at arm's length in this one which should give them the edge.

For all the battling qualities Burnley have displayed, they have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games. However the exceptions have both resulted in victories which includes a 0-1 win at Anfield and that has to be respected.

Burnley are simply not creating a lot of chances and defensively there have been gaps teams have exploited. For one reason or another, poor finishing has cost some against Burnley and Arsenal were guilty of that last weekend.

Everton have looked a little more certain about their ability to turn chances into goals of late though and they have a very strong recent record against Burnley. The Toffees have won 5 of the last 6 at home against Burnley and I think they can do that here, although Everton may have to ride out some difficult moments if they are not able to put this opponent away.

We saw that in narrow wins over Southampton and West Brom recently, but Everton have shown they can win those kind of games and can do the same against Burnley.

Fulham v Manchester City Pick: There will be plenty of people lined up ready to congratulate Scott Parker in the manner his Fulham team have given themselves a chance to avoid the drop, but the manager himself won't be satisfied until it is confirmed that Premier League Football will remain at Craven Cottage for another season.

After a slow start to the season, Fulham are motoring now and 3 wins in their last 7 Premier League games has given them a real opportunity.

The win last weekend at Anfield was an upset even though Liverpool made plenty of changes to their first eleven and any positive result on Saturday will drag Fulham out of the bottom three for twenty-four hours at the least.

Performances have improved and Fulham have looked a little stronger on both ends of the field over the last couple of months. Scott Parker has found the right formula to get the best out of his team and make them hard to beat, but turning some draws into wins has given Fulham a huge amount of momentum which they would look to carry through the March international break.

Upsetting the odds again will be on the minds of the players, but Manchester City are a different proposition to an injury hit Liverpool team. Playing at Craven Cottage has been a little more difficult for Fulham who have lacked for goals here and have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 League games at home, and they have been beaten in 5 of their last 7 here in all competitions.

Manchester City might have seen their long winning run ended at the hands of rivals Manchester United last Sunday, but they are back to winning ways having crushed Southampton on Wednesday. They have won 12 straight away games in all competitions and Manchester City are a team who have created chances and scored plenty of goals on their travels, while 10 of those 12 wins have come by two or more goal margins.

They have won their last 3 fixtures at Craven Cottage and the attacking quality is likely going to make all the difference for them.

Over the last couple of weeks the defensive strength Manchester City have been displaying has not looked as impregnable as it had been before. Fulham may cause some problems with the pace they have in forward areas, but I do feel Manchester City will control the play and eventually break down this tough Fulham team in a relatively comfortable win when all is said and done. 

Southampton v Brighton Pick: The early Sunday kick off in the Premier League is a big game on the south coast as Southampton get set to entertain Brighton.

A win at Sheffield United last weekend has at least given Southampton some breathing room to the bottom three, but there is no doubt they still need to put some more points on the board to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Beating Brighton would really put Southampton on the brink of securing their top flight status and the performances over the last week have given the group some confidence.

Ralph Hasenhuttl was able to rotate his squad for the defeat at Manchester City, but he would have also kept some key players fresh and ready to go for this Premier League fixture.

Over the last couple of weeks Southampton have been creating chances, but it is important to have some of their key defenders back which will at least make the system feel like it has a solid base. They did concede five at Manchester City, but before that Southampton earned the clean sheet at Sheffield United and only conceded a single goal to Everton and I do think they are on the right road.

Keeping Brighton at bay will not be easy and you do have to expect that all the big chances being created by The Seagulls will eventually be rewarded with some big results. This is a team who have looked comfortable getting forward and they have been defending pretty well even if their opponents have been clinical in the final third which has resulted in more goals being conceded than you would imagine.

At some point you just have to accept that it is the way the season is going for Brighton and they may struggle for a result at St Mary's.

The last 3 between them at this ground have all ended in draws, but the feeling is that Southampton may just hold the edge in this fixture. They have shown a little more power in the final third and even without Danny Ings Southampton may do enough to secure the three points and leave Brighton in a very difficult spot in the Division.

Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: Injuries have hurt both Leicester City and Sheffield United over the last few weeks and it has seen the two clubs fail to put together the kind of positive results that they would have liked.

While the visitors are hurting defensively, Leicester City are missing creative, attacking talents like James Maddison and Harvey Barnes and it has just seen them struggle in front of goal. Last weekend they needed a huge mistake from the Brighton goalkeeper to earn the victory at the Amex Stadium, but prior to that Leicester City have been struggling.

Even in the win at Brighton they did struggle to create a lot of chances and you do wonder if they can expose the issues Sheffield United have been having at the back. The Blades have given up some big chances, but Jamie Vardy has not been at his best and Leicester City are going to have to dig deep to earn the points to keep their top four ambitions on track.

One benefit for Leicester City is that they are facing a Sheffield United team who have struggled to create chances and the lack of goals has proven to be costly for the visitors. With Jonny Evans expected back, Brendan Rodgers may be looking for The Foxes to set up a secure foundation with the expectation that his team can do just enough to find the goals to earn the three points.

Leicester City have scored more than two goals in just 1 of their last 12 games in all competitions while Sheffield United have not scored in 4 of their last 5 fixtures. The feeling is that a low-scoring home win is most likely going to be the outcome of this one as Leicester City maintain their spot in the top four.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur were playing in the Europa League on Thursday, but at least the latter were playing in North London rather than needing to travel back from the continent like Arsenal had to.

The situation was reversed earlier this season when Tottenham Hotspur hosted the North London derby and it didn't stop them winning the game 2-0. Jose Mourinho was quick to point that out to the press when he was asked whether his Tottenham Hotspur team had an advantage this weekend.

Both teams won comfortably on Thursday and look in a good position to make the Europa League Quarter Final so all focus can turn to this important Premier League game. It is still such a shame that these fixtures have to be played in an era where the fans have yet to return to the ground and it has sometimes meant the games have lacked the intensity that we would otherwise have.

Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur cannot allow that to happen if they are to achieve their domestic aims and I do think two strong teams will be selected. Mikel Arteta did rest some players for the League game at Burnley which came between Europa League ties, but the win at Olympiacos and the margin of victory has meant the Spaniard can play any team he likes.

Jose Mourinho will be hoping Harry Kane hasn't picked up a serious knock having come off with a knee issue against Dinamo Zagreb, and his Tottenham Hotspur team have been playing with some confidence. In recent games they have been creating plenty of chances and defensively they have largely managed games which should mean Tottenham Hotspur have every chance to win a first League game at Arsenal since November 2010.

They would have ended that run if they had held onto their 0-2 lead at the Emirates Stadium last season and Arsenal remain a team who have been a little inconsistent in the final third. The Gunners continue to cause more problems for themselves defensively than they need to and I do think Tottenham Hotspur have the players to hurt them.

This could be a fun North London derby, but my feeling is that Tottenham Hotspur may be the stronger team. Arsenal are dangerous and they have some talented players that can cause problems for any team they face, but Tottenham Hotspur may have the edge overall and I think they can find a way to earn the three points.

Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: If this match had been played a month ago Manchester United would have been considerable favourites to win the fixture and the evidence for that is the price they were to beat West Ham United in the FA Cup Fifth Round in February.

Since then the form has become inconsistent and the injuries in the front line means Manchester United are going to have to work very hard to break down this West Ham United team. The visitors have been defending really effectively in recent weeks and they were very unfortunate to lose at Manchester City a couple of weeks ago, while David Moyes seems to have everyone on the same page.

He will be looking to frustrate Manchester United and Moyes should feel confident in his team to do that if the home team are without Anthony Martial, Edinson Cavani and possibly Marcus Rashford. That leaves Manchester United short of considerable talent and there is a big drop to the next level with Daniel James, Mason Greenwood and possibly Amad Diallo having to occupy the front three places.

West Ham United have contained better attacking line ups than that and this is a team who are playing with a lot of belief. Even Jesse Lingard has come into the squad and produced some of his better football, but his absence this weekend will mean an opportunity for someone else to pick up the baton.

The Hammers are creating chances and they offer a real threat from set pieces which is something that has been something of an Achilles heel for Manchester United all season. They were undone by another corner on Thursday evening and I think there will be plenty backing West Ham United to earn the upset on Sunday evening and really put the cat amongst the pigeons when it comes to the top four race.

I have to say that Manchester United have largely been in control defensively in recent games though and it may need set pieces to undo them. If they can restrict the opportunity for West Ham United to put balls into the box they should be able to largely deal with this attacking line up which has pace and skill, but can be a little hit and miss.

Goals may be at a premium with the two defences taking to the field and the first goal is likely going to be vital. I am really not sure which way that will go though and instead think this may be a low-scoring game on Sunday evening.

The last 2 between these clubs at Old Trafford have both finished with fewer than three goals shared out and this may be the third match to do that in succession.

Wolves v Liverpool Pick: Monday Night Football comes from Molineux and that may actually be music to the ears of Liverpool fans considering the awful form they have displayed at home. They may have lost 6 straight at Anfield, but Liverpool have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and have also beaten Leipzig on a neutral field twice so the players won't be lacking for too much confidence.

They have a strong record against Wolves and they have won their last 4 Premier League games at Molinuex.

Not many would have imagined the 4-0 win over Wolves at Anfield in early December would have been followed by just one more League win at home going through to the end of March, but Liverpool's away form has to be respected. They have been creating plenty of chances in those fixtures on their travels and Liverpool have players who can hurt Wolves here.

Wolves have been inconsistent for months and ever since losing Raul Jimenez they have been even harder to get a good read on. They will dominate the chances and come away with a draw like they did at Aston Villa, but on another day they will be hammered and look terrible at the back and somehow come away with a victory as they did against Leeds United.

They are unbeaten in 3 at home and have won 2 of those games, but both Arsenal and Leeds United will believe they deserved a lot more. Liverpool's recent away performances suggest they can can get more and they may have too much for Wolves in the final third as they look for the three points to at least reignite their challenge for a top four finish.

This should be close, but Liverpool should have the better of the chances and that should see them come away with the points. I don't imagine a really high-scoring game, but Liverpool should create the better chances and just give themselves a shot in the arm when it comes to the Champions League race in the English top flight.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton 0 Asian Handicap

Leicester City & Under 3.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap

Manchester United-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals

Liverpool & Under 5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 28

This season has been one of the more inconsistent Premier League seasons we have seen in a long time with home advantage so hit and miss and with strange results coming out every week.

That is something we have all had to adjust to, but even then it can be very difficult to accept some of the 'luck' factors and especially when they seem to be going against you each passing week. I have certainly decided that the gut feeling has to overrule the head if I am going to earn my spot in the top 100K after the latest decision that seems to have gone against me.

I am not even going to mention Luke Shaw's huge haul that I left on the bench, that is something I would have done in most situations like the one Manchester United faced but it sums up the manner in which you can't really predict outcomes of any fixture with genuine confidence.

What has bothered me is my transfer decision making- last week I identified James Ward-Prowse as a potential midfield option, but ended up coming down in favour of Mason Mount.

The 'luck' I spoke about saw Danny Ings pick up an injury and JWP has not only taken advantage of scoring one Penalty, but scored another one in his Double GameWeek and also picked up an assist. Unsurprisingly to anyone who has been reading this thread, Mount didn't even start for Chelsea and it proved to be a decision that cost 20 points.

I've been on the wrong side of too many of these, while I am also getting a little fed up of my bench letting me down. And then teams like Aston Villa continue to confound the XG by picking up clean sheets despite teams racking up huge Expected Goal numbers against them, but insist on missing point blank sitters.

It all adds up and it has left me in a disappointing position, but I should activate the Wild Card soon and look to go with more gut feeling than anything else.

Next week I am going to be using my Free Hit so I should use the Free Transfer we all get in each week as I won't be able to carry it beyond GW29 anyway. Marcus Rashford is the player most likely that I will move out of my squad and that is because he is set to miss out this week.

The way the FPL game has me feeling this season makes me believe that either I will take out Rashford and he will surprisingly start and bang in a hat-trick on Sunday, or I will remove him and my Bench option will score a single point. Once those thoughts get in your head you can make rash decisions, but I do think it is the right play to remove the Manchester United player and look for other options.

It feels like it could be a one week rental for whoever I bring in and so there are plenty of options open to me, although the focus has to be on those who could be a differential. The best teams look to be Everton, Leicester City and Chelsea who look the most likely teams to score at least twice this week, but I will be thinking about this until the Friday afternoon deadline.

Kai Havertz had a big game against Everton, but I have the aforementioned Mason Mount, while Gylfi Sigurdsson was appealing if not suffering with a slight knock. The injuries to the attacking midfielders at Leicester City maybe raises the appeal of someone like Youri Tielemans, while Gareth Bale and Mason Greenwood could be decent differentials.

It is something that I will be considering while I am very tempted with putting the armband on Mount against the attack minded Leeds United. That is another aspect I am considering because I need to do without a 'single pointer' as Captain so Harry Kane and possibly the midfielder I bring in are other choices to lead the team. Raheem Sterling was rested in midweek, but Fulham have defended pretty well of late which reduces some of the appeal there.

Next week the options will be much clearer with four Premier League games scheduled to be played and with the Free Hit Chip in the pocket.

Good luck with your plays this week.

Indian Wells Masters Day 8 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 13th)

I won't lie, that is the kind of day I have experience picking matches at Indian Wells for a long time now.

You can't hide from the poor Picks, but when you can see the way others are about to fall down it doubles down on the pain of those poor selections.

Karolina Pliskova waiting until the cover could not be completed before going on and winning the next four games in a row to win the set was annoying.

But Venus Williams was up 5-2 in the first set and couldn't serve it out and also had a match point to earn the cover in the second set and still failed to get it done in what was a comfortable win for her on the day.

And then to really complete the saga it was Elina Svitolina missing what felt like multiple match points at different points of the second and third set which meant she also missed the cover by one game.

On one hand I say well done to the layers who got their marks down perfectly... But on the other I am hoping that kind of disappointing luck at those key moments swing back around for me.


So basically all the hard work done over the weekend has been erased by a miserable Tuesday, although I remain in a positive number for the tournament. It feels like it should be so much better considering I do think I read those three matches I've highlighted above perfectly, but we move on and look for better on Wednesday.


Karen Khachanov v John Isner: The conditions in Indian Wells are certainly not as quick as most of the other hard courts on the Tour, but these two players have monster shots which are going to give them the chance to run through some service games regardless.

2019 has perhaps not been as productive for John Isner as he would like in terms of the results he is putting together, but his numbers have remained strong. His serve is always going to be a shot that produces a very high number of holds, but Isner has been making use of the limited chances he gets to break serve and his break percentage numbers are higher than in previous seasons.

It is still not a number that leaps off the page at 13% on the hard courts, but that is enough when you are holding serve as convincingly as he has done for the most part in 2019. These numbers are certainly going to pose a test for Karen Khachanov who has been a little underwhelming in 2019 so far and who has gone 0-2 in matches on this surface against top 50 Ranked opponents.

The early numbers have taken a dip in both the serve and return aspects of Khachanov's game and it has left him vulnerable to a number of upsets already. However in this one is going to head into the match as the underdog and Khachanov should be confident he can be the one upsetting the odds when you think he has won all three previous matches against Isner.

Two of those were played on the hard courts last year when Khachanov allowed a total of just one break point to Isner across those matches. They did come in faster conditions than we will see in Indian Wells, but Khachanov also holds a clay court win over Isner from the French Open in 2017 and this is a match up he has enjoyed where so many others have not.

The young Russian has yet to be broken by Isner and he has found the two breaks of serve in the three matches which have proven to be decisive. John Isner has been in fine form in his two wins in Indian Wells to move through to the Fourth Round, but this has been a tough match up for him and it feels like another that is going to be decided by a point or two here and there.

Karen Khachanov's serving numbers against Isner could be vital even if the lottery of a tie-breaker is hard to judge and we could easily need a couple of those in this match. The fact he has never been broken by Isner will be on both player's minds at some point, especially if the match gets tight and I do think the underdog could be worth a play in this Fourth Round encounter.

I do think it will be another close match between these players, but Khachanov has made the big plays when the chances have come his way previously and the two wins should have him feeling good this week.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There has been real signs that Philipp Kohlschreiber is a declining force on the ATP Tour, but the veteran still has the ability to put a really strong week together. That is exactly what he is doing in Indian Wells having beaten Acapulco Champion Nick Krygios and backing that up with an upset of the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic on his way through to the Fourth Round.

Once again Kohlschreiber is going to be an underdog as he faces Gael Monfils.

The enigmatic Frenchman seems to be knuckling down and looking to way winning tennis much more in 2019 than we have seen previously, although Monfils has regularly put together some solid weeks when it looks like he finally wants to win rather than entertain. He won the title in Rotterdam on the indoor hard courts and Monfils has continued to look focused on the court, while the match up with Kohlschreiber has proved to his liking in the past.

Gael Monfils leads the head to head with thirteen wins compared to two losses, while he has won all nine between them on the hard courts. His numbers have been significantly better than Kohlschreiber's and even though they have not played each other for over two years since the Australian Open, it is something that has to be factored in.

Coming off an emotional win is also tough for Kohlschreiber who had to play his Third Round match on Tuesday after poor weather prevented him and Djokovic playing more than one game on Monday. So while he has been out there toiling and earning his biggest win for some time, Gael Monfils would have been resting and I think that plays a part in this one too.

It has been a wonderful tournament for the German to this point and I do think Kohlschreiber will be dangerous, especially if he continues serving as well as he has. However Monfils has a strong break percentage against Kohlschreiber in their previous hard court matches and he is also in fine form in that aspect of his game in 2019 on the hard courts.

As long as Monfils can bring his usually decent serving to the court, I think he will have too much for Kohlschreiber and can beat him and cover the spread to reach the Quarter Final of yet another 2019 tournament.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 21-19, + 0.90 Units (80 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)