Tennis Picks July 30th

I am going to put all my picks from the tournaments running in this one thread today but I will update the weekly totals separately as I have been doing all week.

It was a disappointing evening as both Maria Sharapova and Juan Martin Del Potro exited the tournaments. The latter is more disappointing as my biggest outright back of the week and it sounds like he was just not at the races.

Players like Ernests Gulbis can be very dangerous when they get hot, the problem for him is consistency to play like that against the lesser players.

Juan Carlos Ferrero is now the last man standing in terms of outright picks, but he would cover the entire outlay of the week if he can go on and retain his title in Umag- I just hope he can do it without the breakdown he had yesterday against Carlos Berlocq when losing 5 games in a row in the 2nd set and seeing his 5-1 lead disappear. The Spaniard did come through in straight sets, but it would have been nice if he had got off court a little earlier as he should have done.

Now on to the Picks:

Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from last week in Hamburg and I would not be surprised if we get a similar result (last week Almagro won 6-1, 6-4).

Almagro has been solid all week behind his serve and even doing double duty yesterday did not slow him down when beating Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez. If he continues to serve like that, he will put a lot of pressure on his compatriot today.

Fernando Verdasco did not play that well for 2 sets yesterday against Julien Benneteau and I just feel he is not quite at the races mentally this season. He seems to get through against the lesser players but struggles when faced against someone who is playing well.

The court has played fairly quickly all week and I feel that will give Almagro the edge too so I will back him to come through with a bit to spare.

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games vs Alexandr Dolgopolov: If anyone followed the outright picks at the start of the week, we have already got Juan Carlos Ferrero at 4.00 to win this match and get through to the Final so they may not want to put a bit more on him here.

However, I do want to back him again as I feel the match up is more in Ferrero's favour than the layers think it is. He is fairly consistent from the back of the court and could grind down Dolgopolov here, although I would like to see the Spaniard take care of his serve a little more.

Dolgopolov has not been getting enough first serves in and that could give him more problems here against a player like Ferrero who has the big groundstrokes. A lot of second serves will allow Ferrero to dictate more points and that could be the edge to this match.

They also met here last year in the Quarter Final and Dolgopolov was beaten heavily and won just 3 games in the 2 sets they competed.

I dont think it will be a blowout like that, but I do think Ferrero will come through and reach his 3rd consecutive Final here.

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from Atlanta last week and I dont see any reason to change my mind but to predict Mardy Fish to come through in 2 sets again.

Harrison has had the 2 most productive weeks of his short career so far and has showed the heart and belief to come through some tight spots, particularly in the 2nd set against Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but this is a huge step up from the quality of opponents he has played so far this week and I struggle to see how he can do enough to affect the Fish game.

The one thing in Harrison's favour is the amount of tennis Mardy Fish has played recently and whether that catches up with him here. However, Fish has been taking his fitness as seriously as he ever has and I am not sure if his losing energy is just clutching at straws.

I just think the Fish game is too big at this moment in time for the improving Harrison and I think a similar scoreline to last weeks 6-2, 6-4 could be in the offing.

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This could be the case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for Ernests Gulbis following his impressive straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am of the feeling that the Latvian is a momentum player that could be tough to stop this week.

He has played some decent tennis this week to get this far and was more than a little unfortunate to lose to James Blake in the 1st Round in Atlanta last week and Gulbis' better performances have generally come on the hard courts in recent seasons.

Gulbis has all the attributes in his game to be a good hard court player, but sometimes it is the thing between his ears that lets him down. The confidence from the win over Del Potro should give him the boost to reach the Final this week.

Alex Bogomolov is a journeyman player having his best year on the main tour so will not be easy pickings. He has reached the Quarter Finals in 3 of the last 5 tournaments he has played and also made it through to the 3rd Round at Wimbledon in that time so is in decent form.

However, I think it could be telling that he has had a few problems with the bigger hitters on the tour and Gulbis will fit into that category. Bogomolov has lost to John Isner, Gilles Muller and Tomas Berdych in recent weeks and I think the pressure of trying to hold serve could be too much for him today.

Gulbis is not the best person to trust, but I think he should be too strong for the American tonight.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games @ 1.83 10Bet (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE GSTAAD/UMAG: + 5.96 Units

WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.38 Units

Tennis Picks July 29th Umag and Gstaad

This has to be a fairly quick post although there is time to get on the picks. Due to the late arrival of markets from the bookmakers, I don't have time to put all my analysis down, but take my word that I have been studying the form last night.

Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau


Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer


Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq


Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos




MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units

Tennis Picks July 28th Umag and Gstaad

It was a good day without picks in Umag for followers of the blog as Juan Carlos Ferrero moved through the the Quarter Finals after coming from a set behind to beat Ivan Ljubicic. That puts him through to a meeting with Carlos Berlocq in the next Round and I think Ferrero will be considered the favourite to get through to the Final from the position he is in.

I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.

Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.


Now on to the Picks:

Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.

The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.

Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.


Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.

Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.

However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.

Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.

I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.

Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.

Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.

I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.

I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.


MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units

Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg

I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.

I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.

Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.

Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.

The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.

I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.

Now on to the Picks:

Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.

Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.

Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.

Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.

Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.

He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.

Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.

Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.

Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.

Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.

Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.

Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.

Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.

However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.

If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units

Tennis Outright Picks July 11th-17th

The ATP Tour returns to its usual format this week as the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are behind us and we have a couple of tournaments running in Bastad, Sweden and in Stuttgart, Germany.

Both of these events are played on clay courts and it is seen as a good chance for some of the players to build points before the hard court season kicks off in August. The likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are not likely to have any action until the Montreal Masters that begins on August 8th, but that is not to say we dont have some strong fields this week.

There are a couple of doubts over the participation of players, but it should be a quality filled week of tennis on the circuit.


ATP Bastad
This tournament in Sweden sees 4 players from the top 15 taking part in the event and should be one of interest for the spectators as the top seed is Robin Soderling. Soderling pulled out of the Davis Cup tie against Serbia over the weekend and was ill the last time he took to the court when being defeated by Bernard Tomic at Wimbledon.

Soderling has really developed into a top class clay court player after it was considered his worst surface for much of his early career. This season it has taken the very best players to beat him on the surface and he has definite claims. However, he will likely have to face Tomas Berdych in the Semi Finals, although the Czech player has not been in the same form as last season.

The reason for Soderling's absence for the Davis Cup tie is also a concern, but the Swede does have a good recent record in this tournament, reaching the Final last year and finishing as Runner Up the year before.

The concerns surrounding Robin Soderling's health and Tomas Berdych's form means I will instead look at the bottom half of the draw for my pick.

David Ferrer's draw particularly stood out to me and it looks like the Number 2 seed has a fairly good chance of reaching the Final. However, the Spaniard was in the midst of a battle against Mardy Fish in the Davis Cup as I write this (Fish has just taken this match into a 4th set and we have already seen over 3 hours of tennis) and I am a little concerned that he will not take part in the tournament. Even though he has been given a bye into the 2nd Round, the mental energy being used in the Davis Cup may just work against him this week.

Ferrer has reached the Semi Final twice in his last 2 visits to the tournament, and was the Winner before that, but the issues surrounding his mental state, plus the long travel from Texas to Sweden makes the 2.75 being offered look extremely short.

Instead I will look at Ferrer's compratiot in the form of Nicolas Almagro in the outright market. Almagro is the Number 4 seed this week and is extremely comfortable on the clay courts.

Almagro is up to Number 13 in the World Rankings and has already won 3 titles this season, all the titles coming on clay courts. He too will be given a bye into the 2nd Round where he is scheduled to meet a Qualifier. The Spaniard is then seeded to meet Andrey Golubev, but either of the 4 possible opponents should be no match for him.

The biggest obstacle could be a potential Semi Final with Ferrer, a player that has beaten Almagro on all 7 occasions they have played, but there is no telling whether Ferrer is mentally ready to play this tournament and it could be another opponent on the line.

Another factor to help me feel a little more confident in backing Almagro is that he is the defending Champion here and has also reached the Quarter Final and finished as Runner Up in his last 2 appearances at the event.

Almagro is the 4th favourite to win the event, but he could find his path much clearer than the likes of Berdych and Soderling, especially if Ferrer is not quite up to his usual standards, and could be in line to win his 4th title of the season.


ATP Stuttgart
This tournament is headed up by Gael Monfils and it is no real surprise to see him at the top of the outright market too. However, Monfils has been handed a real tough 1st Round assignment against Victor Hanescu, even though the Frenchman has a 3-1 head to head record over him. Hanescu should provide problems, and actually beat Monfils the last time they played on a clay court.

The other seeds in the top half all have question marks against them- Florian Mayer was clearly suffering with some sort of injury during his Davis Cup defeat to Richard Gasquet so could have a couple of problems despite the relative ease of his draw through to the Quarter Finals.

Mikhail Youzhny has been handed a tough opener against Phillip Petzschner and also sees a potential clash with Juan Carlos Ferrero in the next Round, while Andreas Seppi has had a poor clay court season.

Therefore it seems best to concentrate on the bottom half of the draw where some significant players are in action.

Jurgen Melzer is the 2nd seed this year and is the 3rd favourite at the oddsmakers, but he has not had the best seasons so far. I do expect the Austrian to get through the early Rounds without too many problems but he does face a potentially tough Quarter Final regardless of who he meets there.

It seems the best section to pick a winner from could be the one where Nikolay Davydenko and Gilles Simon reside.

Now Nikolay Davydenko has always been a favourite of mine to watch, a player who is extremely consistent with his groundstrokes... Unfortunately, injury and lack of form has seen Davydenko fall away from the heights of around 18 months ago when he was one of the real dark horses in the Australian Open after winning the ATP End of year Championships.

There have been one or two signs that Davydenko may be coming back to form after he won in Munich on the clay earlier this season, but he seems to have taken a step back with 1 win from his last 4 tournaments played.

Davydenko has reached the Semi Finals here on a couple of occasions in the past, but the last 2 visits have been less memorable with a Quarter Final exit and a 2nd Round exit last season.

That leaves Gilles Simon as the player I like the look of the most. Simon is another player that has slipped from a career high ranking of 6 in January 2009 thanks to injury, although it looks like he is on the way back after moving back up to Number 18. It is unlikely that Simon reaches the dizzy heights of late 2008/early 2009 again, but he is once again competitive.

Simon does have 3 career titles on clay courts from the 8 he has won, and he did have a decent time during the clay court season and at the French Open.

The draw has also given Simon a chance to go deep in the tournament- he faces Albert Montanes in the 1st Round, but does hold a 3-1 head to head record against him with all the matches played on clay.

The Frenchman will then likely face Pablo Andujar, a clay court specialist, but one who should not have the consistency to derail Simon. He will then face Davydenko, a player he has beaten 5 times in a row before a potential Semi Final with Melzer.

Melzer leads the head to head with Simon 2-1, and did beat him in 5 sets on the clay in a Davis Cup match, but it is not exactly clear that Melzer will reach this stage with a tough Quarter Final in his way.

I believe if Simon can get through the Final, he will have the confidence to take on all of his prospective opponents, and he could make these odds on him winning his 2nd title of the season look silly.


OUTRIGHT PICKS: Nicolas Almagro to win Bastad @ 6.5 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Gilles Simon to win Stuttgart @ 8.0 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
E/W is 0.5 the odds for the win and will pay out if the player reaches the Final