ATP Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th November)

The second Group will complete another round of matches on Wednesday and there is every chance the Semi Final lineup will really begin to take shape by the end of play.

The second match is going to feature the World Number 2 and Italian Number 1, and that is the match where the selection from Day 4 will come.

In the Day Session we do have a battle between Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime, but there is just too much uncertainty around both players to be comfortable in making any selection.

At the time of writing, there still has to be some doubts that Auger-Aliassime will even take to the court having looked completely hobbled in the defeat to Jannik Sinner. He is giving himself as much time as possible to recover, but that makes a selection impossible to make with doubts all about the Canadian.

You could recommend his opponent to get the better of a less than 100% Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton has not been himself since pulling out of the US Open with an injury. That looked like being a season ender, but he has played some tennis without the same level of success since that moment and Shelton is another who may be thinking about Melbourne in January more than having a real belief of having a deep run here.

That is especially the case having lost the opening match against Alexander Zverev and the factors just add up to make it a 'no pick' contest.

You can read my thoughts on the second Singles match scheduled for the Night Session below.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Right off the bat you have to feel this is a very big spread against a potentially very dangerous opponent, but the World Number 2 is going to have the mental advantage having crushed Alexander Zverev for the loss of a single game in the Paris Masters Semi Final a little over a week ago.

That is the most one-sided win in the recent rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev and the latter is always going to believe that his serve offers him a route into any game. He will certainly expect to have more success with that shot in this Group match at the ATP Finals, although the recent numbers in matches between Zverev and Sinner have suggested a big win for the latter was going to come sooner than later.

This is going to be the fourth meeting between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the 2025 season and all of the previous three have been on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner has faced just 4 Break Points in the previous three matches and all of those came in the sole match played between the two in the Vienna Final last month. Only one of those Break Points ended up with the point being won by Alexander Zverev, although that cost Jannik Sinner a set in that Final.

At the same time, Jannik Sinner has created 27 Break Points against the Alexander Zverev serve- he had been wasteful in the first two meetings in Melbourne and Vienna with four breaks of serve from 18 Break Point chances generated, but Jannik Sinner was ruthless in Paris and converted 6/9 in that Semi Final.

Over the course of the season, Jannik Sinner has been one of the top return players and his Break Point conversion rate is ranked in the top three. That made it a matter of time before all of the chances he has been creating against the Alexander Zverev serve would show up on the scoreboard and the Italian is likely to have too much for the World Number 3 in this Group match.

In the last twelve months, Alexander Zverev has had a hard lesson when it comes to competing with the top players on the Tour- in matches against top five Ranked opponents, his service numbers have really dipped, but the biggest worry for a player hoping to compete for a Grand Slam is that he has broken in around 8% of return games played.

This has put a huge amount of pressure on Zverev and Jannik Sinner is likely going to do the same in front of the home fans.

Alexander Zverev did beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group Stage of the ATP Finals here twelve months ago, but had lost six straight matches to top five Ranked opponents before beating Ben Shelton on Sunday. He is going to have to find another level to compete with the defending Champion in this second Group match, although Alexander Zverev will likely remain in a pretty good spot to progress with a single match left to come against Felix Auger-Aliassime (or a replacement if the Canadian is still struggling with his injury).

If he serves at his very best level, Alexander Zverev may keep this close on the scoreboard and this spread will look way to wide.

However, the World Number 3 will have exorcise some mental demons after the embarrassing loss in the French capital just a few days ago and Jannik Sinner may just do enough to find the breaks needed to cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 12th November)

This is the rare tournament in which a player is back out on court just a couple of days after a loss and the two defeated players from Day 1 will open Day 3 in a bid to keep their Singles dream alive.

Another defeat does not necessarily mean the end, but it is very difficult to come through a Group after losing twice and so there is considerable pressure on Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur.

Both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz have produced a win already in the Group and they will be looking to secure passage into the Semi Final without being in a pressurised situation in their final match.

Both matches look pretty good on paper, even at the end of a very long season for all competing in Turin.

Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: This is not quite an official elimination match, but the two losing players from Day 1 meet in the second round robin of Group matches knowing that another loss would make it very difficult to progress. Losing matches is one thing, but losing in straight sets has put both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur in a difficult position as they look to bounce back from the opening defeats.

Neither player will be feeling that good about their level of performance in the first matches played in Turin, but Alex De Minaur may feel he has lost to the player that is likely to dominate the Group.

On the other side, Daniil Medvedev's defeat to Taylor Fritz has left him in a more precarious position and there is little doubt that he has to show more desire than he did when falling into a losing position in the opening match. The antics on the court have gotten some fans a little agitated when they watch Medvedev play, but he is not someone afraid to show what he is thinking and the body language was not very good on Sunday.

It has been a tough year all around for Daniil Medvedev and you do have to question how much desire he has left, even if there is still a passage through to the World Tour Finals Knock Out Rounds. He was competitive against Fritz, but the mentality looked a little fragile and things spiralled away from Daniil Medvedev, which has to be a concern in this match up.

The head to head does read in favour of Daniil Medvedev, but he is facing an opponent in Alex De Minaur who is unlikely to give points away. The sole meeting between the players in 2024 was at the French Open and it was the Australian who came through in four sets to reach the Quarter Final, while Alex De Minaur is someone who would have the hard courts down as his favourite surface.

Alex De Minaur will know he needs to be a lot better than he was in the defeat to Jannik Sinner on Sunday, but he has shown some decent form on the indoor European hard courts in the build up to the World Tour Finals. He has won seven of the eleven matches played since the US Open, although the De Minaur numbers have dipped considerably behind serve and return.

This should mean Daniil Medvedev has the edge, although his own form has been inconsistent and the player has not looked completely happy being on the court. That does lessen enthusiasm for backing him to bounce back and you can see a situation where Daniil Medvedev barely goes through the motions if this match begins to get away from him.

However, unlike the first match, Alex De Minaur is going to offer up more chances on the return for Daniil Medvedev and that may just keep him interested. There should be plenty of Break Points for both considering the issue Medvedev may be dealing with at the moment, but the World Number 4 has the capabilities of bouncing back with his experience of the format perhaps a telling factor too.

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz over 21.5 games: Both of these players opened their World Tour Finals with a victory, although the overall ambitions may still be a little different for Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz.

The World Number 1, Australian Open and US Open Champion, and home favourite Jannik Sinner has to be targeting the title having reached the Final twelve months ago before going down to Novak Djokovic. Winning the Shanghai Masters allowed Sinner to spend a bit of time away from the Tour and he looked fresh and motivated when beating Alex De Minaur with little fuss a couple of days ago.

His opponent also earned a straight sets win, but Taylor Fritz has made it clear that his main ambition is to outperform his World Ranking by reaching the Semi Final at this end of year tournament. Some may feel that is an underwhelming goal, but Fritz has to be given credit for his honesty and there may be a good opportunity to reach the Final with the way the other Group could potentially shape up.

Despite the opening win, Taylor Fritz knows he likely needs at least one more and even picking up a set in a losing effort would put him in a strong position to progress. Of course, the player nor his camp should be thinking about nothing more than their bid to earn the upset against an opponent who beat Taylor Fritz in the US Open Final back in September.

In the main it was a dominant win for Jannik Sinner with Taylor Fritz not serving as well as he would have wanted in that US Open Final. So much of the American's tennis is based around his serve and he will need to be a lot better in this Group match if he is going to give Sinner something different to think about.

The last two professional meetings between these players have both ended in wins for Jannik Sinner and both on the hard courts so you can understand why he is such a big favourite ahead of this match. However, Taylor Fritz may feel he can dictate rallies as long as he can his marks on the serve and he has shown that he can make enough returns to use scoreboard pressure to try and break through the Jannik Sinner wall in front of him.

The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will win and move to the brink of making it through to the Semi Final, but Taylor Fritz can be more competitive than he was at Flushing Meadows. The indoor conditions should help and both players are capable of serving well enough to help this match surpass the total games line set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev to Win @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.64 Units (4 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 12th)

The last few weeks has very much been a watching brief for me as far as the Tennis tournaments go and that has been the case in the last couple of years after the US Open.

Instead of having Picks from the WTA Finals, the lack of respect the organisation had for their top eight players meant a late venue selection and none of the players were particularly happy with the conditions in Cancun. You have to hope that better is going to be provided for the top WTA players in twelve months time, but it also meant there was too much uncertainty for me to really make any selections with any real confidence.

Things should be much more settled on the ATP side of the Tour with the World Tour Finals to be played in Turin.

Conditions here were pretty quick a year ago, so that is something to keep an eye on, while it should be a fantastic week for the fans in Turin with the quality of matches expected in each session.

And they also have another home player making the top eight and looking to make a mark at a big tournament, which should keep the fans engaged.

Jannik Sinner - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: He won the ATP Finals in 2019, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had little success in this tournament ever since it was moved from London to Turin. Overall the performances have been strong enough to keep Stefanos Tsitsipas inside the top eight of the World Rankings, but he has yet to win a Grand Slam title and there will be a slight concern that his window is closing.

One of the main reasons that some will think that is that the Greek player has produced a 2-8 record against top ten Ranked opponents over the last year. Ultimately you are going to have to beat at least one of those and possibly two in order to win a Grand Slam title, especially with the World Ranking down at Number 6.

In that time, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a 2-4 record in hard court matches with his sole victory coming in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals last year. Confidence will have been gained from the fact that one of those wins came just prior to this tournament beginning in Turin at the Paris Masters against Alexander Zverev.

Strong serving will give Tsitsipas a chance in this tough looking Group, but his return game is not quite up to the standard he would have hoped on the hard courts. In each of the last two seasons, Stefanos Tsitsipas has won just 34% of return points played on the surface and he has broken in just shy of 19% of return games, but those returning numbers get considerably worse when facing top 10 opponents.

A couple of years ago Jannik Sinner was able to earn his place in the Tour Finals as an alternate, but he was not quite able to do enough to play in Turin last year. This year the Italian has improved again and will be well backed by the home fans, while the World Number 4 will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles next year.

Titles have been won in Beijing and Vienna since the end of the US Open when Jannik Sinner was beaten by Alexander Zverev in an incredibly competitive match.

He also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas, although Sinner earned a little bit of revenge with a win over this rival on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam. In both matches this year, Jannik Sinner has been the better player against Stefanos Tsitsipas and that underlines his improvement since losing to the Greek player at the Australian Open in 2022.

In those matches this year, Sinner has dominated the Break Point chances and he has a serve that should be good enough to contain the Stefanos Tsitsipas return threat.

A big difference between the players is that Jannik Sinner breaks in 29% of return games played on hard courts compared with the Tsitsipas mark already mentioned. It is also telling that Sinner has a 7-3 record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts in 2023 and, once again, the Italian has been much better in his returning in those matches compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas.

You can never tell how these indoor courts will react early in a tournament like the ATP Finals, but the edge has to be with Jannik Sinner with the home fans expected to be out to support him. While Stefanos Tsitsipas has obvious qualities as a player, the return game has long held him back and it could be the case in this opening Group match, one that could be pivotal to the eventual outcome with World Number 1 Novak Djokovic amongst the foursome.

Novak Djokovic-Holger Rune Over 21.5 games: After coming so close to defending his Wimbledon crown, Novak Djokovic did pick up the final Grand Slam title of the season in New York City and won three of the four majors played this season. He is now very close to setting a new mark for number of Grand Slam titles won by either a male or female player and not many would back against the World Number 1 doing that during the course of 2024.

He will likely go into most tournaments as the favourite and the defending Champion in Turin will be tough to beat here.

As Novak Djokovic has been reminding his rivals, he has not lost a match since the Wimbledon Final all the way back in July and has picked up a number of titles in that time. However, he was tested in the Paris Masters and had to dig deep to win a number of matches in that tournament, including against Holger Rune, the opening opponent for Novak Djokovic in this Group.

Three sets were needed and Holger Rune served very well on the day as he continues to show that he enjoys the match up with Novak Djokovic. The latter beat Rune pretty easily at the US Open in 2021, but the Dane is a much improved player now and their next three matches have all needed a deciding set.

Holger Rune has won two of those, including on an indoor hard court in Paris in 2022 before Novak Djokovic earned revenge earlier this month.

There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is still the superior player and he has created a load more Break Points in their matches against one another than Holger Rune has managed to create. However, Rune is a player that feels he belongs at the highest level and that has seen him play the big points efficiently and do just enough to win a couple of those matches.

Even when they met earlier this month, Novak Djokovic only faced Break Points in one game and he was broken, while he had Break Points in four games but could only force the breakthrough once.

Overall it has been a down year for Holger Rune on the hard courts, despite cracking the top eight, and he has not shown much form in the second half of the year. That was until this past month on the indoor hard courts as Holger Rune's partnership with Boris Becker has begun with some positives.

Having Becker in his corner is a big help considering all of the time the German has had working with Novak Djokovic and that should help Holger Rune.

However, it should be said that Novak Djokovic has been playing at an incredible level on the hard courts in 2023 and you have to believe that will eventually show up in these head to head matches with Holger Rune. The energy and athleticism of the younger player has perhaps made things more difficult though and Holger Rune may be able to string together enough successes to see this match move over the total line.

Much will depend on Holger Rune serving as well as he did in the main in their meeting in Paris a few days ago, but the World Number 8 can do that and at least play his part in a competitive opener to this tournament.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic-Holger Rune Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 10 Picks 2023 (November 9-13)

The NFL regular season brings plenty of drama and this perhaps contributes to what feels like a very quick run to the PlayOffs.

The wait for a season to begin certainly feels a lot longer than when we get into the season and somehow we have already moved into the second half of the regular season.

At this point the trade deadline is behind us and the Divisions are really beginning to take shape.

Teams that are perhaps thinking about the NFL Draft and earning a strong position for top Picks, while others are focusing on Seeding in the PlayOffs.

At this stage it is a time to put down my current top five teams and have a few thoughts about some of the other contenders that will be chasing Super Bowl rings and not merely trying to make the PlayOffs.

1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)- there are certainly some questions that still need to be answered by the Philadelphia Eagles, but they are the team to beat in the NFC after another tight victory over rivals Dallas in Week 9. If the Defensive unit can just raise their levels slightly, the Eagles will be very difficult to shake off with home field advantage through the post-season if they can secure the top Seed in the Conference.

2) Baltimore Ravens (7-2)- a strong Defensive unit is being backed up by an improving Offense and the Baltimore Ravens look very good. Some will feel this team is still flying under the radar, but they can come to the fore with some tough Divisional games coming up where they can impress.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)- another team that is still improving the Offensive side of the ball, but who have big wins over the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars even while Patrick Mahomes and company are not at full tilt.

4) Detroit Lions (6-2)- this is a good looking team, but you do have to feel that home field advantage is going to be very important for them if they are going to make a big January impact.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)- they look the best by some distance in the AFC South, and this is a Jaguars team led by a Super Bowl winning Head Coach and a Quarter Back who has won plenty of big games at the College level. Trevor Lawrence will need the Defensive unit to step up if the Jaguars are going to make a Super Bowl run, but this is a team with more experience than some may believe.

Things can change very quickly in the NFL, but at the halfway mark those teams stand out.

As a Miami Dolphins fan, it is disappointing to not find room for them in the current top five, but the loss in Germany to the Kansas City Chiefs has maintained a worrying trend.

Crushing bad teams has been impressive, but the Dolphins are now 0-3 when facing the Chiefs, Eagles and Buffalo Bills this season and so a deep PlayOff run looks unlikely right now. At some point they have to find a way to get the Offensive rhythm going against the better teams, especially as the Defensive unit is likely to improve, but Miami have struggled to really find the plays to hurt the better teams and their struggles to put up more than 20 points in those games is a real concern.

Mentioning the Bills, they are also missing out after being outplayed on Sunday Night Football by the Cincinnati Bengals. The injuries have hurt the Defensive unit and Josh Allen has not looked in full health so there are questions to answer for Buffalo, who may be concerned that their recent window of trying to win a Super Bowl is closing.

Teams like Cincinnati and the San Francisco 49ers are vastly experienced in January and both are expected to enter the top five in the weeks ahead once they get healthier. The Bengals are looking better in that department, but the 49ers are banged up, which has been the main reason for the three losses in a row.

The Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns may yet have something to say before the season closes, but they have much to prove in January and potentially will have to win three road games to earn a Super Bowl place.

The last international game of the NFL season will be played this week in Germany and there is soon going to be an announcement whether Spain or Brazil are going to be hosting a game next season.

The last few Bye Weeks are coming up and that is usually a key sign that teams can begin to think about the post-season, while Seeding in both Conferences will be fought for right through to Week 18.

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Pick: For the last time in 2023, the NFL will have an international series game taking place as the New England Patriots (2-7) 'host' the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) in Frankfurt. Both of these teams have had a difficult season, although more was expected from the Patriots rather than Colts.

Instead it is Indianapolis who will still harbour some PlayOff ambitions past the halfway mark of the season, even with a losing record. After beating the Carolina Panthers, the Colts are not facing the toughest of remaining schedules and they may just feel that a 5-3 ending to the season will be good enough to earn a Wild Card spot.

Things have gone much differently for the New England Patriots, who have the fewest wins in the AFC, and things have been so tough that there is even some suggestion that Head Coach Bill Belichick will lose his job at the end of the season. For a long time this was considered Belichick's job for as long as he wanted, but the era since Tom Brady left Foxboro has been incredibly poor and the Head Coach's reputation has been dented.

Relying on Mac Jones at Quarter Back has not helped and the Patriots have never found the right player to replace Tom Brady.

The entire Offensive unit have stagnated and it says plenty that the Patriots have only scored more than 20 points once this season and only managed 17 against the Washington Commanders in Week 9. An upcoming Bye Week might have come too late for New England to fix their issues and become competitive this season and so the rumours and reports are likely to increase in frequency between now and the end of the year.

A positive for New England is that the Offensive Line has been able to create holes to rip off some big gains on the ground in recent weeks as they have tried to do their part in helping out the Quarter Back. This is a game where the Patriots should be able to establish the run against this Indianapolis Defensive Line, but they will have to keep this one competitive to make sure they are not being forced to rely on the Mac Jones arm.

The Patriots Offensive Line has offered up protection to Mac Jones, but injuries in his Receiving unit means it has been difficult for the Quarter Back to make consistent throws. They are also going to be facing a Colts Secondary that will look to jump routes and make big plays of their own, so it is key for the Patriots to run the ball and not have Jones feeling the pressure is all on him.

Making big plays through the air would have been the ambition of the New England Secondary too, having given up plenty of yards in recent games, but that looks tough without JC Jackson who has been left at home for disciplinary reasons. Gardner Minshew has looked every bit a back up Quarter Back since coming into the line up for Anthony Richardson and perhaps pushing the boat out too far at times, but this is a Secondary that is seriously banged up and the veteran should be able to exploit that.

It helps that Minshew can simply hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss who have been grinding teams down with their one-two punch out of the backfield. The Patriots Defensive Line are not an easy team to run the ball against, but Taylor and Moss are playing really well and the Colts Offensive Line have looked strong when they have been asked to block for the two Running Backs.

Establishing the run, and using Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss as safety blankets in the passing game, should see Gardner Minshew moving the chains with the Colts Offensive unit. Avoiding the big mistakes is always the question mark around Minshew and his level of performance, although even this veteran should be able to exploit a team that Sam Howell did in Week 9.

New England's Defensive problems have just increased the pressure on their Head Coach, while the team is 1-5 against the spread as the underdog this season. The spread is perhaps lower than it might have been because of the mistakes made by Gardner Minshew, but he can out-perform Mac Jones in Germany and lead the Colts to a victory and getting back to 0.500 before their own Bye Week.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: This is a non-Conference game, but in Week 10 of the season, there are always some importance attached to any game played. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) may share the same record as the Tennessee Titans (3-5), but they are much closer to their Divisional leaders in the NFC South and there is still a genuine hope that they can challenge for a PlayOff spot in their Conference.

Doing the same will be much tougher for the Tennessee Titans in the basement of the AFC South and so a decision has been made at Quarter Back to turn the keys over to Will Levis in place of veteran Ryan Tannehill, who is going to be leaving Tennessee at the end of the season. The Titans have already seen enough from Levis to believe he could be a franchise player fro them at the most important position in US Sports and they will be looking to see how he can attack a Secondary that was embarrassed by a rookie last week.

Tampa Bay could not stop CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans and lost a game in which the home team did not even have a reliable kicker through the second half. That defeat was down to the Buccaneers Secondary and this feels like a game in which Will Levis can really write some strong headlines of his own.

It helps that the Quarter Back can lean on Derrick Henry and the big Tennessee Offensive Line and there have been some positive signs from them as a unit in recent games. Being able to establish the run is going to be challenging for the Titans considering the strength Tampa Bay have up front, but having a competent Quarter Back who has already impressed through two games may just open things up for Henry, rather than the other way around as has become the norm for Tennessee fans to see.

Will Levis has already built a decent rapport with DeAndre Hopkins and the issues Tampa Bay are having in the Secondary should mean a strong outing for the rookie. The Offensive Line have not been as strong when it comes to pass protection as run blocking, but Levis can move around and the threat of Derrick Henry gives the Titans every chance of earning the road upset.

However, the Titans will have to focus and not think about trying to derail AFC South rivals and leaders Jacksonville with a game against the Jaguars next up on deck. Tennessee will also have noted that CJ Stroud made the headlines in Week 9, but Baker Mayfield was plenty impressive for the Buccaneers in that game and had put his team in a position to win before the Defensive unit struggled to stop the Texans.

In saying that, this does not feel a great match up for Baker Mayfield with the Titans better at stopping the pass than defending against the run. Unfortunately for Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they have not really been very good at running the ball this season and the pressure has been on the Quarter Back and the passing game.

As we saw last week, Baker Mayfield has some good Receivers around him and Tampa Bay are certainly capable of making plays through the air. The 37 points scored is rare though and Tampa Bay had not surpassed 18 points in four of their previous five games, while the Titans Secondary is holding teams to under 200 passing yards on average across their last three games.

Kevin Byard has been traded to the Eagles, but even then the Titans have shown up in the passing game and this does give them an edge over the struggling Buccaneers.

Pressure can be generated up front to try and rattle Baker Mayfield, while the Buccaneers might struggle with the expectation of being set as the favourite. The public are lining up to oppose a rookie making another road start, but Will Levis played well enough in Pittsburgh against a tougher Defensive unit than the one the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring onto the field, while Head Coach Mike Vrabel has had a few extra days to put together a game plan after Tennessee played on Thursday Night Football.

His record as an underdog as Head Coach of the Titans is impressive, and Tennessee may do enough to win this one outright and keep their outside hopes of a post-season run moving through Week 10.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: If the season was to end today, the entire AFC North would be involved in the PlayOffs, but there is a reason why all four teams from one Division have yet to make it into the post-season. A huge part of the schedule is made up of facing Divisional rivals and that should begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders in the AFC North over the next couple of weeks with some big games scheduled.

This week the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) are playing a non-Conference game while the Baltimore Ravens face the Cleveland Browns and so it is important for the Steelers to just keep putting the wins on the board. They have actually been struggling to win the yardage battle within games so the 5-3 record feels a little false, although Pittsburgh may feel that all that means is that more is to come from themselves.

They are facing the Green Bay Packers (3-5) who are having every bit as difficult a season as people predicted when moving on from Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back. For all of the years learning behind him, Jordan Love has not exactly staked his claim to being the next franchise Quarter Back for Green Bay with any authority and so it feels a big second half of the season is coming up for Love.

He has not been helped by the injury to Aaron Jones, while the Green Bay Receiving unit is perhaps not up to speed and was part of the reason Rodgers had been so frustrated in his last couple of years with the team.

Having a healthier Aaron Jones is going to be a big help for the entire Packers Offensive unit and the Offensive Line have been happy trying to get the run going. They will be tested by the Pittsburgh Defensive Line, which has been playing well in recent games, but Jones and the Packers have to believe and be confident in what they can do in the running game.

Easing the pressure on Jordan Love is key, and it will also be important to slow down the Pittsburgh pass rush that will be looking to harass Love whenever he steps back to throw. The Secondary have a couple of injuries to deal with, but the Steelers continue to use that pressure up front to force the passing aspect to stall and it is very difficult to believe Jordan Love is going to win this one without the Packers running the ball well and playing strong Defense.

It is the Defensive unit that has given the Green Bay Packers chances to win games this season and only the Detroit Lions can be pointed out as a team that have really given the Packers a tough time. Otherwise the Defensive unit have stepped up their level and tried to make up for the growing Offense and they will believe they can contain the threat posed by a team led by Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back.

While the Packers Offensive Line may feel they can establish the run, it is tougher to expect the same from the Pittsburgh Steelers who have not been moving the ball on the ground with any consistency of late. They are also facing a Packers Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run and forced teams to average just 3.4 yards per carry on average in their last three games.

Kenny Pickett will have a bit more time in the pocket, but he has not exactly been a confident thrower into a Secondary and this is another tough test for the Quarter Back. Diontae Johnson being back is a huge boost, but it has meant a frustrating time for George Pickens and the Packers may be strong enough in the Secondary to at least stall drives and try and win the field position battle.

That will be important and you do have to feel that the Packers scoring between 17 and 21 points would make them favourites to at least cover if they cannot win outright.

Mike Tomlin is an excellent Head Coach and he does get the very best out of his team so you have to give Pittsburgh plenty of respect. They have a decent record as a favourite since the start of the 2022 season too, while the Green Bay Packers are just 3-3 against the spread as an underdog.

Lines have been on the short side in Green Bay games when they have been considered the underdog this season, but getting at least a Field Goal amount of points in this one gives them a lot of opportunity to cover as the road underdog in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: The blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens will have stung the Detroit Lions (6-2), but they come out of their Bye Week with firm ambitions of winning the NFC North and earning a spot in the post-season. They are perhaps going to get a bigger challenge from the Minnesota Vikings than anyone could have expected after Kirk Cousins went down with a season ending injury, but the Lions will be focusing on their own abilities and look to have gotten healthier out of the Bye Week.

Five Divisional games remain for the Lions and they do have to face the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers after this non-Conference game, but Dan Campbell will be looking for some momentum to built up by his players.

They head out on the road to play the Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) who have pulled themselves back up to 0.500 for the season thanks to relatively comfortable wins over the Bears and New York Jets.

No one should be getting too carried away about those wins, while home advantage has not been much of one with road teams having plenty of fans travelling to Los Angeles to see their teams plays.

As talented as the Chargers are on the Offensive side of the ball with the players that can be rolled off the tongue, this is a team that is still struggling to find perfect rhythm on this side of the ball. Only an awful New York Jets Offensive performance on Monday Night Football meant the Chargers Offense avoided criticisms, but they are going to have to be a lot better in Week 10 against a genuine Super Bowl contender.

The Lions have to still prove that on the field, but they have a Defensive Line that can play the run effectively and shutting down Austin Ekeler on the ground is important. The Running Back will stick get plenty of touches through the air, but the key for Detroit will be to try and make Los Angeles a little one-dimensional and see if Justin Herbert's finger is healthy.

Doing so will mean the Lions Secondary will only be concerned about preventing Keenan Allen beat them having seen Justin Herbert restricted to just 136 passing yards in the win over the Jets. New York have a strong Defensive unit, but the Lions is plenty strong too and they have played the pass well and should be able to force Herbert to look at inexperienced Receivers with both Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer expected to miss this game.

Detroit do get pressure up front too and they will be coming out of the Bye Week hungry to show they are much better Defensively than what was seen when blown away by the Baltimore Ravens.

We saw that against an overmatched Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8, but shutting down the Los Angeles Chargers will be more impressive.

It is also an opportunity for Jared Goff and the Detroit Offensive unit to show what they are capable of doing in the second half of the season, especially with this game taking place indoors.

Earlier this season David Montgomery showed he had plenty left in the tank having been signed in the off-season and the former Chicago Bear and Jahmyr Gibbs give the Lions a real potent one-two in the Running Back room. While the Chargers have been looking stout at the Defensive Line in recent games, those numbers have been against really poor Offensive units in the last couple of outings and this is a significant challenge for them.

In saying that, the Chargers have improved across the Defensive Line as they have gotten healthier, but being able to move out of the run blocking set by this Detroit Offensive Line will not be easy. The Lions are unlikely to move too far away from the run unless down by a couple of scores and this is just as important to keep the Chargers guessing and now allow their pass rush to wreck the game.

The Chargers have picked up the pressure in recent games, but Jared Goff is well protected and he has plenty of talented players that can make a difference for him. If he is given any semblance of time or is in front of the chains, Jared Goff is going to be able to make plays against this Secondary and the expectation is that Detroit will enjoy playing in this Stadium where they can showcase their talents.

Los Angeles are on a short week and that has to be play into the hands of the Lions who are well Coached and have a 6-2 record against the spread when having more rest than their opponent.

You have to respect the Chargers who are 2-1 against the spread as the home underdog since the beginning of last season, but playing on the East Coast on Monday Night Football and facing a rested opponent on the West Coast the following Sunday is not ideal at all. They will make some plays, but the Detroit Defensive unit can make enough big plays and Jared Goff and the healthier looking Lions Offense can score the points to win and cover on the road.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Losing a tough game to their main Divisional rivals the Philadelphia Eagles may have sapped some of the energy from the Dallas Cowboys (5-3), but they need to bounce back immediately. There are not too many teams in the NFL that the Cowboys would have rather played than the injury hit New York Giants (2-7) who are having a serious down year after making the PlayOffs last season.

It was already a tough season, but losing Daniel Jones to injury is a massive blow to the New York Giants.

That is not to say that Jones is some unbelievable Quarter Back, and the feeling is that the Giants may still choose to move on from him at the end of the season, but Tyrod Taylor the backup is also out. It means Tommy DeVito, who was playing for Syracuse Orange and Illinois Fighting Illini in his College career, has had to step in during his rookie season with the Giants.

He was an Undrafted Free Agent and the reality is that Tommy DeVito has looked like one of those players in the most important position for the Offensive unit. It has felt like the Giants have very little confidence in him throwing the ball and now he has to play on the road at the Dallas Cowboys for a team struggling in all aspects of their Football.

The usual plan for those teams with a third string Quarter Back would be to establish the run and try and shorten the game- the Giants do have a strong Running Back in Saquon Barkley, but he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line and they are trying to move the ball on the ground against a Dallas Defensive Line that has allowed 3.2 yards per carry of late.

It is a long shot to say the least and that will mean Tommy DeVito may have to help out with his legs, while the check down might be his only way to try and move the ball. He will have to make his reads quickly with the Dallas Cowboys expected to flood the backfield when he does step back to throw and it just feels like a horrible game for an inexperienced Quarter Back to have to deal with.

Players like Matt Barkley have been signed to add veteran experience, but the Giants cannot expect more from him than DeVito and all around it is a very difficult Offensive game for a team that is averaging under 270 Offensive yards per game this season.

Covering this kind of spread in the NFL is never going to be easy and Dak Prescott and the Dallas Offensive unit will have to play a clean game and not offer the Giants any momentum.

Questions remain about Prescott and his suitability to lead the Cowboys back to the Super Bowl having failed to win big games again this season, but this is a team that have crushed opponents at home. They will be expecting to do the same in Week 10 having beaten the Giants by 40 points on the road in Week 1, although the feeling is that the Cowboys will call off the dogs in the second half and win by around half that number.

You do have to credit the Giants Defensive unit for elevating their levels of late, but that is also partly down to the fact they have played the likes of the Washington Commanders, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders (without Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarter Back). Of course fingers can be pointed out that the Giants 'restricted' Miami to 31 points and only allowed 14 against the Buffalo Bills, but those are non-Conference opponents who may not be as motivated as a NFC East rival playing behind a loss.

The Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 against the spread following a defeat since the start of the 2022 season and they will likely be able to do what they want in this one. In recent games Dallas have not run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked, but Tony Pollard can at least give the Offensive unit a different crease.

Ultimately it will be Dak Prescott's arm that will win the game and he can attack this Secondary with some confidence, especially if Pollard and the Offensive Line have just gotten something rolling on the ground.

Again, the Giants have to respected for their recent level of performance, but the Cowboys may end up with extra possessions in this game and in short fields and that may see New York just wilt.

Divisional games tend to be competitive and that has to be factored in, but Dallas did crush New York at home in 2021.

Offensively they have put up some strong numbers against the New York Giants and the suggestion is that 30 points will see the Cowboys in a position to cover a bloated line.

A backdoor cover will always be an opportunity when talking about big, double digit spreads, but the feeling is that Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants struggle to move the ball with any consistency and that means they will have issues scoring a couple of Touchdowns without significant help from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New York Jets - 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Week 11 Picks 2022 (November 12th)

There is no getting away from the fact that the College Football Picks have been poor this season, but the regular season still has a number of weeks to go before the conclusion and then we get into Championship Week.

That gives me time to turn things around, but I would like to see something positive in Week 11 as the season continues.

LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: After finishing with a 6-7 record in 2021, having eleven returning players on both sides of the ball and a new Head Coach in Brian Kelly, not many felt this would be the season in which the LSU Tigers (7-2) would be challenging in the SEC West. The loaded Division is filled with some of the best teams in the nation, but the Tigers earned a massive upset in Week 10 which has given them a 5-1 record in the Conference and an inside track to the SEC Championship Game.

Two tough road games are left within the Conference after Brian Kelly made the bold move of going for two in Overtime to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide and effectively end Nick Saban's hopes of reaching the College Football PlayOff. The LSU Tigers will likely have to win out, including a likely upset of the Georgia Bulldogs, to have any hope of becoming the first two loss team to reach the PlayOff, but the Head Coach is trying to keep the players focused and make sure they are not thinking too far ahead.

Let's face facts, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Tigers as the road favourite just one week after upsetting Alabama at home as an almost two Touchdown underdog. The Tigers are also facing the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) who are coming in off an upset defeat to the Liberty Flames and who are going to be well short of the nine wins recorded in 2021.

That loss in Week 10 at home will have really hurt and it also means the Razorbacks are still searching for one more win to become Bowl eligible for a third season in a row. Head Coach Sam Pittman will have been really disappointed with the defeat to Liberty, but he is expecting starting Quarter Back KJ Jefferson to be much healthier this week compared to where he was in that defeat.

Brian Kelly has made it clear that his Tigers team should be well aware that they have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game, but a defeat will open the door to Alabama or the Mississippi Rebels to sneak through. He has also been reminding his team of the fact they were beaten by the Razorbacks in 2021 and so would be foolish to overlook the potential of the home team and I do think that motivational factor should cover the letdown spot.

Controlling the line of scrimmage will be the key for both the Tigers and Razorbacks in this game as it will mean establishing the run and giving their Quarter Back an opportunity to attack vulnerable Secondaries. It will also ease the pass rush that both LSU and Arkansas have been able to produce in recent games, but a telling difference could be the ailments that KJ Jefferson is dealing with compared with Jayden Daniels who has looked healthy at Quarter Back for the Tigers.

Both should be able to have strong outings, but if Jefferson is still not at 100%, we saw last week that he can be guilty of making some bad mistakes against the Liberty Flames and this LSU Tigers team may be bouncing a little more.

Jayden Daniels has been careful with the ball in recent games and that has helped the LSU Tigers win three games in a row since their blowout loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. The Tigers have also won road games at Auburn and Florida within the SEC this season and that should at least mean the team is confident in performing in Fayetteville.

Arkansas have to be respected as they have performed well as the home underdog with Sam Pittman at Head Coach, but they were blown out by the Alabama Crimson Tide here.

The poor scheduling spot is a real concern for the LSU Tigers, but this is a team who have been very good playing with revenge and I think they will do enough in this one to win and cover.

Missouri Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: A defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs likely means there is no opportunity to play for the SEC Championship this season, but 2022 could still be a very successful year for the Tennessee Volunteers (8-1). The unbeaten run is over, but the way the College Football scene is breaking down, the Volunteers can finish off very strongly through their remaining three regular season games and hope that is enough to make the PlayOff as a one loss, non-Conference Champion.

Make no mistake, the Volunteers will be upset with the defeat to the Bulldogs, but it was not a blow out and they will feel a second crack at the defending Champions could see a different result. That loss is also one that will hold a lot of weight with the PlayOff Committee if the Georgia Bulldogs go on and finish the regular season unbeaten and then win the SEC Championship Game as they are favoured to do.

The Clemson Tigers losing last week has opened the door for a non-Conference Champion to push into the top four and it says everything you need to know that Tennessee only slipped to Number 5 following the defeat in Week 10. Two of the teams ahead of them have to play one another before all is said and done (Ohio State and Michigan) and so style points may end up being very important for the Volunteers if there are three unbeaten Conference Champions.

I still think that is a long shot with the feeling being the SEC and Big Ten will have the only unbeaten Champions and so Tennessee have plenty of motivation to take into Week 11 as they look to bounce back.

This is a tough test for the Volunteers as they play their final home game of the season against the Missouri Tigers (4-5) who have yet to have a winning season under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz. However, the Tigers are happy with the Coaching and an extension has been agreed with Drinkwitz as Missouri look for two more wins to make them Bowl eligible.

Missouri have won at least six games in four of their last five seasons, but the narrow loss to the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 10 has left them in a difficult position. The remaining two games following this one are both being played in Columbia so the Tigers will still be confident, while they have challenged every opponent they have faced since the Week 2 blow out at the hands of the Kansas State Wildcats.

The run includes an Overtime loss at Auburn, a 4 point loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and a 7 point loss at the Florida Gators so many may feel the Missouri Tigers are receiving plenty of points in this one. I have to feel the same, although the motivation of the Tennessee Volunteers and the strong record playing following a loss under Josh Heupel does lean me towards a big win for the home team in Knoxville.

After seeing the Offensive unit slowed down by the Bulldogs last week, I am expecting Hendon Hooker to come out and lead the Volunteers to strong drives through much of this game. They are facing a tough Missouri Defensive unit that can be strong at the line of scrimmage, but the Tigers have not really run into too many Offenses like the one the Volunteers will be bringing onto the field.

The Tennessee Offensive Line have something to prove as they have not really helped the team establish the run as well as they would have liked in recent games, while the pass protection has not been as good as it should be either. However, I think Hendon Hooker and the Receiving corps can win enough battles on the outside to keep the chains moving when they take to the air and the Quarter Back has largely been very careful with the ball to avoid the turnovers that proved fatal last week.

While I am expecting Missouri to make some plays with their Defensive unit, stopping the Volunteers after the way the Bulldogs managed it will be much more difficult. I expect the home team to add a few more creases to the game plan to try and keep the Tigers off-balance and that may see them get back to the kind of output we had been used to seeing before Week 10.

Covering the spread won't be easy unless the Volunteers Defensive unit play their part and they showed against the Georgia Bulldogs that Tennessee are pretty good on this side of the ball. The Offensive unit will always generate the headlines, but Tennessee will feel they can clamp down at the line of scrimmage and make the Missouri Tigers pretty one-dimensional Offensively.

Brady Cook has needed more support from his running game and the Quarter Back has thrown more Interceptions than Touchdown passes this season. He has been averaging less than 200 passing yards per game in the last three and I do think this game could get away from Missouri if they have to rely on their passing game to stay with the Volunteers.

The Quarter Back will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played well in recent games and I do think the Tigers could have issues sustaining drives. The backdoor cover could b open here with the number of points on the spread, but the Volunteers will be looking to match the Michigan Wolverines in putting up style points to convince the Committee that one loss does not define who they are.

Tennessee are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss, while the last two wins over the Missouri Tigers have been by 23 points or more. I expect the spread will come down to the last couple of possessions, but I am looking for the Volunteers to bounce back in strong fashion and cover this mark against this Divisional rival.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Ruling out any Nick Saban team to make the College Football PlayOff in mid-November has been a mistake more often than not, but we have yet to see a two loss team reach the final four and it would be a massive surprise if the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) are the first. Losses to the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers means they are very unlikely to make the SEC Championship Game and it will be far from easy for the Head Coach to lift the players.

Both losses have been very close and the LSU Tigers going for two in Overtime last week will have stung the confidence of the Alabama players. They need significant help to win the SEC West now, but all the Crimson Tide can do is try and win out and see where the chips lie.

Alabama will head to Oxford to take on the Mississippi Rebels (8-1) in Week 11, another SEC West team needing some help if they are going to reach the Championship Game. The Rebels have one fewer Conference defeats than the Crimson Tide, but that loss was also to the LSU Tigers and means Mississippi need to win out and hope LSU lose one of their remaining two SEC games.

With that in mind, there is everything to play for in this huge SEC game and the Alabama Crimson Tide are a pretty big favourite all things considered. They have had a tendency to bounce back from losses, although the one suffered last week to the Tigers and the manner in which the game ended will be a real test of the mental strength of the Alabama players.

Heavy reliance on the Bryce Young arm at Quarter Back has proven to be a mistake from Alabama and you have to imagine they are going to try and go back to basics this week. I still expect Young to throw plenty, but Alabama's Offensive Line should be tasked with establishing the run more effectively than they were last week and especially against this Rebels Defensive Line which has struggled at the line of scrimmage.

In the last three games, Alabama have been surprisingly poor running the ball with just 3.2 yards per carry put together by the team. However, I think the Offensive Co-Ordinator needs to take some of the blame for moving away from the run and this is an Alabama team who are still averaging almost 6 yards per carry over the course of the season.

Establishing the run will only make things that much more comfortable for Bryce Young and the passing game and the Rebels have struggled to stop teams both on the ground and through the air. Slowing down the pass rush would be a bonus for the Quarter Back and the feeling is that Alabama will have a big game on this side of the ball.

The question in relation to the spread is whether the Mississippi Rebels are playing well enough Offensively to keep up on the scoreboard?

Much will depend on the line of scrimmage when the Mississippi Rebels have the ball with the team hammering teams on the ground in recent games, but now having to face an Alabama Defensive Line which is still pretty stout. Both LSU and Tennessee have been able to have enough success on the ground to find the balance in their Offensive play, but the Crimson Tide may not believe Ole Miss can throw the ball as well as Hendon Hooker and Jayden Daniels and that may see Alabama sell out to stop the run.

Jaxson Dart has not been as efficient as those two Quarter Backs mentioned and he could be facing an Alabama pass rush that puts him under enough duress to extract a mistake or two from his game. I do think Dart and the Rebels Offensive unit will have some success considering the likely letdown spot for the Crimson Tide who are going to come up way short of expectations, but the Rebels were blown out in their loss to the LSU Tigers and I do think they will struggle to keep up on the scoreboard.

Alabama have won six in a row against the Mississippi Rebels and the last five have all come by at least 15 points per game.

The Crimson Tide have also covered in their last five games following a straight up loss, while Mississippi are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home games and just 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a Bye Week.

Disappointment will be hard to shift for the road team, but I am also expecting an angry Alabama with a point to prove after all the criticism they have been facing over the last week. This could show up on the scoreboard with the Crimson Tide producing a rare big road win against an SEC rival as I look for them to win this one by a couple of Touchdowns when all is said and done in Oxford.

MY PICKS: LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan State Spartans - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.33 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.78% Yield)

Week 9: 3-4, - 1.33 Units (7 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)

Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

NFL Week 10 Picks 2022 (November 10-14)

There is no getting away from how much Week 5 and Week 6 stung with some horrific results, but the bounce back has been a positive and means the season totals are now very much back in the black thanks to another strong outing last week.

Once again, I will say this is not the time to be getting carried away and there are plenty of tough moments to negotiate between now and the Super Bowl, but it is good to have put an end to those horrible two weeks and move the winning selections over the line.

Keeping that momentum going is the only focus I have as we enter Week 10 of the 2022 season.

I haven't really been able to write out full threads for the Weekly Picks in a while, but in this thread I have my updated top five in the NFL:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-0): The last remaining unbeaten team who look to have the balance on both sides of the ball. However, I still feel the Eagles have yet to be fully tested.

2) Buffalo Bills (6-2): Yes, they lost last week, but the bigger concern is Josh Allen's injury status. If his throwing arm is going to be limited going forward, the Buffalo Bills will sink in the AFC.

3) Dallas Cowboys (6-2): I am probably higher on the Cowboys than most, but I really think this could be the year for Dallas to have the PlayOff run that their long suffering fanbase has been hoping for since the mid 1990s.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (6-2): Patrick Mahomes will always make the Chiefs dangerous, although I do wonder if the Defensive unit and the Offensive Line will hold up.

5) Miami Dolphins (6-3): Another surprising team perhaps? As a Dolphins fan I have become used to disappointment, but this teams feels different. Oh, and they have yet to suffer a loss in a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.

That may be my current top five, but I am expecting the San Francisco 49ers to soon break through as I have them, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys as my three favourites in the NFC. Barring injury, I would say those three teams are most likely to make the PlayOffs and it is hard to see which other team in the NFC would really fancy their chances of knocking those off.

The Buffalo Bills have looked the best team in the AFC, but the Josh Allen injury is a massive concern. If he was to worsen and miss the rest of the season, the whole Conference opens up and I think there would be a host of teams who believe they could go all the way to the Super Bowl and potentially win it all too.

Week 10 begins with a NFC South game on Thursday Night Football.

Further Picks from the games to be played on Sunday and Monday will be placed in the thread in the coming days.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The AFC East is the only Division in the NFL that has four teams with winning records competing within it, but the NFC South is in a completely situation. All four of the teams in this Division have losing records and all four are still very much competing for a PlayOff spot, but things can begin to take shape when two of those meet in Week 10 of the 2022 season on Thursday Night Football.

This is the second meeting between the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) and the Carolina Panthers (2-7) in three weeks after a very, very close, competitive meeting between the teams in Atlanta in Week 8. That was a game that needed Overtime, although the Carolina Panthers have to be feeling pretty sick with the way they blew the end of the regulation time with the game looking to be firmly in their control.

The efforts in Week 8 clearly took their toll on the struggling Carolina Panthers who were almost expectedly blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. It may also have contributed to the Atlanta Falcons late loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, although the feeling is that Atlanta will have invested a lot more into that Week 9 effort than the Panthers seemed to do.

Despite being two games out of the Divisional lead, some may feel the Panthers are already thinking about tanking and trying to finish with a top five Draft Pick after the capitulation at the Cincinnati Bengals. However, I do think this Thursday Night Football scheduled game was a distraction for them and I am expecting a much stronger effort all around from the home team.

They will need to put in a stronger effort in their bid to snap their two game losing run than they produced in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals, but my feeling is that the Divisional rivalry will see that happen. PJ Walker is getting the call again at Quarter Back, even though Baker Mayfield gave the Offensive unit a spark on Sunday, but this should be a more comfortable day in the office for the unit on this side of the ball.

Carolina couldn't really lean on D'Onta Foreman last week, but I expect the Running Back to have a much stronger outing on Thursday Night Football and especially against this Falcons Defensive Line. In the game between these NFC South rivals two weeks ago, Foreman was able to pile up over 100 yards on the ground and added three Touchdowns and I do think he will put the Panthers in a position ahead of the chains.

With little pass rush pressure around him and being in third and manageable, PJ Walker should be able to hurt the Panthers Secondary much like he was able to do in Week 8. Avoiding turnovers will be key for the Quarter Back, but he is throwing into an Atlanta Secondary that has given up an average of 337 passing yards per game across their last three games and who allowed Walker to throw for 317 passing yards in Week 8 too.

I do think the Carolina Panthers will be able to move the ball and score their points, but the Atlanta Falcons will feel they are stronger than they were in Week 8 now that Cordarrelle Patterson is back in the line up. The Falcons were able to run the ball very effectively against the Carolina Panthers in their first meeting and I think Patterson will be able to pick up from where Caleb Huntley left off.

This should make the life of Marcus Mariota pretty comfortable at Quarter Back as the Falcons establish the run and open up play-action passes. Being in third and manageable is also much better for any Quarter Back in the NFL and Marcus Mariota should have time to make some big plays with his arm.

He has not been as consistent as he may have liked, but Marcus Mariota played well against the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago and will feel he can put up some solid numbers for his team again. The two Interceptions on the day were almost fatal for the Atlanta chances to win the game, but Marcus Mariota should have time in the pocket when he does step back to throw.

It feels like it is going to be another close game between these NFC South rivals, although the short week does raise a few more uncertainties.

I backed the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers and that was largely down to the feeling that the latter may not be focused in that game. After putting in a huge effort to come up short in Week 8, it was perhaps no surprise that the Panthers were lacking energy last Sunday, but I am also expecting a much more motivated Carolina team to come out in this one.

They can move the ball with a bit more balance than the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers can improve the 5-0 run the underdog is on in this series when it comes to the spread.

It is difficult to back the Panthers with a lot of confidence considering some of the truly terrible trends they have produced in recent years, but the Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Thursday games. I would have loved to have gotten the hook over the Field Goal number, but the Carolina Panthers can do enough on home field to make even this number of points count.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: First things first, this is the last international game the NFL are sending to Europe this season as they play in Munich, Germany to expand onto the continent. In previous years, London has been the sole host of the European games, but the NFL is absolutely massive in the Netherlands and Germany and the quick sell-out shows the appetite for the regular season to be played in those venues.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-3) head to Munich as the current NFC South and NFC West Divisional leaders, although there have been a lot more questions about the former this season. The Buccaneers have been one of the big disappointments so far, but the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 may be the spark the whole team has needed.

On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks are arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL this season having traded away Russell Wilson in the off-season and decided to go with veteran Geno Smith at Quarter Back. The Geno Smith career has not reached the heights he would have hoped, but he has looked more than a serviceable starter in 2022 and has been a key leader for the young Seahawks who have shown an improvement in each passing week.

They will lean on Smith at Quarter Back, but the main game plan for the Seahawks has to be establishing Kenneth Walker III and the run. The Seahawks Offensive Line have been very happy when the call is made to grade the road and Walker III has been one of the top Running Backs in the NFL with a burst to break through the Line and hit the Secondary very hard.

In recent games the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and I do think Seattle will be in a position to take advantage.

That makes it much easier for Geno Smith if the Seahawks are in third and manageable for much of the afternoon. It should mean having a bit more time to make his throws with some quality Receivers like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett making his plays for him, and I think the Seahawks will be able to move the chains even in this tough scheduling spot.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking forward to the Bye Week that follows this one and they will have been pleased to have seen the Atlanta Falcons already beaten in Week 10. They remain banged up in a number of areas on both sides of the ball, and Brady has yet to really get on the same page as the Offensive Line which is much changed from the one that helped the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.

Offensive Line troubles have also affected Leonard Fournette and the Running Backs being used- the Buccaneers are only averaging 2.8 yards per carry in their last three games and this Seattle Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run in recent games as the entire Defensive unit continues to grow into the season.

An inability to run the ball has meant Tom Brady has been relying on his arm to keep the chains moving and he does have some big name Receivers that can make plays for him. The problem for one of the best of all time is that the Line has not protected him as well as he would like to allow time for his Receivers to get down the field and I would expect Tom Brady to be under pressure from what has been a powerful Seattle pass rush.

The pressure up front has really helped the young Seahawks Secondary and I do think they will feel they can do enough on this side of the ball to earn the upset.

It is far from an ideal start time for the West Coast based Seattle Seahawks, but they have the momentum and I do think they can dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay will be over-rated by the layers knowing people will want to back Tom Brady, but the Buccaneers are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and I do think the Seahawks have every chance of winning this one outright.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Minnesota Vikings have a healthy lead in the NFC North, but the Chicago Bears (3-6) and the Detroit Lions (2-7) may yet feel there is a potential Wild Card spot available with a strong end to the season. On the other hand, the trades made by both teams before the deadline are less encouraging for the fans when it comes to the 2022 prospects and instead this could be a season in which these teams continue to grow and look for much better next time around.

The Bears in particularly will be keen to develop Justin Fields at Quarter Back and the recent performances of the young player has to be exciting. Bringing in Chase Claypool gives the Quarter Back another Receiving option, while the Bears look to have decided to make full use of Justin Fields' attributes and got him moving the ball with his legs too.

Running the ball has been key for the Chicago Bears in recent games and I do think they will be able to hit the Detroit Defensive Line on the ground. A RPO line up will be even more difficult to stop after seeing Fields crush the Miami Dolphins on the ground in Week 9 and I do think the Bears Offensive Line will be strong enough at the line of scrimmage to keep the team in front of the chains.

From there, Justin Fields can throw the ball with some success against this Detroit Secondary and there has been a feeling that the Chicago Bears are finally feeling like they can have their Quarter Back throw more than they did earlier in the season. The Lions made some big plays in the passing game when Aaron Rodgers was trying to throw against them last week, but they bent plenty before the turnovers created in the End Zone and I do think the Chicago Bears will be balanced on the Offensive side of the ball to keep the Lions scrambling.

After trading away a couple of the leaders on the Defensive side of the ball, it is going to be a tough end of the season for the Chicago Bears and I do think the Lions will have plenty of successes in this one too. Jared Goff did not have to do a lot in the winning effort against the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, but the Quarter Back should be able to have a solid day in this Divisional battle.

He will be helped by the running game and the Detroit Lions should be able to keep themselves in front of the chains and that should give Goff the chance to have a stronger day throwing the ball. A limited Chicago pass rush is not expected to pressure the Quarter Back and so Jared Goff should be able to have a big game like his opposite number.

This should be a game featuring plenty of Offensive output, but I do lean to the home team.

The Detroit Lions put in a big effort to beat the Green Bay Packers and you do have to wonder if they can dig that deep again at Soldier Field where they have been beaten in three of their last four visits.

Over the last year and a half, the Bears have been a pretty good home favourite to back, while the Detroit Lions are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. The Bears are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five at home and I think they can do enough at home to earn the victory with Justin Fields being let loose.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins Pick: A big win over a Divisional rival before going into the Bye Week will have given the Cleveland Browns (3-5) a boost as they continue to try and manage the situation before Deshaun Watson is able to return at Quarter Back. Three more games have to be negotiated before Watson can return, but it is a tough stretch for Cleveland out of the Bye.

First up is a trip to Florida to take on the streaking Miami Dolphins (6-3) who will be going into the Bye Week after this game. An injury to Josh Allen has potentially opened the AFC East up for a new Champion and the Miami Dolphins have yet to lose a game that has been started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa.

Back to back win road games at the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears shows a motivated and concentrated Miami Dolphins team, but this may be a tougher challenge than the two Defensive units that have been faced in those wins. In recent games, the Cleveland Browns have remained competitive thanks to the level being produced by the Defense and they will feel they can give their Offense a chance to win this one in an upset on the road.

The Cleveland Defensive Line have been strong up front and they won't be too concerned with the Miami running game, even with the addition of Jeff Wilson Jr to the Running Back room. For all of the positives we have seen from the Dolphins this season, they have not yet found the right way to establish the run and have been very reliant on what looks like one of the stronger passing Offenses in the NFL.

This time Tua Tagovailoa will be tested by a Cleveland Secondary which has held their last three opponents to under 200 passing yards per game, although the Quarter Backs faced have not had the kind of Receiving threat that Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle will pose down the field. In saying that, the Browns have been able to get their pass rush going thanks to the ability to clamp down on the run and the Miami Offensive Line will not find it easy to give their Quarter Back the time to allow the Receivers to make their routes down the field.

Stopping Miami completely will be a test for any Defensive team in the NFL, but the Cleveland Browns have to believe they can at least restrict their hosts and give Jacoby Brissett and the Offensive unit a chance.

Jacoby Brissett will be well used to playing in this Stadium having been a member of the Miami Dolphins in 2021 and he has just been holding the keys for Deshaun Watson while the suspension is completed.

The reality is that the Cleveland Offensive Line will be tasked with opening up the running lanes for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and they are certainly capable of doing that against this Dolphins Defensive Line. In recent games, the Dolphins have not really been able to stop teams picking up big yards on the ground, but the Offensive scoring power has forced a change in the game plan.

In this one the Cleveland Browns are likely going to stick with pounding the rock and trying to make things easier for Jacoby Brissett at Quarter Back. The Offensive Line have not been as strong in pass protection as they have in run blocking, but being in front of the chains should make things pretty comfortable for Brissett as it should ease the ability of Bradley Chubb to wreck plans up front.

Jacoby Brissett will also be throwing into a Secondary that will give up some big plays and I do think the Cleveland Browns can at least stay with the Miami Dolphins.

Cleveland have not been the best out of a Bye Week under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski who is in his third season here, while they have not been able to back up wins with a strong return at the window.

The Dolphins had been a team that were not only winning games, but covering regularly, but they are now just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and I do think the Defensive issues means they will allow a potential backdoor cover here.

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans Pick: You cannot ignore the kind of effort that the Tennessee Titans (5-3) put into their Week 9 loss at the Kansas City Chiefs and coming so close to a win, only to lose, is tough on the players. Derrick Henry continues to carry the AFC South leaders on his back, but the Titans may be bolstered by a returning Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back.

Trading away AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles has dented the passing game anyway, but Malik Willis has really not been asked to throw too many times in the two starts he has made for the team in place of Ryan Tannehill. It has made the Titans even more one-dimensional, not that the Houston Texans or the Kansas City Chiefs have had a lot of success slowing down Derrick Henry even knowing what is coming.

This week it will be tasked to the Denver Broncos (3-5) who are coming out of their Bye Week having last played in London in Week 8 and finding a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The victory may have been enough to keep Nathaniel Hackett in his role as Head Coach of the Broncos, but this is a team who have underachieved to the point that they were willing to trade away Bradley Chubb.

A decision to bring in Russell Wilson to spark the Offensive unit and back up the strong Defensive play we have seen in Denver has not paid off as the Broncos would have hoped. However, the Broncos are still in a position where a strong end to the season could see the team push their way into the PlayOff positions in the Conference.

One of the main problems on this side of the ball has been the inability to run the ball consistently, especially now Wilson is not the scrambling Quarter Back he once was in his time with the Seattle Seahawks. Trying to establish the run against the Tennessee Defensive Line is a huge challenge at the best of times, and I am not sure Denver are going to have much success in this one, which does shift the pressure onto the passing game.

Russell Wilson has been feeling the pass rush pressure all around him with the team left in third and long more often than not, and that is going to be a problem against the Titans. The home team have been disruptive when it comes to getting to the Quarter Back and Russell Wilson could find himself throwing under pressure, which can lead to big mistakes down the field.

Tennessee have seen the Defensive unit step up and make their plays to keep the team competitive even without much of a semblance of a passing Offense and that is likely to be the case here.

However, this time it looks like a returning Ryan Tannehill could be in the starting line up and that will force Denver to at least respect the fact that the veteran can throw the ball down the field and the Titans will allow him to do that. It will make stopping Derrick Henry that much more challenging and that is a concern for the Broncos Defensive Line which has left some big holes to be exploited up front.

The big Running Back will likely have another strong outing with plenty of touches and King Henry can put the Titans in a strong position to win and cover.

A Thursday Night Football slot in Week 11 can be a distraction for teams, but the Titans won't be too concerned about the Green Bay Packers after the way the season has gone for them. A Conference game is more important and I think the Titans game plan does not change much with their returning Quarter Back, but it is a plan that could be difficult for Denver to stop.

Last weekend was a difficult loss for Tennessee to take, but Head Coach Mike Vrabel is very strong at getting his team refocused and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a loss. Tennessee are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home, while the Denver Broncos are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road.

I expect a heavy does of Derrick Henry on one side and a fierce pass rush on the other to help the Titans move onto six wins of the season and remain in firm control of the AFC South Division race.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 9: 4-1-2, + 5.36 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.29% Yield)

Week 8: 5-2, + 5.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 36.86% Yield)

Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)