Tennis Picks August 3rd Washington and San Diego

I couldn't help but feel a little disappointed in following the David Nalbandian loss to James Blake last night- Nalbandian was my favourite player in the early part of the last decade and one that I felt has not quite reached the heights that his talent has deserved, either through injury or not quite finishing the job at key times.

His biggest moment came in 2005 when he overturned a 2 set deficit against Roger Federer in the ATP End of Year Championships, a remarkable feat when considering where Federer was in his career.

Nalbandian remains the best player I have seen in my lifetime that failed to win a Grand Slam, which is a real disappointment considering how close he came in a couple of different tournaments.

He should have won the US Open in 2003 when leading Andy Roddick 2-0 in the Semi Final before the American fought through and went on to win his only Grand Slam title.

Nalbandian was also a Finalist at Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps a little too early in his career at that time,  and in 2004 he was the big favourite to beat Gaston Gaudio in the Semi Final at the French Open before losing to the eventual winner.

Time looks to have passed Nalbandian by when it comes to a singles Grand Slam win, but I will be cheering on Argentina in the Davis Cup and hope he has one more big achievement left in him. Twice he has helped lead Argentina to the Final, but this year he will have the additional support of Juan Martin Del Potro.

He still remains an exceptional player to watch and I have been fortunate to see him in action live on a couple of occasions this year- hopefully he will be back in the UK for tournaments next season too.

Now on to the Picks:

Double; Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik and Jurgen Melzer vs Donald Young: There is a lot of choice today from the ATP tournament in Washington, but there were too many question marks for me to make too many picks.

This is one double I picked out from the coupon which I feel should come in- Radek Stepanek was serving very well in his 1st Round win over Philipp Petzschner and perhaps should have won the match in straight sets and he faces a player that has only returned to the tour in recent months and comes into the tournament as a 'Lucky Loser'.

Wayne Odesnik has recently won a Challenger event on the hard courts but was beaten in straight sets by Rajeev Ram in the qualifying here and Stepanek represents a significant step up of recent competition.

Stepanek is coming to the end of his career but he remains competitive and has had a good time on the hard courts in previous years. He also holds a winning record over Odesnik in the head to head and I think his chances have been underestimated by the layers.

Jurgen Melzer has not had a great season following last years exploits and he also had the additional problem of having to move from the clay to the hard courts. These first matches on a new surface can be tough, but I think Melzer can take down the underachieving Donald Young.

Young took advantage of an overmatched opponent in the 1st Round, but recent defeats to Michael Russell and Alex Bogdanovic do not really inspire confidence in him.

Melzer has also won both previous meetings with Young, one of those on a hard court, and I think the Austrian will be too strong here.


Ryan Harrison vs Victor Troicki: Ryan Harrison has played a lot of tennis, with success, in the last couple of weeks and was forced to go the distance in beating Mischa Zverev yesterday. However, he plays an opponent that has only played a couple of Davis Cup ties since Wimbledon and he could catch him cold.

Troicki is having a good season and it took Novak Djokovic to stop his runs at Miami and Indian Wells earlier this year. He didn't have a great Summer Swing here last year and was beaten in this Round in Washington when falling to Mardy Fish.

Harrison has not beaten someone of the level of Troicki over the last couple of weeks, but I will have a small interest that he can cause a surprise against an undercooked opponent.


Sofia Arvidsson vs Alberta Brianti: This is a pick for the minimum stakes but I think the wrong player has been set as the underdog in the match.

I think Alberta Brianti has been set as the favourite after she beat Flavia Pennetta in the last Round, but I actually think Sofia Arvidsson has the better hard court pedigree.

Brianti has lost matches against Sophie Ferguson, Heather Watson and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn on the hard courts this year and she was beaten in the 1st Round of a Challenger tournament in the Bronx last year, a tournament in which her opponent reached the Final.

Arvidsson has won both previous matches against Brianti in straight sets, and that includes a win on the hard courts in Miami last year.

Arvidsson is not someone to back with any kind of certainty but, as I said above, I think she should be the favourite in this match.


MY PICKS: Double; Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sofia Arvidsson @ 2.18 Pinnacle (1 Unit)




WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 2.5 Units

Tennis Picks 22nd July ATP Hamburg Quarter Finals

It was another good day for the picks in Hamburg as we moved into the Quarter Final stage of the tournament.

Marin Cilic is still in business as our outright pick from this event, but he faces a tough match against Mikhail Youzhny, a player that has a 4-1 head to head record against him. Cilic has been effective in patches during the week, but that second serve remains a problem and his unforced error count could really work against him against a player with the ability Youzhny has.

The bookmakers seem to agree with the price shortening all the time for the Russian to come out on top. Personally I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Cilic can repeat his win from Marseille over Youzhny and still be involved in the tournament.

Others who may have backed Cilic at the start of the tournament do have the opportunity to lay him in the outright market at 10s on Betfair.

Overall, the Quarter Finals do not look that easy to predict as you can make a case for both sides in the first 3 matches to be played during the day. The Gael Monfils-Gilles Simon match looks very close to call although I do expect Monfils to eventually make his way into the Semi Final.

Youzhny is rightly the favourite on form in his match with Cilic but, as I have already mentioned, I am hopeful Cilic can spring a surprise.

The Florian Mayer-Nicolas Almagro match is an interesting one that the latter should win if he keeps serving the way he was today in his win over Phillip Kohlschreiber. However, Almagro lost his last match with Mayer and the German uses plenty of variation in his game that could cause Almagro problems if he is not quite up to par.


Now on to the Pick:

Jurgen Melzer vs Fernando Verdasco: Now I have backed Jurgen Melzer twice already this week and he has brought home the bacon both times, and now I feel I will be third time lucky too as I go back to the well with a player that had been struggling for form recently.

Melzer obviously must enjoy playing in Hamburg, reaching the Final last year and he has been fairly solid, if not spectacular, in his two matches this week.

He faces another lefty in the form of Fernando Verdasco- the Spaniard has really been struggling to put wins together although winning two matches already should give him confidence.

Out of the two players, I feel Verdasco's serve is a little more erratic, and I also think the Spaniard's groundstrokes have been inconsistent for much of the season. Obviously if he puts them together, he will give Melzer plenty of problems, but Verdasco has not done that too often.

Verdasco has only improved to 8-6 on the clay this season, another indicator of the struggles he has had considering he was 35-14 in his previous 2 seasons on the surface.

Fernando Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, but it was Melzer who won their last meeting. That match took place on the clay courts of Madrid as Melzer came through in straight sets. The Austrian had also pushed Verdasco to 3 sets in Barcelona on clay so he can match up against him.

Melzer has been listed as the underdog in this match and I think that is a price worth taking as my only pick from Hamburg tomorrow.


MY PICK: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Not including picks from 21st July Atlanta which is currently in a rain delay at the time of writing)

Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Hamburg

It was a very good day for the picks I made yesterday as well as for the majority of the favourites that played in Germany yesterday. In fact only Nikolay Davydenko lost as a favourite, going down to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe for the 2nd week in succession.

My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.

There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.

Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.

Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.

On to the Picks:


Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.

I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.

Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.

There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.


Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.

Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.

Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.


Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.

The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.

Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.

Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.

Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.


MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)

Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg

I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.

I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.

Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.

Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.

The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.

I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.

Now on to the Picks:

Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.

Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.

Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.

Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.

Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.

He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.

Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.

Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.

Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.

Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.

Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.

Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.

Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.

However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.

If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units