ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Picks 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 17th November)

The last big Singles match in the 2024 season will decide the Champion of the World Tour Finals and it is a match that we have already seen in Turin.

Both Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner were playing in the same Group and they will meet with the title on the line on Sunday in what is also a repeat of the US Open Final from September.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: After wins over Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon and the US Open, Taylor Fritz dug in to see off the German in a very close, competitive Semi Final on Saturday.

This means Taylor Fritz has surpassed his own expectations of the tournament and he has certainly gotten the mental edge over Zverev, but backing that up and winning the biggest title of his career is going to be another significant challenge for the American.

He may have had a bit more time to rest and recover ahead of the Final, but Jannik Sinner made very easy work of Casper Ruud in his own Semi Final and so that is not expected to be a factor.

There is no doubt that the toughest win that Sinner has had in this tournament was against Taylor Fritz in the Group- he has broken the other three opponents at least three times, but Jannik Sinner was 'only' able to do that twice against Fritz in that match.

What should be noted is that Jannik Sinner had considerably more success on the return of serve against Taylor Fritz than anyone has managed in Turin. Taylor Fritz has won at least 70% of the service points played in each of the three wins this week, but that number dropped to 62% against Jannik Sinner and there is no doubt that the underdog will be under more pressure to hit his marks.

At his best, Taylor Fritz can do that, but he invested a lot into the Semi Final win over Alexander Zverev and the scoreboard pressure could be tough to deal with.

Jannik Sinner has served at a high level all week and he will likely keep Taylor Fritz contained on this side of the court, while building the pressure with his return.

Covering this spread will not be easy, especially if Taylor Fritz wins the toss and decides to serve first.

However, the Italian World Number 1 has found a way to get on top of the Fritz serve for long enough to create the Break Points and, ultimately, move into a position to win the title with a good looking win on the scoreboard. Last season Sinner had to face an opponent he had beaten in the Group Stage in the Final of this tournament and was beaten by Novak Djokovic, but twelve months on and Sinner is the best hard court player in the world who can round out 2024 with yet another strong win on the surface.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 10-4, + 4.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 31.86% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 16th November)

After exiting the World Tour Finals, Carlos Alcaraz has admitted he hopes to still play alongside Rafael Nadal at the Davis Cup in what is the final tournament Nadal will be playing in his professional career.

Illness has proven to be too difficult to overcome for Alcaraz who finished behind Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in the Group Stage of this tournament.

Losses to both of those opponents will have disappointed the Spaniard, but his attention will soon turn to 2025 and the Australian Open which begins in less than two months time. He might have won the French Open and Wimbledon, but Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to have a much bigger impact at the two hard court Grand Slam tournaments played next year.

Four players remain in contention for the title here in Turin and the two Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Saturday.

The home favourite, Jannik Sinner has to be the favourite to win the title, but Alexander Zverev, Taylor Frtiz and Casper Ruud will all be playing with some confidence having won at least two of the three matches played over the last week.

Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final at the World Tour Finals is featuring two players that have been used to playing one another in big settings already in 2024.

The media have been pushing Alexander Zverev's credentials this week after a strong run through the Group Stage, but the German himself has been trying to cool down the growing expectations around him. He has previously won the Tour Finals and Zverev is one of the better indoor hard court players in the world, but the match up with Taylor Fritz is one that has frustrated him.

The defeat at Wimbledon will have really stung considering Alexander Zverev won the first two sets, and Taylor Fritz franked that victory by beating this opponent at the US Open on his way to the Final in New York City. A win at the Laver Cup means Taylor Fritz has beaten Alexander Zverev in three matches in a row and his own efforts here in Turin have been impressive enough to suggest the underdog could give Zverev all he can handle.

Both players will be keen to bring their best serving abilities onto the court for this one and it does feel like it will be a match where Break Points will be hard to create.

Alexander Zverev has been really impressive behind serve throughout the tournament- he 'only' won 71% of his service points in the last match against Carlos Alcaraz having won at least 80% in each of his first two matches, but that number against the Spaniard meant Zverev only allowed 2 Break Points in the entire match.

It has certainly allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom on the return, although he had not been at his best in that side of his tennis before the victory over Carlos Alcaraz.

Improving on the return will be a huge test for Alexander Zverev considering he has won just 28% of points played on the Taylor Fritz serve in four matches in 2024. The American has perhaps not served as well as he can at his best, but it is clearly a shot that bothers Alexander Zverev who has not really found consistent answers to deal with it.

Since beating Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz has also had issues on the return of serve, while his returning numbers in the head to head with Alexander Zverev are not that much stronger than the higher Ranked player.

It all points to a tight match that could feature two very competitive sets at the very least.

The underdog is appealing considering how well he has matched up with Alexander Zverev, but the latter deserves respect for putting together the stronger week so far. Both players could serve well enough to see this one surpass the total games line set, even in a two set match, and that looks the best approach to what could be a really good Semi Final.

Casper Ruud + 5.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It would be foolish to suggest that anything other than a win for Jannik Sinner is the most likely outcome of this Semi Final.

However, that does not mean that the handicap does not look a little too wide and not giving Casper Ruud enough respect.

It is far from ideal having to play the second Group match on Friday and then the Semi Final on Saturday, especially as Casper Ruud will have twenty-four hours less than Jannik Sinner to prepare for this match. He was dragged into a three set match with Andrey Rublev, although the win will have given Ruud some confidence that he may have been lacking before the tournament began.

Casper Ruud was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group too and he did give Alexander Zverev a test before going down so there is every chance that the Norwegian can at least test Jannik Sinner.

Beatng the World Number 1 is a different challenge than merely trying to keep things competitive and the home crowd are going to be firmly behind their player. So far it has helped Jannik Sinner come through his three matches very impressively and the Grand Slam titles won in Melbourne and New York City have just underlined the very strong performances Sinner has put together on the hard courts.

His serve has been very impressive and that has been evident through the week in Turin, where Jannik Sinner reached the Final twelve months ago. The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will dominate on the serve here, but the conditions should allow Casper Ruud to at least try and dictate the points behind his own serve and that should mean he has an opportunity to keep this one close on the scoreboard.

Two previous matches between these players have both been played on an indoor hard court at the same event in Vienna in 2020 and 2021. Both were won by Jannik Sinner, although the second was easier on the scoreboard, and he is capable of blowing any opponent away on this surface.

That will always be a concern when you are on the other side of the net when opposing the World Number 1, but Ruud has played well enough to perhaps go down in a couple of competitive sets. Despite the impressive performances from Sinner, he has not been able to cover this handicap mark against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev and it may be another relatively comfortable, but not a blowout win.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 15th November)

We are down to the final two Group matches at the World Tour Finals and both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be resting up and waiting to see who will be facing them in the Semi Final.

The second match is going to be the key, but the first on Day 6 looks full of quality before we get down to the business end of the event in Turin.

Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz over 22.5 games: When the Groups were drawn out for the ATP World Tour Finals, the meeting between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz would have been one that was expected to decide the top spot in the section.

This may yet be the case, but Carlos Alcaraz is still fighting his way back from the upset defeat to Casper Ruud in his opening match. He admitted he was not feeling his best prior to the match with Andrey Rublev to save his tournament, but afterwards Carlos Alcaraz stated he had been able to move better than in his opening match as he beat Rublev in straight sets.

It gives him a real chance to still make the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz will go a long way towards progression if he is able to win this one in straight sets.

However, Alexander Zverev will be doing all he can to at least secure one of the first two sets as he still has a potential path towards elimination, despite beating both Rublev and Ruud in straight sets. A heavy defeat to Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud winning the other match in straight sets could see Zverev eliminated so the focus for the German will be on securing at least a set against Carlos Alcaraz that will push him through.

Confidence should not be an issue for Alexander Zverev who beat Carlos Alcaraz at the World Tour Finals last year and who followed up by eliminating the Spaniard at the Australian Open. The two meetings since Melbourne have both been won by Alcaraz, including that epic French Open Final, but the indoor conditions suits Alexander Zverev.

Those conditions have certainly helped the ball fly from the serve and Zverev has dominated behind that shot with over 80% of points won and the German yet to face a Break Point. The serve is certainly working well enough to help Alexander Zverev rattle through some games and keep the scoreboard pressure on an opponent that has to win well to give himself the best chance of earning a spot in the next Round.

After a sub-par serving day against Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz was much better next time out with 78% of points won and containing the Andrey Rublev threat. You have to credit Alexander Zverev for the wins produced this week, but he has not overwhelmed opponents with the return of serve and there are likely going to be some very tight margins to deal with when these top players meet.

We saw our first three set match in the Singles tournament on Day 5 and it would bot be a surprise if this one follows that route.

There is a definite case to be made for the total games line to be surpassed if both Zverev and Alcaraz continue to serve as they did last time out. Break Points might be hard to find and tie-breakers are looming, which should go a long way to getting passed this total line set, even if the third set is not needed.

Casper Ruud v Andrey Rublev: This is the very last match of the Group Stage at the 2024 tournament and all will become very clear in terms of permutations for both of these players before they head out onto the court in Turin. Neither will want to overburden themselves with the numbers, but it will be much clearer what they need to do in order to progress to the Semi Final.

Things are much tougher for Andrey Rublev, which is no surprise considering he has lost both matches played in straight sets. He needs Alexander Zverev to beat Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the other match in the Group played earlier in the day and Andrey Rublev would then have to win in straight sets and there is no other pathway for him to make his way to the Semi Final at this event again.

For Casper Ruud the picture will only really clear up fully at the end of the Zverev-Alcaraz match too, but his focus has to be on winning this match in straight sets. Doing that should be good enough to progress no matter what has happened earlier in the day, although there will still be some permutations to work out just in case Ruud was to drop a set.

As mentioned, there is actually a pathway for Casper Ruud to progress even after a three set defeat, but no tennis player will be thinking about trying to do anything other than winning this match.

Casper Ruud had been in miserable form in the lead up to the World Tour Finals, but the win over Carlos Alcaraz, even a limited Alcaraz, will have provided him a boost. He did not play badly against Alexander Zverev, but Ruud was not really able to have a decent impact on the return of serve and that ultimately proved costly when Zverev took the one and only Break Point he created.

Serving like that will put Andrey Rublev under pressure and the Russian has just shown a bit of fragility in both of his two losses. While there have been times when he has looked good, Rublev has dropped serve twice in each defeat and he is always likely to throw in one or two bad service games to give an opponent a chance.

This will be very much in the Casper Ruud thinking, while the Norwegian may also hold a mental advantage knowing he has beaten Rublev at this event in both 2021 and 2022.

The first of those meetings was very competitive and Andrey Rublev may count himself unlucky to lose, but Casper Ruud dismissed his challenge easily in the 2022 Semi Final and is serving well enough to find an edge in this one.

The odds feel reflective of the overall form of the two players heading into this event in Turin, but Casper Ruud has served well enough this week to stay with Andrey Rublev until what will feel like an inevitable poor service game. If the Russian is officially eliminated, it may be tough to really put in the work to turn around the match if things begin to go wrong and Casper Ruud looks a decent underdog to get behind as he hopes to unexpectedly reach the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Casper Ruud @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-3, + 2.24 Units (10 Units Staked, + 22.40% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November)

The ATP World Tour Finals look to be building towards a potentially special ending, but it has not been the best four days for the fans.

Very little drama has been seen within matches and we have yet to have one match go the distance in the Singles draw.

Big matches are coming up with places in the Semi Final still open to all eight players that have begun this event and that is perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the end of the Group Stage. Things could change very quickly as matches continue to be completed, but it should mean we have focused players heading onto the Turin courts with so much still to play for as the season winds down.

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The situation is pretty clear for Taylor Fritz with a single match left in the Group and that begins and end with winning this match.

He cannot secure passage into the Semi Final until the result from the other match in the Group is confirmed, but Fritz can put himself in a strong position if he is able to win this one in straight sets. The 'easier' the scoreboard win looks, the more likely he is to make it through to the Semi Final, which was the minimum ambition the American set for himself when the World Tour Finals began.

However, this is far from a foregone conclusion and that is because Taylor Fritz has had a tough time when facing up to Alex De Minaur.

The Australian has won their last couple of matches, both on the hard courts, and Alex De Minaur has not been eliminated from the tournament despite losing both matches in the Group in straight sets. His margin for error is much smaller than Taylor Fritz in the fact that Alex De Minaur needs to win this one in straight sets and hope Jannik Sinner is able to beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and even then it will come to percentage of games won.

The maths takes a bit of working out, but De Minaur's sole focus has to be winning in straight sets and you do have to wonder how he will be able to pick himself up if he is to drop either of the first two sets played. It is a sport in which the focus is on the court once a player is there, but you have to believe it is a potential factor that Alex De Minaur will perhaps fade if he is not able to progress.

His performances in Turin have been a little disappointing with Alex De Minaur really struggling to have much of an impact on the return, which is a key part of his tennis. Only ONE Break Point has been fashioned in two matches and De Minaur has won less than 21% of return points played, which is a problem when facing someone with the serving capability of Taylor Fritz.

In recent matches between the players, Alex De Minaur has been able to get enough back into play on the return to frustrate his opponent and extract errors from the Taylor Fritz side of the court. You have to think this will be the game plan again, but Alex De Minaur also needs to really pick up his level on the serve if he is going to upset the odds against the American again.

The head to head has to give anyone pause for thought.

However, Taylor Fritz has played the stronger tennis in Turin this week and he should have enough to work his way past this awkward opponent and move into a decent position to Qualify for the Semi Final on Saturday.

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The big question on Thursday has to be 'which Daniil Medvedev is going to be heading out onto the court for this vital last Group match?'

He did not play badly against Taylor Fritz, but was pretty well beaten at the end and looked like he was not having any kind of fun on the court. A lingering injury had been bothering Daniil Medvedev and his behaviour suggested he might already have checked out of the World Tour Finals after a single Group match had been played.

Two days later, Daniil Medvedev dominated Alex De Minaur and was a very comfortable winner against the Australian, which has also reignited his push to make the Semi Final at this tournament.

Of course he is facing the World Number 1 and the home favourite in this final Group match and a player that has really dominated the head to head between these two in recent times.

Jannik Sinner has won both matches in straight sets, but surprisingly that has not been enough to confirm passage into the Semi Final. By the time this match is scheduled to be played, Sinner's place in the next Round may be secured and both of these players will have eyes on the other match in the Group played earlier in the day.

For Sinner the scenario is pretty clear- no matter what happens in the other match, winning one set in this final match would take him through and as Group Winner. Of course winning this match makes for the easiest scenario, while there is a chance that a heavy, straight sets defeat in this Group match would potentially eliminate Jannik Sinner if Taylor Fritz has crushed Alex De Minaur in straight sets earlier in the day.

Those game permutations are much more convoluted than the sets breakdown, but it may be something Daniil Medvedev is also working on. He can progress with a straight sets win as long as Taylor Fritz has not won in straight sets too, while a loss may still give Medvedev an opportunity if Alex De Minaur has beaten Taylor Fritz earlier in the day, although the World Number 4 will likely need to win a set.

It is all a little messy with each match in the Group won and lost in straight sets, but Jannik Sinner looks very focused this week and he can beat Daniil Medvedev in this last Group match, even if a Semi Final spot has been achieved.

Jannik Sinner has been serving at a very high level in this event and that will build pressure on Daniil Medvedev if the shoulder is still feeling a little sore. There has also been a definite edge with the World Number 1 when it comes to the return of serve, while the multiple wins racked up over Medvedev, including in very big settings, will only aid the confidence further.

He beat Daniil Medvedev in four sets at the US Open and since then Jannik Sinner has crushed the same opponent in Shanghai and in the exhibition tournament held in Saudi Arabia (exhibition in terms of being a Ranking event, the money on offer made it plenty serious).

In his current form, it is really hard to look past Jannik Sinner franking those hard court victories with another in front of the home crowd, even if a place in the Semi Final has been secured by the result from the other Group match.

Daniil Medvedev had a bit more focus in his win over Alex De Minaur, but that has been a better match up than facing the World Number 1 and we may see the Russian quickly lose hope in this one. He does become very motivated when the crowd get on his back, but there is every chance that Medvedev will fall away in this one and Jannik Sinner can secure a third straight win to really push his credentials as a potential Champion of the event this weekend.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 0.92 Units (8 Units Staked, + 11.50% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 13th November)

Half of the Group Stage is already in the books in Turin at the World Tour Finals and we have yet to have a player who has officially been eliminated and one that has progressed through to the Semi Final.

It has been a strange end of year tournament so far with very little drama attached as every match has been completed in straight sets.

My hope is that we will see that change with the second of my two Picks from Day 4 at the tournament, while there is still a hope for fans that the 'dream Final' could take place in the Knock Out Rounds, albeit perhaps in the Semi Final instead.

Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: An upset in his first match at the World Tour Finals was partially attributed to a cold, but Carlos Alcaraz will not be making too many excuses for the performance against Casper Ruud. The World Number 2 admitted he had not been feeling his best on Monday morning having been suffering with an illness in the days leading up to the event, but another couple of days should have helped.

He cannot afford to be begin this match slowly with the place in the Semi Final looking a little shaky, but Carlos Alcaraz does still have time to turn things around.

First up is this important match against Andrey Rublev, who was also beaten in straight sets in the first match at the World Tour Finals. There have been some positive moments in 2024 for the very consistent Rublev, but too many letdowns and that has contributed to a slight dip in the World Ranking.

Serving was not a problem in the defeat to Alexander Zverev, but Andrey Rublev was not good enough on the returning side of his tennis and it ultimately led to a pretty routine defeat. He does hold a win over Carlos Alcaraz on the clay courts of Madrid in the lead up to the French Open, but Rublev will also remember being pretty well beaten by the Spaniard when they met in Turin at this event twelve months ago.

There is most definitely room for improvement as far as the Carlos Alcaraz serve goes on the hard courts, but the feeling is that someone like Andrey Rublev may not be able to take full advantage of that. We know how well the Russian can serve when feeling at his best, but the scoreboard pressure has been telling when he has not been able to get into return games and that may be the problem for the lower Ranked player in this Group match.

You have to be a little concerned about the illness that Carlos Alcaraz has been dealing with and whether he has had enough time to get a little better. He looked stronger in the second set of his defeat to Casper Ruud and the day of rest between matches should do Carlos Alcaraz the world of good and help him get back into a position to Qualify for the Semi Final.

Andrey Rublev is not someone who will give up, and the win over Alcaraz earlier this year will give him confidence. However, the higher Ranked player has been stronger on the hard courts and that should see him win this match and cover the handicap mark set.

Alexander Zverev-Casper Ruud over 21.5 games: The winner of this match will have one foot in the Semi Final and so there is plenty of motivation for Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud when they head out on Wednesday to back up strong opening performances.

Out of the two players, the numbers produced by Alexander Zverev in his win over Andrey Rublev were the more impressive of the two players set to meet in this second Group match.

However, Casper Ruud will have taken a lot of confidence out of his upset of Carlos Alcaraz, even if the latter was perhaps not at 100% as he battled an illness as well as the Norwegian. It is a victory that gives Ruud a really good chance of getting out of this Group, but you cannot ignore the performances heading into the World Tour Finals.

Beating Carlos Alcaraz will create headlines, but Casper Ruud will know that this is a significant test against an opponent who is unlikely to be weakened by an illness. It also should be noted that Alexander Zverev won the Paris Masters ahead of this tournament so will not be lacking for confidence as he looks for a big victory that could make the last match with Carlos Alcaraz an effective 'dead rubber'.

There is work for both players to do and the target has to be any sort of victory in this match- a victory in straight sets would make it very difficult for the winner to be eliminated in the Group Stage and that would be the ultimate goal for both players.

Alexander Zverev deserves an edge considering the much stronger form in the run up to the last Singles event of the 2024 season, especially as it felt like Casper Ruud was just going to be making up the numbers. The latter will have to serve well to keep up with Alexander Zverev, but Casper Ruud is capable and he did reach the Final of this event a couple of years ago, which suggests some enjoyment playing on these indoor hard courts.

The sole meeting between the players ended in a four set win for Alexander Zverev at the French Open where he eventually was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz in a five set battle in the Final of that Grand Slam event.

The expectation has to be that Alexander Zverev will get the better of this match too, but Casper Ruud might be able to serve well enough to keep this competitive on the scoreboard at least. He has lost a lot of matches since the end of the US Open, but Ruud has kept the majority of those very competitive and doing that on these courts could see the total game line surpassed.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev-Casper Ruud Over 21.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 3-3, - 0.84 Units (6 Units Staked, - 14% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 12th November)

This is the rare tournament in which a player is back out on court just a couple of days after a loss and the two defeated players from Day 1 will open Day 3 in a bid to keep their Singles dream alive.

Another defeat does not necessarily mean the end, but it is very difficult to come through a Group after losing twice and so there is considerable pressure on Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur.

Both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz have produced a win already in the Group and they will be looking to secure passage into the Semi Final without being in a pressurised situation in their final match.

Both matches look pretty good on paper, even at the end of a very long season for all competing in Turin.

Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: This is not quite an official elimination match, but the two losing players from Day 1 meet in the second round robin of Group matches knowing that another loss would make it very difficult to progress. Losing matches is one thing, but losing in straight sets has put both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur in a difficult position as they look to bounce back from the opening defeats.

Neither player will be feeling that good about their level of performance in the first matches played in Turin, but Alex De Minaur may feel he has lost to the player that is likely to dominate the Group.

On the other side, Daniil Medvedev's defeat to Taylor Fritz has left him in a more precarious position and there is little doubt that he has to show more desire than he did when falling into a losing position in the opening match. The antics on the court have gotten some fans a little agitated when they watch Medvedev play, but he is not someone afraid to show what he is thinking and the body language was not very good on Sunday.

It has been a tough year all around for Daniil Medvedev and you do have to question how much desire he has left, even if there is still a passage through to the World Tour Finals Knock Out Rounds. He was competitive against Fritz, but the mentality looked a little fragile and things spiralled away from Daniil Medvedev, which has to be a concern in this match up.

The head to head does read in favour of Daniil Medvedev, but he is facing an opponent in Alex De Minaur who is unlikely to give points away. The sole meeting between the players in 2024 was at the French Open and it was the Australian who came through in four sets to reach the Quarter Final, while Alex De Minaur is someone who would have the hard courts down as his favourite surface.

Alex De Minaur will know he needs to be a lot better than he was in the defeat to Jannik Sinner on Sunday, but he has shown some decent form on the indoor European hard courts in the build up to the World Tour Finals. He has won seven of the eleven matches played since the US Open, although the De Minaur numbers have dipped considerably behind serve and return.

This should mean Daniil Medvedev has the edge, although his own form has been inconsistent and the player has not looked completely happy being on the court. That does lessen enthusiasm for backing him to bounce back and you can see a situation where Daniil Medvedev barely goes through the motions if this match begins to get away from him.

However, unlike the first match, Alex De Minaur is going to offer up more chances on the return for Daniil Medvedev and that may just keep him interested. There should be plenty of Break Points for both considering the issue Medvedev may be dealing with at the moment, but the World Number 4 has the capabilities of bouncing back with his experience of the format perhaps a telling factor too.

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz over 21.5 games: Both of these players opened their World Tour Finals with a victory, although the overall ambitions may still be a little different for Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz.

The World Number 1, Australian Open and US Open Champion, and home favourite Jannik Sinner has to be targeting the title having reached the Final twelve months ago before going down to Novak Djokovic. Winning the Shanghai Masters allowed Sinner to spend a bit of time away from the Tour and he looked fresh and motivated when beating Alex De Minaur with little fuss a couple of days ago.

His opponent also earned a straight sets win, but Taylor Fritz has made it clear that his main ambition is to outperform his World Ranking by reaching the Semi Final at this end of year tournament. Some may feel that is an underwhelming goal, but Fritz has to be given credit for his honesty and there may be a good opportunity to reach the Final with the way the other Group could potentially shape up.

Despite the opening win, Taylor Fritz knows he likely needs at least one more and even picking up a set in a losing effort would put him in a strong position to progress. Of course, the player nor his camp should be thinking about nothing more than their bid to earn the upset against an opponent who beat Taylor Fritz in the US Open Final back in September.

In the main it was a dominant win for Jannik Sinner with Taylor Fritz not serving as well as he would have wanted in that US Open Final. So much of the American's tennis is based around his serve and he will need to be a lot better in this Group match if he is going to give Sinner something different to think about.

The last two professional meetings between these players have both ended in wins for Jannik Sinner and both on the hard courts so you can understand why he is such a big favourite ahead of this match. However, Taylor Fritz may feel he can dictate rallies as long as he can his marks on the serve and he has shown that he can make enough returns to use scoreboard pressure to try and break through the Jannik Sinner wall in front of him.

The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will win and move to the brink of making it through to the Semi Final, but Taylor Fritz can be more competitive than he was at Flushing Meadows. The indoor conditions should help and both players are capable of serving well enough to help this match surpass the total games line set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev to Win @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.64 Units (4 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 11th November)

The second Group at the ATP World Tour Finals is set to open up with a couple of matches on Monday, Day 2 of the tournament.

Jannik Sinner's opening win will have given the home fans plenty of reasons to smile, but it does feel like this Group is much more competitive all around. That could mean a battle-hardened opponent for Sinner in the Semi Final, assuming the World Number 1 will back up the victory over Alex De Minaur to move through this Group Stage of the tournament.

You have to believe the fans are very much hoping that the two top Ranked players in the world are able to work their way through to a meeting for the title next weekend, but the other six players competing in Turin will have something to say about that.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Casper Ruud: He was eligible to play at the ATP World Tour Finals in 2022, but had to withdraw with an injury, and Carlos Alcaraz was beaten in the Semi Final by Novak Djokovic twelve months ago. Winning the French Open and Wimbledon titles meant the Spaniard was always going to have enough Ranking points to return to Turin, although there had been some doubt about his participation after losing in the Quarter Final in Shanghai.

The Spaniard has arrived for the tournament and begins with a match against an out of form Casper Ruud, who missed the ATP World Tour Finals last year. Two years ago Casper Ruud surprisingly reached the Final of the end of year tournament, but matching that would perhaps be a bigger upset than it was in 2022.

This is mainly down the fact that Casper Ruud has played ten matches since being eliminated from the US Open and he has shockingly lost eight of those.

A solid, but unspectacular hard court player, Casper Ruud is going to have to find some strong rhythm very early, especially with this very tough opener in the Group. Losing would not mean elimination, but it would put Ruud under immediate pressure.

Avoiding an opening defeat will not be easy against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, who has produced some very strong hard court numbers even if he has failed to have the kind of impact hoped at the Australian Open and US Open. The Second Round loss in New York City was a real blow for the player who had won the previous two Grand Slam events played and also finished with the Silver Medal at the Paris Olympics.

The World Number 2 did win the title in Beijing since the US Open, but the early loss at the Paris Masters will have knocked some of the confidence.

Even then, Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous meetings with Casper Ruud and the last three have been on the hard courts. There has been a big advantage in favour of the Spaniard when it comes down to their performances in return games, and that has also been evident in the head to head on the hard courts where Carlos Alcaraz has held 85% of service games compared with Casper Ruud's 73% mark.

On current form, Casper Ruud will find it tough to turn that around and Carlos Alcaraz should be able to put together a relatively comfortable win.

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He has previously won the ATP World Tour Finals, although not in Turin, and that will give Alexander Zverev belief in his ability to pick up the title again later this week. The top two players in the World Rankings may have moved past Zverev, but he has shown he can more than compete when at his best and on either the hard courts or clay courts.

Neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Jannik Sinner had to be beaten when Alexander Zverev won the Paris Masters earlier this month. However, it is an important title and on indoor conditions that the Tour likes the World Tour Finals to try and match, which should give the German another boost in confidence.

He will learn plenty about himself in this Group with Carlos Alcaraz due to be met, but Alexander Zverev has to focus on beating Andrey Rublev, who may be the biggest threat to preventing him from earning a spot in the Semi Final.

It has been a mixed season for Andrey Rublev, although he still tends to play his best tennis on the hard courts.

However, the World Number 9 has lost three of his last four matches and there is a feeling that Andrey Rublev will benefit from having a few weeks away from the Tour in order to just reset. He has been a consistent top ten player, but breaking through into the top five regularly has been much more challenging and perhaps underline some of the problems Rublev has had when facing the elite players on the Tour.

2023 saw Andrey Rublev getting the better of Alexander Zverev on three different occasions, but their last match in 2023 ended in favour of the latter and that was also at the World Tour Finals. It was a day in which Zverev served much more effectively than Andrey Rublev and we could see something similar when they meet on Day 2 in opening Group matches.

Over the course of the season, Alexander Zverev has been slightly more effective behind serve, while the recent Andrey Rublev form may just mean he is lacking in confidence in his bid for the upset.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.65 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, - 0.30 Units (2 Units Staked, - 15% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 10th November)

Looking back at the 2024 season, the stand out moment came very early on after an incredibly poor showing at the Australian Open as far as the Tennis Picks were concerned.

It meant playing catch up right from the off and ultimately proved too much to be overcome, which was the feeling back then and something that was written on these pages.

With one more big Singles tournament to be played to conclude the 2024 season, the thoughts begin to turn to a return to the 'scene of the crime' with the Australian Open now fast approaching and improvements at that event will be keen to set a much better foundation. A few changes with the selection process will have to be made to find better angles to attack that tournament and the rest of the year, although the signs from the other three Grand Slams were more positive.

The ATP World Tour Finals continues to be a solid way to end the year and the majority of the top eight will be playing in Turin, although looking past Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz has a potential Champion is difficult after the two players dominated the Grand Slams in 2024.

Novak Djokovic's absence is a blow for the tournament, but there should be plenty of quality tennis for the fans to enjoy before the short off-season gives a chance for players to just reset.

It is an unfamiliar format where a defeat may not mean elimination, but the majority of those playing this week have been a part of the end of season tournament and so will know more about the permutations than most.

Daniil Medvedev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The ATP World Tour Finals set the top eight players in the world for one more big effort to end the season, but it has been a long time since the Finals were played without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

Only the Serb is the 'last man standing' from the Big Three era, but Novak Djokovic has decided to end his 2024 season having achieved what he wanted when winning the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics. Failing to win a Grand Slam will always disappoint Djokovic, but he is going to be refreshed when the Australian Open is played in January, a tournament he has dominated through large parts of his career.

He isn't here in Turin this week and that opens the door for others to step up.

A couple of years ago, it could have been argued that Daniil Medvedev was in the top two when it came to hard court players on the Tour, but he has not enjoyed the best of seasons on the surface. The World Number 4 reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and has matched that run in Beijing and then reached the Semi Final in Shanghai, but the overall numbers have not really been up to the previous standards set by Daniil Medvedev on the surface.

The key area that will need to be improved in 2025 if Medvedev wants to add another Grand Slam title to his collection is the serve- this season the World Number 4 has 'only' held 79% of his service games played on the hard courts, which is considerably below the consistent mid-80 mark set in each of the last several years. In a sport where the margins are as thin as they are, that drop off has just made things more difficult for Daniil Medvedev.

First up in Turin in this Group Stage is a match with Taylor Fritz, the World Number 6 who has had a solid year on the Tour.

He might have been well beaten when all was said and done in the US Open Final, but that is the biggest impact Taylor Fritz has had in a Grand Slam and he has since produced a Semi Final run in Shanghai.

Taylor Fritz has not really reached the highs that Daniil Medvedev has on a hard court, but he has a serve that makes him dangerous and he has held 87% of service games played on the hard courts. Ultimately he has not been as productive on the return, which is still an area that needs to be improved, and Fritz will have to make sure he serves well in this one.

The indoor hard court used in Turin has regularly seen long matches develop in the ATP World Tour Finals and the feeling is that this opening 2024 Group Stage match could end up being another one of those. Daniil Medvedev might not have served as well as he would have hoped in 2024, but he is facing an opponent that is not always at his most comfortable working on his return game.

However, the American serves well enough to remain competitive and he could force a tie-breaker or two with the likelihood that the match needs a decider. In a Group that contains Jannik Sinner, this match could be the one that decides who follows the World Number 1 into the Semi Final and there is every chance it will be one that goes long before a winner is determined.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: If Novak Djokovic had been able to take part in the ATP World Tour Finals, Alex De Minuar would have been travelling to Turin as an alternative. Instead he will be playing in the Group Stage immediately, although the Australian is still looking to get back into a position to surpass his career best World Ranking mark.

He will be ending the year at a higher Ranking than where he began and that will mean Alex De Minaur is pretty satisfied with the work put in over the calendar year. A short break will be well earned and then the focus will quickly turn to the Australian Open and peaking for the first Grand Slam of the season, which comes with the bonus of being in De Minaur's home country.

An injury in the middle of the season has prevented Alex De Minaur from earning a place in the ATP World Tour Finals directly, while he has remained more than a steady and confident player when operating on the hard courts.

The lack of matches against top 10 rivals since the first quarter of the season perhaps works against Alex De Minaur, especially as he gets the toughest match in the Group first up.

Jannik Sinner broke through and won a maiden Grand Slam title back in January in Melbourne and backed that up by winning the US Open in September. The most recent win in New York City has highlighted the controversy around the World Number 1 who failed a doping test in March, something that only came to light a couple of weeks before the US Open was beginning.

So many have had their say about the situation and an appeal has been placed after Sinner avoided a suspension, but he will be playing in a very comfortable environment at this tournament. There were some negative opinions voiced about Jannik Sinner from the stands at the US Open, but he has not allowed that to affect his tennis and Sinner has followed up by reaching the Beijing Final and then winning the Shanghai Masters.

Twelve months ago Jannik Sinner showed what he is capable of by beating Novak Djokovic in the ATP World Tour Finals Group Stage before losing to the same opponent in the Final. However, that sparked his successes in 2024 and the Italian holds a 45-3 record in hard court matches, which makes him a big favourite to at least win this Group.

We know how well Jannik Sinner protects the serve, but an aggressive returning style has really pushed him forward and he should be comfortable in this match up.

In seven previous matches against Alex De Minaur, Jannik Sinner has won each time and the numbers have been heavily skewed in his favour. The Australian is going to have to serve really well if he wants to remain competitive, never mind winning the match, and you just have to feel that Jannik Sinner can be inspired by the home fans to just pull through for a comfortable enough win.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2023- Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic (November 19th)

It has been a fun week in Turin as the Singles Tour comes to a close in 2023.

We still have the Davis Cup to be handed out, but for most, this will be the end of the season and preparation will begin for the 2024 season and the first Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

On Sunday, we have a rematch of a Group Stage match to determine the next World Tour Finals Champion and it should be played in a very good atmosphere as Novak Djokovic looks to win another big title.

Jannik Sinner will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for what can be achieved in 2024 and it has the makings of a very good end to the 2023 season.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: They met in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals and both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner have come through their Semi Final matches on Saturday to compete for the last Singles title of 2023.

Jannik Sinner won their Group match in three tough sets, and he managed to win all four matches played in Turin in front of his home fans. However, one of those wins, the one over Holger Rune, is the only reason that Novak Djokovic is still involved in the tournament and the World Number 1 looks to be peaking with his best performance this week being in the Semi Final win over rival Carlos Alcaraz.

Nothing will come easy for Novak Djokovic in this one and he will know that this is a tough match having lost Group contest. It was a match that lasted over three hours and Sinner finally was able to get the better of Novak Djokovic in their fourth meeting on the Tour.

That will have given him confidence, but Jannik Sinner also needed three sets to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Semi Final and he has played a lot of tennis this week. There were some signs of fatiguing in the Semi Final win, while Jannik Sinner won the big points in the Group win over Novak Djokovic and it will not take a lot for the World Number 1 to turn things around and defend his title won here last year.

Jannik Sinner has really been making good use of the conditions in Turin and his serve has been a big weapon for him, as it was in the win over Djokovic.

However, it should be noted that the Italian won 69% of the points played on serve compared with Novak Djokovic's 73% mark in that match.

Over the course of the tournament, Novak Djokovic has had a narrow edge with the returning performance and that may show up in this Final.

The margins are expected to be tight, as they have been in most matches played this week in fast conditions, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will be extra motivated after losing in the Group. He will have a much better feel for the kind of atmosphere he will face and Djokovic has proven to be someone that can gain a lot of motivation over perceived slights.

In all likelihood, Novak Djokovic would have learned plenty from the loss earlier this week and he is expected to find the solutions needed to turn things around.

The pricing is basically the same as it was when these two players met in the Group Stage, but this time it looks worth backing the World Number 1 to do enough to edge past Jannik Sinner and cover this handicap mark.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 8.52 Units (24 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 18th)

It was always going to be a big ask of Daniil Medvedev to want to fight back when falling behind to Carlos Alcaraz and it made little sense with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.

Add to that the fact that a straight sets defeat would mean avoiding Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final and Daniil Medvedev will likely be pleased with his Group performance.

The top four players have all made it through to the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and you'd find long odds on someone other than one of these four winning the Australian Open, which begins in a couple of months time.

With that in mind, this feels like an important end to the World Tour Finals as all four will be looking to lay down a marker to their rivals and show that they are ready to win the next Grand Slam getting underway at Melbourne Park.

Both Semi Finals look like they could be filled with drama, as my Tennis Picks for Saturday suggest.

Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev over 23.5 games: The Semi Final line up was confirmed after Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev in the Friday Day Session, and it might not have been the worst news for the latter.

Losing that match means finishing second and that also means Daniil Medvedev faces Jannik Sinner rather than Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.

In saying that, this might be as tough as a match with Djokovic would have been with Daniil Medvedev facing a quality opponent as well as the Turin crowd. He has also lost the last two matches against Jannik Sinner with both of those played on the hard courts since the US Open, although both have been incredibly competitive affairs, much as what the expectation is for this Semi Final.

Those wins have ended Daniil Medvedev's run of six straight wins over Jannik Sinner, which includes two wins earlier this year. One of those was on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam, while Medvedev beat Jannik Sinner at the World Tour Finals in 2021, although again in three sets.

Both of these players have enjoyed the fast, indoor hard court conditions in Turin and Jannik Sinner has held 95% of his service games, while Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his own. At the same time, both are breaking in 16% of return games and there is every chance that serve will dominate in this Semi Final.

Even a straight sets win for either player may see this total games line surpassed if Sinner and Medvedev continue to serve at the kind of level we have seen this week. Matches between the players have been highly competitive and the four played in 2023 have ended with a total of 30, 21, 26 and 32 games.

None of the Daniil Medvedev matches in this tournament have needed a decider, but two of the three matches won by Jannik Sinner have had a third set. The feeling is that both are playing well enough to win a set in this Semi Final and this should be the latest of an exciting, competitive match between the two players most likely to break the Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic dominance of Grand Slam titles in 2024.

Jannik Sinner may deserve the narrow edge as favourite, but Daniil Medvedev loves these kind of conditions and looking for the total to be surpassed is a better angle than trying to determine a winner.

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 23.5 games: The top four ATP players in the World Rankings have made it through to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals, although the World Number 1 and 2 will face off for a place in Sunday's Final.

Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have had to overcome Group losses to make it through to the final four so may feel they are destined to win this title.

Novak Djokovic in particular has to be grateful that Jannik Sinner put in such an effort to beat Holger Rune in the final Group match. It was a match that meant little in terms of Qualification for the Italian, but a professional performance has given Djokovic life in the World Tour Finals.

The defending Champion has not had things all his own way since the US Open- he needed three sets to beat alternate Hubert Hurkacz and that means Novak Djokovic it has been the case in six of his last seven matches played. In general he has won those, although Djokovic was beaten in three sets by Jannik Sinner in the Group Stage.

The serve continues to be an underrated part of Novak Djokovic's tennis, but the conditions in Turin have really tested his return. He may be considered the best return player of all time, but Djokovic has only broken in 14% of return games played at the World Tour Finals and he is not expected to get a lot of change out of Carlos Alcaraz.

After being used to a rivalry with a player from Spain, Novak Djokovic will be looking to make a mark on Carlos Alcaraz and earn the mental edge to take into 2024. Early in the season, Alcaraz will not have any World Ranking points to defend and will want to head to Australia with a big win over his top rival on the Tour as he looks to close the gap at the top of the World Rankings.

Winning this tournament would also do that and Carlos Alcaraz has looked comfortable in the conditions after opening up the Group with a defeat.

Like Djokovic, the Spaniard is performing very well behind serve, but has 'only' broken in 16% of return games played.

And much like the other Semi Final, this looks like a match that could need a decider between two players who have been separated by very little in all of their matches played against one another this year.

Carlos Alcaraz wilted at the French Open as the stresses cramped up the body, but won in five sets in the Wimbledon Final before Novak Djokovic needed all three sets to win the Cincinnati Final. Prior to the cramps at Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were involved in another tight scrap and the feeling is that this Semi Final is going to be extremely competitive too.

Their match in Cincinnati saw Carlos Alcaraz edge the returning numbers, but it was a tight, tight match and that is why so many want to see Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic competing against one another.

Both have to feel that the winner can go on and pick up the title on Sunday, which should only increase the tension in this Semi Final, and it is another match that may surpass a pretty high total games line for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Over 23.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 8-2, + 8.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 43.10% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 17th)

There was some uncertainty as to how the second Group match to be played on Thursday was going to develop after Novak Djokovic only edged to a win earlier in the day.

Jannik Sinner showed he is plenty professional by coming through another tough three setter to eliminate Holger Rune and he does have a day of rest between the Semi Final to recover.

While he is resting, Jannik Sinner will find out who that Semi Final opponent is on Friday with one more place still to confirmed and that could be decided as soon as the first match is played. A Carlos Alcaraz win would be enough, but Alexander Zverev is still hoping for a Daniil Medvedev favour, which would mean having an opportunity to earn his own spot in the Semi Final in the Evening Session.

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Two wins and both in straight sets has moved Daniil Medvedev through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday and so you have to wonder how much motivation he brings onto the court. The chance to beat Carlos Alcaraz and potentially knock him out of the tournament will offer some motivation, but Daniil Medvedev will not want to have to exert too much energy to do that knowing he has a Semi Final spot wrapped up.

It is not easy for a tennis player to come out and deliberately play poorly, but you would question how much Daniil Medvedev is going to want to run in this tough Group match. Even a straight sets defeat is not going to impact his place in the next Round, although there is the question mark about whether he wins the Group that is yet to be settled.

Ultimately he will know his potential Semi Final opponent with the other Group being completed on Thursday evening, but Daniil Medvedev has always indicated that he is a player that only concentrates on what is best for him.

The win over Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open should actually provide plenty of ammunition for the World Number 2 as he looks to reach the Semi Final for the first time at this event.

His comfortable win over Andrey Rublev means Carlos Alcaraz has some control about his own future at the tournament.

Winning in straight sets means Carlos Alcaraz wins the Group and Alexander Zverev is unable to Qualify, although any win for the Spaniard is going to be good enough to progress without having to worry about what happens later in the day.

The performance in the win over Andrey Rublev is encouraging and Carlos Alcaraz will feel that he deserved more when losing to Daniil Medvedev in New York City.

Prior to that, Alcaraz dominated two matches against Medvedev, including on the hard courts of Indian Wells, and the Spaniard may be willing to work that much harder than his opponent in this final Group match. Ultimately that can make the difference on the day and Carlos Alcaraz can certainly keep Daniil Medvedev on the back foot with his serving as long as he can reach the levels shown against Medvedev's compatriot.

Daniil Medvedev is a quality hard court player and loves the indoor conditions too.

However, the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz who has should showcase a lot more desire in this match compared with Daniil Medvedev. This should be a tight match, but those margins to determine the winner can be edged by Alcaraz, who has more to play for, and he can earn a priceless victory to move into the Semi Finals.

Andrey Rublev v Alexander Zverev: Straight sets losses can be very hard to overcome in the World Tour Finals Group Stage, but most would anticipate that two wins would be enough to take them through to the Semi Final.

This may not be the case in either Group this year so Alexander Zverev is likely going to have someone keeping an eye on the Day Session match in this Group. Any win for Carlos Alcaraz would mean the straight sets loss to Daniil Medvedev would have eliminated Zverev before taking to the court for his final match.

You could see in the body language of his defeat to Medvedev that Alexander Zverev knew the importance of losing in straight sets hours after Carlos Alcaraz had beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

That defeat has eliminated Andrey Rublev from reaching the Semi Final for a second season in a row as he prepares to play his final match of the season before turning attention to building and improving ahead of the January start for the 2024 Tour.

Andrey Rublev has shown frustration in his two losses and he has been well beaten by both Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz.

A run to the Final and reaching two other Semi Finals between the US Open and the World Tour Finals should have given Andrey Rublev plenty of belief, but he continues to struggle to impose himself on the other top players on the Tour.

However, Rublev has won all three matches played against Alexander Zverev this season having previously lost all five matches played on the Tour against the German. The last of those wins came last month in Vienna on an indoor hard court and there may be a good reason to back the underdog to upset Alexander Zverev in this last Group match.

In the two hard court matches played between Rublev and Zverev in 2023, the Russian has held 96% of his service games compared with the latter's 75% mark. Andrey Rublev did save all 6 Break Points played in that clash in Vienna, but those were only earned in two service games and Rublev actually created 10 Break Points of his own on that day.

He doesn't have anything to gain from this final match, but Andrey Rublev has performed like a player willing to give his all each time he comes onto the court. With the potential Alexander Zverev elimination already confirmed by the time the two come out on the court, Andrey Rublev can maintain his current positive run against the German and win this match as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-1, + 8.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 56% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 16th)

It is time to get the calculators out as we try and work out the final permutations in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals.

That means it might be a situation where we need to wait until the first Singles match is completed to be able to make a decent selection for the second Group match. It is the approach that I will be taking for the next two days and that is because there is a serious impact on motivations for players involved in the second match depending on the outcome of the first.

We have a first alternate in action on Thursday as Group A rounds off and there is still a chance that Novak Djokovic could be eliminated even if he wins two out of the three matches played. The only way he can feel good about his chances of progressing is by winning his match in straight sets, but Hubert Hurkacz can be awkward, while Jannik Sinner is not certain to progress even with two wins from two matches.

Check back in at around 5pm by which time I should have further thoughts about the second Singles match scheduled for the day.

Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: After suggesting he was being 'humble' in declaring himself favourite to win the ATP World Tour Finals for a seventh time, Novak Djokovic finds himself in a slightly awkward position.

The permutations have just gotten a little complicated after Holger Rune was awarded a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas after just three games were played on Tuesday. It does mean the final standings will only become clear at the end of the Evening Session, but all Novak Djokovic can do is focus on what he can control.

Winning this match will give him a chance of progressing and winning in straight sets would likely be enough to take Novak Djokovic through to the Semi Final. Even that will come down to the final scoreboard of the other Group match taking place, but the World Number 1 has to make sure he is energised and ready to compete against a fresh alternate who comes in for the injured Tsitsipas.

Hubert Hurkacz was very close to a top eight finish and a place in the ATP World Tour Finals on his own merits after winning a couple of titles between the US Open and Turin. He has a big serve and while he has not had many top 10 wins on the hard courts this season, Hubert Hurkacz has given those opponents something to think about with his serve able to keep him competitive.

It is something that Novak Djokovic will be aware of- he has won all six previous matches against the big Pole, but their clash at Wimbledon in July needed four tight sets to separate the players with Hurkacz serving incredibly well on the day.

He is going to have to do the same in Turin with Hubert Hurkacz likely to be very aware of the poor returning numbers produced against Novak Djokovic. However, while Hurkacz has been resting and practicing, Djokovic has had to play two matches that have lasted over three hours and that emotional and physical effort already produced could leave him lacking his full strength on Thursday.

This has to have some impact on this match, even if Novak Djokovic is likely going to have the majority of Break Points as he pushes enough returns back in play. In general, Hubert Hurkacz has found it much tougher to break through the Djokovic defences, even behind serve, and so you can understand why the World Number 1 is considered such a strong favourite.

However, a bit of tiredness may mean Novak Djokovic is not quite able to push for multiple Breaks of serve, while his own serve may be more vulnerable than normal, and that could see this match become the third involving Djokovic that surpasses the total games line set.

Jannik Sinner v Holger Rune: The immediate thought is how is a player going to recover after finally beating the World Number 1, but in a match that lasted over three hours and one in which Jannik Sinner had to expend a lot of energy.

It is a victory that has put the Italian on the brink of reaching the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals being played in Turin, but Jannik Sinner may still have some work to do.

That will largely depend on Novak Djokovic and whether he has won his match- if he has, Jannik Sinner will need to win at least a set against Holger Rune to progress and the expectation is that Sinner will be preparing knowing he needs to come out firing.

Losing a set would not eliminate Holger Rune after the three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas- he would have preferred to win the match without a retirement as it could have bolstered his position ahead of this final Group match, but Holger Rune will know a win could be enough to take him through.

While things will be clear by the time the players enter the court, it is really the earlier match that could dictate motivations of the players involved.

Novak Djokovic winning in straight sets means Jannik Sinner would not at least a set, but a three set win for Holger Rune would mean having to get the calculators out as game won percentage takes over as the tie-breaker. The Dane will know that his three game win over Stefanos Tsitsipas could then work against him, especially as he 'only' held serve twice in that match, and things could become very complicated with Holger Rune perhaps taking too many chances.

The recommendation would certainly be to have a watching brief on how the other match has ended before really making a call in this one.

However, you do have to say that Jannik Sinner is the stronger hard court player out of the two involved in this match. He has lost both previous Tour matches against Holger Rune, including their sole hard court meeting, but the latter has not been at his most consistent best in the second half of the season while Sinner has been pushing forward and looking every bit the potential Grand Slam Champion in the making.

With a home crowd pushing him forward, the feeling is that Jannik Sinner will find a way to win this match and Holger Rune could wilt away when he feels the chances of progression are beyond him. However, there is too much riding on how the other Group match is played out and so any units for this selection will be updated on Thursday after the Novak Djokovic match is completed.

[UPDATE]: So Novak Djokovic did win in three sets.

It means he needs a favour from Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is through no matter what and this feels a big opportunity for Holger Rune.

There is far too much uncertainty for me in this match about the motivations of Jannik Sinner and the only good play may be backing Rune to win.

However, Holger Rune has been inconsistent over the second half of the year and the fans are going to be behind Sinner, which just makes this a match to watch.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 6-1, + 7.64 Units (14 Units Staked, + 54.57% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 15th)

Losing to Jannik Sinner has already made progress to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals a little more awkward for Novak Djokovic and the considerable time spent on the court might be an issue on Thursday.

An injury suffered by Stefanos Tsitsipas could mean an alternate, Hubert Hurkacz, could come in and this fresh player could be very dangerous.

Jannik Sinner's win has likely moved him into a Semi Final as he has made it two from two in the Group, and the home fans are expected to be important to him over the next few days. He has one more big Group match to be played against Holger Rune, with the latter also keen to progress, and the two Thursday matches will be of huge interest for the fans.

Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The two players who lost their opening Group matches have a chance to make amends and give themselves an opportunity to reach the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals. Both will have been frustrated with their opening performances, and eventual defeats, but Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev can still have a big impact in Turin.

Last year Andrey Rublev did reach the Semi Final at this event, while Carlos Alcaraz had to miss out, and both have a couple of injuries to deal with at the back end of a long year on the Tour. Neither will want those injuries to affect their levels early in the 2024 season with the Australian Open beginning in two months time and so there is some uncertainty as to how much they will apply themselves after the losses suffered on Monday.

However, Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev have been two of the hardest working players out there as they look to maximise all of the ability they have and the expectation is that there will be a big effort to get back on track in the Group before the deciding matches are played on Friday.

Carlos Alcaraz will feel he let his match with Alexander Zverev slip away having had chances to break serve at the end of the first set and early in the second set, when he would have taken complete control of the match.

Instead he was downed in three sets, although the time spent on the court should benefit the Spaniard in his debut appearance at the World Tour Finals.

He also played in the Day Session on Monday so there is ample recovery time after spending two and a half hours on the court. A bigger concern may be the fact that Carlos Alcaraz has now lost three of his last four matches on the hard courts when facing a top 10 Ranked opponent, even if he has been competitive in those recent defeats.

That may be a mental obstacle to overcome, but the same cane be said for Andrey Rublev who wilted in his defeat to compatriot and friend Daniil Medvedev and who now has a 2-6 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2023. For a long time, Andrey Rublev has struggled to deal with the emotions and mental drain that playing the top players will produce on someone and we saw more of that on Monday as he could not hide his frustrations deep into the second set of a straight sets loss.

Andrey Rublev is consistent, as mentioned in the Monday selection, but he has also consistently come up short against the top players on the Tour.

The only concern in backing Carlos Alcaraz is whether he is still dealing with an injury that is keeping his best tennis away from the court, but he did play well enough against Alexander Zverev and this might be a more comfortable match up as these two face off for the first time on the Tour.

We should see more rallies and that is where Alcaraz can eventually make his quality come through and he can bounce back in this one.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The eventual scoreboard made it feel like Daniil Medvedev had a much easier time against Andrey Rublev than it was, especially the tight first set that saw both players have to save multiple Break Points. By the end of the match Daniil Medvedev had control though and he is looking to virtually seal a spot in the Semi Final.

A straight sets win over Alexander Zverev will do that, no matter what has happened in the other match in the Group, and Daniil Medvedev has to be very confident in facing this opponent.

Alexander Zverev came from a set down to beat Carlos Alcaraz on Monday and he is another of the former Champions of this event that is taking part in the tournament. Four previous ATP World Tour Finals matches between these players have been split 2-2 with the most important won by Zverev in becoming Champion after a straight sets win over Daniil Medvedev in 2021.

However, more often than not, Daniil Medvedev has not been too concerned when it comes to facing Alexander Zverev on the hard courts and not after finally beating him for the first time on this surface in October 2019.

Prior to that, Alexander Zverev had won all four hard court matches between these players, but the win in Shanghai in 2019 has sparked a run in which Daniil Medvedev has won eight of their eleven meetings on the surface. He has won two of the three hard court matches that have taken place in 2023 and it is Daniil Medvedev who has played the bigger points better of the two players.

Both are reliant on strong serving, although a narrow edge has been with Daniil Medvedev who has won 69% of service points played and held 90% of service games played against Alexander Zverev since his first win on the hard courts over four years ago. At the same time, Zverev has marks of 64% and 81% respectively and those fine margins have led to the majority of wins landing in favour of the Russian.

Even in their three hard court matches played in 2023, Daniil Medvedev has held 88% of the service games played compared with Alexander Zverev's mark of 84%.

Having spent a bit less physical and emotional effort in his win on Monday, Daniil Medvedev can break the tie at the World Tour Finals event and beat Alexander Zverev. The latter ended his win over Carlos Alcaraz with a slight issue with his ankle and it may just mean he is not as focused to get drawn into a long, drawn out slog with Daniil Medvedev, which ultimately may mean forcing the attack and leading to Zverev mistakes.

An aggressive approach is not a bad way to try and get after Daniil Medvedev, but it is going to be a little alien to Alexander Zverev if he is to get up to the net more often than usual. And with the head to head as it stands, you have to favour Medvedev to just be a little stronger at the key moments of this one as he looks to return to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 4-1, + 4.38 Units (10 Units Staked, + 43.80% Yield)