Boxing Picks 2025- Moses Itauma vs Dillian Whyte (Saturday 16th August)

There are some big cards being put together for later in the year, but Boxing always needs crossroads fights and those involving up and coming fighters with real potential who are trying to take the scalp of an old lion.

That is the case in the headline act in Riyadh on Saturday evening when two British Heavyweights main event and there looks to be some decent action on the undercard too.

It has not been a good year for the Boxing Picks, to say the least, but it has been a decent enough year for the sport and with some solid looking fights still to come in the calendar year and beyond.

We are now just four weeks away from the massive Canelo vs Crawford fight headlining in Vegas, but there are also a couple of cards coming together in November that will be very appealing. Hopefully more will be announced in what has been a relatively slow news cycle for the second half of the Boxing year, but the attention of the sport will soon be turning to a Super-Fight in early September.

Moses Itauma vs Dillian Whyte

After an early loss to Anthony Joshua, Dillian Whyte rebuilt with some decent wins and ended up picking up an Interim version of the World Title.

Wins over Dereck Chisora (twice) and Joseph Parker are solid performances to put on the resume, while defeats to Joshua and Tyson Fury were perhaps expected.

One loss to Alexander Povetkin was avenged, but a failed drugs test mean Dillian Whyte was unable to try and do the same against old rival Anthony Joshua and to say he has been inactive is an understatement.

He did fight twice last year, but not nearly at the level he is about to step in with, and you do have to wonder how much is left in the tank.

Dillian Whyte has clearly worked hard and he will be fighting at his lowest weight since 2012, but that is also going to have been tough on a 37 year old body.

Looking for speed and movement might be the plan, but Whyte is in with Moses Itauma who looks the best prospect in the Heavyweight Division.

Even calling him a prospect may be underplaying how far Moses Itauma has come in his young career and this next step is a chance to announce himself as a genuine contender. Talk of fighting Oleksandr Usyk is perhaps premature, but Itauma will be in line to fight for a Number 1 contender or a potential vacant World Title with a victory and he looks to have been given this match up at a very good time.

Speed, movement and power from a southpaw stance makes Moses Itauma incredibly dangerous, although there are still some wanting to see how he handles some pushback. That is what Dillian Whyte is supposed to give him on Saturday, but it does feel like the veteran may have lost some of the punch resistance and the lighter weight could make it tough to absorb the same sort of punches that he once did.

The hope for the Moses Itauma team is that Dillian Whyte can help answer some of the questions about their man, while also helping him bank some Rounds. However, the feeling is that this is a big name being sought at the right time and Itauma can put the punches together to force an early Stoppage.

Each of the last three Dillian Whyte defeats have been by Stoppage, but he did go Seven Rounds with Joshua and Six Rounds with Tyson Fury... That was some time ago now though and the inactivity could see the veteran moved aside a little quicker by a young, fresh, hungry opponent.

The undercard features a number of fighters that are perhaps hoping to use the platform to push onto bigger and better bouts.

Nick Ball is the only male World Champion that represents Great Britain, which is quite a shocking indication of where British Boxing currently stands.

He defends his World Title against Sam Goodman, an Australian who is unbeaten but who had two opportunities to fight Naoya Inoue. Both were lost due to injury withdrawals, but Goodman will arrive in Riyadh looking for a big win that may move him to the front of the queue to face The Monster.

It has long been rumoured that Nick Ball would have that shot so there is plenty on the line for both.

The feeling is that Nick Ball can wear down an opponent who has had some decent wins, but who may not have the firepower to deter the British fighter.

Another fighter expected to earn a Stoppage win is Filip Hrgovic who is facing David Adeleye.

The Croatian has all of the attributes to be a top Heavyweight, but has failed to impress at times with some accusing Hrgovic of coasting within bouts.

A firefight with Daniel Dubois ended in a defeat, but David Adeleye is coming up multiple levels and may not be able to stand up to the shots that Filip Hrgovic will hand out.

MY PICKS: Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Nick Ball to Win by KO/TKO @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Filip Hrgovic to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 18-54, - 30.37 Units (88 Units Staked, - 34.51% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 16th)

Earlier this week I had some poor luck with some of the selections made, but on Thursday it was my own fault as I allowed a couple of Picks to slip through that I should not have.

Those involving Roger Federer and Simona Halep broke the rules that have been successful in 2019 and I have to hold my hands up and say that's on me. I would still have picked the other three as I did even though two of those selections were losing ones on the day, but I have to say I am disappointed with myself for breaking my own rules.


On Friday we are into the Quarter Finals of both the ATP and WTA event being played this week in Cincinnati. We have had some upsets in Cincinnati which bode well for the way the US Open could go from an entertainment point of view, although Novak Djokovic continues to look like the man to beat.

In the women's draw I think a strong case could be made for almost ten different players at the final Grand Slam of the season, but it does mean the draw is going to be all-important there as players look to lay down a final marker in the final few days at Cincinnati.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: 2019 continues to be a very special year for Roberto Bautista Agut who is getting married later in the year and producing his best tennis of his career on the courts. Another strong run in Cincinnati has taken him through to the Quarter Final and the Spaniard is a pretty big favourite to see off Richard Gasquet.

The latter has to be respected as he begins to round back into form after injury meant a later start to 2019 than the rest of the Tour. Richard Gasquet reached the Third Round last week in Montreal but it was Bautista Agut who ended that run and the layers don't really believe it is going to be much different this time around.

The Frenchman has been in decent form over the last couple of weeks with 84% of his service games being held and finding a break in 22% of return games. Richard Gasquet has a very similar number in terms of his serve over the last twelve months on the hard courts, although he has been returning a little more effectively.

It is the case here in Cincinnati too where Gasquet has produced some impressive numbers, although this match looks to to be the toughest he would have faced in this Masters event. There will be confidence in his play, but Roberto Bautista Agut has some very strong numbers of his own and has the mental edge thanks to the head to head between these players.

Over the course of 2019, Bautista Agut has held 88% of his service games played on the hard courts and broken in 24% of return games. This week the Spaniard is at 93% and 33% respectively in those categories and I think his win in the Third Round was very, very impressive and makes the Spaniard a deserved favourite.

In their four previous hard court matches, Roberto Bautista Agut has held 86% of his service games played compared with Richard Gasquet who is at 67%. Last week in Montreal it was only a poor conversion rate when it came to break points that prevented Bautista Agut winning by a more comfortable scoreline than the 7-5, 7-5 he produced.

The head to head and the 2019 form gives Roberto Bautista Agut the edge in this match and I do think he can cover what is a big handicap on paper. He can be backed at odds against to do that and I will look for the higher Ranked player to be more effective when it comes to the break points that sees him through to the Semi Final.


David Goffin - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: These two players met at the end of last month when the Tour was visiting Washington and it was Yoshihito Nishioka who worked his way past David Goffin in three sets. The young Japanese player deserved his win that day having been the slightly stronger returner, but there isn't a big difference between them and I do think the Belgian has been playing the stronger tennis so far this week in Cincinnati.

It has been a solid 2019 for Nishioka, but his numbers have been bolstered by his performance in Cincinnati where he came through the Qualifiers. However it does have to be said that the numbers are fairly standard with 61% of points won behind serve and 40% of return points won which means Nishioka is always in potentially tight matches.

This week Yoshihito Nishioka has won 84% of the service games played in Cincinnati and he has broken in 23% of return games. Those are good numbers, but he has played a lot of tennis already and Nishioka has won three tight matches which suggests there isn't a lot of margin for error in this match against someone who has improved Round by Round in Cincinnati.

David Goffin has not enjoyed a very good 2019 as I mentioned yesterday, but he has put some wins together which will give him confidence as he looks to match the Semi Final run achieved in this event twelve months ago. The serve has not been as effective as Goffin would have liked in this season, but he has held 85% of his service games through the first three matches here and broken in 32% of return games.

Consecutive straight sets wins will help the belief in the Belgian who has underachieved so far in 2019 and I think the edge can be with him in terms of the potential fatigue that his opponent is feeling. Add in the slightly superior serving numbers this week and I think David Goffin can edge out Yoshihito Nishioka in this Quarter Final.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He has never been beyond the Fourth Round of any Grand Slam event, but Daniil Medvedev has joined the top 10 of the World Rankings and continues to produce some stunning tennis on the North American hard courts. Over the last month he has reached the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Montreal and Medvedev is not stopping there with a strong run to the Quarter Final in Cincinnati.

At this point I would say it would be a huge disappointment if Medvedev is not able to make the Quarter Final at the US Open regardless of the draw he receives. He should be Seeded to the point that he avoids the very biggest names on the Tour and Medvedev is playing with the kind of confidence that should see him feel confident in beating most put in front of him.

It was Novak Djokovic who beat Medvedev in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has not allowed the disappointment to linger while producing a 28-8 record on the hard courts in 2019. Daniil Medvedev's numbers in 2019 and have been impressive, but they hold true for the last twelve months on the hard courts which suggests he has found a consistent level having held 86% of service games played in that time and broken in 29% of return games.

He has been even more impressive since Wimbledon came to a conclusion as Medvedev has held 89% of service games played in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati combined. At the same time Daniil Medvedev has improved to breaks in 35% of return games played and he has lost just seventeen games in three Rounds here.

It is going to very difficult to beat Medvedev on his current form, but his young compatriot has to be feeling very good too after Andrey Rublev beat Roger Federer in the Third Round in straight sets. That was far from a lucky win as Rublev dominated in most aspects of the match and he has a solid number of 79% of service games being held on the hard courts over the last twelve months while breaking in 24% of return games.

Those make him dangerous and Rublev has been in fine form in Cincinnati having come through the Qualifiers. He has held 96% of service games played this week and broken in 22% of return games so the form is comparable to what Daniil Medvedev is producing, although I do wonder how he will have handled such a huge win over Roger Federer on Thursday.

I do expect Medvedev to challenge the Rublev serve more than most considering his performances on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He does have a slight mental edge having won their sole previous match on the Tour, although I do think Rublev and Medvedev have likely seen plenty of the other to at least not allow the Quarter Final status of this match affect the performances too much.

Backing up a huge win like the one Rublev had is always a difficult challenge and I will back Medvedev to continue his dominant form by producing a big win in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 9-11, - 5.28 Units (40 Units Staked, - 13.20% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 16th)

This week has been a little up and down for the Tennis Picks and Wednesday was no different after seeing two picks return as winners and two head to the loser's enclosure.

It was a little frustrating as Kei Nishikori blew a 4-1 lead in the first set to lose seven games in a row against Stan Wawrinka and he never recovered from that moment. Angelique Kerber also had a number of opportunities to really take control of her Second Round match before missing the cover by one game so I have to be a little disappointed.

However it is still a winning week as we have reached the Third Round.

On Thursday there look to be a number of options to play after what has been a relatively quiet first three days from the Cincinnati Tennis Picks. The rain could be a real factor though and I would not be surprised if many of these Third Round matches are held over until Friday when the winners will have to play a Third Round and Quarter Final on the same day,

That's not something that will concern me too much just yet, but the tournament organisers would love to get into a position to get this event back on track as there are already some Second Round matches that have to be completed. The forecast is not great for the Thursday, but these are my Third Round Picks.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: With a game like the one that Robin Haase possesses I think I would have expected him to have had some stronger results on the hard courts than he has had in his career. There have been some very strong runs in tournaments which have to be respected, but the consistency can be lacking with the majority of problems coming from a return game which is no better than average.

This could be a period of seeing the good Haase playing on the hard courts as he has backed up a decent week in Toronto by making it through to the Third Round in Cincinnati. Haase reached the Quarter Final last week and he has already beaten Alexander Zverev here in Cincinnati which has to give the Dutchman some real belief he can make a move up the World Rankings.

The run here may have come as a surprise to the fans, but Haase may have surprised himself too having previously lost his only two other matches played at this tournament. He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Zverev, but you need that bit of luck as the lower Ranked player against someone as strong as the German and so Haase should come into this Third Round match with some real confidence.

It is a very tough match up for Haase who has lost both previous matches against Pablo Carreno Busta, although both were on the clay courts and they haven't played each other in recent years. Carreno Busta has played well enough to win his first two matches here, but he hasn't always felt at his best on what could be considered some of the quickest hard courts on the Tour.

I do think Haase has the bigger serve in this match, but the wet conditions may make it a little easier for Carreno Busta to get his superior return game working. The Spaniard has actually been serving just effectively enough to win matches on the hard courts and his numbers have been far better than in previous years on this surface.

If he can maintain the standards that have helped him reach the US Open Semi Final in 2017 and also the Semi Final at the Miami Masters I do give Carreno Busta the edge in this match. It can be hard to trust the Spaniard with a serve that can quickly capitulate in a single set, but I think he has been in decent enough form and is returning well enough to get the better of Haase as the latter looks to back up one of his better wins of the season.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise if we need three sets to separate the players in this Third Round match, but I give the edge to Carreno Busta and think he returns well enough to cover this number.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: If you like your tennis full of big serving and heavy groundstrokes from the baseline then this Third Round match is going to be for you. Both Karen Khachanov and Marin Cilic will look to produce big first serves which will allow them to dictate rallies behind strong forehands and I don't think this will be a long match simply as both players should be able to run through some service games with a 'wham-bam' style of play.

Marin Cilic will always be a popular dark horse to win the big titles on the hard courts with his game tailor made for this surface. He has a big serve and is a decent returner, while the former US Open Champion reached the Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018 to prove he can go deep into Grand Slams across the world.

Last week was a little disappointing from Cilic's point of view with the Quarter Final exit from the Canadian Masters coming in a tough luck situation against Rafael Nadal. Have no doubt that Cilic will feel he missed a big opportunity to beat the World Number 1, but the overall performance has to put him in a good position to have a deep run in Cincinnati and the US Open which begins in less than two weeks.

Cilic has significantly improved his serving numbers on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2017 and that has been a key to some of his successes. The break percentage is down, but he has won a higher percentage of return points which suggests he has been a little unfortunate on that side of his game and could have another strong run in him.

There will have to be a healthy respect for Karen Khachanov who reached the Semi Final in Toronto last week before going down to Rafael Nadal. This has been a decent year on the hard courts for the young Russian and he has backed up that run with two wins in the main draw in Cincinnati and confidence has to be coursing through Khachanov at the moment.

Khachanov has a very impressive serve which makes him a dangerous opponent especially on this court in Cincinnati. However the reason he has yet to really make a significant impact on the Tour is the return game which has proven to be an issue when he has stepped up to take on some of the better players on the Tour.

It does feel like that will be the case here and that is where I think Cilic has enough of an edge to come through this Third Round match. There will be times the Croatian may get frustrated as he does have some difficulties to get into the Khachanov service games and he will have to avoid throwing away a loose service game in that situation. If Cilic can do that I think he will get his chances against the Khachanov serve and I will back the top ten player to win this match and cover the number.


Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v David Goffin: It has been very interesting to see the development of Kevin Anderson in recent years and the hard work he has put in has been rewarded with his best tennis being played in the last couple of years. The South African was a US Open Finalist in 2017 so he does have some big points to defend in the next month to keep his World Ranking as high as it is, but you have to give Anderson a lot of credit for continuing to produce a consistent brand of tennis.

Anderson is always going to be dangerous on the hard courts with the serve he has and the conditions in Cincinnati may only aid him that much more. He has also improved his return game in the last couple of years on this surface which has helped Anderson in producing his best results in his career, although no one will confuse the top ten player with the top returners on the Tour.

However that side of his game is also aided by the very strong serving displays which does put pressure on opponents to hold onto their own serve. On Thursday it will be David Goffin who tries to do that having had a tough couple of weeks on the hard courts despite some decent numbers in 2018.

There is no doubting the quality Goffin brings to the court and he will be a big favourite to win any rally in this match that develops to more than five hits. The serve has perhaps been a little more vulnerable in the last couple of weeks than Goffin would have liked and that has to be a concern when going up against someone like Anderson who will feel he can take some free shots on the return if his own serve is working well.

Much of the outcome of this match will depend if Goffin can bring his strong returning numbers into this one. I am not that convinced it will be the case having really struggled against the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Washington and Milos Raonic in Toronto. Kevin Anderson is a superior server to both of those players at the moment and I think the South African will be able to exert some scoreboard pressure to win this match and crack the David Goffin serve to cover this number.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: After dropping the first set against Adrian Mannarino Novak Djokovic was able to get back on track with two dominant sets to move through to the Third Round. There was some concern about a stomach illness that Djokovic was suffering through but he will have some time to prepare for this match while any rain could be a blessing in disguise for the former World Number 1.

Having an extra day of rest would be huge for Djokovic but it perhaps is even more of an issue for Grigor Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian has a poor record against Novak Djokovic and he was beaten very easily by Djokovic on the grass courts of Queens Club back in June. His best opportunity to turn around a poor run of losses to Djokovic may be facing a potentially ill opponent but that says a lot about where Dimitrov stands as far as I am concerned.

2018 has been a relatively poor season for Dimitrov considering he came into this year off winning the ATP Finals. It has not been a bad year on the hard courts in terms of the wins he has generated, but Dimitrov has really struggled on the return side of things which is going to make it tough to beat some of the best players on the Tour.

Those numbers have been really poor when it comes to playing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and on all surfaces in 2018. Dimitrov may have struggled on the return even more than in general, but the bigger concern has to be how far his own serve numbers drop off and Djokovic is certainly good enough to take advantage of that.

You can't ignore the fact that Djokovic's numbers have declined in each of the last four years on the hard courts from 2015 to 2018. His service numbers in whole are down while he is breaking less in each year, although I do like the fact he has won a higher percentage of return points compared with 2017 which suggests the break percentage is due to improve.

The illness is a slight concern, but Djokovic could have plenty of time to get ready for this match and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to get the better of this opponent again and cover what looks a big number on first glance.


Lesia Tsurenko v Ekaterina Makarova: One of the main concerns about Lesia Tsurenko is the health side of things as she has had her problems in 2018. She had to retire from a match in Montreal just last week, but that hasn't stopped Tsurenko from winning back to back matches in Cincinnati and against some quality opponents too.

If she can stay healthy Tsurenko is certainly capable of having a very good run on the hard courts through the remainder of 2018 and her numbers have been decent enough this season. The wins over Danielle Collins and Garbine Muguruza are very impressive, while Tsurenko was able to get the better of Ekaterina Makarova when they last met on the Tour.

The Russian knows all about injury problems having been plagued with them over the last couple of years. Makarova has a poor 8-9 record on the hard courts in 2018 and that has been improved by her two wins here in Cincinnati, while her second serve has been one that Tsurenko will look to attack.

Tsurenko has been much better than that on the hard courts too with an 18-9 record in 2018 and it is her return game which has really impressed. While both players will feel they are comfortable on the hard courts, the numbers stack up slightly more favourably for Tsurenko which makes it hard to see her as the underdog in this one barring an injury flaring up again.

Her numbers have been superior to Makarova's on the hard courts and I will back Tsurenko to work her way through to the Quarter Final.


Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: So many people have tipped up Caroline Garcia for some big things on the WTA Tour but she seems to have hit something of a wall in her move up the World Rankings. All credit has to be given to any player who has reached the top ten of the World Rankings so you can't take that away from the Frenchwoman, but Garcia has to show that she is now capable of winning the very biggest of events on the Tour.

One Quarter Final at Grand Slam level is not really good enough for a player of Garcia's ability, but she looks like she could be entering the US Open with some good form behind her. Last week she reached the Quarter Final in Montreal and a strong win over Victoria Azarenka means Garcia is playing for a second Quarter Final spot in consecutive weeks on Thursday.

I don't think you can ignore that there is room for improvement from Garcia to take the next positive step in her career. Her return game on the hard courts have not reached the level of some of the very best players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on Garcia to serve at a very high level to remain competitive in those matches.

The serve has been a decent weapon for Garcia, but this is a tough match for her against the improving Aryna Sabalenka. This is the second good week in a row for Sabalenka at the very high Premier Event level and the wins over Johanna Konta and Karolina Pliskova shows this player is operating at a very good level.

It makes her very dangerous for Garcia especially when you think Sabalenka has been serving effectively on the hard courts and against a returner like Garcia it should be a big weapon for her. However Sabalenka has had two tough matches here and I do wonder if fatigue could be an issue for her against a strong server like Garcia.

That is one of the main reasons I am opposing Sabalenka here having needed three sets to beat two tough opponents. She will need to dig deep in this one too and Garcia has tended to perform at a higher level when she has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 20.

Garcia's numbers are improved across the board in those matches and I think she can win this match in three sets which should still give her a chance to cover the number.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: You would imagine the hard courts would give Madison Keys a real edge in her matches with Angelique Kerber, but this has proven to be a very tough match up for the American. It is Kerber who has won seven of the eight previous matches between these players and the German has won all six matches they have played on the hard courts including at the Australian Open in January.

The Kerber numbers on the hard courts have also been superior to Madison Keys and the only concern for the Wimbledon Champion is the long Second Round match she had against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The conditions in Cincinnati may be a positive for Keys if she can get her big first serve working and then follow that up with big groundstrokes before Kerber can set up in her defensive stance. That's some pressure though and Keys could quickly lose hope in what has been a poor match up for her.

It is the Kerber return game which gives her a significant edge in this match and I do think she will be a little too good for Keys. This is a big number to cover when you consider the long match played by Kerber on Wednesday as well as the quicker hard court in Cincinnati, but the German has not dropped a set against Keys in the last four matches between them and would have covered this number each time.

I will back her to do the same here although this is a match that could be held over until Friday.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The last couple of weeks have seen Elise Mertens produce some strong hard court results for the first time since very early in 2018 when she reached the Australian Open Semi Final. However I do think Mertens has ridden her luck at times in matches and she is going to have to be a lot better if she wants to beat a player of the quality of Sloane Stephens.

The American looks to be rounding into very strong form for the US Open and she has been blowing away opponents over the last ten days.

When Stephens gets into this kind of roll she can be very tough to stop and it took all of the skill of the current World Number 1 Simona Halep to beat Stephens in the Montreal Final on Sunday. That hasn't dented the confidence of Stephens who was a dominant Second Round winner in Cincinnati and she has the overall game to control this match with Mertens.

Defensively Stephens can match the consistency of Mertens from the back of the court, but I think the American gets a little more out of her serve and that is key here. Both players will have a lot of success on the return of serve with the way they play, but having a few more opportunities to get out of tough games will give Stephens the edge to win this match.

This is another match that may need to be held over, but I like Stephens to win the match with her superior hard court play and I will back to cover too.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 6-4, + 4.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 22.80% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (August 15-17)

After what has felt a long wait to bring back Premier League Football, fans all over the country had to be excited about the potential of the season ahead after seeing some of the football played on the opening weekend.

Only Chelsea disappointed out of the leading contenders for the Premier League title, while there is a renewed optimism about being a Manchester United going into the season which will only have increased after the impressive dismantling of West Ham United.

I wrote a short piece about Manchester United and the new season before the weekend and that can be read here.


About the only thing that bothers me about the beginning of the season is the awfully early international break which comes at the end of this month which means a break between Sunday 27th August and Saturday 9th September. Before that we will see the draw for the Champions League/Europa League Group Stage and also the Third Round of the League Cup in England which means the fixture list begins to be filled up going through to the Christmas period.

At least in England we get three rounds of top flight football before the international break, which is far better than Germany, Italy and Spain whose top Divisions begin this weekend and only have the two rounds of games.


It was a mixed bag of results from the weekend football which produced a slight profit, although August has yet to really get going. This midweek we have the First Legs of the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties to be played before we go into the weekend and more Premier League and top flight football.

In this thread I will have picks from the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties which are played from Tuesday through Thursday night.


Hoffenheim v Liverpool Pick: Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is where the financial reward of this competition is really met and next season finishing 4th in the Premier League or Bundesliga will mean direct entry into the Group. That doesn't help either Hoffenheim or Liverpool going into the 2017/18 Champions League as they have to negotiate this Play Off Round if they want to get into the Group Stage which begins next month.

The two Legs over the next week are vital for both clubs although the pressure is likely to be on Liverpool with the past European history they hold. For Hoffenheim this is a maiden European adventure and they will be hoping to build on what was a stunning Bundesliga campaign.

The home Leg is likely to be critical for Hoffenheim having been unbeaten here in the League last season and beating the likes of Bayern Munich in the process. Losing a couple of key players in Niklas Sule and Sebastian Rudy is going to be difficult for Hoffenheim to replace and they are facing someone who will be familiar in their style when Jurgen Klopp brings Liverpool to town.

It is an important First Leg for Liverpool too who have not been at their best in recent away European ties. Things have been much different at Anfield and Liverpool have to come here looking for at least an away goal and making sure they have a slight edge when returning home next week.

It would be a surprise if Liverpool are not able to create chances with the pace they have in the final third and the likely space they are going to see in the away Leg. Liverpool should have a chance to play counter attacking football, although there will be a concern with how they have defended at Vicarage Road on Saturday.

Goals look to be the outcome of this one and I would be a little surprised if there aren't at least three shared out by these two teams. I considered backing Hoffenheim with the start on the Asian Handicap, but the loss of Sule and Rudy means I am less sure about them. However they will have to attack at home and will likely create chances against a Liverpool defence that still needs some work, while the Liverpool pace in the final third is a threat to any club they face.

The layers are of the same mind, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this First Leg.


Sporting Lisbon v Steaua Bucharest Pick: After some of the recent defeats Steaua Bucharest have had at this stage of the Champions League, you can understand why Sporting Lisbon are considered such strong favourites to win this Play Off Round tie. Being at home in the First Leg gives Sporting Lisbon the chance to put themselves in a strong position ahead of the trip to Romania next week, but Steaua Bucharest will think their recent experiences in the Qualifiers can help them achieve the upset.

It is asking a lot from Steaua Bucharest, but they have shown some attacking intent when playing away from home in Europe. Earning an away goal here will give Steaua Bucharest a chance in the Second Leg, but the majority of the play is going to come from Sporting Lisbon.

Anything other than a Sporting Lisbon win will be a real surprise, but the Asian Handicap might be a tough one for them to cover. Sporting Lisbon have had 1 clean sheet from their last 8 home European ties although the majority of those games have come against teams that were considered stronger than Steaua Bucharest.

Even with that in mind, Sporting Lisbon may offer Steaua Bucharest some chances in this one, although the home team should have enough in the final third to score the goals to win this one. This is a team that has scored plenty of goals in home European ties against teams outside of the European elite in recent years and I am looking for this Champions League Play Off tie to also produce at least three goals on the night.

Both teams scoring is not of the question in this one, but there is always the possibility that Sporting Lisbon dominate the tie completely and overall it feels like a fixture that will produce at least three goals.


Celtic v Astana Pick: There will be familiarity with this Play Off Round tie in the Champions League having paired Celtic and Astana together twelve months ago in the Third Qualifying Round. On that occasion the Second Leg was played here at Celtic Park, but this time around the teams will meet in Kazakhstan in the Second Leg which does change some of the dynamics of the tie.

It is a big tie for both Celtic and Astana having dominated their domestic League and knowing the financial rewards that come with a place in the Champions League Group Stage. That increases the pressure on both teams and I imagine this is going to be a tight tie over the next two weeks with both Celtic and Astana confident in their chances to progress.

The injuries in the Celtic team have to be a concern when you think how close this tie was twelve months ago. It took an injury time penalty for Celtic to come through 3-2 on aggregate although the players may come in with more confidence than they did back then having played so well in the last twelve months.

Celtic have been very good in home Qualifiers having won 7 in a row before the home draw with Rosenborg in the Third Qualifying Round. They didn't play well in that game, but Celtic have Leigh Griffiths back in contention which should give them better balance going forward.

You have to respect Astana who are going to be playing in the Group Stage of a European competition for the third season in a row which is unprecedented for a side from Kazakhstan. Everything for them depends on the First Leg as they have lost 5 of their last 7 away European ties but at the same time have won 3 of 7 at home against those same teams.

Keeping it tight may be the play for Astana and I imagine they will be looking to frustrate Celtic. They should have some chances considering the injuries Celtic have at the heart of their defence, but I do think Celtic will have the majority of the play on the day and have shown they can pick up some real momentum when playing at home.

It may be a risk when you think how close it was when they played last season, but this time I am looking for Celtic to have enough to win by a couple of goals to put themselves in a strong position ahead of next week. I will back the Scottish Champions to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Maribor Pick: This is a huge Play Off Round tie for both Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Maribor with the carrot of entering the Champions League Group Stage in front of them. Both teams will be going into a section with some huge names from European Football and the chance to host those names will only increase the pressure on the teams in the two ties to be played over the next seven days.

The home Leg is likely to be very important for both teams and I do give Hapoel Be'er Sheva the edge in the First Leg. They have won all 5 home Champions League Qualifiers played over the last thirteen months and the experience of reaching the Europa League Knock Out Round last season will surely help.

By the same token Hapoel Be'er Sheva have not been very good when playing away from home and so they have to have a lead to take to Maribor next week. Maribor have to be given their dues having won both away Champions League Qualifiers this season but they had lost 4 of 7 away European ties prior to this campaign.

The heavy losses at Astana and Qabala have to be a concern though and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have shown they are capable of winning home ties with some comfort. Both Celtic and Ludogorets Razgrad are experienced European teams who have lost by a couple of goals here over the last twelve months and I do think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will win this one.

Backing them to find a way to win by a couple of goals on the day at odds against looks the way to go. Maribor's last 4 away European losses have come by at least two goals each time and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will have the majority of the play in this First Leg and create the majority of chances.

Maribor will be looking to be in the tie when the Second Leg is played at their own home next week, but I will look for Hapoel Be'er Sheva to take a big step towards a first appearance in the Champions League Group Stage.


Napoli v Nice Pick: Both Napoli and Nice would have been hoping for an 'easier' Play Off Round tie in the Champions League than the one they have been handed. It is the Italian side who will go into the tie as the favourites to reach the Group Stage, but Nice showed last season that they are able to keep up with the likes of Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain domestically.

However they have made a relatively poor start to the 2017/18 season with no wins from their first 4 games in all competitions and needing a late equaliser in Amsterdam to get the better of Ajax. Back to back defeats to open the League campaign will have dented confidence, although Nice have to hope they can catch Napoli cold in their first game of the new campaign.

That may be a big ask considering how Napoli have kept their squad together this season compared with the last summer transfer window. A squad that knows exactly what is required of them could go very far in Serie A this season and Napoli are filled with goals which will make them dangerous to teams in the Champions League.

Better defensive performances are still required from Napoli if they are going to compete with the very best clubs, but this is a team who will be very good this year. Being at home in the First Leg should give Napoli enough of an advantage to build a lead in this tie before heading to the south of France next week.

With the goals they have in the squad and Nice's early season struggles, I think Nice will be looking to stay in the tie for as long as possible. However they were beaten comfortably in Schalke and Krasnodar away from home last season and I think Napoli will prove too good on the day.

It is a risk backing a team to win with a margin when playing their first game of the season, but I think Napoli have enough goals to have a healthy lead before the Second Leg and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Milan v Shkendija Pick: When I was growing up, the standard setters for the top European clubs came from Italy and the leading team were Milan who won five of their seven European Cups between 1989 and 2007. It is quite strange to see Milan in the Europa League rather than the Champions League and even stranger to think they have not played in Europe at all over the last four years.

Things look to have changed for Milan with new investment in the club which has seen them sign some quality players and be linked with a number more before this transfer window closes. They have improved their League position three years in a row in Italy but it still may take some time to really see Milan restore their name alongside the very best in European Football.

Getting into the Champions League is the goal for the season for Milan, but they won't want to drop the Europa League at this stage of the campaign. Milan were comfortable winners in the Third Qualifying Round and they are big favourites to beat Shkendija in the Play Off Round for a place in the Europa League Group Stage.

Shkendija have won three Qualifying ties in a row for the second season in a row having previously lost all four Qualifying ties in European competition. The step up in class in this Play Off Round is going to be tough to bridge for Shkendija and I think Milan are likely going to win comfortably with a few more of their bigger signings likely to earn a start ahead of the Serie A season beginning.

Covering the Asian Handicap is likely to happen for Milan, but I think the key will be to ensure they don't offer up an away goal and backing the Italian giants to win with a clean sheet is the call.


Ajax v Rosenborg Pick: Both Ajax and Rosenborg will have been hugely disappointed to go out of the Champions League in the Third Qualifying Round but have a chance to make it into the Europa League Group Stage.

Ajax reached the Europa League Final last season so will be hoping for another deep run in the tournament, although they have lost some key players from that squad that reached Stockholm. Home form is going to be critical for Ajax who won all 7 home Europa League games last season, but whose 2-2 draw at the Amsterdam Arena against Nice meant they were beaten on away goals in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round.

There will be confidence in the Ajax ranks that they can win this First Leg at home, especially when you think how difficult things have been for Rosenborg in recent away European ties. Rosenborg were unbeaten in draws at Dundalk and Celtic in the Champions League this season, but previously they had lost 5 away games in a row and that has to be a concern.

You can understand why Ajax are such strong favourites in the First Leg, but this is a team that is going to be missing Davinson Sanchez and may be a little vulnerable defensively. However Ajax will also believe they have the attacking talent to take the game to Rosenborg and this could be one of the higher scoring games in the First Legs of the Europa League Play Off Round.

I do think Rosenborg can play their part too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by the teams on Thursday.


Osijek v Austria Vienna Pick: You have to imagine both Osijek and Austria Vienna are looking at this tie as a good one in their bid to get into the Europa League Group Stage. Anything other than a close one that is decided next week in Vienna would be a real surprise.

The home Leg is going to be important for both teams and I do think Osijek can force a narrow advantage even if they have to work hard to get it. Playing at home has been important for them so far in the Europa League with 3 straight wins here, including one over PSV Eindhoven, but Osijek may have to raise their game again to get the better of Austria Vienna.

I have to respect the fact that Austria Vienna have won 5 of their last 7 away European ties over the last fourteen months which includes in all 4 Qualifying ties they have played in that time. They have even overcome poor home Legs in that time by winning in Spartak Trnava and AEL Limassol after failing to do that in the home First Leg, while last season 4 of their 5 Group Stage points came on their travels.

That makes Austria Vienna a dangerous team to face for Osijek who are not blessed with a lot of European experience. However the wins over PSV Eindhoven both home and away shows a team that is confident in their own chances and I think Osijek can continue the fine form they have been displaying at the start of the 2017/18 season.

It won't come easy, but Osijek to hold a narrow lead when travelling to the Austrian capital next week is my pick.


Partizan Belgrade v Videoton Pick: It can be difficult for teams to accept that they are not able to match others in Europe despite being one of the best in their domestic League. That is what Partizan Belgrade have had to face in the Champions League, but the Serbia Champions will be favoured to get past Videoton in this Play Off Round Qualifier.

The First Leg in Belgrade is going to be very important for Partizan Belgrade and they did have a long winning run at home snapped in the Champions League by Olympiacos. However the bigger worry may have been the League defeat here by Vozdovac, while they are facing a Videoton team who have gotten the better of Bordeaux in the Europa League already.

Videoton have been one of the better teams in Hungary in recent seasons but they have not worked their way through the Qualifiers to get into the Europa League Group Stage for some time. The win over Bordeaux will give them confidence and the key for Videoton is to still be in the tie when heading back home for the Second Leg next week.

They should be able to do that, although I do think they may be faced with a narrow deficit after the First Leg. Partizan Belgrade tend to play their best football at home and I will be looking for them to find enough in the final third to have a lead in the Second Leg, although Videoton may eventually show a little more to go through to the Group Stage.


Everton v Hajduk Split Pick: At this stage of the season this is far from an easy tie for Everton despite being big favourites to see of Hajduk Split. The new arrivals will take time to gel into a team and Ronald Koeman has previous in failing to get into the Europa League Group Stage when falling short with Southampton.

However Everton are facing a team in Hajduk Split who have found the Play Off Round a little too good for them in each of the last three seasons. They have won plenty of Qualifiers in that time, but dropping out in this Round shows there may be a ceiling as to how strong Hajduk Split can be.

I do think they can make life difficult for an Everton team who have yet to find the fluency they would have liked in the final third. However Everton have also looked decent in defensive positions and will be looking for a fourth straight clean sheet to open the season which will put them in a strong position for the Second Leg in Croatia next week.

Ideally Everton would win this by a couple of goals, but Koeman is still looking to bring in reinforcements in the final third which can make up for the loss of Romelu Lukaku.

Instead Koeman may take a pragmatic approach to the First Leg and ensure Everton at least have a clean sheet which would put them in a strong position for the Second Leg. Having a narrow lead will mean Everton improve their position too and I think that is what they will ultimately have to settle for so I will back Everton to win this one with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: Hoffenheim-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon-Steaua Bucharest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ajax-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Osijek @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Partizan Belgrade @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

August 2017/18 Update: 8-10-1, - 0.72 Units (25 Units Staked, - 2.88% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 16-18)

After the first three picks of the 2016/17 season fell short of the mark, I was wondering if I was about to suffer the beginning of another awful August to continue the trend of recent seasons.

However the last three picks bounced back to close those losses and now we move onto a loaded midweek schedule filled with Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round First Legs as well as the third round of games in the lower Leagues in England.

This weekend will see the opening of the Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A as the new season really start picking up steam, although that momentum is snapped early in September when the World Cup Qualifiers means there is a two week break from August 28th until September 10th.

You might have noticed the new 'Featured Post' I have set up on the blog's main page which will prevent some of these picks falling too far down once the tennis picks are being played on a daily basis. I will mainly use the 'Featured Post' to feature the Weekend Football Picks as well as the College Football and NFL Picks which will be made from the beginning of September as those threads usually cover a few days and can easily slip down the page.


It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Celtic who are trying to earn a place in the Champions League Group Stage, while West Ham United have a chance of earning revenge against Astra who knocked them out of the Europa League last season.

I would also guess Rafa Benitez is facing a big week at Newcastle United who have made a poor start to life in the Championship and then we will move onto the Premier League games which will begin on Friday this week for the first time this season.

Hopefully the picks can move forward effectively after the last three came in as winners and get this August off to an unusually good start.


Ajax v Rostov Pick: The Champions League Play Off Round will be played over the next nine days as teams bid to get into the Group Stage alongside some of the biggest names in European football. Both Ajax and Rostov have to be happy with the draw that will see them play each other twice for one of those places and we could see two competitive matches between them.

The layers are less sure with Ajax coming into the First Leg as a healthy favourite to take an advantage to Russia next week. They do look short when you consider the last 4 home European games have seen Ajax draw with Celtic, Fenerbahce, Molde and PAOK in the last Round, while Ajax were also beaten 2-3 by Rapid Vienna in the Third Qualifying Round of the Champions League last season.

Ajax certainly have the edge in terms of European experience and they have played in the Champions League Group Stage just two seasons ago, while Rostov are only in one of the big two European competitions for the second time in their history. However their 0-2 win at Anderlecht in the Third Qualifying Round Second Leg was a huge result for Rostov and they have continued to perform effectively despite some financial issues they have been suffering over the last twelve months.

You have to think Rostov will look to be tough to beat and catch Ajax on the counter attack to give themselves a chance in the Second Leg next week at home. They should be able to make life difficult for Ajax who have struggled under the weight of expectation at home in recent European games and that might be the case on Tuesday as the fans will expect them to win this one.

Rostov showed in Zenit St Petersburg that they are capable and scoring twice there and in Anderlecht makes them a dangerous opponent. Ajax have won just 5 of their last 12 home games in the Champions League and only 2 of those have come by more than a single goal margin and I think backing Rostov on the Asian Handicap could be the play this week.

Even a one goal defeat for Rostov would return half of the stakes and Ajax's run of games without a win at home in European competition can't be ignored, while they have also drawn 4 of their last 6 home games in all competitions.


Steaua Bucharest v Manchester City Pick: There were many other potential opponents in the Champions League Play Off that might have given Manchester City a real problem over two Legs, but they will be happy they have been set up with Steaua Bucharest. The Romanian side have been talking up their chances of earning the upset after a really positive start to the new season, and they might have half a chance if Manchester City are still trying to find their feet under Pep Guardiola's guidance.

The win over Sunderland was not Manchester City at their best while the full backs are being asked to fulfil different roles when the team have the ball as they are almost making it five players across the centre of midfield. Overloading those areas is fair enough but Guardiola was asking Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna to play a lot of creative passes which is clearly not their strength.

I can imagine his tactics will take some time getting used to, but Manchester City can't afford to start too slowly with this Play Off tie huge for them. Going out of the Champions League before the Group Stage would be a massive blow, but you have to think there is too much quality in the squad to actually fall to an upset over two Legs.

The first game in Romania will be tough as Steaua Bucharest are in fine form and beat Sparta Prague 2-0 here in the last Round, an impressive result when thinking Sparta Prague reached the Quarter Final of the Europa League in April. However Steaua Bucharest did not play that well here last season when faced with the increased quality in Europe compared with their domestic League and the side lost to both Trencin and Rosenborg while drawing with Partizan Belgrade in front of their own fans.

None of those three teams would be favourites to beat Manchester City and I do think the English team can show the extra quality they have to wear down Steaua Bucharest. The home team can't afford to play things too tight as they will want to have a lead to take to The Etihad Stadium next week and I think Manchester City will be able to pick them off.

Manchester City might not have the best away record in the Champions League, but they have mainly come against teams that are superior to Steaua Bucharest. In the last three seasons Manchester City have won half of their 14 away games in the Champions League and 4 of those wins have come by more than one goal. They have won 0-3 at Viktoria Plzen, 1-2 at CSKA Moscow and 1-3 at Dynamo Kiev in that time and I will back Manchester City to record a comfortable win in Romania to put one foot into the Group Stage.


Aston Villa v Huddersfield Town Pick: The scoreboard might have suggested Aston Villa had an 'easy' afternoon on Saturday when beating Rotherham United 3-0, but there were some real scares for them in that match especially when only leading 1-0.

It is a big win to boost the confidence, but their visitors will also be heading into this match with plenty of belief as Huddersfield Town secured a very impressive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last time out.

That follows a 2-1 League win over Brentford and all three Huddersfield Town matches so far in the new season have provided at least three goals shared out. While they have looked good going forward, defensively Huddersfield Town can be vulnerable and Aston Villa have shown they can take advantage of any chances that they do create.

This match has all the makings of being a 2-1 scoreline either way as both teams have shown attacking threats mixed with some defensive problems. At odds against, backing at least three goals shared out looks the call.


Leeds United v Fulham Pick: With an owner that has been as trigger happy on the sacking button as Massimo Cellino has been since taking over at Leeds United, Garry Monk has to be feeling the pressure after back to back League losses. Now they have to take on surprise package Fulham at Elland Road where the big crowd comes with plenty of expectations every week which seems to cripple the team from expressing themselves.

I am not sure where I stand on Fulham who have surprised me twice already this season with unexpected wins, but they are not as big outsiders in this one as they have been in their first two League wins.

That will change the mindset and I will be keeping an eye on where Fulham go after this game, but I do think they can contribute to a decent spectacle for the fans on Tuesday.

Leeds United have looked poor defensively, but will be expected to attack at home which should see chances created at both ends. Fulham had 15 of 23 away games see three goals shared out last season and they have already opened with two more in the last week and I think the odds against quotes have to be backed for at least three goals scored in this match.


Norwich City v Bristol City Pick: I am not sure why the Norwich City fans seemed so willing to get on the backs of their players after the goalless draw with Sheffield Wednesday, but Alex Neil showed enough resolve as manager last season to not be overly concerned about that reaction from the supporters.

That game on Saturday was between two teams who will likely challenge for promotion to the Premier League, but Norwich City should have a better chance of recording a win when facing Bristol City. The Robins have made a brilliant start to the new season, but may have benefited from what looks a decent set of fixtures on paper.

Now they are in for a much tougher match than the likes of Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion, two promoted teams from League One, and Bristol City struggled when visiting the best teams in the Championship last season. While they will be more confident having won all 3 games played so far this season, it might be tough to bridge the gap between themselves and a relegated team from the Premier League and I think Norwich City will earn the win to send the fans home happier than they were on Saturday.


Celtic v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: The Champions League is clearly the priority for Celtic at this stage of the season and failing to get to the Group Stage for a third consecutive season would be a big blow to Brendan Rodgers and the club. The last couple of years have seen Celtic lose to Maribor and Malmo in the Play Off Round of the competition after negotiating the earlier Qualifying Rounds, but arguably Hapoel Be'er Sheva are the weakest of the trio they have faced.

Some may even argue that the tie against Astana in the Third Qualifying Round was the more difficult one, but that means increased expectation on the Celtic players. Having the home game first will increase the pressure too as Celtic will feel they need some sort of lead to take to Israel next week, although they can't afford to underestimate Hapoel Be'er Sheva.

The Israeli Champions have shown they can dig in and battle for a result in their goalless draws at Sheriff Tiraspol and Olympiacos in the Champions League already. Like Celtic, Hapoel Be'er Sheva could easily suggest their Third Qualifying Round opponent, Olympiacos, is tougher than the one they see in the Play Off Round, but there is less experience in the Israeli squad compared with Celtic.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva have had two upset wins to get into this Play Off Round, but I can't shift their losses to RNK Split and Thun from my mind and feel they might have overachieved already. They lost the away Leg in both of those Europa League Second Qualifying Round ties and I do think Celtic will have enough quality to find a way to earn a narrow win in this one.

The tie should be far from over for when they recommence battle next week in the Second Leg, but I do expect Celtic to begin that Leg with some sort of lead to defend.


Dundalk v Legia Warsaw Pick: It has been a special run which has taken Dundalk through to the Champions League Play Off Round and the 3-0 win over BATE Borisov in the Third Qualifying Round has to be one of their biggest wins in their history. Beating Legia Warsaw would surpass that and put Dundalk alongside some of the biggest names in European football, and the players have admitted they are going into the match without an 'inferiority complex' weighing them down.

There is a lot to admire about the run Dundalk have had, but I can't help feel they have perhaps been overrated a little in this First Leg. They haven't lost any of their last 3 home games, but Dundalk did have to settle for a 1-1 draw with FH from Iceland and they were comfortably seen off by Hajduk Split in Ireland just a couple of years ago.

Home advantage might not be as strong as normal either with the game being played at the Aviva Stadium due to the demand for tickets. Plenty in the crowd will be there to see Legia Warsaw too and the Polish Champions have come through tougher tests already in the Champions League to make it to the Play Off Round.

Only two years ago Legia Warsaw came to Dublin and beat Irish Champions St Patrick's Athletic 0-5 and while I can't see it being that easy this week, I do think the away side are considerably stronger.

Unlike BATE Borisov, Legia Warsaw have a decent away record in European competition and have won at St Patrick's Athletic and Celtic in recent years. I expect they can make their quality count in this one and the odds against quotes are tempting enough to see Legia Warsaw have any kind of advantage heading to Poland next week.


Porto v Roma Pick: This is arguably the best Play Off Round tie and there isn't a lot to separate Porto and Roma as both teams are desperate to make the Champions League Group Stage. The home advantage and the fact their season has already begun might favour Porto, but Roma aren't far behind when it comes to their fitness as their own domestic campaign begins this weekend.

However Roma haven't always been the best travelling team in Europe and so the key for them might be to head to Portugal and look to grab an away goal even in a narrow defeat to take back to the Italian capital. That would still make Roma favourites to progress, but I really don't think there will be much between the teams over both Legs.

The Porto home form isn't as strong as some of the previous teams have produced and they did end last season with 2 losses from their final 5 games here. While they did beat Chelsea in the Champions League at home, Porto lost their last 2 European home games against Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund, but they had won 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League before the loss to Dynamo Kiev.

On the other hand, Roma are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League Second Round and they did lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League last season. Two of those came against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it is the defeat at BATE Borisov that was the stand out result for Roma.

Goals weren't a problem in Roma away games last season and they will likely push for an away goal or two in this one. The onus is on Porto to attack too as they look to get a lead to protect for the Second Leg and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in what are normally tight First Leg affairs.


Villarreal v Monaco Pick: Antonio Cordon is the big link between Villarreal and Monaco as he has moved from the former to the latter in the summer. Cordon has been considered a key part of the Villarreal recruitment policy in recent years which has rejuvenated this club and he is expected to do the same for Monaco who are someway of the pace set by Paris Saint-Germain in France.

However it will be events on the pitch that will determine which of these teams makes it through the Play Off Round and into the Champions League Group Stage. Both Villarreal and Monaco might have hoped to avoid one another in this Round and I can see this being a close contest over two Legs.

In both cases I think the home advantage is going to be of real importance and Monaco showed those vulnerabilities on their travels that Villarreal will be looking to exploit. Monaco have not won any of their last 5 away European games and have lost 3 of those including a defeat in Spain to Valencia in the Play Off Round last season.

On the other hand Villarreal have won 7 in a row at home in European competition and have won 11 of their last 13 here. They will be looking to get on the front foot and give themselves some sort of advantage to take into the Second Leg next week and I do think Villarreal can win the First Leg.

Radamel Falcao has scored in the last two Champions League games for Monaco but could potentially be missing for this First Leg which will give Villarreal a boost in confidence. Even though the home team have made some changes to the starting eleven with their transfer dealings over the summer, I think Villarreal can continue their fine home European form and give themselves a narrow advantage to take to Monaco next week for the Second Leg.


Cardiff City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers have made poor starts to the new season but they will both be heading into this fixture feeling they have a good chance to turn around their immediate fortunes.

The edge has to be given to Cardiff City who are hosting this match and who had played well at home for much of last season. Their 0-2 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday was a surprising loss and Cardiff City have yet to score in 3 games in all competitions this season, but they are facing a porous Blackburn Rovers defence in this one.

Owen Coyle must already be under pressure as Blackburn Rovers manager thanks to seven goals conceded in a couple of League games, but I don't want to rule a line through this team in this match. They did struggle when facing the best teams in the Division away from home last season, and I do think this is going to be a difficult season for Blackburn Rovers, but the lack of goals in the Cardiff City squad to open the season is a concern when backing the home team.

However the odds against quotes for Cardiff City are tempting enough as they should remain tough to play in Wales and I will back them to win this one.


Newcastle United v Reading Pick: Having expected Newcastle United to win in each of the first two games of the League season, it was unexpected that I have been wrong both times as they have surprisingly lost to both Fulham and Huddersfield Town. That makes this game a huge one for Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez especially as The Toon Army could be right on the brink of revolt if they see their side lose another League game already.

Last time in the Championship Newcastle United only lost 4 games all season so falling to a third defeat before the end of the first month would be a huge blow to The Magpies.

Facing Reading means a meeting with another club that are expected to be in the bottom half of the League table, but Newcastle United can't underestimate them after falling to Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Reading have at least won a game already this season in the League, but their away record over the last twelve months in the Championship has been disappointing.

I might be a little foolish in backing Newcastle United this week, but they look a decent price to get back on the horse against a team that lost 14 of 23 away games last season and already went down 2-0 at Wolves this past weekend. Failure in this one could easily cost Rafa Benitez his job, but I expect the Spaniard to get it right and help Newcastle United to the three points and ease the pressure on himself.


Astana v BATE Borisov Pick: Both Astana and BATE Borisov have to get over the disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage having both been playing in that part of the competition last season. Both would have felt they should have beaten Celtic and Dundalk respectively, but the winner of this tie could still face some major European names with the likes of Manchester United and Inter Milan in the Groups of the Europa League.

Home advantage is likely to be key for both clubs over the next week and I think Astana can give themselves an advantage to take to Belarus in the Second Leg.

Astana are unbeaten in 8 home European games and they did win 3 Qualifiers here last season in the Champions League and they did hold the likes of Atletico Madrid and Benfica here. If they had taken their chances Astana would have added Celtic to the list of teams they have beaten here over the last twelve months and they will be hard to stop in front of their own fans.

On the other hand BATE Borisov have failed to win any of their last 18 away European games and have lost 12 of those games. Defeats in Debrecen, Partizan Belgrade and Dundalk suggests there is some sort of mental block for BATE Borisov outside of Belarus that they have to resolve and this is a tough place to do that.

This will be a tight tie over two Legs and there isn't a lot between them, but I think Astana can make home advantage count to give them a narrow lead for the Second Leg.


Austria Vienna v Rosenborg Pick: If this Europa League Play Off Round tie is anything like when Austria Vienna met Rosenborg in the 1993/94 Champions League then the neutrals are in for a treat.

Both of those games were high-scoring, attacking and dramatic matches but both Austria Vienna and Rosenborg are much changed teams now.

Austria Vienna are back in European competition after a couple of years of missing out but they have struggled at home, while Rosenborg might feel they should still be trying to get into the Champions League Group Stage after going out thanks to three injury time goals to APOEL in the Third Qualifying Round.

The Rosenborg away games in recent European games have tended to be high-scoring as they have shown they can score goals, but also seem to be vulnerable defensively. They had also conceded three times in 3 away games in a row before beating Viking 0-2 last time out, while Austria Vienna's home games have produced nine goals in the last couple of games.

I do think both teams will give this First Leg a go and I am looking for goals to be shared out by the two sides. A gut feeling says Rosenborg snap their recent run of 4 consecutive away defeats in Europe to give themselves a platform to move into the Europa League Group Stage, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet in this one either.


Astra v West Ham United Pick: There looks to be a clear shift in how Slaven Bilic views the Europa League this season compared with the attitude last season and so a stronger West Ham United team are expected to take on Astra this time around. Last season a much changed team took the lead in Romania but were eventually beaten 2-1 and a stronger starting line up is expected in this one.

However West Ham United have not been at their best away from home in recent games compared with how well they began last season in the Premier League. The defeat at Chelsea saw a flat performance from The Hammers, but they are not expected to make wholesale changes as they did when they visited Astra last season.

It also has to be said that Astra's recent form is not the most impressive and they have already been disappointed with an early Champions League exit. However they have saved their best performances in European competition for their home games and Astra are unbeaten in 6 home games in Europe which makes odds on quotes for a West Ham United win look short enough.

Add in the fact that West Ham United have lost their last 3 away games in Europe as well as their last 3 away games overall and you have to have the feeling that Slaven Bilic would take a draw to finish the job at home next week. Last season only a James Collins sending off turned the home tie with West Ham United 2-0 up and they will believe they can win at home as long as they don't have a big deficit to overcome.

I do expect a strong West Ham United team to take to the field in this one. Even with that in mind, I think they look short in a match they would be happy to take a draw and I am happy to back Astra on the Asian Handicap where a one goal loss would return half the stakes.


Trencin v Rapid Vienna Pick: The poor home form in European football has cost Trencin their place in the Group Stage of either the Champions League or Europa League in recent seasons. Trencin have had some good results too, but winning over two Legs is a tough proposition, while the side have made a poor start to the new season both domestically and in Europe.

While they are dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League, Rapid Vienna are still the favourites to come through this tie over two Legs. In fact the Austrian side are favourites to win the First Leg and I think they can be backed at odds against.

Rapid Vienna won away games at Ajax, Viktoria Plzen and Dinamo Minsk last season and also drew with Shakhtar Donetsk which shows they are more than capable of matching the wins Legia Warsaw, NK Olimpija and Steaua Bucharest have recorded here over the last twelve months.

The 1-4 win at Austria Vienna would only have improved the confidence for Rapid Vienna while Trencin have had a poor start at home this season with 3 losses in 4 games. At odds against the Austrian side can get the better of Trencin and give themselves a strong platform to progress to the Europa League Group Stage and I will back them to do that.

MY PICKS: Rostov + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Villarreal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astana @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Austria Vienna-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Astra + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

August Update: 3-3, - 0.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)