ATP Finals Day 8 Tennis Pick 2025- Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz (Sunday 16th November)

The last Singles match of the 2025 Tennis season is fittingly going to be played between the top two players in the world.

Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been peaking into the Final of this event and it would be disappointing if this is not another solid match to add to the ever-increasing rivalry.

Two winners from the Semi Final matches has ensured another good tournament for the Picks to round out a solid bounce back season.

Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 games: This is the sixth meeting in the 2025 season between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner and it perhaps fitting that the Spaniard holds the World Number 1 Ranking having beaten his rival in four of the five matches played.

That includes wins in the French Open and US Open Final, although Jannik Sinner won the Wimbledon Final, and these two players are going to be expected to dice up the Grand Slam titles again next year.

This is a big title to add to the collection- Jannik Sinner won it last year and is playing in front of the home fans, which brings additional momentum, while Carlos Alcaraz has yet to win the ATP Finals.

Both have been playing well and the serves have been key.

Once again that is going to be the case with the player who is able to get a bit more out of this shot likely able to dictate rallies and keep the pressure on the other. Getting the first strike in has to be important for both as they look to put the pressure on the rival across the net, but there will be swings in momentum as has been the case in the previous matches played in 2025.

Rarely have matches been finished in routine straight sets.

We should see both have their chances to take control and a deciding set at the end of this year feels right.

Jannik Sinner is the favourite and by some margin, which is a surprise, and the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz simply because of the way the head to head has developed.

However, the last Pick of the season will be looking for this match to surpass the total games line set.

As long as the two continue to serve at the levels shown in the last few days in Turin, it is a match that could potentially move past this total line even in a straight sets win for either player.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 9-4, + 3.04 Units (13 Units Staked, + 23.38% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2025 (Thursday 13th November-Monday 17th November)

Time has been a factor this week and that means that some of the additional NFL Picks will have to be placed in this thread on Sunday.

A longer thread should be put together for Week 12, but at least in this one you can read my thoughts on the selections being made.

It is the time of the season when some momentum is needed with the Picks and the last three all returned winners in Week 10 to make sure we avoided a really bad return. Hopefully that can be carried into this one and the following selections can produce a lot more winners than losers.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Pick: The Coaching staff may privately feel that their time in charge of the Miami Dolphins (3-7) is going to come to a conclusion at the end of the 2025 season, while there are questions around Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, and with some trades of key players, those remaining continue to be very focused and the upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 will have everyone feeling good.

This week the Miami Dolphins are playing the Washington Commanders (3-7) out in the Spanish capital in the latest of the international series games that the NFL continue to expand.

There were some concerns about what this season would look like for Miami before the first kick off, but the Washington season has been far below expectations. Injuries have been a real issue, but the Commanders reached the NFC Championship Game last season and they are unlikely to even make the Playoffs right now.

Jayden Daniels has suffered a couple of different injuries, but the one suffered most recently could see him miss the rest of the season if the Washington Commanders are not able to stay in touch with those chasing post-season spots.

Five straight losses have been suffered and the Washington Commanders have fallen apart Defensively in the last couple of games.

An inability to stop the run has made things very difficult for the Commanders and the Defensive Line are set for another significant challenge if the Miami Dolphins are able to pick up from where they left off in the win over the Bills. De'Von Achane had a big game in the win over the Bills and he should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and keep the Dolphins in third and short situations around the field.

He is also going to be a factor in the passing game and Tua Tagovailoa is likely going to have plenty of time to throw the ball in this one.

The Quarter Back will be facing a Secondary that has been banged up and Washington will struggle to contain this Miami team, which is going to put some real pressure on the team when they have the ball.

Without the athleticism of Jayden Daniels and his play-making skills, the Washington Commanders have struggled to run the ball with any consistency in recent games. The Offensive Line is not going to have things as easy they may have done several weeks ago to turn things around considering they are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has just found the right solutions to clamp down on the run.

Marcus Mariota is 32 years old now, but he is still capable of exploiting any running lanes that left in front of him, although the Commanders cannot afford to lose another Quarter Back and so will not ask him to do that too often.

His protection has not really been as strong as Mariota would have liked and the Commanders are banged up on this side of the ball, which means a lack of consistency.

This is not a Miami Secondary with some of the stars of recent years, but they have been competing pretty well and that should give the Dolphins the edge.

Backing up the big win over Buffalo is never going to be easy, especially for what has been a bad team, but recent performances have offered encouragement. With the Defensive unit still playing with some intensity, Miami can do enough to beat the Washington Commanders in Madrid and they can do it behind dominance at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The announcement that CJ Stroud is not going to be able to suit up for the Houston Texans (4-5) will be a disappointment, but you have to give Davis Mills so much credit for the performance produced in the Week 10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

He has been a backup over the last couple of years, but Mills showed he can be very solid in that spot having helped the team fight back and win the game after falling behind by a couple of scores.

That has pushed the Houston Texans back to close to 0.500 for the season and they remain in touch with the teams chasing a Playoff spot. The chances of catching the Indianapolis Colts are not lost with the Houston Texans due to play the AFC South leaders twice before the end of the regular season, but they cannot afford to overlook the Tennessee Titans (1-8).

Plenty of changes will be coming up in the off-season, but the Titans are dangerous as hosts and coming out of a Bye Week.

Losing four games in a row is obviously not a good thing, but the real disappointment has been the lack of competitiveness the Titans have been able to produce in those defeats. Once again they could be finishing with a top Draft Pick, although this time they are likely to trade out of the position and try and earn a quicker rebuild around Cam Ward at Quarter Back.

You do have to feel so sorry for Cam Ward who is in a very difficult spot.

The talent around him is not good enough if the upper management are being honest and it has meant asking far too much out of a rookie Quarter Back.

They failed to score in the first meeting with the Houston Texans and this is going to be another challenging afternoon for Cam Ward and the Titans Offensive unit. Coming out of a Bye means having had more preparation time to help out, but the Titans have found it very difficult to run the ball and that has heaped the pressure on Ward.

Adding to that is the inability of the Titans Offensive Line to keep the pass rush from out of the backfield and the Houston Texans are likely going to be able to rattle Cam Ward when he is in obvious passing situations. Even with time, the Quarter Back will be tested having to throw into this Houston Secondary considering the lack of playmakers on the team and it could be another day where Tennessee have their issues moving the ball with any kind of consistency.

While the Houston Offensive Line have not exactly been opening up big running lanes in recent games, they should still be good enough to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.

Aiding that is the fact that the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams from pounding the rock against them and this should make the life of Davis Mills very comfortable.

One thing the Titans do do well is rushing the passer, but that becomes all the tougher when a team is playing in third and short spots and Davis Mills should be able to expose a Secondary that has struggled.

As long as the backup Quarter Back avoids turning the ball over, Houston can win this one and cover the spread.

They are due to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but the Texans cannot afford to look past a Divisional opponent after the start made this season and that should keep Houston motivated.

In recent years the Titans have a solid record against the spread when coming out of a Bye Week,  but they are now 0-13 against the spread when facing a fellow AFC team that has a losing record and in a game where Tennessee are given more than 3 points.

This could play out here as Houston chase a third straight win over this AFC South rival.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams are amongst the leading contenders to be playing in the Super Bowl next February and both are going to be wanting to bounce back from disappointing defeats.

It may be a non-Conference game, but it is an important one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and Buffalo Bills (6-3) who share the same record, but that leaves them in different places as far as the standings go.

The Bills are suddenly finding the New England Patriots pulling clear in the AFC East with their 9-2 record, but the Bills will have to travel to Foxboro before the season is concluded. After losing at home, that is a big game for the Buffalo Bills, but they cannot afford to look past a dangerous opponent and make sure they remain touch with the Patriots.

Buffalo also have to avoid thinking ahead to the Thursday Night Football game on deck, but the loss to the Miami Dolphins will have refocused the team.

In Week 11 they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have a lead in the NFC South and they remain the team to beat in the Division.

Injuries are having an impact, but Baker Mayfield has really found a good home as Quarter Back of the Buccaneers and he will be confident he can help the team bounce back after losing to New England.

There is a real chance that Baker Mayfield could have a bit more run support in this game- Bucky Irving will not suit up, but the Buccaneers have to be encouraged by seeing how the Dolphins battered Buffalo on the ground in the Week 10 upset. Merely being in front of the chains would be a big success for the team and really give the Quarter Back an opportunity to keep the chains moving without having to settle and wait for routes to develop down the field out of third and long spots.

He needs that with the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans missing from the passing game, although the competitor in Baker Mayfield will find a way to get things done.

Baker Mayfield will be a little wary of the pass rush that the Buffalo Bills have been generating in recent games and obvious passing situations will be considered a poor outcome for the Buccaneers. Instead they will want to control the clock and make sure Josh Allen, a close friend of Mayfield's, is left to cool down on the sidelines.

Running the ball would be expected to a challenging task for the Bills to take on considering what has been seen from this Tampa Bay Defensive Line this season, but recent games have been disappointing.

You could excuse the performance against the Detroit Lions, but Tampa Bay were bullied by the New England Patriots too and allowed some big runs to be ripped off against them.

James Cook and company should be able to pound the rock with some real success in this one, while Josh Allen is capable of using his legs to move down the field.

The Quarter Back will want a bounce back effort from the whole Offensive unit after the really poor display in losing in Miami last week.

With the Tampa Bay pass rush, the pocket will collapse around Josh Allen, but he can escape that and run down the field, while also being able to have success attacking this Secondary. One of the big criticisms of the Bills upper management is not bringing in a real top Receiver for Josh Allen to target, but they should be able to find enough successes to keep the chains moving in this one and Buffalo can bounce back with a victory.

Head Coach Todd Bowles is very adept at getting his team to perform when set as the road underdog, and that potential distraction by an upcoming Thursday Night Football game for the Buffalo Bills is a concern.

However, Buffalo are looking to bounce back from a loss- Baker Mayfield has been very successful at doing that for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, but his team is still short of Offensive options and the Line of Scrimmage issues on the Defensive side of the ball leaves them vulnerable here.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Three wins in a row having given the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) momentum as they look to keep the pressure on the Denver Broncos at the top of the AFC West. A lot of credit has to be given to the Chargers for finding a way to winning positions even as the injuries have piled up and they can keep that going when travelling to the East Coast to play in the early Sunday slot.

They are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) who have lost three of the last four games and who will still be wondering how they managed to blow the big lead built up against the Houston Texans.

If the Playoffs begun today, the Jaguars would actually be playing in the post-season, but the momentum is against them and injuries have been hurting the team.

Trevor Lawrence is going to be without Travis Hunter for the foreseeable future, while Brian Thomas Jr remains a doubt. The Jaguars have traded for Jakobi Meyers, but he was supposed to complement what the team had rather than having to step up and learn the playbook very quickly to become the top Receiving option available to the Quarter Back.

In recent games, the Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Line have really begun to step up to clamp down on the run and they can have success against this Jacksonville team.

This is going to be a huge part of the game on this side of the ball- if the Chargers can keep the Jacksonville Jaguars in third and long spots, the Los Angeles pass rush is going to cause havoc going against this Offensive Line. With the Secondary playing at the level they have been in recent games, that pressure up front could lead to mistakes and Jacksonville may struggle to move the ball as effectively and efficiently as they will hope.

The Chargers will also look to lean on the run in order to put Justin Herbert in positive field position and not have this makeshift Offensive Line have to give the Quarter Back time to find Receivers down the field.

Injuries to the first two Running Backs on the depth chart have offered Kimani Vidal an opportunity and it is one that he has largely taken, although this week he will be facing a Jacksonville Defensive Line that have played the run quite well.

The Secondary have not operated at the same level and the Jaguars pass rush has been disappointing in recent games.

They should have success facing this Chargers Offensive Line, but Justin Herbert is showing why he is one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL by keeping the team moving in a positive direction. He has not been afraid to take the big hit for the benefit of the team and there are Receivers on the roster who can make the big plays for Justin Herbert and put the Chargers in a position to win this game.

He will make enough plays in this one to put Los Angeles in a position to remain in touch with the AFC West leaders and they can win here.

One factor that does hold back the enthusiasm for backing the Chargers is the fact they have won road games at Miami and Tennessee without covering, but they perhaps should have in the second of those games.

The Jaguars have shown some positive signs this season, but they were beaten at home by the Seattle Seahawks when set as the home underdog and the Chargers may have more Offensive consistency that gives them the edge in this one.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 28-27, - 1.64 Units (55 Units Staked, - 2.98% Yield)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2024 (Saturday 16th November)

The last couple of weeks have been rough to say the least.

A poor run with plenty of poor Picks have disappointed, but there is still some time to turn things back around.

The same thing will be thought by players and teams that are underperforming, although the margin for error is beginning to fade for those that have suffered two losses. One of those teams is the Georgia Bulldogs, but they have still been given enough respect by the Playoff Committee to believe they can force their way into the top twelve by bouncing back and winning out.

It would help if some of the top Big Ten teams lose games in the next couple of weeks, but teams have to focus towards the end from here and that means winning games and not worrying about how the final Rankings will come out.

Week 12 has a number of big games set to be played and the scene can change very quickly in College Football with an upset or two and so there will be drama, as there is every time games are played through the nation.

Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: We are getting closer and closer to the end of the regular season and there are still some big things to achieve for the Texas Longhorns (8-1). They have bounced back from the home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas looked strong out of their Bye Week when crushing the Florida Gators to move to 4-1 within the SEC.

Winning out will put the Texas Longhorns into the SEC Championship Game and they are 3rd in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings already. Reaching the Final with an 11-1 record would see the Longhorns almost certainly playing to reach the National Championship, even if they were to lose the SEC Championship Game.

Two of the remaining three games in the SEC are on the road, but the Longhorns will be strong favourites over the next two weeks before taking on upstart Texas A&M Aggies over Thanksgiving Weekend to round out the season.

Overlooking the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) would be a mistake with the team holding a 3-3 record in the SEC and who have already upset the Tennessee Volunteers at home. The Razorbacks have been blown out in home defeats to the LSU Tigers and Mississippi Rebels since upsetting the Volunteers and so the Bye Week will have given them a chance to reset and to prepare really well for this game.

Motivation will be easy for the home fans with Arkansas and Texas holding a historic rivalry that has been put aside in recent years as they have played in different Conferences. That is not the case now, while it has only been a little over three years since Arkansas crushed Texas at home as a relatively big underdog.

This has not been forgotten by the Longhorns either, but this Texas team is stronger than the one that last visited Arkansas and the Defensive unit look like they could be capable of making the plays to contain the home team.

Having the Bye Week last week means the Razorbacks could have both Quarter Back Taylen Green and Running Back Ja'Quinden Jackson in the lineup. Both are going to be very important for Arkansas in any upset bid they think they can put together, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line has been challenging for most teams this season.

Taylen Green had been putting up some decent numbers of late, but again the challenge is facing a Longhorns Defense that is playing at a high level and with a place in the College Football Playoff in their sights. He may have a bit more time in the pocket than he has been used to in recent games, although the Longhorns will always cause problems in the backfield if a team is playing from third and long against them.

Arkansas have struggled for consistency against the better teams faced on this side of the ball, while the pressure will ramp up on the Razorbacks Defensive unit to produce better than they did against the Tigers and Rebels. Unfortunately, the Razorbacks are facing a Texas team that have plenty of playmakers on the Offensive side of the ball and it is going to be a huge test for them, even out of a Bye Week.

One area where Arkansas have played well is containing the run and they may have some success doing that in this game too, although the Secondary have really had major problems when facing the pass. Now they have to deal with Quinn Ewers, who had five Touchdown passes and well over 300 passing yards in the win over Florida in Week 11.

Quinn Ewers is expected to have his way with this Razorbacks Secondary, although it is never easy playing on the road in College Football.

However, the Longhorns have a long winning run in true road games and it does feel like Texas will be able to fight through a potential shoot out and eventually pull away like the Rebels did against Arkansas.

Rivalry games can produce plenty of upsets so you have to be aware of the potential of the Arkansas Razorbacks... But with a College Football Playoff place to be earned, Texas can push through some rough moments and eventually produce the kind of statement win that will give the Committee plenty of reason to keep the Longhorns Ranked very high in the Playoff places.

Utah Utes @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: Both of these teams moved to the Big 12 from the Pac-12 at the end of last season and there was always a feeling that one of them would potentially challenge for a spot in the Championship Game and eventually the College Football Playoff.

In saying that, most would have expected that to be the Utah Utes (4-5) rather than the Colorado Buffaloes (7-2), although injuries have decimated the hopes of the former.

Take nothing away from Colorado and the performances they have been able to put together as they go into Week 12 as the Number 17 Ranked team in the latest College Football Playoff picture. The margin for error is pretty slim and you would think the Buffaloes need to win out to take their place in the Big 12 Championship Game, while Colorado will likely need to win that to earn a place in the top twelve when the regular season is concluded.

It means there is still some pressurised football for Colorado to play, but the performances will have built the confidence of an already confident team.

Three straight wins have given the Buffaloes momentum, but it has been a really different story for Utah who were incredibly upset with the late flag that led to a very narrow loss to the BYU Cougars last time out. They looked certain to end a four game losing run, but the Utes were downed by a single point in Week 11 and you do have to wonder how much they have left having invested so much to down a rival.

It is the injury to Quarter Back Cam Rising which has begun the slide, but the Utes may actually be down to a third string player in the position this weekend. Brandon Rose will have to take the call if Isaac Wilson is ruled out and this is an incredibly tough spot to be in considering the vastly improved Colorado Defensive unit that will be in front of them.

Running the ball against the Buffaloes Defensive Line has been a tough task for teams and it will be that much harder for the Utah Utes if Colorado do not respect the Quarter Back they are facing. There is faith in the ability of the Buffaloes Secondary, who have restricted teams to under 200 passing yards per game during their three game winning run, while the pass rush has found a way to get home.

After putting in such an effort to beat the Cougars, the Utah Utes may struggle for any kind of consistency when they have the ball in their hands and that could allow the surprising Buffaloes to pull clear for an impressive win.

Head Coach Deion Sanders deserves a lot of credit for the work done in his short time with Colorado and some believe it is an inevitability that he will move into a role in the NFL sooner rather than later. He has some very talented players on the roster, who are expected to be First Round Draft Picks and high ones at that, although Sanders has a huge amount of respect for the Coaching that is being done in Utah and how tough that could make things for his team.

Like the Utes, it may not be easy for the Buffaloes to have a lot of consistent success on the ground which means the onus will be on Quarter Back Shedeur Sanders to try and make plays against a tough Utah Secondary. His numbers during this winning run have been impressive, but Colorado will know only too well how touch Utah can make things with seven defeats in a row to this opponent.

The last time they met in Boulder, Utah crushed Colorado by 42 points, although you can imagine that scoreline has been spoken about a lot this week to just remind the home players to redeem themselves. Shedeur Sanders did not face Utah himself though and he will feel he can use the quality playmakers around him to make the plays needed to win this game.

This is a big spread, but it is an easy argument to make that 24 points could be all that Colorado need to cover, especially if the Defensive unit can just bamboozle a potentially inexperienced Quarter Back heading out for Utah. Deion Sanders will point out how well Kyle Whittingham Coaches with the fact that Utah have not really been blown out during this five game losing run, but the team have not scored a lot of points in those games and Colorado have reached at least 28 points in seven straight games.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Being an Independent means the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) will not have a Conference Championship to show the College Football Playoff Committee and earn a spot in the final twelve team Rankings. However, they are being given plenty of respect already with teams falling to two losses around them and the Fighting Irish are Number 8 in the last Rankings released.

The schedule has not really been one that could help the Fighting Irish, although they are set to face the unbeaten Army Black Knights in Week 13, which could be a huge game for both teams.

First up is a home game with the Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) who upset the Pittsburgh Panthers last weekend after an injury to the young Pittsburgh Quarter Back. One more win is still needed to earn Bowl eligibility, but the upset will give the Cavaliers a real boost in confidence ahead of a tough end to the season.

Producing enough consistency on the Offensive side of the ball will be the challenge for the Virginia Cavaliers, who have been struggling to run the ball in recent games. They are now facing a Fighting Irish Defensive Line that have really been very strong at the Line of Scrimmage and who will be looking to make Virginia as one-dimensional as possible as they continue to not only look to win games, but to win impressively.

One of the key Notre Dame Linemen will be missing on Saturday, but there is still every chance that the Fighting Irish can give this Virginia Offensive Line fits. Protecting Anthony Colandrea is the key for the Cavaliers, but that has been a hard task to achieve of late and Notre Dame have a Secondary that will not allow anything to be converted easily.

It should mean the Fighting Irish avoid another big upset having suffered one earlier in the season, but covering the spread will not be easy.

The Fighting Irish will want to run the ball and use that to open things up for Quarter Back Riley Leonard and there is a balance to this Offensive unit that Notre Dame will want to maintain. You have to credit the Virginia Defensive Line in the way they have played the run, although they will not have faced too many Offensive Lines like the one that Notre Dame are going to be running out onto the field.

For much of the season, Notre Dame have worn opponents down on the ground and this has allowed Leonard to show off some of his talents when it comes to throwing the ball down the field. The Quarter Back has an ability to tuck the ball and run for First Downs on his own, and he will have time in the pocket to expose the Virginia Secondary which has had issues stopping the pass.

Picking up turnovers is where Virginia could make things interesting, but the Fighting Irish have momentum and the strength at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball cannot be ignored.

Three seasons ago, Notre Dame won by 25 points on the road against Virginia and the feeling is that they match that margin in South Bend in Week 12 of the 2024 season and just keep themselves firmly in the mind of the Playoff Committee.

Oregon Ducks @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick: The current top four teams in the Big Ten Conference have all been given top five Rankings in the latest College Football Playoff picture and there is a real scenario where the two teams missing out on the Championship Game are going to be feel incredibly hard done by.

Out of the four teams, the Oregon Ducks (10-0) look to be in the best position.

They are not just unbeaten, but the Ducks finish this season with two teams that have a combined 10-9 record and they will have two weeks to prepare for the game with the Washington Huskies.

Despite that, Oregon dare not lose focus in the last road game at the Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) who are chasing one more win to become Bowl eligible. Being at home will always bring motivation to the table, while the Badgers are playing after a Bye Week as they look to snap a two game losing run.

The crushing loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes two weeks ago really stung, and it is never easy for a team that were expected to be getting veteran play out of the Quarter Back position only to have to deal with injuries which means an inexperienced player is being used instead. Braedyn Locke has thrown for 1400 yards, but he has 8 Touchdown passes along with 8 Interceptions and avoiding mistakes to hand over extra possessions is the key to this game.

It is going to be a tough day for the Badgers Offense and that is because they may not have a lot of success when it comes to running the ball, which in turn places a lot more pressure on Braedyn Locke at Quarter Back. The sophomore will be tasked with finding spaces to exploit against an Oregon Secondary that has found a way to step in front of passes and who have restricted the abilities of opponents to move the chains with any great efficiency through the air.

Throwing the ball might not be that much easier for Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks, but they will benefit from being able to churn out some big yards by running behind this Offensive Line. Dillon Gabriel broke the College Football record for career Touchdowns that had been held by Case Keenum, so there is no doubt he can have success if plays are dialled up for him to throw the ball.

However, the Oregon Offensive Line have really thrived in pounding the ball on the ground and stopping the run has been a weakness of Wisconsin in recent games. The Quarter Back can be used in designed runs and being in third and manageable should mean Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks can have their way Offensively as they move another step closer towards the Big Ten Championship Game and eventually the Playoff.

It should be noted that Wisconsin have struggled to remain competitive when they have been beaten in 2024 and it may be tough for the Badgers to avoid being blown out in this one. The Ducks just have to win to keep the Playoff Committee on their side, but there will be a pride in wanting to match the big wins that others have had over Wisconsin and Oregon can pull away by turning the ball over from a young Wisconsin Quarter Back.

MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 22 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 29.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 16th November)

After exiting the World Tour Finals, Carlos Alcaraz has admitted he hopes to still play alongside Rafael Nadal at the Davis Cup in what is the final tournament Nadal will be playing in his professional career.

Illness has proven to be too difficult to overcome for Alcaraz who finished behind Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in the Group Stage of this tournament.

Losses to both of those opponents will have disappointed the Spaniard, but his attention will soon turn to 2025 and the Australian Open which begins in less than two months time. He might have won the French Open and Wimbledon, but Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to have a much bigger impact at the two hard court Grand Slam tournaments played next year.

Four players remain in contention for the title here in Turin and the two Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Saturday.

The home favourite, Jannik Sinner has to be the favourite to win the title, but Alexander Zverev, Taylor Frtiz and Casper Ruud will all be playing with some confidence having won at least two of the three matches played over the last week.

Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final at the World Tour Finals is featuring two players that have been used to playing one another in big settings already in 2024.

The media have been pushing Alexander Zverev's credentials this week after a strong run through the Group Stage, but the German himself has been trying to cool down the growing expectations around him. He has previously won the Tour Finals and Zverev is one of the better indoor hard court players in the world, but the match up with Taylor Fritz is one that has frustrated him.

The defeat at Wimbledon will have really stung considering Alexander Zverev won the first two sets, and Taylor Fritz franked that victory by beating this opponent at the US Open on his way to the Final in New York City. A win at the Laver Cup means Taylor Fritz has beaten Alexander Zverev in three matches in a row and his own efforts here in Turin have been impressive enough to suggest the underdog could give Zverev all he can handle.

Both players will be keen to bring their best serving abilities onto the court for this one and it does feel like it will be a match where Break Points will be hard to create.

Alexander Zverev has been really impressive behind serve throughout the tournament- he 'only' won 71% of his service points in the last match against Carlos Alcaraz having won at least 80% in each of his first two matches, but that number against the Spaniard meant Zverev only allowed 2 Break Points in the entire match.

It has certainly allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom on the return, although he had not been at his best in that side of his tennis before the victory over Carlos Alcaraz.

Improving on the return will be a huge test for Alexander Zverev considering he has won just 28% of points played on the Taylor Fritz serve in four matches in 2024. The American has perhaps not served as well as he can at his best, but it is clearly a shot that bothers Alexander Zverev who has not really found consistent answers to deal with it.

Since beating Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz has also had issues on the return of serve, while his returning numbers in the head to head with Alexander Zverev are not that much stronger than the higher Ranked player.

It all points to a tight match that could feature two very competitive sets at the very least.

The underdog is appealing considering how well he has matched up with Alexander Zverev, but the latter deserves respect for putting together the stronger week so far. Both players could serve well enough to see this one surpass the total games line set, even in a two set match, and that looks the best approach to what could be a really good Semi Final.

Casper Ruud + 5.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It would be foolish to suggest that anything other than a win for Jannik Sinner is the most likely outcome of this Semi Final.

However, that does not mean that the handicap does not look a little too wide and not giving Casper Ruud enough respect.

It is far from ideal having to play the second Group match on Friday and then the Semi Final on Saturday, especially as Casper Ruud will have twenty-four hours less than Jannik Sinner to prepare for this match. He was dragged into a three set match with Andrey Rublev, although the win will have given Ruud some confidence that he may have been lacking before the tournament began.

Casper Ruud was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group too and he did give Alexander Zverev a test before going down so there is every chance that the Norwegian can at least test Jannik Sinner.

Beatng the World Number 1 is a different challenge than merely trying to keep things competitive and the home crowd are going to be firmly behind their player. So far it has helped Jannik Sinner come through his three matches very impressively and the Grand Slam titles won in Melbourne and New York City have just underlined the very strong performances Sinner has put together on the hard courts.

His serve has been very impressive and that has been evident through the week in Turin, where Jannik Sinner reached the Final twelve months ago. The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will dominate on the serve here, but the conditions should allow Casper Ruud to at least try and dictate the points behind his own serve and that should mean he has an opportunity to keep this one close on the scoreboard.

Two previous matches between these players have both been played on an indoor hard court at the same event in Vienna in 2020 and 2021. Both were won by Jannik Sinner, although the second was easier on the scoreboard, and he is capable of blowing any opponent away on this surface.

That will always be a concern when you are on the other side of the net when opposing the World Number 1, but Ruud has played well enough to perhaps go down in a couple of competitive sets. Despite the impressive performances from Sinner, he has not been able to cover this handicap mark against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev and it may be another relatively comfortable, but not a blowout win.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Gilberto Ramirez vs Chris Billam-Smith (Saturday 16th November)

While there have been some decent Boxing cards put together over the last couple of weekends, the reality is that those have featured big names in what many perceived as largely forgettable fights.

A prime example is the card last week in Philadelphia as Jaron Ennis beat Karen Chukhadzhian for the second time in a little under two years.

The first fight was pretty poor and, while the second was better, there was very little clamour to see Boots go in with this opponent again. Unfortunately it was a mandatory defence of the IBF World Title he holds and it was a fight forced upon him as Ennis continues to tempt the other Champions or a big name in either the Welterweight or Light-Middleweight Division in with him.

Boots faced some criticism for the performance last week as he settled for another win on the cards, but you cannot underestimate the importance of motivation. The fans were barely interested in the rematch so it is no surprise that Ennis was a little flat, especially after putting Chukhadzhian down relatively early, and so the overall performance has to be set in that light.

There is little doubt that plenty more is to come from Boots and the rumoured fight with Vergil Ortiz Jr will really earn the interest of all who love the sport.

On the same card, Bam Rodriguez certainly did give the fans something to talk about and he continues to pursue a big fight with Roman Gonzalez. Clearing out the last generation of stars in the weight class would be a huge point on his resume and Bam may then think about whether it is worth putting on some more weight to take on The Monster, Naoya Inoue.

The lower weight classes have long brought together some special nights and both of those events would be special for Rodriguez and his growing reputation.

Riyadh Season are promoting a pretty big fight card this weekend with the top of the bill featuring a Cruiserweight World Title that could see the winner move onto a massive Unification with Jai Opetaia next year.

'Latino Night' sees Golden Boy join the mix as promoters happy to work with the Saudi authorities to put the big cards together and there are some good looking fights to take place.

Of course we cannot speak about Boxing without addressing the elephant in the room with Netflix streaming a live event on Friday evening that features Iron Mike Tyson, albeit an almost 60 year old 'Baddest Man on the Planet'.

The reality is that the casuals will lap that up, which in turn is hugely positive news for the promoters and broadcasters, but it is the undercard that appeals most with the standout being the rematch between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano.

Gilberto Ramirez vs Chris Billam-Smith

There will be a few thoughts on the Tyson-Paul card below, but it is this Cruiserweight World Title fight that tops 'Latino Night' that should be the real focus for fight fans.

It is a Unification with both the WBO and WBA World Titles up for grabs.

Chris Billam-Smith, the WBO Champion, won the Title from former stable-mate Lawrence Okolie in a scrappy fight, and has defended it two times including redeeming the one loss that has been on his record.

He is the naturally bigger man and the British fighter is someone who does everything pretty well, but perhaps nothing at a special level. It is perhaps why he is regularly under-rated and why the team have taken some offence to the talk being whipped up by the other side.

There have been a couple of performances where Chris Billam-Smith has not been at his best, his first defence of the WBO World Title was one when he turned things around with big shots in the second half of that win over Mateusz Masternak, but in the main Billam-Smith does exactly what it says on the tin.

He will be fundamentally strong, will pick his shots and execute the game-plan of the corner and Chris Billam-Smith will want to impose himself on a fighter that began his career at Middleweight.

Gilberto Ramirez has long been one of the leading names in and around the Middleweight and Super-Middleweight Divisions, but the resume is perhaps a tad disappointing.

Wins over Arthur Abraham and Jesse Hart, twice, are decent, but there isn't a lot more before he made his move up into the Cruiserweight Division. Zurdo was beaten pretty comfortably by Dmitri Bivol at Light-Heavyweight, which is no disgrace, but has bounced back with Decision wins over Joe Smith Jr and an unbeaten Arsen Goulamirian to take the WBA World Title.

He was largely untroubled in both wins, but Smith Jr was coming up in weight having been out of the ring since being crushed by Artur Beterbiev, while Goulamirian had been inactive with the fight with Zurdo being his first in eighteen months.

It feels much different when facing someone like Chris Billam-Smith who was out in June and is a natural at this weight class.

Maybe the weight class suits Ramirez that much better too, but he was pretty listless in the defeat to Dmitry Bivol, although it has to be repeated that it is a defeat to a truly elite World Class fighter.

He will not be given a lot of room to breathe by Chris Billam-Smith and the heavier hands should be with the British fighter, although Ramirez is capable of out-boxing him at times. However, there is a feeling that Billam-Smith is perhaps a touch underrated here and he looks a big price to upset the Mexican WBA World Champion.

Close Rounds are likely going to edge in favour of Gilberto Ramirez as the 'A' side of the card, but Chris Billam-Smith is capable of hurting him if Zurdo is not moving as much at this weight as he has previously.

In saying that, Zurdo will be dangerous when he sits down on his punches and we have seen Chris Billam-Smith hurt before, although the recovery has also been impressive.

It looks a really good fight on paper and a solid Unification ahead of a potentially massive night against Jai Opetaia.

Gilberto Ramirez is someone that deserves a lot of respect, but Chris Billam-Smith might just have the tools to derail the Mexican standing in front of him and looks worthy of a small interest to become the next Unified World Champion representing Great Britain.

The undercard looks a solid one as some of the fighters under the Golden Boy Promotional banner are given an opportunity to impress.

We should see Oscar Collazo find a way to break down his unbeaten opponent, Thammanoon Niyomtrong in this Unification bout and the former can secure that through another Stoppage.

He is bidding to steal some of the limelight from those fighting higher up on the card, and Oscar Collazo can certainly provide a big statement in a weight class that is not one that will always capture the attention of the fight fans.

The expectation is that William Zepeda is going to move onto some huge fights over the next several months, but he will want to avoid slipping up against a veteran.

Tevin Farmer made things awkward for another fringe World Title contender, Raymond Muratalla in July, but the latter was perhaps not as active as he should have been to break down the former World Champion.

Activity is not going to be an issue for Zepeda and he can invest in early body work to slow down and break down Tevin Farmer and go a little better than one of his rivals in the weight class by ending this fight before the judges are needed.

The chief support on the card looks a really good one when Jose Ramirez faces Arnold Barboza Jr- these two fighters have had 60 fights combined and the only loss is the Ramirez razor-thin defeat to Josh Taylor with all of the marbles up for grabs in the Light Welterweight Division.

Inactivity has been an issue for Jose Ramirez, but he was out earlier this year and is fighting twice in a calendar year for the first time since 2019. The rust should have been shook off in his win over Rances Barthelemy and Jose Ramirez is a considerable step up for Arnold Barboza Jr who is perhaps a touch fortunate to still hold an unbeaten record.

The winner will be in line for some big nights ahead, but the feeling is that Arnold Barboza Jr has not really been developed in the manner that he and his handlers might have hoped. He is a quality fighter, but Jose Ramirez is very good and the latter can come away with a win on the cards after Twelve tough Rounds are in the books.

On Friday night, Netflix will get involved in the Boxing world with the main event featuring Jake Paul and Mike Tyson.

It is completely understandable that so many have become invested in the fight, even if Iron Mike was far from his best when he sat down and decided to end his career against Kevin McBride.

At 58 years old, it is only really nostalgia that perhaps has prickled the interest of fans who will be tuning in- can Mike Tyson turn back the clock and Knock Out Jake Paul?

The reality feels much more simple with Paul pursuing a Boxing career by beating up faded UFC fighters in an unfamiliar sport. His sole fight against another 'boxer' was the defeat to Tommy Fury, so there is that feeling that he is finally taking on a 'live' opponent at a higher weight class than he has been operating.

You have to be careful when it comes to discussing Mike Tyson- he is a former Heavyweight Champion and a legendary, iconic name, but there is no doubt that he hasn't been the Tyson people talk about for over thirty years. The huge age gap and the medical issues that Mike Tyson has been dealing with makes it very, very unlikely that this is anything more than an opportunity for Jake Paul to pay the former 'Baddest Man on the Planet' enough money to have his name plastered on Paul's resume.

It is a hard fight to judge as to how it will end mainly because of the two minute Rounds and the gloves being used being heavier than you would have for a truly professional contest. The fight is going on the records, which is fair enough, but it feels like there could be some 'deal' in place that allows Jake Paul to come away with a victory, but Mike Tyson's reputation avoiding any unnecessary dent.

IF there was a play, Jake Paul to win on the cards might be the one, but there are too many uncertainties and doubts about the competitiveness to warrant that.

Jake Paul may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he has tried his best as a Promoter for Amanda Serrano and his charge will be the chief support to the main event when she finally rematches Katie Taylor.

Both fighters may be passed their best and two and a half years have been and gone since these two shared a ring for a very good contest.

Katie Taylor earned the nod on the night, but she is clearly not the same fighter as she once was even if she was able to beat Chantelle Cameron in a rematch in November 2023. She outworked her rival that day, but Taylor is slowing and another twelve months has passed through without the Irishwoman being back in the ring.

Amanda Serrano is not much younger than Katie Taylor, but she has won five straight since the loss to this rival and has been much more active. This is going to be the fifth fight Serrano has had since February 2023 and that should mean she can get into a rhythm pretty quickly, while also having the power edge.

In reality she will need to be a bit more active in the closer Rounds to turn the cards back round in her favour, while Amanda Serrano may be able to put Taylor down this time having hurt her terribly in the first meeting. That Knock Down could be all it takes to turn the tide and perhaps set up a trilogy and Amanda Serrano looks the play.

The money has seemingly poured in on Amanda Serrano who is now the strong favourite to win- the most likely method will be on the cards, although Serrano has shown she has the power to hurt Katie Taylor and a Stoppage cannot be completely ruled out at this stage of their respective careers.

Another undercard bout features a legit World Title when Mario Barrios faces Abel Ramos and it is a chance for the Champion to just show why he deserves to be in with some of the other Champions and big names in the Welterweight Division.

It is a fight where neither will want to take a backward step, but Barrios has momentum behind him and may just find the finishing punches against the veteran.

MY PICKS: Chris Billam-Smith @ 3.20 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oscar Collazo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit

William Zepeda to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jose Ramirez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Amanda Serrano to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mario Barrios to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 30-53, + 9.44 Units (109 Units Staked, + 8.66% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Shakur Stevenson vs Edwin De Los Santos (November 16th)

The rumours had been building in a very short space of time and the announcement of the big Saudi card on December 23rd was made official with a press conference in London.

Having both Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua signed up had some fans dreaming, but it quickly became clear that both would share the main event billing, but against other opponents.

Eventually the hope has to be that Wilder vs Joshua is the plan- both are Ranked highly by the WBC and could easily be called as a number one contender bout, while there is also the possibility that both could end up fighting for a vacant World Title, notably in the IBF organisation.

Filip Hrgovic, who is also heading to Saudi a couple of days before Christmas, will have plenty to say about that, as will Otto Wallin and Joseph Parker,

There has been plenty of excitement about the card, which has brought together rival promoters and rival fighters, but in the cold of light of day the feeling has to be a little different.

Of course it can only be good news that rivalries have been overcome and there is a potential that Saudi Arabian money is going to be able to put together some of the big fights fans have been asking for.

It's just not on this card.

Quality names and fighters are going to be showcasing their talents, but the oddsmakers rarely get things wrong and there are huge favourites set for every bout taking place.

Hopefully it is a card that is just setting up a monster event in 2024, and you can never discount the chance of seeing an upset or two when it comes to the Heavyweights. I will be tuning in on December 23rd, but for a lot of casual fans, it may not be the kind of main events that really draws them in.

Las Vegas is hosting the Formula 1 Grand Prix this weekend and that means a Top Rank card has to be moved to Thursday to avoid any clash with a big event.

It is an important card that is potentially setting up a future big fight, while also giving Shakur Stevenson a chance to earn his WBC World Lightweight Title.

Shakur Stevenson vs Edwin De Los Santos

There is a lot of excitement around Shakur Stevenson, but his reputation has perhaps made it more difficult for his promoters to tempt some of the big names in the 135 pound Division into the ring with the unbeaten American.

This is just the second fight in the weight class and Stevenson has a chance to pick up a vacant World Title that has been dropped by Undisputed Champion Devin Haney as he moves up to win a World Title in the Light-Welterweight Division.

For a long time Stevenson has been calling out Haney and he was even in the ring following Devin's controversial win over Vasyl Lomachenko, but that fight continues to marinate.

At this stage there is no guarantee that Devin Haney will head back to the Lightweight Division and unlikely if he is to win a World Title in the 140 pound Division.

With that in mind, Shakur Stevenson has to just continue his career and that means winning World Titles, unifying and then ultimately becoming Undisputed and force Devin Haney into the ring with him.

There are plenty of big names in the Lightweight Division that can be targeted- the winner of the rumoured Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr should be easy to make under his current promoter, while the likes of Keyshawn Davis, William Zepeda and Frank Martin are improving all the time and perhaps looking for those big fights at the back end of 2024 too.

Of course the main target right now has to be Gervonta Davis, but Shakur Stevenson cannot afford a slip up.

Edwin De Los Santos is a southpaw and has shown plenty of power, while his one loss was a slightly controversial one to then unbeaten William Foster. He is quite a bit down the current WBC Rankings to have been given the shot to fight for a vacant belt, but that only underlines the problems Stevenson has had in getting some of the bigger names into the ring.

You have to wonder if there is enough from De Los Santos to trouble someone as slick as Shakur Stevenson, but it is a long shot.

The expectation is that Stevenson will just use his defensive skills to frustrate and counter Edwin De Los Santos and really begin to take over once the first three or four Rounds are in the books.

He has stated as much himself and this does feel like an opportunity for Shakur Stevenson to impress with a strong, dominant performance to back up his first win in the Division earlier this year.

Shakur Stevenson was able to put his punches together to force a Stoppage, albeit perhaps in a fight that could have been allowed to go on, and the feeling is that he is going to want to put on a show as this one goes on. You can never discount a power puncher that Edwin De Los Santos looks to be, but he has not been in the ring with someone as good as Shakur Stevenson and could end up walking into some big shots as frustration builds.

The chief support has Emanuel Navarrete defending his WBO Lightweight World Title as he continues to 'chase' Shakur Stevenson up the Divisions.

This is clearly a fighter that Top Rank are lining up for Stevenson, even if there are options to unify within the 130 pound Division, but Navarrete has to focus on avoiding any slip up.

A third fight this year shows that Emanuel Navarrete is looking to continue his development with all of those being in this Division after a late win over Liam Wilson and then a strong win over Oscar Valdez.

Oscar Valdez has also suffered a loss to Shakur Stevenson and more comparisons will be made between the American and Emanuel Navarrete after this one.

Robson Conceicao was beaten by Stevenson in September 2022 in what turned out to be the latter's last fight in the 130 pound Division and he has fought just Two Rounds since that loss. At 35 years old, this is the Brazilian's last chance to win a World Title in all reality and the real question in this fight is whether Conceicao can get to the cards as he did in defeats to Oscar Valdez and Shakur Stevenson.

Emanuel Navarrete is crude and unorthodox, while he will not stop pushing forward and looking to crack the Robson Conceicao puzzle.

Early on you would expect the Challenger to put some Rounds in the bank, but the feeling is that Navarrete will build the momentum and can eventually crack through late in the contest.

Another Decision defeat for Robson Conceicao would surprise no one with his defensive skills, but he might be a bit rusty and the pace that Emanuel Navarrete pushes may be too much for a 35 year old with little ring time over the last fifteen months.

Being a prospect in the Welterweight Division will always draw some attention and this is a good platform on which Brian Norman Jr can impress.

He is fighting another undefeated fighter in Quinton Randall and both are stepping up their level of competition in this Ten Rounder.

However, Norman Jr has a real edge when it comes to the power and the expectation is that he can break down Randall and eventually find a Stoppage to continue his move up the World Rankings in a loaded Division, but one that could soon have Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford moving into Light-Middleweight to leave an opening at the top.

Brian Norman Jr will have to be patient before the really big fights come his way, but the next twelve months will be important to continue to step up his opponent level to get closer to the top names.

MY PICKS: Shakur Stevenson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.33 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Emanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brian Norman Jr to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 53-93, - 22.77 Units (269 Units Staked, - 8.46% Yield) 

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 16th)

It is time to get the calculators out as we try and work out the final permutations in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals.

That means it might be a situation where we need to wait until the first Singles match is completed to be able to make a decent selection for the second Group match. It is the approach that I will be taking for the next two days and that is because there is a serious impact on motivations for players involved in the second match depending on the outcome of the first.

We have a first alternate in action on Thursday as Group A rounds off and there is still a chance that Novak Djokovic could be eliminated even if he wins two out of the three matches played. The only way he can feel good about his chances of progressing is by winning his match in straight sets, but Hubert Hurkacz can be awkward, while Jannik Sinner is not certain to progress even with two wins from two matches.

Check back in at around 5pm by which time I should have further thoughts about the second Singles match scheduled for the day.

Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: After suggesting he was being 'humble' in declaring himself favourite to win the ATP World Tour Finals for a seventh time, Novak Djokovic finds himself in a slightly awkward position.

The permutations have just gotten a little complicated after Holger Rune was awarded a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas after just three games were played on Tuesday. It does mean the final standings will only become clear at the end of the Evening Session, but all Novak Djokovic can do is focus on what he can control.

Winning this match will give him a chance of progressing and winning in straight sets would likely be enough to take Novak Djokovic through to the Semi Final. Even that will come down to the final scoreboard of the other Group match taking place, but the World Number 1 has to make sure he is energised and ready to compete against a fresh alternate who comes in for the injured Tsitsipas.

Hubert Hurkacz was very close to a top eight finish and a place in the ATP World Tour Finals on his own merits after winning a couple of titles between the US Open and Turin. He has a big serve and while he has not had many top 10 wins on the hard courts this season, Hubert Hurkacz has given those opponents something to think about with his serve able to keep him competitive.

It is something that Novak Djokovic will be aware of- he has won all six previous matches against the big Pole, but their clash at Wimbledon in July needed four tight sets to separate the players with Hurkacz serving incredibly well on the day.

He is going to have to do the same in Turin with Hubert Hurkacz likely to be very aware of the poor returning numbers produced against Novak Djokovic. However, while Hurkacz has been resting and practicing, Djokovic has had to play two matches that have lasted over three hours and that emotional and physical effort already produced could leave him lacking his full strength on Thursday.

This has to have some impact on this match, even if Novak Djokovic is likely going to have the majority of Break Points as he pushes enough returns back in play. In general, Hubert Hurkacz has found it much tougher to break through the Djokovic defences, even behind serve, and so you can understand why the World Number 1 is considered such a strong favourite.

However, a bit of tiredness may mean Novak Djokovic is not quite able to push for multiple Breaks of serve, while his own serve may be more vulnerable than normal, and that could see this match become the third involving Djokovic that surpasses the total games line set.

Jannik Sinner v Holger Rune: The immediate thought is how is a player going to recover after finally beating the World Number 1, but in a match that lasted over three hours and one in which Jannik Sinner had to expend a lot of energy.

It is a victory that has put the Italian on the brink of reaching the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals being played in Turin, but Jannik Sinner may still have some work to do.

That will largely depend on Novak Djokovic and whether he has won his match- if he has, Jannik Sinner will need to win at least a set against Holger Rune to progress and the expectation is that Sinner will be preparing knowing he needs to come out firing.

Losing a set would not eliminate Holger Rune after the three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas- he would have preferred to win the match without a retirement as it could have bolstered his position ahead of this final Group match, but Holger Rune will know a win could be enough to take him through.

While things will be clear by the time the players enter the court, it is really the earlier match that could dictate motivations of the players involved.

Novak Djokovic winning in straight sets means Jannik Sinner would not at least a set, but a three set win for Holger Rune would mean having to get the calculators out as game won percentage takes over as the tie-breaker. The Dane will know that his three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas could then work against him, especially as he 'only' held serve twice in that match, and things could become very complicated with Holger Rune perhaps taking too many chances.

The recommendation would certainly be to have a watching brief on how the other match has ended before really making a call in this one.

However, you do have to say that Jannik Sinner is the stronger hard court player out of the two involved in this match. He has lost both previous Tour matches against Holger Rune, including their sole hard court meeting, but the latter has not been at his most consistent best in the second half of the season while Sinner has been pushing forward and looking every bit the potential Grand Slam Champion in the making.

With a home crowd pushing him forward, the feeling is that Jannik Sinner will find a way to win this match and Holger Rune could wilt away when he feels the chances of progression are beyond him. However, there is too much riding on how the other Group match is played out and so any units for this selection will be updated on Thursday after the Novak Djokovic match is completed.

[UPDATE]: So Novak Djokovic did win in three sets.

It means he needs a favour from Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is through no matter what and this feels a big opportunity for Holger Rune.

There is far too much uncertainty for me in this match about the motivations of Jannik Sinner and the only good play may be backing Rune to win.

However, Holger Rune has been inconsistent over the second half of the year and the fans are going to be behind Sinner, which just makes this a match to watch.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 6-1, + 7.64 Units (14 Units Staked, + 54.57% Yield)