Tennis Picks 2023 (August 1st)

Monday was a busier day than usual for scheduled matches on the Tour, but nothing of interest came up for the Picks.

After a solid end to last week, I am looking for the momentum to continue on Tuesday where I have a single selection from Kitzbuhel.

Any Picks from Washington and Los Cabos will be added to this thread.

Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 games v Marc-Andrea Huesler: A really poor run of form on the clay courts will be difficult to shift for Marc-Andrea Huesler as he takes on an opponent who has put some strong results together on the surface.

Daniel Altmaier is at a career best World Ranking and he can move into the top 50 for the first time with a decent run here.

Two years ago he reached the Semi Final in Kitzbuhel, while the German reached the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week. Overall his numbers on the clay courts have been pretty good and he is facing an opponent who has lost his last seven matches on the red dirt, including First Round defeats in Gstaad and Umag in the last couple of weeks.

The challenge only increases for Huesler when noting he has lost both previous matches to Daniel Atmaier and both of those were on the clay courts- he was beaten in Geneva two years ago, but Altmaier also won their meeting in the First Round at the French Open without dropping a set.

On that day Daniel Altmaier had a significant edge on the serve and he should be able to get into the Marc-Andrea Huesler serve in this First Round match too. I would expect Altmaier to have the majority of Break Points in the match and he is playing well enough to believe he can get the better of the Swiss player who has been struggling on the clay as much as he has in 2023.

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Two players who have had injury issues to drop them well out of the top 100 of the World Rankings are hoping the US hard courts gives them an opportunity to get closer to the level they once showed.

This only makes this a bigger match for both Lloyd Harris and Kei Nishikori, who enjoyed strong tournaments in Atlanta last week.

Out of the two, Kei Nishikori is perhaps going to be offered a couple more Wild Cards into the biggest events compared with Lloyd Harris and so the harder path back towards the top of the ATP Tour will definitely need to be treaded by the South African. His results on the hard courts have been mixed, but the run in Atlanta will have helped his confidence, although he is facing a Kei Nishikori that has found a decent level on his return to the Tour.

Taylor Fritz ended his run last week and went on to win the title in Atlanta, but Kei Nishikori has won a title at Challenger level on his favourite surface and the former US Open Finalist will still feel more is to come.

Of course you can never really know how your body is going to react after such a long lay off from the Tour and playing weekly is tough, but Kei Nishikori does hold a win over Lloyd Harris on the hard courts of Washington and that will give him a boost.

He should have the edge on the return of serve too and Kei Nishikori can battle past this opponent.

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: You have to first note that Yoshihito Nishioka made the Final in Washington last year and so has to be afforded a lot of respect as potential being a 'horse for course' in an environment he would have enjoyed.

However, the opponent has been less positive for Nishioka who has lost all three pro matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and on all three surfaces on the Tour. The defeat on the hard courts was a premature one as Nishioka had to withdraw in the middle of the match, but the defeats on the clay and grass have been much more routine and this is a tough match up for him.

2023 has already proved to be a tough year on the hard courts for Yoshihito Nishioka who was beaten early in Atlanta last week and has been beaten in his last five matches played on the surface.

In saying that, Emil Ruusuvuori had lost a bit of confidence having lost five matches in a row before arriving in Washington, but he was a solid winner in the First Round, which should help. He has shown he is a solid hard court player and Ruusuvuori is expected to have an edge on the serve, as has been the case in the previous meetings between these players too.

When you have been struggling for confidence, nothing will come easy, but the win in the First Round is expected to provide a major boost for the player from Finland. There should be breaks of serve both ways, but I am expecting Emil Ruusuvuori to come out on top more often than not and get the better of Yoshihito Nishioka again.

MY PICKS: Daniel Altmaier - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 2nd)

Friday is an important day for me personally so this thread will be the last one of the week.

The next Tennis Picks will come from the Canadian Masters which begin this weekend, although my first selections will be made on Monday. I will update the season totals in that thread and that will include the results from this week as I won't be updating the results from Thursday in the Friday thread.

My selections are based from the matches that have already been set for Friday in the Quarter Finals so that means there won't be anything from ATP Washington or ATP Los Cabos where the Friday line up will be completed during the night in the United Kingdom.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Casper Ruud: It has been a very productive month for Albert Ramos-Vinolas between the conclusion of Wimbledon and the main tournaments in the US hard court swing beginning this weekend. The Spaniard entered three clay court events being played with the last two being on the main Tour and he has reached two Semi Finals and won a title in Gstaad last week.

He could have perhaps been feeling a little fatigued after playing as much tennis as he has and I think that was part of the reason Ramos-Vinolas struggled through his First Round win over Marton Fucsovics here in Kitzbuhel. After dropping the first set to the Hungarian, Albert Ramos-Vinolas has won six sets in a row in Austria and he has been playing some of his best tennis of 2019 over the last few weeks.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas has held 86% of his service games played on the clay courts since the start of July and he has also found his feet with the return of serve having broken in 33% of return games played. This week Ramos-Vinolas has won 64% of the service points played and he has won 41% of the return points as confidence continues to flow through the Spaniard as he looks for yet another chance to win a title this weekend.

This is not going to be an easy match against Casper Ruud who is very comfortable on the clay courts and whose best results have been on the surface. He has perhaps not been as consistent as Ramos-Vinolas when playing on the clay over the last month, but the Norwegian has been in fine form in Kitzbuhel which has to be respected.

Like Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Casper Ruud has only dropped one set which came in the First Round. His numbers have been considerably better than what he had been producing on the clay over the last three weeks, and that is both on the serve and return, but Ruud has to forget the fact that he has lost all three previous matches against Ramos-Vinolas and all of those have been on the clay courts.

Their match in Madrid in the Qualifiers was very close and Ramos-Vinolas was perhaps a little fortunate to win when you look at the way the first two sets. However he looks to be in confident mood at the moment and I think he can be backed to see off Casper Ruud in this match and he can cover the number in the victory too.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: You could have made a case for three of the Semi Finalists in Kitzbuhel, but I am not sure you could say the same for Lorenzo Sonego. The Italian had been on a losing run on the main Tour in clay court matches, but he has battled through a couple of Rounds where it would have taken one or two points to swing against him. A stronger win over Fernando Verdasco in the Quarter Final will be a boost for Sonego's confidence, but now he has to play a home favourite.

For someone who has the kind of clay results that Dominic Thiem has produced in recent years, it is something of a surprise that he has only ever reached one Final in Kitzbuhel and he is yet to win the title here. Prior to this tournament Thiem was only 8-7 in matches in Kitzbuhel, but he has looked to be in decent form in the first two matches he has won in the 2019 edition.

The Austrian is yet to drop a set, but he will feel he can get more out of his serve having held just 78% of the service games he has played in the tournament. It is something of a surprise when you think he has won 68% of the points played behind the serve, but Dominic Thiem has only saved 3 of the 7 break points he has faced and you would think his serve would be capable of protecting those big points a little better.

Lorenzo Sonego has been slightly better at holding serve with 79% of his games being protected so far in Kitzbuhel. However I have to point out he has won 63% of points behind serve so you would have to think he is going to be challenged by Dominic Thiem who has broken in 45% of return games played having won 47% of return points in the two matches he has won.

The return of serve looks to be a big difference between the players as Sonego has only broken in 20% of return games played. That number is only slightly better than his seasonal number on the clay courts and I do think the Italian will find it difficult to get into a lot of the Dominic Thiem service games as long as the favourite does not feel the pressure of trying to reach a home Final for only a second time in his career at this event.

Dominic Thiem is the superior returner and also has the edge when it comes to the serve and I think that should show up on the day. This is a big number if Thiem is not being a little better when it comes to the big points on his own serve, but he should have the majority of chances in this one to get ahead and I think that will see him break down the Italian who has had a surprising week.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 31st)

With some of the tournaments being played in North America and Mexico this week, it does mean that the layers are perhaps taking some time to formulate their markets. This week in particular is an issue because the tournaments are trying to be completed before the Canadian Masters begins this weekend and that means players are being asked to play on consecutive days from very early in the week.

Matches are being played through the night and the winners are going to be playing in the next Round on Wednesday. I will add any Tennis Picks from those matches to this thread and I will also update the weekly totals at that time too.


Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: On Monday both Roberto Carballas Baena and Lorenzo Sonego had to come through difficult First Round matches and their progression came after needing three sets to see off opponents. Tough wins can build character though and there is a chance to build some momentum as they play each other for a place in the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel on Wednesday.

Winning matches is clearly important, but both players will know they could have easily been beaten in the First Round too. It does mean there needs to be an improvement if Carballas Baena or Sonego are going to make it through to the next Round and this match could easily come down to which of the players is able to find that improvement the best.

Out of the two players Carballas Baena has been the more consistent, although the Spaniard has a serve that his opponent's will all feel like they can get into. He is holding 76% of the service games he has played on the clay courts in 2019 and he wins 61% of the points played with both numbers being pretty steady over the last five seasons.

The Spaniard will be expecting to have a little more success when facing Lorenzo Sonego who has struggled with his return on the clay courts having won 36% of return points and breaking in less than 20% of return games played. It does put some pressure on Sonego to make sure he is finding the big first serve with some regularity, but for the most part he has been successful doing that having held 83% of service games played.

It was the serve that got him out of trouble in the First Round against Federico Delbonis with all eight break points saved in the final set decider. However Lorenzo Sonego had a pretty good record against Delbonis which may have helped him from a mental standpoint, but that is not the case against Carballas Baena with three defeats to this opponent.

One of those came earlier this year on the South American Golden Swing, and all have been on the clay courts. Roberto Carballas Baena has found a way to break in 36% of return games played against Lorenzo Sonego and restricted the Italian to 58% of service points won which is someway down on his numbers overall.

I do think Sonego may have more success on his return than he does generally considering Carballas Baena remains at a steady 76% of service games held against the Italian. However Carballas Baena wins a few more service points and I think he will position himself to get the better of Lorenzo Sonego for a fourth time that they have met.

Prior to the win over Delbonis, Lorenzo Sonego had lost six matches in a row on the main ATP Tour on the clay. He will be boosted by snapping that run, but this looks a tough match up for him and I think Roberto Carballas Baena can be backed to win and cover the number.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Dennis Novak: As one of the higher Ranked players at the ATP Kitzbuhel tournament, Pablo Cuevas was given a bye into the Second Round of the draw. This could be an important week for Cuevas as it is the last clay court event with significant World Ranking points attached to it in the 2019 season, although it comes at the end of what has been a poor month for the Uruguayan.

He would have been hoping for much better from appearances in Bastad and Hamburg, but Pablo Cuevas did not receive favourable draws in defeats to Federico Delbonis and Dominic Thiem at those tournaments. This Second Round match looks much more winnable, although Cuevas has only played in Kitzbuhel once before and was upset by a home player in 2017.

Now he has to face Dennis Novak who came through his First Round match very comfortably although he has yet to move beyond the Second Round here. The majority of Novak's time is spent away from the main ATP Tour and the 25 year old Austrian has to be wondering whether he can find the consistency to crack into the top 100 of the World Rankings which would open the door to main Tour events in the future.

Dennis Novak has to be feeling good about the way he has performed when playing on the main Tour in 2019 even though he is only 3-3 on the clay in those matches. He has been holding 83% of the service games he has played in those matches and Novak is also breaking in 21% of return games, but I have to note that in his career Novak only holds in 73% of service games played on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.

He may have a bit more joy against Pablo Cuevas who can be a little erratic when it comes to his return of serve, although the Uruguayan has some strong numbers to fall back upon. He has broken in 30% of return games played on the clay in 2019 and Cuevas has been particularly strong when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 100 as shown by his percentage improving to 38% in that category.

Pablo Cuevas also does possess a strong serve and he does hold 81% of service games played on this surface against players Ranked outside the top 100. It can be difficult for players when they go up against an unfamiliar opponent for the first time, especially one that won't have a lot of film on him like Dennis Novak, but I expect to see Cuevas having a bit too much for him.

It may even need three sets to get it done, but I would expect Cuevas to find the big return games to earn the edge in the match and he can use that return to cover this number.


Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner over 10.5 games first set: A strong First Round win produced by Hubert Hurkacz over Donald Young has set him up with this match against John Isner. The American was one of a number of Seeds who received a bye through to the Second Round in Washington, although a big six weeks are coming up for Isner if he wants to avoid another drop down the World Rankings.

Last year John Isner reached the Quarter Final at the US Open so there are plenty of points he is going to have to defend there. He can make up for it having lost early in both Canada and Cincinnati, but Isner needs some momentum in what has been a difficult year for him.

The serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Isner and we have seen 40 year old Ivo Karlovic continue to be an effective player on the Tour thanks to the serve he possesses. The same is likely going to be the case for Isner who is winning 76% of the points played behind his serve and holding 94% of his service games on the hard courts in 2019.

Suffice to say it will be a huge challenge for Hubert Hurkacz to get his teeth into the return games especially as the Polish player is only winning 35% of return points on the hard courts this year. He has struggled to find the breaks of serve in general and now faces one of the top servers on the Tour.

It does mean there is some pressure on Hurkacz knowing one slip on serve would likely prove to be fatal, but he will be confident he can keep the scoreboard ticking along. Hubert Hurkacz has held 85% of the service games he has played on the hard courts in 2019 and John Isner is an even more limited returner with breaks of serve in just 10% of return games while he wins less than 30% of the points played on an opponent's serve.

You would think the serve is going to be strong for both players at the outset of this match and five of the last seven John Isner matches have needed a tie-breaker to determine the first set. It has not been as common in Hubert Hurkacz matches, but he is likely going to need to serve well to stay with the American and backing the first set to at least reach 5-5 is the play in this one.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Over the last two years Kevin Anderson has played some of his very best tennis on the US hard court swing which concludes with the final Grand Slam of the season. He will be looking for another strong run over the coming weeks and the opening match in Washington looks like being a good one for the big South African.

Kevin Anderson is the Number 4 Seed in Washington and that does mean he received a bye through to the Second Round. That could give Adrian Mannarino some encouragement having put a straight sets win on the board in the First Round, but the Frenchman has to get over the mental obstacle of a really poor head to head with Anderson.

It is Anderson who has won their last four matches head to head on the hard courts including a First Round win at the Australian Open. The South African has held 90% of the service games he has played against Mannarino in those four matches and that is vastly superior to the latter who has only managed to hold 67% of his own service games in that time.

In 2019 Kevin Anderson has held 87% of his service games played on the hard courts and he will feel he can keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure. The Frenchman has been struggling with his return on the hard courts through the season and that increases the pressure on a player who does not have the most effective serve with 76% of his service games being held.

That has contributed to the Mannarino only securing a 5-10 record and I do make Anderson a strong favourite. There are some concerns that covering such a number like this is difficult for a player who has a limited return like Anderson, but even the breaks in 18% of return games might not be such an issue when you think of the way he has matched up with Mannarino.

During the course of this match I think Kevin Anderson can find a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino and he should have enough to cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-John Isner Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.91% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 31st)

As I said on Monday, the next couple of days were going to be those when I just added my Tennis Picks to the blog but without the usual analysis I write down.

With the tournaments split between Europe and Central and North America, I will update the weekly total and also add the Picks from the matches at Washington, San Jose and Los Cabos on Tuesday.


MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (August 3rd)

Novak Djokovic has called an end to his 2017 season with a lingering injury, and another big name will be worrying about their own injury issues going into the next month ahead of the US Open.

Maria Sharapova has only just returned from a long lay off from injury, but she had to pull out of her Second Round match in Stanford, although the Russian insists it is only a precautionary decision. After all the hullabaloo surrounding her return from the ban imposed by the ITF, Sharapova has had a tough time in 2017 with those injuries beginning to have a toll on her.

She is likely going to have to play the Qualifiers at the US Open barring a surprising Wild Card into the main draw and Sharapova will be hoping she can be healthy for the big events in Toronto and Cincinnati upcoming. All in all it has not been the fairytale return to the Tour that some would have been expecting (remember Sharapova was the second favourite to win the French Open a few days after her return to the Tour) and she looks to be in a position where she will simply be hoping to have a few months of injury free tennis before using the off-season to recharge the batteries.


The tournaments being played this week continue on Thursday and the tennis matches are spread throughout the day with events being played in Europe and North and Central America. With the tournaments in Washington and Los Cabos having their markets prepared in the coming hours, I will begin with the two picks from Kitzbuhel before adding any picks I have from those events in Washington, Los Cabos and Stanford.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: It is hard to trust Fabio Fognini when you know this is a player who can blow hot and cold as much as the Italian can. Add in the fact he had a long week in Gstaad where he won the title and those factors do concern me.

He is also facing an opponent in Thomaz Bellucci who is very capable on the clay courts and who has had two solid wins already in the main draw to move into the Quarter Final. Those have come at an important time for the Brazilian who had lost nine of his last ten matches including the last seven in a row before this week.

Some of those losses have been narrow ones which may underline the lack of confidence Bellucci had to be playing with in recent weeks. However narrow losses also means it could be a big ask for Fognini to cover the number of games I am looking from him.

In saying Bellucci has lost some tight matches, I really mean by the numbers rather than on the scoreboard. During his run of nine losses in ten matches, Bellucci was beaten seven times in best of three set matches and would not have covered this number six times.

A poor record against Fognini can't be ignored either, even if there is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind that the Italian could always be in 'gift giving' mode. On this day I am hoping for the motivated Fognini that had been in action last week and I will look for him to find his way past Bellucci with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.


Gerald Melzer + 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: It might be something of a surprise that I am taking the games with a player that spends the majority of his time in tournaments on the Challenger Tour when facing an opponent who has played ATP events throughout 2017. But that is the case when I look for Gerald Melzer to give Joao Sousa plenty to think about in this Quarter Final.

You have to give Melzer credit for another good run in Kitzbuhel as he reached a Quarter Final for the second year in a row. Last year Melzer made it through to the Semi Final and I think the two wins he has this week have to be respected.

Now he faces Joao Sousa who has just started winning matches again after a really poor run of form. Sousa reached the Quarter Final last week in Gstaad and he has done the same here despite previously losing eleven of twelve matches on the Tour. That would have knocked the confidence of Sousa and he has needed three sets twice already this week.

If this one is to go into a third set, Melzer will have his chance to cover with this number of games behind him. Melzer has some confidence having had two strong showings in the Challenger events in Perugia and Cortina, although I do respect the fact that Sousa is an upgrade in level of opponent to anyone that Melzer has played since his participating in the Golden Swing tournaments in South America.

Home comforts may help Melzer control the nerves and I think he can keep this match close. His numbers in 2017 have suggested that too, while Sousa is 0-3 when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2017 and with some poor numbers behind him. I will look for Gerald Melzer to take at least a set and that should give him a chance to cover with the games.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: With the Canada Masters event just a few days away, the ATP event in Los Cabos has reached the Quarter Final Round on Thursday. That will give time for the players to head over to Montreal, even those who may be competing on Finals day, and one of those keen to go all the way will be Tomas Berdych.

A great field hasn't been put together for this draw, which is no surprise with the back to back Masters events which will begin next week. Add in the fact there is an ATP 500 event being played in Washington, and this tournament has felt more in line with a glorified Challenger tournament adding in a couple of big names.

Berdych does look the stand out player in the draw and he is a big favourite to see off Adrian Mannarino against whom he has a 4-0 head to head record. That includes a relatively straightforward win in the Miami Masters on the hard courts and I think Berdych is likely to match that margin here.

On that day it ended 6-3, 7-5 for Berdych as he was able to dictate things behind the serve and force a couple of loose games from the Mannarino serve. While I do think the left-handed Frenchman will be able to get through a few games on serve, he is always close to throwing in a really poor one and that can make up for the declining return numbers Berdych has produced over the last twelve months.

To give Berdych his credit, he has been returning a little better in recent matches and I think that will be enough to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this Quarter Final.


Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are definitely some positive signs for Jared Donaldson as he learns more and more from being on the main ATP Tour. The experiences he is having will be a positive for the 20 year old player in the coming years, but I still think he is a little short of being able to compete with the better players on the Tour.

Jack Sock may not be in the best form and he may have a limited return game which puts pressure on him to serve at his highest level. However he is still strong on the North American hard courts and the heavy forehand can give Donaldson some problems as it did when they met earlier in 2017 in a match where the younger American won just three games.

The Donaldson numbers have been slightly weaker when he has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts compared to when he has faced top 50 players. Slightly weaker service points won and return points won do make a big difference and I think that is going to show up when he faces Sock in the Third Round in Washington.

This isn't the kind of number Sock is used to covering as shown by the fact he has won eleven of twelve matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings on the hard courts, but only in five of those has he covered this number. At odds against it is worth chancing though having shown he can get into the Donaldson service games when they played in Miami as well as Donaldson's generally weaker numbers when serving against top 20 opponents.

Sock will have to take the chances that do come his way, but I think he can earn enough break point chances to bring up three breaks of serve which may be enough for a 7-6, 6-3 win on the day.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: Credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for the way he was serving in his Second Round win over Lucas Pouille, although the Frenchman underlined my belief that his limited return game is going to prevent him staying inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

If Paul is serving as well as he was this will be a tough match for Gilles Muller, although the mental edge belongs to the latter having crushed the young American for the loss of four games last week in Atlanta.

Fatigue may have gotten the better of Paul last week as that defeat came after winning four matches in a row all in three sets. That has to be considered, but Paul will also be dealing with the mental pressure of losing return games fairly comfortably if Muller is serving as well as he can.

This is still a big number of games being asked of Muller and I am only interested because it is offered at odds against for him to cover. He crushed Dmitry Tursunov on Wednesday and Paul is coming off a career best win which can be tough for inexperienced players to back up as we see regularly through the course of a year on the Tour.

Muller serving first would be important and I think he can then earn the two breaks to win this one 6-3, 6-4.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: The problem with backing Simona Halep to cover spreads like this one on the hard courts is the fact that her serve is not the biggest and she has to work so hard to protect it. Over the course of a match that means opponents do have their chances to break serve and those can be critical despite the Romanian being the kind of returner who will create plenty of pressure off the return herself.

The return game is very important on the WTA Tour and Mariana Duque-Marino is capable of breaking the Halep serve. The win over Shelby Rogers was impressive in the First Round, but this is another step up in class for Duque-Marino.

She is facing an opponent who has a 14-3 record on the hard courts over the last four years when facing a player Ranked outside the top 100. Halep has been very good in that spot in 2017 with strong numbers produced, but I don't think those are sustainable which is a concern for me.

However, Halep is 9-5 against this number in those fourteen wins in that time while Duque-Marino is 0-6 lifetime against a top 10 Ranked player and is 1-5 with this number of games behind her. Duque-Marino is also 0-7 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and she has only covered with this number of games once and I do think Halep will prove to be too good on the day.

Clay is the best surface for Mariana Duque-Marino and her numbers on the hard courts are slightly weaker across the board compared with clay. While she challenged Halep on the clay back in 2011, Halep is a much stronger player these days and I will look for her to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.


Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have said for a few years that Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most overrated players on the WTA Tour with many pricing her up on her one strong season back in 2014. While Bouchard did have a winning record in 2016, this is a player that has struggled on the Tour and her Number 59 World Ranking is testament to that.

The Canadian is overrated and that can be highlighted by the fact she has been a favourite twenty-one times over the last twelve months. Bouchard has won just 33% of those matches which is a remarkably poor record (7-14) and some of her best results in that time have come when set as the underdog and the pressure free environment that may be creating for her.

Even her First Round win here came as the underdog against Christina McHale so I am questioning the fact I am taking Bouchard to win this match as the favourite. However I thought she would be a much stronger favourite to beat the declining Andrea Petkovic who has slipped down to Number 78 in the World Rankings.

Petkovic is just 8-15 on the Tour this season and the German is another player who tends to be priced up with her previous form in mind rather than what she is producing on the court these days. Over the last two seasons Petkovic is just 28-35 when playing top 100 Ranked players and that becomes 16-17 on the hard courts.

Both players have had their issues, but I think Bouchard has been the slightly superior performer which can show up on the scoreboard. Expect breaks of serve and expect a deciding set, but I will look for Bouchard to earn the narrow victory and cover this number.


Alison Riske v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The final pick from the Thursday tennis matches comes from Stanford where I am looking for the underdog Alison Riske to get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

I am not entirely sure why Riske is the underdog considering she has the 3-1 advantage on the head to head and has certainly been showing superior form in recent weeks compared with Pavlyuchenkova.

The better hard court results in 2017 have come from Pavlyuchenkova, but she is returning to the surface after a poor grass court season. This is also an event where Riske reached the Semi Final last season and the American put together a solid win in the First Round which will have given her confidence back in Stanford.

The recent numbers on this surface are very similar for both Riske and Pavlyuchenkova and that is where the recent positive form and the head to head lead Riske has could pay off.

It won't be an easy match for Riske if Pavlyuchenkova is at her best with her ability to hit very big and take the racquet out of the hand of the American. However, I think Riske is playing well enough and Pavlyuchenkova has not been in the best form to think the former can come through with a three set win and I will back the underdog here.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-11, - 8.50 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.61% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 18th)

The change in the summer calendar on the ATP Tour to accommodate the Olympic Games means this week is another loaded with tournaments from across the globe. In total there are seven different draws taking place this week, even more than there were last week, with organisers making sure their event is not dropped from the calendar.

That means we get some weaker draws too as most of the top names will look to wait until the big event in Canada begins later this month, while those that are playing this week are spread across the various events.

It does give the chance to players who might not usually get into a main draw of a ATP Tour event, but the quality of that event is clearly lessened at the same time.


Last week was a solid one keeping the picks totals moving in a positive direction after a tough start to the season. A third winning week will be most welcome as we move on to the first of the two Masters events being played on the hard courts in preparation for the US Open. The first of those begins on Monday in Canada which will be the sole event taking place next week, but first we have to get through plenty of tennis this week.


Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games v Facundo Bagnis: It wasn't the best home tournament for Mischa Zverev last week in Hamburg as he was beaten in the First Round by a Qualifier, but that was a really close match. A similar performance would give him a chance to spring a surprise against Facundo Bagnis who reached the Quarter Final in Bastad, especially if his lefty serve gives the Argentinian as many problems as Fernando Verdasco's did last week.

My concern in backing Zverev has to be the fact he has won just one main Tour clay court match since 2011 and spends the majority of his time in Challenger level events these days. The German did win one of those Challenger events on this surface though and he is facing an opponent who generally plays at that level himself, although Bagnis has at least put together some wins at the main Tour level.

Bagnis has won three titles at the Challenger level on clay this season and he has shown he can win matches at the higher level on the red dirt as we only need to look at Bastad last week to see that.

This has all the hallmarks of being a very close match and this isn't a lot of games to be given, but I think they could be enough to keep the older player competitive. Zverev did beat Bagnis in a Challenger event just a couple of weeks ago in what was a match decided by a couple of points here and there. I expect this match to be similar and I am looking for Zverev to keep things close even if he does end up losing the match.


Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: His best days are likely behind him and Alex Kuznetsov is Ranked outside the top 300 in the World Rankings, but I still feel he might be under-rated in this First Round match in Washington. Kuznetsov has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set and he has a more wins in Challenger events/Qualifiers than he managed in the whole of 2015 already.

A couple of strong runs on the hard courts over the last month will have improved his confidence and I don't think Kuznetsov will be intimidated by Bjorn Fratangelo having played three competitive matches against him in 2015.

The younger American reached the top 100 in the World Rankings last month and he has been an improving player on the Tour. Anyone who can beat Novak Djokovic 62 in a set of tennis, as Fratangelo did in Indian Wells, has to be respected, but he does remain inconsistent on the hard courts and that is where Kuznetsov has to feel he will have his chances.

To me this looks a match where Fratangelo is being asked to cover too many games. It was only last week he was beaten outright by a player Ranked lower than Kuznetsov and the latter this week has already put together two wins in Washington to boost confidence. Their previous matches have generally been very competitive and I don't think there is a lot between them even if you consider the 200 places in the World Ranking. All in all I think Kuznetsov will keep this competitive and will take the games on offer.

MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 31.68 Units (1123 Units Staked, - 2.82% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 7th)

This is going to be a very short post because I am seriously pissed off with what has happened over the last month and I try and keep things as civil as possible on here.

The amount of times I have made picks and seen players get into winning positions and then lose or play like shit is just taken its toll on me and I refuse to play along any more.

For four seasons my picks have produced a healthy plus margin and a decent enough yield, but the last month has been absolutely horrific, the worst run in all that time and perhaps the worst run most people would have seen.

There are only so many times you can accept bad luck as part and parcel of things, but this looks like being my worst season by a million miles on the tennis Tour thanks to a run since Wimbledon that has seen 35 positive units erased.

How many times can a pick be in a position like 76, 52 and lose? How many times am I going to deal with a player losing a set 61, but then winning 62, 60 and failing to cover because of that shit set to start?

Players like Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson that will lose every other match they play, but somehow bring out their A++++++ matches when I am against them or F----------- matches when I have backed them, it is those kinds of rubbish that have addled my brain. Players who will break with the one chance they get, but then save three thousand break points, or players that will miss their chances by missing the most basic of shots.

Yes, things go up and down, but it has been embarrassingly one-sided against me in the last month with rubbish after rubbish after rubbish... I'd love to just say the picks have been poor, but that would be a lie as there have been plenty that have just about to win before crumbling away like they never had such a positive start.

Just too many things are taking the piss at the moment and I've had enough.

The football season in both England and America will be beginning soon and I'll be focusing on that, but I am not sure when I will be back making tennis picks. Maybe I'll look at the Canadian Masters/Premier Event, maybe I will decide to be back at the Cincinnati Masters, but I've had too many body blows to be interested in the next few days.

It stinks to be honest, but it is the way it goes and possibly I will wait until the US Open and call it a day for the season after the final Grand Slam with whatever the outcome is from that event.

For now, I've simply had enough. I'm not one to bullshit the results, they are there for all to see and I am sure most will understand that this really has been a unique time where literally everything has gone the wrong way when finely balanced.

Weekly Final: 4-13, - 18.34 Units (34 Units Staked, - 53.94% Yield)

Season 2015: - 2.57 Units (1260 Units Staked, - 0.02% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Note: On July 20th, the season total was + 35.25 Units with an almost 4% Yield which just proves how horrendous the last three weeks have been.

I'm also calling both Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson lose their matches on this day in embarrassingly one-sided fashion just to prove that luck is really conspiring against me.

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 6th)

You wouldn't think it was too difficult coming back from a set down to comfortably win tennis matches if you have been following the picks in the last couple of days. Jiri Vesely and Robin Haase both won sets with games in hand and still failed to get the job done, despite the former also serving for the match, while Bernard Tomic was another player who won the first set and went on to lose the match.

It feels like a bad couple of breaks that are letting down the week, but there is room to get back into a decent position if players begin to finish the positions they are getting into.

It also makes me laugh how brutal players are when they get into break point chances against my players picked this week, but are shockingly bad at taking those same chances when not being picked against!


Fabio Fognini v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This is the best Quarter Final taking place in Kitzbuhel today and I believe the winner might be the favourite to go on and win the title.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won two of the three previous matches between these players, but Fabio Fognini won the most recent and has the quality to level up the head to head.

He can be hard to really trust as Fognini is just as capable of throwing in a performance where he barely looks like he wants to be on the court and he has to work hard to win his points. The Italian has shown better recent form than Kohlschreiber, although the latter has two decent wins under his belt this week which makes him dangerous once he gets on a roll.

I can see that as the reason that Kohlschreiber is perhaps favoured in this match as well as the long week that Fognini had in Hamburg where he came up just short against Rafael Nadal. However, a similar performance to one he had in the Final will be good enough for Fognini to beat Kohlschreiber in this one, although he might need three sets to do it.


Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: I wouldn't have picked either of these players to reach the Quarter Final and if it wasn't for Jiri Vesely choking away a 76, 52 lead, Nicolas Almagro certainly wouldn't be here. I am not convinced that the Spaniard is really to be trusted at short odds to make it through to the Semi Final even if Dusan Lajovic is not exactly in the greatest of form this past few weeks.

However, I think Lajovic is able to work through some games and will have chances to break the Almagro serve and winning a set should, and I mean should, be enough to make these games count. It hasn't so far with players winning sets with games in hand to begin, but Almagro hasn't looked like blowing anyone away and does look a vulnerable favourite.

The convincing loss to Pablo Andujar last week worries me when backing Lajovic, but Almagro hasn't been in the form to suggest he can win comfortably. Lajovic will have to protect his serve better than he did in his win over Andreas Seppi, especially in the first set, but he should have opportunities.

I simply also don't believe Almagro is such a big favourite in this one and Lajovic is worth backing with the games in his favour at odds against.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: You have to think the last two weeks has taken some kind of physical toll on Dominic Thiem, but the two titles he has won has to be worth that effort. He had to dig deep in his first match in Kitzbuhel to come through in three sets, but the home tournament should inspire him to put in another big effort this week as he looks for a third title in a row.

A couple of years ago he was beaten comfortably by Albert Montanes here, but I think he can get a measure of revenge by moving into the Semi Final with a 64 63 win in this one.

Montanes has played well this week, but this has been an exception to previous weeks on the Tour as the veteran has begun to slip down the Rankings. The clay courts remain his favoured surface, but this is also where Thiem has won all of his titles this season and I think he will have gotten something out of his Second Round win.

The quality should be on the side of Thiem and his younger legs should respond to being at home and trying to win another title. Montanes has been very good this week, but he has taken some heavy losses prior to the week and I think Thiem is too good for him in this Quarter Final.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: Coming back from a long lay off on the Tour is difficult as Andy Murray found out to his cost on Wednesday, but I expect better from Agnieszka Radwanska. She faces Misaki Doi who looks to be a very good match up for her in her return to the Tour and I do think Radwanska wins with something to spare.

One concern would be the confidence that Doi has picked up from three consecutive wins in Stanford, but when she loses, she does tend to lose comfortably. That might be because Doi doesn't have a serve that can give her too many cheap points and the best players on Tour would expect to out-rally her when those points develop.

Since the beginning of the 2015 season, Doi has lost five matches on the hard courts and they have come by margins of 7, 6, 4, 6, 9 games each. Radwanska might not have had the best of years by her high standard, but the run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon might have sparked her and I expect a couple of decent runs during this hard court North American swing.

I think she will outwork Doi in the rallies and is happy enough to be out on court all day if she needs to and I expect Radwanska to win this 64, 62 once she gets settled back on the hard courts.


Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Kimiko Date-Krumm: Another player who is making a long awaited return to the Tour is Karolina Pliskova who decided to skip events between Wimbledon and her return to Stanford. That is the biggest concern in wondering if she can get off to a flyer, but the match up with Kimiko Date-Krumm gives her every chance to do so.

The veteran had to dig incredibly deep to come through the First Round here against Sabine Lisicki and you have to think that has taken something out of the tank. Date-Krumm was 61, 41 down in that match, but turned it around to win in three sets and I think Pliskova may have a chance to pick her off in this match.

A lay off can cause problems in terms of rhythm and that would be my biggest concern for Pliskova who did crush Kimiko Date-Krumm for the loss of just four games here last year. However, that came after she had played a couple of other tournaments between Wimbledon and Stanford so I think this will be closer, although Pliskova should have the quality to overcome her opponent.

It might take a set to get used to being back in a competitive setting, but I then expect Pliskova to pull clear in a 64, 62 win.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: After a difficult first set which Kei Nishikori dropped in the Second Round, he got back to form and moved into the Third Round relatively comfortably. After a strong run at the US Open last year when reaching the Final, Nishikori might have bigger expectations over the next six weeks than he did twelve months ago and he will expect to win the title in Washington.

His next opponent won't be easy to overcome as Leonardo Mayer has put together another solid season and looks set to surpass his career best number of wins in a single season. Mayer has a decent serve which will give Nishikori something to think about, but the latter has found a way to neutralise that in their previous matches and eventually crack through.

Nishikori has now won all six sets against Mayer and he hasn't lost more than four games in any of the last five sets after the first one they played went to a tie-breaker. Last year in New York, Nishikori beat Mayer 64, 62, 63 in the Third Round and he has the returning ability to break the Argentinian down again.

Leonardo Mayer is playing his first tournament since Davis Cup action in early July and struggled in the Second Round match which he won in three tight sets. His physical strength will be tested through this match and I expect Nishikori to eventually wear him down in a 63, 64 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: Steve Johnson fans might be happy I am opposing their man again in the Third Round considering he has produced his best tennis in the last couple of months when I have been backing his opponent. However, I think Grigor Dimitrov is capable of seeing off the American who I simply doubt can serve as effectively as he did in his Second Round win over Bernard Tomic.

I will say I have been impressed with Johnson's performances with some more consistency in his wins, but he has also produced some really bad stuff. Losses to Tatsuma Ito and Ricardis Berankis would have been seriously unexpected and I do think Johnson is someone who can throw in a real wobbly performance.

My concern for Grigor Dimitrov is how he is going to react to his break up with Maria Sharapova and whether 2015 is already something of a write off for him. Too many poor losses and not enough deep runs in big events has to be a real disappointment for a talented player and this is likely going to be the lowest number of wins in a single season since 2012 as he is nowhere near the 45 wins he achieved in 2014.

Dimitrov did beat Johnson in straight sets at Wimbledon and I think he is the better player who will have been given a boost by his Second Round win. He has to serve well to keep some pressure on Johnson and I do think Dimitrov is able to get more joy from the return games than Tomic did as he works his way throygh to a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-8, - 10.16 Units (22 Units Staked, - 46.18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 5th)

It was a disappointing day on Tuesday after a couple of players got into a position to come in as winners, but failed to either serve out the match when they had the chance or couldn't take their break point chances to pressure their opponents.

On Wednesday the Second Round matches in Kitzbuhel and Stanford will get underway, while the tournament in Washington moves ahead with that Round after having a few of the matches played on Tuesday.

Like the first couple of days, I am going to have to add picks from the North American tournaments on Wednesday as the markets are not ready to go just yet.


Robin Haase + 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: This might be a tournament where Robin Haase has enjoyed considerable success in the past, but he has to be feeling incredibly fortunate to still be involved in Kitzbuhel this year. It was only an unfortunate injury suffered by Juan Monaco in the First Round that helped Haase through after he had dropped the first set 62, although he might feel he could have turned things around.

Now it is up to the Dutchman to take advantage of the fortune he has received.

He has a tough Second Round match against Federico Delbonis who had an impressive First Round win over Pablo Carreno Busta but who has been inconsistent over the last three weeks. Delbonis can sometimes become very erratic with is play from behind the baseline and his serve can thus be a little vulnerable.

This has usually been a pretty productive time of the season for Robin Haase, but he has also been inconsistent and might feel he has missed the chance to improve his World Ranking. However, Haase can make this a competitive match if he can get back to his previous form at this tournament, especially if Delbonis is not quite at his very best.

It is a surprise to me that Haase is being given as many games as he is in this match because I do think Delbonis is never that far away from a meltdown in a single set and that could see the Dutchman cover even in a losing effort.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: These two players met in the Qualifiers for the Monte Carlo Masters earlier this season and it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who came out on top against Albert Montanes in a break-filled match.

You can't really say either player is in very good form, but Montanes has mainly earned some wins at the Qualifier level and the veteran is no longer producing a lot of wins on the main Tour. The clay courts are of course Montanes' favourite domain, but Schwartzman is also very comfortable on this surface and his losses recently can be at least forgiven.

The defeat to Denis Istomin came after a long trip to Europe following his representing Argentina in the Davis Cup, while Pablo Cuevas has been very consistent on the clay. This is the kind of match that Schwartzman will be expecting to win at this stage of his career and his win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the First Round should have given him a confidence boost.

Neither player has a serve that will give them a lot of cheap points, but I think Schwartzman is capable of using his superior movement to win the majority of the rallies. It should be another match between the two that features a number of breaks, but I think Schwartzman is able to get the better of those situations and win this 64, 64.


Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: It was a strong week for Andreas Seppi last week in Hamburg and he has been given the chance for another by receiving a bye in the First Round in Kitzbuhel. That means he only needs to win four matches to take the title home, and Seppi might certainly be looking at the bottom half of the draw as a chance to reach the Final.

The first match Seppi has to play here looks a tough one against Dusan Lajovic who is looking to move back into the top 100 of the World Rankings. Lajovic was a comfortable winner over the veteran Mikhail Youzhny, but recently had to retire from a match with an injury and I am not sure if he is fully recovered.

He was beaten comfortably by Pablo Andujar last week and has lost his two previous matches against Seppi without winning a set. Seppi has some ability on the court, but he is like Andujar in trying to be as consistent as possible and I think that consistency will eventually wear down Lajovic in this one.

My only issue with Seppi has to be his weakness on serve which will give Lajovic a chance to get into the match, but I expect the Italian to have enough to come through 75, 64.


Victor Troicki - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: The biggest question for me in this match is how is Victor Troicki going to react to his devastating Davis Cup defeat last month? After some really good performances over the grass court season, Troicki was the Number 1 for Serbia going into the tie with Argentina and looked to have levelled it up when 2-0 up in sets against Federico Delbonis.

However, Troicki was beaten in five sets and makes his first appearance on the Tour since then- devastating Davis Cup defeats have sent some players spiralling into a poor run of form in the past and Troicki will want to avoid that fate to keep his Ranking up after a strong twelve months.

The match with Sam Groth is dangerous simply because of the size of the serve he will be facing, but Troicki will feel he can get the better of the Australian having beaten him on the grass courts six weeks ago. Groth has struggled to back up his own strong performance in the Davis Cup last month with early exits in Bogota and Atlanta, while he had a tough First Round win.

If Troicki had been a regular on Tour, he might be a bigger favourite to win the match. The lack of tennis is a concern as is his move to the hard courts, but I think Troicki makes enough balls back in play to win this 76, 64.


Bernard Tomic - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: It has been a strange few weeks for Bernard Tomic who was removed from the Australian Davis Cup team after criticising the Association, arrested in Miami, and then won the title in Bogota.

He battled hard in that tournament in Colombia to take the title home and makes his first appearance on the North American hard courts this summer. The Second Round match against Steve Johnson is going to be a difficult one, especially as the American has been playing well and would have some confidence having beaten Tomic on the grass courts in June.

However, it has to be pointed out that Johnson has lost five matches in a row since that win over Bernard Tomic if you count out his wins against Lukas Lacko. Johnson beat Lacko in the First Round for the third time in the space of around six weeks, but I expect Tomic to pose more problems than he did in Halle.

There have been times that Johnson has really put together some solid service gams, but Tomic is a decent returner and I do think he makes enough balls to come through in three tough sets.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Andy Murray has admitted that it took him a little bit of time to get used to being back on the hard courts after his strong grass court campaign. However, I would fully expect him to be ready for his Second Round match in Washington as his preparation for the US Open gets underway.

He is playing Teymuraz Gabashvili who won his First Round match, but this is a player who won his first match since returning from Wimbledon so won't be much further along than Murray in hard court preparation.

The win will give Gabashvili confidence and he is actually much more talented than his 53 World Ranking, but his serve can be a weakness and Murray is one of the returners on the Tour that could keep him under pressure.

Murray's own serve can sometimes let him down, especially the second serve, when he is playing someone who will take risks with a 'nothing to lose' attitude. I expect Gabashvili may play the first set very close, but eventually Murray will knuckle down and come through 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Robin Haase + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.16 Units (12 Units Staked, - 1.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 4th)

The tournaments this week have been spread across North America and Europe and that means that the markets are not always available when I first put up my post.

The event in Kitzbuhel has put up their markets for the remaining First Round matches that will be played on Tuesday, but any picks from Washington or Stanford will be made at around lunchtime.


Jiri Vesely + 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The layers have not lost faith in Nicolas Almagro just yet, but I have my doubts after watching some of his recent losses. While Jiri Vesely hasn't been producing a lot of wins over the last couple of weeks, his losses to Fabio Fognini and Rafael Nadal in two close matches look much better than the defeats Almagro has suffered against Denis Istomin and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

It hasn't been a great season for Vesely as he is trying to find the consistency on the Tour to improve his World Ranking, but he has played both Fognini and Nadal close.

Vesely has a big serve that can give him a chance to run through games, while I also do feel that Nicolas Almagro has lost half a step around the court. That has seen him struggle to protect his serve and Vesely has every chance of winning at least one set in this match which should give him a chance to make this a close one.

The Spaniard just hasn't looked good over the last few weeks and he will have to show he is willing to dig much deeper than he has looked like doing in his last couple of losses. A couple of years ago I would have made Almagro a healthy favourite to win a match like this, but now I think Vesely has closed the gap to enough of an extent to make this number of games look appealing.


Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Christina McHale: This is the first time these players are back on the Tour since Wimbledon, although it is perhaps more understandable for Coco Vandeweghe who had a fantastic run in South West London last month.

They would both have now focused on getting ready for the US Open as both Vandeweghe and Christina McHale should be very comfortable on the hard courts in North America. Both will see this as a chance to build some real Ranking points over the next six weeks, but I also think neither would have been that happy of having to face the other in the First Round in Washington.

I think both McHale and Vandeweghe will feel they have underperformed on the hard courts over the last couple of years, although the latter can at least point to a winning record on the surface. There are some similarities with the way they will approach the match as both have decent serves that can set up their holds of serve, but both are also inconsistent off the ground.

This will come down to which player is able to make the most balls with their high risk approach, but I think Vandeweghe has shown more potential to really hit the heights in the women's game. I like what McHale can produce at times, but she doesn't do it for long enough and I fancy Vandeweghe to come through in two tight sets.


Jarmila Gajdosova - 3.5 games v Naomi Broady: It has to be considered something of a surprise to see Naomi Broady in the main draw in Washington after she won a couple of qualifiers as she has never played a hard court match at this level before. The two wins she earned to get into the main draw will make her a threat against the inconsistent Australian Jarmila Gajdosova, although I think the latter is still going to be a little too good for the British player who is Ranked outside the top 200.

The simple fact remains that Broady doesn't usually compete at this level because she has not been good enough and some of her losses in the lower levels back that up. That isn't to say you can just dismiss her chances of the upset because she has those wins in the qualifiers to build confidence and Gajdosova isn't exactly unknown for losing matches she shouldn't.

It is also the first time Gajdosova has had a competitive match in six weeks and that does play a part, but I think the Aussie player has enough power in her shots to give Broady too many problems to deal with.

I'd be surprised if Gajdosova blows Broady away simply because of her lack of competitive matches of late compared with the British player, but I think she comes through 75, 63.


Polona Hercog - 4.5 games v Julia Glushko: Polona Hercog has begun to make a move back up the World Rankings, but she is going into the Washington tournament having played in a couple of European clay court events over the last month. She played well in those tournaments reaching a Semi Final and a Quarter Final in consecutive weeks so Hercog should be coming in with some confidence for the North American hard court swing.

She was beaten in the First Round in Washington last year and hasn't really produced a lot of wins on the hard courts during 2015, but Hercog has shown she is perhaps a little too good for those who have to come through qualifiers.

That is where Julia Glushko has been putting together the wins to get into the main draw and that makes her dangerous simply by knowing what the conditions are offering. However, Glushko isn't having a really strong season and I think she has been found out when reaching the main Tour level of events.

Glushko had lost eight matches in a row on the Singles court prior to her two qualifier wins, but Hercog has the power to push her backwards in this one and has performed better at the highest level. She dominated her in the qualifiers for Cincinnati last season and I expect Hercog to win this one 64, 63.


Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Guido Pella: The deep run in Atlanta might be the biggest concern for Marcos Baghdatis coming into Washington as the recovery time from Sunday to Tuesday is not exactly that great. He came up short in the Final on Sunday, but Baghdatis has been playing quite well over the last couple of months and I like his chances to win this First Round match.

At one point it looked like Guido Pella was ready to make a real move in the World Rankings, but he has struggled for consistency and he hasn't won a main Tour match since Bogota over twelve months ago. The majority of his time is spent on the clay courts, but Pella has been following the Tour a little more over the last couple of months, even if the wins haven't been forthcoming.

His lefty serve will cause Baghdatis some problems and the long week may have a physical toll on the Cypriot, but I think he is still able to come through after getting to grips with things. The two qualifier wins will have given Pella some confidence to take into this match, but some of his losses on the hard courts this season have been disappointing.

I think Baghdatis will need to serve well to put some pressure on Pella, but the latter's serve is vulnerable and I expect Baghdatis to win 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jarmila Gajdosova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Polona Hercog - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.02 Units (4 Units Staked, + 100.50% Yield)