World Cup Qualifier Play Off Picks November 2017 (November 9-15)

This is the final international break the fans will have to sit through until March 2018, but there are a few important fixtures to come in the next week with the final World Cup places up for grabs in six Play Off ties.

With the two Legged Play Off ties being played from Thursday 9th November to Wednesday 15th November I will place all picks from those games in this one thread. During that time we also have a couple of rounds of international friendlies with England, Germany, France and Brazil involved in some big fixtures, although I have to say that at this stage of the season players have withdrawn from those squads to make sure they are ready to go for their club teams ahead of a busy period of games.

Before the next round of Premier League fixtures I should have another short piece about Manchester United after what has been a difficult period. That will be posted around the middle of next week and the next set of Premier League/domestic football picks will be out next Friday ahead of the next weekend round of fixtures.


Croatia v Greece Pick: If Croatia could get on the same page off the field, I am convinced on field performances would reach the desired levels where this team could fulfil their potential as a dark horse going into a major international tournament. Recent years have seen Croatia flatter to deceive far too often and there continues to be an upheaval surrounding the national team that makes it hard for them to produce their best.

That has been highlighted in recent weeks as manager Ante Cacic was sacked with just one Qualifier to play and Croatia in a desperate position in the Group. That sacking came amidst criticism from fans and players alike, and Zlatko Dalic came in to guide Croatia to an impressive 0-2 win in Ukraine to ensure a 2nd place finish in the Group.

There is still work for Dalic to do if Croatia are going to earn a place in the World Cup Finals and they have to be comfortable with the draw for the Play Off. That is not a disrespect to opponents Greece, but Croatia will feel they are the stronger team on paper and will believe they should be winning this tie.

Greece have shown they are back to the defensive shape which helped them win the European Championships thirteen years ago and they proved tough to beat in the World Cup Qualifying Group. This is a team that have not conceded a lot of goals and who earned a 1-1 draw in Belgium which may have been better if not reduced to nine men before conceding an 89th minute equaliser.

The goal for this game has been made clear by Greece manager Michael Skibbe who wants to make sure the Second Leg is where this tie will be won. That means Greece are likely to set up in deep numbers to try and contain Croatia and hope to hit them on the break, as they did to Belgium, but the home team in this one are plenty solid themselves.

Scoring goals in Croatia has been difficult for visitors and you can understand why the layers are offering such short odds on two or fewer goals in this one. It would be a real surprise if there is not plenty to play for when they reconvene in the Second Leg, but I also think Croatia are strong enough at home to earn an advantage for that Leg.

It won't come easy and I would be surprised if Croatia have a big lead to take into the Second Leg. Backing them to win to nil looks short enough when you think Greece have been effective away from home in their Qualifiers in the last couple of years, but having a small interest in the Croatians winning by a single goal margin looks a tempting enough price.


Northern Ireland v Switzerland Pick: There are two different mindsets going into the World Cup Qualifier Play Off for Northern Ireland and Switzerland- while Northern Ireland are pleased to have this opportunity to reach the World Cup Finals in Russia, Switzerland have to be disappointed that they missed out on winning their Qualifying Group in the final round of Qualifiers.

Dealing with that disappointment is going to be the key for Switzerland and being able to focus on a team they will feel they are superior to. On paper you would think Switzerland are probably the better team over two Legs, but Northern Ireland have been overachieving over the last three years and they play with the confidence that has been earned in that time.

Germany may have won at Windsor Park, but that was the first home Qualifier Northern Ireland had lost since September 2013 and that has to be respected. Switzerland have a very strong away record in Qualifiers though and that has to be the main reason they are the favourites to win the First Leg.

Winning in Northern Ireland has not been easy though and I do want to side with the home team in some manner. The way Switzerland were sent into the Play Off has to be a concern for their backers as there could be a negative reaction that has set in, especially in the First Leg away from home.

They have to feel that avoiding defeat would give them a great chance of progressing to the World Cup Finals and Northern Ireland are also keen to stay alive for the Second Leg. It may lead to two teams who are remain a little cautious throughout this First Leg and that may end up seeing them producing a tight game.

The layers are all over that by offering a really short price on there being less than two goals scored in the game. However I am still a little surprised that Northern Ireland have been dismissed as much as they have in this one which means they can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake as a winner if they do end up with a draw.

The draw is a real player here, but Northern Ireland have performed very well at Windsor Park which is something I want to keep on my side by backing the home team on the Asian Handicap.


Sweden v Italy Pick: Out of the four UEFA Play Off ties that are being played, this one looks to be the one that will generate the most interest around Europe. Both Sweden and Italy are the kind of nations that are associated with major international tournaments and both will feel they should be gracing the fields in Russia next summer.

It does feel like the Italian side are the better one and they were simply unfortunate to be in the same Qualifying Group as Spain, while Sweden overachieved to make the Play Off Round. However Sweden should be afforded full respect at home where they won their last 4 Qualifiers including beating a France team that will go to Russia as one of the favourites to win the World Cup.

To be fair, Sweden were beyond a little fortunate to win that game thanks to a comical error from Huge Lloris deep into injury time, but it does mean the First Leg is where their best chance will come to reach the World Cup Finals. I do think Sweden are a tough team to visit and Italy have regularly been the kind of nation that will do what is necessary to make it through matches.

With a Second Leg to come at home, I am not sure Italy will risk too many men forward when a draw would suit them fine. They are a team that have won 7 of 10 away Qualifiers, but wins over the likes of Macedonia, Israel, Norway and Albania are against weaker teams than the Swedish one they face on Friday. The exceptions at Bulgaria, Croatia and Spain shows that Italy can be challenged by stronger home nations and Sweden fit that category.

I was leaning towards backing Sweden on the Asian Handicap, but a full payout only comes if Sweden win the game. That is harder to see when you think Italy have lost 1 of their last 30 away Qualifiers but I also think the away team will want to make sure they are in a position to win this tie in the Second Leg.

It could mean a more cautious performance from Italy in this First Leg and I will have a small interest in this game to finish in a draw.


Honduras v Australia Pick: There are a couple of inter-Confederation World Cup Play Off ties that also need to be decided before the World Cup Finals draw takes place in early December.

One of those sees the CONCACAF Confederation representative take on the Asian Confederation representative which sees Honduras meet Australia over two Legs. This tie actually is the biggest distance between nations in all of the Play Offs still to be played and much will be decided by how well the players cope with the travel time.

At least Australia can send a squad with a plenty of players involved with European teams to cut the travel time for the First Leg. This is going to be an important tie for Australia who have played poorly on their travels in recent World Cup Qualifiers especially as they would want to remain alive for the Second Leg.

Honduras have played well at home and can't be underestimated having played in back to back World Cup Finals, but this is a team that will offer Australia chances. They won just 2 of 5 home games in the final Qualifying Group and Honduras did not keep a clean sheet in any of those games which will offer Australia encouragement despite being without Tim Cahill and Mathew Leckie in the First Leg.

On the other hand Honduras will be confident considering Australia's failure to win in away games against Thailand, Iraq and Syria in their recent World Cup Qualifiers on their travels. Those nations are not as strong as this underrated Honduras team are and the edge has to be given to the home team in the First Leg.

However I can't ignore the fact that Honduras have conceded in their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers including against Canada and Trinidad and Tobago. Honduras have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home Qualifiers and Australia have done the same in 4 of their last 5 away Qualifiers.

The layers are not anticipating a lot of goals in this one, but I do think there is every chance both teams can score in this one. Australia could be dangerous on the counter attack against a Honduras team who do concede goals but who will want to earn a lead in the First Leg, while Australia have looked suspect defensively.

At odds against both teams scoring has to be worth backing here and the Second Leg should still see everything to play for.


New Zealand v Peru Pick: On paper it is understandable why Peru are clear favourites to get the better of a New Zealand side that have struggled when asked to compete with teams from outside of the Oceana Confederation. That was shown up in the Confederations Cup as New Zealand ultimately struggled to maintain the levels needed to win games against the better nations out there.

This Play Off tie could have been so much more difficult for New Zealand as it looked like teams like Argentina and Chile could be the potential opponents. That doesn't mean New Zealand are favourites though and they will need to really perform to their highest level and hope Peru underperform if they have any chance to make it through to the World Cup Finals.

Four years ago New Zealand found Mexico too good in both Legs and that has to be the fear for them here. The layers seem to believe it is a high chance that Peru will win both Legs as they odds on to win in New Zealand, but the travel time across for this First Leg might be the biggest obstacle in the way.

Peru have shown they are going to be tough to beat on their travels judging by their performances in the difficult South American Qualifying Group and playing as well as they did there should be enough for the win here. However I think the layers may have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals which has been priced up at odds against.

This is a game in which New Zealand have to get forward and put themselves in a positive situation for the Second Leg. That should leave gaps for Peru, while New Zealand have shown they can create chances against better teams when challenging Russia, Mexico and Portugal at the Confederations Cup.

They should be able to create against Peru, but the latter will feel they can get forward and score goals even though Paolo Guerrero is suspended. Before the 0-0 draw in Argentina, Peru had scored twice in 3 away Qualifiers in a row, while they had conceded in 31 away Qualifiers before that draw in Argentina.

Both teams could score in this one and I would not be surprised if the situation of the First Leg leads to a few more openings as New Zealand push for a lead and Peru try and hit them on the counter. At the price backing at least three goals to be shared out looks too big to ignore.


Denmark v Republic of Ireland Pick: This is likely to be the Play Off tie that both Denmark and Republic of Ireland would have been happy to accept prior to the Play Off draw and both teams have to be confident of their chances of progressing.

The key for the Republic of Ireland is going to be making sure the Second Leg back in Dublin is where the tie is won and that means making things difficult for their hosts in the First Leg. That has been a feature of the way the Irish have been set out in away games since Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane took over the reigns of the national team.

It has proven to be an effective tactic as Ireland have produced big wins in Austria and Wales in this Qualifying Group, while they have also earned draws in Poland and Serbia in the last three years. Those are all the kind of results which will give Ireland plenty of confidence to take to Denmark with those nations comparable to the one they will face in this Play Off tie.

Denmark have shown improvement in recent games which has to be respected. In particular the 4-0 win over Poland in September shows what Denmark are capable of when they get everything right, but the Danes are also a team that have been inconsistent in recent home Qualifiers.

The loss to Montenegro and draw with Romania in home Qualifiers in this Group as well as the home draws with Albania and Sweden in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers shows Denmark are not an unbeatable team and makes their odds on quotes look plenty short. Denmark were also knocked out in the Euro 2016 Play Offs while the Republic of Ireland got through that Round against Bosnia-Herzegovina which may give the away team confidence of earning a result over two Legs.

It is a very tight Play Off tie and I don't think there will be a lot between Denmark and Ireland over the two Legs. Denmark probably have the better players on paper, but Ireland are a very effective team that comes together to be greater than the sum of their parts.

With a close tie anticipated, I am not sure Denmark deserve to be a short favourite to win the First Leg and I like backing Ireland with the start on the Asian Handicap. Ireland have shown resilience to suggest they can get something here and wins over Austria and Wales away from home in the Qualifying Group makes them much more appealing to back than the Danes in the First Leg.

The two Legs should be very close and I can't see Ireland losing by more than a single goal margin if they are to lose here, so taking the visitors with the start looks to be the call.


Switzerland v Northern Ireland Pick: There was some controversy attached to Switzerland's 0-1 win at Northern Ireland in the First Leg of this Play Off tie, but that shouldn't hide the fact that they had much of the running on the day.

With better composure in the final third Switzerland would have likely won fairly comfortably at Windsor Park and this Second Leg is likely to have a similar feel. I don't imagine Northern Ireland will change their tactics as they try and frustrate Switzerland and catch them on the counter.

That can be the plan for at least the first hour as long as Northern Ireland haven't conceded another goal, but at some point they will have to come out and search for the away goal given up at Windsor Park. That may make things a little easier for Switzerland when it comes to creating chances in the final third.

Goals have been a problem for Northern Ireland away from home having failed to score in 3 of their 5 away Qualifiers in the World Cup Group. That is likely to be a big problem against a Switzerland team who have conceded just 2 goals in 5 home games in their own World Cup Qualifying Group and kept 4 clean sheets in that time.

Backing Switzerland to win to nil could be a good play, but I think it may pay off to back them to win this by a relatively comfortable margin. I believe Switzerland can't keep missing the opportunities they are creating and at some point Northern Ireland will have to commit men forward to try and get back into the tie which could see them picked off when the shape is lost.

I will look for Switzerland to book their World Cup Finals spot while covering the Asian Handicap in this one.

MY PICKS: 09/11 Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.30 Stan James (1 Unit)
09/11 Northern Ireland + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
10/11 Sweden-Italy Draw @ 3.20 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
10/11 Honduras-Australia Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
11/11 New Zealand-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
11/11 Republic of Ireland + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
12/11 Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (August 26-28)

Last August was pretty miserable for the season picks and, despite the recovery over the next eight months to end with a profitable campaign, I was desperate to avoid that scenario this time around.

The Arsenal fightback from 2-0 down in the last eight minutes of the game against Everton was frustrating to say the least, but this weekend was the first shoots of recovery.

There are two more 'matchdays' in August to boost that recovery, although the Capital One Cup can be a minefield to negotiate and I will have to tread carefully. The Champions League and Europa League Group Stage will be finalised this week too and the draw for that stage takes place later this week, not that I'll have any interest from a fan perspective.


I am still personally on my own 'recovery' timeline from the weekend activities, but hopefully these picks will be making me feel a lot better going forward.


Celtic v Maribor Pick: The 1-1 result from the game in Maribor last week has given Celtic the inside track in moving through to the Group Stage and taking advantage of the bad luck Legia Warsaw suffered in the last round.

Celtic caused Maribor plenty of problems, but also conceded a poor goal from a defensive standpoint. However, the away goal has given the edge and returning to Celtic Park for this game rather than Murrayfield gives them more of an advantage as far as I am concerned.

It won't be easy for Celtic who are coming off a loss when Ronny Deila rested ten starters from last week at Inverness, but the Scottish Champions should be able to ride the home crowd to a positive result.

Maribor could also be punished if they begin to push forward when chasing the game too so Celtic to cover the one goal Asian Handicap is the call.


BATE Borisov v Slovan Bratislava Pick: BATE Borisov have battled their way into a strong position to earn their place in the Champions League Group Stagae and the 1-1 draw away from home sets them up for this second leg.

BATE are in a slightly awkward position of knowing that a clean sheet will put them through no matter if they win or draw this evening, but there are positive sounds being made that the team will look to win the game. The side also snapped their 4 game run without a home in the Champions League with a convincing 3-1 win over Debrecen in the last round and BATE will feel they proved enough last week that they can cope with Slovan Bratislava.

The Slovakian Champions are unlikely to be a pushover despite 1 win from their last 7 away games in the Champions League and they are also in a tough position of needing to score, but trying not to be overly gung-ho about it.

This is a huge game for both teams with financial boosts the Champions League Group Stage can provide, but the edge seems to be with BATE Borisov and I believe they win this game as they book a place with the elite of European football.


MK Dons v Manchester United Pick: There are expected to be wholesale changes at Manchester United and I am not talking about before the end of the transfer window this time. The League Cup might have been a small priority for the club in recent years, but a good Cup run may give this team the confidence they are sorely lacking, especially in the absence of any European football.

It hasn't been the start that some United fans would have been hoping for, but those who have put so much stock into pre-season FRIENDLY results are probably the most surprised. The rest of us have known about the limitations of the squad, but even the most pessimistic of supporters would have been expecting more than 1 point from League games against Swansea and Sunderland.

What has been even more disappointing is the absolute dross on the pitch that was blamed on David Moyes last season, but shown little sign of changing this time around. Earning a win, even against limited opposition that MK Dons should represent, might give United a timely boost going into the weekend.

The MK Dons have nothing to lose to be fair and they have won 2 of their 3 home games in all competitions this season, and they can expected to test a back three for United that will have changes and are still becoming accustomed to a new formation.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the MK Dons threaten a surprise and score in this game, but I think Manchester United earn their first win of this new season in a game where both teams hit the back of the net.


Arsenal v Besiktas Pick: While I do think Arsenal are going to prove too good and book their place in the Group Stage, their defensive issues to open the season would be a concern, especially if Besiktas score first and have something to defend.

Aaron Ramsey and Olivier Giroud are both big misses, especially with the two players both scoring at the weekend at Everton, but there should be enough attacking talent for Arsenal to win this game.

The Asian Handicap did have me leaning both ways because of the Arsenal defence which has struggled for clean sheets and the amount of chances Besiktas created last week. However, if the Gunners score first, they will be allowed to play the counter-attacking game as Besiktas press for an equaliser as the game develops and I think that will help Arsenal put this one away and win the game by a couple of goals at least.


Athletic Bilbao v Napoli Pick: This game has been set up from the first leg and could be the most entertaining one of the night with both teams likely to be set up in attacking formations. Athletic Bilbao are a side that don't really know how to play another way, while Napoli know they need to score at least once if they are to make it through to the Group Stage of the Champions League.

The game would also really open up no matter who scores first and there should be chances at both ends of the pitch with every reason to also believe this game could go the distance.

However, I have a feeling a winner is going to be decided in normal time with both teams a little fitter than last week and both likely to employ attacking formations. Both will counter as well as the space opens up, although the 1-1 draw is a fear as they could settle for that in fear of losing the time and instead opt for extra time.

Still, I do think there will be goals in this one and will back there being at least three at odds against.


Bayer Leverkusen v Copenhagen Pick: Bayer Leverkusen just have to avoid defeat to book their place in the Champions League Group Stage and even a 0-1 or 1-2 loss would be enough to see them through. However, I would be surprised if they wanted to lose the momentum of the early season and I expect them to back up their win over Borussia Dortmund from the weekend.

The team clearly have a few goals in the side after scoring 11 in the first 3 games they have played, although the number in each game has been going down in each of those results. I still expect Bayer Leverkusen to expose the Copenhagen defence that has conceded 8 goals in their last 3 games, all at home, and the feeling is that Leverkusen book their place in the next stage with some style.

I am not at all suggesting Leverkusen will be pushing on recklessly now they have a lead from the first leg, but the attacking style should still pay dividends during the 90 minute game and I believe the German side win by a couple of goals at least.

MY PICKS: Celtic - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
BATE Borisov @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)

August Update: 4-14, - 14.40 Units (30 Units Staked, - 48% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (May 13-16)

The domestic football season is about two weeks away from finishing off and the attention will soon turn to the World Cup in Brazil which begins in a little over a month from today.

During this week, we will see the Europa League Final and also a couple of the Play Off Finals in the lower Leagues in England set for the week on Saturday.


It was a surprisingly tough final day in the Premier League for the picks, although it was a late goal from a Fulham youngster and a Sergio Aguero miss from two yards with the goal gaping that prevented it being a very good day.

The good news is that there wasn't too much damage done to the totals for the month thanks to Derby County's success in the second leg of their Play Off Semi Final.


Leyton Orient v Peterborough United Pick: I picked the first leg to have some goals and a little better finishing from Leyton Orient would have certainly seen at least three goals scored, but the 1-1 draw will also make the home team a strong favourite to move through to the League One Play Off Final.

However, Peterborough United have proved their capabilities against Leyton Orient already this season by winning at Brisbane Road and they are a dangerous team that can't be under-estimated considering the amount of goals they do score.

The weather in London might bog down the pitch which could reduce the chances for goals, but these teams love getting forward and I would be surprised if there isn't at least three scored tonight.

I also considered picking Leyton Orient to win a game where both teams score which looks a huge price considering the way games have gone when these teams have met this season, but I am going to stick with just picking the home team to win at odds against.


Rotherham United v Preston North End Pick: If it wasn't for a truly special goal from Joe Garner in the first leg of this Semi Final, I don't know if I would have fancied Preston North End to break down Rotherham United and I believe the home team in this second leg will prevail.

Rotherham have been playing very well at home in recent games and they do score plenty of goals which could make it tough for Preston North End to keep up with them.

The fact that Preston have come off the boil to the extent of losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the League doesn't bode well for them. However, Preston can be tough to beat and that does raise some doubts about backing the home team.

On the other hand, Preston have been beaten at Peterborough United, Wolves, Brentford and Swindon Town on their travels this season and those teams were four of the top seven in the campaign. Goals also change teams approach, especially in a close tie like this one and I have a feeling that Rotherham United can score first and then counter-attack their way into the League One Play Off Final next weekend.

MY PICKS: Leyton Orient @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Rotherham United @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

May Update: 9-12, - 0.60 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.58% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2012

I didn't post up my picks for Saturday's games in the Divisional Round as I wasn't overly convinced about either, but it turned out they went 1-1 (picked Denver on the spread and over 45 points in the San Francisco game).

Both games surprised me yesterday- I was completely bamboozled by John Fox's decision to NOT let Peyton Manning throw the ball and engineer a late drive to put the game to bed, although it wasn't the Head Coach's fault that Raheem Moore took the worst angle possible as a Safety in allowing Baltimore to tie the game with 31 seconds left.

I also thought the San Francisco game would be much closer, but I guess Colin Kaepernick had seen what Joe Webb was able to do against the Green Bay Packers last week and he just took it to the next level. Kaepernick was brilliant, making some clutch throws and the correct decision when to run and when to put the ball into the hands of Frank Gore.

The dominant performance of the San Francisco team also confirmed that Jim Harbaugh was right to make the change from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick and I am beginning to think this will be the team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season.

Harbaugh Bowl is still a possibility in the big game, but I am still holding sway with New England in the AFC, particularly as they will have home field advantage in both games left if they win out.


Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I really am not a big fan of when one team is being favoured in all quarters, yet they are still being given points as the layers are generally not silly people.

However, there are so many elements of this game that are favouring the Seattle Seahawks that I have to say the points are too appealing to ignore.

Seattle are going to be able to run the ball against the Atlanta Falcons and they should be able to keep Russell Wilson in short yardage situations throughout the game. Marshawn Lynch and Wilson both provide the ammunition to run the ball straight at Atlanta and the Falcons have not been good against the rush all season.

The lack of pressure they get from their Defensive Line will be another issue for Atlanta and Wilson will have time to find receivers downfield and the Quarter Back has looked after the ball enough to think Seattle are going to score at least 21-24 points in this one.

That'll put the pressure on Matt Ryan who has yet to win a Play Off game and who has seen his team beaten heavily in their last 2 Play Off appearances against the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants.

Ryan is going to be under pressure from a Seattle Defense that has got a lot of pressure on opposition Quarter Backs, while the match up again is in the Seahawks favour. The Seattle Secondary is capable of taking away Roddy White and Julio Jones just enough to force Atlanta to settle for field goals or having to punt the ball away and that is mainly because they will become one-dimensional with their Offense.

It is possible to find some running lanes against Seattle, but Michael Turner may not be the Running Back to expose those flaws and that will mean Matt Ryan is left in long yardage situations and have to move the chains with his arm.

I can see a big turnover going in favour of Seattle in this one and I'll take the field goal worth of points in this one. However, I am limiting my interest simply because this isn't the best spot in terms of time and having to play on the East Coast for Seattle.


Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: I hate big spreads in the Play Offs and I guess I haven't learned my lesson from the Denver Broncos game last night as I am going to back the New England Patriots to win this one and cover the 9.5 point spread.

This pick isn't solely because New England are at home where they absolutely smashed Houston to bits in the regular season, but mainly because I think the Patriots are going to be very tough to stop when they have the ball and they have too many weapons for the Texans Defense.

For Houston to have any chance in the game, they have to get Arian Foster going in a similar manner to how he went off against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. The whole Houston Offense is based on the fact that they can get the run established and that opens up the play-action for Matt Schaub, a Quarter Back that can struggle when the pressure is on him to drop back and find receivers in regular formations.

The problem for the Texans is that New England have been very stout against the run this season and Aqib Talib is good enough to at least restrict Andre Johnson in the passing game. If those two players do not get it going, Houston just aren't going to keep up with the Patriots.

I am expecting Tom Brady to dissect this Houston Defense again, especially with Rob Gronkowski back in the line up. While Houston are healthier on that side of the ball, New England have enough weapons that cause match up problems, particularly the two Tight Ends, and they should be able to move the chains fairly comfortably.

The Patriots also have a solid rushing game to complement Brady and they will find running room if Houston decide they are going to drop men into coverage to stop the aerial threat. This should all in all lead to more touchdowns rather than field goals and I like the Patriots to cover.


MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

English Play Off Finals

I am going to use this one post for my English Play Off Finals that are to take place over the next 8 days starting with the Championship game on May 19th.


Blackpool v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14301-Blackpool-v-West-Ham.htm)

Huddersfield v Sheffield United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14344-Huddersfield-v-Sheffield-United.htm)


MY PICKS: West Ham to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Huddersfield-Sheffield United Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)