Tennis Picks Thursday 13 October (Shanghai Masters)

Not quite the final outcome I was looking for yesterday as Fernando Verdasco won a tight first set against Juan Carlos Ferrero, but then proceeded to fall apart and lose in 3 sets.

It has been a strange tournament so far with big surprises, for example Kei Nishikori beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 3 sets, but the big favourites Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are still there and could only have shortened in the outright markets.

We have reached the last 16 now and my picks for Thursday are below:

Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Rafael Nadal has been in very good form since the US Open and has not dropped off from that bad defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Final and he has plenty of ambitions to reach the Number 1 ranking in the World again.

He should be too strong for Florian Mayer, who surprised me in the last round by beating David Nalbandian, as the German's serve will not give him enough free points and I expect him to be ground down by the Spaniard.


Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: I am not the biggest fan of backing Alexandr Dolgopolov because he can play so hot and cold at times that he is hard to read. However, he is a player that can build momentum in tournaments and I think he is in line for a big week.

Bernard Tomic has had a big win this week over Mardy Fish so confidence should be high in the young Australian, but he too is a player that has not gained the consistency in his play just yet and I have a feeling this could be after the Lord Mayor's show for him as he tries to build on the win over Fish.

Dolgopolov has taken care of Tomic twice before, both wins coming on the hard courts in Australia, and I think he can complete his hat-trick at a decent price.



MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Shanghai Masters: 1-2, - 2.20 Units

Tennis Picks August 16th Cincinnati

A good start to the week as 3 of the 4 picks came up trumps yesterday and the form from the back end of last week has continued. I am hoping to ride this hot hand a little further, as we have a lot of options to choose from today.

On to the Picks:

Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.

He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.

Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.


Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.

However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.


Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.

Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.

Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.

Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.

The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.


Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.

The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.

I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.


Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.

Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.

Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.


Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.

However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.

The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.


MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)



WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units

Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg

I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.

I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.

Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.

Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.

The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.

I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.

Now on to the Picks:

Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.

Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.

Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.

Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.

Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.

He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.

Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.

Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.

Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.

Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.

Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.

Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.

Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.

However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.

If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units