Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 30th July)

While there is a bit of a wait between the opening Grand Slam and the second one of a season, the gaps between the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open are much shorter.

The titles were handed out at the third Grand Slam of the season earlier this month, but the Canadian Masters has begun and is a big part of the build up towards the US Open.

Cincinnati is another big stop between now and the final Grand Slam of the season beginning in New York City, but the focus is on this expanded tournament which is split between venues in Toronto and Montreal,

Some big names are missing out and should be ready to return when Cincinnati begins, but that means there is a chance to put a confidence building tournament in the books for those involved. Big Ranking points can also be earned ahead of two more important tournaments coming up in the next few weeks and there are still many players involved who will feel they are genuine contenders to win the next Major.

Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 games v Ethan Quinn: The build up to the final Grand Slam of the season continues with the Canadian Masters one of two big events before the US Open gets underway in New York City.

For those playing in the ATP event in Toronto, it does feel like a big opportunity has opened up with some many of the top names missing.

Players like Brandon Nakashima have a chance to pick up valuable Ranking points that may mean a Seed at his home Grand Slam event and the 23 year old arrives having reached the Quarter Final in Washington. His run was only ended by eventual Champion Alex De Minaur and Brandon Nakashima continues to be a player who is well suited to the hard courts, but perhaps not quite ready to become the latest American to have a really deep run in a Grand Slam event.

There is nothing much wrong with the serving numbers, but Brandon Nakashima may be the first to admit that he has not found the consistency he may have hoped when it comes to the return. The numbers on that side of the court have remained steady on this surface, but Nakashima would have hoped to have shown better signs of development.

It also should be noted that Brandon Nakashima has really struggled when it comes to playing those he is not expected to beat compared with those that he will feel he is favoured against. The service numbers are decent enough when facing higher Ranked players, but the return is really problematic in those matches, whereas the World Number 32 has been so much better when facing those Ranked lower than himself.

Fortunately for Brandon Nakashima, that is the case in this Second Round match ahainst compatriot Ethan Quinn who reached his career high World Ranking mark of Number 82 earlier this month.

Much like so many players from the United States, Ethan Quinn is very comfortable on the hard courts, although his numbers are still a work in progress. At 21 years old and without the experiences of others, that is not a big surprise and it has been tough work for Ethan Quinn when facing top 100 Ranked opponents, even on a familiar surface like this one.

Earlier in the year, Ethan Quinn did take a set from Tommy Paul in Dallas, while he has beaten Christoper O'Connell in the First Round in Toronto. However, Quinn was second best when facing Brandon Nakashima last week in Washington and it does feel like the higher Ranked American is going to be able to frank that victory with another north of the border.

Ethan Quinn has served well in the matches against the top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced, but the return has not really made the kind of impact he would have hoped. It was the case when losing to Brandon Nakashima in Washington and eventually the scoreboard pressure and feeling that 'you must hold at all costs' can wear on an inexperienced player.

The spread is potentially hazardous when you think of some of the issues Brandon Nakashima has had on return, but he was able to exert enough pressure in the win in the last tournament and can likely do the same here.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Lulu Sun: Any player who reaches the Final of a Grand Slam is very successful at their job, but there is no doubt that the Wimbledon Final would have been a really tough experience for Amanda Anisimova.

She will look back at the grass court season with a real fondness and she enters the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time.

However, this is the first match back since the Wimbledon Final when the American failed to win a match and she will need the fans to get behind her.

The return takes place in Montreal and Amanda Anisimova is a very comfortable hard court player, while she may benefit from facing Lulu Sun who has really had a very difficult year on the surface.

The 24 year old was within the top 40 in the World Rankings ten months ago, but Lulu Sun has slipped all the way back to World Number 97 as the lossed have piled up. It is important to have won her First Round match and Sun has the chance to turn things back around, but the lower Ranked player is just 4-10 on the hard courts in 2025 and this is a significant challenge for her, especially if Amanda Anisimova has overcome what happened in London earlier in the month.

Lulu Sun is a lefty and the serve has been a solid weapon for her, but she has struggled to make an impact on the return and that could show up in this Second Round match.

It may take a set for Amanda Anisimova to settle on the court, but she can move through the gears with her aggressive returning and the serve to contain the threat from the other side of the net. Covering will not be easy, but the American may return with a confident win and one that reminds the rest of the field about the yeat that Amanda Anisimova has been putting together.

Naomi Osaka v Liudmila Samsonova: She clearly was not very happy with some of the questions posed to her after the defeat in Washington, but Naomi Osaka will be looking to make her biggest impact on the court at the Canadian Masters.

There has been enough time since Naomi Osaka returned to the court to have expected her to have a stronger World Ranking than her current mark.

Inconsistency continues to blight her tennis, even if the numbers have been strong and Naomi Osaka will be keen to put some strong results together in what should be her strongest surface. It may have been a while, but Osaka does hold four hard court Grand Slam titles and the style is well suited to those in North America.

She was a pretty comfortable winner in the First Round, but Naomi Osaka has not had the kind of impact on the Tour as she would have hoped.

However, there is an opportunity to reach the Third Round here in Montreal when Naomi Osaka takes on Liudmila Samsonova, even though the latter was able to win their most recent match on the grass courts in the build towards Wimbledon. That was a match that Osaka will feel she should have won, while the former World Number 1 has beaten the current World Number 16 twice on the hard courts of North America in Indian Wells (2024) and Miami (2025).

Naomi Osaka has been dominant in those wins, while Liudmila Samsonova has not been producing the strongest numbers on the hard courts over the last eighteen months.

The higher Ranked player is a solid hard court performer, but Samsonova may struggle to get into the Naomi Osaka service games, while also having a vulnerable second serve that can be attacked.

Too often Naomi Osaka has been in a position to win matches that she has lost, but the confidence will be there within this match up thanks to the two hard court wins produced over Liudmila Samsonova.

That should be a factor in this Second Round match and the former World Number 1 can come out on top.

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: This is going to be the twelfth time that Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari are facing each other and it is the American who has been getting the better of the recent matches.

The hard courts are a very comfortable surface for Jessica Pegula, but consistency has long been her biggest problem at the biggest events.

She did reach the US Open Final last year and that means Jessica Pegula has a lot of Ranking points to defend in the next six weeks, but one Fourth Round in three Grand Slams is a disappointing return in 2025. After winning a title on the grass, Pegula would not have expected to have been dumped out of Wimbledon in the First Round and the window does feel like it is closing as far as winning a Major is concerned.

An early loss in Washington is far from ideal preparation, but overall the hard court successes in 2025 makes Jessica Pegula a favourite to move into the Third Round.

Jessica Pegula may be older than Maria Sakkari, but the decline of the latter has been much sharper and she is now playing as the World Number 72. It is imperative for Maria Sakkari to begin to turn that around and avoid having to Qualify for some of the bigger events on the Tour and she does need to back up her Quarter Final run in Washington last week.

Holding a 9-12 record on the hard courts, Maria Sakkari has to find a way to break through the Pegula defences without losing her own consistency.

Ultimately she has not been returning as well as her opponent and Maria Sakkari has a second serve that can be exploited.

The second serve has been attacked relentlessly by Jessica Pegula in the three most recent meetings, all on the hard courts, and that has seen the American dominate those matches. The most recent came earlier this year before the Australian Open and Jessica Pegula looks capable of getting back to winning ways against an old rival who has not been playing with the same kind of consistency as she once did.

MY PICKS: Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Naomi Osaka @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 30th July)

Ever since the draw at the French Open, I have had a feeling that Rafael Nadal would find a way to return to Roland Garros and beyond the Olympic Games.

Losing to Alexander Zverev in a competitive match might have felt a little better for Nadal and his fans when noting that the same player reached the French Open Final and was actually leading 2-1 in sets against Carlos Alcaraz.

Injury is tough to deal with from a mental point of view and Rafael Nadal will have to show a real willingness to battle through some of the pain if he is going to have one more run. He is playing in Paris at less than 100%, but the second set performance against Novak Djokovic will have just acted as a reminder of how close Nadal is to being able to challenge the top players on the Tour.

It would be a shame if his last two appearances at Roland Garros were the defeats suffered to Zverev and Djokovic, although it is better than losing to players who would not have competed with Rafael Nadal at his very best. At least those two players can say they have stood up to Nadal at his best on the clay, but the feeling remains that the Spaniard may not be quite ready to call time on his career.

His attention will turn to the Doubles Tournament the rest of the way and Novak Djokovic will continue on his path towards securing a first Gold Medal to complete his collection of trophies/medals as a tennis player.

A day of rest before the Third Round will help Djokovic, who has clearly not operating at full strength, while the draw is panning out pretty well for the former World Number 1. The main threat is still going on the other side of the draw in Carlos Alcaraz, at least at the time of writing, but Djokovic has to be feeling pretty good about his chances in Paris this week.

The women's event will already get into the Third Round action on Tuesday with the entire Round played ahead of the Wednesday Quarter Final matches.

Players will certainly begin to think about winning a Medal for their nation with two wins under their belts, but the matches look much more competitive now and this is a test for all still involved in this tournament.

Mariano Navone + 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: The Olympic Games is the pinnacle for so many sports, but you cannot really say the same for tennis.

It is a reason that so many players have been willing to skip the event in order to prepare for the US Open, while others have arrived late in Paris after deciding to play tournaments to build up Ranking points. One of those late arrivals is Lorenzo Musetti who reached the Final in Umag to continue what has been an impressive summer following the French Open.

Most would expect his best results to be produced on the clay courts, but the Italian reached the Semi Final in Stuttgart on the grass and followed up with a Runners Up finish at Queen's Club before an impressive Semi Final run at Wimbledon. Confidence is clearly high right now and the performances in Umag will have just reminded Lorenzo Musetti of his capabilities on the clay courts after a pretty poor year on the surface.

In saying that, it should be noted that Lorenzo Musetti reached the Final of a couple of Challenger events around the early defeats at the Madrid and Rome Masters. He pushed Novak Djokovic to five sets in losing to the former World Number 1 in the Third Round at Roland Garros, and the run to the Final in Umag last week and the win over Gael Monfils in the First Round here will give Musetti plenty of belief.

He is looking to earn a measure of revenge over Mariano Navone who beat Musetti in the Final of the Challenger event played in Cagliari in early May.

Mariano Navone had a solid win over Nuno Borges in the First Round at the Olympic Games, and won that title in Cagliari as mentioned. However, the last couple of months have been littered with a lot more defeats than victories and that will have knocked some of the confidence, even if a couple of the losses were in competitive matches.

Like many from Argentina, Mariano Navone is very comfortable on the clay courts and that will certainly help him in this Second Round match. He has a 5-4 record on the clay when facing an opponent Ranked inside the top 50 in 2024, and that win over Lorenzo Musetti in Cagliari will certainly fuel the belief of earning an upset.

Lorenzo Musetti is playing the superior tennis of the two players since the French Open, but Navone can certainly force him to dig deep to earn a place in the Third Round the latter looks to be given enough games to be worth backing.

Camila Osorio + 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: Being a successful Junior player and being able to bring that game to the pro Tour is always a tough challenge and that has certainly been the case for Camila Osorio.

The Colombian had reached as high as Number 33 in the World Rankings a little over two years ago, but it has been a difficult twelve months and she has dropped down to World Number 83. She will be inspired to represent her nation at the Olympic Games and Camila Osorio has produced a couple of solid wins over higher Ranked opponents in each of the last two Rounds.

Those wins have to give Camila Osorio belief in her tennis and it does feel like she is being overlooked in this Third Round match.

Danielle Collins is in her final year on the Tour and finishing with an Olympic Medal would be a massive achievement, but the American is not exactly at her best on the clay courts. The First Round win over Laura Siegemund ended prematurely with injury meaning the German had to retire mid-match, while Danielle Collins came through in three sets against veteran Caroline Wozniacki on Monday.

The American did reach win the title in Charleston and the Semi Final in Rome, while she was also a Runner Up in Strasbourg. It has comfortably been her most productive year on the clay courts, which makes Danielle Collins a threat in this draw, but she does not always make her own life as easy as it could be.

Much of that is down to the fact that Collins can be very aggressive on the court and going for her shots can lead to more errors. On a surface where patience can be so important, Danielle Collins has perhaps not always had the right approach to matches and someone like Camila Osorio can extract the mistakes with her ability to move around the court.

The reality is that Danielle Collins should win the match, but covering this big mark may be tough for her if Camila Osorio maintains the form shown in the last couple of Rounds. At the very least Osorio can take a set and that may be enough to move into a position to keep this one close enough to make the handicap start a telling one.

You have to respect the fact that Collins has the tennis to blitz past anyone, but Camila Osorio is a potential banana skin and one that should be afforded more respect of her own.

MY PICKS: Mariano Navone + 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Camila Osorio + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 5-3, + 2.68 Units (16 Units Staked, + 16.75% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 7 Picks 2021 (July 30th)

We are down to the business end of the Tokyo Olympics as far as the Tennis tournament goes and over the weekend the Medals will be handed out.

The Women's Gold and Bronze Medal matches have been put together, while the Men's line up will be completed on Friday.

Karen Khachanov v Pablo Carreno Busta: Three of the four players left in the Men's draw are going to be taking home a Medal from the Olympic Games, but first they get to play for the opportunity to guarantee a Medal. The first Semi Final in Tokyo sees two players who have flown under the radar make their way through the bottom half of the draw and you would have to say that the winner of this Semi Final is likely going to head into the Gold Medal match as a significant underdog.

That is a worry for another day for Karen Khachanov and Pablo Carreno Busta as they look to take their place in the Final on Sunday and both players will feel pretty good about their chances having worked their way through four matches here.

Karen Khachanov has backed up a strong performance at Wimbledon and he is a very confident hard court player, although the relatively slower conditions in Tokyo are perhaps going to favour Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has previously reached the US Open Semi Final and is a more confident hard court player than some may assume because of his nationality, but Pablo Carreno Busta has shown time and again that he can't be underestimated on this surface.

His numbers are far from eye-catching, but you have to credit Pablo Carreno Busta for being able to play his best tennis at critical points within matches. Pablo Carreno Busta is making full use of his serve this week and his win over Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final was particularly impressive, although the margins have been tight and that is going to be encouraging for the next Russian he is going to face in this tournament.

A huge amount of time has been spent on court by Karen Khachanov over the last two Rounds and it has been incredibly hot in Tokyo which does make you wonder if it is going to be a telling factor in this Semi Final. However, Pablo Carreno Busta has been forced to dig plenty deep in his own matches and he is now going to have to face up to the Karen Khachanov serve which has been a huge part of the successes the Russian player has had in the event.

Karen Khachanov has been serving pretty big throughout the tournament and that is huge for him if he is going to reach the Gold Medal match. It has helped him get his teeth into the return games and I think it may give Khachanov the slightest of advantages in this match.

Pablo Carreno Busta won their sole meeting in 2021, although that came on a clay court and that may be a surface in which the Spaniard would be favoured. The last two hard court matches have been won by Karen Khachanov though and he has held 84% of the service games played against Pablo Carreno Busta compared with an 80% mark for the latter.

Last year Karen Khachanov beat Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets in Cincinnati, but that is a much faster surface than the one they have seemingly been playing on in Tokyo. I honestly don't think there will be much between the players, but Karen Khachanov has been producing the higher level at this tournament of the two and having the confidence of knowing he has won the last two times the players have met on a hard court may give the underdog enough to come through with another victory.

Alexander Zverev + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: He is making history in each passing week, but the run to the Olympic Games Semi Final has been incredibly straight-forward for Novak Djokovic and just underlines how difficult it is going to be to stop the World Number completing the Golden Slam. He will become the first men's player to do that and only the second tennis player to ever to do that, but Novak Djokovic is someone who wants to cement his legacy in the sport and chasing records motivates him.

Novak Djokovic has dropped just seventeen games in his four wins in Tokyo and he needed a little over an hour to end the home hopes of a Tennis Medal. The numbers over the first four matches are incredible and Novak Djokovic has hammered every opponent he has played, while he has only dropped his serve once in the four matches completed.

The serve may still have room for improvement, but Novak Djokovic is returning at such a high level that opponents are feeling the pressure every time they step up to the line. He has broken at least three times in each match played in the tournament and Novak Djokovic has won over 50% of the return points played in three of the four matches.

All of this points to a very difficult challenge for Alexander Zverev, although the German is the only player that has come close to matching the intensity and consistency of the World Number 1. However, Alexander Zverev does have a 2-6 head to head record against Novak Djokovic and he has lost both matches played against him this year and both of those have come on the hard courts.

The defeat at the Australian Open was competitive though and Alexander Zverev has given Novak Djokovic more to think about than just about anybody playing on the Tour over the last twelve months. That will be encouraging, while Alexander Zverev has a massive serve that can at least prevent Novak Djokovic from dominating the return games to the same standard he has in this tournament and for much of the last few seasons on the Tour.

Playing the big points more effectively is important for Alexander Zverev if he is going to have any chance of the upset, but he does produce enough from the serve to expect him to give Novak Djokovic the most to think about in this tournament so far. In their match at the Australian Open, Alexander Zverev actually created more break point chances than Novak Djokovic and it is something that he has to build upon if he is going to find a way to reach the Gold Medal match and end the dreams of the World Number 1.

Alexander Zverev has won the first set in each of the last two matches against Novak Djokovic on a hard court, but he would not have covered with this start in either as the World Number 1 rallied. He is in fine form in this tournament, but even then it is difficult to imagine the overall upset will be completed, although I do think the numbers in their two matches in 2021 suggests the German can keep this one close with the level he has shown.

It is very difficult to oppose Novak Djokovic who is clearly the best player in the world, but I am looking for Alexander Zverev to offer the strongest challenge that the World Number 1 has faced in Tokyo. Serving at his best is key for Zverev, but if he can do that he can move into a position to keep this match very close and I will back him with the start offered.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2020- Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman (August 1st)

Who would have thought that the Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury Rematch was going to be the last really big Boxing event for months?

That fight might only have occurred five months ago, but with all the goings on in the world it does feel like it has been a lot, lot longer than that.

Things have yet to return to normal, but the UFC have shown you can put on fascinating cards even though those have to be behind closed doors- their business model is a lot different to Boxing which means those big fights are easier to arrange, but Dana White has shown you can put the right protocols in place to have combat sports return even in the current environment.

Eddie Hearn was always going to try and do something a bit special and organising four weeks of Fight Camps in his back garden is definitely a bit different. The first of those four weeks begins on August 1st and, unlike some other promoters, Hearn is making sure they are four good looking cards.

The final one looks the best with the likes of Dillian Whyte, Alexander Povetkin, Katie Taylor and Delfine Persoon all on that one, but the opening weekend is giving the fans some good looking fights albeit at a lower level than those World level fights arriving later in the month.

We also have a couple other cards taking place this week which means the Boxing begins on Friday and goes through to the early hours of Sunday morning in the United Kingdom.

While it is going to take a while for things to get back to the normality of seeing fans in the stands and watching the big names face each other, it is good to have Boxing back and there are plenty of big fights to look forward to.


The early suspension of sporting events came at a time when the 2020 Boxing season has not really gotten underway and so there have been very few picks made so far this year. Things should be different over the next month with the cards that are in place, but the situation could change quickly and all it takes is a couple of failed tests and these cards could all have a different feel.

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy that are involved in all of these events being put together for our entertainment.

Lyndon Arthur vs Dec Spelman

If it wasn't for the Covid crisis that took over the world, Lyndon Arthur would have been set to fight Anthony Yarde as he looks to prove himself the best in Britain at Light Heavyweight level.

Make no mistake, it was a huge step up for Arthur who is unbeaten in sixteen fights but who would then be going in with a former World Title challenger. Anthony Yarde was not far away from Knocking Out Sergey Kovalev, but for now Arthur has to focus on other targets before trying to renew hostilities with the 'Lion in the Camp'.

That fight may be put together before the end of the year and confidence has not been dampened in the meantime. Lyndon Arthur has made it clear that he expects to be considered better than both Yarde and Joshua Buatsi by the end of 2020, two high profile Light Heavyweights that are close to World level already.

It will be sounding like a very hollow statement if Arthur is not able to beat Dec Spelman in this main event fight from the BT Studios in Stratford on Friday evening.

Dec Spelman has a 16-3 record and two of those losses have come against English Light Heavyweight Champion Shakan Pitters. The other defeat came to Scott Westgarth who tragically later passed away and it is that event which inspires Spelman to try and be the very best he can be.

I have no doubt that Spelman will come forward and try and close the gap to the bigger man, but I also have to be wary of the fact that the Boxer has been Knocked Down a couple of times. Now he is facing a pretty big hitter in Lyndon Arthur who has stopped twelve of his sixteen beaten opponents and even managed to put down tough Emmanuel Anim when winning the Commonwealth Light Heavyweight Title.

He won't need to go looking for Spelman in this Title fight and I think that will play into Lyndon Arthur's hands, which look to be heavier than his opponent's. Over Twelve Rounds I would expect Arthur to begin to punish Dec Spelman and it may result in either the referee or the corner looking to pull out their man.

The Mancunian has suggested that he could finish this early, but I do give Dec Spelman's toughness some credit and will just look for Arthur to find a finish at some point over the thirty-six minutes they are in the ring with each other.

Jordan Gill vs Reece Bellotti

Both fighters are under 30 years old, but this is very much a crossroads night for both Jordan Gill and Reece Bellotti who both looked destined for big things before running into upset losses.

Twenty-three straight wins for Jordan Gill had him headlining events, but he was stunned in being stopped by Enrique Tinoco and in the last fifteen months he has had just six more Rounds since then.

Also, Jordan Gill has dealt with some health issues which even put his Boxing career in jeopardy and you do have to put this together and begin to wonder how much he has left to give. There is no doubting the skill levels of Gill and he is the superior Boxer in this fight, but you do have to wonder how much his body can take if Reece Bellotti can fire up some of the big punches he is known for.

A misdiagnosis hindered Jordan Gill's ability to move past his Thyroid Disease, but he has made it clear that he is better now and ready to refocus on his Boxing career which stalled in that loss last year.

Jordan Gill will be looking to contain the press that Reece Bellotti is going to try and put on him and he should be able to get the better of the pure Boxing exchanges. However, Bellotti has been known to work hard and hit harder even though he has been beaten in three of his last five fights.

They have a common opponent in Ryan Doyle who stopped Reece Bellotti in an upset before being stopped by Jordan Gill in his next fight. I don't think that is going to be something that bothers Bellotti who has also suffered a couple of Split Decision defeats since then and the loss to Doyle can be put down to a lack of focus on the part of the Watford man.

Reece Bellotti knows it is looking like a 'win or bust' night for him on Saturday and I think that inspires him to close the gap whenever he can and unload on Jordan Gill. A counter could be his downfall, but Bellotti will want to test out the Gill body and see whether he is capable of standing up to his level of puncher having stopped twelve of the fourteen fighters he has beaten in the pro ranks.

On the cards I think it will be very difficult for Bellotti to win this fight, but I do think he is good enough to force the fight and make Jordan Gill work at a pace he may not like. That pressure and aggression could see Bellotti sneak a couple of early Rounds and I think he will be the fighter who comes on strong the longer this goes on.

It is a Ten Rounder which lessens the enthusiasm to back Reece Bellotti, but I do think this is a closer fight than the oddsmakers do. If Jordan Gill is still having a few health issues and is perhaps a little soft in the body, Reece Bellotti hits hard enough to ask a lot of questions and I think he is worth a small interest to earn the big upset.

The reality is that Jordan Gill prior to the loss to Tinoco would have been a similar price to the one we are seeing for this one in my opinion- only now we know Gill might not be the most confident in being able to absorb punishment in the body and he has largely been inactive over the last fifteen months.

Reece Bellotti has not exactly been fighting every week, but he has had fourteen Rounds in the bank since Jordan Gill's defeat in May 2019 and that is eight more Rounds than his opponent. As long as Reece Bellotti isn't reckless, I think he can make this very competitive and force the pace against a superior Boxer, one that Jordan Gill may not enjoy.

Dalton Smith vs Nathan Bennett

A strong amateur career was not signed off with an appearance at the 2020 Olympics and with the way things have gone in the world it might have been the best decision Dalton Smith has made.

He enters his sixth professional fight this weekend and is a big favourite to see off 9-1 Nathan Bennett, although the latter is speaking confidently about taking an opportunity to change his life.

An upset win for Bennett will do that as he will likely get plenty more work with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotion, but this will be the first time the Liverpudlian has taken on an opponent with a winning record. Only two stoppages in nine wins suggests Nathan Bennett doesn't really hit hard enough to earn the respect of Sheffield's most successful amateur Boxer who has stopped his last four opponents since turning professional.

Dalton Smith has revealed he had a lot of hand injuries during his time in the amateurs, but he feels those are now behind him and he has yet to be taken beyond the Fourth Round. This is the next step on his progression as a Boxer as he moves into his first fight scheduled for more than Six Rounds, but I do think Smith can get on top early and have another relatively early night.

There are levels in Boxing and I expect Smith to clearly show he is levels above Nathan Bennett. I expect the latter to give it a go, but I think he will quickly learn that his opponent has the heavier hands and I do think Dalton Smith gets this over with in the first half of the scheduled Eight Rounds.

Fabio Wardley vs Simon Vallily

With very little experience, Fabio Wardley decided to move into the professional Heavyweight ranks of Boxing and so far it is so good for Dillian Whyte's protege. We are going to learn a lot more about Wardley on Saturday evening as he gets set to take on Simon Vallily who looks to be the toughest opponent of his relatively young career so far.

Size is very much on the side of Fabio Wardley, but he has also displayed plenty of athleticism in his career so far. However, Simon Vallily will be the first to tell you that Wardley has not fought anyone of note yet and he wants to bring the fight to the 25 year old and see exactly what he is made of.

Simon Vallily moved up to Heavyweight having lost the last fight at Cruiserweight to Craig Glover. Since then he has four fights at this weight, won three by stoppage and also beat common opponent with Wardley in Phil Williams. Simon Vallily needed the cards to earn the win over Williams but Fabio Wardley stopped him in Three Rounds, although that rarely means a lot in Boxing.

What it should underline is that Wardley is the bigger puncher in this contest and a lot is going to depend on how much Vallily can take from him. All of the indications from the underdog is that he is looking to test Fabio Wardley and will go looking for him and I am not sure that is the right approach at a weight where Wardley is the more natural.

In his two stoppages at Cruiserweight, Simon Vallily was knocked down early in both although one of those defeats came against the quality of Mairis Breidis. You do have to question how much he can take from someone like Fabio Wardley who clearly does hit very hard and I think this could be a rough, early night for the veteran fighter.

I expect Simon Vallily to show heart and guts, but Wardley will be expected to have too much for him. He sets up his shots well and I think once he has Vallily hurt he will get the job done, although Fabio Wardley still has plenty of learning to do before he is ready to take the next steps in his career.

The anger displayed from Simon Vallily in the last presser may work into Fabio Wardley's hands who may not have to look too far to find his target in this bout.

James Tennyson vs Gavin Gwynne

There are some good looking fights on the opening card that Matchroom have put together in Eddie Hearn's back garden and this looks like being another.

James Tennyson has very little give in him and he takes on a tough Welshman in Gavin Gwynne who has a single loss on his record against Joe Cordina last year.

His Northern Irish opponent has been beaten three times and all by stoppage, but Tennyson has looked stronger at Lightweight and has four wins behind him and all before the scheduled Rounds were completed. Three of the four fighters faced since his loss to Tevin Farmer have had winning records when they have entered the ring and the stoppage of Craig Evans in November 2019 was a very strong win for James Tennyson.

Neither has been in the ring in 2020 which means there are some doubts as to how they are feeling as they deal with ring rustiness, but I can't see anything but a physical, tough fight where the two Boxers will be trading some heavy leather for as long as it lasts.

Gavin Gwynne doesn't have the strongest of resumes, and he came up short when fighting for the British Lightweight Title last year. However there is no doubting that he won't take a backward step in this one and Gwynne may be the naturally bigger man having had some fights at the Light Welterweight Division since turning professional.

The experience edge may be with James Tennyson who has had more fights and fought for a World Title, but being the bigger man has to be a factor for Gavin Gwynne. He may try and outbox Tennyson using his length, but much is going to depend on how he handles the power that the Northern Irishman has clearly brought up to the Lightweight Division.

It really does feel like both men may end up meeting in the middle of the ring and letting their hands go and Gavin Gwynne will be well aware that as hard as James Tennyson hits, he has been stopped in all three of his previous defeats. Those have come at the hands of smaller men than Gwynne, although two stoppages in twelve wins for the underdog is not exactly screaming out 'Knock Out' in this one.

He is a tough fighter though and I think this is going to be a bout in which James Tennyson is going to have to wear down Gavin Gwynne. The latter may try and use his size to keep clear of the heavy artillery that is going to be thrown his way, but I think eventually we will see Tennyson catch up to him and that should lead to a stoppage win for the favourite.

Stopping Gavin Gwynne will really lay down a marker for the future for James Tennyson and I think the fighter from Belfast will eventually be able to do that.

Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman

It doesn't feel that long ago that Ted Cheeseman was headlining events and looking like a Boxer that was going to be pushed along for World honours.

Things have not really gone as expected for Cheeseman since 2019 and he has not won any of his last three fights, losing two and earning a draw in the other. Out of the ring issues have not helped Ted Cheeseman either, but the 24 year old will be frustrated that the last Decision went against him when facing Scott Fitzgerald.

Some will think it is harsh to suggest it is a crossroads fight for both Boxers, but you have to believe that is the case. Ted Cheeseman can't afford to drop another defeat to a British level opponent, while in the other corner Sam Eggington has already been fortunate enough to remain on track for a World Title bid despite having six defeats already.

Every time it has felt like Sam Eggington has hit a wall in his career he has bounced back with some big performances and I do think the fan friendly style is giving him more opportunities than others may have not been afforded.

This should be another one, although you can see a situation where Ted Cheeseman looks to showcase his superior Boxing skills and pick off the rushing Sam Eggington. That was the tactic employed in the close defeat to Scott Fitzgerald, although Cheeseman is looking to impose himself and bully his opponent a little more in this one.

For the early Rounds I do think Cheeseman will look to frustrate Eggington before he begins to break down what have been vulnerable defences showed by the latter. Ted Cheeseman is indicating he is in a much better space mentally now and I do think he will want to avoid another Decision he doesn't agree with having felt he did enough to beat Fitzgerald and Kieron Conway.

I have no doubt that the Sam Eggington tactic will be to get forward and try and land as much as possible to allow his power to make the difference. Ultimately he has been found out when he has stepped up and I do think Ted Cheeseman has better all around skills which will allow him to dictate the direction in which this fight goes.

A points Decision would not surprise me in favour of Ted Cheeseman, but I do think he will push for the stoppage once he gets through the early storm. Sitting down on a few shots against Sam Eggington who likes to defend using his head rather than his hands could prove to be telling by the latter Rounds and I do think Cheeseman will look to settle the fight without the need for the judges.

The last two defeats suffered by Sam Eggington have come in stoppages and I do think Ted Cheeseman might have enough volume to secure another one late on in this bout.

MY PICKS: Lyndon Arthur to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Reece Bellotti @ 4.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Fabio Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
James Tennyson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 30th)

There are plenty of matches scheduled for Tuesday at the various tournaments being played and you can read my selections from the First Round below.

I have noted that the ATP Washington event will move onto the Second Round on Tuesday too, but those markets have yet to be formulated and any Picks from those matches scheduled for the day will be added to this thread on the day around lunchtime.

At that point I will also update the weekly totals after a mixed start to the week with two of the three underdogs I picked outright losing in the final set. Hopefully Tuesday will prove to be a much more productive day and get this week moved back into the black.


Cori Gauff - 2.5 games v Zarina Diyas: A huge spotlight shone on Cori Gauff at Wimbledon earlier this month as the 15 year old Qualified for the main draw and then reached the second week of the third Grand Slam of the 2019 season. The potential the young American has shown seemed to come to fruition in SW19, but the new expectations and exposure Gauff had means expectations have been raised and her own fanbase has also increased tremendously.

Cori Gauff is still at an age where she is not allowed to join the Tour full time unlike in past years and that means she has to pick and choose her events. It also means it is difficult for Gauff to improve her immediate World Ranking to ensure automatic entry into some of the tournaments to be played this summer, but Gauff was high enough to enter the Washington Qualifiers and made light work of her two opponents to reach the main draw.

Her peak World Ranking came at the end of Wimbledon, but Cori Gauff is almost certainly going to move above that mark as long as she can win at least one match in the main draw in the nation's capital. She is favoured to see off Zarina Diyas, but the veteran is someone that has to be respected in this First Round match.

There have been some solid numbers produced by Diyas on the hard courts in the last couple of years, but she has not been as strong on the surface at the main WTA level in 2019. Zarina Diyas has played well in a couple of ITF events which have seen her reach 17 hard court wins for the season, but only 6 of those have come at this level as the Kazakhstan player has seen her numbers drop on both the serve and the return compared with 2018.

This is only the second top 100 Ranked player that Gauff would have played on the hard courts in 2019 and she was comfortably beaten by Daria Kasatkina in the Second Round in Miami back in March. It has to be a concern when backing her as the favourite as there is limited numbers that we can look at considering the lack of main Tour tennis the young American has played.

We do know that Cori Gauff has a very good serve that should be very effective on the hard courts if Zarina Diyas is not quite up to her best level on the return. The latter has also been beaten by a couple of young, up and coming opponents already on this surface in 2019 although Diyas has only lost one match out of six played against someone Ranked outside the top 100.

I do think Gauff is going to be over-rated by the layers on the form she showed at Wimbledon, but I think this is a good chance for her to come through the First Round in Washington. The veteran won't roll over easily, but Zarina Diyas has lost to some of the younger players on the Tour who are looking to make their step up onto the main Tour level and I think Gauff can add to that list against her.


Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Allie Kiick: There are some really talented players coming through the ranks in American tennis, but Allie Kiick has been given a Wild Card into the Washington main draw despite not really being amongst the players with big expectations on their shoulders. She is Ranked at Number 130, although Kiick would likely surpass her career best mark of Number 126 if she can win this First Round match.

It won't be easy for the American considering the lack of tennis she has played at this level. Allie Kiick was beaten in the opening Qualifying Rounds in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami and also failed to get through the Qualifiers to reach the Australian Open main draw.

A couple of solid runs at the level below the main WTA Tour would have given Kiick some belief, but now she faces a quality operator in Monica Puig in the First Round in Washington.

To be honest this has not been a great season for Puig who won the Olympic Gold Medal on a hard court in 2016. In each of the last three seasons Puig has produced at least 22 wins on the hard courts, but she is 4-7 in 2019 and her service numbers are considerably down on the standards she has set between 2016 and 2018.

Even the return of serve is slightly down on her numbers, but Puig has felt the pressure of not being to get through her service games as effectively as she has previously. It does make her a vulnerable player to back, especially as she has not played any competitive tennis since going out in the Second Round at Wimbledon, but the Puerto Rican should be happy with the match up here.

The Allie Kiick return could be a big weapon for her if the upset is going to be secured, but I also expect her own serve to be challenged by Monica Puig. The key for the latter is to not give her opponent too much confidence by making a slow start in this match and as long as she can avoid doing that, I think Puig can win and cover in this one.


Donna Vekic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: At 23 years old it may be something of a surprise to read that I think Donna Vekic needs to start making serious inroads with her career if she is going to fulfil the potential so many believed she had. It does feel like Vekic has been on the Tour forever, but there might not be a big window for her to develop into a top 10 player with a new crop of talented youngsters making the headlines in 2019.

The Croatian is playing arguably her best tennis on the hard courts in her career and she did reach a peak Ranking last month, although the Donna Vekic fans will be disappointed that their player has not been able to crack the top 20 yet.

There has been a clear improvement in the level of performance produced by Vekic in each of the last four years. Her serve has been one that has produced a higher percentage of points on both the first and second serve in each of the past four seasons and Vekic has also improved the percentage of points won against the opponent's serve in each of those years too.

Donna Vekic is winning 46% of return points on the hard courts in 2019 and that is the kind of returning which should put plenty of pressure on Misaki Doi. The Japanese left hander has been pretty average on the hard courts in 2019 and was hammered by Vekic when these players met in Acapulco earlier this year.

A lot of the positives have come against players much lower down the Rankings, but Misaki Doi is only 2-6 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2019. The serve is not as effective in those matches, but the real slippage comes on the return of serve and I do think Donna Vekic is going to be someone that should be able to run through the majority of her service games without being under immense pressure.

It happened when they met in Acapulco where Vekic did not face a break point in her dominant win over Doi. On that day the Croatian also won 53% of return points played and I think she will have the edge in this one on both sides of the court which should give Donna Vekic a chance to win and cover in this First Round match.

I would be surprised if Vekic only loses three games again, but I think she will still do enough to cover the mark set by the layers.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: These two players both turn 20 years old in the next month and both have entered the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to some positive performances in 2019. Both Miomir Kecmanovic and Alexei Popyrin have played plenty of tennis on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour, but it is the Serbian who has perhaps been the more consistent.

I backed Kecmanovic a couple of times with success last week and I do believe he is rightly favoured in this First Round match. That isn't a disrespect to Popyrin who reached the Quarter Final in Atlanta last week along with Kecmanovic, but it is Kecmanovic who has been the more consistent player of the two.

Both have played a fair few matches off the main Tour, but there is enough data to take away from their performances in hard court matches at the highest level. The serve has been key for both Kecmanovic and Popyrin and I expect it is going to be an important part of their success or failure on Tuesday too.

Miomir Kecmanovic has held 85% of his service games played on the hard courts in main Tour events, while Alexei Popyrin is at 83%. The narrow edge also belongs to Kecmanovic as far as service points are concerned having won 67% of the points played behind his serve compared with 66% for Popyrin.

Where the match could be won and lost is the success the two players can have on the return of serve with break point chances expected to be few and far between in hot conditions in Washington. This is an area where Kecmanovic has had a significant edge over Popyrin having broken in 21% of return games on the surface compared with the Australian's number of 15%.

You can't always factor in how a player will perform on the break points, especially when there are not expected to be a host of them either way, but the slightly more productive return of Kecmanovic could be the key to the outcome of this match. It will likely be close and I would not be that surprised if three sets are needed, but I will back the slight favourite to cover in this one.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On the face of things it is quite stunning to see Grigor Dimitrov outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings, but it says a lot about how his last eighteen months have gone. Another upset last week saw Dimitrov beaten in the First Round in Atlanta, and he really has become a player that I will not back too often as he is over-rated by the layers.

In saying that I do think he could be potentially under-rated in this First Round match against Steve Johnson. The two players have met six times on the Tour and it is Grigor Dimitrov who has won four of those matches, which also includes winning their last three matches on the hard courts.

The last of those was in 2017 and things are much different for Dimitrov these days, although his numbers on the hard courts in 2019 suggests he should have had better than a 6-4 record that he holds. In 2018 the Bulgarian won 16 matches on the hard courts, but he won a fewer percentage of points played behind both serve and return than Dimitrov has in 2018. That suggests he is not playing the big points as well as he should be when seeing he is holding 81% of his service games compared with 83% last year, but he has been much more successful when it comes to breaking an opponent's serve.

The return game is going to be tested by American Steve Johnson who has surprisingly chosen to play in Los Cabos rather than Washington this week. Johnson is playing his first hard court match since the Miami Masters in March and he is just 4-7 on the surface this year, although Johnson has not been playing as poorly as that losing record would suggest.

The American has held 83% of his return games, but Johnson's struggles on the return of serve continues to blight him. Steve Johnson has won 33% of return points played and he has broken in just 15% of return games played compared with Grigor Dimitrov who is at 39% and 25% in those categories respectively.

It is that edge on the return which makes me favour Dimitrov in this match and in their past meetings on the hard courts we have seen the Bulgarian hold 89% of his service games compared with Johnson at 75%. That might not seem a huge difference, but it is significant enough to give Grigor Dimitrov the edge in this one.

He is a vulnerable favourite when you consider the inconsistent results Dimitrov has earned all season, but I think he can edge out Steve Johnson here. I will look for him to cover in very hot conditions in Los Cabos on Tuesday in this First Round match.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Injuries have been blighting Kyle Edmund's season and it was a factor in his defeat at Wimbledon to Fernando Verdasco when blowing a 2-0 lead in sets. He has had a few weeks to recover and get ready for the hard court season as Edmund looks to reverse his slip down the World Rankings and receiving a bye into the Second Round at Washington means he has had a few more days to get used to the hot conditions at this event.

Having a bye does mean that Edmund is facing an opponent who has the confidence of winning a First Round match and Lloyd Harris will be looking to take advantage of the British player if he is not at 100%.

Kyle Edmund has been able to play some strong hard court tennis in 2019, although his best result has been winning a Challenger event played at Indian Wells at the end of February. When he has played at the main Tour level Edmund has pretty consistent kind of results on the surface with a strong hold percentage but perhaps not being as strong on the return of serve as he would like.

However he should have the edge over Lloyd Harris who has not had as strong a year on the surface as he may have expected, especially as much of his time is still spent below the main Tour level. The South African came from a set behind to beat Ricardas Berankis in the First Round to improve to 2-4 in hard court matches on the ATP Tour, but Harris has only been holding in 63% of service games played and that number is not that much better at 78% overall in 2019.

Like Edmund, Harris is not the best returner on the surface and I do think the British player's superior serve can be the difference on the day. These two players met earlier in the season and it was Edmund who dominated the match despite needing three sets to beat Harris. The difference in serve proved to be the big factor on the day and I think the same may happen in Washington on Tuesday.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Karen Khachanov: At 34 years old you would have to guess that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's best days are now behind him, but he should be able to vastly improve his current World Ranking in the weeks and months ahead. There are very few points for Tsonga to defend from 2018 and he is playing well enough to at least make an impact at the next few events to push up the Rankings from his Number 70 spot.

He was a solid First Round winner on Monday and Tsonga is back in action on Tuesday as a slight underdog in a virtual pick 'em Second Round match against Karen Khachanov. These two players have met twice before, but not since 2017, and Tsonga will be looking for a third win over the young, improving Russian.

Karen Khachanov has seen his numbers drop significantly from the level produced on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2019. He is just 7-7 in matches on the surface, while Khachanov has seen his percentage of games held behind serve drop from 88% to 83%. The Russian has also seen the return of serve decline with breaks earned in 22% of return games in 2018 dropping to 17% in 2019.

Now he has to face an opponent in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been able to produce some big serving and who can expose some of the limitations Khachanov has had on the return of serve. The Frenchman is also a fairly limited returner, but he may have the edge on the serve which can be the difference when it comes to what looks like being a close match.

It can't be ignored that Tsonga is 0-3 on the hard courts against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2019, although he has only faced Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Novak Djokovic. Both of those players are significantly better returners than Khachanov though and I think Tsonga will enjoy this kind of match up a bit more with the aggression coming from the other side of the net meaning points are going to be relatively short.

This Second Round match going the distance would not be a surprise, but I think Tsonga may have the edge with the match under his belt in these conditions. In each of the last two seasons, Karen Khachanov has lost his first hard court match played between Wimbledon and the US Open and a strong serving day from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will give him a chance to add to that run here.

MY PICKS: Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 3.60 Units (8 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 30th)

I've had a lot going on in my life in the real world over the last month which has meant I have not really had the time to do the necessary research and also write up my thoughts for the Picks from the Tennis tournaments which have been in action since the close of Wimbledon.

Hopefully things will clear up in the days ahead as we move into August and I can find a bit more consistency with the analysis even if the Tennis Picks have continued to be posted.


Last week was a disappointing one and I decided to put an end to Tennis Picks a little before the end of the week as I was not getting a good read of the matches later in the week.

Some of the players reaching the business end of the tournaments underlined the basic weakness of the draws, but the move into August means a few more bigger names are out on the courts this week. The ATP event in Washington and the WTA event in San Jose are traditionally strong hard court events in the early preparation for the US Open ahead of the trips to Canada and Cincinnati both Tours will be taking before heading to Flushing Meadows at the end of the August.

We also have a WTA event in Washington and a couple of ATP events in Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel to be played this week so there should be a few chances to find the Tennis Picks to produce a winning week after the disappointment of last week.

My first Picks can be found in the 'MY PICKS' section below and the season totals have been updated too.


MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 25.90 Units (1229 Units Staked, + 2.11% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 30th)

The Rogers Cup/Coupe Rogers being played in Toronto and Montreal this week are up to the Semi Final matches and then the majority of the players will head off to the Olympic Games.

That tournament begins next Thursday, but we will have some Ranking events also being played next week as other players continue their build up to the US Open in the same way they would in non-Olympic years.


It has been a good week for the picks so far, but I said yesterday that it would depend on the final three days as to whether it is a really good week, or just one that is keeping the positive momentum going. This time last year I had a pretty horrific July, but this year has been filled with winning weeks which is important to turn around what has been a poor season up until now.

Picks from the Semi Final matches will be placed on this thread on Saturday afternoon as I won't be able to do as much research for all the picks until that time. Of course this thread is open for any picks I do have from the Semi Final matches to be played, although at this time the match ups have not been set so I am not sure that there will be any picks at all.


Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber over 21.5 games: The first Semi Final at the Coupe Rogers in Montreal will likely provide the favourite to win the tournament on Sunday. Both Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber have had to fight to get to this Round where they will repeat their Wimbledon Semi Final from earlier this month.

I have some doubts about what kind of fitness levels Kerber has going into the Semi Final even if she looked at her best on Friday in her Quarter Final win. Pulling out last week in Bastad with an elbow issue has perhaps come out this week in her poor serving performances for the most part and it is an area in which Halep will look to expose any vulnerabilities.

However I do think Kerber will also enjoy some success going after the Halep serve and matches between these players have been competitive and featured plenty of break points. Last year in Toronto it was Halep who came through a tight match and their Semi Final at Wimbledon was a close match for long periods too with Halep perhaps throwing away the tie-breaker.

I do believe this match will be a close one and it could easily need a deciding set to figure out who will be playing in the Final tomorrow. While this is plenty of games for the pair to combine and cover, going into a decider will likely mean going over the number as well as the fact their last match at Wimbledon would have been enough games in two sets.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Kristina Kucova: There won't have been a more surprising run to a Premier Event Semi Final than the one Kristina Kucova has produced this week. The wins she has put under her belt after coming through the Qualifiers includes beating both Washington and Stanford Champions from last week, but it has also seemingly come out of nowhere.

It was only last week that Kucova was losing to Sabine Lisicki fairly comfortably, but her variation and two handed shots from both wins have baffled players all week. It is the fight she has shown to come from behind in sets which has also been impressive and the win over Johanna Konta in the Quarter Final is as impressive as it looked.

Fatigue has to be a big factor for Kuchova having already played six matches in Montreal and fifteen sets in that time. She is also going to be dealing with tremendous power that comes from the Madison Keys racquet and I do wonder if the Slovakian's run is going to be overpowered by the American.

It is a lot of games being asked to cover because of how well Kucova has played and the fact that players have been bamboozled by her game. That could mean Keys takes a little time to get to grips with the Kucova skills on the court, but you have to think she can hit through some of slicing and dicing Kucova will do in this one and eventually wear down a player that to be feeling the pace of the week in a 64, 62 win.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: This looks a good Semi Final on paper between the Number 2 and Number 3 Seeds in Toronto, but I do favour Stan Wawrinka enough to want to back him to see off Kei Nishikori. Both players had solid Quarter Final wins, but I think Wawrinka looked in a stronger place physically and that can be very important in these big matches.

Physical tiredness can lead to mental tiredness and that will put pressure on Nishikori who has had some struggles on his serve to keep opponents at bay. There is no doubt that Wawrinka will have chances to break serve, but the concern will be that he hasn't really served brilliantly until his win over Kevin Anderson on Friday.

His serve will be attacked by Nishikori who will be looking to get plenty of balls back in play, but there were times when he looked out of sorts physically against Grigor Dimitrov on Friday. That has helped influence my decision to pick Stan Wawrinka to cover this number, while the Swiss player has won three out of four matches against Nishikori and covered this number in each of those wins.

I expect some stunning rallies to come out of this match, but the bigger points will likely be won by Stan Wawrinka which can see him come through 76, 64.


Gael Monfils + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: After missing some time on the Tour, including home Grand Slam the French Open, and losing in the First Round at Wimbledon, Gael Monfils has been making hay on the North American hard courts. Winning the title in Washington was a surprise, but his run to the Semi Final in Toronto has been a spectacular way of backing that up.

Monfils beat Milos Raonic in two tough sets on Friday and the biggest concern is whether all this tennis will eventually take its toll on the body. Playing the World Number 1 in the Semi Final having lost eleven straight times to him makes that challenge all the more difficult.

Novak Djokovic hasn't looked at his very best this week, but he is yet to drop a set and did beat Tomas Berdych in the Quarter Final which is still a tough assignment. However I am not sure the serve is working at its best and Monfils is capable of taking advantage of any issues Djokovic is having there, but the eye test does say the World Number 1 is not completely confident in that shot at the moment.

This is a decent number of games for Monfils to be given and he has covered it in three of the last four matches with Djokovic. He can steal a set which makes it more appealing and I will back the Frenchman to keep this one more competitive than the layers tend to think.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 19-14, + 4.30 Units (66 Units Staked, + 6.52% Yield)