This is the final international break the fans will have to sit through until March 2018, but there are a few important fixtures to come in the next week with the final World Cup places up for grabs in six Play Off ties.
With the two Legged Play Off ties being played from Thursday 9th November to Wednesday 15th November I will place all picks from those games in this one thread. During that time we also have a couple of rounds of international friendlies with England, Germany, France and Brazil involved in some big fixtures, although I have to say that at this stage of the season players have withdrawn from those squads to make sure they are ready to go for their club teams ahead of a busy period of games.
Before the next round of Premier League fixtures I should have another short piece about Manchester United after what has been a difficult period. That will be posted around the middle of next week and the next set of Premier League/domestic football picks will be out next Friday ahead of the next weekend round of fixtures.
Croatia v Greece Pick: If Croatia could get on the same page off the field, I am convinced on field performances would reach the desired levels where this team could fulfil their potential as a dark horse going into a major international tournament. Recent years have seen Croatia flatter to deceive far too often and there continues to be an upheaval surrounding the national team that makes it hard for them to produce their best.
That has been highlighted in recent weeks as manager Ante Cacic was sacked with just one Qualifier to play and Croatia in a desperate position in the Group. That sacking came amidst criticism from fans and players alike, and Zlatko Dalic came in to guide Croatia to an impressive 0-2 win in Ukraine to ensure a 2nd place finish in the Group.
There is still work for Dalic to do if Croatia are going to earn a place in the World Cup Finals and they have to be comfortable with the draw for the Play Off. That is not a disrespect to opponents Greece, but Croatia will feel they are the stronger team on paper and will believe they should be winning this tie.
Greece have shown they are back to the defensive shape which helped them win the European Championships thirteen years ago and they proved tough to beat in the World Cup Qualifying Group. This is a team that have not conceded a lot of goals and who earned a 1-1 draw in Belgium which may have been better if not reduced to nine men before conceding an 89th minute equaliser.
The goal for this game has been made clear by Greece manager Michael Skibbe who wants to make sure the Second Leg is where this tie will be won. That means Greece are likely to set up in deep numbers to try and contain Croatia and hope to hit them on the break, as they did to Belgium, but the home team in this one are plenty solid themselves.
Scoring goals in Croatia has been difficult for visitors and you can understand why the layers are offering such short odds on two or fewer goals in this one. It would be a real surprise if there is not plenty to play for when they reconvene in the Second Leg, but I also think Croatia are strong enough at home to earn an advantage for that Leg.
It won't come easy and I would be surprised if Croatia have a big lead to take into the Second Leg. Backing them to win to nil looks short enough when you think Greece have been effective away from home in their Qualifiers in the last couple of years, but having a small interest in the Croatians winning by a single goal margin looks a tempting enough price.
Northern Ireland v Switzerland Pick: There are two different mindsets going into the World Cup Qualifier Play Off for Northern Ireland and Switzerland- while Northern Ireland are pleased to have this opportunity to reach the World Cup Finals in Russia, Switzerland have to be disappointed that they missed out on winning their Qualifying Group in the final round of Qualifiers.
Dealing with that disappointment is going to be the key for Switzerland and being able to focus on a team they will feel they are superior to. On paper you would think Switzerland are probably the better team over two Legs, but Northern Ireland have been overachieving over the last three years and they play with the confidence that has been earned in that time.
Germany may have won at Windsor Park, but that was the first home Qualifier Northern Ireland had lost since September 2013 and that has to be respected. Switzerland have a very strong away record in Qualifiers though and that has to be the main reason they are the favourites to win the First Leg.
Winning in Northern Ireland has not been easy though and I do want to side with the home team in some manner. The way Switzerland were sent into the Play Off has to be a concern for their backers as there could be a negative reaction that has set in, especially in the First Leg away from home.
They have to feel that avoiding defeat would give them a great chance of progressing to the World Cup Finals and Northern Ireland are also keen to stay alive for the Second Leg. It may lead to two teams who are remain a little cautious throughout this First Leg and that may end up seeing them producing a tight game.
The layers are all over that by offering a really short price on there being less than two goals scored in the game. However I am still a little surprised that Northern Ireland have been dismissed as much as they have in this one which means they can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake as a winner if they do end up with a draw.
The draw is a real player here, but Northern Ireland have performed very well at Windsor Park which is something I want to keep on my side by backing the home team on the Asian Handicap.
Sweden v Italy Pick: Out of the four UEFA Play Off ties that are being played, this one looks to be the one that will generate the most interest around Europe. Both Sweden and Italy are the kind of nations that are associated with major international tournaments and both will feel they should be gracing the fields in Russia next summer.
It does feel like the Italian side are the better one and they were simply unfortunate to be in the same Qualifying Group as Spain, while Sweden overachieved to make the Play Off Round. However Sweden should be afforded full respect at home where they won their last 4 Qualifiers including beating a France team that will go to Russia as one of the favourites to win the World Cup.
To be fair, Sweden were beyond a little fortunate to win that game thanks to a comical error from Huge Lloris deep into injury time, but it does mean the First Leg is where their best chance will come to reach the World Cup Finals. I do think Sweden are a tough team to visit and Italy have regularly been the kind of nation that will do what is necessary to make it through matches.
With a Second Leg to come at home, I am not sure Italy will risk too many men forward when a draw would suit them fine. They are a team that have won 7 of 10 away Qualifiers, but wins over the likes of Macedonia, Israel, Norway and Albania are against weaker teams than the Swedish one they face on Friday. The exceptions at Bulgaria, Croatia and Spain shows that Italy can be challenged by stronger home nations and Sweden fit that category.
I was leaning towards backing Sweden on the Asian Handicap, but a full payout only comes if Sweden win the game. That is harder to see when you think Italy have lost 1 of their last 30 away Qualifiers but I also think the away team will want to make sure they are in a position to win this tie in the Second Leg.
It could mean a more cautious performance from Italy in this First Leg and I will have a small interest in this game to finish in a draw.
Honduras v Australia Pick: There are a couple of inter-Confederation World Cup Play Off ties that also need to be decided before the World Cup Finals draw takes place in early December.
One of those sees the CONCACAF Confederation representative take on the Asian Confederation representative which sees Honduras meet Australia over two Legs. This tie actually is the biggest distance between nations in all of the Play Offs still to be played and much will be decided by how well the players cope with the travel time.
At least Australia can send a squad with a plenty of players involved with European teams to cut the travel time for the First Leg. This is going to be an important tie for Australia who have played poorly on their travels in recent World Cup Qualifiers especially as they would want to remain alive for the Second Leg.
Honduras have played well at home and can't be underestimated having played in back to back World Cup Finals, but this is a team that will offer Australia chances. They won just 2 of 5 home games in the final Qualifying Group and Honduras did not keep a clean sheet in any of those games which will offer Australia encouragement despite being without Tim Cahill and Mathew Leckie in the First Leg.
On the other hand Honduras will be confident considering Australia's failure to win in away games against Thailand, Iraq and Syria in their recent World Cup Qualifiers on their travels. Those nations are not as strong as this underrated Honduras team are and the edge has to be given to the home team in the First Leg.
However I can't ignore the fact that Honduras have conceded in their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers including against Canada and Trinidad and Tobago. Honduras have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home Qualifiers and Australia have done the same in 4 of their last 5 away Qualifiers.
The layers are not anticipating a lot of goals in this one, but I do think there is every chance both teams can score in this one. Australia could be dangerous on the counter attack against a Honduras team who do concede goals but who will want to earn a lead in the First Leg, while Australia have looked suspect defensively.
At odds against both teams scoring has to be worth backing here and the Second Leg should still see everything to play for.
New Zealand v Peru Pick: On paper it is understandable why Peru are clear favourites to get the better of a New Zealand side that have struggled when asked to compete with teams from outside of the Oceana Confederation. That was shown up in the Confederations Cup as New Zealand ultimately struggled to maintain the levels needed to win games against the better nations out there.
This Play Off tie could have been so much more difficult for New Zealand as it looked like teams like Argentina and Chile could be the potential opponents. That doesn't mean New Zealand are favourites though and they will need to really perform to their highest level and hope Peru underperform if they have any chance to make it through to the World Cup Finals.
Four years ago New Zealand found Mexico too good in both Legs and that has to be the fear for them here. The layers seem to believe it is a high chance that Peru will win both Legs as they odds on to win in New Zealand, but the travel time across for this First Leg might be the biggest obstacle in the way.
Peru have shown they are going to be tough to beat on their travels judging by their performances in the difficult South American Qualifying Group and playing as well as they did there should be enough for the win here. However I think the layers may have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals which has been priced up at odds against.
This is a game in which New Zealand have to get forward and put themselves in a positive situation for the Second Leg. That should leave gaps for Peru, while New Zealand have shown they can create chances against better teams when challenging Russia, Mexico and Portugal at the Confederations Cup.
They should be able to create against Peru, but the latter will feel they can get forward and score goals even though Paolo Guerrero is suspended. Before the 0-0 draw in Argentina, Peru had scored twice in 3 away Qualifiers in a row, while they had conceded in 31 away Qualifiers before that draw in Argentina.
Both teams could score in this one and I would not be surprised if the situation of the First Leg leads to a few more openings as New Zealand push for a lead and Peru try and hit them on the counter. At the price backing at least three goals to be shared out looks too big to ignore.
Denmark v Republic of Ireland Pick: This is likely to be the Play Off tie that both Denmark and Republic of Ireland would have been happy to accept prior to the Play Off draw and both teams have to be confident of their chances of progressing.
The key for the Republic of Ireland is going to be making sure the Second Leg back in Dublin is where the tie is won and that means making things difficult for their hosts in the First Leg. That has been a feature of the way the Irish have been set out in away games since Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane took over the reigns of the national team.
It has proven to be an effective tactic as Ireland have produced big wins in Austria and Wales in this Qualifying Group, while they have also earned draws in Poland and Serbia in the last three years. Those are all the kind of results which will give Ireland plenty of confidence to take to Denmark with those nations comparable to the one they will face in this Play Off tie.
Denmark have shown improvement in recent games which has to be respected. In particular the 4-0 win over Poland in September shows what Denmark are capable of when they get everything right, but the Danes are also a team that have been inconsistent in recent home Qualifiers.
The loss to Montenegro and draw with Romania in home Qualifiers in this Group as well as the home draws with Albania and Sweden in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers shows Denmark are not an unbeatable team and makes their odds on quotes look plenty short. Denmark were also knocked out in the Euro 2016 Play Offs while the Republic of Ireland got through that Round against Bosnia-Herzegovina which may give the away team confidence of earning a result over two Legs.
It is a very tight Play Off tie and I don't think there will be a lot between Denmark and Ireland over the two Legs. Denmark probably have the better players on paper, but Ireland are a very effective team that comes together to be greater than the sum of their parts.
With a close tie anticipated, I am not sure Denmark deserve to be a short favourite to win the First Leg and I like backing Ireland with the start on the Asian Handicap. Ireland have shown resilience to suggest they can get something here and wins over Austria and Wales away from home in the Qualifying Group makes them much more appealing to back than the Danes in the First Leg.
The two Legs should be very close and I can't see Ireland losing by more than a single goal margin if they are to lose here, so taking the visitors with the start looks to be the call.
Switzerland v Northern Ireland Pick: There was some controversy attached to Switzerland's 0-1 win at Northern Ireland in the First Leg of this Play Off tie, but that shouldn't hide the fact that they had much of the running on the day.
With better composure in the final third Switzerland would have likely won fairly comfortably at Windsor Park and this Second Leg is likely to have a similar feel. I don't imagine Northern Ireland will change their tactics as they try and frustrate Switzerland and catch them on the counter.
That can be the plan for at least the first hour as long as Northern Ireland haven't conceded another goal, but at some point they will have to come out and search for the away goal given up at Windsor Park. That may make things a little easier for Switzerland when it comes to creating chances in the final third.
Goals have been a problem for Northern Ireland away from home having failed to score in 3 of their 5 away Qualifiers in the World Cup Group. That is likely to be a big problem against a Switzerland team who have conceded just 2 goals in 5 home games in their own World Cup Qualifying Group and kept 4 clean sheets in that time.
Backing Switzerland to win to nil could be a good play, but I think it may pay off to back them to win this by a relatively comfortable margin. I believe Switzerland can't keep missing the opportunities they are creating and at some point Northern Ireland will have to commit men forward to try and get back into the tie which could see them picked off when the shape is lost.
I will look for Switzerland to book their World Cup Finals spot while covering the Asian Handicap in this one.
MY PICKS: 09/11 Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.30 Stan James (1 Unit)
09/11 Northern Ireland + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
10/11 Sweden-Italy Draw @ 3.20 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
10/11 Honduras-Australia Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
11/11 New Zealand-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
11/11 Republic of Ireland + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
12/11 Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label Play Off. Show all posts
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Thursday, 9 November 2017
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 16-18)
After the first three picks of the 2016/17 season fell short of the mark, I was wondering if I was about to suffer the beginning of another awful August to continue the trend of recent seasons.
However the last three picks bounced back to close those losses and now we move onto a loaded midweek schedule filled with Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round First Legs as well as the third round of games in the lower Leagues in England.
This weekend will see the opening of the Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A as the new season really start picking up steam, although that momentum is snapped early in September when the World Cup Qualifiers means there is a two week break from August 28th until September 10th.
You might have noticed the new 'Featured Post' I have set up on the blog's main page which will prevent some of these picks falling too far down once the tennis picks are being played on a daily basis. I will mainly use the 'Featured Post' to feature the Weekend Football Picks as well as the College Football and NFL Picks which will be made from the beginning of September as those threads usually cover a few days and can easily slip down the page.
It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Celtic who are trying to earn a place in the Champions League Group Stage, while West Ham United have a chance of earning revenge against Astra who knocked them out of the Europa League last season.
I would also guess Rafa Benitez is facing a big week at Newcastle United who have made a poor start to life in the Championship and then we will move onto the Premier League games which will begin on Friday this week for the first time this season.
Hopefully the picks can move forward effectively after the last three came in as winners and get this August off to an unusually good start.
Ajax v Rostov Pick: The Champions League Play Off Round will be played over the next nine days as teams bid to get into the Group Stage alongside some of the biggest names in European football. Both Ajax and Rostov have to be happy with the draw that will see them play each other twice for one of those places and we could see two competitive matches between them.
The layers are less sure with Ajax coming into the First Leg as a healthy favourite to take an advantage to Russia next week. They do look short when you consider the last 4 home European games have seen Ajax draw with Celtic, Fenerbahce, Molde and PAOK in the last Round, while Ajax were also beaten 2-3 by Rapid Vienna in the Third Qualifying Round of the Champions League last season.
Ajax certainly have the edge in terms of European experience and they have played in the Champions League Group Stage just two seasons ago, while Rostov are only in one of the big two European competitions for the second time in their history. However their 0-2 win at Anderlecht in the Third Qualifying Round Second Leg was a huge result for Rostov and they have continued to perform effectively despite some financial issues they have been suffering over the last twelve months.
You have to think Rostov will look to be tough to beat and catch Ajax on the counter attack to give themselves a chance in the Second Leg next week at home. They should be able to make life difficult for Ajax who have struggled under the weight of expectation at home in recent European games and that might be the case on Tuesday as the fans will expect them to win this one.
Rostov showed in Zenit St Petersburg that they are capable and scoring twice there and in Anderlecht makes them a dangerous opponent. Ajax have won just 5 of their last 12 home games in the Champions League and only 2 of those have come by more than a single goal margin and I think backing Rostov on the Asian Handicap could be the play this week.
Even a one goal defeat for Rostov would return half of the stakes and Ajax's run of games without a win at home in European competition can't be ignored, while they have also drawn 4 of their last 6 home games in all competitions.
Steaua Bucharest v Manchester City Pick: There were many other potential opponents in the Champions League Play Off that might have given Manchester City a real problem over two Legs, but they will be happy they have been set up with Steaua Bucharest. The Romanian side have been talking up their chances of earning the upset after a really positive start to the new season, and they might have half a chance if Manchester City are still trying to find their feet under Pep Guardiola's guidance.
The win over Sunderland was not Manchester City at their best while the full backs are being asked to fulfil different roles when the team have the ball as they are almost making it five players across the centre of midfield. Overloading those areas is fair enough but Guardiola was asking Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna to play a lot of creative passes which is clearly not their strength.
I can imagine his tactics will take some time getting used to, but Manchester City can't afford to start too slowly with this Play Off tie huge for them. Going out of the Champions League before the Group Stage would be a massive blow, but you have to think there is too much quality in the squad to actually fall to an upset over two Legs.
The first game in Romania will be tough as Steaua Bucharest are in fine form and beat Sparta Prague 2-0 here in the last Round, an impressive result when thinking Sparta Prague reached the Quarter Final of the Europa League in April. However Steaua Bucharest did not play that well here last season when faced with the increased quality in Europe compared with their domestic League and the side lost to both Trencin and Rosenborg while drawing with Partizan Belgrade in front of their own fans.
None of those three teams would be favourites to beat Manchester City and I do think the English team can show the extra quality they have to wear down Steaua Bucharest. The home team can't afford to play things too tight as they will want to have a lead to take to The Etihad Stadium next week and I think Manchester City will be able to pick them off.
Manchester City might not have the best away record in the Champions League, but they have mainly come against teams that are superior to Steaua Bucharest. In the last three seasons Manchester City have won half of their 14 away games in the Champions League and 4 of those wins have come by more than one goal. They have won 0-3 at Viktoria Plzen, 1-2 at CSKA Moscow and 1-3 at Dynamo Kiev in that time and I will back Manchester City to record a comfortable win in Romania to put one foot into the Group Stage.
Aston Villa v Huddersfield Town Pick: The scoreboard might have suggested Aston Villa had an 'easy' afternoon on Saturday when beating Rotherham United 3-0, but there were some real scares for them in that match especially when only leading 1-0.
It is a big win to boost the confidence, but their visitors will also be heading into this match with plenty of belief as Huddersfield Town secured a very impressive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last time out.
That follows a 2-1 League win over Brentford and all three Huddersfield Town matches so far in the new season have provided at least three goals shared out. While they have looked good going forward, defensively Huddersfield Town can be vulnerable and Aston Villa have shown they can take advantage of any chances that they do create.
This match has all the makings of being a 2-1 scoreline either way as both teams have shown attacking threats mixed with some defensive problems. At odds against, backing at least three goals shared out looks the call.
Leeds United v Fulham Pick: With an owner that has been as trigger happy on the sacking button as Massimo Cellino has been since taking over at Leeds United, Garry Monk has to be feeling the pressure after back to back League losses. Now they have to take on surprise package Fulham at Elland Road where the big crowd comes with plenty of expectations every week which seems to cripple the team from expressing themselves.
I am not sure where I stand on Fulham who have surprised me twice already this season with unexpected wins, but they are not as big outsiders in this one as they have been in their first two League wins.
That will change the mindset and I will be keeping an eye on where Fulham go after this game, but I do think they can contribute to a decent spectacle for the fans on Tuesday.
Leeds United have looked poor defensively, but will be expected to attack at home which should see chances created at both ends. Fulham had 15 of 23 away games see three goals shared out last season and they have already opened with two more in the last week and I think the odds against quotes have to be backed for at least three goals scored in this match.
Norwich City v Bristol City Pick: I am not sure why the Norwich City fans seemed so willing to get on the backs of their players after the goalless draw with Sheffield Wednesday, but Alex Neil showed enough resolve as manager last season to not be overly concerned about that reaction from the supporters.
That game on Saturday was between two teams who will likely challenge for promotion to the Premier League, but Norwich City should have a better chance of recording a win when facing Bristol City. The Robins have made a brilliant start to the new season, but may have benefited from what looks a decent set of fixtures on paper.
Now they are in for a much tougher match than the likes of Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion, two promoted teams from League One, and Bristol City struggled when visiting the best teams in the Championship last season. While they will be more confident having won all 3 games played so far this season, it might be tough to bridge the gap between themselves and a relegated team from the Premier League and I think Norwich City will earn the win to send the fans home happier than they were on Saturday.
Celtic v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: The Champions League is clearly the priority for Celtic at this stage of the season and failing to get to the Group Stage for a third consecutive season would be a big blow to Brendan Rodgers and the club. The last couple of years have seen Celtic lose to Maribor and Malmo in the Play Off Round of the competition after negotiating the earlier Qualifying Rounds, but arguably Hapoel Be'er Sheva are the weakest of the trio they have faced.
Some may even argue that the tie against Astana in the Third Qualifying Round was the more difficult one, but that means increased expectation on the Celtic players. Having the home game first will increase the pressure too as Celtic will feel they need some sort of lead to take to Israel next week, although they can't afford to underestimate Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
The Israeli Champions have shown they can dig in and battle for a result in their goalless draws at Sheriff Tiraspol and Olympiacos in the Champions League already. Like Celtic, Hapoel Be'er Sheva could easily suggest their Third Qualifying Round opponent, Olympiacos, is tougher than the one they see in the Play Off Round, but there is less experience in the Israeli squad compared with Celtic.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have had two upset wins to get into this Play Off Round, but I can't shift their losses to RNK Split and Thun from my mind and feel they might have overachieved already. They lost the away Leg in both of those Europa League Second Qualifying Round ties and I do think Celtic will have enough quality to find a way to earn a narrow win in this one.
The tie should be far from over for when they recommence battle next week in the Second Leg, but I do expect Celtic to begin that Leg with some sort of lead to defend.
Dundalk v Legia Warsaw Pick: It has been a special run which has taken Dundalk through to the Champions League Play Off Round and the 3-0 win over BATE Borisov in the Third Qualifying Round has to be one of their biggest wins in their history. Beating Legia Warsaw would surpass that and put Dundalk alongside some of the biggest names in European football, and the players have admitted they are going into the match without an 'inferiority complex' weighing them down.
There is a lot to admire about the run Dundalk have had, but I can't help feel they have perhaps been overrated a little in this First Leg. They haven't lost any of their last 3 home games, but Dundalk did have to settle for a 1-1 draw with FH from Iceland and they were comfortably seen off by Hajduk Split in Ireland just a couple of years ago.
Home advantage might not be as strong as normal either with the game being played at the Aviva Stadium due to the demand for tickets. Plenty in the crowd will be there to see Legia Warsaw too and the Polish Champions have come through tougher tests already in the Champions League to make it to the Play Off Round.
Only two years ago Legia Warsaw came to Dublin and beat Irish Champions St Patrick's Athletic 0-5 and while I can't see it being that easy this week, I do think the away side are considerably stronger.
Unlike BATE Borisov, Legia Warsaw have a decent away record in European competition and have won at St Patrick's Athletic and Celtic in recent years. I expect they can make their quality count in this one and the odds against quotes are tempting enough to see Legia Warsaw have any kind of advantage heading to Poland next week.
Porto v Roma Pick: This is arguably the best Play Off Round tie and there isn't a lot to separate Porto and Roma as both teams are desperate to make the Champions League Group Stage. The home advantage and the fact their season has already begun might favour Porto, but Roma aren't far behind when it comes to their fitness as their own domestic campaign begins this weekend.
However Roma haven't always been the best travelling team in Europe and so the key for them might be to head to Portugal and look to grab an away goal even in a narrow defeat to take back to the Italian capital. That would still make Roma favourites to progress, but I really don't think there will be much between the teams over both Legs.
The Porto home form isn't as strong as some of the previous teams have produced and they did end last season with 2 losses from their final 5 games here. While they did beat Chelsea in the Champions League at home, Porto lost their last 2 European home games against Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund, but they had won 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League before the loss to Dynamo Kiev.
On the other hand, Roma are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League Second Round and they did lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League last season. Two of those came against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it is the defeat at BATE Borisov that was the stand out result for Roma.
Goals weren't a problem in Roma away games last season and they will likely push for an away goal or two in this one. The onus is on Porto to attack too as they look to get a lead to protect for the Second Leg and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in what are normally tight First Leg affairs.
Villarreal v Monaco Pick: Antonio Cordon is the big link between Villarreal and Monaco as he has moved from the former to the latter in the summer. Cordon has been considered a key part of the Villarreal recruitment policy in recent years which has rejuvenated this club and he is expected to do the same for Monaco who are someway of the pace set by Paris Saint-Germain in France.
However it will be events on the pitch that will determine which of these teams makes it through the Play Off Round and into the Champions League Group Stage. Both Villarreal and Monaco might have hoped to avoid one another in this Round and I can see this being a close contest over two Legs.
In both cases I think the home advantage is going to be of real importance and Monaco showed those vulnerabilities on their travels that Villarreal will be looking to exploit. Monaco have not won any of their last 5 away European games and have lost 3 of those including a defeat in Spain to Valencia in the Play Off Round last season.
On the other hand Villarreal have won 7 in a row at home in European competition and have won 11 of their last 13 here. They will be looking to get on the front foot and give themselves some sort of advantage to take into the Second Leg next week and I do think Villarreal can win the First Leg.
Radamel Falcao has scored in the last two Champions League games for Monaco but could potentially be missing for this First Leg which will give Villarreal a boost in confidence. Even though the home team have made some changes to the starting eleven with their transfer dealings over the summer, I think Villarreal can continue their fine home European form and give themselves a narrow advantage to take to Monaco next week for the Second Leg.
Cardiff City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers have made poor starts to the new season but they will both be heading into this fixture feeling they have a good chance to turn around their immediate fortunes.
The edge has to be given to Cardiff City who are hosting this match and who had played well at home for much of last season. Their 0-2 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday was a surprising loss and Cardiff City have yet to score in 3 games in all competitions this season, but they are facing a porous Blackburn Rovers defence in this one.
Owen Coyle must already be under pressure as Blackburn Rovers manager thanks to seven goals conceded in a couple of League games, but I don't want to rule a line through this team in this match. They did struggle when facing the best teams in the Division away from home last season, and I do think this is going to be a difficult season for Blackburn Rovers, but the lack of goals in the Cardiff City squad to open the season is a concern when backing the home team.
However the odds against quotes for Cardiff City are tempting enough as they should remain tough to play in Wales and I will back them to win this one.
Newcastle United v Reading Pick: Having expected Newcastle United to win in each of the first two games of the League season, it was unexpected that I have been wrong both times as they have surprisingly lost to both Fulham and Huddersfield Town. That makes this game a huge one for Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez especially as The Toon Army could be right on the brink of revolt if they see their side lose another League game already.
Last time in the Championship Newcastle United only lost 4 games all season so falling to a third defeat before the end of the first month would be a huge blow to The Magpies.
Facing Reading means a meeting with another club that are expected to be in the bottom half of the League table, but Newcastle United can't underestimate them after falling to Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Reading have at least won a game already this season in the League, but their away record over the last twelve months in the Championship has been disappointing.
I might be a little foolish in backing Newcastle United this week, but they look a decent price to get back on the horse against a team that lost 14 of 23 away games last season and already went down 2-0 at Wolves this past weekend. Failure in this one could easily cost Rafa Benitez his job, but I expect the Spaniard to get it right and help Newcastle United to the three points and ease the pressure on himself.
Astana v BATE Borisov Pick: Both Astana and BATE Borisov have to get over the disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage having both been playing in that part of the competition last season. Both would have felt they should have beaten Celtic and Dundalk respectively, but the winner of this tie could still face some major European names with the likes of Manchester United and Inter Milan in the Groups of the Europa League.
Home advantage is likely to be key for both clubs over the next week and I think Astana can give themselves an advantage to take to Belarus in the Second Leg.
Astana are unbeaten in 8 home European games and they did win 3 Qualifiers here last season in the Champions League and they did hold the likes of Atletico Madrid and Benfica here. If they had taken their chances Astana would have added Celtic to the list of teams they have beaten here over the last twelve months and they will be hard to stop in front of their own fans.
On the other hand BATE Borisov have failed to win any of their last 18 away European games and have lost 12 of those games. Defeats in Debrecen, Partizan Belgrade and Dundalk suggests there is some sort of mental block for BATE Borisov outside of Belarus that they have to resolve and this is a tough place to do that.
This will be a tight tie over two Legs and there isn't a lot between them, but I think Astana can make home advantage count to give them a narrow lead for the Second Leg.
Austria Vienna v Rosenborg Pick: If this Europa League Play Off Round tie is anything like when Austria Vienna met Rosenborg in the 1993/94 Champions League then the neutrals are in for a treat.
Both of those games were high-scoring, attacking and dramatic matches but both Austria Vienna and Rosenborg are much changed teams now.
Austria Vienna are back in European competition after a couple of years of missing out but they have struggled at home, while Rosenborg might feel they should still be trying to get into the Champions League Group Stage after going out thanks to three injury time goals to APOEL in the Third Qualifying Round.
The Rosenborg away games in recent European games have tended to be high-scoring as they have shown they can score goals, but also seem to be vulnerable defensively. They had also conceded three times in 3 away games in a row before beating Viking 0-2 last time out, while Austria Vienna's home games have produced nine goals in the last couple of games.
I do think both teams will give this First Leg a go and I am looking for goals to be shared out by the two sides. A gut feeling says Rosenborg snap their recent run of 4 consecutive away defeats in Europe to give themselves a platform to move into the Europa League Group Stage, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet in this one either.
Astra v West Ham United Pick: There looks to be a clear shift in how Slaven Bilic views the Europa League this season compared with the attitude last season and so a stronger West Ham United team are expected to take on Astra this time around. Last season a much changed team took the lead in Romania but were eventually beaten 2-1 and a stronger starting line up is expected in this one.
However West Ham United have not been at their best away from home in recent games compared with how well they began last season in the Premier League. The defeat at Chelsea saw a flat performance from The Hammers, but they are not expected to make wholesale changes as they did when they visited Astra last season.
It also has to be said that Astra's recent form is not the most impressive and they have already been disappointed with an early Champions League exit. However they have saved their best performances in European competition for their home games and Astra are unbeaten in 6 home games in Europe which makes odds on quotes for a West Ham United win look short enough.
Add in the fact that West Ham United have lost their last 3 away games in Europe as well as their last 3 away games overall and you have to have the feeling that Slaven Bilic would take a draw to finish the job at home next week. Last season only a James Collins sending off turned the home tie with West Ham United 2-0 up and they will believe they can win at home as long as they don't have a big deficit to overcome.
I do expect a strong West Ham United team to take to the field in this one. Even with that in mind, I think they look short in a match they would be happy to take a draw and I am happy to back Astra on the Asian Handicap where a one goal loss would return half the stakes.
Trencin v Rapid Vienna Pick: The poor home form in European football has cost Trencin their place in the Group Stage of either the Champions League or Europa League in recent seasons. Trencin have had some good results too, but winning over two Legs is a tough proposition, while the side have made a poor start to the new season both domestically and in Europe.
While they are dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League, Rapid Vienna are still the favourites to come through this tie over two Legs. In fact the Austrian side are favourites to win the First Leg and I think they can be backed at odds against.
Rapid Vienna won away games at Ajax, Viktoria Plzen and Dinamo Minsk last season and also drew with Shakhtar Donetsk which shows they are more than capable of matching the wins Legia Warsaw, NK Olimpija and Steaua Bucharest have recorded here over the last twelve months.
The 1-4 win at Austria Vienna would only have improved the confidence for Rapid Vienna while Trencin have had a poor start at home this season with 3 losses in 4 games. At odds against the Austrian side can get the better of Trencin and give themselves a strong platform to progress to the Europa League Group Stage and I will back them to do that.
MY PICKS: Rostov + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Villarreal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astana @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Austria Vienna-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Astra + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
However the last three picks bounced back to close those losses and now we move onto a loaded midweek schedule filled with Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round First Legs as well as the third round of games in the lower Leagues in England.
This weekend will see the opening of the Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A as the new season really start picking up steam, although that momentum is snapped early in September when the World Cup Qualifiers means there is a two week break from August 28th until September 10th.
You might have noticed the new 'Featured Post' I have set up on the blog's main page which will prevent some of these picks falling too far down once the tennis picks are being played on a daily basis. I will mainly use the 'Featured Post' to feature the Weekend Football Picks as well as the College Football and NFL Picks which will be made from the beginning of September as those threads usually cover a few days and can easily slip down the page.
It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Celtic who are trying to earn a place in the Champions League Group Stage, while West Ham United have a chance of earning revenge against Astra who knocked them out of the Europa League last season.
I would also guess Rafa Benitez is facing a big week at Newcastle United who have made a poor start to life in the Championship and then we will move onto the Premier League games which will begin on Friday this week for the first time this season.
Hopefully the picks can move forward effectively after the last three came in as winners and get this August off to an unusually good start.
Ajax v Rostov Pick: The Champions League Play Off Round will be played over the next nine days as teams bid to get into the Group Stage alongside some of the biggest names in European football. Both Ajax and Rostov have to be happy with the draw that will see them play each other twice for one of those places and we could see two competitive matches between them.
The layers are less sure with Ajax coming into the First Leg as a healthy favourite to take an advantage to Russia next week. They do look short when you consider the last 4 home European games have seen Ajax draw with Celtic, Fenerbahce, Molde and PAOK in the last Round, while Ajax were also beaten 2-3 by Rapid Vienna in the Third Qualifying Round of the Champions League last season.
Ajax certainly have the edge in terms of European experience and they have played in the Champions League Group Stage just two seasons ago, while Rostov are only in one of the big two European competitions for the second time in their history. However their 0-2 win at Anderlecht in the Third Qualifying Round Second Leg was a huge result for Rostov and they have continued to perform effectively despite some financial issues they have been suffering over the last twelve months.
You have to think Rostov will look to be tough to beat and catch Ajax on the counter attack to give themselves a chance in the Second Leg next week at home. They should be able to make life difficult for Ajax who have struggled under the weight of expectation at home in recent European games and that might be the case on Tuesday as the fans will expect them to win this one.
Rostov showed in Zenit St Petersburg that they are capable and scoring twice there and in Anderlecht makes them a dangerous opponent. Ajax have won just 5 of their last 12 home games in the Champions League and only 2 of those have come by more than a single goal margin and I think backing Rostov on the Asian Handicap could be the play this week.
Even a one goal defeat for Rostov would return half of the stakes and Ajax's run of games without a win at home in European competition can't be ignored, while they have also drawn 4 of their last 6 home games in all competitions.
Steaua Bucharest v Manchester City Pick: There were many other potential opponents in the Champions League Play Off that might have given Manchester City a real problem over two Legs, but they will be happy they have been set up with Steaua Bucharest. The Romanian side have been talking up their chances of earning the upset after a really positive start to the new season, and they might have half a chance if Manchester City are still trying to find their feet under Pep Guardiola's guidance.
The win over Sunderland was not Manchester City at their best while the full backs are being asked to fulfil different roles when the team have the ball as they are almost making it five players across the centre of midfield. Overloading those areas is fair enough but Guardiola was asking Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna to play a lot of creative passes which is clearly not their strength.
I can imagine his tactics will take some time getting used to, but Manchester City can't afford to start too slowly with this Play Off tie huge for them. Going out of the Champions League before the Group Stage would be a massive blow, but you have to think there is too much quality in the squad to actually fall to an upset over two Legs.
The first game in Romania will be tough as Steaua Bucharest are in fine form and beat Sparta Prague 2-0 here in the last Round, an impressive result when thinking Sparta Prague reached the Quarter Final of the Europa League in April. However Steaua Bucharest did not play that well here last season when faced with the increased quality in Europe compared with their domestic League and the side lost to both Trencin and Rosenborg while drawing with Partizan Belgrade in front of their own fans.
None of those three teams would be favourites to beat Manchester City and I do think the English team can show the extra quality they have to wear down Steaua Bucharest. The home team can't afford to play things too tight as they will want to have a lead to take to The Etihad Stadium next week and I think Manchester City will be able to pick them off.
Manchester City might not have the best away record in the Champions League, but they have mainly come against teams that are superior to Steaua Bucharest. In the last three seasons Manchester City have won half of their 14 away games in the Champions League and 4 of those wins have come by more than one goal. They have won 0-3 at Viktoria Plzen, 1-2 at CSKA Moscow and 1-3 at Dynamo Kiev in that time and I will back Manchester City to record a comfortable win in Romania to put one foot into the Group Stage.
Aston Villa v Huddersfield Town Pick: The scoreboard might have suggested Aston Villa had an 'easy' afternoon on Saturday when beating Rotherham United 3-0, but there were some real scares for them in that match especially when only leading 1-0.
It is a big win to boost the confidence, but their visitors will also be heading into this match with plenty of belief as Huddersfield Town secured a very impressive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last time out.
That follows a 2-1 League win over Brentford and all three Huddersfield Town matches so far in the new season have provided at least three goals shared out. While they have looked good going forward, defensively Huddersfield Town can be vulnerable and Aston Villa have shown they can take advantage of any chances that they do create.
This match has all the makings of being a 2-1 scoreline either way as both teams have shown attacking threats mixed with some defensive problems. At odds against, backing at least three goals shared out looks the call.
Leeds United v Fulham Pick: With an owner that has been as trigger happy on the sacking button as Massimo Cellino has been since taking over at Leeds United, Garry Monk has to be feeling the pressure after back to back League losses. Now they have to take on surprise package Fulham at Elland Road where the big crowd comes with plenty of expectations every week which seems to cripple the team from expressing themselves.
I am not sure where I stand on Fulham who have surprised me twice already this season with unexpected wins, but they are not as big outsiders in this one as they have been in their first two League wins.
That will change the mindset and I will be keeping an eye on where Fulham go after this game, but I do think they can contribute to a decent spectacle for the fans on Tuesday.
Leeds United have looked poor defensively, but will be expected to attack at home which should see chances created at both ends. Fulham had 15 of 23 away games see three goals shared out last season and they have already opened with two more in the last week and I think the odds against quotes have to be backed for at least three goals scored in this match.
Norwich City v Bristol City Pick: I am not sure why the Norwich City fans seemed so willing to get on the backs of their players after the goalless draw with Sheffield Wednesday, but Alex Neil showed enough resolve as manager last season to not be overly concerned about that reaction from the supporters.
That game on Saturday was between two teams who will likely challenge for promotion to the Premier League, but Norwich City should have a better chance of recording a win when facing Bristol City. The Robins have made a brilliant start to the new season, but may have benefited from what looks a decent set of fixtures on paper.
Now they are in for a much tougher match than the likes of Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion, two promoted teams from League One, and Bristol City struggled when visiting the best teams in the Championship last season. While they will be more confident having won all 3 games played so far this season, it might be tough to bridge the gap between themselves and a relegated team from the Premier League and I think Norwich City will earn the win to send the fans home happier than they were on Saturday.
Celtic v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: The Champions League is clearly the priority for Celtic at this stage of the season and failing to get to the Group Stage for a third consecutive season would be a big blow to Brendan Rodgers and the club. The last couple of years have seen Celtic lose to Maribor and Malmo in the Play Off Round of the competition after negotiating the earlier Qualifying Rounds, but arguably Hapoel Be'er Sheva are the weakest of the trio they have faced.
Some may even argue that the tie against Astana in the Third Qualifying Round was the more difficult one, but that means increased expectation on the Celtic players. Having the home game first will increase the pressure too as Celtic will feel they need some sort of lead to take to Israel next week, although they can't afford to underestimate Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
The Israeli Champions have shown they can dig in and battle for a result in their goalless draws at Sheriff Tiraspol and Olympiacos in the Champions League already. Like Celtic, Hapoel Be'er Sheva could easily suggest their Third Qualifying Round opponent, Olympiacos, is tougher than the one they see in the Play Off Round, but there is less experience in the Israeli squad compared with Celtic.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have had two upset wins to get into this Play Off Round, but I can't shift their losses to RNK Split and Thun from my mind and feel they might have overachieved already. They lost the away Leg in both of those Europa League Second Qualifying Round ties and I do think Celtic will have enough quality to find a way to earn a narrow win in this one.
The tie should be far from over for when they recommence battle next week in the Second Leg, but I do expect Celtic to begin that Leg with some sort of lead to defend.
Dundalk v Legia Warsaw Pick: It has been a special run which has taken Dundalk through to the Champions League Play Off Round and the 3-0 win over BATE Borisov in the Third Qualifying Round has to be one of their biggest wins in their history. Beating Legia Warsaw would surpass that and put Dundalk alongside some of the biggest names in European football, and the players have admitted they are going into the match without an 'inferiority complex' weighing them down.
There is a lot to admire about the run Dundalk have had, but I can't help feel they have perhaps been overrated a little in this First Leg. They haven't lost any of their last 3 home games, but Dundalk did have to settle for a 1-1 draw with FH from Iceland and they were comfortably seen off by Hajduk Split in Ireland just a couple of years ago.
Home advantage might not be as strong as normal either with the game being played at the Aviva Stadium due to the demand for tickets. Plenty in the crowd will be there to see Legia Warsaw too and the Polish Champions have come through tougher tests already in the Champions League to make it to the Play Off Round.
Only two years ago Legia Warsaw came to Dublin and beat Irish Champions St Patrick's Athletic 0-5 and while I can't see it being that easy this week, I do think the away side are considerably stronger.
Unlike BATE Borisov, Legia Warsaw have a decent away record in European competition and have won at St Patrick's Athletic and Celtic in recent years. I expect they can make their quality count in this one and the odds against quotes are tempting enough to see Legia Warsaw have any kind of advantage heading to Poland next week.
Porto v Roma Pick: This is arguably the best Play Off Round tie and there isn't a lot to separate Porto and Roma as both teams are desperate to make the Champions League Group Stage. The home advantage and the fact their season has already begun might favour Porto, but Roma aren't far behind when it comes to their fitness as their own domestic campaign begins this weekend.
However Roma haven't always been the best travelling team in Europe and so the key for them might be to head to Portugal and look to grab an away goal even in a narrow defeat to take back to the Italian capital. That would still make Roma favourites to progress, but I really don't think there will be much between the teams over both Legs.
The Porto home form isn't as strong as some of the previous teams have produced and they did end last season with 2 losses from their final 5 games here. While they did beat Chelsea in the Champions League at home, Porto lost their last 2 European home games against Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund, but they had won 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League before the loss to Dynamo Kiev.
On the other hand, Roma are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League Second Round and they did lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League last season. Two of those came against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it is the defeat at BATE Borisov that was the stand out result for Roma.
Goals weren't a problem in Roma away games last season and they will likely push for an away goal or two in this one. The onus is on Porto to attack too as they look to get a lead to protect for the Second Leg and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in what are normally tight First Leg affairs.
Villarreal v Monaco Pick: Antonio Cordon is the big link between Villarreal and Monaco as he has moved from the former to the latter in the summer. Cordon has been considered a key part of the Villarreal recruitment policy in recent years which has rejuvenated this club and he is expected to do the same for Monaco who are someway of the pace set by Paris Saint-Germain in France.
However it will be events on the pitch that will determine which of these teams makes it through the Play Off Round and into the Champions League Group Stage. Both Villarreal and Monaco might have hoped to avoid one another in this Round and I can see this being a close contest over two Legs.
In both cases I think the home advantage is going to be of real importance and Monaco showed those vulnerabilities on their travels that Villarreal will be looking to exploit. Monaco have not won any of their last 5 away European games and have lost 3 of those including a defeat in Spain to Valencia in the Play Off Round last season.
On the other hand Villarreal have won 7 in a row at home in European competition and have won 11 of their last 13 here. They will be looking to get on the front foot and give themselves some sort of advantage to take into the Second Leg next week and I do think Villarreal can win the First Leg.
Radamel Falcao has scored in the last two Champions League games for Monaco but could potentially be missing for this First Leg which will give Villarreal a boost in confidence. Even though the home team have made some changes to the starting eleven with their transfer dealings over the summer, I think Villarreal can continue their fine home European form and give themselves a narrow advantage to take to Monaco next week for the Second Leg.
Cardiff City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers have made poor starts to the new season but they will both be heading into this fixture feeling they have a good chance to turn around their immediate fortunes.
The edge has to be given to Cardiff City who are hosting this match and who had played well at home for much of last season. Their 0-2 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday was a surprising loss and Cardiff City have yet to score in 3 games in all competitions this season, but they are facing a porous Blackburn Rovers defence in this one.
Owen Coyle must already be under pressure as Blackburn Rovers manager thanks to seven goals conceded in a couple of League games, but I don't want to rule a line through this team in this match. They did struggle when facing the best teams in the Division away from home last season, and I do think this is going to be a difficult season for Blackburn Rovers, but the lack of goals in the Cardiff City squad to open the season is a concern when backing the home team.
However the odds against quotes for Cardiff City are tempting enough as they should remain tough to play in Wales and I will back them to win this one.
Newcastle United v Reading Pick: Having expected Newcastle United to win in each of the first two games of the League season, it was unexpected that I have been wrong both times as they have surprisingly lost to both Fulham and Huddersfield Town. That makes this game a huge one for Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez especially as The Toon Army could be right on the brink of revolt if they see their side lose another League game already.
Last time in the Championship Newcastle United only lost 4 games all season so falling to a third defeat before the end of the first month would be a huge blow to The Magpies.
Facing Reading means a meeting with another club that are expected to be in the bottom half of the League table, but Newcastle United can't underestimate them after falling to Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Reading have at least won a game already this season in the League, but their away record over the last twelve months in the Championship has been disappointing.
I might be a little foolish in backing Newcastle United this week, but they look a decent price to get back on the horse against a team that lost 14 of 23 away games last season and already went down 2-0 at Wolves this past weekend. Failure in this one could easily cost Rafa Benitez his job, but I expect the Spaniard to get it right and help Newcastle United to the three points and ease the pressure on himself.
Astana v BATE Borisov Pick: Both Astana and BATE Borisov have to get over the disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage having both been playing in that part of the competition last season. Both would have felt they should have beaten Celtic and Dundalk respectively, but the winner of this tie could still face some major European names with the likes of Manchester United and Inter Milan in the Groups of the Europa League.
Home advantage is likely to be key for both clubs over the next week and I think Astana can give themselves an advantage to take to Belarus in the Second Leg.
Astana are unbeaten in 8 home European games and they did win 3 Qualifiers here last season in the Champions League and they did hold the likes of Atletico Madrid and Benfica here. If they had taken their chances Astana would have added Celtic to the list of teams they have beaten here over the last twelve months and they will be hard to stop in front of their own fans.
On the other hand BATE Borisov have failed to win any of their last 18 away European games and have lost 12 of those games. Defeats in Debrecen, Partizan Belgrade and Dundalk suggests there is some sort of mental block for BATE Borisov outside of Belarus that they have to resolve and this is a tough place to do that.
This will be a tight tie over two Legs and there isn't a lot between them, but I think Astana can make home advantage count to give them a narrow lead for the Second Leg.
Austria Vienna v Rosenborg Pick: If this Europa League Play Off Round tie is anything like when Austria Vienna met Rosenborg in the 1993/94 Champions League then the neutrals are in for a treat.
Both of those games were high-scoring, attacking and dramatic matches but both Austria Vienna and Rosenborg are much changed teams now.
Austria Vienna are back in European competition after a couple of years of missing out but they have struggled at home, while Rosenborg might feel they should still be trying to get into the Champions League Group Stage after going out thanks to three injury time goals to APOEL in the Third Qualifying Round.
The Rosenborg away games in recent European games have tended to be high-scoring as they have shown they can score goals, but also seem to be vulnerable defensively. They had also conceded three times in 3 away games in a row before beating Viking 0-2 last time out, while Austria Vienna's home games have produced nine goals in the last couple of games.
I do think both teams will give this First Leg a go and I am looking for goals to be shared out by the two sides. A gut feeling says Rosenborg snap their recent run of 4 consecutive away defeats in Europe to give themselves a platform to move into the Europa League Group Stage, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet in this one either.
Astra v West Ham United Pick: There looks to be a clear shift in how Slaven Bilic views the Europa League this season compared with the attitude last season and so a stronger West Ham United team are expected to take on Astra this time around. Last season a much changed team took the lead in Romania but were eventually beaten 2-1 and a stronger starting line up is expected in this one.
However West Ham United have not been at their best away from home in recent games compared with how well they began last season in the Premier League. The defeat at Chelsea saw a flat performance from The Hammers, but they are not expected to make wholesale changes as they did when they visited Astra last season.
It also has to be said that Astra's recent form is not the most impressive and they have already been disappointed with an early Champions League exit. However they have saved their best performances in European competition for their home games and Astra are unbeaten in 6 home games in Europe which makes odds on quotes for a West Ham United win look short enough.
Add in the fact that West Ham United have lost their last 3 away games in Europe as well as their last 3 away games overall and you have to have the feeling that Slaven Bilic would take a draw to finish the job at home next week. Last season only a James Collins sending off turned the home tie with West Ham United 2-0 up and they will believe they can win at home as long as they don't have a big deficit to overcome.
I do expect a strong West Ham United team to take to the field in this one. Even with that in mind, I think they look short in a match they would be happy to take a draw and I am happy to back Astra on the Asian Handicap where a one goal loss would return half the stakes.
Trencin v Rapid Vienna Pick: The poor home form in European football has cost Trencin their place in the Group Stage of either the Champions League or Europa League in recent seasons. Trencin have had some good results too, but winning over two Legs is a tough proposition, while the side have made a poor start to the new season both domestically and in Europe.
While they are dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League, Rapid Vienna are still the favourites to come through this tie over two Legs. In fact the Austrian side are favourites to win the First Leg and I think they can be backed at odds against.
Rapid Vienna won away games at Ajax, Viktoria Plzen and Dinamo Minsk last season and also drew with Shakhtar Donetsk which shows they are more than capable of matching the wins Legia Warsaw, NK Olimpija and Steaua Bucharest have recorded here over the last twelve months.
The 1-4 win at Austria Vienna would only have improved the confidence for Rapid Vienna while Trencin have had a poor start at home this season with 3 losses in 4 games. At odds against the Austrian side can get the better of Trencin and give themselves a strong platform to progress to the Europa League Group Stage and I will back them to do that.
MY PICKS: Rostov + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Villarreal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astana @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Austria Vienna-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Astra + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
August Update: 3-3, - 0.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 24 June 2016
Copa America 2016 Final Pick (June 25-26)
Copa America 2016 Final Pick- Argentina vs Chile
The Copa America has been a fantastic tournament this year, even accounting for some of the controversies that have affected the results, and it is coming to an end this weekend.The Final is the one most Argentinian fans would likely have wanted as they look for the ultimate revenge over Chile for their Copa America defeat last year. That came via penalties in the Final and even the two wins Argentina have since posted over Chile won't have done enough to erase the memory of yet another defeat in a Final.
It is an important game for Argentina.
Going twenty-three years without a trophy in which time Brazil have won two World Cups and reached the Final of another is not good enough considering the talent Argentina have been able to call upon. Some may argue this is the most talented squad of that time, although I tend to favour the 2002 and 2006 teams that should have done better at those World Cup Finals.
The Final is played on Sunday, but before that we have the Third/Fourth Place Play Off between the United States and Colombia. I am not a big fan of this game simply because you have to try and read between the lines regarding the motivation of players who have missed the big prom and are being consoled with a one person party in their own bedroom.
However it is perhaps a big game for the hosts to underline a successful tournament and show they are ready to prepare for the World Cup in two years time and go into that event as a genuine threat.
Saturday 25th June
United States v Colombia Pick: The third/fourth place Play Off in any tournament is perhaps one of the harder games to work out as you simply don't know what kind of motivation teams are bringing into that match. For the United States as the hosts there has to be a little more behind them to right the wrongs of the performance in the loss to Argentina in the Semi Final, while a third place finish would be a big achievement for Jurgen Klinsmann and his squad.
On the other side of the field will be the disappointed Colombia team who are still in touch of their best finish at a Copa America since winning the competition in 2001. That is a consolation prize at best for Colombia who expected to reach the Final following a positive start to the Copa America and they also have to pick themselves up from the manner in which they lost the Semi Final.
Going behind 0-2 after eleven minutes would be a huge mental blow for Colombia who will feel a better start might have paid off in that Semi Final with Chile. They dominated much of the rest of the game, but Colombia also had to put in a lot of physical work on a heavy pitch which may affect their performance here.
How much energy have the Colombian team got left against a United States team that will have a number of suspended players back in the starting line up?
I am leaning towards the United States to win this game with a little more motivation behind them, but the bigger lean is towards goals, or a lack of them anyway.
The layers are expecting an attacking game, and that may be the case, but I do wonder if Colombia have had a lot of energy sapped in their last game. The United States should look to be a lot more solid at the back than they were in their defeat to Argentina and so this might be a game that has chances but perhaps not the finishing of earlier in the tournament.
4 of the last 6 between these nations has seen under three goals shared out, while one of the exceptions saw the third goal scored in the 87th minute. Earlier in the Group we saw Colombia beat the United States 0-2 and odds against quotes for fewer than three goals looks tempting enough.
Sunday 26th June
Argentina v Chile Pick: Revenge might be on the mind of some of the fans on Sunday as Argentina take on Chile in the Copa America Final for the second time in the last twelve months. The players are likely to be more focused on winning their first major international trophy since 1993 having already earned 'revenge' twice over Chile since that defeat in the Final last year.
The 2-1 win in the Group doesn't highlight the dominance Argentina had in that game, although Chile will say they are more confident now. That defeat meant Chile had lost 5 of 6 games, but they have won their last 4 in the Copa America and have beaten both Mexico and Colombia in the last two Rounds.
Those wins look better than the Argentina wins over Venezuela and the United States, and Chile might feel they are more prepared for the Final.
However Argentina have looked like a team on a mission through the last month and this is a team that missed Lionel Messi in the first win over Chile. Messi is on fire and Argentina have scored at least twice in every game in the Copa America and will feel they have the physical edge having played a day before Chile and the latter also had to deal with a heavy pitch in their Semi Final.
Chile were given a bit of a chasing in that game against Colombia and I am a little worried that they might not have the legs to stay with Argentina. Going forward they should have chances against this backline and I am expecting a better Final than we saw in the 2015 Copa America which ended goalless.
The edge has to be given to Argentina to win this time around though and I think they can do that in normal time. They are scoring plenty of goals and I think the team are focused and relaxed while also winning on the schedule to earn an extra day of rest. As long as Argentina can hold back the mental pressure of winning their first trophy since 1993, I like their chances of doing that in this Centenario competition.
MY PICKS: United States-Colombia Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Argentina to Win @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Semi Final Final: 1-1, + 0.10 Units
Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 0.20 Units
Group Stage Final: 11-12, + 3.45 Units
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