Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 31st)

The Canadian Masters/Premier Event come to an end on Sunday with the Final in Montreal and Toronto played this evening.

Both look like decent Finals on paper and I think it will be a good end to the tournaments this week.

No matter how it goes today, it will be a winning week, but I would love to get a couple more winners to put on the board and make it a strong end which will put in a serious dent on the season totals.

The picks have been in good shape throughout July, but I do want to put another solid week into the books by taking another chunk out of the season totals before we head to the next set of tournaments and the Olympic Games which are played next week.


Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: This looks to be a Final in Montreal contested by the two players who have been in the best form so far this week and that should make it a cracker. As well as Madison Keys has played and as eye-catching as her game is, I think Simona Halep can get the better of her over the course of the match and wear down the American.

There is plenty of power and big shot making that can sway the thinking which comes out of the Keys racquet- when you watch the American in full flow, it is hard to ignore the potential she has to reach the top of the women's game. However there are still some serious inconsistencies there and a player of Halep's standing can expose those if Keys is not quite at the races.

The serve is a big weapon for Keys and that will give her a few cheap points, but Halep should be able to stay with her in the rallies and we saw at Wimbledon that she can turn things around against his opponent. That came on a surface that should have favoured Keys and she actually went into the match as the favourite, but Halep has had considerably more success on the hard courts over the last few seasons.

It will be a tough match with Keys being able to hit through Halep at times, but I think the latter will eventually be able to force enough mistakes out of her opponent. Even if she drops a set, I think Halep will win the match and likely do it while covering this number in a 57, 64, 63 win.


Kei Nishikori + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The World Number 1 described his Semi Final win over Gael Monfils as his best performance of the week in Toronto and Novak Djokovic might be rounding into form and building momentum going into the Olympic Games. A Gold Medal in the Singles would help Djokovic continue building a CV which could be the 'greatest of all time' by the time he finishes his career and this is his best remaining chance of winning that Gold Medal.

The World Ranking is clearly also important for Djokovic who was looking to bounce back from an upset loss at Wimbledon and adding 1000 points here will help in that regard especially as Andy Murray has skipped Toronto. While Djokovic is a clear favourite in this Final, I do think he will be tested by Kei Nishikori who has made the last two matches very competitive against this opponent.

Nishikori's game does not match up that well against Djokovic's as his serve doesn't offer too many cheap points and the latter is the better player when the rallies develop more often than not. That is shown up in the big moments in a match and it is hard to ignore how easily Djokovic has dismissed the Nishikori challenge when they do meet on the hard courts.

It will need a big serving display from Nishikori, bigger than usual, to give himself a chance, but I also think he might have more joy against the Djokovic serve. Despite the easy win on the scoreboard on Saturday, Gael Monfils created chances against the Djokovic serve and Nishikori will follow suit you would imagine while also having a little longer to get rested for the Final.

I am finding it tough to really believe in Nishikori simply because of the poor recent record against Djokovic on the hard courts. Djokovic has covered this number in five straight wins on the hard courts against Nishikori since his surprising Semi Final loss to him at the US Open, but this might be the most vulnerable Djokovic has looked in those matches. I am hoping Nishikori can take his chances against the Djokovic serve which should give him every chance of covering against Djokovic in this match.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-16, + 4 Units (74 Units Staked, + 5.41% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 30th)

The Rogers Cup/Coupe Rogers being played in Toronto and Montreal this week are up to the Semi Final matches and then the majority of the players will head off to the Olympic Games.

That tournament begins next Thursday, but we will have some Ranking events also being played next week as other players continue their build up to the US Open in the same way they would in non-Olympic years.


It has been a good week for the picks so far, but I said yesterday that it would depend on the final three days as to whether it is a really good week, or just one that is keeping the positive momentum going. This time last year I had a pretty horrific July, but this year has been filled with winning weeks which is important to turn around what has been a poor season up until now.

Picks from the Semi Final matches will be placed on this thread on Saturday afternoon as I won't be able to do as much research for all the picks until that time. Of course this thread is open for any picks I do have from the Semi Final matches to be played, although at this time the match ups have not been set so I am not sure that there will be any picks at all.


Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber over 21.5 games: The first Semi Final at the Coupe Rogers in Montreal will likely provide the favourite to win the tournament on Sunday. Both Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber have had to fight to get to this Round where they will repeat their Wimbledon Semi Final from earlier this month.

I have some doubts about what kind of fitness levels Kerber has going into the Semi Final even if she looked at her best on Friday in her Quarter Final win. Pulling out last week in Bastad with an elbow issue has perhaps come out this week in her poor serving performances for the most part and it is an area in which Halep will look to expose any vulnerabilities.

However I do think Kerber will also enjoy some success going after the Halep serve and matches between these players have been competitive and featured plenty of break points. Last year in Toronto it was Halep who came through a tight match and their Semi Final at Wimbledon was a close match for long periods too with Halep perhaps throwing away the tie-breaker.

I do believe this match will be a close one and it could easily need a deciding set to figure out who will be playing in the Final tomorrow. While this is plenty of games for the pair to combine and cover, going into a decider will likely mean going over the number as well as the fact their last match at Wimbledon would have been enough games in two sets.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Kristina Kucova: There won't have been a more surprising run to a Premier Event Semi Final than the one Kristina Kucova has produced this week. The wins she has put under her belt after coming through the Qualifiers includes beating both Washington and Stanford Champions from last week, but it has also seemingly come out of nowhere.

It was only last week that Kucova was losing to Sabine Lisicki fairly comfortably, but her variation and two handed shots from both wins have baffled players all week. It is the fight she has shown to come from behind in sets which has also been impressive and the win over Johanna Konta in the Quarter Final is as impressive as it looked.

Fatigue has to be a big factor for Kuchova having already played six matches in Montreal and fifteen sets in that time. She is also going to be dealing with tremendous power that comes from the Madison Keys racquet and I do wonder if the Slovakian's run is going to be overpowered by the American.

It is a lot of games being asked to cover because of how well Kucova has played and the fact that players have been bamboozled by her game. That could mean Keys takes a little time to get to grips with the Kucova skills on the court, but you have to think she can hit through some of slicing and dicing Kucova will do in this one and eventually wear down a player that to be feeling the pace of the week in a 64, 62 win.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: This looks a good Semi Final on paper between the Number 2 and Number 3 Seeds in Toronto, but I do favour Stan Wawrinka enough to want to back him to see off Kei Nishikori. Both players had solid Quarter Final wins, but I think Wawrinka looked in a stronger place physically and that can be very important in these big matches.

Physical tiredness can lead to mental tiredness and that will put pressure on Nishikori who has had some struggles on his serve to keep opponents at bay. There is no doubt that Wawrinka will have chances to break serve, but the concern will be that he hasn't really served brilliantly until his win over Kevin Anderson on Friday.

His serve will be attacked by Nishikori who will be looking to get plenty of balls back in play, but there were times when he looked out of sorts physically against Grigor Dimitrov on Friday. That has helped influence my decision to pick Stan Wawrinka to cover this number, while the Swiss player has won three out of four matches against Nishikori and covered this number in each of those wins.

I expect some stunning rallies to come out of this match, but the bigger points will likely be won by Stan Wawrinka which can see him come through 76, 64.


Gael Monfils + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: After missing some time on the Tour, including home Grand Slam the French Open, and losing in the First Round at Wimbledon, Gael Monfils has been making hay on the North American hard courts. Winning the title in Washington was a surprise, but his run to the Semi Final in Toronto has been a spectacular way of backing that up.

Monfils beat Milos Raonic in two tough sets on Friday and the biggest concern is whether all this tennis will eventually take its toll on the body. Playing the World Number 1 in the Semi Final having lost eleven straight times to him makes that challenge all the more difficult.

Novak Djokovic hasn't looked at his very best this week, but he is yet to drop a set and did beat Tomas Berdych in the Quarter Final which is still a tough assignment. However I am not sure the serve is working at its best and Monfils is capable of taking advantage of any issues Djokovic is having there, but the eye test does say the World Number 1 is not completely confident in that shot at the moment.

This is a decent number of games for Monfils to be given and he has covered it in three of the last four matches with Djokovic. He can steal a set which makes it more appealing and I will back the Frenchman to keep this one more competitive than the layers tend to think.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 19-14, + 4.30 Units (66 Units Staked, + 6.52% Yield)

Tennis Outright Picks August 8th-14th

The American hard court season gets fully underway today as the Masters Tournament in Canada begin and we will see the return of the top 4 players in the World.

The WTA Tour also goes to Canada for their Rogers Cup in Toronto and that once again brings together a strong field including Kim Clijsters (back from injury) and Petra Kvitova (first match since winning Wimbledon).

ATP Masters Montreal

The Masters tournament in Canada has been dominated by the top 4 players of the World over the last 8 years and I am not going to look too much further when making my picks this week.

The top half of the draw is dominated by the presence of Novak Djokovic- it is a testament to his performances that he has only lost 1 match all year, especially considering the strength of Men's tennis at this point of time and he is rightly the Number 1 seed and favourite to win the tournament.

His route through to the Semi Final would have looked extremely difficult 18 months ago as he is down to play Nikolay Davydenko first up, before matches against Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner/Gael Monfils.

However, Davydenko is not the player of old, while I still think Del Potro is still a little short of being able to challenge the top 4 as he recovers from his wrist injury.

Djokovic is a former winner of this event while it has taken place in Montreal and it is understandable that he is the favourite. BUT I am instead going to back birthday boy Roger Federer to come out of this section.

The World's top 3 players all seem to have a mental edge over one another and it seems Federer feels much more confident when facing Djokovic than when he plays Nadal.

The hard courts are a favourite of Federer, especially in North America, and his game is perfectly suited to dominate rallies on the surface.

I would expect Federer to get the better of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, even though both have won matches against the former World Number 1 this season. Tsonga was forced to play the match of his life to come back and beat Federer at Wimbledon, but his inconsistency means I could not expect him to do that again, while Richard Gasquet was a little fortunate to win his match with the Fed Express.

At odds three times bigger than Djokovic, I will back Federer to come through this section and perhaps prove to the World that he is still the man to beat at the US Open.

My one concern is that Canada has not normally been the venue where Federer has played his best, being a losing Finalist on 2 occasions and he has lost before the Semi Final in 2 of the last 3 events.

That leads me on to my pick from the bottom half of the draw where I am going to take Andy Murray as a player that has had a lot of success in Canada in the last couple of years.

In fact, Murray has won this event in consecutive years and will be bidding for his hat-trick this year. The British Number 1 has an awkward looking draw as he is down to meet big serving Kevin Anderson in Round 2 and then Stanislas Wawrinka in Round 3, the latter beating Murray at the US Open last year.

A potential Quarter Final with Mardy Fish will cause problems of its own, with the American Number 1 having a winning record over Murray including a 3-0 head to head from 2010 alone. Those matches were close, and Fish may not be at his best with a bruised heel and he too has a couple of big obstacles in his path including the Washington Champions, Radek Stepanek, and the LA Champion, Ernests Gulbis.

Rafael Nadal is also in this half of the draw and should have relatively serene progress through to the Quarter Final where he will meet Tomas Berdych- however, the Czech player has not been in great form this season and I would expect Nadal to come through.

Murray has a strong record against Nadal on the hard courts and I think he will be able to beat the Spanish player if they do meet in the Semi Final. Nadal has won this tournament twice before, but has not been beyond the Semi Final in his other 5 appearances at the event.

WTA Toronto

The Women's event looks very open and there are plenty of questions that need answering as we get closer and closer to the US Open that starts on August 29th.

I have question marks over all the leading contenders, but also have no doubts that one of those will come away with the trophy.

Serena Williams is rightly the favourite after her recent domination of a tough field in Stanford, but she has a couple of really tough matches to negotiate and the price looks a little short for me.

Petra Kvitova will be tough to beat if she can mentally prepare for this tournament after winning her first Grand Slam title at Wimbledon, and she would not be the first player that struggles with the new weight of expectation on her shoulders.

Others like Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka, Na Li and Caroline Wozniacki have their own issues to overcome and I think it might be prudent to keep a watching brief on this tournament as far as the outright winner is concerned.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 7.00 BetFred/Victor Chandler (1 Unit E/W)

Andy Murray @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)

E/W is a winner if the player reaches the Final and is paid at 0.5 the odds.


Update: Unibet do indeed only do 'win only' on their outright markets, so will take the shorter odds at Ladbrokes