ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Picks 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 17th November)

The last big Singles match in the 2024 season will decide the Champion of the World Tour Finals and it is a match that we have already seen in Turin.

Both Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner were playing in the same Group and they will meet with the title on the line on Sunday in what is also a repeat of the US Open Final from September.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: After wins over Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon and the US Open, Taylor Fritz dug in to see off the German in a very close, competitive Semi Final on Saturday.

This means Taylor Fritz has surpassed his own expectations of the tournament and he has certainly gotten the mental edge over Zverev, but backing that up and winning the biggest title of his career is going to be another significant challenge for the American.

He may have had a bit more time to rest and recover ahead of the Final, but Jannik Sinner made very easy work of Casper Ruud in his own Semi Final and so that is not expected to be a factor.

There is no doubt that the toughest win that Sinner has had in this tournament was against Taylor Fritz in the Group- he has broken the other three opponents at least three times, but Jannik Sinner was 'only' able to do that twice against Fritz in that match.

What should be noted is that Jannik Sinner had considerably more success on the return of serve against Taylor Fritz than anyone has managed in Turin. Taylor Fritz has won at least 70% of the service points played in each of the three wins this week, but that number dropped to 62% against Jannik Sinner and there is no doubt that the underdog will be under more pressure to hit his marks.

At his best, Taylor Fritz can do that, but he invested a lot into the Semi Final win over Alexander Zverev and the scoreboard pressure could be tough to deal with.

Jannik Sinner has served at a high level all week and he will likely keep Taylor Fritz contained on this side of the court, while building the pressure with his return.

Covering this spread will not be easy, especially if Taylor Fritz wins the toss and decides to serve first.

However, the Italian World Number 1 has found a way to get on top of the Fritz serve for long enough to create the Break Points and, ultimately, move into a position to win the title with a good looking win on the scoreboard. Last season Sinner had to face an opponent he had beaten in the Group Stage in the Final of this tournament and was beaten by Novak Djokovic, but twelve months on and Sinner is the best hard court player in the world who can round out 2024 with yet another strong win on the surface.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 10-4, + 4.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 31.86% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning efforts week after week in the NFL was simply not going to be a run that could be sustained.

Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, eight had ended with a positive number behind the selections, but Week 10 was a huge blow.

Despite that, the season totals are still very much in a strong position, and that is what has to be remembered as we reset and try and go again.

Some of the selections were poor, which can happen- the Giants proved to be a team chasing the top Draft Pick when losing in Munich and they never looked like covering as a big favourite, that was simply a poor Pick. Matthew Stafford must have missed a number of wide open Touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but again, it felt like a poor Pick pretty early as the Los Angeles Rams kept getting bogged down.

However, it still amazes me to think that Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta all failed to cover last week.

The former two both ended up winning, but the Falcons were beaten outright, although all three made so many mistakes that prevented them getting over the numbers set.

Sam Darnold didn't throw one, or two Interceptions inside the Red Zone, but three of those in what ended up being a five point win to miss the cover by just three points.

And the less said about the San Francisco and Atlanta kickers the better with both combining to miss multiple efforts from reasonable distance to the point that even Deebo Samuel decided to let Jake Moody know what he thought of his efforts. These are kicks that really won't be missed too often and on another day all three teams would have returned winners, so it is best not to move too far away from what has been successful so far this season.

Kickers proved to be the difference makers for Kansas City too as the last unbeaten team of the season moved through another week after the Special Teams blocked Denver's chip shot Field Goal to win the game in Week 10.

Maintaining that unbeaten run through Week 11 looks to be a huge test for Kansas City when they visit the Buffalo Bills in what many feel could be a game that ends up being replayed to decide the Super Bowl participant from the AFC.

This is the standout game of Week 11, especially on Sunday, but there are other big games beginning with a top looking NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football with the lead of the Division on the line. Moving into November means the intensity is picking up and Thanksgiving is now a couple of weeks away, which usually signals the turn into the home run for those hoping to have extended post-season runs.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Week 11 begins with a big NFC East game featuring the top two teams in the Division on Thursday Night Football.

In reality, it would be a huge disappointment if both the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3) were not able to secure enough wins to earn a place in the post-season, although there is also little doubt that winning the Division would be a huge boost towards having a deep Playoff run.

It is the Philadelphia Eagles who continue to produce wins, despite the noise around the team- the fans have simply been on edge far too much this season and Head Coach Nick Sirianni may feel that he has to win the Super Bowl if he is going to be retained in the job, which really does not help.

Despite that, Sirianni has led the Philadelphia Eagles to the top of the Division after a crushing win over the injury hit Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 and that makes it five wins in a row for the Eagles. In reality, we can't really know too much about Philadelphia considering who they have beaten this season, although the thumping of the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago looks the most impressive.

Washington were beaten on Sunday by the Pittsburgh Steelers and like the Eagles, the schedule has not exactly been the most taxing. There is no doubting the improvement with Jayden Daniels leading the team at Quarter Back, but the Commanders's best win came early in the season at the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals and they have struggled to beat too many good teams since then.

This is a real prove it moment for the rookie Quarter Back and the rest of the team with Washington playing on the short week and looking to reclaim top place in the NFC East.

The Commanders will be hoping Brian Robinson Jr is able to suit up having struggled to really get the ground going as it had been earlier in the season. Jayden Daniels is another threat when it comes to running the ball, but the Commanders will need all of their weapons in their bid to break down a Philadelphia Defensive Line that have really taken pride in clamping down up front.

We have seen enough from the rookie Quarter Back to expect him to make some big plays and extend drives on the ground or through the air. Jayden Daniels is facing one of the Defensive units in really good form though and he did have some issues when facing the Pittsburgh Defensive unit last week, which suggests this could be another challenging night for him.

Jayden Daniels has been well protected in the main part, especially with his capabilities of shifting the pocket, and that should help as he looks to find holes in this improving Philadelphia Secondary. It is very important for the Commanders to establish the run and see if that can open up things down the field, but overall it looks another tough match up for Washington after the tough test faced in Week 10.

At the same time, Philadelphia have to be expecting a lot more resistance from Washington than they ended up getting from Divisional rivals Dallas last Sunday. However, Nick Sirianni has to be very pleased with what he has been seeing Offensively with the team really looking a lot more confident now they have someone like Saquon Barkley running the ball as efficiently as he has been.

While there are some doubts about what Washington are going to be able to do on the ground, the same may not be true for the Eagles. The Philadelphia Offensive Line have been cracking open some big lanes for Barkley, while Jalen Hurts continues to offer a threat to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and this is going to be a massive test for Washington's Defensive Line.

Throughout the course of the season, the Commanders have had some issues shutting down the run and recent outings have not been any different.

It should mean Philadelphia are playing in a comfortable down and distance, which will open up the playbook and the Washington Secondary may be without Marshon Lattimore again after his trade from the New Orleans Saints. The passing numbers have not looked so bad, but that may be down to the fact that teams are capable of running the ball very well against the Commanders.

They will also be dealing with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on Thursday Night Football, as well as trying to contain Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground and that balance is going to give the Philadelphia Eagles the edge in this Divisional game.

Going against Jayden Daniels, even as a rookie, is not easy considering his ability to make big plays and the backdoor cover is open, even in a losing effort. However, Washington were beaten by a Touchdown at Baltimore and were blown out at Tampa Bay, while they were pretty much second best in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.

A short week is a new test for the rookie Quarter Back and the Eagles are playing very well Defensively, which should mean there is enough room for the talented playmakers to win this game and cover the mark set.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It is the quirkiness of the regular season schedule that AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) have yet to play any of their six Divisional games in 2024. That does mean six of the remaining eight games will be against those opponents, but the foundation laid down by the Steelers means that they could kick on and win the Division.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin gave a reporter short shrift when questioned about the schedule and made it clear his Pittsburgh team are always ready to face those within the Division no matter where the NFL places them during the eighteen week regular season.

Four wins in a row have really pushed the momentum behind the Steelers, although the teams beaten are perhaps not amongst those that will be hoping to reach the Super Bowl.

In Week 11, that changes significantly when the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) come to town having swept the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024 thanks to a narrow win on Thursday Night Football. It means the Ravens have had something of a mini-Bye, which is important for a team that doesn't have the official Bye Week until early December.

The extra preparation time is going to be important with Baltimore hoping to turn things around in this series with their big rivals in Pittsburgh. Despite the recent seasons seeing Baltimore more likely to push towards a Super Bowl, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who have won seven of eight games against this Divisional rival, including sweeping them in 2023.

However, the one exception in that run was a Baltimore win here in Pittsburgh two seasons ago and the road team do look the superior of the two.

It hasn't counted for much in the recent head to head, but this time the Ravens will be bringing Derrick Henry to town and that could be important in just shifting things around. The Ravens have been able to run very well under John Harbaugh, but the Offensive Line this season is boosted by the power of Henry in the backfield behind Lamar Jackson and that is going to be really important as they look for the road win to move ahead of the Steelers in the Division race.

As is the case with a lot of Divisional rivals, teams are built to stop the others doing what they want to do the most and the Steelers have long prided themselves on being a team that can stop the run. For much of the season they have been strong up front, but during this four game winning run, there have been one or two missed assignments and that would be a massive mistake against this Baltimore Offensive Line.

Lamar Jackson's dual-threat has always been something for the Steelers to focus on, but it is much more difficult knowing a power Back like Derrick Henry could be given the ball. Some may have thought his race had been run in Tennessee, but Henry has shown there is plenty left in the tank and the late Bye Week for the Baltimore Ravens could be crucial for how effective the Running Back remains to be in January and beyond.

We should see Baltimore have success on the ground and that should mean Lamar Jackson has a more comfortable day finding his Wide Receiver options. Diontae Johnson will certainy want to remind Pittsburgh of what was let go having arrived in Baltimore in a trade from the Carolina Panthers, but there are plenty of other weapons around him which will give Jackson an opportunity to have a decent passing day.

Being ahead of the chains should mean Lamar Jackson has time to move the pocket and then attack this Pittsburgh Secondary, which has allowed some solid passing numbers in recent outings.

Games between the Ravens and Steelers have tended to be very low-scoring and there has been fewer than 31 points combined in each of the last five games played.

However, there is a feeling that this one will be quite different with Baltimore likely going to be moving the ball with some consistency, but Pittsburgh also looking a lot more effective since Russell Wilson took over from Justin Fields at Quarter Back.

The difference between the two teams might be at the Line of Scrimmage with the Ravens Defensive Line continuing to clamp down on the run very effectively. This may make things very tough for Najee Harris, especially as Pittsburgh have not really been a team that has ripped off big runs consistently this season, and it may mean Russell Wilson is having to make more plays with his arm.

The Quarter Back is likely going to be faced with some pass rush pressure, but Wilson should also have some success against a Baltimore Secondary that continues to struggle against the pass. There is little doubt that this could be the weakness that eventually costs them a chance to win a Super Bowl, and even as Baltimore get healthier, it is an issue that will need to be addressed when the Bye Week comes around.

Russell Wilson has Receivers who can get open and make plays for him down the field, but being a little more unbalanced Offensively compared with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could prove to be the difference between the teams on the day.

These are always going to be tough, grind it out games, but the feeling is that we could see more successful passes than usual and both Quarter Backs may have decent stat lines. However, the edge has to be with Baltimore to snap the three game losing run in the Series with the Offensive Line likely to offer out more solid runs compared with the Pittsburgh O-Line and the Ravens can do enough to win this one by around a Touchdown.

It will need the Defensive unit to make a late stand to do that, but they have been able to find those plays at significant times through the course of the season and another on Sunday may lead to a big road win for Baltimore.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Interceptions piled up for Jared Goff last week in a primetime spot, but the Detroit Lions (8-1) rallied for their Quarter Back and made some big Defensive plays to turn things around at the Houston Texans. They continue their path through the AFC South with another non-Conference game in Week 11, and it feels like a big chance for Goff to bounce back.

Instead of a match up against Trevor Lawrence, the Detroit Lions will be facing a Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) team led by Mac Jones at Quarter Back. He was behind Center for the narrow loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week, but Jones will have to be a lot better in this game unless he wants to lean on the Defensive unit to make massive plays to keep the Jaguars competitive.

The Offensive stats made for poor reading, but the Jaguars Defensive unit stepped up and picked up a couple of key Interceptions in the End Zone against the Minnesota Vikings. They were able to keep that NFC North Offensive unit from scoring a Touchdown, but the game was in Jacksonville and it is going to be much tougher indoors against this Detroit team looking to make amends for what was an underwhelming performance in Houston.

Winning might be what matters most, but Head Coach Dan Campbell and Quarter Back Jared Goff have set certain levels of standard here.

In reality, it may not be a game in which the Lions need their Quarter Back to dominate with the Offensive Line paving the way for the two quality Running Backs to pick up big yardage on the ground. This is going to be an area where the Lions should be able to hand off the ball for some big gains and that should ensure the team is playing out of third and manageable for much of the game.

Of course Jared Goff will want to erase the memories of the performance on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, but having the team run the ball will open things up in the passing lane for the Quarter Back to have the successes he wants. He will be without Sam LaPorta for this game, but Detroit have other weapons and they should be capable of moving the ball up and down the field.

Covering the spread will come down to how well the Lions do Defensively and they will certainly believe they can feast on Mac Jones, who barely helped the Jaguars move the ball last week.

The Lions might not be as dominant as the Minnesota Vikings have been at times, but this is a team that is very good at slowing down the run and allowing a ball-hawking Secondary to take over and create turnovers. Tank Bigsby will be missing for the Jaguars, who have a struggling Offensive Line, and it might mean the road team have to really focus on trying to get Mac Jones going.

He can have some success throwing against a Secondary that has a bend, don't break kind of approach, but Mac Jones could have a banged up Receiving corps travelling to Detroit with him. It will make it that much tougher for the Quarter Back and the Lions might just be ready to make the plays that help them pull away for a big win at home.

The last time Detroit played at home, they crushed Tennessee from the AFC South and the feeling is that this big line will still not be enough to prevent the Lions produce a dominant win both outright and at the window.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: At one stage people were wondering whether the NFC North could potentially be the first Division to provide four Playoff teams, but those thoughts have disappeared over the last month. The top three are all looking like they are moving in the right direction, but the Chicago Bears (4-6) have lost three in a row and simply not recovered from the Hail Mary throw converted by the Washington Commanders, which will be replayed for years to come.

Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chicago Bears have yet to play a Divisional rival and you can understand why the team have decided that some changes need to be made.

The first NFC North team that the Bears will face on their schedule is the Green Bay Packers (6-3), who are coming into this one out of a Bye Week which should have given key players a chance to rest. The most notable to earn that rest should be Jordan Love with the Quarter Back looking a little limited in his movement and the Packers feel Love is going to be close to full health for the big run coming up.

Two weeks ago, Green Bay saw their four game winning run ended by the Detroit Lions, but they remain in contention in the NFC North and in the Wild Card Race too.

Josh Jacobs has come into the Packers lineup in place of Aaron Jones and he has looked like he has been a part of the Green Bay teams for several years. The Offensive Line continue to bully teams up front and Jacobs should be able to pick up right where he left off before the Bye Week when facing a Chicago Defensive Line struggling to stop the run.

This should be music to the ears of Jordan Love who can work his way into the game and try and hurt a Bears Secondary that has been having health issues. With the Receivers available to Jordan Love, playing from third and manageable could set Chicago up for some big plays down the field, which is something the Packers love to bring onto the field.

Green Bay have dominated this Divisional series and have won ten in a row against the Bears and it is hard to imagine that streak is broken at Soldier Field.

After losing last week and scoring just three points, Chicago have changed Offensive Co-Ordinator in a hope of sparking things for Caleb Williams. The Head Coach, Matt Eberflus has to be on the very hot seat at this point with the fans turning on him again, and it is going to be difficult for the Bears to find consistency on this side of the ball.

Caleb Williams has hit a rookie wall, but he is getting very little time in the pocket with the Offensive Line looking more like a turnstile, and it is going to be very difficult to play from behind. The Bears might have hoped they can at least run the ball to give the Packers something to think about, but Green Bay's Defensive Line have played pretty well going into the Bye Week and they will certainly want to dare Williams to beat them.

Throwing against this Green Bay Secondary is fraught with danger anyway, never mind when a Quarter Back is under immense heat from the pass rush every time he steps back to throw the ball. That is the situation for Caleb Williams, who looked lost in the defeat to New England in Week 10 and it is very difficult to imagine this changing too much.

In recent years the Packers have not only beaten the Chicago Bears, but dominated within games and this team coming in off a Bye Week have to believe they can do the same. Jordan Love will want to show he is healthy and ready to take the Green Bay Packers forward after the successful end to 2023, and the road team can win and cover here.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It has been an inconsistent first half of the season for many in the NFC West, but the important note is that all four teams are within touching distance of one another in a Divisional race that should go right down to the final week. Divisional games become that much more important with that in mind and the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) have dominated this series as they look to complete a sweep.

It has been a little over a month since the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) were beaten at home by the San Francisco 49ers, but they are facing them out of a Bye Week. Five losses in six games has seen the Seahawks slump below 0.500 and it is very important to turn things around considering Seattle are already 0-2 within the Division.

Having the Bye Week will have allowed Seattle to get some bodies back, but they have lost Connor Williams on the Offensive Line after he decided to retire unexpectedly. This is going to make things a bit more challenging considering the issues Seattle were having when trying to establish the run going into the Bye, while Williams being the Center will be a big loss for the passing game too.

Running the ball has been a problem for the Seahawks in recent games and they cannot expect to have a lot of success in this one against a tough San Francisco Defensive Line. That only places more pressure on the shoulders of Geno Smith at Quarter Back, who has not really had many clean pockets to operate from of late and now is going to have perhaps a couple of inexperienced players on the Line.

His numbers are still decent enough and DK Metcalf is a big threat, but Smith is going to have some challenges throwing against the 49ers Secondary if the pass rush is getting close to him. Add in the fact that the 49ers have picked up their level defending the pass and have players willing to take the risks to step in front of passes, and it could be a tough day for Geno Smith against a team that has beaten Seattle in six straight NFC West games.

The 49ers returned from their own Bye Week to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, but it was important to also have Christian McCaffrey back from an injury that has kept him out all season. It gives San Francisco another crease to their Offensive play-calling, and only poor kicking made that win over the Buccaneers much closer on the scoreboard than it actually should have been.

No one is expecting Christian McCaffrey to dominate from the off, but he is a threat as a catcher as much as a runner and that gives opponents pause for thought. There is every chance he can have a big impact on the ground against this Seattle Defensive Line, which will just open things up for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

Tyrel Dodson was the Seattle leading tackler before surprisingly being let go and that is not going to help the Seahawks either against the run or the pass.

Brock Purdy should have enough Receiving weapons to spread the ball around and dissect the Seattle Secondary, especially with the Offense likely to be in third and manageable spots. He should have time when he does step back to throw the ball, although Brock Purdy will just want to clean up some of the mistakes to make sure his team are in control of this game.

In the six game winning run, Seattle have not been able to get closer than 8 points to the San Francisco and it might be tougher to do a lot better than that. The 49ers have the balance Offensively that may just see them have too much for a Divisional rival that may struggle to run the ball and it could end up seeing San Francisco come through with a solid win and a cover of this mark.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 17th)

There was some uncertainty as to how the second Group match to be played on Thursday was going to develop after Novak Djokovic only edged to a win earlier in the day.

Jannik Sinner showed he is plenty professional by coming through another tough three setter to eliminate Holger Rune and he does have a day of rest between the Semi Final to recover.

While he is resting, Jannik Sinner will find out who that Semi Final opponent is on Friday with one more place still to confirmed and that could be decided as soon as the first match is played. A Carlos Alcaraz win would be enough, but Alexander Zverev is still hoping for a Daniil Medvedev favour, which would mean having an opportunity to earn his own spot in the Semi Final in the Evening Session.

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Two wins and both in straight sets has moved Daniil Medvedev through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday and so you have to wonder how much motivation he brings onto the court. The chance to beat Carlos Alcaraz and potentially knock him out of the tournament will offer some motivation, but Daniil Medvedev will not want to have to exert too much energy to do that knowing he has a Semi Final spot wrapped up.

It is not easy for a tennis player to come out and deliberately play poorly, but you would question how much Daniil Medvedev is going to want to run in this tough Group match. Even a straight sets defeat is not going to impact his place in the next Round, although there is the question mark about whether he wins the Group that is yet to be settled.

Ultimately he will know his potential Semi Final opponent with the other Group being completed on Thursday evening, but Daniil Medvedev has always indicated that he is a player that only concentrates on what is best for him.

The win over Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open should actually provide plenty of ammunition for the World Number 2 as he looks to reach the Semi Final for the first time at this event.

His comfortable win over Andrey Rublev means Carlos Alcaraz has some control about his own future at the tournament.

Winning in straight sets means Carlos Alcaraz wins the Group and Alexander Zverev is unable to Qualify, although any win for the Spaniard is going to be good enough to progress without having to worry about what happens later in the day.

The performance in the win over Andrey Rublev is encouraging and Carlos Alcaraz will feel that he deserved more when losing to Daniil Medvedev in New York City.

Prior to that, Alcaraz dominated two matches against Medvedev, including on the hard courts of Indian Wells, and the Spaniard may be willing to work that much harder than his opponent in this final Group match. Ultimately that can make the difference on the day and Carlos Alcaraz can certainly keep Daniil Medvedev on the back foot with his serving as long as he can reach the levels shown against Medvedev's compatriot.

Daniil Medvedev is a quality hard court player and loves the indoor conditions too.

However, the lean has to be with Carlos Alcaraz who has should showcase a lot more desire in this match compared with Daniil Medvedev. This should be a tight match, but those margins to determine the winner can be edged by Alcaraz, who has more to play for, and he can earn a priceless victory to move into the Semi Finals.

Andrey Rublev v Alexander Zverev: Straight sets losses can be very hard to overcome in the World Tour Finals Group Stage, but most would anticipate that two wins would be enough to take them through to the Semi Final.

This may not be the case in either Group this year so Alexander Zverev is likely going to have someone keeping an eye on the Day Session match in this Group. Any win for Carlos Alcaraz would mean the straight sets loss to Daniil Medvedev would have eliminated Zverev before taking to the court for his final match.

You could see in the body language of his defeat to Medvedev that Alexander Zverev knew the importance of losing in straight sets hours after Carlos Alcaraz had beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

That defeat has eliminated Andrey Rublev from reaching the Semi Final for a second season in a row as he prepares to play his final match of the season before turning attention to building and improving ahead of the January start for the 2024 Tour.

Andrey Rublev has shown frustration in his two losses and he has been well beaten by both Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz.

A run to the Final and reaching two other Semi Finals between the US Open and the World Tour Finals should have given Andrey Rublev plenty of belief, but he continues to struggle to impose himself on the other top players on the Tour.

However, Rublev has won all three matches played against Alexander Zverev this season having previously lost all five matches played on the Tour against the German. The last of those wins came last month in Vienna on an indoor hard court and there may be a good reason to back the underdog to upset Alexander Zverev in this last Group match.

In the two hard court matches played between Rublev and Zverev in 2023, the Russian has held 96% of his service games compared with the latter's 75% mark. Andrey Rublev did save all 6 Break Points played in that clash in Vienna, but those were only earned in two service games and Rublev actually created 10 Break Points of his own on that day.

He doesn't have anything to gain from this final match, but Andrey Rublev has performed like a player willing to give his all each time he comes onto the court. With the potential Alexander Zverev elimination already confirmed by the time the two come out on the court, Andrey Rublev can maintain his current positive run against the German and win this match as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-1, + 8.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals/ATP Finals (November 17th)

The WTA Finals is due to be completed on Wednesday and that will put down a period on the 2021 WTA Tour, while the ATP World Tour Finals will be two thirds of the way through the Group Stage.

There is still some Davis Cup tennis to be played, but most players will just be glad to have an opportunity to rest up and get ready for another long season on the Tour. Hopefully 2022 will prove to be a much more familiar looking calendar for the players and that should mean a more consistent year for the Tennis Picks which will likely resume at the Australian Open in January.

I am still focusing on trying to have a strong week and make sure this month ends with some good returns, but there is work to do towards that goal.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Both of these players have gotten off to winning starts at the ATP World Tour Finals in Turin and the winner of this one will virtually assure themselves of a place in the Semi Final. That is the minimum that Novak Djokovic will have expected of himself going into the tournament having won the Paris Masters, while Andrey Rublev has a big opportunity after upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opening match.

The expectation is that both of these players will work their way through and Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev produced some top tennis in their opening Group matches. That will be encouraging for their chances the deeper they go in the tournament, but it would be a mistake to look too far ahead.

Novak Djokovic made a slow start in his win over Casper Ruud, but he dominated after dropping serve early and it could have been a more comfortable day in the office if he had taken his chances in the first set. He did exert his quality on the return of serve in the second set though and the conditions didn't really bother the World Number 1 as much as it has seemingly had an effect on others at the World Tour Finals.

He should be challenged much more in this match by Andrey Rublev who has a very good serve and who will be plenty confident after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas. The poor end to the regular season may have contributed to the underdog status that Andrey Rublev had going into the match, but he has been a really strong hard court player and the serve can be followed by big groundstrokes that could see him put Novak Djokovic under pressure.

The difference between the players is likely going to be the significantly more confident return game that Novak Djokovic has compared with Andrey Rublev. As I have mentioned, the poor end to the regular season means Rublev may still be battling his own confidence even after the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and I think the World Number 1 can win this first meeting between these players.

Andrey Rublev does hold plenty of top ten wins on the hard courts in his career and I do think the Russian has the kind of game that can take the racquet out of the hand of his opponent. Doing that against Novak Djokovic is an altogether different kind of test and I do think the return game of the top Seed will put Andrey Rublev under pressure.

His serve was effective in the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev can be strong behind this shot as proven by his numbers over the last three seasons on this surface, but a first meeting with Novak Djokovic can be an eye-opening experience. The form has simply not been that good in the last few weeks and I think Novak Djokovic is playing with a real motivation which can help him win a second match at the Tour Finals and he can also cover this wide looking mark too.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Casper Ruud: An opening defeat at the Tour Finals is not fatal, but losing two matches in a row makes it very difficult to progress to the Semi Final. That means there will be some pressure on Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud when they take to the court on Wednesday evening, although both players have been bullish about their chances of having a real impact in the tournament.

It has not been the best end to the season for Stefanos Tsitsipas and that has to be a concern for his fans. Three losses in a row should not have dented the confidence too badly, but I do wonder if the long season has taken a toll on the Greek player who will have perhaps been expecting more from himself.

Winning Grand Slams is the kind of level that Stefanos Tsitsipas feels he should be operating at, but he came up a little short in that regard. He does look to be a much more competent hard court player these days though and it has been another season in which Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown an improvement on the returning side of his tennis on this surface.

We did not see anything like his best tennis in the opening match, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has to know that he is going up against Casper Ruud, a player that has struggled when he has played the top players of the Tour and especially on the hard courts. The youngster is improving and he showed some toughness to hang with Novak Djokovic through the first set in his opening Tour Finals match, but Casper Ruud couldn't maintain his level and was eventually seen off pretty comfortably.

Casper Ruud may be the fresher player, despite the really long season he has been involved in, and that may give him the chance of the upset, but he has to show he can compete with the top players. That is a mental hurdle for him to overcome on the hard courts and Casper Ruud's numbers in the opening match were not very encouraging even though he earned a tie-breaker in the opening set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas was largely outplayed by Andrey Rublev, but this feels like a match against an opponent who may be a level below the Russian.

In their sole previous hard court match, Stefanos Tsitsipas won pretty comfortably and it was a considerable edge behind the serve which proved to be the difference maker. I think that could be the case in this match too and I am looking for Stefanos Tsitsipas to bounce back and earn the win to give himself a chance of progressing to the Semi Final.

Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: In most weeks on the Tour you only play an opponent once in each tournament, but that is not the case at the Tour Finals to conclude the season.

This is the second time Garbine Muguruza and Anett Kontaveit are playing one another over the last four days, but this time the trophy is on the line. It was the Spaniard who won when they met in the Group and it was that win which has taken Garbine Muguruza through to the Knock Out Rounds of the WTA Finals and she has won three matches in a row.

In each of those wins, Garbine Muguruza has shown an improvement and she looks to be peaking at the right time to win the WTA Finals. One of those was earned against Anett Kontaveit and it was that victory that helped Muguruza out of the Group Stage, although by that point Kontaveit had won both matches and had guaranteed her passage through to the Semi Final.

Both players deservedly won their Semi Final matches, but Garbine Muguruza managed to do that in a much quicker time and without the drama that accompanied Anett Kontaveit's win over Maria Sakkari. Garbine Muguruza has had a few more hours to recover too and I do think she is one of the top momentum players on the WTA Tour and will be very difficult to stop now she has reached the Final with three straight wins behind her.

The win over Anett Kontaveit in the Group will have given Garbine Muguruza confidence and she has served really well in the last couple of matches. That is going to be very important for her again, but we did see Anett Kontaveit produce another strong performance out of her own serve in the win over Sakkari in the Semi Final.

Anett Kontaveit has been the more consistent player behind the serve in the tournament, but Garbine Muguruza has found a real rhythm on that shot. The key to the outcome of the Final will very much be which of the two players is able to keep themselves together mentally and be able to find the big serves when they matter the most.

I really don't think there is much between the players- Muguruza may hold a narrow mental edge, but Kontaveit is playing about as well as she has at any time in 2021. She did blow Garbine Muguruza away in Moscow, but the conditions here and the support of the crowd look to be favouring the Spaniard.

I will not be surprised if we need to see three sets to determine the winner and I do think the game being given to Garbine Muguruza may be a little more appealing than backing either to win outright. It could go very long in the form both are displaying, but I think Garbine Muguruza is in very strong form and continues to show positive improvement in each passing match here.

One more progressive step should be enough to secure the title and I will back Garbine Muguruza with a start on the Handicap.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Day 3 Picks 2020 (November 17th)

The ATP World Tour Finals is fully underway now with both Groups completing the first of the three Round Robin matches to be played to determine the Semi Final spots.

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev got the job done for the selections on Day 2 at the tournament as both came through relatively comfortably. They meet each other on Wednesday while Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Alexander Zverev will try and keep their tournaments alive.

Before that Group London 2020 has a couple of Singles matches ready to go on Tuesday with the two victorious players and the two losing players from Sunday meeting. The players who have been out on the courts have suggested conditions are pretty quick inside the O2 Arena and that seems to be the case from the numbers as we get set for a couple of good looking matches.

Dominic Thiem + 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Both of these players managed to put a win on the board to open their ATP World Tour Finals Group and the winner on Tuesday will feel they are well on their way to securing a Semi Final spot.

By the end of the evening the winning player between Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal might have confirmed their spot in the final four, but neither will be thinking too far ahead. The main ambition for both Thiem and Nadal has to be winning this match and putting themselves in a very strong position to Qualify for the Semi Final, while the losing player may still believe they have enough in the tank to work their way past this match.

That is all for another day and this looks like being a really good and competitive match.

Rafael Nadal looked in very good form on Sunday when he dismissed a red hot Andrey Rublev in straight sets and did not face a break point on the day. That is a good reason he can go into this second match as a significant favourite, but Dominic Thiem showed resolve in his three set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas despite dropping the second set on the day.

It was a much tighter win for Thiem who could have easily come out on the wrong side of that match, but it is the kind of win that will give the US Open Champion real confidence. Dominic Thiem has not always played his best tennis at this time of the year, but the shortened 2020 season should mean he is much fresher this time around and in recent matches against Rafael Nadal he has done more than simply push the former World Number 1.

In fact it is Dominic Thiem who has won two of the last three matches between these players and the surface at the O2 Arena in London is one that may actually favour the Austrian. He might not have the best record here, but Rafael Nadal has not been able to produce his best at this time of the season and the indoor hard courts are not really the kind of surface the Spaniard would want to spend a lot of time on.

Rafael Nadal was very good on Sunday in his straight sets win over Andrey Rublev, but I do think the younger player was perhaps a little nervous in his first appearance at the World Tour Finals. That is not something Nadal can rely on here and both of the previous two matches played on the hard courts between these players have been very, very competitive.

It is Dominic Thiem who has had the edge in the two matches on the hard courts with slightly better return numbers, but those have been awfully close and it won't take much to swing this match one way or the other. I do think the US Open Champion can get the better of the French Open Champion in this match and that is largely because Dominic Thiem has shown a little better form on the indoor hard courts compared with Rafael Nadal.

I do think the Spaniard is highly motivated to win the World Tour Finals for the first time and that makes him dangerous, but this is a match up that Dominic Thiem has not been overawed by the longer he has spent time in the top 10 of the World Rankings. At the Australian Open back in January it was Thiem who came through in four sets and the three sets he won were on tie-breakers which shows he can handle the pressure that playing Rafael Nadal brings.

It would be a surprise if Dominic Thiem is not able to win a set in this second Group match and I think that will be enough for him to cover with this start on the game handicap market.

Andrey Rublev v Stefanos Tsitsipas: The defending Champion was beaten in his first match and Stefanos Tsitsipas could be playing for his future in the tournament on Tuesday evening. The same is true for Andrey Rublev and this looks like it has the makings of a really good match between two players who will believe they have more to offer than what they have shown in their opening one on Sunday.

The player who will really believe there is more to offer has to be Andrey Rublev who was perhaps a little nervous in his straight sets defeat to Rafael Nadal. It was certainly not what was expected from a player who had produced a 12-1 record since the end of the French Open and I am looking for a reaction from him.

On the other side of the net Stefanos Tsitsipas will believe he had the chances to win his opening match against Dominic Thiem and he is now in a tough position.

This is a match up that hasn't really worked in the manner that Tsitsipas would have hoped in the past, although he did snap his run of three losses in succession against Andrey Rublev when beating him in straight sets at the French Open. I do feel that the clay courts are more favourable for Tsitsipas but he has lost both hard court matches against Rublev who prefers the faster surfaces.

Andrey Rublev has played really well on the clay courts recently, but the consistency has been stronger on the hard courts and I do think he has the tools to win this one as the slight underdog. While the serve is pretty effective, Andrey Rublev also has a serious edge when it comes to the return of serve compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface and I think that is very important in matches where there is likely going to be very little between the players.

The win at the French Open will give Stefanos Tsitsipas confidence that he can beat a player he respects and who had won their previous matches on the Tour. However I do think the Greek player was fresher for that match and this one on a hard court might actually favour the underdog who has held 89% of service games played against Tsitsipas on the surface compared with the 82% mark for the higher Ranked player.

It might go the distance again, but in this one I do like Andrey Rublev's chances of earning the slight upset.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals: 3-1, + 3.82 Units (8 Units Staked, + 47.75% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2019 (November 14-18)

We are getting down to the business end of the NFL regular season and the importance of each and every game played by teams around the country will increase in each passing week.

Spot situations should still arise, but we should be getting down to the moment when teams are not able to overlook opponents if they have a genuine ambition to be playing Football in January. Upsets are never that far away in the NFL, but teams suffering those are going to suffer the consequences when the six places in the two Conferences are handed out.

Only the New England Patriots can really feel secure with how they are playing, the schedule and their position within their own Division and I do think they are well on the way to earning a Bye into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs at the least. However most Divisions and the Wild Card Race look highly competitive as we get set for the final couple of weeks of Byes, the conclusion of which really brings the PlayOffs into sharp focus around the League.


Below are a few thoughts out of the NFL as we get set to begin Week 11.


Colin Kaepernick Returning to the NFL? Where else can I start but with the news that the NFL are holding a 'League wide workout' for Colin Kaepernick.

I've always said I've felt he has been good enough to be deserving of a spot on someone's roster but it had been clear for a while the NFL were not keen to have Kaepernick's brand of social justice on show. A large amount of NFL fans probably never even understood what his problem is, but Kaepernick was right to follow what he believed in and now his story could come around in a full arc if he is given the chance to join a NFL team.

I am still not sure what I am expecting- however I do know the NFL have had a number of starters go down this season and if you are seeing the likes of Brian Hoyer trot out in relief then there is room for Kaepernick to rejoin the League.

The Colts might been a good fit if Jacoby Brissett is out for any extended length of time, although I am not that is the case. It might even be a situation where Kaepernick is worked out and any team looking to bring him in waits until the 2020 season.

If I was guessing at a real potential landing spot, I wouldn't look much further than the Chicago Bears. Matt Nagy looks like he is finished with Mitchell Trubisky and I think Colin Kaepernick would be an upgrade for them, but at 4-5 are the Bears really believing they can still make the PlayOffs?

No matter what happens this weekend I think the NFL have finally done the right thing by making sure every team in the League knows Colin Kaepernick is not blacklisted from the game. Again I feel like there would have been a lot bigger chance of him landing somewhere if this had taken place in Week 7 rather than Week 11, but I'll be backing the former 49ers wherever he lands (barring the AFC East outside of the Dolphins).


Exciting End to the Season in Prospect: The New England Patriots look to be a team who will move clear in the AFC East in the weeks ahead, but every other Division is being tightly contested and even the Wild Card race looks like it could go down to the wire.

Only three of the eight Divisions have a team leading by two games at the top and even then the New Orleans Saints were beaten last week to keep the door open for the Carolina Panthers.

Five of the eight Divisions have the top two teams within a game of each other and the NFL decision to schedule Divisional games down the stretch looks to be one that will pay off massively in 2019. That is the same for the Wild Card positions with so much on the line in the games ahead and I can't wait to see how it all pans out.


Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson for MVP: I'll hold my hands up and admit I did not see Lamar Jackson playing to the level he has this season, although I was not as dismissive of his chances of playing Quarter Back as some when he was Drafted by the Baltimore Ravens.

For me he has to be the leading contender in the AFC to win the MVP regular season award and I would have Jackson winning it if the Ravens are able to win the AFC North and also secure a Bye into the Divisional Round. After losing so many key Defensive players and Jackson now being the full time starter from Week 1, the Ravens had been dismissed in the AFC North where the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns also competed.

Instead Jackson continues to make highlight reels on a weekly basis and looks to be Michel Vick 2.0, which is not any kind of disrespect to the Baltimore Quarter Back. Lamar Jackson can run the ball just as well as Vick, if not better, but he has looked a much better passer than the former Atlanta Falcon Quarter Back and I love what Jackson is producing.

His main rival has to be Russell Wilson who led the Seattle Seahawks to the upset of the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. It wasn't his best performance of the season, but Wilson showed the belief he has in his own game to recover from an Overtime Interception and lead the Seahawks down the field for the game winning Field Goal.

Wilson has been another player who has had serious weapons on both sides of the field depart, but he is raising the levels of all those left around him. I was massively high on Wilson when he came out of College to the point I wanted the Dolphins to Draft him outside of the First Round, but people read too much into the height.

His arm strength and ability to scramble to make plays is about as good as any Quarter Back in the NFL and the winning mentality has already produced one Super Bowl ring (he should have had two in all honesty). There is no doubt the Seahawks are overachieving because of this one player and I think it will give the next generation of Quarter Backs a huge boost to see real dual-threat Quarter Backs challenging for MVP awards.


You may as well give the Number 1 Draft Pick to Cincinnati: The Bungles, I mean Bengals, might have frustrated the entire rest of the League with their stubbornness in refusing to trade away big name players ahead of the trade deadline, but Week 10 could not have worked out much better for them.

No one wants to suffer a home blowout, but the Bengals were able to have a look at Quarter Back Ryan Finley and will be giving him the start the rest of the way.

It is important for them to do their due diligence on Finley because Week 10 saw the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets all win games. Why is that important? It means the Cincinnati Bengals are now clear favourites to earn the Number 1 Pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with only the Washington Redskins offering up any kind of threat.

I honestly don't think the Bengals will win a game this season as they struggle badly on both sides of the ball, and now they can start planning for which Quarter Back they want to take in the Draft while moving on from Andy Dalton. Joe Burrow has to be the favourite after his performance in beating Alabama with the LSU Tigers, but things can change between now and April.

One thing is almost certain- Cincinnati are on the clock.

My Top Five

1) New England Patriots- I know, I know, they were blown out the last time we saw them, but the New England Patriots have regularly suffered one major setback before rallying and going on to win yet another Super Bowl. All roads are likely to lead through Foxboro in January and that makes the Patriots the team to beat in the AFC.

2) Green Bay Packers- they are getting healthier and I think it is going to be difficult to knock them off in Lambeau Field if the Packers can earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. They have the edge now, although I do think this team still has room to improve.

3) Baltimore Ravens- I am been very impressed with Lamar Jackson as I have made it clear above. They destroyed the Patriots at home and didn't have a drop off when beating up on the hapless Bengals. If the Ravens go 5-2 in the next seven weeks I will be a real believer.

4) New Orleans Saints- they had to take a drop back considering the awful performance against the Atlanta Falcons. Getting into the PlayOffs shouldn't be a problem, but there will be plenty of eyes on the Saints to see how they respond to the worst performance they have had this season.

5) San Francisco 49ers- I don't want to punish them too much, but I am worried about the 49ers even though they have the joint best record in the NFL. Barring the two times I have faced Jimmy Garoppolo in Fantasy this season, the Quarter Back has not really been good enough to make up for any regression to the mean the Defensive unit may be experiencing.

I don't want to be too hard on Jimmy G when you think George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders were both missing for the majority of the loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but I need to see more out of the entire Offense if the 49ers are going to have a deep PlayOff run.

My Bottom Five

32) Cincinnati Bengals- easy choice.

31) Washington Redskins- this is a team who are going to be narrow favourites this week (and potentially one I am going to pick), but Washington's record is hard to ignore and now it sounds like Dwayne Haskins is going to be thrown in to learn on the job.

No surprise the bottom two teams are the ones who have stubborn General Managers that refused to make any trade deals ahead of the deadline. Poorly run teams with little prospect of improvement at the moment.

30) New York Giants- being beaten by their hapless neighbours and losing six in a row. Might as well shut down Saquon Barkley who has not looked at 100%, season is well and truly in the garbage can.

29) Miami Dolphins- you know how frustrating it is to Miami fans that their team can't even tank properly? I've never been a fan of 'Fitz Magic' but even less so after he has made this poor Dolphins team more competitive than they should be.

28) New York Jets- a win over the Giants will help some of the mood in this part of Gotham, but the Jets have a lot of work to do to get back into contention in the years ahead.

Week 11 Picks

I really don't know how we have already gotten into Week 11 of the NFL season, but that is what we have beginning on Thursday 14th November.

We are now two weeks out from Thanksgiving and that really marks the point when you feel the season is turning into the final stretch as the PlayOffs begin to loom large. For so many teams there is all to play for and I do think we are going to see some memorable games down the stretch as the PlayOff picture begins to clear up.

The last three weeks have been mixed for the NFL Picks and this has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season for me. I have yet to really get into the consistency that made 2018 a successful year for the NFL Picks, and it has been frustrating more often than not.

I am looking for much better over the last seven weeks of the regular season before we get into the PlayOffs and want some momentum to really take into those selections in January. Hopefully that begins with a much stronger Week 11 which begins with the Divisional game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The NFL looks to be highly competitive outside of the five or six really poor teams involved and that should mean a very close run battle for the Wild Card spots in both Conferences.

This game is being played on Thursday Night Football between two teams from the AFC North as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in what is the first of two games between these rivals that is played in the next three weeks. Both teams are trying to chase down the Baltimore Ravens who are a couple of games clear in the Division, although the Browns might privately already be accepting that their only chance to match expectations is going to be getting into the the Wild Card positions.

At the start of the season Cleveland were seen as a popular choice to win the AFC North, but a 3-6 record has put them in a difficult position. The way things are shaping up it is entirely possible at least one 9-7 team is going to be playing Football in January, but the pressure is on the Browns who have to go 6-1 in their final seven games to achieve that record.

They can't afford to slip up in this Divisional game, but neither can the in-form Pittsburgh Steelers who have won four in a row to move to 5-4 for the season. That leaves them two games behind the Ravens, but importantly Pittsburgh hold one of the Wild Card spots if the season was to end now and they are doing that all without Ben Roethlisberger.

Give credit where it is due though and it is the Steelers Defensive unit that have really come out to play and only Baltimore and Indianapolis have managed to score more than 17 points against Pittsburgh in the last six games they have played. The Ravens needed Overtime to see off the Steelers, but they did beat the Colts and so this team needs to be given a lot of respect for the way they are performing on that side of the ball.

Make no mistake about it, the Steelers will be heading to Cleveland to make a point by dominating against Baker Mayfield and the much hyped pre-season Offense. If Freddie Kitchens was anything like a better Head Coach than he is I might have faith that the Browns can put together a game plan that could be effective, but he might end up falling into one in this Week 11 encounter.

With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt available, you have to expect the Browns are going to use runs and screens to get things moving Offensively and I do think they can have some success doing that. The Cleveland Offensive Line has been happy when it comes to run blocking and as well as the Steelers have been playing, it has been possible to get the run going against them. The two Running Backs being used by Cleveland are special talents and I do think they can at least give Mayfield a chance at Quarter Back.

Running the ball is vital for Cleveland as they have struggled to protect Mayfield when he has dropped back to throw and they now face a Pittsburgh team whose pass rush has been causing havoc for opponents. There is no doubt that the likes of Bud Dupree and TJ Watt are going to be living in the backfield whenever Cleveland are in third and long situations and that has seen Sacks galore being produced as well as poor throws leading to Interceptions.

Baker Mayfield will have to be careful and the play-calling has to be better than what we have seen from a predictable Cleveland team. Odell Beckham Jr is a threat for them, but they can't force it into the Wide Receiver and have to be better all around if they are going to beat the Steelers this week, but getting Chubb and Hunt going will be all important for the home team.

The Pittsburgh Defensive unit have been mightily impressive, but it does have to be said that the last few weeks have been fun as they are playing at home for the most part. Going out on the road and producing is a much different challenge, but Mason Rudolph and the entire Offensive unit have to hope their team-mates show up.

If the game is going to be put on Rudolph and the Offense it is much harder to believe in Pittsburgh in Week 11. I have seen little to believe Rudolph is going to be the long-term successor to Ben Roethlisberger as he is largely being asked to manage games behind a strong rushing attack.

James Connor should be back for the Steelers in Week 11, but the Cleveland Browns have improved on this side of the ball as injuries have cleared up for them. The Pittsburgh Offensive Line have also just had one or two problems opening holes in recent games, although the addition of Connor will be a big help, and Cleveland have shown signs of stiffening on the Defensive Line.

For all the plaudits I think Pittsburgh deserve, it can't be lost on anyone that they have lost the yardage battle in four of their last five games. 73 of the last 94 points have also been added by that Defensive unit and I do think they could have troubles generating a lot of Offensive output in this game too. Failing to run the ball effectively and efficiently will mean the pressure is on Rudolph to make the plays with his arm and the improving Browns Secondary which is healthier than it has been for much of the season are going to be tough to beat out.

An improving pass rush should also be able to get to Rudolph if he is struggling to find the spaces down the field and it can set Cleveland up for an important win on Thursday Night Football.

It is going to be a close game and you can't ignore the erratic form and play-calling Cleveland have been employing all season. The Steelers have momentum and the kind of Defensive unit that will be looking to dominate as they have been and they can make plays to turn the game in their favour. I would not be surprised to see turnovers being the key for the Steelers again, but Cleveland should have the Running Back duo to keep them honest and move the chains without putting undue pressure on Baker Mayfield.

This is a rare spot in seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers as the underdog against the Cleveland Browns and it seems like the public are not buying that position with the money being on the road underdog. Mike Tomlin is a much better Head Coach than Freddie Kitchens and the Steelers are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog, but I think they need a few more things to break their way if they are going to win this game.

Turnovers are one thing, but the Defensive unit has been scoring points at a rate which is unsustainable and I think the Browns are otherwise a team that is fairly evenly matched with the 5-4 Steelers. Being at home should be key for Cleveland and I will back them to win and cover in this one.


Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Two teams who are currently leading their respective Divisions in the AFC meet in Week 11 and it could be a game which determines eventual PlayOff Seeding. The Baltimore Ravens crushed the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 to move to 7-2 for the season which would currently earn them the Number 2 Seed in the AFC, although they are only a game behind the New England Patriots having the tie-breaker over the Super Bowl Champions.

The Ravens are hosting the Houston Texans who at 6-3 are leading the AFC South and will move above Baltimore if they are able to win this game. The Texans have battled injuries, but they continue to lean on the brilliance of Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back.

Having Watson should mean the Houston Texans have a good idea on how to try and slow down Lamar Jackson who might be leading the way in terms of the MVP award for the regular season. An idea in theory is not the same as in practice and this is going to be a challenging day for the Houston Texans who have suffered through some big injuries on the Defensive unit.

In Week 11 the Bye Week will have given Houston a chance to at least bring back some key players in the Secondary, but the real battle for the Texans will be on the Defensive Line as they look to clamp down on Jackson and Mark Ingram when Baltimore look to run the ball. This is still a team that will look to run the ball first and then open things up for the passing game, and to completely stop Baltimore running the ball is next to impossible, but the Houston Texans might have a team that can at least limit what they are able to do.

Keeping tabs on Jackson when he gets outside the pocket is not going to be easy, but Houston should have one or two ideas how to prevent him from scrambling for some major gains throughout the game. However Lamar Jackson has surprised many by showing he is not a run first Quarter Back with some big time throws made to keep the chains moving and he will be confident in moving the ball for the Ravens.

There have been some big holes in the Houston Secondary which have been exploited by teams, but Jonathan Joseph could be back and Bradley Roby is closer to a return too which will give them a real boost. Picking up Vernon Hargreaves looks a solid move too, although he might not be in for a lot of plays on Sunday as he works on the new game plan that needs to be learned.

I do think Baltimore will have their successes, but Houston have to believe they can give their Offense every chance of getting into a position to win this game.

There are some similarities with the way Houston will approach things Offensively with what the Ravens are trying to do here. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson have been important for Houston and the Offensive Line has done a fine job in establishing the run, while Deshaun Watson can scramble for First Downs when the pocket collapses and I think the Texans will have success pounding the rock in this one.

Like Lamar Jackson, Baltimore's Defensive unit can't sell out in stopping the run because Watson has shown he is more than capable of making big plays with his arm. Having Will Fuller potentially back is a boost for a Houston team who will use him to stretch the field and the Watson connection with DeAndre Hopkins has proven to be a predictably strong one, but one that is very difficult to stop.

With the changes in the Defense made in the last couple of years, Baltimore are not a team who are generating heavy pressure with the pass rush and I think Watson will have time to make his plays down the field when he looks to do that. The Baltimore Secondary have allowed some decent passing numbers too and I think Deshaun Watson is going to have a strong showing and I am looking forward to what could be a shoot out between two players who will be in the MVP discussion at the end of the regular season.

I really like Houston having more than a Field Goal worth of points on the handicap in Week 11. They are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games coming out of a Bye Week and I think the Houston team matches up well with a Baltimore team who tend to be a touch overrated at home if their 1-3 record against the spread in front of their fans in 2019 will suggest.

Houston have also been a fantastic road underdog since Deshaun Watson has taken over at Quarter Back. They are 8-2 against the spread in that situation with Watson starting, while also won as the underdog 'road' team in London two weeks ago against the Jaguars.

This is a game that could easily go down to the wire and I am anticipating a close one, while I could not rule out Houston winning this one outright either. With that in mind I do like the road underdog here with the points.


Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions Pick: The head to head and the Divisional record is giving the Dallas Cowboys the edge over the Philadelphia Eagles for the lead in the NFC East, but being dropped to 5-4 after losing on Sunday Night Football in Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings was a blow. It feels more and more that the NFC East Division Champion will be playing in the post-season, but the Wild Card could be beyond these teams and so every game has taken on a new importance for teams.

After losing to the Vikings I don't think the Cowboys are good enough to be overlooking any opponent even with the big game against the New England Patriots on deck. That might not be easy for this team even though they are on the road in Week 11 and that is mainly down to the expected level of competition the Cowboys are facing.

A few weeks ago it looked like the Detroit Lions were going to be a potential contender in the loaded NFC, but they have lost five of their last six games which means slipping to the bottom of the NFC North. The PlayOffs look to be a pipe dream now and the Lions will feel they missed an opportunity last week at the Chicago Bears in a narrow defeat to their Divisional rival.

They were not helped with Matthew Stafford being on the sidelines and Jeff Driskel taking over at Quarter Back, but it looks to be more of the same for Detroit in Week 11. The backup has experience from his time with the Cincinnati Bengals, but to say it is a drop off from Stafford to Driskel is a massive understatement and it should be a situation that Dallas are able to take advantage of.

Kerryon Johnson's continued absence is not going to be good news for Detroit with a backup Quarter Back as they have struggled to find the consistency in running the ball. We did see Dallas struggle to stop the run against Minnesota and Dalvin Cook last week, but this Lions Offensive Line is not as strong and the pressure is going to be on Driskel to make plays with his arm.

He can't complain with the Receiving talent he has to work with, but Driskel is going to have to deal with a productive pass rush the Cowboys can generate. The Dallas Secondary might have had one or two question marks at the start of the season, but they have been elevated when coupled with the pressure produced up front and I think we will see a much better effort in Week 11 after the criticisms the Cowboys labelled at themselves on this side of the ball in Week 10.

The Defensive unit were rightly upset with their level last week, but the Offensive Line will also have something to prove after Ezekiel Elliot was bottled up by the Vikings. I do expect the Cowboys to have a stronger day running the ball this time around though and Elliot can get back to the kind of level we have become accustomed to see from him.

It is all important for Dallas to set up the run and open things up for Dak Prescott, although the Quarter Back was very good last week and almost led the team to the come from behind victory. Running the ball just cleans up the pocket for when Prescott is looking to throw as teams focus on Elliot, and I think he has a solid outing in this one against a Detroit Secondary which has had issues for much of the season.

This is all good practice for Dallas to deal with a Defensive unit which is run very much like the one that New England will operate next week. The Lions are just not as strong as the Patriots and I think Dallas can move the chains with some consistency and get into a position to win on the road as the favourite.

Dak Prescott has a solid 9-6 record against the spread as a starting Quarter Back favoured on the road and the Lions have been struggling at home. I will look for those trends to continue as Dallas cover a big line to regain some momentum which has been lost in recent weeks.


Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The 1972 Miami Dolphins could crack open the champagne at the end of Week 10 as the last unbeaten record in the 2019 NFL season was ended on Monday Night Football. The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to quickly bounce back from falling back to 8-1 as they are being chased by the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West who are just half a game behind as they go into their Bye Week.

The 49ers play the second of three consecutive home games and they have to be a touch worried that their fast start has not given them more breathing room at the top of their Division especially with the later schedule looking a lot tougher than what they had earlier. In the weeks ahead San Francisco will have to play Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks and all of those teams could easily be PlayOff bound at the end of the season.

In Week 11 the competition is not at that level as the 49ers prepare to host the Arizona Cardinals, a team who have lost three in a row. Only one of those losses have been uncompetitive though and the Cardinals already gave San Francisco plenty to think about when they met two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football.

David Johnson is still banged up, but Arizona have shown they can compete even when he has been on the sidelines. Bringing in Kenyan Drake has given the Cardinals another option at Running Back who can be effective in the NFL, and they should be able to get that side of their game established against the 49ers who have had issues stopping the run.

Kyler Murray gives Arizona the kind of mobile Quarter Back who can be successful in helping to implement some run-option plays to just loosen up a strong 49ers Defensive unit that have not been playing at the same high standards from earlier tin the season. This is all key for Arizona as they look to slow down the much vaunted pass rush that the 49ers are going to bring to the table and it will be important for Murray and the Offensive unit to be in third and manageable spots which they should have chances to convert.

Even throwing the ball will be successful for Arizona from those situations, but they can look to control the clock and at least give themselves a chance of remaining competitive by running the ball with success as I expect them to do.

That will at least force San Francisco to have to dig deep for the win as they needed to do when narrowly beating Arizona earlier this season. On that day Jimmy Garoppolo had his best game of the season with four Touchdown passes thrown, but he could be without George Kittle for a second week in a row, while the Offensive Line took a couple of injuries and Emmanuel Sanders was banged up after Monday Night Football.

Even with those banged up players Garoppolo should be able to bounce back from a sub-par performance in the defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. He can expect to be given a bit better support from the run game, despite Matt Breida likely missing this game, and that is the foundation from which the 49ers can have success.

There have been signs of improvement on the Arizona Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run, but that has affected the play of the Secondary and so it is hard to see if the Cardinals making a lot of stops. Where they can be effective is with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives especially with the San Francisco Offensive Line likely to be banged up at best and that can force some Field Goals rather than allowing Touchdowns which will be key to getting within this number.

The underdog has improved to 5-1 against the spread in the last six in this series while Arizona are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road. As well as the 49ers have played, this is not a team really built to blow others out and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five when hosting a team with a losing record on the road.

San Francisco are 0-4 against the spread when playing on the Sunday after a Monday Night Football appearance, while they are 0-5 against the spread in their next game after Monday Night Football overall. They should take the Cardinals seriously after the scare in Week 9, but the 49ers are hosting the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football next week which could provide a distraction which allows the Cardinals to keep this one competitive.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 9.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)


Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 37-39, - 11.52 Units (149 Units Staked, - 7.73% Yield)