ATP Finals Day 8 Tennis Pick 2025- Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz (Sunday 16th November)

The last Singles match of the 2025 Tennis season is fittingly going to be played between the top two players in the world.

Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been peaking into the Final of this event and it would be disappointing if this is not another solid match to add to the ever-increasing rivalry.

Two winners from the Semi Final matches has ensured another good tournament for the Picks to round out a solid bounce back season.

Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 games: This is the sixth meeting in the 2025 season between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner and it perhaps fitting that the Spaniard holds the World Number 1 Ranking having beaten his rival in four of the five matches played.

That includes wins in the French Open and US Open Final, although Jannik Sinner won the Wimbledon Final, and these two players are going to be expected to dice up the Grand Slam titles again next year.

This is a big title to add to the collection- Jannik Sinner won it last year and is playing in front of the home fans, which brings additional momentum, while Carlos Alcaraz has yet to win the ATP Finals.

Both have been playing well and the serves have been key.

Once again that is going to be the case with the player who is able to get a bit more out of this shot likely able to dictate rallies and keep the pressure on the other. Getting the first strike in has to be important for both as they look to put the pressure on the rival across the net, but there will be swings in momentum as has been the case in the previous matches played in 2025.

Rarely have matches been finished in routine straight sets.

We should see both have their chances to take control and a deciding set at the end of this year feels right.

Jannik Sinner is the favourite and by some margin, which is a surprise, and the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz simply because of the way the head to head has developed.

However, the last Pick of the season will be looking for this match to surpass the total games line set.

As long as the two continue to serve at the levels shown in the last few days in Turin, it is a match that could potentially move past this total line even in a straight sets win for either player.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 9-4, + 3.04 Units (13 Units Staked, + 23.38% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 15th November)

There have been a couple of really disappointing performances from players who will be expecting to challenge for Grand Slam titles in 2026 and that has led to a couple of surprising names being able to make it through to the last four at the ATP Finals.

Most fans will still be expecting to see the top two players in the world compete for yet another title, but Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime are going to have something to say about that.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This Semi Final was set before the final Group matches were played on Friday, but it is Alex De Minaur who will have been able to earn a day of rest between matches.

After losing his opening two matches in the tournament, Alex De Minaur's hopes of progressing into the Semi Final was hanging by a thread going into Day 5 in Turin. He had no choice but to win in straight sets in his final match, but De Minaur still had to wait and hope Carlos Alcaraz would beat Lorenzo Musetti before knowing he would be tasked with heading out and playing again.

Alex De Minaur has to take encouragement out of the fact that his performances have improved in each of the three matches played- after losing in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, De Minaur had a chance to serve out the match against Lorenzo Musetti before losing in three sets and then ultimately beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to move through the Group.

Serving well is going to be really important against the World Number 2 and that has been something that has been challenging for Alex De Minaur when facing Jannik Sinner in the past.

It has also been the reason Alex De Minaur has lost all twelve matches played against the Italian.

All but one of those defeats have been on the hard courts, including in all three matches in 2025 and Jannik Sinner has won seven of the eight sets played between the players. Two of those wins earned by Jannik Sinner have been since the US Open and there is a massive advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player that is almost impossible to ignore.

Jannik Sinner has won 69% of the points played behind his serve compared with Alex De Minaur's 56% mark... This has led to Sinner holding in 91% of service games played compared with De Minaur doing the same in 63% of his own service games and these are big edges in favour of Jannik Sinner.

He was given a bit of an examination by Ben Shelton in the final Group match, but Jannik Sinner was largely in control and did not have to spend any additional time on the court.

This should all mean that the Italian is ready to reach another Final here in Turin and the World Number 2 may be able to do that in some style.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: After losing to Jannik Sinner and looking like he was suffering with some sort of calf injury, Felix Auger-Aliassime has performed really well to win back to back Group matches.

The battling display against Ben Shelton deserves a lot more respect than the win over Alexander Zverev merely because the American pushed Felix Auger-Aliassime really hard. This may have cracked lesser players, but the Canadian has continued producing at key times in the second half of the season and Auger-Aliassime is going to head into 2026 with a lot of confidence.

Everything in this Semi Final is about the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve as he bids to upset the World Number 1.

It has been a big weapon in the wins over Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, but Felix Auger-Aliassime struggled to impose himself on Jannik Sinner in the opening Group match. He may have learned from that, but Auger-Aliassime has not faced Carlos Alcaraz in sixteen months and the Spaniard is playing at a really solid level himself to secure that position heading into the 2026 season.

Three matches played and three wins on the board has given Carlos Alcaraz momentum as he looks to go forward and win the ATP Finals for the first time to continue to add to his increasing trophy collection.

Despite already being through to the Semi Final, Carlos Alcaraz produced his best performance in the tournament in the win over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday. That will further the momentum he has built up in the tournament and Alcaraz has to be pretty confident that much of this match will be played on his racquet, even when facing a very good server like Felix Auger-Aliassime.

There are just more ways for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match.

Covering the spread will not be easy and the World Number 1 may need to break serve at least three times to do that, but he has reached that total in all three of the matches played this week. The performance in the win over Taylor Fritz will give Carlos Alcaraz the confidence to deal with the World Number 8 and he has won each of the last four matches between the players.

We have seen Felix Auger-Aliassime produce high quality tennis when he has momentum and built up confidence- he is dangerous here having done that in back to back wins to join Jannik Sinner in the last four, but Carlos Alcaraz is a big challenge for the Canadian and that may show up on the final scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 7-4, + 1.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 11.64% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 14th November)

Three of the four Semi Finalists in Turin have been confirmed after Alex De Minaur got the better of the odds to win his match in straight sets and then move through to the last four with just a single win under his belt.

He did need Carlos Alcaraz to beat home hope Lorenzo Musetti, and the Australian will feel like he is playing with 'house money' after losing his opening two matches and still finding a way through to the Semi Final.

Preparation will have begun to face Jannik Sinner, although the World Number 2 has to complete his Group commitments in the Day Session on Day 6 at the tournament.

One more Semi Final spot has yet to be confirmed and that will be fought out between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Evening Session with the reward being a match against the World Number 1 on Saturday.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Ben Shelton: Two wins from two matches played means Jannik Sinner has topped this Group and this is a dead rubber for both the top Italian player and Ben Shelton, who has been eliminated after losing the second match in succession.

With that in mind, the organisers have scheduled the contest for the Day Session so Jannik Sinner is able to get plenty of rest before the Semi Final match to be played on Saturday. The chances are that he will be going on in the Evening Session in that Semi Final, especially if the match is against Carlos Alcaraz, and that should allow Jannik Sinner to invest plenty into this match.

He was far from his best in the win over Alexander Zverev, but was still able to come away with a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard. The big points were played really well, especially on his own serve, although Sinner's opponent is going to have some regret about not being able to put in enough aggressive intensity when it mattered the most.

You can be certain that Ben Shelton is not going to take a backwards step in this match, but he has not really been able to compete with Jannik Sinner in their recent meetings and bridging that gap with nothing on the line will be difficult.

Ben Shelton has a big serve, which is always going to make him dangerous and make spreads like this one feel very wide.

However, the American has not really been playing his best tennis since withdrawing at the US Open and Shelton has faced 12 Break Points in his two defeats here in Turin. The performance was better overall against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton will be well aware that he is facing one of the top return players on the Tour and one who has regularly been able to find a way into his service games.

It was Ben Shelton who won the first ever meeting between these players in Shanghai back in October 2023, but Jannik Sinner has clearly taken offence to that and has won all seventeen sets played against the World Number 5 since then.

This includes winning in straight sets at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, while Jannik Sinner has broken in almost 1/4 return games played against Shelton on the hard courts.

Ben Shelton has thus been under immense pressure and that is only increased by the fact he has broken in 8% of return games played against Jannik Sinner on this surface.

He can come out with 'nothing to lose' but this has been a long season and the impending break may be something of a distraction for the lower Ranked player.

Jannik Sinner should still be locked in and he can clear this handicap mark much as he did when beating Shelton in straight sets at the Paris Masters at the end of October.

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Both men have beaten Ben Shelton and lost in straight sets against Jannik Sinner within this Group and that leaves Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime facing a 'winner takes all' contest against one another.

The Evening Session will be headlined by this Singles match as both players look for a strong end to the 2025 season and the narrow edge may have to be with Alexander Zverev.

He has had successes at the Tour Finals in the past and the conditions are very much to Zverev's liking, while he should be highly motivated to want to get one over on Felix Auger-Aliassime having lost to the Canadian in the Third Round at the US Open.

Alexander Zverev has a strong record against this opponent, but he has lost the two Grand Slam matches played against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This is another big setting in which the players are meeting and so that may be something that is on the Zverev mind, even if his overall level here in Turin has been higher than what the World Number 8 has been able produce.

Credit has to be given to Felix Auger-Aliassime for battling back to beat Ben Shelton a couple of days ago, while he has also shown plenty of strength to come through a calf injury suffered in the opening match and still be able to have an opportunity to reach the Semi Final here.

The pressure will be on Felix Auger-Aliassime to serve well and the head to head on the hard courts has seen Alexander Zverev earn a significant edge in that department. Even in the defeat in New York City in the last Grand Slam of the season, Alexander Zverev earned more Break Points than Auger-Aliassime and so there will be a confidence in the German's camp that their man can come through.

In the two matches both have played in this Group, Alexander Zverev has just been the more convincing and that may ultimately show up in this match, which is effectively a Quarter Final.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is dangerous and he is not likely to throw in the towel, but the fine edge in the biggest moments may be with Alexander Zverev and the latter can join Jannik Sinner in the Semi Final lineup.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 7-2, + 3.28 Units (9 Units Staked, + 36.44% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th November)

The last Singles match on Day 4 of the tournament finally produced the first Semi Finalist at the end of year tournament on the ATP Tour.

The home fans will be very happy that the defending Champion Jannik Sinner has made it through, but now the attention will turn to the other Italian playing in the ATP Finals.

Lorenzo Musetti will have to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Evening Session, but the permutations will become very clear to the World Number 9 before he enters the court. Earlier on Taylor Fritz and Alex De Minaur conclude Group action with all four players still having avenues through to the last four, although there are clearer paths for some more than others.

Day 5 sees this Group come to a conclusion and we will have one Semi Final match confirmed for Saturday, while needing Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime to fight it out for the last of the final four spots.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The final placings in this Group at the ATP Finals will be decided on Thursday and all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final of the tournament with a single match to play.

This is rarely the case at the end of year Championships, but the permutations are obviously easier for some players compared with others.

Alex De Minaur has been very open about his admitting his frustrations having led Lorenzo Musetti 5-3 in the final set on Tuesday and looking on course to eliminate the Italian. Instead it was De Minaur who has been left on the edge of elimination after losing four games in a row to lose the match and be pushed to the bottom of the Group.

The only saving grace for Alex De Minaur is that he won a set in that match- he admitted to the press that the frustration of throwing away another winning position has been getting to him, but winning that set means the Australian can move through to the Semi Final with a straight sets win and a defeat for Musetti in the other match in the Group.

Of course the immediate pressure is on Alex De Minuar to win this match in straight sets and you do have to worry about his emotions and how locked in he is going to be if he does drop a set in this final Group match.

His opponent is Taylor Fritz who beat Lorenzo Musetti to open the Group, but was not able to built on winning the first set tie-breaker in the eventual loss to Carlos Alcaraz. The situation is much clearer for the World Number 6 who will know that he will be playing in the Semi Final on Saturday if he wins this match.

In fact, Taylor Fritz has even more control over his own fate.

He can even afford to lose this match in three sets and go through, although the obvious concern there will be Lorenzo Musetti upsetting Carlos Alcaraz later on.

With that in mind, Taylor Fritz should be able to play with more clarity throughout the time on the court- no matter what happens in the first hour, Fritz will be concentrating on winning the match, whereas Alex De Minaur's own concentration could be adversely affected if he loses either of the first two sets and knows his time in Turin is coming to a conclusion.

Out of the two players, Taylor Fritz has been playing with a bit more overall belief in his tennis and he has put together the stronger numbers.

Alex De Minaur had regularly been getting the better of Taylor Fritz in the head to head, but the latter has been turning that around and has won the last two meetings between the players. They have not met in the 2025 season, but Taylor Fritz did beat Alex De Minaur here in the Group Stage twelve months ago having come from a set behind on that occasion when edging the bigger points.

This time it could be tougher for Alex De Minaur to stay mentally checked into the contest and Taylor Fritz can move into the Knock Out Rounds again at this end of year tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There are sixteen permutation of final results in this Group Stage that would see Carlos Alcaraz make it through to the Semi Final of the ATP Finals and just two that would see him miss out.

Most players who have won two matches in the Group Stage would expect to progress and a win by Alex De Minaur earlier in the day would secure the World Number 1's spot in the last four.

If Taylor Fritz has won the earlier Singles match, that would mean that Carlos Alcaraz needs to win at least a set in this one if he is going to progress.

That would also mean Lorenzo Musetti HAS to win in straight sets, while an Alex De Minaur win would leave the Italian needing any kind of victory to move out of the Group having lost the opening match.

Unlike most football tournaments, matches are not played simultaneously at the end of the Group Stage at this tennis event and so the situation for both players will only become clear once the first match is completed.

It could be a potential factor- will Carlos Alcaraz be fully focused if Alex De Minaur has won and already seen his place booked in the Semi Final? That could depend on how things are shaking up in the other Group, but a Jannik Sinner win on Wednesday will mean the Runner Up in this section will have to face him in the Semi Final.

This could double down the focus for Carlos Alcaraz who may want to retain some momentum by winning all three Group matches, which is the only way he can guarantee top spot in the section.

He will have a lot of respect for Lorenzo Musetti who has shown he can dig into the reserves to keep himself alive in the event having won the last four games played against Alex De Minaur to beat the Australian in the last match in the Group. A defear would have meant elimination, but Musetti showed he could dig deep enough to claw himself out of a hole and has had a day of rest between matches this time.

The three matches played between the players this season will have underlined how competitive Lorenzo Musetti can be against Carlos Alcaraz, although all three were played on clay courts.

Previous hard court meetings between the players have been dominated by the World Number 1 and Carlos Alcaraz has really been able to dictate behind the serve.

This has been a tournament where Alcaraz still has room for improvement on the serve, but he has been returning efficiently and the Lorenzo Musetti serve was under attack against both of his previous opponents. Neither is really as strong as Carlos Alcaraz on the return and he could grind down the home player, regardless of the overall situation for the World Number 9 as far as the progression permutations go.

Those previous hard court results against Carlos Alcaraz are also a factor and this is a match that feels like it could end in a similar scoreline that was faced by Lorenzo Musetti in his opening defeat.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 6-1, + 3.53 Units (7 Units Staked, + 50.43% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th November)

The second Group will complete another round of matches on Wednesday and there is every chance the Semi Final lineup will really begin to take shape by the end of play.

The second match is going to feature the World Number 2 and Italian Number 1, and that is the match where the selection from Day 4 will come.

In the Day Session we do have a battle between Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime, but there is just too much uncertainty around both players to be comfortable in making any selection.

At the time of writing, there still has to be some doubts that Auger-Aliassime will even take to the court having looked completely hobbled in the defeat to Jannik Sinner. He is giving himself as much time as possible to recover, but that makes a selection impossible to make with doubts all about the Canadian.

You could recommend his opponent to get the better of a less than 100% Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton has not been himself since pulling out of the US Open with an injury. That looked like being a season ender, but he has played some tennis without the same level of success since that moment and Shelton is another who may be thinking about Melbourne in January more than having a real belief of having a deep run here.

That is especially the case having lost the opening match against Alexander Zverev and the factors just add up to make it a 'no pick' contest.

You can read my thoughts on the second Singles match scheduled for the Night Session below.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Right off the bat you have to feel this is a very big spread against a potentially very dangerous opponent, but the World Number 2 is going to have the mental advantage having crushed Alexander Zverev for the loss of a single game in the Paris Masters Semi Final a little over a week ago.

That is the most one-sided win in the recent rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev and the latter is always going to believe that his serve offers him a route into any game. He will certainly expect to have more success with that shot in this Group match at the ATP Finals, although the recent numbers in matches between Zverev and Sinner have suggested a big win for the latter was going to come sooner than later.

This is going to be the fourth meeting between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the 2025 season and all of the previous three have been on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner has faced just 4 Break Points in the previous three matches and all of those came in the sole match played between the two in the Vienna Final last month. Only one of those Break Points ended up with the point being won by Alexander Zverev, although that cost Jannik Sinner a set in that Final.

At the same time, Jannik Sinner has created 27 Break Points against the Alexander Zverev serve- he had been wasteful in the first two meetings in Melbourne and Vienna with four breaks of serve from 18 Break Point chances generated, but Jannik Sinner was ruthless in Paris and converted 6/9 in that Semi Final.

Over the course of the season, Jannik Sinner has been one of the top return players and his Break Point conversion rate is ranked in the top three. That made it a matter of time before all of the chances he has been creating against the Alexander Zverev serve would show up on the scoreboard and the Italian is likely to have too much for the World Number 3 in this Group match.

In the last twelve months, Alexander Zverev has had a hard lesson when it comes to competing with the top players on the Tour- in matches against top five Ranked opponents, his service numbers have really dipped, but the biggest worry for a player hoping to compete for a Grand Slam is that he has broken in around 8% of return games played.

This has put a huge amount of pressure on Zverev and Jannik Sinner is likely going to do the same in front of the home fans.

Alexander Zverev did beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group Stage of the ATP Finals here twelve months ago, but had lost six straight matches to top five Ranked opponents before beating Ben Shelton on Sunday. He is going to have to find another level to compete with the defending Champion in this second Group match, although Alexander Zverev will likely remain in a pretty good spot to progress with a single match left to come against Felix Auger-Aliassime (or a replacement if the Canadian is still struggling with his injury).

If he serves at his very best level, Alexander Zverev may keep this close on the scoreboard and this spread will look way to wide.

However, the World Number 3 will have exorcise some mental demons after the embarrassing loss in the French capital just a few days ago and Jannik Sinner may just do enough to find the breaks needed to cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 11th November)

The ATP Finals will continue on Tuesday and we have two Singles matches scheduled from the same Group, which has not been the case in the opening two days at the event thanks to the last place being fought out as late as Saturday.

You do have to wonder if that effort made by Lorenzo Musetti to merely earn a spot in Turin has sapped him of any remaining energy at the end of a long season, but first the two winners in this Group will face one another with a victory likely going to mean progression into the Semi Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Both of these players produced wins in the opening Group matches at the ATP Finals having overcome some nervy moments. Being able to do so should mean both Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz are a little bit 'freer' as they meet in the second Group matches with the winner set to take their place in the Semi Final of the event.

Two wins is usually enough to progress, but that is not always the case and will be dependent on the other match to be played in the Evening Session.

It is no surprise that the organisers have set this one up for the Day Session and that is to ensure Italian Lorenzo Musetti is given the best chance to rest, recover and be prepared to play. With the last place at the Tour Finals only being confirmed on Saturday, the usual format of the event has not been in place in the Group Stage for those involved in this section and that means Taylor Fritz having to play on back to back days.

Tennis players are used to being in that position so it is not expected to be a big factor in this match and Taylor Fritz also has the confidence of having a win under his belt. Previous experiences at the Tour Finals have been very positive for the American and Fritz will feel his serve gives him a shot against any opponent he faces, even one that has had the better of the head to head like Carlos Alcaraz has had in this case.

Taylor Fritz did beat Carlos Alcaraz for the first time in Laver Cup action after the US Open, but it was back to the norm when they played in the Tokyo Final as the World Number 1 came through in straight sets to win yet another title.

While Carlos Alcaraz has not enjoyed the kind of successes you would expect at the ATP Finals, he is going to feel a lot better after battling through an opening win. The Spaniard is very, very comfortable on the hard courts and Carlos Alcaraz will be confident in the match up, even if Taylor Fritz is capable of frustrating him with the serve.

Whenever these two play one another, there is always going to be a lot of pressure on the Taylor Fritz serve knowing he becomes a bigger and bigger underdog within every point the longer the rally develops.

Carlos Alcaraz has had a big edge in the serving and returning numbers in the head to head and that has led to four wins in five matches played against one another. In three of the four wins, Alcaraz has had at least two more breaks of serve compared with Taylor Fritz and everything is pointing to the top Seed having the edge over the course of this latest match too.

There is room for improvement in the Carlos Alcaraz performance after the one produced to get the better of Alex De Minaur, but he has shown time and again that he has the game plan to make things very difficult for Taylor Fritz. The expectation is of more of the same and the likelihood is that Alcaraz will find two more breaks of serve than the World Number 6 and that should see him through to a cover in another winning effort.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: He has won the last three head to head matches against this opponent, including both played in 2025, and that may just give Lorenzo Musetti the belief to push on and win this Group match at the ATP Finals.

Another loss will likely mean elimination for whoever ends up on the wrong side of this match.

Lorenzo Musetti made it really clear how much he wanted to compete at the ATP Finals in Turin and that meant putting in a monumental effort in Athens when reaching the Final played on Saturday. He lost that to Novak Djokovic and needed the withdrawal to take his place at the ATP Finals, and you do have to wonder if there is much left in the tank.

It certainly did not look the case in a relatively straight-forward loss to Taylor Fritz on Monday- Lorenzo Musetti started off pretty well, but he looked more and more tired as the match went on and that was really evident in the service games.

A little more than twenty-four hours rest is not going to make a lot of difference and Musetti is going to need the Italian fans to get firmly behind him, as they did on Monday to their credit. Being an Evening Session match should mean the fans are more 'up' for this match, which can help too, but Lorenzo Musetti has played a lot of tennis since Friday and spent a lot of hours on the court.

All of that is going to be tested by Alex De Minaur who is one of the top defenders on the Tour and who will have last played on Sunday when coming up short against the World Number 1.

Losing both matches to Lorenzo Musetti in 2025 will perhaps be on the mind, but those were defeats on clay courts, while the previous loss in 2024 was on the grass courts. The sole hard court match was played in a very different atmosphere at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Alex De Minaur came through in four sets in an environment where he would have been heavily backed from the stands, the complete opposite to what awaits on Tuesday evening.

The most recent match between the pair in Madrid was dominated by Lorenzo Musetti, but Alex De Minaur will have regrets about the loss in Monte Carlo. In the first three matches between the pair, the Australian had dominated the number of Break Points created and De Minaur may be able to outlast Lorenzo Musetti in this match.

Alex De Minaur will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Carlos Alcaraz, but he can keep his opponent out there for long enough to slow him down. That will then really become evident on the return with De Minaur likely happy to sit in during rallies and just allow Lorenzo Musetti to be worn down and eventually this may lead to a solid enough victory to keep Alex De Minaur alive in the tournament.

The home fans will push Lorenzo Musetti to bring his best throughout, but the feeling is that he has left something in Athens after fighting so hard to merely make the ATP Finals in Turin and that will leave the World Number 9 short of the energy that is going to be needed in this match.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 4-0, + 3.22 Units (4 Units Staked, + 80.50% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 10th November)

A couple of tie-breakers needed to go in favour of the two selections made on Sunday at the opening of the ATP Finals, and that was key to seeing both return as winners.

It is a much more positive start to the ATP Finals compared with the WTA Finals last week in Riyadh, but that tournament ended with some strong results to produce a profit and so there is still plenty of work to do before the end of the 2025 season.

Two more matches are set to be played on Monday as both Groups conclude the opening round robin in Turin.

The selections from the two Singles matches can be read below.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Playing at the ATP Finals is a big achievement for any player, but there was a clear motivation for Lorenzo Musetti to make his debut at the tournament being hosted in his home country.

That meant taking in a tournament in Athens last week where Lorenzo Musetti had to win the title- he reached the Final on Saturday, but was beaten by Novak Djokovic, although it was later announced that the Serb would not take part in the ATP Finals and so Musetti comes into the draw.

He would have preferred a bit more rest after playing an almost three hour Final on Saturday and being scheduled in the Day Session at the ATP Finals in Turin on Monday. Motivation is high and that will help Lorenzo Musetti in finding some energy, but it looks a tough spot for him, even when beginning this tournament facing an opponent he has beaten in each of the last three meetings on the Tour.

The last of those was at the Paris Olympics and that was on a clay court, but Lorenzo Musetti also holds a big win over Taylor Fritz in the Wimbledon Quarter Final in 2024 and that will give him confidence even if he has not faced the American over the last sixteen months.

The sole previous hard court meeting between the players was won by Taylor Fritz who reached the Final in Tokyo since the US Open, but who had some disappointing tournaments in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. The last two tournaments were played on indoor hard courts, but Taylor Fritz has reached the Semi Final and the Final in his two previous appearances in the ATP Finals and only Jannik Sinner got the better of Fritz in the tournament last year.

It does feel that the Taylor Fritz serve is going to be key to the outcome of this opening Group match.

Lorenzo Musetti has had a big year and did reach a peak career World Ranking back in June, but he is just 1-6 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. His numbers have suggested he has been struggling to compete with the very best players on the Tour and Lorenzo Musetti just put in a huge week of tennis to merely make it to Turin, which could leave him short of the energy needed in this opening outing.

Improving the return continues to be the challenge for Taylor Fritz if he is going to take the next step and win a Grand Slam title, but he should find a way to get into the Musetti return games in this match. That should give the World Number 4 an opportunity to create the Break Points to put himself into a position to won and cover the handicap line set on Monday and Taylor Fritz looks more likely to do that and snap his three match losing run to this opponent.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: If he serves as he did in the Paris Masters Final, Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to make short work of covering this handicap mark.

However, all of the pressure is on his shoulders having lost each of the three hard court matches played against Jannik Sinner this season and now facing to face the defending Champion in a tournament where he is going to be getting some huge support from the stands.

Felix Auger-Aliassime did give Sinner a scare in the US Open Semi Final but the World Number 2 was perhaps not fully healthy in that match. And even then, Jannik Sinner was able to recover from an awkward second set to come through in four sets and he was pretty comfortable in the win over the Canadian in Paris a little over a week ago.

In two of the three hard court matches played over the last three months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has not been able to do much against the Jannik Sinner serve. This has kept the scoreboard pressure building on him and it was only some wasted chances in the Paris Masters that prevented the Italian from pulling away in that Final.

Jannik Sinner took the first Break Point on that day, but he was not able to take any of the next five played across two games and that just allowed Felix Auger-Aliassime to build some rhythm and confidence.

There is no doubt that the Auger-Aliassime serve is a major weapon, but his hold percentage has dipped to below 80% when only considering matches against top five Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025. His return remains erratic to say the least and that is also very notable when Felix Auger-Aliassime has gone up against the biggest names on the Tour.

As long as Jannik Sinner continues to serve at his current level, he will be relatively comfortable protecting this shot and that should allow him to play with some aggression on the return.

Felix Auger-Aliassime will be asked to serve at his absolute best level to stick with the World Number 2 and we have seen him fall away a couple of times, which makes the effort in Paris feel like the exception to the norm.

It is a big spread, and one that could become awkward very early in this Group match, but Jannik Sinner looks capable of covering and he will want to lay down an early marker to rival Carlos Alcaraz, who had a solid win on Sunday in his own opening match.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 2-0, + 1.72 Units (2 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)

ATP Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 9th November)

It was no surprise that Novak Djokovic took part in the ATP Athens event, which concluded on Saturday, especially with the connections he has to the new event.

He went on and won the title, which would have meant Lorenzo Musetti missed out on playing in the ATP Finals in Turin, but it was later announced that Djokovic will not take part.

This has pushed the Italian into the main draw, but the absence of Novak Djokovic is a blow to the tournament, even if he would have been third favourite behind the two top players in the Rankings. The Serb is clearly thinking ahead to January and being ready to compete as well as he can at his favourite Grand Slam, where Djokovic is perhaps most likely to win another major.

Eight players will still be playing in Turin with a big title on the line, although it would take a brave person to pick anything other than another Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Final in a hard court event.

Roger Federer suggested organisers are making conditions uniform enough to ensure both Alcaraz and Sinner have the best chance to continue to reach Finals and win big titles, and everything suggests both will be playing in the Final next weekend.

The WTA Finals began slowly for the Picks, but Elena Rybakina's win in the Final meant a winning week.

Backing that up in the last tournament of 2025 would confirm a winning season and that is the focus in the days ahead.

With the last place at the tournament only confirmed on Saturday, it means both each Group will have one match played on Sunday and Monday respectively before the tournament perhaps moves into a more usual format.

The ATP Finals begin on Sunday and the opening two selections can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The Davis Cup is the official end of the 2025 ATP season, but this is the last big Singles event of the year before players can take some time away from the sport and just reset.

Winning the ATP Finals is a big achievement and Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to add this trophy to his growing Grand Slam collection.

He won two of the four Grand Slams played in 2025, but twelve months ago the Spaniard failed to get out of the Group Stage at this event. This time Carlos Alcaraz will likely end the year as the World Number 1 as long as he makes it through to the Semi Final, although the ambitions will be much greater than merely getting through to the Knock Out Rounds.

The opening match will be a test, but Carlos Alcaraz has won another title since the US Open success and he has had another strong year on the hard courts.

First up is another match against Alex De Minaur, which will be the third time the two players have faced off in 2025 and Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous matches between the players. When they met on an indoor hard court back in February, Carlos Alcaraz did need to come through in three sets and that will give Alex De Minaur some confidence.

The Australian will have been disappointed with the defeat at the US Open in the Quarter Final, especially considering how close that match had been, but that has not prevented Alex De Minaur from putting together a solid Asian swing. It means Alex De Minaur is the World Number 7 and he has reached the business end of a number of tournaments in what has been a solid year on this surface.

Over the course of the year, Alex De Minaur has shown an improved serve and that has made things easier for him.

However, the test for De Minaur is trying to impose himself a little more when it comes to facing the very best players on the Tour.

He has a 1-6 record on the hard courts against top ten Ranked opponents this year and his service numbers have dipped significantly in those matches. In those seven matches, Alex De Minaur has won around 10% fewer service points and that means holding in 70% of games played, which is always going to be something that puts him under significant pressure against the very best opponents.

It is a pressure that has meant only breaking in 14% of return games and so the edge has to be with the current World Number 1 to make a strong start to the tournament.

Despite the head to head record, this has been a match up that has caused Carlos Alcaraz some problems and that will have to be respected.

The Spaniard will be well aware of that too, but he should have enough to just about cover this line, even in a competitive outing.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Ben Shelton: Being in the same Group as Jannik Sinner means this opens as a pivotal match in the section when Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton.

Both players have not played as well as they would have liked when facing top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season and that is something that will need to change significantly in 2026 if Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton have real ambitions of winning a Grand Slam title. The tennis draw format means the likelihood is that they would have to beat both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz if they were to win a Grand Slam title and they both had runs ended by the Italian at the Australian Open.

They will have to face Jannik Sinner later in the Group, but the focus here will be on one another Alexander Zverev has found a way to get the better of Ben Shelton in meetings on the Tour.

All four have been won by the World Number 3 and Alexander Zverev has beaten Ben Shelton on all three surfaces in 2025.

This has to give him confidence, although facing the Shelton serve on an indoor hard court is going to be a huge challenge for every opponent that steps across the net from the American in Turin.

An injury forced Ben Shelton out of the US Open, which hurt massively, and the worry for his fans is that he has not shown a lot of form since then.

Early losses in Shanghai, Basel and Paris means Ben Shelton comes into this one with little match time and confidence and he may struggle to stick with Alexander Zverev at key moments.

Alexander Zverev reached the Final in Vienna and the Semi Final in Paris and he should be able to largely handle the potential scoreboard pressure with his own serve being very effective. The numbers have not been quite as strong as 2024 in the hard court matches played over the last eleven months, but Alexander Zverev will be confident he can contain the Ben Shelton return having held almost 98% of service games played against this opponent.

Tie-breakers are likely going to be needed, but Alexander Zverev should have enough to earn a victory to cover this handicap line set.

He is a two time previous winner at the ATP Finals, including the first played here in Turin and Alexander Zverev can maintain his edge over Ben Shelton.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 161-133, + 12.01 Units (390 Units Staked, + 3.08% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Picks 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 17th November)

The last big Singles match in the 2024 season will decide the Champion of the World Tour Finals and it is a match that we have already seen in Turin.

Both Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner were playing in the same Group and they will meet with the title on the line on Sunday in what is also a repeat of the US Open Final from September.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: After wins over Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon and the US Open, Taylor Fritz dug in to see off the German in a very close, competitive Semi Final on Saturday.

This means Taylor Fritz has surpassed his own expectations of the tournament and he has certainly gotten the mental edge over Zverev, but backing that up and winning the biggest title of his career is going to be another significant challenge for the American.

He may have had a bit more time to rest and recover ahead of the Final, but Jannik Sinner made very easy work of Casper Ruud in his own Semi Final and so that is not expected to be a factor.

There is no doubt that the toughest win that Sinner has had in this tournament was against Taylor Fritz in the Group- he has broken the other three opponents at least three times, but Jannik Sinner was 'only' able to do that twice against Fritz in that match.

What should be noted is that Jannik Sinner had considerably more success on the return of serve against Taylor Fritz than anyone has managed in Turin. Taylor Fritz has won at least 70% of the service points played in each of the three wins this week, but that number dropped to 62% against Jannik Sinner and there is no doubt that the underdog will be under more pressure to hit his marks.

At his best, Taylor Fritz can do that, but he invested a lot into the Semi Final win over Alexander Zverev and the scoreboard pressure could be tough to deal with.

Jannik Sinner has served at a high level all week and he will likely keep Taylor Fritz contained on this side of the court, while building the pressure with his return.

Covering this spread will not be easy, especially if Taylor Fritz wins the toss and decides to serve first.

However, the Italian World Number 1 has found a way to get on top of the Fritz serve for long enough to create the Break Points and, ultimately, move into a position to win the title with a good looking win on the scoreboard. Last season Sinner had to face an opponent he had beaten in the Group Stage in the Final of this tournament and was beaten by Novak Djokovic, but twelve months on and Sinner is the best hard court player in the world who can round out 2024 with yet another strong win on the surface.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 10-4, + 4.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 31.86% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 16th November)

After exiting the World Tour Finals, Carlos Alcaraz has admitted he hopes to still play alongside Rafael Nadal at the Davis Cup in what is the final tournament Nadal will be playing in his professional career.

Illness has proven to be too difficult to overcome for Alcaraz who finished behind Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in the Group Stage of this tournament.

Losses to both of those opponents will have disappointed the Spaniard, but his attention will soon turn to 2025 and the Australian Open which begins in less than two months time. He might have won the French Open and Wimbledon, but Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to have a much bigger impact at the two hard court Grand Slam tournaments played next year.

Four players remain in contention for the title here in Turin and the two Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Saturday.

The home favourite, Jannik Sinner has to be the favourite to win the title, but Alexander Zverev, Taylor Frtiz and Casper Ruud will all be playing with some confidence having won at least two of the three matches played over the last week.

Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final at the World Tour Finals is featuring two players that have been used to playing one another in big settings already in 2024.

The media have been pushing Alexander Zverev's credentials this week after a strong run through the Group Stage, but the German himself has been trying to cool down the growing expectations around him. He has previously won the Tour Finals and Zverev is one of the better indoor hard court players in the world, but the match up with Taylor Fritz is one that has frustrated him.

The defeat at Wimbledon will have really stung considering Alexander Zverev won the first two sets, and Taylor Fritz franked that victory by beating this opponent at the US Open on his way to the Final in New York City. A win at the Laver Cup means Taylor Fritz has beaten Alexander Zverev in three matches in a row and his own efforts here in Turin have been impressive enough to suggest the underdog could give Zverev all he can handle.

Both players will be keen to bring their best serving abilities onto the court for this one and it does feel like it will be a match where Break Points will be hard to create.

Alexander Zverev has been really impressive behind serve throughout the tournament- he 'only' won 71% of his service points in the last match against Carlos Alcaraz having won at least 80% in each of his first two matches, but that number against the Spaniard meant Zverev only allowed 2 Break Points in the entire match.

It has certainly allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom on the return, although he had not been at his best in that side of his tennis before the victory over Carlos Alcaraz.

Improving on the return will be a huge test for Alexander Zverev considering he has won just 28% of points played on the Taylor Fritz serve in four matches in 2024. The American has perhaps not served as well as he can at his best, but it is clearly a shot that bothers Alexander Zverev who has not really found consistent answers to deal with it.

Since beating Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz has also had issues on the return of serve, while his returning numbers in the head to head with Alexander Zverev are not that much stronger than the higher Ranked player.

It all points to a tight match that could feature two very competitive sets at the very least.

The underdog is appealing considering how well he has matched up with Alexander Zverev, but the latter deserves respect for putting together the stronger week so far. Both players could serve well enough to see this one surpass the total games line set, even in a two set match, and that looks the best approach to what could be a really good Semi Final.

Casper Ruud + 5.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It would be foolish to suggest that anything other than a win for Jannik Sinner is the most likely outcome of this Semi Final.

However, that does not mean that the handicap does not look a little too wide and not giving Casper Ruud enough respect.

It is far from ideal having to play the second Group match on Friday and then the Semi Final on Saturday, especially as Casper Ruud will have twenty-four hours less than Jannik Sinner to prepare for this match. He was dragged into a three set match with Andrey Rublev, although the win will have given Ruud some confidence that he may have been lacking before the tournament began.

Casper Ruud was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group too and he did give Alexander Zverev a test before going down so there is every chance that the Norwegian can at least test Jannik Sinner.

Beatng the World Number 1 is a different challenge than merely trying to keep things competitive and the home crowd are going to be firmly behind their player. So far it has helped Jannik Sinner come through his three matches very impressively and the Grand Slam titles won in Melbourne and New York City have just underlined the very strong performances Sinner has put together on the hard courts.

His serve has been very impressive and that has been evident through the week in Turin, where Jannik Sinner reached the Final twelve months ago. The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will dominate on the serve here, but the conditions should allow Casper Ruud to at least try and dictate the points behind his own serve and that should mean he has an opportunity to keep this one close on the scoreboard.

Two previous matches between these players have both been played on an indoor hard court at the same event in Vienna in 2020 and 2021. Both were won by Jannik Sinner, although the second was easier on the scoreboard, and he is capable of blowing any opponent away on this surface.

That will always be a concern when you are on the other side of the net when opposing the World Number 1, but Ruud has played well enough to perhaps go down in a couple of competitive sets. Despite the impressive performances from Sinner, he has not been able to cover this handicap mark against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev and it may be another relatively comfortable, but not a blowout win.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 15th November)

We are down to the final two Group matches at the World Tour Finals and both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be resting up and waiting to see who will be facing them in the Semi Final.

The second match is going to be the key, but the first on Day 6 looks full of quality before we get down to the business end of the event in Turin.

Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz over 22.5 games: When the Groups were drawn out for the ATP World Tour Finals, the meeting between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz would have been one that was expected to decide the top spot in the section.

This may yet be the case, but Carlos Alcaraz is still fighting his way back from the upset defeat to Casper Ruud in his opening match. He admitted he was not feeling his best prior to the match with Andrey Rublev to save his tournament, but afterwards Carlos Alcaraz stated he had been able to move better than in his opening match as he beat Rublev in straight sets.

It gives him a real chance to still make the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz will go a long way towards progression if he is able to win this one in straight sets.

However, Alexander Zverev will be doing all he can to at least secure one of the first two sets as he still has a potential path towards elimination, despite beating both Rublev and Ruud in straight sets. A heavy defeat to Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud winning the other match in straight sets could see Zverev eliminated so the focus for the German will be on securing at least a set against Carlos Alcaraz that will push him through.

Confidence should not be an issue for Alexander Zverev who beat Carlos Alcaraz at the World Tour Finals last year and who followed up by eliminating the Spaniard at the Australian Open. The two meetings since Melbourne have both been won by Alcaraz, including that epic French Open Final, but the indoor conditions suits Alexander Zverev.

Those conditions have certainly helped the ball fly from the serve and Zverev has dominated behind that shot with over 80% of points won and the German yet to face a Break Point. The serve is certainly working well enough to help Alexander Zverev rattle through some games and keep the scoreboard pressure on an opponent that has to win well to give himself the best chance of earning a spot in the next Round.

After a sub-par serving day against Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz was much better next time out with 78% of points won and containing the Andrey Rublev threat. You have to credit Alexander Zverev for the wins produced this week, but he has not overwhelmed opponents with the return of serve and there are likely going to be some very tight margins to deal with when these top players meet.

We saw our first three set match in the Singles tournament on Day 5 and it would bot be a surprise if this one follows that route.

There is a definite case to be made for the total games line to be surpassed if both Zverev and Alcaraz continue to serve as they did last time out. Break Points might be hard to find and tie-breakers are looming, which should go a long way to getting passed this total line set, even if the third set is not needed.

Casper Ruud v Andrey Rublev: This is the very last match of the Group Stage at the 2024 tournament and all will become very clear in terms of permutations for both of these players before they head out onto the court in Turin. Neither will want to overburden themselves with the numbers, but it will be much clearer what they need to do in order to progress to the Semi Final.

Things are much tougher for Andrey Rublev, which is no surprise considering he has lost both matches played in straight sets. He needs Alexander Zverev to beat Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the other match in the Group played earlier in the day and Andrey Rublev would then have to win in straight sets and there is no other pathway for him to make his way to the Semi Final at this event again.

For Casper Ruud the picture will only really clear up fully at the end of the Zverev-Alcaraz match too, but his focus has to be on winning this match in straight sets. Doing that should be good enough to progress no matter what has happened earlier in the day, although there will still be some permutations to work out just in case Ruud was to drop a set.

As mentioned, there is actually a pathway for Casper Ruud to progress even after a three set defeat, but no tennis player will be thinking about trying to do anything other than winning this match.

Casper Ruud had been in miserable form in the lead up to the World Tour Finals, but the win over Carlos Alcaraz, even a limited Alcaraz, will have provided him a boost. He did not play badly against Alexander Zverev, but Ruud was not really able to have a decent impact on the return of serve and that ultimately proved costly when Zverev took the one and only Break Point he created.

Serving like that will put Andrey Rublev under pressure and the Russian has just shown a bit of fragility in both of his two losses. While there have been times when he has looked good, Rublev has dropped serve twice in each defeat and he is always likely to throw in one or two bad service games to give an opponent a chance.

This will be very much in the Casper Ruud thinking, while the Norwegian may also hold a mental advantage knowing he has beaten Rublev at this event in both 2021 and 2022.

The first of those meetings was very competitive and Andrey Rublev may count himself unlucky to lose, but Casper Ruud dismissed his challenge easily in the 2022 Semi Final and is serving well enough to find an edge in this one.

The odds feel reflective of the overall form of the two players heading into this event in Turin, but Casper Ruud has served well enough this week to stay with Andrey Rublev until what will feel like an inevitable poor service game. If the Russian is officially eliminated, it may be tough to really put in the work to turn around the match if things begin to go wrong and Casper Ruud looks a decent underdog to get behind as he hopes to unexpectedly reach the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-3, + 2.24 Units (10 Units Staked, + 22.40% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November)

The ATP World Tour Finals look to be building towards a potentially special ending, but it has not been the best four days for the fans.

Very little drama has been seen within matches and we have yet to have one match go the distance in the Singles draw.

Big matches are coming up with places in the Semi Final still open to all eight players that have begun this event and that is perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the end of the Group Stage. Things could change very quickly as matches continue to be completed, but it should mean we have focused players heading onto the Turin courts with so much still to play for as the season winds down.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The situation is pretty clear for Taylor Fritz with a single match left in the Group and that begins and end with winning this match.

He cannot secure passage into the Semi Final until the result from the other match in the Group is confirmed, but Fritz can put himself in a strong position if he is able to win this one in straight sets. The 'easier' the scoreboard win looks, the more likely he is to make it through to the Semi Final, which was the minimum ambition the American set for himself when the World Tour Finals began.

However, this is far from a foregone conclusion and that is because Taylor Fritz has had a tough time when facing up to Alex De Minaur.

The Australian has won their last couple of matches, both on the hard courts, and Alex De Minaur has not been eliminated from the tournament despite losing both matches in the Group in straight sets. His margin for error is much smaller than Taylor Fritz in the fact that Alex De Minaur needs to win this one in straight sets and hope Jannik Sinner is able to beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and even then it will come to percentage of games won.

The maths takes a bit of working out, but De Minaur's sole focus has to be winning in straight sets and you do have to wonder how he will be able to pick himself up if he is to drop either of the first two sets played. It is a sport in which the focus is on the court once a player is there, but you have to believe it is a potential factor that Alex De Minaur will perhaps fade if he is not able to progress.

His performances in Turin have been a little disappointing with Alex De Minaur really struggling to have much of an impact on the return, which is a key part of his tennis. Only ONE Break Point has been fashioned in two matches and De Minaur has won less than 21% of return points played, which is a problem when facing someone with the serving capability of Taylor Fritz.

In recent matches between the players, Alex De Minaur has been able to get enough back into play on the return to frustrate his opponent and extract errors from the Taylor Fritz side of the court. You have to think this will be the game plan again, but Alex De Minaur also needs to really pick up his level on the serve if he is going to upset the odds against the American again.

The head to head has to give anyone pause for thought.

However, Taylor Fritz has played the stronger tennis in Turin this week and he should have enough to work his way past this awkward opponent and move into a decent position to Qualify for the Semi Final on Saturday.

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The big question on Thursday has to be 'which Daniil Medvedev is going to be heading out onto the court for this vital last Group match?'

He did not play badly against Taylor Fritz, but was pretty well beaten at the end and looked like he was not having any kind of fun on the court. A lingering injury had been bothering Daniil Medvedev and his behaviour suggested he might already have checked out of the World Tour Finals after a single Group match had been played.

Two days later, Daniil Medvedev dominated Alex De Minaur and was a very comfortable winner against the Australian, which has also reignited his push to make the Semi Final at this tournament.

Of course he is facing the World Number 1 and the home favourite in this final Group match and a player that has really dominated the head to head between these two in recent times.

Jannik Sinner has won both matches in straight sets, but surprisingly that has not been enough to confirm passage into the Semi Final. By the time this match is scheduled to be played, Sinner's place in the next Round may be secured and both of these players will have eyes on the other match in the Group played earlier in the day.

For Sinner the scenario is pretty clear- no matter what happens in the other match, winning one set in this final match would take him through and as Group Winner. Of course winning this match makes for the easiest scenario, while there is a chance that a heavy, straight sets defeat in this Group match would potentially eliminate Jannik Sinner if Taylor Fritz has crushed Alex De Minaur in straight sets earlier in the day.

Those game permutations are much more convoluted than the sets breakdown, but it may be something Daniil Medvedev is also working on. He can progress with a straight sets win as long as Taylor Fritz has not won in straight sets too, while a loss may still give Medvedev an opportunity if Alex De Minaur has beaten Taylor Fritz earlier in the day, although the World Number 4 will likely need to win a set.

It is all a little messy with each match in the Group won and lost in straight sets, but Jannik Sinner looks very focused this week and he can beat Daniil Medvedev in this last Group match, even if a Semi Final spot has been achieved.

Jannik Sinner has been serving at a very high level in this event and that will build pressure on Daniil Medvedev if the shoulder is still feeling a little sore. There has also been a definite edge with the World Number 1 when it comes to the return of serve, while the multiple wins racked up over Medvedev, including in very big settings, will only aid the confidence further.

He beat Daniil Medvedev in four sets at the US Open and since then Jannik Sinner has crushed the same opponent in Shanghai and in the exhibition tournament held in Saudi Arabia (exhibition in terms of being a Ranking event, the money on offer made it plenty serious).

In his current form, it is really hard to look past Jannik Sinner franking those hard court victories with another in front of the home crowd, even if a place in the Semi Final has been secured by the result from the other Group match.

Daniil Medvedev had a bit more focus in his win over Alex De Minaur, but that has been a better match up than facing the World Number 1 and we may see the Russian quickly lose hope in this one. He does become very motivated when the crowd get on his back, but there is every chance that Medvedev will fall away in this one and Jannik Sinner can secure a third straight win to really push his credentials as a potential Champion of the event this weekend.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 0.92 Units (8 Units Staked, + 11.50% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 12th November)

This is the rare tournament in which a player is back out on court just a couple of days after a loss and the two defeated players from Day 1 will open Day 3 in a bid to keep their Singles dream alive.

Another defeat does not necessarily mean the end, but it is very difficult to come through a Group after losing twice and so there is considerable pressure on Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur.

Both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz have produced a win already in the Group and they will be looking to secure passage into the Semi Final without being in a pressurised situation in their final match.

Both matches look pretty good on paper, even at the end of a very long season for all competing in Turin.

Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: This is not quite an official elimination match, but the two losing players from Day 1 meet in the second round robin of Group matches knowing that another loss would make it very difficult to progress. Losing matches is one thing, but losing in straight sets has put both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur in a difficult position as they look to bounce back from the opening defeats.

Neither player will be feeling that good about their level of performance in the first matches played in Turin, but Alex De Minaur may feel he has lost to the player that is likely to dominate the Group.

On the other side, Daniil Medvedev's defeat to Taylor Fritz has left him in a more precarious position and there is little doubt that he has to show more desire than he did when falling into a losing position in the opening match. The antics on the court have gotten some fans a little agitated when they watch Medvedev play, but he is not someone afraid to show what he is thinking and the body language was not very good on Sunday.

It has been a tough year all around for Daniil Medvedev and you do have to question how much desire he has left, even if there is still a passage through to the World Tour Finals Knock Out Rounds. He was competitive against Fritz, but the mentality looked a little fragile and things spiralled away from Daniil Medvedev, which has to be a concern in this match up.

The head to head does read in favour of Daniil Medvedev, but he is facing an opponent in Alex De Minaur who is unlikely to give points away. The sole meeting between the players in 2024 was at the French Open and it was the Australian who came through in four sets to reach the Quarter Final, while Alex De Minaur is someone who would have the hard courts down as his favourite surface.

Alex De Minaur will know he needs to be a lot better than he was in the defeat to Jannik Sinner on Sunday, but he has shown some decent form on the indoor European hard courts in the build up to the World Tour Finals. He has won seven of the eleven matches played since the US Open, although the De Minaur numbers have dipped considerably behind serve and return.

This should mean Daniil Medvedev has the edge, although his own form has been inconsistent and the player has not looked completely happy being on the court. That does lessen enthusiasm for backing him to bounce back and you can see a situation where Daniil Medvedev barely goes through the motions if this match begins to get away from him.

However, unlike the first match, Alex De Minaur is going to offer up more chances on the return for Daniil Medvedev and that may just keep him interested. There should be plenty of Break Points for both considering the issue Medvedev may be dealing with at the moment, but the World Number 4 has the capabilities of bouncing back with his experience of the format perhaps a telling factor too.

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz over 21.5 games: Both of these players opened their World Tour Finals with a victory, although the overall ambitions may still be a little different for Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz.

The World Number 1, Australian Open and US Open Champion, and home favourite Jannik Sinner has to be targeting the title having reached the Final twelve months ago before going down to Novak Djokovic. Winning the Shanghai Masters allowed Sinner to spend a bit of time away from the Tour and he looked fresh and motivated when beating Alex De Minaur with little fuss a couple of days ago.

His opponent also earned a straight sets win, but Taylor Fritz has made it clear that his main ambition is to outperform his World Ranking by reaching the Semi Final at this end of year tournament. Some may feel that is an underwhelming goal, but Fritz has to be given credit for his honesty and there may be a good opportunity to reach the Final with the way the other Group could potentially shape up.

Despite the opening win, Taylor Fritz knows he likely needs at least one more and even picking up a set in a losing effort would put him in a strong position to progress. Of course, the player nor his camp should be thinking about nothing more than their bid to earn the upset against an opponent who beat Taylor Fritz in the US Open Final back in September.

In the main it was a dominant win for Jannik Sinner with Taylor Fritz not serving as well as he would have wanted in that US Open Final. So much of the American's tennis is based around his serve and he will need to be a lot better in this Group match if he is going to give Sinner something different to think about.

The last two professional meetings between these players have both ended in wins for Jannik Sinner and both on the hard courts so you can understand why he is such a big favourite ahead of this match. However, Taylor Fritz may feel he can dictate rallies as long as he can his marks on the serve and he has shown that he can make enough returns to use scoreboard pressure to try and break through the Jannik Sinner wall in front of him.

The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will win and move to the brink of making it through to the Semi Final, but Taylor Fritz can be more competitive than he was at Flushing Meadows. The indoor conditions should help and both players are capable of serving well enough to help this match surpass the total games line set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev to Win @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.64 Units (4 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)