Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 31st July)

The Canadian Masters has been stretched over the space of around twelve days like so many of the big Masters events and that has replaced the old format of the Tour when this event and the Cincinnati Masters would be played in a fortnight.

It also means that some of the players who were competing in the Finals of events at the last tournament have had little time to prepare for a Masters event that began on Sunday and that has cost Leylah Fernandez in her home tournament.

She did win the title prior to the Canadian Masters beginning, but I am sure she would have liked to have had a bigger impact here in Montreal and it may be something that the Tour have to fix in the years ahead.

We move onto the Third Round on Thursday, but finding selections has not been easy with just the sole pick made on the day.

The tournament totals will be added to this thread on Thursday morning once the final selection from Wednesday has been completed in the early hours of the day.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: After having to go through the Big Three in his younger days, it feels like a path towards a maiden Grand Slam title remains very difficult for Alexander Zverev with the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner dominating.

He did reach the Australian Open Final earlier this season and Alexander Zverev has reached the Quarter Final twice, the Semi Final and the Final in the last four appearances at the US Open.

However, the World Number 3 was beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon and admitted that he was feeling the pressures both on and off the court. In theory the life of a top professional athlete seems to be very fortunate, but Alexander Zverev spoke of the feeling of loneliness during the grind of a Tour and his early exit at Wimbledon really did hurt.

Alexander Zverev more than deserved his win in the Second Round, even if the scoreline was far more competitive than it felt it should be.

With the likes of Alcaraz, Sinner and Novak Djokovic all missing in Toronto, Alexander Zverev does have a chance to lay down a marker for the final Grand Slam of the season and also boost his own confidence.

Next up is a match against Matteo Arnaldi, the World Number 41 who is yet another Italian making an impact on the Tour.

Of course it is tough to reach the heights of Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti and Jasmine Paolini, but Matteo Arnaldi has cracked the top 30 in the World Rankings. That was twelve months ago and he does have some big points to defend having reached the Semi Final at the Canadian Masters in 2024, although Arnaldi has struggled for some consistency on the hard courts this season.

Last week in Washington, Matteo Arnaldi was beaten by Taylor Fritz and he has lost five of the nine hard court matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents in 2025. The serve can be a very effective weapon for Matteo Arnaldi and that was the case when he pushed Alexander Zverev in Acapulco, albeit in a losing effort.

He will have to serve more effectively than he did last week against Taylor Fritz if this is going to be a match he can win, but that might be beyond Matteo Arnaldi.

Alexander Zverev looked in decent shape in the Second Round win and he can build on that by finding the breaks of serve needed to cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 1.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 31st July)

The Olympic Games might be played over two weeks, but for the tennis players in Paris, the tournament is fast coming to a close.

We are already into the Quarter Final matches in the women's event and the men's Quarter Final matches will be set on Wednesday evening with the Gold Medals handed out this weekend. Many of the players on the Tour have already begun their hard court preparation with the US Open now less than a month away and there are two Masters events to get through before that too.

With that in mind, the Olympic Games tournament has to be fitted into the calendar every four years.

The players still playing for Medals will only be focused on what they can achieve over the next few days and both tournaments are heating up.

Plenty of attention is also being paid to the Doubles here with teams being paired that would not normally be seen for fans over the course of the season.

And winning a Doubles Gold Medal is still a huge achievement and one that players will remember for the rest of their lives so there is plenty to achieve in the coming days for all still in Paris.

Francisco Cerundolo + 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: Having a day of rest between the Second Round and Third Rounds at the Olympic Games is going to be a big deal for Francisco Cerundolo.

He won the title in Umag on Saturday and was already in action in Paris on Sunday with consecutive wins over Tomas Barrios Vera and Ugo Humbert. Beating one of the home hopes for a Medal will not have endeared Cerundolo to the Roland Garros crowd, especially as Argentina have been criticised for celebrations about French players at the end of the Copa America.

Fans can really get on top of players on these grounds, but Francisco Cerundolo has to believe he has gotten through the worst he will hear when beating a home hope in the previous Round.

Beating Casper Ruud on a clay court is a tougher challenge than seeing off Ugo Humbert and that is the bigger problem for Cerundolo in the Third Round. Over the last few years, only Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic have been able to beat Casper Ruud, although the Norwegian has not been at his absolute best over the last month.

He was disappointingly beaten by Thiago Monteiro in his opening match in Bastad, where Ruud was also playing Doubles alongside Rafael Nadal, while the wins over Taro Daniel and Andrea Vavassori at the Olympics have perhaps been tougher than expected.

Casper Ruud is a strong clay court player and his overall numbers have been much stronger than Francisco Cerundolo's.

The serve is a critical weapon that should give Ruud the edge, but the match up with Francisco Cerundolo has been one that has given the World Number 9 problems.

This is the sixth meeting on the Tour and it is Francisco Cerundolo who leads 3-2, while he has also won two of the three matches played on the clay courts. In their most recent on the clay in Rome in 2023, Casper Ruud was the much stronger player, but even then Francisco Cerundolo was able to drag him into a competitive match and this Third Round contest in Paris may end up being the same.

In terms of the pure numbers, there really has not been much between the players and it certainly makes the games being given to the underdog appealing from a handicap point of view.

Sebastian Baez + 4.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: A comfortable Second Round win over Daniel Evans helped produce a win earlier this week, but this time the decision is to oppose Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The Third Round match against Sebastian Baez is expected to be much tougher than beating the British player in the previous Round, especially with the confidence Baez will bring into any clay court match.

It has been a summer where Baez has reached the Semi Final in Hamburg and the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel, and he has beaten Thiago Monteiro before a tougher victory over Benjamin Hassan. The wins will have grown the confidence of the World Number 18, although Sebastian Baez is going to have to serve very well to stay competitive in this match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas came through a difficult First Round match before the comfortable victory over Daniel Evans, but it has not been the year expected despite some successes. He will be the first to admit that more needs to be done if he is going to challenge the elite on the ATP Tour, although Tsitsipas has also been dealing with a couple of injuries that have just restricted his capabilities.

Playing on the clay gives him every chance of winning a Medal this week, although the potential Quarter Final against Novak Djokovic looks an extreme test.

Overlooking Sebastian Baez and thinking ahead to any potential meeting with Djokovic would be a mistake though and the Argentinian player is capable of pushing Stefanos Tsitsipas even in a losing effort.

The two previous matches between these players on the Tour have both been very competitive, although Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to come through on the hard courts in Melbourne and the clay courts in Madrid. The last of those matches was played over twelve months ago, but Tsitsipas will be relatively confident in the match up and that may see him come through one or two critical moments during this match.

Those are the moments that could prove telling in the direction this match eventually is played out, but Sebastian Baez can stay within this bigger than expected line set for the Third Round contest.

MY PICKS: Francisco Cerundolo + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 6-4, + 1.90 Units (20 Units Staked, + 8.64% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (July 31st)

The Tokyo Olympics are down to the Medal matches for those taking part in the Tennis event and the majority of the players involved have likely began their move across to North America where the build up to the US Open has begun.

Most won't likely take part in events listed to begin over the next few days, but Rafael Nadal is back as he travels to Washington for the first time.

Those are the 'weakest' events left before the run to the US Open with back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati played back to back in the middle of August. We should begin to get some insight into how the US Open may shake out, but for now the focus is on the Olympics and handing out the Medals across the next two days.

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: The Bronze Medal match in the Women's Tennis Olympic tournament will be played before the Gold Medal match and it is a strange situation for the players competing. Every other tournament they would have played would have been over as soon as the Semi Final match points went against them, but Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina have to return to the court two days after those defeats to play this Bronze Medal match.

The mindset can be quite difficult to determine when you think of the normality of the situation for the players off a defeat. Elena Rybakina has to be feeling the Semi Final loss a little more than Elina Svitolina because the Kazakhstan player may believe that one or two points cost her the match in a very close encounter. The Elina Svitolina defeat was much more straight-forward and I do wonder if the early exploits in the tournament have caught up with a player who may not have spent as much time on the court as she would have liked in the lead up to the Olympic Games.

Elina Svitolina has only recently married Gael Monfils and that may have taken her focus from the tennis so the run in Tokyo is something of a surprise. Even more so when you think of the inconsistent performances Svitolina has produced over the last twelve months and she has not really played at a very high level in the tournament, but has managed to get through to the Bronze Medal match by playing the big points better than her opponents have been able to do.

I do think she is going to have to improve dramatically from the Semi Final level if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina who had breezed through her first four matches before losing a break advantage in the final set of her Semi Final defeat to Belinda Bencic. The Rybakina serve has been a big weapon for her throughout this tournament and she has found a consistency on the return of serve which may just give the younger player an edge as she looks to Medal.

Elina Svitolina's serve is much more erratic and I do think it is a vulnerable part of her game which has prevented her kicking on and winning a Grand Slam. While she has won four matches here, the Ukrainian has not really been dominant on the return of serve either and I do think Elena Rybakina will get the better of her as long as the almost three hour Semi Final has not taken too much from her mentally and emotionally.

Before that match, Elena Rybakina has not really spent a lot of time on the court compared with Elina Svitolina who had multiple matches being played that lasted more than two hours on the court. She looked a little drained in the Semi Final defeat to Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina beat Elina Svitolina last month on a grass court when her serve was the key difference.

The hard court numbers produced by both players have been very similar over the last twelve months, but Elena Rybakina has been performing at a much better level in this tournament and I think she can conclude it with a Bronze Medal.

Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Over the last three years it has become clear that there isn't a dominant player on the WTA Tour and that has meant the big tournaments have been much more open for all who take part. It has led to a number of first time Grand Slam Champions and the Olympic Games five years ago saw Monica Puig win a Gold Medal.

Naomi Osaka was the favourite to win the Gold Medal this time around along with World Number 1 Ashleigh Barty, but both exited the tournament relatively early. Even then, you would be hard pressed to find too many people who would have tipped up Marketa Vondrousova versus Belinda Bencic in the Gold Medal match and this is easily going to be the biggest tournament won by either of these players.

It does mean there will be a new kind of pressure to deal with, but Marketa Vondrousova may be slightly better placed to deal with that. The Czech youngster reached the French Open Final in 2019 and so will know what it takes to perform in an environment like this one which may be a slight edge over Belinda Bencic who has not been beyond the Fourth Round at three of the four Grand Slams played and her best effort being one Semi Final run at the US Open a little under two years ago.

There is little doubt that Marketa Vondrousova has played the stronger tennis to this point of the tournament too after a difficult opening match. She has taken full advantage of using a Protected Ranking to enter the draw when her current World Ranking would not have been good enough to represent a loaded Czech Republic team, and Marketa Vondrousova's numbers have seen her consistently out-perform Belinda Bencic.

The Swiss player came through an incredibly tough Semi Final against Elena Rybakina, but Belinda Bencic was a little fortunate on the day having produced fewer break points than her opponent. It was a really long match too and you do have to wonder if that has sapped some of the energy she is going to need to challenge Marketa Vondrousova who has won their sole previous match, also on a hard court.

It was a victory in a tough three setter, but Marketa Vondrousova earned three times as many break points as Belinda Bencic and she has won more than 50% of return points in each of her last four matches. That is incredibly dangerous for Belinda Bencic who gave up 16 break points in her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina and who has been struggling to earn easy service games in her last three matches.

Belinda Bencic is capable in her return game, but it has been a relative weakness in her performances on the hard courts in recent seasons. I think that will be the case in this Gold Medal match and I think Marketa Vondrousova will have enough to come through with the victory and the cover of this handicap mark.

Pablo Carreno Busta + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: In normal circumstances, Novak Djokovic will be a player who doesn't spend a lot of time playing Doubles Tennis alongside his Singles commitments and certainly not at a major event. However, a proud Serb wanted to represent his nation to the fullest of his abilities at the Olympic Games and that has meant Novak Djokovic took part in the Mixed Doubles as well as the Singles tournament in Tokyo.

Some of that may have caught up with him as he was beaten in three sets in the Semi Final of the Singles tournament and later followed up with a straight sets defeat in the Mixed Doubles.

The dream of a Golden Slam have thus ended in the defeat to Alexander Zverev and now Novak Djokovic will instead be contesting the Bronze Medal match for the third time. He won that Medal in 2008 and was then beaten to finish without a Medal in London in 2012, while Novak Djokovic will also be dealing with the disappointment of losing his opportunity to win a Gold Medal.

It may not be his last chance to do that, but in three years time you would expect Novak Djokovic to not be as strong as he is right now. With the best opportunity now behind him, I do wonder what kind of motivation Novak Djokovic can have in this Bronze Medal match after looking completely exhausted by the end of his match with Alexander Zverev.

That has to be encouraging for Pablo Carreno Busta after the Spaniard was convincingly beaten in the first Semi Final against Karen Khachanov despite going into the match as the favourite. Winning a Medal would be a major achievement for Carreno Busta so I expect him to come out with a little more energy than Novak Djokovic, while Pablo Carreno Busta has to think about trying to extend the rallies and see whether a tired World Number 1 can really find the extra energy needed to win a Medal that he would not have been targeting before the tournament began.

Novak Djokovic is clearly the better hard court player and he has had the better tournament all around compared with Pablo Carreno Busta. The latter may need something like a repeat of their famous match at the US Open last year when Novak Djokovic was Defaulted after knocking a ball to the back of the court which hit a Line Judge.

However, I do think Novak Djokovic may be more focused on the other Bronze Medal match he is competing in on Saturday. Winning in the Mixed Doubles as a part of a team will be more appealing to a player that has a Singles Bronze Medal at home already and that should give Pablo Carreno Busta a chance for the upset.

Overall it certainly makes it feel like the underdog can keep this close with the amount of games being given to him. Novak Djokovic may still dig in and show his class in the victory, but I can see him coasting at times to preserve some energy and it may give Pablo Carreno Busta an opportunity to at least keep things close on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 23-17, + 2.96 Units (82 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2020- Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman (August 1st)

Who would have thought that the Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury Rematch was going to be the last really big Boxing event for months?

That fight might only have occurred five months ago, but with all the goings on in the world it does feel like it has been a lot, lot longer than that.

Things have yet to return to normal, but the UFC have shown you can put on fascinating cards even though those have to be behind closed doors- their business model is a lot different to Boxing which means those big fights are easier to arrange, but Dana White has shown you can put the right protocols in place to have combat sports return even in the current environment.

Eddie Hearn was always going to try and do something a bit special and organising four weeks of Fight Camps in his back garden is definitely a bit different. The first of those four weeks begins on August 1st and, unlike some other promoters, Hearn is making sure they are four good looking cards.

The final one looks the best with the likes of Dillian Whyte, Alexander Povetkin, Katie Taylor and Delfine Persoon all on that one, but the opening weekend is giving the fans some good looking fights albeit at a lower level than those World level fights arriving later in the month.

We also have a couple other cards taking place this week which means the Boxing begins on Friday and goes through to the early hours of Sunday morning in the United Kingdom.

While it is going to take a while for things to get back to the normality of seeing fans in the stands and watching the big names face each other, it is good to have Boxing back and there are plenty of big fights to look forward to.


The early suspension of sporting events came at a time when the 2020 Boxing season has not really gotten underway and so there have been very few picks made so far this year. Things should be different over the next month with the cards that are in place, but the situation could change quickly and all it takes is a couple of failed tests and these cards could all have a different feel.

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy that are involved in all of these events being put together for our entertainment.

Lyndon Arthur vs Dec Spelman

If it wasn't for the Covid crisis that took over the world, Lyndon Arthur would have been set to fight Anthony Yarde as he looks to prove himself the best in Britain at Light Heavyweight level.

Make no mistake, it was a huge step up for Arthur who is unbeaten in sixteen fights but who would then be going in with a former World Title challenger. Anthony Yarde was not far away from Knocking Out Sergey Kovalev, but for now Arthur has to focus on other targets before trying to renew hostilities with the 'Lion in the Camp'.

That fight may be put together before the end of the year and confidence has not been dampened in the meantime. Lyndon Arthur has made it clear that he expects to be considered better than both Yarde and Joshua Buatsi by the end of 2020, two high profile Light Heavyweights that are close to World level already.

It will be sounding like a very hollow statement if Arthur is not able to beat Dec Spelman in this main event fight from the BT Studios in Stratford on Friday evening.

Dec Spelman has a 16-3 record and two of those losses have come against English Light Heavyweight Champion Shakan Pitters. The other defeat came to Scott Westgarth who tragically later passed away and it is that event which inspires Spelman to try and be the very best he can be.

I have no doubt that Spelman will come forward and try and close the gap to the bigger man, but I also have to be wary of the fact that the Boxer has been Knocked Down a couple of times. Now he is facing a pretty big hitter in Lyndon Arthur who has stopped twelve of his sixteen beaten opponents and even managed to put down tough Emmanuel Anim when winning the Commonwealth Light Heavyweight Title.

He won't need to go looking for Spelman in this Title fight and I think that will play into Lyndon Arthur's hands, which look to be heavier than his opponent's. Over Twelve Rounds I would expect Arthur to begin to punish Dec Spelman and it may result in either the referee or the corner looking to pull out their man.

The Mancunian has suggested that he could finish this early, but I do give Dec Spelman's toughness some credit and will just look for Arthur to find a finish at some point over the thirty-six minutes they are in the ring with each other.

Jordan Gill vs Reece Bellotti

Both fighters are under 30 years old, but this is very much a crossroads night for both Jordan Gill and Reece Bellotti who both looked destined for big things before running into upset losses.

Twenty-three straight wins for Jordan Gill had him headlining events, but he was stunned in being stopped by Enrique Tinoco and in the last fifteen months he has had just six more Rounds since then.

Also, Jordan Gill has dealt with some health issues which even put his Boxing career in jeopardy and you do have to put this together and begin to wonder how much he has left to give. There is no doubting the skill levels of Gill and he is the superior Boxer in this fight, but you do have to wonder how much his body can take if Reece Bellotti can fire up some of the big punches he is known for.

A misdiagnosis hindered Jordan Gill's ability to move past his Thyroid Disease, but he has made it clear that he is better now and ready to refocus on his Boxing career which stalled in that loss last year.

Jordan Gill will be looking to contain the press that Reece Bellotti is going to try and put on him and he should be able to get the better of the pure Boxing exchanges. However, Bellotti has been known to work hard and hit harder even though he has been beaten in three of his last five fights.

They have a common opponent in Ryan Doyle who stopped Reece Bellotti in an upset before being stopped by Jordan Gill in his next fight. I don't think that is going to be something that bothers Bellotti who has also suffered a couple of Split Decision defeats since then and the loss to Doyle can be put down to a lack of focus on the part of the Watford man.

Reece Bellotti knows it is looking like a 'win or bust' night for him on Saturday and I think that inspires him to close the gap whenever he can and unload on Jordan Gill. A counter could be his downfall, but Bellotti will want to test out the Gill body and see whether he is capable of standing up to his level of puncher having stopped twelve of the fourteen fighters he has beaten in the pro ranks.

On the cards I think it will be very difficult for Bellotti to win this fight, but I do think he is good enough to force the fight and make Jordan Gill work at a pace he may not like. That pressure and aggression could see Bellotti sneak a couple of early Rounds and I think he will be the fighter who comes on strong the longer this goes on.

It is a Ten Rounder which lessens the enthusiasm to back Reece Bellotti, but I do think this is a closer fight than the oddsmakers do. If Jordan Gill is still having a few health issues and is perhaps a little soft in the body, Reece Bellotti hits hard enough to ask a lot of questions and I think he is worth a small interest to earn the big upset.

The reality is that Jordan Gill prior to the loss to Tinoco would have been a similar price to the one we are seeing for this one in my opinion- only now we know Gill might not be the most confident in being able to absorb punishment in the body and he has largely been inactive over the last fifteen months.

Reece Bellotti has not exactly been fighting every week, but he has had fourteen Rounds in the bank since Jordan Gill's defeat in May 2019 and that is eight more Rounds than his opponent. As long as Reece Bellotti isn't reckless, I think he can make this very competitive and force the pace against a superior Boxer, one that Jordan Gill may not enjoy.

Dalton Smith vs Nathan Bennett

A strong amateur career was not signed off with an appearance at the 2020 Olympics and with the way things have gone in the world it might have been the best decision Dalton Smith has made.

He enters his sixth professional fight this weekend and is a big favourite to see off 9-1 Nathan Bennett, although the latter is speaking confidently about taking an opportunity to change his life.

An upset win for Bennett will do that as he will likely get plenty more work with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotion, but this will be the first time the Liverpudlian has taken on an opponent with a winning record. Only two stoppages in nine wins suggests Nathan Bennett doesn't really hit hard enough to earn the respect of Sheffield's most successful amateur Boxer who has stopped his last four opponents since turning professional.

Dalton Smith has revealed he had a lot of hand injuries during his time in the amateurs, but he feels those are now behind him and he has yet to be taken beyond the Fourth Round. This is the next step on his progression as a Boxer as he moves into his first fight scheduled for more than Six Rounds, but I do think Smith can get on top early and have another relatively early night.

There are levels in Boxing and I expect Smith to clearly show he is levels above Nathan Bennett. I expect the latter to give it a go, but I think he will quickly learn that his opponent has the heavier hands and I do think Dalton Smith gets this over with in the first half of the scheduled Eight Rounds.

Fabio Wardley vs Simon Vallily

With very little experience, Fabio Wardley decided to move into the professional Heavyweight ranks of Boxing and so far it is so good for Dillian Whyte's protege. We are going to learn a lot more about Wardley on Saturday evening as he gets set to take on Simon Vallily who looks to be the toughest opponent of his relatively young career so far.

Size is very much on the side of Fabio Wardley, but he has also displayed plenty of athleticism in his career so far. However, Simon Vallily will be the first to tell you that Wardley has not fought anyone of note yet and he wants to bring the fight to the 25 year old and see exactly what he is made of.

Simon Vallily moved up to Heavyweight having lost the last fight at Cruiserweight to Craig Glover. Since then he has four fights at this weight, won three by stoppage and also beat common opponent with Wardley in Phil Williams. Simon Vallily needed the cards to earn the win over Williams but Fabio Wardley stopped him in Three Rounds, although that rarely means a lot in Boxing.

What it should underline is that Wardley is the bigger puncher in this contest and a lot is going to depend on how much Vallily can take from him. All of the indications from the underdog is that he is looking to test Fabio Wardley and will go looking for him and I am not sure that is the right approach at a weight where Wardley is the more natural.

In his two stoppages at Cruiserweight, Simon Vallily was knocked down early in both although one of those defeats came against the quality of Mairis Breidis. You do have to question how much he can take from someone like Fabio Wardley who clearly does hit very hard and I think this could be a rough, early night for the veteran fighter.

I expect Simon Vallily to show heart and guts, but Wardley will be expected to have too much for him. He sets up his shots well and I think once he has Vallily hurt he will get the job done, although Fabio Wardley still has plenty of learning to do before he is ready to take the next steps in his career.

The anger displayed from Simon Vallily in the last presser may work into Fabio Wardley's hands who may not have to look too far to find his target in this bout.

James Tennyson vs Gavin Gwynne

There are some good looking fights on the opening card that Matchroom have put together in Eddie Hearn's back garden and this looks like being another.

James Tennyson has very little give in him and he takes on a tough Welshman in Gavin Gwynne who has a single loss on his record against Joe Cordina last year.

His Northern Irish opponent has been beaten three times and all by stoppage, but Tennyson has looked stronger at Lightweight and has four wins behind him and all before the scheduled Rounds were completed. Three of the four fighters faced since his loss to Tevin Farmer have had winning records when they have entered the ring and the stoppage of Craig Evans in November 2019 was a very strong win for James Tennyson.

Neither has been in the ring in 2020 which means there are some doubts as to how they are feeling as they deal with ring rustiness, but I can't see anything but a physical, tough fight where the two Boxers will be trading some heavy leather for as long as it lasts.

Gavin Gwynne doesn't have the strongest of resumes, and he came up short when fighting for the British Lightweight Title last year. However there is no doubting that he won't take a backward step in this one and Gwynne may be the naturally bigger man having had some fights at the Light Welterweight Division since turning professional.

The experience edge may be with James Tennyson who has had more fights and fought for a World Title, but being the bigger man has to be a factor for Gavin Gwynne. He may try and outbox Tennyson using his length, but much is going to depend on how he handles the power that the Northern Irishman has clearly brought up to the Lightweight Division.

It really does feel like both men may end up meeting in the middle of the ring and letting their hands go and Gavin Gwynne will be well aware that as hard as James Tennyson hits, he has been stopped in all three of his previous defeats. Those have come at the hands of smaller men than Gwynne, although two stoppages in twelve wins for the underdog is not exactly screaming out 'Knock Out' in this one.

He is a tough fighter though and I think this is going to be a bout in which James Tennyson is going to have to wear down Gavin Gwynne. The latter may try and use his size to keep clear of the heavy artillery that is going to be thrown his way, but I think eventually we will see Tennyson catch up to him and that should lead to a stoppage win for the favourite.

Stopping Gavin Gwynne will really lay down a marker for the future for James Tennyson and I think the fighter from Belfast will eventually be able to do that.

Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman

It doesn't feel that long ago that Ted Cheeseman was headlining events and looking like a Boxer that was going to be pushed along for World honours.

Things have not really gone as expected for Cheeseman since 2019 and he has not won any of his last three fights, losing two and earning a draw in the other. Out of the ring issues have not helped Ted Cheeseman either, but the 24 year old will be frustrated that the last Decision went against him when facing Scott Fitzgerald.

Some will think it is harsh to suggest it is a crossroads fight for both Boxers, but you have to believe that is the case. Ted Cheeseman can't afford to drop another defeat to a British level opponent, while in the other corner Sam Eggington has already been fortunate enough to remain on track for a World Title bid despite having six defeats already.

Every time it has felt like Sam Eggington has hit a wall in his career he has bounced back with some big performances and I do think the fan friendly style is giving him more opportunities than others may have not been afforded.

This should be another one, although you can see a situation where Ted Cheeseman looks to showcase his superior Boxing skills and pick off the rushing Sam Eggington. That was the tactic employed in the close defeat to Scott Fitzgerald, although Cheeseman is looking to impose himself and bully his opponent a little more in this one.

For the early Rounds I do think Cheeseman will look to frustrate Eggington before he begins to break down what have been vulnerable defences showed by the latter. Ted Cheeseman is indicating he is in a much better space mentally now and I do think he will want to avoid another Decision he doesn't agree with having felt he did enough to beat Fitzgerald and Kieron Conway.

I have no doubt that the Sam Eggington tactic will be to get forward and try and land as much as possible to allow his power to make the difference. Ultimately he has been found out when he has stepped up and I do think Ted Cheeseman has better all around skills which will allow him to dictate the direction in which this fight goes.

A points Decision would not surprise me in favour of Ted Cheeseman, but I do think he will push for the stoppage once he gets through the early storm. Sitting down on a few shots against Sam Eggington who likes to defend using his head rather than his hands could prove to be telling by the latter Rounds and I do think Cheeseman will look to settle the fight without the need for the judges.

The last two defeats suffered by Sam Eggington have come in stoppages and I do think Ted Cheeseman might have enough volume to secure another one late on in this bout.

MY PICKS: Lyndon Arthur to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Reece Bellotti @ 4.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Fabio Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
James Tennyson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 31st)

With some of the tournaments being played in North America and Mexico this week, it does mean that the layers are perhaps taking some time to formulate their markets. This week in particular is an issue because the tournaments are trying to be completed before the Canadian Masters begins this weekend and that means players are being asked to play on consecutive days from very early in the week.

Matches are being played through the night and the winners are going to be playing in the next Round on Wednesday. I will add any Tennis Picks from those matches to this thread and I will also update the weekly totals at that time too.


Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: On Monday both Roberto Carballas Baena and Lorenzo Sonego had to come through difficult First Round matches and their progression came after needing three sets to see off opponents. Tough wins can build character though and there is a chance to build some momentum as they play each other for a place in the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel on Wednesday.

Winning matches is clearly important, but both players will know they could have easily been beaten in the First Round too. It does mean there needs to be an improvement if Carballas Baena or Sonego are going to make it through to the next Round and this match could easily come down to which of the players is able to find that improvement the best.

Out of the two players Carballas Baena has been the more consistent, although the Spaniard has a serve that his opponent's will all feel like they can get into. He is holding 76% of the service games he has played on the clay courts in 2019 and he wins 61% of the points played with both numbers being pretty steady over the last five seasons.

The Spaniard will be expecting to have a little more success when facing Lorenzo Sonego who has struggled with his return on the clay courts having won 36% of return points and breaking in less than 20% of return games played. It does put some pressure on Sonego to make sure he is finding the big first serve with some regularity, but for the most part he has been successful doing that having held 83% of service games played.

It was the serve that got him out of trouble in the First Round against Federico Delbonis with all eight break points saved in the final set decider. However Lorenzo Sonego had a pretty good record against Delbonis which may have helped him from a mental standpoint, but that is not the case against Carballas Baena with three defeats to this opponent.

One of those came earlier this year on the South American Golden Swing, and all have been on the clay courts. Roberto Carballas Baena has found a way to break in 36% of return games played against Lorenzo Sonego and restricted the Italian to 58% of service points won which is someway down on his numbers overall.

I do think Sonego may have more success on his return than he does generally considering Carballas Baena remains at a steady 76% of service games held against the Italian. However Carballas Baena wins a few more service points and I think he will position himself to get the better of Lorenzo Sonego for a fourth time that they have met.

Prior to the win over Delbonis, Lorenzo Sonego had lost six matches in a row on the main ATP Tour on the clay. He will be boosted by snapping that run, but this looks a tough match up for him and I think Roberto Carballas Baena can be backed to win and cover the number.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Dennis Novak: As one of the higher Ranked players at the ATP Kitzbuhel tournament, Pablo Cuevas was given a bye into the Second Round of the draw. This could be an important week for Cuevas as it is the last clay court event with significant World Ranking points attached to it in the 2019 season, although it comes at the end of what has been a poor month for the Uruguayan.

He would have been hoping for much better from appearances in Bastad and Hamburg, but Pablo Cuevas did not receive favourable draws in defeats to Federico Delbonis and Dominic Thiem at those tournaments. This Second Round match looks much more winnable, although Cuevas has only played in Kitzbuhel once before and was upset by a home player in 2017.

Now he has to face Dennis Novak who came through his First Round match very comfortably although he has yet to move beyond the Second Round here. The majority of Novak's time is spent away from the main ATP Tour and the 25 year old Austrian has to be wondering whether he can find the consistency to crack into the top 100 of the World Rankings which would open the door to main Tour events in the future.

Dennis Novak has to be feeling good about the way he has performed when playing on the main Tour in 2019 even though he is only 3-3 on the clay in those matches. He has been holding 83% of the service games he has played in those matches and Novak is also breaking in 21% of return games, but I have to note that in his career Novak only holds in 73% of service games played on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.

He may have a bit more joy against Pablo Cuevas who can be a little erratic when it comes to his return of serve, although the Uruguayan has some strong numbers to fall back upon. He has broken in 30% of return games played on the clay in 2019 and Cuevas has been particularly strong when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 100 as shown by his percentage improving to 38% in that category.

Pablo Cuevas also does possess a strong serve and he does hold 81% of service games played on this surface against players Ranked outside the top 100. It can be difficult for players when they go up against an unfamiliar opponent for the first time, especially one that won't have a lot of film on him like Dennis Novak, but I expect to see Cuevas having a bit too much for him.

It may even need three sets to get it done, but I would expect Cuevas to find the big return games to earn the edge in the match and he can use that return to cover this number.


Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner over 10.5 games first set: A strong First Round win produced by Hubert Hurkacz over Donald Young has set him up with this match against John Isner. The American was one of a number of Seeds who received a bye through to the Second Round in Washington, although a big six weeks are coming up for Isner if he wants to avoid another drop down the World Rankings.

Last year John Isner reached the Quarter Final at the US Open so there are plenty of points he is going to have to defend there. He can make up for it having lost early in both Canada and Cincinnati, but Isner needs some momentum in what has been a difficult year for him.

The serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Isner and we have seen 40 year old Ivo Karlovic continue to be an effective player on the Tour thanks to the serve he possesses. The same is likely going to be the case for Isner who is winning 76% of the points played behind his serve and holding 94% of his service games on the hard courts in 2019.

Suffice to say it will be a huge challenge for Hubert Hurkacz to get his teeth into the return games especially as the Polish player is only winning 35% of return points on the hard courts this year. He has struggled to find the breaks of serve in general and now faces one of the top servers on the Tour.

It does mean there is some pressure on Hurkacz knowing one slip on serve would likely prove to be fatal, but he will be confident he can keep the scoreboard ticking along. Hubert Hurkacz has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts in 2019 and John Isner is an even more limited returner with breaks of serve in just 10% of return games while he wins less than 30% of the points played on an opponent's serve.

You would think the serve is going to be strong for both players at the outset of this match and five of the last seven John Isner matches have needed a tie-breaker to determine the first set. It has not been as common in Hubert Hurkacz matches, but he is likely going to need to serve well to stay with the American and backing the first set to at least reach 5-5 is the play in this one.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Over the last two years Kevin Anderson has played some of his very best tennis on the US hard court swing which concludes with the final Grand Slam of the season. He will be looking for another strong run over the coming weeks and the opening match in Washington looks like being a good one for the big South African.

Kevin Anderson is the Number 4 Seed in Washington and that does mean he received a bye through to the Second Round. That could give Adrian Mannarino some encouragement having put a straight sets win on the board in the First Round, but the Frenchman has to get over the mental obstacle of a really poor head to head with Anderson.

It is Anderson who has won their last four matches head to head on the hard courts including a First Round win at the Australian Open. The South African has held 90% of the service games he has played against Mannarino in those four matches and that is vastly superior to the latter who has only managed to hold 67% of his own service games in that time.

In 2019 Kevin Anderson has held 87% of his service games played on the hard courts and he will feel he can keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure. The Frenchman has been struggling with his return on the hard courts through the season and that increases the pressure on a player who does not have the most effective serve with 76% of his service games being held.

That has contributed to the Mannarino only securing a 5-10 record and I do make Anderson a strong favourite. There are some concerns that covering such a number like this is difficult for a player who has a limited return like Anderson, but even the breaks in 18% of return games might not be such an issue when you think of the way he has matched up with Mannarino.

During the course of this match I think Kevin Anderson can find a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino and he should have enough to cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 31st)

As I said on Monday, the next couple of days were going to be those when I just added my Tennis Picks to the blog but without the usual analysis I write down.

With the tournaments split between Europe and Central and North America, I will update the weekly total and also add the Picks from the matches at Washington, San Jose and Los Cabos on Tuesday.


MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 31st)

Today was not supposed to be as busy as it has turned out and I realise that the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos, from where my tennis picks are focusing today, are shortly due to begin.

However I do have three picks from the First Round matches that have been scheduled across those two tournaments on Monday. Unfortunately it does mean a third straight day where I have to put up the picks without the breakdown, although I will ensure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday.


MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donald Young - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 31st)

The Canadian Masters/Premier Event come to an end on Sunday with the Final in Montreal and Toronto played this evening.

Both look like decent Finals on paper and I think it will be a good end to the tournaments this week.

No matter how it goes today, it will be a winning week, but I would love to get a couple more winners to put on the board and make it a strong end which will put in a serious dent on the season totals.

The picks have been in good shape throughout July, but I do want to put another solid week into the books by taking another chunk out of the season totals before we head to the next set of tournaments and the Olympic Games which are played next week.


Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: This looks to be a Final in Montreal contested by the two players who have been in the best form so far this week and that should make it a cracker. As well as Madison Keys has played and as eye-catching as her game is, I think Simona Halep can get the better of her over the course of the match and wear down the American.

There is plenty of power and big shot making that can sway the thinking which comes out of the Keys racquet- when you watch the American in full flow, it is hard to ignore the potential she has to reach the top of the women's game. However there are still some serious inconsistencies there and a player of Halep's standing can expose those if Keys is not quite at the races.

The serve is a big weapon for Keys and that will give her a few cheap points, but Halep should be able to stay with her in the rallies and we saw at Wimbledon that she can turn things around against his opponent. That came on a surface that should have favoured Keys and she actually went into the match as the favourite, but Halep has had considerably more success on the hard courts over the last few seasons.

It will be a tough match with Keys being able to hit through Halep at times, but I think the latter will eventually be able to force enough mistakes out of her opponent. Even if she drops a set, I think Halep will win the match and likely do it while covering this number in a 57, 64, 63 win.


Kei Nishikori + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The World Number 1 described his Semi Final win over Gael Monfils as his best performance of the week in Toronto and Novak Djokovic might be rounding into form and building momentum going into the Olympic Games. A Gold Medal in the Singles would help Djokovic continue building a CV which could be the 'greatest of all time' by the time he finishes his career and this is his best remaining chance of winning that Gold Medal.

The World Ranking is clearly also important for Djokovic who was looking to bounce back from an upset loss at Wimbledon and adding 1000 points here will help in that regard especially as Andy Murray has skipped Toronto. While Djokovic is a clear favourite in this Final, I do think he will be tested by Kei Nishikori who has made the last two matches very competitive against this opponent.

Nishikori's game does not match up that well against Djokovic's as his serve doesn't offer too many cheap points and the latter is the better player when the rallies develop more often than not. That is shown up in the big moments in a match and it is hard to ignore how easily Djokovic has dismissed the Nishikori challenge when they do meet on the hard courts.

It will need a big serving display from Nishikori, bigger than usual, to give himself a chance, but I also think he might have more joy against the Djokovic serve. Despite the easy win on the scoreboard on Saturday, Gael Monfils created chances against the Djokovic serve and Nishikori will follow suit you would imagine while also having a little longer to get rested for the Final.

I am finding it tough to really believe in Nishikori simply because of the poor recent record against Djokovic on the hard courts. Djokovic has covered this number in five straight wins on the hard courts against Nishikori since his surprising Semi Final loss to him at the US Open, but this might be the most vulnerable Djokovic has looked in those matches. I am hoping Nishikori can take his chances against the Djokovic serve which should give him every chance of covering against Djokovic in this match.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-16, + 4 Units (74 Units Staked, + 5.41% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 31st)

The Quarter Finals are next up on deck in the various tournaments that are being played this week as we have reached the business end of the events. Next week the next ATP 500 event is played in Washington and that will see the return of more big names, but first Rafael Nadal will want to end his week at the current ATP 500 event in Hamburg with a title to his name.

He hasn't been at his best so far this week with the serve being particularly vulnerable, but Nadal has battled through two tough matches to move into the Quarter Finals where he faces a tough challenge in the form of Pablo Cuevas.

They had a very closely contested match earlier this season and Cuevas is a solid clay court player, although you will see that I still think Nadal is capable of winning and moving into another clay court Semi Final.


Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: These two players have gone 1-1 in their two previous meetings against one another as professionals, but Dominic Thiem is a much improved player these days and I expect him to get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta.

The Spaniard is obviously very comfortable on clay courts and has won Challenger titles on the surface, but Dominic Thiem has won titles on this surface at the main Tour level. While Carreno Busta will likely be a solid player on the Tour, Thiem has the talent to be a regular in the top ten as he can play effectively on clay and hard courts.

Winning the title in Umag was another confidence boost for the youngster and he backed up that win with an impressive performance against Federico Delbonis. Thiem has a solid serve, but is very effective off both wings when playing with confidence and that could be a key for him to overcome Carreno Busta.

Carreno Busta has played well on the clay in lower level tournaments, but the surprise is that he hasn't been able to take that into the main Tour level as he has lost more matches than he has won despite winning two more this week. He beat Robin Haase in the Second Round, but the Dutchman missed his chances and I don't think Thiem is as generous as he wins 64, 64.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: I like to give credit to any player that is basically getting the best out of their own potential and Joao Sousa is definitely one of those. His game is solid, but Sousa doesn't have a lot of power and there isn't any one aspect of his game that really stands out.

Except one thing... He is mentally very strong to be able to go out on Tour and beat players that are arguably more talented and Sousa has to be given a lot of credit for that. Unfortunately I think he will always come up short against the very best players simply because they are less likely to mentally fall away in matches and David Goffin has been playing very well over the last twelve months.

The Belgian player is up to World Number 14 in the Rankings and he has had a couple of solid runs this season while showing his ability to play on any surface. I think the lack of power may prevent Goffin from winning multiple Grand Slams, but he may feast on some of the players below him during his career with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play and dominate longer rallies.

Goffin isn't just someone who plays defensively by using his movement to get balls back in play and wear players down. He has the quality to turn rallies into his favour and I think he can do that against Sousa despite how comfortable the latter is on the clay courts.

It could be a punishing match for both players, but I think Goffin will begin to wear Sousa down who had a much tougher Second Round match on Thursday. That may eventually lead to a 64, 64 win for Goffin and a place in the Semi Final.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Two Frenchmen meet in this Quarter Final and it is only the recent amount of tennis that Benoit Paire has played which is reducing my enthusiasm for him to see off Lucas Pouille. Paire has won the title in Bastad last week, but has also had to go three sets to win his two matches this week and I do wonder if that has sapped anything he had left in the tank.

If there is still something left for Paire, I would consider him a healthy favourite to win this match as Lucas Pouille has struggled on the clay on the main Tour before this week. Pouille has also suffered some losses to players far below those he has met so far this week and I think Paire can use his heavier game to wear him down and end the run.

As much tennis as Paire has had to play, Pouille has also come through the qualifiers as well as two matches in the main draw so his own physical well being has to be questioned.

Confidence can have a big impact on matches and you have to think Paire will have the edge in that department and can make that tell in the match. He looks to be getting back to something near his best over the last ten days and I don't think Paire will be ready for it to end here as he beats Pouille 75, 64 for me.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: The serving of Rafael Nadal has been below par all week as he has been forced to dig deep to win those games, but his return game hasn't been out of sync. That has enabled the former undisputed 'King of Clay' a chance to work his way into games and come through to the Quarter Final, but Nadal needs to raise his game again as he gets set to face Pablo Cuevas.

It has been a strong season for Cuevas who reached a career-high Ranking earlier this year and he has had a couple of solid wins this week to back up his Semi Final run in Bastad last week. He will be used to having big weeks at this time of the season as Cuevas won back to back titles last season in Bastad and Umag, although facing Nadal is always a difficult challenge.

You can tell confidence is short in Nadal's game simply with the way he has struggled to protect his serve, but I think he is playing well enough to take the title here. He just needs to tighten up his game a little bit and Nadal should prove too good for a player that hasn't been playing that well this week.

Cuevas has come through two matches with a bit more difficulty than he would have expected and I think Nadal can find a way to break his game down. I do think Nadal will need to serve better, but even a little bit better than Thursday should be enough for a 64, 63 win.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Go Soeda: Both players have had some impressive wins this week for different seasons- Gilles Muller has been a comfortable winner in both of his matches, while Go Soeda has upset two players in a row which will give him a lot of confidence.

It will help if Soeda can put his matches with Muller to the back of the mind as he has lost all four previous matches while winning just one set. In fact, three of the matches has seen Muller win by wide margins on the scoreboard including in Atlanta three years ago.

You can perhaps understand why that has happened too. Muller has a huge serve in terms of pace and placement and it will be tough for Soeda to get involved in a lot of those games which in turn puts pressure on him to keep up on the scoreboard. The Soeda serve is already one of the weaker ones on Tour and this additional pressure sees him crack, especially as Muller is someone who will look to attack the net and make his opponent pass him under pressure.

I imagine something similar happening in this Quarter Final as long as Muller can serve well. If he does that, I do expect Soeda to crack twice in a 63, 75 defeat.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.14 Units (38 Units Staked, + 18.79% Yield)