ATP Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 11th November)

The ATP Finals will continue on Tuesday and we have two Singles matches scheduled from the same Group, which has not been the case in the opening two days at the event thanks to the last place being fought out as late as Saturday.

You do have to wonder if that effort made by Lorenzo Musetti to merely earn a spot in Turin has sapped him of any remaining energy at the end of a long season, but first the two winners in this Group will face one another with a victory likely going to mean progression into the Semi Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Both of these players produced wins in the opening Group matches at the ATP Finals having overcome some nervy moments. Being able to do so should mean both Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz are a little bit 'freer' as they meet in the second Group matches with the winner set to take their place in the Semi Final of the event.

Two wins is usually enough to progress, but that is not always the case and will be dependent on the other match to be played in the Evening Session.

It is no surprise that the organisers have set this one up for the Day Session and that is to ensure Italian Lorenzo Musetti is given the best chance to rest, recover and be prepared to play. With the last place at the Tour Finals only being confirmed on Saturday, the usual format of the event has not been in place in the Group Stage for those involved in this section and that means Taylor Fritz having to play on back to back days.

Tennis players are used to being in that position so it is not expected to be a big factor in this match and Taylor Fritz also has the confidence of having a win under his belt. Previous experiences at the Tour Finals have been very positive for the American and Fritz will feel his serve gives him a shot against any opponent he faces, even one that has had the better of the head to head like Carlos Alcaraz has had in this case.

Taylor Fritz did beat Carlos Alcaraz for the first time in Laver Cup action after the US Open, but it was back to the norm when they played in the Tokyo Final as the World Number 1 came through in straight sets to win yet another title.

While Carlos Alcaraz has not enjoyed the kind of successes you would expect at the ATP Finals, he is going to feel a lot better after battling through an opening win. The Spaniard is very, very comfortable on the hard courts and Carlos Alcaraz will be confident in the match up, even if Taylor Fritz is capable of frustrating him with the serve.

Whenever these two play one another, there is always going to be a lot of pressure on the Taylor Fritz serve knowing he becomes a bigger and bigger underdog within every point the longer the rally develops.

Carlos Alcaraz has had a big edge in the serving and returning numbers in the head to head and that has led to four wins in five matches played against one another. In three of the four wins, Alcaraz has had at least two more breaks of serve compared with Taylor Fritz and everything is pointing to the top Seed having the edge over the course of this latest match too.

There is room for improvement in the Carlos Alcaraz performance after the one produced to get the better of Alex De Minaur, but he has shown time and again that he has the game plan to make things very difficult for Taylor Fritz. The expectation is of more of the same and the likelihood is that Alcaraz will find two more breaks of serve than the World Number 6 and that should see him through to a cover in another winning effort.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: He has won the last three head to head matches against this opponent, including both played in 2025, and that may just give Lorenzo Musetti the belief to push on and win this Group match at the ATP Finals.

Another loss will likely mean elimination for whoever ends up on the wrong side of this match.

Lorenzo Musetti made it really clear how much he wanted to compete at the ATP Finals in Turin and that meant putting in a monumental effort in Athens when reaching the Final played on Saturday. He lost that to Novak Djokovic and needed the withdrawal to take his place at the ATP Finals, and you do have to wonder if there is much left in the tank.

It certainly did not look the case in a relatively straight-forward loss to Taylor Fritz on Monday- Lorenzo Musetti started off pretty well, but he looked more and more tired as the match went on and that was really evident in the service games.

A little more than twenty-four hours rest is not going to make a lot of difference and Musetti is going to need the Italian fans to get firmly behind him, as they did on Monday to their credit. Being an Evening Session match should mean the fans are more 'up' for this match, which can help too, but Lorenzo Musetti has played a lot of tennis since Friday and spent a lot of hours on the court.

All of that is going to be tested by Alex De Minaur who is one of the top defenders on the Tour and who will have last played on Sunday when coming up short against the World Number 1.

Losing both matches to Lorenzo Musetti in 2025 will perhaps be on the mind, but those were defeats on clay courts, while the previous loss in 2024 was on the grass courts. The sole hard court match was played in a very different atmosphere at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Alex De Minaur came through in four sets in an environment where he would have been heavily backed from the stands, the complete opposite to what awaits on Tuesday evening.

The most recent match between the pair in Madrid was dominated by Lorenzo Musetti, but Alex De Minaur will have regrets about the loss in Monte Carlo. In the first three matches between the pair, the Australian had dominated the number of Break Points created and De Minaur may be able to outlast Lorenzo Musetti in this match.

Alex De Minaur will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Carlos Alcaraz, but he can keep his opponent out there for long enough to slow him down. That will then really become evident on the return with De Minaur likely happy to sit in during rallies and just allow Lorenzo Musetti to be worn down and eventually this may lead to a solid enough victory to keep Alex De Minaur alive in the tournament.

The home fans will push Lorenzo Musetti to bring his best throughout, but the feeling is that he has left something in Athens after fighting so hard to merely make the ATP Finals in Turin and that will leave the World Number 9 short of the energy that is going to be needed in this match.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

ATP Finals: 4-0, + 3.22 Units (4 Units Staked, + 80.50% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 11th November)

The second Group at the ATP World Tour Finals is set to open up with a couple of matches on Monday, Day 2 of the tournament.

Jannik Sinner's opening win will have given the home fans plenty of reasons to smile, but it does feel like this Group is much more competitive all around. That could mean a battle-hardened opponent for Sinner in the Semi Final, assuming the World Number 1 will back up the victory over Alex De Minaur to move through this Group Stage of the tournament.

You have to believe the fans are very much hoping that the two top Ranked players in the world are able to work their way through to a meeting for the title next weekend, but the other six players competing in Turin will have something to say about that.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Casper Ruud: He was eligible to play at the ATP World Tour Finals in 2022, but had to withdraw with an injury, and Carlos Alcaraz was beaten in the Semi Final by Novak Djokovic twelve months ago. Winning the French Open and Wimbledon titles meant the Spaniard was always going to have enough Ranking points to return to Turin, although there had been some doubt about his participation after losing in the Quarter Final in Shanghai.

The Spaniard has arrived for the tournament and begins with a match against an out of form Casper Ruud, who missed the ATP World Tour Finals last year. Two years ago Casper Ruud surprisingly reached the Final of the end of year tournament, but matching that would perhaps be a bigger upset than it was in 2022.

This is mainly down the fact that Casper Ruud has played ten matches since being eliminated from the US Open and he has shockingly lost eight of those.

A solid, but unspectacular hard court player, Casper Ruud is going to have to find some strong rhythm very early, especially with this very tough opener in the Group. Losing would not mean elimination, but it would put Ruud under immediate pressure.

Avoiding an opening defeat will not be easy against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, who has produced some very strong hard court numbers even if he has failed to have the kind of impact hoped at the Australian Open and US Open. The Second Round loss in New York City was a real blow for the player who had won the previous two Grand Slam events played and also finished with the Silver Medal at the Paris Olympics.

The World Number 2 did win the title in Beijing since the US Open, but the early loss at the Paris Masters will have knocked some of the confidence.

Even then, Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous meetings with Casper Ruud and the last three have been on the hard courts. There has been a big advantage in favour of the Spaniard when it comes down to their performances in return games, and that has also been evident in the head to head on the hard courts where Carlos Alcaraz has held 85% of service games compared with Casper Ruud's 73% mark.

On current form, Casper Ruud will find it tough to turn that around and Carlos Alcaraz should be able to put together a relatively comfortable win.

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He has previously won the ATP World Tour Finals, although not in Turin, and that will give Alexander Zverev belief in his ability to pick up the title again later this week. The top two players in the World Rankings may have moved past Zverev, but he has shown he can more than compete when at his best and on either the hard courts or clay courts.

Neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Jannik Sinner had to be beaten when Alexander Zverev won the Paris Masters earlier this month. However, it is an important title and on indoor conditions that the Tour likes the World Tour Finals to try and match, which should give the German another boost in confidence.

He will learn plenty about himself in this Group with Carlos Alcaraz due to be met, but Alexander Zverev has to focus on beating Andrey Rublev, who may be the biggest threat to preventing him from earning a spot in the Semi Final.

It has been a mixed season for Andrey Rublev, although he still tends to play his best tennis on the hard courts.

However, the World Number 9 has lost three of his last four matches and there is a feeling that Andrey Rublev will benefit from having a few weeks away from the Tour in order to just reset. He has been a consistent top ten player, but breaking through into the top five regularly has been much more challenging and perhaps underline some of the problems Rublev has had when facing the elite players on the Tour.

2023 saw Andrey Rublev getting the better of Alexander Zverev on three different occasions, but their last match in 2023 ended in favour of the latter and that was also at the World Tour Finals. It was a day in which Zverev served much more effectively than Andrey Rublev and we could see something similar when they meet on Day 2 in opening Group matches.

Over the course of the season, Alexander Zverev has been slightly more effective behind serve, while the recent Andrey Rublev form may just mean he is lacking in confidence in his bid for the upset.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.65 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, - 0.30 Units (2 Units Staked, - 15% Yield)

College Football Week 11 Picks 2023 (November 9-11)

With a second week of the College Football Rankings released this week, the pressure is beginning to ramp up in November as the margin for error narrows all the time.

At the moment we look to have at least four unbeaten Conference Champions that could potentially fill the top four PlayOff places, but this can change very quickly. The feeling is that there will be at least one team that will make the post-season and play for the National Championship with a loss on the board, but I don't envy the Committee when it comes to making their final selections.

Next season will be different with twelve teams sent to the PlayOffs and that will likely produce a very good PlayOff format for the College Football fans to enjoy. You could make a case for up to eight teams to be good enough to win the National Championship this season too, and there will be an argument for those that miss out on the top four so maintaining momentum is going to be important for all chasing the ultimate prize as the regular season winds down before the Championship Games are set.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: There are some 'one loss' teams floating around with a genuine feeling that they can still do enough to impress the PlayOff Committee and have an opportunity to win the National Championship. Unfortunately for the Louisville Cardinals (8-1), they are playing in a weak Power 5 Conference and the defeat to the Pittsburgh Panthers will be difficult to shake off, even if the team are able to move forward and win the ACC Championship.

They are on course to finish behind the Florida State Seminoles in the Conference, but the Cardinals cannot think too far ahead. The game against the Miami Hurricanes is going to be important, but this week the Louisville Cardinals are hosting the Virginia Cavaliers (2-7) who have been more competitive in recent weeks than their overall record would suggest.

The Cavaliers are 1-4 within the Conference, but they have upset the North Carolina Tar Heels who were unbeaten before facing Virginia. They were then able to push the Hurricanes all the way in a narrow defeat before the blowout loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Virginia will arrive in this game knowing all of the pressure is on their hosts.

Scoring points against this Cardinals Defensive unit is going to be very difficult, especially as Louisville have picked up their level after the upset loss to Pittsburgh.

Since that defeat, Louisville have only given up 3 points combined in wins over the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Tech Hokies, while the Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread at home this season. Covering a line like this one is going to be tough, but the Cardinals have to believe that they have the strength on the Defensive side of the ball to do that by clamping down on what Virginia are able to do with the ball in their hands.

It all starts up front for the Cardinals who have a Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run and force teams to become extremely one-dimensional. Everything becomes more difficult when you think of the troubles Virginia have had in running the ball and the Offensive Line have also been one that have struggled to protect the Quarter Back.

Anthony Muskett has been lost to an injury to make things that much more troublesome for the Virginia Cavaliers and that means an inexperienced Quarter Back will have to play on a short week. In recent games, the Cardinals Secondary have stepped up their play with the control the Defensive Line have had up front, while back up Quarter Back Anthony Colandrea is going to have to be careful with the ball.

As impressive as the Cardinals have been Defensively, the Offensive unit have been a touch inconsistent and that is perhaps holding this team back. It's a funny statement when you think Louisville have won eight of nine games this season, but they have had some narrow wins in that time and covering this number will need the Offense to step up and put up plenty of points.

After seeing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets crush Virginia on the ground, the Louisville Cardinals are going to expect to pick up some big gains when running the ball. That is important to keep the team balanced on this side of the ball, and it will give Quarter Back Jack Plummer plenty of time in the pocket with the Cardinals expected to move the chains much more consistently than their opponent.

On the face of things, covering this mark would be tough, but the Cardinals are expected to make some big plays Defensively to create short fields. With Louisville likely to follow Georgia Tech with some huge plays on the ground, they have a chance to at least impress some members of the PlayOff Committee with a big road win to move into a position to play in the ACC Championship Game.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: Style points begin to take on some importance in November in College Football with the four team PlayOff in mind and that is likely to change when the post-season is expanded to twelve teams in 2024. For now it is a factor and the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) will be looking to impress having been given a Number 8 Ranking in the latest release from the PlayOff Committee.

In reality, Nick Saban is very experienced and he will know that the Crimson Tide will be hard to keep out of the top four if they are able to run the table and win the SEC Championship Game. That would likely mean holding wins over the likes of the LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs and a one loss SEC Champion can overcome the disappointing loss to the Texas Longhorns.

That defeat for the Crimson Tide will be all the stronger if the Longhorns can maintain their current path and win the Big 12 Championship, but Alabama are in control of their own destiny. Even then, people will be looking at them in Week 11 and wonder how they will perform after the strong win over the LSU Tigers and against a team that the Georgia Bulldogs beat by 38 points.

Head Coach Mark Stoops will point out that his Kentucky Wildcats (6-3) team were beaten in Athens by the Bulldogs, but they have also suffered home losses to the Missouri Tigers by 17 points and the Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points. Despite that, the Wildcats are 15-6 at home since 2021 and they did beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 10 to bounce back from the three game losing run that has dropped Kentucky to 3-3 in the SEC.

Ray Davis is going to be an important figure in this game for the Wildcats as they look to establish the run against the Alabama Defensive Line. This is key to making things a little easier for Devin Leary at Quarter Back, who should be healthy despite picking up an eye injury in the win over the Bulldogs.

The expectation is that the Wildcats can have put together some Offensive successes by on the ground and through the air, but staying out of obvious passing situations is key. It will mean the Alabama pass rush is just slowed down for long enough for Devin Leary to try and orchestrate an upset, while being in front of the chains should mean Leary can avoid the turnovers that could prove to be very costly.

Kentucky will need to move the ball Offensively as they are likely going to be facing an improved Alabama Offensive unit that has upped their level in each passing week. The Wildcats averaged over 20 points per game in their three game losing run to Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee, but getting to that mark may feel like enough points to be competitive against the Crimson Tide.

That will also mean the Defensive unit has made some plays, although this is a team that allowed those three teams mentioned to average over 40 points per game. The Wildcats are also facing a Quarter Back in Jalen Milroe who is playing at a level that Nick Saban demands of a player in that position after pulling him out of the loss to the Longhorns earlier this season.

Jalen Milroe is a threat to run the ball, but has gotten the respect of opponents with his arm too and that balance could be tough for the Wildcats to deal with. The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line have struggled this season, but they have looked much happier in run blocking and this is a team that has the potential to dominate the trenches and make things easier all around for their Offense.

The Crimson Tide are 9-3 against the spread as the road favourite since 2021, and they have covered in all three games in that situation this season. Alabama are also 5-1 against the spread in their six SEC games played this season, while Nick Saban's team are 55-36-2 against the spread in Conference games as a double digit favourite.

As much as the Kentucky Wildcats deserve respect, they have failed to cover as an underdog in both situations this season against Georgia and Tennessee. They have also struggled when facing Ranked opponents over the last couple of seasons and the Alabama Crimson Tide can keep the momentum behind them with another win by a couple of Touchdowns this weekend.

Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Off field issues continue to cloud over the Michigan Wolverines (9-0) and the allegations of 'sign stealing' have to be answered sooner than later. However, it looks increasingly unlikely that a decision will be made before the end of the season and the Wolverines are still set as the Number 3 Ranked team with their own destiny in their hands.

Much is going to come down to the big rivalry game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the end of the month, but it is important for the Wolverines to maintain an unbeaten run through to that game.

Next up is a difficult looking game against the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) who are still Ranked in the top ten having only suffered a narrow loss to the Buckeyes. Penn State were only 8 point losers on the road at the Buckeyes, but they were well beaten in the yardage battle and the Nittany Lions will have to find a way to move the ball if they are going to upset a very good looking Michigan team.

Being at home should help, although the Nittany Lions are just 5-4 against the spread as the home underdog with James Franklin as their Head Coach.

A big issue for the Penn State Nittany Lions is going to be trying to establish the run and make things a bit more comfortable for Drew Allar, who was restricted to 191 passing yards against the Ohio State Buckeyes and had a 18/42 completion rate that day. It was a tough day running the ball for the Nittany Lions against the Buckeyes and they are not expected to get a lot change out of the Michigan Defensive Line in Week 10.

That's not to say throwing the ball is going to be any easier and Drew Allar will be under pressure if the team is behind the chains. After scoring just 12 points in the loss to the Buckeyes, the Penn State Nittany Lions may have a few issues doing much better in this one against what many may feel is the best Defensive unit in the nation and certainly in the Big Ten.

What will give the Nittany Lions a chance of the upset is their own Defensive Line which has been a strength of the team and who largely clamped down on the Ohio State Buckeyes on the ground. Last season Penn State were bashed up on the ground by the Wolverines, but they are expected to have more success in this one and that will shift the pressure onto Michigan Quarter Back JJ McCarthy.

However, McCarthy is in the running for the Heisman Trophy and the Wolverines will have noted that Kyle McCord, the Buckeyes Quarter Back, was able to throw for 286 yards in the win over Penn State. JJ McCarthy has found a very good rhythm with his Receivers, while the Nittany Lions Secondary have had some holes exploited in recent games.

The Nittany Lions can disrupt things with their pass rush, but the feeling is that JJ McCarthy and the Michigan Wolverines will make the plays that ultimately leads to the road win.

Michigan have dominated the opponents this season- some will say because of the sign stealing allegations- but they are facing a Ranked team for the first time. Over the last couple of years, Michigan are 5-3 against the spread against those opponents, while they have beaten the Nittany Lions twice in a row including the blowout at home last season.

Playing on the road is a much different challenge, but the feeling is that the Wolverines can make enough Defensive plays to restrict the Penn State Nittany Lions and they can win this one by a similar margin as the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ UCF Knights Pick: The early upset loss to the South Alabama Jaguars is going to be next to impossible for the Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2) to overcome as far as the PlayOff Committee are concerned. They are Ranked at Number 22 this week and that despite the fact the Cowboys have improved to 5-1 in Big 12 play and having earned a fourth upset win in Conference play when beating the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 10.

That win will have really satisfied the entire fanbase considering the Sooners are going to be moving into the SEC at the end of this season and the long Bedlam Rivalry is going to be off the schedule for the foreseeable future. It is one that the players will have enjoyed, but Head Coach Mike Gundy is trying to 'move on' with the Cowboys still looking to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Wins over the Sooners, Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats means the Cowboys have the inside track to earning a spot in the Championship Game, but they cannot afford any slip ups. They are going to be favoured in each of the remaining three games, but two of those are going to be played on the road beginning with this one at the UCF Knights (4-5).

After moving into the Big 12 Conference, the UCF Knights have just struggled to lift their level until they beat fellow new members of the Conference last week against the Cincinnati Bearcats. You have to admit that the Knights have been involved in a couple of competitive losses in the Conference, but they are likely going to need at least one upset if they are going to reach the six win mark to become Bowl eligible having produced a 1-5 record in Big 12 play.

UCF will be feeling much better with a first Big 12 win on the board, and they will know that this Oklahoma State Cowboys team is far from perfect Defensively. In fact, the Knights look to match up really well with the Cowboys on this side of the ball having looked to the Offensive Line to break open big holes for RJ Harvey and the running game.

The Knights Offensive Line have done that effectively in recent games and Harvey has been afforded the opportunity to produce four straight 100 yard games on the ground. He will find some big spaces in this game too against a Cowboys Defensive Line that has allowed an average of 217 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and those have been earned at 5.4 yards per clip.

This has meant the Cowboys have been able to produce little pressure up front and teams have been able to throw the ball efficiently against them too. However, Oklahoma State have to be give some respect for the way the Secondary have been able to jump in front of some of the throws and force Interceptions, while the Cowboys have also been a team that have targeted the ball even when teams are moving the chains against them and Fumbles have been the outcome.

Turnovers will be key in a game like this one where both Offensive units will be confident that they can move the ball and the Cowboys are going to have considerable success too. Credit has to be given to the UCF Offensive Line for the way they have produced in the trenches, but the Defensive Line has not been nearly as effective at stopping the run and now have to face Ollie Gordon II who is averaging almost 166 yards per game on the ground on his own during this five game winning run put together by the Cowboys.

It is a running threat that is going to negate the UCF pass rush and it has also made things very comfortable for Quarter Back Alan Bowman who should have time in the pocket. He can exploit play-action to hit the Knights down the field and he has been careful with the ball, which is important considering the power the Cowboys have produced on the ground.

Both teams will rip off some big gains on the ground, but the Oklahoma State Cowboys have the momentum and the UCF Knights have just come up short more often than not in the Big 12.

The spread will be difficult to overcome, but you have to feel the Cowboys might be able to make one or two more plays Defensively compared with the UCF Knights and an extra possession or two should be enough. They are coming off a big, emotional win, but Oklahoma State have the Big 12 Championship Game to aim for and that should keep them focused, while they are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games as the road favourite.

UCF have not been a home underdog this season, but have lost to the Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers in front of their fans. They will feel the pressure is all on the road team, although the feeling is that the Knights may just come up short in a Conference game again.

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They remain in the current top four of the College Football Rankings, but the Florida State Seminoles (9-0) know there is still very little margin for error. They had to battle for their win over the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 10, although the Seminoles got within a First and Goal of securing another cover.

Getting into the College Football PlayOff in the four team format is still going to be a challenge for the Florida State Seminoles who will feel they are not going to be as appealing as a one loss Conference Champion. They are unbeaten, but that means there is pressure to win their remaining four games without losing a game and there are some potential threats yet to face.

First up is the Miami Hurricanes (6-3), one of two inter-State rivals that still have to face the Seminoles.

It has not been a great season for the Hurricanes, and one far below the expectation level around the team, but they have a chance to give their fans something to smile about by knocking off a rival. This won't make up for 2023, but it will give the Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal some breathing room as he perhaps thinks about making a Quarter Back change.

Tyler Van Dyke has been banged up and his Head Coach believes that has contributed to his poor form at Quarter Back with the Hurricanes losing half of their last four games. Emory Williams would get the call if Van Dyke is benched and this is going to be a tough match up for him, even if Williams had the keys to the Offensive unit when the Hurricanes beat the Clemson Tigers.

He was not tasked with winning that game, but managing it, and Emory Williams will likely be asked to do the same in this one if he is starting for the Hurricanes. The problem for Miami is that they are not likely to have much success running the ball against this Seminoles Defensive Line and Emory Williams will then be tasked with throwing into a Secondary that has kept opponents to under 200 passing yards on average this season.

The Seminoles have to be confident in their Defensive unit, but they will also feel this game comes at good time for the Offense.

Florida State may not be able to run the ball as they would hope, even with Jordan Travis at Quarter Back with his dual-threat ability. However, Travis is likely going to have two big Receivers back for this game after Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman sat out last week and they return at a time when facing a Miami Secondary that has picked up injuries.

This should give Florida State a real advantage in the passing game and it may be the difference in this important Conference game as the Seminoles show off their abilities to play in the PlayOffs. The Offensive Line has protected Jordan Travis so the Miami pass rush may not have the impact hoped and the Seminoles can put up a strong home win.

The Hurricanes have not had a good season and they are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games against top five Ranked opponents. They are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a double digit underdog, while the Florida State Seminoles are 3-1 against the spread in four games as the home favourite.

Last season the Florida State Seminoles embarrassed the Miami Hurricanes in a 42 point win on the road so there should be plenty of motivation in the Miami camp. However, they look short on both sides of the ball and the Seminoles can really produce a win with plenty of style points attached to it in Week 11 of the season.

MY PICKS: Louisville Cardinals - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Florida State Seminoles - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon State Beavers - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals (November 11th)

The opening matches at the WTA Finals have been played and there were definite signs of some early struggles with the conditions.

While the tennis was decent enough, which has to be expected from the top eight WTA players, there were moments when you could see the frustration of players as the ball flew off the strings. The conditioning is also going to be tested and so the long, long match between Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza is likely going to have a big impact on both players.

They do have a day of rest between the first and second Group matches, but both players admitted the physical effort that was required and in the final set tie-breaker you could see the impact of the altitude on the players.

The Picks from the WTA Finals got off to a good start, but there is plenty of time for things to change so the key is to remain focused. The ATP Finals will get underway on Sunday, but for now the sole selections come from Guadalajara.

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 games v Iga Swiatek: There have been plenty of 'complaints' from the top players of the WTA Tour as they continue to try and make the adjustments to the conditions in Guadalajara. The altitude is one that they simply will not face during the Tour and all eight Singles players have voiced their own concerns about how they are going to adapt.

However, adapt they will.

Ultimately the tournament is not going to be moved now and so all the players involved have to try and manage their emotions during this event. There will be frustrating moments with the difficulty to control the ball as they would normally do on the Tour, while players have admitted they are going to have to deal with making mistakes that wouldn't usually occur.

Being mentally strong through these moments is going to be key throughout the WTA Finals and I do think someone like Maria Sakkari has shown she can cope on that front. The Greek player came very close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title this season and she has shown considerable improvements, although the numbers continue to be a little underwhelming which leaves Maria Sakkari vulnerable to an upset.

This tournament may suit her with many feeling that Maria Sakkari is not amongst the favourites and I do think that will see her produce some of her better tennis. No one on the Tour really intimidates Maria Sakkari and she has admitted that making the WTA Finals was a big goal that has been achieved in 2021.

She opens up against Iga Swiatek who has had another hugely successful year on the Tour even if she has not added to the French Open title she won the previous year. Iga Swiatek has not played since the Indian Wells tournament in October, but she has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts and I do think her game might be suited to the conditions with the spin meaning she is capable of avoiding the mistakes that the more aggressive players will make.

It should give Iga Swiatek a chance to win this opening Group match, but there are a couple of factors that do have me leaning towards Maria Sakkari. Her hard court numbers may not be as strong as Iga Swiatek's overall, but the players have had vastly different experiences playing against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts with Sakkari holding a winning record in 2021 and Iga Swiatek at just 2-5 in the situation.

Add in the two wins that Maria Sakkari has secured against Iga Swiatek in 2021- one of those ended the latter's reign as French Open Champion, while another win came on the hard courts of Ostrava at the end of September. In both Maria Sakkari has deserved her wins with her serve proven to be effective and I do think a strong serving day will give her the chance of winning this match too.

Dealing with the conditions will be a challenge for both players, but I think Maria Sakkari can edge to the win in three sets in this opening Group match.

Paula Badosa + 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There is no doubting how good Aryna Sabalenka can be on her day, but the World Number 2 and the top Seed at the WTA Finals will only feel she has proved herself when she wins a Grand Slam. The Belarusian will feel she let a big opportunity slip through her hands at the US Open when being upset in the Semi Final by a player she had largely outplayed in the match, and there has been little tennis played by Aryna Sabalenka since that defeat in New York City.

Like many of the other seven players in the WTA Finals, Aryna Sabalenka has arrived a few days early to Guadalajara in a bid to become accustomed to the conditions at the tournament. And like many others, Aryna Sabalenka has admitted that she has had to change the tension of her racquet strings and has been looking to get as much practice as possible to try and be ready to compete at the tournament.

She is likely going to enter all four Grand Slams amongst the favourites to win in 2022, but Sabalenka will be looking to win the biggest tournament of her career to lay the foundation for further successes. It may mean Aryna Sabalenka perhaps finding another way to win matches when she is not at her best and when errors begin to flow from her side of the court, but in the main the World Number 2 wants to come out and hit through her opponent.

It won't be easy to do that at the WTA Finals where errors could come thick and fast in the conditions the players are dealing with. Even then, Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to win this match and she has the kind of power game that can be very difficult for opponents to deal with.

First up for Aryna Sabalenka is Paula Badosa who has enjoyed a very strong second half of the season on the hard courts. The Spaniard is at her career best World Ranking as she continues to show off her development on the Tour and Paula Badosa will be confident going into the tournament after winning a big title at Indian Wells in October.

Paula Badosa beat four top 20 Ranked players on her way to the title at Indian Wells and she has produced some solid hard court numbers since the Olympic Games. During that time she also holds a three set victory over Aryna Sabalenka so I expect the Spaniard to be confident in her ability to secure an opening success in her first ever WTA Finals match.

The key for Paula Badosa is making sure she serves well to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka at bay and it was that side of her game that enabled her to beat this opponent on the relatively quick courts of Cincinnati. Conditions here are different, but I think Paula Badosa is capable of frustrating Aryna Sabalenka into some big errors in the altitude of the WTA Finals.

In their one previous match, Paula Badosa did produce the slightly stronger returning and I do think she is capable of winning at least one set, which should mean this could be a close match. She certainly can make hay with the handicap start and I will look for Paula Badosa to play the cleaner match of the two players and keep this one close at the least.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Paula Badosa + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 85.50% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks (November 10-11)

The final Singles tournament of the 2019 Tennis season begins at the O2 Arena in London for the penultimate time before a move to Turin in 2021.

The ATP World Tour Finals is played a couple of weeks after the WTA Finals concluded that side of the Tour and I do think the placement of this event should be considered being changed in future years. After a long season we see many withdrawals from tournaments following the US Open and that has happened on a regular basis in the Finals too as players don't want to suffer a long-term injury that may see the start of the 2020 season affected.

Opening a season with the best eight players from the previous year looks a great way to improve things, although I also know the Tennis calendar is plenty packed as it is and moving things around would not be easy. I also expect most players would say they would rather play the event at the end of the indoor part of the schedule rather than a couple of weeks before the Australian Open takes place, but it does seem unfortunate that these Finals are not as strong as they perhaps should be.


In saying that I still expect to see a very good event being played in London this week as the battle for the World Number 1 spot in the end of year Rankings goes down to the wire. Unfortunately it sounds like Rafael Nadal is not anywhere near where he wants to be health wise and I am not sure he is going to be able to last the entire event.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are the leading contenders and look to be in the perfect Group to at least make the Semi Finals. Daniil Medvedev was playing the best tennis at the end of the season and looks the big threat, while Alexander Zverev is the defending Champion having beaten Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in back to back matches twelve months ago.


It will hopefully be a good event as I also say goodbye to another very strong Tennis season for the Picks which have produced a very positive return. I haven't had a lot of selections following the US Open as I wanted to get reset for the 2020 season, but I should have Picks from most days at this tournament this week.

The first two days will be under the same thread with the first four Group games taking place within that time, but it will hen be a daily thread through the remainder of the tournament.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: Any season in which you win a Grand Slam title has to be seen as a positive one and Novak Djokovic has to be happy with the two he won in Melbourne and London. However his rival for the end of year Number 1 World Ranking also won two Grand Slam titles and Novak Djokovic is going to have to hope Rafael Nadal is not able to get out of the Group Stage to have a realistic chance of overtaking him and earning that distinction for the sixth time in his career.

The title win in Paris earlier this month has put Djokovic in a strong position both in terms of points and with the momentum he earned. The courts in Paris tend to be very similar to the ones we are going to see in this part of London so the form Djokovic displayed will be very encouraging to his supporters.

Novak Djokovic has also won the title in Tokyo since his surprise exit in the Fourth Round of the US Open and while his season numbers on the hard courts have been very, very impressive, the performances since the US Open have been stunning. The serve has been working particularly well for Djokovic who will always believe he has the return game to hurt any opponent he plays.

That is going to be tested by debutant Matteo Berrettini who has been improving steadily over the last eighteen months and fully deserves his place in London this week. The Italian reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and then the Semi Final at the US Open to boost his profile and his game is very much based around a monstrous serve that has seen Berrettini hold almost 89% of service games played in 2019.

His hard court numbers have been impressive for the most part and shows an ability to play on all surfaces, although the big question mark around Berrettini is whether he can return well enough to take the next step in his development. He has broken in 17% of return games on the hard courts in 2019, but I think Matteo Berrettini will be well aware that number needs to hit the 20% range to really start becoming a threat to win a major title.

Matteo Berrettini has had a couple of solid runs in Shanghai and Vienna since the conclusion of the US Open, but he has also lost some surprising matches too. The early defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris means he hasn't really had a lot of experience playing on this surface and certainly not to the level that Djokovic will have had.

I do have to respect the fact that Berrettini has the kind of serve that can make it very difficult to earn the breaks that Novak Djokovic will need to cover this mark. However I also think he will find it difficult to retrieve breaks and Djokovic was returning well enough in Paris to believe he can put his younger opponent into pressurised situations.

A lot is also going to be about how Berrettini deals with a new experience- he struggled at Wimbledon when reaching the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam for the first time and that may be the case here too. The much better all around performances in the latter stages of the US Open shows this is a player with a tough mentality, although I think Novak Djokovic is a man on a mission this week and can use the superior returning to eventually find the breaks to pull clear of Matteo Berrettini in this opening Tour Finals match.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: He has become a familiar face in the ATP World Tour Finals, but there has long been a question mark about Dominic Thiem's schedule which means he has struggled when reaching the end of the season. Winning the title in Vienna might have changed the narrative somewhat, although the early defeat in the Paris Masters will have been a blow for the Austrian.

He has been placed in a tough Group alongside two of the favourites and Thiem will know he has to make a fast start. For a long time Thiem has looked like a player capable of performing on the hard courts, but inconsistent results means his level remains just above average on the surface.

Dominic Thiem did win the Master tournament at Indian Wells and he has beaten Roger Federer twice already this season including in that Masters Final which will give him confidence, but beating Federer here in London is a big test.

Roger Federer has perhaps not had the season he would have liked and especially not after coming so close to winning Wimbledon and having to settle for a Runner Up spot. However his love for the game has not lessened at all and Federer should be fresh after deciding to skip the Paris Masters following a title win at home in Basel.

Over the course of the year Federer has continued to show he is a very effective hard court player and the slight improvement when it comes to the return numbers has been important for him. It has led to a reversal of the sliding trend when it came to percentage of return games in which he found a break and that should be important in this match for Federer despite the two losses to Thiem in 2019.

It can be difficult to break down the Dominic Thiem game if the Austrian is at his very best, but he has been holding 85% of service games on the hard courts compared with Roger Federer's 91% number. I do think Federer is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one too, as Federer did when losing the Indian Wells Final to Thiem.

Twelve months ago Federer dominated this match in the Group Stage here in London- while I am not sure it will be as easy as it was that day, I do think Federer can find the breaks of serve he needs to just edge over this line. As I've said all season, it is a line that is just low enough for me to be interested as I still believe backing Federer on the 4.5 line in these best of three set matches is very risky in a lot of situations.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: After yet another fairly exit at a major tournament, Stefanos Tsitsipas suggested the younger players on the Tour are struggling to match the intensity of the big three of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.

One player stepped to the fore and refused to let reputations bother him and Daniil Medvedev is playing about as well as anyone in the men's game going into his maiden ATP World Tour Finals. I have no doubt that this is the first of many appearances Medvedev will have in the end of season event and the US Open Finalist has recovered from that disappointment to win two titles since then.

The early exit at the Paris Masters won't really be a major concern for Medvedev who might have to be the favourite to get out of this Group. The opening match against Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be an intriguing watch because to say these two players don't see eye to eye is a huge understatement.

You wouldn't really call it a rivalry when you think Medvedev has won all five previous matches played on the pro Tour. However everyone of those matches has been highly competitive and I do think it is entirely possible that is the direction this match is heading in on Monday afternoon.

I can understand why Daniil Medvedev is favoured to win when you consider the record against his opponent, but the stats have very much backed that up. He is a far superior returner than Tsitsipas and has the powerful serve to back up and consolidate those breaks of serve too.

When you put these players together you can see that Medvedev has been slightly more productive when it comes to protecting his serve, but the big edge on the return has to be the key to the outcome of this one. When they met in Shanghai last month it was the slightly better returning which proved to be the difference on the day, although it was the first time in five matches that Tsitsipas earned more break points than Medvedev.

However it was Medvedev who did win more return points and he has been in better form since the end of the US Open than his Greek opponent.

Out of the two players I do think Tsitsipas will be more appealing to the crowd with the greater shot-making and the mercurial way he approaches his tennis. Daniil Medvedev is more down the Novak Djokovic route of being very strong all around, but perhaps a little robotic in the way he plays which is not something which warms up the crowd.

I don't think Medvedev cares one bit about the way the crowd may react judging by the way he was trolling the US Open crowd after wins in New York. It propelled him to the Final in that tournament and I think the superior play of Daniil Medvedev will ultimately show up on the day.


Alexander Zverev + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: There were one or two doubts about whether Rafael Nadal was going to take part in London at the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think the ambition of finishing World Number 1 has been motivation for the Spaniard. An injury in Paris meant Nadal was not able to take to the court for his scheduled Semi Final in the one tournament he has played since winning the US Open, and that makes his participation in London a touch surprising.

At this stage of the season Nadal has decided he can invest all he wants to with a two month break between the end of the season and the Australian Open beginning. I am not entirely convinced he is close to being fully fit though and Alexander Zverev has to look to take advantage.

This has been a difficult season for Zverev who won the ATP World Tour Finals twelve months ago but has not kicked on in any kind of way that was anticipated. Being back in London at the O2 Arena should give Zverev a boost, but he has continued to play below the kind of level we would have thought he would be operating at.

The German has played pretty well since the end of the US Open, but I do think the confidence is not in a great position. Even then I have to believe that Zverev knows there is a big opportunity in front of him despite losing all five previous matches against Rafael Nadal.

If Rafael Nadal was at 100% I think he would be a strong favourite to win this match considering how well he has played on the hard courts. His serve has been a big weapon for him, but that injury and his poor performances in London in this ATP World Tour Finals in previous years has to be a concern for those backing him in this opening match.

He has been considerably stronger than Zverev in the previous five matches between these players, but Nadal might have to play to the moments in this one rather than every point as hard as he would like. That could give Zverev a chance to rattle through some service games and I would not be massively surprised if the underdog is in a position to win this match outright.

However instead of that, I do think taking the games with the underdog is worth a play in this Monday evening match. My feeling is that Nadal might end up winning when all is said and done, but I think Zverev can take a set and he can push his higher Ranked opponent on a court where the youngster has beaten Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer before.

The two previous hard court matches between these opponents have been competitive, and I will look for the underdog to use the games to keep this one close too.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 97.43 Units (1619 Units Staked, + 6.02% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks (November 11th)

The absence of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro does have a negative impact on the ATP World Tour Finals, but the eight players who are competing in London won't be worrying too much about events out of their control.

Both Nadal and Del Potro are expected to be back for the start of the 2019 season in around seven weeks time, although I won't be surprised if both don't return until the Australian Open which is set to begin in two months time.


For now the concentration of the players is to try and put an exclamation mark on the 2018 season and try and take some momentum into the 2019 season.

It didn't really work for Jack Sock and Grigor Dimtirov twelve months ago, but the overall quality of the field looks much better this time around and I expect a more notable winner.

Personally I can't look past Novak Djokovic even though he was beaten in the Final of the Paris Masters last Sunday, but Roger Federer will be hoping to have something to say about that.

Debuts for Kevin Anderson and John Isner will be enjoyed by those players and their teams as a reward for career best years, while Marin Cilic will be looking to round into some form before the Davis Cup Final is played in a couple of weeks time as Croatia take on France.


Day 1 at the ATP World Tour Finals will see Roger Federer headlining and the Picks from the two matches can be read below.

I will update the season numbers in the Tuesday thread.


Dominic Thiem v Kevin Anderson: The first match at the O2 Arena in the World Tour Finals has seen the layers set Kevin Anderson and Dominic Thiem as a pick 'em contest.

You can perhaps see why that is the case with Kevin Anderson comfortable indoors and having the booming serve which can be very difficult to break. He has won the title in Vienna and Anderson has been a player who has produced some of his best tennis in the bigger tournaments throughout the year which makes the big South African a very dangerous customer in the conditions that we are likely to see at the O2 Arena.

His opponent has much more experience of playing at the ATP World Tour Finals and Dominic Thiem had shown some decent form in the last few weeks of the season. It does feel like Thiem is in better fitness shape than he usually is when it comes to the final weeks of the season and he has picked up his play on the hard courts which suggests he could be a threat to progress.

In all honesty both players have to feel anything less than a win will not be good enough for them if they want to make the Semi Final. That makes the match a little more intense than it may otherwise have been and increases the pressure on both players to perform.

It would have been much tougher for Thiem if he had not managed to snap his losing run to Anderson and beat him twice this season. That gives him the mental edge in a match where Thiem is going to have to be concentrated throughout and I do think he can win this match.

Much will depend on how well Thiem can serve- he is playing an opponent who has struggled with his return and the Austrian has a decent hold percentage which should mean he is able to hold onto serve and keep the pressure on Anderson. In any potential tie-breaker you would say Thiem's superior returning should come to the fore and backing him as the underdog is appealing enough in this opening match.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The second Singles match on the day sees Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori meet yet again having faced each other twice in the last month.

Both times Roger Federer has managed to get the better of Kei Nishikori and I would expect the Swiss star to do that again in this opening Group match.

I've backed Federer both times in those recent wins, although it should be noted that he is being asked to cover a number of one game higher than has been the case in the last couple of matches these two have played against each other. Much of that may be down to the fact that Federer has looked the stronger player and he was a dominant winner when they met in the Paris Masters at the end of October.

The Federer serve is a big weapon for him and it is a key difference between these two with the Nishikori serve much more vulnerable. Nothing has really changed to think that won't be the case when the play in London, although their previous match at the ATP World Tour Finals was a much tighter three set battle.

The conditions at the O2 Arena have seemingly produce a lot more three setters than not, but Federer should be content with this match up and it will be tough for Nishikori to turn the trend against him. The top players all know they will have chances against Nishikori because of the obvious weakness he has with his serve.

Nishikori could have better success against the other two players in the Group, but this looks a tough match for him and I will back Federer to come through with a fairly routine win.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (November 10-11)

The next international break begins at the end of this weekend but there are some big Premier League games to be played both at the top and bottom of the table.

Games are split between Saturday and Sunday this week with five of the ten games set to be televised. After this we will see the final games in the UEFA Nations League over the next two weeks before the Premier League resumes and gets set for an extremely busy six weeks where eight rounds of Premier League fixtures will be played not to mention the League Cup Quarter Finals and Match Day 6 of the Champions League and Europa League competitions.

During the international break I will have another short piece about Manchester United after a really good run of results, although the mood around the club could change depending on how the Manchester derby goes on Sunday.


Cardiff City v Brighton Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend is going to be played in front of the television cameras in the early Saturday afternoon slot and it follows on from Monday Night Football in seeing a relegation candidate hosting an important game.

Huddersfield Town were able to beat fellow relegation threatened Fulham on Monday Night Football and Cardiff City have to be targeting a win in this one against a Brighton team who have not travelled well at this level over the last fifteen months.

It is hard to really believe in Cardiff City who have lost 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions and have continued to concede far too many goals in the Premier League. They did 'only' concede once in the home defeat to Leicester City last weekend, but the previous 5 home games had seen Cardiff City concede at least twice in each.

Only in the game against the defensively challenged Fulham did Cardiff City manage to earn a win, but they will still believe in their ability to win games at the Cardiff City Stadium where they have scored 8 of their 9 League goals. Neil Warnock will know Cardiff City need to be better at both ends of the field, but they are playing a Brighton team who can struggle as much as Fulham when it comes to defensive performances.

That could sound like a weird statement considering they had recorded 3 clean sheets in a row prior to the 3-1 loss at Everton last weekend. However Brighton have conceded at least twice in 4 of their 6 away Premier League games and this is a team who will offer opponents chances.

Cardiff City have created chances at home but perhaps don't have the consistent and reliable goalscorer Warnock will be looking to bring in in January. I expect they will create more opportunities here, and I also like Brighton's chances of causing a few chances of their own.

At a big price I am going to look for the attackers to just show a little more composure against defensively weak teams and I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.

Fantasy Star: Victor Camarasa- goals have been a problem for Cardiff City all season, but Victor Camarasa could be the key for them to unlock Brighton having hit the bar against Leicester City last weekend.

Alternative: Glenn Murray- he is Brighton's main goal-scoring threat and should have at least one or two chances to add to his six League goals scored this season.


Huddersfield Town v West Ham United Pick: It was absolutely imperative for Huddersfield Town to return to winning way sooner rather than later and the win over Fulham will be a huge boost for the entire club ahead of the next international break. Backing it up with another home win before the upcoming two week break will really put Huddersfield Town in a positive frame of mind, although much depends on which West Ham United team turn up.

As hard as Huddersfield Town work and the heart and determination the players have, you do have to wonder if there is enough quality here to survive in the Premier League. However opponents can't take a win over Huddersfield Town for granted and they have to make sure they match the intensity of the home team and that is where I can find it difficult to trust West Ham United.

You have to say this is a club that has been up and down for a number of years now and West Ham United really are a team that can be so strong against the big clubs one week and then be upset as a favourite in the next.

The 4-2 win over Burnley last weekend was a very important result for West Ham United to snap a 4 game run without a win. They have not been as strong in terms of results away from home, but West Ham United have been creating chances in their last 3 away Premier League games and arguably deserve more than the 4 points they have earned in those games.

Mark Noble's sending off at Leicester City changed the pattern of that game, while West Ham United should have at least earned a draw at Brighton with the chances they created.

If they can do that here at the John Smith's Stadium, West Ham United can return the three points as the favourite here. They did the League double over Huddersfield Town last season and West Ham United look a team who can score goals both at home and away which could be tough for the home team to match in this fixture.

Huddersfield Town should have plenty of confidence coming into this one off a win over Fulham, but West Ham United should also be feeling pretty good about themselves. If The Hammers play as well as they did at Brighton and Leicester City before the Noble sending off I would think the visitors from East London can edge out Huddersfield Town.

However I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw. That accounts for the inconsistency that West Ham United display regularly, but I do think they have enough goals to win a fixture like this one and make sure they are moving in a positive direction going into the international break.

Fantasy Star: Marko Arnautovic- in any game you fancy West Ham United to well you have to think the Austrian is going to be the main threat for them.

Alternative: Declan Rice- he is set as a defender in the official game but plays further up the field and so can be a threat to score as well as keeping a clean sheet.


Leicester City v Burnley Pick: Playing Premier League Football is a real privilege for players but they will not be used to coping with the kind of emotions that Leicester City have had to in the aftermath of Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha's passing in the helicopter crash of two weeks ago.

Some of the emotion may have been expressed in the 0-1 win at Cardiff City last weekend, but it is a different story when Leicester City return to the King Power Stadium for the first time since the 1-1 draw with West Ham United.

This is a chance for the fans to express themselves and it could make it a difficult atmosphere for the players who will want to honour their owner in the best possible way. Leicester City coped with the pressures magnificently last weekend, but being back in the Stadium where the helicopter crash was just yards away is a whole different story.

The Foxes could be helped by their opponent Burnley who have been in pretty miserable form. Aside from the 4-0 win over Bournemouth, Burnley have not really impressed this season and they have been giving up some great chances to opponents even in games where they have avoided defeat.

In their last three Premier League games teams have not been as wasteful against Burnley and that has seen Manchester City, Chelsea and West Ham United all beat Burnley comfortably. All of those teams scored at least four goals and all won by at least a two goal margin with the defeat to West Ham United being of particular concern.

Burnley could be missing some key players in defensive areas for this one too which will make it that much more difficult to produce a better effort at that end of the field.

Leicester City should be able to expose those defensive shortcomings and I think they can produce a big performance at home in a game where the owner won't be far from the minds of the fans or the players. An impressive attacking display will be the best way for Leicester City to honour those that passed away two weeks ago and I will back The Foxes to win this game by a couple of goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- on a day when there will be plenty of emotion in the Stadium, Leicester City will want to impress and Jamie Vardy should earn a few chances against this Burnley defence.

Alternative: Demarai Gray- the home team should create chances and Demarai Gray scored last week and could be the main attacking threat outside of Vardy with James Maddison injured.


Newcastle United v Bournemouth Pick: You had to feel that Newcastle United would have taken a win in any way possible heading into the League game with Watford last week and the three points are massive in giving the players some confidence after a really poor start to the season. The Magpies had been one of two teams who had yet to win a Premier League game before last weekend, but both they and Huddersfield Town managed that and it has lifted Newcastle United out of the bottom three.

It was a good win for Newcastle United, but no one will deny they were very fortunate Watford had left their shooting boots at home. The Hornets created a number of very good chances and Newcastle United are going to have to defend a lot better if they are going to contain Bournemouth.

The Cherries are coming in off a loss, but they created a huge amount of chances against Manchester United last weekend. Eddie Howe will be well aware that Newcastle United don't pose the same sort of attacking threat as Manchester United do and he will be doing all he can to remind his players about how well they have played to open the 2018/19 season.

Bournemouth have won their last 2 away League games emphatically and I do think they can make the long journey to the North East and cause plenty of problems for their hosts in this one. They should fashion chances and Bournemouth have shown a clinical side by scoring seven goals in their last 2 away wins at Watford and Fulham.

They have also won on their last 2 visits to St James' Park and I do favour the away side to make it a hat-trick of wins here. Bournemouth have looked stronger than Newcastle United and I think the home team will have to ride their luck in a similar manner to last week if they are going to win this game.

I will back Bournemouth on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw. Newcastle United should be a more confident team with a win under their belt, even if it was a fortunate one, and backing Bournemouth that way is a respect to the home team perhaps turning their form around.

However I think Bournemouth may have too many goals for Newcastle United and I will back the visitors here.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- an England call up this week was reward for Callum Wilson's fine start to the 2018/19 season.

Alternative: David Brooks- I like Bournemouth's chances to win at Newcastle United for a third visit in a row and David Brooks has scored in the last two away games Bournemouth have played in the League.


Southampton v Watford Pick: About the only thing you could say with any positive connotation for Southampton last weekend was they did create some very good chances against a Manchester City defence that has been tough to breach this season. They managed to score, albeit through a penalty, but a lack of composure in front of goal prevented Southampton from at least doubling their tally on the day.

The less said about the defending the better though.

Mark Hughes has a difficult week to try and keep the positive attacking intent going while making sure his team are much better defensively than they were at the Etihad Stadium. It is fair to say that Southampton won't face an attack like Manchester City's too often, but Watford created plenty of chances at Newcastle United last weekend to suggest they pose a danger.

Southampton have continued to show they can create chances, but the lack of confidence in the final third is clear to see.

The layers haven't ignored that either and that is what makes backing at least three goals to be shared out by these teams appealing to me this weekend. Watford have really shown an attacking intent and should be scoring more goals than they have away from home, while Southampton are perhaps underachieving at St Mary's.

Neither team can really point to their defence and be convinced they are going to have enough to keep a clean sheet and I do think there will be enough chances to see at least three goals shared out here. I know it is hard to really trust attacks that have not been scoring as many goals as they should be, but you can't keep missing the opportunities they are and I think both Southampton and Watford will have enough in the final third to hurt the other.

At the price I think backing at least three goals to be shared out is worth an interest.

Fantasy Star: Danny Ings- he looks the main threat for Southampton and will need to be the star for the home team.

Alternative: Jose Holebas- I have picked goals here, but you can't completely ignore the home team's struggles. Jose Holebas has also been a creative force for Watford so has potential assist and clean sheet capabilities here.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The live offering from Saturday afternoon in the Premier League sees Tottenham Hotspur play the day before any of the three teams above them take to the field. This will be seen as a big chance to put some pressure on those teams by producing yet another away victory, but it won't be easy at Selhurst Park as Arsenal found out to their cost two weeks ago.

Tottenham Hotspur will believe they are a superior team to Arsenal, especially as some of their injuries are beginning to clear up. The midfield is shorn of important players this weekend, but Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen's returns cannot be underestimated.

Jan Vertonghen's absence has been difficult to deal with for Spurs who have conceded too many goals without their defensive leader. Mauricio Pochettino has tried to change things around, but Crystal Palace will believe they can at least pose some significant questions of their own when they drive forward with the ball.

At the moment The Eagles have been lacking a little spark in the final third with the team heavily reliant on a moment of magic from Wilfried Zaha. Much of their attacking threat comes through the winger and the focus for Tottenham Hotspur will be trying to limit the damage he can do.

However I do think Crystal Palace can cause some problems for a Tottenham Hotspur team who have struggled for clean sheets of late. Hugo Lloris is back in goal and can be a key shot-stopper, but there has been a raggedness to the defending and Crystal Palace could be a real threat from set pieces in this one too.

On the other side of the field I fully expect Tottenham Hotspur to have chances of their own and Harry Kane looks to be in form with three goals over the last eight days. With both Alli and Eriksen set to start, Tottenham Hotspur have a real threat going forward and this could be another Premier League game that sees at least three goals scored this weekend.

Both teams should have the opportunities to get on the scoreboard and I don't think either will be settling for a draw until we get into the last fifteen minutes of the game. Even then I would imagine Tottenham Hotspur will be pushing forward if they need to win and both teams have shown enough in the final third to believe they can combine for three or more goals against the defences they are facing this weekend.

Fantasy Star: Christian Eriksen- Harry Kane is in form, but Christian Eriksen can be a real creative influence and has scored the winner on this ground before.

Alternative: Kieran Tripper- he is an potential creator of goals and Tottenham Hotspur could earn a clean sheet here if Crystal Palace are not at it.


Liverpool v Fulham Pick: It is hard to imagine Liverpool being as poor as they were in Belgrade when they take to the field for the early Sunday kick off and Fulham's best hope may be that the home players are perhaps not as awake as they would be for a later kick off.

That certainly feels like a long shot and I think Liverpool are going to be far too good for Fulham in this Premier League game.

Liverpool have scored four goals in their last 2 games at Anfield and they look to have found their feet at home, although there is still some room for improvement for Liverpool's attacking talents. The returns of Naby Keita, Jordan Henderson and Xherdan Shaqiri may just freshen things up enough to get the best out of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah and Fulham haven't defended anything near the level you would want if you are thinking of containing this Liverpool team.

Even the attacking side of things have been a chore for Fulham in recent games and they were pretty miserable at Huddersfield Town on Monday Night Football. A goal shy Huddersfield Town team created some good chances against Fulham, which has to be a concern when ramping up the attacking quality to Liverpool's level.

This is a big handicap for Liverpool to cover simply because they have to score at least three goals to have a chance of doing that. Defensively Liverpool have looked good enough to keep a clean sheet in this fixture as Fulham perhaps look to dig in and contain their hosts, but that is a big ask for Fulham who have conceded at least three goals in League games against Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City an Arsenal this season.

The latter two teams both won by margins of at least three goals and that is the gap Liverpool have created in their last couple of games at Anfield in all competitions. West Ham United and Southampton are two other teams who have been beaten by wide margins at Anfield already this season and I do think there will be a response from Liverpool after the hugely disappointing defeat in Belgrade.

Liverpool have beaten Fulham 4-0 in each of the last 2 games between these clubs at Anfield and it would not be a huge surprise if the same scoreline comes out of this one.

Fantasy Star: Roberto Firmino- he looks close to getting back amongst the goals and should lead the line after Daniel Sturridge fluffed his chances against Red Star during the week. Any of the front three for Liverpool could be picked though.

Alternative: Xherdan Shaqiri- Jurgen Klopp has employed a 4-2-3-1 system in the last couple of home games and Xherdan Shaqiri has been a big influence in that. Was rested on Tuesday so could be in line to start here.


Chelsea v Everton Pick: The long trip to Belarus could potentially be a problem for Chelsea as they prepare for this Premier League game on Sunday, but they had a relatively comfortable win over BATE Borisov in a game that shouldn't really have taxed the players.

Eden Hazard got an important hour into his legs as he returns from a back injury and Chelsea look to have a strong squad to pick from in this League game at Stamford Bridge.

They have been very good at home and Chelsea are scoring plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge which should be putting Everton under pressure. As well as Everton have been playing, they have been in the middle of a decent fixture list and have taken advantage of that.

Everton have been beaten at both Arsenal and Manchester United in the League and the next three away games are at Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City which will really test Marco Silva's team. They have conceded twice in the defeats at the Emirates Stadium and Old Trafford and I think Everton will find it very difficult to contain Chelsea who have scored at least three goals in 3 straight wins at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have also been very strong when hosting Everton in recent years and I do favour them to win this game. Everton could cause some problems with the way they have been playing and they did do that to Arsenal and Manchester United, while they have had a week to prepare instead of having to travel to Europe as Chelsea have had to.

It could make Everton a little more competitive for longer, but they have not travelled as well as they have played at Goodison Park. I think Chelsea will be the latest to expose the vulnerabilities of this Everton team who have conceded plenty of goals in away games and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap on Sunday.

Fantasy Star: Alvaro Morata- the Spaniard is a confidence player and has been amongst the goals, although still liable to a big miss. Chelsea should create big time chances for him though.

Alternative: Ross Barkley- not entirely convinced he starts, but would love to get one over his former club and will play up the pitch.


Arsenal v Wolves Pick: This fixture will be kicking off at the same time as the Manchester derby as Arsenal entertain Wolves and look to keep up with the top four teams in the Premier League table.

The home team are the favourites to win this fixture as they seem to be in better form than Wolves, but the latter have been really unfortunate during their 3 game losing run in the Premier League. They showed tremendous fight in the 2-3 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last weekend and Wolves arguably could have gotten a lot more from their last 2 League defeats to Brighton and Spurs.

Wolves have already played both Manchester clubs this season and avoided defeat and I think the system put out by Nuno Espirito Santo is going to give them every chance of earning something from this Premier League fixture.

It won't be easy against an Arsenal team who had been flying at home before drawing their last 2 games here in all competitions. In fact Arsenal have now drawn 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions at the end of an 11 game winning run.

Arsenal have a real attacking threat and they can quickly put things together as they have shown with quick strikes against Everton, Watford and Leicester City here. In each of those three home wins Arsenal have managed to score two goals in the space of four minutes and that is something teams have to deal with as The Gunners seem to be able to turn the screw once they score.

This Wolves team may have conceded 6 goals in their last 3 League games, but they are better than that and I don't think they will continue to produce poor defensive performances. They only conceded once in their games with both Manchester clubs and I think Wolves do have the attacking threat to challenge this Arsenal backline who have been improved in their last couple of games here.

Much will depend on how clinical Wolves are as they have created enough chances on their travels to score many more than the 3 away League goals scored so far. If they can take their chances I would be surprised if Wolves lose by more than a goal and they could even earn a surprise point.

Backing the away side with the start on the Asian Handicap is my selection here.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- the Mexican was excellent last week and can back up that performance. I fancy Wolves to get something here so backing a Wolves player to be the difference is not a surprise.

Alternative: Mesut Ozil- was rested during the week and a lot of the good Arsenal have produced tends to come through Mesut Ozil. He had scored in back to back League games at the Emirates Stadium before last weekend and will be the key if Arsenal are going to get back to winning ways.


Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: Both Manchester clubs recorded big wins in the Champions League on Wednesday, but that won't matter now as the first Manchester derby takes place on Sunday from the Etihad Stadium.

A couple of weeks ago Pep Guardiola spoke about the title contenders and it was noted that Manchester United were not mentioned, but another home loss to their rivals will mean there are only 4 points between these clubs going into the final international break of the calendar year.

The recent performances from Manchester United may not be the most encouraging for this huge test, but the results have been coming and there has been a real display of hunger and determination from the players. Second half performances at Chelsea, Bournemouth and Juventus have been improved and Manchester United have come from a goal down to win 2 of those games and draw the other.

Manchester United have now scored at least twice in 7 of their 8 away games played in all competitions in the 2018/19 season but my biggest fear is that the results have been much better than what the side have really deserved.

Chelsea, Bournemouth and Juventus all had big chances to finish off Manchester United before the fightback and this Manchester City team don't look like they are taking many prisoners at the moment.

Of course there will be some encouragement taken into this fixture from Manchester United's last 3 visits to the Etihad Stadium where they have won twice in that time. That includes coming back from 2-0 down to win 2-3 here and spoil Manchester City's planned Premier League title celebration and I think that is a result that won't have been forgotten by Pep Guardiola or the players.

It should mean Manchester City are more focused on what Manchester United are capable of if they are allowed to hang around. The recent results from United will have underlined that point to the Manchester City team and backed up by that result back in April, but it is hard to imagine a side creating as many chances as Manchester City are will allow a lead to slip for the second time in two seasons against their biggest rivals.

Much will depend on how clinical Manchester City are because Manchester United are simply not defending to a level Jose Mourinho would find acceptable. Poor finishing let down Bournemouth and Juventus when they had Manchester United on the rack, but this is a Manchester City team who have scored 12 goals in their last couple of games at home over the last eight days.

My prediction is that Manchester City are going to be too strong for Manchester United and likely win by a couple of goals on the day. I've been wrong believing Chelsea and Juventus would beat my team, and I would happily be wrong again so this is a game I simply will watch and hope United can do it.

My heart says United, but my head and all the signs are pointing Manchester City here as Manchester United can't keep getting away with some of the defensive performances they have. I really think everything will depend on how clinical Manchester City are and my feeling is that they have circled this game for some time to make a point after losing from 2-0 up on the day they could have been crowned Champions in April 2018.

It will need some luck for Manchester United to get something from this one, but at some point the fortune of Chelsea and Juventus will run out and I have a feeling that could be the case this weekend.

Fingers crossed I am wrong!

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- how weird to think Sergio Aguero has started just one of the five Manchester derby games under Pep Guardiola and had a total of 14 minutes in the two League games last season. He is very much the number one striker for Manchester City right now and has scored 8 goals against Manchester United.

Alternative: David Silva- the Spaniard has been in great form and will be key to unlocking this Manchester United defence. The erratic performances of Jose Mourinho's men could leave spaces for Silva to exploit.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (0 Units)

November Update: 12-15, - 8.66 Units (54 Units Staked, - 16.04% Yield)